PHOENIX FIVE EARTH CHANGES BULLETIN

Monitoring The Changes In The Earth

edited by Michael Wells Mandeville copyright December Day 8 2004

                                                                                                             

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Please Note:  This Bulletin is conceived as a System.  It is still in an early stage of evolution.  We intend to progressively link into this synopsis system all of the major news feeds of Planet Earth which articulate aspects of the profound historical Change In The Earth which is underway.

 

 

 

Earth Changes Bulletin Update As Of December 8 2004

You have heard of the Weather Report?  Here exclusively is this week’s  "Earth Report" - a short review of the “big picture” about how the dynamic changes in the Sun and the Earth are effecting our lives more and more intensely, with the latest prognostications and predictions for weathermen, farmers, investors, businessmen, and every man.

 

You may click here for the full text of the Earth Changes Bulletin Update for this week, or use this  URL

 

http://www.michaelmandeville.com/earthmonitor/ecbulletins/2004/ecb_Dec_8_04.htm

 

FOR THIS AMAZING GLOBAL WARMING YEAR

 

On the geophysical front,  SOLAR  activity continued to slowly abate this past seven days and yesterday’s Sunspot Count fell steeply to 26 while the Solar Flux is sinking through 90 despite the coming Mercury | Earth alignment on December 10.  THIS MEANS DECEMBER’S WEATHER (AND HUMAN EMOTIONS) ARE MAINLY GOING TO BE GEOPHYSICAL, NOT SUNSPOT PERTURBED INTO EXTREMES.  El Nino REMAINS currently NOT on the way and the North Pacific is STILL returning to normal, which will permit the jet stream to return to normal – time now to get your weather forecasts strictly from your weathermen. From below during the past seven days, the Earth suddenly became sedate (finally conforming to a non-syzygy window) except for another 6.8 quake in Hokkaido Japan near where the previous major quakes struck in preceding weeks.  Volcanism simmered and mostly declined slightly except for a major eruption on Manam near Papua, which forced the complete evacuation of Manam Island, some 9 thousand people, while the Philippines were hit with probably the last major killer storm and floods of 2004, forcing thousands of people out of their homes.

 

LATE BREAKING NEWS EVE. DEC 8:  Sunspots climbed again to 38 while the Flux sank to 82 on December 8.  Probably the sunspots are not going to continue to increase by much and then will quickly decline to practically nothing.

 

On the geopolitical front, The truly bad news remains, the Bush Imperial Faction is currently well on the road to having seized complete control over the U.S. government while reducing most of the major Democrats in Congress (those who belong to the Democratic National Leadership Council) to the status of completely neutered House Pets.  While conning Congresswoman Nancy Polosi (California, Democrat –Ranking Minority Leader) to aiding and abetting the seizure of all government intelligence assets by Bush and his appointee, Porter Goss, a Skull and Bones Yale Classmate of George Herbert Walker Bush, who of course is the man to whom all the webs of intrigue and international scandal during the past 45 years eventually lead, beginning with Zapata Oil and the assassination of JFK.  The main failure in their seizures and sacking of potential opponents likely will be Kofi Annan, U.N. Secretary General, who by default is being strongly supported by many other countries as a way of staring back down into Bush’s face. His penchant for cutting comments critical of U.S. policies and actions will continue most likely to be a bone stuck in the craw of the Imperial Faction. But this is an inconvenience which they will learn to love because it will provide them with “proof” of the uselessness and corruption of the U.N., all the better to hire up more U.S. jackboots to teach additional nations of heathens their lessons.  But under all this planning and arrogance, the world is beginning to puke with the Canadians at the visage of George Bush strutting down his staged ramps into a sea of uniformed men. And Votescam 2004 continues to fester, quite possibly the poison in the Washington DC well for the political establishment.  Ironically, it may bring down the Democrats as well as the Republicans, but that is a long story…

 

 

Go to detailed synopsis…

 

 

 

This hidden column on the right  is available for links, banners, and icons of Earth Changes Bulletin subscribers who have made their annual donation.  Inquire by sending query for exact procedure by sending a REPLY to the Earth Changes Bulletin weekly email update.  YOU MUST HAVE BEEN SUBSCRIBED FOR AT LEAST 30 DAYS TO QUALIFY (or a previous subscriber).. 

 

NOTES

Grayed items are not yet operational

 

 

 

Program Thesis:

What are we trying to do with the Earth Changes Bulletin?

Most news media do not handle technical and scientific subjects like geology and earth sciences very well.  They don't understand the causes and effects of activities in the Sun and Earth.  Accordingly, they often do not understand if, when, how, why to report earthquakes, volcanic activity, global warming effects  The treatment often sounds absent-minded, poorly qualified, and frequently contains various technical errors.  Seldom is the treatment entertaining and genuinely educational.

Based on new scientific principles which have emerged during the past thirty years, many of the dynamic activities of the Sun and Earth can be linked together to see how a range of effects are linked together.  This makes it possible to paint "the big picture" into a perspective which explains many diverse events and processes, especially climate and weather patterns such as global warming and El Nino. From the "big picture", long range predictions can be made for weeks and even months ahead.  The result is sophisticated cutting-edge information which is objective, balanced, astute, relevant, and can be easily seen and appreciated by lay audiences.  The perspective is generally global, seldom parochial. For the framework of concepts, terms, and current conditions which are used or described in the these Bulletins, see the Earth Changes 2003 Almanac Calendar.

 

To see the internet resources which are used to prepare this Update, take a look at the Earth Monitor front page - http://www.michaelmandeville.com/earthmonitor/

 

The Bulletin is written in Arizona (UTC +8 hours) so any relative references, such as “Today”, or “Tomorrow”, or “Yesterday” should generally to taken to refer to the day spans as experienced in Western North America.

 

 

 

PREVIOUS
WEEKLY

UPDATES

Nov 24 not available as of this date

 

December 8, 2004

December 1, 2004

November 24, 2004

November 17, 2004

November 10, 2004

November 3, 2004

October 27, 2004

October 20, 2004

October 14, 2004

October 6, 2004

September 29, 2004

September 22, 2004

September 15, 2004

September 8, 2004

September 1, 2004

August 25, 2004

August 18, 2004

August 11, 2004

July 28, 2004

July 21, 2004

July 14, 2004

July 7, 2004

June 30, 2004

June 23, 2004

June 16, 2004

June 9, 2004

June 2, 2004

May 26, 2004

May 19, 2004

May 12, 2004

 

 

SPONSORING:

THE COMING ECONOMIC COLLAPSE OF 2006, which puts today, tomorrow, and the trends together into the Cayce 25 year economic cycle which will “bottom” in 2006/2007.  Click here to download

 

THIS BOOK STILL COOKS AND IT WILL COOK THE POLITICIANS AND THE ECONOMY ALL THE WAY THROUGH TO 2008:  This synthesis is far ahead of the daily digests in all halls of the internet media: so far (since May 2003) the track record on this set of predictions for 2003-2008 is running 100 per cent.  If you have not purchased this book, you will remain ignorant of the main dynamics which are rapidly changing everything. 

 

LATEST UPDATE NOTE AS OF DECEMBER 8, 2004: The dollar has firmed up for the short term.  Oil prices are definitely down, perhaps through this month, but the price could rise again fairly soon in January.  Meanwhile, Christmas is proving out to be a flat performance – not sour but not anything to write home about .  This will keep stock values at current prices with a sag due in January.

 

LATEST UPDATE NOTE AS OF DECEMBER 1, 2004:

As stated November 17, no change except to add that the erosion of the dollar is now accelerating and there is a nearly universal feeling among the watchers and managers that the euro is going up as the dollar sinks yet more to adjust for the terrible imbalances in the American economy created by its profligate, highly spoiled scions who lust after Empire.

 

LATEST UPDATE NOTE AS OF NOVEMBER 17, 2004:

As per stated below, the bubble is re-inflating for a few more weeks or even months if Al Qaeda does not attack.  Oil prices are dropping as stocks and equities firm up and the economy continues expansion with the expectation that American Imperialism will continue (unfortunately) to drive international events during 2005. BEWARE SUDDEN REVERSALS WHEN ALQAEDA STRIKES.  BEWARE THE EMERGING SUPER-COALITION IN EURASIA WHICH WILL PROGRESSIVELY UNDERCUT THE AMERICAN DOLLAR DURING 2005, GENERALLY IN A MEASURED WAY WHICH AVOIDS SUDDEN PANIC.  This is not a hostile action, it is a sensible reaction of the world to the vast over-reach of America’s Imperial Pretenders. This will produce a strong trend of basic price inflation in the U.S. as basic material commodity prices and the cost of imported goods continue to rise. The world WILL solve the Balance of Payments problem, mainly by raising the dollar costs of imports beyond the means of Americans to purchase them.

 

LATEST UPDATE NOTE AS OF NOVEMBER 3, 2004: 

On all economic fronts, hang tuff. The bubble will hang in there for a little while longer even if it is currently sagging under the high oil prices.  Oil prices will come down this Winter and the rebuilding boom in the SE section of the country will keep the economy firm.  Stocks will go back up with the decline in oil prices and so will the value of the dollar. All long term projection for the collapse in 2006 is still right on target. The main proviso in all things is Al Qaeda.  The re-election of Bush will, more probable than not, bring Osama Bin Laden to order another major round of terrorist attacks against the U.S. with in a few weeks.  Such attacks will likely have a major negative impact on the U.S. economy.

 

 

 

 

 

 

HOUSEKEEPING

 

MANDEVILLE IS ON THE RADIO EVERY WEDNESDAY WITH

Alex Merklinger (Millennium Radio) show at 6 PM Arizona Time (also 6 PM Pacific Daylight Saving Time).   Regular Weekly Update For The Earth Changes Bulletin.  To find Iway archives and stations, see Millennium Radio Network

 

ALL DATES AND TIMES USED IN THE EARTH CHANGES BULLETIN ARE NOW UTC = Universal Time Constant, previously known as Greenwich Mean Time.

 

 

Begin Synopsis

 

 As stated in the “Coming Economic Collapse of 2006”, the nature of human politics reflects the communication abilities of the human species.  As we transform the media, as we have been on the Iway, we will transform human politics and the entire Earth.  Making the way for the New Earth is operationally equivalent to making a new Media on the Iway. Not that that is all that there is to it.  Not by a long shot…but IT IS one of the essentials we need to dissolve the blockages and dance around the tyrannies.

 

 

SPIRITUAL WATCH

How to converge and express the spirit of mass transformation into manifestation, HOW to be, IS the question. How to do is the praxis of the time.  Examining this question, probing it, is the chief trendline of this year.

 

NO CHANGE THIS WEEK FOR THE REMAINDER:

 

UNDERTAKE A RESOLUTE FOCUS

 

WALK AWAY FROM THE COMING WARS AND THE LEADERS WHO ARE PUSHING US INTO THE WARS OR INTO THEIR INDIRECT SUPPORT. 

 

UTTERLY REFUSE THEM IN EVERY WAY THAT YOU CAN.

