PHOENIX FIVE EARTH CHANGES BULLETIN

Monitoring The Changes In The Earth

edited by Michael Wells Mandeville copyright September Day 22 2004

                                                                                                             

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Please Note:  This Bulletin is conceived as a System.  It is still in an early stage of evolution.  We intend to progressively link into this synopsis system all of the major news feeds of Planet Earth which articulate aspects of the profound historical Change In The Earth which is underway.

 

 

 

Earth Changes Bulletin Update As Of September 22 2004

You have heard of the Weather Report?  Here exclusively is this week’s  "Earth Report" - a short review of the “big picture” about how the dynamic changes in the Sun and the Earth are effecting our lives more and more intensely, with the latest prognostications and predictions for weathermen, farmers, investors, businessmen, and every man.

 

You may click here for the full text of the Earth Changes Bulletin Update for this week, or use this  URL

 

http://www.michaelmandeville.com/earthmonitor/ecbulletins/2004/ecb_Sept_22_04.htm

 

IGNORE THE TOUTATIS ASTEROID SCARE – No credible scientific source is reporting anything close to a close call.  It is passing by us at over four Lunar distances in a few days.  NASA reports that the orbit is predictable, which means it is stable.  NASA and the astronomy buffs around the world are highly competitive and all of them have a great self-interest in being the first to find “provocative news”.  If there was anything closer with Toutatis, it would be raging news in serious venues. As it is, the entire scare is based on “psychic sources”, most likely originated by the Billy Meier group.  My prediction, Billy Meier will be proven wrong.

 

On the geophysical front,  FOR THIS AMAZING GLOBAL WARMING YEAR, sunspots have momentarily plunged to 33, leaving weather conditions with very little solar energization. Storms are now muting out their intensify.  No El Nino trend is apparent but an anomalous huge patch of warming water North of  Hawaii is now growing and will force Fall weather in North America into chaotic, unpredictable patterns.  Alaska’s drought is most likely over for at least this year. Meanwhile, Earth’s tectonics remain calm.  Volcanism remains at last week’s level and quake activity was quite subdued, making today’s Perigee Moon quite uneventful.  Only three small shape-shifter quakes struck in the Great Rifts of the ocean bottoms this past week.  But, of great interest for California, 500 microquakes began to swarm this past several days near Mono Lake, east of Yosemite Valley on the Nevada border.  This clearly heralds the rising of magma and during the next 120 days this could lead to an eruption. Watch for 300 to 600 microquakes per day in the area, that is the defining signal.

 

On the geopolitical front, the good news is that the destruction caused by the three hurricanes which struck the Southeastern U.S. will stay the onset of recession for several months.  Something like $30 billion in insurance premiums will be converted into liquid cash floating through the economy to rebuild.  As well, some $10 billion or more of money unspent for the Tragedy in Iraq will most likely now be hurriedly spent.  All this will stimulate well over $100 billion in new economic activity.  The bad news is that, as everyone now knows, the crisis in Iraq has reached critical condition. The United States has lost control of the Iraqi street and, as was pointedly made clear at the U.N., not a single government in the world is going to help. Even the Brits are finally starting to bail out and are going to start withdrawing Iraqi street with its existing force levels.    Civil war is escalating and may succeed by January in disrupting elections to such an extent that they cannot be held. With over 1000 medical evacuees in august, the U.S. is approaching 1% per month in total casualties. No solution is in sight, but a huge anti-war march in October during the time when Rumsfeld is planning a major counter-offensive against the Iraqi insurgents, is sure to provide an awesomely radicalizing Fall.

 

On the sermonizing front:  A RADICALLY NEW STRATEGIC APPROACH BY AN ASTUTE LEADER IS IMMEDIATELY NECESSARY TO AVERT FURTHER TRAGEDY.  The one sure method for destroying the terrorist and insurgency movements is to help the Islamic community forge a common front to oppose both the crudities of western interference and the barbarism of the jihadists and Baathists.  If figures like Al Sistani can rise to the occasion, they are most likely to be the ones who are able to resolve the situation into peaceful conditions  and “arrange” the abrupt withdrawal of American troops. Since it is clear that the U.S. is completely incompetent to rebuild Iraq or to indulge its fantasies of Imperial domination through a half-baked military expedition, the more quickly Islamic forces can arrange the withdrawal of American forces, THE BETTER.  I fail to see any other solution.

 

Go to detailed synopsis…

 

This hidden column on the right  is available for links, banners, and icons of Earth Changes Bulletin subscribers who have made their annual donation.  Inquire by sending query for exact procedure by sending a REPLY to the Earth Changes Bulletin weekly email update.  YOU MUST HAVE BEEN SUBSCRIBED FOR AT LEAST 30 DAYS TO QUALIFY (or a previous subscriber).. 

 

NOTES

Grayed items are not yet operational

 

PREVIOUS
WEEKLY

UPDATES

 

September 22, 2004

September 15, 2004

September 8, 2004

September 1, 2004

August 25, 2004

August 18, 2004

August 11, 2004

July 28, 2004

July 21, 2004

July 14, 2004

July 7, 2004

June 30, 2004

June 23, 2004

June 16, 2004

June 9, 2004

June 2, 2004

May 26, 2004

May 19, 2004

May 12, 2004

 

 

Program Thesis:

What are we trying to do with the Earth Changes Bulletin?

Most news media do not handle technical and scientific subjects like geology and earth sciences very well.  They don't understand the causes and effects of activities in the Sun and Earth.  Accordingly, they often do not understand if, when, how, why to report earthquakes, volcanic activity, global warming effects  The treatment often sounds absent-minded, poorly qualified, and frequently contains various technical errors.  Seldom is the treatment entertaining and genuinely educational.

Based on new scientific principles which have emerged during the past thirty years, many of the dynamic activities of the Sun and Earth can be linked together to see how a range of effects are linked together.  This makes it possible to paint "the big picture" into a perspective which explains many diverse events and processes, especially climate and weather patterns such as global warming and El Nino. From the "big picture", long range predictions can be made for weeks and even months ahead.  The result is sophisticated cutting-edge information which is objective, balanced, astute, relevant, and can be easily seen and appreciated by lay audiences.  The perspective is generally global, seldom parochial. For the framework of concepts, terms, and current conditions which are used or described in the these Bulletins, see the Earth Changes 2003 Almanac Calendar.

 

To see the internet resources which are used to prepare this Update, take a look at the Earth Monitor front page - http://www.michaelmandeville.com/earthmonitor/

 

 

 

 

SPONSORING:

THE COMING ECONOMIC COLLAPSE OF 2006, which puts today, tomorrow, and the trends together into the Cayce 25 year economic cycle which will “bottom” in 2006/2007.  Click here to download

 

THIS BOOK STILL COOKS AND IT WILL COOK THE POLITICIANS AND THE ECONOMY ALL THE WAY THROUGH TO 2008:  This synthesis is far ahead of the daily digests in all halls of the internet media: so far (since may 2003) the track record on this set of predictions for 2003-2008 is running 100 per cent.  If you have not purchased this book, you will remain ignorant of the main dynamics which are rapidly changing everything. 

 

 

LATEST UPDATE NOTE AS OF SEPTEMBER 22, 2004: 

Hold to the course laid out months ago.  We are more or less, on the DJI, within 200 points of the peak of the economic bubble.  We may already be past it as the odor of regime change in the U.S. is becoming quite strong.  The equity markets are not firming up. Oil prices should be noticeably down.  The main proviso in all things is “The October Surprise”.  This is such a strong psychic impression among a great many, I will now be surprised if there is NOT an “October Surprise”.  Since the October surprise is widely expected to be highly negative, it most likely will influence all markets negatively.

