Earth Changes Bulletin Update

You have heard of the Weather Report? Here exclusively is this week’s "Earth Report" - a short review of the “big picture” about how the dynamic changes in the Sun and the Earth are effecting our lives more and more intensely, with the latest prognostications and predictions for weathermen, farmers, investors, businessmen, and every man.

You may click here for the full text of the Earth Changes Bulletin Update for this week, or use this URL

http://www.michaelmandeville.com/earthmonitor/ecbulletins/2004/ecb_May_19_04.htm

On the geophysical front, solar activity has taken a greatly surprising turn with a major spike of sunspots up to 148 for the Mercury | Neptune alignment. Though the number plunged on May 18 to 90 or so, they may rise suddenly again for the Mercury | Uranus alignment on May 28. They definitely will rise at the end of the month for the Venus | Earth alignment on June 8, when the Earth will be directly connected to the magnetic field of Venus, forming one of most powerful circuits of ionic flow in the solar system. All this solar activity negates earlier predictions and will energize the Earth’s atmosphere to make a normal Spring and early Summer nearly impossible. Chaos in weather, rain, storms, tornadoes, and human emotions and affairs will rule the next 45 days. But so far this New Moon Syzygy has produced very little in the way of Earthquakes, though a 6.2 quake struck in Taiwan today and five shape-shifting quakes struck in the Great Rift of the ocean bottoms during the past seven days. Even so, volcanic activity is waning and most likely tectonic activity will not be a significant factor for the next 120 days.

On the geopolitical front, the strange year continues to unfold in ever more unbelievable and unpredictable patterns. The Imperial Faction continues to take more hits over the prisoner abuse scandals and its pretensions and machinations are now about as stripped naked as the Iraqi prisoners. That they are some of the biggest prevaricators in human history is perfectly clear to the greater portion of humanity. There is such heavy loss of confidence in these people it is hard to pretend that they can remain in power, but somehow they manage. At the moment, though Isolated and alone, there may be a glimmer of hope for avoiding a deepening of the tragedy in the Middle East and so the challenge is on to find it. But Israeli bombs and American military operations, which deliver too much force too quickly (without the self-proclaimed precision) to produce too many brutal side affects, is apparent to all and this is not making a march to peace readily apparent. At the moment, conditions are in stalemate and any outcome, good or ill, is within the possible. Once again the economic bubble took heavy hits. Inflation of basic commodities, and food, loss of the value of the dollar, surging oil prices, continued sounds of the Giant Sucking Sound, surging Chinese demand for oil, all made it clear that the economy is not going to anywhere decent ANYTIME SOON. And so turns the world.

Program Thesis: What are we trying to do with the Earth Changes Bulletin?

Most news media do not handle technical and scientific subjects like geology and earth sciences very well. They don't understand the causes and effects of activities in the Sun and Earth. Accordingly, they often do not understand if, when, how, why to report earthquakes, volcanic activity, global warming effects The treatment often sounds absent-minded, poorly qualified, and frequently contains various technical errors. Seldom is the treatment entertaining and genuinely educational.

Based on new scientific principles which have emerged during the past thirty years, many of the dynamic activities of the Sun and Earth can be linked together to see how a range of effects are linked together. This makes it possible to paint "the big picture" into a perspective which explains many diverse events and processes, especially climate and weather patterns such as global warming and El Nino. From the "big picture", long range predictions can be made for weeks and even months ahead. The result is sophisticated cutting-edge information which is objective, balanced, astute, relevant, and can be easily seen and appreciated by lay audiences. The perspective is generally global, seldom parochial. For the framework of concepts, terms, and current conditions which are used or described in the these Bulletins, see the Earth Changes 2003 Almanac Calendar.

