You have heard of the Weather Report? Here exclusively is this week’s "Earth Report" - a short review of the “big picture” about how the dynamic changes in the Sun and the Earth are effecting our lives more and more intensely, with the latest prognostications and predictions for weathermen, farmers, investors, businessmen, and every man.

This update is keyed to the Earth Changes 2003 Almanac Calendar. The framework for understanding these updates and much of the current status information is maintained in capsule form in the Almanac at the locations cited in the text of this Update.

On the geophysical front, the Tectonic Gods are still rumbling even though the weather begins to normalize for the next week or so. MAJOR OUTBREAK OF SEISMIC ACTIVITY IN NORTH AMERICA IS ESPECIALLY MORE PROBABLE THAN NOT DURING THE NEXT FIVE DAYS, especially along the Baja Plate Margin through to Santa Barbara.

For the geopolitical front, the shell game continues to become more and more lucidly clear. It is amazing what you find out when you are patient enough to let it all hang itself out to dry. Amazingly, Bush no longer even pretends to say anything about anything real to real people. He just keeps popping up in totally fake, staged events in various cities which the Media Sorcerer’s obligingly televise, where he reads his succession of business card sized “sound bites” of buzz words for each one of which his stage managers dutifully work up an applause. After these totally mind-numbing boring events, Bush can be seen glowing energetically and with great enthusiasm marching to his next fake stage while “reporters” deliver a fake news story about his phony trip. Is it the Prozac? Meanwhile, both domestically and internationally, the U.S. is clearly outclassed without sufficient intellectual acumen in command of institutions to regain control of the U.S. economy nor exercise governance over Iraq. Meanwhile Congress is almost totally stalemated by a widespread refusal of democrats to cooperate with Republicans. Most of the world is tacitly questioning the competence of American leadership and soon the problem will even begin to occur to some portions of the Broadcast Media.
_____________________________________________________________________
Program Thesis: What are we trying to do with the Earth Changes Bulletin?

Most news media do not handle technical and scientific subjects like geology and earth sciences very well. They don't understand the causes and effects of activities in the Sun and Earth. Accordingly, they often do not understand if, when, how, why to report earthquakes, volcanic activity, global warming effects The treatment often sounds absent-minded, poorly qualified, and frequently contains various technical errors. Seldom is the treatment entertaining and genuinely educational.

Based on new scientific principles which have emerged during the past thirty years, many of the dynamic activities of the Sun and Earth can be linked together to see how a range of effects are linked together. This makes it possible to paint "the big picture" into a perspective which explains many diverse events and processes, especially climate and weather patterns such as global warming and El Nino. From the "big picture", long range predictions can be made for weeks and even months ahead.

The result is sophisticated cutting-edge information which is objective, balanced, astute, relevant, and can be easily seen and appreciated by lay audiences. The perspective is generally global, seldom parochial.

For the framework of concepts, terms, and current conditions which are used or described in the these Bulletins, see the Earth Changes 2003 Almanac Calendar.

To see the internet resources which are used to prepare this Update, take a look at the Earth Monitor front page
http://www.michaelmandeville.com/earthmonitor
If anyone has any suggestions about evolving these pages, now is a good time as I devote a few minutes each day to revising menus and adding new links.


HOUSEKEEPING:

We are still off the air but Mitch Battros just posted the archive file for his interview with me last week for his Earth Changes TV netcasts

Check out the archive at

http://www.earthchangestv.net/Audio/MichaelMandeville05703.mp3

POLAR MOTION
What is happening to the motion of the Earth.

Steady as she goes.

AS PREVIOUSLY REPORTED WEEK: Despite many alarm bells being passed by psychics, there is not even a hint at the moment in the actual motion of the pole to suggest that there is going to be a sudden shifting in the poles next month (May) or some time later in this year.

FOR NEWBIES: for the basic forecast, logic, and precursor signals of the next avalanche of the crust (pole shift), should check out:

http://www.michaelmandeville.com/earthmonitor/ecbulletins/
ecbulletin_April30_2003.htm
watch the wrap of URLs onto a second line - any segment which dangles on a second line must be copied manually into the browser after clicking on the first line.

REPEATED: PRELIMINARY FIGURE FOR RECENT DISPLACEMENT: This is a preliminary indication which needs more work: the average location of the pole appears to have shifted possibly as much as 91.1 inches or 231.5 centimeters since the beginning of 1996. That implies an average rate of shifting of the poles since 1996 of 13 inches/yr. or 33 centimeters/year. This rate is substantially higher than it has been during most of the 20th century. What the rate of acceleration may be I cannot determine at the current time. Is the crust of the Earth currently slipping over the molten mantle at a faster rate? Probably yes.

To see the current graph of polar motion, see
http://www.michaelmandeville.com/earthmonitor/topten_monitor.htm
Scroll down the page until you get to the black and white graphs with show the x and y coordinates of the North Spin Axis on two separate graphs.

