PHOENIX FIVE EARTH CHANGES BULLETIN

Please Note: This Bulletin is conceived as a System. It is still in an early stage of evolution. We intend to progressively link into this synopsis system all of the major news feeds of Planet Earth which articulate aspects of the profound historical Change In The Earth which is underway.

Earth Changes Bulletin Update As Of February 9 2005

You have heard of the Weather Report? Here exclusively is this week’s "Earth Report" - a short review of the "big picture" about how the dynamic changes in the Sun and the Earth are effecting our lives more and more intensely, with the latest prognostications and predictions for weathermen, farmers, investors, businessmen, and every man.

NEW LINK FOR THE NEW Earth Changes Bulletin Almanac & Updates Archive. USE THIS NEW HOME PAGE TO ACCESS THE ARCHIVES OF WEEKLY UPDATES, SPECIAL REPORTS, AND THE NEW ALMANAC.

You may click here for the full text of the Earth Changes Bulletin Update for this week, or use this URL

http://www.michaelmandeville.com/earthmonitor/ecbulletins/2005/ecb_Feb_9_05.htm

THE CHINESE NEW YEAR: "Last night's new moon was the second new moon of winter and, today, a billion people are celebrating. Why? Because the second New Moon of Winter marks the Chinese New Year. According to the Chinese Calendar, today is the first day of the Year of the Rooster." (from NASA). WHAT NASA DIDN'T TELL YOU: According to the earliest renditions of the Chinese legends, the Chinese New Year is a celebration of joy marking the return to an annual cycle and stability in the Earth after a terrible time during which the Pillars of Heaven collapsed, the Heavens fell to one side, and great fires, floods, and earthquakes overwhelmed the people. The "winged" Dragon (which is suspiciously reminiscent of the Feathered Serpent of the Central American peoples and the Benu or Phoenix of the Egyptians) represents the force in the Earth which overcame the chaos. This Chinese "Dragon" legend still accurately describes the angle of the last shifting of the poles and its approximately distance. Dancing with the "Dragon" through the firecrackers and noisemakers represents the last great shifting of the Earth and the return to stability. Now you know why the "Dragon" is used in the celebrations. Such is the power of an oral tradition recording a memory and transmitting it though living practice – 12,500 years of oral memory still at our service. Stunning, isn't it?

Continue To Maintain Extreme Vigilance!!!

EXTREME VIGILENCE IS HIGHLY RECOMMENDED IN ALL SEISMIC ZONES DURING

NEW MOON PERIGEE SYZYGY FEB 5-10

CONTINUE EXCEPTIONAL VIGILENCE IN ACTIVE SEISMIC ZONES THROUGH TO THE END OF MARCH 2005: Nearly all psychic and avocational quake predictors believe that additional major tectonic activity is about to occur during the next few weeks. The danger period probably extends through to the end of March 2005.

LENGTHY NEW MATERIAL JUST POSTED
UPDATE PREDICTIONS FOR 2005 – 2012
"The Imperial Blowback & The Changes In The Earth"

SOME SECTIONS ARE NOW POSTED

I am still working diligently on this material which succinctly outlines predictions for the period 2005 – 2012. This will serve as the basis of two one day seminars during April, one in Rome, another in Milan, Italy.

LATER, PERHAPS BY MID MARCH: Beyond this I am also working on the period of what the Q’ero call the Pachacuti and the Hopi call the "Great Purification" (also known as the "Time of Troubles" or "The Tribulations"). I have just consumed four books and many iway articles and websites the past few weeks to prepare for this. For a variety of reasons, the final keys for putting together the final plot line of the Fourth Age and the most probable key signals are now being brought forward into my consciousness in a way which will allow me to describe them clearly and specifically to the world. Due to many issues, the greater bulk of this material shall not be openly available directly on the internet. Access to most of the predictions will be made available through paid annual subscriptions. Because of the strategic seriousness of some of the predictions, some I will only make available through mouth and ear in private seminars. I will begin to advise of this material through the EC Bulletins and through Alex Merklinger’s radio program

EACH WEDNESDAY - Alex Merklinger Radio at Mysteries Of The Mind

7 PM Mountain Time

FOR THIS YEAR OF THE GATHERING EMERGENCE:

On the geophysical front, at the current time activity at the solar level of our vast Vortex is increasing and this trend should continue for at least several days. SOLAR activity has increased modestly during the past several days and is still fritzy as of this date. The Sunspot Count is apparently plateued at 60 but not for long because the Flux is still rising today at 109. More ominous, the Magnetic A Index peaked to 33 yesterday and is 20 today, quite high by normal standards. This will create unusual effects in the atmosphere, the weather, radio communications, animal behavior, psychic behavior, etc. For unknown reasons, the Jet Stream is still very kinky against North America's West Coast and is pouring a lot of rain into the Southwestern U.S. Spring flowers are blooming there but Winter remains entrenched in most of the Northern Hemisphere. Tectonic activity is still in upsurge though the New Moon Perigee quakes have yet to hit. Expect same during the next 36 hours even as volcanism continues to accelerate. Volcanism clearly increased again this past seven days but quake activity is depressed and random. The Philippine Plate was clearly very active and the West Coast of South America was also very active, reflecting the activity in the Philippine Plate. The Carib Plate remained a hot spot, as did the Nicobars, the Andamans, the Fiji's, and Japan. Five shape-shifter quakes struck in the Great Rift of the Earth at modest 4.9-5.1 magnitudes. The movement of the Earth's crust relative to the North Spin Axis – Chandler's Wobble – still is not normalizing much at the moment – this is mostly likely a real phase-shift in Chandler's Wobble. This will probably stimulate a progression of shapeshifting movements of the tectonic plates. Continue to watch the tea leaves of sudden tectonic rupture on the North American West Coast, everyone is nervous about it. Maintain exceptional vigilance on the Western coasts of the Americas. And watch the volcanoes – a major increase in world volcanism continues to increase and this activity will continue to rise worldwide during the next six months. Many surprises may be in store for this year.

On the geopolitical front, it is still too close to call, but the strategic stalemate may have been broken by the changing leadership in the Palestinian Authority and in Iraq. The insurgency has terminally isolated itself, Al Qaeda has clearly lost its Big Mo, and the Imperial Faction has clearly come to enough of its senses to realize that it was risking a nearly complete isolation of the U.S. if it pressed ahead with bellicose actions against Iran. While the ugly brutalities continue in Iraq, and even as the reports of U.S. prisoner crimes and imperial thuggery continue to pile up in the Post Master's "Dead Letter" desk, and even if Bush continues to play his Lone Ranger tough cop act with mealy-mouthed threats, history may be taking another sudden major turn. If the vote in Iraq count is honestly computed, for which many are waiting with crossed fingers, and if the Shi'a coalition can achieve a viable set of internal agreements with itself and the Kurds, and if the CIA will butt out, the new national assembly may generate the consensus necessary to overcome both the insurgency and the American intrusion. If so, and then finally IF the Shi'a undertake a complete cooption of Iraq with a Full Employment program financed by the oil, Iraq will form up a new stable regime, somewhat Democratic, somewhat authoritarian, somewhat like Iran, and allow the U.S. to be OUT of there in about one year. But that is a lot of ifs and I advise NOT holding your breath.

Go to detailed synopsis…

EACH WEDNESDAY - Alex Merklinger Radio at Mysteries Of The Mind

7 PM Mountain Time

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NOTES

Grayed items are not yet operational

Program Thesis:

What are we trying to do with the Earth Changes Bulletin?

Most news media do not handle technical and scientific subjects like geology and earth sciences very well. They don't understand the causes and effects of activities in the Sun and Earth. Accordingly, they often do not understand if, when, how, why to report earthquakes, volcanic activity, global warming effects The treatment often sounds absent-minded, poorly qualified, and frequently contains various technical errors. Seldom is the treatment entertaining and genuinely educational.

Based on new scientific principles which have emerged during the past thirty years, many of the dynamic activities of the Sun and Earth can be linked together to see how a range of effects are linked together. This makes it possible to paint "the big picture" into a perspective which explains many diverse events and processes, especially climate and weather patterns such as global warming and El Nino. From the "big picture", long range predictions can be made for weeks and even months ahead. The result is sophisticated cutting-edge information which is objective, balanced, astute, relevant, and can be easily seen and appreciated by lay audiences. The perspective is generally global, seldom parochial. For the framework of concepts, terms, and current conditions which are used or described in the these Bulletins, see the Earth Changes 2003 Almanac Calendar.

To see the internet resources which are used to prepare this Update, take a look at the Earth Monitor front page - http://www.michaelmandeville.com/earthmonitor/

The Bulletin is written in Arizona (UTC +8 hours) so any relative references, such as "Today", or "Tomorrow", or "Yesterday" should generally to taken to refer to the day spans as experienced in Western North America.

PREVIOUS
WEEKLY

UPDATES

Nov 24 not available as of this date

COMING MID MARCH IN WEEKLY INSTALLMENTS:

UPDATE PREDICTIONS FOR 2005 – 2012 and through "The Tribulations"

go to the Earth Changes Almanac

A systematic synopsis is being assembled which succinctly outlines predictions for the period 2005 – 2012 and through the period of what the Q’ero call the Pachacuti and the Hopi call the "Great Purification" (also known as the "Time of Troubles" or "The Tribulations". This outline will update the predictions in "The Coming Economic Collapse of 2006" and the "Return of the Phoenix", mainly by confirming the general plot line and by adding more details which carry the predictions well beyond 2006-2008.

COMING IN APRIL…

Mandeville will be conducting a book tour in Italy from April 5-16 for Macro Edizioni, a major Italian publisher who has translated the Coming Economic Collapse of 2006 into Italian. Mandeville will be in several cities. In addition, he will conduct a full day seminar in Rome and Milan on the coming Changes In The Earth.

SPONSORING:

THE COMING ECONOMIC COLLAPSE OF 2006, which puts today, tomorrow, and the trends together into the Cayce 25 year economic cycle which will "bottom" in 2006/2007. Click here to download

THIS BOOK STILL COOKS AND IT WILL COOK THE POLITICIANS AND THE ECONOMY ALL THE WAY THROUGH TO 2008: This synthesis is far ahead of the daily digests in all halls of the internet media: so far (since May 2003) the track record on this set of predictions for 2003-2008 is running 100 per cent. If you have not purchased this book, you will remain ignorant of the main dynamics which are rapidly changing everything.

LATEST UPDATE NOTE AS OF FEBRUARY 2, 2005: Ditto all conditions. ONLY MORE SO.

LATEST UPDATE NOTE AS OF JANUARY 6, 2005: On track, as discussed in previous Bulletins. A new quick summary is provided below in the Economy section.

LATEST UPDATE NOTE AS OF DECEMBER 22, 2004: No surprises, everything on track as predicted…conditions remain about the same through to the first week of January – things will then begin to break suddenly…into a fast and furiously changing year. The tide will clearly turn during 2005 on many fronts, collectively marking the end of the American Age and a progressive waning of American stature and prosperity..

LATEST UPDATE NOTE AS OF NOVEMBER 17, 2004:

As per stated below, the bubble is re-inflating for a few more weeks or even months if Al Qaeda does not attack. Oil prices are dropping as stocks and equities firm up and the economy continues expansion with the expectation that American Imperialism will continue (unfortunately) to drive international events during 2005. BEWARE SUDDEN REVERSALS WHEN ALQAEDA STRIKES. BEWARE THE EMERGING SUPER-COALITION IN EURASIA WHICH WILL PROGRESSIVELY UNDERCUT THE AMERICAN DOLLAR DURING 2005, GENERALLY IN A MEASURED WAY WHICH AVOIDS SUDDEN PANIC. This is not a hostile action, it is a sensible reaction of the world to the vast over-reach of America’s Imperial Pretenders. This will produce a strong trend of basic price inflation in the U.S. as basic material commodity prices and the cost of imported goods continue to rise. The world WILL solve the Balance of Payments problem, mainly by raising the dollar costs of imports beyond the means of Americans to purchase them.

ALL DATES AND TIMES USED IN THE EARTH CHANGES BULLETIN ARE NOW UTC = Universal Time Constant, previously known as Greenwich Mean Time.

HOUSEKEEPING

MANDEVILLE IS ON THE RADIO EVERY WEDNESDAY WITH

Alex Merklinger (Millennium Radio) show at 7 PM Arizona Time (6 PM Pacific Time). Regular Weekly Update For The Earth Changes Bulletin. To find Iway archives and stations, see Millennium Radio Network.

WE ARE STILL IN AN AWKWARD STAGE WITH THE BULLETINS. MUCH PROGRESS HAS BEEN MADE IN COMPLETELY REDEFINING THE BULLETIN, MONITOR, ALMANAC, AND WEBSITE, BUT SO FAR IT IS ALL INVISIBLE. THE NEW SCHEMA WILL BE INTRODUCED DURING FEBRUARY AND MARCH

We are halfway into a process which will combine an almanac structure with the weekly updates. I intend a three tier Bulletin/Almanac Archive: a weekly newsletter which is shorter than present, an archive of the Weekly Updates in web pages, and a deeper core structure which is like an Almanac, encompassing years, major references, explanations of all the details, and outlines for many years in advance of various predictions and concerns. To this core we will link the Updates and around the entire business we will add a variety of news feeds and tightly focused discussion forums. From these news feeds, some items in summary form will appear in the Updates. It will take a couple of months yet to shape this up to where I will truly want it to be.

Today you can finally access an update of the past year's bulletins and the beginning of an annual forecast for 2005. Click here for the new access point to the current new home page for the Earth Changes Bulletin Almanac & Archive

Begin Synopsis

As stated in the "Coming Economic Collapse of 2006", the nature of human politics reflects the communication abilities of the human species. As we transform the media, as we have been on the Iway, we will transform human politics and the entire Earth. Making the way for the New Earth is operationally equivalent to making a new Media on the Iway. Not that that is all that there is to it. Not by a long shot…but IT IS one of the essentials we need to dissolve the blockages and dance around the tyrannies.