To see the internet resources which are used to prepare this Update, take a look at the Earth Monitor front page

http://www.michaelmandeville.com/earthmontor/

SPONSORING:

THE COMING ECONOMIC COLLAPSE OF 2006, which puts today, tomorrow, and the trends together into the Cayce 25 year economic cycle which will “bottom” in 2006/2007. Download from

http://www.michaelmandeville.com/collapse2006

THIS BOOK STILL COOKS AND IT WILL COOK THE POLITICIANS AND THE ECONOMY ALL THE WAY THROUGH TO 2008: This synthesis is far ahead of the daily digests in all halls of the internet media: so far (since may 2003) the track record on this set of predictions for 2003-2008 is running 100 per cent. If you have not purchased this book, you will remain ignorant of the main dynamics which are rapidly changing everything.

LATEST UPDATE NOTE AS OF MAY 12, 2004: As discussed this week and herein, the Collapse 2006 schedule, MORE LIKELY THAN NOT, IS CURRENTLY ACCELERATING AS A RESULT OF WORLDWIDE LOSS OF CONFIDENCE IN THE ELEMENTARY COMPETENCE OF THE UNITED STATES GOVERNMENT AT THE HIGHEST LEVELS.

HOUSEKEEPING:

MANDEVILLE IS ON THE RADIO EVERY WEDNESDAY WITH

Alex Merklinger (Millennium Radio) show at 6 PM Arizona Time (also 6 PM Pacific Daylight Saving Time). Regular Weekly Update For The Earth Changes Bulletin. To find Iway archives and stations, see http://www.millenniumradionetwork.com/

FOR FIRST WEEK IN JUNE: FRIDAY, JUNE 4

Mandeville is rescheduling an interview on the

THE LOU GENTILE PARANORMAL RADIO NETWORK

10 PM to Midnight EASTERN

9 PM to 11 PM CENTRAL

8 PM to 10 PM MOUNTAIN Time.

7 PM to 9 PM PACIFIC

http://www.lougentile.com or IBC Radio Network at http://www.ibcradio.com/

MY EMAIL BOX: Is fixed. But, please use the new email addresses I provided in yesterday’s message which I cannot use on web pages in order to prevent spoof attacks.

SPIRITUAL WATCH

How to converge and express the spirit of mass transformation into manifestation, HOW to be, IS the question. How to do is the praxis of the time. Examining this question, probing it, is the chief trendline of this year.

As is now plain to see, the “Great Purification” has clearly commenced, pretty much right on the schedule suggested by the Q’ero, the Maya, and the Hopi.

As I began in my conversation last week and continue herein, it is TIME to give recognition to this simple truth and to begin to bring it forth into the mind of humans. The age of prophecy is at its end, the Phoenix is on the tarmac waiting only its final cues from the cosmic forces, and the final struggles of humanity now surge all around us.

All quite within the timing of all the prophetic traditions.

With the destruction of the Twin Towers in New York, which coincidentally(?) is also a potent symbol in the Tarot of a catastrophic overturning in the existing state of affairs, the era of the “Great Purification” has brought the world into deep polarization, tension, and profound revelation on the real nature of the human world.

Not exactly a pretty picture, this newly emerging vision. The latest round of viewing the nakedness of Bush, Cheny, Powell, Rumsfeld, the Army, the Generals, and the Soldiers in Iraq, as they conduct what they call war and much of the rest of the world calls Imperial Dominion with the usual soufflé of nuts, abuses, torture, crony corruption, colonial presumption and arrogance, and staggering war profiteering, has reduced at least half of North America into embittered witnesses of one of the most colossal “overturnings” of human hopes, dreams, efforts, and lifetime work under belief of a better world to come.

It looks gone forever….spent by wastrels at a carnie show of freaks and rigged games.

One of the big ironies of all of this, perhaps given emphasis by Central Casting’s sense of humor, is that one half of America is living out the attitudes and mentality of King George’s 18^th Century England, while the other half is living out life as seen from the boondocks of pre-revolutionary war America whist they watch the “indianization” of the Arabs in the name of civilization and King George’s Empire.

Many are still in denial…and thus give the illusion that things will continue as they are….but the bitter polarization, which will increase even more than at the moment, is unavoidable and is the source of the “energy” which will mobilize mass shifts, truly mass shifts, in consciousness and activity.

Many have had many of these thoughts during the past two and a half years, but it is good now to draw back a little and see the larger dimensions of the dynamics which have caught us up in a worldwide struggle.

