PHOENIX FIVE EARTH CHANGES BULLETIN

Monitoring The Changes In The Earth

edited by Michael Wells Mandeville copyright November Day 3 2004

                                                                                                             

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Please Note:  This Bulletin is conceived as a System.  It is still in an early stage of evolution.  We intend to progressively link into this synopsis system all of the major news feeds of Planet Earth which articulate aspects of the profound historical Change In The Earth which is underway.

 

 

 

Earth Changes Bulletin Update As Of November 3 2004

You have heard of the Weather Report?  Here exclusively is this week’s  "Earth Report" - a short review of the “big picture” about how the dynamic changes in the Sun and the Earth are effecting our lives more and more intensely, with the latest prognostications and predictions for weathermen, farmers, investors, businessmen, and every man.

 

You may click here for the full text of the Earth Changes Bulletin Update for this week, or use this  URL

 

http://www.michaelmandeville.com/earthmonitor/ecbulletins/2004/ecb_Nov_3_04.htm

 

 

TIME TO HIT THE RESET BUTTON AND REBOOT

 

Don’t react, go to center, get clear, release, and grieve…the Fourth Age is dying rapidly now… much more rapidly than we thought, its institutions and identities are beyond saving… let it go, let go, get to center…flow into God, let God flow into you…don’t speculate, don’t analyze, don’t react to the shtuff…clear…clean out the past four years…we are now free to grieve the death of everything we detested…let it go…let it go…let it die.   As you re-center in God, find the realization that this is the final moment you have been waiting for to end your connections and involvements with the illusions and delusions of all that which has betrayed the divine within each and brought greed, war, and destruction over the Earth.

 

The destroyers belong to each other, this is now the final time of their fatal embrace.  Let them love their wars…they have greatly desired the bitter wines of their hatreds and violence, they have lusted greatly for their Armageddon, and they shall have it. 

 

The die has been cast with a thousand artifices and illusions.  With the excellence of its manner of casting,  God has delivered to you your own freedom from the delusions and spells of the Mass Sorcerers, indeed, from the entire age, if you will but realize it.  Clear yourself and your life to find now the sense of movement and direction to separate your life from the dying culture which is putrefying all around you. There is no saving it…as Buckminster Fuller observed many decades ago, the old order is never saved, the new order merely grows up around it to eventually takes its place.  So it will come to pass now in an intense period of vast change during the next twenty years.

 

On the geophysical front,  FOR THIS AMAZING GLOBAL WARMING YEAR,  like almost exactly as last week, sunspots are an amazing (and unexpected) 110 as of today and  solar activity is unsettled to active and is expected to stay active for a few more days.  Sunspots should decline rapidly again, BUT THIS IS NO HELP FOR THE WEEK AHEAD.  ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS ARE ON THE WAY, IN FACT FOR NOVEMBER AND DECEMBER SEVERAL ROUNDS ARE ON THE WAY!!!!  No El Nino trend is apparent BUT conditions along the equator are edging in that direction.  Another planetary alignment on November 20 will once again pull up the sunspot count (and more storm fronts).   This past week world volcanism declined and only a few volcanoes are now paralleling St. Helens with sporadic steam, gas and small ash emissions. Earthquakes were likewise depressed, but you couldn’t convince the Puget Sound and British Columbia crowd, who saw 9 modest quakes and a large 6.8 strike a few hundred kilometers off shore along the Juan De Fuca Tectonic Plate.

 

On the geopolitical front, The truly bad news remains, now a continuing saga, is that the crisis in Iraq has reached critical condition. Even the man who oversaw the 1991 invasion and victory over Iraq now apparently (is rumored through AP News) is saying that the U.S. is losing the struggle in Iraq,  As things stand, it is obvious from Mars that the U.S. is losing the struggle in Iraq and helicopter evacuations will probably end this tragedy near the summer of 2005. 

 

Go to detailed synopsis…

 

 

 

This hidden column on the right  is available for links, banners, and icons of Earth Changes Bulletin subscribers who have made their annual donation.  Inquire by sending query for exact procedure by sending a REPLY to the Earth Changes Bulletin weekly email update.  YOU MUST HAVE BEEN SUBSCRIBED FOR AT LEAST 30 DAYS TO QUALIFY (or a previous subscriber).. 

 

NOTES

Grayed items are not yet operational

 

 

 

Program Thesis:

What are we trying to do with the Earth Changes Bulletin?

Most news media do not handle technical and scientific subjects like geology and earth sciences very well.  They don't understand the causes and effects of activities in the Sun and Earth.  Accordingly, they often do not understand if, when, how, why to report earthquakes, volcanic activity, global warming effects  The treatment often sounds absent-minded, poorly qualified, and frequently contains various technical errors.  Seldom is the treatment entertaining and genuinely educational.

Based on new scientific principles which have emerged during the past thirty years, many of the dynamic activities of the Sun and Earth can be linked together to see how a range of effects are linked together.  This makes it possible to paint "the big picture" into a perspective which explains many diverse events and processes, especially climate and weather patterns such as global warming and El Nino. From the "big picture", long range predictions can be made for weeks and even months ahead.  The result is sophisticated cutting-edge information which is objective, balanced, astute, relevant, and can be easily seen and appreciated by lay audiences.  The perspective is generally global, seldom parochial. For the framework of concepts, terms, and current conditions which are used or described in the these Bulletins, see the Earth Changes 2003 Almanac Calendar.

 

To see the internet resources which are used to prepare this Update, take a look at the Earth Monitor front page - http://www.michaelmandeville.com/earthmonitor/

 

 

PREVIOUS
WEEKLY

UPDATES

 

November 3, 2004

October 27, 2004

October 20, 2004

October 14, 2004

October 6, 2004

September 29, 2004

September 22, 2004

September 15, 2004

September 8, 2004

September 1, 2004

August 25, 2004

August 18, 2004

August 11, 2004

July 28, 2004

July 21, 2004

July 14, 2004

July 7, 2004

June 30, 2004

June 23, 2004

June 16, 2004

June 9, 2004

June 2, 2004

May 26, 2004

May 19, 2004

May 12, 2004

 

 

SPONSORING:

THE COMING ECONOMIC COLLAPSE OF 2006, which puts today, tomorrow, and the trends together into the Cayce 25 year economic cycle which will “bottom” in 2006/2007.  Click here to download

 

THIS BOOK STILL COOKS AND IT WILL COOK THE POLITICIANS AND THE ECONOMY ALL THE WAY THROUGH TO 2008:  This synthesis is far ahead of the daily digests in all halls of the internet media: so far (since may 2003) the track record on this set of predictions for 2003-2008 is running 100 per cent.  If you have not purchased this book, you will remain ignorant of the main dynamics which are rapidly changing everything. 

 

LATEST UPDATE NOTE AS OF NOVEMBER 3, 2004: 

On all economic fronts, hang tuff. The bubble will hang in there for a little while longer even if it is currently sagging under the high oil prices.  Oil prices will come down this Winter and the rebuilding boom in the SE section of the country will keep the economy firm.  Stocks will go back up with the decline in oil prices and so will the value of the dollar. All long term projection for the collapse in 2006 is still right on target. The main proviso in all things is Al Qaeda.  The re-election of Bush will, more probable than not, bring Osama Bin Laden to order another major round of terrorist attacks against the U.S. with in a few weeks.  Such attacks will likely have a major negative impact on the U.S. economy.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

HOUSEKEEPING

 

MANDEVILLE IS ON THE RADIO EVERY WEDNESDAY WITH

Alex Merklinger (Millennium Radio) show at 6 PM Arizona Time (also 6 PM Pacific Daylight Saving Time).   Regular Weekly Update For The Earth Changes Bulletin.  To find Iway archives and stations, see Millennium Radio Network

 

 

 

Begin Synopsis

 

 As stated in the “Coming Economic Collapse of 2006”, the nature of human politics reflects the communication abilities of the human species.  As we transform the media, as we have been on the Iway, we will transform human politics and the entire Earth.  Making the way for the New Earth is operationally equivalent to making a new Media on the Iway. Not that that is all that there is to it.  Not by a long shot…but IT IS one of the essentials we need to dissolve the blockages and dance around the tyrannies.

 

 

SPIRITUAL WATCH

How to converge and express the spirit of mass transformation into manifestation, HOW to be, IS the question. How to do is the praxis of the time.  Examining this question, probing it, is the chief trendline of this year.

 

UNDERTAKE A RESOLUTE FOCUS

 

WALK AWAY FROM THE COMING WARS AND THE LEADERS WHO ARE PUSHING US INTO THE WARS OR INTO THEIR INDIRECT SUPPORT. 

