PHOENIX FIVE EARTH CHANGES BULLETIN

Monitoring The Changes In The Earth

edited by Michael Wells Mandeville copyright September Day 29 2004

                                                                                                             

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Please Note:  This Bulletin is conceived as a System.  It is still in an early stage of evolution.  We intend to progressively link into this synopsis system all of the major news feeds of Planet Earth which articulate aspects of the profound historical Change In The Earth which is underway.

 

 

 

Earth Changes Bulletin Update As Of September 29 2004

You have heard of the Weather Report?  Here exclusively is this week’s  "Earth Report" - a short review of the “big picture” about how the dynamic changes in the Sun and the Earth are effecting our lives more and more intensely, with the latest prognostications and predictions for weathermen, farmers, investors, businessmen, and every man.

 

You may click here for the full text of the Earth Changes Bulletin Update for this week, or use this  URL

 

http://www.michaelmandeville.com/earthmonitor/ecbulletins/2004/ecb_Sept_29_04.htm

 

 

On the geophysical front,  FOR THIS AMAZING GLOBAL WARMING YEAR, sunspots have plunged at 25 and solar activity is very low, leaving weather conditions with very little solar energization. Storms are now muting out their intensify.  No El Nino trend is apparent but an anomalous huge patch of warming water North of  Hawaii is still growing and will force Fall weather in North America into chaotic, unpredictable patterns, exactly as it has this past week.  Alaska’s drought is most likely over for at least this year. Meanwhile, Earth’s tectonics are anything but calm.  Volcanism is up from week’s level.  The worldwide increase in ignition and pre-ignition signals suggests that St. Helens ignition signals really are heralds of another eruption to occur soon.  Quake activity was quite subdued around most of the world, but five shape-shifter quakes struck in the Great Rifts of the ocean bottoms this past week and most likely set off strong motion in the Baja Plate and the rupture of the San Andreas Fault which produced a 6.0 quake yesterday and some 600 aftershocks in the 24 hour period afterward, quite possibly a record number.  Motion of North America against the Pacific plate may also have let loose the genie in the St. Helens bag, some 1000 to 2000 quakes a day constitute a clear ignition signal of an eruption during the next 120 days.

 

On the geopolitical front, the good news remains in the economy for the moment, the need to rebuild is stimulating a uptick in the economy.  This gives everything a little more life for the next few months. The bad news is that, as everyone now knows, the crisis in Iraq has reached critical condition. As things stand, the U.S. is losing the struggle in Iraq and helicopter evacuations will probably end this tragedy near the summer of 2005.  But most likely the Presidential debates will not provide much help, rather they are more likely to divide and polarize conditions even more and continue to throw up confusion.  Will someone please kindly ask the Islamic community to step up to the table and resolve this terrible tragedy with some common sense?.  Quite apparently crazy euro white man culture in North America cannot.  The even worse news is that more and more doubt is gathering that the U.S. elections will be safe or fair in many locations.  Quite aside from the known “back doors” into vote tabulation software which has already manipulated at least two local elections in the U.S., most recently the Carter Center has put the world community on notice that the election machinery in Florida has been so slovenly managed and ludicrously manipulated once again by the Bush family, that every detail at every location must be intensively watched to insure a fair result…

 

….and you think this country is polarized now.

 

On the sermonizing front:  A RADICALLY NEW STRATEGIC APPROACH BY AN ASTUTE LEADER IS IMMEDIATELY NECESSARY TO AVERT FURTHER TRAGEDY.  The one sure method for destroying the terrorist and insurgency movements is to help the Islamic community forge a common front to oppose both the crudities of western interference and the barbarism of the jihadists and Baathists.  If figures like Al Sistani can rise to the occasion, they are most likely to be the ones who are able to resolve the situation into peaceful conditions  and “arrange” the abrupt withdrawal of American troops. Since it is clear that the U.S. is completely incompetent to rebuild Iraq or to indulge its fantasies of Imperial domination through a half-baked military expedition, the more quickly Islamic forces can arrange the withdrawal of American forces, THE BETTER.  I fail to see any other solution.

 

Go to detailed synopsis…

 

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NOTES

Grayed items are not yet operational

 

 

 

Program Thesis:

What are we trying to do with the Earth Changes Bulletin?

Most news media do not handle technical and scientific subjects like geology and earth sciences very well.  They don't understand the causes and effects of activities in the Sun and Earth.  Accordingly, they often do not understand if, when, how, why to report earthquakes, volcanic activity, global warming effects  The treatment often sounds absent-minded, poorly qualified, and frequently contains various technical errors.  Seldom is the treatment entertaining and genuinely educational.

Based on new scientific principles which have emerged during the past thirty years, many of the dynamic activities of the Sun and Earth can be linked together to see how a range of effects are linked together.  This makes it possible to paint "the big picture" into a perspective which explains many diverse events and processes, especially climate and weather patterns such as global warming and El Nino. From the "big picture", long range predictions can be made for weeks and even months ahead.  The result is sophisticated cutting-edge information which is objective, balanced, astute, relevant, and can be easily seen and appreciated by lay audiences.  The perspective is generally global, seldom parochial. For the framework of concepts, terms, and current conditions which are used or described in the these Bulletins, see the Earth Changes 2003 Almanac Calendar.

 

To see the internet resources which are used to prepare this Update, take a look at the Earth Monitor front page - http://www.michaelmandeville.com/earthmonitor/

 

 

PREVIOUS
WEEKLY

UPDATES

 

September 29, 2004

September 22, 2004

September 15, 2004

September 8, 2004

September 1, 2004

August 25, 2004

August 18, 2004

August 11, 2004

July 28, 2004

July 21, 2004

July 14, 2004

July 7, 2004

June 30, 2004

June 23, 2004

June 16, 2004

June 9, 2004

June 2, 2004

May 26, 2004

May 19, 2004

May 12, 2004

 

 

SPONSORING:

THE COMING ECONOMIC COLLAPSE OF 2006, which puts today, tomorrow, and the trends together into the Cayce 25 year economic cycle which will “bottom” in 2006/2007.  Click here to download

 

THIS BOOK STILL COOKS AND IT WILL COOK THE POLITICIANS AND THE ECONOMY ALL THE WAY THROUGH TO 2008:  This synthesis is far ahead of the daily digests in all halls of the internet media: so far (since may 2003) the track record on this set of predictions for 2003-2008 is running 100 per cent.  If you have not purchased this book, you will remain ignorant of the main dynamics which are rapidly changing everything. 

 

LATEST UPDATE NOTE AS OF SEPTEMBER 29, 2004: 

The main proviso in all things is “The October Surprise”.  This is such a strong psychic impression among a great many, I will now be surprised if there is NOT an “October Surprise”.  Since the October surprise is widely expected to be highly negative, it most likely will influence all markets negatively.  In the main, hold to the course laid out months ago. There will likely be some recovery in the equity markets to rise the DJI closer to 10,500 before it heads South for good sometime next year, probably early.  Oil prices are substantially higher than anyone thought and part of the reason is completely logical, oil production is depressed by weather and political disturbances, while Asian demand is soaring at a much more rapid rate than expected.  This is softening equity markets in the U.S. and inflating the petro-dollar with rapidly rising international commodity prices.  I normally stay away from gold, but it looks good at this time, but only for a quick flip during the next year. But don’t buy unless you “know when to fold ‘em”. 

 

LATEST UPDATE NOTE AS OF SEPTEMBER 1, 2004: 

All projections are on track.  This month and next more probable than not are the last months of the last bubble in this 25 year leg of the long term economic cycle.  When equities begin to slide this Fall, they will hunt up and down sporadically as the chaos deepens through 2005.  Absolute Bottom will be found in 2006 or in 2007 and a very slow increase (not driven by Bull speculation) will probably begin to manifest in 2008.  In the interim period, most of the “Fortune 500” will disappear in their current form and their remnants will reappear as vastly different companies..

 

 

 

 

 

 

HOUSEKEEPING

 

MANDEVILLE IS ON THE RADIO EVERY WEDNESDAY WITH

Alex Merklinger (Millennium Radio) show at 6 PM Arizona Time (also 6 PM Pacific Daylight Saving Time).   Regular Weekly Update For The Earth Changes Bulletin.  To find Iway archives and stations, see Millennium Radio Network

 

 

 

Begin Synopsis

 

 As stated in the “Coming Economic Collapse of 2006”, the nature of human politics reflects the communication abilities of the human species.  As we transform the media, as we have been on the Iway, we will transform human politics and the entire Earth.  Making the way for the New Earth is operationally equivalent to making a new Media on the Iway. Not that that is all that there is to it.  Not by a long shot…but IT IS one of the essentials we need to dissolve the blockages and dance around the tyrannies.

 

 

SPIRITUAL WATCH

How to converge and express the spirit of mass transformation into manifestation, HOW to be, IS the question. How to do is the praxis of the time.  Examining this question, probing it, is the chief trendline of this year.

 

WE WERE RIGHT ABOUT THIS CALL MADE LAST WEEK >>> IGNORE THE TOUTATIS ASTEROID SCARE – No credible scientific source is reporting anything close to a close call.  It is passing by us at over four Lunar distances in a few days.  NASA reports that the orbit is predictable, which means it is stable.  NASA and the astronomy buffs around the world are highly competitive and all of them have a great self-interest in being the first to find “provocative news”.  If there was anything closer with Toutatis, it would be raging news in serious venues. As it is, the entire scare is based on “psychic sources”, most likely originated by the Billy Meier group.  My prediction, Billy Meier will be proven wrong.

 

BILLY MEIER WAS PROVEN WRONG.  Most of his predictions forward of this date are a mishmash of stuff from dozens if not hundreds of borrowed sources…primarily Zoroastrian/Romanized Christian sources.  Meier’s “ET” source fails to exhibit sufficient intellect and ability to communicate scientifically with enough credibility to command continued attention. I do not believe that extra-terrestrial intelligence would waste its time and my time with the mishmash presented in Meier’s material. 