It is good to recognize that there is and always has been a source and a connection to spiritual consciousness and wisdom which has seen throught the miserating maya of a endless and utterly useless parade of pretender nobles and pretender kings and pretender plutarchs in their pretend world of material vanity and worthless achievements of conquests and victories in competition.

Clearly those who carry forth the ancient oral spiritual traditions of this hemisphere were (then) and still are (now) more connected to the real realities than the crazy white men who have looted the planet on their ego-drunken orgy of power-seeking.

They see the polarization and see it now as the cleansing “squeeze” which will push the pollutions of thought and deed out from the world.

Some spiritual apprentices would seek to defuse the current wave of polarization by denying it or ignoring it. Though the motive to substitute love for hate is admirable and always desirable, it is better in this moment to recognize the absurdity of our conditions and the deep hostility which it engenders. Successful “anger management” begins by recognizing the anger, not denying. Once recognized, and even expressed in communicative ways, the anger can be released and healed.

An enormous number of people need to be assisted in expressing their anger. The entire conflict in Palestine is exactly THIS issue. The West and Israel have sought for 50 years to “deny” Palestinian anger in countless ways. It has not worked. It will not work. And you cannot blow it up or “indianize it” as Sharon seeks to do. The anger must be understood and healing brought in on its terms, not the terms and conditions of outsiders.

It is good, then, and high time (tide) for us to push away from the banks of the river and continue our journey into the unknown dealing honestly and with trustworthyness with those whom are honest and trustworthy. By letting go of the bank, consider well that the old saws of American greatness and power are little better than ”the walking dead”. Within the old framework of country, constitution, and political party, we find only those who would jerk our chains back into slavery to hoary old legends which were never true. There is nothing there to save.

Let them go, realize that an entirely new human condition with new institutions must be found “down the river” aways.

A major part of the new human condition is in your heart and soul. Put some major focus here to let go the river banks of the cranky world. It works wonders and here is the positive side of the sunspots. They help the ardent quester.

The latest peak of 148 in the sunspot count two days ago sent meditative spiritual energies all the way to Arcturus. Wispy sensitivities on etheric levels became crispy and full-bodied, the difference between a light zinfandel and a rich, full-bodied 100 year very rare dark red wine.

Meditation with energies from the Neptune, Uranus, and Mercury planetary alignments has brought greater revelation and more inner freedom to those who work with these energies at all levels. Suddenly, chakras have begun to stay in an expanded state of energization for many hours on end, extending the normal result of meditation from an hour or two to all day and night.

Those who work with these energies will be greatly benefited, perhaps even more so, during the coming alignment of Venus with Earth. The peak for this energy should hit a few days after the time of the next Update, next Wednesday on May 26.

This upcoming alignment is definitely the time to consider special personal alignment and celebration with the spiritual realities. Here is one idea: take your normal meditation practices and do something special to orient with the Earth Medicine Wheel alignments which North American shamans are trying to re-energize. Just avoid getting hung up on space and time. It is inner connection to the All Pervading All In All which is “the deal”. Time and space are irrelevant. But the Earth Medicine Wheel concept provides a “concept” of connection and unity with the world and Divinity which is beautifully outside the crazy worlds of crazy white man and crazy semitic religious warfare and heavy hands of doctrinal absolutism. The Buddhist and Hindu traditions have lovely variations of the Earth Medicine Wheel, so those within those lineages can easily join in with some understanding of the ideas.

The Earth Medicine Wheel has no baggage, only great opportunity for discovery of the interconnection of all things. It is also a great place to hang one’s “hat” during the Great Purification which is now underway at all levels It is a way of stepping out of the failed world and into a survivor world of basic truths.

God, or the Great Spirit, that is to say, the appeal to consciousness of higher purpose and meaning, is inevitable. That is the only ground there is on which we can come together and make our stand. This is the fundamental equation. The secular equations of professorial econometrix and bureaucratic absolution lead nowhere.

