PHOENIX FIVE EARTH CHANGES BULLETIN
Monitoring The Changes In The Earth

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edited by Michael Wells Mandeville  copyright May 12 2004


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Earth Changes Bulletin Update As Of May 12 2004

You have heard of the Weather Report?  Here exclusively is this week’s  "Earth Report" - a short review of the “big picture” about how the dynamic changes in the Sun and the Earth are effecting our lives more and more intensely, with the latest prognostications and predictions for weathermen, farmers, investors, businessmen, and every man.

 

With this week’s update, we begin a shift in the style, methods, and organization of the Earth Changes Bulletin.  Stay tuned…many more changes will come rapidly.

 

On the geophysical front, solar activity continues to be mild and most other factors are benign.  The Sunspot Count dropped to 30 on May 5, rose again mysteriously to 57 on May 9, and dipped again to 47 on May 11.  This small peak may be an early “rise” for the Mercury | Neptune alignment on May 22.  The falling drop in the Solar Flux Index which was underway once again yesterday signals that the sunspot count will continue dropping during the next few days.  The atmosphere is still settling down, more slowly than expected and a mild Spring is gradually emerging but not as quickly as predicted. Volcanic activity is up slightly more this week and worldwide seismic activity is about the same as the previous week despite the Full Moon Syzygy we have just passed through.  Only two quakes struck in the Great Rift in the Mid Atlantic and along the Antarctic Tectonic Plate, thus perhaps signaling another decline in the Earth’s shape shifting.  Overall, all cosmic factors are lulling and this lull may extend through most of the year, with only the alignments of Venus and Mercury during succeeding months to disturb the Earth.

 
On the geopolitical front, the strange year continues to unfold in ever more unbelievable and unpredictable patterns.  AND ENOUGH WITH OGA euphemisms.  SPELL “OTHER GOVERNMENT AGENCIES” AS CIA CIA CIA CIA CIA CIA CIA.

Who would have predicted the shock of horror and/or shame and massive loss of confidence which has settled over a goodly (Godly) portion of the world as deepsocketed machinations of the Century 21 Defense Intelligence and CIA spook factories begin to be revealed to the world. Yet even as Rumsfeld's Pentagon house of cards begins to collapse, the Army’s star may be rising. Army commands have begun now to negotiate directly with the Iraqi’s to keep the peace despite the pressure of the Pentagon to use too much force with too few men.  An Army General, Taguba, clearly blew the whistle and pointed to the spook factories which Rumsfeld, Wolfowitz (you gotta love that name) and Richard “Prince of Darkness Grima Warmtongue” Perle established secretly,   With these new spook factories for info and psyop wars, they infected the U.S. Military and induced it to use illegal methods to subject prisoners of the “War On Terror” with the maximum conceivable abuse without leaving a physical trail. As the world began to perceive this internal “Evil Empire”, America and Americans have become so “radioactive” there is no chance of anyone partnering with America, which leaves the faux-centrist Demopublicans under Kerry about no place to go and nothing to do.  Once again the economic bubble took heavy hits and reeled against the ropes, making it clearer than ever that the economy is going NOWHERE ANYTIME SOON.  BUT with the virtual collapse of all leadership in Washington DC, the U.S. Army Command is suddenly emerging as a real player offering real leadership to out the spooks and the incompetency of the Imperial Faction. It now may be possible for the Army command and the U.N. to cobble together an actual transfer of sovereignty to a new Iraqi government and keep enough of a lid on to enable a gradual transfer of the U.S. presence OUT OF IRAQ.

 

It is obvious that Bush is an international pariah and no powerful statesman in the world will directly assist him.  But it may be possible for the U.N. Secretary General to work directly with the Army Command and the new government of Iraq to bring in additional support into Iraq to displace greater and great portions of the American military regime.

 

AM I SUGGESTING THAT THE U.S. ARMY SHOULD SIDELINE THE BOZO’S IN WASHINGTON D.C. BY IGNORING THE CIRCUS AND DOING WHAT MAKES SENSE?  YES. CONFIDENCE IN WASHINGTON D.C. IS LOWER THAN IT HAS EVER BEEN SINCE THE 1920’S.  DO WHAT MAKES SENSE AGAINST THE HIGHEST STANDARDS OF TRUTH.

 

WHAT THE WORLD WANTS TO SEE IS ALL THE PIX AND THEY WANT TO HEAR EVERYTHING WHICH CORPORAL ENGLISH HAS TO SAY.  GIVE IT TO THE WORLD, THE PATH TO PEACE AND RESOLUTION IN IRAQ IS DOWN THAT TRUTH.

 

And so turns the world.  At the moment, for a second week in a row, a retreat from increased violence seems possible. Though Isolated and alone, there may be a glimmer of hope for avoiding a deepening of the war and so the challenge is on.  

 

 

Program Thesis: What are we trying to do with the Earth Changes Bulletin?

Most news media do not handle technical and scientific subjects like geology and earth sciences very well.  They don't understand the causes and effects of activities in the Sun and Earth.  Accordingly, they often do not understand if, when, how, why to report earthquakes, volcanic activity, global warming effects  The treatment often sounds absent-minded, poorly qualified, and frequently contains various technical errors.  Seldom is the treatment entertaining and genuinely educational.

Based on new scientific principles which have emerged during the past thirty years, many of the dynamic activities of the Sun and Earth can be linked together to see how a range of effects are linked together.  This makes it possible to paint "the big picture" into a perspective which explains many diverse events and processes, especially climate and weather patterns such as global warming and El Nino. From the "big picture", long range predictions can be made for weeks and even months ahead.  The result is sophisticated cutting-edge information which is objective, balanced, astute, relevant, and can be easily seen and appreciated by lay audiences.  The perspective is generally global, seldom parochial. For the framework of concepts, terms, and current conditions which are used or described in the these Bulletins, see the Earth Changes 2003 Almanac Calendar.

 

To see the internet resources which are used to prepare this Update, take a look at the Earth Monitor front page

http://www.michaelmandeville.com/earthmontor/

 

 

SPONSORING:

THE COMING ECONOMIC COLLAPSE OF 2006, which puts today, tomorrow, and the trends together into the Cayce 25 year economic cycle which will “bottom” in 2006/2007.  Download from

http://www.michaelmandeville.com/calendar/collapse2006

 

 

THIS BOOK STILL COOKS AND IT WILL COOK THE POLITICIANS AND THE ECONOMY ALL THE WAY THROUGH TO 2008:  This synthesis is far ahead of the daily digests in all halls of the internet media: so far (since may 2003) the track record on this set of predictions for 2003-2008 is running 100 per cent.  If you have not purchased this book, you will remain ignorant of the main dynamics which are rapidly changing everything. 

 

LATEST UPDATE NOTE AS OF MAY 12, 2004: 

 

As discussed this week and herein,

 

the Collapse 2006 schedule,

 

MORE LIKELY THAN NOT,

 

IS CURRENTLY ACCELERATING AS A RESULT OF WORLDWIDE LOSS OF CONFIDENCE IN THE ELEMENTARY COMPETENCE OF THE UNITED STATES GOVERNMENT AT THE HIGHEST LEVELS.

 

 

 

HOUSEKEEPING:

 

This version of the Update is one step along the way in converting the Earth Changes Bulletin and the Phoenix Quest sites.  This intensive graphics approach will be used to eliminate any confusion with spam and worms and virus.  Most of the Bulletins will be accessible only through the web.

 

I will continue to send out a summary to the email subscriber list, but the body will be in html format only on a webpage which you read through your browser.  In effect, the Bulletins will become a web “blog”.