For additional current details: see http://www.michaelmandeville.com/ebooks/calendar2003/currentconditions.htm#polarmotion

FOR NEWBIES: The vortex tectonics paradigm of the earth holds that polar motion in the 6.5 year wobble cycle (Chandler’s) creates the major stress in the Earth’s crust which is released by lunar tidal forces each month in the form of earthquakes and volcanism. The acceleration in the motion of the drift of the poles and its relocation forces an increasing tempo in the shape shifting of the Equatorial zone, where 70% of tectonic activity occurs. Accordingly, earthquakes and volcanic activity should increase in frequency and magnitude.

PLANETS (all time coordinates here and elsewhere are in UTC unless otherwise noted)

The Moon this day is in its South Node (south of the Earth’s Equator) and is now entering the Full Moon Syzygy Window to reach Fullness in North America (EDT) on the evening of May 16th, preceded 11 hours earlier by Perigee on May 17th. The next New Moon will be on May 28 with Apogee preceding it by about three days. (Perigee = the Moon’s closest approach to the Earth during its monthly orbit which increases gravitational influence of the Moon by as much as 15%; Apogee = the Moon’s greatest distance from the Earth during its monthly orbit).

NASA INFORMS ON THIS WEEK’S LUNAR ECLIPSE: “This week the full moon will glide through Earth's shadow and turn a lovely shade of sunset-red; it's the first lunar eclipse of 2003. When to look: Thursday night, May 15th, if you live in North or South America; Friday morning May 16th, if you live in Europe. Follow the links below for more information. The eclipse begins at 10:00 p.m. EDT (7:00 p.m. PDT) on Thursday evening, May 15th, or 0200 Universal Time (UT) on Friday morning, May 16th.”

Should be great viewing in North America anywhere West of the Mississippi.
Check out more info about the eclipse

ERROR NOTICE CORRECTION IN THE EARTH CHANGES ALMANAC:
The May 24 planetary alignment is described as Mercury | Venus. It should be Mercury | Mars. Sorry about that. That is why news companies hire “fact checkers” to double check everything. Sigh. The Online Almanac Calendar page has been corrected.

Anyway, now you know the next planetary alignment in the Earth Changes Almanac is Mercury | Mars, listed on May 24. (As previously noted, it is apparent that the Home Software dating method I used for manually calculating this alignment in the Almanac was off by about four days. This means that all of the dates for alignments on Earth Changes Almanac may be off by up to this amount until I fix them.)

The next significant planetary alignment is June 30 when Mercury | Venus. This should produce high sunspot counts. In the meantime Mercury will have fleeting alignments with Neptune and Uranus, on June 4 and June 10 respectively. Neither of these alignments should be productive of high sunspot counts but minor spikes of perhaps 50 or so may be observed.

See Earth Changes 2003 Almanac Calendar for additional details
http://www.michaelmandeville.com/ebooks/calendar2003/
The Almanac lays out the planets and the lunar phases for entire year in advance to allow you to find the best and worst periods of weather, earthquake activity, ethereal “lunar” influences, etc.

PLANET WATCHING:

Nibiru is nowhere in sight. All predictions of Planet X and Nibiru have failed
Full Article: http://www.earthchangestv.com/
breaking/July2002/28sunspots.htm
(watch the word wrap of this and other URLs, you may have to paste part of it into your browser manually)

Mars: You may now be able to see this at dawn

SUNSPOTS
The events in the solar atmosphere which impact weather and climate patterns, the magnetic field and auroras, including forecasts for the week, month, and year ahead.

THE QUAKES THIS WEEK ARE AWESOME BUT THE SPOTS ARE WAY DOWN

Sunspots were still at 175 on May 4 during the double-header planetary alignments. The numbers dropped very steeply over a few days all the way down to 21 on May 10. On May 13, yesterday, they had risen again sharply to about 60 and may have risen again today. Solar Flux bottomed at about 91 three days ago and is rising again. Yesterday the Flux was about 96 and still rising.

This augers another rising spike of sunspots for the Mercury | Mars alignment approximately May 24. The alignment on this date will not be as strong as indicated in previous weeks because of the error I made in identifying it as a Mercury | Venus alignment. But it will still be a good sized spike, no doubt well above 100, perhaps as high as 150. The count should rise over the next few days to reach its peak, hold for three or so days, and then drop again suddenly to perhaps a new low of 10.

Sunspots should remain low until the Mercury | Venus at the end of June, with perhaps a couple of minor peaks in June for Mercury’s alignments with Neptune and Uranus.

THAT SHOULD MEAN, IN HUGE CONTRAST TO EARLY MAY, THAT MOST OF JUNE’S WEATHER SHOULD BE MILDLY NORMAL. Oh what a relief!

NEWBIES: for a discussion of what has been learned with the planetary alignments producing high sunspot counts and solar storms and these in turn creating major storm activity in the Earth’s atmosphere, tune into this Sunspot Section in the last Earth Changes Bulletin Update:
http://www.michaelmandeville.com/earthmonitor/ecbulletins/
ecbulletin_April30_2003.htm
watch the possible wrap of URLs onto a second line - any segment which dangles on a second line must be copied manually into the browser after clicking on the first line.

