PHOENIX FIVE EARTH CHANGES BULLETIN

Please Note: This Bulletin is conceived as a System. It is still in an early stage of evolution. We intend to progressively link into this synopsis system all of the major news feeds of Planet Earth which articulate aspects of the profound historical Change In The Earth which is underway.

Earth Changes Bulletin Update As Of November 17 2004

You have heard of the Weather Report? Here exclusively is this week’s "Earth Report" - a short review of the “big picture” about how the dynamic changes in the Sun and the Earth are effecting our lives more and more intensely, with the latest prognostications and predictions for weathermen, farmers, investors, businessmen, and every man.

You may click here for the full text of the Earth Changes Bulletin Update for this week, or use this URL

http://www.michaelmandeville.com/earthmonitor/ecbulletins/2004/ecb_Nov_17_04.htm

FOR THIS AMAZING GLOBAL WARMING YEAR

On the geophysical front, after last week’s exceptionally intense solar storms, flares, and magnetic storms, activity slowly abated and yesterday’s Sunspot Count fell to 46 despite the coming Mercury | Uranus alignment on November 20. Nonetheless the Solar Flux Index rose five points and probably heralds a sudden rise in Sunspots during the next week. As well, conditions along the equator are heralding ever more strongly each week that EL NINO MAY ARRIVE NEXT YEAR, perhaps in time to turn a cold, intense winter into a later warm and very wet winter. In the meanwhile enjoy the mild weather during the next few days, more stormfronts are coming in December. From below, six large quakes over 6.0 in magnitude, including a 7.5 to the Northwest of Australia, plus seven shape-shifter quakes, four around the Antarctica Tectonic Plate, marked the New Moon Perigee Syzygy Period. Activity will probably abate for the next three weeks and volcanism will most likely continue with only a very dull roar from only a very few volcanoes.

On the geopolitical front, The truly bad news remains. The U.S. armchair military strategists seem unable to understand the difference between saving a city and destroying it, in fact do not even get that they are merely destroying places where the insurgents once “were”. We can clearly see the same mentality at work which “lost” in Vietnam. Obviously Americans are deluded in thinking that a victory has been obtained and oh God why can’t they just go back and review how many times Americans were winning the war in Vietnam while they bombed it back into the stone age which such toxic pestilence it is still producing mutilated babies. Meanwhile, Paul Revere can be heard now more frequently as he rides the circuits shouting about vote fraud and the coming of the forces of the Imperial Junta who have come to overturn the Republic and return it to being a province of the Plutocracy. Doubtless now to nearly all with half a brain, a great war is coming for the soul of America and it will be fought on many fronts in many guises. Pray that it will not be with violence in the streets. Advocate only non-violence. Just remember, the current elections are not over until the Electoral College and the House of Representatives certify the elections – which will not be complete until mid January.

Go to detailed synopsis…

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NOTES

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Program Thesis:

What are we trying to do with the Earth Changes Bulletin?

Most news media do not handle technical and scientific subjects like geology and earth sciences very well. They don't understand the causes and effects of activities in the Sun and Earth. Accordingly, they often do not understand if, when, how, why to report earthquakes, volcanic activity, global warming effects The treatment often sounds absent-minded, poorly qualified, and frequently contains various technical errors. Seldom is the treatment entertaining and genuinely educational.

Based on new scientific principles which have emerged during the past thirty years, many of the dynamic activities of the Sun and Earth can be linked together to see how a range of effects are linked together. This makes it possible to paint "the big picture" into a perspective which explains many diverse events and processes, especially climate and weather patterns such as global warming and El Nino. From the "big picture", long range predictions can be made for weeks and even months ahead. The result is sophisticated cutting-edge information which is objective, balanced, astute, relevant, and can be easily seen and appreciated by lay audiences. The perspective is generally global, seldom parochial. For the framework of concepts, terms, and current conditions which are used or described in the these Bulletins, see the Earth Changes 2003 Almanac Calendar.

To see the internet resources which are used to prepare this Update, take a look at the Earth Monitor front page - http://www.michaelmandeville.com/earthmonitor/

The Bulletin is written in Arizona (UTC +8 hours) so any relative references, such as “Today”, or “Tomorrow”, or “Yesterday” should generally to taken to refer to the day spans as experienced in Western North America.

PREVIOUS
WEEKLY

UPDATES

SPONSORING:

THE COMING ECONOMIC COLLAPSE OF 2006, which puts today, tomorrow, and the trends together into the Cayce 25 year economic cycle which will “bottom” in 2006/2007. Click here to download

THIS BOOK STILL COOKS AND IT WILL COOK THE POLITICIANS AND THE ECONOMY ALL THE WAY THROUGH TO 2008: This synthesis is far ahead of the daily digests in all halls of the internet media: so far (since May 2003) the track record on this set of predictions for 2003-2008 is running 100 per cent. If you have not purchased this book, you will remain ignorant of the main dynamics which are rapidly changing everything.

LATEST UPDATE NOTE AS OF NOVEMBER 17, 2004:

As per stated below, the bubble is re-inflating for a few more weeks or even months if Al Qaeda does not attack. Oil prices are dropping as stocks and equities firm up and the economy continues expansion with the expectation that American Imperialism will continue (unfortunately) to drive international events during 2005. BEWARE SUDDEN REVERSALS WHEN ALQAEDA STRIKES. BEWARE THE EMERGING SUPER-COALITION IN EURASIA WHICH WILL PROGRESSIVELY UNDERCUT THE AMERICAN DOLLAR DURING 2005, GENERALLY IN A MEASURED WAY WHICH AVOIDS SUDDEN PANIC. This is not a hostile action, it is a sensible reaction of the world to the vast over-reach of America’s Imperial Pretenders. This will produce a strong trend of basic price inflation in the U.S. as basic material commodity prices and the cost of imported goods continue to rise. The world WILL solve the Balance of Payments problem, mainly by raising the dollar costs of imports beyond the means of Americans to purchase them.

LATEST UPDATE NOTE AS OF NOVEMBER 3, 2004:

On all economic fronts, hang tuff. The bubble will hang in there for a little while longer even if it is currently sagging under the high oil prices. Oil prices will come down this Winter and the rebuilding boom in the SE section of the country will keep the economy firm. Stocks will go back up with the decline in oil prices and so will the value of the dollar. All long term projection for the collapse in 2006 is still right on target. The main proviso in all things is Al Qaeda. The re-election of Bush will, more probable than not, bring Osama Bin Laden to order another major round of terrorist attacks against the U.S. with in a few weeks. Such attacks will likely have a major negative impact on the U.S. economy.

HOUSEKEEPING

MANDEVILLE IS ON THE RADIO EVERY WEDNESDAY WITH

Alex Merklinger (Millennium Radio) show at 6 PM Arizona Time (also 6 PM Pacific Daylight Saving Time). Regular Weekly Update For The Earth Changes Bulletin. To find Iway archives and stations, see Millennium Radio Network.

ALL DATES AND TIMES USED IN THE EARTH CHANGES BULLETIN ARE NOW UTC = Universal Time Constant, previously known as Greenwich Mean Time.

Begin Synopsis

As stated in the “Coming Economic Collapse of 2006”, the nature of human politics reflects the communication abilities of the human species. As we transform the media, as we have been on the Iway, we will transform human politics and the entire Earth. Making the way for the New Earth is operationally equivalent to making a new Media on the Iway. Not that that is all that there is to it. Not by a long shot…but IT IS one of the essentials we need to dissolve the blockages and dance around the tyrannies.

SPIRITUAL WATCH

How to converge and express the spirit of mass transformation into manifestation, HOW to be, IS the question. How to do is the praxis of the time. Examining this question, probing it, is the chief trendline of this year.

Want a little relief from depressing on pessimism? Get a little lift via this reference from Inspirit.

Go check this out everybody! It gave me hope for humanity and restored my

humor. We are not alone!!

The whole world is talking to us and we to them.

Inspirit

http://www.sorryeverybody.com/gallery/69/

NO CHANGE THIS WEEK FOR THE REMAINDER:

UNDERTAKE A RESOLUTE FOCUS

WALK AWAY FROM THE COMING WARS AND THE LEADERS WHO ARE PUSHING US INTO THE WARS OR INTO THEIR INDIRECT SUPPORT.

UTTERLY REFUSE THEM IN EVERY WAY THAT YOU CAN.

A great turning towards peace is underway in the hearts and minds of a great mass of humanity,

REGRETFULLY, A LARGE PROPORTION OF THE AMERICAN PEOPLE ARE STILL SOUND ASLEEP UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF UGLY EMOTIONS AND A THOUSAND NIGHTMARES OF SELF-DOUBT AND ACUTE DENIAL OF SELF-WORTH. IT APPEARS THAT AT LEAST A THIRD OF THE POPULATION IS BARELY ABOVE AN EMOTIONAL AGE-LEVEL OF 8 AND CAN OFFER LITTLE MORE THAN SERVING AS FASCIST FODDER.

Accordingly, America will remain under the thrall of lies and conceits while the merchants of dominance, hate, revenge, empire-building, violence, and conquest crow even more loudly on the world stage.

But even as they initiate to undertake a great militarization of North America for an ambitious expansion of empire-building over the Arab oil producing states, a consciousness is gathering greater focus to dissolve away the entire Bush-Alqaeda continuum of absolutism and militarism and replace its brutalities with profound movement en masse towards peaceful solutions.

The gathering movement did not wax strong enough to end the Bush Presidency, but perhaps the movement will never function successfully with the corrupted, archaic forms of the old United States.

Perhaps the movement has a greater destiny. Look for it. Greet it. Nourish it with love.

BREATH FREE. Let go of everything which is disturbed, distorted, or weird. Let go of everything which is forced, contrived, hidden, manipulative, and/or constrictive. Keep flowing with the rising tide of spiritual energies which are filling many thirsty souls. The old patterns are falling away. Transition continues. Embrace new relationships which are trying to form in your life if they are honest and straightforward and provide a new openness. Forget the fears of the unknown, embrace all that which lifts your life into the light of a greater understanding and relationship with the all.

EVERYTHING IS WORKING OUT DIFFERENTLY THAN PEOPLE ARE CURRENTLY FEARING OR PROJECTING. IT WILL CONTINUE TO BE SO. In a short while, some will come forth giving witness to a great energy which has come into their lives, literally, as if the hand of God was upon them. This is becoming more and more apparent and these words will have greater meaning by the end of the year.

