PHOENIX FIVE EARTH CHANGES BULLETIN

Monitoring The Changes In The Earth

edited by Michael Wells Mandeville copyright July 28 2004

                                                                                                             

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Please Note:  This Bulletin is conceived as a System.  It is still in an early stage of evolution.  We intend to progressively link into this synopsis system all of the major news feeds of Planet Earth which articulate aspects of the profound historical Change In The Earth which is underway.

 

 

 

Earth Changes Bulletin Update As Of July 28 2004

You have heard of the Weather Report?  Here exclusively is this week’s  "Earth Report" - a short review of the “big picture” about how the dynamic changes in the Sun and the Earth are effecting our lives more and more intensely, with the latest prognostications and predictions for weathermen, farmers, investors, businessmen, and every man.

 

 

You may click here for the full text of the Earth Changes Bulletin Update for this week, or use this  URL

http://www.michaelmandeville.com/earthmonitor/ecbulletins/2004/ecb_July_28_04.htm

 

EXCEPTIONALLY STRONG, RARE GEOMAGNETIC STORMS DRIVEN BY HUGE SUNSPOTS CONTINUE TO WALLOP THE SURFACE OF THE EARTH, CHAOS REIGNS IN THE ATMOSPHERE, WEATHER, AND THE MIND OF HUMANITY WHILE POLITICAL HOT AIR BALLONS RISE TO NEW RECORDS.

 

On the geophysical frontMORE THAN EVER, solar vortex forces in the Cosmos are UNPREDICTABLE.  Amazing everyone, sunspots peaked again as high as 130 on July 21.  Major sunspot and solar storm activity continues to be likely during the next several days.  Weather forces continue to accelerate in response and the Earth’s atmosphere is spinning in chaotic extremes.  A third of Bangledesh is under flood water, strange snows appear in some mountainous areas, and finally even the Southwest got some rain this week. New major planetary alignments in August and September will keep everyone guessing for the next couple of Months. But despite the turmoil from above, relative peace reigns below.  Volcanic activity is about the same as last week, mostly muting, and earthquake activity this week is insignificant except for a 6.4 quake in Papua New Guinea, which is no stronger to big quakes.

 

On the geopolitical front, the strange year is now marching rapidly to a conclusion in the U.S. National Elections. The Democrats have in fact raised up one of the largest Hot Air Balloons of all times, calling the faithful to their traditional mantras and prayers on behalf of the “Great American Dream”.  Wouldn’t it be wonderful if they actually could achieve some consensus to actually create some of the means for delivering on their promises?  On this question Americans will be deeply torn between the two sides of their nature, the wellspring of eternal hope on the one side and the despair of cynicism on the other. A cynic does not vote, a fearful cynic votes for the Nouveau Reich State of Fuhrer Bush, and those who dare to risk some hope despite the best advice of their own cynicism, will try to vote for Kerry.  Yet even if Kerry should win, how can he govern?  The Republicans will continue to control enough of Congress to stalemate the best efforts of the Democrats.  And there, THERE, is the rub.  The Democrats do not have enough of a true party to create a majority government, which leaves the money of the Special Interests, the Plutocracy, twisting in the air as poisen bait for every mischief.

 

Go to detailed synopsis…

 

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NOTES

Grayed items are not yet operational

 

PREVIOUS
WEEKLY

UPDATES

 

July 28, 2004

July 21, 2004

July 14, 2004

July 7, 2004

June 30, 2004

June 23, 2004

June 16, 2004

June 9, 2004

June 2, 2004

May 26, 2004

May 19, 2004

May 12, 2004

 

 

Program Thesis:

What are we trying to do with the Earth Changes Bulletin?

Most news media do not handle technical and scientific subjects like geology and earth sciences very well.  They don't understand the causes and effects of activities in the Sun and Earth.  Accordingly, they often do not understand if, when, how, why to report earthquakes, volcanic activity, global warming effects  The treatment often sounds absent-minded, poorly qualified, and frequently contains various technical errors.  Seldom is the treatment entertaining and genuinely educational.