Over all, the sunspot average count for February was 46.4 and for March it rose to 61.5. The number for April was 60.

As of this moment, the Solar Wind Speed is VERY highly robust 738.7 km/s but at this hour (about 2 pm, AZ time) it is pushing only a modest density of 1.4 protons/cm. Don’t be fooled by this modest density, this is only an hourly reading and the Fluxgate Charts have been bouncing off the top and the bottom lines with huge disturbance wavefronts during the past 24 hours. At least five major spikes were recorded, and each of these was probably accompanied by a major fluctuation in the speed and density of the solar wind.

NASA SOLAR STORM REPORTS
NASA once again today is tepidly predicting small probabilities of solar storms and flares, less than 35% probabilities. Tell that to the Fluxgate Monitor at the U of Alaska which showed five severe magnetic disturbances in the Earth’s Atmosphere during the last 24 hours from the coronal holes which are blasting the Earth with very petulant solar winds. Since more coronal holes are lining up with the Earth, such spritzy activity is likely to continue.

NASA’S AURORA OUTLOOK: “Earth is inside a high-speed solar wind stream that could trigger more auroras tonight. The best observing sites will be at high latitudes: e.g., the southern regions of New Zealand and Australia, northern Europe, Canada, Alaska and northern US states such as Michigan and Wisconsin.”

Would you like NASA to call you when auroras appear over your hometown? Sign up for SpaceWeather PHONE.. See http://spaceweatherphone.com/ for more details

Jan Alvestad reports: “A huge recurrent coronal hole (CH38) in the southern hemisphere was in a geoeffective position on May 2-10. A small recurrent coronal hole (CH39) in the northern hemisphere will rotate into a geoeffective position on May 15, CH39 has decreased in size over the last rotation. A small recurrent coronal hole (CH40) in the southern hemisphere will rotate into a geoeffective position on May 15.”

Jan Alvestad predicts: “The geomagnetic field is expected to be unsettled to minor storm on May 14 and quiet to active May 15-16. High speed streams from coronal holes CH39 and CH40 could reach Earth on May 18 and cause unsettled to active geomagnetic conditions that day and on May 19.”
See http://www.dxlc.com/solar/

PREDICTED LAST WEEK AND CONFIRMED: EXPECT THE SAME (chaotic stormy weather), ONLY THE STORMS WILL BE MUCH BIGGER. Freakish sudden storms are likely. Winds and precipitation may continue to set records in various areas.

DID WE CALL THAT OR NOT?

PREDICTION FOR THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS: ONCE AGAIN, LITTLE DOUBT THAT solar influences on the Earth’s atmosphere will remain petulant for the next several days. As last week, there may be stormy, tricky, unpredictable sudden fluctuations in the weather in some areas. BUT, the weather should be considerably less extreme for the next seven days than it was during the past seven days. The weather in fact is lulling out right now, the atmosphere is losing energy rapidly and so the next three days will be mostly quiescent.

The water flow up the Mogollon Rim, in the form of huge thick cloud layers from Pacific Ocean air, is pretty phenomenal right now. The air is very heavy with the moisture and it is barely moving. But there appears to be just enough energy in the atmosphere to push the moisture into the higher elevations and latitudes. Expect a lot of rain in the higher elevations and Rocky Mountains of western North America. (Sure wish it would drop about three inches here in Black Canyon City to finish off a wonderful Spring, but I don’t think it will drop here).

To follow these numbers, view the Solar Cycle 23 Chart at
http://www.michaelmandeville.com/earthmonitor/topten_monitor.htm

GLOBAL DROUGHT AND FLOOD WATCH
Stories and assessments about drought and flood conditions around the world; global information which provides the ability to assess the impacts to agriculture and the natural environment.

For additional details, see
http://www.michaelmandeville.com/ebooks/calendar2003

EL NINO WATCH:

AS PREVIOUSLY PREDICTED: There may be a La Nina during the later part of 2003 and through part of 2004, but it is likely that it will be barely noticeable because of the accumulated “Global Warming” and the relatively high levels of volcanic heat venting in the Earth. The next El Nino is likely to appear in 2005 or 2006.

CHEMTRAILS
See http://www.deepspace4.com/pages/main/pagemain.htm

See the post I am sending separately on:

Chemtrails and “The Secret Life of Plants”

EARTHQUAKES
Around the world to see the current and potential patterns of seismic activity, with coverage of the windows of danger. I prepared this section by pulling out the Earth Changes 2003 Calendar which has everything plotted on it. You should too. Check out the Almanac as well, it discusses all of the windows for the year and even spotlights the two most dangerous windows.

HEADS UP IN GENERAL. I forecasted a major increase of seismic activity for a Full Moon Syzygy during the first five months of this year. So far the prediction has failed and in fact some of the New Moon Syzygy Windows have been more active. Quite embarrassing if you are trying to create a consistency in making predictions from certain principles you previously thought were reliable.