 

UTTERLY REFUSE THEM IN EVERY WAY THAT YOU CAN.

 

A great turning towards peace is underway in the hearts and minds of a great mass of humanity,

 

REGRETFULLY, A LARGE PROPORTION OF THE AMERICAN PEOPLE ARE STILL SOUND ASLEEP UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF UGLY EMOTIONS AND A THOUSAND NIGHTMARES OF SELF-DOUBT AND ACUTE DENIAL OF SELF-WORTH.  IT APPEARS THAT AT LEAST A THIRD OF THE POPULATION IS BARELY ABOVE AN EMOTIONAL AGE-LEVEL OF 8 AND CAN OFFER LITTLE MORE THAN SERVING AS FASCIST FODDER.

 

Accordingly, America will remain under the thrall of lies and conceits while  the merchants of dominance, hate,  revenge, empire-building, violence, and conquest crow even more loudly on the world stage. 

 

But even as they initiate to undertake a great militarization of North America for an ambitious expansion of empire-building over the Arab oil producing states, a consciousness is gathering greater focus to dissolve away the entire Bush-Alqaeda continuum of absolutism and militarism and replace its brutalities with profound movement en masse towards peaceful solutions.

 

The gathering  movement did not wax strong enough to end the Bush Presidency, but perhaps the movement will never function successfully with the corrupted, archaic forms of the old United States.

 

Perhaps the movement has a greater destiny.  Look for it.  Greet it.  Nourish it with love.

 

BREATH FREE. Let go of everything which is disturbed, distorted, or weird.  Let go of everything which is forced, contrived, hidden, manipulative, and/or constrictive. Keep flowing with the rising tide of spiritual energies which are filling many thirsty souls.  The old patterns are falling away.  Transition continues. Embrace new relationships which are trying to form in your life if they are honest and straightforward and provide a new openness. Forget the fears of the unknown, embrace all that which lifts your life into the light of a greater understanding and relationship with the all.

 

EVERYTHING IS WORKING OUT DIFFERENTLY THAN PEOPLE ARE CURRENTLY FEARING OR PROJECTING.  IT WILL CONTINUE TO BE SO.  In a short while, some will come forth giving witness to a great energy which has come into their lives, literally, as if the hand of God was upon them.  This is becoming more and more apparent and these words will have greater meaning by the end of the year.

 

 

 

The “Great Purification” predicted by the Hopi, Maya, Q’ero, and many others continues.  How amazing that these ancient oral traditions could tune into last year and this one to advise us that this was a period of profound historical turning involving

The Great Purification

of the Earth? For additional discussion, see the commentary of May 19, 2004 and the commentary of June 16, 2004.

 

THE NEW BASIS IS GESTATING….

THE time to link the spiritual communities of the Earth. The Whole Earth. IT HAS BECOME URGENT TO LINK THE SPIRITUAL COMMUNITIES WITHIN A BROAD MOVEMENT WHICH PROVIDES NEW CURRENTS OF SPIRITUAL LEADERSHIP.

 

 

FOR THE MOST PART: Steady as she goes. A slow acceleration in the shifting of the poles has been underway for perhaps the past 100 years and the last three decades has shown an increase in the rate of acceleration.  This has appeared to accelerate even more during the past decade.

 

 

POLAR MOTION

What is happening to the motion of the Earth. For the overall summary of the status of polar motion CLICK HERE.  To see the current graphs of polar motion, CLICK HERE. Scroll down the page until you get to the black and white graphs with show the x and y coordinates of the North Spin Axis on two separate graphs.

 

No change as of November Day 3, 2004:  North Spin Axis appears to moving fairly normally.  It is currently tightening up rapidly as it heads into its minima phase which will begin in 2006.

 

The Wobble Track is showing continued tightening of the Chandler’s

Wobble Spiral, as should be, and the track seems to be conforming with a continued acceleration in the rate of drift, but this can be by no means certain until this 7 year cycle is over.  In about two years we will be able to locate the minimum spiral of motion and then look for the average 7 year "location" of this past seven years for comparison with previous cycles.

 

http://maia.usno.navy.mil/xplot2.gif

 

http://maia.usno.navy.mil/yplot2.gif

 

 

 

 

 

 

MAGNETIC POLES – SHIFTING

What is happening to the magnetic fields of the Earth.  No real change during the past year:  a magnetic pole shift is not something to be very concerned about within this decade at least.

 

Currently, there is little of note.  Despite many claims, there are no apparent trends which will hold up to historical analysis of many different regions of the Earth.

 

 

 

 

Asteroids

As of June 04,

NASA’S

ESTIMATE:

“Potentially Hazardous Asteroids (PHAs) are space rocks larger than approximately 100m that can come closer to Earth than 0.05 AU. None of the known PHAs  (asteroids) are on a collision course with our planet, although astronomers are finding new ones all the time.”

 

 

PLANETS & ALIGNMENTS
(all time coordinates here and elsewhere are in UTC unless otherwise noted, dates for planetary alignments are derived from Home Planet Software using PC graphics, due to limitations of software and graphics display, actual timing may be off as much as three days, for scientific work, use a professional ephemeris for exact dates).  For background and the current information on planetary alignments go to the Earth Changes Almanac Calendar.  The Almanac lays out the planets and the lunar phases for entire year in advance to allow you to find the best and worst periods of weather, earthquake activity, ethereal “lunar” influences, etc.  

 

Daily Planet – click here for sheer artistic pleasure

Every day John Walker’s  (Home Planet Software) computer creates a new image of  hypothetical habitable planet, just one every day for the estimated 2 billion potential habitable planets in our Galaxy, which the Egyptians more or less named Nun, a mother Goddess from which all life flows.  Euro people nursery tales converted the name into the Milky Way.  http://www.fourmilab.ch/terranova/terranovag.html

 

Moon Perigee/Apogee/Phase Data  - click here to be always up to date

Earth/Moon Viewer by John Walker
http://www.fourmilab.ch/earthview/pacalc.html


Daily Solar System – click here to view Planet Alignments

The Home Planet software computes in real time the exact relative positions of the planets.  Go here to view today’s image of the solar system as seen from a heliocentric view (the sun in the center, you looking at the entire solar system as if it were a big pancake.  You can set any date and time.  You should generally ask the form to give you the “equal orbits” view so you can see all the planets.

http://www.fourmilab.ch/cgi-bin/uncgi/Solar

 

LUNAR PERIGEE/APOGEE/PHASE TABLE FOR THE REMAINDER OF 2004

 

                                             Distance

Apogee         5-Oct    22:11    404326 km        F+7d 9h

New              14-Oct  2:48                 

Perigee         18-Oct  0:04      367757 km        N+3d21h

Full               28-Oct  3:08                

Apogee         2-Nov   18:10    404998 km        F+5d15h

New              12-Nov  14:27               

Perigee         14-Nov  13:55    362312 km        N+1d23h

Full               26-Nov  20:08               

Apogee         30-Nov  11:26    405951 km        F+3d15h

Perigee         12-Dec 21:31    357985 km        N+  20h

New              12-Dec 1:29                 

Full               26-Dec 15:07               

Apogee         27-Dec 19:16    406487 km        F+1d 4h

 

For 2005, see the August 25 EC Update

 

TODAY’S MOON

 

We are in Lunation #1012 and now 20 days past the New Moon of October 14 at 02:47 UTC (now some six days past the Full Moon of October 28).   As of November Day 3, the Moon this day is now in its North Node (orbiting North of the Equator).  It is now approximately 404,000 KM from the Earth. It is 62% of the Full Moon (visibility or phase) now waning rapidly

 

SEISMIC SYZYGY WINDOWS

QUALIFER:  As we have seen at least three times this past year, most dramatically with the recent outbreak (Oct 23-26 2004) of large Earthquakes on the West side of Honsho Island (Japan), the Syzygy Window and Perigee principles DO NOT WORK CONSISTENTLY TO FORECAST AN INCREASE IN MAGNITUDE NOR FREQUENCY OF EARTHQUAKES.  Using strictly an intuitive view of the past 12 months, the rate of accuracy is definitely larger than random but probably not larger than about 70% for any given area.

 

We are about midway between all Syzygy periods and the Apogee was yesterday. According the Moon’s gravity influence on the Earth is at Minima.

 

The Next Perigee is November 14, just 2 days past the New Moon.  This Syzygy should be more potent than the one we have just gone through. 

 

The two strongest seismic syzygies remaining for 2004 will be the New Moon of November 12 (Perigee within less than two days) and December 12 (Perigee within 20 hours).