 

 

MANDEVILLE IS ON THE RADIO EVERY WEDNESDAY WITH

Alex Merklinger (Millennium Radio) show at 6 PM Arizona Time (also 6 PM Pacific Daylight Saving Time).   Regular Weekly Update For The Earth Changes Bulletin.  To find Iway archives and stations, see http://www.millenniumradionetwork.com/

 

FOR FIRST WEEK IN JUNE:

Mandeville is rescheduling an interview on the

THE LOU GENTILE PARANORMAL RADIO NETWORK

10 PM to Midnight EASTERN

9 PM to 11 PM CENTRAL

8 PM to 10 PM MOUNTAIN Time.

7 PM to 9 PM PACIFIC

http://www.lougentile.com or IBC Radio Network at http://www.ibcradio.com/

 

Date will be announced separately

 

EMAIL CORRESPONDENCE BACKLOG:

 

Slowly progress is being made.   My main focus right now is to shift the formatting and organization of the Bulletins and Phoenix Quest lists to eliminate all threats of spam and worms and virus.

 

 

 

SPIRITUAL WATCH

How to converge and express the spirit of mass transformation into manifestation, HOW to be, IS the question. How to do is the praxis of the time.  Examining this question, probing it, is the chief trendline of this year. 

 

Despite all the noise and wailing, things seem clearer, calmer, and more upbeat. 

 

Common sense and a new level of sensitivity are beginning to prevail.  Some Americans are learning how to think and lead again.  There are many positive signs in the Mideast and in government.  Truth is upwelling, oh what a liberating force, dissolving the illusions an delusions which have held sway for so long.

 

Before it is done, as the liberating truths roll out during the next 48 months, the last Empire will be dissolved and it may be done relatively peacefully.

 

The secular world is spent.  It is done, exhausted, the party of materialism is over.  This last Boomer Bender has sickened everyone and left us retching emotionally over the sands of Iraq. Time to go home and find an honest job doing real things for real people..

 

Here is a real job.  It is time to link the spiritual communities. IT HAS BECOME URGENT TO LINK THE SPIRITUAL COMMUNITIES WITHIN A BROAD MOVEMENT WHICH PROVIDES NEW CURRENTS OF LEADERSHIP.  The spiritual forces are immensely strong. In all matters, follow the lead of the spirit, whose voice you find within is urging you to the highest and best for all.  Breakthroughs are going to be made this year and next.  The spiritualizing energy seems to have intensified in our bodies and souls, transforming the mind and the emotions at a far more rapid rate. 

 

The May 8 Medicine Wheel ceremonies were a good way to begin.  The energy has been intense, focused, and highly communicative.

 

I do not know if it is our prayers.  I do not know if it is direct action from that which is God.  I do not know if it is simple intelligence.

 

But the energy is building. 

 

Two days ago I had a dream, an intense 3D, color, talking out loud dream, one of those few (for me) really vivid ones you remember.  Or was it a dream? 

 

In the wee early morning hours I was talking to myself telling myself that I could break through the last remnants of the veil and push myself at will through and into the other plane, that all the neurons in the crown chakra were ready. And to prove it to myself, I proceeded to do it.

 

I awoke at about four a.m. and realized that I had just dreamed I could wake myself up from the other side by the use of will and focusing through a portion of my head chakra. The transistion between states was nearly instantaneous. It was like pushing through and into a sack.

 

I was even more impressed when I realized I was neither thirsty nor needed to drain my bladder, which are the main reasons, other than loud coyotes, I wake up at night.

 

And then I realized it was not a dream at all.  It was myself coming back down through the soul stem or spiral of white light to give myself a vivid demonstration of awakening, that I was graduating into a new condition of volitional movement or awakening between the realms of spirit and flesh.

 

Indeed I find it so, and I know that this is the same for many others, which is why I mention it.  I think Spirit wants us to bring this forth and into active manifestation through heart action.  I get the message everyday.

 

Meditation builds this but it is really heart action that energizes it and prepares the way by leading us into the circumstances of growth.  Keep dissolving away the mental boxes and the assumptions of yesteryear. Focus on the heart action seeking greater unity.  The one thing which is certain is that yesteryear is gone forever.  It is the assumptions of yesteryear which are the deadly ones, the blinders which keep you so focused you cannot perceive the wider horizons of greater opportunities.

 

Only exceptional effort and intense heart action which liberates absolute honesty in the West can overcome and heal the immense damage which ALL parties to the violence in the world have created with their emotionally-driven reactions and messianic pretensions, whether the flavor is Muslim, Jewish, or Christian (Zoroastrian Evangelism). 

 

Keep in mind that Mayan Elders in Guatamala invited us to attend spiritual connection and alignment meditations in September of 2003.  It was focused on the awakening of the people of the South.  The meditation was designed to put heart action into manifestation in the activity of the peoples in the Southern Hemisphere, esp. in Latin America.

 

Since then, a mass movement in Argentina has ignited, literally in mass candlelight vigil marches, a mass unification which has resulted in a huge wave of reform measures which have thrown out hundreds of corrupt officials and ended the practice of right wing “kidnappings”.  And one of our own close associates and really old friends was pulled down to Argentina. His posts about what is happening there, under the Cornplanter name, you have seen and I hope you see a lot more of.

 

As well, the Bolivians threw out the CIA crony government and many other changes are advancing throughout Latin America.

 

At that time, in September 2003,  the Mayan Elders predicted that major changes would begin in May 2004, especially in the economic realm, and that conditions would continue to deteriorate slowly from that point onwards, reaching another major crisis point in the last couple months of 2004, perhaps in the form of major disruption and major demonstrations in the U.S.

 

I have been hoping they would be wrong, that they were really describing minor things which would not really heat up until 2006.

 

On May 8 many of us in North America responded in an unorganized way to suggestions for continental meditation by Medicine Wheel Shamans from some traditional tribes.  Our focus was the joining of the medicine wheels into a continental medicine wheel to achieve a rebalancing of the land and people.

 

The stock market bubble immediately broke and lost 400 points and a number of sources began to tell us about how widespread the CIA’s torture chamber really is…

 

I don’t know that is in synch with what but I can sure see that this is in synch.

 

I rather suspect that I am going to be listening to the Mayan Elders when ever they wish to communicate. 

 

Do you get the feeling that major lateral moves are coming your way?  Perhaps it is time to begin thinking about your choices more energetically.  Keep in mind that the secular age, which began roughly with the steam engine and the ending of the “commons” has come to an end point.   Dr. Faustus Strangelove is in control of practically everything and it has all gone to hell.

 

God, that is to say, the appeal to consciousness of higher purpose and meaning, is inevitable. There is the only ground there is on which we can come together and make our stand.

 

 

 

 

POLAR MOTION

What is happening to the motion of the Earth. For the overall summary of the status of polar motion GO TO:

http://michaelmandeville.com/earthmonitor/ecbulletins
/statusreports.htm#polarmotion

(watch the word wrap on the URL)

To see the current graph of polar motion, see

http://www.michaelmandeville.com/earthmonitor/topten_monitor.htm

Scroll down the page until you get to the black and white graphs with show the x and y coordinates of the North Spin Axis on two separate graphs.

 

AS REPORTED LAST WEEK: There is an interesting pattern which can now be seen in the XY plots of the world data system for the location of the North Spin Axis.  Go to the plots by scrolling down the following web page until you find the black and white graphs:

http://www.michaelmandeville.com/earthmonitor/topten_monitor.htm

 

 

Look at the Y graph, the bottom one.  You can see that the “waves” look pretty smooth and regular, very nearly your classic sinusoidal wave form of energy flow.

 

Now look at the X graph, the top one.  You can see that the bottoms and tops of the waves are a bit on the “dented” side.

 

What this means is that the Earth’s axis has no problem smoothly flowing in the Y dimension, either to it or away from it, which is up and down Longitudes East 90 and West 90. But the Earth’s wobbling motion encounters resistance from something out of balance near the X dimension, which is Longitudes 0 and 180.  When the motion data is plotted into a spiral graph, the source of the disturbance appears to be in the bands of Long East 0-45 or Long West 180 to West 145.