NOW DURING THE NEXT FIVE DAYS, this prediction may be partially fulfilled. It now “feels” right, with lots of objective events affirming, plus psychic impressions of dramatic things, that we are going to see some heavy quake activity.

RECENT EVENTS OF INTEREST THIS PAST FEW DAYS

The prior week’s six quakes 6.0 plus magnitude – a high number – has been followed during this last week (since May 7) with another three quakes 6.0 and above.

And that number may be revised upward as a result of yesterday’s activity. The quake databases for yesterday are not consistent and it “appears” as of this afternoon that there may have been up to two more huge quakes in the South Pacific. At the moment, those who manage this data are likely trying to determine what signals from what stations are duplicates and what ones are not.

One 6.6 quake struck the Mid Atlantic Rise due east of the Antilles very near the Eastern margin of the Carob Plate.

One 6.3 quake struck the Northeastern edge of the Antarctic Plate near the Vanuatu Islands.

And another 6.3 quake struck an edge of the Antarctic Plate near where it grinds the African Plate. A 6.0 plus quake struck this same general region last month.

All of these quakes were deep at sea. None of these were apparently damaging, but the 6.6 quake East of the Antilles is too new as of this post to know for certain if Tsunami waves were generated.

Magnitude 6.6 NORTH ATLANTIC OCEAN
http://neic.usgs.gov/neis/bulletin/neic_tuag.html
2003 May 14 06:03:36 UTC
Preliminary Earthquake Report
U.S. Geological Survey, National Earthquake Information Center
World Data Center for Seismology, Denver
Magnitude 6.6
Location 18.25N 58.66W
Depth 40.1 kilometers
Region NORTH ATLANTIC OCEAN
Reference
Source USGS NEIC

Magnitude 6.3 VANUATU ISLANDS
http://neic.usgs.gov/neis/bulletin/neic_ttbl.html
2003 May 13 21:21:13 UTC
Preliminary Earthquake Report
U.S. Geological Survey, National Earthquake Information Center
World Data Center for Seismology, Denver
Magnitude 6.3
Date-Time
Location 17.40S 167.66E
Depth 33.0 kilometers
Region VANUATU ISLANDS
Reference
Source USGS NEIC

Magnitude 6.3 PRINCE EDWARD ISLANDS REGION
2003 May 09 20:26:15 UTC
Preliminary Earthquake Report
U.S. Geological Survey, National Earthquake Information Center
World Data Center for Seismology, Denver
Magnitude 6.3
Date-Time Friday, May 09, 2003 at 20:26:15 (UTC) - Coordinated Universal Time
Friday, May 09, 2003 at 10:26:15 PM local time at epicenter
Time of Earthquake in other Time Zones
http://neic.usgs.gov/neis/bulletin/neic_tpbh.html
Location 48.08S 32.15E
Depth 10.0 kilometers
Region PRINCE EDWARD ISLANDS REGION
Reference 440 km (275 miles) WSW of Marion Island, Prince Edward Islands
2025 km (1260 miles) S of Durban, South Africa

The largest crop of quakes for the past seven days, counting from today backwards, was May 8, about 16 quakes 2.5 and above and nearly that number the following day.
All other days were quite muted in frequency even though several 6.0 plus quakes definitely elevated over all magnitude. The over all frequency is in keeping with the syzygy pattern and the large quakes of the past two days also are coming in within the syzygy pattern.

Most of the quake activity was in Eurasia, running through the Medit-Himalaya Belt and through the Western and Southern portions of the Pacific Rim of Fire. Relatively little in the Americas,

SO HEADS UP IN THE AMERICAS FOR A SUDDEN INCREASE THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

Japan was struck three times the past few days just 20 miles North of Tokyo with a 4.6 and two 5.0’s. That must have a lot of people thinking about quakes. The next few days is the danger zone.

The Papua-Fiji Tectonic Arc was quite active with many quakes along the top edge of the Australian Plate. Perhaps these mirror Cayce’s “upheavals” in the arctic zones which occurred in the prior week.

A 4.6 quake in Jan Mayan (volcanic island in the Arctic) and the 6.7 quake along the edge of Antarctic Plate south of Africa give us some new “upheavals” and more action to look for in the tropics.

This mirror is now sufficiently apparent that someone needs to spend a week graphing the seismic activity in these zones for the past 70 years to draw out the relationships in more objective terms.

CAYCE VOLCANISM WATCH: Do these quakes fit the Cayce equation? (Cayce equation: upheavals in arctic/antarctic zones =>creates volcanism in equatorial zones). Maybe they fit. The prior three weeks gave us several fairly large quakes along the edge of the Antarctic Tectonic Plate. Now here is a possible rebound close to the equatorial zone. These quakes may indicate an upsurge in underwater volcanism in the South Pacific. (And quite possibly an increase in the outflow of hot water into the ocean). We will continue once again during the next couple of weeks to watch closely for world volcanism to increase to mirror Cayce’s linkage of upheavals in the frigid zones with an increase in volcanism in the torrid zones.

