PHOENIX FIVE EARTH CHANGES BULLETIN

Please Note: This Bulletin is conceived as a System. It is still in an early stage of evolution. We intend to progressively link into this synopsis system all of the major news feeds of Planet Earth which articulate aspects of the profound historical Change In The Earth which is underway.

Earth Changes Bulletin Update As Of October 14 2004

You have heard of the Weather Report? Here exclusively is this week’s "Earth Report" - a short review of the “big picture” about how the dynamic changes in the Sun and the Earth are effecting our lives more and more intensely, with the latest prognostications and predictions for weathermen, farmers, investors, businessmen, and every man.

You may click here for the full text of the Earth Changes Bulletin Update for this week, or use this URL

http://www.michaelmandeville.com/earthmonitor/ecbulletins/2004/ecb_Oct_14_04.htm

On the geophysical front, FOR THIS AMAZING GLOBAL WARMING YEAR, sunspots are at 41 as of today and solar activity has been very low for the past week, though a coronal hole is producing a brisk solar wind and lots of magnetic disturbances. Weather conditions have very little solar energization and thus storms are now muting out their intensify and there are no longer any Hurricanes in the cue. No El Nino trend is apparent and North Pacific ocean is normalizing which will allow weather in North America to normalize during the next two weeks, perhaps giving the feel of an Indian Summer. World volcanism is about the same as last week with about 10 volcanoes paralleling St. Helens quite closely. Etna, Colima, and Kilauea are oozing lave and St. Helens may join them in the week ahead. Worldwide seismic activity is still down for this current New Moon – Perigee syzygy, but magnitudes are already up and activity is likely to become much stronger during the next 72 hours.

On the geopolitical front, once again the good news remains in the economy for the moment, the need to rebuild is still stimulating a uptick in the economy even if stock, dollar values are falling as oil prices surge past $55.00 per barrel of oil. This gives everything a little more life for the next few months in the amidst of a lot of uncertainties. Further good news is evident in the collapse of Bush’s “bubble”. The Presidential debates deflated it and Bush is unlikely now to be able to huff it back up. The bad news is that, as everyone now knows, the crisis in Iraq has reached critical condition. As things stand, the U.S. is losing the struggle in Iraq and helicopter evacuations will probably end this tragedy near the summer of 2005. But will a political disaster befall the U.S. before that moment? There appears to be several ticking bombs in the electoral machinery and Al Qaeda may not have to lift a finger to see the American political system stalemate into mass confusion. Most recently the Carter Center has put the world community on notice that the election machinery in Florida has been so slovenly managed and ludicrously manipulated once again by the Bush family, that every detail at every location must be intensively watched to insure a fair result

Go to detailed synopsis…

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NOTES

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Program Thesis:

What are we trying to do with the Earth Changes Bulletin?

Most news media do not handle technical and scientific subjects like geology and earth sciences very well. They don't understand the causes and effects of activities in the Sun and Earth. Accordingly, they often do not understand if, when, how, why to report earthquakes, volcanic activity, global warming effects The treatment often sounds absent-minded, poorly qualified, and frequently contains various technical errors. Seldom is the treatment entertaining and genuinely educational.

Based on new scientific principles which have emerged during the past thirty years, many of the dynamic activities of the Sun and Earth can be linked together to see how a range of effects are linked together. This makes it possible to paint "the big picture" into a perspective which explains many diverse events and processes, especially climate and weather patterns such as global warming and El Nino. From the "big picture", long range predictions can be made for weeks and even months ahead. The result is sophisticated cutting-edge information which is objective, balanced, astute, relevant, and can be easily seen and appreciated by lay audiences. The perspective is generally global, seldom parochial. For the framework of concepts, terms, and current conditions which are used or described in the these Bulletins, see the Earth Changes 2003 Almanac Calendar.

