Polar Motion Monitor
Eight Charts Which Prove That
Chandler's Wobble Causes Earthquakes,
Volcanism, El Nino, and Global Warming
by Michael Wells Mandeville
These eight graphs directly correlate
and demonstrate that most major tectonic activity, including earthquakes, volcanism, El
Nino, and global warming phenomenon are caused by the changing location of the poles as
the Earth wobbles back and forth slightly in what is called Chandler's Wobble. The
name for these correlations is called vortex tectonics.
The exact location of the North and
South Poles of the Earth's spin axis are constantly changing while the Earth's crust
wobbles slightly around and over the poles in the 14 month and 6.5 year cycles of
Chandler's Wobble. The eigth graphs in this story board demonstrate that peaks of seismic
and volcanic activity come and go in accordance with these rhythms of Chandler's Wobble to
produce the El Nino syndrome. The graphs also prove that the total amount of this activity
has progressively increased during the last 50 years while the center of Chandler's Wobble
has slowly drifted towards the Great Lakes. It is highly likely that this increase in
global volcanism is the cause of global warming.
1. The Anomalous Forty+ Year
Acceleration of Earthquake & Volcanic Activity
We begin with two graphs which directly and
elegantly confirm the validity of Edgar Cayce's remarkable 1930's predictions that long
range geological changes would occur after 1958 and begin to accelerate in 1998. In an effort to prove or disprove certain comments and predictions made during
the 1930s by a well known psychic, Edgar Cayce, Mandeville undertook a study of the
Earths patterns of tectonic activity during the 20th century. Since the
only data which permitted an examination of the behavior of the entire Earth were the
records of earthquakes and volcanic eruptions, these records were compiled by the author
into databases from which two primary summary charts, "Chart 101 Worldwide Trend In Seismic Activity" and "Chart
102 Worldwide Trend In Volcanism" were prepared. Both charts show a dramatic major
increase in such activity in a steady progressive upward trend over a period of at least
forty years. The increase in earthquake and volcanic activity easily seems to be at least fourfold.
Chart 101: Worldwide Trend In Seismic
This chart was carefully constructed
to provide a consistent data series since 1973 which is statistically valid. It clearly
reveals that worldwide seismic activity, defined in this chart as the number of
earthquakes of magnitude 2.5 and over, has increased by a fourfold factor.
Chart 102 Worldwide Trend In
As with Chart 101, this Chart of
world volcanism for the past 125 years was carefully constructed to provide a consistent
data series which is statistically valid. Despite biasing the numbers to diminish the
likelihood of seeing a trend, Chart 102 clearly reveals that worldwide volcanic activity
has increased by a fourfold factor. Since some of the world's most active volcanic
zones were excluded from the sample (generally because they are too remote and were not
monitored well for most of the century), this graph likely understates the increase in
Since 1992, which is the
cut-off year for this chart, volcanic activity in the volcanoes of this sample has
increased to over 15,000 activity days per year and seems to have reached a peak in 1998,
a year which Cayce had mentioned some 60 years before as a year in which global activity
of the Earth could be seen to have accelerated.
2. The Amazing Correlations Of
The Position and Motions Of The Pole With Volcanic and Earthquake Activity.
Cayce claimed in the early
1930's that "cosmic forces" in the solar sysem created earthquake and
volcanic activity. After surveying the geophysics of what might be involved,
Mandeville concluded that the likely suspects were the Sun and the Moon since these were
known to produce Chandler's Wobble. Chandler's Wobble is a constant bobbing of the
Earth as it spirals around in a small circle which takes 14 months to complete. The
circling motion varies between about 3 meters and 15 meters in a spiral which takes 6.5
years on the average.
