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Monitoring The Changes In The Earth edited by Michael Wells Mandeville copyright January Day 19 2005
BULLETIN ARCHIVE
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FEATURES SUMMARIES WATCHES Click here for how to access these in the complete weekly
update which is posted on the WEB. Energy ET DATA SOURCES HEADLINES Links Daily Events Important Articles Please Note: This Bulletin is conceived as a
System. It is still in an early stage of evolution. We intend to
progressively link into this synopsis system all of the major news feeds of
Planet Earth which articulate aspects of the profound historical Change In
The Earth which is underway. |
Earth Changes Bulletin Update As Of January 19
2005 You have heard of the Weather Report?
Here exclusively is this week’s "Earth Report" - a short
review of the "big picture" about how the dynamic changes in the
Sun and the Earth are effecting our lives more and more intensely, with the
latest prognostications and predictions for weathermen, farmers, investors,
businessmen, and every man. You may click here for the full text of the Earth Changes Bulletin Update for this week, or
use this URL http://www.michaelmandeville.com/earthmonitor/ecbulletins/2005/ecb_Jan_19_05.htm NEW LINK FOR THE NEW Earth Changes Bulletin Almanac & Updates Archive. USE THIS NEW HOME PAGE TO ACCESS
THE ARCHIVES OF WEEKLY UPDATES, SPECIAL REPORTS, AND THE NEW ALMANAC. CONTINUE EXCEPTIONAL VIGILENCE IN ACTIVE SEISMIC ZONES THROUGH
MARCH 2005 Nearly all psychic
and avocational quake predictors believe that additional major tectonic
activity is about to occur during the next few weeks. You definitely should consider this to be a
dangerous time period for major quake and tsunami activity. This danger
period is immediate and probably extends through to the end of March 2005. coming soon UPDATE PREDICTIONS FOR 2005 –
2012 I am still working
diligently on this material which succinctly outlines predictions for the
period 2005 – 2012 . This will serve as the
basis of two one day seminars during April, one in EACH WEDNESDAY - Alex Merklinger Radio at Mysteries Of The Mind 7 PM Mountain Time FOR THIS YEAR OF THE GATHERING EMERGENCE: On the geophysical front, As predicted, SOLAR activity has increased but far more energetically than could be foreseen.
Indeed, activity in all levels of the vast Solar Vortex, including the
tectonic movements of the Earth, increased in a rising tempo of
activity. Sunspot Count shot up rapidly to 109 on January 18 but fell to 66 on
January 19 while the Solar Flux fell to 124 and then rose to 133. This peak was no doubt a late response to
the clustering of the planets and the Earth | Saturn alignment. How much far
this will go and what the impact will be on the Earth’s weather is anyone’s
intuit. More probable than not the
Sunspot Count will rise again for the January 27 alignment of Mercury | Venus
and it should be even more powerful that the Earth | Saturn alignment. This
is likely to pulse two major storm fronts into the continents along with a
lot of cold polar air into the continental interiors driven far to the South
by a new phase of major distortions in the Jet Stream. Several 6 plus mag quakes struck widely in
the Western Pacific as volcanism flared higher in the Western Arc of the A
Cosmic Reminder To Americans Pride
Goeth Before The Fall As
it was with all Empires, so it is becoming, Immensely
Swollen In Conceits Over The Whole World Humpty
Dumpty Wobbleth Upon The Wall Poor
Humpty Dumpty, He Cannot Avoid Such A Very Big Fall And When He Falls His Very Great Fall, All
The King’s Men And All The King’s Horses Can’t
put Humpty Dumpty Back Together Again R.I.P 2006-2009 |
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hidden column on the right is available for links, banners, and icons
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subscriber).. |
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NOTES Grayed items are not yet operational |
Program Thesis: What are we trying to do with the Earth
Changes Bulletin? Most news media do not handle technical and
scientific subjects like geology and earth sciences very well. They
don't understand the causes and effects of activities in the Sun and
Earth. Accordingly, they often do not understand if, when, how, why to
report earthquakes, volcanic activity, global warming effects The
treatment often sounds absent-minded, poorly qualified, and frequently
contains various technical errors. Seldom is the treatment entertaining
and genuinely educational. Based on new scientific principles which have
emerged during the past thirty years, many of the dynamic activities of the
Sun and Earth can be linked together to see how a range of effects are linked
together. This makes it possible to paint "the big picture"
into a perspective which explains many diverse events and processes,
especially climate and weather patterns such as global warming and El Nino.
From the "big picture", long range predictions can be made for
weeks and even months ahead. The result is sophisticated cutting-edge
information which is objective, balanced, astute, relevant, and can be easily
seen and appreciated by lay audiences. The perspective is generally
global, seldom parochial. For the framework of concepts, terms, and current
conditions which are used or described in the these Bulletins, see the Earth
Changes 2003 Almanac Calendar. To see the internet resources which are used to
prepare this Update, take a look at the Earth
Monitor front page - http://www.michaelmandeville.com/earthmonitor/ The Bulletin is written in Arizona (UTC +8
hours) so any relative references, such as "Today", or "Tomorrow",
or "Yesterday" should generally to taken to refer to the day spans
as experienced in Western North America. |
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PREVIOUS UPDATES Nov 24
not available as of this date |
UPDATE PREDICTIONS FOR
2005 – 2012 and through "The Tribulations" A systematic synopsis
is being assembled which succinctly outlines predictions for the period 2005
– 2012 and through the period of what the Q’ero call the Pachacuti and the Hopi
call the "Great Purification" (also known as the "Time of
Troubles" or "The Tribulations". This outline will update the predictions in
"The Coming Economic Collapse of 2006" and the "Return of the
Phoenix", mainly by confirming the general plot line and by adding more
details which carry the predictions well beyond 2006-2008. COMING IN APRIL… Mandeville will be conducting a
book tour in SPONSORING: THE COMING ECONOMIC COLLAPSE OF 2006, which puts today, tomorrow, and the trends together into the Cayce 25 year economic cycle which will "bottom" in 2006/2007. Click here to download THIS BOOK STILL COOKS AND IT WILL COOK THE
POLITICIANS AND THE ECONOMY ALL THE WAY THROUGH TO 2008: This synthesis
is far ahead of the daily digests in all halls of the internet media: so far (since May 2003) the track
record on this set of predictions for 2003-2008 is running 100 per
cent. If you have not purchased this book, you will remain ignorant of
the main dynamics which are rapidly changing everything. LATEST UPDATE NOTE AS OF JANUARY 19, 2006: Ditto all conditions. LATEST UPDATE NOTE AS OF JANUARY 6, 2006:
On track, most economic conditions are deteriorating. It will be very hard to inflate the current
bubbles, most are likely to continue to shrink through the year. LATEST UPDATE NOTE AS OF JANUARY 6, 2006:
On track, as discussed in previous Bulletins. A new quick summary is provided below in
the Economy section. LATEST UPDATE NOTE AS OF DECEMBER 22,
2004: No surprises, everything on track as
predicted…conditions remain about the same through to the first week of
January – things will then begin to break suddenly…into a fast and furiously
changing year. The tide will clearly
turn during 2005 on many fronts, collectively marking the end of the American
Age and a progressive waning of American stature and prosperity.. LATEST UPDATE NOTE AS OF NOVEMBER 17,
2004: As per stated below, the bubble is re-inflating for
a few more weeks or even months if Al Qaeda does not attack. Oil prices are dropping as stocks and
equities firm up and the economy continues expansion with the expectation
that American Imperialism will continue (unfortunately)
to drive international events during 2005. BEWARE SUDDEN REVERSALS WHEN
ALQAEDA STRIKES. BEWARE THE EMERGING SUPER-COALITION IN |
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ALL
DATES AND TIMES USED IN THE EARTH CHANGES BULLETIN ARE NOW UTC = Universal
Time Constant, previously known as Greenwich Mean Time. |
HOUSEKEEPING MANDEVILLE IS ON THE RADIO EVERY WEDNESDAY WITH Alex Merklinger (Millennium Radio) show at 7
PM WE ARE IN
AN AWKWARD STAGE WITH THE BULLETINS We are halfway into
a process which will combine an almanac structure with the weekly
updates. I intend a three tier
Bulletin/Almanac Archive: a weekly
newsletter which is shorter than present, an archive of the Weekly Updates in
web pages, and a deeper core structure which is like an Almanac, encompassing
years, major references, explanations of all the details, and outlines for
many years in advance of various predictions and concerns. To this core we will link the Updates and
around the entire business we will add a variety of news feeds and tightly
focused discussion forums. From these
news feeds, some items in summary form will appear in the Updates. It will take a couple of months yet to
shape this up to where I will truly want it to be. Today you can
finally access an update of the past year's bulletins and the beginning of an
annual forecast for 2005. Click here
for the new access point to the current new home page for the Earth Changes Bulletin Almanac & Archive |
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As stated in the "Coming Economic
Collapse of 2006", the nature of human politics reflects the
communication abilities of the human species. As we transform the
media, as we have been on the Iway, we will transform human politics and the
entire Earth. Making the way for the New Earth is operationally
equivalent to making a new Media on the Iway. Not that that is all that there
is to it. Not by a long shot…but IT IS one of the essentials we need to
dissolve the blockages and dance around the tyrannies. |
SPIRITUAL WATCH How to converge and express the spirit of mass transformation
into manifestation, HOW to be, IS the question. How to do is the praxis of
the time. Examining this question, probing it, is the chief trendline
of this year. BREAKING
NEWS: The surge in solar activity the last few days has had a
major impact on a great number of people who meditate. Interior channels have energized and nearly
everyone I talk to relays similar experiences of new channels or access to new
awareness of imagery or feelings or knowledge opening up. A step-function in personal maturity has
been experienced, along with increased personal vibrancy. As it were, a real "personal
inauguration" seems at hand. It
is a good time to focus on the emerging Medicine Wheel of the Earth and our
energetic interconnection within Indra's Net.
It is an excellent time to enhance the power of inner visualization
and connection. Thanks to Adam for
bringing this back into our consciousness.