Don’t react, go to center, get clear, release, and grieve…the Fourth Age is dying rapidly now… much more rapidly than we thought, its institutions and identities are beyond saving… let it go, let go, get to center…flow into God, let God flow into you…don’t speculate, don’t analyze, don’t react to the shtuff…clear…clean out the past four years…we are now free to grieve the death of everything we detested…let it go…let it go…let it die. As you re-center in God, find the realization that this is the final moment you have been waiting for to end your connections and involvements with the illusions and delusions of all that which has betrayed the divine within each and brought greed, war, and destruction over the Earth.

The destroyers belong to each other, this is now the final time of their fatal embrace. Let them love their wars…they have greatly desired the bitter wines of their hatreds and violence, they have lusted greatly for their Armageddon, and they shall have it.

The die has been cast with a thousand artifices and illusions. With the excellence of its manner of casting, God has delivered to you your own freedom from the delusions and spells of the Mass Sorcerers, indeed, from the entire age, if you will but realize it. Clear yourself and your life to find now the sense of movement and direction to separate your life from the dying culture which is putrefying all around you. There is no saving it…as Buckminster Fuller observed many decades ago, the old order is never saved, the new order merely grows up around it to eventually takes its place. So it will come to pass now in an intense period of vast change during the next twenty years.

The “Great Purification” predicted by the Hopi, Maya, Q’ero, and many others continues. How amazing that these ancient oral traditions could tune into last year and this one to advise us that this was a period of profound historical turning involving

The Great Purification

of the Earth? For additional discussion, see the commentary of May 19, 2004 and the commentary of June 16, 2004.

THE NEW BASIS IS GESTATING….

THE time to link the spiritual communities of the Earth. The Whole Earth. IT HAS BECOME URGENT TO LINK THE SPIRITUAL COMMUNITIES WITHIN A BROAD MOVEMENT WHICH PROVIDES NEW CURRENTS OF SPIRITUAL LEADERSHIP.

FOR THE MOST PART: Steady as she goes. A slow acceleration in the shifting of the poles has been underway for perhaps the past 100 years and the last three decades has shown an increase in the rate of acceleration. This has appeared to accelerate even more during the past decade.

POLAR MOTION

What is happening to the motion of the Earth. For the overall summary of the status of polar motion CLICK HERE. To see the current graphs of polar motion, CLICK HERE. Scroll down the page until you get to the black and white graphs with show the x and y coordinates of the North Spin Axis on two separate graphs.

THE PANCAKING OF THE X MAX PEAK WHICH WE OBSERVED LAST WEEK IS STILL UNDERWAY. (See the URL’s below for the xplot). I EXPECT A STRONG, SHARP REBOUND, quite possibly in connection with the New Moon Perigee of December 12. I expect this rebound will produce AN EXCEPTIONALLY STRONG SEISMIC PERIOD. (The sharper turning of the spiral wobble will produce more sudden shifts in the stress vectors of the Tectonic Plates and this is more likely to cause more sudden releases in the fault zones)

No major change as of November Day 17, 2004: North Spin Axis appears to moving fairly normally with one slight anomaly beginning to appear during the past 21 days.

For the most part, spiral wobble track is currently tightening up rapidly as it heads into its minima phase which will begin in 2006.

HOWEVER, THE X WAVE MAX, which we are in for the current 14 month spiral track, is showing some pancaking (see the xplot links below). Rather than a smooth bell-shaped curve, the X plot is currently plateauing. The Earth is showing some hesitancy to continue the spiraling wobble and is favoring slightly a motion at a vector which is keeping the Atlantic Hemisphere pushing towards the North.

THIS WATCH HAS BEEN SET TO LOOK EXACTLY FOR THIS TYPE OF DEPARTURE OF THE EARTH FROM ITS PREVIOUS SPIRALING WOBBLE TRACKS. Seeing the slight tendency of the Atlantic Hemisphere to continue pushing to the North CONFIRMS THE DEDUCTION FOR THE PROJECTED AVALANCHE OF THE CRUST WHICH WAS CALCULATED IN THE “RETURN OF THE PHOENIX”.

In general, the Wobble Track is showing continued tightening of the Chandler’s Wobble Spiral, as should be at this time in its 7 year Wobble Cycle, and the track seems to be conforming with a continued acceleration in the rate of drift, but this can be by no means certain until this 7 year cycle is over. In about two years we will be able to locate the minimum spiral of motion and then look for the average 7 year "location" of this past seven years for comparison with previous cycles.

http://maia.usno.navy.mil/xplot2.gif

http://maia.usno.navy.mil/yplot2.gif

MAGNETIC POLES – SHIFTING

What is happening to the magnetic fields of the Earth. No real change during the past year: a magnetic pole shift is not something to be very concerned about within this decade at least.

Currently, there is little of note. Despite many claims, there are no apparent trends which will hold up to historical analysis of many different regions of the Earth.

Asteroids

As of June 04,

NASA’S

ESTIMATE:

“Potentially Hazardous Asteroids (PHAs) are space rocks larger than approximately 100m that can come closer to Earth than 0.05 AU. None of the known PHAs (asteroids) are on a collision course with our planet, although astronomers are finding new ones all the time.”

PLANETS & ALIGNMENTS
(all time coordinates here and elsewhere are in UTC unless otherwise noted, dates for planetary alignments are derived from Home Planet Software using PC graphics, due to limitations of software and graphics display, actual timing may be off as much as three days, for scientific work, use a professional ephemeris for exact dates). For background and the current information on planetary alignments go to the Earth Changes Almanac Calendar. The Almanac lays out the planets and the lunar phases for entire year in advance to allow you to find the best and worst periods of weather, earthquake activity, ethereal “lunar” influences, etc.

Daily Planet – click here for sheer artistic pleasure

Every day John Walker’s (Home Planet Software) computer creates a new image of hypothetical habitable planet, just one every day for the estimated 2 billion potential habitable planets in our Galaxy, which the Egyptians more or less named Nun, a mother Goddess from which all life flows. Euro people nursery tales converted the name into the Milky Way. http://www.fourmilab.ch/terranova/terranovag.html

Moon Perigee/Apogee/Phase Data - click here to be always up to date

Earth/Moon Viewer by John Walker
http://www.fourmilab.ch/earthview/pacalc.html

Daily Solar System – click here to view Planet Alignments

The Home Planet software computes in real time the exact relative positions of the planets. Go here to view today’s image of the solar system as seen from a heliocentric view (the sun in the center, you looking at the entire solar system as if it were a big pancake. You can set any date and time. You should generally ask the form to give you the “equal orbits” view so you can see all the planets.

http://www.fourmilab.ch/cgi-bin/uncgi/Solar

LUNAR PERIGEE/APOGEE/PHASE TABLE FOR THE REMAINDER OF 2004

Distance

New 12-Nov 14:27

Perigee 14-Nov 13:55 362312 km N+1d23h

Full 26-Nov 20:08

Apogee 30-Nov 11:26 405951 km F+3d15h

Perigee 12-Dec 21:31 357985 km N+ 20h

New 12-Dec 1:29

Full 26-Dec 15:07

Apogee 27-Dec 19:16 406487 km F+1d 4h

For 2005, see the August 25 EC Update

TODAY’S MOON

We are in Lunation #1013 and we are now 6 days past the New Moon of November 12 at 14:27 UTC. As of November Day 17, the Moon this day is now deep into its South Node (orbiting South of the Equator). It is now approximately 365,000 KM from the Earth. It is 34% of the Full Moon (visibility or phase) now waxing rapidly into the Full Moon of November 26.

SEISMIC SYZYGY WINDOWS

QUALIFER: As we have seen at least three times this past year, most dramatically with the recent outbreak (Oct 23-26 2004) of large Earthquakes on the West side of Honsho Island (Japan), the Syzygy Window and Perigee principles DO NOT WORK CONSISTENTLY TO FORECAST AN INCREASE IN MAGNITUDE NOR FREQUENCY OF EARTHQUAKES. Using strictly an intuitive view of the past 12 months, the rate of accuracy is definitely larger than random but probably not larger than about 70% for any given area.

We have just left a New Moon - Perigee Syzygy which, as should have been expected, produced several large quakes, including a 7.5 quake in Indonesia and several major quakes off the coast of Columbia.

The next strong seismic syzygy remaining for 2004 will be the New Moon of December 12 which will include Perigee within 20 hours.

For describing the peak danger period for the most damaging earthquakes. this Perigee syzygy I will define arbitrarily as

December 10 – December 15 – This syzygy should produce more seismic energy release (earthquakes) than during most of the other syzygies of the preceding year.

Jim Berkland, the originator of using syzygy to define the most active periods of seismic activity has a more complex method for computing dates and you may want to use his methods for greater precision. For details see the Syzygy website

(Perigee = the Moon’s closest approach to the Earth during its monthly orbit which increases gravitational influence of the Moon by as much as 15%; Apogee = the Moon’s greatest distance from the Earth during its monthly orbit). (Berkland has a more complex formula for syzygy and his dates are often different.) For details see the Syzygy website.

THE NEXT PLANETARY ALIGNMENTS

For any “Home Planet Software” charts of the planets which are shown here or through URLS which are provided on this page, you can decipher which planet is which by counting the orbital rings if you do not know the signs which denote the planets. Mercury is 1 closest to the Sun, Venus is 2, Earth is 3, Mars is 4, Jupiter is 5, Saturn is 6, Uranus is 7, Neptune is 8, Pluto is 9, and both Planet X and Nibiru are bogus.

LIST OF ALIGNMENTS THROUGH TO DECEMBER 21, 2004

The outer planets are widely distributed and no new alignments are forming up between them. But many new alignments will be forming up during the next two months mainly as a result of Mercury’s rapid rotation around the Sun, which enables it to catching up and pass by the planets about every three months.

Here are the next three:

November 20 Mercury | Uranus

December 3 Venus | Jupiter

December 10 Mercury | Earth

Given the recent large build up of Sunspots during the U.S. elections, I would expect that the Mercury | Uranus alignment on November 20 could be quite strong in producing major sunspot and solar storm activity.

Last week I predicted that the peak should form up November 10-17 and produce huge storm fronts coming in off the oceans anytime from November 15 – 23. Quite obviously Central Casting has a different schedule in mind. It should now occur momentarily at any hour….perhaps as late as November 23 (which accommodates the longest lag I have noticed between sunspot peaks and the planetary alignments). So, consider November 18-23 the corrected sunspot peak prediction, with the next round of major ocean stormfronts rolling onto land from about November 23-28

An alignment of Venus | Jupiter on December 3 should prove productive of a new round of solar flares and sunspots beginning during the last week of November This activity will introduce an even greater flare-up during the first week in December for the Mercury | Earth alignment on December 10

PLANETARY ALIGNMENTS FOR LATE DECEMBER 2004 – JUNE 2005

For late December through to June 2005, four particular periods stand out for their potential to induce major reactions in the solar atmosphere and pull out huge ionic storms, high sunspot counts, and major effects on the Earth’s weather.

