PHOENIX FIVE EARTH CHANGES BULLETIN

Monitoring The Changes In The Earth

edited by Michael Wells Mandeville copyright September 1 2004

                                                                                                             

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Click here for how to access these in the complete weekly update which is posted on the WEB.

 

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Please Note:  This Bulletin is conceived as a System.  It is still in an early stage of evolution.  We intend to progressively link into this synopsis system all of the major news feeds of Planet Earth which articulate aspects of the profound historical Change In The Earth which is underway.

 

 

 

Earth Changes Bulletin Update As Of September 1 2004

You have heard of the Weather Report?  Here exclusively is this week’s  "Earth Report" - a short review of the “big picture” about how the dynamic changes in the Sun and the Earth are effecting our lives more and more intensely, with the latest prognostications and predictions for weathermen, farmers, investors, businessmen, and every man.

 

You may click here for the full text of the Earth Changes Bulletin Update for this week, or use this  URL

http://www.michaelmandeville.com/earthmonitor/ecbulletins/2004/ecb_Sept_1_04.htm

 

BEWARE HURRICANE FRANCIS

This is more probable than not a Category Five Grand Slam into the middle of Florida and up George to the Carolinas.  WATCH THE SUNSPOTS, ON WHICH ALL THINGS IN THE WEATHER TURN.  IF THE NUMBER GOES UP THURSDAY, I HIGHLY RECOMMEND SPENDING TIME ANYWHERE ELSE BUT FLORIDA.

 

THE COSMIC FORCES BRIEFLY MUTED ON THE EARTH PLANE THIS PAST WEEK BUT ALREADY A RESURGENCE FROM THE SOLAR VORTEX IS GROWING AND WILL PUSH WEATHER AND HUMANS TO EXTREMES.  AMONG THE NATIONS, AL QAEDA, OBVIOUSLY HOPING TO DIMIINSH THE TURN TO PEACE IN IRAQ AND THE BUSH TRIUMPH IN NEW YORK UNLEASHES A NEW COORDINATED CAMPAIGN OF VIOLENCE THROUGHOUT A HUGE EXPANSE OF THE MIDDLE EAST. 

 

 

On the geophysical front,  FOR THIS AMAZING GLOBAL WARMING SUMMER, the next major peak of sunspots will probably hit 180 plus during the first week of September to produce VERY WET LATE SUMMER STORMS .  But Earth’s tectonics remain calm.  Volcanism remains largely muted with the calming of Kilauea and Etna, even despite four minor eruptions in Africa and Asia.  Only three shape-shifter quakes struck in the Great Rifts of the ocean bottoms this past week and the Perigee Full Moon produced very little seismic activity.  Even the El Nino trend weakened in the charts of August 8-22, calling it in doubt for 2005.

 

On the geopolitical front, BEWARE THE NEXT 60 DAYS. As the Imperial Faction continues to lose its hypnotic mindlock on the American public, vigorous effort and stupendous sums are being expended on manufacturing FEAR AND THE WILL TO VIOLENT REACTIONS.  The greater portion of the Republican National Convention is lavishing praise and adulation on “Der Fuhrer” (German for National Leader).  Along with this weird and endless spectacle, we see the endless repetition of fear and loathing mantras to raise THE WILL TO ENDLESS INTERNATIONAL WAR led by “Der Fuhrer” against the Enemies and Evil-doers.  The nakedness of the lies is stunning.  The boldness of this starkly Hitlerian strategy is jaw-dropping  But will they work?….THAT is not easy to determine.  Save possibly for this, the economy is now in free fall and this inconvenient fact is likely to invoke more real fear to vote for a change than the Merchants of Imperialism can contrive for their masters. On this front, beware the Ides of September.

 

Go to detailed synopsis…

 

This hidden column on the right  is available for links, banners, and icons of Earth Changes Bulletin subscribers who have made their annual donation.  Inquire by sending query for exact procedure by sending a REPLY to the Earth Changes Bulletin weekly email update.  YOU MUST HAVE BEEN SUBSCRIBED FOR AT LEAST 30 DAYS TO QUALIFY (or a previous subscriber).. 