Try this visualization:. Indra's Net: (as
described in the ancient Sanskrit texts) There is an endless net of threads throughout the
universe. The horizontal threads are in space. The vertical threads are in time. At every crossing of threads there is an individual. And every individual is a crystal bead. The great light of absolute being illuminates and
penetrates every crystal being. And every crystal being reflects not only the light from
every other crystal in the net, But also every reflection of every reflection throughout
the universe. MWM: Try that on for visualizing the All In All we call
God. Talk about opening up channels…. FOR
WINTER 2005: Mayan Elders have delivered an urgent message: the major Earth Changes of the
"Pachacuti" or "Purification" period have begun with the
rupture of the Indo-Trench. They
expect increasing seismic activity and major quakes of a similar nature to
occur through the next several months. FOR 2005:
Some major keywords for 2005 are: "Gathering", most especially in the sense of
gathering of forces; "Being", as in the sense of fully participating
in the realization and practice of what we dare to hope we are becoming; "Accepting"; negatively as in eating the
"Karmic Blowback" (the American People are going to take an immense
amount of Karmic Blowback for the Tragedy in "Emerging", realization and experiencing of the becomings
long sought, most especially as in bringing forth the new understandings,
orientations, needs, and directions of purpose for a profoundly different
world than is celebrated in the Mass Media. In the positive dimension, around these keywords, many new
phenomenon will emerge, especially in the forms of groups and individuals
manifesting new activities. NEXT
SEVEN YEARS: In the negative dimension, the coming "Karmic
Blowback" is going to be terrible and shake the very roots of everything
in STAY FOCUSED ON HELPING THE EMERGENCE OF PEACE, JUSTICE,
AND FREEDOM. DENY ALL MOVEMENT TOWARDS
FASCISM. THE FASCISTS AND BIGOTS AMONG
THE NATIONS ARE GOING TO DELIVER INCREASING QUANTITIES OF KARMIC BLOWBACK TO
EACH OTHER. It will be terrible in the
coming years, and in 2005 the I SUGGEST YOU "DUCK" AND KEEP PUTTING YOURSELF
IN A DIFFERENT PLACE ALLTOGETHER – MENTALLY AND EMOTIONALLY AND POLITICALLY
AND ECONOMICALLY, AND IF YOU ARE URBAN DEPENDENT, I HIGHLY RECOMMEND THAT YOU
BEGIN TO FORM YOUR STRATEGY FOR PHYSICALLY DUCKING THE EMPIRE’S KARMIC
BLOWBACK FOR THE PERIOD 2006-2012, ESPECIALLY IF YOU LIVE IN THE EAST COAST
BUBBLE. No-Eyes, the blind old first world prophet of the Rockies
had it right 20 years ago, conditions are going to get increasing bad because
of the karmic blowback and there is no end in sight until "the Phoenix
screeches". BREATH
FREE. Let go of everything which is
disturbed, distorted, or weird. Let go of everything which is forced,
contrived, hidden, manipulative, and/or constrictive. Keep flowing with the
rising tide of spiritual energies which are filling many thirsty souls.
The old patterns are falling away. Transition continues. Embrace new
relationships which are trying to form in your life if they are honest and
straightforward and provide a new openness. Forget the fears of the unknown,
embrace all that which lifts your life into the light of a greater
understanding and relationship with the all. SPIRITS EMERGING:
CONFIRMING WHAT I PREDICTED LAST YEAR:
"In a short while, some will come forth giving witness to a great
energy which has come into their lives, literally, as if the hand of God was
upon them. This is becoming more and more apparent and these words will
have greater meaning by the end of the year." Here is one. ADAM,
an 18 year old healer in Don’t react, go to center, get clear,
release, and grieve…the Fourth Age is dying rapidly now… much more rapidly
than we thought, its institutions and identities are beyond saving… let it
go, let go, get to center…flow into God, let God flow into you…don’t
speculate, don’t analyze, don’t react to the shtuff…clear…clean out the past
four years…we are now free to grieve the death of everything we detested…let
it go…let it go…let it die. As you
re-center in God, find the realization that this is the final moment you have
been waiting for to end your connections and involvements with the illusions
and delusions of all that which has betrayed the divine within each and brought
greed, war, and destruction over the Earth. The destroyers belong to each other,
this is now the final time of their fatal embrace. Let them love their wars…they have greatly
desired the bitter wines of their hatreds and violence, they have lusted
greatly for their Armageddon, and they shall have it. The die has been cast with a thousand
artifices and illusions. With the
excellence of its manner of casting,
God has delivered to you your own freedom from the delusions and spells
of the Mass Sorcerers, indeed, from the entire age, if you will but realize
it. Clear yourself and your life to
find now the sense of movement and direction to separate your life from the
dying culture which is putrefying all around you. There is no saving it…as
Buckminster Fuller observed many decades ago, the old order is never saved,
the new order merely grows up around it to eventually takes its place. So it will come to pass now in an intense
period of vast change during the next twenty years. |
The "Great Purification" predicted
by the Hopi, Maya, Q’ero, and many others continues. How amazing that
these ancient oral traditions could tune into last year and this one to
advise us that this was a period of profound historical turning involving The Great Purification of the Earth? For additional discussion, see the commentary of May 19, 2004 and the commentary of June 16, 2004. THE NEW BASIS IS GESTATING…. THE time to link the spiritual communities
of the Earth. The Whole Earth. IT HAS BECOME URGENT TO LINK THE SPIRITUAL COMMUNITIES
WITHIN A BROAD MOVEMENT WHICH PROVIDES NEW CURRENTS OF SPIRITUAL LEADERSHIP. |
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FOR THE
MOST PART: Steady as she goes. A slow acceleration in the shifting of the
poles has been underway for perhaps the past 100 years and the last three decades
has shown an increase in the rate of acceleration. This has appeared to
accelerate even more during the past decade. |
POLAR MOTION What is happening to the
motion of the Earth. For the overall summary of the status
of polar motion CLICK HERE. To see the current
graphs of polar motion, CLICK HERE. Scroll down the page until you get to the black
and white graphs with show the x and y coordinates of the North Spin Axis on
two separate graphs. BREAKING
NEWS: The anomaly continues…doubtless the drift and the wobble of
the North Spin Access continues to demonstrate instability. On the X-plot, http://maia.usno.navy.mil/xplot2.gif the wobble track is widening again almost as fast as its
downward movement. Downward movement
should be much greater than horizontal movement. This continues to suggest a
divergent vector which pushes the motion of the crust at something like 90
degrees from its previous tracks. On the circular Wobble Tracker Software plot, the North
Spin Axis appears to be moving a little too aggressively towards the right,
towards Russia….or, in reality, the crust of the Earth appears to be moving
too aggressively over the North Spin Axis towards, let us say for example,
Chicago, or down Longitude West 90.. For an excellent timely discussion of mass instability in
the Earth during this current time, check out this very interesting article
by William Hutton which is linked below.
Long time subscribers to the EC Bulletins will recall that I began to
report in 2000 that a major anomaly had appeared beginning in December 1998
in the track of Chandler's Wobble (of the North Spin Axis). Hutton, a retired professional geologist,
has followed up this lead with this very interesting article which confirms
the anomaly within his framework of thought. This is especially pertinent because the current anomaly
is beginning to smell a lot like the 1998-1999 anomaly, which
"phase-shifted" the wobble to some degree. If the wobble once again
phase-shifts as it approaches its MIN spiral track in the 6.5 year cycle, it
will reveal a new recurring pattern in polar motion which has not been
apparent since the 1936 phase shift which Edgar Cayce described. For one thing, it will reveal that the
Earth will require an era of shape-shifting and accelerated wobble drift to
regain a balanced distribution of mass (more mass needs to be shoved by
centrifugal spin energy towards the equator). Reflect on the idea that a phase-shift represents a shift
in the time domain for a variable…suddenly it is in a new time connection
with the flux of the universe. Now
reflect for a moment that the primary description of the shifting of the
poles which was offered by the oral tradition of the Inca is the name "Pachacuti",
which they defined as a rip in the fabric of time… This is ALL VERY PERTINENT as well because it tends to
corroborate the "feeling" of the tripwires among psychics and
shamen and avant garde researchers that an acceleration is occurring in Earth
Changes right now and that many more major quakes are to be expected during
the coming months. As you will see in Hutton's discussion, the 1998 incident
was followed by some historical quakes. POSSIBLE
POLE-SHIFT PRECURSOR FOUND! Hutton
Commentaries On 1998 Polar Motion Anomaly RECENT The "jiggle" in the polar motion wobble produced
by the 9.2 Indo-Trench quake can be clearly seen on the spiral wobble track. It is as if two vectors at 90 degrees to each other are
contending with each other over which force will move the Earth’s crust the
most, and thus move the location of the North Spin Axis in one direction or
another. Since this anomaly is directly synchronous with the Great
Rupture of the Indo-Trench, I am deeply suspicious that the events are
directly related (the slightly erratic wobble causing the rupture, the
rebound of which shifts the wobble into an even more erratic motion). The specific causes are unknown (the general cause is
simple: an accumulating imbalance in
the distribution of the mass of the Earth on which centrifugal force acts to
push excess mass towards the Equator). The appearances of the graphs of polar motion suggest that
this is an "emerging" and accelerating instability which has been
increasing in tempo for at least the past 20 years. (Actually this is an
illusion, it is the crust of the Earth which is wobbling and moving as
centrifugal force attempts to push accumulating extra mass (such as polar ice
pack) towards the equator). This acceleration in the rate of motion suggests the there
is indeed a "Change In The Earth", as long prophesied, beginning to
happen right before our eyes and under our feet. As many no doubt have been reading, many prophetic
"tripwires" among psychics and First World Medicine Wheel elders
are clearly interpreting current Earth events as signals and signs and
effects of the "Pachacuti", "Great Purification", or
"Tribulation" which precedes the final avalanche of the crust
(shifting of the poles, Ragnarok, Judgment Day, etc.). ANATOMY OF
THE 2004 GREAT RUPTURE OF THE INDO-TRENCH The outline of the wobble track on the map grid of the
world seems to show more clearly every week that the spiraling motion of the
North Spin Axis has indeed, as I have suspected for weeks, accelerated its
rate of drift. More, it is showing
considerable instability in moving through its spiraling track. Polar motion returned to its spiral track and is currently
spiraling tightly inward. OOPS, that was a couple of weeks ago. Now it is very lazily actually drifting
away from its X Min track (when the wobble is the smallest approximately
every seven years). It is also having a bad hair month – err, year. Its motion seems more unstable during this
past three months and does not appear to be "forming up" in a track
appropriate to its last six months of motion.
It currently appears to be "spreading" out into a wider
spiral rather than it typical. Take a look at the x plot chart and you will see the
beginning of the new outward, horizontal motion on the wave track. What is it doing? It is always hard to generalize about
these motions but I believe we are currently seeing the "blowback"
or "feedback" energy of the rupturing of the Earth’s crust in the
Indo-Trench. I believe that the poles are now shifting (have been for
the past few years) their "average" location more rapidly than
during the previous century. This accelerated drift is probably due to some
mass imbalance in the Earth’s crust.
This imbalance is being acted upon by centrifugal motion of the
Earth’s spin, which is changing the focal point of the "wobble" in
the spin. Then, about 90 days ago, apparently the drift track of the
wobble hit a vector of mass resistance.
