PHOENIX FIVE EARTH CHANGES BULLETIN

Please Note: This Bulletin is conceived as a System. It is still in an early stage of evolution. We intend to progressively link into this synopsis system all of the major news feeds of Planet Earth which articulate aspects of the profound historical Change In The Earth which is underway.

Earth Changes Bulletin Update As Of May 25 2005

You have heard of the Weather Report? Here exclusively is this week’s "Earth Report" - a short review of the "big picture" about how the dynamic changes in the Sun and the Earth are effecting our lives more and more intensely, with the latest prognostications and predictions for weathermen, farmers, investors, businessmen, and every man.

NEW LINK FOR THE NEW Earth Changes Bulletin Almanac & Updates Archive. USE THIS NEW HOME PAGE TO ACCESS THE ARCHIVES OF WEEKLY UPDATES, SPECIAL REPORTS, AND THE NEW ALMANAC.

You may click here for the full text of the Earth Changes Bulletin Update for this week, or use this URL

http://www.michaelmandeville.com/earthmonitor/ecbulletins/2005/ecb_May_25_05.htm

Tectonic danger probably is at the highest it will be for this Syzygy/Perigee period. In about 36 hours the danger will diminish again and forces will again begin to gather strength for the New Moon on June 8, then decrease again until the Full Moon Perigee in June. July and August will repeat the pattern, with the greatest tectonic danger during the Full Moon Perigee periods. The Full Moon is drawing closer to synchronicity with Perigee and will be closest in August to create the maximum period of danger at that time. Continue to maintain vigilance especially for St. Helen, Etna, & Vesuvius through to the Full Moon Perigee of August 2005.

FOR THIS YEAR OF THE GATHERING EMERGENCE:

On the astrophysical front, at the current time activity at the solar level of our vast Vortex has ebbed to low levels and few if any disturbances are likely to arise from the Sun for the next 96 hours. The Sunspot Count sank to 40 on May 25 (still falling) with the Flux at 85, but starting to rise again. The Flux will likely rise for complex multi-planet alignments from today through the next three weeks, with a few minor ups and downs. This rising flux will pull the Sunspots high and we will probably see several peaks in the range of 40 to 80 during June, perhaps one above 100 accompanied with major solar storms, CME's, and flares.

On the mental/emotional and weather fronts, expect the same as last week but rapidly turning to confusion, excess emotionality, violence, and chaos during June. Many latent irrationalities and emotional reactions are surging into manifestation, chaos in all things will increase during through June, peaking about June 1-7, before beginning to settle down again after what may be a wet and stormy Summer Solstice. Once again, weather patterns will be perturbed, not likely to normalize out of extremes until late in June. The good news of the month is that El Nino WILL NOT appear later this year (all observers and signals seem to agree), though an appearance in 2006 is not out of the question.

On the geophysical front, despite the Full Moon Syzygy and Perigee during the last few days, seismic activity was muted in frequency and magnitude. Even so at least 8 mild shape-shifters struck in the Great Rifts of the ocean bottoms, following the 30 which struck during the previous week. Five of these struck once again in the North Atlantic region, adding more to the signal that underwater volcanism may be building South of Iceland, where, MOST UNCOINCIDENTALLY, oceanographers are freaking out about rapid, radical changes in ocean currents which may portend a shift in climate for Ireland and Britain. But overall world volcanism diminished once again slightly even through the active volcano list increased from 32 to 33. Only Colima broke the gathering silence of the Annunaki (Gilgamesh Sumerian for Volcanoes) by spewing ash plumes 30,000 feet in its most active eruption in over 10 years. St. Helens and the Kamchatka Four are still slow-cooking, virtually paralleling their activity, preparing to erupt this year or the next. The movement of the Earth's crust relative to the North Spin Axis – Chandler's Wobble – HAS SORT OF NORMALIZED but is still resisting closing its spiral motion into its MIN phase. Continue to watch the tea leaves of sudden tectonic rupture on the North American West Coast. And watch the volcanoes – as predicted here in previous weeks, another surge in world volcanism is now occurring worldwide and it may increase progressively through July/August during the next three months. Many surprises may be in store for this year.

On the geopolitical front, the Imperial Bubble is at max and will finally break this year and continue sliding through 2006. THE INTERNATIONAL ECONOMY IS CLEARLY STALLING OUT AND THIS WILL APPEAR IN THE U.S. ECONOMY DURING THE LAST SIX MONTHS OF 2005. Except in the Real Estate Bubble, demand is falling, nipping inflation and weakening prices. SOON EVERYONE IN THE U.S. WILL BE TALKING NERVOUSLY ABOUT THE SLOWDOWN. THE GREAT SLIDE WHICH WILL PREFACE THE COLLAPSE OF THE EMPIRE HAS MOST LIKELY BEGUN. Major political and media initiatives of the past two weeks are bringing the abuses and crimes of the Imperial Faction more and more into the open, ending any sense of legitimacy for the Imperial Faction. This lack of confidence will feed into the coming radical dislocations in the American and international economies, which cannot be avoided, and all of this will bring civic collapse, shortages, hunger, and widespread turmoil in the U.S.

Go to detailed synopsis…

NOTES

Grayed items are not yet operational

Program Thesis:

What are we trying to do with the Earth Changes Bulletin?

Most news media do not handle technical and scientific subjects like geology and earth sciences very well. They don't understand the causes and effects of activities in the Sun and Earth. Accordingly, they often do not understand if, when, how, why to report earthquakes, volcanic activity, global warming effects The treatment often sounds absent-minded, poorly qualified, and frequently contains various technical errors. Seldom is the treatment entertaining and genuinely educational.

Based on new scientific principles which have emerged during the past thirty years, many of the dynamic activities of the Sun and Earth can be linked together to see how a range of effects are linked together. This makes it possible to paint "the big picture" into a perspective which explains many diverse events and processes, especially climate and weather patterns such as global warming and El Nino. From the "big picture", long range predictions can be made for weeks and even months ahead. The result is sophisticated cutting-edge information which is objective, balanced, astute, relevant, and can be easily seen and appreciated by lay audiences. The perspective is generally global, seldom parochial. For the framework of concepts, terms, and current conditions which are used or described in the these Bulletins, see the Earth Changes 2003 Almanac Calendar.

To see the internet resources which are used to prepare this Update, take a look at the Earth Monitor front page - http://www.michaelmandeville.com/earthmonitor/

The Bulletin is written in Arizona (UTC +8 hours) so any relative references, such as "Today", or "Tomorrow", or "Yesterday" should generally to taken to refer to the day spans as experienced in Western North America.

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UPDATES

Nov 24 not available as of this date

COMING LATE SUMMER IN WEEKLY INSTALLMENTS:

UPDATE PREDICTIONS FOR 2005 – 2012 and through "The Tribulations"

go to the Earth Changes Almanac

A systematic synopsis is being assembled which succinctly outlines predictions for the period 2005 – 2012 and through the period of what the Q’ero call the Pachacuti and the Hopi call the "Great Purification" (also known as the "Time of Troubles" or "The Tribulations". This outline will update the predictions in "The Coming Economic Collapse of 2006" and the "Return of the Phoenix", mainly by confirming the general plot line and by adding more details which carry the predictions well beyond 2006-2008.

I have just consumed four books and many iway articles and websites the past few weeks to prepare for this. For a variety of reasons, the final keys for putting together the final plot line of the Fourth Age and the most probable key signals are now being brought forward into my consciousness in a way which will allow me to describe them clearly and specifically to the world. Due to many issues, the greater bulk of this material shall not be openly available directly on the internet. Access to most of the predictions will be made available through paid annual subscriptions. Because of the strategic seriousness of some of the predictions, some I will only make available through mouth and ear in private seminars. I will begin to advise of this material through the EC Bulletins and through Alex Merklinger’s radio program

PRELIMINARY FINDING: (based on the integration of several credible psychic sources)

We have perhaps as little as 1.5 years but possibly up to 5 years before the first wave of "The Upheavals" – the long predicted rupturing of the crust along the West Coast of North America. This will terminate the American Empire and consummate the final stages of a continental civic struggle, a virtual civil war (but one without armies), which will have begun as a consequence of the economic collapse during 2006-07. Several waves of catastrophic ruptures in various locations of the crust will follow over some 20-25 years. These ruptures will create opportunities for wars in Eurasia which are not restrained by the Western powers and serious efforts will be made by regional coalitions to "conquer" the greater part of Eurasia. These waves of Upheavals and raving human irrationality will progressively degrade and finally destroy existing human cultures and nations. The final flight of the Phoenix to a new polar axis orientation for the Fifth Age Of Human Memory will occur some 10-20 years after the first Upheaval in Western North America. Thereafter, for up to 3000 years, tectonic activity, especially in the form of volcanism, will remain at heightened levels, creating many peak CENTURIES of volcanic activity which are 100-1000 times higher than current levels.

SPONSORING:

THE COMING ECONOMIC COLLAPSE OF 2006, which puts today, tomorrow, and the trends together into the Cayce 25 year economic cycle which will "bottom" in 2006/2007. Click here to download

THIS BOOK STILL COOKS AND IT WILL COOK THE POLITICIANS AND THE ECONOMY ALL THE WAY THROUGH TO 2008: This synthesis is far ahead of the daily digests in all halls of the internet media: so far (since May 2003) the track record on this set of predictions for 2003-2008 is running 100 per cent. If you have not purchased this book, you will remain ignorant of the main dynamics which are rapidly changing everything.

LATEST UPDATE NOTE AS OF May 18, 2005:

THE BEARS NOW RULE, THE IMPERIAL BUBBLE IS AT MAX AND WILL FINALLY BREAK THIS YEAR.

All economic and political conditions continue to deteriorate at an accelerating rate. MANY NEW BEAR SIGNALS ARE CIRCULATING INTERNATIONALLY. THE INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC ORDER IS INCREASINGLY NERVOUS AND FRAGILE. THE INTERNATIONAL ECONOMY IS CLEARLY STALLING OUT AND THIS WILL APPEAR IN THE U.S. ECONOMY DURING THE LAST SIX MONTHS OF 2005, BEGINNING ALREADY WITH MAY. Demand is falling and so are prices. No one knows where this is going, officially, but clearly SOON EVERYONE IN THE U.S. WILL BE TALKING NERVOUSLY ABOUT THE SLOWDOWN. THE GREAT SLIDE WHICH WILL PREFACE THE COLLAPSE OF THE EMPIRE HAS MOST LIKELY BEGUN. Meanwhile Wall Street and the Corporate Global Set parade around like Marie Antoinette after another year of increasing CEO pay by another 50%. They are now at the peak of their bubble. CEO pay will decrease to $.05 or less on the dollar during the next three years and will never ever again reach the corrupt levels it reached under the reign of the Bush Crime Family. The Bush Administration has little support for any of its initiatives and Washington DC appears to be sinking into a paralysis of collective incompetence. Internationally the war/peace situation continues to improve. Iraq may now begin to stabilize under Shi'a leadership unless disrupted by CIA machinations and it is increasingly unlikely that the Imperial Faction can consolidate enough support to mount attacks against Iran and Syria. If so, the Petro-Dollar will progressively decline in value in a gradual let-down during the next year, perhaps by another 10% relative to the Euro and perhaps by another 20% relative to oil. As of May 18, 2005: The let down is likely to be slowed by the current "contraction" wave in the international economy which is making institutional asset holders increasingly nervous.

AS PREVIOUSLY OBSERVED: Oil prices are dropping as stocks and equities firm up and the economy continues expansion with the expectation that American Imperialism will continue (unfortunately) to drive international events during 2005. BEWARE SUDDEN REVERSALS WHEN ALQAEDA STRIKES. BEWARE THE EMERGING SUPER-COALITION IN EURASIA WHICH WILL PROGRESSIVELY UNDERCUT THE AMERICAN DOLLAR DURING 2005, GENERALLY IN A MEASURED WAY WHICH AVOIDS SUDDEN PANIC. This is not a hostile action, it is a sensible reaction of the world to the vast over-reach of America’s Imperial Pretenders. This will produce a strong trend of basic price inflation in the U.S. as basic material commodity prices and the cost of imported goods continue to rise. The world WILL solve the Balance of Payments problem, mainly by raising the dollar costs of imports beyond the means of Americans to purchase them.

ALL DATES AND TIMES USED IN THE EARTH CHANGES BULLETIN ARE NOW UTC = Universal Time Constant, previously known as Greenwich Mean Time.

HOUSEKEEPING

WE ARE STILL IN AN AWKWARD STAGE WITH THE BULLETINS. MUCH PROGRESS HAS BEEN MADE IN COMPLETELY REDEFINING THE BULLETIN, MONITOR, ALMANAC, AND WEBSITE, BUT SO FAR IT IS ALL INVISIBLE. THE NEW SCHEMA WILL BE INTRODUCED DURING MARCH – MAY.

We are halfway into a process which will combine an almanac structure with the weekly updates. I intend a three tier Bulletin/Almanac Archive: a weekly newsletter which is shorter than present, an archive of the Weekly Updates in web pages, and a deeper core structure which is like an Almanac, encompassing years, major references, explanations of all the details, and outlines for many years in advance of various predictions and concerns. To this core we will link the Updates and around the entire business we will add a variety of news feeds and tightly focused discussion forums. From these news feeds, some items in summary form will appear in the Updates. It will take a couple of months yet to shape this up to where I will truly want it to be.

Today you can finally access an update of the past year's bulletins and the beginning of an annual forecast for 2005. Click here for the new access point to the current new home page for the Earth Changes Bulletin Almanac & Archive

MANDEVILLE IS ON THE RADIO EVERY WEDNESDAY WITH

Alex Merklinger (Millennium Radio) show at 7 PM Arizona Time (6 PM Pacific Time). Regular Weekly Update For The Earth Changes Bulletin. To find Iway archives and stations, see Millennium Radio Network

Begin Synopsis

As stated in the "Coming Economic Collapse of 2006", the nature of human politics reflects the communication abilities of the human species. As we transform the media, as we have been on the Iway, we will transform human politics and the entire Earth. Making the way for the New Earth is operationally equivalent to making a new Media on the Iway. Not that that is all that there is to it. Not by a long shot…but IT IS one of the essentials we need to dissolve the blockages and dance around the tyrannies.