AS OBSERVED LAST WEEK: Before it is done, this “Great Purification”, the liberating truths of revelation of what has been hidden will roll out during the next 48 months and dissolve away the last Empire. For God’s sake, realize that appeals to hold onto the Empire for order, power, civilization, security, and prosperity are all misleading ploys by vain sychophants, the maya which holds so many in this absurd world of polluted poverty and manipulation by plutarchs. Pray and hope that it may be dissolved relatively peacefully. It is within the heart of the Americans to let it go, if the berserk side of their militaristic, ideological (fascist leaning) leadership can be neutralized enough.

It is time to link the spiritual communities of the Earth. The Whole Earth. IT HAS BECOME URGENT TO LINK THE SPIRITUAL COMMUNITIES WITHIN A BROAD MOVEMENT WHICH PROVIDES NEW CURRENTS OF LEADERSHIP.

Only exceptional effort and intense heart action which liberates absolute honesty in the West can overcome and heal the immense damage which ALL parties to the violence in the world have created with their emotionally-driven reactions and messianic pretensions, whether the flavor is Muslim, Jewish, or Christian (Zoroastrian Evangelism).

NON VIOLENCE IS THE PARMOUNT WAY. NON COOPERATION WITH THE CORRUPTION IS THE PRAXIS.

POLAR MOTION

What is happening to the motion of the Earth. For the overall summary of the status of polar motion GO TO:

http://michaelmandeville.com/earthmonitor/ecbulletins
/statusreports.htm#polarmotion

(watch the word wrap on the URL)

To see the current graph of polar motion, see

http://www.michaelmandeville.com/earthmonitor/topten_monitor.htm

Scroll down the page until you get to the black and white graphs with show the x and y coordinates of the North Spin Axis on two separate graphs.

The spin axis appears to be more or less normal. This is the least of our problems.

AS PREVIOUSLY REPORTED: Steady as she goes. A slow acceleration in the shifting of the poles has been underway for perhaps the past 100 years and the last three decades has shown an increase in the rate of acceleration. This has appeared to accelerate even more during the past decade.

MAGNETIC POLES – SHIFTING

What is happening to the magnetic fields of the Earth. For the overall summary of the status of the changes in the magnetic field GO TO:

http://michaelmandeville.com/earthmonitor/ecbulletins/statusreports.htm#earthfield

(watch the word wrap on the URL)

No real change during the past year: a magnetic pole shift is not something to be very concerned about within this decade at least.

PLANETS & ALIGNMENTS
(all time coordinates here and elsewhere are in UTC unless otherwise noted)

For background and the current information on planetary alignments GO TO:

http://michaelmandeville.com/earthmonitor/ecbulletins/statusreports.htm#planets

(watch the word wrap on the URL)

See Earth Changes 2003 Almanac Calendar for additional details

http://www.michaelmandeville.com/ebooks/calendar2003/

The Almanac lays out the planets and the lunar phases for entire year in advance to allow you to find the best and worst periods of weather, earthquake activity, ethereal “lunar” influences, etc.

We have two upcoming planetary alignments in May. These involve Mercury aligning with the most distant “real” planets of Neptune and Uranus:

May 22: Mercury | Neptune

May 28: Mercury | Uranus

I advised you that both of which should be weak in their influence on producing sunspots.

HOOBOY WAS I WRONG. We had a strong peak of 148 sunspots on May 16 and 17.

Was that just for Neptune? If so, the wave for Uranus should be even larger and we should begin to see that wave form up within the next couple of days.

The next alignment after Uranus is on June 7. Venus catches up with the Earth and aligns with it just two weeks before the Summer solstice. This alignment should begin to be felt as increased solar activity during about the last week of May and the sunspot peak for it should be broad and early, perhaps as much as 10 days early.

The Moon this day is North of the Equator (its North Node) 0 days past the New Moon approximately 404,700 KM from the Earth. It is 0% of the last Full Moon (visibility). The Moon is now waxing to the next Full Moon of June 3 at 04:30 UTC. The next New Moon is June 17 2004 at 20:38 UTC.