This resistance was strong enough to flatten the peak of its normal
sine-wave spiraling motion in what is called the X plot of polar motion. This plot is maintained by international cooperation
to keep tabs on the exact location of the North Spin Axis from day to day. Apparently, the normal smooth motion of the Earth’s crust
dipping over the theoretical average location of the North Spin Axis toward
the Pacific and then back again down was arrested and cut off. The entire Crust of the Earth was arrested
in its Then the normal motion seemed to begin to assert itself
and the spiral began to turn inward, as it should be doing at this time,
closing toward the X Min point where the wobble will be at its smallest size
of its seven year cycle. I believe this abnormal track of the wobble is one of the
primary causes of the Great Rupture in the Indo-Trench. The connection and time parallelism between
these two relatively abnormal events is just too close to ignore as mere
coincidence. And…the parallelism gets better. Suddenly the motion of
the North Spin Axis began to flare out again this past few days, apparently
shifting the focal point for the entire wobble of the North Spin Axis. I do not have enough of the numbers of actual polar motion
(agreed upon and formally reported) to be mathematically precise about
this. The IERS generally cogitates on
what it will advance as the real numbers to make sure it corresponds will all
reports. It will be another month or so until enough real numbers are available
on table form to clearly see what may have been the feedback or blowback
effect. However, the IERS X plot is
not nearly so shy and currently shows exactly what I am talking about. The current, apparent out-flaring
"jiggle" in the X plot has probably been created by the
"ringing" or oscillation of the Earth created by the Christmas
Rupture of the Indo-Trench. FOR 2005: In general, the Wobble Track is showing
continued tightening of the Chandler’s Wobble Spiral, as should be at this
time in its 7 year Wobble Cycle, and the track seems to be conforming with a
continued acceleration in the rate of drift, but this can be by no means
certain until this 7 year cycle is over.
In about two years we will be able to locate the minimum spiral of
motion and then look for the average 7 year "location" of this past
seven years for comparison with previous cycles. NEXT
SEVEN YEARS: KEEP IN
MIND THAT THIS
WATCH HAS BEEN SET TO LOOK EXACTLY FOR THIS TYPE OF DEPARTURE OF THE EARTH
FROM ITS PREVIOUS SPIRALING WOBBLE TRACKS.
THESE MOTIONS DURING THE PAST 90 DAYS CONFIRMS THE THESIS OF VORTEX
TECTONICS AND THE DEDUCTION FOR THE PROJECTED AVALANCHE OF THE CRUST WHICH
WAS CALCULATED IN THE "RETURN
OF THE PHOENIX". (The spiral track takes nearly seven years to define a
complete wobble cycle and it takes the entire cycle to be able to calculate
the average location of the North Spin Axis in order to compare it against
other "average locations" in the previous axis cycles. From this, a straight line track of the
"average locations" can be computed and the acceleration in the
rate of motion of the "shift" can be defined I believe at the current time that this will show a specific
"jump" this past year, a micro "pole shift". Very
micro.) REFERENCE:
http://maia.usno.navy.mil/xplot2.gif http://maia.usno.navy.mil/yplot2.gif |
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MAGNETIC POLES – SHIFTING What is happening to the
magnetic fields of the Earth. No real change during the past
year: a magnetic pole shift is not something to be very concerned about
within this decade at least. Currently, there is little of note. Despite many
claims, there are no apparent trends which will hold up to historical
analysis of many different regions of the Earth. |
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Asteroids As of June 04, NASA’S ESTIMATE: "Potentially Hazardous Asteroids (PHAs) are space
rocks larger than approximately 100m that can come closer to Earth than 0.05
AU. None of the known PHAs (asteroids) are
on a collision course with our planet, although
astronomers are finding new ones all the time." |
PLANETS & ALIGNMENTS Daily Planet – click here for sheer artistic pleasure Every day John Walker’s (Home Planet Software) computer creates a new image of hypothetical habitable planet, just one every day for the estimated 2 billion potential habitable planets in our Galaxy, which the Egyptians more or less named Nun, a mother Goddess from which all life flows. Euro people nursery tales converted the name into the Milky Way. http://www.fourmilab.ch/terranova/terranovag.html
Moon Perigee/Apogee/Phase Data - click here to be always up to date Earth/Moon Viewer by John Walker
The Home Planet software computes in real time the exact relative positions of the planets. Go here to view today’s image of the solar system as seen from a heliocentric view (the sun in the center, you looking at the entire solar system as if it were a big pancake. You can set any date and time. You should generally ask the form to give you the "equal orbits" view so you can see all the planets. http://www.fourmilab.ch/cgi-bin/uncgi/Solar FOR AN
ALMANAC SYTLE SUMMARY FORECAST OF 2005 ALIGNMENTS, AND a
general discussion of how all this works and why this is worth doing, click
here for Almanac
2005. (in progress and soon will be
available only through registered subscriptions). TODAY’S MOON We are in Lunation #1015 and we are now 9 days past the New Moon of January 10 at 1:29 UTC. As of January
Day 19, the Moon this day is now in its North
Node (orbiting North of the Equator). It
is now approximately 398,000 KM from the Earth. It is 74% of the Full Moon
(visibility or phase) now waxing into the Full Moon of January 25. LUNAR PERIGEE/APOGEE/PHASE TABLE FOR 2005 Event
Day UTC Distance Days +/- Phase
SEISMIC
SYZYGY WINDOWS QUALIFER:
As we have seen at least three times this past year, most dramatically
with the recent outbreak (Oct 23-26 2004) of large Earthquakes on the West
side of Honsho Island (Japan), the Syzygy Window and Perigee principles DO
NOT WORK CONSISTENTLY TO FORECAST AN INCREASE IN MAGNITUDE NOR FREQUENCY OF
EARTHQUAKES. Using strictly an
intuitive view of the past 12 months, the rate of accuracy is definitely
larger than random but probably not larger than about 70% for any given area. FOR THE YEAR 2005 The strongest syzygies (based on the combination of the
Lunar Phase with Perigee) during the first half of the year should tend to be
around the New Moon. The New Moon and
Perigee combination is the strongest this January (occurring at virtually the
same time on January 10) and the combination gradually gets weaker during the
year and is at its lowest during the Summer. It works just the opposite this year for the Full
Moon. The Full Moon is currently the
weakest syzygy (based on its distance from the Earth) during January and it
will gradually become stronger, achieving its greatest pull on the Earth in
June and July. (Cancer natives will
have a maximum power Lunar whammy this year).
Then it gradually gets weaker during the remainder of the year while
the New Moon is slowly gaining again in strength. HOWEVER, VERY IMPORTANT QUALIFICATION: This characterization of strong and weak
syzygies does not necessarily mean you can predict the strength or frequency
of earthquake activity by this means…the Earth is inconsistent and full of
surprises to keep us all busy.
Outbreaks of seismic activity can and do break out at any time. Large
quakes tend to be in the syzygies, but they are not always… FOR THIS WEEK The last syzygy for the New Moon of January 10 was not
strong compared to other Syzygies during the past year, but tectonic activity
in the form of large quakes and volcanic eruptions is now trending upward
even before the next syzygy begins and despite the fact that the Moon is
moving away from the Earth at the moment. Is this a
correlate of the current anomaly in the crust which has been under way for
the past several months? Was the
rupture of the Indo-Trench just ONE of the major tectonic events which may
occur during 2005? Could
be. We will enter the next Full Moon syzygy about January 23
and it will last through to about January 27.
Jim Berkland, the originator of using syzygy to define the
most active periods of seismic activity has a more complex method for
computing dates and you may want to use his methods for greater
precision. For details see the Syzygy website
Seismic/Tsunami
Heads Up All Zones Pacific Rim of Fire & Indonesia before Christmas 2004. Unlike the week long aftershocks which continued to
strike the Indo- Trench, the Macquarie Sound quake was not accompanied by
aftershocks. This new quake may indicate another round of motion in the
Australian tectonic plate is beginning and thus this may be a signal that
additional rupturing will occur along the Northern and Western edges of the
Australian plate and/or directly once again along the Indo-Trench. However, during the past 24 hours, seismic activity
has fallen off dramatically in entire world's seismic activity was exclusively
focused along the Indo-Trench, quake activity has fallen there and
appears at the moment to be building up in the Accordingly, at this moment, the tectonic signals
are mixed. As well, cosmic signals are mixed, but cosmic forces
will shortly consolidate gravitational influences to exert
nearly maximum torque effects on the Earth. The Great Indo-Trench rupture occurred during a
Full Moon Syzygy as the Earth was approaching very close to its annual
orbital Perihelion (closest approach to the Sun). At the moment the Moon is
between syzygies (alignment of the Earth-Moon-Sun in a straight line) during
which quake activity usually abates to a considerable extent. However, the
Earth is still approaching its orbital Perihelion, which will be about
January 6. At Earth's Perihelion, the Sun will have its
maximum gravitational effect on the Earth, pulling most strongly on the
Southern Hemisphere, tending to pull the Australian plate UP towards the
equator where it is colliding with areas such as the Indo-Trench. This influence will be greatly magnified by the New
Moon Syzygy during January 7 through to January 14. The New
Moon on January 10 will be very close to halfway between Apogee and Perigee
(its closest approach to the Earth) in a straight line with the Sun. This
will create a very strong gravitational pulling force on the crust of the
Earth during the current annual cycle. This pulling of the Moon and the Sun
will combine a pull of the South to the North against the Equator with an
East to West pull of all continents against their adjacent oceanic floors. Since the Carib Plate is nearly on the Equator and
will be squeezed especially strongly during this coming syzygy, along with
the entire Northern Arc of the Australian Tectonic Plate, ranging from the
Solomon Islands through to the Nicobar Islands, major rupturing could also
occur in Central America down through Peru. At somewhat lesser risk may be the Northern Arc of
the Pacific Rim of Fire but the current build up of seismic activity in the
region may be signaling much more activity to come during the next two weeks.
The most destructive quake activity during the last 15 years in Adding to this mix of strong forces and potential
major tectonic motions is a complex set of planetary alignments
which appear to cluster most strongly around January 13. One of
these alignments is a straight line between the Sun, Earth, and Saturn.