Based on new scientific principles which have emerged during the past thirty years, many of the dynamic activities of the Sun and Earth can be linked together to see how a range of effects are linked together.  This makes it possible to paint "the big picture" into a perspective which explains many diverse events and processes, especially climate and weather patterns such as global warming and El Nino. From the "big picture", long range predictions can be made for weeks and even months ahead.  The result is sophisticated cutting-edge information which is objective, balanced, astute, relevant, and can be easily seen and appreciated by lay audiences.  The perspective is generally global, seldom parochial. For the framework of concepts, terms, and current conditions which are used or described in the these Bulletins, see the Earth Changes 2003 Almanac Calendar.

 

To see the internet resources which are used to prepare this Update, take a look at the Earth Monitor front page - http://www.michaelmandeville.com/earthmontor/

 

 

 

 

SPONSORING:

THE COMING ECONOMIC COLLAPSE OF 2006, which puts today, tomorrow, and the trends together into the Cayce 25 year economic cycle which will “bottom” in 2006/2007.  Click here to download

 

THIS BOOK STILL COOKS AND IT WILL COOK THE POLITICIANS AND THE ECONOMY ALL THE WAY THROUGH TO 2008:  This synthesis is far ahead of the daily digests in all halls of the internet media: so far (since may 2003) the track record on this set of predictions for 2003-2008 is running 100 per cent.  If you have not purchased this book, you will remain ignorant of the main dynamics which are rapidly changing everything. 

 

LATEST UPDATE NOTE AS OF JULY 21, 2004 – Several important  economic factors and/or indicators are now declining – IF TWO MORE MONTHS OF DECLINES ARE FOUND IN THE KEY FACTORS,  IT WILL BE MORE PROBABLE THAN NOT THAT THE DJI HAS PEAKED AND IS NOW HEADED PROGRESSIVELY DOWN.  ACCORDINGLY, SEPTEMBER 2004 WILL REVEAL WHETHER THE 25 YEAR ECONOMIC DECLINE HAS FINALLY HIT.  IF THE MESSAGE IS “YES”, the Kerry-Edwards ticket most likely will win decisively and the Republican control of Congress most likely will be “cracked”.  But there is room for considerable movement in all positions among large numbers of people and it is clear that many events in this fast-paced, unpredictable year could deflect ALL expectations.

 

LATEST UPDATE NOTE AS OF JUNE 30, 2004 – Conditions appear to be settling down and stabilizing, which is about the only thing which can happen in the dog days of High Summer, especially in hot arid desert regions with little to poor air conditioning.  As people vacation escape or stay in place to survive, all the contradictions, struggles, and violence will appear to abate and this will give Bush’s Imperial Faction the appearance of being on a roll with some momentum, but people will be too busy elsewhere to notice.  Things will “cook” on the back burner until September.  Until then, all markets and equities will flat line after a little spurt of minor adjustments from the sorcery of Greenspan’s interest rate increase.  During the Fall, to make up for lost time, many pots will boil over in all directions on all topics.

 

LATEST UPDATE NOTE AS OF JUNE 16, 2004 – The loss of confidence in the U.S. is still in an early stage.  The next six months will be the most difficult period since the Vietnam tragedy – and indeed it is likely to surpass anything which has emerged since the 1930’s.

 

LATEST UPDATE NOTE june 9, 2004 – no change since this note of  MAY 12, 2004:   As discussed this week and herein, the Collapse 2006 schedule, more likely than not, is currently accelerating as a result of worldwide loss of confidence in the elementary competence of the united states government at the highest levels.

 

 

 

 

 

HOUSEKEEPING

 

MANDEVILLE IS ON THE RADIO EVERY WEDNESDAY WITH

Alex Merklinger (Millennium Radio) show at 6 PM Arizona Time (also 6 PM Pacific Daylight Saving Time).   Regular Weekly Update For The Earth Changes Bulletin.  To find Iway archives and stations, see Millennium Radio Network

 

 

 

Begin Synopsis

 

 As stated in the “Coming Economic Collapse of 2006”, the nature of human politics reflects the communication abilities of the human species.  As we transform the media, as we have been on the Iway, we will transform human politics and the entire Earth.  Making the way for the New Earth is operationally equivalent to making a new Media on the Iway. Not that that is all that there is to it.  Not by a long shot…but IT IS one of the essentials we need to dissolve the blockages and dance around the tyrannies.