SPIRITUAL WATCH

How to converge and express the spirit of mass transformation into manifestation, HOW to be, IS the question. How to do is the praxis of the time. Examining this question, probing it, is the chief trendline of this year.

FOR WINTER AND SPRING 2005:

MANY PEOPLE ARE TELLING ME SOMING IS ABOUT TO BREAK….

All forces, BOTH DARK AND LIGHT, seem to be gathering and abiding at the moment….

Many things and events are being set in motion but very little is currently visible on the surface as people busy themselves re-arranging the deck chairs of the Titanic.

The loony Imperial Faction clearly is on a course for a massive confrontation with the Iceberg of history. They have consummated almost a complete takeover of the National government, all that remains are two Supreme Court Justice appointments.

None of us will escape the titanic struggle for the soul of America and history which will emerge this year and next.

There is underway very rapid progress on all internal spiritual and psychic development issues. THOSE WHO MEDITATE ARE TUNING INTO INCREASING ENERGY LEVELS AND MAJOR TRANSFORMATIONS OF HOW THEIR CHAKRAS BALANCE AND WORK. Much of this transformation is not very describable as it involves shifts in how our personal "holographic" field is experienced.

DIET IS EXCEPTIONALLY IMPORTANT AS EVER BUT EVEN MORE SO FOR THOSE WHOSE UPPER CHAKRAS ARE OPENING and energize. As they energize, the body begins to reject more militantly the load of industrial chemistry which now adulterates the greater bulk of American grocery store food items.

What to do about it is very complex and differs for nearly all people. But here is a shot gun approach which is probably very helpful for a great many If you are having an increased load of health issues, drop prepackaged food out of your diet AS MUCH AS POSSIBLE, fix from scratch with items as pure as possible, eat mega doses of sodium acerbate (Vitamin C) or from natural sources such as rose hips, and MAKE SURE YOU TAKE IN NO COOKING OILS EXCEPT FROM OLIVE OIL. OLIVE OIL IS A GIFT FROM THE GODS AND HAS ALSO BEEN DEMONSTRATED TO DECREASE CANCER AND/OR SLOW DOWN ITS REPLICATION IN THE BODY.

Interior channels have energized and nearly everyone I talk to relays similar experiences of new channels or access to new awareness of imagery or feelings or knowledge opening up. A step-function in personal maturity has been experienced, along with increased personal vibrancy. As it were, a real "personal inauguration" seems at hand. It is a good time to focus on the emerging Medicine Wheel of the Earth and our energetic interconnection within Indri's Net. It is an excellent time to enhance the power of inner visualization and connection. Thanks to Adam for bringing this back into our consciousness. Try this visualization:.

Indri's Net: (as described in the ancient Sanskrit texts)

There is an endless net of threads throughout the universe.

The horizontal threads are in space.

The vertical threads are in time.

At every crossing of threads there is an individual.

And every individual is a crystal bead.

The great light of absolute being illuminates and penetrates every crystal being.

And every crystal being reflects not only the light from every other crystal in the net,

But also every reflection of every reflection throughout the universe.

MWM: Try that on for visualizing the All In All we call God. Talk about opening up channels….

Mayan Elders have delivered an urgent message: the major Earth Changes of the "Pachacuti" or "Purification" period have begun with the rupture of the Indo-Trench. They expect increasing seismic activity and major quakes of a similar nature to occur through the next several months.

FOR 2005:

Some major keywords for 2005 are:

"Gathering", most especially in the sense of gathering of forces;

"Being", as in the sense of fully participating in the realization and practice of what we dare to hope we are becoming;

"Accepting"; negatively as in eating the "Karmic Blowback" (the American People are going to take an immense amount of Karmic Blowback for the Tragedy in Iraq); positively as in receiving supportive affirmation for long-suffering spiritual efforts and intentions

"Emerging", realization and experiencing of the becomings long sought, most especially as in bringing forth the new understandings, orientations, needs, and directions of purpose for a profoundly different world than is celebrated in the Mass Media.

In the positive dimension, around these keywords, many new phenomenon will emerge, especially in the forms of groups and individuals manifesting new activities.

NEXT SEVEN YEARS:

In the negative dimension, the coming "Karmic Blowback" is going to be terrible and shake the very roots of everything in North America from now through to 2012. But a great turning towards peace and a desire for equitable, personal connection to real community is underway in the hearts and minds of a great mass of humanity. This is the entire hope.

STAY FOCUSED ON HELPING THE EMERGENCE OF PEACE, JUSTICE, AND FREEDOM. DENY ALL MOVEMENT TOWARDS FASCISM. THE FASCISTS AND BIGOTS AMONG THE NATIONS ARE GOING TO DELIVER INCREASING QUANTITIES OF KARMIC BLOWBACK TO EACH OTHER. It will be terrible in the coming years, and in 2005 the U.S. will begin to tangibly feel PRECURSERS of the blowback. Nothing is going to "go right" for the North American Powers That Be this year – and it gets worse and worse as the year goes down.

I SUGGEST YOU "DUCK" AND KEEP PUTTING YOURSELF IN A DIFFERENT PLACE ALLTOGETHER – MENTALLY AND EMOTIONALLY AND POLITICALLY AND ECONOMICALLY, AND IF YOU ARE URBAN DEPENDENT, I HIGHLY RECOMMEND THAT YOU BEGIN TO FORM YOUR STRATEGY FOR PHYSICALLY DUCKING THE EMPIRE’S KARMIC BLOWBACK FOR THE PERIOD 2006-2012, ESPECIALLY IF YOU LIVE IN THE EAST COAST BUBBLE.

No-Eyes, the blind old first world prophet of the Rockies had it right 20 years ago, conditions are going to get increasing bad because of the karmic blowback and there is no end in sight until "the Phoenix screeches".

BREATH FREE. Let go of everything which is disturbed, distorted, or weird. Let go of everything which is forced, contrived, hidden, manipulative, and/or constrictive. Keep flowing with the rising tide of spiritual energies which are filling many thirsty souls. The old patterns are falling away. Transition continues. Embrace new relationships which are trying to form in your life if they are honest and straightforward and provide a new openness. Forget the fears of the unknown, embrace all that which lifts your life into the light of a greater understanding and relationship with the all.

SPIRITS EMERGING: CONFIRMING WHAT I PREDICTED LAST YEAR: "In a short while, some will come forth giving witness to a great energy which has come into their lives, literally, as if the hand of God was upon them. This is becoming more and more apparent and these words will have greater meaning by the end of the year."

Here is one. ADAM, an 18 year old healer in Vancouver, British Columbia, is beginning to be recognized and is causing more and more of a stir. He is quite possibly a great successor to the Edgar Cayce tradition. If you combine his group "work" with disciplined personal meditation, you have the keys to the full realization of gathering, being, and emergence this year. His two short books, which I had the opportunity to read over the year end holidays are well worth reading and he will tell you in his own words how to operationalize what I had written in this section last month:

Don’t react, go to center, get clear, release, and grieve…the Fourth Age is dying rapidly now… much more rapidly than we thought, its institutions and identities are beyond saving… let it go, let go, get to center…flow into God, let God flow into you…don’t speculate, don’t analyze, don’t react to the shtuff…clear…clean out the past four years…we are now free to grieve the death of everything we detested…let it go…let it go…let it die. As you re-center in God, find the realization that this is the final moment you have been waiting for to end your connections and involvements with the illusions and delusions of all that which has betrayed the divine within each and brought greed, war, and destruction over the Earth.

The destroyers belong to each other, this is now the final time of their fatal embrace. Let them love their wars…they have greatly desired the bitter wines of their hatreds and violence, they have lusted greatly for their Armageddon, and they shall have it.

The die has been cast with a thousand artifices and illusions. With the excellence of its manner of casting, God has delivered to you your own freedom from the delusions and spells of the Mass Sorcerers, indeed, from the entire age, if you will but realize it. Clear yourself and your life to find now the sense of movement and direction to separate your life from the dying culture which is putrefying all around you. There is no saving it…as Buckminster Fuller observed many decades ago, the old order is never saved, the new order merely grows up around it to eventually takes its place. So it will come to pass now in an intense period of vast change during the next twenty years.

The "Great Purification" predicted by the Hopi, Maya, Q’ero, and many others continues. How amazing that these ancient oral traditions could tune into last year and this one to advise us that this was a period of profound historical turning involving

The Great Purification

of the Earth? For additional discussion, see the commentary of May 19, 2004 and the commentary of June 16, 2004.

THE NEW BASIS IS GESTATING….

THE time to link the spiritual communities of the Earth. The Whole Earth. IT HAS BECOME URGENT TO LINK THE SPIRITUAL COMMUNITIES WITHIN A BROAD MOVEMENT WHICH PROVIDES NEW CURRENTS OF SPIRITUAL LEADERSHIP.

FOR THE MOST PART: Steady as she goes. A slow acceleration in the shifting of the poles has been underway for perhaps the past 100 years and the last three decades has shown an increase in the rate of acceleration. This has appeared to accelerate even more during the past decade.

POLAR MOTION

What is happening to the motion of the Earth. For the overall summary of the status of polar motion CLICK HERE. To see the current graphs of polar motion, CLICK HERE. Scroll down the page until you get to the black and white graphs with show the x and y coordinates of the North Spin Axis on two separate graphs.

BREAKING NEWS:

The resistance continues. For the past couple of weeks the Spiral Track of the Spin Axis has been modestly erratic and continues to resist spiraling down to its minimum diameter spiral track around the world. At The moment, the Spin Axis is attempting to drift slightly towards Siberia.

AS PREVIOUSLY REPORTED:

The deviation in the time dimension of the Earth's spiral wobble track continues. Polar motion X Plot now showing perhaps as much as 20% deviation in the time dimension. A similar deviation is obvious also in the Y Plot. This may show up as a substantial increase in the rate of the drift of the North Spin Axis. Possibly, the average location may be seen to "drift" more rapidly during this "closing phase" of the 6.5 year spiral cycle, more rapidly than the preceding 6.5 year cycle.

This is most likely the engine in the acceleration of both

the earth changes, global warming, and the related weather/climate disruptions

FOR A DETAILED DISCUSSION OF THE RECENT "PHASE-SHIFTING" IN CHANDLER'S WOBBLE, GO TO THE NEW MATERIAL IN THE NEW Earth Changes Almanac

BACKGROUND INFORMATION

FOR 2005:

In general, the Wobble Track is showing continued tightening of the Chandler’s Wobble Spiral, as should be at this time in its 7 year Wobble Cycle, and the track seems to be conforming with a continued acceleration in the rate of drift, but this can be by no means certain until this 7 year cycle is over. In about two years we will be able to locate the minimum spiral of motion and then look for the average 7 year "location" of this past seven years for comparison with previous cycles.

NEXT SEVEN YEARS:

(The spiral track takes nearly seven years to define a complete wobble cycle and it takes the entire cycle to be able to calculate the average location of the North Spin Axis in order to compare it against other "average locations" in the previous axis cycles. From this, a straight line track of the "average locations" can be computed and the acceleration in the rate of motion of the "shift" can be defined. I believe at the current time that this will show a specific "jump" this past year, a micro "pole shift". Very micro.)

REFERENCE:

http://maia.usno.navy.mil/xplot2.gif

http://maia.usno.navy.mil/yplot2.gif

MAGNETIC POLES – SHIFTING

What is happening to the magnetic fields of the Earth. No real change during the past year: a magnetic pole shift is not something to be very concerned about within this decade at least.

EXCELLENT BACKGROUNDER:

Focus On Our Magnetic Planet

Paris, France (ESA) Jan 25, 2005

http://www.terradaily.com/news/earth-magnetic-05b.html

"Mission controllers cross their fingers whenever the Sun is stormy and their spacecraft have to fly over the South Atlantic. There, even satellites in low orbits suffer many hits by atomic bullets from the Sun.

Troublesome faults occur in electronic systems and astronauts see flashes in their eyes. The Earth's magnetic field, which shields our planet against charged atomic particles coming from outer space, is curiously weak in that region.

The South Atlantic Anomaly, as the experts call it, is one pressing reason why they are intensifying their exploration of the Earth's magnetism. Denmark's Orsted satellite, launched in 1999, is dedicated to magnetic research, whilst Germany's CHAMP mission (2000) measures both magnetism and gravity.

These satellites show that the danger zone for satellites over Brazil and the South Atlantic is growing wider towards the southern Indian Ocean.

The Earth's magnetic field is becoming generally weaker at an astonishing rate. When a French-Danish team compared Orsted's results for 2000 with those from an American satellite, Magsat, 20 years earlier, the decline in the field's strength suggested that it might disappear completely in a thousand years or so.

The experts wonder if our planet is preparing to swap its north and south magnetic poles around, as it has often done before during the Earth's long history.

These and other mysteries about our magnetic planet will get the closer attention they deserve, in ESA's forthcoming Swarm project. Three satellites will work together to measure the magnetic field and its variations far more accurately than ever before. [...]

Separating the different sources of magnetism

Ordinary magnetic compasses obey the main magnetic field, produced by electric currents in the Earth's core of molten iron. But in magnetic storms, compass needles wander.

Since the 19th Century scientists have linked these storms to eruptions on the Sun. Many space ventures, recently including the ESA-NASA SOHO spacecraft and ESA's four-satellite Cluster mission, have helped to clarify the solar connection.

We live in a protective bubble in space called the magnetosphere. At its boundary, gusts in a non-stop solar wind of atomic particles battle with the Earth's magnetism.

As a result, events in outer space make a continual but highly variable contribution to the magnetic field. So do electric currents in the ionosphere, the zone of free electrons and charged air molecules high in the atmosphere that's best known for reflecting radio signals.

