PHOENIX FIVE EARTH CHANGES BULLETIN

Please Note: This Bulletin is conceived as a System. It is still in an early stage of evolution. We intend to progressively link into this synopsis system all of the major news feeds of Planet Earth which articulate aspects of the profound historical Change In The Earth which is underway.

Earth Changes Bulletin Update As Of January 12 2005

You have heard of the Weather Report? Here exclusively is this week’s "Earth Report" - a short review of the “big picture” about how the dynamic changes in the Sun and the Earth are effecting our lives more and more intensely, with the latest prognostications and predictions for weathermen, farmers, investors, businessmen, and every man.

You may click here for the full text of the Earth Changes Bulletin Update for this week, or use this URL

http://www.michaelmandeville.com/earthmonitor/ecbulletins/2005/ecb_Jan_12_05.htm

CONTINUE EXCEPTIONAL VIGILENCE IN ACTIVE SEISMIC ZONES THROUGH MARCH 2005

Nearly all psychic and avocational quake predictors believe that additional major tectonic activity is about to occur during the next few weeks. As well, from January 7 through 17, the New Moon Syzygy will combine forces with the Solar Perihelion. You definitely should consider this to be a dangerous time period for major quake and tsunami activity. This danger period is immediate and probably extends through to the end of March 2005.

COMING SOON - UPDATE PREDICTIONS

FOR 2005 – 2012 and through “The Tribulations”

EACH WEDNESDAY - Alex Merklinger Radio at Mysteries Of The Mind

7 PM Mountain Time

FRIDAY, January 14, 2004 – Lou Gentile Radio at

http://lougentile.com/

I am still working diligently on a systematic update which succinctly outlines predictions for the period 2005 – 2012 and through the period of what the Q’ero call the Pachacuti and the Hopi call the “Great Purification” (also known as the “Time of Troubles” or “The Tribulations”). I have just consumed four books and many iway articles and websites the past few weeks to prepare for this. For a variety of reasons, the final keys for putting together the final plot line of the Fourth Age and the most probable key signals are now being brought forward into my consciousness in a way which will allow me to describe them clearly and specifically to the world. Due to many issues, the greater bulk of this material shall not be openly available directly on the internet. Access to most of the predictions will be made available through paid annual subscriptions. Because of the strategic seriousness of some of the predictions, some I will only make available through mouth and ear in private seminars. I will begin to advise of this material through the EC Bulletins, through Alex Merklinger’s radio program, and through other radio appearances, such as the Lou Gentile Show.

FOR THIS YEAR OF THE GATHERING EMERGENCE:

On the geophysical front, SOLAR activity has slowly abated this past two weeks but today’s Sunspot Count was rising rapidly to 58 while the Solar Flux was pushing past 109, definitely a response to the clustering of the planets and the Earth | Saturn alignment. How far this will go and what the impact will be on the Earth’s weather is anyone’s intuit. So expect anything for the remainder of January and go with what seems clear to you. EL NINO SEEMS TO BE FORMING UP MORE STRONGLY and MAY become a factor in late Spring 2005 through the early Winter of 2006 BUT THIS IS STILL NOT VERY CERTAIN AT THE MOMENT. The North Pacific Hot Zone in the Gulf of Alaska is virtually gone. Since it was most likely driving the kinky jet stream over North America during the last two months, the strange extreme weather fronts will now disappear, unless another major round of sunspot activity induces another round of chaos and confusion . From below during the past seven days, Earth activity for the most part has become as becalmed as it was violent in the preceding period. Despite a New Moon Perigee, magnitudes and frequency of quakes were depressed below usual levels. But as warned and predicted here last week, a strong increase in volcanism and continued quake activity on the Carib plate seem to at least partially reflect the shape shifting of the Indo-Trench on the opposite side of the world. As such, there is the strong potential of major tectonic “events” with El Popo and quakes produced by the movement of the Baja Plate. Maintain exceptional vigilance on the Western coasts of the Americas. And watch the volcanoes – a major increase in world volcanism commenced this week and these may become much more active quite quickly..

WANTED: A Spanish Speaker who will volunteer to translate press releases intended for Mexican media in the event that advance warnings are appropriate for a likely catastrophic eruption of El Popo. Please send an email to:

earthchange-bulletins-owner@yahoogroups.com

On the geopolitical front, Sadly, the powers that be are busy organizing an imperial inauguration with extreme extravagance of pomp and circumstance. One hundred years ago such displays by European Monarchs were the object of universal derision and contempt by the common man in the U.S. As the Imperial Faction consolidates its stranglehold over all government agencies and struts its over-weaning arrogance, the U.S. National Democratic Party HAS COMPLETED ITS total demise as a moral force of conscientious representation for its voters. It can neither preserve the legitimacy of honest elections for its members nor conduct a meaningful program of opposition to the most dishonest government in American history. As such it no more than a wreck of old, failed, worthless habit patterns. Meanwhile, of course, the truly bad news remains as Iraq sinks more deeply into anarchy while international economic pressures continue to accelerate the deterioration of the U.S. economy. THE MAIN STRATEGIC OUTSTANDING ISSUE IS HOW SOON AFTER THE ELECTIONS IN IRAQ THE U.S. Imperial Expedition will be forced to withdraw by the combined force of the overwhelming opinion of humankind. There is good reason to suspect they will not remain past Summer 2005.

Go to detailed synopsis…

This hidden column on the right is available for links, banners, and icons of Earth Changes Bulletin subscribers who have made their annual donation. Inquire by sending query for exact procedure by sending a REPLY to the Earth Changes Bulletin weekly email update. YOU MUST HAVE BEEN SUBSCRIBED FOR AT LEAST 30 DAYS TO QUALIFY (or a previous subscriber)..

NOTES

Grayed items are not yet operational

Program Thesis:

What are we trying to do with the Earth Changes Bulletin?

Most news media do not handle technical and scientific subjects like geology and earth sciences very well. They don't understand the causes and effects of activities in the Sun and Earth. Accordingly, they often do not understand if, when, how, why to report earthquakes, volcanic activity, global warming effects The treatment often sounds absent-minded, poorly qualified, and frequently contains various technical errors. Seldom is the treatment entertaining and genuinely educational.

Based on new scientific principles which have emerged during the past thirty years, many of the dynamic activities of the Sun and Earth can be linked together to see how a range of effects are linked together. This makes it possible to paint "the big picture" into a perspective which explains many diverse events and processes, especially climate and weather patterns such as global warming and El Nino. From the "big picture", long range predictions can be made for weeks and even months ahead. The result is sophisticated cutting-edge information which is objective, balanced, astute, relevant, and can be easily seen and appreciated by lay audiences. The perspective is generally global, seldom parochial. For the framework of concepts, terms, and current conditions which are used or described in the these Bulletins, see the Earth Changes 2003 Almanac Calendar.

To see the internet resources which are used to prepare this Update, take a look at the Earth Monitor front page - http://www.michaelmandeville.com/earthmonitor/

The Bulletin is written in Arizona (UTC +8 hours) so any relative references, such as “Today”, or “Tomorrow”, or “Yesterday” should generally to taken to refer to the day spans as experienced in Western North America.

PREVIOUS
WEEKLY

UPDATES

Nov 24 not available as of this date

UPDATE PREDICTIONS FOR 2005 – 2012 and through “The Tribulations”

A systematic synopsis is being assembled which succinctly outlines predictions for the period 2005 – 2012 and through the period of what the Q’ero call the Pachacuti and the Hopi call the “Great Purification” (also known as the “Time of Troubles” or “The Tribulations”. This outline will update the predictions in “The Coming Economic Collapse of 2006” and the “Return of the Phoenix”, mainly by confirming the general plot line and by adding more details which carry the predictions well beyond 2006-2008.

SPONSORING:

THE COMING ECONOMIC COLLAPSE OF 2006, which puts today, tomorrow, and the trends together into the Cayce 25 year economic cycle which will “bottom” in 2006/2007. Click here to download

THIS BOOK STILL COOKS AND IT WILL COOK THE POLITICIANS AND THE ECONOMY ALL THE WAY THROUGH TO 2008: This synthesis is far ahead of the daily digests in all halls of the internet media: so far (since May 2003) the track record on this set of predictions for 2003-2008 is running 100 per cent. If you have not purchased this book, you will remain ignorant of the main dynamics which are rapidly changing everything.

LATEST UPDATE NOTE AS OF JANUARY 6, 2006: On track, most economic conditions are deteriorating. It will be very hard to inflate the current bubbles, most are likely to continue to shrink through the year.

LATEST UPDATE NOTE AS OF JANUARY 6, 2006: On track, as discussed in previous Bulletins. A new quick summary is provided below in the Economy section.

LATEST UPDATE NOTE AS OF DECEMBER 22, 2004: No surprises, everything on track as predicted…conditions remain about the same through to the first week of January – things will then begin to break suddenly…into a fast and furiously changing year. The tide will clearly turn during 2005 on many fronts, collectively marking the end of the American Age and a progressive waning of American stature and prosperity..

LATEST UPDATE NOTE AS OF NOVEMBER 17, 2004:

As per stated below, the bubble is re-inflating for a few more weeks or even months if Al Qaeda does not attack. Oil prices are dropping as stocks and equities firm up and the economy continues expansion with the expectation that American Imperialism will continue (unfortunately) to drive international events during 2005. BEWARE SUDDEN REVERSALS WHEN ALQAEDA STRIKES. BEWARE THE EMERGING SUPER-COALITION IN EURASIA WHICH WILL PROGRESSIVELY UNDERCUT THE AMERICAN DOLLAR DURING 2005, GENERALLY IN A MEASURED WAY WHICH AVOIDS SUDDEN PANIC. This is not a hostile action, it is a sensible reaction of the world to the vast over-reach of America’s Imperial Pretenders. This will produce a strong trend of basic price inflation in the U.S. as basic material commodity prices and the cost of imported goods continue to rise. The world WILL solve the Balance of Payments problem, mainly by raising the dollar costs of imports beyond the means of Americans to purchase them.

ALL DATES AND TIMES USED IN THE EARTH CHANGES BULLETIN ARE NOW UTC = Universal Time Constant, previously known as Greenwich Mean Time.

HOUSEKEEPING

MANDEVILLE IS ON THE RADIO EVERY WEDNESDAY WITH

Alex Merklinger (Millennium Radio) show at 7 PM Arizona Time (6 PM Pacific Time). Regular Weekly Update For The Earth Changes Bulletin. To find Iway archives and stations, see Millennium Radio Network.

MANDEVILLE WILL BE INTERVIEWED ON THE LOU GENTILE SHOW: Fri. Jan. 14, 2005 - 5 PM to 7 PM PACIFIC TIME - http://lougentile.com/

TOPIC: Predictions and Prophecies 2005 and Beyond

· Updating Cayce's Earth Changes and Economic Depression Cycle

· Political/Economic Consequences of Bush's Empire Building

· How all this in 2004/2005 may connect with the Nostradamus prophecy as seen through Dolores Cannon.

Through Gentile's questions I will talk out a lot of predictions and interconnections of prophecies which I have not had time to keyboard into the computer.

Begin Synopsis

As stated in the “Coming Economic Collapse of 2006”, the nature of human politics reflects the communication abilities of the human species. As we transform the media, as we have been on the Iway, we will transform human politics and the entire Earth. Making the way for the New Earth is operationally equivalent to making a new Media on the Iway. Not that that is all that there is to it. Not by a long shot…but IT IS one of the essentials we need to dissolve the blockages and dance around the tyrannies.

SPIRITUAL WATCH

How to converge and express the spirit of mass transformation into manifestation, HOW to be, IS the question. How to do is the praxis of the time. Examining this question, probing it, is the chief trendline of this year.

BREAKING NEWS:

Mayan Elders deliver urgent message: the major Earth Changes of the “Pachacuti” or “Purification” period have begun with the rupture of the Indo-Trench. They expect increasing seismic activity and major quakes of a similar nature to occur through the next several months.

FOR 2005: Some major keywords for 2005 are:

“Gathering”, most especially in the sense of gathering of forces;

“Being”, as in the sense of fully participating in the realization and practice of what we dare to hope we are becoming;

“Accepting”; negatively as in eating the “Karmic Blowback” (the American People are going to take an immense amount of Karmic Blowback for the Tragedy in Iraq); positively as in receiving supportive affirmation for long-suffering spiritual efforts and intentions

“Emerging”, realization and experiencing of the becomings long sought, most especially as in bringing forth the new understandings, orientations, needs, and directions of purpose for a profoundly different world than is celebrated in the Mass Media.

In the positive dimension, around these keywords, many new phenomenon will emerge, especially in the forms of groups and individuals manifesting new activities.

NEXT SEVEN YEARS:

In the negative dimension, the coming “Karmic Blowback” is going to be terrible and shake the very roots of everything in North America from now through to 2012. But a great turning towards peace and a desire for equitable, personal connection to real community is underway in the hearts and minds of a great mass of humanity. This is the entire hope.

STAY FOCUSED ON HELPING THE EMERGENCE OF PEACE, JUSTICE, AND FREEDOM. DENY ALL MOVEMENT TOWARDS FASCISM. THE FASCISTS AND BIGOTS AMONG THE NATIONS ARE GOING TO DELIVER INCREASING QUANTITIES OF KARMIC BLOWBACK TO EACH OTHER. It will be terrible in the coming years, and in 2005 the U.S. will begin to tangibly feel PRECURSERS of the blowback. Nothing is going to “go right” for the North American Powers That Be this year – and it gets worse and worse as the year goes down.