 

NOTES

Grayed items are not yet operational

 

PREVIOUS
WEEKLY

UPDATES

 

 

September 1, 2004

August 25, 2004

August 18, 2004

August 11, 2004

July 28, 2004

July 21, 2004

July 14, 2004

July 7, 2004

June 30, 2004

June 23, 2004

June 16, 2004

June 9, 2004

June 2, 2004

May 26, 2004

May 19, 2004

May 12, 2004

 

 

Program Thesis:

What are we trying to do with the Earth Changes Bulletin?

Most news media do not handle technical and scientific subjects like geology and earth sciences very well.  They don't understand the causes and effects of activities in the Sun and Earth.  Accordingly, they often do not understand if, when, how, why to report earthquakes, volcanic activity, global warming effects  The treatment often sounds absent-minded, poorly qualified, and frequently contains various technical errors.  Seldom is the treatment entertaining and genuinely educational.

Based on new scientific principles which have emerged during the past thirty years, many of the dynamic activities of the Sun and Earth can be linked together to see how a range of effects are linked together.  This makes it possible to paint "the big picture" into a perspective which explains many diverse events and processes, especially climate and weather patterns such as global warming and El Nino. From the "big picture", long range predictions can be made for weeks and even months ahead.  The result is sophisticated cutting-edge information which is objective, balanced, astute, relevant, and can be easily seen and appreciated by lay audiences.  The perspective is generally global, seldom parochial. For the framework of concepts, terms, and current conditions which are used or described in the these Bulletins, see the Earth Changes 2003 Almanac Calendar.

 

To see the internet resources which are used to prepare this Update, take a look at the Earth Monitor front page - http://www.michaelmandeville.com/earthmontor/

 

 

 

 

SPONSORING:

THE COMING ECONOMIC COLLAPSE OF 2006, which puts today, tomorrow, and the trends together into the Cayce 25 year economic cycle which will “bottom” in 2006/2007.  Click here to download

 

THIS BOOK STILL COOKS AND IT WILL COOK THE POLITICIANS AND THE ECONOMY ALL THE WAY THROUGH TO 2008:  This synthesis is far ahead of the daily digests in all halls of the internet media: so far (since may 2003) the track record on this set of predictions for 2003-2008 is running 100 per cent.  If you have not purchased this book, you will remain ignorant of the main dynamics which are rapidly changing everything. 

 

LATEST UPDATE NOTE AS OF SEPTEMBER 1, 2004: 

All projections are on track.  This month and next more probable than not are the last months of the last bubble in this 25 year leg of the long term economic cycle.  When equities begin to slide this Fall, they will hunt up and down sporadically as the chaos deepens through 2005.  Absolute Bottom will be found in 2006 or in 2007 and a very slow increase (not driven by Bull speculation) will probably begin to manifest in 2008.  In the interim period, most of the “Fortune 500” will disappear in their current form and their remnants will reappear as vastly different companies..

 

LATEST UPDATE NOTE AS OF AUGUST 11, 2004:  Once again, the Collapse 2006 book TRACKS the unfolding real dynamics, except that the forecasted events are tending to manifest three to fours months earlier.  All economic indicators for this July 2004 are DOWN except of course the BIG ONE is UUUUUP (you know what it is, don’t you?).  Yes of course, OIL is climbing rapidly, partly based on a 34% increase this year in world demand created largely in ASIA.  The progressive devaluation of the PETRO DOLLAR is now unfolding rapidly, despite the best expressed intentions of the House of Saud to hold dollar price stability for their partners, the Bush Family.

 

LATEST UPDATE NOTE AS OF JULY 21, 2004 – Several important  economic factors and/or indicators are now declining – IF TWO MORE MONTHS OF DECLINES ARE FOUND IN THE KEY FACTORS,  IT WILL BE MORE PROBABLE THAN NOT THAT THE DJI HAS PEAKED AND IS NOW HEADED PROGRESSIVELY DOWN.  ACCORDINGLY, SEPTEMBER 2004 WILL REVEAL WHETHER THE 25 YEAR ECONOMIC DECLINE HAS FINALLY HIT.  IF THE MESSAGE IS “YES”, the Kerry-Edwards ticket most likely will win decisively and the Republican control of Congress most likely will be “cracked”.  But there is room for considerable movement in all positions among large numbers of people and it is clear that many events in this fast-paced, unpredictable year could deflect ALL expectations.