SPIRITUAL WATCH

How to converge and express the spirit of mass transformation into manifestation, HOW to be, IS the question. How to do is the praxis of the time. Examining this question, probing it, is the chief trendline of this year.

BREAKING NEWS:

No new items for this week.

FOR WINTER 2005:

The surge in solar activity the last few days has had a major impact on a great number of people who meditate. Interior channels have energized and nearly everyone I talk to relays similar experiences of new channels or access to new awareness of imagery or feelings or knowledge opening up. A step-function in personal maturity has been experienced, along with increased personal vibrancy. As it were, a real "personal inauguration" seems at hand. It is a good time to focus on the emerging Medicine Wheel of the Earth and our energetic interconnection within Indra's Net. It is an excellent time to enhance the power of inner visualization and connection. Thanks to Adam for bringing this back into our consciousness. Try this visualization:.

Indra's Net: (as described in the ancient Sanskrit texts)

There is an endless net of threads throughout the universe.

The horizontal threads are in space.

The vertical threads are in time.

At every crossing of threads there is an individual.

And every individual is a crystal bead.

The great light of absolute being illuminates and penetrates every crystal being.

And every crystal being reflects not only the light from every other crystal in the net,

But also every reflection of every reflection throughout the universe.

MWM: Try that on for visualizing the All In All we call God. Talk about opening up channels….

Mayan Elders have delivered an urgent message: the major Earth Changes of the "Pachacuti" or "Purification" period have begun with the rupture of the Indo-Trench. They expect increasing seismic activity and major quakes of a similar nature to occur through the next several months.

FOR 2005:

Some major keywords for 2005 are:

"Gathering", most especially in the sense of gathering of forces;

"Being", as in the sense of fully participating in the realization and practice of what we dare to hope we are becoming;

"Accepting"; negatively as in eating the "Karmic Blowback" (the American People are going to take an immense amount of Karmic Blowback for the Tragedy in Iraq); positively as in receiving supportive affirmation for long-suffering spiritual efforts and intentions

"Emerging", realization and experiencing of the becomings long sought, most especially as in bringing forth the new understandings, orientations, needs, and directions of purpose for a profoundly different world than is celebrated in the Mass Media.

In the positive dimension, around these keywords, many new phenomenon will emerge, especially in the forms of groups and individuals manifesting new activities.

NEXT SEVEN YEARS:

In the negative dimension, the coming "Karmic Blowback" is going to be terrible and shake the very roots of everything in North America from now through to 2012. But a great turning towards peace and a desire for equitable, personal connection to real community is underway in the hearts and minds of a great mass of humanity. This is the entire hope.

STAY FOCUSED ON HELPING THE EMERGENCE OF PEACE, JUSTICE, AND FREEDOM. DENY ALL MOVEMENT TOWARDS FASCISM. THE FASCISTS AND BIGOTS AMONG THE NATIONS ARE GOING TO DELIVER INCREASING QUANTITIES OF KARMIC BLOWBACK TO EACH OTHER. It will be terrible in the coming years, and in 2005 the U.S. will begin to tangibly feel PRECURSERS of the blowback. Nothing is going to "go right" for the North American Powers That Be this year – and it gets worse and worse as the year goes down.

I SUGGEST YOU "DUCK" AND KEEP PUTTING YOURSELF IN A DIFFERENT PLACE ALLTOGETHER – MENTALLY AND EMOTIONALLY AND POLITICALLY AND ECONOMICALLY, AND IF YOU ARE URBAN DEPENDENT, I HIGHLY RECOMMEND THAT YOU BEGIN TO FORM YOUR STRATEGY FOR PHYSICALLY DUCKING THE EMPIRE’S KARMIC BLOWBACK FOR THE PERIOD 2006-2012, ESPECIALLY IF YOU LIVE IN THE EAST COAST BUBBLE.

No-Eyes, the blind old first world prophet of the Rockies had it right 20 years ago, conditions are going to get increasing bad because of the karmic blowback and there is no end in sight until "the Phoenix screeches".

BREATH FREE. Let go of everything which is disturbed, distorted, or weird. Let go of everything which is forced, contrived, hidden, manipulative, and/or constrictive. Keep flowing with the rising tide of spiritual energies which are filling many thirsty souls. The old patterns are falling away. Transition continues. Embrace new relationships which are trying to form in your life if they are honest and straightforward and provide a new openness. Forget the fears of the unknown, embrace all that which lifts your life into the light of a greater understanding and relationship with the all.

SPIRITS EMERGING: CONFIRMING WHAT I PREDICTED LAST YEAR: "In a short while, some will come forth giving witness to a great energy which has come into their lives, literally, as if the hand of God was upon them. This is becoming more and more apparent and these words will have greater meaning by the end of the year."

Here is one. ADAM, an 18 year old healer in Vancouver, British Columbia, is beginning to be recognized and is causing more and more of a stir. He is quite possibly a great successor to the Edgar Cayce tradition. If you combine his group "work" with disciplined personal meditation, you have the keys to the full realization of gathering, being, and emergence this year. His two short books, which I had the opportunity to read over the year end holidays are well worth reading and he will tell you in his own words how to operationalize what I had written in this section last month:

Don’t react, go to center, get clear, release, and grieve…the Fourth Age is dying rapidly now… much more rapidly than we thought, its institutions and identities are beyond saving… let it go, let go, get to center…flow into God, let God flow into you…don’t speculate, don’t analyze, don’t react to the shtuff…clear…clean out the past four years…we are now free to grieve the death of everything we detested…let it go…let it go…let it die. As you re-center in God, find the realization that this is the final moment you have been waiting for to end your connections and involvements with the illusions and delusions of all that which has betrayed the divine within each and brought greed, war, and destruction over the Earth.

The destroyers belong to each other, this is now the final time of their fatal embrace. Let them love their wars…they have greatly desired the bitter wines of their hatreds and violence, they have lusted greatly for their Armageddon, and they shall have it.

The die has been cast with a thousand artifices and illusions. With the excellence of its manner of casting, God has delivered to you your own freedom from the delusions and spells of the Mass Sorcerers, indeed, from the entire age, if you will but realize it. Clear yourself and your life to find now the sense of movement and direction to separate your life from the dying culture which is putrefying all around you. There is no saving it…as Buckminster Fuller observed many decades ago, the old order is never saved, the new order merely grows up around it to eventually takes its place. So it will come to pass now in an intense period of vast change during the next twenty years.

The "Great Purification" predicted by the Hopi, Maya, Q’ero, and many others continues. How amazing that these ancient oral traditions could tune into last year and this one to advise us that this was a period of profound historical turning involving

The Great Purification

of the Earth? For additional discussion, see the commentary of May 19, 2004 and the commentary of June 16, 2004.

THE NEW BASIS IS GESTATING….

THE time to link the spiritual communities of the Earth. The Whole Earth. IT HAS BECOME URGENT TO LINK THE SPIRITUAL COMMUNITIES WITHIN A BROAD MOVEMENT WHICH PROVIDES NEW CURRENTS OF SPIRITUAL LEADERSHIP.

FOR THE MOST PART: Steady as she goes. A slow acceleration in the shifting of the poles has been underway for perhaps the past 100 years and the last three decades has shown an increase in the rate of acceleration. This has appeared to accelerate even more during the past decade.

POLAR MOTION

What is happening to the motion of the Earth. For the overall summary of the status of polar motion CLICK HERE. To see the current graphs of polar motion, CLICK HERE. Scroll down the page until you get to the black and white graphs with show the x and y coordinates of the North Spin Axis on two separate graphs.

BREAKING NEWS:

FOR A DETAILED DISCUSSION OF THE CURRENT "PHASE-SHIFTING" IN CHANDLER'S WOBBLE, GO TO THE NEW MATERIAL WHICH WILL APPEAR IN THE NEW Earth Changes Almanac

Basically, the news is as it was last week. The North Spin Axis is becoming increasingly anomalous and is signaling a significant instability in the mass spin balance of the Earth.

The North Spin Axis is STILL moving out of its normal 6.5 Chandler Wobble spiral track.

The anomaly is becoming larger. The "phase-shifting" of Chandler's Wobble during this coming X Wave MIN period will probably be as significant as the "phase-shifting" during 1998/99.

This aberrant motion is a slowly emerging anomaly which appears to be a continuation of aberrations which began in approximately September 2004. There is too much horizontal movement in the X plot which graphs the spiral motion track of the North Spin Axis in what is called Chandler's Wobble.

The Great Rupture of the Indo-Trench on Christmas 2004 caused a decided departure from what was already an aberrant track. The track has not returned to normal and it appears to be initiating what may best be described as a "phase shift" in the waveform of the motion of the North Spin Axis relative to the surface of the Earth.

During the past few days another round of daily shape shifter quakes in the Great Rift of the Earth has commenced, signaling that another acceleration in tectonic plate movement has begun..

The onset of this phase shift began in approximately September 2004 and was followed approximately 120 days later with the Christmas Day Great Rupture. Earlier "phase-shifts" of Chandler's Wobble during the 20th century also resulted in large Great Quakes and Ruptures.

Accordingly, it is fair to conclude that the Earth appears to have entered into a very dangerous "season" during which unusually destructive Earthquakes will likely be more frequent than normal.

CERTAIN CLUES ARE ALSO BEING GIVEN THROUGH MULTIPLE PSYCHIC SOURCES ABOUT BOTH FEBRUARY AND THE NEXT 75 DAYS.

The New Moon on FEBRUARY is very close to a Perigee moment and this Perigee is going to be about as close as the Moon ever gets to the surface of the Earth. The lifting forces on the Earth's tectonic plates will be very concentrated indeed Feb. 5-10.

Perigee 7-Feb 22:10 358563 km N-1d 0h

New 8-Feb 22:30

BE AWARE.

I RECOMMEND EXCEPTIONAL VIGILENCE AROUND THE EQUATORIAL ZONE, ESP IN THE CARIB PLATE, THE BAJA PLATE, THE WESTERN COASTS OF THE AMERICAS, FROM ECUADOR THROUGH ALASKA, AND IN THE CENTRAL MEDITERREAN

BACKGROUND INFORMATION

No change from last week

For an excellent timely discussion of mass instability in the Earth during this current time, check out this very interesting article by William Hutton which is linked below. Long time subscribers to the EC Bulletins will recall that I began to report in 2000 that a major anomaly had appeared beginning in December 1998 in the track of Chandler's Wobble (of the North Spin Axis). Hutton, a retired professional geologist, has followed up this lead with this very interesting article which confirms the anomaly within his framework of thought.

This is especially pertinent because the current anomaly is beginning to smell a lot like the 1998-1999 anomaly, which "phase-shifted" the wobble to some degree. If the wobble once again phase-shifts as it approaches its MIN spiral track in the 6.5 year cycle, it will reveal a new recurring pattern in polar motion which has not been apparent since the 1936 phase shift which Edgar Cayce described. For one thing, it will reveal that the Earth will require an era of shape-shifting and accelerated wobble drift to regain a balanced distribution of mass (more mass needs to be shoved by centrifugal spin energy towards the equator).

Reflect on the idea that a phase-shift represents a shift in the time domain for a variable…suddenly it is in a new time connection with the flux of the universe. Now reflect for a moment that the primary description of the shifting of the poles which was offered by the oral tradition of the Inca is the name "Pachacuti", which they defined as a rip in the fabric of time…

This is ALL VERY PERTINENT as well because it tends to corroborate the "feeling" of the tripwires among psychics and shamen and avant garde researchers that an acceleration is occurring in Earth Changes right now and that many more major quakes are to be expected during the coming months. As you will see in Hutton's discussion, the 1998 incident was followed by some historical quakes.

for background information, click here

POSSIBLE POLE-SHIFT PRECURSOR FOUND!

Two Scientists Have Detected A Large-Scale Redistribution Of Mass Within The Earth System, Beginning in 1998!

Introduction

The Hutton Commentaries (THC) has been saying from the beginning that a shift in the poles of Earth's rotational axis can only be caused by a significant shift of mass somewhere within our planet. Now, two scientists studying data on Earth's gravity field have found evidence of just such a mass shift that began in 1998. This is the year in which Cayce readings 3976-15 and 378-16 said that a forty-year-long period, from 1958-1998, marking the beginning of predicted Earth changes would come to an end. Then, in 1998 and beyond there would be "the changes wrought in the upheavals and the shifting of the poles."

We present evidence here that the "upheavals" may have begun in the inner Earth between 1998 and 2002, where the liquid outer core meets the overlying plastic mantle. This is the core-mantle boundary, or CMB. Upheavals along the CMB may have been detected by means of precision satellite-ranging measurements conducted since 1979. Interpretations of the voluminous measurements between 1979 and 2002 have been published by two scientists, Christopher Cox and Benjamin Chao, in the August 2 issue of Science magazine (p. 832). Here
follows their reasoning and their conclusions.

much more here with excellent visual graphics:

Hutton Commentaries On 1998 Polar Motion Anomaly

RECENT

The "jiggle" in the polar motion wobble produced by the 9.2 Indo-Trench quake can be clearly seen on the spiral wobble track.

It is as if two vectors at 90 degrees to each other are contending with each other over which force will move the Earth’s crust the most, and thus move the location of the North Spin Axis in one direction or another.

Since this anomaly is directly synchronous with the Great Rupture of the Indo-Trench, I am deeply suspicious that the events are directly related (the slightly erratic wobble causing the rupture, the rebound of which shifts the wobble into an even more erratic motion).

The specific causes are unknown (the general cause is simple: an accumulating imbalance in the distribution of the mass of the Earth on which centrifugal force acts to push excess mass towards the Equator).