 

A great turning towards peace is underway in the hearts and minds of a great mass of humanity,

 

REGRETFULLY, A LARGE PROPORTION OF THE AMERICAN PEOPLE ARE STILL SOUND ASLEEP UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF UGLY EMOTIONS AND A THOUSAND NIGHTMARES OF SELF-DOUBT AND ACUTE DENIAL OF SELF-WORTH.  IT APPEARS THAT AT LEAST A THIRD OF THE POPULATION IS BARELY ABOVE AN EMOTIONAL AGE-LEVEL OF 8 AND CAN OFFER LITTLE MORE THAN SERVING AS FASCIST FODDER.

 

Accordingly, America will remain under the thrall of lies and conceits while  the merchants of dominance, hate,  revenge, empire-building, violence, and conquest crow even more loudly on the world stage. 

 

But even as they initiate to undertake a great militarization of North America for an ambitious expansion of empire-building over the Arab oil producing states, a consciousness is gathering greater focus to dissolve away the entire Bush-Alqaeda continuum of absolutism and militarism and replace its brutalities with profound movement en masse towards peaceful solutions.

 

The gathering  movement did not wax strong enough to end the Bush Presidency, but perhaps the movement will never function successfully with the corrupted, archaic forms of the old United States.

 

Perhaps the movement has a greater destiny.  Look for it.  Greet it.  Nourish it with love.

 

BREATH FREE. Let go of everything which is disturbed, distorted, or weird.  Let go of everything which is forced, contrived, hidden, manipulative, and/or constrictive. Keep flowing with the rising tide of spiritual energies which are filling many thirsty souls.  The old patterns are falling away.  Transition continues. Embrace new relationships which are trying to form in your life if they are honest and straightforward and provide a new openness. Forget the fears of the unknown, embrace all that which lifts your life into the light of a greater understanding and relationship with the all.

 

EVERYTHING IS WORKING OUT DIFFERENTLY THAN PEOPLE ARE CURRENTLY FEARING OR PROJECTING.  IT WILL CONTINUE TO BE SO.  In a short while, some will come forth giving witness to a great energy which has come into their lives, literally, as if the hand of God was upon them.  This is becoming more and more apparent and these words will have greater meaning by the end of the year.

 

 

Don’t react, go to center, get clear, release, and grieve…the Fourth Age is dying rapidly now… much more rapidly than we thought, its institutions and identities are beyond saving… let it go, let go, get to center…flow into God, let God flow into you…don’t speculate, don’t analyze, don’t react to the shtuff…clear…clean out the past four years…we are now free to grieve the death of everything we detested…let it go…let it go…let it die.   As you re-center in God, find the realization that this is the final moment you have been waiting for to end your connections and involvements with the illusions and delusions of all that which has betrayed the divine within each and brought greed, war, and destruction over the Earth.

 

The destroyers belong to each other, this is now the final time of their fatal embrace.  Let them love their wars…they have greatly desired the bitter wines of their hatreds and violence, they have lusted greatly for their Armageddon, and they shall have it. 

 

The die has been cast with a thousand artifices and illusions.  With the excellence of its manner of casting,  God has delivered to you your own freedom from the delusions and spells of the Mass Sorcerers, indeed, from the entire age, if you will but realize it.  Clear yourself and your life to find now the sense of movement and direction to separate your life from the dying culture which is putrefying all around you. There is no saving it…as Buckminster Fuller observed many decades ago, the old order is never saved, the new order merely grows up around it to eventually takes its place.  So it will come to pass now in an intense period of vast change during the next twenty years.

 

 

 

The “Great Purification” predicted by the Hopi, Maya, Q’ero, and many others continues.  How amazing that these ancient oral traditions could tune into last year and this one to advise us that this was a period of profound historical turning involving

The Great Purification

of the Earth? For additional discussion, see the commentary of May 19, 2004 and the commentary of June 16, 2004.

 

THE NEW BASIS IS GESTATING….

THE time to link the spiritual communities of the Earth. The Whole Earth. IT HAS BECOME URGENT TO LINK THE SPIRITUAL COMMUNITIES WITHIN A BROAD MOVEMENT WHICH PROVIDES NEW CURRENTS OF SPIRITUAL LEADERSHIP.

 

 

FOR THE MOST PART: Steady as she goes. A slow acceleration in the shifting of the poles has been underway for perhaps the past 100 years and the last three decades has shown an increase in the rate of acceleration.  This has appeared to accelerate even more during the past decade.

 

 

POLAR MOTION

What is happening to the motion of the Earth. For the overall summary of the status of polar motion CLICK HERE.  To see the current graphs of polar motion, CLICK HERE. Scroll down the page until you get to the black and white graphs with show the x and y coordinates of the North Spin Axis on two separate graphs.

 

THIS WEEK AS LAST WEEK – NO CHANGE

 

THE PANCAKING OF THE X MAX PEAK WHICH WE OBSERVED LAST WEEK SEEMS TO BE DISSOLVING SLOWLY  (See the URL’s below for the xplot).   I EXPECT A STRONG, SHARP REBOUND, quite possibly in connection with the New Moon Perigee of December 12.

 

NOTE DEC 8 – The rebound has begun and shows sharp on the graph.

 

 I expect this rebound will produce AN EXCEPTIONALLY STRONG SEISMIC PERIOD.  (The sharper turning of the spiral wobble will produce more sudden shifts in the stress vectors of the Tectonic Plates and this is more likely to cause more sudden releases in the fault zones)

 

THE X WAVE MAX, which we are in for the current 14 month spiral track, HAS BEEN showing some pancaking (see the xplot links below).  Rather than a smooth bell-shaped curve, the X plot HAS BEEN currently plateauing.  The Earth is showing some hesitancy to continue the spiraling wobble and is favoring slightly a motion at a vector which is keeping the Atlantic Hemisphere pushing towards the North.  This is now apparently going to rebound during the next two weeks. 

 

KEEP IN MIND THAT THIS WATCH HAS BEEN SET TO LOOK EXACTLY FOR THIS TYPE OF DEPARTURE OF THE EARTH FROM ITS PREVIOUS SPIRALING WOBBLE TRACKS.  Seeing the slight tendency of the Atlantic Hemisphere to continue pushing to the North CONFIRMS THE DEDUCTION FOR THE PROJECTED AVALANCHE OF THE CRUST WHICH WAS CALCULATED IN THE “RETURN OF THE PHOENIX”.

 

In general, the Wobble Track is showing continued tightening of the Chandler’s Wobble Spiral, as should be at this time in its 7 year Wobble Cycle, and the track seems to be conforming with a continued acceleration in the rate of drift, but this can be by no means certain until this 7 year cycle is over.  In about two years we will be able to locate the minimum spiral of motion and then look for the average 7 year "location" of this past seven years for comparison with previous cycles.

 

http://maia.usno.navy.mil/xplot2.gif

 

http://maia.usno.navy.mil/yplot2.gif

 

 

 

o

 

 

MAGNETIC POLES – SHIFTING

What is happening to the magnetic fields of the Earth.  No real change during the past year:  a magnetic pole shift is not something to be very concerned about within this decade at least.

 

Currently, there is little of note.  Despite many claims, there are no apparent trends which will hold up to historical analysis of many different regions of the Earth.

 

 

 

 

Asteroids

As of June 04,

NASA’S

ESTIMATE:

“Potentially Hazardous Asteroids (PHAs) are space rocks larger than approximately 100m that can come closer to Earth than 0.05 AU. None of the known PHAs  (asteroids) are on a collision course with our planet, although astronomers are finding new ones all the time.”

 

 

PLANETS & ALIGNMENTS
(all time coordinates here and elsewhere are in UTC unless otherwise noted, dates for planetary alignments are derived from Home Planet Software using PC graphics, due to limitations of software and graphics display, actual timing may be off as much as three days, for scientific work, use a professional ephemeris for exact dates).  For background and the current information on planetary alignments go to the Earth Changes Almanac Calendar.  The Almanac lays out the planets and the lunar phases for entire year in advance to allow you to find the best and worst periods of weather, earthquake activity, ethereal “lunar” influences, etc.  

 

Daily Planet – click here for sheer artistic pleasure

Every day John Walker’s  (Home Planet Software) computer creates a new image of  hypothetical habitable planet, just one every day for the estimated 2 billion potential habitable planets in our Galaxy, which the Egyptians more or less named Nun, a mother Goddess from which all life flows.  Euro people nursery tales converted the name into the Milky Way.  http://www.fourmilab.ch/terranova/terranovag.html

 

Moon Perigee/Apogee/Phase Data  - click here to be always up to date

Earth/Moon Viewer by John Walker
http://www.fourmilab.ch/earthview/pacalc.html


Daily Solar System – click here to view Planet Alignments

The Home Planet software computes in real time the exact relative positions of the planets.  Go here to view today’s image of the solar system as seen from a heliocentric view (the sun in the center, you looking at the entire solar system as if it were a big pancake.  You can set any date and time.  You should generally ask the form to give you the “equal orbits” view so you can see all the planets.

http://www.fourmilab.ch/cgi-bin/uncgi/Solar

 

LUNAR PERIGEE/APOGEE/PHASE TABLE FOR THE REMAINDER OF 2004

                                             Distance

Apogee         30-Nov  11:26    405951 km        F+3d15h

Perigee         12-Dec 21:31    357985 km        N+  20h

New              12-Dec 1:29                

Full               26-Dec 15:07               

Apogee         27-Dec 19:16    406487 km        F+1d 4h

 

For 2005, see the August 25 EC Update

 

TODAY’S MOON

 

We are in Lunation #1013 and we are now 25 days past the New Moon of November 12 at 14:27 UTC.   As of December Day 8, the Moon this day is now deep into its South Node (orbiting South of the Equator).  It is now approximately 376,000 KM from the Earth. It is 13% of the Full Moon (visibility or phase) now waning rapidly into the New Moon of December 12.

 

 

SEISMIC SYZYGY WINDOWS

QUALIFER:  As we have seen at least three times this past year, most dramatically with the recent outbreak (Oct 23-26 2004) of large Earthquakes on the West side of Honsho Island (Japan), the Syzygy Window and Perigee principles DO NOT WORK CONSISTENTLY TO FORECAST AN INCREASE IN MAGNITUDE NOR FREQUENCY OF EARTHQUAKES.  Using strictly an intuitive view of the past 12 months, the rate of accuracy is definitely larger than random but probably not larger than about 70% for any given area.

 

The next strong seismic syzygy remaining for 2004 will be the New Moon of December 12 which will include Perigee within 20 hours.

 

For describing the peak danger period for the most damaging earthquakes. this Perigee syzygy I will define arbitrarily as

 

December 10 – December 15 – This syzygy should produce more seismic energy release (earthquakes) than during most of the other syzygies of the preceding year.

 

HOWEVER, AS WE HAVE OBSERVED DURING THE PAST 60 DAYS, the syzygy window concept has not worked very well to “contain” the major quakes.  THIS MAY BE BECAUSE OF THE “PANCAKE ANOMALY” we have observed during the past 60 days in the motion of the North Spin Axis (on the IERS Xplot).  This anomaly may be generating unusual stress on the Earth’s crust.  If so, the next 30 days could look like one extended syzygy window in terms of major earthquakes occurring in higher frequency than normal.

 

I DO NOT EXPECT CALIFORNIA TO BE UNSCATHED WITHOUT A MAJOR QUAKE.  IT WILL EVENTUALLY MIRROR WHAT HAS HAPPENED IN JAPAN DURING THE LAST 30 DAYS.