To see the world quake chart by the USGS, click on
http://neic.usgs.gov/neis/current/

The USGS charts (such charts show all quakes 1.0 and above) for the U.S. and Alaska show 241 quakes for the past seven days (which is down as it should from last week’s 305) with the USGS chart for California/Nevada showing 171 of these in California during the past seven days (which is down from last week’s 219 as should be). Next weeks quake activity in these areas should be up considerably for the Full Moon Syzygy.

HEADS UP SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA.
The overwhelming bulk of U.S. and Alaskan quakes 1.0 plus were in California and the main center of gravity was the Baja Plate Margin running up the delta of the Colorado River through Indio and Riverside and along the escarpment with the San Bernardino Mountains and out to sea between Santa Monica and Santa Barbara

Given the strong seismic activity in the ocean rifts, especially against the Carib Plate, as we head into this Full Moon Syzygy Window, there is higher than normal probability of strong motion in the Baja Plate and its associated faults through Southern California. If there is going to be a major 5.0 plus quake in Southern California for the first six months of this year, it is most likely to occur during the next five days.

ESPECIALLY IMPORTANT THIS FULL MOON:
Remember the costa nostra damus prediction: Full Moon watch on Colima – Popo – Coos Bay – San Andreas

The USGS Chart of Yellowstone Cauldera Area shows 18 microquakes during the last week (up contrarian from 17 last week) and 39 quakes scattered throughout Utah
(up contrarian from 31 last week).

Hood had no new microquakes and the USGS chart for Long Valley Cauldera (Area) showed a running total of 8 (same as last week). The USGS Chart for the Pacific Northwest reveals 39 quakes (two week sum, down as should be from 49 microquakes last week) most of them widely scattered through Washington State.

VOLCANOES
Around the world with the most interesting and relevant volcano stories; briefs on the likely eruptions as well as coverage of on-going activity.

El Popo offered a 7 puff day yesterday, down from last Wednesday. Centrapred reports for May 14 (16:00 GMT) that “In the last 24 hours 7 low-intensity exhalations accompanied by steam and gas emissions were recorded through the Popocatépetl volcano monitoring system. In addition, isolated episodes of tremor were recorded accumulating less than 1 hour. The other monitored parameters remain without important changes. At the moment of this report we can see the volcano with a light emission of steam and gas . The analysis of the activity recorded in the last days leads to the following probable scenarios: 1. The current process ends without consequences
2. Explosions, similar to those observed in the last few months may eject incandescent debris to a distance up to 4 km from the crater. 3. Pyroclastic flows, similar to those observed on January 22, 2001 may occur. They could flow to the East and Northeast sectors of the volcano, although other sectors may be as well affected. ”

Following on last week’s slight uptick, volcanic activity worldwide this past seven days may be up even more. The Southwest Volcano Centre reports 39 volcanoes on the alert status list (one up from last week), 4 volcanoes on the restless list (same as last week), and 25 on the active eruption list (one up from last week).

CAYCE VOLCANISM WATCH: Does this activity fit the Cayce equation? (Cayce equation: upheavals in arctic/antarctic zones =>creates volcanism in equatorial zones).

The correlation is getting a little warmer. It should not be surprising that the volcanoes are lagging in time, after all there is IMMENSE INERTIA to overcome in the Earth. It takes a long time for heat in the volcanoes to rise up through the vents. The steam and gases may have to build pressure for weeks and months to break the hardened rock and create the cracks for new flows of lava.

The prior three weeks gave us several fairly large quakes along the edge of the Antarctic Tectonic Plate. These are still continuing. For the last two weeks the rebound in volcanism is slowly getting noticeable. Since about 70 percent of the volcanism is in the tropical zone, it is likely that the uptick in activity fits Cayce’s mechanism.

I am encouraged enough by now to believe that this is worthy of some major activity to construct the delimited databases and graph interfaces to prove up the connection. We will continue once again during the next couple of weeks to watch closely for world volcanism to increase to mirror Cayce’s linkage of upheavals in the frigid zones with an increase in volcanism in the torrid zones.

ECONOMIC WATCH

AS PREVIOUSLY PREDICTED: It is doubtful that any economic recovery will begin to be felt until later in the year, probably not until Fall of 2003. BUT, more and more Bull tracks and cowpies can be spotted. Many sources are indicating that signs of recovery are cropping up everywhere. At the moment the bulls are making more noise than bears in all the media.

DITECH.COM ARBITRAGER:
Their TV ad rates were down from the last week’s: from 5.25 and 5.55 to 5.125 and 5.444 as of today for short and long term rates.

This could be a contrarian signal, suggesting that the economy is even softer, or it could mean they are scrapping the bottom of the barrel with a lot more competition. I now get five to 10 email spams per day from low cost mortgage brokers. For some reason, maybe because I started this Economy Watch, they all think I am interested in mortgages.