I SUGGEST YOU “DUCK” AND KEEP PUTTING YOURSELF IN A DIFFERENT PLACE ALLTOGETHER – MENTALLY AND EMOTIONALLY AND POLITICALLY AND ECONOMICALLY, AND IF YOU ARE URBAN DEPENDENT, I HIGHLY RECOMMEND THAT YOU BEGIN TO FORM YOUR STRATEGY FOR PHYSICALLY DUCKING THE EMPIRE’S KARMIC BLOWBACK FOR THE PERIOD 2006-2012, ESPECIALLY IF YOU LIVE IN THE EAST COAST BUBBLE.

No-Eyes, the blind old first world prophet of the Rockies had it right 20 years ago, conditions are going to get increasing bad because of the karmic blowback and there is no end in sight until “the Phoenix screeches”.

BREATH FREE. Let go of everything which is disturbed, distorted, or weird. Let go of everything which is forced, contrived, hidden, manipulative, and/or constrictive. Keep flowing with the rising tide of spiritual energies which are filling many thirsty souls. The old patterns are falling away. Transition continues. Embrace new relationships which are trying to form in your life if they are honest and straightforward and provide a new openness. Forget the fears of the unknown, embrace all that which lifts your life into the light of a greater understanding and relationship with the all.

SPIRITS EMERGING: CONFIRMING WHAT I PREDICTED LAST YEAR: “In a short while, some will come forth giving witness to a great energy which has come into their lives, literally, as if the hand of God was upon them. This is becoming more and more apparent and these words will have greater meaning by the end of the year.”

Here is one. ADAM, an 18 year old healer in Vancouver, British Columbia, is beginning to be recognized and is causing more and more of a stir. He is quite possibly a great successor to the Edgar Cayce tradition. If you combine his group “work” with disciplined personal meditation, you have the keys to the full realization of gathering, being, and emergence this year. His two short books, which I had the opportunity to read over the year end holidays are well worth reading and he will tell you in his own words how to operationalize what I had written in this section last month:

Don’t react, go to center, get clear, release, and grieve…the Fourth Age is dying rapidly now… much more rapidly than we thought, its institutions and identities are beyond saving… let it go, let go, get to center…flow into God, let God flow into you…don’t speculate, don’t analyze, don’t react to the shtuff…clear…clean out the past four years…we are now free to grieve the death of everything we detested…let it go…let it go…let it die. As you re-center in God, find the realization that this is the final moment you have been waiting for to end your connections and involvements with the illusions and delusions of all that which has betrayed the divine within each and brought greed, war, and destruction over the Earth.

The destroyers belong to each other, this is now the final time of their fatal embrace. Let them love their wars…they have greatly desired the bitter wines of their hatreds and violence, they have lusted greatly for their Armageddon, and they shall have it.

The die has been cast with a thousand artifices and illusions. With the excellence of its manner of casting, God has delivered to you your own freedom from the delusions and spells of the Mass Sorcerers, indeed, from the entire age, if you will but realize it. Clear yourself and your life to find now the sense of movement and direction to separate your life from the dying culture which is putrefying all around you. There is no saving it…as Buckminster Fuller observed many decades ago, the old order is never saved, the new order merely grows up around it to eventually takes its place. So it will come to pass now in an intense period of vast change during the next twenty years.

The “Great Purification” predicted by the Hopi, Maya, Q’ero, and many others continues. How amazing that these ancient oral traditions could tune into last year and this one to advise us that this was a period of profound historical turning involving

The Great Purification

of the Earth? For additional discussion, see the commentary of May 19, 2004 and the commentary of June 16, 2004.

THE NEW BASIS IS GESTATING….

THE time to link the spiritual communities of the Earth. The Whole Earth. IT HAS BECOME URGENT TO LINK THE SPIRITUAL COMMUNITIES WITHIN A BROAD MOVEMENT WHICH PROVIDES NEW CURRENTS OF SPIRITUAL LEADERSHIP.

FOR THE MOST PART: Steady as she goes. A slow acceleration in the shifting of the poles has been underway for perhaps the past 100 years and the last three decades has shown an increase in the rate of acceleration. This has appeared to accelerate even more during the past decade.

POLAR MOTION

What is happening to the motion of the Earth. For the overall summary of the status of polar motion CLICK HERE. To see the current graphs of polar motion, CLICK HERE. Scroll down the page until you get to the black and white graphs with show the x and y coordinates of the North Spin Axis on two separate graphs.

BREAKING NEWS:

The "jiggle" in the polar motion wobble produced by the 9.2 Indo-Trench quake can be clearly seen on the spiral wobble track.

But, as reported in the past few days…

Polar Motion this week seemingly appears somewhat “arrested”. It is moving hardly at all on its x and y plots this past two weeks. Instead it gives the appearance of tending to move in the X Plot at a direction which is about 90 degrees to the right (to the East) of its normal spiral motion (which shows as a wave form in the daily X Plot maintained by the IERS in Europe). I first reported on this last week but the condition is still present and since then the axis location appears to have scarcely moved.

It is as if two vectors at 90 degrees to each other are contending with each other over which force will move the Earth’s crust the most, and thus move the location of the North Spin Axis in one direction or another.

Since this anomaly is directly synchronous with the Great Rupture of the Indo-Trench, I am deeply suspicious that the events are directly related (the slightly erratic wobble causing the rupture, the rebound of which shifts the wobble into an even more erratic motion).

The specific causes are unknown (the general cause is simple: an accumulating imbalance in the distribution of the mass of the Earth on which centrifugal force acts to push excess mass towards the Equator).

The appearances of the graphs of polar motion suggest that this is an “emerging” and accelerating instability which has been increasing in tempo for at least the past 20 years. (Actually this is an illusion, it is the crust of the Earth which is wobbling and moving as centrifugal force attempts to push accumulating extra mass (such as polar ice pack) towards the equator).

This acceleration in the rate of motion suggests the there is indeed a “Change In The Earth”, as long prophesied, beginning to happen right before our eyes and under our feet.

As many no doubt have been reading, many prophetic “tripwires” among psychics and First World Medicine Wheel elders are clearly interpreting current Earth events as signals and signs and effects of the “Pachacuti”, “Great Purification”, or “Tribulation” which precedes the final avalanche of the crust (shifting of the poles, Ragnarok, Judgment Day, etc.).

The current appearances of the IERS X and Y Plots may be a reporting/transmission issue, and it this condition persists for another few days, I will go get daily raw numbers and create my own plot just to make sure somebody in France is not asleep in front of their computer monitor.

RECENT

ANATOMY OF THE 2004 GREAT RUPTURE OF THE INDO-TRENCH

The outline of the wobble track on the map grid of the world seems to show more clearly every week that the spiraling motion of the North Spin Axis has indeed, as I have suspected for weeks, accelerated its rate of drift. More, it is showing considerable instability in moving through its spiraling track.

Polar motion returned to its spiral track and is currently spiraling tightly inward. OOPS, that was a couple of weeks ago. Now it is very lazily actually drifting away from its X Min track (when the wobble is the smallest approximately every seven years).

It is also having a bad hair month – err, year. Its motion seems more unstable during this past three months and does not appear to be “forming up” in a track appropriate to its last six months of motion. It currently appears to be “spreading” out into a wider spiral rather than it typical.

Take a look at the xplot chart and you will see the beginning of the new outward, horizontal motion on the wave track.

What is it doing? It is always hard to generalize about these motions but I believe we are currently seeing the “blowback” or “feedback” energy of the rupturing of the Earth’s crust in the Indo-Trench.

I believe that the poles are now shifting (have been for the past few years) their ”average” location more rapidly than during the previous century. This accelerated drift is probably due to some mass imbalance in the Earth’s crust. This imbalance is being acted upon by centrifugal motion of the Earth’s spin, which is changing the focal point of the “wobble” in the spin.

Then, about 90 days ago, apparently the drift track of the wobble hit a vector of mass resistance. This resistance was strong enough to flatten the peak of its normal sine-wave spiraling motion in what is called the Xplot of polar motion. This plot is maintained by international cooperation to keep tabs on the exact location of the North Spin Axis from day to day.

Apparently, the normal smooth motion of the Earth’s crust dipping over the theoretical average location of the North Spin Axis toward the Pacific and then back again down was arrested and cut off. The entire Crust of the Earth was arrested in its NORMAL motion. The North Spin Axis was pulled back down into the Atlantic Hemisphere, down towards England earlier and more rapidly than it should have.

Then the normal motion seemed to begin to assert itself and the spiral began to turn inward, as it should be doing at this time, closing toward the X Min point where the wobble will be at its smallest size of its seven year cycle.

I believe this abnormal track of the wobble is one of the primary causes of the Great Rupture in the Indo-Trench. The connection and time parallelism between these two relatively abnormal events is just too close to ignore as mere coincidence.

And…the parallelism gets better. Suddenly the motion of the North Spin Axis began to flare out again this past few days, apparently shifting the focal point for the entire wobble of the North Spin Axis.

I do not have enough of the numbers of actual polar motion (agreed upon and formally reported) to be mathematically precise about this. The IERS generally cogitates on what it will advance as the real numbers to make sure it corresponds will all reports. It will be another month or so until enough real numbers are available on table form to clearly see what may have been the feedback or blowback effect. However, the IERS Xplot is not nearly so shy and currently shows exactly what I am talking about. The current, apparent out-flaring “jiggle” in the Xplot has probably been created by the “ringing” or oscillation of the Earth created by the Christmas Rupture of the Indo-Trench.

FOR 2005:

KEEP IN MIND THAT THIS WATCH HAS BEEN SET TO LOOK EXACTLY FOR THIS TYPE OF DEPARTURE OF THE EARTH FROM ITS PREVIOUS SPIRALING WOBBLE TRACKS. THESE MOTIONS DURING THE PAST 90 DAYS CONFIRMS THE THESIS OF VORTEX TECTONICS AND THE DEDUCTION FOR THE PROJECTED AVALANCHE OF THE CRUST WHICH WAS CALCULATED IN THE “RETURN OF THE PHOENIX”.

(The spiral track takes nearly seven years to define a complete wobble cycle and it takes the entire cycle to be able to calculate the average location of the North Spin Axis in order to compare it against other “average locations” in the previous axis cycles. From this, a straight line track of the “average locations” can be computed and the acceleration in the rate of motion of the “shift” can be defined I believe at the current time that this will show a specific “jump” this past year, a micro “pole shift”. Very micro.)

In general, the Wobble Track is showing continued tightening of the Chandler’s Wobble Spiral, as should be at this time in its 7 year Wobble Cycle, and the track seems to be conforming with a continued acceleration in the rate of drift, but this can be by no means certain until this 7 year cycle is over. In about two years we will be able to locate the minimum spiral of motion and then look for the average 7 year "location" of this past seven years for comparison with previous cycles.

NEXT SEVEN YEARS:

REFERENCE:

http://maia.usno.navy.mil/xplot2.gif

http://maia.usno.navy.mil/yplot2.gif

MAGNETIC POLES – SHIFTING

What is happening to the magnetic fields of the Earth. No real change during the past year: a magnetic pole shift is not something to be very concerned about within this decade at least.

Currently, there is little of note. Despite many claims, there are no apparent trends which will hold up to historical analysis of many different regions of the Earth.

Asteroids

As of June 04,

NASA’S

ESTIMATE:

“Potentially Hazardous Asteroids (PHAs) are space rocks larger than approximately 100m that can come closer to Earth than 0.05 AU. None of the known PHAs (asteroids) are on a collision course with our planet, although astronomers are finding new ones all the time.”

PLANETS & ALIGNMENTS
(all time coordinates here and elsewhere are in UTC unless otherwise noted, dates for planetary alignments are derived from Home Planet Software using PC graphics, due to limitations of software and graphics display, actual timing may be off as much as three days, for scientific work, use a professional ephemeris for exact dates). For background and the current information on planetary alignments go to the Earth Changes Almanac Calendar. The Almanac lays out the planets and the lunar phases for entire year in advance to allow you to find the best and worst periods of weather, earthquake activity, ethereal “lunar” influences, etc.

Daily Planet – click here for sheer artistic pleasure

Every day John Walker’s (Home Planet Software) computer creates a new image of hypothetical habitable planet, just one every day for the estimated 2 billion potential habitable planets in our Galaxy, which the Egyptians more or less named Nun, a mother Goddess from which all life flows. Euro people nursery tales converted the name into the Milky Way. http://www.fourmilab.ch/terranova/terranovag.html

Moon Perigee/Apogee/Phase Data - click here to be always up to date

Earth/Moon Viewer by John Walker
http://www.fourmilab.ch/earthview/pacalc.html

Daily Solar System – click here to view Planet Alignments

The Home Planet software computes in real time the exact relative positions of the planets. Go here to view today’s image of the solar system as seen from a heliocentric view (the sun in the center, you looking at the entire solar system as if it were a big pancake. You can set any date and time. You should generally ask the form to give you the “equal orbits” view so you can see all the planets.

http://www.fourmilab.ch/cgi-bin/uncgi/Solar

TODAY’S MOON

We are in Lunation #1015 and we are now 2 days past the New Moon of January 10 at 1:29 UTC. As of January Day 12, the Moon this day is now in its South Node (orbiting South of the Equator). It is now approximately 367,500 KM from the Earth. It is 9% of the Full Moon (visibility or phase) now waxing into the New Moon of January 10.