The Aphelion Six Way Cluster Bomb

At or near the Earth’s Apogee (closest approach to the Sun) Mercury will once again align progressively with the inner planets during a 30 day period. Expect an INTENSELY STORMY WINTER.

December 30, 2004 Mercury | Jupiter
Venus and Mars still close and Earth near Saturn alignment
January 13, 2005 Mercury & Mars close couple to
Venus | Pluto and Earth | Saturn
January 27, 2005 Mercury | Venus with Pluto close couple

The Spring Grand Alignment

Jupiter | Earth | Mercury | Sun | Venus

Beginning by about March 7, at least major peaks in the sunspot count should produce three major waves of early Spring storm fronts. The largest peak should form up about the Spring Equinox and the largest storm front should blow in about the time of the Grand Alignment

March 14, 2005 Mercury | Saturn
Spring Alignments begin in three main spirals
March 21,2005 Mars | Pluto with a spiral forming in
Mercury | Earth | Jupiter and another in Venus | Uranus
March 30, 2005 Jupiter | Earth | Mercury | Sun | Venus
form a virtual straight line through the solar system with Mars and Pluto still closely coupled. Observers on Earth will only be able to physically see Jupiter rising on the Eastern horizon just after sunset and Saturn close to the Mid-heavens in the Western half of the sky. In the very early morning Mars and Uranus visible

Summer Ping Pong

June 7, 2005 Venus | Saturn with Mercury moving up in close alignment, followed on June 10 , 2005 with Mercury forming a triplet with Venus and Saturn as Earth couples with Pluto and
Mars | Neptune. The timing of these alignments between these planets is not exact, the electromagnetic balances of the solar system will shift in a complex way, probably producing a number of ups and downs in the sunspot count.

PLANET WATCHING

For background and the current information on observable planets.

NASA'S DATA ON NEAR EARTH ASTEROIDS: "Potentially Hazardous Asteroids (PHAs) are space rocks larger than approximately 100m that can come closer to Earth than 0.05 AU. None of the known PHAs are on a collision course with our planet, although astronomers are finding new ones all the time.”

On 17 November 2004 there were 651 known Potentially

Hazardous Asteroids. For December 2004, NASA has listed two Earth-asteroid encounters ranging from 1.5 million to 2 million miles away (5 to 7 average Lunar distances).

NASA REPORTS ON THE LEONIDS: “The 2004 Leonid meteor shower is due to peak on Nov. 19th around 2149 GMT (4:49 p.m. EST). The timing favors observers in Europe and Asia, who might see as many as 60 meteors per hour--nice, but not like the jaw-dropping displays of recent years. You can also listen to the shower. The US Air Force Space Surveillance Radar (formerly NAVSPASUR) is monitoring the skies above the southern United States. Whenever a Leonid meteor streaks overhead, it records a ghostly ping: sample. Click on the link below to access a live audio stream from NAVSPASUR, provided by amateur astronomer Stan Nelson of Roswell, New Mexico: NAVSPASUR audio stream”

SUNSPOTS

The events in the solar atmosphere which impact weather and climate patterns, the magnetic field and auroras, including forecasts for the week, month, and year ahead. CLICK HERE for background information.

To follow the numbers below, click here to view the Solar Cycle 23 Chart. Or, get the data in a NOAA Table.

The Sunspot Count has steadily dropped from 70 on November 11 down to 46 as of November 16, contrary to what should be expected for the coming alignment of Mercury | Uranus on November 20.

What should be expected? Probably a late forming peak beginning at any hour during the next three days. The Solar Flux has been rising (from 96 to 108) the past three days and this rise usually heralds a sudden sharp rise in the sunspot count.

Continue to expect, then, another major sunspot peak anytime during the next six days.

Date Flux Sunspots Area

2004 11 11 95 70 550

2004 11 12 97 52 230

2004 11 13 96 50 220

2004 11 14 100 69 230

2004 11 15 106 57 320

2004 11 16 108 46 410

Though much calmer than the past several days, the current instability of the sun is likely to continue, perhaps with another round of major flares and CME’s possibly for as much as another week.

MONTHLY AVERAGES IN SOLAR CYCLE 23
These numbers are reported by Jan Alvestad

Over all, the sunspot average count (ISSN) for February 2004 was 46.0. March 2004 was even higher with the ISSN average count at 48.9 April’s count was radically lower at 39.3. The May 2004 average count of 41.5 was SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN in April. June 2004 was higher still with an average count of 43.2. and July took as even higher to an average count of 51. August’s count dropped the average to 40, which returns us to the point on the general curve which we reached during April 2004. The law of averages finally caught with the Sun during September. For the first time all year, sunspot activity fell below the 32.8 predicted average monthly count and was only 27.7

October became a major anomaly. The “smoothed” average count for October was predicted to be 32.5 but at 48.4 it was dramatically higher, 21 points above September’s average.

IT IS HIGHLY LIKELY NOW THAT THIS ANOMALY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH NOVEMBER. THE CURRENT HIGH SUNSPOT COUNTS HAVE PROVIDED A LONG, HIGH, RELATIVELY WIDE PEAK ON THE NUMBERS WHICH WILL DRIVE UP THE AVERAGE COUNT FOR NOVEMBER.

Once again we are reminded that the Sun and its cycles are really not very “average” and not very “cyclical” or “regular”. Nowhere can we find any evidence of an exact regularity, only constant variations. The Sun is and probably always has been a vast cauldron of chaotic storms, electro-magnetic upwellings, and enormous explosions and sudden flares (or CME’s) which can extend out as far as even the outer planets, producing somewhat chaotic impacts on the planets.

All this makes exact predictions of solar activity far beyond the pale of human science, even with first class models of the electromagnetic gradients created by the planets and their orbital relationships. From this it is easy to infer with considerable experience and conviction, that nothing on Earth can be foreseen, EXACTLY. Just as some order is inevitable, so is some chaos built directly into the cosmos.

But even so the average count should drop during the next 12 months to a monthly low in the range of 10. More and more, now and for the next half dozen years, the Sun will influence Earth’s atmosphere and weather less and less. Global Warming and El Nino type of phenomena will be more and more influential compared to the solar input. The geo-data we gather during the next three years about weather, climate, the Arctic, Antarctic, Drought Regions, etc. will be extremely valuable in telling us what the true long-term geo-trends really are.

SOLAR ACTIVITY

As reported by NASA/NOAA unless otherwise stated. (Sudden surprises and huge storms are always possible even during sunspot minima periods such as the one we are currently headed into). Descriptions and numbers are based on numbers as given by iway sources at about 1:00 – 3:00 PM Arizona Mountain Time (which does not have daylight savings time).

The Solar Wind was strong at: 402.3 km/s this hour while pushing a thick density of 1.7 protons/cm3”.

Solar activity is likely to get higher for several days.

Fluxgate Magnetometer: The Fluxgate Chart at the University of Alaska (which measures magnetic disturbances in the Earth’s atmosphere created by solar winds and ion storms) is showing today a few minor magnetic disturbances DURING the past 36 hours. (as of this time, about 2 PM Mountain time US). To see the Fluxgate moment to moment, CLICK HERE.

NASA AURORA WATCH: “Earth will glide through a solar wind stream on Nov. 19th or 20th, possibly sparking a geomagnetic storm at high latitudes. Sky watchers in, e.g., Alaska and Canada should be alert for auroras. EARTH AT NIGHT: On Nov. 7th and 8th, an intense band of auroras descended over the United States after a coronal mass ejection hit Earth's magnetic field. This is what the event looked like from space: [gallery]. "The aurora is the light band just south of the 45°N parallel," explains Mark Conner of the US Air Force Weather Agency (Meteorological Satellite Applications Branch). Note how bright they are, blotting out city lights on the ground below. Conner created this image using data from a US Air Force DMSP satellite. "DMSP satellites have low-light visible sensors capable of detecting nighttime phenomena such as aurora, city lights, and moonlight reflecting off clouds," he says.”

NASA PREDICTS “A solar wind stream flowing from this coronal hole could buffet Earth's magnetic field on or about Nov. 19th.” The overly conservative NASA reported a 1% probability of X-Class Flares, a 10% probability of M-Class Flares, and a 1%-15% probability of geomagnetic disturbances in the Earth’s atmosphere over the high latitudes (higher the latitude higher the probability).

Jan Alvestad reports: “The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled on November 16. Solar wind speed ranged between 363 and 447 km/sec. A weak low speed coronal flow arrived near 04h UTC and caused an increase in geomagnetic activity. Solar flux measured at 20h UTC on 2.8 GHz was 108.4. The planetary A index was 8 (STAR Ap - based on the mean of three hour interval ap indices: 8.0)...At midnight there were 4 spotted regions on the visible solar disk. The solar flare activity level was low. A total of 5 C class events was recorded during the day...November 14-16: No obviously Earth directed CMEs observed. A large CME was observed in LASCO C3 images at 08:42 UTC on November 16 from a location behind the northeast limb...Recurrent coronal hole CH127 in the northern hemisphere will be in a geoeffective position on November 15-18.”

Jan Alvestad predicts: “The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled on November 17. A high speed stream from coronal hole CH127 will likely begin to influence the geomagnetic field on November 18 and cause unsettled to active conditions until November 21 with a chance of minor storm intervals on Nov. 18 and 19.” Alvestad also predicts for the next 24 hours a 60-100% probability of coronal holes, a 0-20% probability of CME’s, and a 0-100% probability of M and/or X Class Flares.

WORLD WEATHER SUMMARY

Those who have been following the patterns have seen that the correlations between sunspot peaks and major storm fronts coming in off the oceans to track across the continents is roughly pretty good, sometimes very much exactly on the mark. Accordingly, our “sloppycasts” (approximate continental weather patterns) this past few years have proven out to be fairly worthwhile.

For the U.S. West Coast and now the Rocky Mountains Plateau, we are definitely in early Winter onset, extremely wet generally with lots of snow in the Mountains.

Expect major, highly energetic, larger than normal storm fronts to continue to sweep in across the Pacific Northwest and down all the way into the Pacific Southwest to slide across the mountains as they usually do into the Great Plains and Great Lakes.