To measure the effect
of the Sun and the Moon on earthquake activity, Mandeville first plotted the position of
the pole along the X Axis (Greenwich Meridian) as the Earth wobbled through its 6.5 year
cycle. This created a 6.5 year waveform (called the X Wave in the Primary
Axis Cycle). This waveform can
then be integrated with charts of annual earthquake and volcanic activity in various
regions of the world. Nearly everywhere, Mandeville found obvious correlations between the
position and motion of the pole with increases and decreases in earthquake and volcanic
activity. These correlations are sufficiently consistent to conclude that it
is the stresses in the Earth's crust which are directly induced by Chandlers wobble, along
with additional stresses induced by the Sun and the Moon is various syzygy alignments (as
found by many researchers throught the years),
which create the Earth's earthquakes and volcanic activity. This fact in
principle makes possible the prediction of the most probable "windows" for major
seismic activity for any area.
Chart 103: The Tempo & Rhythm In World Volcanism Compared With
The X Wave 1890-1993
Quite clearly the rhythm of
worldwide volcanic activity directly reflects the tempo of the 6.5 year X Wave. This same direct correlation can be seen when just the
activity in major arcs and groups of volcanoes is charted.
Chart 104: The Tempo & Rhythm In
Japanese Earthquakes Compared With The X Wave 1963-1999
The same patterns of correlation
with the highs and lows of the X Wave also can be seen with earthquakes in every area and
window of time. As can be seen above, seismic activity in Japan tends to peak
radically when the X Wave is low every 6.5 years. Given the immense size of the body of
the Earth, the lag times which are probably at work, the great diversity in the type and
layering of the outer strata of the Earth, and the constantly varying nature of the cycles
of the EMS (Earth-Moon-Sun) system, one should not and indeed cannot, as one looks at the
evidence, find ultra-simple correlation. But one can find, consistently, fairly clear,
reasonably strong patterns of correlation which are easily seen without fancy statistical
manipulation and despite any fancy statistical punditry of denial.
Chart 105: The Tempo & Rhythm In California Earthquakes
Compared With The X Wave 1992
After establishing that
Japans extremely active tectonic environment is highly reflective of the motions of
the Earths crust as it bobs over and around the spin axis, Mandeville decided to
zero into a much smaller time frame with a much small number of earthquakes to see if the
same "connection" with the position and location of the pole could be found. Because of the highly accurate and complete record of
earthquakes for California, Mandeville studied the outbreak of earthquakes in Southern
California during 1992 (a year during which the X Wave was low).
Chart 105 zeroes in to find more
exactly what the relationship is between Southern Californias quakes and the motion
of the Earths crust over the spin axis. Normally, the Southern California area
experiences some 10 to 20 events per week (magnitude 3.0 or more) but most of these are
deep enough so that they are not felt on the surface and thus do not appear in the news
media. In May and June of 1992, while the X Motion was at a low, Southern California began
to experience swarms of up to 100 earthquakes per day.
Chart 105 shows how precisely
this activity can be connected to the motion and position of the pole. Notice that
when the X Wave is at its very lowest, there is vitually no seismic activity in Southern
California. Almost all of the activity in the graph broke out when the position of
the pole passed through a certain zone of numbers just prior to reaching the low point, or
just after it. When the position of the pole began to rise up back through the same
zone of numbers, another outbreak occurred. A similar chart for 1998 shows the same
Chart 106: The Tempo & Rhythm Of Volcanism In Fiji With The X
Since the patterns of correlation were so
clear for small samples of earthquakes, the author began to draw charts to compare the
activity of small numbers of volcanoes in regional zones with the X Wave.
Since the spreading rift zone of the Fiji-Papua Tectonic Arc is considered by many
geologists to be the most active tectonic zone on the surface of the Earth, Chart 106 was
prepared to compare its activity with the X Wave.
Chart 106 may demonstrate one of the
most conclusive pieces of evidence about vortex tectoncs. The reflection of the X
Wave in the peaks of volcanic activity for the vast arc of South Pacific Islands which
compose the Fiji/Tonga-Papua Tectonic Arc is in nearly perfect rhythm for a substantial
portion of the 20th century. This huge arc of volcanic islands begins in the Tonga
Islands, passes through the Fiji Islands and continues easterly to parallel the northern
coast of Australia and eventually join with Papua New Guinea on its northern side. The arc
is created by the collision of the Australian Plate with the Pacific Ocean Bottom Tectonic
Plate, which Australia is over-riding.