The appearances of the graphs of polar motion suggest that this is an "emerging" and accelerating instability which has been increasing in tempo for at least the past 20 years. (Actually this is an illusion, it is the crust of the Earth which is wobbling and moving as centrifugal force attempts to push accumulating extra mass (such as polar ice pack) towards the equator).

This acceleration in the rate of motion suggests the there is indeed a "Change In The Earth", as long prophesied, beginning to happen right before our eyes and under our feet.

As many no doubt have been reading, many prophetic "tripwires" among psychics and First World Medicine Wheel elders are clearly interpreting current Earth events as signals and signs and effects of the "Pachacuti", "Great Purification", or "Tribulation" which precedes the final avalanche of the crust (shifting of the poles, Ragnarok, Judgment Day, etc.).

ANATOMY OF THE 2004 GREAT RUPTURE OF THE INDO-TRENCH

The outline of the wobble track on the map grid of the world seems to show more clearly every week that the spiraling motion of the North Spin Axis has indeed, as I have suspected for weeks, accelerated its rate of drift. More, it is showing considerable instability in moving through its spiraling track.

Polar motion returned to its spiral track and is currently spiraling tightly inward. OOPS, that was a couple of weeks ago. Now it is very lazily actually drifting away from its X Min track (when the wobble is the smallest approximately every seven years).

It is also having a bad hair month – err, year. Its motion seems more unstable during this past three months and does not appear to be "forming up" in a track appropriate to its last six months of motion. It currently appears to be "spreading" out into a wider spiral rather than it typical.

Take a look at the x plot chart and you will see the beginning of the new outward, horizontal motion on the wave track.

What is it doing? It is always hard to generalize about these motions but I believe we are currently seeing the "blowback" or "feedback" energy of the rupturing of the Earth’s crust in the Indo-Trench.

I believe that the poles are now shifting (have been for the past few years) their "average" location more rapidly than during the previous century. This accelerated drift is probably due to some mass imbalance in the Earth’s crust. This imbalance is being acted upon by centrifugal motion of the Earth’s spin, which is changing the focal point of the "wobble" in the spin.

Then, about 90 days ago, apparently the drift track of the wobble hit a vector of mass resistance. This resistance was strong enough to flatten the peak of its normal sine-wave spiraling motion in what is called the X plot of polar motion. This plot is maintained by international cooperation to keep tabs on the exact location of the North Spin Axis from day to day.

Apparently, the normal smooth motion of the Earth’s crust dipping over the theoretical average location of the North Spin Axis toward the Pacific and then back again down was arrested and cut off. The entire Crust of the Earth was arrested in its NORMAL motion. The North Spin Axis was pulled back down into the Atlantic Hemisphere, down towards England earlier and more rapidly than it should have.

Then the normal motion seemed to begin to assert itself and the spiral began to turn inward, as it should be doing at this time, closing toward the X Min point where the wobble will be at its smallest size of its seven year cycle.

I believe this abnormal track of the wobble is one of the primary causes of the Great Rupture in the Indo-Trench. The connection and time parallelism between these two relatively abnormal events is just too close to ignore as mere coincidence.

And…the parallelism gets better. Suddenly the motion of the North Spin Axis began to flare out again this past few days, apparently shifting the focal point for the entire wobble of the North Spin Axis.

I do not have enough of the numbers of actual polar motion (agreed upon and formally reported) to be mathematically precise about this. The IERS generally cogitates on what it will advance as the real numbers to make sure it corresponds will all reports. It will be another month or so until enough real numbers are available on table form to clearly see what may have been the feedback or blowback effect. However, the IERS X plot is not nearly so shy and currently shows exactly what I am talking about. The current, apparent out-flaring "jiggle" in the X plot has probably been created by the "ringing" or oscillation of the Earth created by the Christmas Rupture of the Indo-Trench.

FOR 2005:

In general, the Wobble Track is showing continued tightening of the Chandler’s Wobble Spiral, as should be at this time in its 7 year Wobble Cycle, and the track seems to be conforming with a continued acceleration in the rate of drift, but this can be by no means certain until this 7 year cycle is over. In about two years we will be able to locate the minimum spiral of motion and then look for the average 7 year "location" of this past seven years for comparison with previous cycles.

NEXT SEVEN YEARS:

KEEP IN MIND THAT THIS WATCH HAS BEEN SET TO LOOK EXACTLY FOR THIS TYPE OF DEPARTURE OF THE EARTH FROM ITS PREVIOUS SPIRALING WOBBLE TRACKS. THESE MOTIONS DURING THE PAST 90 DAYS CONFIRMS THE THESIS OF VORTEX TECTONICS AND THE DEDUCTION FOR THE PROJECTED AVALANCHE OF THE CRUST WHICH WAS CALCULATED IN THE "RETURN OF THE PHOENIX".

(The spiral track takes nearly seven years to define a complete wobble cycle and it takes the entire cycle to be able to calculate the average location of the North Spin Axis in order to compare it against other "average locations" in the previous axis cycles. From this, a straight line track of the "average locations" can be computed and the acceleration in the rate of motion of the "shift" can be defined I believe at the current time that this will show a specific "jump" this past year, a micro "pole shift". Very micro.)

REFERENCE:

http://maia.usno.navy.mil/xplot2.gif

http://maia.usno.navy.mil/yplot2.gif

MAGNETIC POLES – SHIFTING

What is happening to the magnetic fields of the Earth. No real change during the past year: a magnetic pole shift is not something to be very concerned about within this decade at least.

EXCELLENT UPDATING BACKGROUNDER:

Focus On Our Magnetic Planet

Paris, France (ESA) Jan 25, 2005

http://www.terradaily.com/news/earth-magnetic-05b.html

"Mission controllers cross their fingers whenever the Sun is stormy and their spacecraft have to fly over the South Atlantic. There, even satellites in low orbits suffer many hits by atomic bullets from the Sun.

Troublesome faults occur in electronic systems and astronauts see flashes in their eyes. The Earth's magnetic field, which shields our planet against charged atomic particles coming from outer space, is curiously weak in that region.

The South Atlantic Anomaly, as the experts call it, is one pressing reason why they are intensifying their exploration of the Earth's magnetism. Denmark's Orsted satellite, launched in 1999, is dedicated to magnetic research, whilst Germany's CHAMP mission (2000) measures both magnetism and gravity.

These satellites show that the danger zone for satellites over Brazil and the South Atlantic is growing wider towards the southern Indian Ocean.

The Earth's magnetic field is becoming generally weaker at an astonishing rate. When a French-Danish team compared Orsted's results for 2000 with those from an American satellite, Magsat, 20 years earlier, the decline in the field's strength suggested that it might disappear completely in a thousand years or so.

The experts wonder if our planet is preparing to swap its north and south magnetic poles around, as it has often done before during the Earth's long history.

These and other mysteries about our magnetic planet will get the closer attention they deserve, in ESA's forthcoming Swarm project. Three satellites will work together to measure the magnetic field and its variations far more accurately than ever before. [...]

Separating the different sources of magnetism

Ordinary magnetic compasses obey the main magnetic field, produced by electric currents in the Earth's core of molten iron. But in magnetic storms, compass needles wander.

Since the 19th Century scientists have linked these storms to eruptions on the Sun. Many space ventures, recently including the ESA-NASA SOHO spacecraft and ESA's four-satellite Cluster mission, have helped to clarify the solar connection.

We live in a protective bubble in space called the magnetosphere. At its boundary, gusts in a non-stop solar wind of atomic particles battle with the Earth's magnetism.

As a result, events in outer space make a continual but highly variable contribution to the magnetic field. So do electric currents in the ionosphere, the zone of free electrons and charged air molecules high in the atmosphere that's best known for reflecting radio signals.

Other, much weaker patterns are overlaid on the global picture. In the Earth's crust, many rocks have built-in magnetism that remembers the direction of the main magnetic field when they formed.

This affects the field measured locally. By its subtle east-west comparisons Swarm will picture the magnetic field of the crust with unprecedented clarity. And even ocean water generates electric currents as it move in the main field, so that the ebb and flow of the tides have a slight magnetic effect.

As gauged by the satellites, the main field is roughly 6,000 times stronger than the rock magnetism of the ocean floor, and 30,000 times greater than the influence of the oceanic tides.

Only with delicate measurements by satellite constellations, supported by ground stations, ships and aircraft carrying magnetic instruments, can scientists sort out all the patterns of magnetism from the different sources.

The most careful analyses reveal yet another effect. Magnetic variations drive electric currents in the mantle, the main region between the core and the crust. These in turn cause further magnetic changes, from which scientists can estimate the electrical conductivity of the mantle. This provides a check on the temperature of the material hidden deep in the Earth's interior.

"What excites us is the huge scope of what we can study even with quite small satellites," comments Nils Olsen of the Danish National Space Center in Copenhagen, who analyses Orsted's results while he helps to plan Swarm.

"By making magnetic measurements in space we get new information about the Earth, from the molten core deep under our feet, through the mantle, to the crust on which we live. And then we go on upwards into the upper atmosphere, through the planet's local space environment, and all the way to the Sun itself, which is the source of daily magnetic disturbances."

Practical benefits

Solar storms can be fatal for satellites, and not only on account of radiation damage. The atmosphere inflates and low-orbiting spacecraft run into unexpected air resistance.

Experts used to think it was just a matter of the air being heated by particles and electric currents in the regions around the poles, where auroras occur.

Now a sensitive French-built accelerometer on the German CHAMP satellite has revealed heating by intense currents where the solar wind pushes towards the magnetic poles in daytime. The three Swarm satellites will investigate this new effect with accelerometers of their own.

Swarm's operational lifetime, 2009-13, will coincide with the next expected peak of storminess on the Sun. Immediate practical benefits will centre on Swarm's general monitoring of space weather, and the solar events affecting not just spacecraft and astronauts but technological systems on the ground as well.

Magnetic storms can damage power systems and pipelines, whilst the changes in the magnetic field can mislead any navigational systems that use magnetic compasses. These include compasses operating underground to guide the drills used to find and recover oil.

For scientists, the biggest benefit of Swarm is that high-quality magnetic measurements provide a new way of 'x-raying' the hidden interior of planet. Earthquake waves and variations in the strength of gravity already provide a picture of the hot core, the rocky mantle that surrounds it, and the ever-active crust. But the picture is not yet clear enough for scientists to agree how the internal machinery of the planet really works.

"Magnetic measurements give a fresh point of view on the Earth's interior," says Roger Haagmans, who is responsible for solid-Earth science in ESA's Earth Observation programme.

"And Swarm will also investigate the puzzling changes in the Earth's core that are responsible for the present weakening of the magnetic field. That's already a matter of practical concern for many satellite operators. With a better idea of the reasons, we may know what to expect in the busy decades of spaceflight that we have ahead of us."

Asteroids

As of June 04,

NASA’S

ESTIMATE:

"Potentially Hazardous Asteroids (PHAs) are space rocks larger than approximately 100m that can come closer to Earth than 0.05 AU. None of the known PHAs (asteroids) are on a collision course with our planet, although astronomers are finding new ones all the time."

PLANETS & ALIGNMENTS
(all time coordinates here and elsewhere are in UTC unless otherwise noted, dates for planetary alignments are derived from Home Planet Software using PC graphics, due to limitations of software and graphics display, actual timing may be off as much as three days, for scientific work, use a professional ephemeris for exact dates). For background and the current information on planetary alignments go to the Earth Changes Almanac Calendar. The Almanac lays out the planets and the lunar phases for entire year in advance to allow you to find the best and worst periods of weather, earthquake activity, ethereal "lunar" influences, etc.

Daily Planet – click here for sheer artistic pleasure

Every day John Walker’s (Home Planet Software) computer creates a new image of hypothetical habitable planet, just one every day for the estimated 2 billion potential habitable planets in our Galaxy, which the Egyptians more or less named Nun, a mother Goddess from which all life flows. Euro people nursery tales converted the name into the Milky Way. http://www.fourmilab.ch/terranova/terranovag.html

Moon Perigee/Apogee/Phase Data - click here to be always up to date

Earth/Moon Viewer by John Walker
http://www.fourmilab.ch/earthview/pacalc.html

Daily Solar System – click here to view Planet Alignments

The Home Planet software computes in real time the exact relative positions of the planets. Go here to view today’s image of the solar system as seen from a heliocentric view (the sun in the center, you looking at the entire solar system as if it were a big pancake. You can set any date and time. You should generally ask the form to give you the "equal orbits" view so you can see all the planets.

http://www.fourmilab.ch/cgi-bin/uncgi/Solar

FOR AN ALMANAC SYTLE SUMMARY FORECAST OF 2005 ALIGNMENTS, SUNSPOT PEAKS, WEATHER IMPACTS, AND HUMAN MOOD SHIFTS (through to Summer at this point)

AND a general discussion of how all this works and why this is worth doing, click here for the Earth Changes Almanac.

TODAY’S MOON

We are in Lunation #10165 and we are now 1 day past the New Moon of February 8. As of February Day 9, the Moon this day is now in its South Node (orbiting South of the Equator). It is now approximately 368,350 KM from the Earth. It is 1% of the Full Moon (visibility or phase) now already waxing toward the Full Moon of February 24.