 

 

SPIRITUAL WATCH

How to converge and express the spirit of mass transformation into manifestation, HOW to be, IS the question. How to do is the praxis of the time.  Examining this question, probing it, is the chief trendline of this year.

TRANSISTION CONTINUES…EVERYTHING IS WORKING OUT DIFFERENTLY THAN PEOPLE ARE CURRENTLY FEARING OR PROJECTING.

 

KEEP FLOWING WITH THE RISING TIDE OF SPIRITUAL ENERGIES WHICH ARE FILLING MANY THIRSTY SOULS.  THE OLD PATTERNS ARE FALLING AWAY. 

 

In a short while, some will come forth giving witness to a great energy which has come into their lives, literally, as if the hand of God was upon them.  This is becoming more and more apparent and these words will have greater meaning by the end of the year.

 

Did you notice the number of Black Ministers preaching social justice at the Democratic National Convention?  God has become socially acceptable in Democratic politics and the door for a spiritual transformation of American politics HAS NEVER BEEN MORE OPEN. 

 

I believe I see that secular materialism is on the way out and impersonal 20th century academic sociopsych-quack is on the way out. Meaning and purpose within a higher being are on the way in.

 

 

 

 

The “Great Purification” predicted by the Hopi, Maya, Q’ero, and many others continues.  How amazing that these ancient oral traditions could tune into last year and this one to advise us that this was a period of profound historical turning involving

The Great Purification

of the Earth? For additional discussion, see the commentary of May 19, 2004 and the commentary of June 16, 2004.

 

THE NEW BASIS IS GESTATING….

THE time to link the spiritual communities of the Earth. The Whole Earth. IT HAS BECOME URGENT TO LINK THE SPIRITUAL COMMUNITIES WITHIN A BROAD MOVEMENT WHICH PROVIDES NEW CURRENTS OF SPIRITUAL LEADERSHIP.

 

 

FOR THE MOST PART: Steady as she goes. A slow acceleration in the shifting of the poles has been underway for perhaps the past 100 years and the last three decades has shown an increase in the rate of acceleration.  This has appeared to accelerate even more during the past decade.

 

 

POLAR MOTION

What is happening to the motion of the Earth. For the overall summary of the status of polar motion CLICK HERE.  To see the current graphs of polar motion, CLICK HERE. Scroll down the page until you get to the black and white graphs with show the x and y coordinates of the North Spin Axis on two separate graphs.

 

AS OBSERVED LAST WEEK:  We have passed the “Y Max” last week. Y Max is the point in the spiral track of the North Spin Axis when it is moving as far to the left on the XY chart of polar motion which is maintained by the IERS agency in France.  “Y Max” is where the North Spin Axis is titled as far as it can go towards North America down Longitude West 90.   The motion towards “Y Max” may have caused the increased movement of the North American Tectonic Plate to produce the interesting quake activity of the previous weeks. If so, more probably than not we will see a similar pattern re-emerge at some point during the next two weeks, probably during the next Full Moon on July 31.  As the Spin Axis begins its return towards the X Axis, the seismic activity may mirror what happened as it was moving outwards.  If so, I will show this on a graph to explain it greater detail.

 

http://maia.usno.navy.mil/xplot2.gif

 

http://maia.usno.navy.mil/yplot2.gif

 

 

 

 

MAGNETIC POLES – SHIFTING

What is happening to the magnetic fields of the Earth.  No real change during the past year:  a magnetic pole shift is not something to be very concerned about within this decade at least.

 

THE TWO HUGE GEOMAGNETIC STORMS THIS WEEK MAKES ONE A BELIEVER IN THE AWSOME POWER OF THE MAGNETISM AND ELECTRICITY IN THE SOLAR SEA TO PROFOUNDLY EFFECT ALL LIFE.  As waves on the “magnetic sea” break upon the shore of the Earth, the forces can shift everything around, including our cellular activities, bringing disorientation to humans as well as birds…

 

Rarely do we notice the “magnetic sea” but the huge breakers this week, equivalent to 100 foot waves or 8.0 earth quakes, have given us some important experiences.  Many people reported exceptional difficulties or oddities at all levels.  For me it took the form of incomplete meditations and immense weariness, a virtual spiritual impotence. For the APS Electricity Utility in Arizona (the main source of power in the state) it took the form of a near meltdown of their grid.