 

 

 

 

 

 

HOUSEKEEPING

 

Some portions of this week’s update was prepared one day early on Tuesday, August 17, others one day later than usual, on August 19.

 

MANDEVILLE IS ON THE RADIO EVERY WEDNESDAY WITH

Alex Merklinger (Millennium Radio) show at 6 PM Arizona Time (also 6 PM Pacific Daylight Saving Time).   Regular Weekly Update For The Earth Changes Bulletin.  To find Iway archives and stations, see Millennium Radio Network

 

 

 

Begin Synopsis

 

 As stated in the “Coming Economic Collapse of 2006”, the nature of human politics reflects the communication abilities of the human species.  As we transform the media, as we have been on the Iway, we will transform human politics and the entire Earth.  Making the way for the New Earth is operationally equivalent to making a new Media on the Iway. Not that that is all that there is to it.  Not by a long shot…but IT IS one of the essentials we need to dissolve the blockages and dance around the tyrannies.

 

 

SPIRITUAL WATCH

How to converge and express the spirit of mass transformation into manifestation, HOW to be, IS the question. How to do is the praxis of the time.  Examining this question, probing it, is the chief trendline of this year.

 

A great turning towards peace is underway in the hearts and minds of a great mass of humanity, EVEN AS the merchants of dominance, hate,  revenge, and violence appear to crow even more loudly on the world stage or can be found eagerly arranging a major increase in the tempo of bombs explosions to murder and maime even more people.   A consciousness is gathering greater focus to dissolve away the entire Bush-Alqaeda continuum of absolutism and militarism and replace its brutalities with profound movement en masse towards peaceful solutions.

 

Look for it.  Greet it.  Nourish it with love.

 

AS PREVIOUSLY OBSERVED: 

 

BREATH FREE. Let go of everything which is disturbed, distorted, or weird.  Let go of everything which is forced, contrived, hidden, manipulative, and/or constrictive. Keep flowing with the rising tide of spiritual energies which are filling many thirsty souls.  The old patterns are falling away.  Transition continues. Embrace new relationships which are trying to form in your life if they are honest and straightforward and provide a new openness. Forget the fears of the unknown, embrace all that which lifts your life into the light of a greater understanding and relationship with the all.

 

EVERYTHING IS WORKING OUT DIFFERENTLY THAN PEOPLE ARE CURRENTLY FEARING OR PROJECTING.  IT WILL CONTINUE TO BE SO.  In a short while, some will come forth giving witness to a great energy which has come into their lives, literally, as if the hand of God was upon them.  This is becoming more and more apparent and these words will have greater meaning by the end of the year.

 

 

 

The “Great Purification” predicted by the Hopi, Maya, Q’ero, and many others continues.  How amazing that these ancient oral traditions could tune into last year and this one to advise us that this was a period of profound historical turning involving

The Great Purification

of the Earth? For additional discussion, see the commentary of May 19, 2004 and the commentary of June 16, 2004.

 

THE NEW BASIS IS GESTATING….

THE time to link the spiritual communities of the Earth. The Whole Earth. IT HAS BECOME URGENT TO LINK THE SPIRITUAL COMMUNITIES WITHIN A BROAD MOVEMENT WHICH PROVIDES NEW CURRENTS OF SPIRITUAL LEADERSHIP.

 

 

FOR THE MOST PART: Steady as she goes. A slow acceleration in the shifting of the poles has been underway for perhaps the past 100 years and the last three decades has shown an increase in the rate of acceleration.  This has appeared to accelerate even more during the past decade.

 

 

POLAR MOTION

What is happening to the motion of the Earth. For the overall summary of the status of polar motion CLICK HERE.  To see the current graphs of polar motion, CLICK HERE. Scroll down the page until you get to the black and white graphs with show the x and y coordinates of the North Spin Axis on two separate graphs.

 

AS PREVIOUSLY REPORTED:

The Y Max point, reported three weeks ago, has been passed and the North Spin Axis appears to moving fairly normally after giving us a bumpy peak.