This syndrome abated during the past few days as predicted. But most likely another major sunspot peak will drive another exceptionally wet and energetic storm front onto North America beginning about November 23-28.

Same for Europe

December is likely to see three major storm fronts, each forming up

about the time of each planetary alignment (or as much as ten days after the alignment, depending upon whether the sunspot peak leads (which is more often than not) or lags the alignment).

For this schedule, see Planets above

EARTH WEATHER PREDICTION FOR THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS

(Northern Hemisphere) This “sloppycast” is based on sunspot counts, planetary alignments, and visual data shown on satellite and radar.

Mild and Variable, perhaps a bit of rain and snow, but generally clearing for a few days.

EARTH WEATHER PREDICTION FOR FALL SEASON

(Northern Hemisphere) This “sloppycast” is based on sunspot counts, planetary alignments, and visual data shown on satellite and radar.

Next major storm fronts should appear about November 23-28, three more in December.

AS PREDICTED: TWILL BE A WHITE THANKSGIVING IN MANY HIGHER PARTS OF THE WESTERN U.S. Quite wet in lower elevations, from Pacific Coast to the Great Lakes.

KEEP WATCHING FOR THIS PATTERN: Global Warming could easily intensify the seasons, making a short bitterly cold Winter, longer intermediate stormy Spring and Fall seasons, and shorter but very hot and dry summers. Don’t we already see this pattern at work in the Northern Hemisphere?

SOUTHWEST CONDITIONS

This “sloppycast” is based on six years of living in the USA Pacific Southwest, the sunspot counts, planetary alignments, and visual data shown on satellite and radar.

Continued highly variable, highly unpredictable for the next 21 days but rain in the Sonoran Desert Plain is likely during the last week in November. Rain possible off and on during much of November, though this goes against the grain of the “average” “normal” climate pattern.

AS PREVIOUSLY REPORTED: For a large part of the elevations below 4000 feet in the Southwest, the general drought in the Western U.S. is still holding sway but it is seemingly beginning to gradually break up.

For higher elevations, 5000 feet and above, much rain and snow has already come in many areas, much more on the way.

More and more, it is looking like the Winter of 2005 may bring in an El Nino during the first half of the year. At this point, everyone in the Southwest should begin to pray in earnest for a HUGE El Nino effect. During the last El Nino, the Southwest received substantial water.

Speaking of which….

EL NINO & LA NINA WATCH
The watch is now open again; Pacific water activity appears mostly normal, we are between the extremes of the ENSO; Click here for the NOAA window on the Pacific Ocean Temperatures:

http://www.cdc.noaa.gov/map/clim/sst_olr/sst_animated.gif

EL NINO COMING FOR 2005???

AS OF NOVEMBER 7, CONDITIONS FOR EL NINO ARE MORE PROPITIOUS THEN EVER – HEATING HAS CONTINUED TO PRODUCE MORE HOTTER THAN NORMAL WATER ALONG THE EQUATOR. Ocean surface temperatures along the Pacific Equator are now trending rapidly into The Classic El Nino Condition. A large expanse of the Pacific Equator is now warmer than normal and two nodes of considerably hotter than normal water can be seen to be forming up at about long. East 170 and at about Long. West 90 (this near the Galapagos Islands). THIS BUILD UP CONTINUED THROUGH THE LAST REPORT OF NOVEMBER 7.

Could be El Nino. It definitely smells like one. It is beginning to walk like one…Now we need to see if it continues to walk like one during the next couple of weeks.

AS REPORTED PREVIOUSLY – THE CLASSIC EL NINO – We do not at this point know whether an El Nino is in the offing for 2005. Purely in accordance with the X Wave correlation which I discovered in the Vortex Tectonics Model, AN EL NINO IS MORE PROBABLE THAN NOT IN 2005. But, the El Nino is not like an astrophysical cycle. There are some “missing” El Nino’s in the record of the 20^th century and we may have a missing one. HOWEVER, WE CAN’T BE CERTAIN UNTIL ABOUT APRIL OF 2005, which is about the latest month in which the syndrome has formed up during previous El Nino’s.

ADDITIONAL NOTE: The year 2004 and/or 2005, in accordance with the 100 year X Wave Graph of the motion of the spin axis in Chandler’s Wobble, COULD BE EL NINO YEARS. Graphs of various El Nino periods seem to show that the beginning of temperature build-up can occur as late as April of an El Nino year. So 2005 may not be callable until early Spring 2005.

KEEP WATCHING THE ARCTIC, ANTARCTIC, and the desert zones. These areas are the most objective front line observatories of the climate shift.

GLOBAL WARMING

It is becoming obvious that we have a long term real shift in the average temperatures and climate regions related to the latitudes. This climate shift is creating a growing environmental disaster in the polar zones and in the desert-prone latitudes such as in the Pacific Southwest. For the latest short review, see Earth Changes Bulletin Update As Of May 26, 2004 and the Earth Changes Bulletin Update As Of August 18, 2004

NO CHANGE THIS WEEK

More or less, the Pacific Southwest will probably begin to face the bitter but essential facts of life on a “Global Warming Earth”. More probable than not, global warming is inducing this current drought condition, which is about the worst drought in at least 400 years (which is estimated from the general life of the “old growth’ Ponderosa Pine which the drought continues to kill).

As the water tables continue to drop and especially as the Colorado River reservoirs continue to dry up, engineers and technical people are already discussing the huge impact a ‘water freeze” will have on the economics of the southwest. It will mean no more permits for construction, for one thing, in the Sonoran desert, or in the Mojave, Las Vegas, etc.

More probable than not, the economics and politics of the Pacific Southwest will transition during 2005 into the new politics and economics of extreme water scarcity.

But, an El Nino next year, which is still very much a possibility, would most likely delay the transition for about 18 months.

When this transition begins, it will form up a terrible political war between the owners of the last significant unused aquifers of North America (the Hopi, Navaho, and Apache) and the crazy white man world of plutocratic real estate development corporations which dominate the political order in Arizona, Nevada, and Southern California.

AS PREVIOUSLY REPORTED ABOUT THE LIKELY IMPACT OF GLOBAL WARMING ON HURRICANES–

For others comments on Global Warming,

Earth Changes Bulletin Update As Of August 25, 2004

For backgrounder information about Global Warming and how to look for it and correlate it to the real causes (solar influx and tectonic heat rifts in the bottoms of the oceans), see

Earth Changes Bulletin Update As Of July 14, 2004

IONIZING SOLAR ACTIVITY & MASS BEHAVIOR

THE FOLLOWING FROM LAST WEEK IS MORE IMPORTANT THAN EVER…THE SUNSPOT PEAK MAY FORM UP AS LATE AS NOVEMBER 23.

STIRRING THE POT WITH VOTESCAM 2004?

ANOTHER PERIOD OF CHAOS AND BLIND EMOTIONALISM IS ENVELOPING US RAPIDLY. EVEN THE EVER-DRY NADER HAS JOINED THE FRY WITH A HUGE FIRE IN HIS BELLY AND HE IS NOW RIDING THE CIRCUITS LIKE THE HALLOWEEN HEADLESS HORSEMAN HELL-BENT TO OVERTURN THE ELECTIONS WITH CHARGES OF VOTER FRAUD.

INTERESTING IS IT NOT THAT MERCURY, THE GOD’S MESSENGER IS COMING INTO AN ALIGNMENT ON NOVEMBER 20 WITH THE PLANET WHICH IS SAID TO SYMBOLIZE MASS CHANGE – URANUS. Watch that correlation and see if it makes any sense to you.

Will Ralph Nader single-handedly (with thousands of activist supporters) do for the Democratic Party what its leadership, AS EVER, is too timid to do.

Reaction upon reaction upon reaction. So much of it in Iraq is wrong-headed. How about in the U.S….? Who’s reactions are rational, who’s are loony bin? An interesting question is it not? In an era of rapid disintegration of the social consensus, what is real and what is not becomes quite difficult. Blow in 150 sunspots and a few X-Class flares, the natives get down-right “edgy” and tend to lose their sense of restraint in all things.

Count on very little stability, let things go, let things melt, let things find their own way. They will anyway…and traveling with the flow is always a lot easier.

But I don’t mean float into oblivion…keep focusing on where you really need to be, what you really ought to be doing proactively…And in the meanwhile, DON’T IGNORE THE VOTESCAM ISSUES AND DATA. I HAVE THIS FEELING THAT IT IS VERY VERY IMPORTANT.

EARTHQUAKES

Around the world to see the current and potential patterns of seismic activity, with coverage of the windows of danger. Unless otherwise specified, all quake activity which is discussed is based on the USGS database charts and tables which list quake activity in excess of 2.0 mag. and above. Unfortunately there are many lags in reporting of information about quakes, thus neither the numbers of quakes nor the actual quakes discussed may be complete and accurate. Real time analysis of quake patterns is merely AN APPROXIMATION BASED ON INCOMPLETE INFORMATION. FOR MORE QUAKE INFO RELATED TO SYZYGY WINDOWS, Jim Berkland calculates syzygy windows with considerably more sophistication than I do. See Syzygy.com

The Seismic Syzygy we have just left (November 10-16) experienced a decline in overall frequency of earthquakes but a rather decided increase in magnitude. At least six quakes above 6.0 magnitude, including a 7.5, struck along the Australian Tectonic Plate and in Japan.

Like the preceding seven days, the greater portion of the world’s seismic energy above 3.0 for the last seven days, was expressed along the Western edge of the Pacific Ocean Tectonic Plate and along the edge of the Australian Tectonic Plate.

Most other quake activity was fairly randomized but with distinct hot zones in Chile, Columbia, Japan, the Philippines, and in general around the Australian Tectonic Plate, clearly making Australia the most active plate for the week. The Japanese quakes were less in frequency than during the preceding seven days, but the other areas saw an increase.

The 7.5 struck to the Northwest of Australia, near East Timor in Indonesian waters. Though the quake struck in the ocean bottom, there was damage reported on some islands. Several other large aftershocks in the range of 5.0 also struck the area.

Significant activity continued in the Solomon Islands (Northeast of Australia) with a 6.9 quake.

Shapeshifting produced another seven mild quakes in the Great Rift of the Earth, four focused along the Antarctic Tectonic Plate.