 

LATEST UPDATE NOTE AS OF SEPTEMBER 1, 2004: 

All projections are on track.  This month and next more probable than not are the last months of the last bubble in this 25 year leg of the long term economic cycle.  When equities begin to slide this Fall, they will hunt up and down sporadically as the chaos deepens through 2005.  Absolute Bottom will be found in 2006 or in 2007 and a very slow increase (not driven by Bull speculation) will probably begin to manifest in 2008.  In the interim period, most of the “Fortune 500” will disappear in their current form and their remnants will reappear as vastly different companies..

 

 

 

 

 

 

HOUSEKEEPING

 

MANDEVILLE IS ON THE RADIO EVERY WEDNESDAY WITH

Alex Merklinger (Millennium Radio) show at 6 PM Arizona Time (also 6 PM Pacific Daylight Saving Time).   Regular Weekly Update For The Earth Changes Bulletin.  To find Iway archives and stations, see Millennium Radio Network

 

 

 

Begin Synopsis

 

 As stated in the “Coming Economic Collapse of 2006”, the nature of human politics reflects the communication abilities of the human species.  As we transform the media, as we have been on the Iway, we will transform human politics and the entire Earth.  Making the way for the New Earth is operationally equivalent to making a new Media on the Iway. Not that that is all that there is to it.  Not by a long shot…but IT IS one of the essentials we need to dissolve the blockages and dance around the tyrannies.

 

 

SPIRITUAL WATCH

How to converge and express the spirit of mass transformation into manifestation, HOW to be, IS the question. How to do is the praxis of the time.  Examining this question, probing it, is the chief trendline of this year.

A great turning towards peace is underway in the hearts and minds of a great mass of humanity, EVEN AS the merchants of dominance, hate,  revenge, and violence appear to crow even more loudly on the world stage or can be found eagerly arranging a major increase in the tempo of bomb explosions to murder and maime even more people.   A consciousness is gathering greater focus to dissolve away the entire Bush-Alqaeda continuum of absolutism and militarism and replace its brutalities with profound movement en masse towards peaceful solutions.

 

Look for it.  Greet it.  Nourish it with love.

 

BREATH FREE. Let go of everything which is disturbed, distorted, or weird.  Let go of everything which is forced, contrived, hidden, manipulative, and/or constrictive. Keep flowing with the rising tide of spiritual energies which are filling many thirsty souls.  The old patterns are falling away.  Transition continues. Embrace new relationships which are trying to form in your life if they are honest and straightforward and provide a new openness. Forget the fears of the unknown, embrace all that which lifts your life into the light of a greater understanding and relationship with the all.

 

EVERYTHING IS WORKING OUT DIFFERENTLY THAN PEOPLE ARE CURRENTLY FEARING OR PROJECTING.  IT WILL CONTINUE TO BE SO.  In a short while, some will come forth giving witness to a great energy which has come into their lives, literally, as if the hand of God was upon them.  This is becoming more and more apparent and these words will have greater meaning by the end of the year.

 

 

 

The “Great Purification” predicted by the Hopi, Maya, Q’ero, and many others continues.  How amazing that these ancient oral traditions could tune into last year and this one to advise us that this was a period of profound historical turning involving

The Great Purification

of the Earth? For additional discussion, see the commentary of May 19, 2004 and the commentary of June 16, 2004.

 

THE NEW BASIS IS GESTATING….

THE time to link the spiritual communities of the Earth. The Whole Earth. IT HAS BECOME URGENT TO LINK THE SPIRITUAL COMMUNITIES WITHIN A BROAD MOVEMENT WHICH PROVIDES NEW CURRENTS OF SPIRITUAL LEADERSHIP.

 

 

FOR THE MOST PART: Steady as she goes. A slow acceleration in the shifting of the poles has been underway for perhaps the past 100 years and the last three decades has shown an increase in the rate of acceleration.  This has appeared to accelerate even more during the past decade.

 

 

POLAR MOTION

What is happening to the motion of the Earth. For the overall summary of the status of polar motion CLICK HERE.  To see the current graphs of polar motion, CLICK HERE. Scroll down the page until you get to the black and white graphs with show the x and y coordinates of the North Spin Axis on two separate graphs.

 

North Spin Axis appears to moving fairly normally ..

 

AS OBSERVED IN PRIOR WEEKS:  We have passed the “Y Max” last week. Y Max is the point in the spiral track of the North Spin Axis when it is moving as far to the left on the XY chart of polar motion which is maintained by the IERS agency in France.  “Y Max” is where the North Spin Axis is titled as far as it can go towards North America down Longitude West 90.   The motion towards “Y Max” may have caused the increased movement of the North American Tectonic Plate to produce the interesting quake activity of the previous weeks.

 

http://maia.usno.navy.mil/xplot2.gif

 

http://maia.usno.navy.mil/yplot2.gif

 

 

 

 

MAGNETIC POLES – SHIFTING

What is happening to the magnetic fields of the Earth.  No real change during the past year:  a magnetic pole shift is not something to be very concerned about within this decade at least.

 

Currently, there is little of note.  Despite many claims, there are no apparent trends which will hold up to historical analysis of many different regions of the Earth.

 

 

 

 

Asteroids

As of June 04,

NASA’S

ESTIMATE:

“Potentially Hazardous Asteroids (PHAs) are space rocks larger than approximately 100m that can come closer to Earth than 0.05 AU. None of the known PHAs  (asteroids) are on a collision course with our planet, although astronomers are finding new ones all the time.”

 

 

PLANETS & ALIGNMENTS
(all time coordinates here and elsewhere are in UTC unless otherwise noted, dates for planetary alignments are derived from Home Planet Software using PC graphics, due to limitations of software and graphics display, actual timing may be off as much as three days, for scientific work, use a professional ephemeris for exact dates).  For background and the current information on planetary alignments go to the Earth Changes Almanac Calendar.  The Almanac lays out the planets and the lunar phases for entire year in advance to allow you to find the best and worst periods of weather, earthquake activity, ethereal “lunar” influences, etc.  

 

Daily Planet – click here for sheer artistic pleasure

Every day John Walker’s  (Home Planet Software) computer creates a new image of  hypothetical habitable planet, just one every day for the estimated 2 billion potential habitable planets in our Galaxy, which the Egyptians more or less named Nun, a mother Goddess from which all life flows.  Euro people nursery tales converted the name into the Milky Way.  http://www.fourmilab.ch/terranova/terranovag.html

 

Moon Perigee/Apogee/Phase Data  - click here to be always up to date

Earth/Moon Viewer by John Walker
http://www.fourmilab.ch/earthview/pacalc.html


Daily Solar System – click here to view Planet Alignments

The Home Planet software computes in real time the exact relative positions of the planets.  Go here to view today’s image of the solar system as seen from a heliocentric view (the sun in the center, you looking at the entire solar system as if it were a big pancake.  You can set any date and time.  You should generally ask the form to give you the “equal orbits” view so you can see all the planets.

http://www.fourmilab.ch/cgi-bin/uncgi/Solar

 

LUNAR PERIGEE/APOGEE/PHASE TABLE FOR Sept. 2004

 

                                             Distance

Perigee         22-Sep 21:13    369599 km        F-5d15h

Full               28-Sep 13:09               

Apogee         5-Oct    22:11    404326 km        F+7d 9h

 

For the remainder of 2004, see the August 25 EC Update

 

TODAY’S MOON

 

We are in Lunation #1011 with the next Full Moon on September 28 at 13:09 UTC.  As of September Day 22, the Moon this day is now deep in its South Node (South of the Equator 8 days past the New Moon.  It is now approximately 363,700 KM from the Earth. It is 68% of the Full Moon (visibility or phase). 

 

The Perigee is TODAY Sept 22 about 5 and a half days before the next Full Moon.

 

SEISMIC SYZYGY WINDOWS

 

We entered the seismic window for the Perigee about September 19 and we will leave it once again on September 25.  Seismic activity should be peaking now and decrease slowly until about September 26 and then bob up again for the Full Moon Syzygy, which will end about September 30. September’s seismic activity should be somewhat weaker over all than August’s.