LUNAR PERIGEE/APOGEE/PHASE TABLE FOR 2005

Event Day UTC Distance Days +/- Phase

New	10-Jan	12:04
Perigee	10-Jan	10:08	356571 km	N- 1h
Apogee	23-Jan	18:55	406442 km	F-1d15h
Full	25-Jan	10:33
Perigee	7-Feb	22:10	358563 km	N-1d 0h
New	8-Feb	22:30
Apogee	20-Feb	5:00	405805 km	F-3d23h
Full	24-Feb	4:55
Perigee	8-Mar	3:43	363234 km	N-2d 5h
New	10-Mar	9:13
Apogee	19-Mar	22:55	404847 km	F-5d22h
Full	25-Mar	21:01
Perigee	4-Apr	11:11	368490 km	N-4d 9h
New	8-Apr	20:35
Apogee	16-Apr	18:42	404302 km	F-7d15h
Full	24-Apr	10:09
Perigee	29-Apr	10:00	369028 km	F+4d23h
New	8-May	8:49
Apogee	14-May	13:42	404600 km	N+6d 4h
Full	23-May	20:21
Perigee	26-May	10:44	364240 km	F+2d14h
New	6-Jun	21:58
Apogee	11-Jun	6:13	405505 km	N+4d 8h
Full	22-Jun	4:16
Perigee	23-Jun	11:50	359674 km	F+1d 7h
New	6-Jul	12:05
Apogee	8-Jul	17:40	406362 km	N+2d 5h
Full	21-Jul	11:03
Perigee	21-Jul	19:46	357159 km	F+ 8h
Apogee	4-Aug	21:50	406629 km	N- 5h
New	5-Aug	3:06
Full	19-Aug	17:55
Perigee	19-Aug	5:33	357395 km	F- 12h
Apogee	1-Sep	2:36	406209 km	N-2d16h
New	3-Sep	18:46
Perigee	16-Sep	13:59	360405 km	F-1d12h
Full	18-Sep	2:02
Apogee	28-Sep	15:21	405306 km	N-4d19h
New	3-Oct	10:28
Perigee	14-Oct	13:51	365449 km	F-2d22h
Full	17-Oct	12:14
Apogee	26-Oct	9:36	404492 km	N-6d15h
New	2-Nov	1:24
Perigee	10-Nov	0:16	370013 km	F-6d 0h
Full	16-Nov	0:57
Apogee	23-Nov	6:19	404370 km	F+7d 5h
New	1-Dec	15:00
Perigee	5-Dec	4:33	367364 km	N+3d13h
Full	15-Dec	16:16
Apogee	21-Dec	2:50	405013 km	F+5d10h
New	31-Dec	3:12
Full	14-Jan	9:48

SEISMIC SYZYGY WINDOWS

QUALIFER: As we have seen at least three times this past year, most dramatically with the recent outbreak (Oct 23-26 2004) of large Earthquakes on the West side of Honsho Island (Japan), the Syzygy Window and Perigee principles DO NOT WORK CONSISTENTLY TO FORECAST AN INCREASE IN MAGNITUDE NOR FREQUENCY OF EARTHQUAKES. Using strictly an intuitive view of the past 12 months, the rate of accuracy is definitely larger than random but probably not larger than about 70% for any given area.

FOR THE YEAR 2005

The strongest syzygies (based on the combination of the Lunar Phase with Perigee) during the first half of the year should tend to be around the New Moon. The New Moon and Perigee combination is the strongest this January (occurring at virtually the same time on January 10) and the combination gradually gets weaker during the year and is at its lowest during the Summer.

It works just the opposite this year for the Full Moon. The Full Moon is currently the weakest syzygy (based on its distance from the Earth) during January and it will gradually become stronger, achieving its greatest pull on the Earth in June and July. (Cancer natives will have a maximum power Lunar whammy this year). Then it gradually gets weaker during the remainder of the year while the New Moon is slowly gaining again in strength.

FOR THIS WEEK

We are just about out of the seismic New Moon Syzygy of January 7–14.

So far, as predicted last week, this syzygy has not been strong compared to other Syzygies during the past year, using strictly the logic of gravity influences between the Moon and the Earth. IN FACT, THIS SYZYGY PERIOD HAS BEEN QUITE WEAK IN PRODUCING SEISMIC EVENTS…so far.

Is this a correlate of the current “arrested motion” in the crust which began to show up just after the rupture of the Indo-Trench? It may be and the Heads Up of January 4 (see below) may thus be unnecessary for this syzygy period as we very well may not see any major earth quakes through the next seven days.

Jim Berkland, the originator of using syzygy to define the most active periods of seismic activity has a more complex method for computing dates and you may want to use his methods for greater precision. For details see the Syzygy website

Seismic/Tsunami Heads Up All Zones Pacific Rim of Fire & Indonesia

Special Alert of the Earth Changes Bulletin as of January 2004

(ECB, January 4, 2004) There is substantial danger of additional major rupturing of the Earth's Crust and the creation of major Tsunami forces during the next 30 days. The 9.0 Great Rupture of Christmas 2004 in the Indo-Trench may be just a precursor toadditional major seismic, volcanic, and tsunami activity to occur within the next three to four weeks.

The Great Rupture in the Indo-Trench was preceded by about 24 hours with a Great 8.1 quake in the Southeastern edge of the Australian tectonic plate in a region of the seafloor near Macquarie Sound to the South of New Zealand. A new quake struck in the same location about 24 hours ago as of this date-time stamp (approximately January 3 2004 at UTC 6:00 pm). It was a major quake of 6.1, though this magnitude is puny compared to the earlier Great Quake of 8.1 the day

before Christmas 2004.

Unlike the week long aftershocks which continued to strike the Indo- Trench, the Macquarie Sound quake was not accompanied by aftershocks. This new quake may indicate another round of motion in the Australian tectonic plate is beginning and thus this may be a signal that additional rupturing will occur along the Northern and Western edges of the Australian plate and/or directly once again along the Indo-Trench.

However, during the past 24 hours, seismic activity has fallen off

dramatically in Indonesia. After a week during which almost the

entire world's seismic activity was exclusively focused along the

Indo-Trench, quake activity has fallen there and appears at the

moment to be building up in the Philippines, Japan, and California. A quake even appeared in Greece.

Accordingly, at this moment, the tectonic signals are mixed. As

well, cosmic signals are mixed, but cosmic forces will shortly

consolidate gravitational influences to exert nearly maximum torque effects on the Earth.

The Great Indo-Trench rupture occurred during a Full Moon Syzygy as the Earth was approaching very close to its annual orbital Perihelion (closest approach to the Sun). At the moment the Moon is between syzygies (alignment of the Earth-Moon-Sun in a straight line) during which quake activity usually abates to a considerable extent. However, the Earth is still approaching its orbital Perihelion, which will be about January 6.

At Earth's Perihelion, the Sun will have its maximum gravitational

effect on the Earth, pulling most strongly on the Southern Hemisphere, tending to pull the Australian plate UP towards the equator where it is colliding with areas such as the Indo-Trench.

This influence will be greatly magnified by the New Moon Syzygy

during January 7 through to January 14. The New Moon on January 10 will be very close to halfway between Apogee and Perigee (its closest approach to the Earth) in a straight line with the Sun. This will create a very strong gravitational pulling force on the crust of the Earth during the current annual cycle. This pulling of the Moon and the Sun will combine a pull of the South to the North against the Equator with an East to West pull of all continents against their adjacent oceanic floors.

Since the Carib Plate is nearly on the Equator and will be squeezed especially strongly during this coming syzygy, along with the entire Northern Arc of the Australian Tectonic Plate, ranging from the Solomon Islands through to the Nicobar Islands, major rupturing could also occur in Central America down through Peru.

At somewhat lesser risk may be the Northern Arc of the Pacific Rim of Fire but the current build up of seismic activity in the region may be signaling much more activity to come during the next two weeks. The most destructive quake activity during the last 15 years in Japan, California, and the Puget Sound has been in the period of late December to January through to as late as March. Clearly the Perihelion phase is the most dangerous period for large destructive quakes and the recent rupturing in the Indo-trench may be merely a precursor to more to come during the next 90 days, most especially during the next 14 days.

Adding to this mix of strong forces and potential major tectonic

motions is a complex set of planetary alignments which appear to

cluster most strongly around January 13. One of these alignments is a straight line between the Sun, Earth, and Saturn. Though the gravitational impact of this is not significant (theoretically) on Earth, the electromagnetic impact of these alignments is often very strong on both the Sun (in the form of major sunspots, CME's, flares, and solar wind disturbances) and the Earth's weather (which is strongly modified by any increase in solar activity).

Accordingly, some increase in solar activity is to be expected during the next several days. These increases will likely drive another round of major storm fronts to hit major continents. These may in turn increase the probability of increased tectonic activity. Some geophysicists have been speculating in recent years that these solar storms and major weather fronts on Earth have an indirect impact on stimulating an increase in tectonic activity through an increase in drag forces against the Earth's crust and by making the normal slight wobbling motion of the Earth more irregular than normal. These fluctuations may cause shifts in the stress in earthquake faults, pushing some of them "over the edge".

Adding to this mixture are a large number of warnings from most

people who watch the Earth's tectonic activity avocationally or who tune into it psychically. Most "tripwires" seem to believe that

additional major "events" are on the way during the next 30 days.

Accordingly, given the constellation of material forces and various human impressions, all peoples who live in the Pacific Rim of Fire and along the Australian Plate, especially those on the coasts, should at all times maintain a heightened sense of vigilance

MOST ESPECIALLY DURING THE NEXT 30 DAYS.

Right now is the time to work through your evacuation plan. It is a useful drill for anytime and it may be needed in somewhere during the next 90 days. If you fall into the target areas outlined above, DO IT NOW.

(Perigee = the Moon’s closest approach to the Earth during its monthly orbit which increases gravitational influence of the Moon by as much as 15%; Apogee = the Moon’s greatest distance from the Earth during its monthly orbit). (Berkland has a more complex formula for syzygy and his dates are often different.) For details see the Syzygy website.

THE NEXT PLANETARY ALIGNMENTS

For any “Home Planet Software” charts of the planets which are shown here or through URLS which are provided on this page, you can decipher which planet is which by counting the orbital rings if you do not know the signs which denote the planets. Mercury is 1 closest to the Sun, Venus is 2, Earth is 3, Mars is 4, Jupiter is 5, Saturn is 6, Uranus is 7, Neptune is 8, Pluto is 9, and both Planet X and Nibiru are bogus.

IMPORTANT NOTE ABOUT PLANETARY/SOLAR INFLUENCES: Solar Cycle 23 is rapidly approaching its minima period when solar activity and sunspot counts will be minimal most of the time. But even so, major sunspot peaks, big flares, coronal holes, and powerful CME’s will still occur once in a while, as the graphs of previous sunspot cycles definitely show. These flare-ups will be a lot less predictable than during the past four years, which makes the large flare-ups even more intrusive.

LIST OF ALIGNMENTS THROUGH TO JUNE 30, 2005

From January through to June 2005, four particular periods stand out for their potential to induce major reactions in the solar atmosphere and pull out huge ionic storms, high sunspot counts, and major effects on the Earth’s weather.

SO FAR…fortunately, the odds of major solar eruptions are beginning to decline dramatically. The alignments of December and early January have not produced any significant increase in sunspot counts or solar storms.

(knock on wood, this current alignment could cause sunspot counts to climb for another three days)

The Aphelion Six Way Cluster Bomb

At or near the Earth’s Perihelion (closest approach to the Sun) Mercury will once again align progressively with the inner planets during a 30 day period.

January 13, 2005 Mercury & Mars close couple to
Venus | Pluto and Earth | Saturn
January 27, 2005 Mercury | Venus with Pluto close couple

The Spring Grand Alignment

Jupiter | Earth | Mercury | Sun | Venus

Beginning by about March 7, at least major peaks in the sunspot count should produce three major waves of early Spring storm fronts. The largest peak should form up about the Spring Equinox and the largest storm front should blow in about the time of the Grand Alignment

March 14, 2005 Mercury | Saturn
Spring Alignments begin in three main spirals
March 21,2005 Mars | Pluto with a spiral forming in
Mercury | Earth | Jupiter and another in Venus | Uranus
March 30, 2005 Jupiter | Earth | Mercury | Sun | Venus
form a virtual straight line through the solar system with Mars and Pluto still closely coupled. Observers on Earth will only be able to physically see Jupiter rising on the Eastern horizon just after sunset and Saturn close to the Mid-heavens in the Western half of the sky. In the very early morning Mars and Uranus will be visible.

Summer Ping Pong

June 7, 2005 Venus | Saturn with Mercury moving up in close alignment, followed on June 10 , 2005 with Mercury forming a triplet with Venus and Saturn as Earth couples with Pluto and
Mars | Neptune. The timing of these alignments between these planets is not exact, the electromagnetic balances of the solar system will shift in a complex way, probably producing a number of ups and downs in the sunspot count.

PLANET WATCHING

For background and the current information on observable planets.

NASA INVITES YOU TO VIEW SATURN: “On Thursday, January 13th, Saturn will be 750 million miles from Earth--the closest we get to the ringed planet all year long. Step outside around 7:30 p.m. and look east. Golden Saturn is easy to find next to Castor and Pollux in the constellation Gemini.”

NASA'S DATA ON NEAR EARTH ASTEROIDS: "Potentially Hazardous Asteroids (PHAs) are space rocks larger than approximately 100m that can come closer to Earth than 0.05 AU. None of the known PHAs are on a collision course with our planet, although astronomers are finding new ones all the time.”