 

For describing the peak danger periods for the most damaging earthquakes. these Perigee syzygies I will define arbitrarily as

 

November 10 – November 16 – Similar to the period we have just gone through

 

December 10 – December 15 – This syzygy should produce more seismic energy release (earthquakes) than during most of the other syzygies of the preceding year.

 

Jim Berkland, the originator of using syzygy to define the most active periods of seismic activity has a more complex method for computing dates and you may want to use his methods for greater precision.  For details see the Syzygy website  

 

(Perigee = the Moon’s closest approach to the Earth during its monthly orbit which increases gravitational influence of the Moon by as much as 15%; Apogee = the Moon’s greatest distance from the Earth during its monthly orbit).   (Berkland has a more complex formula for syzygy and his dates are often different.)  For details see the Syzygy website.

 

THE NEXT PLANETARY ALIGNMENTS

For any “Home Planet Software” charts of the planets which are shown here or through URLS which are provided on this page, you can decipher which planet is which by counting the orbital rings if you do not know the signs which denote the planets. Mercury is 1 closest to the Sun, Venus is 2, Earth is 3, Mars is 4, Jupiter is 5, Saturn is 6, Uranus is 7, Neptune is 8, Pluto is 9, and both Planet X and Nibiru are bogus.

 

 

LIST OF ALIGNMENTS THROUGH TO DECEMBER 21, 2004

 

At the moment the four inner planets are widely distributed, nearly at 90 degrees from each other.  The outer planets are also widely distributed and no new alignments are forming up between them.

 

ACCORDINGLY, THE SUNSPOT COUNT SHOULD BE VERY LOW, BUT AS WE HAVE SEEN THIS PAST TWO WEEKS, WE HAVE SEEN ANOTHER HUGE PEAK IN SUNSPORT ACTIVITY, PLUS MANY STORMS AND FLARES, REMNISCENT OF THE EARLY PART OF THIS YEAR AND THE PRECEDING YEARS OF THE HIGH PERIOD OF SUNSPOT CYCLE 23.

 

Explanation?  I have none.

 

But I would expect that the November 20 Mercury | Uranus alignment could be quite strong in producing major sunspot and solar storm activity.  The peak should form up November 10-17 and produce huge storm fronts coming in off the oceans anytime from November 15 – 23.

 

An alignment of Venus | Jupiter on December 3 should prove productive of a new round of solar flares and sunspots beginning during the last week of November  This activity will introduce an even greater flare-up during the first week in December for the Mercury | Earth alignment on December 10

 

 

November 20 Mercury | Uranus

 

December 3  Venus | Jupiter

 

December 10  Mercury | Earth

 

 

PLANETARY ALIGNMENTS FOR LATE DECEMBER 2004 – JUNE 2005

 

For late December through to June 2005,  four particular periods stand out for their potential to induce major reactions in the solar atmosphere and pull out huge ionic storms, high sunspot counts, and major effects on the Earth’s weather.

 

The Aphelion Six Way Cluster Bomb

 

At or near the Earth’s Apogee (closest approach to the Sun) Mercury will once again align progressively with the inner planets during a 30 day period.  Expect an INTENSELY STORMY WINTER.

 

December 30, 2004  Mercury | Jupiter
Venus and Mars still close and Earth near Saturn alignment
January 13, 2005  Mercury & Mars close couple to
Venus | Pluto and Earth | Saturn
January 27, 2005  Mercury | Venus with Pluto close couple

 

The Spring Grand Alignment

Jupiter | Earth | Mercury | Sun | Venus

 

Beginning by about March 7, at least major peaks in the sunspot count should produce three major waves of early Spring storm fronts.  The largest peak should form up about the Spring Equinox and the largest storm front should blow in about the time of the Grand Alignment

 

March 14, 2005  Mercury | Saturn
Spring Alignments begin in three main spirals
March 21,2005  Mars | Pluto with a spiral forming in
Mercury | Earth | Jupiter and another in Venus | Uranus
March 30, 2005 Jupiter | Earth | Mercury | Sun | Venus
form a virtual straight line through the solar system with Mars and Pluto still closely coupled. Observers on Earth will only be able to physically see Jupiter rising on the Eastern horizon just after sunset and Saturn close to the Mid-heavens in the Western half of the sky. In the very early morning Mars and Uranus visible

 

Summer Ping Pong

 

June 7, 2005  Venus | Saturn with Mercury moving up in close alignment, followed on June 10 , 2005 with Mercury forming a triplet with Venus and Saturn as Earth couples with Pluto and
Mars | Neptune.  The timing of these alignments between these planets is not exact, the electromagnetic balances of the solar system will shift in a complex way, probably producing a number of ups and downs.

 

 

 

 

 

 

PLANET WATCHING  

For background and the current information on observable planets.

 

NASA'S DATA ON NEAR EARTH ASTEROIDS: "Potentially Hazardous Asteroids (PHAs) are space rocks larger than approximately 100m that can come closer to Earth than 0.05 AU. None of the known PHAs are on a collision course with our planet, although astronomers are finding new ones all the time.”

 

On 3 November 2004 there were 639 known Potentially

Hazardous Asteroids.  For November 2004, NASA has not listed any Earth-asteroid encounters. 

 

 

NASA REPORTS: BIG SUNSPOT: Sunspot 693, which poses a threat for M-class solar flares, is as wide as the planet Jupiter. You can see it, easily, but never stare at the blinding sun. (Even when the sun is dimmed by clouds or haze it can damage your eyes.) For safety, try building a simple sun projector.

 

 

NASA REPORTS: SPELLBINDING PLANETS: Venus and Jupiter, the two brightest planets, are converging for a spellbinding close encounter before sunrise on Nov. 4th and 5th. Click here  to find out why two planets close together grab your brain's attention in a special way.”

 

 

 

 

 

SUNSPOTS

The events in the solar atmosphere which impact weather and climate patterns, the magnetic field and auroras, including forecasts for the week, month, and year ahead. CLICK HERE for background information.  

To follow the numbers below, click here to view the Solar Cycle 23 Chart. Or, get the data in a NOAA Table.

 

The Sunspot Count jiggled down and up and down after the peak of 178 on October 24 to stand at 110 today.  Similarly, the Solar Flux Index wiggled and waggled up and down from 135 on October 24 but is now at 133.

 

Date       Flux  Sunspots  Area

2004 10 24  135    178      820    

2004 10 25  140    146      860     

2004 10 26  137    124      800     

2004 10 27  130    150      870     

2004 10 28  133    150     1040     

2004 10 29  129    130     1080     

2004 10 30  136    153     1000     

2004 10 31  139    163     1310     

2004 11 01  136    144     1160     

2004 11 02  133    110     1070   

 

FORECAST:  Sunspot counts will drop to 0 or so and should stay low between 0 and 40 through to about November 10. Then sunspot daily counts should begin to form up a new peak for the Mercury | Uranus alignment of November 20.

 

MONTHLY AVERAGES IN SOLAR CYCLE 23
These numbers are reported by Jan Alvestad

Over all, the sunspot average count (ISSN) for February 2004 was 46.0. March 2004  was even higher with the ISSN average count at 48.9  April’s count was radically lower at 39.3.  The May 2004 average count of 41.5 was SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN in April.  June 2004 was higher still with an average count of 43.2. and July took as even higher to an average count of 51.  August’s count dropped the average to 40, which returns us to the point on the general curve which we reached during April 2004. The law of averages finally caught with the Sun during September.  For the first time all year, sunspot activity fell below the 32.8 predicted average monthly count and was only 27.7

October became a major anomaly.  The “smoothed” average count for October was predicted to be 32.5 but at 48.4 it  was dramatically higher, 21 points above September’s average.

Even so the average count should drop during the next 12 months to a monthly low in the range of 10.  More and more, now and for the next half dozen years, the Sun will influence Earth’s atmosphere and weather less and less.  Global Warming and El Nino type of phenomena will be more and more influential compared to the solar input.  The geo-data we gather during the next three years about weather, climate, the Arctic, Antarctic, Drought Regions, etc. will be extremely valuable in telling us what the true long-term geo-trends really are.

 

 

 

 

SOLAR ACTIVITY

As reported by NASA/NOAA unless otherwise stated.  (Sudden surprises and huge storms are always possible even during sunspot minima periods such as the one we are currently headed into).  Descriptions and numbers are based on numbers as given by iway sources at about 1:00 – 3:00 PM Arizona Mountain Time (which does not have daylight savings time).

 

 

The Solar Wind was modest at: 396.5 km/s this hour while pushing a middling density of 3.0 protons/cm3”.   

 

Along with the large sunspot count activity this past several days, solar storm activity has been relatively high.  Solar activity is likely to remain modestly high for at least today and the next couple of days.