LUNAR PERIGEE/APOGEE/PHASE TABLE FOR 2005

Event Day UTC Distance Days +/- Phase

New	10-Jan	12:04
Perigee	10-Jan	10:08	356571 km	N- 1h
Apogee	23-Jan	18:55	406442 km	F-1d15h
Full	25-Jan	10:33
Perigee	7-Feb	22:10	358563 km	N-1d 0h
New	8-Feb	22:30
Apogee	20-Feb	5:00	405805 km	F-3d23h
Full	24-Feb	4:55
Perigee	8-Mar	3:43	363234 km	N-2d 5h
New	10-Mar	9:13
Apogee	19-Mar	22:55	404847 km	F-5d22h
Full	25-Mar	21:01
Perigee	4-Apr	11:11	368490 km	N-4d 9h
New	8-Apr	20:35
Apogee	16-Apr	18:42	404302 km	F-7d15h
Full	24-Apr	10:09
Perigee	29-Apr	10:00	369028 km	F+4d23h
New	8-May	8:49
Apogee	14-May	13:42	404600 km	N+6d 4h
Full	23-May	20:21
Perigee	26-May	10:44	364240 km	F+2d14h
New	6-Jun	21:58
Apogee	11-Jun	6:13	405505 km	N+4d 8h
Full	22-Jun	4:16
Perigee	23-Jun	11:50	359674 km	F+1d 7h
New	6-Jul	12:05
Apogee	8-Jul	17:40	406362 km	N+2d 5h
Full	21-Jul	11:03
Perigee	21-Jul	19:46	357159 km	F+ 8h
Apogee	4-Aug	21:50	406629 km	N- 5h
New	5-Aug	3:06
Full	19-Aug	17:55
Perigee	19-Aug	5:33	357395 km	F- 12h
Apogee	1-Sep	2:36	406209 km	N-2d16h
New	3-Sep	18:46
Perigee	16-Sep	13:59	360405 km	F-1d12h
Full	18-Sep	2:02
Apogee	28-Sep	15:21	405306 km	N-4d19h
New	3-Oct	10:28
Perigee	14-Oct	13:51	365449 km	F-2d22h
Full	17-Oct	12:14
Apogee	26-Oct	9:36	404492 km	N-6d15h
New	2-Nov	1:24
Perigee	10-Nov	0:16	370013 km	F-6d 0h
Full	16-Nov	0:57
Apogee	23-Nov	6:19	404370 km	F+7d 5h
New	1-Dec	15:00
Perigee	5-Dec	4:33	367364 km	N+3d13h
Full	15-Dec	16:16
Apogee	21-Dec	2:50	405013 km	F+5d10h
New	31-Dec	3:12
Full	14-Jan	9:48

SEISMIC SYZYGY WINDOWS

QUALIFER: As we have seen at least three times this past year, most dramatically with the recent outbreak (Oct 23-26 2004) of large Earthquakes on the West side of Honshu Island (Japan), the Syzygy Window and Perigee principles DO NOT WORK CONSISTENTLY TO FORECAST AN INCREASE IN MAGNITUDE NOR FREQUENCY OF EARTHQUAKES. Using strictly an intuitive view of the past 12 months, the rate of accuracy is definitely larger than random but probably not larger than about 70% for any given area.

FOR THE YEAR 2005

The strongest syzygies (based on the combination of the Lunar Phase with Perigee) during the first half of the year should tend to be around the New Moon. The New Moon and Perigee combination was the strongest in January (occurring at virtually the same time on January 10) and the combination gradually gets weaker during the year and is at its lowest during the Summer.

THE NEXT NEW MOON PERIGEE SYZYGY IS FEB 5-10. THIS COULD BE A VERY DANGEROUS PERIOD. WE ARE IN THE MIDDLE OF A PHASE OF TIME WHICH HAS ALL THE TRIPWIRES BUZZING LIKE CRAZY. MAYBE IT IS JUST THE AFTERMATH OF THE INDO-TRENCH RUPTURE, MAYBE THE BUZZ IS A TRUE HARBINGER. IN THE FACE OF IGNORANCE, I WOULD NOT SHRUG MY SHOULDERS, I WOULD MAINTAIN EXCEPTIONAL VIGILENCE AT THIS TIME

The Full Moon is in the weakest syzygy (based on its distance from the Earth) during January and SUCCEEDING FULL MOONS will gradually become stronger, achieving their greatest pull on the Earth in June and July. (Cancer natives will have a maximum power Lunar whammy this year). Then it gradually gets weaker during the remainder of the year while the New Moon is slowly gaining again in strength.

HOWEVER, VERY IMPORTANT QUALIFICATION: This characterization of strong and weak syzygies does not necessarily mean you can predict the strength or frequency of earthquake activity by this means…the Earth is inconsistent and full of surprises to keep us all busy. Outbreaks of seismic activity can and do break out at any time. Large quakes tend to be in the syzygies, but they are not always…

AS PREVIOUSLY OBSERVED:

Jim Berkland, the originator of using syzygy to define the most active periods of seismic activity has a more complex method for computing dates and you may want to use his methods for greater precision. For details see the Syzygy website

Seismic/Tsunami Heads Up All Zones Pacific Rim of Fire & Indonesia

(ECB, February 9, 2005) There remains a substantial danger of additional major rupturing of the Earth's Crust and the creation of major Tsunami forces during the next 50 days. The 9.0 Great Rupture of Christmas 2004 in the Indo-Trench may be just a precursor toadditional major seismic, volcanic, and tsunami activity to occur within the next three to four weeks.

Given the constellation of many material forces and various human impressions, all peoples who live in the Pacific Rim of Fire and along the Australian Plate, especially those on the coasts, should at all times maintain a heightened sense of vigilance

MOST ESPECIALLY DURING THE NEXT 50 DAYS.

Right now is the time to work through your evacuation plan. It is a useful drill for anytime and it may be needed in somewhere during the next 90 days. If you fall into the target areas outlined above, DO IT NOW.

(Perigee = the Moon’s closest approach to the Earth during its monthly orbit which increases gravitational influence of the Moon by as much as 15%; Apogee = the Moon’s greatest distance from the Earth during its monthly orbit). (Berkland has a more complex formula for syzygy and his dates are often different.) For details see the Syzygy website.

THE NEXT PLANETARY ALIGNMENTS

For any "Home Planet Software" charts of the planets which are shown here or through URLS which are provided on this page, you can decipher which planet is which by counting the orbital rings if you do not know the signs which denote the planets. Mercury is 1 closest to the Sun, Venus is 2, Earth is 3, Mars is 4, Jupiter is 5, Saturn is 6, Uranus is 7, Neptune is 8, Pluto is 9, and both Planet X and Nibiru are bogus.

IMPORTANT NOTE ABOUT PLANETARY/SOLAR INFLUENCES: Solar Cycle 23 is rapidly approaching its minima period when solar activity and sunspot counts will be minimal most of the time. But even so, major sunspot peaks, big flares, coronal holes, and powerful CME’s will still occur once in a while, as the graphs of previous sunspot cycles definitely show. These flare-ups will be a lot less predictable than during the past four years, which makes the large flare-ups even more intrusive.

LIST OF ALIGNMENTS THROUGH TO JUNE 30, 2005

Today's Solar System: Click Here For Heliocentric Chart of Solar System as of January 19, 2005

NO SIGNIFICANT ALIGNMENTS TODAY FEBRUARY DAY 9

From January through to June 2005, four particular periods stand out for their potential to induce major reactions in the solar atmosphere and pull out huge ionic storms, high sunspot counts, and major effects on the Earth’s weather.

SO FAR…fortunately, the odds of major solar eruptions are beginning to decline dramatically. The alignments of December and early January have not produced any significant increase in sunspot counts or solar storms.

(knock on wood, this current alignment could cause sunspot counts to climb for another three days)

The Aphelion Six Way Cluster Bomb

At or near the Earth’s Perihelion (closest approach to the Sun) Mercury will once again align progressively with the inner planets during a 30 day period.

January 13, 2005 Mercury & Mars close couple to
Venus | Pluto and Earth | Saturn
January 27, 2005 Mercury | Venus with Pluto close couple

The Spring Grand Alignment

Jupiter | Earth | Mercury | Sun | Venus

Beginning by about March 7, at least major peaks in the sunspot count should produce three major waves of early Spring storm fronts. The largest peak should form up about the Spring Equinox and the largest storm front should blow in about the time of the Grand Alignment

March 14, 2005 Mercury | Saturn
Spring Alignments begin in three main spirals
March 21,2005 Mars | Pluto with a spiral forming in
Mercury | Earth | Jupiter and another in Venus | Uranus
March 30, 2005 Jupiter | Earth | Mercury | Sun | Venus
form a virtual straight line through the solar system with Mars and Pluto still closely coupled. Observers on Earth will only be able to physically see Jupiter rising on the Eastern horizon just after sunset and Saturn close to the Mid-heavens in the Western half of the sky. In the very early morning Mars and Uranus will be visible.

Summer Ping Pong

June 7, 2005 Venus | Saturn with Mercury moving up in close alignment, followed on June 10 , 2005 with Mercury forming a triplet with Venus and Saturn as Earth couples with Pluto and
Mars | Neptune. The timing of these alignments between these planets is not exact, the electromagnetic balances of the solar system will shift in a complex way, probably producing a number of ups and downs in the sunspot count.

STAR & PLANET WATCHING

For background and the current information on observable planets.

Sirius is my favorite star, partly because it is the Star of Isis and marks the Mysteries as was given from the earliest days of Egypt, and partly also because it probably points to the Key to the Hall of Records.

http://www.space.com/spacewatch/050204_sirius.html

FROM NASA: "As darkness descends this week, cast a glance over toward the east-southeast and you will see a brilliant, bluish-white star scintillating just above the horizon. You'll be looking at the brightest star in the sky, the Dog Star, Sirius.

Sirius is the brightest star of the constellation Canis Major, which is Latin for the "Greater Dog." Among all the visible stars, Sirius is one of only four stars of negative magnitude (-1.44). The lower the figure of magnitude, the brighter the star. Of the 21 brightest stars, twelve are considered to be of first magnitude, and five are of zero magnitude. But only Arcturus, Alpha Centauri, Canopus

and Sirius are bright enough to be assigned a magnitude value lower than zero, or of a negative magnitude.

According to Burnhamâ€™s Celestial Handbook other names for Sirius include "The Sparkling One" or "The Scorching One." The star normally appears a brilliant white with a tinge of blue, but when the air is unsteady, or when it is low to the horizon it seems to flicker and splinter with all the colors of the rainbow. At a distance of just 8.7 light years, Sirius is the fifth-nearest known star. Among the naked-eye stars, it is the nearest of all, with the

sole exception of Alpha Centauri.

Many astronomy books suggest you can locate Sirius by using the belt of Orion; that the belt points southeast directly toward Sirius. Of course, that is absolutely true (in fact, following the belt in the other direction takes you to another first magnitude star, Aldebaran, in Taurus, the Bull). Of course, being the brightest star in the sky has its advantages. It's almost impossible to overlook as it gleams in the southeastern evening sky these

frosty evenings.

If you're still uncertain about what you are seeing and want to make a positive identification, then by all means, use Orion's belt to verify that you're indeed looking at Sirius. Sirius will be due south between 9 and 9:30 p.m. local time all of this week, and doesn't set below the west-southwest horizon until after around

2:15 a.m.

Over thousands of years, Sirius appears to move in a wavy line across the sky. In 1862, Alvan G. Clark first saw Sirius B, also known as "the Pup," the companion star responsible for the wiggle. Sirius B is only one ten-thousandth as bright as Sirius A, but by 1914, spectroscopic observations had demonstrated that its temperature was about the same. From physical laws it follows that B emits the same amount of light per unit surface area as A, therefore to be so dim it must be very small. Later

calculations have shown that A has just over twice the mass as our Sun, but B has nearly one solar mass.

Since it is so small, B must be exceedingly dense. In fact, it packs 98 percent of one solar mass into a body just 2 percent of

the Sun's diameter. To do that, Sirius B must have a density 90,000 times that of the Sun. Unbelievably, just a teaspoon of this star's material would weigh about 2 tons!"

http://www.space.com/spacewatch/050204_sirius.html

NASA REPORTS ON THE NEAREST KNOWN PROBABLE MAJOR ASTEROID ENCOUNTER: "There's no danger of a collision, but on April 13, 2029, asteroid 2004 MN4 will come awfully close to Earth. You'll be able to see the 300m-wide space rock glowing like a 3rd magnitude star as it passes only 30,000 km above our planet's surface--closer than many satellites. [full story] That's a mighty big rock and that's mighty close.

NASA'S DATA ON NEAR EARTH ASTEROIDS: "Potentially Hazardous Asteroids (PHAs) are space rocks larger than approximately 100m that can come closer to Earth than 0.05 AU. None of the known PHAs are on a collision course with our planet, although astronomers are finding new ones all the time."

On 22 Dec 2004 there were 662 known Potentially

Hazardous Asteroids (three more than last month). For January 2005, NASA has listed three Earth-asteroid encounters ranging from 14 to 15 LD’s away (see below).

ASTEROID	DATE (UT)	MISS DISTANCE	MAG.
1998 DV9	Jan. 11	30 LD	15
2004 EW	Feb. 14	23 LD	16
2004 RF84	Feb. 27	23 LD	14

Notes: LD is a "Lunar Distance." 1 LD = 384,401 km, the distance between Earth and the Moon.

SUNSPOTS

The events in the solar atmosphere which impact weather and climate patterns, the magnetic field and auroras, including forecasts for the week, month, and year ahead. CLICK HERE for background information.

To follow the numbers below, click here to view the Solar Cycle 23 Chart. Or, get the data in a NOAA Table.

AS OF FEBRUARY DAY 9: NOT SO QUIET ON THE SUN,

IT HAS BEEN QUITE STORMY NOW THAT YOU MENTION IT.

The Sunspot Count rose very suddenly from 22 on February 5 to 63 on Feb 7 but it is falling and was at 54 as of February 8. The Solar Flux rose from 81 on February 4 and most unexpectedly is still rising past 108 on February 8.

Along with this sudden increase in activity, the MAGNETIC A INDEX FLUX ROSE RADICALLY FROM 2 ON February 4 to 33 on February 8 but dropped again to 20 on February 9.