 

In my opinion it is just another flavor of “channeled” material which has never been “credentialed” with actual third party documented proof.  The main material available is “stories”, “stories about stories”, and “claims” about “claims”.

 

Having said all this, I believe that Meier is actually somewhat psychic and does, as an “intuitive”, pick up some insights and “readings” or “indications” about some stuff which is coming down the pike.  I believe it is about as equal in value to the material in Star, National Enquirer, or other tabloids of that ilk.  Those who can hear, let them hear.

 

KEEP FOCUSING ON PEACE, DISENGAGEMENT FROM HOSTILITY, RESOLUTION OF CONFLICT,

 

WALKING AWAY FROM WARS AND LEADERS WHO CREATE WARS

 

A great turning towards peace is underway in the hearts and minds of a great mass of humanity, EVEN AS the merchants of dominance, hate,  revenge, and violence appear to crow even more loudly on the world stage or can be found eagerly arranging a major increase in the tempo of bomb explosions to murder and maime even more people.   A consciousness is gathering greater focus to dissolve away the entire Bush-Alqaeda continuum of absolutism and militarism and replace its brutalities with profound movement en masse towards peaceful solutions.

 

Look for it.  Greet it.  Nourish it with love.

 

BREATH FREE. Let go of everything which is disturbed, distorted, or weird.  Let go of everything which is forced, contrived, hidden, manipulative, and/or constrictive. Keep flowing with the rising tide of spiritual energies which are filling many thirsty souls.  The old patterns are falling away.  Transition continues. Embrace new relationships which are trying to form in your life if they are honest and straightforward and provide a new openness. Forget the fears of the unknown, embrace all that which lifts your life into the light of a greater understanding and relationship with the all.

 

EVERYTHING IS WORKING OUT DIFFERENTLY THAN PEOPLE ARE CURRENTLY FEARING OR PROJECTING.  IT WILL CONTINUE TO BE SO.  In a short while, some will come forth giving witness to a great energy which has come into their lives, literally, as if the hand of God was upon them.  This is becoming more and more apparent and these words will have greater meaning by the end of the year.

 

 

 

The “Great Purification” predicted by the Hopi, Maya, Q’ero, and many others continues.  How amazing that these ancient oral traditions could tune into last year and this one to advise us that this was a period of profound historical turning involving

The Great Purification

of the Earth? For additional discussion, see the commentary of May 19, 2004 and the commentary of June 16, 2004.

 

THE NEW BASIS IS GESTATING….

THE time to link the spiritual communities of the Earth. The Whole Earth. IT HAS BECOME URGENT TO LINK THE SPIRITUAL COMMUNITIES WITHIN A BROAD MOVEMENT WHICH PROVIDES NEW CURRENTS OF SPIRITUAL LEADERSHIP.

 

 

FOR THE MOST PART: Steady as she goes. A slow acceleration in the shifting of the poles has been underway for perhaps the past 100 years and the last three decades has shown an increase in the rate of acceleration.  This has appeared to accelerate even more during the past decade.

 

 

POLAR MOTION

What is happening to the motion of the Earth. For the overall summary of the status of polar motion CLICK HERE.  To see the current graphs of polar motion, CLICK HERE. Scroll down the page until you get to the black and white graphs with show the x and y coordinates of the North Spin Axis on two separate graphs.

 

No change as of September Day 29, 2004:  North Spin Axis appears to moving fairly normally.  It is currently tightening up rapidly as it heads into its minima phase which will begin in 2006.

 

http://maia.usno.navy.mil/xplot2.gif

 

http://maia.usno.navy.mil/yplot2.gif

 

 

 

 

MAGNETIC POLES – SHIFTING

What is happening to the magnetic fields of the Earth.  No real change during the past year:  a magnetic pole shift is not something to be very concerned about within this decade at least.

 

Currently, there is little of note.  Despite many claims, there are no apparent trends which will hold up to historical analysis of many different regions of the Earth.

 

 

 

 

Asteroids

As of June 04,

NASA’S

ESTIMATE:

“Potentially Hazardous Asteroids (PHAs) are space rocks larger than approximately 100m that can come closer to Earth than 0.05 AU. None of the known PHAs  (asteroids) are on a collision course with our planet, although astronomers are finding new ones all the time.”

 

 

PLANETS & ALIGNMENTS
(all time coordinates here and elsewhere are in UTC unless otherwise noted, dates for planetary alignments are derived from Home Planet Software using PC graphics, due to limitations of software and graphics display, actual timing may be off as much as three days, for scientific work, use a professional ephemeris for exact dates).  For background and the current information on planetary alignments go to the Earth Changes Almanac Calendar.  The Almanac lays out the planets and the lunar phases for entire year in advance to allow you to find the best and worst periods of weather, earthquake activity, ethereal “lunar” influences, etc.  

 

Daily Planet – click here for sheer artistic pleasure

Every day John Walker’s  (Home Planet Software) computer creates a new image of  hypothetical habitable planet, just one every day for the estimated 2 billion potential habitable planets in our Galaxy, which the Egyptians more or less named Nun, a mother Goddess from which all life flows.  Euro people nursery tales converted the name into the Milky Way.  http://www.fourmilab.ch/terranova/terranovag.html

 

Moon Perigee/Apogee/Phase Data  - click here to be always up to date

Earth/Moon Viewer by John Walker
http://www.fourmilab.ch/earthview/pacalc.html


Daily Solar System – click here to view Planet Alignments

The Home Planet software computes in real time the exact relative positions of the planets.  Go here to view today’s image of the solar system as seen from a heliocentric view (the sun in the center, you looking at the entire solar system as if it were a big pancake.  You can set any date and time.  You should generally ask the form to give you the “equal orbits” view so you can see all the planets.

http://www.fourmilab.ch/cgi-bin/uncgi/Solar

 

LUNAR PERIGEE/APOGEE/PHASE TABLE FOR THE REMAINDER OF 2004

 

                                             Distance

Perigee         22-Sep 21:13    369599 km        F-5d15h

Full               28-Sep 13:09               

Apogee         5-Oct    22:11    404326 km        F+7d 9h

New              14-Oct  2:48                 

Perigee         18-Oct  0:04      367757 km        N+3d21h

Full               28-Oct  3:08                 

Apogee         2-Nov    18:10    404998 km        F+5d15h

New              12-Nov  14:27               

Perigee         14-Nov  13:55    362312 km        N+1d23h

Full               26-Nov  20:08               

Apogee         30-Nov  11:26    405951 km        F+3d15h

Perigee         12-Dec 21:31    357985 km        N+  20h

New              12-Dec 1:29                 

Full               26-Dec 15:07               

Apogee         27-Dec 19:16    406487 km        F+1d 4h

 

For 2005, see the August 25 EC Update

 

TODAY’S MOON

 

We are still in Lunation #1011 and just slightly past the Full Moon of September 28 at 13:09 UTC.  As of September Day 29, the Moon this day is now close to the Equator in its North Node (North of the Equator 16 days past the New Moon and about 7 days past the last Perigee.  It is now approximately 390,000 KM from the Earth. It is 97% of the Full Moon (visibility or phase). 

 

The Next Apogee is October 5.  Within another two days, quake activity should now diminish to very low levels.

 

WHY WAS THIS THE HARVEST MOON?  It was the first Full Moon after the Fall Equinox.  The Fall Equinox heralds the end of the growing season and the beginning of the final harvests for the years.  During the first Full Moon of the Fall Season, farmers used the extra light of the Full Moon to work until they dropped.

 

SEISMIC SYZYGY WINDOWS

 

We entered the seismic window for the Perigee about September 19 and we will leave it once again on September 25.  Seismic activity should be peaking now and decrease slowly until about September 26 and then bob up again for the Full Moon Syzygy, which will end about September 30.

 

HALF BAD CALL FROM PREVIOUS WEEKS:  “September’s seismic activity should be somewhat weaker over all than August’s.”  Overall quake magnitudes have in fact been weaker.  But major swarms related San Andreas Fault, Mono Lake Volcanic Field, and St. Helens, have elevated totals of small quakes into very large numbers for North America.

 

October 12 to October 20:  The next important syzygy period will be the New Moon Near Perigee which runs from October 14 – October 18.  Add two days to either side, we have an eight day period of higher seismic activity than normal…

 

The two strongest seismic syzygies remaining for 2004 will be the New Moon of November 12 (Perigee within less than two days) and December 12 (Perigee within 20 hours).

 

For describing the peak danger periods for the most damaging earthquakes. these Perigee syzygies I will define arbitrarily as

 

November 10 – November 16

 

December 10 – December 15

 

Jim Berkland, the originator of using syzygy to define the most active periods of seismic activity has a more complex method for computing dates and you may want to use his methods for greater precision.  For details see the Syzygy website  

 

(Perigee = the Moon’s closest approach to the Earth during its monthly orbit which increases gravitational influence of the Moon by as much as 15%; Apogee = the Moon’s greatest distance from the Earth during its monthly orbit).   (Berkland has a more complex formula for syzygy and his dates are often different.)  For details see the Syzygy website.

 

THE NEXT PLANETARY ALIGNMENTS

For any “Home Planet Software” charts of the planets which are shown here or through URLS which are provided on this page, you can decipher which planet is which by counting the orbital rings if you do not know the signs which denote the planets. Mercury is 1 closest to the Sun, Venus is 2, Earth is 3, Mars is 4, Jupiter is 5, Saturn is 6, Uranus is 7, Neptune is 8, Pluto is 9, and both Planet X and Nibiru are bogus.

 

We have more or less entered the Triple Whammy Alignments for September 28 through October 3.  This group of alignments involves Mercury aligning with Mar and Jupiter as all three line up in a very close alignment. 

 

This should produce quite a bit of activity on the sun.  BUT SO FAR AS OF THIS DATE, NO SHOW.  SUNSPOT ACTIVITY IS AT MINIMA.