 

 

 

Asteroids

As of June 04,

NASA’S

ESTIMATE:

“Potentially Hazardous Asteroids (PHAs) are space rocks larger than approximately 100m that can come closer to Earth than 0.05 AU. None of the known PHAs  (asteroids) are on a collision course with our planet, although astronomers are finding new ones all the time.”

 

 

PLANETS & ALIGNMENTS
(all time coordinates here and elsewhere are in UTC unless otherwise noted, dates for planetary alignments are derived from Home Planet Software using PC graphics, due to limitations of software and graphics display, actual timing may be off as much as three days, for scientific work, use a professional ephemeris for exact dates).  For background and the current information on planetary alignments go to the Earth Changes Almanac Calendar.  The Almanac lays out the planets and the lunar phases for entire year in advance to allow you to find the best and worst periods of weather, earthquake activity, ethereal “lunar” influences, etc.  

 

A new almanac is being constructed.  It will be up very soon and I will post url  in a day or so.

 

THE MOON

 

We are in Lunation #1010.  The Moon this day is now South of the Equator (in its South Node) 11 days past the last New Moon.  It is now approximately 363,306 KM from the Earth. It is already 88% of the Full Moon (visibility).  The next Full Moon is July 31 at 18:06 UTC.  The next New Moon is August 16 2004 at 1:24 UTC.

 

THIS FULL MOON SYZYGY SHOULD BE A POWERFUL ONE SINCE THE MOON IS STILL SO CLOSE TO THE EARTH.

 

(Perigee = the Moon’s closest approach to the Earth during its monthly orbit which increases gravitational influence of the Moon by as much as 15%; Apogee = the Moon’s greatest distance from the Earth during its monthly orbit).   (Berkland has a more complex formula for syzygy and his dates are often different.)  For details see the Syzygy website.

 

THE NEXT PLANETARY ALIGNMENTS

 

We are in the throes of an unusual set of planetary alignments. Venus is in close alignment with Uranus, Earth is forming up an alignment with Neptune, and Mercury is aligning with Pluto, all three of these alignments within the same quadrant of the Solar System.   The major portion of the sunspot rise for these alignments have already occurred but we will probably see a new peak at any moment as Mercury moves past Pluto and approaches to form up a dyad with Venus to pull solar activity towards the Earth | Neptune alignment on August 3.  From August 3 to September 8, the three closest inner planets will be in very close angles to each other.  Mercury will align with Earth on August 23 and with Venus on September 8 to finish up a tempestuous season of what will probably be exceptional solar activity.

 

AS PREVIOUSLY OBSERVED: The next alignment season for the planets is during the last week of July. Beginning about July 24, a progression of three different alignments involving different pairs of planets will occur within a few days of earth other.  The following chart from the Home Planet Software displays these alignments, beginning with Venus | Uranus, then Earth | Neptune, followed immediately by Mercury | Pluto. During early August, of course, Mercury will go on to align once again with Earth and Venus.  To decipher which planet is which, count the orbital rings if you do not know the signs. Mercury is 1 closest to the Sun, Venus is 2, Earth is 3, Mars is 4, Jupiter is 5, Saturn is 6, Uranus is 7, Neptune is 8, Pluto is 9, and Niburu is bogus.

 

Heliocentric View of Solar System as of July 27, 2004
by Home Planet Software

 

Heliocentric View of Solar System as of July 27, 2004

 

 

PLANETARY ALIGNMENTS FOR THE NEXT 10 MONTHS

 

A list of planetary alignments follows below.  These will all be listed on the Calendar in a few weeks.  For the next 10 months, four particular periods stand out for their potential to induce major reactions in the solar atmosphere and pull out huge ionic storms, high sunspot counts, and major effects on the Earth’s weather.

 

The Summer Knot  July 27 through September 8

 

Major ups and downs in the sunspot counts, at least three major storm fronts betwixt now and September 15 or so.

 

The Triple Whammy September Surprise September 28, 2004 - October 1, 2004

 

Mercury | Mars | Jupiter in a triple alignment

Spots peak about the Fall Equinox and Weather turns into chaos by about October 1, followed by extreme Fall flooding by the middle of October in the usual places.