Though the gravitational impact of this is not significant (theoretically) on
Earth, the electromagnetic impact of these alignments is often very strong on
both the Sun (in the form of major sunspots, CME's, flares, and solar wind
disturbances) and the Earth's weather (which is strongly modified by any
increase in solar activity). Accordingly, some increase in solar activity is to
be expected during the next several days. These increases will likely drive
another round of major storm fronts to hit major continents. These may in
turn increase the probability of increased tectonic activity. Some
geophysicists have been speculating in recent years that these solar storms
and major weather fronts on Earth have an indirect impact on stimulating an
increase in tectonic activity through an increase in drag forces against the
Earth's crust and by making the normal slight wobbling motion of the Earth
more irregular than normal. These fluctuations may cause shifts in the stress
in earthquake faults, pushing some of them "over the edge". Adding to this mixture are a large number of
warnings from most people who watch the Earth's tectonic activity avocationally
or who tune into it psychically. Most "tripwires" seem to believe
that additional major "events" are on the way
during the next 30 days. Accordingly,
given the constellation of material forces and various human impressions, all
peoples who live in the Pacific Rim of Fire and along the Australian Plate,
especially those on the coasts, should at all times maintain a heightened
sense of vigilance MOST
ESPECIALLY DURING THE NEXT 30 DAYS. Right now is the time to work through your
evacuation plan. It is a useful drill for anytime and it may be needed in
somewhere during the next 90 days. If you fall into the target areas outlined
above, DO IT NOW. (Perigee = the Moon’s closest approach to the
Earth during its monthly orbit which increases gravitational influence of the
Moon by as much as 15%; Apogee = the Moon’s greatest distance from the Earth
during its monthly orbit). (Berkland has a more complex formula
for syzygy and his dates are often different.) For details see the Syzygy website. THE NEXT PLANETARY ALIGNMENTS For any "Home Planet Software" charts
of the planets which are shown here or through URLS which are provided on
this page, you can decipher which planet is which by counting the orbital rings
if you do not know the signs which denote the planets. Mercury is 1 closest
to the Sun, Venus is 2, Earth is 3, Mars is 4, Jupiter is 5, Saturn is 6,
Uranus is 7, IMPORTANT
NOTE ABOUT PLANETARY/SOLAR INFLUENCES:
Solar
Cycle 23 is rapidly approaching its minima period when solar activity and
sunspot counts will be minimal most of the time. But even so, major sunspot peaks, big
flares, coronal holes, and powerful CME’s will still occur once in a while,
as the graphs of previous sunspot cycles definitely show. These flare-ups will be a lot less
predictable than during the past four years, which makes the large flare-ups
even more intrusive. LIST OF
ALIGNMENTS THROUGH TO JUNE 30, 2005 Today's Solar
System: Click Here For Heliocentric
Chart of Solar System as of January 19, 2005 From January through to June 2005, four particular periods stand out for their
potential to induce major reactions in the solar atmosphere and pull out huge
ionic storms, high sunspot counts, and major effects on the Earth’s weather. SO
FAR…fortunately, the odds of major solar eruptions are beginning to decline
dramatically. The alignments of
December and early January have not produced any significant increase in
sunspot counts or solar storms. (knock on
wood, this current alignment could cause sunspot counts to climb for another
three days) The Aphelion At or near the Earth’s Perihelion (closest approach to the
Sun) Mercury will once again align progressively with the inner planets
during a 30 day period. January 13, 2005 Mercury & Mars close couple to The Spring Grand Alignment Jupiter | Earth | Mercury | Sun | Venus Beginning by about March 7, at least major peaks in the
sunspot count should produce three major waves of early Spring storm fronts.
The largest peak should form up about the Spring Equinox and the
largest storm front should blow in about the time of the Grand Alignment March 14, 2005 Mercury | Saturn Summer Ping Pong June
7, 2005 Venus
| Saturn with Mercury moving up in close alignment, followed on June 10 ,
2005 with Mercury forming a triplet with Venus and Saturn as Earth couples
with Pluto and |
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PLANET WATCHING For background and the current information on
observable planets. NASA
INVITES YOU TO VIEW SATURN: "On Thursday, January 13th, Saturn will be 750
million miles from Earth--the closest we get to the ringed planet all year
long. Step outside around 7:30 p.m. and look east. Golden Saturn is easy to
find next to Castor and Pollux in the constellation Gemini." NASA'S
DATA ON NEAR EARTH ASTEROIDS: "Potentially Hazardous Asteroids (PHAs)
are space rocks larger than approximately 100m that can come closer to Earth
than 0.05 AU. None of the known PHAs are on a collision course with our
planet, although astronomers are finding new ones all the time." On 22
Dec 2004 there were 662 known Potentially Hazardous Asteroids (three more than last
month). For January 2005, NASA has listed three Earth-asteroid encounters
ranging from 14 to 15 LD’s away (see below).
Notes: LD is a "Lunar
Distance." 1 LD = 384,401 km, the distance between Earth and the Moon.
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SUNSPOTS The events in the solar atmosphere which impact weather and climate patterns, the magnetic field and auroras, including forecasts for the week, month, and year ahead. CLICK HERE for background information. To follow the numbers below, click here to view the Solar Cycle 23 Chart. Or, get the data in a NOAA Table. AS OF JANUARY 19: The Sunspot Count
bobbed up and down during the last seven days but mostly it rose up to 109 on
January 18 and then dropped to 66 on January 19. On the 18th the Solar Flux was
124 and falling but rose again on the 19th to 133, auguring yet
another spike to come in the Sunspot Count .
Mostly likely the sunspot count will follow the Flux during the next
48 hours. EVEN MORE WORRISOME IS THE SUDDEN SURGE
IN THE MAGNETIC FIELD in the atmosphere.
This field is usually measured by an index which hovers between 5 and
the low teens. As of January 18 it had
spiked overnight in response to the tremendous outpouring of X flare energy
from the Sun (several X class flares and dozens of M or C class flares). The Magnetic Field Index was at
approximately 72 as of last night. All weather fronts
will tend towards extremes. AS PREVIOUSLY PREDICTED AND OBSERVED: Solar Cycle 23 is dying quickly
but IT CAN AND WILL OCCASSIONALLY PRODUCE SUDDEN STORMY MOMENTS WITH BRIEF
MOMENTS OF HIGH SUNSPOT COUNTS, CME’S FLARES, ETC. "NOW" is the kind of moment when
these spritzy solar moods will come. Date Flux
Sunspots Area 2005 01 02 100
52 250 2005 01 03 94
43 160 2005 01 04 88
30 40 2005 01 05 88
15 30 2005 01 06 83
14 30 2005 01 07 84
22 80 2005 01 08 89
34 170 2005 01 09 88
28 190 2005 01 10 90
40 180 2005 01 11 94
25 120 2005 01 12 102
58 600 2005 01 18 124
109 1650 2005 01 19 133
66 1400 MONTHLY AVERAGES IN SOLAR CYCLE 23 Over
all, the sunspot average count (ISSN) for February 2004 was 46.0. By November
2004, the count was still abnormally high at 43.7, making the decline of
Solar Cycle 23 slow indeed. But
December clearly brought the end of the high sunspot counts. The average
dipped down to a low of 17.9, surprising everyone. The predicted average value for January is
27, so if we notice an increase during the next few weeks, it will just be
the law of averages asserting itself. AS
PREVIOUSLY OBSERVED: Once again we are
reminded that the Sun and its cycles are really not very "average"
and not very "cyclical" or "regular". Nowhere can we find any evidence of an
exact regularity, only constant variations.
The Sun is and probably always has been a vast cauldron of chaotic
storms, electro-magnetic upwellings, and enormous explosions and sudden
flares (or CME’s) which can extend out as far as even the outer planets,
producing somewhat chaotic impacts on the planets. All
this makes exact predictions of solar activity far beyond the pale of human
science, even with first class models of the electromagnetic gradients
created by the planets and their orbital relationships. From this it is easy to infer with
considerable experience and conviction, that nothing on Earth can be
foreseen, EXACTLY. Just as some order
is inevitable, so is some chaos built directly into the cosmos. But
even so the average count should drop during the next 12 months to a monthly
low in the range of 10. More and more,
now and for the next half dozen years, the Sun will influence Earth’s
atmosphere and weather less and less.
Global Warming and El Nino type of phenomena will be more and more
influential compared to the solar input.
The geo-data we gather during the next three years about weather,
climate, the Arctic, Antarctic, Drought Regions, etc. will be extremely
valuable in telling us what the true long-term geo-trends really are. |
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SOLAR ACTIVITY As reported by NASA/NOAA unless otherwise
stated. (Sudden surprises and huge storms are always possible even
during sunspot minima periods such as the one we are currently headed
into). Descriptions and numbers are based on numbers as given by Iway
sources at about 1:00 – 3:00 PM The Solar Wind was robust at: 700.2 km/s this hour while
pushing a very modest density of 0.5
protons/cm3". Solar
activity is VERY HIGH. THE OUTLOOK FOR
THE NEXT TWO DAYS IS FOR A LOT OF
ACTIVITY, no doubt related to the Earth | Saturn Alignment. Fluxgate
Magnetometer: The Fluxgate Chart at the
University of Alaska (which measures magnetic disturbances in the Earth’s
atmosphere created by solar winds and ion storms) is showing SEVERAL EXTREME DISTURBANCES
DURING THE PAST 36 HOURS (as of this time, about 2 PM Mountain time US). To see the magnetic
disturbances "peg" the fluxgate monitor for the past 48
hours, click here To see the Fluxgate moment to moment, CLICK HERE. NASA Spectacular Aurora Pix for January 18. Don't miss
it. NASA REPORTS: " Giant sunspot 720 unleashed another X-class solar
flare this morning. The explosion propelled a coronal mass ejection into
space--but not toward Earth." AS REPORTED LAST WEEK:
NASA has produced a great image of the BIG SUNSPOT 720 which grew for
the Earth | Saturn alignment on January 13. This is a potent sunspot region,
it has already spawned the large increase in the sunspot count today. Don’t
miss viewing it. This image provides a
basic classic illustration of what happens when planets "pull"
together on the electromagnetic atmosphere of the Sun. http://www.spaceweather.com/images2005/12jan05/720_big.gif NASA PREDICTS: " A solar wind gust from [a] coronal hole might hit
Earth's magnetic field on Jan. 23rd."
There is a 30-90% probability of geomagnetic storms, 25%-70%
probability on coronal holes, CME’s, and M and/or X Class Flares. This is
one of Alvestad's most expansive reports about major solar activity. Jan
Alvestad reports: "The geomagnetic field was active to severe storm on
January 18. Solar wind speed ranged between 443 and 993 km/sec (values are
unreliable due to proton storm). The extremely fast halo CME observed after
the X3.8 event on January 17 reached Earth near 0600 UT on January 18, a
transit time of approximately 21 hours. There was no shock wave, or at least
no observable shock as most of the normally available data could not be used
due to sensor contamination by the strong proton storm. The arrival of the
CME can be deduced from whatever Region 10723 was quiet and stable. New region 10724
emerged on January 16 and was reported by SEC two days later. The region did
not change much on January 18. Comment
added at 08:50 UTC on January 19: Region 10720 has become increasingly active
over the last several hours and produced a major M6 event at 07:30 and then a
major X1.3 flare at 08:22 UTC. A potentially Earth directed CME may have been
associated with these events. It is not yet know if this was a proton flare.