 

The next two strongest seismic syzygies for 2004 will be the New Moon of November 12 (Perigee within less than two days) and December 12 (Perigee within 20 hours).

 

For describing the peak danger periods for the most damaging earthquakes. these Perigee syzygies I will define arbitrarily as

 

November 10 – November 16

 

December 10 – December 15

 

Jim Berkland, the originator of using syzygy to define the most active periods of seismic activity has a more complex method for computing dates and you may want to use his methods for greater precision.  For details see the Syzygy website  

 

(Perigee = the Moon’s closest approach to the Earth during its monthly orbit which increases gravitational influence of the Moon by as much as 15%; Apogee = the Moon’s greatest distance from the Earth during its monthly orbit).   (Berkland has a more complex formula for syzygy and his dates are often different.)  For details see the Syzygy website.

 

THE NEXT PLANETARY ALIGNMENTS

For any “Home Planet Software” charts of the planets which are shown here or through URLS which are provided on this page, you can decipher which planet is which by counting the orbital rings if you do not know the signs which denote the planets. Mercury is 1 closest to the Sun, Venus is 2, Earth is 3, Mars is 4, Jupiter is 5, Saturn is 6, Uranus is 7, Neptune is 8, Pluto is 9, and both Planet X and Nibiru are bogus.

 

We are in between planetary alignments at the current time.  The next set begins about September 25 and ends about October 3.  The next group of alignments involves Mercury aligning with Mar and Jupiter as all three line up in a very close alignment.  This would produce quite a bit of activity on the sun.

 

LIST OF ALIGNMENTS THROUGH SEPTEMBER 2004

 

September 8, 2004

Mercury | Venus
Most of the planets in general now begin breaking apart widely, the "Summer Knot" become  untied. From About September 10 onwards,  Mars and Jupiter will be in a slow forming virtual alignment

***September 28, 2004

***Mars is in near alignment with Jupiter as Mercury catches up to form a nearly a straight alignment with Mercury, within 5 degrees, with all other planets widely dispersed
***October 1, 2004

***Mercury | Mars | Jupiter perfected

 

PLANETARY ALIGNMENTS FOR THE NEXT 10 MONTHS

For the next 10 months, four particular periods stand out for their potential to induce major reactions in the solar atmosphere and pull out huge ionic storms, high sunspot counts, and major effects on the Earth’s weather.

 

The Triple Whammy September Surprise September 28, 2004 - October 1, 2004

 

Mercury | Mars | Jupiter in a triple alignment

Spots peak about the Fall Equinox and Weather turns into chaos by about October 1, followed by extreme Fall flooding by the middle of October in the usual places.

 

The Aphelion Six Way Cluster Bomb

 

At or near the Earth’s Apogee (closest approach to the Sun) Mercury will once again align progressively with the inner planets during a 30 day period.  Expect an INTENSELY STORMY WINTER.

December 30, 2004  Mercury | Jupiter
Venus and Mars still close and Earth near Saturn alignment
January 13, 2005  Mercury & Mars close couple to
Venus | Pluto and Earth | Saturn
January 27, 2005  Mercury | Venus with Pluto close couple

 

The Spring Grand Alignment

Jupiter | Earth | Mercury | Sun | Venus

 

Beginning by about March 7, at least major peaks in the sunspot count should produce three major waves of early Spring storm fronts.  The largest peak should form up about the Spring Equinox and the largest storm front should blow in about the time of the Grand Alignment

 

March 14, 2005  Mercury | Saturn
Spring Alignments begin in three main spirals
March 21,2005  Mars | Pluto with a spiral forming in
Mercury | Earth | Jupiter and another in Venus | Uranus
March 30, 2005 Jupiter | Earth | Mercury | Sun | Venus
form a virtual straight line through the solar system with Mars and Pluto still closely coupled. Observers on Earth will only be able to physically see Jupiter rising on the Eastern horizon just after sunset and Saturn close to the Mid-heavens in the Western half of the sky. In the very early morning Mars and Uranus visible

 

Summer Ping Pong

 

June 7, 2005  Venus | Saturn with Mercury moving up in close alignment, followed on June 10 , 2005 with Mercury forming a triplet with Venus and Saturn as Earth couples with Pluto and
Mars | Neptune.  The timing of these alignments between these planets is not exact, the electromagnetic balances of the solar system will shift in a complex way, probably producing a number of ups and downs.

 

 

 

 

 

 

PLANET WATCHING  

For background and the current information on observable planets.

 

 

 

 

 

SUNSPOTS

The events in the solar atmosphere which impact weather and climate patterns, the magnetic field and auroras, including forecasts for the week, month, and year ahead. CLICK HERE for background information.  

To follow the numbers below, click here to view the Solar Cycle 23 Chart. Or, get the data in a NOAA Table.

 

The Sunspot Count on September 21 was 33 and falling. Solar Flux was 95 and falling.  The Solar Flux has gradually dropped from 110 on September 15 and sunspots have followed the Flux downward from 67 on the same day.

 

Date          Flux  Sunspots  Area

2004 09 15  110     67      460     

2004 09 16  108     80      470     

2004 09 17  105     76      470     

2004 09 18  103     50      460     

2004 09 19  105     42      370     

2004 09 20  101     59      400     

2004 09 21   95     33      340     

 

MORE PROBABLE THAN NOT:  A new peak should begin to form immediately for the month-end Triple Whammy planetary alignments involving Mercury, Mars, and Jupiter.

 

MONTHLY AVERAGES IN SOLAR CYCLE 23
These numbers are reported by Jan Alvestad

Over all, the sunspot average count (ISSN) for February 2004 was 46.0. March 2004  was even higher with the ISSN average count at 48.9  April’s count was radically lower at 39.3.  The May 2004 average count of 41.5 was SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN in April.  June 2004 was higher still with an average count of 43.2. and July took as even higher to an average count of 51.  August’s count dropped the average to 40, which returns us to the point on the general curve which we reached during April 2004.

 

 

 

 

SOLAR ACTIVITY

As reported by NASA/NOAA unless otherwise stated.  (Sudden surprises and huge storms are always possible even during sunspot minima periods such as the one we are currently headed into).  Descriptions and numbers are based on numbers as given by iway sources at about 1:00 – 3:00 PM Arizona Mountain Time (which does not have daylight savings time).

 

The Solar Wind was robust at 489.9 km/s this day while pushing a density of 4.5 protons/cm3”.   

 

In general not much activity nor is much foreseen through the next 48 hours.

 

Fluxgate Magnetometer:  The Fluxgate Chart at the University of Alaska (which measures magnetic disturbances in the Earth’s atmosphere created by solar winds and ion storms) showed a major disturbance about 10 hours ago. (as of this time, about 2 PM Mountain time US). To see the Fluxgate moment to moment, CLICK HERE.

 

NASA AURORA WATCH:  AURORA SEASON: Northern autumn began today, Sept. 22nd, at 1630 UT--and that means it's now aurora season. Scientists don't completely understand why, but there are more geomagnetic storms and auroras around the autumnal equinox than any other time of the year.”

 

NASA PREDICTS AS OF SEPTEMBER DAY 22: “None of the 'spots on the Earth-facing side of the sun today pose a threat for strong solar flares…There are no big coronal holes on the Earth-facing side of the sun.” During the next 24/48 hours, probability for an M-class solar flare is at 1% and for an X-class solar flare is at 5%, with a generally 5% - 45% probability for minor to severe geomagnetic disturbances during the next 24/48 hours, depending upon latitude (higher the latitude, higher the probability). 