Other, much weaker patterns are overlaid on the global picture. In the Earth's crust, many rocks have built-in magnetism that remembers the direction of the main magnetic field when they formed.

This affects the field measured locally. By its subtle east-west comparisons Swarm will picture the magnetic field of the crust with unprecedented clarity. And even ocean water generates electric currents as it move in the main field, so that the ebb and flow of the tides have a slight magnetic effect.

As gauged by the satellites, the main field is roughly 6,000 times stronger than the rock magnetism of the ocean floor, and 30,000 times greater than the influence of the oceanic tides.

Only with delicate measurements by satellite constellations, supported by ground stations, ships and aircraft carrying magnetic instruments, can scientists sort out all the patterns of magnetism from the different sources.

The most careful analyses reveal yet another effect. Magnetic variations drive electric currents in the mantle, the main region between the core and the crust. These in turn cause further magnetic changes, from which scientists can estimate the electrical conductivity of the mantle. This provides a check on the temperature of the material hidden deep in the Earth's interior.

"What excites us is the huge scope of what we can study even with quite small satellites," comments Nils Olsen of the Danish National Space Center in Copenhagen, who analyses Orsted's results while he helps to plan Swarm.

"By making magnetic measurements in space we get new information about the Earth, from the molten core deep under our feet, through the mantle, to the crust on which we live. And then we go on upwards into the upper atmosphere, through the planet's local space environment, and all the way to the Sun itself, which is the source of daily magnetic disturbances."

Practical benefits

Solar storms can be fatal for satellites, and not only on account of radiation damage. The atmosphere inflates and low-orbiting spacecraft run into unexpected air resistance.

Experts used to think it was just a matter of the air being heated by particles and electric currents in the regions around the poles, where auroras occur.

Now a sensitive French-built accelerometer on the German CHAMP satellite has revealed heating by intense currents where the solar wind pushes towards the magnetic poles in daytime. The three Swarm satellites will investigate this new effect with accelerometers of their own.

Swarm's operational lifetime, 2009-13, will coincide with the next expected peak of storminess on the Sun. Immediate practical benefits will centre on Swarm's general monitoring of space weather, and the solar events affecting not just spacecraft and astronauts but technological systems on the ground as well.

Magnetic storms can damage power systems and pipelines, whilst the changes in the magnetic field can mislead any navigational systems that use magnetic compasses. These include compasses operating underground to guide the drills used to find and recover oil.

For scientists, the biggest benefit of Swarm is that high-quality magnetic measurements provide a new way of 'x-raying' the hidden interior of planet. Earthquake waves and variations in the strength of gravity already provide a picture of the hot core, the rocky mantle that surrounds it, and the ever-active crust. But the picture is not yet clear enough for scientists to agree how the internal machinery of the planet really works.

"Magnetic measurements give a fresh point of view on the Earth's interior," says Roger Haagmans, who is responsible for solid-Earth science in ESA's Earth Observation programme.

"And Swarm will also investigate the puzzling changes in the Earth's core that are responsible for the present weakening of the magnetic field. That's already a matter of practical concern for many satellite operators. With a better idea of the reasons, we may know what to expect in the busy decades of spaceflight that we have ahead of us."

Asteroids

As of June 04,

NASA’S

ESTIMATE:

"Potentially Hazardous Asteroids (PHAs) are space rocks larger than approximately 100m that can come closer to Earth than 0.05 AU. None of the known PHAs (asteroids) are on a collision course with our planet, although astronomers are finding new ones all the time."

PLANETS & ALIGNMENTS
(all time coordinates here and elsewhere are in UTC unless otherwise noted, dates for planetary alignments are derived from Home Planet Software using PC graphics, due to limitations of software and graphics display, actual timing may be off as much as three days, for scientific work, use a professional ephemeris for exact dates). For background and the current information on planetary alignments go to the Earth Changes Almanac Calendar. The Almanac lays out the planets and the lunar phases for entire year in advance to allow you to find the best and worst periods of weather, earthquake activity, ethereal "lunar" influences, etc.

Daily Planet – click here for sheer artistic pleasure

Every day John Walker’s (Home Planet Software) computer creates a new image of hypothetical habitable planet, just one every day for the estimated 2 billion potential habitable planets in our Galaxy, which the Egyptians more or less named Nun, a mother Goddess from which all life flows. Euro people nursery tales converted the name into the Milky Way. http://www.fourmilab.ch/terranova/terranovag.html

Moon Perigee/Apogee/Phase Data - click here to be always up to date

Earth/Moon Viewer by John Walker
http://www.fourmilab.ch/earthview/pacalc.html

Daily Solar System – click here to view Planet Alignments

The Home Planet software computes in real time the exact relative positions of the planets. Go here to view today’s image of the solar system as seen from a heliocentric view (the sun in the center, you looking at the entire solar system as if it were a big pancake. You can set any date and time. You should generally ask the form to give you the "equal orbits" view so you can see all the planets.

http://www.fourmilab.ch/cgi-bin/uncgi/Solar

FOR AN ALMANAC SYTLE SUMMARY FORECAST OF 2005 ALIGNMENTS, SUNSPOT PEAKS, WEATHER IMPACTS, AND HUMAN MOOD SHIFTS (through to Summer at this point)

AND a general discussion of how all this works and why this is worth doing, click here for the Earth Changes Almanac.

TODAY’S MOON

We are in Lunation #1019 and we are now 16 days past the New Moon of May 8 (UTC), the Moon this day is now in its deep South Node (South of the Equator). It is now approximately 366,276 KM from the Earth. It is 94% of the Full Moon (visibility or phase) now waning toward the next New Moon of June 6.

LUNAR PERIGEE/APOGEE/PHASE TABLE FOR 2005

Event Day UTC Distance Days +/- Phase

New	8-May	8:49
Apogee	14-May	13:42	404600 km	N+6d 4h
Full	23-May	20:21
Perigee	26-May	10:44	364240 km	F+2d14h
New	6-Jun	21:58
Apogee	11-Jun	6:13	405505 km	N+4d 8h
Full	22-Jun	4:16
Perigee	23-Jun	11:50	359674 km	F+1d 7h
New	6-Jul	12:05
Apogee	8-Jul	17:40	406362 km	N+2d 5h
Full	21-Jul	11:03
Perigee	21-Jul	19:46	357159 km	F+ 8h
Apogee	4-Aug	21:50	406629 km	N- 5h
New	5-Aug	3:06
Full	19-Aug	17:55
Perigee	19-Aug	5:33	357395 km	F- 12h
Apogee	1-Sep	2:36	406209 km	N-2d16h
New	3-Sep	18:46
Perigee	16-Sep	13:59	360405 km	F-1d12h
Full	18-Sep	2:02
Apogee	28-Sep	15:21	405306 km	N-4d19h
New	3-Oct	10:28
Perigee	14-Oct	13:51	365449 km	F-2d22h
Full	17-Oct	12:14
Apogee	26-Oct	9:36	404492 km	N-6d15h
New	2-Nov	1:24
Perigee	10-Nov	0:16	370013 km	F-6d 0h
Full	16-Nov	0:57
Apogee	23-Nov	6:19	404370 km	F+7d 5h
New	1-Dec	15:00
Perigee	5-Dec	4:33	367364 km	N+3d13h
Full	15-Dec	16:16
Apogee	21-Dec	2:50	405013 km	F+5d10h
New	31-Dec	3:12
Full	14-Jan	9:48

SEISMIC SYZYGY WINDOWS

QUALIFER: As we have seen at least three times this past year, most dramatically with the recent outbreak (Oct 23-26 2004) of large Earthquakes on the West side of Honshu Island (Japan), the Syzygy Window and Perigee principles DO NOT WORK CONSISTENTLY TO FORECAST AN INCREASE IN MAGNITUDE NOR FREQUENCY OF EARTHQUAKES. Using strictly an intuitive view of the past 12 months, the rate of accuracy is definitely larger than random but probably not larger than about 70% for any given area.

THE CURRENT WEEK

We are now more or less in Perigee, which will be perfected on May 26. Seismic and tectonic activity should pick up appreciably for a couple of days at least.

FOR THE YEAR 2005

The strongest syzygies (based on the combination of the Lunar Phase with Perigee) during the first half of the year should tend to be around the New Moon. The New Moon and Perigee combination was the strongest in January (occurring at virtually the same time on January 10) and the combination gradually gets weaker during the year and is at its lowest during the Summer.

The Full Moon is in the weakest syzygy (based on its distance from the Earth) during January and SUCCEEDING FULL MOONS will gradually become stronger, achieving their greatest pull on the Earth in June and July. (Cancer natives will have a maximum power Lunar whammy this year). Then it gradually gets weaker during the remainder of the year while the New Moon is slowly gaining again in strength.

HOWEVER, VERY IMPORTANT QUALIFICATION: This characterization of strong and weak syzygies does not necessarily mean you can predict the strength or frequency of earthquake activity by this means…the Earth is inconsistent and full of surprises to keep us all busy. Outbreaks of seismic activity can and do break out at any time. Large quakes tend to be in the syzygies, but they are not always…

AS PREVIOUSLY OBSERVED:

Jim Berkland, the originator of using syzygy to define the most active periods of seismic activity has a more complex method for computing dates and you may want to use his methods for greater precision. For details see the Syzygy website

(Perigee = the Moon’s closest approach to the Earth during its monthly orbit which increases gravitational influence of the Moon by as much as 15%; Apogee = the Moon’s greatest distance from the Earth during its monthly orbit). (Berkland has a more complex formula for syzygy and his dates are often different.) For details see the Syzygy website.

THE NEXT PLANETARY ALIGNMENTS

For any "Home Planet Software" charts of the planets which are shown here or through URLS which are provided on this page, you can decipher which planet is which by counting the orbital rings if you do not know the signs which denote the planets. Mercury is 1 closest to the Sun, Venus is 2, Earth is 3, Mars is 4, Jupiter is 5, Saturn is 6, Uranus is 7, Neptune is 8, Pluto is 9, and both Planet X and Nibiru are bogus.

IMPORTANT NOTE ABOUT PLANETARY/SOLAR INFLUENCES: Solar Cycle 23 is rapidly approaching its minima period when solar activity and sunspot counts will be minimal most of the time. But even so, major sunspot peaks, big flares, coronal holes, and powerful CME’s will still occur once in a while, as the graphs of previous sunspot cycles definitely show. These flare-ups will be a lot less predictable than during the past four years, which makes the large flare-ups even more intrusive.

LIST OF ALIGNMENTS THROUGH TO JUNE 30, 2005

Today's Solar System: Click Here For Heliocentric Chart of Solar System as of May 1, 2005

Mars is slowly forming up an alignment with Neptune (for June 7) even as Venus does the same thing with Saturn on the opposite side of the Sun (nearly 180 degrees opposite). Mercury will join Venus on about June 7….

Continue to expect sunspot activity to peak above 100 about the beginning of June.

The Summer Ping Pong

June 7, 2005 Venus | Saturn with Mercury moving up in close alignment, followed on June 10 , 2005 with Mercury forming a triplet with Venus and Saturn as Earth couples with Pluto and
Mars | Neptune. The timing of these alignments between these planets is not exact, the electromagnetic balances of the solar system will shift in a complex way, probably producing a number of ups and downs in the sunspot count.

STAR & PLANET WATCHING

For background and the current information on observable planets.

NASA'S DATA ON NEAR EARTH ASTEROIDS: "Potentially Hazardous Asteroids (PHAs) are space rocks larger than approximately 100m that can come closer to Earth than 0.05 AU. None of the known PHAs are on a collision course with our planet, although astronomers are finding new ones all the time."

On May 18 2005 there were 696 known Potentially

Hazardous Asteroids.

ASTEROID	DATE (UT)	MISS DISTANCE	MAG.
2005 JT1	May 11	6.9 LD	19
2005 ED318	May 23	6.3 LD	14
2000 AG6	July 22	8.7 LD	20

Notes: LD is a "Lunar Distance." 1 LD = 384,401 km, the distance between Earth and the Moon.

SUNSPOTS

The events in the solar atmosphere which impact weather and climate patterns, the magnetic field and auroras, including forecasts for the week, month, and year ahead. CLICK HERE for background information.

To follow the numbers below, click here to view the Solar Cycle 23 Chart. Or, get the data in a NOAA Table.

After the Great Blast on May 15 (intense magnetic storm, CME, flares),

AS PREDICTED

the Sunspot Count quickly declined and has remained below 45, dropping to 40 on May 24, 2005. The Count is still headed South but the Flux is slowly headed higher at 85 from its low of 84 on May 23, 2005.

This rising Flux may pull the Sunspot Count higher as well. This is pretty much as one would expect as the Sun begins to respond to the coming three Planetary Alignments, which will be strongest between June 1 – 7. These alignments should generate three spikes in the Sunspot Count, through two of them could be minor. The one involving Venus | Neptune could generate a major spike in the range of 100 or even a little higher.

The Planetary A Index is low in its normal range at 8 as of May 24, 2005.

Despite the sudden drop, the sunspot activity of the past three weeks is making the average for solar activity during May much higher than predicted.

More activity must be expected for the coming alignments which will form up during the first week of June. We probably should expect high counts, even though the last multi-planet alignment failed to produce numbers to match the Mercury | Uranus alignment.

Date Flux Sunspots Total Area

2005 05 18 84 46 400

2005 05 19 85 34 310

2005 05 20 84 22 170

2005 05 21 82 37 130

2005 05 22 82 42 200

2005 05 23 83 36 150

2005 05 24 85 40 170

AS PREVIOUSLY OBSERVED: Solar Cycle 23 is dying quickly but IT CAN AND WILL OCCASSIONALLY PRODUCE SUDDEN STORMY MOMENTS WITH BRIEF MOMENTS OF HIGH SUNSPOT COUNTS, CME’S FLARES, ETC. "NOW" is the kind of moment when these spritzy solar moods will come.