 

LIST OF ALIGNMENTS THROUGH SEPTEMBER 2004

 

***September 28, 2004

***Mars is in near alignment with Jupiter as Mercury catches up to form a nearly a straight alignment with Mercury, within 5 degrees, with all other planets widely dispersed
***October 1, 2004

***Mercury | Mars | Jupiter perfected

 

PLANETARY ALIGNMENTS FOR THE NEXT 10 MONTHS

For the next 10 months, four particular periods stand out for their potential to induce major reactions in the solar atmosphere and pull out huge ionic storms, high sunspot counts, and major effects on the Earth’s weather.

 

The Triple Whammy September Surprise September 28, 2004 - October 1, 2004

 

Mercury | Mars | Jupiter in a triple alignment

Spots peak about the Fall Equinox and Weather turns into chaos by about October 1, followed by extreme Fall flooding by the middle of October in the usual places.

 

The Aphelion Six Way Cluster Bomb

 

At or near the Earth’s Apogee (closest approach to the Sun) Mercury will once again align progressively with the inner planets during a 30 day period.  Expect an INTENSELY STORMY WINTER.

December 30, 2004  Mercury | Jupiter
Venus and Mars still close and Earth near Saturn alignment
January 13, 2005  Mercury & Mars close couple to
Venus | Pluto and Earth | Saturn
January 27, 2005  Mercury | Venus with Pluto close couple

 

The Spring Grand Alignment

Jupiter | Earth | Mercury | Sun | Venus

 

Beginning by about March 7, at least major peaks in the sunspot count should produce three major waves of early Spring storm fronts.  The largest peak should form up about the Spring Equinox and the largest storm front should blow in about the time of the Grand Alignment

 

March 14, 2005  Mercury | Saturn
Spring Alignments begin in three main spirals
March 21,2005  Mars | Pluto with a spiral forming in
Mercury | Earth | Jupiter and another in Venus | Uranus
March 30, 2005 Jupiter | Earth | Mercury | Sun | Venus
form a virtual straight line through the solar system with Mars and Pluto still closely coupled. Observers on Earth will only be able to physically see Jupiter rising on the Eastern horizon just after sunset and Saturn close to the Mid-heavens in the Western half of the sky. In the very early morning Mars and Uranus visible

 

Summer Ping Pong

 

June 7, 2005  Venus | Saturn with Mercury moving up in close alignment, followed on June 10 , 2005 with Mercury forming a triplet with Venus and Saturn as Earth couples with Pluto and
Mars | Neptune.  The timing of these alignments between these planets is not exact, the electromagnetic balances of the solar system will shift in a complex way, probably producing a number of ups and downs.

 

 

 

 

 

 

PLANET WATCHING  

For background and the current information on observable planets.

 

NASA'S DATA ON NEAR EARTH ASTEROIDS:  "Potentially Hazardous Asteroids (PHAs) are space rocks larger than approximately 100m that can come closer to Earth than 0.05 AU. None of the known PHAs are on a collision course with our planet, although astronomers are finding new ones all the time. On 29 Sep 2004 there were 618 known Potentially Hazardous Asteroids." During September 2004, there were four Earth-asteroid encounters, the closest was Toutatis at four lunar distances. 

 

NASA REPORTS: “ASTEROID FLYBY: A big asteroid named 4179 Toutatis is flying past Earth today. This space rock is shaped like a peanut about 3 miles long and it tumbles like a badly thrown football. Astronomers say there's no danger of a collision, but they'll be monitoring it closely anyway. All asteroids glow by means of reflected sunlight. Toutatis is about as bright as a 9th magnitude star. It's an easy target for backyard telescopes--but only in the southern hemisphere. Observers in Australia and New Zealand will have a good view of Toutatis gliding 1o from the bright star Alpha Centauri.”

 

 

 

 

 

SUNSPOTS

The events in the solar atmosphere which impact weather and climate patterns, the magnetic field and auroras, including forecasts for the week, month, and year ahead. CLICK HERE for background information.  

To follow the numbers below, click here to view the Solar Cycle 23 Chart. Or, get the data in a NOAA Table.

 

The Sunspot Count on September 28 was 27 IN PLATEAU. Solar Flux was 90 and IN A PLATEAU.  The Solar Flux has gradually dropped from 110 on September 15 and sunspots have followed the Flux downward from 67 on the same day.

 

Date          Flux  Sunspots  Area

 

MORE PROBABLE THAN NOT:  A new peak should begin to form immediately for the month-end Triple Whammy planetary alignments involving Mercury, Mars, and Jupiter.

 

SO FAR THE PEAK IS LATE, BUT THAT SOMETIMES HAPPENS.  IT MAY NOT FORM UP UNTIL AROUND OCTOBER 1-3.

 

MONTHLY AVERAGES IN SOLAR CYCLE 23
These numbers are reported by Jan Alvestad

Over all, the sunspot average count (ISSN) for February 2004 was 46.0. March 2004  was even higher with the ISSN average count at 48.9  April’s count was radically lower at 39.3.  The May 2004 average count of 41.5 was SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN in April.  June 2004 was higher still with an average count of 43.2. and July took as even higher to an average count of 51.  August’s count dropped the average to 40, which returns us to the point on the general curve which we reached during April 2004.

 

 

 

 

SOLAR ACTIVITY

As reported by NASA/NOAA unless otherwise stated.  (Sudden surprises and huge storms are always possible even during sunspot minima periods such as the one we are currently headed into).  Descriptions and numbers are based on numbers as given by iway sources at about 1:00 – 3:00 PM Arizona Mountain Time (which does not have daylight savings time).

 

The Solar Wind was modest at 384.4 km/s this day while pushing a somewhat thick density of 4.2 protons/cm3”.   

 

In general not much activity nor is much foreseen through the next 48 hours.

 

Fluxgate Magnetometer:  The Fluxgate Chart at the University of Alaska (which measures magnetic disturbances in the Earth’s atmosphere created by solar winds and ion storms) has been flat-line for the past 36 hours. (as of this time, about 2 PM Mountain time US). To see the Fluxgate moment to moment, CLICK HERE.

 

NASA AURORA WATCH:  AURORA SEASON - it's now aurora season. Scientists don't completely understand why, but there are more geomagnetic storms and auroras around the autumnal equinox than any other time of the year.” BUT, “There are no big coronal holes on the Earth-facing side of the sun today” and virtually no significant solar activity, which means that there is very little stimulus coming into the Earth’s magnetosphere to produce Auroras.

 

NASA PREDICTS AS OF SEPTEMBER DAY 29: “Solar activity is very low and it should remain low for at least the next three days. Unless something unexpected happens, bright auroras are unlikely this week. There are no big coronal holes on the Earth-facing side of the sun.” During the next 24/48 hours, probability for an M-class solar flare is at 1% and for an X-class solar flare is at 1%, with a generally 5% - 30% probability for minor to severe geomagnetic disturbances during the next 24/48 hours, depending upon latitude (higher the latitude, higher the probability). 

 

Jan Alvestad reports:  “The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled on September 28. Solar wind speed ranged between 351 and 398 km/sec under the influence of a low speed flow from coronal hole CH115. Solar flux measured at 20h UTC on 2.8 GHz was 89.9. The planetary A index was 8 (STAR Ap - based on the mean of three hour interval ap indices: 9.1)…At midnight there were 2 spotted regions on the visible disk. The solar flare activity level was very low. No C class events were recorded during the day….September 26-28: No obviously earth directed CMEs observed…No obvious coronal holes are currently approaching geoeffective positions.”

 

Jan Alvestad predicts:  “The geomagnetic field is expected to be mostly quiet on September 29 - October 1.“  Alvestad also predicts a 0% probability of coronal holes, a 0% probability of CME’s, and a 0% probability of M and/or X Class Flares.

 

 

 

 

 

WORLD WEATHER SUMMARY

Those who have been following the patterns have seen that the correlations between sunspot peaks and major storm fronts coming in off the oceans to track across the continents is roughly pretty good, sometimes very much exactly on the mark.  Accordingly, our “sloppycasts” (approximate continental weather patterns) this past few years have proven out to be fairly worthwhile.

 

 

You couldn’t possibly convince anyone in Florida, but they were very very lucky that the sunspot count stayed so low.  Jeanne could have been a Category Four had sunspot timing been maximal.

 

The TRIPLE WHAMMY alignment on September 28 – October 1 between Mercury | Mars | Jupiter should bring another high spike in the Sunspot Count above 100.  

 

BAD CALL FROM PREVIOUS WEEK:  “This peak should begin to form by about September 20 and bring intense, wet Fall storms no later than October 5.”

 

NEW CALL:  The peak may form up anytime beginning September 30 through to October 5.  This will bring in very wet Fall storms through about October 12 – 19.  Flooding should swamp flood-prone areas about October 15 through 25.

 

HURRICANE GENERAL ADVISORY:  September 30 through October 5 most likely will provide a rising solar ionic influx which will tend to increase the size and severity of Hurricanes.  Watch the daily sunspot peak to determine whether a storm will increase or decrease in size.

 

EARTH WEATHER PREDICTION FOR THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS

(Northern Hemisphere) This “sloppycast” is based on sunspot counts, planetary alignments, and visual data shown on satellite and radar.

 

All conditions muting out slowly but there is a major anomaly on the U.S. West Coast, perhaps due to the huge patch of warm water (around 8-12 degrees F. above normal) near the Gulf of Alaska due North of Hawaii.

 

THIS MAY BE PRODUCING THE CURRENT ROUND OF EXTRMES IN FALL STORMS IN THE MOUNTAIN STATES.

 

EVEN TORNADOES TODAY IN ARIZONA (WHICH ARE VERY RARE).

 

Other than on the North American West Coast, the weather, pending the next rise in sunspots, should continue to mute out during the next several days – almost towards Indian Summer conditions.