 

Jan Alvestad reports:  “The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled on September 21. Solar wind speed ranged between 373 and 450 km/sec under the influence of a weak and slow coronal hole flow from recurrent coronal hole CH114. The expected CME from the M1 event on September 19 has not arrived.  Solar flux measured at 20h UTC on 2.8 GHz was 94.9. The planetary A index was 9 (STAR Ap - based on the mean of three hour interval ap indices: 10.6)…At midnight there was 1 spotted region on the visible disk. The solar flare activity level was low. A total of 1 C class event was recorded during the day…Region 10672 rotated out of view at the northwest limb…Comment added at 06:07 UTC on September 22: A solar wind shock was observed at ACE at about 06h UTC with an increase in solar wind speed from 440 to 540 km/sec. Initially the interplanetary magnetic field has been northwards and it is too early to tell if this disturbance will have significant geomagnetic effects.”

 

Jan Alvestad predicts:  “No obvious coronal holes are currently approaching geoeffective positions…The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled on September 22-25. There is still a slight chance of a glancing blow from a CME on September 22. In that case geomagnetic activity could increase to the unsettled to active level.“  Alvestad also predicts a 0% probability of coronal holes, a 0% probability of CME’s, and a 0% probability of M and/or X Class Flares.

 

 

 

 

 

WORLD WEATHER SUMMARY

Those who have been following the patterns have seen that the correlations between sunspot peaks and major storm fronts coming in off the oceans to track across the continents is roughly pretty good, sometimes very much exactly on the mark.  Accordingly, our “sloppycasts” (approximate continental weather patterns) this past few years have proven out to be fairly worthwhile.

 

The TRIPLE WHAMMY alignment on September 28 – October 1 between Mercury | Mars | Jupiter should bring another high spike in the Sunspot Count above 100.   This peak should begin to form by about September 20 and bring intense, wet Fall storms no later than October 5. 

 

LATEST HURRICANE ADVISORY AS OF THIS DATE:  All storm fronts should most likely be weakening as of this date.  Very little ionic flux is available from the Sun and upper atmosphere to feed energy into the storms and pump the atmosphere to accelerate low pressure vortices.  All tropical systems should continue to lose energy during the next 24 hours.

 

HURRICANE GENERAL ADVISORY:  September 24 through October 2 most likely will provide strong solar ionic influx which will tend to increase the size and severity of Hurricanes.  Watch the daily sunspot peak to determine whether a storm will increase or decrease in size.

 

FLOOD PRONE AREAS:  EXPECT MAJOR FLOODING IN THE PERIOD OCTOBER 5 – OCTOBER 20.  In North America, Pacific Northwest through to Midwest will be hit hard.  But it should be a great year for mushrooms.

 

WE SURE GOT THIS ONE RIGHT DURING PRIOR WEEKS:  MAJOR STORM FRONTS AND EXTENSIVE FLOODING CAN BE EXPECTED IN MANY AREAS FROM ABOUT SEPTEMBER 12 THROUGH TO SEPTEMBER 20.

 

STAND PAT ON THIS THROUGH OCTOBER 15:  WE CERTAINLY CALLED THIS CORRECTLY FOR THE U.S. AND JAPAN:  AS OBSERVED LAST MONTH:  weather patterns are tweaked out into chaotic extremes which fit no averages or generalities.  Forget predictions, expect anything.  THIS CONDITION WILL PERSIST THROUGH SEPTEMBER, CHAOS ALTERNATING WITH PERIODS OF CALMING. CONSIDER THIS STILL ON AS THE STAND PAT PREDICTION OF SEPTEMBER 2004..

 

EARTH WEATHER PREDICTION FOR THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS

(Northern Hemisphere) This “sloppycast” is based on sunspot counts, planetary alignments, and visual data shown on satellite and radar.

 

WE SURE GOT THIS ONE RIGHT, EXCEPT FOR THE LANDFALL OF THE EYE OF THE HURRICANE:  The greatest damage in Louisiana and Mississippi and Alabama will COME FROM RECORD BREAKING FLOODS, both off the ocean and from the rain.  The winds should drop to Category 3 as Ivan hits the North Gulf Coast.  The “eye” looks like it may pass right over New Orleans.

 

THERE IS NO LONGER ANY NORMAL WEATHER. BUT THINGS ARE MUTING OUT AT THE MOMENT.  ANOTHER TIDAL WAVE OF CHAOS IN COMING BEGINNING ABOUT THE END OF THE MONTH.

 

 

EARTH WEATHER PREDICTION FOR FALL SEASON

(Northern Hemisphere) This “sloppycast” is based on sunspot counts, planetary alignments, and visual data shown on satellite and radar.

 

WILD AND WOOLY:  The output of the Sun is currently too volatile and unpredictable to give very good predictions.  Accordingly, expect 50% probability of anything.

 

Another wave will begin to form up about October 1st.  The long slow alignments of Mercury, Mars, and Jupiter from September 28 through October 1 should bring sunspots from below 20 up to well above 100 to intensify any Hurricanes, Typhoons, and Marine Storm Fronts coming in off the Pacific and Atlantic Oceans.

 

I expect a very wet October with a strong continuation of the early “Fall Syndrome”. THIS SHOULD BE A GREAT YEAR FOR SHROOMING.

 

HAS “FALL” COME?  For remarks related to the early Fall Season see the Weather Section in the August 25 EC Update

 

 

KEEP WATCHING FOR THIS PATTERN:  Global Warming could easily intensify the seasons, making a short bitterly cold Winter, longer intermediate stormy Spring and Fall seasons, and shorter but very hot and dry summers. Don’t we already see this pattern at work in the Northern Hemisphere?

 

SOUTHWEST CONDITIONS

This “sloppycast” is based on six years of living in the USA Pacific Southwest, the sunspot counts, planetary alignments, and visual data shown on satellite and radar.

 

Glory be.  Hurricane Xavier off the Pacific dumped two to three inches of rain in many portions of the Southwest.  That is about 10% of our “Normal” rainfall and we will take it, thank very much, even if the wind was a bit much.  Unfortunately, we still have a huge deficit from the monsoon “no show”.

 

AS PREVIOUSLY REPORTED:  For a large part of the elevations below 4000 feet in the Southwest,  the general drought in the Western U.S. is still holding sway. Only the Winter of 2005 remains a hope at this point.  At this point, everyone in the Southwest should begin to pray in earnest for a HUGE El Nino effect.  During the last El Nino, the Southwest received substantial water. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

EL NINO & LA NINA WATCH
The watch is now open again; Pacific water activity appears mostly normal, we are between the extremes of the ENSO; Click here for the NOAA window on the Pacific Ocean Temperatures:

http://www.cdc.noaa.gov/map/clim/sst_olr/sst_animated.gif

 

AS REPORTED PREVIOUSLY – THE CLASSIC EL NINO – We do not at this point know whether an El Nino is in the offing for 2005.  There are no signs of it along the Equator in the Pacific.  Purely in accordance with the X Wave correlation which I discovered in the Vortex Tectonics Model,  AN EL NINO IS MORE PROBABLE THAN NOT IN 2005.  But, the El Nino is not like an astrophysical cycle.  There are some “missing” El Nino’s in the record of the 20th century and we may have a missing one.  HOWEVER, WE CAN’T BE CERTAIN UNTIL ABOUT APRIL OF 2005, which is about the latest month in which the syndrome has formed up during previous El Nino’s.

 

OF MAJOR INTEREST:  as reported in prior weeks, a huge spot of warm water, considerably above average range,

concentrated in the zone between Hawaii and California. During the last two weeks, the spot transmuted by some inexplicable manner. It split and created a second zone North of the Hawaiian Islands.  The zone between Hawaii and the California coast has diminished in temperature and size.

 

This must be having a major impact on all marine and West Coast weather patterns.    This is not your normal pattern at all and it will create some El Nino characteristics in the Fall Weather for the Gulf of Alaska and the Pacific Coast of North America.  It should be highly productive of wet warm marine air seeking to flow into North America along the more northerly latitudes. 