On 22 Dec 2004 there were 662 known Potentially

Hazardous Asteroids (three more than last month). For January 2005, NASA has listed three Earth-asteroid encounters ranging from 14 to 15 LD’s away (see below).

ASTEROID	DATE (UT)	MISS DISTANCE	MAG.
1998 DV9	Jan. 11	30 LD	15
2004 EW	Feb. 14	23 LD	16
2004 RF84	Feb. 27	23 LD	14

Notes: LD is a "Lunar Distance." 1 LD = 384,401 km, the distance between Earth and the Moon.

SUNSPOTS

The events in the solar atmosphere which impact weather and climate patterns, the magnetic field and auroras, including forecasts for the week, month, and year ahead. CLICK HERE for background information.

To follow the numbers below, click here to view the Solar Cycle 23 Chart. Or, get the data in a NOAA Table.

AS OF JANUARY 12: The Sunspot Count has bobbed up and down between 14 on December 16 and 40 on January 10 for the past three weeks and was sinking downward at 14 on January 12 when the Index of Solar Flux was 94 and rising.

All in all a lackluster response to a variety of planetary combinations. But the Earth | Saturn alignment is proving potent. The Flux jumped today to 102 and the sunspot count climbed to 54.

Mercury aligns with Mars on January 13 while Earth and Saturn align and Venus and Pluto cluster close.

We could see a doubling yet again for this new peak. If so…

…all weather fronts will drive once again into extremis.

Solar Cycle 23 is dying quickly but IT CAN AND WILL OCCASSIONALLY PRODUCE SUDDEN STORMY MOMENTS WITH BRIEF MOMENTS OF HIGH SUNSPOT COUNTS, CME’S FLARES, ETC. “NOW” is the kind of moment when these spritzy solar moods will come.

But looking at the sunspot charts for the past 60 days suggests that the count is more likely to stay below 70.

Date Flux Sunspots Area

2005 01 02 100 52 250

2005 01 03 94 43 160

2005 01 04 88 30 40

2005 01 05 88 15 30

2005 01 06 83 14 30

2005 01 07 84 22 80

2005 01 08 89 34 170

2005 01 09 88 28 190

2005 01 10 90 40 180

2005 01 11 94 25 120

2005 01 12 102 58 600

MONTHLY AVERAGES IN SOLAR CYCLE 23
These numbers are reported by Jan Alvestad

Over all, the sunspot average count (ISSN) for February 2004 was 46.0. By November 2004, the count was still abnormally high at 43.7, making the decline of Solar Cycle 23 slow indeed. But December clearly brought the end of the high sunspot counts. The average dipped down to a low of 17.9, surprising everyone. The predicted average value for January is 27, so if we notice an increase during the next few weeks, it will just be the law of averages asserting itself.

AS PREVIOUSLY OBSERVED: Once again we are reminded that the Sun and its cycles are really not very “average” and not very “cyclical” or “regular”. Nowhere can we find any evidence of an exact regularity, only constant variations. The Sun is and probably always has been a vast cauldron of chaotic storms, electro-magnetic upwellings, and enormous explosions and sudden flares (or CME’s) which can extend out as far as even the outer planets, producing somewhat chaotic impacts on the planets.

All this makes exact predictions of solar activity far beyond the pale of human science, even with first class models of the electromagnetic gradients created by the planets and their orbital relationships. From this it is easy to infer with considerable experience and conviction, that nothing on Earth can be foreseen, EXACTLY. Just as some order is inevitable, so is some chaos built directly into the cosmos.

But even so the average count should drop during the next 12 months to a monthly low in the range of 10. More and more, now and for the next half dozen years, the Sun will influence Earth’s atmosphere and weather less and less. Global Warming and El Nino type of phenomena will be more and more influential compared to the solar input. The geo-data we gather during the next three years about weather, climate, the Arctic, Antarctic, Drought Regions, etc. will be extremely valuable in telling us what the true long-term geo-trends really are.

SOLAR ACTIVITY

As reported by NASA/NOAA unless otherwise stated. (Sudden surprises and huge storms are always possible even during sunspot minima periods such as the one we are currently headed into). Descriptions and numbers are based on numbers as given by iway sources at about 1:00 – 3:00 PM Arizona Mountain Time (which does not have daylight savings time).

The Solar Wind was robust at: 681.9 km/s this hour while pushing a modest density of 2.1 protons/cm3”.

Solar activity is low but picking up. THE OUTLOOK FOR THE NEXT TWO DAYS IS FOR SUBSTANTIAL ACTIVITY, NO DOUBT RELATED TO THE Earth | Saturn alignment.

Fluxgate Magnetometer: The Fluxgate Chart at the University of Alaska (which measures magnetic disturbances in the Earth’s atmosphere created by solar winds and ion storms) is showing several mild disturbances during the past 36 hours (as of this time, about 2 PM Mountain time US). To see the Fluxgate moment to moment, CLICK HERE.

NASA AURORA WATCH: “Earth is inside a high-speed solar wind stream, which is causing mild geomagnetic storms. Sky watchers should be alert for auroras.”

NASA REPORTS: “Sunspot 720 was tiny yesterday, almost invisible. Today it is blossoming into a giant at least 4 times wider than Earth”

Notice how Sunspot 720 is rotating around in almost perfect synchronicity to align dead on with the Sun | Earth | Saturn alignment on January 13.

NASA has produced a great image of the BIG SUNSPOT 720 which is apparently growing for the Earth | Saturn alignment. This is a potent sunspot region, it has already spawned the large increase in the sunspot count today. Don’t miss viewing it. This image provides a basic classic illustration of what happens when planets “pull” together on the electromagnetic atmosphere of the Sun.

http://www.spaceweather.com/images2005/12jan05/720_big.gif

Nasal is warning that Sunspot 720 may produce strong solar flares (X class) and many additional sunspots

NASA PREDICTS: “Solar activity could soar if this active region continues its rapid growth.” There is a 10-15% probability of geomagnetic storms, 10%-25% probability on coronal holes, CME’s, and M and/or X Class Flares.

Jan Alvestad reports: “The geomagnetic field was quiet to active on January 11. Solar wind speed ranged between 388 and 464 km/sec. A moderately high speed stream from coronal hole CH138 ended at about 14h UTC. At about 20h UTC a strong high speed stream from coronal hole CH139 arrived at ACE. Solar flux measured at 20h UTC on 2.8 GHz was 94.2. The planetary A index was 14…At midnight there were 2 spotted regions on the visible solar disk. The solar flare activity level was low. A total of 2 C class events was recorded during the day. Region 10718 developed slowly. The region became more complex as positive polarity flux emerged just ahead of the leading negative polarity spots. C flares are likely. Further development will increase the likelihood of M class flares with associated Earth directed CME's. Flares: C1.4 at 16:16 and C1.1 at 23:29 UTC. Region 10720 developed extremely quickly and already has the potential to produce M class flares… No obvious fully or partly Earth directed CME's were observed.”

Jan Alvestad predicts: “The geomagnetic field is expected to be unsettled to major storm on January 12 and quiet to minor storm on January 13-14 due to a high speed stream from coronal hole CH139. A flanking impact from the CME observed on January 9 is possible on January 12.” Alvestad also predicts for the next 24 hours a 0-20% probability of coronal holes, a 20-60% probability of CME’s, and a 60-100% probability of M and/or X Class Flares.

WORLD WEATHER SUMMARY

Those who have been watching the weather patterns track the Sunspot Peaks have seen that the correlations between sunspot peaks and major storm fronts coming in off the oceans to track across the continents is roughly pretty good, sometimes very much exactly on the mark. Accordingly, our “sloppycasts” (approximate continental weather patterns) this past few years have proven out to be fairly worthwhile. With the decline in sunspot activity, weather is now more governed by Earth’s geophysics and will be mostly through to about 2010. For geophysical-based reports and predictions – start with Yahoo Weather, or the Weather Channel. Am I resigning from weather forecasts? Almost. This section will only add commentary on possible weather disturbances when major sunspot peaks form up. These should be more rare than during the past four years.

AS PREDICTED. A LOT OF SNOW EARLY IN THE MOUNTAINS, A LOT OF FLOODS, INTENSE WEATHER…

FOOLED YOU, DIDN’T WE NOW.

Oh my…

All weather came about as I predicted. Much more on the way…but for this I am merely listening to the weathermen. The sun’s input is mostly irrelevant. It is back to old-fashioned ocean temperatures, jet streams, and polar conditions.

I think the weather patterns pretty much prove up the case of Global Warming and reveal what the essential syndrome is going to be: a major shift in the eco systems of the extreme North and the desert zone latitudes with short intense Winters and Summers and long drawn out often stormy Springs and Falls.

The Pacific Southwest is clearly going to get a LOT more rain this winter and this may be a recurring feature. If so, it will change everything here. Some say, it is merely returning the area to be more what it was like several decades ago.

I am not sure what this says about Global Warming, but it says a lot about the Pacific Southwest. I have been wondering about how the Pacific Southwest could show so many extreme erosion patterns with such little rainfall this past five years. I have just seen more erosion and shifts of earth in the “dry washes” in the past month than I have seen in the past four years.

EARTH WEATHER PREDICTION FOR THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS

(Northern Hemisphere) This “sloppycast” is based on sunspot counts, planetary alignments, and visual data shown on satellite and radar.

ALL CLEARING RAPIDLY

BUT SOLAR ACTIVITY COULD INCREASE RADICALLY AND INDUCE INTENSE IONIC STORMFRONTS. IF SO, THE ATMOSPHERE AND THE JET STREAM WILL GO INTO CHAOS AGAIN UNABLE TO PATTERN OUT FOR A COUPLE OF WEEKS.

So, the next seven days either clear out weather patterns into normality or begin to drive them into chaotic extremes.

The forecast is very clear. It is 50% probability of anything. Enjoy.

EARTH WEATHER PREDICTION FOR WINTER SEASON

(Northern Hemisphere) This “sloppycast” is based on sunspot counts, planetary alignments, and visual data shown on satellite and radar.

THE WARM WATER PATCH IN THE NORTH PACIFIC (GULF OF ALASKA) is dissipating VERY RAPIDLY now, ALMOST NEARLY GONE, and the jet stream is unkinking. Air flow should begin to revert to the normal winter syndrome.

As of December 26, the warm water in the North Pacific (Gulf of Alaska) decreased in size. This has probably been the source of our “El Nino Norte”.

Most locations have probably received the worst of the winter and the worst of the snowfalls and floods. As predicted, I believe this is going to be an early, intense, but short winter – an evolving new syndrome which reflects Global Warming Dynamics.

So far we are right on this track. All conditions should begin to moderate out with a few more of the inevitable storm systems which are normal for this time of year but these will be milder and drier, slowly drying up until Spring brings Spring showers, quite early.

FOR SPRING:

During the end of March we will have another major round of weather en extremis, due to the five planet straight line alignment. After a mild ending to Winter, the first week of Spring will rapidly turn into a very stormy period of about two weeks of extreme Weather.

KEEP WATCHING FOR THIS GLOBAL WARMING WEATHER PATTERN: Global Warming could easily intensify the seasons, making a short bitterly cold Winter, longer intermediate stormy Spring and Fall seasons, and shorter but very hot and dry summers. Don’t we already see this pattern at work in the Northern Hemisphere?

SOUTHWEST CONDITIONS

This “sloppycast” is based on six years of living in the USA Pacific Southwest, the sunspot counts, planetary alignments, and visual data shown on satellite and radar.

The weather is moderating quite nicely. Grass is growing everywhere…and flowers bloom on the Sonoran. I suspect the worst of Winter is over and that the Sonoran will have a long Spring with some occasional light rain getting rarer and rarer until the Summer Monsoon begins. I am not sure at this point what is in store for the Summer Monsoon.

AS PREVIOUSLY OBSERVED: The past 60 days has clearly broken the drought pattern of the past four years. You can see it in the plants and the atmosphere everywhere. It “feels” wet here now even on a sunny day, which it rarely has during the past six years (that I have been here). Some climatologists are arguing that this is an anomalous wet year for the Pacific Southwest and that the drought will reassert itself next year or the year after. I am inclined to think that the drought in the Southwest is a product of both the Sunspot Cycle 23 and the Global Warming syndrome. From this, I suppose that the drought pattern may be somewhat reduced during the next four years during the Sunspot Minima, submerged completely by a lot of rain during El Nino, if it appears, but slowly the drought will reappear during the next climb of sunspot counts during Solar Sunspot Cycle 24.

EL NINO & LA NINA WATCH
The watch is now open again; Pacific water activity appears mostly normal, we are between the extremes of the ENSO; Click here for the NOAA window on the Pacific Ocean Temperatures:

http://www.cdc.noaa.gov/map/clim/sst_olr/sst_animated.gif

AS OF JANUARY 2, conditions along the Pacific Equator continued to WARM SLIGHTLY.

The trend is still weak BUT CLEARLY ACCELERATING. El Nino MAY OR MAY NOT OCCUR. No prediction one way or the other is truly possible at the current moment but if anyone will lay me odds at Vegas, at the moment I will bet on one.

Conditions for El Nino are a little stronger than the preceding couple of weeks.

If El Nino does begin to firm up, it will have little impact on the Winter of 2005, but it may begin to impact the Spring and hit heavy and hard during the Summer and Fall months and perhaps deliver a VERY wet and warm Winter for 2006.