 

Jim Berkland, the originator of using syzygy to define the most active periods of seismic activity has a more complex method for computing dates and you may want to use his methods for greater precision.  For details see the Syzygy website  

 

(Perigee = the Moon’s closest approach to the Earth during its monthly orbit which increases gravitational influence of the Moon by as much as 15%; Apogee = the Moon’s greatest distance from the Earth during its monthly orbit).   (Berkland has a more complex formula for syzygy and his dates are often different.)  For details see the Syzygy website.

 

THE NEXT PLANETARY ALIGNMENTS

For any “Home Planet Software” charts of the planets which are shown here or through URLS which are provided on this page, you can decipher which planet is which by counting the orbital rings if you do not know the signs which denote the planets. Mercury is 1 closest to the Sun, Venus is 2, Earth is 3, Mars is 4, Jupiter is 5, Saturn is 6, Uranus is 7, Neptune is 8, Pluto is 9, and both Planet X and Nibiru are bogus.

 

LIST OF ALIGNMENTS THROUGH TO DECEMBER 21, 2004

 

At the current time the outer planets are widely distributed and no new alignments are forming up between them.  But now many new alignments will be forming up during the next two months mainly as a result of Mercury’s rapid rotation around the Sun, which enables it to catching up and pass by the planets about every three months.

 

Here are the three alignments during December 2004:

 

December 3  Venus | Jupiter  - NO MAJOR SUNSPOT PEAK

 

December 10  Mercury | Earth – NO MAJOR SUNSPORT PEAK

 

December 30, 2004  Mercury | Jupiter
Venus and Mars still close and Earth near Saturn alignment

BUSTED: So, consider December 1-15 the next sunspot peak prediction, with the next round of major ocean stormfronts rolling onto land from about December 10-20.  DID NOT HAPPEN AND SO THE SOLAR INFLUENCE ON DECEMBER’S WEATHER IS BECOMING MINIMAL.

 

ALSO BUSTED: An alignment of Venus | Jupiter on December 3 should prove productive of a new round of solar flares and sunspots.  But the December 10 alignment of Mercury | Earth should be even more potent.  A peak should have begun this last week of November for Venus and Jupiter and as of November 30, the sunspot count has begun to climb again, clearly in response to these planets.  These two alignments may result in one major large fat peak which should form up pretty much by December 5-10.

 

IT DIDN’T HAPPEN.  THE SUNSPOT COUNTS WOBBLED BETWEEN ABOUT 40 - 60 THE ENTIRE TIME – DEFINITELY A MINOR SET OF PEAKS.

 

IT LOOKS LIKE SOLAR CYCLE 23 IS DEFINITELY DEFLATING RAPIDLY AND IT LOOKS LIKE MOST OF THE PLANETARY ALIGNMENTS WILL NOW BE PRODUCING ONLY SMALL FLUCTUATIONS IN THE COUNTS, PROBABLY IN THE RANGE OF 10 – 60 FOR THE MOST PART DURING 2005.  This probably means that marine storm fronts will be driven less by solar induced atmospheric shifts and more by Earth’s geophysics and atmospherics.

 

CAUTIONARY NOTE:  MAJOR SUNSPOT PEAKS, BIG FLARES, CORONAL HOLES, AND POWERFUL CME’S WILL STILL OCCUR ONCE IN A WHILE, AS THE GRAPHS OF PREVIOUS SUNSPOT CYCLES DEFINITELY SHOW, BUT IT LOOKS TO ME THAT THESE WILL BE A LOT LESS PREDICTABLE THAN DURING THE PAST FOUR YEARS.

 

PLANETARY ALIGNMENTS FOR LATE DECEMBER 2004 – JUNE 2005

 

For late December through to June 2005,  four particular periods stand out for their potential to induce major reactions in the solar atmosphere and pull out huge ionic storms, high sunspot counts, and major effects on the Earth’s weather.

 

The Aphelion Six Way Cluster Bomb

 

At or near the Earth’s Apogee (closest approach to the Sun) Mercury will once again align progressively with the inner planets during a 30 day period.  Expect an INTENSELY STORMY WINTER.

 

December 30, 2004  Mercury | Jupiter
Venus and Mars still close and Earth near Saturn alignment
January 13, 2005  Mercury & Mars close couple to
Venus | Pluto and Earth | Saturn
January 27, 2005  Mercury | Venus with Pluto close couple

 

The Spring Grand Alignment

Jupiter | Earth | Mercury | Sun | Venus

 

Beginning by about March 7, at least major peaks in the sunspot count should produce three major waves of early Spring storm fronts.  The largest peak should form up about the Spring Equinox and the largest storm front should blow in about the time of the Grand Alignment

 

March 14, 2005  Mercury | Saturn
Spring Alignments begin in three main spirals
March 21,2005  Mars | Pluto with a spiral forming in
Mercury | Earth | Jupiter and another in Venus | Uranus
March 30, 2005 Jupiter | Earth | Mercury | Sun | Venus
form a virtual straight line through the solar system with Mars and Pluto still closely coupled. Observers on Earth will only be able to physically see Jupiter rising on the Eastern horizon just after sunset and Saturn close to the Mid-heavens in the Western half of the sky. In the very early morning Mars and Uranus visible

 

Summer Ping Pong

 

June 7, 2005  Venus | Saturn with Mercury moving up in close alignment, followed on June 10 , 2005 with Mercury forming a triplet with Venus and Saturn as Earth couples with Pluto and
Mars | Neptune.  The timing of these alignments between these planets is not exact, the electromagnetic balances of the solar system will shift in a complex way, probably producing a number of ups and downs in the sunspot count.

 

 

 

 

 

 

PLANET WATCHING  

For background and the current information on observable planets.

 

DON’T MISS IT!

NASA ON GEMINID METEORS: The best meteor shower of 2004, the Geminid meteor shower, peaks on Monday night, Dec. 13th. If you're outside during the hours around midnight, you could see dozens to hundreds of shooting stars. Click here to view predicted meteor rates for ten US cities.  IT SHOWS THE BEST TIMES!

 

NASA'S DATA ON NEAR EARTH ASTEROIDS: "Potentially Hazardous Asteroids (PHAs) are space rocks larger than approximately 100m that can come closer to Earth than 0.05 AU. None of the known PHAs are on a collision course with our planet, although astronomers are finding new ones all the time.”

 

On 1 Dec 2004 there were 653 known Potentially

Hazardous Asteroids (two more than last month).  For December 2004, NASA has listed two Earth-asteroid encounters ranging from 1.5 million to 2 million miles away (5 to 7 average Lunar distances).

 

2004 RZ164

Dec. 8

7 LD

2004 VW14

Dec. 24

5 LD

Notes: LD is a "Lunar Distance." 1 LD = 384,401 km, the distance between Earth and the Moon.

 

 

 

 

SUNSPOTS

The events in the solar atmosphere which impact weather and climate patterns, the magnetic field and auroras, including forecasts for the week, month, and year ahead. CLICK HERE for background information.  

To follow the numbers below, click here to view the Solar Cycle 23 Chart. Or, get the data in a NOAA Table.

 

The Sunspot Count has steadily dropped (with several small ups and downs) from 72 on November 24 down to 26 as of December 7 AND IS CURRENTLY HEADED DOWN.  The Flux has gradually DROPPED from about 110 down to 90 as of December 7 and it is still on a downward slope.

 

Date       Flux  Sunspots  Area

 

2004 12 01  111     52      450     

2004 12 02  106     62      470     

2004 12 03  101     58      450     

2004 12 04   97     43      280     

2004 12 05   96     46      230     

2004 12 06   93     47      230     

2004 12 07   90     26      100       

 

THE FAILURE OF THE PLANETARY ALIGNMENTS DURING THE FIRST WEEK OF DECEMBER SUGGESTS THAT THE AVERAGE COUNT FOR DECEMBER WILL BE THE LOWEST FOR ALL YEAR.  THIS WILL BRING SOLAR CYCLE 23 DURING 2005 VERY CLOSE TO ITS MINIMA WITH SUBSTANTIALLY LESS SOLAR ACTIVITY THAN DURING 2004.

MONTHLY AVERAGES IN SOLAR CYCLE 23
These numbers are reported by Jan Alvestad

Over all, the sunspot average count (ISSN) for February 2004 was 46.0. March 2004  was even higher with the ISSN average count at 48.9  April’s count was radically lower at 39.3.  The May 2004 average count of 41.5 was SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN in April.  June 2004 was higher still with an average count of 43.2. and July took as even higher to an average count of 51.  August’s count dropped the average to 40, which returns us to the point on the general curve which we reached during April 2004. The law of averages finally caught with the Sun during September.  For the first time all year, sunspot activity fell below the 32.8 predicted average monthly count and was only 27.7

October became a major anomaly.  The “smoothed” average count for October was predicted to be 32.5 but at 48.4 it  was dramatically higher, 21 points above September’s average. November continued the anomaly, but showed a decline to 43.7

December should continue this decline and may very well be the lowest count for 2004, bringing the curve back to the average.

Once again we are reminded that the Sun and its cycles are really not very “average” and not very “cyclical” or “regular”.  Nowhere can we find any evidence of an exact regularity, only constant variations.  The Sun is and probably always has been a vast cauldron of chaotic storms, electro-magnetic upwellings, and enormous explosions and sudden flares (or CME’s) which can extend out as far as even the outer planets, producing somewhat chaotic impacts on the planets.

All this makes exact predictions of solar activity far beyond the pale of human science, even with first class models of the electromagnetic gradients created by the planets and their orbital relationships.  From this it is easy to infer with considerable experience and conviction, that nothing on Earth can be foreseen, EXACTLY.  Just as some order is inevitable, so is some chaos built directly into the cosmos.

But even so the average count should drop during the next 12 months to a monthly low in the range of 10.  More and more, now and for the next half dozen years, the Sun will influence Earth’s atmosphere and weather less and less.  Global Warming and El Nino type of phenomena will be more and more influential compared to the solar input.  The geo-data we gather during the next three years about weather, climate, the Arctic, Antarctic, Drought Regions, etc. will be extremely valuable in telling us what the true long-term geo-trends really are.

 

 

 

 

SOLAR ACTIVITY

As reported by NASA/NOAA unless otherwise stated.  (Sudden surprises and huge storms are always possible even during sunspot minima periods such as the one we are currently headed into).  Descriptions and numbers are based on numbers as given by iway sources at about 1:00 – 3:00 PM Arizona Mountain Time (which does not have daylight savings time).

 

The Solar Wind was strong at: 459.1 km/s this hour while pushing a weak density of 0.8 protons/cm3”.   

 

Solar activity is on a descending curve.  For the last seven days, despite the planetary alignments of the first week in December, the Sun produced only small increases in sunspot counts, not much more than 25 spots or so over what was computed to be the ISSN monthly average for November.

 

THE OUTLOOK IS FOR VERY LITTLE ACTIVITY OVER THE RELATIVELY LOW LEVELS OF THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS.