 

By increasing and altering the pattern of the  flow of wet marine air into North America, this patch of warm water (up to about eight degrees higher than normal in its center) will effect the weather of North America through the Mid-West and even into New England and Eastern Canada.  If it persists into December, we should see exceptionally heavy snowfalls in all mountain areas

 

Until a RECOGNIZABLE trend forms up, it is impossible to predict what is going to happen on this front. Accordingly, we are flying into Weather chaos. 

 

ADDITIONAL NOTE:  The year 2004 and/or 2005, in accordance with the 100 year X Wave Graph of the motion of the spin axis in Chandler’s Wobble, COULD BE EL NINO YEARS.   Graphs of various El Nino periods seem to show that the beginning of temperature build-up can occur as late as April of an El Nino year.  So 2005 may not be callable until early Spring 2005.

 

 

 

KEEP WATCHING THE ARCTIC,  ANTARCTIC, and the desert zones. These areas are the most objective front line observatories of the climate shift.

 

 

GLOBAL WARMING

It is becoming obvious that we have a long term real shift in the average temperatures and climate regions related to the latitudes.  This climate shift is creating a growing environmental disaster in the polar zones and in the desert-prone latitudes such as in the Pacific Southwest. For the latest short review, see Earth Changes Bulletin Update As Of May 26, 2004 and the Earth Changes Bulletin Update As Of August 18, 2004

 

It is apparent from dozens and hundreds of reports from around the world that “global warming” is accelerating climate shifts and ecological changes around the world.  These changes are so varied in such great quantity, it is difficult to summarize the shifts which are going on but it is impossible to ignore them.

 

LOOK FOR THE “HEADLINES ON EARTH NEWS”  WHICH I OCCASSIONALLY SEND.  THERE IS SO MUCH HAPPENING ON THIS FRONT IT IS DIFFICULT TO EASILY SUMMARIZE IT.

 

For latest comments on Global Warming,

 

Earth Changes Bulletin Update As Of August 25, 2004

 

For backgrounder information about Global Warming and how to look for it and correlate it to the real causes (solar influx and tectonic heat rifts in the bottoms of the oceans), see

 

Earth Changes Bulletin Update As Of July 14, 2004

 

 

 

 

 

IONIZING SOLAR ACTIVITY & MASS BEHAVIOR

 

 

Continue to expect heavy choppiness in all things human.  Sudden shifts, both good and ill, everywhere.

 

Early September produced a strong up chop for Bush.  This past week has seen a sudden huge chop of fear among the world’s politicians, including throughout Washington DC.  A large emotional reaction is welling up in fear that the Bush Administration is now loosing the war in Iraq and that the election of a new President will be too late to avoid serious military loses.  Even senior Republican leaders are now admitting (in hallway whispers) that the Bush administration is lying.

 

As things stand at the moment, the Republican coalition is crumbling rapidly, more and more flaking away from the Pentecostal “core”.

 

THIS REACTION BUBBLE IN LIKELY TO INCREASE AND MAY CRYSTALLIZE DURING THE FIRST HALF OF OCTOBER.  THIS WILL PRODUCE INTENSE STRESS AND INSTABILITY IN AMERICAN POLITICS.

 

All in all, continue to expect heavy emotional hard-line responses and activity during the next two weeks, volatile sudden changes and activities tending to produce chaos in events and confusion in the minds of large numbers of people.

 

After October 5, conditions should settle out and crystallize slowly through October and November and December.  There are no planetary alignments until December 30.

 

Whatever crystallizes out during October is likely to remain a constant until the alignments of January 5, 2005.  Given world conditions, the crystallization between humans is likely to be highly polarized and highly charged with emotional energy.

 

It is likely then, that whatever “surprises” and sudden changes may be coming our way are likely to right around the first week in October 2004 and the events of that period will tend to dominate the remainder of the year.

 

 

 

 

 

EARTHQUAKES

Around the world to see the current and potential patterns of seismic activity, with coverage of the windows of danger.  Unless otherwise specified, all quake activity which is discussed is based on the USGS database charts and tables which list quake activity in excess of 2.0 mag. and above.  Unfortunately there are many lags in reporting of information about quakes, thus neither the numbers of quakes nor the actual quakes discussed may be complete and accurate.  Real time analysis of quake patterns is merely AN APPROXIMATION BASED ON INCOMPLETE INFORMATION.  FOR MORE QUAKE INFO RELATED TO SYZYGY WINDOWS, Jim Berkland calculates syzygy windows with considerably more sophistication than I do.  See Syzygy.com

Seismic activity was not really up overall for this Perigee Moon, SO FAR.  Overall, both magnitudes and frequency of quakes for the past seven days over 3.0  has been very modest.  All the usual places were struck with very modest levels of seismic activity.  Since we still have at least another 48 hours of Perigee, this could change suddenly.

 

New Zealand was quite active and so was the North Pacific Ring of Fire Arc, including additional quakes in Japan. But otherwise seismic activity was quite muted.

 

So also was the shape-shifting.  After two weeks of increasing numbers in the Great Rift, only three were produced during this past seven days.

 

There was an exceptional swarm of quake activity along the California/Nevada border to the East of the famed Yosemite Valley.  A swarm of over 500 micro-quakes (almost all below 3.0 in mag.) struck near Lake Mono during the past several days

 

 

COSA NOSTRA DAMUS WATCH FOR SOUTH CAL.

 

AS PREVIOUSLY OBSERVED: according to the Cosa Nostra Damus Prophecy, a major destructive quake could now strike at any time in Santa Barbara, Santa Monica, Hollywood, the Van Nuys Valley region, Bakersfield, and anywhere along the escarpment of the San Bernardino Mountains. This will be a follow up to the 4.9 quake which was felt in Coos Bay Oregon during July 2004.  If a quake occurs near Santa Barbara, warnings will need to be given to Mexico City about the possibility of a major explosive event in Popo.

 

SLOW EARTH MOVEMENT WATCH

 

No reports to add this week

 

SHAPE-SHIFTERS WATCH

The quake activity in the Great Rift is one of the most important harbingers for the Earth Changes Watch to monitor. As the Earth’s crust adjusts its shape in response to gravitational and spin energy vectors, quakes in the Great Rift increase and tectonic activity all around the world increases. (Unless otherwise specified, all quake activity which is discussed is based on the USGS LOCAL AREA database charts and tables which list quake activity in excess of 3.0 mag. and above. Generally most of the quakes which appear in these counts are 4.5 plus in magnitude.)  For additional information on Plate Tectonics and charts of the Great Rift of the Earth, go to Plate Tectonics Map

 

The USGS World Chart for the past seven days totaled up only three shape-shifters in the Great Rift of the ocean bottoms. Two 5.5 quakes struck Southeast of the Easter Islands, and a 4.7 struck the North Mid-Atlantic Ridge South of Iceland.

 

Magnitude 5.5 SOUTHEAST OF EASTER ISLAND

Tuesday, September 21, 2004 at 17:55:50 UTC

Preliminary Earthquake Report

http://neic.usgs.gov/neis/bulletin/neic_nrcg.html

U.S. Geological Survey, National Earthquake Information Center

Location        36.19S 101.39W

Depth            10.0 kilometers

Region          SOUTHEAST OF EASTER ISLAND

Reference     1260 km (780 miles) SE of Hanga Roa, Easter Island

2820 km (1750 miles) WSW of SANTIAGO, Chile

 

Magnitude 4.7 REYKJANES RIDGE

Friday, September 17, 2004 at 14:32:53 UTC

Preliminary Earthquake Report

http://neic.usgs.gov/neis/bulletin/neic_nmaq.html

U.S. Geological Survey, National Earthquake Information Center

Location        58.77N 31.34W

Depth            10.0 kilometers

Region          REYKJANES RIDGE

Reference     780 km (485 miles) SW of REYKJAVIK, Iceland

825 km (520 miles) SSE of Tasiilaq (Angmagssalik), Greenland

840 km (520 miles) WSW of Vik, Iceland

1245 km (770 miles) ESE of NUUK (GODTHAB), Greenland

 

NORTH AMERICAN WATCH

Unless otherwise specified, all quake activity which is discussed is based on the USGS LOCAL AREA database charts and tables which list quake activity in excess of 1.0 mag. and above. Generally most of the quakes which appear in these counts are in the range of 1 to 2 in magnitudeAny numbers used in this section may or may not be accurate and may or may not reflect what will eventually appear in scientific databases.