Or not…only time will tell. Probably by April we will know for certain.

AS REPORTED PREVIOUSLY – THE CLASSIC EL NINO – We do not at this point know whether an El Nino is in the offing for 2005. Purely in accordance with the X Wave correlation which I discovered in the Vortex Tectonics Model, AN EL NINO IS MORE PROBABLE THAN NOT IN 2005. But, the El Nino is not like an astrophysical cycle. There are some “missing” El Nino’s in the record of the 20^th century and we may have a missing one. HOWEVER, WE CAN’T BE CERTAIN UNTIL ABOUT APRIL OF 2005, which is about the latest month in which the syndrome has formed up during previous El Nino’s.

ADDITIONAL NOTE: The year 2004 and/or 2005, in accordance with the 100 year X Wave Graph of the motion of the spin axis in Chandler’s Wobble, COULD BE EL NINO YEARS. Graphs of various El Nino periods seem to show that the beginning of temperature build-up can occur as late as April of an El Nino year. So 2005 may not be callable until early Spring 2005.

KEEP WATCHING THE ARCTIC, ANTARCTIC, and the desert zones. These areas are the most objective front line observatories of the climate shift.

GLOBAL WARMING

It is becoming obvious that we have a long term real shift in the average temperatures and climate regions related to the latitudes. This climate shift is creating a growing environmental disaster in the polar zones and in the desert-prone latitudes such as in the Pacific Southwest. For the latest short review, see Earth Changes Bulletin Update As Of May 26, 2004 and the Earth Changes Bulletin Update As Of August 18, 2004

AS PREVIOUSLY OBSERVED: It is now clear that a “wet winter” is well under way for almost all of North America and Mexico, even the normally dry desert areas in Arizona and New Mexico. This is already overcoming some of the effects of the drought. After a highly unusually wet Fall, moisture starved plants in the Mojave, Sonoran Desert Plain and along the Mogollon Foothills, are suddenly growing like crazy, pretending as if it were April. Many plants have bloomed during November and December and green grass, only rarely seen in lower elevations, is growing widely throughout Arizona.

At the moment it would be hard to think that the area is in a drought period, but it is very clear that the area, like much of the planet, is experiencing some pretty weird unseasonable climate patterns.

Where all this is going only the wind can tell...

AS PREVIOUSLY REPORTED ABOUT THE LIKELY IMPACT OF GLOBAL WARMING ON HURRICANES–

For others comments on Global Warming,

Earth Changes Bulletin Update As Of August 25, 2004

For backgrounder information about Global Warming and how to look for it and correlate it to the real causes (solar influx and tectonic heat rifts in the bottoms of the oceans), see

Earth Changes Bulletin Update As Of July 14, 2004

IONIZING SOLAR ACTIVITY & MASS BEHAVIOR

AS OBSERVED AS OF DECEMBER 30: As the sunspot counts decline and fail to peak for the planetary alignments, the impact on humans and the biosphere is declining progressively. Relatively more human activity will tend to be more driven by mental activity and spiritual connectivity than emotional impulses.

This does not favor the Imperial Faction and the Sorcerers in the Mass Broadcast Smokescreen Industry. The strength of the emotional associations which they rely upon to program mass behavior will have less and less power during the next four years.

This is going to be especially true with the four year jag of emotional associations around “patriotism”. During 2005, patriotism and martial ardor will become increasingly “old” among the young and the marginal. More and more soldiers will wake up and realize they have been on a “bender” which left them in a literal hellhole.

As solar activity ebbs into low activity levels, have you noticed that the polls are increasingly showing that people think the Tragic Invasion of Iraq was in fact A MISTAKE (now some 60%) and that 65% believe Rumsfeld should go.

People collectively are losing the ardor of blind emotional commitments which the sorcerers in the Mass Broadcast Media and the agents of HillBilly Sunday whipped up. They are waking up to a wicked hangover in bed with a very ugly mess.

This shift is palpable and will grow in magnitude and depth. The Imperial Faction will stall out rapidly during 2005, it is increasingly unlikely that they will have their way in the Middle East.

EARTHQUAKES

Around the world to see the current and potential patterns of seismic activity, with coverage of the windows of danger. Unless otherwise specified, all quake activity which is discussed is based on the USGS database charts and tables which list quake activity in excess of 2.0 mag. and above. Unfortunately there are many lags in reporting of information about quakes, thus neither the numbers of quakes nor the actual quakes discussed may be complete and accurate. Real time analysis of quake patterns is merely AN APPROXIMATION BASED ON INCOMPLETE INFORMATION. FOR MORE QUAKE INFO RELATED TO SYZYGY WINDOWS, Jim Berkland calculates syzygy windows with considerably more sophistication than I do. See Syzygy.com

I AM VERY CONCERNED THAT THE EARTH IS “COCKING THE TRIGGER” THIS YEAR FOR MAJOR TECTONIC ACTIVITY WHICH WILL BREAK OUT IN CENTRAL AMERICA AND IGNITE EL POPO IN A CATASTROPHIC ERUPTION. THIS HAS BEEN PREDICTED IN A COSTRA NOSTRA DAMUS PREDICTION AND RECENTLY I HAVE DISCOVERED THAT IT WAS ALSO MOST LIKELY PREDICTED DIRECTLY BY THE WORLD FAMOUS MICHEL DE NOSTREDAME. (See details below)

In the meanwhile, world seismic activity has nearly dropped off the charts to great the most powerful New Moon Perigee Syzygy with a yawn. The Indonesian area continued to dominate the release of seismic activity this past week but activity continued to broaden throughout the world, especially along the equatorial belt of the Earth.

Frequency and Magnitude was generally down everywhere, even finally in Indonesia. But not in the Great Rift of the Earth. At least five quakes struck, one them quite robust, a 6.8 in the Mid Atlantic Rift between Brazil and Africa.

Another milder quake struck in the Mid Atlantic Rift further to the North to the East of the Carib Plate and a 4.9 struck the Mid Indian Rift at its juncture with the Antarctic Tectonic Plate. At least four quakes struck at widely separated points around the Antarctic Tectonic Plate.

The largest number of quakes were on January 6, when 29 mostly mild quakes struck in a scattered pattern in many places as well as in considerable concentration in the Nicobar Islands. Most of the other past seven days had only about 10 to 12 each. This is highly anomalous for a syzygy.

Most of the world's tectonic activity was along a broad zone of the tropics from the Nicobar Islands through Indonesia and along the Northern edge of the Australian Tectonic Plate to the Solomon Islands and then to Central America and Peru/Chile

The greater part of the world’s seismic energy above 3.0 for the last seven days continued to be expressed around the Northwestern margin of the Australian Tectonic Plate, mainly in the Indo-Trench. But activity began to spread more evenly during the last several days to Greece, East Africa, to the Philippines, Japan, the Carib Plate, and Southern California.

COSA NOSTRA DAMUS WATCH FOR SOUTH CAL.

SUPER ALERT FOR THIS WATCH!!!

As witnessed by the Indo-Trench Rupture and the aberrant motions of the Earth’s crust, global tectonic motions in the Earth are unstable and obviously are tending to exceptionally explosive releases in the trenches of tectonic collision and in the spreading Great Rift zones.

The Western ledge of the Carib Plate is 180 degrees from the 9.2 quake in the Indo-Trench. Accordingly, the Carib Plate may also release its “shape-shifting” stress during one of the upcoming Lunar syzygies this year. This release could come in the form of major volcanism and major Earthquakes which breaks out first in Central America and then presses the Baja Plate enough to ignite the pattern of earth quakes which are described in the Costa Nostra Damus psychic prediction. We are watching for signals of this possibility very carefully because it will mean life or death for millions of people in Mexico City.

AS PREVIOUSLY OBSERVED: according to the Cosa Nostra Damus Prophecy, a major destructive quake could now strike at any time in Santa Barbara, Santa Monica, Hollywood, the Van Nuys Valley region, Bakersfield, and anywhere along the escarpment of the San Bernardino Mountains. This will be a follow up to the 4.9 quake which was felt in Coos Bay Oregon during July 2004. If a quake occurs near Santa Barbara, warnings will need to be given to Mexico City about the possibility of a major explosive event in Popo.

A RECENT 4.4 EARTHQUAKE ON JANUARY 6 IN THE LOS ANGELES BASIN WAS FOLLOWED WITHIN FIVE DAYS BY A MAJOR FLARING OF VOLCANIC ACTIVITY IN EL POPO.

This has abated today but WAS THIS ACTIVITY IN THE TWO PLACES MERELY A GLOBAL COINCIDENCE? I DON’T THINK SO. I THINK WE ARE TUNING INTO THE INTERCONNECTION OF THE TECTONIC MOTIONS AND ACTIVITIES, POINTED OUT BY SPIRITUAL SOURCES, WHICH WILL MARK THE FINAL PROOF OF THE TRUE BEGINNING OF THE MAJOR EARTH MOVEMENTS WHICH WILL INDUCE THE “CHANGE IN THE EARTH” OVER THE PERIOD OF THE NEXT 20 YEARS.

Here was the quake:

Magnitude 4.4 GREATER LOS ANGELES AREA, CALIFORNIA

Thursday, January 06, 2005 at 14:35:27 UTC

Preliminary Earthquake Report

U.S. Geological Survey, National Earthquake Information Center

World Data Center for Seismology, Denver

Location 34.12N 117.44W

Depth 4.2 kilometers

Region GREATER LOS ANGELES AREA, CALIFORNIA

Reference 15 km (10 miles) W of San Bernardino, California

20 km (10 miles) NNW of Riverside, California

20 km (15 miles) ENE of Ontario, California

615 km (380 miles) SE of SACRAMENTO, California

TODAY ANOTHER mild quake of similar size struck Southern California. Watch the reaction of El Popo during the next several days. It abated its activity today but it may bounce back up suddenly during the next four.

Magnitude 4.3 SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA

Wednesday, January 12, 2005 at 08:10:46 UTC

Preliminary Earthquake Report

http://neic.usgs.gov/neis/bulletin/neic_teae.html

U.S. Geological Survey, National Earthquake Information Center

Location 33.95N 116.39W

Depth 7.5 kilometers

Region SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA

Reference 20 km (10 miles) NE of Palm Springs, California

30 km (20 miles) NNW of Indio, California

40 km (25 miles) WSW of Twentynine Palms, California

690 km (425 miles) SE of SACRAMENTO, California

SLOW EARTH MOVEMENT WATCH

No reports to add this week

SHAPE-SHIFTERS WATCH

The quake activity in the Great Rift is one of the most important harbingers for the Earth Changes Watch to monitor. As the Earth’s crust adjusts its shape in response to gravitational and spin energy vectors, quakes in the Great Rift increase and tectonic activity all around the world increases. (Unless otherwise specified, all quake activity which is discussed is based on the USGS LOCAL AREA database charts and tables which list quake activity in excess of 3.0 mag. and above. Generally most of the quakes which appear in these counts are 4.5 plus in magnitude.) For additional information on Plate Tectonics and charts of the Great Rift of the Earth, go to Plate Tectonics Map

Six shape-shifter quakes struck in the Great Rift during the past seven days, two of them struck in middle of the Mid Atlantic Rise one measuring magnitude 6.8 between Brazil and Africa and another struck mildly at 4.7 East of the Carib Plate. Another vigorous shape-shifter, measuring 6.0, struck at the bottom of the Atlantic Ocean along the edge of the Antarctic Tectonic Plate. The other three quakes struck at widely separated points along the Antarctic Plate.