 

Fluxgate Magnetometer:  The Fluxgate Chart at the University of Alaska (which measures magnetic disturbances in the Earth’s atmosphere created by solar winds and ion storms) is showing today five small magnetic disturbances each of an hour or two in duration DURING the past 36 hours.(as of this time, about 2 PM Mountain time US). To see the Fluxgate moment to moment, CLICK HERE.

 

NASA AURORA WATCH:  no forecast

NASA

 There are no large coronal holes on the Earth-facing side of the sun today.

 

NASA REPORTS:  “There are no large coronal holes on the Earth-facing side of the sun today.”

 

NASA PREDICTS:  5-20% probability of geomagnetic storms, 1% probability on coronal holes, CME’s, and M and/or X Class Flares

 

Jan Alvestad reports:  “The geomagnetic field was quiet to minor storm on December 7. Solar wind speed ranged between 423 and 553 km/sec under the influence of a coronal hole flow.

Solar flux measured at 20h UTC on 2.8 GHz was 89.7. The planetary A index was 15 (STAR Ap - based on the mean of three hour interval ap indices: 14.8)...The background x-ray flux is at the class B1 level...At midnight there were 2 spotted regions on the visible solar disk. The solar flare activity level was very low. No C class events were recorded during the day...December 5-7: No obviously Earth directed CMEs observed...”

 

Jan Alvestad predicts:  “The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to active on December 8-9 due to coronal hole effects and quiet on December 10-12.” Alvestad also predicts for the next 24 hours a 0-20% probability of coronal holes, a 0-20% probability of CME’s, and a  0-20% probability of M and/or X Class Flares.

 

 

 

 

 

WORLD WEATHER SUMMARY

Those who have been following the patterns have seen that the correlations between sunspot peaks and major storm fronts coming in off the oceans to track across the continents is roughly pretty good, sometimes very much exactly on the mark.  Accordingly, our “sloppycasts” (approximate continental weather patterns) this past few years have proven out to be fairly worthwhile.

 

IT CONTINUES:  For the U.S. West Coast and now the Rocky Mountains Plateau, extremely wet generally with lots of snow in the Mountains, much more on the way for a few days.  The same can be said for Northern Europe as the North Sea continues to pour marine air with huge cloud banks into the Baltic Area.

 

WITH THE DECLINE IN SUNSPOT ACTIVITY, WEATHER IS NOW MORE GOVERNED BY EARTH’S GEOPHYSICS.  SINCE I CANNOT FORECAST CONVENTIONAL WEATHER PATTERNS ANY BETTER THAN YAHOO WEATHER, OR THE WEATHER CHANNEL, I SUGGEST YOU GO THERE.

 

AM I RESIGNING FROM WEATHER FORECASTS?  ALMOST. THIS SECTION WILL ONLY ADD COMMENTARY ON POSSIBLE WEATHER DISTURBANCES WHEN MAJOR SUNSPOT PEAKS FORM UP.  THESE SHOULD BE MORE RARE THAN DURING THE PAST FOUR YEARS.

 

EARTH WEATHER PREDICTION FOR THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS

(Northern Hemisphere) This “sloppycast” is based on sunspot counts, planetary alignments, and visual data shown on satellite and radar.

 

Use the search engine at Yahoo Weather for your area.

 

EARTH WEATHER PREDICTION FOR FALL SEASON

(Northern Hemisphere) This “sloppycast” is based on sunspot counts, planetary alignments, and visual data shown on satellite and radar.

 

The next major solar sunspot induced storm fronts should appear just after the New Year in 2005. 

 

The unusually warm water in the North Pacific (Gulf of Alaska) now continues to dissipate.  The movement of air masses and weather should begin to “normalize” into the typical pattern seen for the various latitudes.  INDEED, THE WEATHER PATTERN OF THE LAST SEVEN DAYS HAS NEARLY NORMALIZED THE JET STREAM.  EVEN SO, IT IS PUSHING A LOT OF COLD WET AIR FAR DOWN INTO THE SONORAN DESERT PLAIN.  It was cold and wet or snowy in most of Arizona and New Mexico this past several days.

 

KEEP WATCHING FOR THIS PATTERN:  Global Warming could easily intensify the seasons, making a short bitterly cold Winter, longer intermediate stormy Spring and Fall seasons, and shorter but very hot and dry summers. Don’t we already see this pattern at work in the Northern Hemisphere?

 

SOUTHWEST CONDITIONS

This “sloppycast” is based on six years of living in the USA Pacific Southwest, the sunspot counts, planetary alignments, and visual data shown on satellite and radar.

 

LAST WEEK’S BAD CALL:  Continued lulling into mild, clear, mostly dry weather typical for this time of year for the next 7 to 10 days.

 

Nearly three inches of marine rain soaked much of the Southwest during the past week, snowing of course in the Mountains.  It usually does not get this wet in the Pacific Southwest until January. 

 

The past 60 days has clearly broken the drought pattern of the past four years.  You can see it in the plants and the atmosphere everywhere.  It “feels” wet here now even on a sunny day, which it rarely has during the past six years (that I have been here).  Some climatologists are arguing that this is an anomalous wet year for the Pacific Southwest and that the drought will reassert itself next year or the year after.  I am inclined to think that the drought in the Southwest is a product of both the Sunspot Cycle 23 and the Global Warming syndrome.  From this, I suppose that the drought pattern may be somewhat reduced during the next four years during the Sunspot Minima, submerged completely by a lot of rain during El Nino, if it appears, but slowly the drought will reappear during the next climb of sunspot counts during Solar Sunspot Cycle 24.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

EL NINO & LA NINA WATCH
The watch is now open again; Pacific water activity appears mostly normal, we are between the extremes of the ENSO; Click here for the NOAA window on the Pacific Ocean Temperatures:

http://www.cdc.noaa.gov/map/clim/sst_olr/sst_animated.gif

 

IT MAY NOT OCCUR.  NO PREDICTION ONE WAY OR THE OTHER IS POSSIBLE AT THE CURRENT MOMENT.

 

As of November 25, conditions for El Nino are still about the same as last week – very weak with no trend no active.

A large expanse of the Pacific Equator WAS warming up faster than normal and two nodes of considerably hotter than normal water could be seen forming up at about Long. East 170 and at about Long. West 90 (this near the Galapagos Islands).  THIS BUILD UP DECLINED FROM NOVEMBER 7 THROUGH 16 and then the temperatures remained about the same November 16-25.

 

AS REPORTED PREVIOUSLY – THE CLASSIC EL NINO – We do not at this point know whether an El Nino is in the offing for 2005.  Purely in accordance with the X Wave correlation which I discovered in the Vortex Tectonics Model,  AN EL NINO IS MORE PROBABLE THAN NOT IN 2005.  But, the El Nino is not like an astrophysical cycle.  There are some “missing” El Nino’s in the record of the 20th century and we may have a missing one.  HOWEVER, WE CAN’T BE CERTAIN UNTIL ABOUT APRIL OF 2005, which is about the latest month in which the syndrome has formed up during previous El Nino’s.

 

ADDITIONAL NOTE:  The year 2004 and/or 2005, in accordance with the 100 year X Wave Graph of the motion of the spin axis in Chandler’s Wobble, COULD BE EL NINO YEARS.   Graphs of various El Nino periods seem to show that the beginning of temperature build-up can occur as late as April of an El Nino year.  So 2005 may not be callable until early Spring 2005.

 

 

 

KEEP WATCHING THE ARCTIC,  ANTARCTIC, and the desert zones. These areas are the most objective front line observatories of the climate shift.

 

 

GLOBAL WARMING

It is becoming obvious that we have a long term real shift in the average temperatures and climate regions related to the latitudes.  This climate shift is creating a growing environmental disaster in the polar zones and in the desert-prone latitudes such as in the Pacific Southwest. For the latest short review, see Earth Changes Bulletin Update As Of May 26, 2004 and the Earth Changes Bulletin Update As Of August 18, 2004

 

NO CHANGE THIS WEEK

 

More or less, the Pacific Southwest will probably begin to face the bitter but essential facts of life on a “Global Warming Earth”.  More probable than not, global warming is inducing this current drought condition, which is about the worst drought in at least 400 years (which is estimated from the general life of the “old growth’ Ponderosa Pine which the drought continues to kill).

 

As the water tables continue to drop and especially as the Colorado River reservoirs continue to dry up, engineers and technical people are already discussing the huge impact a ‘water freeze” will have on the economics of the southwest.  It will mean no more permits for construction, for one thing, in the Sonoran desert, or in the Mojave, Las Vegas, etc.

 

More probable than not, the economics and politics of the Pacific Southwest will transition during 2005 into the new politics and economics of extreme water scarcity.

 

But, an El Nino next year, which is still very much a possibility, would most likely delay the transition for about 18 months.

 

When this transition begins, it will form up a terrible political war between the owners of the last significant unused aquifers of North America (the Hopi, Navaho, and Apache) and the crazy white man world of plutocratic real estate development corporations which dominate the political order in Arizona, Nevada, and Southern California.

 

AS PREVIOUSLY REPORTED ABOUT THE LIKELY IMPACT OF GLOBAL WARMING ON HURRICANES

 

For others comments on Global Warming,

 

Earth Changes Bulletin Update As Of August 25, 2004

 

For backgrounder information about Global Warming and how to look for it and correlate it to the real causes (solar influx and tectonic heat rifts in the bottoms of the oceans), see

 

Earth Changes Bulletin Update As Of July 14, 2004

 

 

 

 

 

IONIZING SOLAR ACTIVITY & MASS BEHAVIOR

 

As the sunspot counts decline and fail to peak for the planetary alignments, the impact on humans and the biosphere is declining progressively.  Relatively more human activity will tend to be more driven by mental activity and spiritual connectivity than emotional impulses.

 

This does not favor the Imperial Faction and the Sorcerers in the Mass Broadcast Smokescreen Industry.  The strength of the emotional associations which they rely upon to program mass behavior will have less and less power during the next four years.

 

This is going to be especially true with the four year jag of emotional associations around “patriotism”.  During 2005, patriotism and martial ardor will become increasingly  “old” among the young and the marginal.  More and more soldiers will wake up and realize they have been on a “bender” which left them in a literal hellhole.

 

 

 

 

 

EARTHQUAKES

Around the world to see the current and potential patterns of seismic activity, with coverage of the windows of danger.  Unless otherwise specified, all quake activity which is discussed is based on the USGS database charts and tables which list quake activity in excess of 2.0 mag. and above.  Unfortunately there are many lags in reporting of information about quakes, thus neither the numbers of quakes nor the actual quakes discussed may be complete and accurate.  Real time analysis of quake patterns is merely AN APPROXIMATION BASED ON INCOMPLETE INFORMATION.  FOR MORE QUAKE INFO RELATED TO SYZYGY WINDOWS, Jim Berkland calculates syzygy windows with considerably more sophistication than I do.  See Syzygy.com

Seismic activity declined in overall frequency and magnitude of earthquakes during the past seven days, after a large number of quakes (36 above 3.0 in mag) on Thursday, December 2.  All other days saw no more than about 10 and only one quake above 6.0 struck, a 6.8 in Japan.

 

Continuing the strong trends of November, a goodly portion of the world’s seismic energy above 3.0 for the last seven days, was expressed along the Western edge of the Pacific Ocean Tectonic Plate and along the edge of the Australian Tectonic Plate.  But quake activity was more widely scattered, striking Germany, Africa, Iran, and of course, the Americas, and many other places.