THIS INCREASE IN THE MAGNETIC FLUX INDEX IS CAUSING DISRUPTIONS IN THE EARTH'S MAGENETIC FIELDS AND WILL LIKELY AFFECT THE WEATHER DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. WHERE IT IS GOING FROM THIS POINT IS ANYONE'S GUESS. THIS IS NOT NECESSARILY THE END OF MAJOR MAGNETIC STORMS. WE COULD SEE ANOTHER SPIKE IN THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

Mercury and Venus are still decoupling and as they do so they are forming alignments with Neptune and Uranus. (See the schedule above). AS PREDICTED LAST WEEK, WE HAVE SEEN A LOW PERIOD OF A FEW DAYS AND WE HAVE ALREADY SEEN THE FIRST, RELATIVELY SMALL PEAK. Another peak is more probable than not and given the radical rise in the Solar Flux, this second peak is likely to be much higher than this last minor peak. We may see a sudden sizable peak about February 10-18 which could impact the Earth's weather during the last week of February.

Date Flux Sunspots Area

2005 02 02 82 28 150

2005 02 03 83 23 50

2005 02 04 82 22 80

2005 02 05 95 22 40

2005 02 06 97 47 140

2005 02 07 103 62 360

2005 02 08 108 53 360

2005 02 09 109 60 490

NOTICE THE LARGE INCREASE IN AREA – THE NUMBERS ARE LIKELY TO SHOOT UP IN THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

AS PREVIOUSLY OBSERVED: Solar Cycle 23 is dying quickly but IT CAN AND WILL OCCASSIONALLY PRODUCE SUDDEN STORMY MOMENTS WITH BRIEF MOMENTS OF HIGH SUNSPOT COUNTS, CME’S FLARES, ETC. "NOW" is the kind of moment when these spritzy solar moods will come.

MONTHLY AVERAGES IN SOLAR CYCLE 23
These numbers are reported by Jan Alvestad

Over all, the sunspot average count (ISSN) for February 2004 was 46.0. By November 2004, the count was still abnormally high at 43.7, making the decline of Solar Cycle 23 slow indeed. But December clearly brought the end of the high sunspot counts. The average dipped down to a low of 17.9, surprising everyone. The predicted average value for January was 27 but the Sun's average sunspot output nearly double December's and rose to 31.3. February's is expected to be 21 and since there are few compelling planetary alignments during February, this projection may well be very close.

FOR 2005 – 2009

The average count should drop during the next 12 months to a monthly low in the range of 10. More and more, now and for the next half dozen years, the Sun will influence Earth’s atmosphere and weather less and less. Global Warming and El Nino type of phenomena will be more and more influential compared to the solar input. The geo-data we gather during the next three years about weather, climate, the Arctic, Antarctic, Drought Regions, etc. will be extremely valuable in telling us what the true long-term geo-trends really are.

NOTE: The Sun and its cycles are really not very "average" and not very "cyclical" or "regular". Nowhere can we find any evidence of an exact regularity, only constant variations. The Sun is and probably always has been a vast cauldron of chaotic storms, electro-magnetic upwellings, and enormous explosions and sudden flares (or CME’s) which can extend out as far as even the outer planets, producing somewhat chaotic impacts on the planets. All this makes exact predictions of solar activity far beyond the pale of human science, even with first class models of the electromagnetic gradients created by the planets and their orbital relationships. From this it is easy to infer with considerable experience and conviction, that nothing on Earth can be foreseen, EXACTLY. Just as some order is inevitable, so is some chaos built directly into the cosmos.

SOLAR ACTIVITY

As reported by NASA/NOAA unless otherwise stated. (Sudden surprises and huge storms are always possible even during sunspot minima periods such as the one we are currently headed into). Descriptions and numbers are based on numbers as given by Iway sources at about 1:00 – 3:00 PM Arizona Mountain Time (which does not have daylight savings time).

The Sun is currently frisky and it may continue so for at least the next 48 hours.

The huge Sunspot Region 720 and its companion are now in full view of the Earth but they are broken up and have greatly diminished. Accordingly, the Sun appears to be tapering off in activity after having peaked during the past 48 hours.

HOWEVER, the Magnetic A Index has suddenly risen and the spike may continue to ride way past

The Solar Wind was brisk at: 714.5 km/s this hour while pushing a thin density of 0.5 protons/cm3".

NASA REPORTS: "Earth is inside a solar wind stream… Last week solar physicists using a technique called helioseismic holography spied two big sunspots on the far side of the sun. Since then the sun's 27-day rotation has turned the pair toward Earth. They're no longer impressive. Decaying sunspot 720 is small and scattered, while sunspot 733, about as wide as Earth, has a simple magnetic field posing little threat for flares. Solar activity should remain low.

Fluxgate Magnetometer: To see the Fluxgate moment to moment, CLICK HERE. The Fluxgate Chart at the University of Alaska (which measures magnetic disturbances in the Earth’s atmosphere created by solar winds and ion storms) is showing two major disturbances during the past 36 hours (as of this time, about 2 PM Mountain time US).

NASA AURORA WATCH: no comments.

NASA PREDICTS: There is a 51-35% probability of geomagnetic storms, 1%-20% probability on coronal holes, CME’s, and M and/or X Class Flares.

Jan Alvestad reports: " The geomagnetic field was unsettled to major storm on February 8. Solar wind speed ranged between 587 and 877 km/sec under the influence of a high speed stream from CH144. Solar flux measured at 20h UTC on 2.8 GHz was 108.2. The planetary A index was 34 (STAR Ap - based on the mean of three hour interval ap indices: 34.5)...At midnight there were 4 spotted regions on the visible solar disk. The solar flare activity level was low. A total of 2 C class events was recorded during the day...No obvious fully or partly Earth directed CMEs were observed...A large recurrent coronal hole (CH144) in the northern hemisphere was in a geoeffective position on February 4-6. "

Jan Alvestad predicts: "The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to active on February 9 due to a high speed stream from CH144, an isolated minor storm interval is possible. Quiet to unsettled is likely on February 10-11." Alvestad also predicts for the next 24 hours a 0-20% probability of coronal holes, a 0-20% probability of CME’s, and a 20-60% probability of M and/or X Class Flares.

WORLD WEATHER SUMMARY

Those who have been watching the weather patterns track the Sunspot Peaks have seen that the correlations between sunspot peaks and major storm fronts coming in off the oceans to track across the continents is roughly pretty good, sometimes very much exactly on the mark. Accordingly, our "sloppycasts" (approximate continental weather patterns) this past few years have proven out to be fairly worthwhile. With the decline in sunspot activity, weather is now more governed by Earth’s geophysics and will be mostly through to about 2010. For geophysical-based reports and predictions – start with Yahoo Weather, or the Weather Channel. Am I resigning from weather forecasts? Almost. This section will only add commentary on possible weather disturbances when major sunspot peaks form up. These should be more rare than during the past four years.

FOR AN ALMANAC SYTLE SUMMARY FORECAST OF 2005 ALIGNMENTS, SUNSPOT PEAKS, WEATHER IMPACTS, AND HUMAN MOOD SHIFTS (through to Summer at this point) AND a general discussion of how all this works and why this is worth doing, click here for Earth Changes Almanac.

AS PREVIOUSLY PREDICTED: I think the weather patterns pretty much prove up the case of Global Warming and reveal what the essential syndrome is going to be: a major shift in the eco systems of the extreme North and the desert zone latitudes with short intense Winters and Summers and long drawn out often stormy Springs and Falls.

EARTH WEATHER PREDICTION FOR THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS

(Northern Hemisphere) This "sloppycast" is based on sunspot counts, planetary alignments, and visual data shown on satellite and radar.

SOLAR ACTIVITY IS DROPPING AGAIN BUT IS LIKELY TO RISE AGAIN IN A FEW MORE DAYS. WE ARE IN AN INBETWEEN PERIOD WHICH WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY MANY UNPREDICTABLE AND UNSTABLE WEATHER FRONTS. EXPECT 50% PROBABILITY OF NEARLY ANYTHING. JET STREAM IS STILL KINKY AND CHAOTIC. THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE OF JUST ABOUT ANYTHING DURING THE NEXT WEEK, FREAK SPRING WEATHER ONE DAY, FREAK SNOW STORM THE NEXT.

EARTH WEATHER PREDICTION FOR WINTER SEASON

(Northern Hemisphere) This "sloppycast" is based on sunspot counts, planetary alignments, and visual data shown on satellite and radar.

The jet stream will gradually unkink and air flow should more and more reflect a normal winter syndrome. After about another week of rain and cold, winter should begin to retreat quickly.

OR MAYBE NOT. That was last week's prediction and it needs to be revised to something more like: winter will hang in for another couple of weeks. IT DOESN'T LOOK LIKE A SHORT WINTER AT ALL.

FOR SPRING:

During the end of March we will have another major round of extreme weather, due to the five planet straight line alignment. After a mild ending to Winter, the first week of Spring will rapidly turn into a very stormy period of about two weeks of extremely wet weather. No doubt the high mountains will have another late round of snow and the skiing season may be extended in many areas.

KEEP WATCHING FOR THIS GLOBAL WARMING WEATHER PATTERN: Global Warming could easily intensify the seasons, making a short bitterly cold Winter, longer intermediate stormy Spring and Fall seasons, and shorter but very hot and dry summers. Don’t we already see this pattern at work in the Northern Hemisphere? NOTE AS OF FEBRUARY 9, THIS IS NOT LOOKING AS GOOD AS IT DID. IT WAS ON TRACK THROUGH TO THE END OF JANUARY BUT IT IS NOW LOOKING LIKE WE HAD AN EARLY WINTER ONSET WHICH IS NOT GOING TO PACK UP ITS BAGS ANY TIME SOON.

SOUTHWEST CONDITIONS

This "sloppycast" is based on six years of living in the USA Pacific Southwest, the sunspot counts, planetary alignments, and visual data shown on satellite and radar.

THIS ONE IS STILL WORKING: No change this week. The forecast below is on track…the grass is growing thicker and taller than ever, the brittlebush is already blooming, the Jojoba are setting beans for the first time in years, wild flowers should be blooming all over by the end of February. If rain continues sporadically, the wildflower bloom could last until Mid May.

I suspect the worst of Winter is over for the Pacific Southwest and that the Sonoran will have a long Spring with some occasional light rain getting rarer and rarer until the Summer Monsoon begins. I am not sure at this point what is in store for the Summer Monsoon.

AS PREVIOUSLY OBSERVED: The past 120 days has clearly broken the drought pattern of the past four years. You can see it in the plants and the atmosphere everywhere. It "feels" wet here now even on a sunny day, which it rarely has during the past six years (that I have been here). Some climatologists are arguing that this is an anomalous wet year for the Pacific Southwest and that the drought will reassert itself next year or the year after. I am inclined to think that the drought in the Southwest is a product of both the Sunspot Cycle 23 and the Global Warming syndrome. From this, I suppose that the drought pattern may be somewhat reduced during the next four years during the Sunspot Minima, submerged completely by a lot of rain during El Nino, if it appears, but slowly the drought will reappear during the next climb of sunspot counts during Solar Sunspot Cycle 24.

EL NINO & LA NINA WATCH
The watch is now open again; Pacific water activity appears mostly normal, we are between the extremes of the ENSO; Click here for the NOAA window on the Pacific Ocean Temperatures:

http://www.cdc.noaa.gov/map/clim/sst_olr/sst_animated.gif

BREAKING NEWS:

As of January 23, 2005, NO TREND IS APPARENT

El Nino MAY OR MAY NOT OCCUR. No prediction one way or the other is truly possible at the current moment but if anyone will lay me odds at Vegas, at the moment I will bet on one.

BACKGROUND:

The NOAA website for El Nino has gotten fairly well organized and is far more digestible by laypeople.

Try clicking here to go to the latest NOAA ENSO Home Page.

If El Nino does begin to firm up, it will have little impact on the Winter of 2005, but it may begin to impact the Spring and hit heavy and hard during the Summer and Fall months and perhaps deliver a VERY wet and warm Winter for 2006.

Or not…only time will tell. Probably by April we will know for certain.

AS REPORTED PREVIOUSLY – THE CLASSIC EL NINO – We do not at this point know whether an El Nino is in the offing for 2005. Purely in accordance with the X Wave correlation which I discovered in the Vortex Tectonics Model, AN EL NINO IS MORE PROBABLE THAN NOT IN 2005. But, the El Nino is not like an astrophysical cycle. There are some "missing" El Nino’s in the record of the 20^th century and we may have a missing one. HOWEVER, WE CAN’T BE CERTAIN UNTIL ABOUT APRIL OF 2005, which is about the latest month in which the syndrome has formed up during previous El Nino’s.

ADDITIONAL NOTE: The year 2004 and/or 2005, in accordance with the 100 year X Wave Graph of the motion of the spin axis in Chandler’s Wobble, COULD BE EL NINO YEARS. Graphs of various El Nino periods seem to show that the beginning of temperature build-up can occur as late as April of an El Nino year. So 2005 may not be callable until early Spring 2005.

KEEP WATCHING THE ARCTIC, ANTARCTIC, and the desert zones. These areas are the most objective front line observatories of the climate shift.

GLOBAL WARMING

It is becoming obvious that we have a long term real shift in the average temperatures and climate regions related to the latitudes. This climate shift is creating a growing environmental disaster in the polar zones and in the desert-prone latitudes such as in the Pacific Southwest. For the latest short review, see Earth Changes Bulletin Update As Of May 26, 2004 and the Earth Changes Bulletin Update As Of August 18, 2004

BREAKING NEWS:

For a broad and detailed perspective on Global Warming issues, go to the Earth Changes Almanac.

NO CHANGE THIS WEEK

IONIZING SOLAR ACTIVITY & MASS BEHAVIOR

Is peace breaking out all over?

Well, maybe not exactly peace, but American dominance certainly is.

With the falling count of the average Sunspot Count, more and more people are shifting international discussions to elections, compromises, negotiations, diplomacy, renouncing or ending violence, etc.. all within the context set by the Imperial Faction.