 

The Apogee Six Way Cluster Bomb

 

At or near the Earth’s Apogee (closest approach to the Sun) Mercury will once again align progressively with the inner planets during a 30 day period.  Expect an INTENSELY STORMY WINTER.

December 30, 2004  Mercury | Jupiter
Venus and Mars still close and Earth near Saturn alignment
January 13, 2005  Mercury & Mars close couple to
Venus | Pluto and Earth | Saturn
January 27, 2005  Mercury | Venus with Pluto close couple

The Spring Grand Alignment

Jupiter | Earth | Mercury | Sun | Venus

 

Beginning by about March 7, at least major peaks in the sunspot count should produce three major waves of early Spring storm fronts.  The largest peak should form up about the Spring Equinox and the largest storm front should blow in about the time of the Grand Alignment

 

March 14, 2005  Mercury | Saturn
Spring Alignments begin in three main spirals
March 21,2005  Mars | Pluto with a spiral forming in
Mercury | Earth | Jupiter and another in Venus | Uranus
March 30, 2005 Jupiter | Earth | Mercury | Sun | Venus
form a virtual straight line through the solar system with Mars and Pluto still closely coupled. Observers on Earth will only be able to physically see Jupiter rising on the Eastern horizon just after sunset and Saturn close to the Mid-heavens in the Western half of the sky. In the very early morning Mars and Uranus visible

 

Summer Ping Pong

 

June 7, 2005  Venus | Saturn with Mercury moving up in close alignment, followed on June 10 , 2005 with Mercury forming a triplet with Venus and Saturn as Earth couples with Pluto and
Mars | Neptune.  The timing of these alignments between these planets is not exact, the electromagnetic balances of the solar system will shift in a complex way, probably producing a number of ups and downs.

 

 

Heliocentric View of Solar System as of August 3, 2004
by Home Planet Software

 

 

 

 

LIST OF ALL ALIGNMENTS FROM AUGUST 2004 THROUGH MAY 2005

 

August 3, 2004

Earth | Neptune
Mercury Venus Earth Diamond
Uranus Neptune coupled

August 19, 2004  

Mercury | Neptune Literal
with Earth and Uranus coupled
August 23, 2004 

Mercury | Earth | Uranus (Neptune Couple)
September 8, 2004

Mercury | Venus
Most of the planets in general now begin breaking apart widely, the "Summer Knot" become  untied. From About September 10 onwards,  Mars and Jupiter will be in a slow forming virtual alignment

***September 28, 2004

***Mars is in near alignment with Jupiter as Mercury catches up to form a nearly a straight alignment with Mercury, within 5 degrees, with all other planets widely dispersed
***October 1, 2004

***Mercury | Mars | Jupiter perfected
October 20, 2004

Venus | Neptune and all others widely dispersed
October 28, 2004

Mercury | Pluto
November 16, 2004

Mercury | Neptune

November 21, 2004

Mercury | Uranus
December 3, 2004

Venus | Jupiter
December 10, 2004

Mercury | Earth
December 24, 2004

Venus | Mars
with Mercury coupling Jupiter
December 30, 2004

Mercury | Jupiter
Venus and Mars still close and Earth near Saturn alignment
January 13, 2005

Mercury & Mars close couple to
Venus | Pluto and Earth | Saturn
January 27, 2005

Mercury | Venus with Pluto close couple
February 12, 2005

Mercury | Neptune
February 17, 2005

Mercury | Uranus
February 27, 2005

Venus | Neptune
March 10, 2005

Venus Neptune
March 14, 2005

Mercury | Saturn
Spring Alignments begin in three main spirals
***March 21,2005

***Mars | Pluto
with a spiral forming in
Mercury | Earth | Jupiter
and another in Venus | Uranus
***March 30, 2005

***Jupiter | Earth | Mercury | Sun | Venus
form a virtual straight line through the solar system with Mars and Pluto still closely coupled. Observers on Earth will only be able to physically see Jupiter rising on the Eastern horizon just after sunset and Saturn close to the Mid-heavens in the Western half of the sky. In the very early morning Mars and Uranus visible

April 22, 2005

Mercury | Pluto
May 1, 2005

Pluto | Mars with a continual dispersal of the planets.  A few minor alignments form through to June 7.
***June 7, 2005

***Venus | Saturn with Mercury moving up in close alignment

June 10 , 2005

Mercury forms triplet with Venus and Saturn
Earth coupling Pluto
Mars | Neptune

 

 

 

 

 

PLANET WATCHING  

For background and the current information on observable planets.