The quake activity for the past seven days propagated in a distinct pattern. Major seismic activity continued over from the previous week in the Solomon Islands. After a 6.7 quake in the Solomon’s’ (along with others), the predominance of activity began to shift up the Pacific Rim of Fire into two major arcs, first to the West along the Australian Plate and then up through the Philippines to Japan. Activity also shifted into Chile and then up to Columbia.

This pattern seems to illustrate fairly clearly the main thesis I have been claiming for many years, that the tectonic motion (and thus the quakes) is produced by the action of the Sun and Moon on the Earth’s crust which produces the wobble. As the Earth wobbles each year to change the orientation of the poles to the Sun, it produces a differential pull on the North and the South Poles, inducing the movement of the crust which results in quakes and volcanoes. The activity this week seemed to show that type of pattern quite clearly. The Antarctic Plate is now being pulled UP by the Sun to create Summer on the South Pole. This pulling flexed all the joints of Antarctica with amazing symmetry (see below). The impact of this release along the edges of Antarctica produced a flow of earthquakes, whereby the focal point of activity steadily progressed up from the South along both sides of the Pacific.

COSA NOSTRA DAMUS WATCH FOR SOUTH CAL.

AS PREVIOUSLY OBSERVED: according to the Cosa Nostra Damus Prophecy, a major destructive quake could now strike at any time in Santa Barbara, Santa Monica, Hollywood, the Van Nuys Valley region, Bakersfield, and anywhere along the escarpment of the San Bernardino Mountains. This will be a follow up to the 4.9 quake which was felt in Coos Bay Oregon during July 2004. If a quake occurs near Santa Barbara, warnings will need to be given to Mexico City about the possibility of a major explosive event in Popo.

SLOW EARTH MOVEMENT WATCH

No reports to add this week

SHAPE-SHIFTERS WATCH

The quake activity in the Great Rift is one of the most important harbingers for the Earth Changes Watch to monitor. As the Earth’s crust adjusts its shape in response to gravitational and spin energy vectors, quakes in the Great Rift increase and tectonic activity all around the world increases. (Unless otherwise specified, all quake activity which is discussed is based on the USGS LOCAL AREA database charts and tables which list quake activity in excess of 3.0 mag. and above. Generally most of the quakes which appear in these counts are 4.5 plus in magnitude.) For additional information on Plate Tectonics and charts of the Great Rift of the Earth, go to Plate Tectonics Map

Seven shape-shifter quakes struck in the Great Rift, four along the margin of the Antarctic Tectonic Plate at its complex junctions with the other Tectonic Plates. Two more struck in the East Pacific Rise and the seventh struck in the Owen Fracture Zone (where Africa is spreading apart from the Arabian Peninsula).

What was most remarkable about the Antarctica quakes were not their modest size but their uniformity. Three were 5.0, on was 4.5, and they struck roughly equidistant around the bottom of the Earth, one below Latin America, one below Africa, one below Australia, and one below the middle of the Pacific Ocean.

These quakes may illustrate an important tectonic fact. I stress the word “may” because I cannot prove it without doing a lot of database work, but they seem to reveal that the Sun’s gravity is now beginning to reach its peak influence for the year over Antarctica. As the Earth approaches its Perihelion orbit point (closest approach to the Sun on January 6^th, approximately) the Sun pulls up the bottom-heavy Earth to orient the entire continent to the Sun, making a 24 hour day. This stronger than normal pull on Antarctica induces movements in the other tectonic plates and one of the regular consequences is an outbreak of volcanism in the Indian Ocean and Africa, which then is followed by several months of increased activity in many other of Earth’s volcanoes.

I have not noticed this seasonal correlation before with Rift quakes around Antarctica, but that may be because I was not looking for them. This is a worthy target of a research paper. Some dedicated database and charting work should be able to prove up (or disprove) the point. What to look for: a regular seasonal variation in the Rift quakes. Set to screen out all activity below 3.0 magnitude. Look for a regular seasonal variation and a long slow steady trendline of increase to the present day. Start with 1958 as the beginning date for the database.

Magnitude 5.0 SOUTH SANDWICH ISLANDS REGION

Friday, November 12, 2004 at 02:54:54 UTC

Preliminary Earthquake Report

http://neic.usgs.gov/neis/bulletin/neic_qtac.html

U.S. Geological Survey, National Earthquake Information Center

Location 59.73S 27.87W

Depth 146.2 kilometers

Region SOUTH SANDWICH ISLANDS REGION

Reference 115 km (70 miles) SW of Bristol Island, South Sandwich Islands

340 km (210 miles) S of Visokoi Island, South Sandwich Islands

795 km (500 miles) SE of Grytviken, South Georgia

3585 km (2220 miles) SSE of BUENOS AIRES, Argentina

Magnitude 5.0 SOUTH OF AFRICA

Tuesday, November 16, 2004 at 09:27:20 UTC

Preliminary Earthquake Report

http://neic.usgs.gov/neis/bulletin/neic_qxar.html

U.S. Geological Survey, National Earthquake Information Center

Location 52.69S 27.96E

Depth 10.0 kilometers

Region SOUTH OF AFRICA

Reference 960 km (590 miles) SW of Marion Island, Prince Edward Islands

2550 km (1580 miles) S of Durban, South Africa

Magnitude 4.5 WEST OF MACQUARIE ISLAND

Thursday, October 28, 2004 at 06:51:50 UTC

Preliminary Earthquake Report

http://neic.usgs.gov/neis/bulletin/neic_qdcl.html

U.S. Geological Survey, National Earthquake Information Center

Location 57.24S 147.96E

Depth 10.0 kilometers

Region WEST OF MACQUARIE ISLAND

Reference 745 km (460 miles) WSW of Macquarie Island, Australia

1125 km (700 miles) NNE of Dumont d'Urville, Antarctica

2175 km (1350 miles) S of MELBOURNE, Victoria, Australia

2445 km (1520 miles) S of CANBERRA, A.C.T., Australia

Magnitude 5.0 PACIFIC-ANTARCTIC RIDGE

Tuesday, November 16, 2004 at 07:13:47 UTC

Preliminary Earthquake Report

http://neic.usgs.gov/neis/bulletin/neic_qxca.html

U.S. Geological Survey, National Earthquake Information Center

Location 55.60S 138.49W

Depth 10.0 kilometers

Region PACIFIC-ANTARCTIC RIDGE

Reference 3720 km (2310 miles) SE of WELLINGTON, New Zealand

Magnitude 4.2 OWEN FRACTURE ZONE REGION

Wednesday, November 17, 2004 at 05:57:51 UTC

Preliminary Earthquake Report

http://neic.usgs.gov/neis/bulletin/neic_qybz.html

U.S. Geological Survey, National Earthquake Information Center

Location 14.63N 53.35E

Depth 10.0 kilometers

Region OWEN FRACTURE ZONE REGION

Reference 215 km (135 miles) N of Qalansiyah, Socotra Island, Yemen

275 km (170 miles) SSW of Salalah, Oman

455 km (285 miles) E of Al Mukalla, Yemen

990 km (610 miles) E of SANA, Yemen

Two quakes of equal sizes within a few minutes of each other occurred here:

Magnitude 5.6 NORTHERN EAST PACIFIC RISE

Friday, November 12, 2004 at 20:13:14 UTC

Preliminary Earthquake Report

http://neic.usgs.gov/neis/bulletin/neic_qtch.html

U.S. Geological Survey, National Earthquake Information Center

Location 8.27N 102.95W

Depth 10.0 kilometers

Region NORTHERN EAST PACIFIC RISE

Reference 725 km (450 miles) ESE of Clipperton Island

1305 km (810 miles) SSW of MEXICO CITY, D.F., Mexico

Location Quality Error estimate: horizontal +/- 12.2 km; depth fixed by location program

Location Quality

Parameters Nst=68, Nph=68, Dmin=1715.7 km, Rmss=0.82 sec, Erho=12.2 km, Erzz=0 km, Gp=153.8 degrees

NORTH AMERICAN WATCH

Unless otherwise specified, all quake activity which is discussed is based on the USGS LOCAL AREA database charts and tables which list quake activity in excess of 1.0 mag. and above. Generally most of the quakes which appear in these counts are in the range of 1 to 2 in magnitude. Any numbers used in this section may or may not be accurate and may or may not reflect what will eventually appear in scientific databases.

Seismic activity in North America overall for quakes in the range of 1.0 and over was generally down this last week. Activity has basically randomized, the hotspots of Parkfield-Paso Robles and Long Valley – Mono Lake have largely returned to ranges of activity which have been typical for the past several years.

Two remaining hotspots remain, literally, St. Helens and Tahoma. Increased levels of seismic activity continue, though it is far below the level which is indicative of a eruption in process of emerging.

NOTE: Most volcano monitoring sites appear to be screening out microquakes. A study needs to be done to establish how to reconcile various lists and databases because of this practice. The numbers below cannot be considered to be definitive totals and subtotals. We use them merely to observe relative fluctuations from week to week.

US & ALASKA & ISLANDS --- 597

down from 603 the prior week

BIG ISLAND HAWAII (not including microswarms) --- 12

up from 9 during the prior week - these do not include the microquakes under Mauna Loa

CALIFORNIA – NEVADA --- 352

down from 397 last week, widely scattered in California and Nevada;

LONG VALLEY - MONO LAKE REGION -- 31

down from 36 last week.

PNW --- 113

up from 44 last week, at least 97 directly related to St. Helens and Tahoma (Rainier). Apparently the USGS in the PNW is now screening out at least some volcano related quakes from the main quake database, but the majority of the microquakes in the PNW for the past week were obviously related to the primary volcanoes in the Cascade range . I still have little confidence in Pacific Northwest Numbers because of issues of quake database screening and inclusion of seismic activity related to volcanoes.

UTAH --- 31

down from 16 last week.

YELLOWSTONE WATCH

YELLOWSTONE -- 0

down from 6 last week

WEEK’S MOST SIGNIFICANT QUAKES

Magnitude 7.5 - KEPULAUAN ALOR, INDONESIA

2004 November 11 21:26:41 UTC

Preliminary Earthquake Report

http://earthquake.usgs.gov/eqinthenews/2004/usqsci/

U.S. Geological Survey, National Earthquake Information Center

A major earthquake occurred at 21:26:41 (UTC) on Thursday, November 11, 2004. The magnitude 7.5 event has been located in KEPULAUAN ALOR, INDONESIA. (This event has been reviewed by a seismologist.)