 

 

EARTH WEATHER PREDICTION FOR FALL SEASON

(Northern Hemisphere) This “sloppycast” is based on sunspot counts, planetary alignments, and visual data shown on satellite and radar.

 

WILD AND WOOLY:  The output of the Sun is currently too volatile and unpredictable to give very good predictions.  Accordingly, expect 50% probability of anything.

 

Another wave will begin to form up about October 1st.  The long slow alignments of Mercury, Mars, and Jupiter from September 28 through October 1 should bring sunspots from below 20 up to well above 100 to intensify any Hurricanes, Typhoons, and Marine Storm Fronts coming in off the Pacific and Atlantic Oceans.

 

I expect a very wet October with a strong continuation of the early “Fall Syndrome”. THIS SHOULD BE A GREAT YEAR FOR SHROOMING.

 

KEEP WATCHING FOR THIS PATTERN:  Global Warming could easily intensify the seasons, making a short bitterly cold Winter, longer intermediate stormy Spring and Fall seasons, and shorter but very hot and dry summers. Don’t we already see this pattern at work in the Northern Hemisphere?

 

SOUTHWEST CONDITIONS

This “sloppycast” is based on six years of living in the USA Pacific Southwest, the sunspot counts, planetary alignments, and visual data shown on satellite and radar.

 

The current round of storm fronts should mute out quickly as it blows over the “great divide”, where it will plaque the Great Plains with late season twisters.

 

AS PREVIOUSLY REPORTED:  For a large part of the elevations below 4000 feet in the Southwest,  the general drought in the Western U.S. is still holding sway. Only the Winter of 2005 remains a hope at this point.  At this point, everyone in the Southwest should begin to pray in earnest for a HUGE El Nino effect.  During the last El Nino, the Southwest received substantial water. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

EL NINO & LA NINA WATCH
The watch is now open again; Pacific water activity appears mostly normal, we are between the extremes of the ENSO; Click here for the NOAA window on the Pacific Ocean Temperatures:

http://www.cdc.noaa.gov/map/clim/sst_olr/sst_animated.gif

 

AS REPORTED PREVIOUSLY – THE CLASSIC EL NINO – We do not at this point know whether an El Nino is in the offing for 2005.  There are no signs of it along the Equator in the Pacific.  Purely in accordance with the X Wave correlation which I discovered in the Vortex Tectonics Model,  AN EL NINO IS MORE PROBABLE THAN NOT IN 2005.  But, the El Nino is not like an astrophysical cycle.  There are some “missing” El Nino’s in the record of the 20th century and we may have a missing one.  HOWEVER, WE CAN’T BE CERTAIN UNTIL ABOUT APRIL OF 2005, which is about the latest month in which the syndrome has formed up during previous El Nino’s.

 

OF MAJOR INTEREST:  as reported in prior weeks, a huge spot of warm water, considerably above average range, concentrated in a huge zone North of the Hawaiian Islands.  The previous zone between Hawaii and the California coast has virtually disappeared.

 

This must be having a major impact on all marine and West Coast weather patterns.    This is not your normal pattern at all and it will create some El Nino characteristics in the Fall Weather for the Gulf of Alaska and the Pacific Coast of North America.  It should be highly productive of wet warm marine air seeking to flow into North America along the more northerly latitudes. 

 

MOST ESPECIALLY, IT SHOULD DISTORT THE JET STREAM PATTERN, GIVING IT A MORE EXTREME KINK AS IT WORKS ACROSS NORTH AMERICA.

 

By increasing and altering the pattern of the  flow of wet marine air into North America, this patch of warm water (up to about eight degrees higher than normal in its center) will effect the weather of North America through the Mid-West and even into New England and Eastern Canada.  If it persists into December, we should see exceptionally heavy snowfalls in all mountain areas

 

Until a RECOGNIZABLE trend forms up, it is impossible to predict what is going to happen on this front. Accordingly, we are flying into Weather chaos. 

 

ONE LAST NOTE ABOUT EL NINO PATTERN:  A stable band of slightly warmer than normal surface water has formed up along the Pacific Equator across a thousand miles or more of the mid-ocean during September.  This could become the core of a warming band which generates the El Nino of 2005.

 

ADDITIONAL NOTE:  The year 2004 and/or 2005, in accordance with the 100 year X Wave Graph of the motion of the spin axis in Chandler’s Wobble, COULD BE EL NINO YEARS.   Graphs of various El Nino periods seem to show that the beginning of temperature build-up can occur as late as April of an El Nino year.  So 2005 may not be callable until early Spring 2005.

 

 

 

KEEP WATCHING THE ARCTIC,  ANTARCTIC, and the desert zones. These areas are the most objective front line observatories of the climate shift.

 

 

GLOBAL WARMING

It is becoming obvious that we have a long term real shift in the average temperatures and climate regions related to the latitudes.  This climate shift is creating a growing environmental disaster in the polar zones and in the desert-prone latitudes such as in the Pacific Southwest. For the latest short review, see Earth Changes Bulletin Update As Of May 26, 2004 and the Earth Changes Bulletin Update As Of August 18, 2004

 

It is apparent from dozens and hundreds of reports from around the world that “global warming” is accelerating climate shifts and ecological changes around the world.  These changes are so varied in such great quantity, it is difficult to summarize the shifts which are going on but it is impossible to ignore them.

 

Here is most likely one of the effects of the current round of GLOBAL WARMING:  the four huge, record-breaking hurricanes which slammed into Florida this fall.

 

As we saw, THE INTENSITY OF THESE HURRICANES WERE DEFINITILY MODULATED BY THE SUNSPOT COUNTS.  BUT THEIR HUGE SIZE MOST LIKELY WAS A PRODUCT OF A WARMER EARTH.

 

WARMER AIR AND WARMER WATER WILL CAUSE MORE AIR TO MOVE, THE LOW AIR PRESSURE IN THE CENTER OF THE HURRICANE (A RELATIVE VACUUM) WILL ACCELERATE THE VELOCITY OF THE AIR, AND ALL THIS WILL PICK UP A LOT MORE WATER THROUGH FASTER EVAPORATION OVER A WIDER AREA.

 

A huge increase in sunspots is directly connected with an increased rate of ionization of the Earth’s atmosphere, which expands the upper atmosphere into space, which DROPS THE AIR PRESSURE AT THE BOTTOM OF THE VORTEX OF THE HURRICANE FASTER THAN SURROUNDING AIR TO INTENSIFY THE MOTION OF ALL THE AIR AT THE PERIPHERY OF THE HURRICANE.

 

Simple stuff.  The sunspot influence should be provable in the tightest of terms by going backward in time and paralleling sunspot activity with hour by hour Hurricane data.

 

The Global Warming connection we are still winging, since the phenomenon is all new, at least for recorded science.  But what else could it be – THIS RECORD BREAKING HURRICANE SEASON?  All weather is now more extreme consistently, right along with the obvious signs of a clear year to year TREND LINE of planet-scale warming in the Arctic.

 

LOOK FOR THE “HEADLINES ON EARTH NEWS”  WHICH I OCCASSIONALLY SEND.  THERE IS SO MUCH HAPPENING ON THIS FRONT IT IS DIFFICULT TO EASILY SUMMARIZE IT.

 

For latest comments on Global Warming,

 

Earth Changes Bulletin Update As Of August 25, 2004

 

For backgrounder information about Global Warming and how to look for it and correlate it to the real causes (solar influx and tectonic heat rifts in the bottoms of the oceans), see

 

Earth Changes Bulletin Update As Of July 14, 2004

 

 

 

 

 

IONIZING SOLAR ACTIVITY & MASS BEHAVIOR

 

 

Continue to expect heavy choppiness in all things human.  Sudden shifts, both good and ill, everywhere.

 

AS PREVIOUSLY OBSERVED:  September has seen a sudden huge chop of fear among the world’s politicians, including throughout Washington DC.  A large emotional reaction is welling up in fear that the Bush Administration is now loosing the war in Iraq and that the election of a new President will be too late to avoid serious military loses.  Even senior Republican leaders are now admitting (in hallway whispers) that the Bush administration is lying. As things stand at the moment, the Republican coalition is crumbling rapidly, more and more flaking away from the Pentecostal “core”.

 

Yet at the same time, September has produced a strong up chop for Bush. A large mass of public opinion has firmed up in the opposite direction from most insider opinion.

 

THESE REACTION BUBBLES ARE LIKELY NOW HIGHLY SOLIDIFIED AND WILL FINALLY CRYSTALLIZE DURING THE FIRST HALF OF OCTOBER.  THIS WILL PRODUCE INTENSE STRESS AND INSTABILITY IN AMERICAN POLITICS.

 

All in all, continue to expect heavy emotional hard-line responses and activity during the next two weeks, volatile sudden changes and activities tending to produce chaos in events and confusion in the minds of large numbers of people.

 

After October 5, conditions should settle out and crystallize slowly through October and November and December.  There are no planetary alignments until December 30.

 

Whatever crystallizes out during October is likely to remain a constant until the alignments of January 5, 2005.  Given world conditions, the crystallization between humans is likely to be highly polarized and highly charged with emotional energy.

 

It is likely then, that whatever “surprises” and sudden changes may be coming our way are likely to right around the first week in October 2004 and the events of that period will tend to dominate the remainder of the year.

 

 

 

 

 

EARTHQUAKES

Around the world to see the current and potential patterns of seismic activity, with coverage of the windows of danger.  Unless otherwise specified, all quake activity which is discussed is based on the USGS database charts and tables which list quake activity in excess of 2.0 mag. and above.  Unfortunately there are many lags in reporting of information about quakes, thus neither the numbers of quakes nor the actual quakes discussed may be complete and accurate.  Real time analysis of quake patterns is merely AN APPROXIMATION BASED ON INCOMPLETE INFORMATION.  FOR MORE QUAKE INFO RELATED TO SYZYGY WINDOWS, Jim Berkland calculates syzygy windows with considerably more sophistication than I do.  See Syzygy.com

Seismic activity has not been up in magnitude SO FAR for this Full Moon Syzygy, nor has it been up much in frequency from all quakes above 3.0. For microquake swarms, it is a different story altogether, they were popping out where least expected.