EURO WATCH
Here is the two year chart for the value of the dollar vis a vis the Euro
http://finance.yahoo.com/m5?s=USD&t=EUR&a=1&c=2
In Mid November 2001, the dollar could purchase about Euro 1.18
In May 2002, the dollar could purchase about Euro 1.10.
During the past two months, the dollar could purchase about Euro .91 to.93
Three weeks ago, the dollar could purchase about Euro .91
Two weeks ago, the dollar could purchase about Euro .8946
Last week the dollar can purchase about Euro .888
Today the dollar can purchase about Euro .8745

In other words, the Dollar on average appears to be continuing a 24 month slide and it clearly is losing about a penny per week the past three weeks.

PUT YOUR EAR TO THE MONITOR. THIS IS THE GIANT SUCKING SOUND OF VALUE BEING REMOVED FROM THE AMERICAN ECONOMY. It is going to keep going and may end up in the range of .70 sometime this year.

AS REPORTED: This now appears to be a deliberate policy of the U.S. military industrial complex to stimulate demand for American goods in Europe and Asia. This is one of the ways in which the Imperial Faction is going to tax Europe to inadvertently pay for a part of the invasion of Iraq.

I believe that it is well worth buying euros now.

AS REPORTED LAST WEEK: With control of Iraq’s oil, and no doubt the thirst of the Iraqi’s for some serious income, it will be easy for American institutions to cause a major surplus of oil production on the world market, forcing oil to be cheap in terms of dollars. By forcing the Euro to be expensive in terms of dollars, Europe will have dirt cheap energy but it will not be able to export nearly as much manufactured goods as they might want to export. But this will be a boon to American exporters because the cost of their goods will be cheaper and exports to Europe should boom. This should also be a boon to tourism. European tourism in North America should increase substantially during 2004. It gets really interesting if they force another 20 per cent differential in values between Europe and America. China will begin to become squeezed and a good portion of the balance of payments problem will begin to dry up. And Europeans will be in the Americas spending their money on everything in sight. This should also slow down China Walmart Inc. Chinese goods will get more expensive, but probably only marginally so for the next couple of years.

GENERAL PREDICTION DJI AVERAGES: Conditions remain unstable but Bull energy IS GATHERING STRENGTH despite bad economic signals and the upsurge of terrorism this past two days,

AS PREDICTED LAST WEEK: The DJI gained 500 points during April with many 200 point mood swings to close April 30 at 8,502. We can probably expect similar growth during May and June. By the time the Dog Days set in the DJI may be up in the range of 9200, plus or minus 300, BUT this is proviso because of the fragility of both the economy and international politics. Strong negatives in the news could depress these numbers and keep the DJI under 9000. Eventually this number will flatten during July and August and will then continue to inch up during the Fall. By the end of the year, the DJI may be pushing 9500-10,000, but only if jobs are being created and retailers are reporting a decent year end sales season.

AS FOR THE LAST SEVERAL WEEKS, LAST WEEK’S CLOSING DJI PREDICTION HIT THE MARK, IF A LITTLE HIGH: “Stocks will rally slowly upward and may close 8500, plus or minus 200. Condition prediction with the above General Prediction.” IN FACT, the market closed the week at 8,604, up only 22 from the close of the previous week.


I AM LETTING THESE PREDICTIONS RIDE AGAIN FOR NEXT WEEK BUT I AM SETTING THE BAR UP TO 8600, plus or minus 200. Expect to see a gradual inching up, not inching down.

EXPECT TO SEE OSAMA AND THE BOYS UNHINGE NEW YORK SERIOUSLY DURING THIS NEXT LUNAR CYCLE, MAYHAPS THE NEXT FIVE DAYS.

You can practically smell the explosions already.

AS PREVIOUSLY STATED: Beyond 9000, the market cannot remain until a real turn around is evident in the U.S. economy. So far we are empty-handed in this department.
Any major adverse result in the American War On Iraq will see sudden downturns for one to a few days BUT THESE ARE GOING TO BE INCREASINGLY UNLIKELY.

AS PREVIOUSLY PREDICTED: The easy success in Iraq and the increasing acceptance of the Iraqi people, along with a huge $80 billion short term spending bill for the Pentagon and Homeland Defense, plus the likelihood of huge Iraq reconstruction bonds and contracts to be let out in the next few months, all auger for confidence in the coming of an expansion of the U.S. economy and an upsurge in stock values. By May there may be enough apparent buoyancy to consider a buying strategy for the next two to three years. I would wait, however, and let things firm up a bit during the summer. Then scoop up what you want to buy in late August, before Labor Day.

MAJOR ADVERSE CONTINGENCIES:

SARS - The SARS virus may disrupt even more air travel enough to cause another depressive wave to flow through the economy, which will send the stock market south by a long ways. If so, ALL BETS are off. This nasty downward economic spiral could continue and induce another huge depressionary wave.

Conditions in Iraq
U.S. Diplomacy
Price of Oil
Osama Bin Laden and Al Qaeda
Palestinian Peace Process

HEALTH WATCH

SARS SITUATION appears to be dwindling. Some areas, like Toronto and Hong Kong, and come companies, like airline companies and tourism, have been economically drug down by the panic but the general economy probably has not been seriously impacted.