 

Some sort of imbalance in the mass of the Earth appears to lie in these bands and this imbalance is no doubt causing the current progressive shifting of the Spin axis.  Some serious four dimensional supercomputing could analyze polar location data for the past 100 years and probably come much closer to locating the imbalance. It would probably also define the current average rate of drift in the location as well as defining the impact of the Sun-Moon-Earth gravitational fields in causing variations in the drift.  These variations probably can be correlated with quake and volcanic activity..

 

AS REPORTED PREVIOUSLY:  The motion of the spin axis appears to be more or less normal.  This is the least of our problems.

 

AS PREVIOUSLY REPORTED:  Steady as she goes. A slow acceleration in the shifting of the poles has been underway for perhaps the past 100 years and the last three decades has shown an increase in the rate of acceleration.  This has appeared to accelerate even more during the past decade.

 

 

MAGNETIC POLES – SHIFTING

What is happening to the magnetic fields of the Earth. For the overall summary of the status of the changes in the magnetic field GO TO:

http://michaelmandeville.com/earthmonitor/ecbulletins/statusreports.htm#earthfield

(watch the word wrap on the URL)

 

THERE IS NO EVIDENCE, ZIP ZILCH NADA ZERO OF AN OVERALL TREND IN THE DECLINE OF THE EARTH’S MAGNETIC FIELD.

 

The only CLEAR and DEMONSTRABLE trend is as reported in “Return of the Phoenix Book Three:  The Prophecies”.  The magnetic North Pole is shifting by about 20 KM per year in a beeline headed for the North Spin Axis.  In other words, the spin axis and the magnetic North Pole have not been the same through all of recorded human history but currently it appears that these two are in the process of lining up and merging.

 

No real change during the past year:  a magnetic pole shift is not something to be very concerned about within this decade at least.

 

 

PLANETS & ALIGNMENTS
(all time coordinates here and elsewhere are in UTC unless otherwise noted)

For background and the current information on planetary alignments GO TO:

http://michaelmandeville.com/earthmonitor/ecbulletins/statusreports.htm#planets

(watch the word wrap on the URL)

See Earth Changes 2003 Almanac Calendar for additional details

http://www.michaelmandeville.com/ebooks/calendar2003/

The Almanac lays out the planets and the lunar phases for entire year in advance to allow you to find the best and worst periods of weather, earthquake activity, ethereal “lunar” influences, etc.

 

AS REPORTED PAST WEEKS:  Now that Solar Cycle 23 is finally dissolving into a “minima” phase, and also especially now during May, both planetary alignments and sunspot peaks will be scarce.  The Sunspot Cycle should begin to act more and more like a minima period, with average ISSN monthly counts under 20 most of the time and with NASA counts under 40 most of the time.

 

We have two upcoming planetary alignments in May, both of which should be weak in their influence.  Both involve Mercury aligning with the most distant “real” planets of Neptune and Uranus:

 

May 22:  Mercury | Neptune

 

May 28:  Mercury | Uranus

 

AS PREDICTED LAST WEEK:  The solar seas should remain calm for several weeks as neither of these alignments should do much more than cause a 20 point increase in sunspots, IF THAT. The one to be wary about, if you are  traveling or planning outdoor events, is the next Venus | Earth.  Venus catches up with the Earth and aligns with it June 7 2004 just before the Summer solstice.  (THE ALMANAC CALENDAR MISTAKENLY SHOWS THIS ALIGNMENT AS A MERCURY|EARTH|PLUTO ALIGNMENT).  This alignment should begin to be felt as increased solar activity during about the last week of May and the sunspot peak for it should be broad and early, perhaps as much as 10 days early.

 

The Moon this day is South of the Equator (its South Node) 23 days past the New Moon approximately 380,000 KM from the Earth. It is 34% of the last Full Moon (visibility).  The Moon is now waning to the next New Moon of May 19 at 04:54 UTC. 

 

We are a few days past Perigee and the next Lunar Apogee is May 21,  12:03 UTC, at 406261 KM from the Earth.  All tectonic activity should decrease until about May 17.  The next New Moon is on May 19 2004.  (Perigee = the Moon’s closest approach to the Earth during its monthly orbit which increases gravitational influence of the Moon by as much as 15%; Apogee = the Moon’s greatest distance from the Earth during its monthly orbit).   (Berkland has a more complex formula for syzygy and his dates are often different.)  For details see http://www.syzygyjob.com/

 

 

PLANET WATCHING  

For background and the current information on observable planets and planetary alignments GO TO:

http://michaelmandeville.com/earthmonitor/ecbulletins/statusreports.htm#planets

(watch the word wrap on the URL)

 

Venus is still very bright and can be spotted as soon as the Sun begins to dip under the horizon. Venus, of course, is slowly catching up the Earth and will align with the Earth in June. So it will get brighter yet (and even lower to the horizon at Sunset.  Right now it can be seen in small amateur telescopes as a thin silvery crescent.

 

NASA INVITES US:  “SPACE STATION ECLIPSE:  On May 13th, sky watchers can see a total eclipse of the planet Jupiter by the International Space Station (ISS). The narrow path of totality runs up and down the US east coast. If you miss the eclipse, you can still see the ISS during one of its many bright evening apparitions this week.” Get the full story from http://science.nasa.gov/headlines/y2004/12may_issjupiter.htm

 

NASA ALSO SUGGESTS:  “COMET NEAT:  Comet NEAT (C/2001 Q4) is fading, but it's still an easy target for binoculars and backyard telescopes. Look for it tonight after sunset; it's not far above the bright star Procyon in the southwestern sky.”

 

 

 

 

SUNSPOTS

The events in the solar atmosphere which impact weather and climate patterns, the magnetic field and auroras, including forecasts for the week, month, and year ahead.  For background information, go to:

http://michaelmandeville.com/earthmonitor/ecbulletins/statusreports.htm#sunspots

(watch the word wrap on the URL)

To follow the numbers below, view the Solar Cycle 23 Chart at

http://www.michaelmandeville.com/earthmonitor/topten_monitor.htm

Or, get the data in a table from

http://www.sec.noaa.gov/ftpdir/latest/DSD.txt

 

AS PREDICTED,  THE SUNSPOT COUNT WAS MAINLY DOWN FOR THE PAST SEVEN DAYS

 

BUT,

 

NOT NEARLY AS MUCH AS I PROJECTED.

 

The sunspot count dropped to 30 on May 5 and then enigmatically rose again to 57 on May 9. Then it slowly sank again to about 47 as of yesterday May 11.

 

The count is most likely going down....the Solar Flux mysteriously rose to 95 from a low of 85 but is now headed downward again, which will bring us lower sunspot numbers during the next couple of days, at least.

 

Was this mini-peak in the sunspot count brought by the upcoming Mercury | Neptune alignment?  Could be.  It is a little early, some 10 days early, but we have seen similar early peaks in the past. 

Let us see how this unfolds.  Solar activity should be dropping rapidly but will perhaps another mini-peak in about a week for the  Mercury | Uranus alignment on May 28.  This one will most likely be higher than 60 but should not be much larger than that.

 

These higher numbers (than expected) are making for a more energized May than I projected very strongly during the past few months.....

 

Is anything special going on? I don't know.   Everything in this strange year seems more polarized, more energetic, more pressing the extremes….perhaps it is in the cosmic winds of vaster cycles than we are able to monitor here.

 

Even so, we are recovering sunspot “drunks”. STAND PAT PREDICTION FOR MAY 2004:  We should now have the lowest levels of solar influence on our bodies, minds, and souls since the beginning of Solar Cycle 23 Peak during the last half of 1999.

 

SOLAR ACTIVITY

As reported by NASA/NOAA unless otherwise stated

 

The Solar Wind was mild at 393.1 km/s this hour (about 10:00 UTC) but it was pushing a robust density of 5.1 protons/cm3”. 