 

Overall, both magnitudes and frequency of quakes for the past seven days over 3.0  has been very modest, although shape-shifter quakes in the Great Rift of the ocean bottoms increased. 

 

All the usual places were struck with very modest levels of seismic activity.  Since we still have at least another 24 hours for the Full Moon Syzygy, this could change suddenly.

 

However, the Western coast of both Latin America and North America were relatively active compared with the rest of the world. Two shape-shifter quakes in the Mid Atlantic Rift plus two more along the edge of the Antarctic Tectonic Plate below Latin America and Africa, plus one in the East Pacific Rift, appeared to squeeze the Americas into faster motion than the rest of the crust.

 

This pattern could even be seen in the sequencing of the quakes.  Reading the following list from the bottom first, we can see a shape shifter strike to the East of the Carib plate, which may have transmitted additional stress onto the Baja Plate, where suddenly three quakes struck. This movement of the Baja Plate would have transmitted a build up of stress on the San Andreas Fault.

 

2004/09/24  17:27:03  38.01N  118.67W  10.6     3.1 CENTRAL CALIFORNIA

2004/09/24  15:27:22  29.21N  112.55W  10.0     3.8 GULF OF CALIFORNIA

2004/09/24  14:43:11  28.58N  112.71W  10.0     5.9 GULF OF CALIFORNIA

2004/09/24  10:34:52  0.66N     26.07W   10.0    5.8 CENTRAL MID-ATLANTIC RIDGE

 

Then four days later, a 5.3 quake in the South Mid Atlantic Ridge was followed an hour and a half later by a 6.3 quake along the Antarctic Tectonic Plate (between Antarctica and Africa).  Then an hour and 45 minutes later, the 6.0 quake ruptured the San Andreas Fault.  This rupture was immediately followed by a near constant tremulation of the edges of the tectonic plates (North America Plate grinding against the Pacific Ocean Plate).  Some 600 small aftershocks produced what may be a record.

 

This observation which connects the plates is of course completely anecdotal, as they say, but this connection of quakes along the Western U.S. to the Mid Atlantic Rift quakes we have observed here in previous months. There is both a theoretical connection and an observable empirical connection. These observations point to where to focus serious geophysical research about the dynamics of the motions of the crust.

 

While on the subject of observations, the recent swarms of volcanic quakes related to St. Helens, Mauna Loa, Yellowstone, Long Valley, and Mono Lake reveal a major weakness on the online quake databases and display mechanisms.  Yellowstone and Long Valley quakes show up on the USGS charts, but almost all of the Mauna Loa and St. Helens quakes are being screened out and not included in the USGS summaries.  One has to go to local university databases. 

 

This is a strange artifact and needs to be addressed by geophysicists.  We need to make the database tools work consistently for planet-wide comparisons.

 

COSA NOSTRA DAMUS WATCH FOR SOUTH CAL.

 

AS PREVIOUSLY OBSERVED: according to the Cosa Nostra Damus Prophecy, a major destructive quake could now strike at any time in Santa Barbara, Santa Monica, Hollywood, the Van Nuys Valley region, Bakersfield, and anywhere along the escarpment of the San Bernardino Mountains. This will be a follow up to the 4.9 quake which was felt in Coos Bay Oregon during July 2004.  If a quake occurs near Santa Barbara, warnings will need to be given to Mexico City about the possibility of a major explosive event in Popo.

 

SLOW EARTH MOVEMENT WATCH

 

No reports to add this week

 

SHAPE-SHIFTERS WATCH

The quake activity in the Great Rift is one of the most important harbingers for the Earth Changes Watch to monitor. As the Earth’s crust adjusts its shape in response to gravitational and spin energy vectors, quakes in the Great Rift increase and tectonic activity all around the world increases. (Unless otherwise specified, all quake activity which is discussed is based on the USGS LOCAL AREA database charts and tables which list quake activity in excess of 3.0 mag. and above. Generally most of the quakes which appear in these counts are 4.5 plus in magnitude.)  For additional information on Plate Tectonics and charts of the Great Rift of the Earth, go to Plate Tectonics Map

 

The USGS World Chart for the past seven days totaled up five shape-shifters in the Great Rift of the ocean bottoms.  Two quakes struck the Mid-Atlantic Ridge, one 5.8 a little North of the Equator and one 5.3 a little South of the Equator.  A 6.3 struck along the Antarctic Tectonic Plate to the South of Africa, a 5.0 struck to the South of South America, and a 5.7 struck the East Pacific Rise to the West of Chile.

 

Magnitude 5.0 SOUTH SANDWICH ISLANDS REGION

Wednesday, September 29, 2004 at 02:00:56 UTC

Preliminary Earthquake Report

http://neic.usgs.gov/neis/bulletin/neic_nzad.html

U.S. Geological Survey, National Earthquake Information Center

Location        58.66S 25.37W

Depth            36.3 kilometers

Region          SOUTH SANDWICH ISLANDS REGION

Reference     75 km (45 miles) ENE of Bristol Island, South Sandwich Islands

245 km (150 miles) SSE of Visokoi Island, South Sandwich Islands

3630 km (2250 miles) SSE of BUENOS AIRES, Argentina

 

Magnitude 5.3 SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC RIDGE

Tuesday, September 28, 2004 at 13:43:24 UTC

Preliminary Earthquake Report

http://neic.usgs.gov/neis/bulletin/neic_nydt.html

U.S. Geological Survey, National Earthquake Information Center

Location        13.08S 14.93W

Depth            10.0 kilometers

Region          SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC RIDGE

Reference     570 km (355 miles) S of Ascension Island

2625 km (1630 miles) SW of ACCRA, Ghana

 

Magnitude 4.7 SOUTHERN EAST PACIFIC RISE

Monday, September 27, 2004 at 20:06:02 UTC

Preliminary Earthquake Report

http://neic.usgs.gov/neis/bulletin/neic_nxcg.html

U.S. Geological Survey, National Earthquake Information Center

Location        35.40S 105.87W

Depth            10.0 kilometers

Region          SOUTHERN EAST PACIFIC RISE

Reference     975 km (610 miles) SSE of Hanga Roa, Easter Island

3225 km (2000 miles) WSW of SANTIAGO, Chile

 

Magnitude 5.8 CENTRAL MID-ATLANTIC RIDGE

Friday, September 24, 2004 at 10:34:52 UTC

Preliminary Earthquake Report

http://neic.usgs.gov/neis/bulletin/neic_nuau.html

U.S. Geological Survey, National Earthquake Information Center

Location        0.66N 26.07W

Depth            10.0 kilometers

Region          CENTRAL MID-ATLANTIC RIDGE

Reference     870 km (540 miles) NE of Fernando de Noronha, Pernambuco, Brazil

1245 km (770 miles) NE of Natal, Rio Grande do Norte, Brazil

1380 km (850 miles) NE of Recife, Pernambuco, Brazil

3015 km (1870 miles) NE of BRASILIA, Distrito Federal, Brazil

 

Magnitude 6.4 SOUTH OF AFRICA

Tuesday, September 28, 2004 at 15:29:53 UTC

Preliminary Earthquake Report

http://neic.usgs.gov/neis/bulletin/neic_nyay.html

U.S. Geological Survey, National Earthquake Information Center

Location        52.39S 28.10E

Depth            10.0 kilometers

Region          SOUTH OF AFRICA

Reference     930 km (570 miles) SW of Marion Island, Prince Edward Islands

2505 km (1560 miles) S of Durban, South Africa

 

NORTH AMERICAN WATCH

Unless otherwise specified, all quake activity which is discussed is based on the USGS LOCAL AREA database charts and tables which list quake activity in excess of 1.0 mag. and above. Generally most of the quakes which appear in these counts are in the range of 1 to 2 in magnitudeAny numbers used in this section may or may not be accurate and may or may not reflect what will eventually appear in scientific databases.

 

Seismic activity in North America overall for quakes in the range of 1.0 and over was generally up this last week for the past seven days.

 

The greatest activity was tightly clustered near Paso Robles in Central Coastal California along the San Andreas Fault.  A widely reported 6.0 quake ruptured the San Andreas Fault yesterday and a huge number of after shocks, some 600 as of about 3 PM AZ Mountain Time ( about 1 am Sept. 30 UTC), has kept the crust in undulation for the past 24 hours.  Most of these were microquakes but several quakes in the range of 3.0 to 4.5 have also struck along about a 50 mile corridor.

 

Another tight cluster of some 184 microquakes struck due East of Mono Lake nearly dead on the Nevada border.  This swarm continued the swarm which appeared in the week before, but the rate was sharply down to about one third of the previous week.  Since Mono Lake is a large volcanic landform to the North of the Long Valley Cauldera, it is most certain that this continuing swarm of small quakes, typically in the range of 1.0 to 2.0, was produced by a breaking of dikes and the flow of magma some four to five miles below the surface. 

 

This swarm of some 600 quakes near Paso Robles, plus the 184 quakes near Mono Lake during the past several days naturally increased the totals for North America.

 

There were probably some 1300 quakes in U.S./Alaska as a whole, up from 985  the prior week. (probably is used to qualify the number because the internet server at USGS has slipped a gear and is not totaling North American quakes properly) 

 

67 small microtremors in the PNW, up from 25 last week, widely scattered in Washington State mainly along the Cascades; THESE DO NOT INCLUDE THE MICROSWARM AT ST. HELENS.

 

14 in Utah, up from 13 last week.

 

1077 in California and Nevada, up from 845 last week, widely scattered in California and Nevada; these were widely scattered except for the 600 more or less centered around the 6.0 Paso Robles quake

 

The Long Lake Cauldera saw the typical number of quakes, 28  down from 13 last week. 