 

Fluxgate Magnetometer:  The Fluxgate Chart at the University of Alaska (which measures magnetic disturbances in the Earth’s atmosphere created by solar winds and ion storms) IS NEARLY FLAT LINE with only one minor disturbance during the past 36 hours. (as of this time, about 2 PM Mountain time US). To see the Fluxgate moment to moment, CLICK HERE.

 

NASA PREDICTS  AURORA WATCH AS OF NOVEMBER DAY 3: “Earth is approaching a solar wind stream flowing from a coronal hole on the sun. Sky watchers at high latitudes, e.g., in Canada and Alaska, should be alert for auroras tonight when the stream buffets our planet's magnetic field….A solar wind stream from a coronal hole could reach Earth later today.”   NASA reported a 10% probability of X-Class Flares, a 10%-45% probability of M-Class Flares, and a 5%-35% probability of geomagnetic disturbances in the Earth’s atmosphere over the high latitudes (higher the latitude higher the probability).

 

Jan Alvestad reports:  “The geomagnetic field was very quiet on October 26. Solar wind speed ranged between 386 and 458 km/sec, gradually decreasing all day.  Solar flux measured at 17h UTC on 2.8 GHz was 136.7. The planetary A index was 3 (STAR Ap - based on the mean of three hour interval ap indices: 2.8)...At midnight there were 8 spotted regions on the visible solar disk. The solar flare activity level was low. A total of 6 C class events was recorded during the day...A minor M class flare is possible, however, spotwise, there is currently no polarity intermixing...October 24-65: No obviously Earth directed CMEs observed...A coronal hole (CH121) in the southern hemisphere was in a geoeffective position on October 25-26.”

 

The geomagnetic field was inactive to quiet on November 2. Solar wind speed ranged between 332 and 358 km/sec. What was likely the early part of the low speed stream from coronal hole CH122 was observed at ACE at 18h UTC…Solar flux measured at 20h UTC on 2.8 GHz was 133.1. The planetary A index was 4 (STAR Ap - based on the mean of three hour interval ap indices: 4.5)…At midnight there were 5 spotted regions on the visible solar disk. The solar flare activity level was low. A total of 8 C class events was recorded during the day…Minor M class flares are possible…November 3: Region 10696 continues to develop and produced a major M5.0 flare at 15:47 UTC. This event was associated with a strong type II radio sweep and a fast CME mainly over the east limbs…November 1: A faint full halo CME was observed…This CME could reach Earth on November 4, possibly late on November 3…A trans equatorial coronal hole (CH122) was in a geoeffective position on October 30-31. An extension (CH123) of the northern polar coronal hole will be in a geoeffective position on November 3-4. A recurrent coronal hole (CH124) in the southern hemisphere will rotate to a geoeffective position on November 4.

 

Jan Alvestad predicts:  “The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled on November 3-4 due to effects from coronal hole CH122. Mostly quiet is likely on November 5.”  Alvestad also predicts for the next 24 hours a 60%-100% probability of coronal holes, a 20%-60% probability of CME’s, and a  60%-100% probability of M and/or X Class Flares.

 

 

 

 

 

WORLD WEATHER SUMMARY

Those who have been following the patterns have seen that the correlations between sunspot peaks and major storm fronts coming in off the oceans to track across the continents is roughly pretty good, sometimes very much exactly on the mark.  Accordingly, our “sloppycasts” (approximate continental weather patterns) this past few years have proven out to be fairly worthwhile.

 

For the U.S. West Coast and now the Rocky Mountains Plateau, we are definitely in early Winter onset, extremely wet generally with lots of snow in the Mountains.

 

The large, fat peak in the Sunspot Count this past week is going to drive in a lot of additional weather of this type.  Expect major, highly energetic, larger than normal  storm fronts to continue to sweep in across the Pacific Northwest and down all the way into the Pacific Southwest to slide across the mountains as they usually do into the Great Plains and Great Lakes.

 

This syndrome will continue for perhaps 10-14 days, then another major sunspot peak will drive another exceptionally wet and energetic storm front onto North America.

 

EARTH WEATHER PREDICTION FOR THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS

(Northern Hemisphere) This “sloppycast” is based on sunspot counts, planetary alignments, and visual data shown on satellite and radar.

 

Wet, windy, major snow in high elevations.

 

EARTH WEATHER PREDICTION FOR FALL SEASON

(Northern Hemisphere) This “sloppycast” is based on sunspot counts, planetary alignments, and visual data shown on satellite and radar.

 

Several major storms of long duration for the remainder of the year.

 

KEEP WATCHING FOR THIS PATTERN:  Global Warming could easily intensify the seasons, making a short bitterly cold Winter, longer intermediate stormy Spring and Fall seasons, and shorter but very hot and dry summers. Don’t we already see this pattern at work in the Northern Hemisphere?

 

SOUTHWEST CONDITIONS

This “sloppycast” is based on six years of living in the USA Pacific Southwest, the sunspot counts, planetary alignments, and visual data shown on satellite and radar.

 

Highly variable, unpredictable for the next seven days but rain in the Sonoran Desert Plain is likely in a few days.  Rain possible off and on during much of November, though this goes against the grain of the “average”  “normal” climate pattern.

 

AS PREVIOUSLY REPORTED:  For a large part of the elevations below 4000 feet in the Southwest,  the general drought in the Western U.S. is still holding sway. Only the Winter of 2005 remains a hope at this point.  At this point, everyone in the Southwest should begin to pray in earnest for a HUGE El Nino effect.  During the last El Nino, the Southwest received substantial water. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

EL NINO & LA NINA WATCH
The watch is now open again; Pacific water activity appears mostly normal, we are between the extremes of the ENSO; Click here for the NOAA window on the Pacific Ocean Temperatures:

http://www.cdc.noaa.gov/map/clim/sst_olr/sst_animated.gif

 

NEARLY SAME AS LAST WEEK:  CONDITIONS ALONG THE EQUATOR ARE STILL NEAR AVERAGE

 

BUT,  FOR THE SECOND WEEK IN A ROW,  SLIGHT INDICATIONS OF AN INCREASE IN SLIGHTLY WARMER WATER ALONG THE EQUATOR  POINT TO THE POSSIBILITY OF A DYNAMIC TREND OF CHANGE BEGINNING.  This is not enough to predict an El Nino, it is just a pattern to watch for - an increase in warmth and spread.

 

AS REPORTED PREVIOUSLY – THE CLASSIC EL NINO – We do not at this point know whether an El Nino is in the offing for 2005.  Purely in accordance with the X Wave correlation which I discovered in the Vortex Tectonics Model,  AN EL NINO IS MORE PROBABLE THAN NOT IN 2005.  But, the El Nino is not like an astrophysical cycle.  There are some “missing” El Nino’s in the record of the 20th century and we may have a missing one.  HOWEVER, WE CAN’T BE CERTAIN UNTIL ABOUT APRIL OF 2005, which is about the latest month in which the syndrome has formed up during previous El Nino’s.

 

ADDITIONAL NOTE:  The year 2004 and/or 2005, in accordance with the 100 year X Wave Graph of the motion of the spin axis in Chandler’s Wobble, COULD BE EL NINO YEARS.   Graphs of various El Nino periods seem to show that the beginning of temperature build-up can occur as late as April of an El Nino year.  So 2005 may not be callable until early Spring 2005.

 

 

 

KEEP WATCHING THE ARCTIC,  ANTARCTIC, and the desert zones. These areas are the most objective front line observatories of the climate shift.

 

 

GLOBAL WARMING

It is becoming obvious that we have a long term real shift in the average temperatures and climate regions related to the latitudes.  This climate shift is creating a growing environmental disaster in the polar zones and in the desert-prone latitudes such as in the Pacific Southwest. For the latest short review, see Earth Changes Bulletin Update As Of May 26, 2004 and the Earth Changes Bulletin Update As Of August 18, 2004

 

 

 

NO CHANGE THIS WEEK

 

More or less, the Pacific Southwest will probably begin to face the bitter but essential facts of life on a “Global Warming Earth”.  More probable than not, global warming is inducing this current drought condition, which is about the worst drought in at least 400 years (which is estimated from the general life of the “old growth’ Ponderosa Pine which the drought continues to kill).

 

As the water tables continue to drop and especially as the Colorado River reservoirs continue to dry up, engineers and technical people are already discussing the huge impact a ‘water freeze” will have on the economics of the southwest.  It will mean no more permits for construction, for one thing, in the Sonoran desert, or in the Mojave, Las Vegas, etc.

 

More probable than not, the economics and politics of the Pacific Southwest will transition during 2005 into the new politics and economics of extreme water scarcity.

 

But, an El Nino next year, which is still very much a possibility, would most likely delay the transition for about 18 months.