The next Lunar Apogee is May 21, 12:03 UTC, at 406261 KM from the Earth. Perigee is close on two weeks later. (Perigee = the Moon’s closest approach to the Earth during its monthly orbit which increases gravitational influence of the Moon by as much as 15%; Apogee = the Moon’s greatest distance from the Earth during its monthly orbit). (Berkland has a more complex formula for syzygy and his dates are often different.) For details see http://www.syzygyjob.com/

PLANET WATCHING

For background and the current information on observable planets and planetary alignments GO TO:

http://michaelmandeville.com/earthmonitor/ecbulletins/statusreports.htm#planets

(watch the word wrap on the URL)

Venus is now loosing brightness as it slims down into a disappearing crescent whilst approaching a station precisely between the Sun and the Earth for its transit alignment of June 8 2004. It can still be seen in small amateur telescopes as a thin silvery crescent about your time window is disappearing nightly.

SUNSPOTS

The events in the solar atmosphere which impact weather and climate patterns, the magnetic field and auroras, including forecasts for the week, month, and year ahead. For background information, go to:

http://michaelmandeville.com/earthmonitor/ecbulletins/statusreports.htm#sunspots

(watch the word wrap on the URL)

To follow the numbers below, view the Solar Cycle 23 Chart at

http://www.michaelmandeville.com/earthmonitor/topten_monitor.htm

Or, get the data in a table from

http://www.sec.noaa.gov/ftpdir/latest/DSD.txt

HOLY COW, MY NUMBERS PREDICTIONS WERE TOASTED AND BLOWN OUT OF THE SOLAR SYSTEM BY A HUGE SUNSPOT SPIKE OF

148 on May 16 and 17 2004.

The sunspot count kept rising from about 47 as of May 11 all the way up to 148 where it hovered for two days and then began to sink again to 90 or so on May 18 and probably down even more for today.

This peak may have been induced by the combination of Mercury's alignments with Neptune and Uranus between May 22 and May 28.

Or not. Maybe Uranus’s peak will be forming up separately during the next few days.

The overall Solar Flux (which is a measurement of the magnetic strength of the "solar wind" remains high at 108, even though headed down. In other words, the general solar output of Solar Cycle 23 Peak is still, on the average, quite high.

This is the crux of what is happening with the long, high output of Solar Cycle 23 and the huge spikes of solar activity which on the average are probably inducing some of the global warming phenomenon. Why? THAT is the question.

Is the Sun's overall output on an upward trend or we are just now seeing it more noticeably? Or is this Solar Cycle 23 merely somewhat unique? There is a lot to be said for each of these questions and the answers are many. I frankly cannot sort it out, mainly because I am uncomfortable with the very limited depth of the time series we have on the outputs of the sun. We need a few thousand years to really answer serious questions like these above. But all we have is around 10 years of data of multidimensional data and only a few decades of "thin" slices of data. The sunspot counts of the last 300 years are not nearly enough of a data profile of solar output in and of themselves to allow us deal with climate and weather issues.

Damn tough row to hoe in the field of science. Most likely something as complex as the solar system requires a lot more data sorting than we are capable of doing.

The irritating part of all this is that there is nothing we can do to fix it except deal with whatever comes along and record what happens faithfully for a few decades, at minimum, more probably for a few hundred years.

Not even that is enough to but scratch the surface. This is one big reason why all science and discussion about what is happening on the Earth in terms of global warming should be kept on a humble basis. Fixed, "cause" oriented approaches about the causes of global warming are not useful.

For the next week, is the sunspot count going up or down?

Good question. Got any answers? My prediction today, a fairly safe one based solely on the sinking Solar Flux, is that the count will go down for at least another day, maybe two. Then it is anybody’s guess.

DART BOARD FAILED PREDICTION FOR MAY 2004

(print and cut this prediction for mounting on the wall, then chuck pencils or spitwads or whatever suits your mood at it.

“We should now have the lowest levels of solar influence on our bodies, minds, and souls since the beginning of Solar Cycle 23 Peak during the last half of 1999.”

SOLAR ACTIVITY

As reported by NASA/NOAA unless otherwise stated

The Solar Wind was mild at 379.7 km/s this hour (about 10:00 UTC) and it was pushing a weak density of 0.8 protons/cm3”.