Magnitude 7.5

Date-Time Thursday, November 11, 2004 at 21:26:41 (UTC)

= Coordinated Universal Time

Friday, November 12, 2004 at 5:26:41 AM

= local time at epicenter

Time of Earthquake in other Time Zones

Location 8.172°S, 124.856°E

Depth 10 km (6.2 miles) set by location program

Region KEPULAUAN ALOR, INDONESIA

Distances

90 km (55 miles) WNW of DILI, East Timor

260 km (160 miles) NNE of Kupang, Timor, Indonesia

360 km (225 miles) ENE of Ende, Flores, Indonesia

810 km (500 miles) NW of DARWIN, Northern Territory, Australia

Felt Reports At least 25 people killed, 234 injured, 781 buildings destroyed and 7616 damaged on Alor. Roads blocked in some areas due to landslides. Felt (VIII) at Kalabahi. Felt as far away as Dili, Timor.

VOLCANOES

Around the world with the most interesting and relevant volcano stories; briefs on the likely eruptions as well as coverage of on-going activity. For information on current eruptions, see the Southwest Volcano Centre. Or see “Breaking Volcano Eruption News”.

OBSERVABLE WORLD VOLCANIC ACTIVITY IS ABOUT THE SAME AS LAST WEEK. THOSE VOLCANOES WHICH ARE ACTIVE ARE STILL QUITE ACTIVE AND DANGEROUS.

As last week, little change. Saint Helens is building a dome relatively rapidly and steam emissions are increasing, Colima is still oozing lava, as is Kilauea and Etna. Grimsvotn on Iceland has quieted down but Manaam in Indonesia has started a modest eruption. A few other smokers are still at it.

Volcano Belinda
– Due to the role of “upheavals” in the polar zones, according to Edgar Cayce’s Earth Changes predictions, this should be watched carefully.

WATCH THIS ONE CAREFULLY. The continued occurrence of shape-shifter quakes in the vicinity of the South Sandwich Islands makes this a high profile tectonic change point and a bellwether of worldwide plate motion.

REPEATED FROM LAST WEEK: One new eruption was reported for a volcano on the edge of the Antarctic Tectonic Plate where it forms the South Sandwich Islands below South America. As of the 4th of November, the Global Volcanism Network (GVN) has reported that according to NASA's Earth Observatory News website, the IKONOS satellite acquired an image of Montagu Island (Mount Belinda) on 1 October that showed a steaming vent, and dark basaltic tephra covering ice surfaces N of the lava that erupted down the volcano's N flank. A steam plume drifted N, and light coloured clouds surrounded the S side of the crater.

The South Sandwich Islands are situated approximately between the southern tip of South America and mainland Antarctica. Montagu Island is dominated by the long-dormant Mount Belinda stratovolcano, which rises 1370 meters above sea level. This volcano is totally ice-covered, and until late 2001, it was inactive, thereby accumulating a thick cover of ice and snow. However, as this image above shows, the volcano began erupting in late 2001, spewing basaltic lavas that have melted the ice, producing a marvelous “natural laboratory” for studying lava-ice interactions relevant to the biology of extreme environments as well as to processes believed to be important on the planet Mars. The Current Colour Code for volcano Mt. Belinda is currently at ORANGE.. The Mt. Belinda volcano in the Sandwich Islands (Antarctica) was successfully forecasted by SWVRC's programme ERUPTION Pro 10.5 to erupt in 2004 with 76% probability.

SAINT HELENS VOLCANO UPDATES

Text in this section is a condensation of direct quotes from online source:

CURRENT UPDATE supplied by the U.S. Geological Survey, Vancouver, Washington; University of Washington, Pacific Northwest Seismograph Network, Seattle, Washington; U.S. Geological Survey, Vancouver, Washington; University of Washington, Pacific Northwest Seismograph Network, Seattle, Washington

U.S. Geological Survey, Vancouver, Washington

University of Washington, Pacific Northwest Seismograph Network, Seattle, Washington

November 17, 2004 09:30 am PST (1730 UTC)

Current status is Volcano Advisory (Alert Level 2); aviation color code ORANGE

Growth of the new lava dome inside the crater of Mount St. Helens continues and is accompanied by intermittent emissions of steam and ash. As long as this eruption is in progress, episodic changes in the level of activity can occur over days, weeks, or even months. Increase in the intensity of eruption could occur suddenly or with very little warning and may include explosive events that produce hazardous conditions within several miles of the volcano. Small lahars (volcanic debris flows) could suddenly descend the Toutle River valley if triggered by heavy rain or by interaction of hot rocks with snow or glacier ice. These lahars pose a negligible hazard below the Sediment Retention Structure (SRS) but could pose a hazard to people along the river channel upstream of the SRS. At this time of year, it is not unusual for rivers draining the volcano to contain high concentrations of sediment that turn the water murky.

Although considered less likely at this time, the current eruptive activity could evolve into a more explosive phase that affects areas farther from the volcano and sends significant ash thousands of feet above the crater where it could be a hazard to aircraft and to downwind communities.

Wind forecasts from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), coupled with eruption models, show that ash clouds that rise high above the crater rim today would drift east-northeastward.

Seismicity remains at a low level compared to that observed early in this unrest. The current seismicity is consistent with a continuing, slow rise of magma driving uplift of the crater floor and feeding the extrusion of lava onto the surface. Since Monday night, the crater floor has been shaken by as many as eight earthquakes greater than magnitude 2 and as large as mag-2.8. Although slightly larger than seen recently, they represent nothing unusual in the expected growth of a lava dome, a complex process that varies slightly on a day-to-day or week-to-week basis. The overall low rates of seismicity and gas emission suggest that the lava reaching the surface is gas poor, thereby reducing the probability of highly explosive eruptions in the near term.

The volcano webcam this morning shows a clear view to the crater, although low clouds are gathering. The steam plume that rises from the dome is drifting northeastward. Weather permitting, field crews will try to complete missions that include gas monitoring, photogrammetry, and FLIR-camera infrared monitoring. An attempt will be made to recover and replace, by helicopter slingline, a defective GPS receiver that was installed on the new dome.

For additional information, background, images, and other graphics: http://vulcan.wr.usgs.gov/News/framework.html

For a webcam view of the volcano:

All other volcanoes in the Cascade Range are all at normal levels of background seismicity. These include Mount Baker, Glacier Peak, Mount Rainier, and Mount Adams in Washington State; Mount Hood, Mount Jefferson, Three Sisters, Newberry, and Crater Lake, in Oregon; and Medicine Lake, Mount Shasta, and Lassen Peak in northern California.

USGS Cascades Volcano Observatory, the Pacific Northwest Seismograph Network at the University of Washington, and the USGS Northern California Seismic Network and Volcano Hazards Team in Menlo Park, California, monitor the major volcanoes in the Cascade Range of northern California, Oregon, and Washington. The U.S. Geological Survey and the University of Washington continue to monitor the situation closely and will issue additional updates and changes in alert

For additional information, background, images, and other graphics: http://vulcan.wr.usgs.gov/News/framework.html

For seismic information: http://www.pnsn.org/HELENS/welcome.html

For a definition of alert levels: http://vulcan.wr.usgs.gov/News/framework.html

Telephone recordings with the latest update on Mount St. Helens and phone contacts for additional information can be heard by calling: Media (360) 891-5180 General public (360) 891-5202

OTHER CASCADE VOLCANOES as of November Day 17 2004
Same source as above.

LATEST FORECAST FOR SAINT HELENS BY EC BULLETIN: Look to mid-month in December for increases in activity (see the syzygy periods defined above).

AS REPORTED PREVIOUSLY: Colima may be the closest “model” for how St. Helens may behave during the next few years. Both may erupt off and on with lava flows, as Colima is now, or with occasional ash plumes, then slowly stewing for weeks and months on end while merely steaming like nearly two dozen other volcanoes around the world, steaming until the next eruptive episode of ash and lava, which may last from a few days to several months. More probable than not, St. Helens will have sudden flare-offs and a few major ash plumes during the next year, but no major, explosive eruption which comes even close to its 1980 eruption. It will continue to sporadically emit steam and ash like Colima and Popo for the next few years. How much and how vigorously remains unpredictable.

More probable than not during the next 90 days, perhaps with some fits and starts related to Lunar Motion. Most probable is

(a) the New Moon Perigee Syzygy of December.

Here are the SWVC volcanic activity numbers as of November Day 17 2004:

5 on restless list (could go on active list at any moment) (same as last week)

49 on alert list (pre-cursors suggesting that activity may begin) (same as last week)

21 on active list (seismic, gas, steam, lava, ash, or explosive activity) (same as last week)

Same as last week, Popo gave a 14 puff day yesterday, down from 19 last Tuesday. Centrapred reports for November Day 17 (17:00 GMT) that “In the last 24 hours the monitoring system of Popocatepetl volcano recorded only 14 low intensity exhalations accompanied by steam and gas emissions. The other monitored parameters remain without important changes. At the moment of this report we can observe the volcano with a light emission of steam and gas.”

HIGHLY INTERESTING NEW PLATE TECTONICS RESOURCE:

Digital World Tectonic Activity Map (DTAM) - visualization tool that presents an actual representational view of global tectonics; created using current global datasets of seismicity, volcanism, and plate motions.

MOST ACTIVE VOLCANOES THIS WEEK

from Volcano Breaking News by Volcanologist John Seach

Volcano Travel: john@volcanolive.com

Dates in red are posted in Eastern Australian Time (UT + 10 hr)

Miyake-jima Volcano (Japan)
34.08 N, 139.53 E, summit elevation 815 m, stratovolcano
Wednesday 17th November 2004
Some shops and accommodation facilities reopened this month on Miyake-jima island ahead of residents' scheduled return in February 2005. The island was evacuated in 2000 due to volcanic activity. Fifteen accommodation facilities and six shops have reopened on the island, and 10 other shops are expected to reopen by the end of the month. The volcano continues to emit SO2 gas.
More on Miyake-jima Volcano...

Mt Etna (Italy)
37.73 N, 15.00 E, summit elevation 3350 m, Shield volcano
Wednesday 17th November 2004
Two active lava flows continue at Mt Etna volcano. The flows originate at 2620m and 2350m elevation and flow in the Valle del Bove towards the craters Monti Centenari.
More on Mt Etna Volcano...

Kilauea Volcano (Hawaii)
19.425 N, 155.292 W, summit elevation 1222 m, Shield volcano
Wednesday 17th November 2004
Lava continues to enter the ocean at Kilauea volcano in Hawaii. A new arm of the lava flow feeding the ocean entry has formed 180m back from the coast, and may reach the sea in a few days.
More on Kilauea Volcano...
Volcanoes of Hawaii...