 

Shape-shifting produced only four modest quakes in the Great Rift of the Earth in the 4.0-5.0 magnitude. Only one struck along the Antarctic Plate this week, one struck the Northeastern end of Greenland, one struck the Mid-Atlantic Ridge near the Azores, and the fourth struck in the East Pacific Rift to the West of Chile.

 

All in all, a sedate Earth was shared by most, no clear patterns and no major activity, except the continued strong shaking of Japan, which is doubtless the weakest area on the surface of the Earth.

 

COSA NOSTRA DAMUS WATCH FOR SOUTH CAL.

 

AS PREVIOUSLY OBSERVED: according to the Cosa Nostra Damus Prophecy, a major destructive quake could now strike at any time in Santa Barbara, Santa Monica, Hollywood, the Van Nuys Valley region, Bakersfield, and anywhere along the escarpment of the San Bernardino Mountains. This will be a follow up to the 4.9 quake which was felt in Coos Bay Oregon during July 2004.  If a quake occurs near Santa Barbara, warnings will need to be given to Mexico City about the possibility of a major explosive event in Popo.

 

SLOW EARTH MOVEMENT WATCH

 

No reports to add this week

 

SHAPE-SHIFTERS WATCH

The quake activity in the Great Rift is one of the most important harbingers for the Earth Changes Watch to monitor. As the Earth’s crust adjusts its shape in response to gravitational and spin energy vectors, quakes in the Great Rift increase and tectonic activity all around the world increases. (Unless otherwise specified, all quake activity which is discussed is based on the USGS LOCAL AREA database charts and tables which list quake activity in excess of 3.0 mag. and above. Generally most of the quakes which appear in these counts are 4.5 plus in magnitude.)  For additional information on Plate Tectonics and charts of the Great Rift of the Earth, go to Plate Tectonics Map

 

Four mild shape-shifter quakes struck in the Great Rift in widely separated locations.  Unlike the last few weeks, no particular pattern seems evident.

 

Magnitude 4.9 SOUTH SANDWICH ISLANDS REGION

Thursday, December 02, 2004 at 13:38:31 UTC

Preliminary Earthquake Report

http://neic.usgs.gov/neis/bulletin/neic_rndp.html

U.S. Geological Survey, National Earthquake Information Center

Location        57.13S 25.93W

Depth            92.5 kilometers

Region          SOUTH SANDWICH ISLANDS REGION

Reference     95 km (60 miles) ESE of Visokoi Island, South Sandwich Islands

210 km (130 miles) N of Bristol Island, South Sandwich Islands

3510 km (2180 miles) SE of BUENOS AIRES, Argentina

 

Magnitude 4.6 EASTER ISLAND REGION

Monday, December 06, 2004 at 09:17:24 UTC

Preliminary Earthquake Report

http://neic.usgs.gov/neis/bulletin/neic_rsak.html

U.S. Geological Survey, National Earthquake Information Center

Location        26.83S 114.44W

Depth            10.0 kilometers

Region          EASTER ISLAND REGION

Reference     500 km (310 miles) W of Hanga Roa, Easter Island

4245 km (2640 miles) W of SANTIAGO, Chile

Location Quality         Error estimate: horizontal +/- 21.5 km; depth fixed by location program

 

Magnitude 5.1 AZORES ISLANDS REGION

Thursday, December 02, 2004 at 03:30:02 UTC

Preliminary Earthquake Report

http://neic.usgs.gov/neis/bulletin/neic_rnah.html

U.S. Geological Survey, National Earthquake Information Center

Location        36.98N 33.20W

Depth            10.0 kilometers

Region          AZORES ISLANDS REGION

Reference     330 km (205 miles) SW of Santa Cruz das Flores, Azores, Portugal

435 km (270 miles) WSW of Horta, Azores, Portugal

670 km (415 miles) W of Ponta Delgada, Azores, Portugal

2115 km (1320 miles) W of LISBON, Portugal

 

Magnitude 4.4 NORTH OF SVALBARD

Thursday, December 02, 2004 at 06:29:19 UTC

Preliminary Earthquake Report

http://neic.usgs.gov/neis/bulletin/neic_rndj.html

U.S. Geological Survey, National Earthquake Information Center

Location        82.79N 7.63W

Depth            10.0 kilometers

Region          NORTH OF SVALBARD

Reference     195 km (120 miles) NE of Nord, Greenland

755 km (470 miles) ENE of Alert, Nunavut, Canada

1590 km (990 miles) NNW of Tromso, Norway

2370 km (1470 miles) NNE of NUUK (GODTHAB), Greenland

 

NORTH AMERICAN WATCH

Unless otherwise specified, all quake activity which is discussed is based on the USGS LOCAL AREA database charts and tables which list quake activity in excess of 1.0 mag. and above. Generally most of the quakes which appear in these counts are in the range of 1 to 2 in magnitudeAny numbers used in this section may or may not be accurate and may or may not reflect what will eventually appear in scientific databases.

 

Seismic activity in North America overall for quakes in the range of 1.0 and over was generally down this last week.  Activity has basically randomized, except for the vigorous seismic activity in the St. Helens area, which is now producing 200 quakes or more per week above 1.0

 

NOTE: Most volcano monitoring sites appear to be screening out microquakes. A study needs to be done to establish how to reconcile various lists and databases because of this practice.  The numbers below cannot be considered to be definitive totals and subtotals.  We use them merely to observe relative fluctuations from week to week.

 

US & ALASKA & ISLANDS  --- 509

down from 583 the prior week

 

BIG ISLAND HAWAII (not including microswarms) --- 6

down from 13 during the prior week - these do not include the microquakes under Mauna Loa

 

CALIFORNIANEVADA  ---  356

down from 371 last week, widely scattered in California and Nevada;

 

LONG VALLEY - MONO LAKE REGION -- 26

up from 24 last week.

 

PNW --- 170

down from 250 last week, several widely scattered in Washington State, some 16 were East of Klamath Falls in Oregon, but the overwhelming majority were directly related to St. Helens.

 

NE Cal - East of Klamath Falls, Oregon --- 16

up from 14 last week; these are almost certainly volcanic related, quakes have broken out here off and on during the past two years.

 

UTAH --- 24

down from 14 last week.

 

YELLOWSTONE WATCH

Unless otherwise specified, all quake activity which is discussed is based on the USGS LOCAL AREA database charts and tables which list quake activity in excess of 1.0 mag. and above. Generally most of the quakes which appear in these counts are in the range of 1 to 2 in magnitude.  For Yellowstone Quake Chart, CLICK HERE.

 

YELLOWSTONE  -- 7 widely scattered

down from 11 last week

 

WEEK’S MOST SIGNIFICANT QUAKES

 

Magnitude 6.8 - HOKKAIDO, JAPAN REGION

2004 December 6 14:15:11 UTC

Preliminary Earthquake Report

http://earthquake.usgs.gov/eqinthenews/2004/usrsas/

U.S. Geological Survey, National Earthquake Information Center

Location        42.907°N, 145.200°E

Depth            35 km (21.7 miles) set by location program

Region          HOKKAIDO, JAPAN REGION

Distances     

65 km (40 miles) E of Kushiro, Hokkaido, Japan

250 km (155 miles) ESE of Asahikawa, Hokkaido, Japan

930 km (580 miles) NNE of TOKYO, Japan

7140 km (4440 miles) NE of MOSCOW, Russia

Location Uncertainty horizontal +/- 4.1 km (2.5 miles); depth fixed by location program

Felt Reports   At least 4 people injured and power outages occurred in the Kushiro area. Felt at Obihiro. Also felt at Misawa and Sendai, Honshu. Recorded (5U JMA) in the Kushiro area; (5L JMA) in the Obihiro area and in eastern Hokkaido; (4 JMA) in the Chitose-Tomakomai area and in south-central Hokkaido; (3 JMA) in southwestern and central Hokkaido; (2 JMA) in the Shibetsu area; (1 JMA) in northern Hokkaido. Also recorded (3 JMA) in Aomori and Miyagi; (2 JMA) in Akita, Iwate and Yamagata; (1 JMA) in Fukushima, Ibaraki, Niigata and Shizuoka Prefectures, Honshu.

 

 

 

 

 

VOLCANOES

Around the world with the most interesting and relevant volcano stories; briefs on the likely eruptions as well as coverage of on-going activity. For information on current eruptions, see the Southwest Volcano Centre.  Or see “Breaking Volcano Eruption News”.

 

AS REPORTED LAST WEEK, OBSERVABLE WORLD VOLCANIC ACTIVITY HAS DECLINED SOMEWHAT DURING THE PAST 21 DAYS, BUT A VIGOROUS ERUPTION ON MANAM A FEW MILES OFF-SHORE OF PAPUA NEW GUINEA HAS BUCKED THE GENERAL TREND.

 

This eruption follows the vigorous seismic activity and obvious tectonic plate motion of Australia which has been at an elevated rate during the past 60 days.  (Manam on Manam Island can be said to be virtually on the very Northern-most edge of the Australian Tectonic Plate where is it over-riding the Pacific Plate and bucking up against the Philippine Plate).

 

A FEW OTHER VOLCANOES SCATTERED AROUND THE WORLD ARE STILL SIMMERING IN ERUPTIVE OR PRE-ERUPTIVE PHASES OF VOLCANO BUILDING. 

 

Saint Helens is still building a dome relatively rapidly and steam emissions are increasing.  Colima is still oozing lava, as is Kilauea and Erebus, but no recent reports on most of these suggests a slackening of activity. Etna is still smoking but lava does not seem to be oozing out of any vent.  A few other smokers are still at it in the South Seas, Africa, on Kamchatka Peninsula, and in Central America.

 

Volcano Belinda
– Due to the role of “upheavals” in the polar zones, according to Edgar Cayce’s Earth Changes predictions, this should be watched carefully.

 

WATCH THIS ONE CAREFULLY. The continued occurrence of shape-shifter quakes in the vicinity of the South Sandwich Islands makes this a high profile tectonic change point and a bellwether of worldwide plate motion.

 

REPEATED FROM PREVIOUS UPDATES:  One new eruption was reported for a volcano on the edge of the Antarctic Tectonic Plate where it forms the South Sandwich Islands below South America.  As of the 4th of November, the Global Volcanism Network (GVN) has reported that according to NASA's Earth Observatory News website, the IKONOS satellite acquired an image of Montagu Island (Mount Belinda) on 1 October that showed a steaming vent, and dark basaltic tephra covering ice surfaces N of the lava that erupted down the volcano's N flank. A steam plume drifted N, and light coloured clouds surrounded the S side of the crater.

The South Sandwich Islands are situated approximately between the southern tip of South America and mainland Antarctica. Montagu Island is dominated by the long-dormant Mount Belinda stratovolcano, which rises 1370 meters above sea level. This volcano is totally ice-covered, and until late 2001, it was inactive, thereby accumulating a thick cover of ice and snow. However, as this image above shows, the volcano began erupting in late 2001, spewing basaltic lavas that have melted the ice, producing a marvelous “natural laboratory” for studying lava-ice interactions relevant to the biology of extreme environments as well as to processes believed to be important on the planet Mars. The Current Colour Code for volcano Mt. Belinda is currently at ORANGE.. The Mt. Belinda volcano in the Sandwich Islands (Antarctica) was successfully forecasted by SWVRC's programme ERUPTION Pro 10.5 to erupt in 2004 with 76% probability.