 

When this transition begins, it will form up a terrible political war between the owners of the last significant unused aquifers of North America (the Hopi, Navaho, and Apache) and the crazy white man world of plutocratic real estate development corporations which dominate the political order in Arizona, Nevada, and Southern California.

 

AS PREVIOUSLY REPORTED ABOUT THE LIKELY IMPACT OF GLOBAL WARMING ON HURRICANES

 

For others comments on Global Warming,

 

Earth Changes Bulletin Update As Of August 25, 2004

 

For backgrounder information about Global Warming and how to look for it and correlate it to the real causes (solar influx and tectonic heat rifts in the bottoms of the oceans), see

 

Earth Changes Bulletin Update As Of July 14, 2004

 

 

 

 

 

IONIZING SOLAR ACTIVITY & MASS BEHAVIOR

 

Der Fuhrer is already claiming he now has a clear mandate.  More probable than not restraint in the use of force will decline, violence will increase, and blood will begin to flow in greater and greater quantities.  If this continues, the multiplication of the killing fields will become exponential.  The reaction is no longer emotional, the reaction is hardcore mental, a final, decisive generational shift of attitude of the Arab and Muslim world against U.S. involvement in the Middle East.  In the U.S., the Pentecostal Zoroastrian Mindset has won an overwhelming victory.  For this mindset, the Boogie Man, the “other”, the “enemy”, is now clearly Muslim and Arabic. Between the two forces, bigotry will trump over all else.

 

In the light of this Sunspot Cycle 23, we have clearly seen that you can in fact lie to a majority of the people all the time even in a country in which much of the media is critical and free.

 

Amazing but true, Bush and Karl Rove and the Republicrats have proven that tyrants really do not need to obsess on controlling the press and censoring what appears, the press will gladly do it themselves without being told if there is a buck to be had in doing it.

 

AS PREVIOUSLY OBSERVED:  In the Middle East, we can see with clarity that all military action is being expressed with efficient overwhelming violence.  Confusion and the hunt for appropriate action has ended.  Emotionality has been put aside on the military front, machine-like operations have commenced.   The collateral violence is quite high, the reaction pattern in Palestine and Iraq will further destroy the ability of both Jews and Americans to find any accommodation in the world for their positions. 

 

AS PREVIOUSLY PREDICTED:

 

Whatever crystallizes out during October is likely to remain a constant until the alignments of January 5, 2005.  Given world conditions, the crystallization between humans is likely to be highly polarized and highly charged with emotional energy.

 

 

 

 

 

EARTHQUAKES

Around the world to see the current and potential patterns of seismic activity, with coverage of the windows of danger.  Unless otherwise specified, all quake activity which is discussed is based on the USGS database charts and tables which list quake activity in excess of 2.0 mag. and above.  Unfortunately there are many lags in reporting of information about quakes, thus neither the numbers of quakes nor the actual quakes discussed may be complete and accurate.  Real time analysis of quake patterns is merely AN APPROXIMATION BASED ON INCOMPLETE INFORMATION.  FOR MORE QUAKE INFO RELATED TO SYZYGY WINDOWS, Jim Berkland calculates syzygy windows with considerably more sophistication than I do.  See Syzygy.com

For the preceding seven days, a goodly portion of the world’s seismic energy above 3.0, was expressed just to the West of Vancouver Island along the margin of the Juan De Fuca Plate and the Pacific Plate about 400 km from Vancouver. B.C. Some 10 quakes struck in the range of 4.2 to 6.8.  The size range was eerily  in the same range as the quakes which struck around Honshu Island (Japan) during the preceding seven days.

 

Shapeshifting produced only three mild quakes in the Great Rift of the Earth, two along the Antarctic Tectonic Plate (one to the South of Australia and another to the South of Latin America) and a third quake in the East Pacific Rise near the triple junction below Central America.

 

Most other seismic activity was fairly widely distributed, though some activity continued in Japan and China and major foci of repeated activity could be found in Kashmir, South Kermedec Islands (South of New Zealand), and Sumatra.

 

COSA NOSTRA DAMUS WATCH FOR SOUTH CAL.

 

AS PREVIOUSLY OBSERVED: according to the Cosa Nostra Damus Prophecy, a major destructive quake could now strike at any time in Santa Barbara, Santa Monica, Hollywood, the Van Nuys Valley region, Bakersfield, and anywhere along the escarpment of the San Bernardino Mountains. This will be a follow up to the 4.9 quake which was felt in Coos Bay Oregon during July 2004.  If a quake occurs near Santa Barbara, warnings will need to be given to Mexico City about the possibility of a major explosive event in Popo.

 

SLOW EARTH MOVEMENT WATCH

 

No reports to add this week

 

SHAPE-SHIFTERS WATCH

The quake activity in the Great Rift is one of the most important harbingers for the Earth Changes Watch to monitor. As the Earth’s crust adjusts its shape in response to gravitational and spin energy vectors, quakes in the Great Rift increase and tectonic activity all around the world increases. (Unless otherwise specified, all quake activity which is discussed is based on the USGS LOCAL AREA database charts and tables which list quake activity in excess of 3.0 mag. and above. Generally most of the quakes which appear in these counts are 4.5 plus in magnitude.)  For additional information on Plate Tectonics and charts of the Great Rift of the Earth, go to Plate Tectonics Map

 

Three shape-shifter quakes struck in the Great Rift, a 4.6, a 4.8, and a 4.8,  one in the South Sandwich Islands region below the tip of South America along the Antarctic Tectonic Plate, another along the same ridge but South of Australia and an additional quake struck in the East Pacific Galapagos Triple Junction nearly dead over the Equator.

 

Magnitude 4.8 GALAPAGOS TRIPLE JUNCTION REGION

Monday, November 01, 2004 at 08:20:19 UTC

Preliminary Earthquake Report

http://neic.usgs.gov/neis/bulletin/neic_qhab.html

U.S. Geological Survey, National Earthquake Information Center

Location        2.11N 101.65W

Depth            10.0 kilometers

Region          GALAPAGOS TRIPLE JUNCTION REGION

Reference     1230 km (760 miles) WNW of Puerto Villamil, Isabela, Galapagos

1230 km (770 miles) SE of Clipperton Island

1935 km (1200 miles) S of MEXICO CITY, D.F., Mexico

2580 km (1610 miles) W of QUITO, Ecuador

 

Magnitude 4.8 SOUTH SANDWICH ISLANDS REGION

Tuesday, November 02, 2004 at 00:14:28 UTC

Preliminary Earthquake Report

http://neic.usgs.gov/neis/bulletin/neic_qicj.html

U.S. Geological Survey, National Earthquake Information Center

Location        59.15S 24.53W

Depth            10.0 kilometers

Region          SOUTH SANDWICH ISLANDS REGION

Reference     115 km (70 miles) E of Bristol Island, South Sandwich Islands

315 km (195 miles) SSE of Visokoi Island, South Sandwich Islands

3705 km (2300 miles) SSE of BUENOS AIRES, Argentina

 

Magnitude 4.6 WEST OF MACQUARIE ISLAND

Thursday, October 28, 2004 at 06:51:49 UTC

Preliminary Earthquake Report

http://neic.usgs.gov/neis/bulletin/neic_qdcl.html

U.S. Geological Survey, National Earthquake Information Center

Location        57.31S 147.83E

Depth            10.0 kilometers

Region          WEST OF MACQUARIE ISLAND

Reference     755 km (470 miles) WSW of Macquarie Island, Australia

1125 km (700 miles) NNE of Dumont d'Urville, Antarctica

2175 km (1350 miles) S of MELBOURNE, Victoria, Australia

2445 km (1520 miles) S of CANBERRA, A.C.T., Australia

 

NORTH AMERICAN WATCH

Unless otherwise specified, all quake activity which is discussed is based on the USGS LOCAL AREA database charts and tables which list quake activity in excess of 1.0 mag. and above. Generally most of the quakes which appear in these counts are in the range of 1 to 2 in magnitudeAny numbers used in this section may or may not be accurate and may or may not reflect what will eventually appear in scientific databases.

 

Seismic activity in North America overall for quakes in the range of 1.0 and over was generally down this last week for the past seven days.  It should have been and was. 

 

For the fifth week running, except for the sudden awakening of St. Helens, the greatest activity was tightly clustered near Paso Robles and Parkfield in Central Coastal California along the San Andreas Fault.  Though well below the prior weeks, the past seven days recorded nearly another 104 quakes of varying size, mostly below 2.0 to produce a highly unusual number of quakes in a small area along the San Andreas and subsidiary faults.