 

The Mono Lake Volcano Field had 146, down substantially from the 500+ microquakes of the preceding seven days.

 

11 on the Big Island of Hawaii, but these do not include the microquakes swarming below Mauna Loa

 

 

YELLOWSTONE WATCH

Unless otherwise specified, all quake activity which is discussed is based on the USGS LOCAL AREA database charts and tables which list quake activity in excess of 1.0 mag. and above. Generally most of the quakes which appear in these counts are in the range of 1 to 2 in magnitude.  For Yellowstone Quake Chart, CLICK HERE.

 

Activity this past seven days plummeted to just 1 quake in Yellowstone, down from 10 last week.

 

WEEK’S MOST SIGNIFICANT QUAKES

 

This, and another Baja Plate movement quake of 3.2 mag may have been the key to the sudden rupturing of the San Andreas fault in the Central Coastal Mountains of California.

 

Magnitude 5.9 GULF OF CALIFORNIA

Friday, September 24, 2004 at 14:43:11 UTC

Preliminary Earthquake Report

http://neic.usgs.gov/neis/bulletin/neic_nuaz.html

U.S. Geological Survey, National Earthquake Information Center

Location        28.58N 112.71W

Depth            10.0 kilometers

Region          GULF OF CALIFORNIA

Reference     145 km (90 miles) NNW of Santa Rosalia, Baja Calif. Sur, Mexico

155 km (95 miles) ENE of Guerrero Negro, Baja Calif. Sur, Mexico

180 km (110 miles) WSW of Hermosillo, Sonora, Mexico

1710 km (1060 miles) NW of MEXICO CITY, D.F., Mexico

Remarks        Felt along the coast of Sonora and at Hermosillo, Mexico.

 

Four days later, another Mid Atlantic Rift quake struck about 14 degrees South of the Equator. 

 

 the San Andreas Fault broke lose with this quake and began a huge number of small tremors up and down the San Andreas.

 

 

Magnitude 6.0 CENTRAL CALIFORNIA

Tuesday, September 28, 2004 at 17:15:24 UTC

Preliminary Earthquake Report

http://neic.usgs.gov/neis/bulletin/neic_nybg.htmlU.S. Geological Survey, National Earthquake Information Center

Location        35.81N 120.37W

Depth            7.9 kilometers

Region          CENTRAL CALIFORNIA

Reference     30 km (20 miles) SW of Avenal, California

35 km (20 miles) S of Coalinga, California

35 km (25 miles) ENE of Paso Robles, California

325 km (200 miles) SSE of SACRAMENTO, California

 

 

 

 

 

VOLCANOES

Around the world with the most interesting and relevant volcano stories; briefs on the likely eruptions as well as coverage of on-going activity. For information on current eruptions, see the Southwest Volcano Centre.  Or see “Breaking Volcano Eruption News”.

 

(This week’s observation is not the typical subjective guestimate based on the numbers and data reported by the SWVC, quake data, and other reports).

 

OBSERVABLE WORLD VOLCANIC ACTIVITY IS

 

UP

 

 

THIS PAST SEVEN DAYS:   Etna and Kilauea, the most active volcanoes on Earth, are spouting vigorous lava flows, ash emissions or eruptions are underway at several volcanoes, including in Alaska, Asama in Japan, Manam in Papua New Guinea, Mayon in the Philippines, and others.  Meanwhile, Mauna Loa and Mono Lake Volcanic Field are both giving pre-ignition signals of stream, gas, and magma movements deep.  A large number of microquakes continue at both of these volcanoes.  USGS charts seem to indicate at least 100 per week, but these are most likely incomplete profiles.

 

BUT St Helens rightfully is making the most news at the moment.  After nearly two decades of sleep, this vigorous young Cascade volcano is clearly waking up.  Although it is difficult to get the exact facts straight, apparently a swarm of 1000 to 2000 microquakes per 24 hour period has commenced.

 

 

THIS IS AN IGNITION SIGNAL.  WE ARE PAST PRE-IGNITION.  WE ARE PAST THE CUSP.  THIS VOLCANO IS ABOUT THE ERUPT

 

How much and how vigorously remains unpredictable.  More probable than not during the next 90 days, perhaps with some fits and starts related to Lunar Motion.

 

Most probable is

 

(a) in the next four days, or

(b) the next New Moon – Perigee syzygy Mid-October, or

(c) the New Moon Perigee syzygy of November or December.

 

Here are the SWVC volcanic activity numbers as of September Day 29 2004:

 

7 on restless list (could go on active list at any moment) (up one from last week)

 

49 on alert list (pre-cursors suggesting that activity may begin) (one more than last week)

 

23 on active list (seismic, gas, steam, lava, ash, or explosive activity) (same as last week)

 

Popo gave a 16 puff day yesterday.  Centrapred reports for September Day 29 (17:00 GMT) that “In the last 24 hours the monitoring system of Popocatepetl volcano, recorded only 16 low intensity exhalations accompanied by steam and gas emissions. The other monitored parameters remain without important changes.  At the moment of this report we can not observe the volcano due to the clouds. This morning we could see the volcano with fumarolic activity. In an aerial photograph taken on July 8th by SCT, subsidence is observed in the inner crater; an external lava dome at the bottom of the crater cannot be distinguished."

 

MOST ACTIVE VOLCANOES THIS WEEK

from Volcano Breaking News by Volcanologist John Seach

Volcano Travel:  john@volcanolive.com

Dates in red are posted in Eastern Australian Time (UT + 10 hr)

Mt St Helens Volcano (USA)
46.20 N, 122.18 W, summit elevation 2549 m, stratovolcano
Wednesday 29th September 2004
Seismic activity has remained high at Mt St Helens volcano, with about two small earthquakes occurring every minute. The earthquakes are shallow and located under the lava dome. US Geological Survey personnel have talked with Washington State and County emergency-management officials to discuss hazard and response issues. The current state of unrest at Mt St Helens volcano indicates an explosion is possible at the volcano at any time, which could eject large rocks as far as the crater's edge.
More on Mt St Helens volcano...

Mt St Helens Volcano (USA)
46.20 N, 122.18 W, summit elevation 2549 m, stratovolcano
Wednesday 29th September 2004
Earthquakes have continued to increase beneath the lava dome at Mt St Helens volcano. The largest earthquake over the past 24 hours was 1.5. Initial tests have not detected any magmatic gas release from the volcano.
More on Mt St Helens volcano...

Mt Etna (Italy)
37.73 N, 15.00 E, summit elevation  3350 m, Shield volcano
Tuesday 28th September 2004
The two lava flows commencing at 2620m and 2350m continue to emit lava at a constant rate. The 2620m flow has reached an elevation of ~1700m. The 2350m flow has reached a natural obstacle and is has split into two flows.
More on Mt Etna Volcano...

Kilauea Volcano (Hawaii)
19.425 N, 155.292 W, summit elevation 1222 m, Shield volcano
Tuesday 28th September 2004
An active lava flow continues down the slope towards the coastal plain at Kilauea volcano. The flow has reached about 1300 ft elevation, and is mostly crusted, but there are three incandescent patches visible along the flow. All vents in Pu`u `O`o crater are incandescent, indicating proximity of magma to the surface.
More on Kilauea Volcano... 
Volcanoes of Hawaii... 

Mt St Helens Volcano (USA)
46.20 N, 122.18 W, summit elevation 2549 m, stratovolcano
Monday 27th September 2004
Seismic activity at Mount St. Helens has changed significantly during the past 24 hours. There is an increased likelihood of a hazardous event at the volcano. The character of the earthquake swarm has changed to include more than ten larger earthquakes (Magnitude 2-2.8). The earthquakes suggest the involvement of pressurized fluids (water and steam) or magma. There is an increased probability of explosions from the lava dome if the level of current unrest continues or increases. During such explosions the dome and crater floor are at greatest risk from ballistic projectiles, but the rim of the crater and flanks of the volcano could also be affected. Explosions may produce ash clouds that drift downwind at altitudes up to several thousand feet above the crater rim. Landslides and debris flows from the crater that are large enough to reach the Pumice Plain are also possible. Climbers are forbidden from climbing above 4800 ft on the mountain because of the volcanic unrest. Portions of the Loowit and Truman trails within the Spirit Lake basin have also been closed for fear that an explosion could trigger landslides.
More on Mt St Helens volcano...

Mt St Helens Volcano (USA)
46.20 N, 122.18 W, summit elevation 2549 m, stratovolcano
Sunday 26th September 2004
Hundreds of small earthquakes continue at Mt St Helens volcano. The earthquakes have been recorded since about 2 a.m. Thursday, and were still continuing 36 hours later. The earthquakes are within a half mile of the surface and too small to feel. They are under the lava dome. The current earthquake swarm could increase the chances of small landslides and debris flows in the crater itself and up to several miles north of the crater, in an area known as the Pumice Plain.  The shallow earthquakes likely are the result of cool rains seeping beneath the crater and reaching hot rocks, which creates steam and pressure. They could also be caused by magma rising towards the surface, cracking the dome on ascent. Geologists describe such episodes as "refuelings" of the volcano, but they don't know how much fresh molten rock is needed to trigger a new series of eruptions.
More on Mt St Helens volcano...

Mt Etna (Italy)
37.73 N, 15.00 E, summit elevation  3350 m, Shield volcano
Sunday 26th September 2004
Lava flows continue at Mt Etna volcano. The flow at 2620 m elevation, moved 200 m in 24 hours. The lava flow at 2350 m has reduced, and will meet natural obstacles over the next day, which will slow its progress. There was an increase in volcanic tremor yesterday, to a level double that of the previous day. A magnitude 2.4 earthquake (Richter scale) was centred near the towns of Zafferana, Milo, and Santa Venerina.
More on Mt Etna Volcano...