SAINT HELENS VOLCANO UPDATES

Text in this section is a condensation of direct quotes from online source:

CURRENT UPDATE supplied by the U.S. Geological Survey, Vancouver, Washington; University of Washington, Pacific Northwest Seismograph Network, Seattle, Washington; U.S. Geological Survey, Vancouver, Washington; University of Washington, Pacific Northwest Seismograph Network, Seattle, Washington

U.S. Geological Survey, Vancouver, Washington

University of Washington, Pacific Northwest Seismograph Network, Seattle, Washington

December 8, 2004 10:05 a.m. PST (1805 UTC)

MOUNT ST. HELENS VOLCANO

Current status is Volcano Advisory (Alert Level 2); aviation color code ORANGE

Growth of the new lava dome inside the crater of Mount St. Helens continues, accompanied by minor emissions of steam and ash. During such eruptions, episodic changes in the level of activity can occur over days to months. Increase in the intensity of the eruption could occur suddenly or with little warning and may include explosions that produce hazardous conditions within several miles of the crater. Small lahars could suddenly descend the Toutle River if triggered by heavy rain or by interaction of hot rocks with snow and ice. These lahars pose a negligible hazard below the Sediment Retention Structure (SRS) but could pose a hazard to people along the river channel upstream of the SRS.

Although considered less likely, the current activity could evolve into a more explosive phase that affects areas farther away and sends significant ash thousands of feet above the crater where it could be a hazard to aircraft and to downwind communities.

Wind forecasts from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), coupled with eruption models, show that ash clouds that rise above the crater rim today would drift northeastward early in the day, and eastward later in the day.

The current seismicity is consistent with a continuing rise of magma driving uplift of the crater floor and building of the lava dome. The low rates of seismicity and gas emission suggest that the lava reaching the surface is gas poor, thereby reducing the probability of highly explosive eruptions in the near term.

Recent observations: High wind, rain, and snow from a large storm are wreaking havoc with field-sensor telemetry. Some seismic stations show considerable noise, and some signals are temporarily dropping out. The ongoing sequence of small (mostly less than M1.5) earthquakes continues, and no new large (>M2.5) quakes have been recorded within the past 24 hours. A single GPS station high on the outer southeast flank of the volcano (~7300 feet) shows about 2 cm (1 inch) of progressive southeastward movement over the past 3 weeks. This minimal movement, apparently in response to new lava impinging on the southeast crater wall, is an expected consequence of the nature of the dome growth occurring in the crater. Additional station installations are planned for the outer south flank to determine the extent of the area responding to the lateral load. Poor weather has prevented recent observations and field work, and no field work is planned for today. When weather permits, field crews will conduct visual and hydrological observations, replace and maintain seismic equipment, attempt gas and thermal-imaging measurements, and install additional GPS stations.

For additional information, background, images, and other graphics: http://vulcan.wr.usgs.gov/News/framework.html

USGS Cascades Volcano Observatory, the Pacific Northwest Seismograph Network at the University of Washington, and the USGS Northern California Seismic Network and Volcano Hazards Team in Menlo Park, California, monitor the major volcanoes in the Cascade Range of northern California, Oregon, and Washington. The U.S. Geological Survey and the University of Washington continue to monitor the situation closely and will issue additional updates and changes in alert

For additional information, background, images, and other graphics: http://vulcan.wr.usgs.gov/News/framework.html

For seismic information: http://www.pnsn.org/HELENS/welcome.html

For a definition of alert levels: http://vulcan.wr.usgs.gov/News/framework.html

Telephone recordings with the latest update on Mount St. Helens and phone contacts for additional information can be heard by calling: Media (360) 891-5180 General public (360) 891-5202

OTHER CASCADE VOLCANOES as of December Day 8 2004
Same source as above.

All other volcanoes in the Cascade Range are all at normal levels of background seismicity. These include Mount Baker, Glacier Peak, Mount Rainier, and Mount Adams in Washington State; Mount Hood, Mount Jefferson, Three Sisters, Newberry, and Crater Lake, in Oregon; and Medicine Lake, Mount Shasta, and Lassen Peak in northern California.

LATEST FORECAST FOR SAINT HELENS BY EC BULLETIN:   Look to mid-month in December for increases in activity (see the syzygy periods defined above).

At least three of the active volcanoes on Kamchatka Peninsula are behaving in many ways very similar to St. Helens.  Perhaps we shall see these four volcanoes, which are in the Northern Arc of the Pacific Rim of Fire, flare up virtually simultaneously.

AS REPORTED PREVIOUSLY: Colima may be the closest “model” for how St. Helens may behave during the next few years.  Both may erupt off and on with lava flows, as Colima is now, or with occasional ash plumes, then slowly stewing for weeks and months on end while merely steaming like nearly two dozen other volcanoes around the world, steaming until the next eruptive episode of ash and lava, which may last from a few days to several months.  More probable than not, St. Helens will have sudden flare-offs and a few major ash plumes during the next year, but no major, explosive eruption which comes even close to its 1980 eruption.  It will continue to sporadically emit steam and ash like Colima and Popo for the next few years.  How much and how vigorously remains unpredictable.

 

More probable than not during the next 90 days, perhaps with some fits and starts related to Lunar Motion. Most probable is

 

(a)   the New Moon Perigee Syzygy of December.

 

Here are the SWVC volcanic activity numbers as of December Day 8 2004:

 

6 on restless list (could go on active list at any moment) (up one from last week)

 

46 on alert list (pre-cursors suggesting that activity may begin) (up one from last week)

 

20 on active list (seismic, gas, steam, lava, ash, or explosive activity) (same as last week)

 

Popo gave a 8 puff day yesterday, down from 14 last Tuesday.  Centrapred reports for December Day 8 (17:00 GMT) that “In the last 24 hours the monitoring system of Popocatepetl volcano, recorded only 8 low intensity exhalations accompanied by steam and gas. The other monitored parameters remain without important changes. At the moment of this report we can observe the volcano with low fumarolic activity. In an aerial photograph taken on July 8th by SCT, subsidence is observed in the inner crater; an external lava dome at the bottom of the crater cannot be distinguished. Due to the low levels of activity shown in the past days, the scenarios consisting of explosions and ash emision are less probable.”

 

HIGHLY INTERESTING NEW PLATE TECTONICS RESOURCE:

 

Digital World Tectonic Activity Map (DTAM) -  visualization tool that presents an actual representational view of global tectonics; created using current global datasets of seismicity, volcanism, and plate motions.

 

MOST ACTIVE VOLCANOES THIS WEEK

from Volcano Breaking News by Volcanologist John Seach

Volcano Travel:  john@volcanolive.com

Dates in red are posted in Eastern Australian Time (UT + 10 hr)

Manam Volcano (Papua New Guinea)
4.10 S, 145.06 E, summit elevation 1807 m, Stratovolcano
Wednesday 8th December 2004
It is disappointing that the international community has not taken the Manam volcano disaster more seriously. An event of this magnitude is too large for any one country to deal with. Urgent food supplies are needed to feed the thousands of people evacuated to the mainland. Gardens and trees have been destroyed in the eruptions, and people will not be able to return to the island for some considerable time, assuming that volcanic activity declines to a safe level. Monitoring equipment needs to be installed on the island to enable scientific study of the volcanic activity. Manam continues its high level of eruptive activity. Heavy rains from the start of the wet season are creating mudflows. The international community needs to start taking action to prevent further loss of life. The author of this website has been on the island to witness the situation, and has been asked by the evacuees to appeal for international assistance. Further information contact John Seach (Email: john@volcanolive.com)
More on Manam Volcano...
Volcanoes of Papua New Guinea...

Manam Volcano (Papua New Guinea)
4.10 S, 145.06 E, summit elevation 1807 m, Stratovolcano
Tuesday 7th December 2004
Eruptions continue at Manam volcano in Papua New Guinea. Five people are confirmed dead, and 9300 people are being evacuated from the island. The refugees are being relocated to three relief centres on the mainland. International assistance is being requested by local authorities to deal with the situation. Thousands of people are still on the island waiting to be evacuated. Food, shelter, and water are scarce in the relief centres. Manam is one of the most active volcanoes in Papua New Guinea.
More on Manam Volcano...
Volcanoes of Papua New Guinea...

 

 

 

Standing Assessment:  Likely, it is fair to conclude that the not-so-invisible Black Arts Nation, from HAARP to the Navy, to the Bush/Ashcroft prisons in Iraq/Afghanistan and Cuba, not to mention many other technologies, areas, and programs, are far out of ethical, moral, constitutional, and treaty control, as has been widely feared. 

 

 

BLACK ARTS NATION

 

STAY TUNED.  We are just on the front edge of “the outing”….

 

THE FIRST MAJOR OUTING IS GOING TO BE VOTESCAM 2004….

 

or is it going to be the prisoner abuse scandal?

 

The auguries are not clear to me this week on how any of the this is going in any direction, or even if any of this IS going anywhere.

 

If none of this goes anywhere, take it as a given, take it as a fact, that all is lost on the Republic and we have passed into in the deep twilight zone of a Fascist nightmare for which they may not be any electoral remedy.

 

 

 

 

 

ECONOMY WATCH 

 

Already the growth factors in the U.S. economy are running out of steam.  There are still no signs of a general recovery, there have been many growing signs of a recession, and there is clear evidence of a stagflation dynamic setting in (rising prices with no growth).  The stimulation produced by the hurricane destruction and increased war production is already slacking and that stimulation failed to produce a year-end surge in consumer spending.

 

Based on the sudden drop in the price of oil, engineered of course by the Imperial Faction and their Saudi cousins, the value of the dollar stabilized temporarily.  BUT EVEN SO COMMODITY PRICES WILL CLIMB RAPIDLY DURING 2005 TO CATCH UP WITH THE HUGE INCREASE IN ENERGY COSTS (UP SOME 30% THIS YEAR).  This will generate a pernicious inflation in NORTH AMERICA.

 

FOR THE LAST UPDATED DISCUSSION:

click here for the EC Bulletin Update as of October 27, 2004

 

With the re-election of George Bush a completely new scenario for the next two years is needed. It is this:  the main driving force of the economy will transition fully into an Imperial economy.  It will be based on major militarization of the U.S. to AMP up Empire Building for general export.  We may be as in Germany as in approximately 1934.  During the 1930’s, while much of the world was mired in a deep depression, Germany, Italy, and Japan under the Fascists (Corporate National Plutocracy) prospered in a wave of tremendous prosperity for their workers.  The Fascists terminated all external debt to the international banks and recycled their currencies highly astutely without the need to finance debt.  That is why Hitler, Mussolini, and the Japanese Militarists were so fervently supported.

 

A massive empire building drive to export “Order” over the greater portion of the world’s petroleum reserves will shore up the value of the petro dollar quite nicely and preserve its hegemony well through the “peak oil” period.  Huge expenditures on armaments should provide a continuing stimulus of the North American economy, enough to at least keep it gimping along while the Empire is consolidated.