Magnitude 6.8 CENTRAL MID-ATLANTIC RIDGE

Wednesday, January 12, 2005 at 08:40:03 UTC

Preliminary Earthquake Report

http://neic.usgs.gov/neis/bulletin/neic_teaf.html

U.S. Geological Survey, National Earthquake Information Center

Location 0.84S 21.21W

Depth 10.0 kilometers

Region CENTRAL MID-ATLANTIC RIDGE

Reference 1095 km (680 miles) NW of Ascension Island

1290 km (800 miles) ENE of Fernando de Noronha, Pernambuco, Brazil

1710 km (1060 miles) ENE of Recife, Pernambuco, Brazil

3360 km (2090 miles) ENE of BRASILIA, Distrito Federal, Brazil

Location Quality Error estimate: horizontal +/- 11.5 km; depth fixed by location program

Magnitude 6.0 SOUTH SANDWICH ISLANDS REGION

Saturday, January 08, 2005 at 18:45:03 UTC

http://neic.usgs.gov/neis/bulletin/neic_taba.html

Preliminary Earthquake Report

Location 55.20S 27.82W

Depth 10.0 kilometers

Region SOUTH SANDWICH ISLANDS REGION

Reference 170 km (105 miles) NNW of Visokoi Island, South Sandwich Islands

430 km (270 miles) NNW of Bristol Island, South Sandwich Islands

570 km (355 miles) ESE of Grytviken, South Georgia

3300 km (2050 miles) SE of BUENOS AIRES, Argentina

Magnitude 4.7 NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC RIDGE

Thursday, January 06, 2005 at 00:54:01 UTC

Preliminary Earthquake Report

http://neic.usgs.gov/neis/bulletin/neic_sydv.html

U.S. Geological Survey, National Earthquake Information Center

Location 16.22N 47.19W

Depth 10.0 kilometers

Region NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC RIDGE

Reference 1590 km (990 miles) NE of GEORGETOWN, Guyana

2025 km (1260 miles) E of SAN JUAN, Puerto Rico

Location Quality Error estimate: horizontal +/- 26.9 km; depth fixed by location program

Magnitude 5.5 SOUTH OF AFRICA

Thursday, January 06, 2005 at 03:28:51 UTC

Preliminary Earthquake Report

http://neic.usgs.gov/neis/bulletin/neic_syaj.html

U.S. Geological Survey, National Earthquake Information Center

Location 52.57S 27.60E

Depth 10.0 kilometers

Region SOUTH OF AFRICA

Reference 960 km (600 miles) SW of Marion Island, Prince Edward Islands

2535 km (1570 miles) S of Durban, South Africa

Magnitude 5.0 EASTER ISLAND REGION

Saturday, January 08, 2005 at 16:08:18 UTC

Preliminary Earthquake Report

http://neic.usgs.gov/neis/bulletin/neic_taam.html

U.S. Geological Survey, National Earthquake Information Center

Location 26.86S 107.24W

Depth 10.0 kilometers

Region EASTER ISLAND REGION

Reference 220 km (135 miles) E of Hanga Roa, Easter Island

3585 km (2220 miles) W of SANTIAGO, Chile

Magnitude 4.9 MID-INDIAN RIDGE

Sunday, January 09, 2005 at 23:18:01 UTC

Preliminary Earthquake Report

http://neic.usgs.gov/neis/bulletin/neic_tbaz.html

U.S. Geological Survey, National Earthquake Information Center

Location 24.78S 70.02E

Depth 10.0 kilometers

Region MID-INDIAN RIDGE

Reference 885 km (550 miles) SE of Rodrigues Island, Mauritius

1380 km (860 miles) ESE of PORT LOUIS, Mauritius

3885 km (2410 miles) E of Durban, South Africa

NORTH AMERICAN WATCH

Unless otherwise specified, all quake activity which is discussed is based on the USGS LOCAL AREA database charts and tables which list quake activity in excess of 1.0 mag. and above. Generally most of the quakes which appear in these counts are in the range of 1 to 2 in magnitude. Any numbers used in this section may or may not be accurate and may or may not reflect what will eventually appear in scientific databases. IMPORTANT NOTE: Most volcano monitoring sites appear to be screening out microquakes. A study needs to be done to establish how to reconcile various lists and databases because of this practice. The numbers below cannot be considered to be definitive totals and subtotals. We use them merely to observe relative fluctuations from week to week.

Seismic activity in North America overall for quakes in the range of 1.0 and over was generally about the same this last week. Activity rose in Alaska and declined slightly in most other areas. Most activity was basically random.

US & ALASKA & ISLANDS --- 530

up from 518 the prior week

BIG ISLAND HAWAII (not including microswarms) --- 7

down from 14 during the prior week - these do not include the microquakes under Mauna Loa

CALIFORNIA – NEVADA --- 319

down from 323 last week, widely scattered in California and Nevada;

LONG VALLEY - MONO LAKE REGION – 28

up from 21 last week – widely scattered

PNW --- 99

down from 110 last week; scattered but still dominated 80% by St. Helens activity;

NE Cal - East of Klamath Falls, Oregon --- 0

down from 1 last week; these are almost certainly volcanic related, quakes have broken out here off and on during the past two years.

UTAH --- 27

up from 24 last week.

YELLOWSTONE WATCH

YELLOWSTONE -- 3 widely scattered

down from 10 last week

WEEK’S MOST SIGNIFICANT QUAKES

The 6.8 today in the Mid Atlantic was the world’s most significant quake, for many reasons, this past week. See above

VOLCANOES

Around the world with the most interesting and relevant volcano stories; briefs on the likely eruptions as well as coverage of on-going activity. For information on current eruptions, see the Southwest Volcano Centre. Or see “Breaking Volcano Eruption News”.

OBSERVABLE WORLD VOLCANIC ACTIVITY HAS DEFINITELY INCREASED THIS PAST SEVEN DAYS. Many of the intermittent “smokers” flared up in new ash plumes and lava flows, led as nearly always by renewed ash plumes in Etna. Kilauea of course is still oozing lava and it has been joined by a few more volcanoes around the world. More surprising were new eruptions of ash and lava in three volcanoes in Guatemala.

We obviously have passed the null point for volcanic activity, which usually occurs during the last 60 days of the year. Activity as predicted here last year has already begun to pick up and more probable than not will continue building up on through June of 2005, when once again it will begin to taper off.

Saint Helens is still building a dome along with several look-alike dome-builders on the Kamchatka Peninsula, but these were all upstaged by a new (real) eruption today of Veniaminof on the Alaskan Peninsula. Colima is still smoking and was joined suddenly by a major ash eruption in El Popo during the past 48 hours.

Far more interesting were the sudden flare up of eruptions this week in Guatemala, the home of the Mayan Elders. Three new ash and lava eruptions began somewhat abruptly, including in world famous St. Maria. These eruptions have been punctuated by a 6.8 quake today in the Mid Atlantic Ridge to the East of Brazil and a milder quake of 5.0 in the Mid Atlantic Ridge due East of…surprise…Guatemala!

This all suggests rather strongly, as predicted by the EC Bulletin during the last week, that the Carib Plate IS INDEED A MIRROR OPPOSITE OF THE INDO-TRENCH (180 degrees on the opposite side of the Earth). It is thus accelerating its tectonic activity to adjust the shape of Central America to balance out the changes in the shape of the Earth which occurred in Indonesia and the Nicobar Islands.

WHAT TO EXPECT FROM THIS: Anything on the Carib Plate (East, West, North, or South) is in danger of major tectonic activity during the next 90 days, especially around the Perigean New Moons.

SAINT HELENS VOLCANO UPDATES

Text in this section is a condensation of direct quotes from online source:

CURRENT UPDATE supplied by the U.S. Geological Survey, Vancouver, Washington; University of Washington, Pacific Northwest Seismograph Network, Seattle, Washington; U.S. Geological Survey, Vancouver, Washington; University of Washington, Pacific Northwest Seismograph Network, Seattle, Washington

Wednesday, January 12, 2005 10:00 a.m. PST (1800 UTC)

MOUNT ST. HELENS UPDATE

Current status is Volcano Advisory (Alert Level 2); aviation color code ORANGE

Growth of the new lava dome inside the crater of Mount St. Helens continues, accompanied by low rates of seismicity, low emissions of steam and volcanic gases, and minor production of ash. During such eruptions, episodic changes in the level of activity can occur over days to months. The eruption could also intensify suddenly or with little warning and produce explosions that cause hazardous conditions within several miles of the crater and farther downwind. Small lahars could suddenly descend the Toutle River if triggered by heavy rain or by interaction of hot rocks with snow and ice. These lahars pose a negligible hazard below the Sediment Retention Structure (SRS) but could pose a hazard along the river channel upstream.

Potential ash hazards: Wind forecasts from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), coupled with eruption models, show that ash clouds that rise above the crater rim today would drift east-southeastward.

Recent observations: The volcano is obscured by clouds today. Weather permitting on Friday, we plan to install two instrument packages on and near the new lava dome. A package on the northeast portion of the uplifted area between the new and old lava domes will contain a video camera and gas sensor. The video camera will provide detailed information on rates and patterns of dome growth and the gas sensor will provide real-time information on volcanic-gas concentrations in the air near the dome. The other package will be installed on the north end of the new lava dome. It will contain a GPS unit and a seismometer. The aim of both installations is to obtain data that will help us to correlate dome movements and seismicity so that we can better understand the process of dome extrusion.

For additional information, background, images, and other graphics: http://vulcan.wr.usgs.gov/News/framework.html

USGS Cascades Volcano Observatory, the Pacific Northwest Seismograph Network at the University of Washington, and the USGS Northern California Seismic Network and Volcano Hazards Team in Menlo Park, California, monitor the major volcanoes in the Cascade Range of northern California, Oregon, and Washington. The U.S. Geological Survey and the University of Washington continue to monitor the situation closely and will issue additional updates and changes in alert

For additional information, background, images, and other graphics: http://vulcan.wr.usgs.gov/News/framework.html

For seismic information: http://www.pnsn.org/HELENS/welcome.html

For a definition of alert levels: http://vulcan.wr.usgs.gov/News/framework.html

Telephone recordings with the latest update on Mount St. Helens and phone contacts for additional information can be heard by calling: Media (360) 891-5180 General public (360) 891-5202

OTHER CASCADE VOLCANOES as of January Day 12 2004
Same source as above.

All other volcanoes in the Cascade Range are all at normal levels of background seismicity. These include Mount Baker, Glacier Peak, Mount Rainier, and Mount Adams in Washington State; Mount Hood, Mount Jefferson, Three Sisters, Newberry, and Crater Lake, in Oregon; and Medicine Lake, Mount Shasta, and Lassen Peak in northern California.

LATEST FORECAST FOR SAINT HELENS BY EC BULLETIN: Look for the next increase in eruptive behaviour in St. Helens to occur in tandem with an increase in activity on Kamchatka Peninsula and/or in Alaska. Activity among these volcanoes will progressively increase and reach a peak in the period of May – July.

AS OBSERVED LAST WEEK: At least three of the active volcanoes on Kamchatka Peninsula are behaving in many ways very similar to St. Helens. Perhaps we shall see these four volcanoes, which are in the Northern Arc of the Pacific Rim of Fire, flare up virtually simultaneously.

AS REPORTED PREVIOUSLY: Colima may be the closest “model” for how St. Helens may behave during the next few years. Both may erupt off and on with lava flows, as Colima does now from week to week, or with occasional ash plumes, then slowly stewing for weeks and months on end while merely steaming like nearly two dozen other volcanoes around the world, steaming until the next eruptive episode of ash and lava, which may last from a few days to several months. More probable than not, St. Helens will have sudden flare-offs and a few major ash plumes during the next year, but no major, explosive eruption which comes even close to its 1980 eruption. It will continue to sporadically emit steam and ash like Colima and Popo for the next few years. How much and how vigorously remains unpredictable.

Here are the SWVC volcanic activity numbers as of January Day 12 2004: (SWVC does it annual database cleaning and new predictions for the year at this time, accordingly its numbers in early January “break” sequence with the last numbers in December).

7 on restless list (could go on active list at any moment) (up 2 from 5 last week)

25 on alert list – up from 24 last week (alert list are volcanoes with pre-cursor activities suggesting that activity may begin)

19 on active list (seismic, gas, steam, lava, ash, or explosive activity) (up from 17 a week ago)

Popo gave a 12 puff day yesterday. Centrapred reports for January Day 12 (17:00 GMT) that “In the last 24 hours, the system of monitored of Popocatépetl volcano registered 12 exhalations of low intensity accompanied by steam of water and gas. At the moment of this report it is observed the volcano with light water steam emission and gas. In an aerial photograph taken on November 12 by SCT, subsidence is observed in the inner crater; an external lava dome at the bottom of the crater cannot be distinguished. Due to the low levels of activity shown in the past days, the scenarios consisting of explosions and ash emission are less probable.”

HIGHLY INTERESTING NEW PLATE TECTONICS RESOURCE:

Digital World Tectonic Activity Map (DTAM) - visualization tool that presents an actual representational view of global tectonics; created using current global datasets of seismicity, volcanism, and plate motions.

MOST ACTIVE VOLCANOES THIS WEEK

from Volcano Breaking News by Volcanologist John Seach

Volcano Travel: john@volcanolive.com

Dates in red are posted in Eastern Australian Time (UT + 10 hr)

Three Volcanoes Erupt in Guatemala
Wednesday 12th January 2005
Three volcanoes have erupted almost simultaneously in Guatemala. Pacaya, Santa Maria, and Fuego have all been emitting ash and lava, forcing residents to be evacuated. It is 31 years since all three volcanoes erupted together.
Pacaya erupted a 75 m lava flow SW of the central crater. Santa Maria had incandescent explosions of lava with ash column to 1.6 km altitude. Ash fall reached nearby villages. Fuego erupted grey plumes 800 m above the crater. Incandescent lava was emitted 30 m above the crater and occasionally caused an avalanche of blocks towards the valley Taniluyá.
More on Pacaya Volcano...
More Santa Maria Volcano...
More on Fuego Volcano...

Bezymianny Volcano (Russia)
55.97 N, 160.58 E, summit elevation 2882 m, stratovolcano
Wednesday 12th January 2005
Bezymianny volcano erupted at 1223 hr (UT) on Tuesday 11th January. Scientists predicted the eruption several days before it actually started. The seismic activity of the volcano had been increasing since January 3-4. The number of tremors and their magnitude grew every day. An ash plume reached 33,000 ft and drifted 150 km NW. The eruption started at 19:52 local time (10:52 Moscow time) on January 11 and reached its maximum between 20:23 and 20:31 local time. Its magnitude was three times greater than that of the previous eruption that occurred on June 19-20, 2004. Visual monitoring of the eruption was impossible due to bad weather conditions in the area at the time of the eruption. A cyclone was passing over the region. Bezymyanny eruptions are very powerful, but normally do not last long. They regularly occur once or twice a year. The volcano does not present danger to inhabited areas of the peninsula. The nearest town Kluchi is located 40 kilometers to the north of the volcano. Ash emissions might be dangerous for air traffic, and also to tourists, fishermen and hunters in the vicinity of the volcano. The volcano eruption has ended.
More on Bezymianny Volcano...