It is the next wave and it could take us through to the Fall of 2005. How the coalition shapes up in Iraq is super critical, this powder keg may still blow up and ignite a greater war but the likelihood is diminishing. The Shi'a leadership has stuck it out this long, they are likely to rationally push along Iraq's eventual independence, even it takes another year of slowly manipulating the Imperial Faction out.

With the death (likely CIA or MOSSAD inspired assassination) of Arafat, the American military machine is knee deep already in taking over the Palestinian government. A U.S. General has been "appointed" by the PLO to rebuild its "security forces". It should be obvious where all of that is going….

Bush's Democracy is springtime all over the Mid-East and as you have no doubt noticed they are grinning like the Cheshire Cat.

STAND PAT AGAIN THIS WEEK

The assessment as of last week, repeated below, is well and good in very general terms for this rapid descent into Sunspot Cycle 23 MIN.

For a general discussion and forecast for the Spring Season, go to: Earth Changes Almanac

IN GENERAL FOR 2005-2009 DURING LULLS OF THE SOLAR VORTEX:

AS OBSERVED AS OF DECEMBER 30: As the sunspot counts decline and fail to peak for the planetary alignments, the impact on humans and the biosphere is declining progressively. Relatively more human activity will tend to be more driven by mental activity and spiritual connectivity than emotional impulses.

This is going to be especially true with the four year jag of emotional associations around "patriotism". During 2005, patriotism and martial ardor will become increasingly "old" among the young and the marginal. More and more soldiers will wake up and realize they have been on a "bender" which left them in a literal hellhole.

As solar activity ebbs into low activity levels, have you noticed that the polls are increasingly showing that people think the Tragic Invasion of Iraq was in fact A MISTAKE (now some 60%) and that 65% believe Rusted should go.

People collectively are losing the ardor of blind emotional commitments which the sorcerers in the Mass Broadcast Media and the agents of Hillbilly Sunday whipped up. They are waking up to a wicked hangover in bed with a very ugly mess.

This shift is palpable and will grow in magnitude and depth. The Imperial Faction will stall out rapidly during 2005, it is increasingly unlikely that they will have their way in the Middle East.

EARTHQUAKES

Around the world to see the current and potential patterns of seismic activity, with coverage of the windows of danger. Unless otherwise specified, all quake activity which is discussed is based on the USGS database charts and tables which list quake activity in excess of 2.0 mag. and above. Unfortunately there are many lags in reporting of information about quakes, thus neither the numbers of quakes nor the actual quakes discussed may be complete and accurate. Real time analysis of quake patterns is merely AN APPROXIMATION BASED ON INCOMPLETE INFORMATION. FOR MORE QUAKE INFO RELATED TO SYZYGY WINDOWS, Jim Berkland calculates syzygy windows with considerably more sophistication than I do. See Syzygy.com

Except for the residual activity in the NICO bar/Andaman Islands near Sumatra, seismic activity was far more random this past seven days than it has been for the past 45 days. Five shape-shifters in the range of 4.6 to 5.1 struck in the Great Rift of the World Ocean, three along the margin of the Antarctic Tectonic Plate and two in the Mid-Indian Ridge.

Quake activity in North America was up slightly but the frequency of worldwide quake activity was depressed for this Perigee New Moon. It has been so depressed as of this hour, it seems obvious that the other shoe is about to drop. Accordingly, I expect a major outbreak of quakes to occur within the next day or two.

Though diminished in numbers, the magnitude of quakes was high, at least nine quakes in the range of 6.0 to 7.1 have struck during the past seven days, including the 7.1 in the Celebes Sea to the South of the Philippines and a 6.3 in the Bonin Islands on the Northeastern edge of the Philippines Plate.

The number of quakes dropped drastically in the Nicobar/Andaman Islands area and also in Ecuador, but the Philippines plate was very active. Around to the other side of the Pacific Rim, Chile seems to have replaced Ecuador as the focal point of shape-shifting nearly 180 degrees from the Celebes Sea.

North of the Philippines Plate, many quakes struck in Japanese waters, from the Marianas and Bonin Islands through Hokkaido and up into the Kurile Islands.

The Carib Plate remained a tectonic hotspot, sporting quakes on both its Western Pacific edge and its Eastern edge along the Leeward Islands, while at least six volcanoes on it huffed and puffed intermittently.

Fiji, Papua New Guinea, and the Western U.S. remained highly active, as nearly always, while many other quakes struck randomly in Poland (several quakes), Greece, the Aegean, Turkey, India and other locales..

AS PREVIOUSLY OBSERVED: Quite clearly the Earth is rapidly adjusting its shape in response to the phase-shifting of the Chandler Wobble and the sudden rupturing of the Indo-Trench. The equatorial zone is still in process of adjusting the shape of the Earth along Sumatra and at the opposite side at the coast of Equator, which is also on the Equator. This has stimulated adjustment in shape and acceleration of both seismic and volcanic activity from Ecuador to as far North as Colima and Popo.

With the flexing once again of the Great Rift in multiple locations, the shape shifting is probably broadening out to slowly adjust more of the overall shape of the Earth. This has stimulated a focal point of activity in both the Fiji Islands and a sudden increase during the past few days of volcanic activity in Stromboli and Etna. This gives us four points on the Earth which are separated by 90 degrees each.

This shape-shifting process is by no means over. The phase-shifting process in the wobble is not over and will require additional adjustments in the shape of the earth. And, more probable than not, the earth is only beginning to respond to the large amount of change related to the indo-trench area.

A period of accelerated tectonic activity will likely continue for the remainder of this year. THE COMING NEW MOON PERIGEE MAY BE A HIGHLY DANGEROUS TIME.

IMPORTANT ITEM FROM LAST WEEK: As predicted, the equatorial zone on the opposite side of the Earth from the Indo-Trench Rupture did respond to the sudden change in the shape of the equator by Sumatra Island. Quake and volcanic activity are still increasing in Ecuador and Central America. At least a dozen sizable quakes struck in Ecuador during the past five days and a few more struck along the Western coast of El Salvador and Costa Rica. Both Ecuador's and Guatemala's volcanoes are still erupting after starting up during the past three weeks.

NEW THIS WEEK: This equal and opposite activity has shifted from the coast of Ecuador up into Columbia and down into Bolivia and along the coast of Chile. Several quakes in the 4.0-6.0 range struck in widely separated points along Chile's long coast.

AS PREVIOUSLY OBSERVED: I AM STILL VERY CONCERNED THAT THE EARTH IS "COCKING THE TRIGGER" THIS YEAR FOR MAJOR TECTONIC ACTIVITY WHICH WILL BREAK OUT IN CENTRAL AMERICA AND IGNITE EL POPO IN A CATASTROPHIC ERUPTION. THIS HAS BEEN PREDICTED IN A COSTRA NOSTRA DAMUS PREDICTION AND RECENTLY I HAVE DISCOVERED THAT IT WAS ALSO MOST LIKELY PREDICTED DIRECTLY BY THE WORLD FAMOUS MICHEL DE NOSTREDAME.

COSA NOSTRA DAMUS WATCH FOR SOUTH CAL.

SUPER ALERT FOR THIS WATCH!!!

As witnessed by the Indo-Trench Rupture and the aberrant motions of the Earth’s crust, global tectonic motions in the Earth are unstable and obviously are tending to exceptionally explosive releases in the trenches of tectonic collision and in the spreading Great Rift zones.

The Western ledge of the Carib Plate is 180 degrees from the 9.3 quake in the Indo-Trench. Accordingly, the Carib Plate may also release its "shape-shifting" stress during one of the upcoming Lunar syzygies this year. This release could come in the form of major volcanism and major Earthquakes which breaks out first in Central America and then presses the Baja Plate enough to ignite the pattern of earth quakes which are described in the Costa Nostra Damus psychic prediction. We are watching for signals of this possibility very carefully because it will mean life or death for millions of people in Mexico City.

AS PREVIOUSLY OBSERVED: according to the Cosa Nostra Damus Prophecy, a major destructive quake could now strike at any time in Santa Barbara, Santa Monica, Hollywood, the Van Nuys Valley region, Bakersfield, and anywhere along the escarpment of the San Bernardino Mountains. This will be a follow up to the 4.9 quake which was felt in Coos Bay Oregon during July 2004. If a quake occurs near Santa Barbara, warnings will need to be given to Mexico City about the possibility of a major explosive event in Popo.

SLOW EARTH MOVEMENT WATCH

No reports to add this week

SHAPE-SHIFTERS WATCH

The quake activity in the Great Rift is one of the most important harbingers for the Earth Changes Watch to monitor. As the Earth’s crust adjusts its shape in response to gravitational and spin energy vectors, quakes in the Great Rift increase and tectonic activity all around the world increases. (Unless otherwise specified, all quake activity which is discussed is based on the USGS LOCAL AREA database charts and tables which list quake activity in excess of 3.0 mag. and above. Generally most of the quakes which appear in these counts are 4.5 plus in magnitude.) For additional information on Plate Tectonics and charts of the Great Rift of the Earth, go to Plate Tectonics Map

Five shape-shifters, three along the Antarctic Tectonic Plate, two in the Mid-Indian Ridge, 4.6-5.1

Magnitude 5.1 MID-INDIAN RIDGE

Thursday, February 03, 2005 at 04:27:52 UTC

Preliminary Earthquake Report

http://neic.usgs.gov/neis/bulletin/neic_ubad.html

U.S. Geological Survey, National Earthquake Information Center

Location 20.18S 67.43E

Depth 10.0 kilometers

Region MID-INDIAN RIDGE

Reference 420 km (260 miles) E of Rodrigues Island, Mauritius

1035 km (640 miles) E of PORT LOUIS, Mauritius

3810 km (2370 miles) E of Durban, South Africa

Magnitude 4.9 CARLSBERG RIDGE

Thursday, February 03, 2005 at 12:18:33 UTC

Preliminary Earthquake Report

http://neic.usgs.gov/neis/bulletin/neic_ubdh.html

U.S. Geological Survey, National Earthquake Information Center

Location 2.43S 68.50E

Depth 10.0 kilometers

Region CARLSBERG RIDGE

Reference 695 km (430 miles) NW of Diego Garcia, Chagos Archipelago

915 km (570 miles) SW of MALE, Maldives

1635 km (1010 miles) SW of COLOMBO, Sri Lanka

Magnitude 5.1 SOUTH SANDWICH ISLANDS REGION

Wednesday, February 09, 2005 at 20:03:05 UTC

Preliminary Earthquake Report

U.S. Geological Survey, National Earthquake Information Center

Location 55.45S 26.55W

Depth 10.0 kilometers

Region SOUTH SANDWICH ISLANDS REGION

Reference 150 km (90 miles) NNE of Visokoi Island, South Sandwich Islands

395 km (245 miles) N of Bristol Island, South Sandwich Islands

650 km (405 miles) ESE of Grytviken, South Georgia

3375 km (2100 miles) SE of BUENOS AIRES, Argentina

Magnitude 5.0 WEST OF MACQUARIE ISLAND

Sunday, February 06, 2005 at 01:25:43 UTC

Preliminary Earthquake Report

http://neic.usgs.gov/neis/bulletin/neic_ueah.html

U.S. Geological Survey, National Earthquake Information Center

Location 52.99S 140.54E

Depth 10.0 kilometers

Region WEST OF MACQUARIE ISLAND

Reference 1230 km (760 miles) SSW of HOBART, Tasmania, Australia

1725 km (1070 miles) S of MELBOURNE, Victoria, Australia

NORTH AMERICAN WATCH

Unless otherwise specified, all quake activity which is discussed is based on the USGS LOCAL AREA database charts and tables which list quake activity in excess of 1.0 mag. and above. Generally most of the quakes which appear in these counts are in the range of 1 to 2 in magnitude. Any numbers used in this section may or may not be accurate and may or may not reflect what will eventually appear in scientific databases. IMPORTANT NOTE: Most volcano monitoring sites appear to be screening out microquakes. A study needs to be done to establish how to reconcile various lists and databases because of this practice. The numbers below cannot be considered to be definitive totals and subtotals. We use them merely to observe relative fluctuations from week to week.

The following may be the most significant quake in North America this week. I call it the Port Townsend Quake. What is significant about this quake is its small size and how widely it was felt. The Puget Sound Basin is largely composed of a very thick level of sedimentary materials, sand, gravels, glacial till, and humongous quantities of blue-grey clay. This quake proves that even a small quake in that area can cause the sediments to quiver and liquefy enough to send a felt wave to Seattle, some 50 miles away as the crow flies. That is what makes a 6.0 quake in that region so destructive.

Magnitude 3.0 PUGET SOUND REGION, WASHINGTON

Thursday, February 03, 2005 at 14:08:04 UTC

Preliminary Earthquake Report

U.S. Geological Survey, National Earthquake Information Center

Location 48.08N 122.57W

Depth 30.0 kilometers

Region PUGET SOUND REGION, WASHINGTON

Reference 25 km (15 miles) SSE of Oak Harbor, Washington

30 km (20 miles) WNW of Everett, Washington

55 km (35 miles) NNW of Seattle, Washington

120 km (75 miles) NNE of OLYMPIA, Washington

Location Quality Error estimate not available, held by USGS NEIC to another agency's solution

Location Quality

Parameters not available

Source Geophysics Program, University of Washington, Seattle, USA

Remarks Felt (III) at Coupeville, Edmonds, Everett, Marysville, Monroe, Snohomish and Stanwood; (II) at Arlington, Camano Island, Clinton, Langley, Marysville, Mukilteo, Port Townsend and Seattle.

Seismic activity in North America overall for quakes in the range of 1.0 and over was up slightly from the preceding week. Most activity was basically random.