 

AS OBSERVED IN PRIOR WEEKS:  We have passed the “Y Max” last week. Y Max is the point in the spiral track of the North Spin Axis when it is moving as far to the left on the XY chart of polar motion which is maintained by the IERS agency in France.  “Y Max” is where the North Spin Axis is titled as far as it can go towards North America down Longitude West 90.   The motion towards “Y Max” may have caused the increased movement of the North American Tectonic Plate to produce the interesting quake activity of the previous weeks.

 

As the Spin Axis begins its return towards the X Axis, the seismic activity may mirror what happened as it was moving outwards.  This may occur during the next Full Moon or New Moon in September.

 

http://maia.usno.navy.mil/xplot2.gif

 

http://maia.usno.navy.mil/yplot2.gif

 

 

 

 

MAGNETIC POLES – SHIFTING

What is happening to the magnetic fields of the Earth.  No real change during the past year:  a magnetic pole shift is not something to be very concerned about within this decade at least.

 

Currently, there is little of note.  Despite many claims, there are no apparent trends which will hold up to historical analysis of many different regions of the Earth.

 

 

 

 

Asteroids

As of June 04,

NASA’S

ESTIMATE:

“Potentially Hazardous Asteroids (PHAs) are space rocks larger than approximately 100m that can come closer to Earth than 0.05 AU. None of the known PHAs  (asteroids) are on a collision course with our planet, although astronomers are finding new ones all the time.”

 

 

PLANETS & ALIGNMENTS
(all time coordinates here and elsewhere are in UTC unless otherwise noted, dates for planetary alignments are derived from Home Planet Software using PC graphics, due to limitations of software and graphics display, actual timing may be off as much as three days, for scientific work, use a professional ephemeris for exact dates).  For background and the current information on planetary alignments go to the Earth Changes Almanac Calendar.  The Almanac lays out the planets and the lunar phases for entire year in advance to allow you to find the best and worst periods of weather, earthquake activity, ethereal “lunar” influences, etc.  

 

Daily Planet – click here for sheer artistic pleasure

Every day John Walker’s  (Home Planet Software) computer creates a new image of  hypothetical habitable planet, just one every day for the estimated 2 billion potential habitable planets in our Galaxy, which the Egyptians more or less named Nun, a mother Goddess from which all life flows.  Euro people nursery tales converted the name into the Milky Way.  http://www.fourmilab.ch/terranova/terranovag.html

 

Moon Perigee/Apogee/Phase Data  - click here to be always up to date

Earth/Moon Viewer by John Walker
http://www.fourmilab.ch/earthview/pacalc.html


Daily Solar System – click here to view Planet Alignments

The Home Planet software computes in real time the exact relative positions of the planets.  Go here to view today’s image of the solar system as seen from a heliocentric view (the sun in the center, you looking at the entire solar system as if it were a big pancake.  You can set any date and time.  You should generally ask the form to give you the “equal orbits” view so you can see all the planets.

http://www.fourmilab.ch/cgi-bin/uncgi/Solar

 

AS REPORTED LAST WEEK:  A new almanac is being constructed.  The links above are the main sources I use.  I am now going to incorporate them directly into the Bulletin Updates.  It still is not complete.  August is a bad time to get real work accomplished.  August is for people to relate to each other and the REALLY real world.

 

LUNAR PERIGEE/APOGEE/PHASE TABLE FOR Sept. 2004

 

                                             Distance

Full               30-Aug 2:23      378,000 km       (rounded)

Perigee         27-Aug 5:38      365105 km        F-2d20h

Apogee         8-Sep   2:43      404462 km        N-6d11h

New              14-Sep 14:29               

Perigee         22-Sep 21:13    369599 km        F-5d15h

Full               28-Sep 13:09               

Apogee         5-Oct    22:11    404326 km        F+7d 9h

 

For the remainder of 2004, see the August 25 EC Update

 

TODAY’S MOON

 

We are still in Lunation #1010 with the next New Moon on September 14 at 14:28 UTC.  As of September 1, the Moon this day is North of the Equator (in its North Node) 17 days past the New Moon.  It is now approximately 388,000 KM from the Earth. It is still 90% of the Full Moon (visibility or phase).  The next Perigee is Sept 22, about 5 and a half days before the next Full Moon.