 

The Fluxgate Chart at the University of Alaska (which measures magnetic disturbances in the Earth’s atmosphere created by solar winds and ion storms) recorded a modest disturbance a half day ago. 

(as of this time, about 2 PM Mountain time US). To see the Fluxgate moment to moment, go to http://137.229.36.30/cgi-bin/magnetometer/plotstations.cgi?

(watch the word wrap on the URL)

 

NASA PREDICTS:  Nothing much for Auroras or solar storms.  Solar Flares: Probabilities for a medium-sized (M-class) or a major (X-class) solar flare during the next 24/48 hours: less than 10%, perhaps up to 30% for geomagnetic disturbances during the next 24/48 hours. 

 

Jan Alvestad reports: “The geomagnetic field was quiet to slightly active on May 11. Solar wind speed ranged between 378 and 435 km/sec. The interplanetary magnetic field has since about 20h UTC been moderately southwards and this has caused an increase in geomagnetic activity to unsettled to active.  At midnight there were 4 spotted regions on the visible disk. The solar flare activity level was very low. No C class events were recorded during the day.  May 9 and 11: No fully or partly Earth directed CME observed. May 10: A slow partial halo CME was observed in LASCO C3 following a filament eruption in the southwest quadrant. This eruption began at 03:36 UTC as observed in EIT images. The CME could reach Earth on May 13 and cause unsettled to active conditions.”

 

Jan Alvestad predicts: “A large coronal hole in the northern hemisphere is probably located too far to the north to become geoeffective..”  Alvestad also predicts for the next 24 hours, 0% probability of coronal holes, 20-60% probability of CME's, 0% probability of M and X Class Flares

 

MONTHLY AVERAGES IN SOLAR CYCLE 23: (These numbers are reported by Jan Alvestad) Over all, the sunspot average count (ISSN) for February 2003 was 46.4 and for March it rose to 61.5.  The number for April 2003 was 60, June saw 77.4.  After falling to an average under 50 in September 2003, a huge surge in sunspot activity drove the November 2003 average number to 67.2. December demonstrated a definite downturn: 47.0 average sunspot count.  This downward trend was confirmed with the ISSN monthly average at 37.2 for January 2004.  BUT, February’s average count rose once again, along with the amount of record breaking February weather, to 46.0. March 2004  was even higher with the ISSN average count at 48.9  April’s count was radically lower at 39.3.

 

 

 

WORLD WEATHER SUMMARY

Those who have been following the patterns have seen that the correlations between sunspot peaks and major storm fronts coming in off the oceans to track across the continents is roughly pretty good, sometimes very much exactly on the mark.  Accordingly, our “sloppycasts” (approximate continental weather patterns) this past few years have proven out to be fairly worthwhile.

 

AS PREDICTED (but not as completely delivered): 

 

easier and milder as she goes until the first week of June.

 

A LOT OF PEOPLE WHO ARE FINALLY CLUEING INTO THE HARD EXTREMES IN THE WEATHER PATTERNS OF THE PAST FEW YEARS ARE GEARING UP PSYCHOLOGICALLY FOR MORE OF THE SAMO THIS YEAR.  But the herd is always a year late.  I AM CERTAIN THAT THE WEATHER IS IN THE PROCESS OF MODERATING DOWNWARDS AND THAT PATTERNS WILL NORMALIZE.

 

BUT, there is one more major storm cloud before the beginning of Summer. An alignment of Venus | Earth on June 6 should make for a wet early Summer.  This weather disturbance may get pretty intense.

 

There will be two more periods of Mercury’s alignments with the inner planets this year, but the planets will not be grouped as close together and the waning of the Sunspot cycle should drastically reduce the solar input.  This year 2004 should become increasingly a good weather year compared to the past several.

 

EARTH WEATHER PREDICTION FOR THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS:

(Northern Hemisphere) This “sloppycast” is based on sunspot counts, planetary alignments, and visual data shown on satellite and radar.

 

AS PREVIOUSLY PREDICTED (BUT NOT AS WELL DELIVERED AS I WAS HOPING). Even now West Coast weather is moderating and the weather should begin to moderate even more than today. Look for weather everywhere to move close to the statistical averages which are typical in any given area.

 

BUT

 

The Jet Stream over North America has not straightened out nearly as much as expected.  Until it does, we are not going to get as close to normal as I was predicting.

 

When the succeeding dips in the Jet Stream flow over the continent during the following weeks, they should move more slowly and with considerably less “dip”. THAT’S THE “NORMAL” FOR WHICH WE ARE LOOKING.

 

EARTH WEATHER PREDICTION FOR SPRING SEASON:

(Northern Hemisphere) This “sloppycast” is based on sunspot counts, planetary alignments, and visual data shown on satellite and radar.

 

May is a lot more variable and unpredictable than I predicted, though the extremes seem to no longer be present.

I sill hold out for a “beautiful period” in most places. 

 

June 7 or so will see another major storm front roll in to greet the official opening of Summer on June 21.

 

FOR NASA/NOAA:  Can your forecast beat my forecast?  You blew March and April and I correctly got the main drift fairly well for North America:

 

“May should be exceptionally wonderful, a normal Spring more normal than in five years. Two minor stormy periods will strike the end of the month, but the weather will not see major storms again until about June 7, when a another round of exceptionally stormy weather will plough across the continents for about a week.” 

 

SOUTHWEST CONDITIONS:

for background or more details see

http://michaelmandeville.com/earthmonitor/ecbulletins/statusreports.htm/#weather

(watch the word wrap on the URL)

 

AS REPORTED LAST TWO WEEKS:  Tremendous growth in all plants.  Best bloom of cactus in four years. The nights remain quite cool but the days are now warm.  This will probably remain for about a month and then begin the all too typical hot summer.  As the rest of North America normalizes, Arizona will begin its typical mid year bake.

 

Weather will now normalize into close alignment with statistical averages.

 

EL NINO & LA NINA WATCH
watch is now open again; Pacific water activity appears mostly normal, we are between the extremes of the ENSO; but all Auguries point to next year for the next onset.

 

A fairly large cool patch of ocean water has set up and consolidated along the Pacific Equator from the coast of Peru out some 35 degrees of Longitude.  It is about half the size as last year’s cool patch at this time of the year.

 

It would seem that no Nino or Nina is indicated as of the moment, but this sudden cooling of the Equatorial belt bears watching carefully.  It could build towards a surprise La Nina, but that is not very probable.

 

The huge warm patch in the Southern Hemisphere, which no doubt made Australia/New Zealand weather patterns more extreme the past six months, has virtually disappeared.  The weather patterns South of the Equator should now normalize.

 

ADDITIONAL NOTE:  The year 2004 and/or 2005, in accordance with the 100 year X Wave Graph of the motion of the spin axis in Chandler’s Wobble, COULD BE EL NINO YEARS.   Graphs of various El Nino periods seem to show that the beginning of temperature build-up can occur as late as April of an El Nino year.  So 2005 may not be callable until early Spring 2005.

 

 

 

EARTHQUAKES

Around the world to see the current and potential patterns of seismic activity, with coverage of the windows of danger.  I prepared this section by pulling out the Earth Changes 2003 Calendar which has everything plotted on it.  You should too.  Check out the Almanac as well, it discusses all of the windows for the year and even spotlights the two most dangerous windows. Unless otherwise specified, all quake activity which is discussed is based on the USGS database charts and tables which list quake activity in excess of 2.0 mag. and above. FOR MORE QUAKE INFO RELATED TO SYZYGY WINDOWS, Jim Berkland calculates syzygy windows with considerably more sophistication than I do.  See http://syzygyjob.com

 

THE MOST SIGNIFICANT ACTION OF THE WEEK OCCURRED, AS IT FREQUENTLY DOES, IN THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE AUSTRALIAN TECTONIC PLATE.  This zone hosted a 6.3 and a 6.1 quake at opposite ends, the only two quakes greater than 6.0 for the last seven days.  As well, substantial quake activity occurred along the Western coast of Latin and Central America.  All other major activity was widely scattered.