US & ALASKA & ISLANDS --- 595

UP from 578 the prior week;

BIG ISLAND HAWAII (not including microswarms) --- 20

down from 32 during the prior week - these do not include the microquakes under Mauna Loa;

CALIFORNIA – NEVADA --- 308

down from 286 last week, widely scattered in California and Nevada;

LONG VALLEY - MONO LAKE REGION – 14

down from 19 last week – widely scattered

PNW --- 283

up from 226 last week; scattered but dominated 90% by St. Helens activity – 253 mostly for St. Helens;

NE Cal - East of Klamath Falls, Oregon --- 1

down from 1 last week; these are almost certainly volcanic related, quakes have broken out here off and on during the past two years.

Baker -- 2

Tahoma (Rainer) – 2

Hood – 0

UTAH --- 20

up from 17 last week.

YELLOWSTONE WATCH

YELLOWSTONE -- 12 widely scattered

up from 11 last week

WEEK’S MOST SIGNIFICANT QUAKES

Magnitude 6.6 SAIPAN REGION, NORTHERN MARIANA ISLANDS

Saturday, February 05, 2005 at 03:34:24 UTC

Preliminary Earthquake Report

http://neic.usgs.gov/neis/bulletin/neic_udag.html

U.S. Geological Survey, National Earthquake Information Center

Location 15.99N 145.85E

Depth 139.0 kilometers

Region SAIPAN REGION, NORTHERN MARIANA ISLANDS

Reference 45 km (30 miles) SSE of Anatahan, Northern Mariana Islands

90 km (55 miles) N of SAIPAN, Northern Mariana Islands

215 km (135 miles) NNE of Rota, Northern Mariana Islands

305 km (190 miles) NNE of HAGATNA, Guam

Remarks Felt (VI) on Tinian and (V) on Saipan. Felt (IV) at Barrigada, Hagatna, Tamuning and Yigo and (III) at Santa Rita, Guam.

Magnitude 7.1 - CELEBES SEA

2005 February 5 12:23:16 UTC

Preliminary Earthquake Report

http://earthquake.usgs.gov/eqinthenews/2005/usuda2/

U.S. Geological Survey, National Earthquake Information Center

Location 5.358°N, 123.209°E

Depth 501.3 km (311.5 miles)

Region CELEBES SEA

Distances

210 km (130 miles) SE of Zamboanga, Mindanao, Philippines

235 km (145 miles) WSW of General Santos, Mindanao, Philippines

1050 km (650 miles) SSE of MANILA, Philippines

2220 km (1380 miles) NE of JAKARTA, Java, Indonesia

Magnitude 6.2 BONIN ISLANDS, JAPAN REGION

Wednesday, February 09, 2005 at 18:46:11 UTC

Preliminary Earthquake Report

http://neic.usgs.gov/neis/bulletin/neic_uha7.html

U.S. Geological Survey, National Earthquake Information Center

Location 26.06N 144.05E

Depth 29.4 kilometers

Region BONIN ISLANDS, JAPAN REGION

Reference 215 km (135 miles) ESE of Chichi-shima, Bonin Islands, Japan

310 km (190 miles) ENE of Iwo-jima, Volcano Islands, Japan

1140 km (710 miles) SSE of TOKYO, Japan

VOLCANOES

Around the world with the most interesting and relevant volcano stories; briefs on the likely eruptions as well as coverage of on-going activity. For information on current eruptions, see the Southwest Volcano Centre. Or see "Breaking Volcano Eruption News".

OBSERVABLE WORLD VOLCANIC ACTIVITY HAS DEFINITELY CONTINUED AT LAST WEEK'S PACE AND

ONCE AGAIN

INCREASED SLIGHTLY THIS PAST SEVEN DAYS. Numbers are up. The intermittent "smokers" are flaring on and off in ash plumes and lava flows, led as nearly always by the lava flows of Kilauea, which have reached the sea and are now adding to the shoreline of the Hawaii Island, which Etna observed silently for most of this week..

All around the Pacific Rim, ash and steam emissions are continuing. Volcanoes in Ecuador, Guatemala, Nicaragua, Mexico, Kamchatka Peninsula, Papua New Guinea, the Philippines, the Marianas, and the Japanese Islands continued their activity this past few days.

Saint Helens is sedately still building a dome along with several look-alike dome-builders on the Kamchatka Peninsula, though St. Helens efforts this past week have slowed down somewhat. Several of these Pacific Rim Northern Arc volcanoes could flare up and erupt during the next 150 days.

As predicted here last year volcanic activity is still picking up and more probable than not will continue building up on through June of 2005, when once again it will begin to taper off.

WHAT TO EXPECT FROM THIS POINT: Anything on the Carib Plate (East, West, North, or South) is in danger of major tectonic activity during the next 90 days, especially around the Perigeen New Moons. To this list I would add the Northern Arc of the Pacific Rim of Fire, especially on Kamchatka, Alaska, and St. Helens.

SAINT HELENS VOLCANO UPDATES

Text in this section is a condensation of direct quotes from online source:

CURRENT UPDATE supplied by the U.S. Geological Survey, Vancouver, Washington; University of Washington, Pacific Northwest Seismograph Network, Seattle, Washington; U.S. Geological Survey, Vancouver, Washington; University of Washington, Pacific Northwest Seismograph Network, Seattle, Washington

Wednesday, February 9, 2005 10:00 a.m. PST (1800 UTC)

MOUNT ST. HELENS UPDATE

Current status is Volcano Advisory (Alert Level 2); aviation color code ORANGE

Growth of the new lava dome inside the crater of Mount St. Helens continues, accompanied by low rates of seismicity, low emissions of steam and volcanic gases, and minor production of ash. During such eruptions, episodic changes in the level of activity can occur over days to months. The eruption could also intensify suddenly or with little warning and produce explosions that cause hazardous conditions within several miles of the crater and farther downwind. Small lahars could suddenly descend the Toutle River if triggered by heavy rain or by interaction of hot rocks with snow and ice. These lahars pose a negligible hazard below the Sediment Retention Structure (SRS) but could pose a hazard along the river channel upstream.

Potential ash hazards: Wind forecasts from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), coupled with eruption models, show that any ash clouds that rise above the crater rim today would drift northward at low altitudes and northeastward to eastward at higher altitudes

Recent observations: Good weather yesterday provided excellent conditions for field work. A new spyder with GPS and seismic sensors was deployed by helicopter near the top of the new lava dome. Early results show that it is moving upward about 1.5 meters per day and to the southeast about 5 meters per day, a bit more slowly than the last GPS deployed on the dome in mid-January. Preliminary analysis of data from a gas-sensing flight yesterday suggests that gas emissions are unchanged from recent measurements. Other work involved repairs to a radio repeater and replacement of the small window through which the Dome Cam obtains images. The Dome Cam lies near the mouth of the crater and the old window had become scratched as a result of numerous cleanings of ash coatings. The cliff on the south end of the new lava dome is vertical to overhanging and generating rockfalls that are accompanied by small ash clouds.

For additional information, background, images, and other graphics: http://vulcan.wr.usgs.gov/News/framework.html

USGS Cascades Volcano Observatory, the Pacific Northwest Seismograph Network at the University of Washington, and the USGS Northern California Seismic Network and Volcano Hazards Team in Menlo Park, California, monitor the major volcanoes in the Cascade Range of northern California, Oregon, and Washington. The U.S. Geological Survey and the University of Washington continue to monitor the situation closely and will issue additional updates and changes in alert

For additional information, background, images, and other graphics: http://vulcan.wr.usgs.gov/News/framework.html

For seismic information: http://www.pnsn.org/HELENS/welcome.html

For a definition of alert levels: http://vulcan.wr.usgs.gov/News/framework.html

Telephone recordings with the latest update on Mount St. Helens and phone contacts for additional information can be heard by calling: Media (360) 891-5180 General public (360) 891-5202

OTHER CASCADE VOLCANOES as of February Day 9 2005
Same source as above.

"All other volcanoes in the Cascade Range are all at normal levels of background seismicity. These include Mount Baker, Glacier Peak, Mount Rainier, and Mount Adams in Washington State; Mount Hood, Mount Jefferson, Three Sisters, Newberry, and Crater Lake, in Oregon; and Medicine Lake, Mount Shasta, and Lassen Peak in northern California."

What the volcanists are not telling us here is that during the past week four microquakes struck:

2 on the main Tahoma

2 right down the throat of Baker

LATEST FORECAST FOR SAINT HELENS BY EC BULLETIN:

Feb-2 2005: THE INCREASE IN ACTIVITY THIS PAST SEVERAL DAYS ON THE KAMCHATKA PENINSULA IS LIKELY AN OMEN FOR INCREASED ACTIVITY IN ST. HELENS. I EXPECT VIGOROUS ERUPTIONS ON BOTH SIDES OF THE PACIFIC SOMETIME THIS NEXT FIVE MONTHS.

Look for the next increase in eruptive behavior in St. Helens to occur in tandem with an increase in activity on Kamchatka Peninsula and/or in Alaska. Activity among these volcanoes will progressively increase and reach a peak in the period of May – July.

AS OBSERVED LAST MONTH: At least three of the active volcanoes on Kamchatka Peninsula are behaving in many ways very similar to St. Helens. Perhaps we shall see these four volcanoes, which are in the Northern Arc of the Pacific Rim of Fire, flare up virtually simultaneously.

AS REPORTED PREVIOUSLY: Colima may be the closest "model" for how St. Helens may behave during the next few years. Both may erupt off and on with lava flows, as Colima does now from week to week, or with occasional ash plumes, then slowly stewing for weeks and months on end while merely steaming like nearly two dozen other volcanoes around the world, steaming until the next eruptive episode of ash and lava, which may last from a few days to several months. More probable than not, St. Helens will have sudden flare-offs and a few major ash plumes during the next year, but no major, explosive eruption which comes even close to its 1980 eruption. It will continue to sporadically emit steam and ash like Colima and Popo for the next few years. How much and how vigorously remains unpredictable.

Here are the SWVC volcanic activity numbers as of February Day 9 2004: (SWVC does it annual database cleaning and new predictions for the year at this time, accordingly its numbers in early January "break" sequence with the last numbers in December).

8 on restless list (could go on active list at any moment) (up one from last week)

32 alert list – up from 31 last week (alert list are volcanoes with pre-cursor activities suggesting that activity may begin)

23 on active list (seismic, gas, steam, lava, ash, or explosive activity) (up from 22 a week ago)

Popo gave a 12 puff day yesterday. Centrapred reports for February Day 9 (17:00 GMT) that "In the last 24 hours, the system of monitoreo of Popocatépetl volcano registered 12 exhalations of low intensity accompanied by steam, gas and some of them with small amounts of ash.At 7:15 have a event sismotectonic with magnitud 2.2 to deep 3.7 Km. to SE to Crater. At the moment of this report we can see the volcano with a light steam and gas emission. In an aerial photograph taken on January 14th by Ing. Roberto Quaas Weppen(CENAPRED) , subsidence is observed in the inner crater; an external lava dome at the bottom of the crater cannot be distinguished."

HIGHLY INTERESTING NEW PLATE TECTONICS RESOURCE:

Digital World Tectonic Activity Map (DTAM) - visualization tool that presents an actual representational view of global tectonics; created using current global datasets of seismicity, volcanism, and plate motions.

MOST ACTIVE VOLCANOES THIS WEEK

from Volcano Breaking News by Volcanologist John Seach

Volcano Travel: john@volcanolive.com

Dates in red are posted in Eastern Australian Time (UT + 10 hr)

Lopevi Volcano (Vanuatu)
16.50 S, 168.34 E, summit elevation 1413 m, Stratovolcano
Thursday 10th February 2005
Satellite images indicate possible eruptive activity at Lopevi Volcano in Vanuatu beginning at the end of January 2005 and continuing in February. Lopevi volcano is an uninhabited island in central Vanuatu, SW Pacific. Eruptive activity often goes unreported. The hotspot images indicates that magma is close to the surface, or there has been a small lava flow.
Reports of eruptive activity in 2004. John Seach visited SE Ambrym volcano in November 2004 and received reports from residents about previously unreported eruptions of Lopevi in 2004. During September 2004, five large booming noises were heard coming from Lopevi volcano by villagers in south Ambrym. Explosions were separated by 2 minutes. The next day there was ashfall on N and W Ambrym. The eruption was confirmed by satellite image on 28th September 2004. Hotspot activity was also noted at Lopevi on 13th May 2004 a satellite image. This correlates with eyewitness accounts of an eruption of Lopevi volcano obtained by John Seach during a field trip to the region.
More on Lopevi Volcano...
Location Map...
Volcanoes of Vanuatu...

Kliuchevskoi Volcano (Russia)
56.06 N, 160.64 E, summit elevation 4835 m, stratovolcano
Wednesday 9th February 2005
Eruptions continue at Kliuchevskoi volcano in Russia. Ash emissions are visible in satellite images stretching a hundred kilometres from the volcano. Lava is flowing down the western slope of the volcano. Mixing of lava and snow is creating phreatic explosions. Lava fountains and bomb ejection is visible at the summit crater. The eruption is creating mudflows with a diameter of 500 m, and moving boulders 3 m in diameter, and tree trunks. The mudflows pose a serious risk, and residents have been warned about the hazard. Flights near the volcano have not been affected. Kliuchevskoi volcano began erupting on 17th January and the eruptions may continue for months to years.
More on Kliuchevskoi volcano...
Location Map...