 

SEISMIC SYZYGY WINDOWS

 

We are still in the August Full Moon Perigee syzygy but the influence is waning rapidly and should disappear by September 3.  Since September 8 is the Apogee of the Moon, seismic activity should null out at the lowest levels through to about September 11.  Thereafter, seismic activity should gradually pick up in tempo and magnitudes through to September 16, hold steady or dip for a few days, then increase suddenly on about September 20 through to September 24 for the Perigee, thereafter dip again, and then perhaps increase somewhat once again for the Full Moon on September 28.  September’s seismic activity should be somewhat weaker over all than August’s.  The next two strongest seismic syzygies for 2004 will be the New Moon of November 12 (Perigee within less than two days) and December 12 (Perigee within 20 hours).

 

For describing the peak danger periods for the most damaging earthquakes. these Perigee syzygies I will define arbitrarily as

 

November 10 – November 16

 

December 10 – December 15

 

Jim Berkland, the originator of using syzygy to define the most active periods of seismic activity has a more complex method for computing dates and you may want to use his methods for greater precision.  For details see the Syzygy website  

 

(Perigee = the Moon’s closest approach to the Earth during its monthly orbit which increases gravitational influence of the Moon by as much as 15%; Apogee = the Moon’s greatest distance from the Earth during its monthly orbit).   (Berkland has a more complex formula for syzygy and his dates are often different.)  For details see the Syzygy website.

 

THE NEXT PLANETARY ALIGNMENTS

For any “Home Planet Software” charts of the planets which are shown here or through URLS which are provided on this page, you can decipher which planet is which by counting the orbital rings if you do not know the signs which denote the planets. Mercury is 1 closest to the Sun, Venus is 2, Earth is 3, Mars is 4, Jupiter is 5, Saturn is 6, Uranus is 7, Neptune is 8, Pluto is 9, and both Planet X and Nibiru are bogus.

 

From August 3 to September 8, the three closest inner planets have been and will be in very close angles to each other. 

 

Mercury will align with Venus on September 8 to finish up a probably tempestuous season of exceptional solar activity.  

 

LIST OF ALIGNMENTS THROUGH SEPTEMBER 2004

 

September 8, 2004

Mercury | Venus
Most of the planets in general now begin breaking apart widely, the "Summer Knot" become  untied. From About September 10 onwards,  Mars and Jupiter will be in a slow forming virtual alignment

***September 28, 2004

***Mars is in near alignment with Jupiter as Mercury catches up to form a nearly a straight alignment with Mercury, within 5 degrees, with all other planets widely dispersed
***October 1, 2004

***Mercury | Mars | Jupiter perfected

 

PLANETARY ALIGNMENTS FOR THE NEXT 10 MONTHS

For the next 10 months, four particular periods stand out for their potential to induce major reactions in the solar atmosphere and pull out huge ionic storms, high sunspot counts, and major effects on the Earth’s weather.

 

The Summer Knot  July 27 through September 8

 

Major ups and downs in the sunspot counts, at least three major storm fronts betwixt now and September 15 or so.

 

The Triple Whammy September Surprise September 28, 2004 - October 1, 2004

 

Mercury | Mars | Jupiter in a triple alignment

Spots peak about the Fall Equinox and Weather turns into chaos by about October 1, followed by extreme Fall flooding by the middle of October in the usual places.

 

The Apogee Six Way Cluster Bomb

 

At or near the Earth’s Apogee (closest approach to the Sun) Mercury will once again align progressively with the inner planets during a 30 day period.  Expect an INTENSELY STORMY WINTER.