MONTHLY AVERAGES IN SOLAR CYCLE 23
These numbers are reported by Jan Alvestad

Over all, the sunspot average count (ISSN) for February 2004 was 46.0. By November 2004, the count was still abnormally high at 43.7, making the decline of Solar Cycle 23 slow indeed. But December clearly brought the end of the high sunspot counts. The average dipped down to a low of 17.9, surprising everyone. The predicted average value for January was 27 but the Sun's average sunspot output nearly doubled December's and rose to 31.3. February's was 29, some 8 more than the expected 21. March was projected to be some 24 and in fact produced 24.8 average sunspots. April came in at 24.4

FOR 2005 – 2009

It looks like this Sunspot Cycle 23 will officially end at about the mid-point of the NASA projections. This will push the next rise in the Sunspot Counts beginning in 2009 with the peak above 100 monthly average coming in late 2010 or in 2011. The average count should drop during the next 12 months to a monthly low in the range of 10. More and more, now and for the next half dozen years, the Sun will influence Earth’s atmosphere and weather less and less. Global Warming and El Nino type of phenomena will be more and more influential compared to the solar input. The geo-data we gather during the next three years about weather, climate, the Arctic, Antarctic, Drought Regions, etc. will be extremely valuable in telling us what the true long-term geo-trends really are.

NOTE: The Sun and its cycles are really not very "average" and not very "cyclical" or "regular". Nowhere can we find any evidence of an exact regularity, only constant variations. The Sun is and probably always has been a vast cauldron of chaotic storms, electro-magnetic upwellings, and enormous explosions and sudden flares (or CME’s) which can extend out as far as even the outer planets, producing somewhat chaotic impacts on the planets. All this makes exact predictions of solar activity far beyond the pale of human science, even with first class models of the electromagnetic gradients created by the planets and their orbital relationships. From this it is easy to infer with considerable experience and conviction, that nothing on Earth can be foreseen, EXACTLY. Just as some order is inevitable, so is some chaos built directly into the cosmos.

SOLAR ACTIVITY

As reported by NASA/NOAA unless otherwise stated. (Sudden surprises and huge storms are always possible even during sunspot minima periods such as the one we are currently headed into). Descriptions and numbers are based on numbers as given by Iway sources at about 1:00 – 3:00 PM Arizona Mountain Time (which does not have daylight savings time).

Solar activity dropped significantly this last week after the huge flares, CME, and magnetic storm on May 15.

Only minor disturbances are expected during the next several days by NASA/NOAA observers and by Jan Alvestad (whose predictions I follow). The odds of major CME's (and major magnetic disturbances) during the next 24 hours are 1- 5%, …this forecast is likely good for a few days.

NASA REPORTS: "QUIET SUN: Last week, solar storms sparked spectacular auroras across the United States. This week is different. Solar activity is low and auroras are unlikely…"

The Solar Wind was slow at: 355.9 km/s this hour while pushing a modest density of 1.6 protons/cm3".

Fluxgate Magnetometer: To see the Fluxgate moment to moment, CLICK HERE. The Fluxgate Chart at the University of Alaska (which measures magnetic disturbances in the Earth’s atmosphere created by solar winds and ion storms) is a virtual flat line...revealing that the Earth is currently sailing through a nearly "glass" solar sea" (as of this time, about 2 PM Mountain time US).

AURORA WATCH: zip, nada, nothing for the next 24 hours, then possibly on May 27 or 28

NASA PREDICTS: " A solar wind stream flowing from the indicated coronal hole might blow past Earth on May 27th or 28th. High-latitude auroras are possible then." Solar Flares: Probabilities for a medium-sized (M-class) or a major (X-class) solar flare during the next 24/48 hours are: 1-5%. Geomagnetic Storms: Probabilities for significant disturbances in Earth's magnetic field are 1-25%.

Jan Alvestad reports: "The geomagnetic field was quiet on May 24. Solar wind speed ranged between 360 and 445 km/sec. Solar flux measured at 20h UTC on 2.8 GHz was 85.2. The planetary A index was 5 (STAR Ap - based on the mean of three hour interval ap indices: 4.9)...At midnight there were 2 spotted regions on the visible solar disk. The solar flare activity level was very low. No C class events were recorded during the day...May 22-24: No obviously fully or partly potentially geoeffective CMEs were observed...A recurrent coronal hole (CH167) in the northern hemisphere will be in an Earth facing position on May 24-26."

Jan Alvestad predicts: "The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet on May 25-26. Unsettled and active intervals are possible from late on May 27 until May 29 due to effects from CH167. Alvestad also predicts for the next 24 hours a 60-100% probability of coronal holes, a 0-20% probability of CME’s, and a 0-20% probability of M and/or X Class Flares.

WORLD WEATHER SUMMARY

Those who have been watching the weather patterns track the Sunspot Peaks have seen that the correlations between sunspot peaks and major storm fronts coming in off the oceans to track across the continents is roughly pretty good, sometimes very much exactly on the mark. Accordingly, our "sloppycasts" (approximate continental weather patterns) this past few years have proven out to be fairly worthwhile. With the decline in sunspot activity, weather is now more governed by Earth’s geophysics and will be mostly through to about 2010. For geophysical-based reports and predictions – start with Yahoo Weather, or the Weather Channel. Am I resigning from weather forecasts? Almost. This section will only add commentary on possible weather disturbances when major sunspot peaks form up. These should be more rare than during the past four years.

In General: All conditions are moderating in most of the Northern Hemisphere, even if nothing in the climate regimes are normal anymore.

This will continue now for the next several days but the complex planetary alignments from June 1 through mid-June will make chaos of both the weather and the predictions about the weather.

During the next two weeks, two or maybe four waves of spikes in the Sunspot Count will drive a lot of unseasonable flow of air, which will be wetter and more energetic than normal, and which will flow in unusual ways. This will continue to create "freaks" in the weather.

FOR AN ALMANAC SYTLE SUMMARY FORECAST OF 2005 ALIGNMENTS, SUNSPOT PEAKS, WEATHER IMPACTS, AND HUMAN MOOD SHIFTS (through to Summer at this point) AND a general discussion of how all this works and why this is worth doing, click here for Earth Changes Almanac.

EARTH WEATHER PREDICTION FOR THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS

(Northern Hemisphere) This "sloppycast" is based on sunspot counts, planetary alignments, and visual data shown on satellite and radar.

Calming, normalizing…

EARTH WEATHER PREDICTION FOR SUMMER/FALL SEASON

(Northern Hemisphere) This "sloppycast" is based on sunspot counts, planetary alignments, and visual data shown on satellite and radar.

June will see intense, stormy periods across huge areas of the continents.

HURRICANES

For NOAA's 2005 projections related to hurricanes, go to:

http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories2005/s2438.htm

Summary From NOAA:

"May 16, 2005 — NOAA hurricane forecasters are predicting another above-normal hurricane season on the heels of last year's destructive and historic hurricane season. "NOAA's prediction for the 2005 Atlantic hurricane season is for 12 to15 tropical storms, with seven to nine becoming hurricanes, of which three to five could become major hurricanes," said retired Navy Vice Adm. Conrad C. Lautenbacher, Ph.D., undersecretary of commerce for oceans and atmosphere and NOAA administrator at a news conference today in Bay St. Louis, Miss. "Forecaster confidence that this will be an active hurricane season is very high."

Above Average Number of Hurricanes To Hit U.S. Mainland in 2005

Less Property Damage Expected than in 2004, Says AccuWeather.com Hurricane Center

(State College, PA - May 16, 2005) - The AccuWeather.com Hurricane Center predicted today that the U.S. mainland would experience an above average number of tropical system landfalls during the 2005 hurricane season. However, the Center's experts predicted that the resulting total property damage in 2005 would be well below that caused by tropical systems in 2004.

The forecast prepared by the AccuWeather.com Hurricane Center expects thirteen named tropical systems in the 2005 season. That number includes both systems that reach hurricane strength and weaker tropical storms. Five of the thirteen storms are expected to hit the U.S. mainland. At least three systems are forecast to be of hurricane strength at landfall, with at least one reaching Category 3 strength (winds of 111-130 mph.) The 2005 hurricane season runs from June 1 to November 30.

"Tropical activity in 2005 will again be above average," said Joe Bastardi, AccuWeather.com Hurricane Center Expert Senior Meteorologist and one of the world's leading hurricane forecasters. "The threat to interests on the U.S. mainland is greatest from North Carolina's Cape Hatteras to the mouth of the Rio Grande River."

Property damage from 2005's storms is not expected to reach the magnitude of the devastating 2005 season. Bastardi projects total damage on the U.S. mainland to reach $6.5 billion in 2005. After making allowance for damage not reported or not covered by insurance and for deductibles, the AccuWeather.com Hurricane Center believes insurance companies are likely to pay out approximately $3.5 billion for tropical storm damage in 2005. Both figures are well below those for the 2004 season.

Bastardi emphasized that this forecast does not mean the public should lower their guard. "Though a repeat this year of the devastating 2004 season seems unlikely, any tropical storm can cause property damage and, tragically, even deaths," said Bastardi.

Even Americans outside the path of actual storms are likely to feel the impact of the 2005 hurricane season. The AccuWeather Hurricane Center also projected that natural gas and oil production in the Gulf of Mexico will be shut down for at least six days in 2005 due to tropical storms.

Tropical storms and hurricanes making landfall in the U.S. usually average between two and three per year. In 2004, nine tropical systems made landfall.

Bastardi and the other AccuWeather.com Hurricane Center meteorologists use a variety of proprietary techniques to determine the annual hurricane outlook, including extensive research of 150 years' worth of hurricane records and a variety of global factors that influence hurricane formation and direction. During the 2004 hurricane season, Bastardi correctly predicted the landfall area for tropical storms an average of 33 hours in advance of the National Hurricane Center.

Among the forecasts of the AccuWeather.com Hurricane Center is Bastardi's unique Hurricane Zone Forecast, which profiles expected damage from tropical systems in ten coastal zones from Brownsville, Texas to Cape Race, Newfoundland. Predictions for the 2004 hurricane season proved to be uncannily accurate. Of the four zones of the U.S. coast predicted in the 2004 Hurricane Zone Forecast to experience the most storm damage, three indeed suffered above-average property damage. The Center will release the 2005 Hurricane Zone Forecast in early June.

Bastardi was also the first to warn - on national television - of the reappearance of The Ghost of Hurricane Ivan. After making an initial landfall on the Gulf Coast and causing extensive inland flooding, remnants of Ivan circled south across the Atlantic and again brought damaging winds to the Florida Peninsula and the Gulf Coast of Louisiana.

AccuWeather.com offers an online Hurricane Center on its free web site at www.accuweather.com. Hurricane information from the AccuWeather.com Hurricane Center is also available via the AccuWeather.com wireless services offered through many wireless carriers. The complete details of Bastardi's 2005 Hurricane Forecast are available on http://professional.accuweather.com - the exclusive source for full access to Joe Bastardi's blogs, video weblogs and long-range forecasts. AccuWeather.com Professional site. That site will post detailed updates throughout the hurricane season.

SOUTHWEST CONDITIONS

This "sloppycast" is based on six years of living in the USA Pacific Southwest, the sunspot counts, planetary alignments, and visual data shown on satellite and radar.

The Sonoran Desert Plain has stumbled into an early Summer heat wave. I am not sure at this point what is in store for the Summer Monsoon.

The past 250 days have clearly broken the drought pattern of the past four years. Some climatologists are arguing that this is an anomalous wet year for the Pacific Southwest and that the drought will reassert itself next year or the year after. I am inclined to think that the drought in the Southwest is a product of both the Sunspot Cycle 23 and the Global Warming syndrome. From this, I suppose that the drought pattern may be somewhat reduced during the next four years during the Sunspot Minima, submerged completely by a lot of rain during El Nino, if it appears, but slowly the drought will reappear during the next climb of sunspot counts during Solar Sunspot Cycle 24.

EL NINO & LA NINA WATCH
The watch is now open again; Pacific water activity appears mostly normal, we are between the extremes of the ENSO; Click here for the NOAA window on the Pacific Ocean Temperatures:

http://www.cdc.noaa.gov/map/clim/sst_olr/sst_animated.gif

BREAKING NEWS:

All previous trend patterns in the equatorial sea surface temperature in the Pacific have collapsed. It is quite clear that there is no El Nino on the way at the current time and no El Nino weather is likely now to be apparent during 2005.

BACKGROUND:

The NOAA website for El Nino has gotten fairly well organized and is far more digestible by laypeople.

Try clicking here to go to the latest NOAA ENSO Home Page.

ADDITIONAL NOTE: The year 2004 and/or 2005, in accordance with the 100 year X Wave Graph of the motion of the spin axis in Chandler’s Wobble, COULD BE EL NINO YEARS. Graphs of various El Nino periods seem to show that the beginning of temperature build-up can occur as late as April of an El Nino year. So 2005 may not be callable until early Spring 2005.

KEEP WATCHING THE ARCTIC, ANTARCTIC, and the desert zones. These areas are the most objective front line observatories of the climate shift.

GLOBAL WARMING

It is becoming obvious that we have a long term real shift in the average temperatures and climate regions related to the latitudes. This climate shift is creating a growing environmental disaster in the polar zones and in the desert-prone latitudes such as in the Pacific Southwest. For the latest short review, see Earth Changes Bulletin Update As Of May 26, 2004 and the Earth Changes Bulletin Update As Of August 18, 2004

BREAKING NEWS:

AS PREVIOUSLY REPORTED:

The main news this past 60 days has been the growing discussion about the growing realization that global warming is real and is a trend to which we still do not know how to react appropriately on a planetary level.

BACKGROUND INFO:

For the most recent global assessment, see this article in the New Yorker Magazine. This is first class journalism which builds a global perspective:

THE CLIMATE OF MAN—I

by ELIZABETH KOLBERT

Disappearing islands, thawing permafrost, melting polar ice. How the earth is changing.

Issue of 2005-04-25
Posted 2005-04-18

http://www.newyorker.com/fact/content/articles/050425fa_fact3

For more perspective from the "vortex" paradigm on the Global Warming issues, go to the Earth Changes Almanac.