Another update will likely be added when additional data becomes available. Comment added at 11:17 UTC: Region 10720
produced an M2.8 flare at 10:24 UTC. Only a minor enhancement in proton
fluxes were observed after the X1 flare earlier today. Moderate type II and
IV radio sweeps were recorded and the associated CME could reach Earth late
on January 20 and prolong the current disturbance. So far today the
geomagnetic field has been at major storm levels...January 18: No obvious
fully or partly Earth directed CMEs were observed." Jan
Alvestad predicts: "A fairly large recurrent coronal hole (CH140) in the
northern hemisphere will rotate to a geoeffective position on January
18-20...The geomagnetic field is expected to be unsettled to major storm on
January 19 due to CME effects and quiet to active on January 20. A high speed
stream from coronal hole CH140 will likely reach Earth late on January 21 and
cause unsettled to minor storm conditions until January 23. " Alvestad
also predicts for the next 24 hours a 60-100% probability of coronal holes, a
0-20% probability of CME’s, and a
60-100% probability of M and/or X Class Flares. |
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WORLD WEATHER SUMMARY Those who have been watching the weather
patterns track the Sunspot Peaks have
seen that the correlations between sunspot peaks and major storm fronts
coming in off the oceans to track across the continents is roughly pretty
good, sometimes very much exactly on the mark. Accordingly, our
"sloppycasts" (approximate continental weather patterns) this past
few years have proven out to be fairly worthwhile. With the decline in sunspot activity,
weather is now more governed by Earth’s geophysics and will be mostly through
to about 2010. For geophysical-based reports and predictions – start with
Yahoo Weather, or the Weather Channel. Am I resigning from weather
forecasts? Almost. This section will
only add commentary on possible weather disturbances when major sunspot peaks
form up. These should be more rare
than during the past four years. FOR AN
ALMANAC SYTLE SUMMARY FORECAST OF 2005 ALIGNMENTS, SUNSPOT PEAKS, WEATHER
IMPACTS, AND HUMAN MOOD SHIFTS (through to Summer at this point) AND a
general discussion of how all this works and why this is worth doing, click
here for Almanac
2005. (in progress and soon will be
available only through registered subscriptions). AS PREVIOUSLY PREDICTED:
I think the weather patterns pretty much prove up the case of Global
Warming and reveal what the essential syndrome is going to be: a major shift
in the eco systems of the extreme North and the desert zone latitudes with
short intense Winters and Summers and long drawn out often stormy Springs and
Falls. The Pacific Southwest is clearly going to get a I am not sure what this says about Global Warming, but it
says a lot about the Pacific Southwest.
I have been wondering about how the Pacific Southwest could show so
many extreme erosion patterns with such little rainfall this past five
years. I have just seen more erosion
and shifts of earth in the "dry washes" in the past month than I
have seen in the past four years. EARTH WEATHER PREDICTION FOR THE NEXT
SEVEN DAYS (Northern Hemisphere) This
"sloppycast" is based on sunspot counts, planetary alignments, and
visual data shown on satellite and radar. SOLAR ACTIVITY HAS INCREASED RADICALLY AND THIS WILL
CONTINUE FOR A COUPLE MORE DAYS AT LEAST.
THIS IS INDUCING INTENSE IONIC STORMFRONTS, THE STRONGEST IN SEVERAL
MONTHS. THE ATMOSPHERE AND THE JET
STREAM WILL GO INTO CHAOS AGAIN UNABLE TO PATTERN OUT FOR A COUPLE OF WEEKS. So, the next several days begin to drive into chaotic
weather extremes. This will be followed by another even stronger period of
weather chaos and huge storm fronts which will form up in response to the
Mercury | Venus alignment on January 27.
The First week in February should be especially hard hit in many
areas. EARTH WEATHER PREDICTION FOR WINTER
SEASON (Northern Hemisphere) This
"sloppycast" is based on sunspot counts, planetary alignments, and
visual data shown on satellite and radar. THE WARM
WATER PATCH IN THE NORTH PACIFIC ( BUT, the
intense electromagnetic storms in the solar and earth atmospheres will
DISTORT THE JET STREAM THIS NEXT FEW DAYS and AGAIN IN LATE JANUARY. THIS WE NEED TO
AMEND THE FORECAST OF LAST WEEK: Most locations have probably received the worst of the
winter and the worst of the snowfalls and floods. As predicted, I believe this is going to be
an early, intense, but short winter – an evolving new syndrome which reflects
Global Warming Dynamics. AMENDMENT: We
probably will have another two pulses of wintry weather as a result of
the exceptional activity of the sun now and during the last few days of
January. After this, say
about mid February, Winter should retreat quickly. FOR
SPRING: During the end of
March we will have another major round of extreme weather, due to the five
planet straight line alignment. After
a mild ending to Winter, the first week of Spring will rapidly turn into a
very stormy period of about two weeks of extremely wet weather. No doubt the high mountains will have
another late round of snow and the
skiing season may be extended in many areas. KEEP
WATCHING FOR THIS GLOBAL WARMING WEATHER PATTERN:
Global Warming could easily intensify the seasons, making a short
bitterly cold Winter, longer intermediate stormy Spring and Fall seasons, and
shorter but very hot and dry summers. Don’t we already see this pattern at
work in the Northern Hemisphere? SOUTHWEST CONDITIONS This "sloppycast" is based on six
years of living in the USA Pacific Southwest, the sunspot counts, planetary
alignments, and visual data shown on satellite and radar. The weather is moderating quite nicely. Grass is growing
everywhere…and flowers bloom on the Sonoran.
I suspect the worst of Winter is over for the Pacific Southwest and
that the Sonoran will have a long Spring with some occasional light rain
getting rarer and rarer until the Summer Monsoon begins. I am not sure at this point what is in
store for the Summer Monsoon. AS PREVIOUSLY OBSERVED:
The past 60 days has clearly broken the drought pattern of the past
four years. You can see it in the
plants and the atmosphere everywhere.
It "feels" wet here now even on a sunny day, which it rarely
has during the past six years (that I have been here). Some climatologists are arguing that this
is an anomalous wet year for the Pacific Southwest and that the drought will
reassert itself next year or the year after.
I am inclined to think that the drought in the Southwest is a product
of both the Sunspot Cycle 23 and the Global Warming syndrome. From this, I suppose that the drought
pattern may be somewhat reduced during the next four years during the Sunspot
Minima, submerged completely by a lot of rain during El Nino, if it appears,
but slowly the drought will reappear during the next climb of sunspot counts
during Solar Sunspot Cycle 24. |
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EL NINO & LA NINA WATCH http://www.cdc.noaa.gov/map/clim/sst_olr/sst_animated.gif The
dynamic El Nino charts have not been updated by NOAA since January 2, 2005.
Accordingly, no new news is possible. AS OF JANUARY 2, 2005
El Nino MAY OR MAY NOT OCCUR.
No prediction one way or the other is truly possible at the current
moment but if anyone will lay me odds at Vegas, at the moment I will bet on
one. If El Nino
does begin to firm up, it will have little impact on the Winter of 2005, but
it may begin to impact the Spring and hit heavy and hard during the Summer
and Fall months and perhaps deliver a VERY wet and warm Winter for 2006. Or
not…only time will tell. Probably by
April we will know for certain. AS
REPORTED PREVIOUSLY – THE CLASSIC EL NINO – We do not at this point know
whether an El Nino is in the offing for 2005.
Purely in accordance with the
X Wave correlation which I discovered in the Vortex Tectonics Model, AN
EL NINO IS MORE PROBABLE THAN NOT IN 2005.
But, the El Nino is not like an astrophysical cycle. There are some "missing" El
Nino’s in the record of the 20th century and we may have a missing
one. HOWEVER, WE CAN’T BE CERTAIN
UNTIL ABOUT APRIL OF 2005, which is about the latest month in which the
syndrome has formed up during previous El Nino’s. ADDITIONAL NOTE: The year 2004 and/or 2005, in accordance
with the 100 year X Wave Graph of the motion of the spin axis in Chandler’s
Wobble, COULD BE EL NINO YEARS. Graphs of various El Nino periods
seem to show that the beginning of temperature build-up can occur as late as
April of an El Nino year. So 2005 may not be callable until early
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KEEP WATCHING THE ARCTIC, ANTARCTIC, and
the desert zones. These areas are the most objective front line observatories
of the climate shift. |
GLOBAL WARMING It is becoming obvious that we have a long term
real shift in the average temperatures and climate regions related to the
latitudes. This climate shift is creating a growing environmental
disaster in the polar zones and in the desert-prone latitudes such as in the
Pacific Southwest. For the latest short review, see Earth
Changes Bulletin Update As Of May 26, 2004 and the Earth
Changes Bulletin Update As Of August 18, 2004 It would appear that the primary
messengers of Global Warming are appearing among the Inuit. It is their stories which are beginning to
press the phenomenon into every consciousness through all media. This is a good thing. It will help humanity become conscious of
dealing with the whole Earth and humanity will learn much more about how we
are all interconnected. Once again
stewardship in BEING on Earth is being led by the 'Our land is changing - soon yours will too' · Sheila Watt-Cloutier is the
elected chair of the Inuit Circumpolar Conference, which represents the
155,000 Inuit who live in Our elders and hunters have intimate knowledge of the
land and sea ice, and have observed disturbing changes to the Arctic climate
and environment, and to the wildlife. These changes include melting permafrost causing
increased erosion and damaging infrastructure; longer sea-ice free seasons;
new species of birds and fish invading the region; the arrival of mosquitoes
and blackflies; unpredictable sea-ice conditions; and glaciers melting fast,
creating torrents instead of streams. My homeland, the By looking at what is already happening in remote Inuit
villages in Scientists tell us that polar bears, ice living seals,
walrus, and some birds are very likely to decline, and that warming will
disrupt or destroy our hunting and food sharing culture. Our ancient connection to our hunting culture may well
disappear, within my grandson's lifetime. My culture continues to see us through much tumultuous
change. This change has resulted in confusion and despair, and all too often
in early death for our young people from suicides and addiction. Climate change is a matter of the survival of humanity as
whole. It is the most pressing global issue we face today. Protect the http://www.guardian.co.uk/international/story/0,3604,1391021,00.html AS PREVIOUSLY OBSERVED:
It is now clear that a "wet winter" is well under way for
almost all of North America and At the moment it would be hard to think that the area is
in a drought period, but it is very clear that the area, like much of the
planet, is experiencing some pretty weird unseasonable climate patterns. Where all this is going only the wind can tell... AS PREVIOUSLY REPORTED ABOUT THE LIKELY IMPACT OF GLOBAL
WARMING ON HURRICANES– For others comments on Global Warming, Earth
Changes Bulletin Update As Of August 25, 2004 For backgrounder information about Global Warming and how
to look for it and correlate it to the real causes (solar influx and
tectonic heat rifts in the bottoms of the oceans), see Earth
Changes Bulletin Update As Of July 14, 2004 |
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IONIZING SOLAR ACTIVITY & MASS BEHAVIOR The assessment as of last week, repeated below, is well
and good in very general terms for this rapid descent into Sunspot Cycle 23
MIN. But in the meantime, human
emotionality will tend to predominate during the next two weeks. Violence, I fear, will be driven by a
ferocious intensity partly driven by major ionic flux from the Sun this week
and again around January 27. For a general discussion and forecast for the Spring
Season, go to: Almanac
2005 IN GENERAL
2005-2009 DURING LULLS OF THE SOLAR VORTEX: AS OBSERVED AS OF DECEMBER 30: As the sunspot counts decline and fail to
peak for the planetary alignments, the impact on humans and the biosphere is
declining progressively. Relatively more
human activity will tend to be more driven by mental activity and spiritual
connectivity than emotional impulses. This does not favor the Imperial Faction and the Sorcerers
in the Mass Broadcast Smokescreen Industry.