 

The greatest number of quakes above mag 2.0,  approx. 28, occurred on May 6, right on time for the Full Moon and within two days of the Perigee. On all other days, including the Full Moon Syzygy, quakes were diminished in frequency, generally under 10 quakes per day.  The week saw only two 6.0 plus mag quakes, both in the tropical belt.  Seismic activity in YELLOWSTONE was still below typical as compared to the past few years.

 

Only two quakes, down by three from last week,  continued the “shapeshifting” of the Earth by striking in the Great Rift which winds around the Earth at the bottoms of the oceans. One struck in the Mid Atlantic Ridge along the Equator and another struck near the South Sandwich Islands (on the edge of the Antarctic Tectonic Plate at the Southern most area of the Atlantic Ocean. These were in the range of 5.1 to 5.5

 {The quake activity in the Great Rift is one of the most important harbingers for the Earth Changes Watch to monitor. As the Earth’s crust adjusts its shape in response to gravitational and spin energy vectors, quakes in the Great Rift increase and tectonic activity all around the world increases}’’

 

The shape shifter in the Mid Atlantic Ridge was followed within 2 and 7 hours by two quakes off the Coast of Costa Rica.  And then it was followed on the opposite side of the Mid Atlantic Ridge by two quakes in Zambia in Africa in hour nine and hour ten after the shape shifter.

 

I have never seen such as clear "ricochet" pattern in the quakes on either side of the Rift.  Apparently in this case, a great rift tears and then on either side the continental plates respond with quakes to adjust their shape and tensions against the other tectonic plates.

 

Here are the shape shifters for the week:

 

Magnitude 5.1 SOUTH SANDWICH ISLANDS REGION

2004 May 07 09:50:31 UTC

http://neic.usgs.gov/neis/bulletin/neic_ieam.html

Preliminary Earthquake Report

U.S. Geological Survey, National Earthquake Information Center

Location          57.79S 25.59W

Depth 71.0 kilometers

Region             SOUTH SANDWICH ISLANDS REGION

Reference        145 km (90 miles) NNE of Bristol Island, South Sandwich Islands

155 km (95 miles) SE of Visokoi Island, South Sandwich Islands

3570 km (2210 miles) SSE of BUENOS AIRES, Argentina

Location Quality           Error estimate: horizontal +/- 11.5 km; depth +/- 26.1 km

Location Quality

Parameters      Nst=102, Nph=102, Dmin=2164.6 km, Rmss=0.87 sec, Erho=11.5 km, Erzz=26.1 km, Gp=49.3 degrees

 

Magnitude 5.5 NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC RIDGE

2004 May 11 23:58:54 UTC

Preliminary Earthquake Report

http://neic.usgs.gov/neis/bulletin/neic_iicu.html

U.S. Geological Survey, National Earthquake Information Center

Location          12.62N 44.53W

Depth 10.0 kilometers

Region             NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC RIDGE

Reference        1200 km (750 miles) NE of CAYENNE, French Guiana

1620 km (1000 miles) NNE of Belem, Para, Brazil

 

NORTH AMERICAN WATCH

Unless otherwise specified, all quake activity which is discussed is based on the USGS LOCAL AREA database charts and tables which list quake activity in excess of 1.0 mag. and above. Generally most of the quakes which appear in these counts are in the range of 1 to 2 in magnitude.

 

Seismic activity in North America for quakes in the range of 1.0 to 3.0 were UP for the last seven days, as should be for this syzygy period. But in the lower continental U.S., quake numbers were down.  Go figure.  (answer:  Alaska quakes were up)

 

575 in U.S./Alaska as a whole, up from 548 last week, widely scattered. 

 

353 in California and Nevada, down slightly from 369 last week, in all the usual places

 

21 in the Pacific Northwest, down from 28 reported last week (two week period) – these were scattered, with NO NEW quakes in St Helens or near Portland.

 

33 in Utah, widely scattered in Northern half of the State, up from 16 last week

 

24 in Long Lakes (Mammoth Lake), down from 25 last week, tightly clustered in the volcanic field

 

YELLOWSTONE WATCH

Unless otherwise specified, all quake activity which is discussed is based on the USGS LOCAL AREA database charts and tables which list quake activity in excess of 1.0 mag. and above. Generally most of the quakes which appear in these counts are in the range of 1 to 2 in magnitude.

 

13 in Yellowstone, up from last week’s 8. These were widely scattered around the huge Yellowstone National Park.  Most of them were in the range of 1.0 in magnitude. For Yellowstone activity, see

http://www.seis.utah.edu/recenteqs/Maps/111-45.html

 

WEEK’S MOST SIGNIFICANT QUAKES

 

Here are two more of the week’s most significant quakes

 

Magnitude 4.4 ZAMBIA

2004 May 12 09:45:44 UTC

Preliminary Earthquake Report

http://neic.usgs.gov/neis/bulletin/neic_ijcr.html

U.S. Geological Survey, National Earthquake Information Center

Location          12.78S 26.58E

Depth 10.0 kilometers

Region             ZAMBIA

Reference        145 km (90 miles) WSW of Chingola, Zambia

155 km (95 miles) SW of Lubumbashi, Dem. Republic of the Congo

350 km (215 miles) NNW of LUSAKA, Zambia

1695 km (1060 miles) SW of NAIROBI, Kenya

 

Magnitude 6.3 SOUTHEAST OF THE LOYALTY ISLANDS

2004 May 07 01:26:42 UTC

Preliminary Earthquake Report

http://neic.usgs.gov/neis/bulletin/neic_ieac.htmlU.S. Geological Survey, National Earthquake Information Center

Location          22.02S 170.26E

Depth 14.0 kilometers

Region             SOUTHEAST OF THE LOYALTY ISLANDS

Reference        190 km (115 miles) WNW of Ile Hunter, Loyalty Isl., New Caledonia

250 km (155 miles) ESE of Tadine, Loyalty Islands, New Caledonia

395 km (245 miles) E of NOUMEA, New Caledonia

1695 km (1060 miles) NNW of Auckland, New Zealand

 

 

 

VOLCANOES

Around the world with the most interesting and relevant volcano stories; briefs on the likely eruptions as well as coverage of on-going activity. For information on current eruptions, see the Southwest Volcano Centre at:

http://www.swvrc.org/cerupt.htm

or see “Breaking Volcano Eruption News” at

http://www.volcanolive.com/volcanolive.html

(For the past couple of years I have been counting volcanoes in the classifications used by the Southwest Volcano Centre.  But the Centre cleaned house this first week and dropped all volcanoes off its list which it could not confirm to be in one of the three categories as of the beginning of the year. This means that a lot of volcanoes dropped off the lists, making the stats from this moment on un-comparable with last year’s numbers.)

 

ONCE AGAIN, OVERALL WORLD VOLCANIC ACTIVITY SEEMS TO BE UP JUST SLIGHTLY OVER LAST WEEK. Two volcanoes were upgraded from restless or alert status to “active” status.

(This is a fairly subjective guestimate based on the numbers and data reported by the SWVC, quake data, and other reports)

 

Here are the SWVC volcanic activity numbers as of May 12, 2004:

 

5 on restless list (could go on active list at any moment) (down one from last week)

 

46 on alert list (pre-cursors suggesting that activity may begin) same as last week)

 

27 on active list (seismic, gas, steam, lava, ash, or explosive activity) (up two from  last week)

 

Popo was about the same as last week. Popo gave a 13 puff day yesterday, down about one third from last week.  Centrapred reports for May 12 (17:00 GMT) that “In the last 24 hours the activity of Popocatepetl volcano remained stable. There were only 13 small exhalations accompanied by steam and gas emissions. The other monitored parameters remain without important changes. At the moment of this report we can not see the volcano, however, this morning we could see.At the moment of this report we can observe the volcano with low fumarolic activity. In an aerial photograph taken on February 03th by SCT, continuous subsidence is observed in the inner crater; an external lava dome at the bottom of the crater cannot be distinguished. Due to the low levels of activity shown in the past days, the scenarios consisting of explosions and ash emision are less probable.”