 

Seismic activity in North America overall for quakes in the range of 1.0 and over was generally up this last week for the past seven days. This is as is expected with the Perigee Moon Seismic Period we are currently in.

 

But seismic activity was not really up by much except for some 500 quakes near the Long Valley Cauldera at a depth ranging mostly from 5 to 10 KM.  This activity was tightly clustered due East of Mono Lake nearly dead on the Nevada border.  Since Mono Lake is a large volcanic landform to the North of the Long Valley Cauldera, it is most certain that this sudden huge swarm of small quakes, typically in the range of 1.0 to 2.0, was produced by a sudden breaking of dikes and the flow of magma some four to five miles below the surface.  A number of 3.0 to 5.0 mag. quakes were felt with this swarm

 

This swarm of some 500 quakes during the past several days naturally increased the totals for North America.  Thus the totals below for North America, California, and Long Valley Area are inflated by these numbers. If the 500 were subtracted, seismic activity in all other areas would be close to normal.

 

985 quakes in U.S./Alaska as a whole, up from 521 the prior week. 

 

·        Three of these were in the Madrid Fault zone of Iowa down to Arkansas and Tennessee.

·        Two of these occurred in Tennessee on the Western slopes of the Appalachian Mountains.

·        Eleven of these occurred on the big island of Hawaii related to Kilauea

 

 

25 small microtremors in the PNW, down from 30 last week, widely scattered in Washington State mainly along the Cascades.

 

13 in Utah, down from 15 last week.

 

845 in California and Nevada, up from 333 last week, widely scattered in California and Nevada; these were widely scattered except for the 535 in the region of the Long Lake Cauldera.

 

The Long Lake Cauldera saw the typical number of quakes, 13 in the Mammoth Lakes, Long Valley Volcanic Cauldera area,  down from 16 last week. 

 

YELLOWSTONE WATCH

Unless otherwise specified, all quake activity which is discussed is based on the USGS LOCAL AREA database charts and tables which list quake activity in excess of 1.0 mag. and above. Generally most of the quakes which appear in these counts are in the range of 1 to 2 in magnitude.  For Yellowstone Quake Chart, CLICK HERE.

 

Activity this past seven days increased slightly with 14 quakes in Yellowstone, up from 10 last week. These were scattered through the Yellowstone park zone.

 

WEEK’S MOST SIGNIFICANT QUAKES

 

 

 

 

 

VOLCANOES

Around the world with the most interesting and relevant volcano stories; briefs on the likely eruptions as well as coverage of on-going activity. For information on current eruptions, see the Southwest Volcano Centre.  Or see “Breaking Volcano Eruption News”.

 

OBSERVABLE WORLD VOLCANIC ACTIVITY APPEARED TO REMAIN CONSTANT THIS PAST SEVEN DAYS. ASH EMISSIONS FROM MANY VOLCANOES CONTINUED SPORADICALLY AS WELL AS LAVA FLOW FROM ETNA.  (This is a fairly subjective guestimate based on the numbers and data reported by the SWVC, quake data, and other reports).

 

HOWEVER, SUBTERRANEAN VOLCANIC ACTIVITY APPEARS TO HAVE COMMENCED IN THE VICINITY OF LAKE MONO NEAR THE CALIFORNIA/NEVADA BORDER.

 

Here are the SWVC volcanic activity numbers as of September Day 22 2004:

 

6 on restless list (could go on active list at any moment) (same as last week)

 

48 on alert list (pre-cursors suggesting that activity may begin) (same as last week)

 

23 on active list (seismic, gas, steam, lava, ash, or explosive activity) (same as last week)

 

Popo gave a 10 puff day yesterday.  Centrapred reports for September Day 22 (17:00 GMT) that “"In the last 24 hours the monitoring system of Popocatepetl volcano, recorded only 10 low intensity exhalations accompanied by steam and gas emissions. The other monitored parameters remain without important changes.  At the moment of this report we can not observe the volcano due to the clouds. This morning we could see the volcano with low fumarolic activity."

 

MOST ACTIVE VOLCANOES THIS WEEK

from Volcano Breaking News by Volcanologist John Seach

Volcano Travel:  john@volcanolive.com

Dates in red are posted in Eastern Australian Time (UT + 10 hr)

Mt Etna (Italy)
37.73 N, 15.00 E, summit elevation  3350 m, Shield volcano
Thursday 23rd September 2004
No great change on the emissions of lava from the effusive mouths. The 2620m flow of lava is identical to the observations of yesterday with emission of 4 cubic m/s. The 2350m flow is less, with emission of 0.5 cubic m/s. A tremor of magnitude 2.0 was recorded at Mt Etna.
More on Mt Etna Volcano...

Manam Volcano (Papua New Guinea)
4.10 S, 145.06 E, summit elevation 1807 m, Stratovolcano
Wednesday 22nd September 2004
A pilot reported ash plume to 10,000 ft moving west today at 0345 hr (UT). Mild eruptive activity has occurred at Manam volcano during 2004.
More on Manam volcano...

Mt Etna (Italy)
37.73 N, 15.00 E, summit elevation  3350 m, Shield volcano
Wednesday 22nd September 2004
The flow of lava from the effusive mouths in the Valle del Bove at 2620m and 2350m, is 4 cubic m/sec. The front of the 2620m flow is at 1740m, moving 210m in 24 hours. The front of the 2350m flow is at 2100m elevation, moving 250m in 24 hours.
More on Mt Etna Volcano...

Kilauea Volcano (Hawaii)
19.425 N, 155.292 W, summit elevation 1222 m, Shield volcano
Wednesday 22nd September 2004
There is no surface lava at the previously active Banana flow. All vents in the of Pu`u `O`o crater are incandescent, indicating the proximity of magma to the surface. There is moderate tremor at Pu`u `O`o crater.
More on Kilauea Volcano... 
Volcanoes of Hawaii... 

Mt Etna (Italy)
37.73 N, 15.00 E, summit elevation  3350 m, Shield volcano
Tuesday 21st September 2004
The two effusive mouths of 2620m and 2250m are still active. Both lava flows, which run into the Valle del Bove, continue with a constant flow, but slightly reduced compared to the flows of the first days. The flow of lava below the effusive mouth of 2620m, moves more and more in a tunnel, the phenomenon is more significant today. Since September 10, lava has traversed a length of approximately 1500 meters. The front of lava is at an altitude of 1950m. The same phenomenon of a lava tunnel is visible also under the second effusive mouth at 2250m. In three places lava passes into a tunnel. The front of this flow is at altitude of 2100m, and has traversed 700 meters distance. 
More on Mt Etna Volcano...

Asama Volcano (Japan)
36.40 N, 138.53 E, summit elevation 2560 m, complex volcano
Friday 17th September 2004
Mt Asama volcano erupted almost continuously for a third straight day Thursday, ejecting molten rocks and a gray plume into the air, accompanied by more than 1,000 small earthquakes. The mountain rumbled throughout the day, propelling red-hot rocks nearly 1,000 feet into the air and sending a plume nearly 4,000 feet above the volcanic crater. Ashfall also occurred on Karuizawa, a resort town six miles away. 
More on Asama volcano...

Mt Etna (Italy)
37.73 N, 15.00 E, summit elevation  3350 m, Shield volcano
Thursday 16th September 2004
Both effusive openings on the western side of the Valle del Bove have reduced their output of lava. The lava flow, beginning at the mouth of the 2,620 metre summit, reached a maximum length of 1,450 m but has almost stopped, just like the smaller one near Monti Centenari at 1,900 metres. It was also noted that near the eruption scene there was an absence of gases and tremors: both signs that the magma is not rising towards the surface.
More on Mt Etna Volcano...