The strength of the emotional associations which they rely upon to
program mass behavior will have less and less power during the next four
years. This is going to be especially true with the four year jag
of emotional associations around "patriotism". During 2005, patriotism and martial ardor
will become increasingly
"old" among the young and the marginal. More and more soldiers will wake up and
realize they have been on a "bender" which left them in a literal
hellhole. As solar
activity ebbs into low activity levels, have you noticed that the polls are
increasingly showing that people think the Tragic Invasion of People
collectively are losing the ardor of blind emotional commitments which the
sorcerers in the Mass Broadcast Media and the agents of HillBilly Sunday
whipped up. They are waking up to a
wicked hangover in bed with a very ugly mess. This shift
is palpable and will grow in magnitude and depth. The Imperial Faction will stall out rapidly
during 2005, it is increasingly unlikely that they will have their way in the
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EARTHQUAKES Around the world to see the current and
potential patterns of seismic activity, with coverage of the windows of
danger. Unless otherwise specified, all quake activity which is
discussed is based on the USGS database charts and tables which list quake
activity in excess of 2.0 mag. and above. Unfortunately there are many
lags in reporting of information about quakes, thus neither the numbers of
quakes nor the actual quakes discussed may be complete and accurate.
Real time analysis of quake patterns is merely AN APPROXIMATION BASED ON
INCOMPLETE INFORMATION. FOR MORE QUAKE INFO RELATED TO SYZYGY WINDOWS,
Jim Berkland calculates syzygy windows with considerably more sophistication
than I do. See
Syzygy.com The largest number of quakes struck on January 13, three
days after the New Moon Perigee (within Berkland's definition of a syzygy)
and more or less just after the center of the Earth | Saturn alignment. Those who think planets affect the Earth's
tectonics may remark upon this but they should keep in mind that while the
synchronicities are clear so also are the very complex, close and powerful
solar and lunar influences. The other days saw relatively few quakes, but there were
four more quakes above 6.0. They moved in a clear pattern, up from one in the
Fiji Islands several days ago to one to the West in Papua New Guinea (both
along the Northern edge of Australian Tectonic Plate) and then nearly
straight North up in the Mariana Islands where two 6 plus quakes, one 6.7,
struck in Yap, even as a major volcanic eruption in the Marianas was spewing
ash and gases over other islands. Then the two quakes struck in Many more quakes struck the Nicobar Islands near SEISMIC ACTIVITY ON THE CARIB PLATE WAS DOWN FROM THE
PRIOR WEEK, AND SO WAS VOLCANISM ON THE CARIB . BUT I AM STILL VERY CONCERNED THAT THE EARTH IS
"COCKING THE TRIGGER" THIS YEAR FOR MAJOR TECTONIC ACTIVITY WHICH
WILL BREAK OUT IN COSA NOSTRA DAMUS WATCH FOR SUPER ALERT FOR THIS WATCH!!! As witnessed by the Indo-Trench
Rupture and the aberrant motions of the Earth’s crust, global tectonic
motions in the Earth are unstable and obviously are tending to exceptionally
explosive releases in the trenches of tectonic collision and in the spreading
Great Rift zones. The Western ledge of the Carib
Plate is 180 degrees from the 9.2 quake in the Indo-Trench. Accordingly, the Carib Plate may also
release its "shape-shifting" stress during one of the upcoming
Lunar syzygies this year. This release
could come in the form of major volcanism and major Earthquakes which breaks
out first in AS PREVIOUSLY
OBSERVED: according to the Cosa Nostra Damus Prophecy, a
major destructive quake could now strike at any time in SLOW EARTH MOVEMENT WATCH No reports to add this week SHAPE-SHIFTERS WATCH The quake activity in the Great Rift is one of
the most important harbingers for the Earth Changes Watch to monitor. As the
Earth’s crust adjusts its shape in response to gravitational and spin energy
vectors, quakes in the Great Rift increase and tectonic activity all around
the world increases. (Unless otherwise specified, all quake activity which is
discussed is based on the USGS LOCAL AREA database charts and tables which
list quake activity in excess of 3.0 mag. and above. Generally most of the
quakes which appear in these counts are 4.5 plus in magnitude.) For
additional information on Plate Tectonics and charts of the Great Rift of the
Earth, go to Plate
Tectonics Map Two modest shape-shifter quakes struck in the Great Rift
during the past seven days, in the
Rekjanes zones of the Northern Mid Atlantic Rise. Unless otherwise specified, all quake activity
which is discussed is based on the USGS LOCAL AREA database charts and tables
which list quake activity in excess of 1.0 mag. and above. Generally most of
the quakes which appear in these counts are in the range of 1 to 2 in
magnitude.
Any numbers
used in this section may or may not be accurate and may or may not reflect
what will eventually appear in scientific databases. IMPORTANT NOTE: Most
volcano monitoring sites appear to be screening out microquakes. A study
needs to be done to establish how to reconcile various lists and databases
because of this practice. The numbers
below cannot be considered to be definitive totals and subtotals. We use them merely to observe relative
fluctuations from week to week. Seismic activity in US & ALASKA & down from 530 the prior week BIG ISLAND up from 7 during the prior week - these do not include the
microquakes under down from 319 last week, widely scattered in down from 28 last week – widely scattered PNW --- 118 up from 99 last week; scattered but still dominated 80% by
NE Cal - East of down from 0 last week; these are almost certainly volcanic
related, quakes have broken out here off and on during the past two years. First clearing cough's? One on Rainer's throat One on Hood's throat down from 27 last week. Unless otherwise specified, all quake activity which is discussed is based on the USGS LOCAL AREA database charts and tables which list quake activity in excess of 1.0 mag. and above. Generally most of the quakes which appear in these counts are in the range of 1 to 2 in magnitude. For Yellowstone Quake Chart, CLICK HERE. up from 3 last week WEEK’S MOST SIGNIFICANT QUAKES The progression of quakes from |
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VOLCANOES Around the world with the most interesting and
relevant volcano stories; briefs on the likely eruptions as well as coverage
of on-going activity. For information on current eruptions, see the Southwest Volcano Centre. Or
see "Breaking
Volcano Eruption News". OBSERVABLE
WORLD VOLCANIC ACTIVITY HAS DEFINITELY CONTINUED TO INCREASE THIS PAST SEVEN
DAYS. Numbers are up. Many of the intermittent
"smokers" flared AGAIN in new ash plumes and lava flows, led as
nearly always by renewed ash plumes in Etna and the lava flows of We obviously have passed the null point for volcanic
activity, which usually occurs during the last 60 days of the year. As predicted here last year, activity has
already begun to pick up and more probable than not will continue building up
on through June of 2005, when once again it will begin to taper off. Saint Helens is still building a dome along with several
look-alike dome-builders on the WHAT TO EXPECT FROM THIS:
Anything on the Carib Plate (East, West, North, or South) is in danger
of major tectonic activity during the next 90 days, especially around the
Perigeen New Moons. To this list I
would add the Northern Arc of the Pacific Rim of Fire, especially on SAINT
HELENS VOLCANO UPDATES Text in this section is a condensation of
direct quotes from online source: CURRENT
UPDATE supplied by the U.S. Geological Survey, Vancouver, Washington;
University of Washington, Pacific Northwest Seismograph Network, Seattle,
Washington; U.S. Geological Survey, Vancouver, Washington; University of
Washington, Pacific Northwest Seismograph Network, Seattle, Washington Wednesday,
January 19, 2005 8:30 a.m. PST (1630 UTC) MOUNT
Current
status is Volcano Advisory (Alert Level 2); aviation color code Growth
of the new lava dome inside the crater of Potential
ash hazards:Wind
forecasts from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA),
coupled with eruption models, show that ash clouds that rise above the crater
rim today would drift chiefly northeastward. Recent
observations: The
volcano is visible on the VolcanoCam this morning and displaying a minor
steam plume. Parts of the crater and old dome appear gray and ash covered. We
don’t know if it is new ash, perhaps from the ash and steam emission (?) of
early Sunday morning, or old ash that has been exposed by extensive snowmelt
caused by the recent warm rains. We hope to make a quick aerial
reconnaissance today if the weather allows and get close views of the crater
and new lava dome. For
additional information, background, images, and other graphics:
http://vulcan.wr.usgs.gov/News/framework.html USGS
Cascades Volcano Observatory, the Pacific Northwest Seismograph Network at
the For
additional information, background, images, and other graphics:
http://vulcan.wr.usgs.gov/News/framework.html For
seismic information: http://www.pnsn.org/HELENS/welcome.html For a
definition of alert levels: http://vulcan.wr.usgs.gov/News/framework.html Telephone
recordings with the latest update on OTHER CASCADE VOLCANOES
as of January Day 19 2004 All
other volcanoes in the LATEST FORECAST FOR
SAINT HELENS BY EC BULLETIN: Look for the next
increase in eruptive behavior in St. Helens to occur in tandem with an
increase in activity on AS
OBSERVED LAST WEEK: At least three of
the active volcanoes on AS REPORTED PREVIOUSLY: Colima may be the closest "model"
for how Here are the SWVC volcanic activity numbers as of January
Day 19 2004: (SWVC does it annual database cleaning and new predictions for
the year at this time, accordingly its numbers in early January
"break" sequence with the last numbers in December). 7 on restless list (could go on active list at any moment)
(same as last week) 27 on alert list – up from 25 last week (alert list are
volcanoes with pre-cursor activities suggesting that activity may begin) 20 on active list (seismic,
gas, steam, lava, ash, or explosive activity) (up from 19 a week ago) Popo gave a 10 puff day yesterday. Centrapred reports for January Day 19 (17:00 GMT) that " In the last 24 hours, the system
of monitored of Popocatépetl volcano registered 10 exhalations of low
intensity accompanied by steam of water and gas. At the moment of this report
it is observed the volcano with water steam emission and gas…subsidence is
observed in the inner crater; an external lava dome at the bottom of the
crater cannot be distinguished. " HIGHLY
INTERESTING NEW PLATE TECTONICS RESOURCE: Digital
World Tectonic Activity Map (DTAM) - visualization tool that
presents an actual representational view of global tectonics; created using
current global datasets of seismicity, volcanism, and plate motions. MOST ACTIVE VOLCANOES THIS WEEK from Volcano Breaking News by
Volcanologist John Seach Volcano Travel:
john@volcanolive.com Dates in red are posted in Eastern Australian
Time (UT + 10 hr) Mt St Helens
Volcano (USA) Anatahan
Volcano (Mariana Islands) |
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Standing Assessment: Likely, it is
fair to conclude that the not-so-invisible Black Arts Nation, from HAARP to
the Navy, to the Bush/Ashcroft prisons in Iraq/Afghanistan and Cuba, not to
mention many other technologies, areas, and programs, are far out of ethical,
moral, constitutional, and treaty control, as has been widely feared. |
We are just on the front edge of
"the outing"…. OR ARE WE? SADLY, NO CHANGE THIS WEEK. It looks like we are being taken
collectively to the cleaners. So far the scandals are being kept in the
closets of But very little is manifesting in actual
dynamics of change. So far, the
Democratic response to Gonzales’ nomination for A.G. is hopelessly
gutless. Only today’s challenge in
Congress to the legality of the But this challenge is being conducted so
tepidly, or least is being reported so tepidly, it is real obvious that the
fix is in and that the National Democratic Party is almost an entirely lost
cause. Funny, but real Democrats in a small,
remote, conservative state don’t feel and talk like National Democrats at
all. As an elected Precinct
Committeeman, I attended a meeting of the I opined at the beginning with the
thought that Kerry may not have actually lost the election. This opinion met with genuine affirmative
verbal response by several people in the room and from the reaction of the 50
people who were there, I believe I could have carried a resolution to demand
a complete new election in AS I WALK AROUND AS A REAL PERSON IT IS
TOTALLY OBVIOUS TO ME THAT THERE IS A HUGE, FUNDAMENTAL DISCONNECT BETWEEN THE EAST COAST BUBBLE, AS CENTERED
IN BUT AS OBSERVED LAST YEAR.