The Fluxgate Chart at the University of Alaska (which measures magnetic disturbances in the Earth’s atmosphere created by solar winds and ion storms) recorded mostly a flat line for most of the past 48 hours but a modest disturbance several hours ago provide a small indication that the monitor was still working.

(as of this time, about 2 PM Mountain time US). To see the Fluxgate moment to moment, go to http://137.229.36.30/cgi-bin/magnetometer/plotstations.cgi?

(watch the word wrap on the URL)

NASA PREDICTS: “Solar wind gusts from the indicated coronal hole could buffet Earth magnetic field between May 20th and 24th.”

Nothing much for Auroras or solar storms for today. Solar Flares:

Probabilities for a medium-sized (M-class) solar flare during the next 24/48 hours: about 30%, perhaps 5 to 30% probability for geomagnetic disturbances during the next 24/48 hours.

Jan Alvestad reports: “The geomagnetic field was quiet on May 18. Solar wind speed ranged between 284 and 343 km/sec. At midnight there were 6 spotted regions on the visible disk. The solar flare activity level was low. A total of 3 C class events was recorded during the day…May 16-18: No fully or partly Earth directed CME observed….A small, recurrent coronal hole (CH96) in the southern hemisphere was in a geoeffective position on May 17. A recurrent, poorly defined coronal hole (CH97) in the northern hemisphere will be in a geoeffective position on May 19-20.”

Jan Alvestad predicts: “The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled on May 19 and 21. Quiet to active is likely on May 20 due to effects from a weak coronal hole stream. Another weak coronal hole flow could arrive on May 22 and cause some unsettled to active intervals that and the next day.” Alvestad also predicts for the next 24 hours, 60-100% probability of coronal holes, 0% probability of CME's, 0% probability of M and X Class Flares

MONTHLY AVERAGES IN SOLAR CYCLE 23: (These numbers are reported by Jan Alvestad) Over all, the sunspot average count (ISSN) for February 2003 was 46.4 and for March it rose to 61.5. The number for April 2003 was 60, June saw 77.4. After falling to an average under 50 in September 2003, a huge surge in sunspot activity drove the November 2003 average number to 67.2. December demonstrated a definite downturn: 47.0 average sunspot count. This downward trend was confirmed with the ISSN monthly average at 37.2 for January 2004. BUT, February’s average count rose once again, along with the amount of record breaking February weather, to 46.0. March 2004 was even higher with the ISSN average count at 48.9 April’s count was radically lower at 39.3.

WORLD WEATHER SUMMARY

Those who have been following the patterns have seen that the correlations between sunspot peaks and major storm fronts coming in off the oceans to track across the continents is roughly pretty good, sometimes very much exactly on the mark. Accordingly, our “sloppycasts” (approximate continental weather patterns) this past few years have proven out to be fairly worthwhile.

So far since May began, a good part of my solar activity and weather predictions here have been wrong.

Rather than small numbers for solar activity and mild weather on Earth, it is apparent that we will now see that A LOT OF FREAK EXTREMES IN THE WEATHER WILL BLOW IN DURING THE NEXT TWO WEEKS.

And then the Venus | Earth alignment will keep the ball bouncing during the first half of June right up and through the Summer Solstice. The alignment of Venus | Earth on June 6-8 should make for a wet early Summer. This weather disturbance may get pretty intense.

Plan accordingly for practically anything.

SORRY, BUT IT SHOULD BE GREAT FOR TORNADOS, AND MAYBE AN EARLY NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH TROPICAL STORM OR TWO DURING JUNE.

EARTH WEATHER PREDICTION FOR THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS:

(Northern Hemisphere) This “sloppycast” is based on sunspot counts, planetary alignments, and visual data shown on satellite and radar.

For this next week, chaos and unpredictable patterns will rule. The Jet Stream over North America is sliding around with sharp dips like a drunken sailor.

Nothing indicates a normalization in the pattern now for the next seven days. Radar maps show lots of action over North America with enough wet marine air coming in off the coasts to drive a lot of storm fronts.