 

 

 

 

 

SUNSPOTS

The events in the solar atmosphere which impact weather and climate patterns, the magnetic field and auroras, including forecasts for the week, month, and year ahead. CLICK HERE for background information.  

To follow the numbers below, click here to view the Solar Cycle 23 Chart. Or, get the data in a NOAA Table.

 

AS PREDICTED, HIGH COUNTS ALL WEEK.   As predicted, higher counts came and peaked at 130 on July 25. EVEN BIGGER COUNTS ARE COMING, PROBABLY, IN AUGUST.

 

As of July 27, the SUNSPOT count dropped to 66 with a falling Solar Flux of 123. The count could begin to rise at any time for the Mercury alignment with Earth in August

 

NO RELIEF IN SIGHT FROM THIS AMAZINGLY STRANGE AND INTENSE SUMMER

 

The Sun is still on a loooong tangent on its very slow way to the next Solar MInima.

 

Date         Flux  Sunspots  Area 

2004 07 21  172    162     2420     

2004 07 22  173    117     2070     

2004 07 23  165      86     2050     

2004 07 24  147    109     1730     

2004 07 25  145    130     1440     

2004 07 26  128    113     1230     

2004 07 27  118      66     1130    

Area:  total aggregate size of the sunspots

 

AS OBSERVED LAST WEEK AND AS SHOULD BE WATCHED ESPECIALLY THROUGH THIS AUGUST AND SEPTEMBER:  It is probably the huge variation of size which is currently driving the tremendous influx of “x” dimension energy, possibly scalar wave energy, which is effecting psychics and living creatures.  If so, we have a new variable to consider.  Up to now I have ignored size to keep the task of correlation easy and also within the same pattern as the correlations with the count in previous centuries.  But most likely, serious students need to examine the “area” variable and look for correlates.

 

 

 

 

SOLAR ACTIVITY

As reported by NASA/NOAA unless otherwise stated.  (Sudden surprises and huge storms are always possible even during sunspot minima periods such as the one we are currently headed into).

 

The Solar Wind was modest at 578.7 km/s this day while pushing a modest density of 0.2 protons/cm3”.   

 

There are no big coronal holes on the Earth-facing side of the sun today, but even so solar activity is still quite volatile as of today and likely to remain so DURING THE NEXT TWO WEEKS.  At the moment, sunspots appear to be declining in numbers again but probably not for long and the decline will probably not be very deep. One huge sunspot area will rotate out of view in two or three days but shortly after that another huge area will rotate into view from the other side of the Sun.  This coming area is known to produce huge flares and CME’s.  Overall potential for extreme solar storms driving extreme Earth weather is very high for at least the next two to three weeks.

 

The Fluxgate Chart at the University of Alaska (which measures magnetic disturbances in the Earth’s atmosphere created by solar winds and ion storms) has been pegged beyond the edges of the chart for much of the week.  These extreme fluctuations of course record the severe magnetic storms which have hit the Earth in two tremendous waves during the past 48 hours. (as of this time, about 2 PM Mountain time US). To see the Fluxgate moment to moment, CLICK HERE.

 

NASA PREDICTS: “A coronal mass ejection hit Earth's magnetic field on July 26th and sparked a severe geomagnetic storm.” During the next 24/48 hours, probability for an M-class solar flare is at 40% and for an X-class solar flare is at 10%, with a generally 5% to 45% probability for minor to severe geomagnetic disturbances during the next 24/48 hours, depending upon latitude (higher the latitude, higher the probability). 