To see the internet resources which are used to prepare this Update, take a look at the Earth Monitor front page - http://www.michaelmandeville.com/earthmonitor/

PREVIOUS
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UPDATES

SPONSORING:

THE COMING ECONOMIC COLLAPSE OF 2006, which puts today, tomorrow, and the trends together into the Cayce 25 year economic cycle which will “bottom” in 2006/2007. Click here to download

THIS BOOK STILL COOKS AND IT WILL COOK THE POLITICIANS AND THE ECONOMY ALL THE WAY THROUGH TO 2008: This synthesis is far ahead of the daily digests in all halls of the internet media: so far (since may 2003) the track record on this set of predictions for 2003-2008 is running 100 per cent. If you have not purchased this book, you will remain ignorant of the main dynamics which are rapidly changing everything.

LATEST UPDATE NOTE AS OF OCTOBER 14, 2004:

So far so good. No “October Surprise” has appeared. But, of course, the month is only half over. For maximum reactivity with mass consciousness, any major contrived manipulation will need to occur during the next five days. On all economic fronts, hang tuff. The bubble will hang in there for a little while longer even if it is currently sagging under the high oil prices. They will come down this Winter and the rebuilding boom in the SE section of the country will keep the economy firm. Stocks will go back with the decline in oil prices and so will the value of the dollar. All long term projection for the collapse in 2006 is still right on target.

LATEST UPDATE NOTE AS OF SEPTEMBER 29, 2004:

The main proviso in all things is “The October Surprise”. This is such a strong psychic impression among a great many, I will now be surprised if there is NOT an “October Surprise”. Since the October surprise is widely expected to be highly negative, it most likely will influence all markets negatively. In the main, hold to the course laid out months ago. There will likely be some recovery in the equity markets to rise the DJI closer to 10,500 before it heads South for good sometime next year, probably early. Oil prices are substantially higher than anyone thought and part of the reason is completely logical, oil production is depressed by weather and political disturbances, while Asian demand is soaring at a much more rapid rate than expected. This is softening equity markets in the U.S. and inflating the petro-dollar with rapidly rising international commodity prices. I normally stay away from gold, but it looks good at this time, but only for a quick flip during the next year. But don’t buy unless you “know when to fold ‘em”.

LATEST UPDATE NOTE AS OF SEPTEMBER 1, 2004:

All projections are on track. This month and next more probable than not are the last months of the last bubble in this 25 year leg of the long term economic cycle. When equities begin to slide this Fall, they will hunt up and down sporadically as the chaos deepens through 2005. Absolute Bottom will be found in 2006 or in 2007 and a very slow increase (not driven by Bull speculation) will probably begin to manifest in 2008. In the interim period, most of the “Fortune 500” will disappear in their current form and their remnants will reappear as vastly different companies..

HOUSEKEEPING

MANDEVILLE IS ON THE RADIO EVERY WEDNESDAY WITH

Alex Merklinger (Millennium Radio) show at 6 PM Arizona Time (also 6 PM Pacific Daylight Saving Time). Regular Weekly Update For The Earth Changes Bulletin. To find Iway archives and stations, see Millennium Radio Network.

Begin Synopsis

As stated in the “Coming Economic Collapse of 2006”, the nature of human politics reflects the communication abilities of the human species. As we transform the media, as we have been on the Iway, we will transform human politics and the entire Earth. Making the way for the New Earth is operationally equivalent to making a new Media on the Iway. Not that that is all that there is to it. Not by a long shot…but IT IS one of the essentials we need to dissolve the blockages and dance around the tyrannies.

SPIRITUAL WATCH

How to converge and express the spirit of mass transformation into manifestation, HOW to be, IS the question. How to do is the praxis of the time. Examining this question, probing it, is the chief trendline of this year.

DON’T LET UP. KEEP THE RESOLUTE FOCUS.

KEEP FOCUSING ON PEACE, DISENGAGEMENT FROM HOSTILITY, RESOLUTION OF CONFLICT,

WALKING AWAY FROM WARS AND LEADERS WHO CREATE WARS

A great turning towards peace is underway in the hearts and minds of a great mass of humanity, EVEN AS the merchants of dominance, hate, revenge, and violence appear to crow even more loudly on the world stage or can be found eagerly arranging a major increase in the tempo of bomb explosions to murder and maim even more people. A consciousness is gathering greater focus to dissolve away the entire Bush-Alqaeda continuum of absolutism and militarism and replace its brutalities with profound movement en masse towards peaceful solutions.

Look for it. Greet it. Nourish it with love.