 

 

 

 

 

Standing Assessment:  Likely, it is fair to conclude that the not-so-invisible Black Arts Nation, from HAARP to the Navy, to the Bush/Ashcroft prisons in Iraq/Afghanistan and Cuba, not to mention many other technologies, areas, and programs, are far out of ethical, moral, constitutional, and treaty control, as has been widely feared. 

 

 

BLACK ARTS NATION

 

STAY TUNED.  We are just on the front edge of “the outing”….

 

 

 

 

 

ECONOMY WATCH 

 

 

MAJOR FORECAST REVISION

 

AS PREVIOUSLY PREDICTED:  All economic indicators for July were down and we are not far from the Ides of September, by which we will know the most important indicators. NOW FORGET THE INDICATORS.

 

U.S. ECONOMY WILL GROW FOR AT LEAST A FEW MORE MONTHS

 

THERE ARE STILL NO SIGNS OF A GENERAL RECOVERY, THERE HAVE BEEN MANY GROWING SIGNS OF A RECESSION. AND

 

THERE IS CLEAR EVIDENCE OF A STAGFLATION DYNAMIC SETTING (RISING PRICES WITH NO GROWTH).

 

BUT

 

The fickle finger of fate has intervened and is creating sudden shifts which will drive sudden expansion and huge demand and production increases in certain sectors, specifically those related to construction and war.

 

Many of the authorized expenditures of the Bush War Machine for the Iraqi Expedition have yet to be spent.  Money which should have been spent in the range of tens of billions has yet to be spent.  NOW WITH THE INCREASING LOSS OF CONTROL IN IRAQ, the U.S. Military and occupation commands are going to have to suddenly shift operations and enormous sums are likely to be spent in the beginning of an expansion of military operations.  This is likely to produce some stimulation of the economy during the months ahead.

 

BUT EVEN MORE SIGNIFICANT:  The Triple Whammy of Charles, Francis, and Ivan has caused ENORMOUS DAMAGE.  The damage is bad news, of course, who lost.  But it is good news for those who build things. There is going to be more demand for new construction in the Southeastern portion of the U.S., something in the range of $30 billion, all financed by Insurance Claims and Government Assurance Programs.

 

This will provide a substantial stimulation of the U.S. economy.  Moribund Money tied up in paper assets will be liquefied to flow through several hands in a sudden spiral of new production and new consumption.

 

The demand for construction and repair will be so great that a great many people will have to wait a year or more to rebuild.  People and companies all over the U.S. will flow into the Southeast to meet the demand. Already, national databases for the construction industry are advertising for blue collar people to come to work in six month contracts at up to $35/hour plus per diem, plus health benefits.

 

Ironically, the tax give away to the wealthy did not work very well to expand jobs, but the Hurricanes will…

 

All this of course does little to save the economy from the 25 year depression cycle.  It just gives the current cycle a little more life.  Accordingly, the final decline will come a bit more precipitously when it comes.  It may not come until 2006.

 

FOR THE LASTEST DETAILED DISCUSSION

 

See the Earth Changes Bulletin Update Of July 21, 2004

 

FOR THE STAND PAT ECONOMIC PREDICTION FOR THIS YEAR,

 

 See the Earth Changes Bulletin Update Of May 12 2004

 

GENERAL PREDICTION DJI AVERAGES

 

The DJI finished September Day 22 at 10,109.18 down about $120 from last Wednesday at 10,231.36. 

 

Is this the top of the bubble?

 

I suspect it is very close to it.  If may chop up and down 100 points either way for the next few weeks.   Despite the recent price surge in oil, prices should drop in October and allow the bubble to inflate.   The market will get over its “interest rate increase” adjustment in a couple of weeks or less.  So these things will firm up the bubble.

 

But news on the political and war fronts, AIN’T VERY GOOD. Iraq recovery has essentially collapsed. Real war is heating up.  Bush’s support is crumbling and he couldn’t do a deal internationally if his life depended upon.

 

AS PREVIOUSLY PREDICTED:  Don’t wait for Christmas Retail Sales…they will be disappointing, depress the stock values, and lead into the final economic collapse.  When the DJI is above 10,000, liquidate anything you have in all such equities anywhere.  The DJI MAY HIT 10,500 AGAIN during late September but DON’T COUNT ON IT.  And if it does, it will be only a signal spike which will break the market for many months, if not many years.

 

FOR THE LAST CURRENT DETAILED DISCUSSIONS SEE:

See the Earth Changes Bulletin Update Of July 21, 2004

 

EURO WATCH 

 

The dollar closed today at 0.8155 down about 3/4ths of a cent from 0.8228 per euro a week ago.

 

“As oil goes up, the dollar will tend also to go down against the Euro.”

 

Both occurred together this week in synchronicity.

 

REVISION OF PREDICTION ONCE AGAIN:  “The overall erosion is likely to slowly continue through the year.  It may bottom at $0.70 per euro by the end of 2004.”  The international inflation of the dollar, which is being forced by international dynamics, is being made by revaluing the dollar against the barrel of oil and other basic major commodities.  At the moment, and so far this year, there is very little relative movement vis a vis the Euro. 

 

AS PREVIOUSLY REPORTED: Major efforts are being made right now to reduce the price of oil below $40/barrel. Production is being expanded everywhere it can be.  Saudi Arabia is trying to deliver the goods at lower prices to maintain Bush in power.

 

So far, the Saudi’s have not been very successful.

 

MUST READ:  “The Dollar Panics” in “The Coming Economic Collapse of 2006”, which lays out the dynamics of what is happening

 

 

 

 

 

SURVIVAL WATCH

 

FOOD WATCH

 

For latest info, see the Earth Changes Bulletin Update as of  July 7, 2004

 

JOB WATCH

 

Any aspect of the construction and home products industry is hot.

 

 

 

SIGN OF THE TIMES: Ken Lay, who is now widely described as the biggest corporate swindler of all time, is still scott free. (ONE OF THE WORST ECONOMIC TERRORISTS OF ALL TIME).  But now finally after waiting for two or so years, Lay has been indicted.  Notice the timing, near the end of the first term of the Bush Administration. At this time I will hazard the guess that he will be pardoned by Bush during the final days of his administration, probably December of this year.  ANOTHER NEARLY EQUAL SIGN OF THE TIMES:  The lawyers who have been settling the Enron collapse for all parties, are billing the remaining net assets of Enron for approximately $1 billion for their services.  This is a new heavenly-ordained definition for the term Chutzpah.  I CALL IT CLASS ECONOMIC TERRORISM.

 

POLITICAL WATCH

For general overview on the Tragedy in Iraq and the Bureau-Political Civil War in Washington DC, I highly recommend Tom Dispatch.

 

For general background:  see Earth Changes Bulletin Update As Of July 7 2004

 

Once again we can see that THE WORLD AWAITS THE DEPARTURE OF THE BUSH REGIME.  Bush’s reception at the U.N. was chilly to say the least.  The U.N. Secretary General set the tone a week or so in advance by reminding everyone, in an understated way typical of diplomats, that the U.S. invasion of Iraq was illegal under international law and that thus the U.S. President would speak to the U.S. Assembly as a rogue-nation.

 

Not one country has responded to appeals to help the U.S. extricate itself from Iraq and in fact more announcements continue to be made about the gradual withdrawal of foreign involvement in “Mess o potamia” (so-called by Jon Stewart).

 

In the U.S. presidential elections, the Democrats under John Kerry are breathing fire and brimstone at Republicans.  His message is finally beginning to parallel with current events, he is finally talking on a plane with is appropriate to the hideous corruption and incompetence which the Republicans have visited upon us, and he is clearly rejecting the entire “Imperial” agenda and the invasion of Iraq.