The auguries are not clear to me this past two weeks on how any of
this is going, or even if any of this IS going anywhere during the next
several months. If none of this goes
anywhere, take it as a given, take it as a fact, that all is lost on the
Republic and we have passed into in the deep twilight zone of a Fascist
nightmare for which there may not be any electoral remedy…at least not while
we are mired within the deep sorcery which the Mass Broadcast Media now casts in greater
depth all around us. It is as if after
the elections they turned up the volume of manipulation by at least a half turn
of the knob. Despite impeccable scientific reasoning, high caliber
informed observers and investigators, the story of the stolen elections
simply will not be told in ONCE AGAIN, Michael Moore’s has it about right. He is
asking the Senate to act to restore Better yet, tell you Senators and Congressmen to undertake
an investigation into the weirdness of |
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ECONOMY WATCH NO CHANGE THIS WEEK OF JANUARY
19 ALL SIGNALS MIXED, THE ECONOMY IS "WOBBLING"
WITH VERY LITTLE "GOOD NEWS" OR HOPES. As throughout most of 2004,
there are still no signs of a general recovery of the classic 20th
century kind. MOST COMMENTARY AND
EXPECTATIONS ARE PESSIMISTIC FOR 2005.
The most optimistic projections appear to be in the nature of
"holding" firm with small improvements. The worst expectations are dire indeed. I predict that most of the expectations will turn sour
after May or June. I also predict that
they will become more and more morose as the economy begins to show a rapid
movement into recession during the later part of the year and then clearly
moves into depression in 2006. STAGFLATION IS BUILDING MOMENTUM FOR A
CONSIDERABLE RISE DURING 2005. COMMODITY
PRICES WILL CLIMB RAPIDLY DURING 2005 TO CATCH UP WITH THE HUGE INCREASE IN
ENERGY COSTS (UP SOME 30% THIS YEAR).
This will generate a pernicious inflation in The economy will never regain any sense
of confidence in government efforts to build the basis for more solid
growth. The Bush administration will
continue to lose credibility, will come under severe legal pressure from wide
ranging indictments, perhaps even impeachment proceedings (long overdue), and
this gathering loss of political confidence will destroy corporate
confidence. This loss of confidence may be
experienced first in Europe and AS OBSERVED IN DECEMBER:
With the re-election of George Bush a completely new scenario for the
next two years is needed. It is this:
the main driving force of the economy will transition fully into an
Imperial economy. It will be based on
major militarization of the A massive empire building drive to export
"Order" over the greater portion of the world’s petroleum reserves
will shore up the value of the petro dollar quite nicely and preserve its
hegemony well through the "peak oil" period. Huge expenditures on armaments should
provide a continuing stimulus of the North American economy, enough to at
least keep it gimping along while the Empire is consolidated. The eventual eclipse of well oil poses no long term
problem. Only naïve analysts are
worried. Once oil supply is seriously
declining and oil prices can be maintained above $80/barrel, some people in
the oil industry, including David Rockefeller, understand the means of
"growing" your own. They
have held the secrets of this for some 23 years. THE ONLY BUMP ON THE ROAD TO THE IMPERIAL ECONOMY is
"global warming". This is
bringing people into other solutions than the use of oil. Is this not a course of development the
cabals of great wealth in BACKGROUNDERS
FOR JANUARY ON THE STATE OF THE Associated Press Retailers Report Unimpressive Dec. Sales Thursday January 6, 4:18 pm ET By Anne D'Innocenzio, AP Business Writer Nation's Retailers Report Generally
Unimpressive Sales Figures for It was hard to discern a trend Thursday as
merchants reported December sales, the final assessment of the holiday
season. Costco Wholesale Corp., Target Corp., teen retailer Abercrombie &
Fitch Co., Federated Department Stores Inc., and upscale stores like Neiman
Marcus Group Inc. all surpassed Wall Street projections but Sears, Roebuck and
Co., Gap Inc., Pier 1 Imports Inc. and May Department Stores Co. were among
the disappointments. Wal-Mart Stores Inc., which stepped up
discounting after a slow start to the season, posted a decent but not
outstanding 3 percent rise in same-store sales, or sales at stores open at
least a year. That was a slightly higher than Wall Street's forecast. "The Christmas season was just OK, clearly
salvaged by the last-minute shoppers and steep discounting," said Ken
Perkins, an analyst at RetailMetrics LLC, a research firm in Perkins noted that two-thirds of the 65
retailers that reported sales Thursday beat Wall Street's modest sales
estimates, a reversal of November's results. But the heavy discounting needed to bring
consumers into stores came at the expense of profits, prompting retailers
including Target and Pier 1 to cut fourth-quarter earnings projections,
according to Todd S. Slater, a retail analyst at Lazard Freres & Co. The International Council of Shopping
Centers-UBS same-store sales tally of 77 retailers for December rose 2.7
percent, which was below the already reduced forecast of 3 percent to 3.5
percent. That means same-store sales for the combined
November-December period were up 2.3 percent, below the 2.5 percent to 3
percent forecast, according to Michael P. Niemira, chief economist at the
association. November's final same-store sales tally was up a slim 1.8
percent. The holiday performance was weaker than the 4.0
percent gain posted in 2003, and in line with the holiday 2000 and 2001
seasons, which averaged a 2.3 percent gain. Still, as Niemira noted, the holiday season
"had a lot of things going on," making it difficult to measure its
success. The season was marked by the increasing popularity of gift cards,
sales of which are not recorded until consumers redeem them, and the
increasing popularity of online shopping, which is are not included in
retailers' same-store results. Online sales for the November and December
period rose a better-than-expected 29 percent to $15.8 billion, according to
comScore Networks Inc. The season had an uneven start at Thanksgiving,
prompting many merchants to step up discounts, but consumers didn't start
shopping seriously until the week before Christmas. The surprise this season
came the week after Christmas, when many stores saw a bigger-than-expected
bump from the redemption of gift cards. At apparel retailer Ann Taylor Stores Corp.,
sales "were better than we had anticipated given November's weak
performance, with most of the improvement coming in week five" of the
season, chairman J. Patrick Spainhour said in a statement. American Eagle Outfitters Inc., which reported
a better-than-expected 32.8 percent same-store sales increase on Wednesday,
said same-store sales soared 90 percent in the week after Christmas compared
to a year earlier. Although procrastination has become the norm
during the holidays, consumers' uneasiness contributed to their late shopping
-- they were looking for marked-down merchandise. While gasoline prices have
fallen, they are still high, and consumers, particularly low- and
middle-income Americans, have cut spending on non-essentials. Many consumers
are also worried about job security. The Labor Department underscored the uneven
nature of the labor market Thursday, reporting that the number of new people
signing up for jobless benefits shot up last week. New applications filed for
unemployment insurance increased by a seasonally adjusted 43,000 to 364,000,
the highest level since late September. The unimpressive holiday performance raised
questions about consumers' ability to spend in 2005, as factors like an
uncertain job market and high fuel prices are not going away. Rising interest
rates will also add to consumers' expenses. "Consumer spending moving forward has a
weak tone," said Anthony Chan, senior economist with J.P. Morgan Fleming
Asset Management in Wal-Mart had to work hard to generate
December's 3 percent same-store sales gain, which was at the high end of the
company's projections, and higher than the 2.3 percent forecast by Wall
Street analysts in a survey by Thomson First Call. Target had a 5.1 percent gain in same-store
sales, better than the 4.2 percent estimate. Costco had a 9 percent increase in same-store
sales, better than the TJX Cos. Inc. reported a 6 percent same-store
sales gain, above the 2.8 percent forecast. "In general, Christmas
business surged late in December, as we had expected," Edmond J.
English, president and chief executive officer, said in a statement. Among department stores, upscale merchants did
the best. Neiman Marcus enjoyed a 10.8 percent increase in same-store sales,
better than the 7.9 percent forecast. But Sears suffered a 3.0 percent same-store
sales decline in its domestic business, while Wall Street's forecast 0.2
percent. "Relatively strong sales at the end of the holiday shopping
season were insufficient to offset a slow start to the month," said Alan
J. Lacy, chairman and CEO, in a statement. Penney had a 1.2 percent decline in same-store
sales, better than the Federated had a 2.3 percent increase in
same-store sales, better than the 1.1 percent forecast. May had a 3.3 percent same-store sales decline,
close to the 3.5 percent estimate. Among apparel chains, Limited Brands Inc. had a
modest 2 percent same-store sales gain, better than the 1.4 percent forecast.