BREATH FREE. Let go of everything which is disturbed, distorted, or weird. Let go of everything which is forced, contrived, hidden, manipulative, and/or constrictive. Keep flowing with the rising tide of spiritual energies which are filling many thirsty souls. The old patterns are falling away. Transition continues. Embrace new relationships which are trying to form in your life if they are honest and straightforward and provide a new openness. Forget the fears of the unknown, embrace all that which lifts your life into the light of a greater understanding and relationship with the all.

EVERYTHING IS WORKING OUT DIFFERENTLY THAN PEOPLE ARE CURRENTLY FEARING OR PROJECTING. IT WILL CONTINUE TO BE SO. In a short while, some will come forth giving witness to a great energy which has come into their lives, literally, as if the hand of God was upon them. This is becoming more and more apparent and these words will have greater meaning by the end of the year.

The “Great Purification” predicted by the Hopi, Maya, Q’ero, and many others continues. How amazing that these ancient oral traditions could tune into last year and this one to advise us that this was a period of profound historical turning involving

The Great Purification

of the Earth? For additional discussion, see the commentary of May 19, 2004 and the commentary of June 16, 2004.

THE NEW BASIS IS GESTATING….

THE time to link the spiritual communities of the Earth. The Whole Earth. IT HAS BECOME URGENT TO LINK THE SPIRITUAL COMMUNITIES WITHIN A BROAD MOVEMENT WHICH PROVIDES NEW CURRENTS OF SPIRITUAL LEADERSHIP.

FOR THE MOST PART: Steady as she goes. A slow acceleration in the shifting of the poles has been underway for perhaps the past 100 years and the last three decades has shown an increase in the rate of acceleration. This has appeared to accelerate even more during the past decade.

POLAR MOTION

What is happening to the motion of the Earth. For the overall summary of the status of polar motion CLICK HERE. To see the current graphs of polar motion, CLICK HERE. Scroll down the page until you get to the black and white graphs with show the x and y coordinates of the North Spin Axis on two separate graphs.

No change as of October Day 14, 2004: North Spin Axis appears to moving fairly normally. It is currently tightening up rapidly as it heads into its minima phase which will begin in 2006.

http://maia.usno.navy.mil/xplot2.gif

http://maia.usno.navy.mil/yplot2.gif

MAGNETIC POLES – SHIFTING

What is happening to the magnetic fields of the Earth. No real change during the past year: a magnetic pole shift is not something to be very concerned about within this decade at least.

Currently, there is little of note. Despite many claims, there are no apparent trends which will hold up to historical analysis of many different regions of the Earth.

Asteroids

As of June 04,

NASA’S

ESTIMATE:

“Potentially Hazardous Asteroids (PHAs) are space rocks larger than approximately 100m that can come closer to Earth than 0.05 AU. None of the known PHAs (asteroids) are on a collision course with our planet, although astronomers are finding new ones all the time.”

PLANETS & ALIGNMENTS
(all time coordinates here and elsewhere are in UTC unless otherwise noted, dates for planetary alignments are derived from Home Planet Software using PC graphics, due to limitations of software and graphics display, actual timing may be off as much as three days, for scientific work, use a professional ephemeris for exact dates). For background and the current information on planetary alignments go to the Earth Changes Almanac Calendar. The Almanac lays out the planets and the lunar phases for entire year in advance to allow you to find the best and worst periods of weather, earthquake activity, ethereal “lunar” influences, etc.

Daily Planet – click here for sheer artistic pleasure

Every day John Walker’s (Home Planet Software) computer creates a new image of hypothetical habitable planet, just one every day for the estimated 2 billion potential habitable planets in our Galaxy, which the Egyptians more or less named Nun, a mother Goddess from which all life flows. Euro people nursery tales converted the name into the Milky Way. http://www.fourmilab.ch/terranova/terranovag.html

Moon Perigee/Apogee/Phase Data - click here to be always up to date

Earth/Moon Viewer by John Walker
http://www.fourmilab.ch/earthview/pacalc.html

Daily Solar System – click here to view Planet Alignments

The Home Planet software computes in real time the exact relative positions of the planets. Go here to view today’s image of the solar system as seen from a heliocentric view (the sun in the center, you looking at the entire solar system as if it were a big pancake. You can set any date and time. You should generally ask the form to give you the “equal orbits” view so you can see all the planets.