IONIZING SOLAR ACTIVITY & MASS BEHAVIOR

BREAKING NEWS

Our calls the past three weeks have been right on the money:

"All emotional conditions now rising. Mass Behavior is becoming more random, stagecrafting is weak and ineffectual…MORE OF THE SAME FOR MAY, WITH CONDITIONS RISING TO CHAOS AND MANY MORE DISRUPTIONS AFFECTING EVERYONE DURING LATE MAY AND JUNE. MAJOR MOOD SWINGS IN THE STOCK MARKETS THROUGHOUT THIS PERIOD."

Since the last two weeks saw amazing riots, near coups, very nervous stock markets up and down, bizarre psycho personal behaviors (kidnappings, murders, etc.), who really needs the numbers, the truth speaks loud and clear here.

As predicted: "Conditions should mellow out for the next week"

NEW PREDICTION HORIZON:

Emotional and weather conditions will upchuck mightily once again in June. Expect a lot of sudden new dramatic developments based on emotional reactions. June should be one very transformative month in many dimensions.

FOR THE NEXT PERIOD

In general, with the falling count of the average monthly Sunspot Count, more and more people are shifting international discussions to elections, compromises, negotiations, diplomacy, renouncing or ending violence, etc.. all within the context set by the Imperial Faction.

It is the next wave and it could take us through to the Fall of 2005. How the coalition shapes up in Iraq is super critical, this powder keg may still blow up and ignite a greater war but the likelihood is diminishing. The Shi'a leadership has stuck it out this long, they are likely to rationally push along Iraq's eventual independence, even it takes another year of slowly manipulating the Imperial Faction out.

CONFIRMATION OF DISCUSSION BELOW: THE ARMED FORCES ARE CONSISTLY FAILING TO MEET THEIR RECRUITMENT GOALS. A SHORTAGE OF U.S. SOLDIERS IS MOUNTING RAPIDLY.

AS OF MAY 18, A SHORTAGE OF U.S. SOLDIERS WILL BE THE NEXT MAJOR U.S. MILITARY SECURITY CRISIS. Some of those burned by their ill-advised involvement in Iraq are now on the speaking circuits advising potential recruits that the entire Iraq War is a cruel hoax initiated and perpetuated by lies and massive media complicity in censoring what we hear. A mass underground culture of rejection of the Imperial recruiting propaganda is growing by leaps and bounds.

Soldiers are dropping their weapons on the tarmac and are walking away in various ways in larger and larger numbers each month. They cannot find enough to replace them…it has become so bad the recruiters are massively cheating, like everyone else in this crooked, corrupt Empire of Pretense.

AT THE MOMENT, TIME IS ON THE SIDE OF REASON AND IS STRONGLY RUNNING AGAINST THE IMPERIAL FACTION..

IN GENERAL FOR 2005-2009 DURING LULLS OF THE SOLAR VORTEX:

AS OBSERVED AS OF DECEMBER 30: As the sunspot counts decline and fail to peak for the planetary alignments, the impact on humans and the biosphere is declining progressively. Relatively more human activity will tend to be more driven by mental activity and spiritual connectivity than emotional impulses.

This is going to be especially true with the four year jag of emotional associations around "patriotism". During 2005, patriotism and martial ardor will become increasingly "old" among the young and the marginal. More and more soldiers will wake up and realize they have been on a "bender" which left them in a literal hellhole.

As solar activity ebbs into low activity levels, have you noticed that the polls are increasingly showing that people think the Tragic Invasion of Iraq was in fact A MISTAKE (now some 60%) and that 65% believe Rumsfeld should go.

People collectively are losing the ardor of blind emotional commitments which the sorcerers in the Mass Broadcast Media and the agents of Hillbilly Sunday whipped up. They are waking up to a wicked hangover in bed with a very ugly mess.

This shift is palpable and will grow in magnitude and depth. The Imperial Faction will stall out rapidly during 2005, it is increasingly unlikely that they will have their way in the Middle East.

EARTHQUAKES

Around the world to see the current and potential patterns of seismic activity, with coverage of the windows of danger. Unless otherwise specified, all quake activity which is discussed is based on the USGS database charts and tables which list quake activity in excess of 2.0 mag. and above. Unfortunately there are many lags in reporting of information about quakes, thus neither the numbers of quakes nor the actual quakes discussed may be complete and accurate. Real time analysis of quake patterns is merely AN APPROXIMATION BASED ON INCOMPLETE INFORMATION. FOR MORE QUAKE INFO RELATED TO SYZYGY WINDOWS, Jim Berkland calculates syzygy windows with considerably more sophistication than I do. See Syzygy.com

Quake activity during the past seven days continued to be muted in frequency as well as magnitude despite the Full Moon and tomorrow's Perigee. The greatest frequency was on May 19 which was five days in advance of the Full Moon. The frequency was at a typical non-syzygy rate and most of the quakes were widely distributed and randomized.

The greatest seismic activity in the world appears in the USGS Database to have occurred along the North Eastern edge of the Asian Plate, from Japan through to Kamchatka Peninsula.

The two largest quakes were near the Equator, a 6.0 quake struck to the South of the Fiji Islands and a 6.3 struck on the coast of the Ecuador/Peru border area, in the zone which produces many volcanoes as well as the infamous El Nino Weather Pattern.

At least 3 shape shifters in the range of 4.2-4.5 struck to the South of Iceland and two more 4.7 quakes struck in the Norwegian Sea and in the North Atlantic, all five of course resulting from the spreading of the Great Rift of the Earth in zones which are called the Mid Atlantic and Rekjennes Ridges.

To these five we can add three quakes in the region of the South Sandwich Islands. These quakes (5.1, 4.7., and 4.3) struck along the edge of the Antarctic Tectonic Plate near its juncture with the Southern Mid Atlantic Ridge zone.

Five quakes struck on the Carib Plate, three along the Northern edge, two on its edge against South America.

Three quakes struck in the Central Mediterranean, including a 4.2 quake in Southern Italy in its volcano belt.

From these quakes we can see that the basic shape-shifting pattern which we identified several weeks ago is still quite actively producing seismic activity around the Earth squared into focal points at roughly 90 degree intervals of Longitude.

As in prior weeks, the activity in the Great Rift in the Atlantic no doubt contributed to an outbreak of quakes along the edges of the Carib plate

There of course is a strong potential for a 6.0 plus quake in California this year, especially in the Southern zone. Everything now seems primed for it. I am still very concerned that the earth is "cocking the trigger" for major tectonic activity which will break out in Central America and ignite El Popo in a catastrophic eruption. This has been predicted in a Costra Nostra Damus Prediction and recently I have discovered that it was also most likely predicted directly by the world famous Michel De Nostredame.

BUT, as previously reported, I am not concerned about the issue of a major tectonic rupture on the North American West Coast this year. I raised the issue several weeks ago but I think that this predicted event, along with an explosive eruption of El Popo, is not likely this year. More likely during one of the next four years. Whatever happens this year will probably be just a harbinger of much greater activity to come, building towards a peak perhaps sometime in 2008-2010.

COSA NOSTRA DAMUS WATCH FOR SOUTH CAL.

SUPER ALERT FOR THIS WATCH!!!

As witnessed by the Indo-Trench Rupture and the aberrant motions of the Earth’s crust, global tectonic motions in the Earth are unstable and obviously are tending to exceptionally explosive releases in the trenches of tectonic collision and in the spreading Great Rift zones.

The Western ledge of the Carib Plate is 180 degrees from the 9.3 quake in the Indo-Trench. Accordingly, the Carib Plate may also release its "shape-shifting" stress during one of the upcoming Lunar syzygies this year. This release could come in the form of major volcanism and major Earthquakes which breaks out first in Central America and then presses the Baja Plate enough to ignite the pattern of earth quakes which are described in the Costa Nostra Damus psychic prediction. We are watching for signals of this possibility very carefully because it will mean life or death for millions of people in Mexico City.

AS PREVIOUSLY OBSERVED: according to the Cosa Nostra Damus Prophecy, a major destructive quake could now strike at any time in Santa Barbara, Santa Monica, Hollywood, the Van Nuys Valley region, Bakersfield, and anywhere along the escarpment of the San Bernardino Mountains. This will be a follow up to the 4.9 quake which was felt in Coos Bay Oregon during July 2004. If a quake occurs near Santa Barbara, warnings will need to be given to Mexico City about the possibility of a major explosive event in Popo.

SLOW EARTH MOVEMENT WATCH

No reports to add this week

SHAPE-SHIFTERS WATCH

The quake activity in the Great Rift is one of the most important harbingers for the Earth Changes Watch to monitor. As the Earth’s crust adjusts its shape in response to gravitational and spin energy vectors, quakes in the Great Rift increase and tectonic activity all around the world increases. (Unless otherwise specified, all quake activity which is discussed is based on the USGS LOCAL AREA database charts and tables which list quake activity in excess of 3.0 mag. and above. Generally most of the quakes which appear in these counts are 4.5 plus in magnitude.) For additional information on Plate Tectonics and charts of the Great Rift of the Earth, go to Plate Tectonics Map

AS PREVIOUSLY REPORTED: The Earth is still slowly adjusting its "tectonic skin" as a result of the Indo-Trench Rupture which began on December 25, 2004. Although the activity related to the rupture is now dwindling rapidly, over a thousand quakes above 5.0 in that zone during the past four months are forcing changes in the shape of Earth in all quadrants.

NEW THIS WEEK:

see discussion above at the beginning of Earthquakes

WEEK’S MOST SIGNIFICANT QUAKES

The continuing quakes in the Mid Atlantic below Iceland this week may be very significant, even though their magnitude is relatively small. Also highly interesting is the 6.3 quake along the coast of Ecuador/Peru. These quakes indicate significant tectonic activity in two zones which are also connected with underwater volcanism, Global Warming, alterations in the currents of the North Atlantic Ocean, and the El Nino Syndrome. These quakes may point to the underlying cause of the Weather oscillations and long term climate shift….underwater tectonic changes, especially related to volcanism and heat release.

NORTH AMERICAN WATCH

Unless otherwise specified, all quake activity which is discussed is based on the USGS LOCAL AREA database charts and tables which list quake activity in excess of 1.0 mag. and above. Generally most of the quakes which appear in these counts are in the range of 1 to 2 in magnitude. Any numbers used in this section may or may not be accurate and may or may not reflect what will eventually appear in scientific databases. IMPORTANT NOTE: Most volcano monitoring sites appear to be screening out microquakes. A study needs to be done to establish how to reconcile various lists and databases because of this practice. The numbers below cannot be considered to be definitive totals and subtotals. We use them merely to observe relative fluctuations from week to week.

Bucking the global trend, seismic activity in North America was down for the past week for quakes in the range of 1.0 and up.

US & ALASKA & ISLANDS --- 585

down from 673 last week

BIG ISLAND HAWAII (not including microswarms) ---19

up from 12 last week.

CALIFORNIA – NEVADA --- 340

down from 485 last week

widely scattered in California and Nevada;

LONG VALLEY - MONO LAKE REGION – 27

up from 26 last week

typical level widely scattered

predominantly Mammoth Lakes

Utah – 30

up from 23 last week

PNW --- 139

down from 142 last week.

still high level, many widely scattered throughout the Puget Sound Basin but dominated 85% by St. Helens activity – 119 mostly for St. Helens down from 157 last week; one for Tahoma (Rainier) and one for Hood.

YELLOWSTONE WATCH

YELLOWSTONE --15

down from 13 last week.

VOLCANOES

Around the world with the most interesting and relevant volcano stories; briefs on the likely eruptions as well as coverage of on-going activity. For information on current eruptions, see the Southwest Volcano Centre. Or see "Breaking Volcano Eruption News".

AS PREVIOUSLY OBSERVED: Observable world volcanic activity increased substantially during March and April, as predicted – by nearly 45%. But then volcanic activity in the active volcanoes ebbed during late March and April. A decrease in activity occurred, perhaps by as much as 20%. By May 11, a small pickup in volcanic activity began – perhaps by as much as 2%. By May 18, Worldwide volcanic activity had increased substantially again, perhaps by as much as 25%.

THIS WEEK'S BREAKING NEWS: Volcanism muted slightly during the past seven days even as the total number of active volcanoes increased from 32 to 33. The main action was at Colima, Mexico, which sent the most vigorous ash plume in ten years up to 30,000 feet, visible for some 150 miles. Colima was accompanied by lava flows on Kilauea, which almost never stops anymore, and some small off and on again ash emissions from a dozen or so active volcanoes around the world.

The Most Dangerous Volcanoes in the USA
Saturday 7th May 2005
The US Geological Survey has released an assessment of volcanic threats in the United States (USGS Open-File Report 2005-1164). The survey assessed 169 active volcanoes in the US, and rated them with a numerical score based on 15 hazard and 10 exposure factors. The hazard and exposure factors were totaled to give the threat assessment in rank order. The authors state the document is not a formal risk assessment, which would require calculating the probabilities of particular hazards occurring at the volcanoes. The report lists 18 volcanoes having very high threat levels. These are (in decreasing threat level): Kilauea (erupting), St Helens (erupting), Rainier, Hood, Shasta, South Sister, Lassen, Mauna Loa (unrest), Redoubt, Crater Lake, Baker, Glacier Peak, Makushin, Akutan, Spurr (unrest), Long Valley, Newberry, and Augustine. Yellowstone is classified as a high threat volcano and rates number 21 on the list. The report aims to provide a framework for a national volcano early warning system, and lists high priority targets for monitoring improvements.
More on Volcanoes of USA...

NO NEW CHANGE IN THIS ITEM - AS PREVIOUSLY REPORTED:

MORE OR LESS, ST. HELENS IS NOW DIRECTLY MIRRORING FOUR SIMILAR VOLCANOES ON THE KAMCHATKA PENINSULA. At the moment it is emitting small amounts of gas and ash while it slowly builds up the top of its central lava dome.

Low level ash and steam emissions are continuing all around the Pacific Rim on all continents.