I never got around to sending you some composite files of material sent by subscribers. I thank all of you for the material which was sent but I am not going to forward it at the moment unless the situation panics up again. We are going to wonder for quite a while about SARS and the panic around it. THINGS STILL DO NOT ADD UP STRAIGHTFORWARDLY. I think there were too many sub rosa institutional agendas at play to “get it” easily. This is not a matter of conspiracy paranoia, I don’t think that at all, but I do know that the real story of the real deal has not yet been fully told.

GEO-POLITICAL WATCH
How are the sunspots likely to most effect human affairs during the weeks and months ahead?

The more events unfold in Iraq the more it is really clear that the entire escapade is primarily a jingoistic play for oil, big money, petrodollar backing, and empire.

This is, as the Mayor of London bravely observed this week, WITHOUT DOUBT THE MOST CRAVENLY CORRUPT PRESIDENTIAL ADMINISTRATION SINCE THE WYOMING OIL SCAMS UNDER PRESIDENT HARDING (A REPUBLICAN OF COURSE) during the 1920’s.

The way in which billion dollar contracts are being given out by “special invitations” to the big oil and Texas connected companies which have virtually taken over the Republican party is already making such an obvious stench that even Republicans (the legions who not in the play) are embarrassed. The ‘its about oil” hypothesis seems to be gathering more and more evidence as the Imperial Faction makes more and more decisions about the carcass of Iraq. More and more the word being put out on the street by governmental officials is that this is going to be a long occupation. But, Bush and the Imperial Faction are merely blowing smoke when they talk about democracy, freedom, and civil rights in Iraq.

On the ground in Iraq,

THERE IS NO ONE WITH AN OUNCE OF VISION ABOUT WHAT TO DO NOR HOW TO DO IT to reestablish a civilized society. The vaunted U.S. Military does not even know how to re-establish order and stop the looting, burning, and growing anarchy. They obviously are in the embarrassing condition of being able only to mainly occupy certain key places and spaces. Beyond that, they don’t know what they are doing.

Check this out which comes to us from the Hightower Lowdown:
www.jimhightower.com

AS SEEN ON TV

“You’ve seen it run and rerun on all the networks: Iraqi’s gathering in a Baghdad square to cheer as Saddam’s statue was toppled. Back in Washington, Rumsfeld solemnly told reporters that the event was comparable to 1989, when hundreds of thousands of Germans tore down the Berlin Wall, a line the media still parrots today.

But it was pure Pentagon propaganda. Instead of hordes of Iraqi’s, no more than 150 were in the square. Pentagon media handlers kept the cameras focused tightly, so it would appear like a massive crowd. (Credit where credit is due: ABC’s Nightline did pull its cameras back to show the embarrassingly sparse turnout.)

But even these 150 “demonstrators” were mostly militiamen from the anti-Saddam Iraqi National Congress – a political front group for Ahmed Chalabi, the BANKER who is Bush’s handpicked choice to be Iraq’s new president. THE PENTAGON HAD FLOWN THEM INTO BAGHDAD to perform for the cameras as grateful Iraqi’s.

And while TV anchors and pundits back here gushed about the joy of seeing the Iraqi’s yank down Saddam’s statue, it was not the Iraqi’s who did the yanking, but U.S. Marines. They too, had been brought to the square for the Pentagon’s staged photo opportunity. Also unreported was that some of the Iraqi demonstrators who appeared to be cheering the U.S. invasion actually were saying in Arabic, “Screw Bush! ”

In a lot of ways this story is the metaphor for this entire sham. When the history is written of this era, the Big Mass Broadcast Media is going to be seen as part and parcel of the webby weave of influence peddling and manipulation which misled Americans down a shabby path of second-rate imperial bullying.

THE SAVING GRACE REMAINS AS STATED LAST WEEK: It appears that events in Iraq are stabilizing and will require such a large armed U.S. force to impose the “Pax” that it is unlikely that the U.S. Military can expand Imperial adventurism in the Middle East. It is probably unlikely that any military moves will be made against the “Axis of Evil” countries this year or next. (At the moment, the “power greed” of the Imperial Faction is working in our favor. They have bitten off as much as they can possibly chew and they will be busy for quite a spell.)

SIGN OF THE TIMES: it looks like, America’s hot adventure “reality” show, “The Empire Strikes Back” HAS successfully keep much of the corporate scandals under the rug. Ken Lay, just a good ole boy Texan, the Presiding Officer of the rape of California Consumers, otherwise known as Enron, is still scott free with his crooked billions…None of the indicted crooks are in jail. ARE YOU SURPRISED?

SIGN OF THE TIMES II: We still have ABSOLUTELY NO IDEA HOW MANY PEOPLE WERE KILLED AND INJURED IN IRAQ. Did you even notice?

SIGN OF THE TIMES III: We still have ABSOLUTELY NO EVIDENCE THAT SADDAM HUSSEIN HAD WEAPONS OF MASS DESTRUCTION. Are you holding your breath?