http://www.fourmilab.ch/cgi-bin/uncgi/Solar

LUNAR PERIGEE/APOGEE/PHASE TABLE FOR THE REMAINDER OF 2004

Distance

Apogee 5-Oct 22:11 404326 km F+7d 9h

New 14-Oct 2:48

Perigee 18-Oct 0:04 367757 km N+3d21h

Full 28-Oct 3:08

Apogee 2-Nov 18:10 404998 km F+5d15h

New 12-Nov 14:27

Perigee 14-Nov 13:55 362312 km N+1d23h

Full 26-Nov 20:08

Apogee 30-Nov 11:26 405951 km F+3d15h

Perigee 12-Dec 21:31 357985 km N+ 20h

New 12-Dec 1:29

Full 26-Dec 15:07

Apogee 27-Dec 19:16 406487 km F+1d 4h

For 2005, see the August 25 EC Update

TODAY’S MOON

We are in Lunation #1012 and now only 1 day into New Moon of October 14 at 02:47 UTC. As of October Day 14, the Moon this day is now high in its South Node (South of the Equator 20 hours past the New Moon at this writing and about 3 days approaching the next Perigee. It is now approximately 375,00 KM from the Earth. It is 0% of the Full Moon (visibility or phase).

SEISMIC SYZYGY WINDOWS

The Next Perigee is October 18.

October 12 to October 20: The next important syzygy period will be the New Moon Near Perigee which runs from October 14 – October 18. Add two days to either side, we have an eight day period of higher seismic activity than normal…

The two strongest seismic syzygies remaining for 2004 will be the New Moon of November 12 (Perigee within less than two days) and December 12 (Perigee within 20 hours).

For describing the peak danger periods for the most damaging earthquakes. these Perigee syzygies I will define arbitrarily as

November 10 – November 16

December 10 – December 15

Jim Berkland, the originator of using syzygy to define the most active periods of seismic activity has a more complex method for computing dates and you may want to use his methods for greater precision. For details see the Syzygy website

(Perigee = the Moon’s closest approach to the Earth during its monthly orbit which increases gravitational influence of the Moon by as much as 15%; Apogee = the Moon’s greatest distance from the Earth during its monthly orbit). (Berkland has a more complex formula for syzygy and his dates are often different.) For details see the Syzygy website.

THE NEXT PLANETARY ALIGNMENTS

For any “Home Planet Software” charts of the planets which are shown here or through URLS which are provided on this page, you can decipher which planet is which by counting the orbital rings if you do not know the signs which denote the planets. Mercury is 1 closest to the Sun, Venus is 2, Earth is 3, Mars is 4, Jupiter is 5, Saturn is 6, Uranus is 7, Neptune is 8, Pluto is 9, and both Planet X and Nibiru are bogus.

LIST OF ALIGNMENTS THROUGH TO DECEMBER 21, 2004

For October and November there are NO significant alignments except possibly for the November 20 alignment of Mercury | Uranus. Since Uranus is so far out, it is not likely to induce a strong em bias in combination with Mercury to pull out much solar activity. Accordingly, solar activity should stay close to MINIMA until very close to December. Weather and climate patterns should become more regular and much more modest in their dynamics.

An alignment of Venus | Jupiter on December 3 should prove productive of a new round of solar flares and sunspots beginning during the last week of November This activity will introduce an even greater flare-up during the first week in December for the Mercury | Earth alignment on December 10

October 28 Mercury | Pluto

all others widely dispersed

November 16 Mercury | Neptune

November 20 Mercury | Uranus

December 3 Venus | Jupiter

December 10 Mercury | Earth

PLANETARY ALIGNMENTS FOR LATE DECEMBER 2004 – JUNE 2005

For late December through to June 2005, four particular periods stand out for their potential to induce major reactions in the solar atmosphere and pull out huge ionic storms, high sunspot counts, and major effects on the Earth’s weather.