 

The eventual eclipse of well oil poses no long term problem.  Only naïve analysts are worried.  Once oil supply is seriously declining and oil prices can be maintained above $80/barrel, some people in the oil industry, including David Rockefeller, understand the means of “growing” your own.  They have held the secrets of this for some 23 years.

 

THE ONLY BUMP ON THE ROAD TO THE IMPERIAL ECONOMY is “global warming”.  This is bringing people into other solutions than the use of oil.  Is this not a course of development the cabals of great wealth in America must resist as strongly as they can?  If this is correct, we would expect that a great political struggle will be waged on both sides of this global warming issue.  We should expect to see that the Republicrats will resist encouraging a replacement for oil to the very bitter end.  Without dominance over oil, their feudalized world will dissolve away from them.

 

FOR THE LASTEST DETAILED DISCUSSION

 

See the Earth Changes Bulletin Update Of July 21, 2004

 

FOR THE STAND PAT ECONOMIC PREDICTION FOR THIS YEAR,

 

 See the Earth Changes Bulletin Update Of May 12 2004

 

GENERAL PREDICTION DJI AVERAGES

 

The bubble is rising steadily.  The DJI finished December Day 8 at  10,494.23 down about $100 from December 1 at 10,590.22. 

 

DON’T EXPECT ANYTHING HIGHER THIS YEAR.  It will hover here and then fall for a while in January until the market absorbs the psychological shock of the somewhat depressed Christmas Season which is already quite evident.

 

You can now buy from some companies on ultra low payments but will not charge you any interest for two years.  That is a sign of retail desperation.

       

THIS IS STILL GOOD:  AS PREVIOUSLY REPORTED:  “Propredictions” has revised their psychic forecasts to correspond more or less with mine.  They predict a soft DJI around 10,000 for the remainder of 2004  However, unlike mine to date, they predict a rise to 11,000 during the first quarter of January 2005.  IT LOOKS LIKE THIS IS ON TARGET.

 

THIS COULD HAPPEN WITH THE PUSHING OF THE SOCIAL SECURITY STOCK SCHEME.  EVERYBODY WILL HOLD THEIR CURRENT STOCK POSITIONS HOPING FOR A BRISK UPTURN IN THE MARKET.

 

Oil prices are soft and may drop some more and allow the bubble to inflate some more.   But WATCH THIS VERY CAREFULLY – WAR IN THE MIDDLE EAST IS THE PRIMARY FACTOR DRIVING OIL UP IN PRICE AND ACCELERATING THE DECLINE IN THE DOLLAR. 

 

The dollar of course is a major factor.  As the dollar drops AND the stock values remain constant, U.S. stocks will become suddenly cheaper for foreign investors and they may begin to convert to buy U.S. stocks.  This also will firm up values when it occurs, but I have no idea where the conversion points are.

 

DIDN’T THIS HAPPEN THIS PAST FIRST WEEK OF DECEMBER?  The dollar firmed up and rose in value slightly while the price of oil sagged slightly.  Stocks dropped slightly in value as well, but that is probably based on the already evident poor showing of Christmas retail sales.  Profits in the major corporations will be tighter than hoped, reducing the speculative value of the stocks.

 

This is all a complex equation which could go sideways at any moment.  THE MAIN PROVISO IS AL QAEDA. When they strike in the U.S. again, they will trump all else.

 

THE OTHER MAIN PROVISO:  The main weakness in the international economy is that THE BUSH ADMINISTRATION IS SO INCOMPETENT THAT NO INTERNATIONAL ACTOR KNOWS HOW TO BE RATIONAL AND MAKE REAL DECISIONS.  EVERYTHING IS HEDGED AND HIDDEN.  All news on the war fronts is terrible. Iraq recovery has essentially collapsed. Real war is heating up. The insurgents and terrorists now are just playing hide and seek in Iraq, the more the American Bull rushes them, the less energy it has to remain in the game.  Bush’s support is crumbling and he couldn’t do a deal internationally if his life depended upon it.

 

EURO WATCH    - THE DOLLAR ROSE AFTER A MONTH OF DECLINE

AS PREDICTED:  The dollar closed today at 0.7504 up almost a fifth of a penny from 0.7486 per euro a week ago. The dollar lost about six cents during the past 60 days but with the rise in interest rates and the decrease in oil prices, it is clear that the value of the dollar is being stabilized.  Don’t expect much drop for the remainder of the year.  The dollar may actually gain a bit for a brief time.

 

 

“As oil goes up, the dollar will tend also to go down against the Euro.”

 

OIL STABILIZED IN THE RANGE OF $42.  This allowed euro/dollar

values to firm up a bit DURING THE LAST TWO WEEKS. It also appears that retail energy prices are stabilizing at the current retail prices.  

 

But, as the article below strongly hints, the price of oil is likely to climb again during the next couple of months.  Thus the dollar will weaken some more but this time probably without any rise in stock values.

 

And thus in general, expect a steady if slow creep of prices upward all through 2005, with faster relative increases for some basic commodities and imports to reflect rapidly rising international costs, which will still accelerate in response to the rise in energy costs this past six months.

 

MUST READ:  “The Dollar Panics” in “The Coming Economic Collapse of 2006”, which lays out the dynamics of what is happening

 

LATEST OVERVIEW ON OIL:

 

Oil Prices Rise on Concerns About Supplies

Wednesday December 8, 6:24 pm ET

By Brad Foss, AP Business Writer

Crude Prices Rise on Concerns About Heating Oil Supplies, Fears OPEC Could Rein in Output

http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/041208/oil_prices_17.html

 

Crude oil futures prices rose Wednesday amid concerns about tight heating oil supplies and fears that OPEC could rein in output when it meets later this week.

 

Light sweet crude for January delivery was up 48 cents to $41.94 per barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. In London, Brent crude futures climbed 42 cents to $38.69 per barrel. Despite a sharp pullback recently, oil prices are roughly 30 percent higher than a year ago.

 

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While the Energy Department reported rising U.S. inventories of crude oil and distillate fuel, the supply of distillate, which includes heating oil, remains 12 percent lower than a year ago and that leaves the country vulnerable in the event of a colder-than-normal winter.

 

Heating oil futures jumped 3.63 cents to $1.2599 per gallon on Nymex, where they are trading roughly 40 percent above year ago levels.

 

Aaron Kildow, a broker with Prudential Financial Inc. in New York, said Wednesday's rise in energy prices had a lot to do with the market reversing course from Tuesday, when prices fell sharply in anticipation of large week-to-week increases in crude oil and distillate fuel.

 

"We were looking for much bigger builds," Kildow said.

 

The Energy Department reported that the nation's commercial inventory of crude oil increased last week by 600,000 barrels to 293.3 million barrels, or 5 percent higher than a year ago.

 

The agency said the supply of distillate fuel, which includes heating oil and diesel, grew by 1.4 million barrels to 119.3 million barrels. There was more than 136 million barrels of distillate fuel at the same time a year ago.

 

Still, concerns about tight heating oil supplies ahead of winter have eased somewhat in recent weeks due to mild fall weather in the Northern Hemisphere and gradually growing inventories.

 

But with oil prices down sharply from their late October peak above $55 a barrel, the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries meets in Cairo on Friday to outline its plans for the first quarter of 2005, and hawks like No. 2 producer Iran have managed to garner support from Venezuela, Libya, Kuwait and Qatar in urging compliance with OPEC's official quota in a bid to stem the decline in prices.

 

Staking out a conflicting position ahead of the upcoming meeting, the oil minister of production giant Saudi Arabia said Wednesday he was happy with present crude output. Saudi Oil Minister Ali Naimi also said he wasn't concerned about the U.S. dollar's weakness against most major currencies, saying fluctuations were normal.

 

OPEC president Purnomo Yusgiantoro, meantime, said Wednesday a production cut could occur only in the second quarter of 2005.

 

BNP Paribas Commodity Futures broker Tom Bentz speculated on how the market would react, depending on what OPEC decides:

 

-- If the cartel keeps output at current levels, the downward price momentum would likely stick, Bentz said.

 

-- If the cartel adheres more strictly to its official quota, that would keep markets tense and maybe push prices higher.

 

-- And if OPEC agrees to cut its output quota, "that would be a big surprise," Bentz said, sending the strongest signal possible to traders that the cartel intends to defend today's high prices.

 

OPEC members, excluding Iraq, are pumping out crude at full tilt at about 28 million barrels daily, or 1 million barrels above its official quota. Iraq adds an additional 1.8 million barrels or so.

 

"While much attention is focused on possible production cuts ... the key to the near-term supply picture lies largely with one member -- OPEC kingpin Saudi Arabia," Energyintel's Tom Wallin said in a research note.

 

The world's largest crude producer pumped 9.5 million barrels a day in November, or 700,000 barrels above its quota.

 

Petroleum prices have been high due to strong global demand, a tight supply cushion and fears of output disruptions in Iraq, Nigeria and Russia. In September, Hurricane Ivan knocked out significant oil production in the Gulf of Mexico, though output is now recovering.

 

In other Nymex trading, gasoline futures were up less than a penny at $1.0875 per gallon and natural gas futures rose 6.2 cents to $6.683 per 1,000 cubic feet.

 

Associated Press Writers Jane Wardell and Yeoh En-Lai in Singapore contributed to this report.

 

 

 

 

 

SURVIVAL WATCH

 

FOOD WATCH

 

For latest info, see the Earth Changes Bulletin Update as of  July 7, 2004

 

JOB WATCH

 

Any aspect of the construction and home products industry is hot.

 

 

 

SIGN OF THE TIMES: Ken Lay, who is now widely described as the biggest corporate swindler of all time, is still scott free. (ONE OF THE WORST ECONOMIC TERRORISTS OF ALL TIME).  But now finally after waiting for two or so years, Lay has been indicted.  Notice the timing, near the end of the first term of the Bush Administration. At this time I will hazard the guess that he will be pardoned by Bush during the final days of his administration, probably December of this year.  ANOTHER NEARLY EQUAL SIGN OF THE TIMES:  The lawyers who have been settling the Enron collapse for all parties, are billing the remaining net assets of Enron for approximately $1 billion for their services.  This is a new heavenly-ordained definition for the term Chutzpah.  I CALL IT CLASS ECONOMIC TERRORISM.

 

POLITICAL WATCH

For general overview on the Tragedy in Iraq and the Bureau-Political Civil War in Washington DC, I highly recommend Tom Dispatch.

 

For general background:  see Earth Changes Bulletin Update As Of July 7 2004

 

 

NO CHANGE THIS WEEK

 

WHAT WILL HAPPEN NEXT IS ANYONE’S GUESS. American politics has never been so unpredictable but maybe it has all been foreseen….even 400 years ago by Nostradamus.  Many who would will a great change are depressing in deep pessimism. Despite a year of exposing the grave crimes of the Imperial Faction and the incompetence of their President, a majority of Americans WHO VOTE refuse to believe that conditions have become so corrupt.  They insist on drawing their blinders more tightly around their favorite illusions.

 

In this they are so well aided and abetted by a crony Mass Broadcast Media which has chosen to abjectly shill the fantasies and delusions of a upper class bubble of “attitude”. 