Ambrym Volcano (Vanuatu)
16.25 S, 168.12 E, summit elevation 1334 m, Pyroclastic Shield Volcano
Monday 7th February 2005
Continued eruptions from Ambrym Volcano are causing problems for residents of the island. Acid rain and ashfall have forced several families to relocate to the islands of Malekula and Santo. Serious food and water shortage has been a problem on the island which was hit by cyclone Ivy early 2004 and then suffered volcanic eruptions over the year. John Seach visited Ambrym in October and November 2004 and documented the volcanic eruptions and damage to the island. A total loss of food crops was observed in south and west Ambrym. This was caused by northerly winds and rain which blew during large ash emissions from one of the summit craters. John Seach measured caldera rainfall with a pH of 2.0, five kilometres from the active craters. Extensive yellowing was seen on vegetation and crops 12 km from the craters on the populated coastal areas. This type of volcanic damage has continued into 2005. Staple foods like banana, kumala, island cabbage and coconut have been destroyed. The western side of the island is the worst affected. Some people have complained of stomach aches and diarrhoea. So far no relief assistance has been sent. Ambrym is one of the most active volcanoes in the Melanesia. It has been in a regular state of eruption since first reports by Cook in 1774. The volcano is noted for the lava lake which regularly appear in the summit craters. The lava lakes are currently not present at the volcano.
More on Ambrym Volcano...
Location Map...
Vanuatu Volcanoes...

Anatahan Volcano (Mariana Islands)
16.35 N, 145.67 E, summit elevation 788 m, Stratovolcano
Monday 7th February 2005
Eruptions continue at Anatahan Volcano in Mariana Islands. The volcano was hit by a large earthquake on Saturday afternoon with a magnitude of 6.6. The earthquake is not expected to affect the eruption of Anatahan volcano. There are continuous ash and gas emissions. Satellite images show an eruption plume extending 190 nautical miles southwest of the volcano. Over the past few days ash emissions have reached 20,000 ft altitude and vog was recorded at Guam (340 km SSE), decreasing visibility to 10 km.
More on Anatahan Volcano...

Large Earthquake hits Anatahan Volcano (Magnitude 6.6)
Saturday 5th February 2005
A large earthquake hit Anatahan volcano in the Mariana Islands this afternoon. The epicenter was located 45 km SSE of Anatahan volcano and struck at 01:34 PM local time. Anatahan volcano continues to erupt with Strombolian eruptions occurring at a rate of several per minute. On 3rd February, vog was reported at Guam where visibility was reduced to 7 miles. The third historical eruption of Anatahan began one month ago on January 5. The eruption is sending ash to a height of 10,000 ft. Anatahan Island has been placed off limits until further notice and aircraft are advised to pass upwind of Anatahan or beyond 30 km downwind from the island and exercise due caution within 30 km of Anatahan.
More on Anatahan Volcano...

Veniaminof Volcano (Alaska)
56.17 N, 159.38 W, summit elevation 2507 m, stratovolcano
Saturday 5th February 2005
Strombolian activity was visible at Veniaminof Volcano on the evening of Thursday 3rd February. The eruption was visible from Perryville, 30 km from the volcano. The activity ejected glowing lava rocks mostly within the crater area. Ash and steam emissions continue. Veniaminof volcano has been at orange alert since January 10, 2005 after 10 days of increased seismic activity.
More on Veniaminof Volcano...

Manam Volcano (Papua New Guinea)
4.10 S, 145.06 E, summit elevation 1807 m, Stratovolcano
Friday 4th February 2005
Eruptions continue at Manam volcano in Papua New Guinea. Radio communications have been re-established to the island following the large eruption last week which destroyed the volcano observatory. Further large eruptions are possible. Manam volcano remains at stage 3 alert (4 being the highest level). Australia is providing over 300,000 dollars to aid the Manam Island people displaced by the recent eruptions. The funding will assist in providing safe drinking water, sanitation and hygiene training for people now living in care centres on the mainland. Manan is the most active volcano in Papua New Guinea along with Bagana volcano in Bougainville, which has also been active this month.
More on Manam Volcano...
Volcanoes of Papua New Guinea...

Kilauea Volcano (Hawaii)
19.425 N, 155.292 W, summit elevation 1222 m, Shield volcano
Friday 4th February 2005
Lava has reached the ocean at two locations at Kilauea Volcano in Hawaii. One entry point is about 1.5 miles from the parking area at the end of Chain of Craters Road, and the second is about 4.5 miles from the road. The flow is near an area known as West Highcastle and began trickling into the ocean late last week but the volcano is now erupting significant quantities of lava. The flow in an area called Ka'ili'ili began entering the ocean Monday. Both flows originate from a vent on the southwest flank of Pu'u 'O'o. About 1,000 people a day have been making the trip down Chain of Craters Road to watch the lava. The numbers of people are expected to pick up as word spreads that lava has reached the sea again.
More on Kilauea volcano...
Volcanoes of Hawaii...

Mayon Volcano (Philippines)
13.257 N, 123.685 E, summit elevation 2462 m, stratovolcano
Thursday 3rd February 2005
The Philippine Institute of Volcanology and Seismology (PHIVOLCS) reported today that increased seismic activity at Mayon Volcano in central Philippines has been recorded during the past 24 hours. Six low frequency and one high frequency short duration harmonic tremors were registered by seismometers located at the volcano. The agency warned residents living near the volcano not to venture into the six-kilometer radius Permanent Danger Zone. The exclusion zone is strictly enforced on the southeast sector where debris avalanches and pyroclastic flows are liable to occur. The last large eruptions of Mayon were in July 2001when there were pyroclastic flows, lava fountains and lahars.
More on Mayon Volcano...

Standing Assessment: Likely, it is fair to conclude that the not-so-invisible Black Arts Nation, from HAARP to the Navy, to the Bush/Ashcroft prisons in Iraq/Afghanistan and Cuba, not to mention many other technologies, areas, and programs, are far out of ethical, moral, constitutional, and treaty control, as has been widely feared.

BLACK ARTS NATION

NO UPDATE THIS WEEK

We are just on the front edge of "the outing"….

OR ARE WE?

ONCE AGAIN WE ARE GETTING A LOT MORE DETAILS ABOUT THE TORTURE SCANDALS BUT ALL THE INFORMATION SEEMS TO END UP IN THE DEAD LETTER OFFICE.

THERE IS NO CHANGE THIS WEEK IN ACTION WHICH IS AIMED AT DEALING WITH IT

The Imperial System has neatly contained the problem and is adroitly sending its grunts to jail for 10 year stretches to take the fall for the institutional network of officers, planners, spooks, and academic quacks who have designed an American Gulag which stretches from where ever and back again..

It looks like civilized people are being taken collectively to the cleaners and once again their noses are being rubbed in the realization that after all, this is NOT a civilization, it is a masquerade.

So far the scandals are being kept in the closets of Washington DC. Like Votescam 2004, the clear evidence of a military intelligence corps which is out of control and half off its rockers should be big news, not to mention the growing international interest in pulling down Rumsfeld with indictments to eat his own words.

But very little is manifesting in actual dynamics of change.

Except this: through the Iway the web of connections is being spun in greater and greater detail, in better and better fidelity and precision. It is ONLY through the Iway that the web of corruption is going to be fully spun. I think it is well worth the spinning, eventually events will conspire to bring Humpty Dumpty into question. If their wicked web has been reasonably spun out into completion, suddenly it will have the strength of a rope, with the power to hang Humpty Dumpty, or pull him down from the Wall.

BUT AS OBSERVED LAST YEAR. The auguries are not clear to me this past two weeks on how any of this is going, or even if any of this IS going anywhere during the next several months. If none of this goes anywhere, take it as a given, take it as a fact, that all is lost on the Republic and we have passed into in the deep twilight zone of a Fascist nightmare for which there may not be any electoral remedy…at least not while we are mired within the deep sorcery which the Mass Broadcast Media now casts in greater depth all around us. It is as if after the elections they turned up the volume of manipulation by at least a half turn of the knob.

Despite impeccable scientific reasoning, high caliber informed observers and investigators, the story of the stolen elections simply will not be told in America through the corporatized media. By their acts, said the good saint, ye shall know them. Doubtless, we are in very deep doodoo and, with few exceptions, the only things allowed on TV are a bunch of chickens clucking through the mire.

ECONOMY WATCH

NO CHANGE THIS WEEK OF FEBRUARY 9 2005

ALL SIGNALS MIXED, THE ECONOMY IS "WOBBLING" WITH VERY LITTLE "GOOD NEWS" OR HOPES. As throughout most of 2004, there are still no signs of a general recovery of the classic 20^th century kind. MOST COMMENTARY AND EXPECTATIONS ARE PESSIMISTIC FOR 2005. The most optimistic projections appear to be in the nature of "holding" firm with small improvements. The worst expectations are dire indeed.

I predict that most of the expectations will turn sour after May or June. I also predict that they will become more and more morose as the economy begins to show a rapid movement into recession during the later part of the year and then clearly moves into depression in 2006.

STAGFLATION IS BUILDING MOMENTUM FOR A CONSIDERABLE RISE DURING 2005.

COMMODITY PRICES WILL CLIMB RAPIDLY DURING 2005 TO CATCH UP WITH THE HUGE INCREASE IN ENERGY COSTS (UP SOME 30% THIS YEAR). This will generate a pernicious inflation in NORTH AMERICA.

The economy will never regain any sense of confidence in government efforts to build the basis for more solid growth. The Bush administration will continue to lose credibility, will come under severe legal pressure from wide ranging indictments, perhaps even impeachment proceedings (long overdue), and this gathering loss of political confidence will destroy corporate confidence.

This loss of confidence may be experienced first in Europe and Japan, even China, which may bring the recessionary pressures home to the U.S. with a rapid decline in demand for American products and a shrinking profit base for American companies overseas.

AS OBSERVED IN DECEMBER: With the re-election of George Bush a completely new scenario for the next two years is needed. It is this: the main driving force of the economy will transition fully into an Imperial economy. It will be based on major militarization of the U.S. to AMP up Empire Building for general export. We may be as in Germany as in approximately 1934-6. During the 1930’s, while much of the world was mired in a deep depression, Germany, Italy, and Japan under the Fascists (Corporate National Plutocracy) prospered in a wave of tremendous prosperity for their workers. The Fascists terminated all external debt to the international banks and recycled their currencies highly astutely without the need to finance debt. That is why Hitler, Mussolini, and the Japanese Militarists were so fervently supported.

A massive empire building drive to export "Order" over the greater portion of the world’s petroleum reserves will shore up the value of the petro dollar quite nicely and preserve its hegemony well through the "peak oil" period. Huge expenditures on armaments should provide a continuing stimulus of the North American economy, enough to at least keep it gimping along while the Empire is consolidated.

The eventual eclipse of well oil poses no long term problem. Only naïve analysts are worried. Once oil supply is seriously declining and oil prices can be maintained above $80/barrel, some people in the oil industry, including David Rockefeller, understand the means of "growing" your own. They have held the secrets of this for some 23 years.

THE ONLY BUMP ON THE ROAD TO THE IMPERIAL ECONOMY is "global warming". This is bringing people into other solutions than the use of oil. Is this not a course of development the cabals of great wealth in America must resist as strongly as they can? If this is correct, we would expect that a great political struggle will be waged on both sides of this global warming issue. We should expect to see that the Republicrats will resist encouraging a replacement for oil to the very bitter end. Without dominance over oil, their feudalized world will dissolve away from them.

BACKGROUNDERS FOR JANUARY ON THE STATE OF THE U.S. ECONOMY

GENERAL PREDICTION DJI AVERAGES

THIS WEEK

Oil prices sagged and the dollar rose while the DOW stood firm and slightly higher. See the relationship.

LAST WEEK

Fed signals slightly higher interest rates while Oil held near constant and Stocks and Dollar all firmed up higher. See the relationship.

The DJI finished February Day 9 at 10,664.11 UP about $70 from 10,596.79 a week ago.

DON’T PLAN ON ANYTHING HIGHER THIS YEAR BUT THIS PREDICTION IS STILL GOOD: AS PREVIOUSLY REPORTED: "Propredictions" predicts a soft DJI around 11,000 during the first quarter of 2005. IT LOOKS LIKE THIS IS PROBABLY ON TARGET FOR A FLUCTUATION IN THE MARKET. BUT IT WON’T LAST LONG. And be careful with their numbers, they tend to be in the right direction but they tend to be optimistically high.

AS OBSERVED DURING 2004: WATCH THIS VERY CAREFULLY – WAR IN THE MIDDLE EAST IS THE PRIMARY FACTOR DRIVING OIL UP IN PRICE AND ACCELERATING THE DECLINE IN THE DOLLAR. The dollar of course is a major factor. As the dollar drops AND the stock values remain constant, U.S. stocks will become suddenly cheaper for foreign investors and they may begin to convert to buy U.S. stocks. This also will firm up values when it occurs, but I have no idea where the conversion points are. This is all a complex equation which could go sideways at any moment. THE MAIN PROVISO IS AL QAEDA. When they strike in the U.S. again, they will trump all else.

MAIN OVER-RIDING STRATEGIC VARIABLE: THIS IS NOW ABATING: The main weakness in the international economy is that THE BUSH ADMINISTRATION IS SO INCOMPETENT THAT NO INTERNATIONAL ACTOR KNOWS HOW TO BE RATIONAL AND MAKE REAL DECISIONS. EVERYTHING IS HEDGED AND HIDDEN.

For the players, what the Bush administration will and will not do is beginning to become more and more set. This allows other to make their bets on the outcomes, pro and con.

WORLD CONFIDENCE MAY IMPROVE FOR A WHILE if a Shiite coalition can take power in Iraq through the elections and motivate Bush to substantially withdraw American troops.

THIS IS NOW ON COURSE.

EURO WATCH - DOLLAR VALUE FIRM AGAINST EURO - IT WILL WEAKEN WITH RENEWED OIL PRICE INCREASES

BUT, OIL PRICES SAGGED AND THE DOLLAR ROSE WHILE THE DOW STOOD FIRM.

The dollar closed today at 0.7804 per euro, about one and one fourth cent higher than last week which was at 0.7678 per euro.

They must be managing this now on computer program. This item below may have something to do with the firming of the values:

Interesting article on current dynamics of currency markets

http://biz.yahoo.com/rb/050119/markets_forex_8.html

Did you know that corporations have a special "deal" this year which allows them to repatriate billions of dollars in foreign profits