The Aphelion Six Way Cluster Bomb

At or near the Earth’s Apogee (closest approach to the Sun) Mercury will once again align progressively with the inner planets during a 30 day period. Expect an INTENSELY STORMY WINTER.

December 30, 2004 Mercury | Jupiter
Venus and Mars still close and Earth near Saturn alignment
January 13, 2005 Mercury & Mars close couple to
Venus | Pluto and Earth | Saturn
January 27, 2005 Mercury | Venus with Pluto close couple

The Spring Grand Alignment

Jupiter | Earth | Mercury | Sun | Venus

Beginning by about March 7, at least major peaks in the sunspot count should produce three major waves of early Spring storm fronts. The largest peak should form up about the Spring Equinox and the largest storm front should blow in about the time of the Grand Alignment

March 14, 2005 Mercury | Saturn
Spring Alignments begin in three main spirals
March 21,2005 Mars | Pluto with a spiral forming in
Mercury | Earth | Jupiter and another in Venus | Uranus
March 30, 2005 Jupiter | Earth | Mercury | Sun | Venus
form a virtual straight line through the solar system with Mars and Pluto still closely coupled. Observers on Earth will only be able to physically see Jupiter rising on the Eastern horizon just after sunset and Saturn close to the Mid-heavens in the Western half of the sky. In the very early morning Mars and Uranus visible

Summer Ping Pong

June 7, 2005 Venus | Saturn with Mercury moving up in close alignment, followed on June 10 , 2005 with Mercury forming a triplet with Venus and Saturn as Earth couples with Pluto and
Mars | Neptune. The timing of these alignments between these planets is not exact, the electromagnetic balances of the solar system will shift in a complex way, probably producing a number of ups and downs.

PLANET WATCHING

For background and the current information on observable planets.

NASA'S DATA ON NEAR EARTH ASTEROIDS: "Potentially Hazardous Asteroids (PHAs) are space rocks larger than approximately 100m that can come closer to Earth than 0.05 AU. None of the known PHAs are on a collision course with our planet, although astronomers are finding new ones all the time.”

On 29 Sep 2004 there were 633 known Potentially Hazardous Asteroids. For October 2004, there will be no Earth-asteroid encounters.

NASA – “LUNAR ECLIPSE: Mark your calendar! On Wednesday, Oct. 27th, sky watchers in the Americas can see a lovely-red total eclipse of the moon.” [full story]

NASA – “CRESCENT SUNSET: In Hawaii yesterday, just before sunset, the moon glided in front of the sun producing a partial solar eclipse. On the beach at Wailea, Maui, Rob Ratkowski took this picture of the sun with a strange bite taken out of it.”

SUNSPOTS

The events in the solar atmosphere which impact weather and climate patterns, the magnetic field and auroras, including forecasts for the week, month, and year ahead. CLICK HERE for background information.

To follow the numbers below, click here to view the Solar Cycle 23 Chart. Or, get the data in a NOAA Table.

The Sunspot Count on October was 41, back up more or less to the long week- long plateau of the first week of October, after a two day dip to ZERO. Solar Flux was 87, for close to the low 90’s during late September and early October.

Date       Flux  Sunspots  Area

2004 10 13   87     41      190

It looks like we are very close this first part of October to an average baseline value as Solar Cycle 23 slides down into its Minima during 2005/2006.

During the next eight months, expect sunspot counts to dip up and down between zero and 50 or so, hovering often in this 30 - 40 range.

There will probably be some major peaks up as high as 100 or so when Mercury and Venus connect with Earth, Mars, or Jupiter.

MONTHLY AVERAGES IN SOLAR CYCLE 23
These numbers are reported by Jan Alvestad

Over all, the sunspot average count (ISSN) for February 2004 was 46.0. March 2004 was even higher with the ISSN average count at 48.9 April’s count was radically lower at 39.3. The May 2004 average count of 41.5 was SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN in April. June 2004 was higher still with an average count of 43.2. and July took as even higher to an average count of 51. August’s count dropped the average to 40, which returns us to the point on the general curve which we reached during April 2004.

The law of averages finally caught with the Sun during September. For the first time all year, sunspot activity fell below the 32.8 predicted average monthly count and was only 27.7.