Another major flare up in activity will probably come during the next 135 days and then slowly ebb away to a low point by the end of the year.

VOLCANO TO WATCH: EREBUS

Major eruptions may occur in the deep South as well. AS QUOTED FROM SWVC: "As of the 11th of February, the Mt. Erebus Volcano Observatory (MEVO) reports

http://www.swvrc.org/cerupt.htm

that there has never been an eruption, or set of eruptions like this in the recorded history of Mt. Erebus. On February 7th from 5am UTC to 11am UTC there were 31 documented eruptions. All of the events had very clear Infrasound signals, however many of them were relatively small. The larger events had very clear Infrared signals (most predominantly at RAY). The eruptive swarm peaked from 0700 UTC to 0800 UTC.

Mt. Erebus (3794 meters above sea level) is classified as a polygenetic stratovolcano. The composition of the current eruptive activity on Mt. Erebus is anorthoclase-phyric tephriphonolite and phonolite, which constitute the bulk of exposed lava flow on the volcano. The oldest eruptive products from Mt. Erebus consist of relatively undifferentiated and non-viscous basanitic lavas that form the low, broad platform shield of the Erebus edifice. Slightly younger basanites and phonotephrite lavas crop out on Fang Ridge, an eroded remnant of an early Erebus volcano and at other isolated locations on the flanks of the Mt. Erebus edifice.

Mt. Erebus located on Ross Island, Antarctica is the world’s southern-most active volcano. Discovered in 1841 by James Ross, it is one of only a very few volcanoes in the world with a long-lived (decades or more) lava lake. Scientific research, sponsored by the U.S. National Science Foundation (NSF) since began the early 1970’s had included basic study of the petrology and geophysics of the volcano, the eruptive history, activity and degassing behavior of the lava lake, and the overall impact of the volcano on the Antarctica and global environment. Research on Mt. Erebus has been primarily conducted by scientists in the Department of Earth and Environmental Science and the Bureau of Geology and Mineral resources at the New Mexico Institute of Technology.

The Current Color Code for Mt. Erebus is ORANGE. The Mt. Erebus volcano in Antarctica was successfully forecasted by SWVRC's programme ERUPTION Pro 10.5 to erupt in 2005 with 100% probability."

WHAT TO EXPECT FROM THIS POINT: Anything on the Carib Plate (East, West, North, or South) is in danger of major tectonic activity during the next 90 days, especially around the Perigeen New Moons. To this list I would add the Northern Arc of the Pacific Rim of Fire, especially on Kamchatka, Alaska, and St. Helens.

SAINT HELENS VOLCANO UPDATES

Text in this section is a condensation of direct quotes from online source:

Latest Update supplied by the U.S. Geological Survey, Vancouver, Washington; University of Washington, Pacific Northwest Seismograph Network, Seattle, Washington; U.S. Geological Survey, Vancouver, Washington; University of Washington, Pacific Northwest Seismograph Network, Seattle, Washington

Wednesday, May 25, 2005 8:32 a.m. PDT (1532 UTC)

MOUNT ST. HELENS UPDATE

Conditions remain as described on May 18, 2005 - "Current status is Volcano Advisory (Alert Level 2); aviation color code ORANGE: Growth of the new lava dome inside the crater of Mount St. Helens continues, accompanied by low rates of seismicity, low emissions of steam and volcanic gases, and minor production of ash. During such eruptions, changes in the level of activity can occur over days to months. The eruption could intensify suddenly or with little warning and produce explosions that cause hazardous conditions within several miles of the crater and farther downwind. Small lahars could suddenly descend the Toutle River if triggered by heavy rain or by interaction of hot rocks with snow and ice. These lahars pose a negligible hazard below the Sediment Retention Structure (SRS) but could pose a hazard along the river channel upstream."

"Potential ash hazards: Wind forecasts from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), coupled with eruption models, show that any ash clouds that rise above the crater rim today would drift north-northeastward. Under such wind conditions, Johnston Ridge Observatory and other areas near the east end of SR 504 could receive ash fall if there were an ash-producing event.

"Potential ash hazards to aviation: Under current eruptive conditions, small, short-lived explosions may produce ash clouds that exceed 30,000 feet in altitude. Ash from such events can travel 100 miles or more downwind.

"Recent observations: Although seismicity and ground deformation in the crater remain at relatively low rates, the volcano marks the 25th anniversary of its major 1980 eruption in a state of active eruption. It is building a second lava dome in its crater. However, clouds and rain obscure views of the volcano, and likely will do so for a few more days. The weather forecast for the next few days suggests that snow will be accumulating on the crater floor and upper flanks."

For additional information, background, images, and other graphics: http://vulcan.wr.usgs.gov/News/framework.html

For seismic information: http://www.pnsn.org/HELENS/welcome.html

For a definition of alert levels: http://vulcan.wr.usgs.gov/News/framework.html

Telephone recordings with the latest update on Mount St. Helens and phone contacts for additional information can be heard by calling: Media (360) 891-5180 General public (360) 891-5202

OTHER CASCADE VOLCANOES as of May Day 25 2005
Same source as above.

As reported last week - "Volcanoes in the Cascade Range are all at normal levels of background seismicity. These include Mount Baker, Glacier Peak, Mount Rainier, and Mount Adams Mount in Washington State; Mount Hood, Mount Jefferson, Three Sisters, Newberry, and Crater Lake, in Oregon; and Medicine Lake, Mount Shasta, and Lassen Peak in northern California."

LATEST FORECAST FOR SAINT HELENS BY EC BULLETIN:

March-2 2005: The three active eruptions (still small) on Kamchatka Peninsula, one in the Kurile Islands, and a new one on Atka Island in the Aleutians, along and the continued steady increase in seismic activity around St. Helens most likely means that this prediction below is on track for major activity during the next four months:

I EXPECT VIGOROUS ERUPTIONS ON BOTH SIDES OF THE PACIFIC SOMETIME BY SUMMER EQUINOX.

Look for the next increase in eruptive behavior in St. Helens to occur in tandem with an increase in activity on Kamchatka Peninsula and/or in Alaska. Activity among these volcanoes will progressively increase and reach a peak in the period of May – July.

AS OBSERVED LAST MONTH: At least three of the active volcanoes on Kamchatka Peninsula are behaving in many ways very similar to St. Helens. Perhaps we shall see these four volcanoes, which are in the Northern Arc of the Pacific Rim of Fire, flare up virtually simultaneously.

AS REPORTED PREVIOUSLY: Colima may be the closest "model" for how St. Helens may behave during the next few years. Both may erupt off and on with lava flows, as Colima does now from week to week, or with occasional ash plumes, then slowly stewing for weeks and months on end while merely steaming like nearly two dozen other volcanoes around the world, steaming until the next eruptive episode of ash and lava, which may last from a few days to several months. More probable than not, St. Helens will have sudden flare-offs and a few major ash plumes during the next year, but no major, explosive eruption which comes even close to its 1980 eruption. It will continue to sporadically emit steam and ash like Colima and Popo for the next few years. How much and how vigorously remains unpredictable.

Here are the SWVC volcanic activity numbers as of May Day 25 2004: (SWVC does it annual database cleaning and new predictions at the beginning of the year, accordingly its numbers in early January "break" sequence with the last numbers in December).

7 on restless list (could go on active list at any moment) (same as last week)

54 on alert list – same as 51 last week (alert list are volcanoes with pre-cursor activities suggesting that activity may begin)

33 on active list (seismic, gas, steam, lava, ash, or explosive activity) (up from 32 as of last week).

Popo gave an 10 puff day yesterday. Centrapred reports for May Day 25 (17:00 GMT) that "In the last 24 hours, the monitoring system of Popocatpetl volcano recorded 10 exhalations accompanied by steam and gas. At the moment of this report we can partially see the volcano due to the clouds. During this morning we could observe the volcano with some small steam and gas emissions. The traffic light of volcanic alert is in YELLOW-1. Access is restricted in a radius of 12 km from the crater. The road between Santiago Xalitzintla (Puebla) and San Pedro Nexapa (Mexico State), including Paso de Cortes, is open to controlled traffic. However, it is not permitted to remain within the 12 Km restricted area."

HIGHLY INTERESTING NEW PLATE TECTONICS RESOURCE:

Digital World Tectonic Activity Map (DTAM) - visualization tool that presents an actual representational view of global tectonics; created using current global datasets of seismicity, volcanism, and plate motions.

MOST ACTIVE VOLCANOES THIS WEEK

FOR THE LASTEST REPORTS ON ACTIVE VOLCANOES COMPILED BY THE SOUTHWEST VOLCANO CENTER, SEE http://www.swvrc.org/cerupt.htm

Or go to Volcano Breaking News by Volcanologist John Seach

Volcano Travel: john@volcanolive.com

http://www.volcanolive.com/volcanolive.html

Dates in red are posted in Eastern Australian Time (UT + 10 hr)

Some Recent Reports Below From John Seach

Warnings were issued about Galeras and Dukono.

The only major eruptive activity this past seven days began yesterday on Colima

Colima Volcano Mexico
19.514 N,103.62 W, summit elevation 3850 m, Stratovolcano
Friday 24th May 2005

Most vigorous ash eruption in ten years…
More on Colima Volcano...
Volcanoes of Mexico...

Standing Assessment: Likely, it is fair to conclude that the not-so-invisible Black Arts Nation, from HAARP to the Navy, to the Bush/Ashcroft prisons in Iraq/Afghanistan and Cuba, not to mention many other technologies, areas, and programs, are far out of ethical, moral, constitutional, and treaty control, as has been widely feared.

BLACK ARTS NATION

"GITMO" AND THE CIA BLACK ARTS GULAG ARE INDEFENSIBLE IN THE OPINION OF HUMANKIND:

Each month the Euro peoples and others are progressively eroding away the rationalizations, denials, and games of the Imperial Faction in their maintenance of a far-flung international conspiracy to systematically break both U.S. laws and international treaties to hold anyone they "think" might be opposing U.S. anti-terrorism activities. Both the International Red Cross and Amnesty International are now on record in detailing the crimes of the Bush Family Junta and their sycophants. Even FBI records substantiate the international complaints (and the recent Newsweek Magazine article about the Koran).

FBI Records Cite Quran Abuse Allegations

AP – May 25, 2005

WASHINGTON - Terror suspects at the Guantanamo Bay prison told U.S. interrogators as early as April 2002, just four months after the first detainees arrived, that military guards abused them and desecrated the Quran, declassified FBI records say. "Their behavior is bad," one detainee is quoted as saying of his guards during an interrogation by an FBI special agent in July 2002. "About five months ago the guards beat the detainees. They flushed a Quran in the toilet."

Amnesty Takes Aim at 'Gulag' in Guantanamo

(watch the word wrap on the URL)

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20050525/ap_on_re_eu
/britain_amnesty_report

By PAISLEY DODDS, Associated Press Writer

1 hour, 5 minutes ago

LONDON - Amnesty International castigated the U.S. prison camp in Guantanamo Bay as a failure Wednesday, calling it "the gulag of our time" in the human rights group's harshest rebuke yet of American detention policies.

Amnesty urged Washington to shut down the prison at the U.S. Navy's base in Guantanamo Bay, Cuba, where some 540 men are held on suspicion of links to Afghanistan's ousted Taliban regime or the al-Qaida terror network. Some have been jailed for more than three years without charge.

White House spokesman Scott McClellan said Amnesty's complaints were "ridiculous and unsupported by the facts." He said allegations of prisoner mistreatment are investigated.

"We hold people accountable when there's abuse. We take steps to prevent it from happening again. And we do so in a very public way for the world to see that we lead by example and that we do have values that we hold very dearly and believe in," McClellan told reporters.

In its annual report, Amnesty accused governments around the world of abandoning human rights protections. It said Sudan failed to protect its people from one of the world's worst humanitarian crises and charged Haiti promoted human rights abusers.

But one of the biggest disappointments in the human rights arena was with the United States, Amnesty said, "after evidence came to light that the U.S. administration had sanctioned interrogation techniques that violated the U.N. Convention against Torture."

"Guantanamo has become the gulag of our time," Amnesty Secretary General Irene Khan said as the London-based group issued a 308-page annual report that accused the United States of shirking its responsibility to set the bar for human rights protections.

The use of the term gulag refers to the extensive system of prison camps in the former Soviet Union, many in remote regions of Siberia and specifically designed to hold political prisoners. The Soviets took over the system from the czarist government and expanded it after the 1917 Bolshevik Revolution. Untold thousands of prisoners of the so-called gulags died from hunger, cold, harsh treatment and overwork.

The prison camp at Guantanamo has been in the spotlight over the past year since the FBI cited cases of aggressive interrogation techniques and detainee mistreatment. The U.S. government has also been criticized for not charging or trying prisoners who are classified as enemy combatants, a vague distinction with fewer legal protections than prisoners of war get under the Geneva Conventions.

Some prisoners have challenged their detentions in U.S. courts but their cases are stalled by appeals filed by the U.S. government and subsequent arguments.

"Not a single case from some 500 men has reached the courts," Khan said.

In a statement, the Defense Department said that "the detention of enemy combatants is not criminal in nature, but to prevent them from continuing to fight against the United States in the War on Terrorism."

It also said that it continued to evaluate whether detainees should be sent home and that review tribunals "provided an appropriate venue for detainees to meaningfully challenge their enemy combatant designation."

"This is an unprecedented level of process being provided to our enemies in a time of war," the statement said.

The Geneva-based International Committee of the Red Cross, which has also been critical of practices at Guantanamo, is the only independent group to have access to the detainees. Amnesty has been refused access to the prison, although it was allowed to watch pretrial hearings for 15 detainees who have been charged.

Amnesty has frequently criticized U.S. detention policies instituted after the Sept. 11 terror attacks, but its latest report takes a harsher tone. It accuses Washington of trying to "sanitize" abuse of detainees and failing to give prisoners legal recourse to challenge their detentions.