Kilauea Volcano (Hawaii)
19.425 N, 155.292 W, summit elevation 1222 m, Shield volcano
Sunday 26th September 2004
Active lava flows remain visible at 1600 ft elevation at Kilauea volcano. The flow is about 200 m long, and its terminus is located 600 m west of last month's brief PKK surge that made it to the base of the pali.
More on Kilauea Volcano... 
Volcanoes of Hawaii... 

Mt St Helens Volcano (USA)
46.20 N, 122.18 W, summit elevation 2549 m, stratovolcano
Saturday 25th September 2004
Hundreds of tiny earthquakes have been reported at Mount St. Helens inside the crater, under the lava dome. The swarms of earthquakes could indicate that a small amount of magma is moving into the mountain's crater, cracking the lava dome. The earthquakes are too small to be felt, even close to the mountain, but are being detected by seismometers. At this stage it's not a major hazard, but it would not be a good idea to visit the crater. Mt St Helens erupted in 1980, devastating hundreds of square miles around the mountain.
More on Mt St Helens volcano...

Mayon Volcano (Philippines)
13.257 N, 123.685 E, summit elevation 2462 m,stratovolcano
Saturday 25th September 2004
Crater glow at Mayon Volcano has intensified, indicating that fresh magma is moving towards the surface. Two low-frequency volcanic earthquakes were recorded and Mayon emitted 1,597 tons of sulfur gas last Wednesday, compared to the normal 500 tons. The steady ascent of magma has resulted in a bulging of the volcano as measured at three locations around the mountain.
More on Mayon volcano...

Asama Volcano (Japan) 
36.40 N, 138.53 E, summit elevation 2560 m, complex volcano 
Thursday 23rd September 2004 
Mt Asama erupted today at 7:44pm (local time), creating sticky rainfall containing volcanic ash. The eruption was accompanied by volcanic tremor and shook the resort town of Karuizawa, about 10 km away. 
More on Asama volcano... 

Mt Etna (Italy)
37.73 N, 15.00 E, summit elevation  3350 m, Shield volcano
Thursday 23rd September 2004
No great change on the emissions of lava from the effusive mouths. The 2620m flow of lava is identical to the observations of yesterday with emission of 4 cubic m/s. The 2350m flow is less, with emission of 0.5 cubic m/s. A tremor of magnitude 2.0 was recorded at Mt Etna.
More on Mt Etna Volcano...

Manam Volcano (Papua New Guinea)
4.10 S, 145.06 E, summit elevation 1807 m, Stratovolcano
Wednesday 22nd September 2004
A pilot reported ash plume to 10,000 ft moving west today at 0345 hr (UT). Mild eruptive activity has occurred at Manam volcano during 2004.
More on Manam volcano...

Mt Etna (Italy)
37.73 N, 15.00 E, summit elevation  3350 m, Shield volcano
Wednesday 22nd September 2004
The flow of lava from the effusive mouths in the Valle del Bove at 2620m and 2350m, is 4 cubic m/sec. The front of the 2620m flow is at 1740m, moving 210m in 24 hours. The front of the 2350m flow is at 2100m elevation, moving 250m in 24 hours.
More on Mt Etna Volcano...

 

 

 

 

 

 

Standing Assessment:  Likely, it is fair to conclude that the not-so-invisible Black Arts Nation, from HAARP to the Navy, to the Bush/Ashcroft prisons in Iraq/Afghanistan and Cuba, not to mention many other technologies, areas, and programs, are far out of ethical, moral, constitutional, and treaty control, as has been widely feared. 

 

 

BLACK ARTS NATION

 

STAY TUNED.  We are just on the front edge of “the outing”….

 

 

What is truly bazaar about mass opinion at this current time in the U.S. is its near complete inversion.  Both Kerry and Bush are seen by a substantial portion of the public, perhaps even a majority of the public, as VERY NEARLY THE OPPOSITE OF WHO THEY REALLY ARE.  This greatly benefits Bush, it greatly diminishes Kerry. What is even more bazaar is the strength and persistence of the emotional and mental blinders which are maintaining the illusions which create the inversion. No matter what is presented now on TV, NOTHING SEEMS TO DENT THE ILLUSION.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

ECONOMY WATCH 

 

NO CHANGE FROM LAST WEEK

 

MAJOR FORECAST REVISION

 

AS PREVIOUSLY PREDICTED:  All economic indicators for July were down and we are not far from the Ides of September, by which we will know the most important indicators. NOW FORGET THE INDICATORS.

 

U.S. ECONOMY WILL GROW FOR AT LEAST A FEW MORE MONTHS

 

THERE ARE STILL NO SIGNS OF A GENERAL RECOVERY, THERE HAVE BEEN MANY GROWING SIGNS OF A RECESSION. AND

 

THERE IS CLEAR EVIDENCE OF A STAGFLATION DYNAMIC SETTING (RISING PRICES WITH NO GROWTH).

 

BUT

 

The fickle finger of fate has intervened and is creating sudden shifts which will drive sudden expansion and huge demand and production increases in certain sectors, specifically those related to construction and war.

 

Many of the authorized expenditures of the Bush War Machine for the Iraqi Expedition have yet to be spent.  Money which should have been spent in the range of tens of billions has yet to be spent.  NOW WITH THE INCREASING LOSS OF CONTROL IN IRAQ, the U.S. Military and occupation commands are going to have to suddenly shift operations and enormous sums are likely to be spent in the beginning of an expansion of military operations.  This is likely to produce some stimulation of the economy during the months ahead.

 

BUT EVEN MORE SIGNIFICANT:  The Quadruple Whammy of Charles, Francis, Ivan, and Jeanne has caused ENORMOUS DAMAGE.  The damage is bad news, of course, for those who lost.  But it is good news for those who build things. There is going to be more demand for new construction in the Southeastern portion of the U.S., something in the range of $30 billion, all financed by Insurance Claims and Government Assurance Programs.

 

This will provide a substantial stimulation of the U.S. economy.  Moribund Money tied up in paper assets will be liquefied to flow through several hands in a sudden spiral of new production and new consumption.

 

This will tend to soften the stock markets because insurance companies will need to sell off a lot of stock.

 

The demand for construction and repair will be so great that a great many people will have to wait a year or more to rebuild.  People and companies all over the U.S. will flow into the Southeast to meet the demand. Already, national databases for the construction industry are advertising for blue collar people to come to work in six month contracts at up to $35/hour plus per diem, plus health benefits.

 

Ironically, the tax give away to the wealthy did not work very well to expand jobs, but the Hurricanes will…

 

All this of course does little to save the economy from the 25 year depression cycle.  It just gives the current cycle a little more life.  Accordingly, the final decline will come a bit more precipitously when it comes.  It may not come until 2006.

 

FOR THE LASTEST DETAILED DISCUSSION

 

See the Earth Changes Bulletin Update Of July 21, 2004

 

FOR THE STAND PAT ECONOMIC PREDICTION FOR THIS YEAR,

 

 See the Earth Changes Bulletin Update Of May 12 2004

 

GENERAL PREDICTION DJI AVERAGES

 

 

The DJI finished September Day 29 at 10,136.24 UP about $25 from last Wednesday at 10,109.18. 

 

Is this the top of the bubble?

 

I suspect it is very close to it.  If may chop up and down 100 points either way for the next few weeks.   Despite the recent price surge in oil, prices should drop in October and allow the bubble to inflate.   The market will get over its “interest rate increase” adjustment in a couple of weeks or less.  So these things will firm up the bubble.

 

But news on the political and war fronts, AIN’T VERY GOOD. Iraq recovery has essentially collapsed. Real war is heating up.  Bush’s support is crumbling and he couldn’t do a deal internationally if his life depended upon.

 

AS PREVIOUSLY PREDICTED:  Don’t wait for Christmas Retail Sales…they will be disappointing, depress the stock values, and lead into the final economic collapse.  When the DJI is above 10,000, liquidate anything you have in all such equities anywhere.  The DJI MAY HIT 10,500 AGAIN during late September but DON’T COUNT ON IT.  And if it does, it will be only a signal spike which will break the market for many months, if not many years.

 

FOR THE LAST CURRENT DETAILED DISCUSSIONS SEE:

See the Earth Changes Bulletin Update Of July 21, 2004

 

EURO WATCH 

 

The dollar closed today at 0.8113 down a little less than HALF of a cent from 0.8155 per euro a week ago.

 

“As oil goes up, the dollar will tend also to go down against the Euro.”

 

ONCE AGAIN: Both occurred together this week in synchronicity.

 

REVISION OF PREDICTION ONCE AGAIN:  “The overall erosion is likely to slowly continue through the year.  It may bottom at $0.70 per euro by the end of 2004.”  The international inflation of the dollar, which is being forced by international dynamics, is being made by revaluing the dollar against the barrel of oil and other basic major commodities.  At the moment, and so far this year, there is very little relative movement vis a vis the Euro. 

 

AS PREVIOUSLY REPORTED: Major efforts are being made right now to reduce the price of oil below $40/barrel. Production is being expanded everywhere it can be.  Saudi Arabia is trying to deliver the goods at lower prices to maintain Bush in power.

 

So far, the Saudi’s have not been very successful.  The price of oil is high because supply is constrained by weather, politics, the Tragedy in Iraq, unrest in Nigeria. and a huge demand in Asia.

 

MUST READ:  “The Dollar Panics” in “The Coming Economic Collapse of 2006”, which lays out the dynamics of what is happening

 

 

 

 

 

SURVIVAL WATCH

 

FOOD WATCH

 

For latest info, see the Earth Changes Bulletin Update as of  July 7, 2004

 

JOB WATCH

 

Any aspect of the construction and home products industry is hot.

 

 

 

SIGN OF THE TIMES: Ken Lay, who is now widely described as the biggest corporate swindler of all time, is still scott free. (ONE OF THE WORST ECONOMIC TERRORISTS OF ALL TIME).  But now finally after waiting for two or so years, Lay has been indicted.  Notice the timing, near the end of the first term of the Bush Administration. At this time I will hazard the guess that he will be pardoned by Bush during the final days of his administration, probably December of this year.  ANOTHER NEARLY EQUAL SIGN OF THE TIMES:  The lawyers who have been settling the Enron collapse for all parties, are billing the remaining net assets of Enron for approximately $1 billion for their services.  This is a new heavenly-ordained definition for the term Chutzpah.  I CALL IT CLASS ECONOMIC TERRORISM.