More and more, now and for the next half dozen years, the Sun will influence Earth’s atmosphere and weather less and less. Global Warming and El Nino type of phenomena will be more and more influential compared to the solar input. The geo-data we gather during the next three years about weather, climate, the Arctic, Antarctic, Drought Regions, etc. will be extremely valuable in telling us what the true long-term geo-trends really are.

SOLAR ACTIVITY

As reported by NASA/NOAA unless otherwise stated. (Sudden surprises and huge storms are always possible even during sunspot minima periods such as the one we are currently headed into). Descriptions and numbers are based on numbers as given by iway sources at about 1:00 – 3:00 PM Arizona Mountain Time (which does not have daylight savings time).

The Solar Wind was brisk at : 520.0 km/s this hour while pushing a thick density of 3.4 protons/cm3”.

Substantial activity yesterday and today, more likely.

Fluxgate Magnetometer: The Fluxgate Chart at the University of Alaska (which measures magnetic disturbances in the Earth’s atmosphere created by solar winds and ion storms) has shown two very large disturbances during the past 36 hours. (as of this time, about 2 PM Mountain time US). To see the Fluxgate moment to moment, CLICK HERE.

NASA PREDICTS not much AS OF OCTOBER DAY 14: “A solar wind stream flowing from the indicated coronal hole will probably miss Earth, blowing high above the northern hemisphere of our planet” During the next 24/48 hours, probability for an M-class solar flare is at 15% and for an X-class solar flare is at 1%, with a generally 5% - 40% probability for minor to severe geomagnetic disturbances during the next 24/48 hours, depending upon latitude (higher the latitude, higher the probability).

Jan Alvestad reports: “The geomagnetic field was unsettled to minor storm on October 13. Solar wind speed ranged between 370 and 520 km/sec under the influence of a stream from coronal hole CH118.The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled on October 14-15 and mostly quiet on October 16. Solar flux measured at 20h UTC on 2.8 GHz was 87.1. The planetary A index was 35 (STAR Ap - based on the mean of three hour interval ap indices: 32.8)...At midnight there were 2 spotted regions on the visible solar disk. The solar flare activity level was low. A single C class event was recorded during the day...October 11-13: No obviously Earth directed CMEs observed...A recurrent coronal hole (CH118) in the southern hemisphere was in a geoeffective position on October 8-9. A poorly defined coronal hole (CH119) in the southern hemisphere could rotate into a geoeffective position on October 14.”

Jan Alvestad predicts: “The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled on October 14-15 and mostly quiet on October 16.“ Alvestad also predicts a 20%-60%% probability of coronal holes, a 0-20% probability of CME’s, and a 0-20% probability of M and/or X Class Flares.

WORLD WEATHER SUMMARY

Those who have been following the patterns have seen that the correlations between sunspot peaks and major storm fronts coming in off the oceans to track across the continents is roughly pretty good, sometimes very much exactly on the mark. Accordingly, our “sloppycasts” (approximate continental weather patterns) this past few years have proven out to be fairly worthwhile.

AS REPORTED LAST WEEK - SSSHHHH….don’t look now, but Hurricane season has virtually collapsed…right along with peak sunspot counts....WHAT A PERFECT CORRELATION!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

AS PREDICTED LAST WEEK: NORMAL WEATHER WITHIN NORMAL RANGES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. NO MORE HURRICANES THIS YEAR OR ONLY LOW INTENSITY HURRICANES. There is no reason to suspect an increase in Sunspot activity to energize the Earth’s atmosphere and weather. The Sun is declining now gracefully towards its MINIMA in its 11 year cycle and there are no new planetary alignments which will form up during the next few weeks to provoke the Sun into a new round of electromagnetic storms.

FOR THE U.S. WEST COAST, ALASKA, AND JAPAN:

AS PREVIOUSLY REPORTED – OF MAJOR INTEREST: as reported in prior weeks, a huge spot of warm water, considerably above average range, concentrated in a huge zone North of the Hawaiian Islands. The previous zone between Hawaii and the California coast has virtually disappeared. This must be having a major impact on all marine and West Coast weather patterns.

This is not your normal pattern at all and it will create some El Nino characteristics in the Fall Weather for the Gulf of Alaska and the Pacific Coast of North America.