 

Jan Alvestad reports:  “The geomagnetic field was minor to extremely severe storm on July 27. Solar wind speed ranged between 729 and 1005 km/sec under the influence of a CME. Solar flux measured at 20h UTC on 2.8 GHz was 118.1 (somewhat high due to a long duration M1 event). The planetary A index was 162 (STAR Ap - based on the mean of three hour interval ap indices: 164.0), making July 27 one of the stormiest days during solar cycle 23…At midnight there were 3 spotted regions on the visible disk. The solar flare activity level was moderate. A total of 8 C and 2 M class events were recorded during the day.  Region 10652 decayed further, however, M class flares are still possible (and will be until the region has rotated behind the northwest limb)… July 26-27: No obvious Earth directed CMEs observed.  Coronal holes…The northernmost extensions of a coronal hole (CH106) in the southern hemisphere were in a geoeffective position on July 25, however, no noticeable geomagnetic effects are likely due to the extreme CME related geomagnetic storm which began late on July 26.”

 

Jan Alvestad predicts:  “The geomagnetic field is expected to be unsettled to active on July 28 and quiet to unsettled on July 29-31.”  Alvestad also predicts a 20% to 60% probability of M or X class flares during the next 24 hours but no probability of new CME’s or coronal holes “

 

MONTHLY AVERAGES IN SOLAR CYCLE 23: (These numbers are reported by Jan Alvestad) Over all, the sunspot average count (ISSN) for February 2004 was 46.0. March 2004  was even higher with the ISSN average count at 48.9  April’s count was radically lower at 39.3.  The May 2004 average count of 41.5 was SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN in April.  June 2004 was higher still with an average count of 43.2.  Despite the high count for June, the average solar flux was progressively down for the year so far.

Quite obviously July’s average sunspot count will be higher than during preceding months.  Because of the next round of planetary alignments, August could also be higher than the predicted average sunspot curves (based on computer modeling of the Solar Sunspot Cycles).

 

 

 

 

WORLD WEATHER SUMMARY

Those who have been following the patterns have seen that the correlations between sunspot peaks and major storm fronts coming in off the oceans to track across the continents is roughly pretty good, sometimes very much exactly on the mark.  Accordingly, our “sloppycasts” (approximate continental weather patterns) this past few years have proven out to be fairly worthwhile.

 

STAND PAT ON LAST WEEK:  weather patterns are tweaked out into chaotic extremes which fit no averages or generalities.  Forget predictions, expect anything.

 

THIS CONDITION WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE SUMMER, CHAOS ALTERNATING WITH PERIODS OF CALMING.

 

EARTH WEATHER PREDICTION FOR THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS

(Northern Hemisphere) This “sloppycast” is based on sunspot counts, planetary alignments, and visual data shown on satellite and radar.

 

STAND PAT:  IS ANY PATTERN ANYWHERE NORMAL?  Nope.   I can’t keep up with and therefore won’t.  MORE OF THE SAME. Expect only chaotic conditions in the atmosphere this next two weeks.  No predictions will call the tune for any area.

 

 

EARTH WEATHER PREDICTION FOR SUMMER SEASON

(Northern Hemisphere) This “sloppycast” is based on sunspot counts, planetary alignments, and visual data shown on satellite and radar.

 

STANDING PREDCTION FOR THIS SUMMER:  The output of the Sun is currently too volatile and unpredictable.  Accordingly, expect 50% probability of anything. This is my last prediction related to general weather patterns for this summer.

 

SOUTHWEST CONDITIONS

This “sloppycast” is based on six years of living in the USA Pacific Southwest, the sunspot counts, planetary alignments, and visual data shown on satellite and radar.

 

Luckily, some monsoonal thunderstorms came into Arizona and the Southwest this past week. Three days of storms yielded about half on inch of sorely needed rain in Black Canyon City.  Not much, but thank God for anything.  Naturally, conditions varied significantly and were highly scattered from valley to ridge.

 

Still, in general, Arizona will probably have a lousy monsoon in most areas except for the Southern margin near Tucson.  More likely only the high elevations (above 5000 feet) will see much in the way of rain the next couple of weeks and this will be widely scattered, mostly brief Thunderstorm activity, as is the current condition.

 

The rain this week is likely the result of the collapse of atmospheric conditions after the collapse of the sunspot peak of July 21. There may well be clear skies now until after the next sunspot peak begins to collapse.  This is likely to take a week of so to develop.