The report also takes aim at recent abuse allegations that have surfaced in FBI documents as well as prisoner testimonies, echoing concerns from the International Committee of the Red Cross.

The Red Cross said last week it had told U.S. authorities of detainee allegations that Qurans had been desecrated. It also offered a rare public rebuke in late 2003, calling the prisoners' prolonged detentions "worrying."

Declassified FBI records released Wednesday showed that prisoners at Guantanamo Bay told U.S. interrogators as early as April 2002, just four months after the first detainees arrived from Afghanistan, that U.S. military guards abused them and desecrated the Quran.

Another detainee stated he had been beaten unconscious at Guantanamo Bay early in 2002, a period in which U.S. interrogators were pressing hard for information on al-Qaida.

Amnesty singled out Sudan as one of the worst violators of human rights last year for the devastation caused by conflict in its Darfur region. At least 180,000 people have died — many from hunger and disease — and about 2 million have fled their homes to escape fighting among rebels, militias and government troops.

Sudan's government not only turned its back on its people, but the United Nations and African Union took too long to try to help those suffering in Darfur, Amnesty said.

Amnesty also criticized the African Union and the international community for not taking action on Zimbabwe, where President Robert Mugabe's party has been accused of rigging elections, repressing opponents and driving agriculture to the brink of collapse.

In Haiti, human rights violators who led the rebellion that ousted President Jean-Bertrand Aristide last year were able to retake key positions, while the government struggled to maintain control from armed groups, Amnesty said.

The group accused Israeli soldiers of operating outside international law by using torture, destroying property and obstructing medical assistance in the West Bank and Gaza. It also condemned the deliberate targeting of Israeli civilians by Palestinian militants.

In Asia, people were jailed indefinitely without trial in Malaysia and Singapore, religious minorities were persecuted in China and Vietnam and security forces committed extra-judicial killings in Nepal, Thailand and Indonesia, Amnesty said.

EXCELLENT DOSSIER ON DU: (THAT'S DEPLETED URANIUM)

click here for many more links on this topic

DU Dossier - 50% of Gulf War Vet's Now On Permanent Medical Disability

MWM: This Black Arts Nation war was supposed to have only some 100 U.S. casualties. Apparently DU poisoning is now scientifically beyond deniability and is beginning to rip fault lines through the U.S. Government.

Heads Roll at Veterans Administration

Mushrooming Depleted Uranium Scandal Blamed

by Bob Nichols

Project Censored Award Winner

'Depleted

Considering the tons of depleted uranium used by the U.S., the Iraq War can truly be called a nuclear war.

Monday, February 28, 2005 -- Preventive Psychiatry E-Newsletter charged today that the reason Veterans Affairs Secretary Anthony Principi stepped down earlier this month was the growing scandal surrounding the use of uranium munitions in the Iraq War.

Writing in Preventive Psychiatry E-Newsletter No. 169, Arthur N. Bernklau, executive director of Veterans for Constitutional Law in New York, stated, "The real reason for Mr. Principi's departure was never given. However, a special report published by eminent scientist Leuren Moret naming Depleted Uranium (DU) as the definitive cause of the Gulf War Syndrome has fed a growing scandal about the continued use of uranium munitions by the US military."

"The VA Secretary (Principi) was aware of this fact as far back as 2000," wrote Bernklau. "He and the Bush administration have been hiding these facts, but now, thanks to Moret’s report, it is far too big to hide or cover up. The long-term effects have revealed that DU (uranium oxide) is a virtual death sentence."

Bernklau continues, "This malady from uranium munitions, from which thousands of our military have suffered and died, has finally been identified as the cause of this sickness, eliminating the guessing. The terrible truth is now being revealed."

He adds, "Out of the 580,400 soldiers who served in the first Gulf War, 11,000 are now dead. By the year 2000, 325,000 were on permanent medical disability. This astounding number of disabled vets means that a decade later, 56 percent of those soldiers who served have some form of permanent medical problem."

The disability rate for most of the wars of the last century was 5 percent; and it was higher for the Vietnam War at 10 percent.

Terry Jamison, Public Affairs Specialist at the Department of Veterans Affairs, recently reported that since 1991, 518,739 Gulf Era veterans are now on medical disability.

Marion Fulk, a nuclear physical chemist who retired from the Lawrence Livermore Nuclear Weapons Lab and was involved with the Manhattan Project, interprets the new and rapid malignancies in the soldiers from the 2003 Iraq War as "spectacular ... and a matter of concern."

When asked if the main purpose of using DU was for "destroying things and killing people," Fulk was more specific. "I would say it is the perfect weapon for killing lots of people."

References

http://www.sfbayview.com/081804/Depleteduranium081804.shtml

"Dirty bombs, dirty missiles, dirty bullets: A death sentence here and abroad" by Leuren Moret.

* Veterans for Constitutional Law, 112 Jefferson Ave., Port Jefferson NY 11777, Arthur N. Bernklau, executive director, (516) 474-4261, fax 516-474-1968.

* Preventive Psychiatry E-Newsletter. Email Gary Kohls, mailto:gkohls@cpinternet.com?subject=Subscribe

gkohls@cpinternet.com, with "Subscribe" in the subject line.

Weather Modification: as previously observed

Many psychics have predicted it. Many scientists are reporting details on aspects of it. BUT THE WEATHER ITSELF MAY BE THE FINAL WITNESS. What ever is happening with the Wacky Weather over North America this Winter, I am now hostile to the idea that it is either induced by the Sunspot Cycle or by Global Warming. Things are too too…

too kinky…

too extreme…

I have been trying for the past few years to connect as much phenomenon as possible into the cycles of the vast solar vortex. That sure did work well during the peak of Sunspot Cycle 23 and it will again during the next peak. But right now, as we descend into the Solar Minima, something else is must be happening. Anybody heard from The Shadow lately? We need "detectives" to track this "something else" down.

AS PREVIOUSLY REPORTED: The Iway and the bookstores are awash with the outings of the Black Arts Nation.

BUT THERE IS NO CHANGE THIS WEEK IN ACTION WHICH IS AIMED AT DEALING WITH IT

Have we passed the point of no return? Should we just admit to ourselves that the Junta won and we live in a seedy third-rate banana republic which is devolving rapidly into the autocracy of nowhereville?

Riddle this one! Can you answer it?

HOPEFULLY THE DU CONTROVERSY WILL BREAK THE LOGJAM

In the meantime, it looks like civilized people are being taken collectively to the cleaners and once again their noses are being rubbed in the realization that after all, this is NOT a civilization, it is a masquerade.

So far the scandals are being kept in the closets of Washington DC. Like Votescam 2004, the clear evidence of a military intelligence corps which is out of control and half off its rockers should be big news, not to mention the growing international interest in pulling down Rumsfeld with indictments to eat his own words.

But very little is manifesting in actual dynamics of change.

Except this: through the Iway the web of connections is being spun in greater and greater detail, in better and better fidelity and precision. It is ONLY through the Iway that the web of corruption is going to be fully spun. I think it is well worth the spinning, eventually events will conspire to bring Humpty Dumpty into question. If their wicked web has been reasonably spun out into completion, suddenly it will have the strength of a rope, with the power to hang Humpty Dumpty, or pull him down from the Wall.

BUT AS OBSERVED LAST YEAR. The auguries are not clear to me this past two weeks on how any of this is going, or even if any of this IS going anywhere during the next several months. If none of this goes anywhere, take it as a given, take it as a fact, that all is lost on the Republic and we have passed into in the deep twilight zone of a Fascist nightmare for which there may not be any electoral remedy…at least not while we are mired within the deep sorcery which the Mass Broadcast Media now casts in greater depth all around us. It is as if after the elections they turned up the volume of manipulation by at least a half turn of the knob.

Despite impeccable scientific reasoning, high caliber informed observers and investigators, the story of the stolen elections simply will not be told in America through the corporatized media. By their acts, said the good saint, ye shall know them. Doubtless, we are in very deep doodoo and, with few exceptions, the only things allowed on TV are a bunch of chickens clucking through the mire.

ECONOMY WATCH

Little change from past weeks.

But keep in mind: there is underway one last cycle of inflation in the Imperial Bubble, focused predominately on real estate. "Economic growth" in gross corporate revenues and personal incomes appears to be focused predominately around the continued inflation in real estate values.

All real production conditions continue to deteriorate. The giant sucking sound is louder than ever, pulling jobs and product production overseas. Knowing and seeing that prosperity based on spending borrowed (real estate mortgages) money will not last, the economic Bears predominate and are found prowling the entire economic landscape, waiting in anticipation.

Other than real estate, bulls are hard to find, unless you count the turn-over shills of the New York brokers. And as all previous generations of investors have learned many times, counting the New York shills is about as useful as counting on the hot air of your own fantasy life.

A vast inflation was setting in, and indeed real estate and construction are still going up…but most likely not for long.

ALL SIGNALS MIXED, THE ECONOMY IS "WOBBLING" WITH VERY LITTLE "GOOD NEWS" OR HOPES. As throughout most of 2004, there are still no signs of a general recovery of the classic 20^th century kind. MOST COMMENTARY AND EXPECTATIONS ARE PESSIMISTIC FOR 2005. The most optimistic projections appear to be in the nature of "holding" firm with small improvements. The worst expectations are dire indeed.

I predict that most of the expectations will turn sour after June. I also predict that they will become more and more morose as the economy begins to show a rapid movement into recession during the later part of the year and then clearly moves into depression in 2006.

THE STAGFLATION OF THE LAST HALF OF 2004 AND EARLY 2005 MAY ALREADY BE LOSING MOMENTUM. This means that real demand is dropping even as people grab up cheap mortgages to purchase more real estate.

AS PREVIOUSLY OBSERVED: The economy will never regain any sense of confidence in government efforts to build the basis for more solid growth. The Bush administration will continue to lose credibility, will come under severe legal pressure from wide ranging indictments, perhaps even impeachment proceedings (long overdue), and this gathering loss of political confidence will destroy corporate confidence. This loss of confidence may be experienced first in Europe and Japan, even China, which may bring the recessionary pressures home to the U.S. with a rapid decline in demand for American products and a shrinking profit base for American companies overseas.

AS OBSERVED IN DECEMBER: With the re-election of George Bush a completely new scenario for the next two years is needed. It is this: the main driving force of the economy will transition fully into an Imperial economy. It will be based on major militarization of the U.S. to AMP up Empire Building for general export. We may be as in Germany as in approximately 1934-6. During the 1930’s, while much of the world was mired in a deep depression, Germany, Italy, and Japan under the Fascists (Corporate National Plutocracy) prospered in a wave of tremendous prosperity for their workers. The Fascists terminated all external debt to the international banks and recycled their currencies highly astutely without the need to finance debt. That is why Hitler, Mussolini, and the Japanese Militarists were so fervently supported.

A massive empire building drive to export "Order" over the greater portion of the world’s petroleum reserves will shore up the value of the petro dollar quite nicely and preserve its hegemony well through the "peak oil" period. Huge expenditures on armaments should provide a continuing stimulus of the North American economy, enough to at least keep it gimping along while the Empire is consolidated.

The eventual eclipse of well oil poses no long term problem. Only naïve analysts are worried. Once oil supply is seriously declining and oil prices can be maintained above $80/barrel, some people in the oil industry, including David Rockefeller, understand the means of "growing" your own. They have held the secrets of this for some 23 years.

THE ONLY BUMP ON THE ROAD TO THE IMPERIAL ECONOMY is "global warming". This is bringing people into other solutions than the use of oil. Is this not a course of development the cabals of great wealth in America must resist as strongly as they can? If this is correct, we would expect that a great political struggle will be waged on both sides of this global warming issue. We should expect to see that the Republicrats will resist encouraging a replacement for oil even to the very bitter end. Without dominance over oil, their feudalized world will dissolve away from them.

GENERAL PREDICTION DJI AVERAGES

The high point was near 10,811 in March and I believe THAT was the high point. I believe that it is all downslide from here.

THIS WEEK

The DJI finished May Day 25 at 10,457.80 which is about the same as 10,464.45 last week. The market will continue to bobble in this range for a few weeks.

DON’T PLAN ON ANYTHING HIGHER THIS YEAR

AS OBSERVED DURING 2004: WATCH THIS VERY CAREFULLY – WAR IN THE MIDDLE EAST IS THE PRIMARY FACTOR DRIVING OIL UP IN PRICE AND ACCELERATING THE DECLINE IN THE DOLLAR. The dollar of course is a major factor. As the dollar drops AND the stock values remain constant, U.S. stocks will become suddenly cheaper for foreign investors and they may begin to convert to buy U.S. stocks. This also will firm up values when it occurs, but I have no idea where the conversion points are. This is all a complex equation which could go sideways at any moment. THE MAIN PROVISO IS AL QAEDA. IF AND When they strike in the U.S. again, they will trump all else.

"WORLD CONFIDENCE MAY IMPROVE FOR A WHILE if a Shiite coalition can take power in Iraq through the elections and motivate Bush to substantially withdraw American troops."

EURO WATCH

The dollar closed today at 0.7936 per euro, which is up nearly a half a cent over last week's 0.7888 per euro. It continues to be stronger at the moment than most of this year so far. This situation is of course highly volatile. In general, stock and dollar will trend down as oil trends up. Oil was trending down because of weakening demand, but the increasing prices this week suggest that the euro will now soften.

Interesting article on current dynamics of currency markets

http://biz.yahoo.com/rb/050119/markets_forex_8.html

Did you know that corporations have a special "deal" this year which allows them to repatriate billions of dollars in foreign profits by paying a surcharge of only $.05 per dollar in lieu of the regular 35% tax rate.

Thus in general, expect a steady if slow creep of prices upward all through 2005, with faster relative increases for some basic commodities and imports to reflect rapidly rising international costs, which will still accelerate in response to the rise in energy costs this past six months.

MUST READ: "The Dollar Panics" in "The Coming Economic Collapse of 2006", which lays out the dynamics of what is happening.