Let’s get this straight. The first tab was several tens of thousands of dead Iraqi military and civilians, which nobody is going to fess up to.

The second tab is going to be some $60 billion dollars of supplemental defense spending, and some $2 billion per month for the next 1, 2, 3, 5, 10 years…..nobody knows?

This and much more to get rid of Saddam Hussein, whom all the King’s Men and all the King’s Horses cannot find, who is linked with Osama Bin Laden, whom all the King’s Men and all the King’s Horses cannot find, and destroy the mean and wicked nasty weapons of mass destruction which posed a grave threat, whom all the King’s Men and all the King’s Horses cannot find. Meanwhile all the King’s Men and King’s Horses stand around in Iraq lamenting about their inability to stop gunfire, looting, and arsen while the Iraqi population strips their communist property bare of all value shouting Screw You Bush! or Americans get out!

This is what the Jews mean when they say in yiddish Gevaldt! to signify a calamitous situation which threatens the very foundations of sanity – a catastrophe so absurdly irrational it couldn’t be imagined in a thousand years.

It is going to become an interesting political season. It will probably be the most memorable since the late 1960’s. Never in anyone’s living memory has such astonishing levels of personal and institutional incompetence flooded our country. Both real conservatives and the liberal left are more steamed up to engage in aggressive political warfare than has been seen in a generation. The “I” word will become one the biggest and bitterest of the controversies.

The I word? Incompetence. We have a President who leads a coterie of managers who are so incompetent and cravenly manipulated by grandiose but narrow special interests with very little historical perspective, that Bush and Company are nearly single handedly destabilizing the U.S. into simultaneous domestic and international crises.

Domestically he has stalemated the entire country by insisting on an economy recovery plan which almost no professional economist understands nor can back because it is essentially a snaky scheme to destroy a tax system which people are being pressured to regard as economic recovery. No one can figure out how to react rationally to this utterly goofy scene.

Internationally, well, uh…well, oh my, …well, lordy!

I have little doubt that Osama Bin Laden is at the top of his form licking his chops. What a harvest he has. Yes, he lost a few thousand of his militia in Afghanistan. But he has succeeded in his strategy beyond his wildest dreams. He has drawn a U.S. President into massive intervention in the Middle East where U.S. military forces and attention are now considerably over-extended. He has engaged an officer corps (the Pentagon) which does not know how to take command of civilian populations and restructure them into an orderly daily life. This insures that the masses will perpetually feel “disconnected” and alienated, perfect recruiting markets for his legions, just as can be seen massively now in Afghanistan a year after its seizure, where all the old forces are regrouping, even the Talliban, whose top leadership was never caught despite the $30 billion spent annually by Americans on high tech spying technologies which are supposed to be able to watch people walk around on the ground from outer space.

Whatever the Americans know, it isn’t doing them any good.

Yes it has been a good year for a true warrier of Islam. Osama is in total opposition now to vast governmental forces in the U.S. who serve a Presidential Cabinet composed mainly of arrogant “me firsters” who have almost no sensitivity to other cultures and history beyond the scope of their professional lives. Osama’s enemies are self-aggrandizers whose primary objective is to butcher any government they can get their hands on to deliver power, wealth, and control of all major resources to private corporated cliques.

Osama can count on their controlling network, this “Imperial Faction”, to continue to issue inflammatory statements which drive Iran, Syria, and best of all, even Saudi Arabia into increasingly paranoid mental states and preparations for opposition to U.S. actions.

Perhaps his best result so far is the opening up of active distrust between the Saudi elite and the Imperial Faction. As the chicken hawks publicly criticize and embarrass the Saudi government, which most nations learned not to do to each other several centuries ago, American personnel and U.S. troops begin to leave the Kingdom while the bombing campaign begins.

Who shall take the credit for driving U.S. forces out of Saudi Arabia? He who proposes to share the Saudi oil wealth in a new Sharia of Arabia.

An ultra wealthy Saudi elite, some 200,000 people or so worth something like one trillion dollars, govern absolutely some 20 million people whose average annual per capita income is some $5000 in a country where the cost of living for anything beyond necessities is more costly than living in the U.S.

Bin Laden tells the Arab masses, these corrupt, crooked despoilers are the agents of the West. They engorge themselves in more wealth than they know what to do with and what do they share with their brothers, as commanded by the Prophet of God? They represent everything which is wrong and they most be excised from the Islamic World.

The West, in its parochial, half bigoted kind of way, laughs at Bin Laden. But his proposition is taken with great seriousness on the streets of the Middle East. His claim to driving the U.S. out of Saudi Arabia will enhance his power and effectiveness as a revolutionary. Already the horror of 911 fades as the brutalities of the invasion of Iraq replace the earlier memories. Time is on Bin Laden’s side, not the American’s.

The U.S. military performed its job quite well to win its battles. But the wider war for the future of the Middle East has only begun. Currently, the leadership of the United States is completely outclassed intellectually. This situation will continue to worsen for all concerned until the conceited idiots in command of the U.S. government are replaced.