 

His speech this week, prior to Bush’s speech at the United Nations, shows that he is seeking now to take the U.S. down a path which will work to pull it out of Iraq by whatever means will work.  Kerry presented a four point outline which at least points in the right directions, even if the “plan” is so scant on details, it has neither wheels nor a motor.

 

AS PREVIOUSLY REPORTED:  It is highly likely that the most decisive ammunition against the Imperial Faction is yet to be lobbed….The sense of moral outrage is still building……people are waiting for the right timing……I have this feeling that fireworks will emerge in October. 

 

AS PREVIOUSLY OBSERVED: Bush remains in every way an “untouchable” international pariah such as has not been seen since the days of Stalin. The problem is the lying. To touch this tar baby, one risks becoming befouled with the lies from even the barest minimum of association.  WHAT WILL HAPPEN NEXT IS ANYONE’S GUESS. American politics has never been so unpredictable. Doubtless the Bush Administration and virtually the entire Imperial Faction is or will be caught up in legal issues and press controversies which will pile higher and higher.  To counter the attacks and legal moves against them, the Bush-iters will use every sorcery they can contrive to conceal everything which is not nailed down in plain site in front of the New York Times.  They will even chip away at that late at night.   They will use Saddam Hussein in every way possible to rationalize their existence, deeds, and legitimacy to be re-elected.  Every lie and form of bigotry they have ever used will be retread to denigrate Kerry, Edwards, Nader, and every other candidate for lower office.  The meltdown of U.S. politics into a world-class cesspool manipulated by a sordid class of third rate sorcerers will be nearly complete.

 

BUT PERHAPS THIS IS JUST AN ANNEALING PROCESS, THE TIME OF THE EXPOSIING AND BURNING AWAY OF THE CRAP.  PERHAPS WE ARE NOW FINALLY FIGHTING IN ONE OF THE LAST CHAPTERS IN THE STRUGGLE FOR THE SOUL OF  AMERICA WHICH BEGAN ON THE STREETS OF BERKELEY WITH THE FREE SPEECH MOVEMENT AND THE REALIZATION THAT THE VIETNAM WAR WAS A HIDDEOUS MISTAKE.

 

 

 

A new media now arrives, floating down the river Iway, and with it comes a new consciousness of the world and the lies which have driven so much of the past 50 years….

 

From this, the future will arise as the old world slowly collapses.

 

All else is fluid, in transition. Thank God Almighty!

 

 

THE STRATEGIC SITUATIONFinal Synopsis
For predictions related to the mess in Palestine, the Middle East, and the Bush political era.

 

AS PREVIOUSLY REPORTED:

 

CONDITIONS IN IRAQ AND THE MIDDLE EAST

ARE IN EXTREME CRISIS

 

The entire world continues to witness the American impasse in Iraq.  American policy and management are now clearly on trajectory to a catastrophic loss.

 

As reported in prior months:  Since May 2004 it has been obvious that the U.S. Military was adrift without a rudder AND MISSING ITS PADDLES whilst attempting a turn-around far up the creek named Iraq. 

 

 

U.S. MEDIA AND INTERNET SOURCES ARE REPORTING WIDELY THAT THE PENTAGON IS PLANNING A MAJOR COUNTER-OFFENSIVE AGAINST THE INSURGENTS WHO ARE ACTIVE IN SEVERAL CITIES.

 

THAT OF COURSE IS RUMSFELD’S STYLE.  FROM SHOCK AND AWE TO ABU GHRAIB, IT SHOULD BE CLEAR THAT DONALD RUMSELD HAS LITTLE SENSE OF LEADERSHIP, THOUGH HE APPEARS FASCINATED BY DICTAT AND BRUTALITY BY JACKBOOTS.

 

A MAJOR OFFENSIVE IN THE DENSE URBAN AREAS WILL KILL AND MAIN COUNTLESS NUMBERS OF PEOPLE WHOM DONALD RUMSFELD HAS ARROGANTLY REFUSED TO COUNT SINCE THE BEGINNING OF HIS ILLEGAL WAR.

 

A MAJOR OFFENSIVE INSIDE URBAN ZONES WITH MAJOR LOSSES OF LIFE WILL CAUSE AN EVEN GREATER WORLD POLARIZATION AGAINST THE U.S. AND LEAD DIRECTLY TO A MAJOR MILITARY LOSS IN IRAQ SOMETIME IN 2005.

 

Maintaining order must be done with intelligence and finesse, not jet bombers and tanks.

 

During this September there has been another major increase in the level of violence.  The insurgency is now a widespread civil war involving some 20,000 armed insurgents (estimated by various press sources) conducting hundreds of hit and run operations every day.  The levels of violence are so bad, the mercantile class is beginning to close their shops again. People everywhere are losing the ability to function.  There is no freedom nor security in Iraq, just massive fear.  People and sources from outside the U.S. who do not work with American media are reporting that the level of problems in Iraq is much higher than Americans are being told by their press.

 

This trendline spells defeat for the Americans during the next 120 days.  It is quite apparent that the insurgency and Alqaeda are hell bent to defeat the proposed elections in January 2005.  For Alqaeda, this means that they will keep the killing fields open for a longer period of time.  They will keep the U.S. mired hopelessly in a non-win condition while terrorists jab the Bull with a succession of lances to bleed it dry in the sands of the desert.

 

Under existing conditions and U.S. military management, Osama Bin Laden knows that it is just a matter of time before the U.S. is forced to withdraw its troops.  If he can be the agent which forces the withdrawal, he will a huge victory and move the entire Middle East in his direction.   Accordingly it is extremely important to deny him this victory.  But a bellicose, aggressive American Bull rampaging ever harder in the Middle East IS NOT THE WAY TO BLOCK OSAMA’S VICTORY.  IT IS THE ONE SURE ROAD TO TOTAL DEFEAT.

 

Soon the U.S. will be at the LBJ Moment Of History.  The LBJ Moment was in 1968 when he realized that both he and the establishment were wrong about Vietnam, that he had lost control.  He decided not to deal with it and withdrew from office, allowing someone else to be elected President.

 

We won’t replay that same scenario under Bush.  This time the entire nation will be in LBJ’s Moment.  The entire nation is coming to a moment when they are going to have to decide whether to convert the U.S. into a massive war mobilization (which many in Washington DC have made plain that want) or to turn course abruptly to create peace.

 

 

HERE IS THE MAIN HOPE OUT OF THIS STRATEGIC IMPASSE:

 

AN AUTHENTIC ISLAMIC MORAL AUTHORITY IS ARISING AND IS BEGINNING TO FORGE A COALITION TO UNIFY IRAQ AND BRING CIRCUMSTANCES TO THE POINT WHERE THE AMERICANS CAN BE ASKED TO LEAVE.  QUICKLY. 

 

THE ARRANGEMENTS WILL BE FORGED BY JANUARY.  MORE PROBABLE THAN NOT, THE MULLAHS WILL ARRANGE THE ELECTION OF A GOVERNMENT WHICH ASSERTS ITS SOVEREIGNTY AND ASKS THE U.S. TO LEAVE VIRTUALLY IMMEDIATELY.

 

PASS THE WORD: THIS IS HOW IT WILL END IN IRAQ, NEITHER BY BUSH NOR BY KERRY. 

 

STAND PAT ON  the latest dossier, see the Earth Changes Bulletin Update as of  July 7, 2004

Michael Wells Mandeville,
The Hills of Arizona USA at mwman@earthlink.net
Master Website Index is at: http://www.michaelmandeville.com

Author of  several books, including: "Return of the Phoenix" at
http://www.michaelmandeville.com/phoenix/phoenix.htm
and "The Coming Economic Collapse of 2006" at
http://www.michaelmandeville.com/calendar/collapse2006.htm
_________________________________________________
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