Amazingly, the frequency of peaks in volcanic activity for this great arc of volcanoes
is even more obviously correlated to the X Wave than the composite of all volcanoes.
The pattern of volcanic activity is so similar to the undalations of the X Wave
that it appears that sharp pulsations in volcanic activity are directly induced by the
wobbling motion of the Earth's crust just as apparantly major peaks of seismic activity
are created in Japan and Southern California. No simple exact relationship in timing
exists as with the earthquake correlation, thus the exact connection is somewhat more
obscure, but it is impossible to suppose that the similar tempo of the two phenomena are
not connected. They are definitely playing the same song on the same sheet of music.
Chart 106 also shows the
same trend of increase in volcanic activity as does the composite chart for world
volcanism. In fact, the increase is rather dramatic, rising to a high level of activity
after 1970. Since 1992, the cutoff date for Chart 106, regional volcanic activity Fiji-Papua Tectonic Arc has maintained the same high level.
Has underwater volcanism
increased as well? Unfortunately underwater volcanoes are not monitored in a consistent
fashion, thus no data series can be created to accurately measure underwater volcanism.
This is a severe scientific handicap because the increase in underwater volcanism is most
likely the cause of the global warming phenomenon.
The steady increase in volcanism commenced
in the later half of the 1960s and has continued to climb since then. It is
currently at levels at least twice as high as shown in Chart 102 while the Arctic summer
ice melts for the first time in recorded history. Concern about global warming appeared in
the 1970s and this concern has increased, after several years of a major acceleration of volcanic actiivty, to all time record levels in 2000 and 2001 with
much arm waving about the melting Arctic ice pack. Scientists debate about whether global
warming is occurring and cannot explain how it is created. Climate specialists cannot find
a "theory of climate" to explain or prove it. Some data seems to prove that the
ground is heating up but not the atmosphere, accordingly some claim that humans are not to
blame, perhaps cosmic factors.
Isn't it reasonable to suppose that these
are all connected in the same truth? It is highly likely that ALL of the hot air, as it
were, as well as the water, are all connected as these charts demonstrate, directly to the
ground underfoot which is ceaselessly moving at a more rapid rate. Isn't it most
likely that underwater volcanism and heat venting has also increased by a large amount and
this increase in heat venting is causing the heating of the oceans and the various
symptoms of global warming in the weather and the biosphere?
3. The Revolutionary X Wave Correlation With El Nino
To add to the complexity of the
Fiji-Papua Tectonic Arc, a great Pacific Ocean Rift is spreading very rapidly in the area
of the South Pacific Islands of Vanuatu, which is to the northeast of the Fiji/Tonga
Islands and is somewhat north of New Zealand. This spreading rift zone is THE most
active tectonic zone on the Earth. And just a little more to the north of this area, along
the Equator, the El Nino warm water syndrome forms every few years
Since there is such a strong, close
reflection of the X Wave in this tectonic zone, how can one avoid wondering if there
could be any correlation between El Nino and the motions of the Earth's crust? Two
final charts, Charts 107 and 108, demonstrate that the great rifts on the ocean bottom in
the South Pacific are the birthing grounds of El Nino, and that collectively the spreading
rifts and hot water plumes which rise from them in many places around the Earth must be
the birthing grounds of the present regime of global warming.
Chart 107: Correlations Of Volcanic Activity With The El Nino
Chart 107 plots the El Nino years
along with the active volcano days for the Vanuatu Islands, which are about as close to
the great spreading rift zone in this part of the Pacific as one can get while still
standing on solid ground. Once again an uncanny correlation in phasing appears. Volcanic
activity increases for a couple of years, El Nino starts. If El Nino is caused by
heat released by underwater volcanoes on the Pacific Ocean bottom, exactly this sort of
pattern should be observable somewhere. How convenient that the pattern of connection
shows as close as you can get to the most active tectonic zone on the bottom of the
Pacific Ocean in the location which is closest to where the warm water begins to
accumulate along the Equator to produce El Nino. How conveniently random!