 

The microquake swarm in the area East of Mono Lake (nearly on the Nevada border) has largely disappeared and is now on about par with Long Valley and Yellowstone.

 

NOTE: Most volcano monitoring sites appear to be screening out microquakes. A study needs to be done to establish how to reconcile various lists and databases because of this practice.  The numbers below cannot be considered to be definitive totals and subtotals.  We use them merely to observe relative fluctuations from week to week.

 

 

US & ALASKA & ISLANDS  ---  567

down from 548 the prior week

 

BIG ISLAND HAWAII (not including microswarms) --- 11

up from 9 during the prior week - these do not include the microquakes swarming below Mauna Loa.

 

CALIFORNIANEVADA  ---  424

down from 451 last week, widely scattered in California and Nevada;

 

PASO ROBLES PARKFIELD AREA --- 104

down from 124 the previous week

 

LONG VALLEY – 10

same as  10 last week.

 

EAST OF MONO LAKE 16

down from 30 quakes in the prior week

 

PNW --- 37

up from 20 last week, widely scattered throughout the PNW, mainly along the Cascades, apparently the USGS in the PNW is now screening out all KNOWN volcano related quakes from the main quake database.  BUT AT LEAST TWO MINOR QUAKES WERE LOCATED ON ST. HELENS AND A 2.0 WAS LOCATED ON THE THROAT OF TAHOMA (RAINIER).  I AM NOT TERRIBLY CONFIDENT OF THIS DATA – I WONDER IF THE RIGHT HAND KNOWS WHAT THE LEFT HAND IS DOING in the USGS?

 

COAST OF OREGON  ---  0

HOOD  ---  unknown

RAINIER (not including microswarms) ---  1

SAINT HELENS (not including microswarms)  --- at least two

 

UTAH --- 12

down from 25 last week.

 

YELLOWSTONE  -- 12

up from 9 last week; widely scattered

 

YELLOWSTONE WATCH

Unless otherwise specified, all quake activity which is discussed is based on the USGS LOCAL AREA database charts and tables which list quake activity in excess of 1.0 mag. and above. Generally most of the quakes which appear in these counts are in the range of 1 to 2 in magnitude.  For Yellowstone Quake Chart, CLICK HERE.

 

Activity this past seven days remained low at just 12 widely scattered microquakes in Yellowstone, some of them outside the ancient cauldera zone.

 

WEEK’S MOST SIGNIFICANT QUAKES

 

Magnitude 6.7 - VANCOUVER ISLAND, CANADA REGION

2004 November 2 10:02:12 UTC

Preliminary Earthquake Report

http://earthquake.usgs.gov/eqinthenews/2004/usqial/

U.S. Geological Survey, National Earthquake Information Center

A strong earthquake occurred at 10:02:12 (UTC) on Tuesday, November 2, 2004. The magnitude 6.7 event has been located in the VANCOUVER ISLAND, CANADA REGION. (This event has been reviewed by a seismologist.)

Location        49.328°N, 128.833°W

Depth            10 km (6.2 miles) set by location program

Region          VANCOUVER ISLAND, CANADA REGION

Distances      178 km (111 miles) SSW (213°) from Port Hardy, BC, Canada

270 km (168 miles) WSW (256°) from Campbell River, British Columbia, Canada

327 km (203 miles) WNW (291°) from Neah Bay, WA

408 km (254 miles) WNW (285°) from Saanich, British Columbia, Canada

413 km (257 miles) W (273°) from Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada

 

 

 

 

VOLCANOES

Around the world with the most interesting and relevant volcano stories; briefs on the likely eruptions as well as coverage of on-going activity. For information on current eruptions, see the Southwest Volcano Centre.  Or see “Breaking Volcano Eruption News”.

 

OBSERVABLE WORLD VOLCANIC ACTIVITY IS  NOW DEFINITELY DECLINING, DESPITE CONTINUED ACTIVITY AT SAINT HELENS AND NEW ERUPTIONS ON ICELAND.

THIS DECLINE IS NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.  EXPECT THE NEXT UPSURGE IN LATE DECEMBER AND JANUARY.

 

SAINT HELENS VOLCANO UPDATES

Text in this section is a condensation of direct quotes from online source:

CURRENT UPDATE supplied by the U.S. Geological Survey, Vancouver, Washington; University of Washington, Pacific Northwest Seismograph Network, Seattle, Washington; U.S. Geological Survey, Vancouver, Washington; University of Washington, Pacific Northwest Seismograph Network, Seattle, Washington

November 3, 2004 08:30 am PST (16:30 UTC)

Current status is Volcano Advisory (Alert Level 2); aviation color code ORANGE

Growth of the new lava dome inside the crater of Mount St. Helens continues. As long as this eruption is in progress, episodic changes in the level of activity can occur over days, weeks, or even months. Increase in the intensity of eruption could occur suddenly or with very little warning and may include explosive events that produce hazardous conditions within several miles of the volcano. Small lahars (volcanic debris flows) could suddenly descend the Toutle River valley if triggered by heavy rain or by interaction of hot rocks with snow or glacier ice. These lahars pose a negligible hazard below the Sediment Retention Structure (SRS) but could pose a hazard to people along the river channel upstream of the SRS. At this time of year, it is not unusual for rivers draining the volcano to contain high concentrations of sediment that turn the water murky.

Although considered less likely at this time, the current eruptive activity could evolve into a more explosive phase that affects areas farther from the volcano and sends significant ash thousands of feet above the crater where it could be a hazard to aircraft and to downwind communities.

Wind forecasts from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), coupled with eruption models, show that ash clouds that rise above the crater rim today would drift south to east-southeast with increasing plume height.

Visibility was excellent at 7:00 a.m. and likely will remain so throughout the day. A steam plume will probably be visible as it rises passively and then drifts southward at crater-rim altitude. Some casual observers erroneously describe this plume as ash, although it rarely contains notable ash. Those needing accurate ash reports should consult the sources listed at the foot of this update.

Seismicity remains at a low level compared to that observed early in this unrest. The current seismicity is consistent with a continuing, slow rise of magma driving uplift of the crater floor and feeding a surface extrusion of lava. The overall low rates of seismicity and gas emission suggest that the lava reaching the surface is gas poor, thereby reducing the probability of highly explosive eruptions in the near term.

For additional information, background, images, and other graphics: http://vulcan.wr.usgs.gov/News/framework.html

For seismic information: http://www.pnsn.org/HELENS/welcome.html

For a definition of alert levels: http://vulcan.wr.usgs.gov/News/framework.html

Telephone recordings with the latest update on Mount St. Helens and phone contacts for additional information can be heard by calling: Media (360) 891-5180 General public (360) 891-5202

OTHER CASCADE VOLCANOES as of November Day 3 2004
Same source as above.

All other volcanoes in the Cascade Range are all at normal levels of background seismicity. These include Mount Baker, Glacier Peak, Mount Rainier, and Mount Adams in Washington State; Mount Hood, Mount Jefferson, Three Sisters, Newberry, and Crater Lake, in Oregon; and Medicine Lake, Mount Shasta, and Lassen Peak in northern California.”

FORECAST FOR SAINT HELENS BY EC BULLETIN:   Look to mid-month in November or mid-month in December for increases in activity (see the syzygy periods defined above).

AS REPORTED PREVIOUSLY: Colima may be the closest “model” for how St. Helens may behave during the next few years.  Both may erupt off and on with lava flows, as Colima is now, or with occasional ash plumes, then slowly stewing for weeks and months on end while merely steaming like nearly two dozen other volcanoes around the world, steaming until the next eruptive episode of ash and lava, which may last from a few days to several months.  More probable than not, St. Helens will have sudden flare-offs and a few major ash plumes during the next year, but no major, explosive eruption which comes even close to its 1980 eruption.  It will continue to sporadically emit steam and ash like Colima and Popo for the next few years.  How much and how vigorously remains unpredictable.  More probable than not during the next 90 days, perhaps with some fits and starts related to Lunar Motion. Most probable is

 

(a) the next New Moon – Perigee syzygy Mid-October, or

(b) the New Moon Perigee syzygy of November or December.