Teide Volcano (Canary Islands)
28.27 N, 16.64 W, summit elevation 3715 m, stratovolcano
Tuesday 11th January 2005
A report has been received of an increase in unrest at Tiede volcano in the Canary Islands over the past 2 weeks. Carbon dioxide emissions have risen from 75 to 354 tons per day. Hydrogen sulphide emissions have risen from 35 to 152 tons per day. Seismic activity remains elevated under the volcano. Fumaroles have increased in their pressure, and now emit sounds. There is no significant deformation of the land observed.
More on Teide volcano...

Popocatepetl Volcano (Mexico)
19.023 N, 98.622 W, summit elevation 5426 m, stratovolcano
Tuesday 11th January 2005
A large eruption occurred at Popocatepetl volcano on 9th January at 16:47 hours. Ash emission reached 5 km above the crater, followed by ashfall in surrounding towns. The intense phase of the eruption lasted 15 minutes and was followed by high frequency tremor. After the erruption Popocatepetl returned to its previous level of activity which consisted of low intensity emissions of steam, gas and occasionally small amounts of ash. The traffic light of volcanic alert is in YELLOW-1. Access is restricted in a radius of 12 km from the crater.
More on Popocatepetl volcano...

Anatahan Volcano (Mariana Islands)
16.35 N, 145.67 E, summit elevation 788 m, Stratovolcano
Tuesday 11th January 2005
The eruption of Anatahan volcano continues to increase, with explosions occurring every 10 seconds. Anatahan is an uninhabited island located 75 miles north of Saipan and 200 miles north of Guam. No ash fall has been reported on Saipan so far. Anatahan volcano first erupted after centuries of inactivity on May 10, 2003, with ash plume rising to an altitude of more than 30,000 feet.
More on Anatahan Volcano...

Taal Volcano (Philippines)
14.002 N, 120.993 E, summit elevation 400 m, stratovolcano
Monday 10th January 2005
Two earthquakes hit Taal volcano last night (Sunday 9th January). The earthquakes were small but sent resident into panic, who feared a tsunami. About 300 families fled to Pulo public market and Balas High School in Talisay. Taal volcano has a history of destructive tsunamis which accompany volcanic activity. The alert status at Taal volcano has been increased to level 1. The Philippine Institute of Volcanology and Seismology stated that an eruption is unlikely at this time, but warned residents to stay away from the danger zone.
More on Taal Volcano...
More on volcanic tsunamis...

Anatahan Volcano (Mariana Islands)
16.35 N, 145.67 E, summit elevation 788 m, Stratovolcano
Monday 10th January 2005
The activity at Anatahan volcano intensified last Tuesday and Wednesday after months of low seismic activity. An overflight showed red lava being thrown hundreds of feet into the air by Strombolian eruptions. The volcano is also emitting ash to 5000 ft elevation which is falling back on to the island, threatening to bury the regrowing vegetation which was covered in the 2003 eruptions, where more than a million cubic metres of ash were deposited on land and sea. During the last 48 hours, the seismic signals have changed from harmonic tremor to broader band tremor with frequent explosion signals, several times per minute.
More on Anatahan Volcano...

Mt Etna Volcano (Italy)
37.73 N, 15.00 E, summit elevation 3350 m, Shield volcano
Sunday 9th January 2005
Ash eruptions were visible at Mt Etna volcano on the morning of 8th January. A significant amount of ash was was emitted from SE crater. A strong northerly wind sent ash towards the south. The activity was of short duration, and the crater returned to steam emissions after one day. This new activity was not preceded by seismic activity, similar to the lava flow last September. A red glow was visible at SE crater, indicating the proximity of magma to the surface. This indicates an increase in activity at the volcano, and the first eruptions from SE crater in more than a year.
More on Mt Etna volcano...

Anatahan Volcano (Mariana Islands)
16.35 N, 145.67 E, summit elevation 788 m, Stratovolcano
Friday 7th January 2005
The third recorded eruption of Anatahan volcano began about 0540 UT (1540 MI) on 4th January. The eruption was preceded by two days of seismic activity at the volcano. The eruption was small and no large explosions were recorded. A low plume of ash up to about 500 ft was visible on January 5th (MI). A hotspot was visible on satellite images indicating the proximity of magma to the surface. The Emergency Management Office, Office of the Governor, CNMI, has placed Anatahan Island off-limits until further notice and concludes that, although the volcano is not currently dangerous to most aircraft within the CNMI airspace, conditions may change rapidly, and aircraft should pass upwind of Anatahan or farther than 30 km downwind from the island and exercise due caution within 30-50 km of Anatahan.
More on Anatahan Volcano...

Standing Assessment: Likely, it is fair to conclude that the not-so-invisible Black Arts Nation, from HAARP to the Navy, to the Bush/Ashcroft prisons in Iraq/Afghanistan and Cuba, not to mention many other technologies, areas, and programs, are far out of ethical, moral, constitutional, and treaty control, as has been widely feared.

BLACK ARTS NATION

We are just on the front edge of “the outing”….

OR ARE WE?

SADLY, NO CHANGE THIS WEEK. It looks like we are being taken collectively to the cleaners.

So far the scandals are being kept in the closets of Washington DC. Votescam 2004 should be big news and so should the prisoner abuse scandal, not to mention the growing international interest in pulling down Rumsfeld with indictments to eat his own words.

But very little is manifesting in actual dynamics of change. So far, the Democratic response to Gonzales’ nomination for A.G. is hopelessly gutless. Only today’s challenge in Congress to the legality of the Ohio Electors offers any hope.

But this challenge is being conducted so tepidly, or least is being reported so tepidly, it is real obvious that the fix is in and that the National Democratic Party is almost an entirely lost cause.

Funny, but real Democrats in a small, remote, conservative state don’t feel and talk like National Democrats at all. As an elected Precinct Committeeman, I attended a meeting of the Yavaipai County Democratic Committee to meet the Executive Director of the Arizona State Democratic Committee. He wanted to ask County Democratic Committees what went wrong with the elections of 2004.

I opined at the beginning with the thought that Kerry may not have actually lost the election. This opinion met with genuine affirmative verbal response by several people in the room and from the reaction of the 50 people who were there, I believe I could have carried a resolution to demand a complete new election in Ohio to replace its crooked one.

AS I WALK AROUND AS A REAL PERSON IT IS TOTALLY OBVIOUS TO ME THAT THERE IS A HUGE, FUNDAMENTAL DISCONNECT BETWEEN THE EAST COAST BUBBLE, AS CENTERED IN WASHINGTON DC AND NEW YORK, AND THE REMAINDER OF THE U.S.

BUT AS OBSERVED LAST YEAR. The auguries are not clear to me this past two weeks on how any of this is going, or even if any of this IS going anywhere during the next several months. If none of this goes anywhere, take it as a given, take it as a fact, that all is lost on the Republic and we have passed into in the deep twilight zone of a Fascist nightmare for which there may not be any electoral remedy…at least not while we are mired within the deep sorcery which the Mass Broadcast Media now casts in greater depth all around us. It is as if after the elections they turned up the volume of manipulation by at least a half turn of the knob.

Despite impeccable scientific reasoning, high caliber informed observers and investigators, the story of the stolen elections simply will not be told in America through the corporatized media. By their acts, said the good saint, ye shall know them. Doubtless, we are in very deep doodoo and, with few exceptions, the only things allowed on TV are a bunch of chickens clucking through the mire.

ONCE AGAIN, Michael Moore’s has it about right. He is asking the Senate to act to restore Ohio with a valid election. Go read it at http://www.michaelmoore.com/words/message/index.php?id=179.

Better yet, tell you Senators and Congressmen to undertake an investigation into the weirdness of Ohio’s election.

ECONOMY WATCH

NO CHANGE THIS WEEK OF JANUARY 12

ALL SIGNALS MIXED, THE ECONOMY IS “WOBBLING” WITH VERY LITTLE “GOOD NEWS” OR HOPES. As throughout most of 2004, there are still no signs of a general recovery of the classic 20^th century kind. MOST COMMENTARY AND EXPECTATIONS ARE PESSIMISTIC FOR 2005. The most optimistic projections appear to be in the nature of “holding” firm with small improvements. The worst expectations are dire indeed.

I predict that most of the expectations will turn sour after May or June. I also predict that they will become more and more morose as the economy begins to show a rapid movement into recession during the later part of the year and then clearly moves into depression in 2006.

STAGFLATION IS BUILDING MOMENTUM FOR A CONSIDERABLE RISE DURING 2005.

COMMODITY PRICES WILL CLIMB RAPIDLY DURING 2005 TO CATCH UP WITH THE HUGE INCREASE IN ENERGY COSTS (UP SOME 30% THIS YEAR). This will generate a pernicious inflation in NORTH AMERICA.

The economy will never regain any sense of confidence in government efforts to build the basis for more solid growth. The Bush administration will continue to lose credibility, will come under severe legal pressure from wide ranging indictments, perhaps even impeachment proceedings (long overdue), and this gathering loss of political confidence will destroy corporate confidence.

This loss of confidence may be experienced first in Europe and Japan, even China, which may bring the recessionary pressures home to the U.S. with a rapid decline in demand for American products and a shrinking profit base for American companies overseas.

AS OBSERVED IN DECEMBER: With the re-election of George Bush a completely new scenario for the next two years is needed. It is this: the main driving force of the economy will transition fully into an Imperial economy. It will be based on major militarization of the U.S. to AMP up Empire Building for general export. We may be as in Germany as in approximately 1934-6. During the 1930’s, while much of the world was mired in a deep depression, Germany, Italy, and Japan under the Fascists (Corporate National Plutocracy) prospered in a wave of tremendous prosperity for their workers. The Fascists terminated all external debt to the international banks and recycled their currencies highly astutely without the need to finance debt. That is why Hitler, Mussolini, and the Japanese Militarists were so fervently supported.

A massive empire building drive to export “Order” over the greater portion of the world’s petroleum reserves will shore up the value of the petro dollar quite nicely and preserve its hegemony well through the “peak oil” period. Huge expenditures on armaments should provide a continuing stimulus of the North American economy, enough to at least keep it gimping along while the Empire is consolidated.

The eventual eclipse of well oil poses no long term problem. Only naïve analysts are worried. Once oil supply is seriously declining and oil prices can be maintained above $80/barrel, some people in the oil industry, including David Rockefeller, understand the means of “growing” your own. They have held the secrets of this for some 23 years.

THE ONLY BUMP ON THE ROAD TO THE IMPERIAL ECONOMY is “global warming”. This is bringing people into other solutions than the use of oil. Is this not a course of development the cabals of great wealth in America must resist as strongly as they can? If this is correct, we would expect that a great political struggle will be waged on both sides of this global warming issue. We should expect to see that the Republicrats will resist encouraging a replacement for oil to the very bitter end. Without dominance over oil, their feudalized world will dissolve away from them.

BACKGROUNDERS FOR JANUARY ON THE STATE OF THE U.S. ECONOMY

Associated Press

Retailers Report Unimpressive Dec. Sales

Thursday January 6, 4:18 pm ET

By Anne D'Innocenzio, AP Business Writer

Nation's Retailers Report Generally Unimpressive Sales Figures for Holiday Shopping Season

NEW YORK (AP) -- The 2004 holiday shopping season turned out to be a bumpy one, with last-minute shoppers giving some retailers solid results but other storeowners struggling to a disappointing finish.

It was hard to discern a trend Thursday as merchants reported December sales, the final assessment of the holiday season. Costco Wholesale Corp., Target Corp., teen retailer Abercrombie & Fitch Co., Federated Department Stores Inc., and upscale stores like Neiman Marcus Group Inc. all surpassed Wall Street projections but Sears, Roebuck and Co., Gap Inc., Pier 1 Imports Inc. and May Department Stores Co. were among the disappointments.

Wal-Mart Stores Inc., which stepped up discounting after a slow start to the season, posted a decent but not outstanding 3 percent rise in same-store sales, or sales at stores open at least a year. That was a slightly higher than Wall Street's forecast.

"The Christmas season was just OK, clearly salvaged by the last-minute shoppers and steep discounting," said Ken Perkins, an analyst at RetailMetrics LLC, a research firm in Swampscott, Mass. "Stores that have been struggling over the last couple of months appear to be continuing that trend. And for stores that have been doing well over the last several months, December was a good month."

Perkins noted that two-thirds of the 65 retailers that reported sales Thursday beat Wall Street's modest sales estimates, a reversal of November's results.

But the heavy discounting needed to bring consumers into stores came at the expense of profits, prompting retailers including Target and Pier 1 to cut fourth-quarter earnings projections, according to Todd S. Slater, a retail analyst at Lazard Freres & Co.

The International Council of Shopping Centers-UBS same-store sales tally of 77 retailers for December rose 2.7 percent, which was below the already reduced forecast of 3 percent to 3.5 percent.

That means same-store sales for the combined November-December period were up 2.3 percent, below the 2.5 percent to 3 percent forecast, according to Michael P. Niemira, chief economist at the association. November's final same-store sales tally was up a slim 1.8 percent.

The holiday performance was weaker than the 4.0 percent gain posted in 2003, and in line with the holiday 2000 and 2001 seasons, which averaged a 2.3 percent gain.

Still, as Niemira noted, the holiday season "had a lot of things going on," making it difficult to measure its success. The season was marked by the increasing popularity of gift cards, sales of which are not recorded until consumers redeem them, and the increasing popularity of online shopping, which is are not included in retailers' same-store results.

Online sales for the November and December period rose a better-than-expected 29 percent to $15.8 billion, according to comScore Networks Inc.