The activity of many other volcanic
groups in the Western Pacific can be plotted and compared with the El Nino years.
They all show some of the same connectivity in timing.
Chart 108: Correlations
Of The X Wave With The El Nino
Since volcanic activity in the South
Pacific seems correlated at least to some degree with the El Nino years, it is logical to
suspect that underwater volcanism could be the source of the increase in the
temperatures of the mid Pacific which is known to cause El Nino. Unfortunately underwater
volcanism is not very well monitored, especially in that part of the world. Consequently
no direct evidence can be found which specifically links the heat vents in the Pacific
Ocean bottom with the El Nino.
Nonetheless these nearby island
volcanoes on Vanuatu and Fiji are pretty good smoking guns. The close connection in the
pattern between Vanuatus volcanism and the El Nino years strongly implies that a
direct pattern of connection between El Nino years and the X Wave of Chandler's Wobble
should be seen.
Accordingly, Chart 108 was drawn up
to plot the El Nino years over the X Wave. In this chart, the full size of the
wobble (the highest and lowest points on the Greenwich Meridian) can be seen for each
year, as it spirals over and up and down the Greenwich Meridian. Each El Nino year
was plotted in a lighter grey.
The simplicity and clarity of the
pattern which is revealed is astounding. Doubtless, the El Nino phenomenon parallels the
rhythm of volcanic activity, is directly created by the 6.5 year X Wave, and it usually
commences at the same cyclical moment in the repeat upswing and downswing of the X Wave.
Accordingly, in principle, the El Nino onset periods are predictable simply by plotting
and predicting the motions of the Earth's crust as it bobs around to create the
small 6.5 year repeating spiral in the location of spin axis which is known as Chandler's
Though not shown here in charts, the
current progressive movement of the average location of the spin axis since ~1900 appears
to be causing the escalation of earthquake activity and volcanism which is creating the
much discussed "global warming" phenomenon. For unknown reasons, the
spiraling motion of the Earth's crust in Chandler's Wobble is causing a steady drift of
the center of the spiral in the direction of the Great Lakes. It has moved by some
50 feet since 1900 and this drift has been assumed to be normal. But it may not be
Since about 1950, the spiraling
motion of the Earth's crust has been moving down approximately Longitude West 90
completely out of the outer limits of its motions during 1900 and this progressive
drift may be forcing the Earth into more aggressive shape-shifting in the tropical zones.
The steady increase in tropical shape-shifting may be creating the long term
increase in the amount of earthquake and volcanic activity as in shown in Charts 101 and
For more information about the drift
of the average location of the wobble, which seems to have accelerated in 1923, 1958, and
again in 1998, see "The
Wandering Path of the Poles of the Earth (1861-2001)".
In summary, then, the cosmic factors
of the EMS (Earth-Moon-Sun) system are creating changes in the location and motion of the
spin axis sufficiently to force a major new trend in the shape shifting of the
Earths crust in the tropical zones. This shape shifting is pulsed in the
frequency of the 6.5 year X Wave and it has directly induced a huge increase (possibly a
fourfold increase) in the release of the Earths interior heat into the bottoms
of the oceans during the past 50 years, most especially in the Pacific. Accordingly,
then, the X Wave is causing El Nino and the progressively accelerating drift or shift in
the location of the pole is inducing the release of a steadily increasing amount of heat
with each El Nino, thusly increasing the severity of each cycle while accumulating as the
trend which has come to be known as global warming.
It really is that simple.
Unlike all other theories of Earth dynamics and global change, these truths are
non-theoretical, are completely free of fancy mathematical sophistry, are strictly
observation driven, and can always be found to be consistant with all of the data.