Kilauea Volcano (Hawaii)
19.425 N, 155.292 W, summit elevation 1222 m, Shield volcano
Sunday 14th November 2004
The lava delta at Kilauea volcano has an area of 0.6 hectares. It extends 190m parallel to the shore and 57m seawards. The lava cascades over the old sea cliff are in tubes and not visible. A small surface lava flow is visible at about 1600 ft elevation high on Pulama pali, inland from the coast.
More on Kilauea Volcano...
Volcanoes of Hawaii...

Mt St Helens Volcano (USA)
46.20 N, 122.18 W, summit elevation 2549 m, stratovolcano
Sunday 14th November 2004
Lava dome growth continues at Mt St Helens volcano. Over the past few days there has been an upward growth of at least several metres. Gas emissions are slightly higher than those earlier in the week. The volcano is currently at Alert Level 2. A change in the level of eruption could occur without warning and may include explosions that produce hazardous conditions within several miles of the volcano.
More on Mt St Helens volcano...
Volcanoes of USA...

Indonesia Earthquake (Magnitude 7.3)
Friday 12th November 2004
A major earthquake (magnitude 7.3) occurred in eastern Indonesia on Friday, November 12, 2004 at 5:26 AM local time. The epicenter was located at Kepulauan Alor, 100 km (60 miles) WNW of Dili, East Timor, at a depth of 38km. Six people were killed, and 100 injured. The death toll could rise because there have been no reports from remote areas on the island. A number of aftershocks have been recorded. Indonesia is located on a subduction zone and is subjected to frequent earthquakes and volcanic eruptions.
Volcanoes of Indonesia...

Manam Volcano (Papua New Guinea)
4.10 S, 145.06 E, summit elevation 1807 m, Stratovolcano
Friday 12th November 2004
Manam volcano has erupted in Papua New Guinea. Ash emissions reached 30,000 ft elevation 40 nautical miles W/NW of the volcano, and 20,000 ft elevation 80 nautical miles to SW, as of 0730 hr UT on 11th November.
More on Manam Volcano...

Standing Assessment: Likely, it is fair to conclude that the not-so-invisible Black Arts Nation, from HAARP to the Navy, to the Bush/Ashcroft prisons in Iraq/Afghanistan and Cuba, not to mention many other technologies, areas, and programs, are far out of ethical, moral, constitutional, and treaty control, as has been widely feared.

BLACK ARTS NATION

STAY TUNED. We are just on the front edge of “the outing”….

What is truly bazaar about mass opinion at this current time in the U.S. is its near complete inversion. Both Kerry and Bush are seen by a substantial portion of the public, perhaps even a majority of the public, as VERY NEARLY THE OPPOSITE OF WHO THEY REALLY ARE. This greatly benefits Bush, it greatly diminishes Kerry. What is even more bazaar is the strength and persistence of the emotional and mental blinders which are maintaining the illusions which create the inversion. No matter what is presented now on TV, NOTHING SEEMS TO DENT THE ILLUSION.

ECONOMY WATCH

LITTLE CHANGE THIS WEEK

The U.S. economy will grow for at least a few more months. There are still no signs of a general recovery, there have been many growing signs of a recession, and there is clear evidence of a stagflation dynamic setting (rising prices with no growth). But, the fickle finger of fate has intervened and is creating sudden shifts which will drive sudden expansion and huge demand and production increases in certain sectors, specifically those related to construction and war.

FOR THE LAST UPDATED DISCUSSION:

click here for the EC Bulletin Update as of October 27, 2004

With the re-election of George Bush a completely new scenario for the next two years is needed.

We need an AHA experience to see the larger picture.. Perhaps it is this. Perhaps the AHA is that all the contradictions which thousands of analysts have been reporting for the past 20 years mean NOTHING to the Power Elite for they have a solution.

If so, the solution is this: the main driving force of the economy will transition fully into an Imperial economy. It will be based on major militarization of the U.S. to AMP up Empire Building for general export. We may be as in Germany as in approximately 1934. During the 1930’s, while much of the world was mired in a deep depression, Germany, Italy, and Japan under the Fascists (Corporate National Plutocracy) prospered in a wave of tremendous prosperity for their workers. The Fascists terminated all external debt to the international banks and recycled their currencies highly astutely without the need to finance debt. That is why Hitler, Mussolini, and the Japanese Militarists were so fervently supported.

A massive empire building drive to export “Order” over the greater portion of the world’s petroleum reserves will shore up the value of the petro dollar quite nicely and preserve its hegemony well through the “peak oil” period. Huge expenditures on armaments should provide a continuing stimulus of the North American economy, enough to at least keep it gimping along while the Empire is consolidated.

The eventual eclipse of well oil poses no long term problem. Only naïve analysts are worried. Once oil supply is seriously declining and oil prices can be maintained above $80/barrel, some people in the oil industry, including David Rockefeller, understand the means of “growing” your own. They have held the secrets of this for some 23 years.

FOR THE LASTEST DETAILED DISCUSSION

See the Earth Changes Bulletin Update Of July 21, 2004

FOR THE STAND PAT ECONOMIC PREDICTION FOR THIS YEAR,

See the Earth Changes Bulletin Update Of May 12 2004

GENERAL PREDICTION DJI AVERAGES

The bubble is rising steadily. The DJI finished November Day 17 at 10,549.57 up about $165 from last Wednesday at 10,385.48.

AS PREVIOUSLY REPORTED: “Propredictions” has revised their psychic forecasts to correspond more or less with mine. They predict a soft DJI around 10,000 for the remainder of 2004 However, unlike mine to date, they predict a rise to 11,000 during the first quarter of January 2005.

THIS COULD HAPPEN WITH THE PUSHING OF THE SOCIAL SECURITY STOCK SCHEME. EVERYBODY WILL HOLD THEIR CURRENT STOCK POSITIONS HOPING FOR A BRISK UPTURN IN THE MARKET.

WATCH THIS VERY CAREFULLY – SO FAR OIL COULD STILL RISE RATHER THAN FALL – WAR IN THE MIDDLE EAST IS THE PRIMARY FACTOR DRIVING OIL UP IN PRICE AND ACCELERATING THE DECLINE IN THE DOLLAR.

WHAT SHOULD HAPPEN: Eventually oil prices should drop and allow the bubble to inflate some more.

Another factor is the weakening dollar. As the dollar drops AND the stock values remain constant, U.S. stocks will become suddenly cheaper for foreign investors and they may begin to convert to buy U.S. stocks. This also will firm up values when it occurs, but I have no idea where the conversion points are.

So it is all a complex equation which could go sideways at any moment. THE MAIN PROVISO IS AL QAEDA. When they strike in the U.S. again, they will trump all else.

The main weakness in the international economy is that THE BUSH ADMINISTRATION IS SO INCOMPETENT THAT NO INTERNATIONAL ACTOR KNOWS HOW TO BE RATIONAL AND MAKE REAL DECISIONS. EVERYTHING IS HEDGED AND HIDDEN. All news on the war fronts is terrible. Iraq recovery has essentially collapsed. Real war is heating up. The insurgents and terrorists now are just playing hide and seek in Iraq, the more the American Bull rushes them, the less energy it was to remain in the game. Bush’s support is crumbling and he couldn’t do a deal internationally if his life depended upon it.

EURO WATCH

The dollar closed today at 0.7672 down almost another WHOLE CENT from 0.7762 per euro a week ago. We have lost about four cents during the past month. But with the rise in interest rates and the decrease in oil prices, it is clear that the value of the dollar is being stabilized. Don’t expect much drop for the remainder of the year.

“As oil goes up, the dollar will tend also to go down against the Euro.”

OIL IS STABLIZING IN THE CURRENT RANGE OF $48. This will allow the euro/dollar values to remain fairly steady, and perhaps the dollar will firm up a bit. – always contingent of course on Al Qaeda activities.

It also appears that retail energy prices are stabilizing at the current retail prices. But expect a steady if slow creep of prices upward all through 2005, with faster relative increases for some basic commodities and imports to reflect rapidly rising international costs, which will still accelerate in response to the rise in energy costs this past six months.

MUST READ: “The Dollar Panics” in “The Coming Economic Collapse of 2006”, which lays out the dynamics of what is happening

SURVIVAL WATCH

FOOD WATCH

For latest info, see the Earth Changes Bulletin Update as of July 7, 2004

JOB WATCH

Any aspect of the construction and home products industry is hot.

SIGN OF THE TIMES: Ken Lay, who is now widely described as the biggest corporate swindler of all time, is still scott free. (ONE OF THE WORST ECONOMIC TERRORISTS OF ALL TIME). But now finally after waiting for two or so years, Lay has been indicted. Notice the timing, near the end of the first term of the Bush Administration. At this time I will hazard the guess that he will be pardoned by Bush during the final days of his administration, probably December of this year. ANOTHER NEARLY EQUAL SIGN OF THE TIMES: The lawyers who have been settling the Enron collapse for all parties, are billing the remaining net assets of Enron for approximately $1 billion for their services. This is a new heavenly-ordained definition for the term Chutzpah. I CALL IT CLASS ECONOMIC TERRORISM.

POLITICAL WATCH

For general overview on the Tragedy in Iraq and the Bureau-Political Civil War in Washington DC, I highly recommend Tom Dispatch.

For general background: see Earth Changes Bulletin Update As Of July 7 2004

WHAT WILL HAPPEN NEXT IS ANYONE’S GUESS. American politics has never been so unpredictable but maybe it has all been foreseen….even 400 years ago.

Many who would will a great change are depressing in deep pessimism. Despite a year of exposing the grave crimes of the Imperial Faction and the incompetence of their President, a majority of Americans WHO VOTE refuse to believe that conditions have become so corrupt. They insist on drawing their blinders more tightly around their favorite illusions. For a time yet, the truth must remain an orphan in the street.

Yet many people would press many discussions of what appear to be systematic manipulation and corruption of the elections in many places in a variety of ways. Ralph Nader, many of Kerry’s lawyers and agents, and other public interest groups are aggressively seeking to prove many different cases of the Diebold VOTESCAM as well as other forms of election cheating. If they can continue to prove up their case, they will increase the current uncertainties.

BUT THIS PERIOD OF UNCERTAINTY MAY LAST ONLY ANOTHER THREE WEEKS. During the second week of December the electoral college meets to formally cast their votes for President. Those who want to prove that at least some elections were “crooked” have to be able to convince a court before then to block the certification of the elections in their state. Only by court order at this point will anyone be able to prevent fraudulently-elected electors from being seated for the final tabulation.