The season had an uneven start at Thanksgiving, prompting many merchants to step up discounts, but consumers didn't start shopping seriously until the week before Christmas. The surprise this season came the week after Christmas, when many stores saw a bigger-than-expected bump from the redemption of gift cards.

At apparel retailer Ann Taylor Stores Corp., sales "were better than we had anticipated given November's weak performance, with most of the improvement coming in week five" of the season, chairman J. Patrick Spainhour said in a statement.

American Eagle Outfitters Inc., which reported a better-than-expected 32.8 percent same-store sales increase on Wednesday, said same-store sales soared 90 percent in the week after Christmas compared to a year earlier.

Although procrastination has become the norm during the holidays, consumers' uneasiness contributed to their late shopping -- they were looking for marked-down merchandise. While gasoline prices have fallen, they are still high, and consumers, particularly low- and middle-income Americans, have cut spending on non-essentials. Many consumers are also worried about job security.

The Labor Department underscored the uneven nature of the labor market Thursday, reporting that the number of new people signing up for jobless benefits shot up last week. New applications filed for unemployment insurance increased by a seasonally adjusted 43,000 to 364,000, the highest level since late September.

The unimpressive holiday performance raised questions about consumers' ability to spend in 2005, as factors like an uncertain job market and high fuel prices are not going away. Rising interest rates will also add to consumers' expenses.

"Consumer spending moving forward has a weak tone," said Anthony Chan, senior economist with J.P. Morgan Fleming Asset Management in Columbus, Ohio. "Stores will have to keep inventories lean and offer good value" to get consumers to spend this year.

Wal-Mart had to work hard to generate December's 3 percent same-store sales gain, which was at the high end of the company's projections, and higher than the 2.3 percent forecast by Wall Street analysts in a survey by Thomson First Call.

Target had a 5.1 percent gain in same-store sales, better than the 4.2 percent estimate.

Costco had a 9 percent increase in same-store sales, better than the 6.3 percent Wall Street expected.

TJX Cos. Inc. reported a 6 percent same-store sales gain, above the 2.8 percent forecast. "In general, Christmas business surged late in December, as we had expected," Edmond J. English, president and chief executive officer, said in a statement.

Among department stores, upscale merchants did the best. Neiman Marcus enjoyed a 10.8 percent increase in same-store sales, better than the 7.9 percent forecast.

But Sears suffered a 3.0 percent same-store sales decline in its domestic business, while Wall Street's forecast 0.2 percent. "Relatively strong sales at the end of the holiday shopping season were insufficient to offset a slow start to the month," said Alan J. Lacy, chairman and CEO, in a statement.

Penney had a 1.2 percent decline in same-store sales, better than the 2.7 percent Wall Street expected.

Federated had a 2.3 percent increase in same-store sales, better than the 1.1 percent forecast.

May had a 3.3 percent same-store sales decline, close to the 3.5 percent estimate.

Among apparel chains, Limited Brands Inc. had a modest 2 percent same-store sales gain, better than the 1.4 percent forecast. Gap had a 1 percent same-store sales decline, worse than Wall Street's 0.1 percent projection.

Pier 1 suffered an 8.8 percent decline in same-store sales. Analysts had expected a 4.3 percent decline.

Teen retailers generally did well. Pacific Sunwear of California Inc. had a 5.3 percent same-store sales increase; Wall Street expected 4.0 percent.

Abercrombie & Fitch had a 10 percent gain in same-store sales, much higher than the 0.7 percent estimate.

On Wednesday, Nordstrom Inc. reported a same-store sales gain of 9.3 percent, better than the 3.6 percent forecast.

Jobless Claims Climb, Retail Sales Mixed

Thu Jan 6, 2:00 PM ET

By JEANNINE AVERSA, Associated Press Writer

WASHINGTON - The number of new people signing up for jobless benefits shot up last week, highlighting the sometimes uneven nature of the recovery taking place in the labor market.

The Labor Department (news - web sites) reported Thursday that new applications filed for unemployment insurance jumped by a seasonally adjusted 43,000 to 364,000, the highest level since late September. The over-the-week increase of 43,000 was the most since the end of March 2002.

The latest snapshot of the labor market activity surprised economists. They were forecasting claims to rise last week to around 331,000.

However, in a more positive note, the number of claims that had been filed in the prior week turned out to have fallen by 10,000, according to revised figures. That drop was twice as big as initially reported.

"Even though we are in an expansion phase, the jobless claims statistics continue to come in very choppy," said Richard Yamarone, economist at Argus Research.

The more stable, four-week moving average of claims, which smooths out week-to-week fluctuations, rose last week by a smaller 750 to 333,000.

Labor Department analysts cautioned that jobless claims figures around the holidays can swing widely from week to week. In these cases, the four-week moving average is sometimes a better barometer of labor market activity, they said.

On Wall Street, investors took the latest figures on jobless claims in stride. The Dow Jones industrials were up 42 points in morning trading.

In other economic news, consumers — the lifeblood of the economy — spent decently during the holiday shopping season.

Last-minute shoppers gave retailers overall a respectable 2004 holiday season, with a variety of stores from discounters to apparel sellers reporting better than expected sales, according to reports from the nation's retailers.

Costco Wholesale Corp., Target Corp. and upscale merchants like Neiman Marcus Group Inc. all surpassed Wall Street projections. But disappointments included Pier 1 Imports Inc. and jeweler Zale Corp.

On the labor market front, strengthening job creation has been an important task for President Bush (news - web sites). The still-recovering job market has been seized upon by Democrats who contend the president's economic policies have failed to induce a steady hiring spree by businesses.

Employers added 112,000 jobs in November, down from 303,000 in October. Economists, however, are hoping for a pickup in December's payrolls and are forecasting the addition of around 175,000 jobs during the month. The jobless rate is expected to hold steady at 5.4 percent. The employment report for December will be released by the government on Friday.

Looking ahead, the Bush administration predicts the economy will create an additional 2.1 million jobs in 2005 — a figure private economists called respectable. Still, that's a much lower estimate than a previous forecast that 3.6 million jobs would be created next year.

The Federal Reserve (news - web sites), encouraged by the economy's performance, boosted short-term interest rates for a fifth time this year on Dec. 14. Fed policy-makers at that meeting said "labor market conditions continue to improve gradually."

The number of people continuing to collect jobless benefits, meanwhile, rose by 61,000 to 2.84 million for the week ending Dec. 25, the most recent period for which that information is available. However, compared to last year, there's been improvement. A year ago, the figure stood at 3.30 million.

Separately, the percentage of credit card payments 30 or more days past due dipped to 4.26 percent in the third quarter, from 4.28 percent in the second quarter, the American Bankers Association reported Thursday.

However, the delinquency rate on a composite of other types of consumer loans, including auto loans and home equity loans, rose to 1.90 percent in the third quarter, the highest in a year.

"Consumer pocketbooks still felt the pinch of elevated gas prices, draining resources that would otherwise have been available to meet financial obligations," said James Chessen, the association's chief economist.

GENERAL PREDICTION DJI AVERAGES

The bubble is rising steadily. The DJI finished January Day 12 at 10,617.78, down about $5 from 10622.88 a week ago.

Sinking, sinking…

THE MARKET will fall for a while in January until the market absorbs the psychological shock of the somewhat depressed Christmas Season.

DON’T EXPECT ANYTHING HIGHER THIS YEAR.

THIS IS STILL GOOD: AS PREVIOUSLY REPORTED: “Propredictions” predicts a soft DJI around 11,000 during the first quarter of January 2005. IT LOOKS LIKE THIS IS PROBABLY ON TARGET FOR A FLUCTUATION IN THE MARKET. BUT IT WON’T LAST LONG. And be careful with their numbers, they tend to be in the right direction but they tend to be optimistically high.

AS OBSERVED DURING 2004: WATCH THIS VERY CAREFULLY – WAR IN THE MIDDLE EAST IS THE PRIMARY FACTOR DRIVING OIL UP IN PRICE AND ACCELERATING THE DECLINE IN THE DOLLAR. The dollar of course is a major factor. As the dollar drops AND the stock values remain constant, U.S. stocks will become suddenly cheaper for foreign investors and they may begin to convert to buy U.S. stocks. This also will firm up values when it occurs, but I have no idea where the conversion points are. This is all a complex equation which could go sideways at any moment. THE MAIN PROVISO IS AL QAEDA. When they strike in the U.S. again, they will trump all else.

MAIN OVER-RIDING STRATEGIC VARIABLE: The main weakness in the international economy is that THE BUSH ADMINISTRATION IS SO INCOMPETENT THAT NO INTERNATIONAL ACTOR KNOWS HOW TO BE RATIONAL AND MAKE REAL DECISIONS. EVERYTHING IS HEDGED AND HIDDEN. All news on the war fronts is terrible. Iraq recovery has essentially collapsed. Real war is heating up. The insurgents and terrorists now are just playing hide and seek in Iraq, the more the American Bull rushes them, the less energy it has to remain in the game. Bush’s support is crumbling and he couldn’t do a deal internationally if his life depended upon it.

BUT, WORLD CONFIDENCE MAY IMPROVE FOR A WHILE if a Shiite coalition can take power in Iraq through the elections and motivate Bush to substantially withdraw American troops.

EURO WATCH - DOLLAR VALUE FIRM AGAINST EURO BUT NOT THE YEN, IT WILL WEAKEN WITH RENEWED OIL PRICE INCREASES

The dollar closed today at 0.7545 per euro, about the same as last week which was at 0.7586 per euro. Pressures against the American Imperial Faction are still mounting and will slowly erode the dollar during 2005.

“As oil goes up, the dollar will tend also to go down against the Euro.”

PREDICTION CONFIRMED SO FAR: Don’t expect much drop for the remainder of the year. The dollar may actually gain a bit for a brief time, but not much and not for long.

Thus in general, expect a steady if slow creep of prices upward all through 2005, with faster relative increases for some basic commodities and imports to reflect rapidly rising international costs, which will still accelerate in response to the rise in energy costs this past six months.

MUST READ: “The Dollar Panics” in “The Coming Economic Collapse of 2006”, which lays out the dynamics of what is happening

LATEST OVERVIEW ON OIL: As of January 6, 2005

The high price points at the pump established last Fall look permanent. It does not look like retail prices will ever again be South of where they currently are. We are going to have a pretty vigorous STAGFLATION for 2005 and average wholesale prices are likely to continue an upward drift, somewhere in the range of 10% to 30%, with transitory peaks in the range of last year’s $55. Perhaps even higher, if the oil industry is disrupted by Al Qaeda or other terrorist groups.

HIGH PRICE PRESSURES CAN NO LONGER BE RESISTED BECAUSE ALL OF THE WORLD POLITICAL STRUGGLES ARE NOW POLARIZING AROUND THE STRUGGLE FOR OIL. Oil has become in the minds of all those seeking power as THE ONLY SOURCE OF POWER in the world today.

Associated Press

Oil Prices Shoot Above $45 Per Barrel

Thursday January 6, 5:01 pm ET

By Brad Foss, AP Business Writer

Oil Prices Shoot Up 5 Percent, Close Above $45 Per Barrel After an Early Spurt of Buying

Oil prices shot up 5 percent Thursday and closed above $45 a barrel after an early spurt of buying created momentum that forced investors anticipating lower prices to cover their bets.

Analysts said there was no single spark that got the rally going. Instead, they suggested that the move higher merely signals the persistent skittishness in the market, stemming from strong demand, tight supplies and fears about instability in Iraq, Saudi Arabia, Nigeria and other key producing nations.

"Not a lot has changed from when we were $10 a barrel higher than where we are now," said Tom Bentz, a broker at BNP Paribas Commodity Futures in New York.

"And heating oil inventories are still on the low side," he added. "At some point, the weather is going to get colder."

Light sweet crude for February delivery soared $2.17 to settle at $45.56 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. February heating oil futures surged 6.29 cents to $1.2813 per gallon, while February gasoline ended 5.19 cents higher at $1.2229 a gallon.

In London, Brent crude for February delivery rose $2.34 to $42.85 per barrel on the International Petroleum Exchange.

"We have a great deal of investment funds that are trading crude oil right now, a lot of end users that are hedging in the market and producers in the Far East that are trading in crude," said James Cordier, president of Liberty Trading Group in St. Petersburg, Fla. "We get to where we're going a lot faster than we used to."

Cordier said there was considerable resistance for Nymex crude at the $44 a barrel level, but that once that was surpassed, prices moved higher very fast.

On Wednesday, oil prices fell after a U.S. government report showed larger-than-expected increases in winter fuel supplies, sending heating oil prices lower too.

The U.S. Energy Department's statistical arm reported Wednesday that supplies of distillate fuel, which include heating oil and diesel, grew by 2 million barrels last week to 121.1 million barrels. The increase was much higher than expected, though it still leaves inventories 11 percent below year ago levels, according to the Energy Information Administration.

High-sulfur distillates used for heating oil increased by 1.2 million barrels to 50.1 million barrels, about 9 percent below year ago levels.

While oil prices are well below the late October high above $55 a barrel, traders remain wary about tight heating oil supplies in the United States and about possible supply disruptions in Iraq and terrorist activity in Saudi Arabia, the world's top supplier of crude oil.

Markets were rattled throughout 2004 by stronger-than-expected demand and persistent supply fears and unrest in key producers Saudi Arabia, Russia, Venezuela, Nigeria and Iraq.

U.S. and Norwegian producers have also been working to restore production caused by leaks and storms.

Associated Press Writer Christopher Bodeen in Singapore contributed to this report.

SURVIVAL WATCH