 

POLITICAL WATCH

For general overview on the Tragedy in Iraq and the Bureau-Political Civil War in Washington DC, I highly recommend Tom Dispatch.

 

For general background:  see Earth Changes Bulletin Update As Of July 7 2004

 

THE WORLD AWAITS THE DEPARTURE OF THE BUSH REGIME.  Bush’s reception at the U.N. over a week ago was chilly to say the least.  The U.N. Secretary General set the tone a week or so in advance by reminding everyone, in an understated way typical of diplomats, that the U.S. invasion of Iraq was illegal under international law and that thus the U.S. President would speak to the U.S. Assembly as a rogue-nation.

 

One would wish that the Presidential Debates, beginning with the debate on November 30 would prove helpful in revealing who both men really are. But the debates are so “contrived” in every aspect of their organization and conduct, they have rightfully drawn the ridicule of much of the press.  The event will be largely another “illusion”, a Kenny Boy cut-out paper doll version of make-believe reality.

 

I checked out the debate to be hosted by Arizona State University on October 13.  I was thinking of attempting to crash the party as a journalist, since those are the ONLY seats which are available except for 500 student seats which will be given away by lottery.  But after seeing all the stipulations, I abandoned the idea.  Some $2 million will be spent by Arizona taxpayers for a largely contrived event which is simply not worth such effort.  If the politicians insist on such bogousity, the entire thing should be conducted in Washington DC, which is the capital of bogousity, or in Hollywood, where everything is fake upfront.

 

The odds are that Kerry is too intelligent to get that he will not connect very well with the undecideds, who will not reason, indeed cannot reason very well, through this debate.  I predict very little impact for these debates and I predict that both sides will walk away proclaiming victory.  More or less, Bush will not lose much from these debates, but there is a chance that the in-person comparison between the minds and behaviors of these two candidates in the same space may rebound slightly favorably to Kerry.  Bush’s obfuscation of Kerry will tend to melt and holes will be punched into his swaggering illusion of mastery of all he surveys.

 

But the problem for Kerry, which the Democrats still have no effective way yet to solve, is that Bush will lie his ass off making claims which are totally preposterous.  Thus he will still manage to walk away looking confidently like a winner who knows his stuff.  And half the country will continue to follow their fast-talking favorite Western Actor, old Wartime Tex, who at least looks the part for whipping Iraq.

 

AS PREVIOUSLY REPORTED:  It is highly likely that the most decisive ammunition against the Imperial Faction is yet to be lobbed….The sense of moral outrage is still building……people are waiting for the right timing……I have this feeling that fireworks will emerge in October. 

 

AS PREVIOUSLY OBSERVED: Bush remains in every way an “untouchable” international pariah such as has not been seen since the days of Stalin. The problem is the lying. To touch this tar baby, one risks becoming befouled with the lies from even the barest minimum of association.  WHAT WILL HAPPEN NEXT IS ANYONE’S GUESS. American politics has never been so unpredictable. Doubtless the Bush Administration and virtually the entire Imperial Faction is or will be caught up in legal issues and press controversies which will pile higher and higher.  To counter the attacks and legal moves against them, the Bush-iters will use every sorcery they can contrive to conceal everything which is not nailed down in plain site in front of the New York Times.  They will even chip away at that late at night.   They will use Saddam Hussein in every way possible to rationalize their existence, deeds, and legitimacy to be re-elected.  Every lie and form of bigotry they have ever used will be retread to denigrate Kerry, Edwards, Nader, and every other candidate for lower office.  The meltdown of U.S. politics into a world-class cesspool manipulated by a sordid class of third rate sorcerers will be nearly complete.

 

BUT PERHAPS THIS IS JUST AN ANNEALING PROCESS, THE TIME OF THE EXPOSIING AND BURNING AWAY OF THE CRAP.  PERHAPS WE ARE NOW FINALLY FIGHTING IN ONE OF THE LAST CHAPTERS IN THE STRUGGLE FOR THE SOUL OF  AMERICA WHICH BEGAN ON THE STREETS OF BERKELEY WITH THE FREE SPEECH MOVEMENT AND THE REALIZATION THAT THE VIETNAM WAR WAS A HIDDEOUS MISTAKE.

 

The only question now is, will enough wake by November 2, or will it take another four years of economic, social, and political devastation in the U.S. to draw up enough people into a higher state of awareness?

 

Many who will the change are now pessimistic. Despite a year of exposing the grave crimes of the Imperial Faction and the incompetence of their President, a near majority of Americans refuse to believe that conditions have become so corrupt.  They insist on drawing their blinders more tightly around their favorite illusions.

 

For a time yet, the truth may remain an orphan in the street.

 

 

 

 

 

A new media now arrives, floating down the river Iway, and with it comes a new consciousness of the world and the lies which have driven so much of the past 50 years….

 

From this, the future will arise as the old world slowly collapses.

 

All else is fluid, in transition. Thank God Almighty!

 

 

THE STRATEGIC SITUATIONFinal Synopsis
For predictions related to the mess in Palestine, the Middle East, and the Bush political era.

 

NO CHANGE THIS WEEK - AS PREVIOUSLY REPORTED:

 

CONDITIONS IN IRAQ AND THE MIDDLE EAST

ARE IN EXTREME CRISIS

 

The entire world continues to witness the American impasse in Iraq.  American policy and management are now clearly on trajectory to a catastrophic loss.

 

As reported in prior months:  Since May 2004 it has been obvious that the U.S. Military was adrift without a rudder AND MISSING ITS PADDLES whilst attempting a turn-around far up the creek named Iraq. 

 

 

U.S. media and internet sources are reporting widely that the Pentagon is planning a major counter-offensive against the insurgents who are active in several cities. That of course is Rumsfeld’s style.  From shock and awe to Abu Ghraib, it should be clear that Donald Rumsfeld has little sense of leadership, though he appears fascinated by dictat and brutality by jackboots.

 

A major offensive in the dense urban areas will kill and main countless numbers of people whom Donald Rumsfeld has arrogantly refused to count since the beginning of his illegal war.

 

A major offensive inside urban zones with major losses of life will cause an even greater world polarization against the u.s. and lead directly to a major military loss in Iraq sometime in 2005.

 

Maintaining order must be done with intelligence and finesse, not jet bombers and tanks.

 

During this September there has been another major increase in the level of violence.  The insurgency is now a widespread civil war involving some 20,000 armed insurgents (estimated by various press sources) conducting hundreds of hit and run operations every day.  The levels of violence are so bad, the mercantile class is beginning to close their shops again. People everywhere are losing the ability to function.  There is no freedom nor security in Iraq, just massive fear.  People and sources from outside the U.S. who do not work with American media are reporting that the level of problems in Iraq is much higher than Americans are being told by their press.

 

This trendline spells defeat for the Americans during the next 120 days.  It is quite apparent that the insurgency and Alqaeda are hell bent to defeat the proposed elections in January 2005.  For Alqaeda, this means that they will keep the killing fields open for a longer period of time.  They will keep the U.S. mired hopelessly in a non-win condition while terrorists jab the Bull with a succession of lances to bleed it dry in the sands of the desert.

 

Under existing conditions and U.S. military management, Osama Bin Laden knows that it is just a matter of time before the U.S. is forced to withdraw its troops.  If he can be the agent which forces the withdrawal, he will a huge victory and move the entire Middle East in his direction.   Accordingly it is extremely important to deny him this victory.  But a bellicose, aggressive American Bull rampaging ever harder in the Middle East IS NOT THE WAY TO BLOCK OSAMA’S VICTORY.  IT IS THE ONE SURE ROAD TO TOTAL DEFEAT.

 

Soon the U.S. will be at the LBJ Moment Of History.  The LBJ Moment was in 1968 when he realized that both he and the establishment were wrong about Vietnam, that he had lost control.  He decided not to deal with it and withdrew from office, allowing someone else to be elected President.

 

We won’t replay that same scenario under Bush.  This time the entire nation will be in LBJ’s Moment.  The entire nation is coming to a moment when they are going to have to decide whether to convert the U.S. into a massive war mobilization (which many in Washington DC have made plain that want) or to turn course abruptly to create peace.

 

 

HERE IS THE MAIN HOPE OUT OF THIS STRATEGIC IMPASSE:

 

AN AUTHENTIC ISLAMIC MORAL AUTHORITY IS ARISING AND IS BEGINNING TO FORGE A COALITION TO UNIFY IRAQ AND BRING CIRCUMSTANCES TO THE POINT WHERE THE AMERICANS CAN BE ASKED TO LEAVE.  QUICKLY. 

 

THE ARRANGEMENTS WILL BE FORGED BY JANUARY.  MORE PROBABLE THAN NOT, THE MULLAHS WILL ARRANGE THE ELECTION OF A GOVERNMENT WHICH ASSERTS ITS SOVEREIGNTY AND ASKS THE U.S. TO LEAVE VIRTUALLY IMMEDIATELY.

 

PASS THE WORD: THIS IS HOW IT WILL END IN IRAQ, NEITHER BY BUSH NOR BY KERRY. 

 

STAND PAT ON  the latest dossier, see the Earth Changes Bulletin Update as of  July 7, 2004

Michael Wells Mandeville,
The Hills of Arizona USA at mwman@earthlink.net
Master Website Index is at: http://www.michaelmandeville.com

Author of  several books, including: "Return of the Phoenix" at
http://www.michaelmandeville.com/phoenix/phoenix.htm
and "The Coming Economic Collapse of 2006" at
http://www.michaelmandeville.com/calendar/collapse2006.htm
_________________________________________________
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