December 30, 2004  Mercury | Jupiter
Venus and Mars still close and Earth near Saturn alignment
January 13, 2005  Mercury & Mars close couple to
Venus | Pluto and Earth | Saturn
January 27, 2005  Mercury | Venus with Pluto close couple

 

The Spring Grand Alignment

Jupiter | Earth | Mercury | Sun | Venus

 

Beginning by about March 7, at least major peaks in the sunspot count should produce three major waves of early Spring storm fronts.  The largest peak should form up about the Spring Equinox and the largest storm front should blow in about the time of the Grand Alignment

 

March 14, 2005  Mercury | Saturn
Spring Alignments begin in three main spirals
March 21,2005  Mars | Pluto with a spiral forming in
Mercury | Earth | Jupiter and another in Venus | Uranus
March 30, 2005 Jupiter | Earth | Mercury | Sun | Venus
form a virtual straight line through the solar system with Mars and Pluto still closely coupled. Observers on Earth will only be able to physically see Jupiter rising on the Eastern horizon just after sunset and Saturn close to the Mid-heavens in the Western half of the sky. In the very early morning Mars and Uranus visible

 

Summer Ping Pong

 

June 7, 2005  Venus | Saturn with Mercury moving up in close alignment, followed on June 10 , 2005 with Mercury forming a triplet with Venus and Saturn as Earth couples with Pluto and
Mars | Neptune.  The timing of these alignments between these planets is not exact, the electromagnetic balances of the solar system will shift in a complex way, probably producing a number of ups and downs.

 

 

 

 

 

 

PLANET WATCHING  

For background and the current information on observable planets.

 

NO CHANGE THIS WEEK

 

NASA REPORTS ON URANUS:  “This week Uranus and Earth are having a close encounter. Uranus will be "at opposition" on August 27th, which means it's opposite the sun in the sky and as near to Earth as it gets: about 1.7 billion miles.  Because close encounters with Uranus are, in fact, so distant, the planet is not easy to see. Shining like a 6th magnitude star, Uranus is barely--barely!--visible to the unaided eye from the darkest observing sites. You can try to find it in the constellation Aquarius an hour or so after sunset.”

 

MWM:  Because it is in near perfect alignment with the Earth, it will rise as the Sun sets.  At midnight it should be close to the middle of the sky along the Zodiac belt.

 

 

 

 

SUNSPOTS

The events in the solar atmosphere which impact weather and climate patterns, the magnetic field and auroras, including forecasts for the week, month, and year ahead. CLICK HERE for background information.  

To follow the numbers below, click here to view the Solar Cycle 23 Chart. Or, get the data in a NOAA Table.

 

The Sunspot Count on August 31 was 11 after falling sharply along with the Solar Flux Index.  The Solar Flux sunk to 87 and then leveled off.

 

MORE PROBABLE THAN NOT:  Spots and flux counts will rise today and for the next additional few days.  Peak could be well over 150.

 

AS PREVIOUSLY PREDICTED:  the alignment on September 8, 2004 between Mercury | Venus should bring another high spike in the Sunspot Count, at least as high as 160.  This peak should form up about September One and bring late Summer storms no later than September 10.

 

MONTHLY AVERAGES IN SOLAR CYCLE 23
These numbers are reported by Jan Alvestad

JULY’S AVERAGE DAILY COUNT IN THE ISSN SERIES WAS UP BY NEARLY 10 FROM 43.2 TO 51.  Somewhere the Sun took a wrong turn.  This rise in the count is in the opposite direction to where it should be going.  August’s average, which is predicted by computers to drop to 34, may also hover near 50..

Over all, the sunspot average count (ISSN) for February 2004 was 46.0. March 2004  was even higher with the ISSN average count at 48.9  April’s count was radically lower at 39.3.  The May 2004 average count of 41.5 was SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN in April.  June 2004 was higher still with an average count of 43.2. and July took as even higher to an average count of 51. 

August could also be higher than the predicted average sunspot curves (based on computer modeling of the Solar Sunspot Cycles) and probably will be higher than June but lower than July.

 

 

 

 

SOLAR ACTIVITY

As reported by NASA/NOAA unless otherwise stated.  (Sudden surprises and huge storms are always possible even during sunspot minima periods such as the one we are currently headed into).  Descriptions and numbers are based on numbers as given by iway sources at about 1:00 – 3:00 PM Arizona Mountain Time (which does not have daylight savings time).

 

The Solar Wind was robust at 472.2 km/s this day while pushing a density of 1.0 protons/cm3”.   

 

GENERAL CONSENSUS:  NO CHANGE FROM LAST THURSDAY - Not much solar activity of note, not much is likely during the next 48 hours, very little probability of disturbances felt on Earth.