 

Here are the SWVC volcanic activity numbers as of November Day 3 2004:

 

5 on restless list (could go on active list at any moment) (same as last week)

 

48 on alert list (pre-cursors suggesting that activity may begin) (up one from last week)

 

21 on active list (seismic, gas, steam, lava, ash, or explosive activity) (down four from last week)

 

Popo gave a 11 puff day yesterday, down from 19 last Tuesday.  Centrapred reports for November Day 3 (17:00 GMT) that “In the last 24 hours the monitoring system of Popocatepetl volcano recorded only 11 low intensity exhalations accompanied by steam and gas emissions. The other monitored parameters remain without important changes.  At the moment of this report we can not observe the volcano due to the clouds. However, this morning we could see with steam and gas emission.  In an aerial photograph taken on July 8th by SCT, subsidence is observed in the inner crater; an external lava dome at the bottom of the crater cannot be distinguished.  Due to the low levels of activity shown in the past days, the scenarios consisting of explosions and ash emission are less probable.  The traffic light of volcanic alert is in YELLOW-1. Access is restricted in a radius of 12 km from the crater. The road between Santiago Xalitzintla (Puebla) and San Pedro Nexapa (Mexico State), including Paso de Cortés, is open to controlled traffic. However, it is not permitted to remain within the 12 Km restricted area.”

 

HIGHLY INTERESTING NEW PLATE TECTONICS RESOURCE:

 

Digital World Tectonic Activity Map (DTAM) -  visualization tool that presents an actual representational view of global tectonics; created using current global datasets of seismicity, volcanism, and plate motions.

 

MOST ACTIVE VOLCANOES THIS WEEK

from Volcano Breaking News by Volcanologist John Seach

Volcano Travel:  john@volcanolive.com

Dates in red are posted in Eastern Australian Time (UT + 10 hr)

John Seach is on vacation.

 

 

 

Standing Assessment:  Likely, it is fair to conclude that the not-so-invisible Black Arts Nation, from HAARP to the Navy, to the Bush/Ashcroft prisons in Iraq/Afghanistan and Cuba, not to mention many other technologies, areas, and programs, are far out of ethical, moral, constitutional, and treaty control, as has been widely feared. 

 

 

BLACK ARTS NATION

 

STAY TUNED.  We are just on the front edge of “the outing”….

 

 

What is truly bazaar about mass opinion at this current time in the U.S. is its near complete inversion.  Both Kerry and Bush are seen by a substantial portion of the public, perhaps even a majority of the public, as VERY NEARLY THE OPPOSITE OF WHO THEY REALLY ARE.  This greatly benefits Bush, it greatly diminishes Kerry. What is even more bazaar is the strength and persistence of the emotional and mental blinders which are maintaining the illusions which create the inversion. No matter what is presented now on TV, NOTHING SEEMS TO DENT THE ILLUSION.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

ECONOMY WATCH 

 

LITTLE CHANGE THIS WEEK

The U.S. economy will grow for at least a few more months. There are still no signs of a general recovery, there have been many growing signs of a recession, and there is clear evidence of a stagflation dynamic setting (rising prices with no growth).  But, the fickle finger of fate has intervened and is creating sudden shifts which will drive sudden expansion and huge demand and production increases in certain sectors, specifically those related to construction and war.

 

FOR THE LAST UPDATED DISCUSSION:

click here for the EC Bulletin Update as of October 27, 2004

 

With the re-election of George Bush a completely new scenario for the next two years is needed.

 

We need an AHA experience to see the larger picture.. Perhaps it is this.  Perhaps the AHA is that all the contradictions which thousands of analysts have been reporting for the past 20 years mean NOTHING to the Power Elite for they have a solution.

 

If so, the solution is this:  the main driving force of the economy will transition fully into an Imperial economy.  It will be based on major militarization of the U.S. to AMP up Empire Building for general export.  We may be as in Germany as in approximately 1934.  During the 1930’s, while much of the world was mired in a deep depression, Germany, Italy, and Japan under the Fascists (Corporate National Plutocracy) prospered in a wave of tremendous prosperity for their workers.  The Fascists terminated all external debt to the international banks and recycled their currencies highly astutely without the need to finance debt.  That is why Hitler, Mussolini, and the Japanese Militarists were so fervently supported.

 

A massive empire building drive to export “Order” over the greater portion of the world’s petroleum reserves will shore up the value of the petro dollar quite nicely and preserve its hegemony well through the “peak oil” period.  Huge expenditures on armaments should provide a continuing stimulous of the North American economy, enough to at least keep it gimping along while the Empire is consolidated.

 

The eventual eclipse of well oil poses no long term problem.  Only naïve analysts are worried.  Once oil supply is seriously declining and oil prices can be maintained above $80/barrel, some people in the oil industry, including David Rockefeller, understand the means of “growing” your own.  They have held the secrets of this for some 23 years.

 

FOR THE LASTEST DETAILED DISCUSSION

 

See the Earth Changes Bulletin Update Of July 21, 2004

 

FOR THE STAND PAT ECONOMIC PREDICTION FOR THIS YEAR,

 

 See the Earth Changes Bulletin Update Of May 12 2004

 

GENERAL PREDICTION DJI AVERAGES

 

The DJI finished November Day 3 at 10,137.05, up about $135 from last Wednesday at 10,002.03

 

Here is the gig. The wannabes in the lower rungs of the Plutocracy are already beginning to salivate at the prospect of hundreds of billions of investor mad money they can loot through overpriced hyper-inflated stock bubble schemes:

 

Bush Win Seen As Boon to Many Industries
Wed 9:18PM  ET - Associated Press
President Bush's victory in Tuesday's election is shaping up as a potential bonanza for Wall Street, where firms are salivating about the possibility that he will follow through on his pledge to allow private investment of Social Security funds.”

 

The Social Security stock scheme will make far too much liquidity available in New York and drive stock values into extreme irrationality.  Millions of people will end up busting out every seven to 12 years with failed bubbles.

 

If principled conservatives and democrats prove spineless during the early part of 2005, millions will end up losing a lot of money during the coming Crash of 2006.  After that, the scheme will be abandoned once again.

 

AS PREVIOUSLY REPORTED:  “Propredictions” has revised their psychic forecasts to correspond more or less with mine.  They predict a soft DJI around 10,000 for the remainder of 2004  However, unlike mine to date, they predict a rise to 11,000 during the first quarter of January 2005.

 

THIS COULD HAPPEN WITH THE PUSHING OF THE SOCIAL SECURITY STOCK SCHEME.  EVERYBODY WILL HOLD THEIR CURRENT STOCK POSITIONS HOPING FOR A BRISK UPTURN IN THE MARKET.

 

WATCH THIS VERY CAREFULLY – SO FAR OIL COULD STILL RISE RATHER THAN FALL – WAR IN THE MIDDLE EAST IS THE PRIMARY FACTOR DRIVING OIL UP IN PRICE AND ACCELERATING THE DECLINE IN THE DOLLAR. 

 

WHAT SHOULD HAPPEN:  Eventually oil prices should drop and allow the bubble to inflate some more.  

 

Another factor is the weakening dollar.  As the dollar drops AND the stock values remain constant, U.S. stocks will become suddenly cheaper for foreign investors and they may begin to convert to buy U.S. stocks.  This also will firm up values when it occurs, but I have no idea where the conversion points are.

 

So it is all a complex equation which could go sideways at any moment.  THE MAIN PROVISO IS AL QAEDA. When they strike in the U.S. again, they will trump all else.

 

The main weakness in the international economy is that that THE BUSH ADMINISTRATION IS SO INCOMPETENT THAT NO INTERNATIONAL ACTOR KNOWS HOW TO BE RATIONAL AND MAKE REAL DECISIONS.  EVERYTHING IS HEDGED AND HIDDEN.  All news on the war fronts is terrible. Iraq recovery has essentially collapsed. Real war is heating up. The insurgents and terrorists now are just playing hide and seek in Iraq, the more the American Bull rushes them, the less energy it was to remain in the game.  Bush’s support is crumbling and he couldn’t do a deal internationally if his life depended upon it.

 

SO THIS MAY BE IT.  EVERYTHING MAY JUST ONLY GET CRAZIER FROM HERE.

 

AS PREVIOUSLY PREDICTED:  Don’t wait for Christmas Retail Sales…they will be disappointing, depress the stock values, and lead into the final economic collapse.  When the DJI is above 10,000, liquidate anything you have in all such equities anywhere.  The DJI MAY HIT 10,500 AGAIN but DON’T COUNT ON IT.  And if it does, it will be only a signal spike which will break the market for many months, if not many years.

 

EURO WATCH 

 

The dollar closed today at 0.7797 down almost a penny from 0.7877 per euro a week ago. During the last three weeks, the dollar has lost nearly three cents.

 

“As oil goes up, the dollar will tend also to go down against the Euro.”

 

OIL HAS FALLEN A BIT THIS PAST SEVERAL DAYS TO AROUND $50. If it holds here, the euro/dollar values will remain fairly steady, perhaps the dollar will firm up a bit. – always contingent of course on Al Qaeda activities.