If they can’t, the uncertainties are over. We can already see at work the aggressive moves of the Imperial Faction to ready the U.S. for the next round of Imperial adventurism. A long, deepening affair with some aspects of Fascist tyranny is more probable than not.

But if they can prove fraud, the uncertainties will mount and may continue for many months. Proven fraud, for example, may be able to block the certification of Ohio’s electors. That might cause Bush to be effectively blocked from re-election - if he could not gain a majority of the electors. But so might Kerry be blocked. Neither might have a majority.

Unless there is a new election conducted in Ohio, and perhaps the courts might require others, the electoral college would have to function as it was originally designed and begin in earnest to attempt as a group to discuss with each other to come up with a majority of electoral votes for one man. The so-called “pledged electors” would have to act as independent electors on second and succeeding votes in their chambers.

And if they did act independently, they might still split right down the middle. Or if they come up with a winner with a clear absolute majority, it is likely the nation’s legal system and the House of Representatives would be at war with each other, all seeking to change the outcome in January by refusing to accept the electoral college, or seeking to overturn it in some New York lawyer way.

This could keep the uncertainty going for several months, a crisis of complete stalemate.

Is such likely? Don’t ask me, but many would prefer such a situation. It is possible, and the fraud involved would entirely justify stalemating the electoral process as a prelude to shaking the shit out to make it right. The U.S. would be better off without a President than continue such massive crony corruption in an atmosphere of universal loss of confidence in the honesty of the vote and the competence of its military expeditions abroad.

Under such conditions, honest men eventually must end up becoming criminals to protect themselves from the incursions of crooked government and crooked lawyers. Far better to have no such government which can function to persecute honest people.

Interestingly enough, a psychic predicted this stalemate some fifteen years ago….a time of complete electoral stalemate which was only resolved with agreement to elect an entirely different person. Nominally based on a Nostradamus quatrain, the psychic reader claimed to talk directly with Nostradamus to receive an authoritative translation and interpretation of many of Nostradamus’s predictions which refer to our time. I have previously shied away from Nostradamus, but this psychic’s work with Nostradamus has some very credible components to it, not least of which is that the conditions and revelations of fact during the past five years were eerily predicted 15 years ago through this person. Some key notes to the predicted stalemate: an embattled President facing “Watergate” type suspicions of subterfuge, an election so blockaded by manipulations, intense ideological stalemate, and lawyers, that the Congress would have to meet to try to resolve the deadlock, ultimately selecting a compromise “third” individual….

…sound familiar to anyone?

Was 2000 just the prolegomena to the coming deadlock?

(I will post much more info about this psychic in a short while).

So, uncertainty for three more weeks, possibly for several more months amidst rapidly deteriorating conditions.

The highest possible outcome – stalemating the Imperial Faction with a Kerry amidst a tragic ending to the horrible blunders in Iraq. Then a progressive downward economic spiral. But maybe Kerry deserves a better fate?

The lowest possible outcome - more probable than not....another four years of political struggle, bitterness, the loss of more political and individual rights, continued declassing and economic deterioration, and a growing general civil upheaval which takes many forms…in the midst of a nation which is virtually ostracized from most of the remainder of the world.

A new media now arrives, floating down the river Iway, and with it comes a new consciousness of the world and the lies which have driven so much of the past 50 years….

From this, the future will arise as the old world slowly collapses.

All else is fluid, in transition. Thank God Almighty!

THE STRATEGIC SITUATION – Final Synopsis
For predictions related to the mess in Palestine, the Middle East, and the Bush political era.

CONDITIONS IN IRAQ AND THE MIDDLE EAST

ARE IN EXTREME CRISIS

The entire world continues to witness the American impasse in Iraq. American policy and management are now clearly on trajectory to a catastrophic loss.

As a consequence, several massive reaction waves have been set in motion. One of the most important reaction waves is among political state policymakers throughout Eurasia. The Eurasian Super-Coalition will form up rapidly this next year and progressively isolate the U.S., Bush, and the Dollar. This consolidation will be largely silent, conversations of understanding among many leaders in many states who wish, entirely reasonably, to isolate themselves from involvement in the international tragedies being engineered in the U.S. This will make the coming economic collapse in the U.S. so much deeper, precipitous, more bitter. What Americans have not yet understood in Kansas is that the world does not NEED America.

Not since the production of technology was outsourced. (You dumb clucks).

Another reaction wave is at a more fundamental human level. The increasing violence in Iraq continues to reveal that American military forces are inadequate to the task of conducting the proper kind of warfare and national pacification. An arrogant “superpower” elite sits in Washington DC and believes in its doctrines of massive, overpowering force, shock and awe tactics, and Proactive Aggression Dominance and are simply oblivious to the increasing feeling of disgust and loathing which is mounting in the world. HUGE NUMBERS OF people worldwide are beginning to realize that the modern face of Americas’ military and internal police forces look more and more like Hitler’s Germany.

Falluja, which the Sorcerers in the Mass Broadcast Media tout as a great victory, provides little sense of confidence. There cannot be said to be a victory when one successfully slaughters all the fish in a barrel with a machine gun. One speaks in terms of butchery, not victory. Scenes from Falluja appear to reveal that the U.S. military still confuses saving a city with destroying it…more and more glimpses of MyLai can be seen as hyped up, drugged up, hair-trigger soldiers shoot at anything that moves…more and more the ceaseless propaganda phrases of surgical strikes, precision targeting, highly disciplined, highly skilled operations can be seen largely for what it is, wishful thinking by incompetent pipe-dreamers in Washington DC which ends up as unmitigated horseshit in operation.

And every soldier past and present knows and understands….sadly some of them are so confused they think they like it.

It most certainly seems fair to conclude that a discredited Army engagement doctrine pounds away at densely settled urban zones with exceptional violence. The results please no one and simply increase the polarization of world dynamic forces into greater opposition. The time is quickly coming when the American military simply is not going to be welcome anywhere at any level in most of the world.

And the answer for all this is at least partly obvious, an extremely self-centered piker too cheap to do real war…using high explosives and extreme fear (instead of skill and people) to pacify and occupy a country without a clue to how real men have successfully conducted pacification operations in peace among many peoples in many places and times.

But the damage seems done, far too deep to contain…unless…an accommodation can be made to progressively isolate and transform the conditions. It is now doubtful with the Sunni, but it could be done with the Kurds and the Shiites…even now at this late date. But it most likely cannot be done with the Imperial Faction who have seized so much control in America. THE MAIN OBSTACLE TO PEACE IN IRAQ AND THE MIDDLE EAST ARE THE AMERICANS AND THEIR STUPID AND INEFFECTUAL INTERFERENCES which are about as successful as Israel’s efforts to make peace. America seems utterly highjacked by Zionist agents but people are still too polite to talk about it.

Speaking of the Imperial Faction and the reaction waves, a third wave is mounting in Washington DC and your news sources are full of items which reveal the movement of the wave. As a result of the apparent Bush “re-election”, coff coff, the Imperial Faction is wasting no time consolidating its control over the rest of American government. The CIA will be slaughtered for its massive leaking of incriminating evidence against Bush and his cohorts and their criminal misrepresentations. Porter Goss is George Herbert Walker Bush’s old Skull and Bones Yale frat buddy from way back in the days when the CIA WAS Skull and Bones…who do you think is now in fact running the CIA once again? People who believe in extreme secrecy in very discrete service to the inner circles of a small aristocracy of entitled people. If you think we are shut out now, you t’aint seen nuttin yet.

A major turnover in the CIA will soon stuff it with Yassha Men. And the same fate is in store for the State Department under the diktat of Condaleeza Rice. The international competence of the U.S., whatever is left, will disintegrate rapidly during the next four years and it will in fact move operationally a long way toward being a corrupt Banana Republic ruled by small circles of corrupt, cynical estate managers.

The next Democratic administration in the U.S. will have an enormous job just to get rid of all the SS stooges who will have been embedded.

Bottom line:

All the King’s Men got mugged by a swindling crook named Chalabi, who sold the New World Order Emperor the equivalent of the Brooklyn Bridge – the mythical Weapons of Mass Destruction.

To claim this prize, the Mass Broadcast Media began beating the war drums and the “Good German” Americans goose-stepped to war. One thousand two hundred and counting Americans died in vain, along with some 100,000 Iraqis, and some 10,000 U.S. soldiers got maimed for life, with unknown numbers of Iraqi’s wandering around mutilated in some fashion. And then there is the DU poisoning. God only knows how many tens of thousands of people are getting poisoned for life by the depleted uranium.

As things stand now, sometime in 2005, Americans will beat a hasty retreat, under the pretext of some contrived imaginary political fig leaf, and we will see the last helicopter evacuation from Iraq...finishing the historical parallel of this Tragedy with the Tragedy of Vietnam.

If so, it will be the beginning of the end of both the American Century and the U.S. Constitution. A generation of upheaval and grievous conflict will ensue before the Americans can repose themselves and their society on a sounder basis.

FOR THE LASTEST SUMMARY BRIEFING ON THE SITUATION AND THE WAY OUT OF IT, GO TO

“A Letter To The Generals: Saving Iraq and Saving The U.S.”

FOR A PDF VERSION, CLICK HERE.

HERE IS THE MAIN HOPE OUT OF THIS STRATEGIC IMPASSE:

AN AUTHENTIC ISLAMIC MORAL AUTHORITY IS ARISING AND IS BEGINNING TO FORGE A COALITION TO UNIFY IRAQ AND BRING CIRCUMSTANCES TO THE POINT WHERE THE AMERICANS CAN BE ASKED TO LEAVE. QUICKLY.

THE ARRANGEMENTS WILL BE FORGED BY JANUARY. MORE PROBABLE THAN NOT, THE MULLAHS WILL ARRANGE THE ELECTION OF A GOVERNMENT WHICH ASSERTS ITS SOVEREIGNTY AND ASKS THE U.S. TO LEAVE VIRTUALLY IMMEDIATELY.

PASS THE WORD: THIS IS HOW IT WILL END IN IRAQ,

Michael Wells Mandeville,
The Hills of Arizona USA at mwman@earthlink.net
Master Website Index is at: http://www.michaelmandeville.com

Author of several books, including: "Return of the Phoenix" at
http://www.michaelmandeville.com/phoenix/phoenix.htm
and "The Coming Economic Collapse of 2006" at
http://www.michaelmandeville.com/calendar/collapse2006.htm
_________________________________________________
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