 

The Fluxgate Chart at the University of Alaska (which measures magnetic disturbances in the Earth’s atmosphere created by solar winds and ion storms) showed relatively little disturbance today. (as of this time, about 2 PM Mountain time US). To see the Fluxgate moment to moment, CLICK HERE.

 

A major rise in the Planetary A Index (a measure of the Earth’s magnetic field in the atmosphere) showed a large spike of about 35 on August 30 (normally this Index hovers around 10 most of the time). This disturbance was well displayed in the Fluxgate Charts.

 

NASA AURORA WATCH: “Auroras flared, briefly, over Canada and Scandinavia on August 31st when Earth entered a weak solar wind stream…Earth is still inside the stream, which is flowing from a coronal hole on the sun. More auroras are possible in the days ahead--but only at high latitudes.

 

NASA PREDICTS AS OF SEPTEMBER 1:  During the next 24/48 hours, probability for an M-class solar flare is at 10% and for an X-class solar flare is at 1%, with a generally 1% to 30% probability for minor to severe geomagnetic disturbances during the next 24/48 hours, depending upon latitude (higher the latitude, higher the probability). 

 

Jan Alvestad reports:  “The geomagnetic field was unsettled to major storm on August 31. Solar wind speed ranged between 363 and 548 km/sec under the influence of a high speed stream from coronal hole CH111...Solar flux measured at 20h UTC on 2.8 GHz was 88.1. The planetary A index was 28 (STAR Ap - based on the mean of three hour interval ap indices: 28.5)...At midnight the visible disk was spotless. The solar flare activity level was moderate. A total of 1 M class event was recorded during the day...A poorly defined coronal hole (CH111) in the northern hemisphere was in a geoeffective position on August 27-29.

 

Jan Alvestad predicts:  “The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to active on September 1 due to a coronal hole flow. Quiet to unsettled is likely on September 2-4.“  Alvestad also predicts a 0% probability of coronal holes, a 0% probability of CME’s, and a 0% probability of M and/or X Class Flares.

 

 

 

 

 

WORLD WEATHER SUMMARY

Those who have been following the patterns have seen that the correlations between sunspot peaks and major storm fronts coming in off the oceans to track across the continents is roughly pretty good, sometimes very much exactly on the mark.  Accordingly, our “sloppycasts” (approximate continental weather patterns) this past few years have proven out to be fairly worthwhile.

 

 

FOLLOWING THE SUNSPOTS, CURRENTLY ALL CONDITIONS ARE CALMING OR MUTING DOWN. 

 

BUT SOON CONDITIONS WILL GATHER GREATER FORCE AS SUNSPOTS CLIMB, AND THIS IS LIKELY TO OCCUR WITH HURRICANE FRANCIS

 

AS OBSERVED LAST MONTH:  weather patterns are tweaked out into chaotic extremes which fit no averages or generalities.  Forget predictions, expect anything.  THIS CONDITION WILL PERSIST THROUGH SEPTEMBER, CHAOS ALTERNATING WITH PERIODS OF CALMING.

 

EARTH WEATHER PREDICTION FOR THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS

(Northern Hemisphere) This “sloppycast” is based on sunspot counts, planetary alignments, and visual data shown on satellite and radar.

 

 

BEWARE HURRICANE FRANCIS

This is more probable than not a Category Five Grand Slam into the middle of Florida and up George to the Carolinas. 

 

WATCH THE SUNSPOTS, ON WHICH ALL THINGS IN THE WEATHER TURN.  IF THE NUMBER GOES UP TOMORROW, I HIGHLY RECOMMEND SPENDING TIME ANYWHERE ELSE BUT FLORIDA.

 

STAND PAT:  IS ANY PATTERN ANYWHERE NORMAL?  Nope.   I can’t keep up with it and therefore won’t.  MORE OF THE SAME.   No predictions will call the tune for any area.  More extremes during the next 30 days will be quite “normal”.

 

EARTH WEATHER PREDICTION FOR
SUMMER/FALL SEASON

(Northern Hemisphere) This “sloppycast” is based on sunspot counts, planetary alignments, and visual data shown on satellite and radar.