 

MOST ACTIVE VOLCANOES THIS WEEK:

from Volcano Breaking News by Volcanologist John Seach

at http://www.volcanolive.com/volcanolive.html

Volcano Travel:  john@volcanolive.com

Dates in red are posted in Eastern Australian Time (UT + 10 hr)

 

Kilauea Volcano (Hawaii)

19.425 N, 155.292 W, summit elevation 1222 m, Shield volcano

Monday 10th May, 2004

Lava is advancing towards the sea at Kilauea volcano in Hawaii. On Sunday morning lava had advanced to within 430m of the sea cliffs. Back from the coastal flat, the lava is confined to lava tubes, with several breakouts. The lava flows are once again more accessible to visitors at the end of Chain of Craters Road. The new lava flow is called the "Banana flow" and has burnt forest in its way towards the coast.

More on Kilauea Volcano...

Volcanoes of Hawaii...

http://www.volcanolive.com/kilauea.html

 

Karymsky Volcano (Russia)

54.05 N, 159.43 E, summit elevation 1486 m, stratovolcano

Monday 10th May, 2004

In the past twenty-four hours, local seismological stations have recorded about 410 tremors at Karymsky volcano. Some of the seismic activity episodes have been accompanied with the ejection of gas and ash columns 1,500 meters into the atmosphere. Ash fallout has covered the area lying within ten kilometers of the volcano with a blanket 3 to 5 centimeters thick. Satellite images show an ash cloud from the volcano extending as far as 16 kilometers downwind.

More on Karymsky Volcano...

Volcanoes of Russia...

http://www.volcanolive.com/karymsky.html

 

Kilauea Volcano (Hawaii)

19.425 N, 155.292 W, summit elevation 1222 m, Shield volcano

Saturday 8th May, 2004

Lava continues to flow towards the ocean at Kilauea volcano, and may reach the ocean within days. There was a brief pause in the flow yestersday, as the lava stopped about 800 m from the sea. The number of tourists visiting the Kilauea Volcano has increased to about 800 per day, but authorities warn that hiking to the lava flows can be dangerous. Lava last entered the ocean during the summer of 2003, and until recently most of the activity was high up on the volcano near Pu`u `O`o crater. Kilauea is one of the world's most active volcanoes, and the current eruption has been continuing since 1983.

More on Kilauea Volcano...

Volcanoes of Hawaii...

http://www.volcanolive.com/kilauea.html

 

Sheveluch Volcano (Russia)

56.653 N, 161.360 E, summit elevation 3283 m, stratovolcano

Saturday 8th May, 2004

Eruptions continue at Sheveluch volcano in Russia. Today, ash emissions reached a height of 3700 m abovce the crater, and were accompanied by an earthquake which lasted three minutes. Seismological stations record small earthquakes every day, about magnitude 2 on the Richter scale. The earthquakes are shallow, at about 500 m depth. Satellite observations show a very hot lava dome at the volcano. The current series of eruptions have been occurring for about four months. Eruptions of the volcano are of explosive character and hard to predict.

More on Sheveluch volcano...

Volcanoes of Russia...

http://www.volcanolive.com/sheveluch.html

 

Veniaminof Volcano (Alaska)

56.17 N, 159.38 W, summit elevation 2507 m, stratovolcano

Thursday 6th May, 2004

Emissions of light brown ash were visible at Veniamionof Volcano on 5th May, rising to 2000 ft above the volcano. The volcano has been restless for about a week, with ash emissions, and small earthquakes. This could pose a hazard to aircraft in the vicinity of the active crater.

More on Veniaminof Volcano...

http://www.volcanolive.com/veniaminof.html

 

 

 

ECONOMY WATCH 

For background information, use password to go to:

http://michaelmandeville.com/ebooks/statusreports/statusreports.htm#economics

(watch the word wrap on the URL)

 

AS REPORTED FOR WEEKS: The bubble is still barely being maintained, THE BULLS ARE COMPLETELY STALLED IN THE SOUTH PASTURE, MILLING IN TOTAL CONFUSION.

 

CURRENTLY:  The incompetence of the top levels of management in the American Government and its tragic over-extension in the illegal invasion and occupation of Iraq will keep sowing the seeds of military, political, and economic confusion.   All “spending” efforts to revive the economy, mainly through throwing away all the limits to the Pentagon’s spending, are mainly stimulating the growth of production in China while accelerating the outsourcing of jobs to Asia.

 

May 12 NEW:  Wide reports that China’s boom continues unabated and imports at China once again broke all records last month.

 

May 12 New:   Economic insiders are crying “foul” an bogus job growth statistics.  It seems that the Bush Administration is imaginatively “inventing” or “speculating” about the “inferred” growth rates of “estimated” new small business formations which they “believe” the tax cuts have created. The million job expansion which Republicans are talking about is bogus.  It doesn’t exist, just like the mythical “six soldiers” who are responsible for the prisoner abuse in the Iraqi prison don’t exist.  What does exist is a dishonest system which induces brutal behaviors on the one hand and unmitigated lying on the other hand.   We are obviously in deeper and deeper doodoo on both fronts – in the Military System and in Job Formation.

 

AS STATED LAST WEEK:  These doubts about the soundness of the American position in the world are troubling all major economic forces and groups, which are more afflicted by pessimism than at any time in the past 25 years, perhaps the past 50 years.  Added to these doubts are the huge uncertainties which Al Qaeda has created for all financial circles.  Osama Bin Laden, without exploding a single bomb, is still capable of sending a crudely made video or audio tape for play in the Arab world which has the power to cause the government to incur billions of dollars in bills for extraordinary security measures as well as causing sudden panic in financial markets.  A sudden bombing strike in the U.S by a small team of terrorists, or some other form of terrorism, is fully capable to causing a significant drop in the values of the stock market and other equities overnight.  All major investors know this, those who control the great volume of stock, which makes them cautious.

 

STAND PAT FOR THIS YEAR ON THE FOLLOWING:

 

But the problem of economic security goes deeper.  Lack of objective investor confidence in the current political regime under Bush’s Imperial Faction has led to major speculation against the value of the dollar.  Huge international investors, such as Warren Buffet and George Soros, two of the century’s largest holders of CASH, are now aggressively betting against the dollar and they are openly advising all non-spec investors to diversify by owning several currencies.  This represents a fundamental shift in their policies which has slowly formed up during the past year and a half, in direct proportion to the international polarization and isolation generated by the Imperial Faction.

 

This has led to increased aggressiveness in speculation of international financial markets, which increases the volatility of all things while generating an international wave of inflation in the value of the dollar.  Because the leg bone is connected to the hip bone, this is causing a progressive and rapid increase in the price of energy, which in turn is generating another wave of inflation…

 

The essential logic of this and its timeline was all developed in the book “The Coming Economic Collapse of 2006”.  All of what was predicted in the book is on track, a bit more rapidly than projected in the book. It was difficult to forecast the depth of stupidity into which American policy and economics has fallen.  Also as predicted, tragically, control of the Democratic Party has remained solidly in the hands of its Washington DC faux-centrist careerist bubbleheads. With the arts of media sorcery, the centrists have once again mastered a new round of rhetorical trickeries to eliminate Dean and Kucinich and other progressives and keep its insurgent base from pressing for a radical deviation from the basic Imperial policy line of globalism and ascendancy for the Black Arts Nation.

 

Accordingly, there is little or no hope for economic turn-around during the next two years. Americans are most likely forced to play out the globalism farce to the bitter end of a deep depression.