LATEST OVERVIEW ON OIL: As of May 25, 2005

NEW YORK (AP) -- Crude oil prices climbed more than $1 to close near the $51 mark after U.S. crude inventories fell 1.6 million barrels, the second drop in 15 weeks.

Light, sweet crude for July delivery rose $1.31 to $50.98 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange, after hitting $51.60 earlier in the day. Heating oil prices rose more than 4 cents to $1.4284 a gallon, while unleaded gasoline rose more than 2 cents to $1.4517 a gallon.

On the International Petroleum Exchange, Brent crude rose $1.25 to $50.07.

The U.S. Energy Information Administration's midweek petroleum data showed U.S. commercial crude oil inventories fell 1.6 million barrels to 332.4 million barrels in the week ending May 20 from the previous week. It is just the second decline in 15 weeks. Still, inventories are 31.8 million barrels higher than year-ago levels.

Analysts had anticipated another rise in crude.

"The market was so accustomed to see builds in crude stocks, so they were shocked to see a drop," said Phil Flynn, analyst at Alaron Trading Corp. in Chicago. "That's why you see this buying kick in."

Meanwhile, U.S. gasoline inventories rose 600,000 barrels to 215.4 million barrels, up from 203.6 million a year ago. Most analysts had predicted a decline in gasoline stocks.

Distillates rose 1.9 million barrels to 105.7 million, up from 104.7 million last year but still in the lower half of the average range for this time of year. High sulfur distillates, or heating oil, comprised most of that increase, rising 1.6 million barrels to 39.7 million barrels, up from 35.9 million a year ago.

Crude prices are about $7 lower than their all-time high of $58.28 set April 4.

After several weeks of market bearishness, this decline in crude could signal the end of this season's crude builds, said Michael Guido, director of commodity strategy in New York for bank Societe Generale.

"It sets the tone for a seasonal draw period in crude -- the market is trading off that as well," Guido said.

Wednesday's rally in crude futures was also helped by U.S. durable goods and housing figures, Flynn said.

Orders to U.S. factories for big-ticket manufactured goods shot up 1.9 percent last month, and sales of new homes hit an all-time high. These are signs of a strengthening economy, which means demand for oil will likely rise.

Economist Andy Xie of Morgan Stanley Asia in Hong Kong said there is a common perception among traders now that there is some "tightness in refinery capacity."

"There hasn't been a lot of investments in this sector, and if it's not rectified, the bullish sentiment among traders will remain powerful," Xie said.

Noises from key OPEC nations about possibly reducing production also put some upward pressure on prices. Joining such suggestions from Venezuela, Iranian Oil Minister Bijan Zanganeh said Wednesday that the option of cutting output is "something that needs to be discussed."

Tanker-tracker Petrologistics said this week that the 11 members of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries boosted output an estimated 430,000 barrels a day to 30.05 million barrels a day.

Such high OPEC output has kept markets relatively calm, but Western concerns remain about too much dependence on the group. The inauguration Wednesday of the first section of an 1,100-mile U.S.-backed pipeline bringing Caspian Sea oil to Western markets was meant to reduce such worries.

Kenney said that once fully operational the pipeline will represent a "significant" addition to Western oil supplies, although the time needed to fill it means "you won't see exports until the later part of the year."

Crude prices climbed Tuesday, after rumors of a shutdown at Exxon Mobil Corp.'s Baytown refinery in Texas. Benchmark commodity settled 51 cents higher at $49.67 per barrel on Tuesday after rising as high as $49.94 per barrel. However, on Wednesday, Treacy A. Roberts, senior advisor of ExxonMobil Baytown Area Public Affairs, said that "the Baytown Refinery is operating normally."

The high price points at the pump established last Fall look permanent. It does not look like retail prices will ever again be South of where they currently are.

We are going to have a pretty vigorous STAGFLATION for 2005 and average wholesale prices are likely to continue an upward drift, somewhere in the range of 10% to 30% in many areas of the economy.

However, the current prices at the pump are probably near peak, unless the oil industry is disrupted by Al Qaeda or other terrorist groups.

HIGH PRICE PRESSURES CAN NO LONGER BE RESISTED BECAUSE ALL OF THE WORLD POLITICAL STRUGGLES ARE NOW POLARIZING AROUND THE STRUGGLE FOR OIL. Oil has become in the minds of all those seeking power as THE ONLY SOURCE OF POWER in the world today. Between the bankers and the terrorists, we are likely to see a continued increase in the price, though it should be slower during the next several months.

PREDICTED IN FEBRUARY 2005: HERE IS THE ARCHILLES HEEL OF EMPIRE: It seems more probable than not, reading the tea leaves and listening to Seymour Hersh and other internationalists, that the main irrational and "upsetting factor" in the world at this juncture is the aggressive plan which the Imperial Faction would like to pursue in Iran. Any effort to beat the war drums in that direction will unify the Eurasian powers to "clip the wings" of the Empire. They will do it with a concerted program to push down the value of the dollar sufficient to swamp the U.S. economy in such high international costs that it will not be able to sustain an expansionary war effort. They will accomplish this feat by stopping their purchase of U.S. banking debt and bond instruments. Under these circumstances, oil prices in dollar terms could double while they remain the same in euro terms.

ALL THIS IS ON COURSE AS OF APRIL 27. Putin is clearly making a major effort to create an Eurasian Grand Alliance to work in parallel with the growing alliance between Iran and Venezuela-Ecuador. The Petro Dollar will not survive the Bush Administration and American Hegemony will be "surrounded" more and more by a unified wall of world opinion.

SURVIVAL WATCH

FOOD WATCH

For latest info, see the Earth Changes Bulletin Update as of July 7, 2004

JOB WATCH

SIGN OF THE TIMES: Ken Lay, who is now widely described as the biggest corporate swindler of all time, is still scott free. (ONE OF THE WORST ECONOMIC TERRORISTS OF ALL TIME). But now finally after waiting for two or so years, Lay has been indicted. Notice the timing, near the end of the first term of the Bush Administration. At this time I will hazard the guess that he will be pardoned by Bush during the final days of his administration, probably December of this year. ANOTHER NEARLY EQUAL SIGN OF THE TIMES: The lawyers who have been settling the Enron collapse for all parties, are billing the remaining net assets of Enron for approximately $1 billion for their services. This is a new heavenly-ordained definition for the term Chutzpah. I CALL IT CLASS ECONOMIC TERRORISM.

POLITICAL WATCH

For general overview on the Tragedy in Iraq and the Bureau-Political Civil War in Washington DC, I highly recommend Tom Dispatch.

AS PREVIOUSLY OBSERVED – NO CHANGE.

THE WHOLE SCENE GROWS MORE SURREAL WITH EACH WEEK: A STRANGE SORT OF "AMELICAN GRAFFITI" SEEMS TO HAVE TAKEN OVER EVERYTHING.

Kookiness has seized complete control of Washington DC, but this only puts the coming tragi-farce of the American political meltdown into starker, more obvious relief. All conditions as projected by this writer and most of the populist press are accelerating at a brisk pace.

Bush's policies are nearly universally rejected around the world, brutal operations procedures and war doctrines, not to mention incompetence and pervasive denial and lying, are steadily destroying the fragments of what was left of the legitimacy of the American Military Machine, Eurasian and Oil Producer alliances are forming up tightly to begin a world campaign to restrain and block the Imperial Faction, Venezuela and Iran are making arrangements, Syria is craftily setting up Israel and the U.S. to collide with Hezbollah, which is the most dominant force in Lebanon, and Putin is bidding to create an Eurasian peace process for the Mid East, the U.S. be damned.

Meanwhile, international inflation of commodity prices IN DOLLAR terms is accelerating briskly and will bring in the next recession-becoming-depression sometime in 2006, the strong U.S. domestic pressure and ultra easy credit to increase the size of the East Coast Boomer Bubble is AT peak. EVERY WHERE BEARS RULE AND BULLS ARE IN RETREAT, the DJIA will not crack 11,000 DJIA and appears to be already skating towards the big skid for the Big Dump in 2006.

The Democratic Faux Centrists and Clintonistas are folding solidly into an acutely sad, uncomfortable sack of metooism with the Imperial Faction, revealing clearly who they are, meanwhile of course the most extreme cold war hawks and right wing fascists in North America have seized control of all agencies of the U.S. Government.

The Mass Hysteria Broadcast Media is busy diverting everyone's attention with a never-ending stream of completely irrelevant did-he-do-it soap operas while the plutocrats continue to steal all sensibility from Planet Earth - all domestic programs and regulations are being bludgeoned and blackjacked daily in the alleys of Washington DC by the plutocrats and their agents while a super-sized IMPERIAL BONUS in being prepared for the American People: PLANS STILL APPEAR TO BE WELL UNDERWAY to mobilize the drive to destroy the independent culture and government of Iran, all the better to seize complete hegemony of the Persian Gulf oil fields and force the world to consume the PETRO-DOLLAR and the American Imperial Machine.

And so it goes. YOU WILL NEED TO WHINE MUCH LOUDER lest you soon be floating in a sea of oil you can no longer afford to buy because a couple million conscripted Central Americans are busy fighting in the Middle East under your flag to eradicate all opposition to the Great American Dream of Bush Inc.

AS OBSERVED IN PREVIOUS WEEKS: The Faux-Centrists will finish digging their grave this year just in time to be dumped in by the political convulsions which will begin in 2006 and split both political parties into warring splinters. Meanwhile, as a result of the incompetence of the Imperial Faction and the moral vacuum of the Mass Broadcast Media, the balance of the current American fate STILL lies in the hands of those in the Mid-East. If their will is strong enough, the will of the Iraqi people to create peace among themselves, the Americans will be able to extricate themselves from what has always been a completely untenable condition. Let us hope the same is true with the Lebanese people. With such a deluded national leadership in control of the U.S. government and mass media organizations, our future is in THE HANDS OF STRANGERS IN THE MIDEAST. THEIR WILL FOR PEACE IS OUR ONLY SALVATION.

AS PREVIOUSLY REPORTED:

Seymour Hersch's article in the New Yorker outlines the Imperial Faction's current thinking for stirring the pot of the Mid-East into a vast cauldron of violence, war, and Imperial expeditions.

It seems to devolve to this. Shock and awe and G.I. Joe didn't work for saving Iraq? Too expensive to go into Iran? Skip the soldiers and forget about saving the country, we can just bomb them and cripple them into oblivion instead. We will manipulate the factions from remote locations the old fashioned way, just like we have been doing and practicing for the past several decades.

Why does the base concept sound terribly much like a carbon copy of Israel's strategy for dealing with its Palestinian "Indians"?

With this article, Seymour indelicately informs us that we have a terrible problem on our hands. The Empire is expanding as rapidly as it can this next four years and they are not kidding. By Summer the gloves will start coming off… Seymour and many believe.

I am not so sure. The bureaucracies of the Imperial Faction are becoming threadbare and their support base is becoming so thin they are losing any credibility they once had.

Many in Eurasia are now saying that the U.S. is as authoritarian as Iran and far more dangerously capricious. Even a goodly portion of the American public now sees the truth of these statements.

This is not an argument that Bush and his Empire can win. There is also no possibility of a successful invasion or a strategic win by the U.S. Iran is too big, too many, too well armed, too well supported by its population, and too totally determined not to kowtow to the CIA Masters who made them suffer the tyranny of the bogus Shah.

The Shah of Iran, the CIA's very own stooge for the American Oil Industry, was as nasty and violent a thug who ever ruled a colonial outpost. His demise had nothing to do with religion. He, we, have not been forgiven, nor should we.

It is true that the U.S. government is controlled by men with strong tendencies to lunacy. Thus there is a terrible danger of miscalculation by the Imperial Faction. The savory blood of Fascism runs hot in many veins on the Eastern Seaboard, there are many who crave to impose dominance and humiliation over more independently-minded people to "win" the world for their "gang's" sense of "freedom".

But their time is running out for an attack on Iran, the cosmic tide is leaving that boat high and dry in the bay, unable to sail. It will become more and more difficult to enflame mass consciousness towards war as the Sunspot Cycle troughs into its MIN.

The Iranians have shown a methodical, disciplined, progressive approach to reasoning their way out and around the boxes imposed by Western imperializing forces. They have found much success in establishing relationships with other nations. They are likely to continue in this mode and practice the art of "what is possible" to avoid violent conflagration. If they are careful and methodical enough, they will outflank the Imperial Faction and simply wait it out

FOR 2005 & BEYOND

More probable than not....another four years of political struggle, bitterness, the loss of more political and individual rights, continued declassing and economic deterioration, and a growing general civil upheaval which takes many forms…in the midst of a nation which is virtually ostracized from most of the remainder of the world…with the forces of Jihad reaching greater ascendancy in the Middle-East.

A new media now arrives, floating down the river Iway, and with it comes a new consciousness of the world and the lies which have driven so much of the past 50 years….

From this, the future will arise as the old world slowly collapses.

All else is fluid, in transition. Thank God Almighty!

THE STRATEGIC SITUATION – Final Synopsis
For predictions related to the mess in Palestine, the Middle East, and the Bush political era.

AS PREVIOUSLY REPORTED

For the first time in nearly a year we can see a changing of the strategic conditions of the age.

It rests on six realities:

1. In the dark background, Al Qaeda could to be a spent, dying force. It does NOT SEEM to have flourished well in hidden places. It has not delivered on its promises for over a year. Is it a spent force? Or is it preparing a new round? With the circumstances in Iraq distracting the Bull, perhaps it has tightly consolidated its resources and operatives towards another target. With the U.S. Bull full engaged and tripping all over itself in the international arena, there is little point in striking inside the U.S. The Americans have already sold their souls to Hitler II and can be counted upon to waste huge sums of money. What is the point of wasting more energy in that direction? Osama Bin Laden's true target was and remains the take over of Saudi Arabia. Is this his next phase? Likely this will not be fully understood and this is most likely Osama Bin Laden's most important tactical win of the last year. He is more inscrutable than ever. But he clearly lost as well. The insurgency failed and other forces will now assume power and move the U.S. out. His influence in Iraq will wane.