Gap had a 1 percent same-store sales decline, worse than Wall Street's 0.1
percent projection. Pier 1 suffered an 8.8 percent decline in
same-store sales. Analysts had expected a 4.3 percent decline. Teen retailers generally did well. Pacific
Sunwear of California Inc. had a 5.3 percent same-store sales increase; Wall
Street expected 4.0 percent. Abercrombie & Fitch had a 10 percent gain
in same-store sales, much higher than the 0.7 percent estimate. On Wednesday, Nordstrom Inc. reported a
same-store sales gain of 9.3 percent, better than the 3.6 percent forecast. Jobless Claims Climb, Retail Sales Mixed Thu Jan 6, 2:00 PM ET By JEANNINE The Labor Department (news - web sites)
reported Thursday that new applications filed for unemployment insurance
jumped by a seasonally adjusted 43,000 to 364,000, the highest level since
late September. The over-the-week increase of 43,000 was the most since the
end of March 2002. The latest snapshot of the labor market
activity surprised economists. They were forecasting claims to rise last week
to around 331,000. However, in a more positive note, the number of
claims that had been filed in the prior week turned out to have fallen by
10,000, according to revised figures. That drop was twice as big as initially
reported. "Even though we are in an expansion phase,
the jobless claims statistics continue to come in very choppy," said
Richard Yamarone, economist at Argus Research. The more stable, four-week moving average of
claims, which smooths out week-to-week fluctuations, rose last week by a
smaller 750 to 333,000. Labor Department analysts cautioned that
jobless claims figures around the holidays can swing widely from week to
week. In these cases, the four-week moving average is sometimes a better
barometer of labor market activity, they said. On Wall Street, investors took the latest
figures on jobless claims in stride. The Dow Jones industrials were up 42
points in morning trading. In other economic news, consumers — the
lifeblood of the economy — spent decently during the holiday shopping season. Last-minute shoppers gave retailers overall a
respectable 2004 holiday season, with a variety of stores from discounters to
apparel sellers reporting better than expected sales, according to reports
from the nation's retailers. Costco Wholesale Corp., Target Corp. and
upscale merchants like Neiman Marcus Group Inc. all surpassed Wall Street
projections. But disappointments included Pier 1 Imports Inc. and jeweler
Zale Corp. On the labor market front, strengthening job
creation has been an important task for President Bush (news - web sites).
The still-recovering job market has been seized upon by Democrats who contend
the president's economic policies have failed to induce a steady hiring spree
by businesses. Employers added 112,000 jobs in November, down
from 303,000 in October. Economists, however, are hoping for a pickup in
December's payrolls and are forecasting the addition of around 175,000 jobs
during the month. The jobless rate is expected to hold steady at 5.4 percent.
The employment report for December will be released by the government on
Friday. Looking ahead, the Bush administration predicts
the economy will create an additional 2.1 million jobs in 2005 — a figure
private economists called respectable. Still, that's a much lower estimate
than a previous forecast that 3.6 million jobs would be created next year. The Federal Reserve (news - web sites),
encouraged by the economy's performance, boosted short-term interest rates for
a fifth time this year on Dec. 14. Fed policy-makers at that meeting said
"labor market conditions continue to improve gradually." The number of people continuing to collect
jobless benefits, meanwhile, rose by 61,000 to 2.84 million for the week
ending Dec. 25, the most recent period for which that information is
available. However, compared to last year, there's been improvement. A year
ago, the figure stood at 3.30 million. Separately, the percentage of credit card
payments 30 or more days past due dipped to 4.26 percent in the third
quarter, from 4.28 percent in the second quarter, the American Bankers
Association reported Thursday. However, the delinquency rate on a composite of
other types of consumer loans, including auto loans and home equity loans,
rose to 1.90 percent in the third quarter, the highest in a year. "Consumer pocketbooks still felt the pinch
of elevated gas prices, draining resources that would otherwise have been
available to meet financial obligations," said James Chessen, the association's
chief economist. GENERAL PREDICTION DJI
AVERAGES The bubble is sinking. The DJI finished January Day 19 at 10539.97 down about $80 from
10,617.78 a week ago. Sinking, sinking… THE MARKET
will fall for a while in January until the market absorbs the psychological
shock of the somewhat depressed Christmas Season. DON’T
EXPECT ANYTHING HIGHER THIS YEAR.
AS
OBSERVED DURING 2004: WATCH THIS VERY CAREFULLY –
WAR IN THE MIDDLE EAST IS THE PRIMARY FACTOR DRIVING OIL UP IN PRICE AND
ACCELERATING THE DECLINE IN THE DOLLAR.
The dollar of course is a major factor. As the dollar drops AND the stock values
remain constant, MAIN
OVER-RIDING STRATEGIC VARIABLE: The main weakness in the international economy is that THE
BUSH ADMINISTRATION IS SO INCOMPETENT THAT NO INTERNATIONAL ACTOR KNOWS HOW
TO BE RATIONAL AND MAKE REAL DECISIONS.
EVERYTHING IS HEDGED AND HIDDEN.
All news on the war fronts is terrible. BUT, WORLD
CONFIDENCE MAY IMPROVE FOR A WHILE if a Shiite coalition can take power in
Iraq through the elections and motivate Bush to substantially withdraw
American troops. EURO WATCH
- DOLLAR VALUE FIRM AGAINST EURO BUT NOT THE
YEN, IT WILL WEAKEN WITH RENEWED OIL PRICE INCREASES The dollar closed today at 0.7686 per euro, up nearly a cent and a half from
last week which was at 0.7545 per euro.
Despite this gain which was supported by a number of
factors, pressures against the American Imperial Faction are still mounting
and will slowly erode the dollar during 2005. Interesting article on current dynamics of currency
markets http://biz.yahoo.com/rb/050119/markets_forex_8.html Did you know that corporations have a special
"deal" this year which allows them repatriate billions of dollars
in foreign profits by paying a surcharge of only $.05 per dollar in lieu of
the regular 35% tax rate. "As oil goes up, the dollar will tend also
to go down against the Euro." The price went down while the dollar went up slightly this
past week, which proves the correlation. PREDICTION CONFIRMED SO FAR: Don’t expect much drop for the remainder of
the year. The dollar may actually gain
a bit for a brief time, but not much and not for long. Thus in general, expect a steady if slow creep of prices
upward all through 2005, with faster relative increases for some basic
commodities and imports to reflect rapidly rising international costs, which
will still accelerate in response to the rise in energy costs this past six
months. MUST READ: "The Dollar
Panics" in "The Coming Economic Collapse of 2006",
which lays out the dynamics of what is happening LATEST OVERVIEW ON OIL: As of January 6, 2005 Today January 19: Oil slipped slightly in price, but this is
most likely only a small temperary dip. The high price points at the pump established last Fall look
permanent. It does not look like
retail prices will ever again be South of where they currently are. We are going to have a pretty vigorous
STAGFLATION for 2005 and average wholesale prices are likely to continue an
upward drift, somewhere in the range of 10% to 30%, with transitory peaks in
the range of last year’s $55. Perhaps
even higher, if the oil industry is disrupted by Al Qaeda or other terrorist
groups. HIGH PRICE PRESSURES CAN NO LONGER BE RESISTED BECAUSE ALL
OF THE WORLD POLITICAL STRUGGLES ARE NOW POLARIZING AROUND THE STRUGGLE FOR
OIL. Oil has become in the minds of
all those seeking power as THE ONLY SOURCE OF POWER in the world today. Associated Press Oil Prices Shoot Above $45 Per
Barrel Thursday January 6, 5:01 pm ET By Brad Foss, AP Business Writer Oil Prices Shoot Up 5 Percent,
Close Above $45 Per Barrel After an Early Spurt of Buying Oil prices shot up 5 percent
Thursday and closed above $45 a barrel after an early spurt of buying created
momentum that forced investors anticipating lower prices to cover their bets. Analysts said there was no single
spark that got the rally going. Instead, they suggested that the move higher
merely signals the persistent skittishness in the market, stemming from
strong demand, tight supplies and fears about instability in "Not a lot has changed from
when we were $10 a barrel higher than where we are now," said Tom Bentz,
a broker at BNP Paribas Commodity Futures in "And heating oil inventories
are still on the low side," he added. "At some point, the weather
is going to get colder." Light sweet crude for February
delivery soared $2.17 to settle at $45.56 a barrel on the New York Mercantile
Exchange. February heating oil futures surged 6.29 cents to $1.2813 per
gallon, while February gasoline ended 5.19 cents higher at $1.2229 a gallon. In "We have a great deal of
investment funds that are trading crude oil right now, a lot of end users
that are hedging in the market and producers in the Far East that are trading
in crude," said James Cordier, president of Liberty Trading Group in St.
Petersburg, Fla. "We get to where we're going a lot faster than we used
to." Cordier said there was considerable
resistance for Nymex crude at the $44 a barrel level, but that once that was
surpassed, prices moved higher very fast. On Wednesday, oil prices fell after
a The U.S. Energy Department's
statistical arm reported Wednesday that supplies of distillate fuel, which
include heating oil and diesel, grew by 2 million barrels last week to 121.1
million barrels. The increase was much higher than expected, though it still
leaves inventories 11 percent below year ago levels, according to the Energy
Information Administration. High-sulfur distillates used for
heating oil increased by 1.2 million barrels to 50.1 million barrels, about 9
percent below year ago levels. While oil prices are well below the
late October high above $55 a barrel, traders remain wary about tight heating
oil supplies in the Markets were rattled throughout
2004 by stronger-than-expected demand and persistent supply fears and unrest
in key producers Associated Press Writer Christopher
Bodeen in |
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SURVIVAL WATCH For latest info, see the Earth Changes Bulletin
Update as of July
7, 2004 Any aspect of the construction and home
products industry is hot. |
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SIGN OF THE TIMES: Ken Lay, who is now widely described as the biggest corporate swindler of all time, is still scott free. (ONE OF THE WORST ECONOMIC TERRORISTS OF ALL TIME). But now finally after waiting for two or so years, Lay has been indicted. Notice the timing, near the end of the first term of the Bush Administration. At this time I will hazard the guess that he will be pardoned by Bush during the final days of his administration, probably December of this year. ANOTHER NEARLY EQUAL SIGN OF THE TIMES: The lawyers who have been settling the Enron collapse for all parties, are billing the remaining net assets of Enron for approximately $1 billion for their services. This is a new heavenly-ordained definition for the term Chutzpah. I CALL IT CLASS ECONOMIC TERRORISM. |
POLITICAL WATCH For general overview on the Tragedy in All of the activity of 2004 gave
us the "lowest possible outcome" of
all choices. We are stooping along
smartly onto the pages of history: More probable than not....another
four years of political struggle, bitterness, the loss of more political and
individual rights, continued declassing and economic deterioration, and a
growing general civil upheaval which takes many forms…in the midst of a
nation which is virtually ostracized from most of the remainder of the
world…with the forces of Jihad reaching greater ascendancy in the
Middle-East. |
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