 

The military situation may improve slowly. At the present, Bush’s stated objective in handing over sovereignty to Iraq by June 31 trumps everything Kerry’s campaign is positioning itself for. Bush’s turn-over strategy may in fact work in Iraq “good nuf” to keep the lid on and show some progress.  With a puppet regime in Iraq to dump all the blame on for whatever goes wrong, Bush can continue to appear to be “the intervening savior”.

 

It may not sell to half the U.S. and a great part of the world, but it may sell to enough “NASCAR Dads”, Southern crackers, and corporate dorks to keep him in office.  That might help the Bush Family figure out how to rake even more profits and money out of the system for themselves and their cronies, but it will not help the economy in real terms and in fact it will accelerate the work which is producing the Great Sucking Sound of jobs being shipped overseas.

 

It appears to me at the moment that the careerist Democrats simply don’t “get it” and will remain consistently about one to five years behind in their understanding of what is happening.  More probable than not, a deep career disaster for the faux-centrists is the only remedy for their reconciliation with real heart and real values with real Godness. Academic head-tripper barmaids pushing secular career potions still turn their heads in the wrong directions.

 

REMAINDER OF STANDING PREDICTION FOR THIS YEAR:  The tide of confusion and doubt will gain volume each and every month until the crash next year or in 2006.  The Americans are being leveled, the world will not weep for them, and they shall not find their way until they come back into the production cycle. All of us will be greatly squeezed during the next three years and it will not be until 2008/2009 when we will begin to see a release, but only if we choose it and work incredibly hard for it.

                      

LONG TERM PREDICTION:  As the loss of value of the dollar accelerates, job creation in all the main old line pursuits will become nearly impossible in the U.S.  New production of new goods which solve real problems, along with companies which directly export American-produced goods, are the keys to the economic future.   But in the meantime, things will get funkier and funkier.  You have 2.5 years at max to the transition point at bottom.

 

GENERAL PREDICTION DJI AVERAGES

for detailed predictions, use password to go to:

http://michaelmandeville.com/ebooks/statusreports/statusreports.htm#stocks

(watch the word wrap on the URL)

 

The DJI moved decisively this week as the East Coast Boomer bubble of confidence in the Bush Administration finally broke in the wake of major violence in Iraq, a runaway prisoner abuse system which informed insiders insist is common in many places, new stats on the rapidly increasing trade deficit, increasing oil prices, the widely perceived specter of international inflation of the dollar in most commodities and food, and rowdy rejection of Job Growth claims.  This all probably broke political confidence in the Bush Administration for the last time.  The DJI closed today at 10,045.16, down significantly from 10,342.60 on Wednesday one week ago, at about the same level as December 2003.

 

IF YOU HAVEN’T ALREADY, LIQUIDATE ALL STOCK POSITIONS.  DON’T BUY BOOMER BUBBLE REAL ESTATE.  AND TAKE NOTE THAT GOLD IS DOING THE OPPOSITE OF ALL THE PROMISES OF THE TOOTERS THROUGH THE PAST 30 YEARS, MAINLY IT IS MOVING DOWNWARD.

 

EURO WATCH 

for detailed predictions, use password to go to:

http://michaelmandeville.com/ebooks/statusreports/statusreports.htm#euro

(watch the word wrap on the URL)

 

The dollar regained a penny and a half of purchasing power this past week, up to 0.8389 per euro from 0.8232 last Wednesday.  This brings back nearly two thirds of what it lost the prior week.

 

This dollar will not tarry here very long.  By summer international sources will be beating it down to make the tourist dollar exchange rates as expensive as banks can drive it.

 

AS PREDICTED LAST WEDNESDAY AND CONFIRMED TODAY: The appreciation of the dollar has probably peaked for this year.  The remainder of the year will be a long softening.  How soft it will go is mainly a function of international polarization and the travesties in Iraq, Afghanistan, and Palestine. As these fester and become worse, more and more inclination will be seen to dump the dollar.

 

Some of the steam is taken out of the dump the dollar pressures by the simple expedient of raising the price of oil.  This effectively cheapens the dollar while leaving exchange rates between many currencies nearly unchanged.   But Saudi Arabia, as promised (as publicly revealed by mass media sources), will cheapen (as they have just announced this past week)  the price of oil to help their long time old-timey Family partners, the Bush Family, win the fall Presidential election by creating the illusion that things are “all right” on the economic front.

 

Meanwhile, note that the stock market remains weak, the DOW is not up at all over its January high despite so-called record levels of improvements in corporate earnings.  Why?  With the dollar firmed and/or increasing in value, stocks seem overpriced.  When the dollar weakens, international inflation psychology will set in and international buyers will start to dump dollars into equities like stocks.  When this happens it will create another bubble, the last one before the crash of 2006.  How long this bubble will inflate I cannot predict.

 

AS PREVIOUSLY PREDICTED:  The next big erosion is likely to appear in late Spring. (witching hour for expansion of the euro zone into an number of Eastern European countries, this will create a surge of pressure against the dollar). This erosion is likely to slowly continue through the year and may bottom at $0.65 to $0.70 per euro by the end of 2004.

 

MUST READ:  The Dollar Panics” in “The Coming Economic Collapse of 2006”, which lays out the dynamics of what is happening. 

see http://www.michaelmandeville.com/calendar/collapse2006.htm

 

FOOD WATCH

 

Major escalations in food prices are beginning to roll through the system.  Basic consumer grain prices inflated by up to 50% during the past two months.  Already bread, dairy, butter, and chicken prices are rising.  The price increases this year will be fairly steep and this steepness, along with the higher prices for fuel, will frighten large numbers of people.

 

 

JOB WATCH

 

Government stats at the national level have become just another “Big Brother” lie.

 

Don’t believe a word of it.  Many state government statistics are more honest and to the point.  This is why analysts are finding that Federal stats are suspect.

 

 

 

POLITICAL WATCH

How are the sunspots likely to most effect human affairs during the weeks and months ahead?

 

SIGN OF THE TIMES: Ken Lay, who is now widely described as the biggest corporate swindler of all time, is still scott free and has never even been indicted. (ONE OF THE WORST ECONOMIC TERRORISTS OF ALL TIME).  At this time I will hazard the guess that he will be pardoned by Bush during the final days of his administration.

 

ANOTHER NEARLY EQUAL SIGN OF THE TIMES:  The lawyers who have been settling the Enron collapse for all parties, are billing the remaining net assets of Enron for approximately $1 billion for their services.  This is a new heavenly-ordained definition for the term Chutzpah.

 

I CALL IT CLASS ECONOMIC TERRORISM.  The first group of Enron crooks failed at getting away with ripping the system.  So the second group of crooks has devised legal bills to rip the system in a theoretically legal way.  But there is absolutely nothing these people have done which is worth a penny more than the wages of a skilled plumber or auto mechanic.  The simple fact is that the judge could rule that the claim itself is a corrupt practice.  The judge who approves of anything but reasonable professional parity should be jailed for racketeering and fraud

 

“IONIZING SOLAR ACTIVITY” & MASS BEHAVIOR

 

I predicted last month that mass emotionalism should now begin to recede as the sunspot numbers declined.  I somewhat sarcastically predicted that “Humanity should show a slight tendency to return to its senses and try reasoning with its cortex”.

 

Well Central Casting did not make that easy.  It is going to take some time.  Basically a huge negative wave of rejection and negation of what is  has swept through the world and most players in the systems have not yet understood the depth and the breadth of it.

 

This has focused people into thinking and plotting intensely their next round of moves within a highly polarized mental and emotional atmosphere. 

 

Regardless of sunspot numbers now, I expect heavy choppiness in all things human.  Sudden shifts, both good and ill, everywhere.

 

In early April I warned against moving too fast too violently in Iraq.  Indeed, the Military, to their command credit, altered their mood and response patterns to avoid extreme reactions and needless violence.

 

Now it is equally necessary to continue to avoid acting too rapidly.