 

REVISION OF PREDICTION ONCE AGAIN:  “The overall erosion is likely to slowly continue through the year.  It may bottom at $0.70 per euro by the end of 2004.” This is probably not going to happen.  The international inflation of the dollar, which is being forced by international dynamics, is being made by revaluing the dollar against the barrel of oil and other basic major commodities.

 

The Saudi’s HAVE NOT BEEN ABLE TO DELIVER on their promise to keep the price of oil low.  Big Oil is slowly cooking Bush’s goose with high prices.

 

HOWEVER, some analysts are predicting that Big Oil is delaying retail price increases, thus keeping retail prices below their normal pump profit margins. IF THIS IS TRUE, pump prices will suddenly escalate during November, regardless of who wins the elections.

 

MUST READ:  “The Dollar Panics” in “The Coming Economic Collapse of 2006”, which lays out the dynamics of what is happening

 

 

 

 

 

SURVIVAL WATCH

 

FOOD WATCH

 

For latest info, see the Earth Changes Bulletin Update as of  July 7, 2004

 

JOB WATCH

 

Any aspect of the construction and home products industry is hot.

 

 

 

SIGN OF THE TIMES: Ken Lay, who is now widely described as the biggest corporate swindler of all time, is still scott free. (ONE OF THE WORST ECONOMIC TERRORISTS OF ALL TIME).  But now finally after waiting for two or so years, Lay has been indicted.  Notice the timing, near the end of the first term of the Bush Administration. At this time I will hazard the guess that he will be pardoned by Bush during the final days of his administration, probably December of this year.  ANOTHER NEARLY EQUAL SIGN OF THE TIMES:  The lawyers who have been settling the Enron collapse for all parties, are billing the remaining net assets of Enron for approximately $1 billion for their services.  This is a new heavenly-ordained definition for the term Chutzpah.  I CALL IT CLASS ECONOMIC TERRORISM.

 

POLITICAL WATCH

For general overview on the Tragedy in Iraq and the Bureau-Political Civil War in Washington DC, I highly recommend Tom Dispatch.

 

 

For general background:  see Earth Changes Bulletin Update As Of July 7 2004

 

WHAT WILL HAPPEN NEXT IS ANYONE’S GUESS. American politics has never been so unpredictable.  Many who would will a great change are now depressing into deep pessimism. Despite a year of exposing the grave crimes of the Imperial Faction and the incompetence of their President, a majority of Americans WHO VOTE refuse to believe that conditions have become so corrupt.  They insist on drawing their blinders more tightly around their favorite illusions.

 

For a time yet, the truth must remain an orphan in the street.

 

WE HAVE FAILED TO STALEMATE THE IMPERIAL FACTION.  In fact, it has slightly consolidated its position in the U.S.  The consequences are this:

 

THERE WILL BE A DRAFT, THERE WILL BE A WIDER EXPANSION OF PERPETUAL WAR, AND THE U.S. WILL END UP ATTEMPTING BY OCCUPATION TO CONTROL ALL THE OIL IN THE MIDDLE EAST TO PAY FOR THE COSTS OF THE WORLD MILITARY ESTABLISHMENT WHICH IS CONTROLLED BY THE PRO-CONSUL PRESIDENT AND THE PLUTARCHS WHO CONTROL HIS ACCESS TO OFFICE AND WEALTH.

 

These people have clearly laid out their plans and there is really no surprise in what they want to do and will do if they have the chance. It is all laid on the Internet, through such documents as the “Plan For New American Century”.

 

Don't think for a moment that they will not impose a draft. As we have all noticed, Bush has no problem lying at the drop of a hat, in fact cannot open his mouth with his chronic lying resurfacing, thus his promise not to impose the draft is as credible as the Weapons of Mass Deception:  000000000000000000000

 

A wider war and vast expansion of National Fascism is the inevitable outcome of the Bush Crime Family's  continued control of Washington D.C.  The Bush Crime Family has made most of its fortune out of the major world wars.  Don't think they will shy away from this.

 

The problem is that the careerists (the Imperial Faction AND the Democratic Leadership Council) in Washington DC are risk-adverse to the "vision thing".  It is morally and politically too challenging for conventional careers.

 

THE ONLY THING I AM CERTAIN ABOUT IS THAT IF THE U.S. ATTEMPTS TO ESCALATE ITS MILITARY EFFORTS IN IRAQ, THE MORE QUICKLY AND THE MORE BITTER WILL BECOME ITS DEFEAT.  THE U.S. IS IN A GENUINE HISTORICAL STALEMATE IN WHICH IT CAN NEITHER LOSE NOR WIN IN THE SHORT TERM, ALL IT WILL DO IS BLEED UNTIL THE BULL IS WEARY AND STOPS CHARGING.  THEN THE LOSS WILL BE APPARENT, the Bull will fall over and die.

 

So if Bush wants the military to be more aggressive in bombing Iraqi neighborhoods, his efforts will come to naught and we will watch the sometimes violent collapse of the American Empire during the next five years. 

 

So there you have it....another four years of political struggle, bitterness, the loss of more political and individual rights, continued declassing and economic deterioration, and a growing general civil upheaval which takes many forms…in the midst of a nation which is virtually ostracized from most of the remainder of the world. 

 

 

 

A new media now arrives, floating down the river Iway, and with it comes a new consciousness of the world and the lies which have driven so much of the past 50 years….

 

From this, the future will arise as the old world slowly collapses.

 

All else is fluid, in transition. Thank God Almighty!

 

 

THE STRATEGIC SITUATIONFinal Synopsis
For predictions related to the mess in Palestine, the Middle East, and the Bush political era.

 

CONDITIONS IN IRAQ AND THE MIDDLE EAST

ARE IN EXTREME CRISIS

 

The entire world continues to witness the American impasse in Iraq.  American policy and management are now clearly on trajectory to a catastrophic loss.

 

As reported in prior months:  Since May 2004 it has been obvious that the U.S. Military was adrift without a rudder AND MISSING ITS PADDLES whilst attempting a turn-around far up the creek named Iraq. 

 

A discredited Army engagement doctrine pounds away at densely settled urban zones with exceptional violence. The results please no one and simply increase the polarization of world dynamic forces into greater opposition.

 

Bottom line:

 

All the King’s Men got mugged by a swindling crook named Chalabi, who sold the New World Order Emperor the equivalent of the Brooklyn Bridge – the mythical Weapons of Mass Destruction.

 

To claim this prize, the Mass Broadcast Media began beating the war drums and the “Good German” Americans goose-stepped to war.  One thousand and counting Americans died in vain, along with some 30,000 Iraqis, and some 8000 U.S. soldiers got maimed for life, with unknown numbers of Iraqi’s wandering around mutilated in some fashion.  And then there is the DU poisoning. God only knows how many tens of thousands of people are getting poisoned for life by the depleted uranium.

 

As things stand now, sometime in 2005, Americans will beat a hasty retreat, under the pretext of some contrived imaginary political fig leaf, and we will see the last helicopter evacuation from Iraq...finishing the historical parallel of this Tragedy with the Tragedy of Vietnam.

 

If so, it will be the beginning of the end of both the American Century and the U.S. Constitution. A generation of upheaval and grievous conflict will ensue before the Americans can repose themselves and their society on a sounder basis.

 

FOR THE LASTEST SUMMARY BRIEFING ON THE SITUATION AND THE WAY OUT OF IT, GO TO

 

“A Letter To The Generals:  Saving Iraq and Saving The U.S.”

 

FOR A PDF VERSION, CLICK HERE.

 

HERE IS THE MAIN HOPE OUT OF THIS STRATEGIC IMPASSE:

 

AN AUTHENTIC ISLAMIC MORAL AUTHORITY IS ARISING AND IS BEGINNING TO FORGE A COALITION TO UNIFY IRAQ AND BRING CIRCUMSTANCES TO THE POINT WHERE THE AMERICANS CAN BE ASKED TO LEAVE.  QUICKLY. 

 

THE ARRANGEMENTS WILL BE FORGED BY JANUARY.  MORE PROBABLE THAN NOT, THE MULLAHS WILL ARRANGE THE ELECTION OF A GOVERNMENT WHICH ASSERTS ITS SOVEREIGNTY AND ASKS THE U.S. TO LEAVE VIRTUALLY IMMEDIATELY.

 

PASS THE WORD: THIS IS HOW IT WILL END IN IRAQ,

Michael Wells Mandeville,
The Hills of Arizona USA at mwman@earthlink.net
Master Website Index is at: http://www.michaelmandeville.com

Author of  several books, including: "Return of the Phoenix" at
http://www.michaelmandeville.com/phoenix/phoenix.htm
and "The Coming Economic Collapse of 2006" at
http://www.michaelmandeville.com/calendar/collapse2006.htm
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