EARTH WEATHER PREDICTION FOR SPRING SEASON:

(Northern Hemisphere) This “sloppycast” is based on sunspot counts, planetary alignments, and visual data shown on satellite and radar.

June 7 or so will see another major storm front roll in to greet the official opening of Summer on June 21.

SOUTHWEST CONDITIONS:

for background or more details see

http://michaelmandeville.com/earthmonitor/ecbulletins/statusreports.htm/#weather

(watch the word wrap on the URL)

Best bloom of cactus in four years. The nights remain quite cool but the days are now warm. This will probably remain for about a month and then begin the all too typical hot summer. Weather will now normalize into close alignment with statistical averages.

EL NINO & LA NINA WATCH
watch is now open again; Pacific water activity appears mostly normal, we are between the extremes of the ENSO; but all Auguries point to next year for the next onset.

A fairly large cool patch of ocean water has set up and consolidated along the Pacific Equator from the coast of Peru out some 35 degrees of Longitude. It is about half the size as last year’s cool patch at this time of the year. It has increased in size and temperature deviation up through to May 2, the latest date which is posted. It would seem that no Nino or Nina is indicated as of the moment, but this sudden cooling of the Equatorial belt bears watching carefully. It could build towards a surprise La Nina, but that is not very probable.

ADDITIONAL NOTE: The year 2004 and/or 2005, in accordance with the 100 year X Wave Graph of the motion of the spin axis in Chandler’s Wobble, COULD BE EL NINO YEARS. Graphs of various El Nino periods seem to show that the beginning of temperature build-up can occur as late as April of an El Nino year. So 2005 may not be callable until early Spring 2005.

GLOBAL WARMING IS A BEEG, FAT, DISTURBING REALITY

ARCTIC TEMPERATURES WARMING RAPIDLY: POLAR EXPLORER

Posted By: GlobalExodus <Send E-Mail>

Date: Wednesday, 19 May 2004, 6:48 a.m.

ABC NEWS Online (May 19, 2004)

Summer temperatures in the Arctic have risen at an incredible rate over the past three years and large patches of what should be ice are now open water, a British polar explorer said.

Ben Saunders, forced by the warm weather to abandon an attempt to ski solo from northern Russia across the North Pole to Canada, said he had been amazed at how much of the ice had melted.

"It's obvious to me that things are changing a lot and changing very quickly," a sunburnt Saunders told Reuters less than two days after being rescued from the thinning ice sheet close to the North Pole.

"I do know it's happening because that was my third time in the Arctic (in the last three years)," said Saunders, who explored the region in 2001 and 2003.

An international study last year said global warming would melt most of the Arctic icecap in summertime by the end of the century.

Many scientists blame the rising temperatures on human emissions of greenhouse gases while others point to what they say are longer-term natural warming and cooling cycles.

"The temperatures were incredibly warm ... I had days when I could ski with no gloves and no hat at all, just in bare hands, because I was too hot," said Saunders.

Logs from an expedition in 2001 showed the average Arctic temperature at this time of year was minus 15 to minus 20 degrees Celsius.

Saunders said the average temperature this time was just minus 5 to minus 7 degrees Celsius.

"I saw open water every single day of the expedition, which is not what I was expecting," said Saunders, who had to don a special thermal suit and drag his sled across open patches of water nine times during the 71 days he spent alone.

He covered a total of 965 km before giving up.

"I think a ski crossing from land to land (Russia to Canada) if conditions stay the same -- let alone get any worse -- is impossible," he said.

Saunders had planned to set off from Russia's northernmost Arctic islands in March but instead of ice, he discovered a 70 km open stretch of water. He had to be flown to the closest pack ice.

"The ice was terrible, right from the word go; very smashed up, very few flat areas," he said, adding that the usually impermeable multiyear ice was thinning.

"(It) is becoming less stable and it's breaking up more easily. There are enormous pressure ridges, and enormous areas of what I'd describe as rubble."

Saunders said he had also been struck by the almost complete absence of polar bears on the Russian side.</