The grunts being court-martialed in Iraq must be rapidly court martialed because that is essential to creating the trail we need to follow to OUT the CIA and DIA spook factory of grotesque psyop horrors.

 

Find them guilty of complicity but don’t be in a hurry to condemn the enlisted grunts.  They were guilty of obvious crimes against humanity.  But they were mostly following orders within a maelstrom of confusion. They probably didn’t know what else to do except follow orders.  And, so far as the “Geneva Convention” goes, it is mainly applied to the members of the command chain.  It was not commonly applied against the soldiers of World War II, mostly against the officers and bureaucrats.

 

So, it is far better to get a complete, voluntary debriefing from the grunts than cruel attempts to make them bear the brunt of the revulsion. To make them the main targets is to play into the hands of the spooks who set them up to take all of the flak.

 

AS STATED: Worldwide investigations have been launched.  The Chiefs of Staff and the high command of the various Armed Forces will learn (a) that the Defense Intelligence and CIA spooks have a lot of nasty “Proactive Aggression Dominance” doctrines in their little toolbox of clandestine horror, and (b) that the operations of the Armed Forces are “systemically” infected by this Fascist virus.

 

If the Army and Marine commands want to clean this virus up, they will have to completely rewrite “the book” about how they deal with all prisoners.  They should start at the basics with the doctrines which were established at the ends of World War I and World War II. Humanity was attempting to learn something from those terrible times and tried to codify wisdom into working doctrines.  They are far superior to any of the modern corruptions induced by atheistic professors of mental masturbation with no sense of higher purpose and value in universe. The professors and consultants should be fired and the armed forces should talk to spiritual leaders among all the great religions and movements in the world.

 

AND, THROUGHOUT THE NEXT FEW MONTHS, REALIZE THAT RUMSFELD MAY DESERVE THE HEAT, BUT HE IS NOT THE MAIN “FISH” IN THIS SCANDAL.  THE MAIN FISH IS SPELLED

 

C I A

 

AS STATED LAST WEEK:  GET RID OF CIA CHIEF TENANT.  HE IS A REAL CUTE PIECE OF DEVIOUS CAKE.  Lying to Bush, misleading his right wingnut fanatics with fake information, and permitting the development of torture techniques into artful methods which don’t leave evidence so that they can mystify how they “do their thing” and lie about it.

 

HOW MUCH OF WHAT IS REALLY GOING ON IN IRAQ TODAY DIRECTLY FLOWS FROM THE DEVIOUS DECEITFUL MANIPULATING LIEING WAYS OF THE CIA DIRECTOR AND HIS SENIOR STAFF?

 

Our problem is they do not have enough credibility to allow them or us to answer this question.  Tenant and cronies must go.

 

 

THE STRATEGIC SITUATION
For predictions related to the mess in Palestine, the Middle East, and the Bush political era, check out

http://www.michaelmandeville.com/earthmonitor/
ecbulletins/statusreports_political.htm#strategic

(watch the word wrap on the URL)

 

AS PREVIOUSLY REPORTED:  With baited breath a good portion of the world waits to see if an Iraqi government can be cobbled together to find enough international supports to allow the U.S. military to withdraw from Iraq.  The ever present fear is that the “bull in the teashop” will break enough in Iraq to animate an even larger uprising against the U.S. to force a stunning strategic withdrawal.  The fear is that this may stampede the U.S. to even greater depths of stupidity with “old Wartime” George at the helm.

 

Fortunately this past month has seen a thoughtful change in tactics out of the U.S. military chain of command IN THE FIELD.  As can be seen in Fallujah and now in Najef, the field military (not the Pentagon) has learned how to negotiate directly with people in Iraq.  The Army is actually negotiating political outcomes which are working to defuse the situations and bad apples.  As well, the field military (not the Pentagon) is outing the abuses imposed by the CIA spook factory and is taking up increasingly strong positions about what it needs and intends to do in Iraq and how.

 

God knows the U.S. needs this leadership in the field.  The U.S. Government is Washington DC is fatally afflicted with such stupidity it should be impeached immediately for incompetence and replaced with a committee of Great Grandmothers.  They would do a far superior job because they would be honest. 

 

More seriously, this rise of Army responsibility in the field is a highly important evolution in what has been a badly deteriorating situation.  It  moves us past the headtrips by politicos such as Bremer and the misbegotten crap which appears to be a frequent CIA product. Most importantly, it will avoid the right wing Imperialist garbage which Negroponte, the so-called new Ambassador to Iraq, is about to bring to Iraq.

 

IT MAY BE POSSIBLE FOR ENOUGH CONVERGENCE OF INTERESTS TO COME TOGETHER THROUGH ARMY FIELD EFFORTS, THE UNITED NATIONS, IRAQI SPIRITUAL LEADERS. AND IRAQI MODERNISTS TO UNITE ON THE COMMON GOAL OF EXTRICATING THE U.S. FROM OUT OF IRAQ AS SOON AS POSSIBLE. It may be possible to bring this together during the next six to nine months. 

 

THIS IS THE ONLY HOPE I SEE AT THE MOMENT.  IF THIS DOES NOT COME TO PASS, THE ARMY MAY BE FORCED TO WITHDRAW.

 

AS STATED - THE DRIFT:

 

Despite the upbeat tact which I am trying to make on the world level, conditions are highly dangerous. The American Empire is still disintegrating.  The worldwide consensus in the stability and benign intent of American policies has dissolved into widespread perceptions of gross incompetence, cronyism, corruption, bullyism, and needless brutalities despite the most advanced weapons systems and capabilities in the world.  Nominally friendly states are pulling aside and out of what they perceive as a fatal U.S. drift into a major loss in Iraq.  The best centrists, Kerry included, talk vainly of internationalizing the burden in Iraq. But this is utterly moot, they have nothing at all.  After the outing of the CIA Little Shop Of Horrors, which has only begun,

 

WE ARE ALL RADIOACTIVE AS FAR AS THE WORLD IS CONCERNED.  And we will ALL pay the karma.  Nobody but nobody is going to help us.  How do you feel about talking the hit for Rummy and his Century 21 approach to psyops and info wars?

 

Perhaps, if  we talk exclusively about getting rid of the Imperial Faction in a way which is so thorough there is no possibility they will be heard of again for a generation, or three, perhaps somebody from an another nation might offer encouraging noises.  But that is about it.

 

 It is up to us.  This tarbaby is who we are.

 

KEEP THIS IN MIND:

 

The Mideast enemies of Israel and the U.S. now fully understand that the U.S. is even more vulnerable than it was three years ago, does not have enough brains in political command to make decisive, creative political moves to build support and loyalty, and is so over-extended in Palestine-Iraq-Afghanistan that major losses can be inflicted on its men and equipment.  Thus, the insurgency in the Middle East, now here now there, is likely to break out again, seeking to deliver greater and greater tragedy to the Americans. With the “jaw-dropping” public destruction of the leadership of Hamas by Sharon, tens of thousands of operatives are now inevitably available to “the network”.

 

CHEERS!  BEST NOT TRAVEL TO THE MIDDLE EAST OR TO ANY MAJOR ISLAMIC NATION FOR AWHILE. AS ANNOUNCED,  KIDNAPPING IS THE NEXT COMING VOGUE TERROR TACTIC.  AFTER ALL, THE ONLY PEOPLE IN THIS DRAMA WHO DO WHAT THEY SAY THEY WILL ARE THE ALQAEDA OPERATIVES.  YOU MAY NOT LIKE IT, BUT THAT IS THE TRUTH.



Best Wishes, Michael Wells Mandeville,
The Hills of Arizona USA at ecb@michaelmandeville.com
Master Website Index is at: http://www.michaelmandeville.com

Author of  several books, including: "Return of the Phoenix" at
http://www.michaelmandeville.com/phoenix/phoenix.htm
and "The Coming Economic Collapse of 2006" at
http://www.michaelmandeville.com/calendar/collapse2006.htm
_________________________________________________
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