 

For a time yet, important truths must remain an orphan in the street.  Currently the orphan is WANDERING THE STREETS OF OHIO AND FLORIDA, AND OCCASSIONALLY IN A DOZEN OTHER LOCALES, with VOTESCAM 2004 written across its blazer.

 

The vote scams were done so brazenly and so amateurishly, they STINK, OBVIOUSLY. THIS IS CRUCIAL.  In a multitude of places and ways, the essential immaturity and incompetent greed of the Imperial Faction and its allies break above the surface of Illusion to demonstrate extensive crookery in the election process. Dozens of stories and professionally attested documentation now floods the iway, providing circulation to tens of millions of people around the world in a direct, honest, unfiltered way which was IMPOSSIBLE TO EVEN CONCEIVE TEN YEARS AGO. 

 

We are very lucky the cohorts of the Imperial Faction have been so brazen.  They have alerted the world and half the Americans to the existence of a malevolent class of somewhat amateurish crooks within the heart of the current ruling political cliques.

 

THIS MAY MAKE ALL THE DIFFERENCE IN THE WORLD.  WHAT A FABULOUS TEST OF THE NEW IWAY MEDIA. 

 

The people assembled, so to speak, get to directly assay the evidence.  FOR GOD’S SAKE GO FOR IT.  HISTORY IS TWISTING IN THE BREEZE, GO GIVE IT A TURN IN THE DIRECTION OF HONESTY AND INTEGRITY. 

 

If you push it, eventually this will break into the Courts and eventually Grand Jury proceedings will be undertaken. 

 

Nixon’s thieving trickery and lies were ultimately broken by Congress, when finally leading Republicans realized that they couldn’t hide away his crookedness and obvious abuse of power.

 

Bush may well be broken by the much larger VOTESCAM scandal, but it will not be through the Congress at first.  It is now too corrupted and unresponsive to people and media pressures.  Like small children, today’s vastly over-privileged political class in power believes that all you have to do is believe in your exalted status and all the problems will go away to hang out with the homeless.

 

THE COURTS AND GRAND JURY PROSECUTIONS IN LOCAL GOVERNMENT JURISDICTIONS OFFER THE MOST DYNAMIC MECHANISM FOR BREAKING VOTESCAM 2004.  As this unfolds, which may take the greater part of 2005, the Republican Party may eventually disintegrate with old conservatives and neocom factions coming out into open warfare with each other.  Finally in a convulsive political month, if this comes to pass,  the old-fashioned Conservatives will bolt the Republican party as it is currently constituted and align with Democrats to oust the most hated and crooked administration in U.S. History by invoking impeachment proceedings.

 

AT ALL COSTS THE PEOPLE MUST NOT ALLOW THEMSELVES TO BE PERSUADED THAT FEDERAL COURTS PREVAIL.  UNDER THE TRADITIONAL FEDERALISM STRUCTURE, THERE IS NO COMPELLING RIGHT OF FEDERAL COURTS TO DICTATE OUTCOMES IN THIS MATTER.  ONLY LOCAL COURTS AND LEGISLATURES RULE THE VOTING ISSUE, EXCEPT IN REGARD TO CIVIL RIGHTS OF MINORITIES.  BUT THIS IS TRUMPED BY THE BLACKS, WHO WILL BE THE PRIMARY LITIGANTS FOR FORCING RECOUNTS AND NEW ELECTIONS IN OHIO AND FLORIDA.

 

GO FOR IT REVEREND JESSE JACKSON.  THIS IS YOUR MOMENT IS HISTORY. SEIZE IT.  SHOVE THE IMPERIAL JUNTA’S SNOOTY GARBAGE BACK INTO ITS FILTHY FACE.

 

Though it is important to try to block the certification of the electors in the crooked states of Ohio and Florida, failure to do so does not end the matter. Even if Bush is duly sworn in, the criminal issues of fraud can continue to mount and disintegrate American governance.  There are many viable battlegrounds.   If a solid case of evidence can be presented to the world in the face of the naked refusal of American political institutions to address the fraud, any group of Americans will be within their rights to request World Opinion, through the U.N. or other forums, to mount international pressure against this fraudulently elected President.

 

But in the meantime, as previously observed, Ralph Nader, many of Kerry’s lawyers and agents, Jesse Jackson, and other public interest groups are aggressively seeking to block the certification of the elections.  They are attempting to prove many different cases of the Diebold VOTESCAM as well as other forms of election cheating.  During the second week of December the electoral college meets to formally cast their votes for President.  Those who want to prove that at least some elections were “crooked” have to be able to convince a court before then to block the certification of the elections in their state.  Only by court order at this point will anyone be able to  prevent fraudulently-elected electors from being seated for the final tabulation.

 

Proven fraud, for example, may be able to block the certification of Ohio’s electors.  That might cause Bush to be effectively blocked from re-election - if he could not gain a majority of the electors.  But so might Kerry be blocked.  Neither might have a majority.

 

Unless there is a new election conducted in Ohio, and perhaps the  courts might require others, the electoral college would have to function as it was originally designed and begin in earnest to attempt as a group to discuss with each other to come up with a majority of electoral votes for one man.  The so-called “pledged electors” would have to act as independent electors on second and succeeding votes in their chambers.

 

And if they did act independently, they might still split right down the middle. Or if they come up with a winner with a clear absolute majority, it is likely the nation’s legal system and the House of Representatives would be at war with each other, all seeking to change the outcome in January by refusing to accept the electoral college, or seeking to overturn it in some New York lawyer way.

 

This could keep the uncertainty going for several months, a crisis of complete stalemate. 

 

Is such likely? Don’t ask me, but many would prefer such a situation. It is possible, and the fraud involved would entirely justify stalemating the electoral process as a prelude to shaking the crap out to make it right.  The U.S. would be better off without a President than continue such massive crony corruption in an atmosphere of universal loss of confidence in the honesty of the vote and the competence of its military expeditions abroad.

 

Under such conditions, honest men eventually must end up becoming criminals to protect themselves from the incursions of crooked government and crooked lawyers.  Far better to have no such government which can function to persecute honest people.

 

Interestingly enough, a psychic predicted this stalemate some fifteen years ago….a time of complete electoral stalemate which was only resolved with agreement to elect an entirely different person.  Nominally based on a Nostradamus quatrain, the psychic reader claimed to talk directly with Nostradamus to receive an authoritative translation and interpretation of many of Nostradamus’s predictions which refer to our time.  I have previously shied away from Nostradamus, but this psychic’s work with Nostradamus has some very credible components to it, not least of which is that the conditions and revelations of fact during the past five years were eerily predicted 15 years ago through this person.  Some  key notes to the predicted stalemate:  an embattled President facing “Watergate” type suspicions of subterfuge, an election so blockaded by manipulations, intense ideological stalemate, and lawyers, that the Congress would have to meet to try to resolve the deadlock, ultimately selecting a compromise “third” individual….

 

…sound familiar to anyone?

 

Was 2000 just the prolegomena to the coming deadlock?

 

(I will post much more info about this psychic in a short while).

 

PROJECTED POLITICAL FUTURES:  Uncertainty for two more weeks, possibly for several more months amidst rapidly deteriorating conditions.

 

The highest possible outcome – stalemating the Imperial Faction with a Kerry amidst a tragic ending to the horrible blunders  in Iraq.  Then a progressive downward economic spiral. But maybe Kerry deserves a better fate?

 

The lowest possible outcome -  more probable than not....another four years of political struggle, bitterness, the loss of more political and individual rights, continued declassing and economic deterioration, and a growing general civil upheaval which takes many forms…in the midst of a nation which is virtually ostracized from most of the remainder of the world…and the forces of Jihad reaching greater ascendancy in the Middle-East.

 

 

 

A new media now arrives, floating down the river Iway, and with it comes a new consciousness of the world and the lies which have driven so much of the past 50 years….

 

From this, the future will arise as the old world slowly collapses.

 

All else is fluid, in transition. Thank God Almighty!

 

THE STRATEGIC SITUATIONFinal Synopsis
For predictions related to the mess in Palestine, the Middle East, and the Bush political era.

 

CONDITIONS IN IRAQ AND THE MIDDLE EAST

ARE IN EXTREME CRISIS

 

The entire world continues to witness the American impasse in Iraq.  American policy and management are now clearly on trajectory to a catastrophic loss.

 

The damage is done, the strategic condition is fatal, Iraq and the entire Middle East is lost.  Iraq is the fatal Achilles Heel of the American Empire. Iraq, like Iran, is totally lost to Western influences and the infections from this disasterous invasion will spread poisons throughout the world body politic.  The situation condemns the Americans to a generation of internal conflict and a steep collective bankruptcy. The next Democratic administration in the U.S. will have an enormous job just to get rid of all the SS stooges who will have been embedded into the fabric of American society by the time of the collapse of the Bush Junta.

 

Despite the looming loss and collapse,  we can already see at work the aggressive moves of the Imperial Faction to ready the U.S. for another round of Imperial adventurism.  A long, deepening affair with some aspects of Fascist tyranny is more probable than not if the Bush Administration cannot be seriously derailed and/or blockaded with paralysis.

 

A major consolidation of power is now underway. The new CIA director, who is assuming de facto control of all U.S. intelligence, regardless of the so-called hung-up reform legislation, was a virtual classmate of George Herbert Walker Bush at Yale.  His career is the history of the agency, hired out of Skull and Crossbones, one of the early agents in the New National Security State which was created at the same time as the state of Israel. 

 

Porter Goss is George Herbert Walker Bush’s old Skull and Bones Yale frat buddy from way back in the days when the CIA WAS Skull and Bones…who do you think is now in fact running the CIA once again?  People who believe in extreme secrecy in very discrete service to the inner circles of a small aristocracy of entitled people.  If you think we are shut out now, you t’aint seen nuttin yet.

 

Thus in certain ways, “Poppy”  is back in the saddle again…the Bush Crime Family, its plutocratic allies, and the Imperial Faction is closer than ever with dominance over the CIA, NSA, the Pentagon, the FBI.  What is government, what is corporate, and what is Bush Crime Family is no longer discernible.  And still invisible are the great fortunes who sponsor many of the institutions and political/ media foot soldiers who are advancing the cause of fascist plutocracy everywhere.

 

A major turnover in the CIA will soon stuff it with Yassha Men.  And the same fate is in store for the State Department under the diktat of Condeleeza Rice.  The international competence of the U.S., whatever is left, will disintegrate rapidly during the next four years and it will in fact move operationally a long way toward being a corrupt Banana Republic ruled by small circles of corrupt, cynical estate managers.

 

Meanwhile the semi-tragic Powell falls by the wayside and all of the powers of the State Department are brought directly into the control of the Imperial Faction through the appointment of Condeleeza Rice as Secretary Of State.  The one true act of service Powell could give the country and the world would be to reveal the truth of the past 40 years, beginning with his conduct in Vietnam while white-washing My Lai.  If the fool could find it in himself to fall on his sword he could find a true grace in history’s remembrance.  But I suspect that the man is too conflicted in bogus cants to get anything right.  He will leave the stage of history as a thoroughly discredited liar and fool, even if he retains a good enough schtick to fleece right wing evangelical and business groups for tens of thousands per “motivational” speech.

 

The departure of Ashcroft is extremely bad news.  Ashcroft was crazy but his replacement is insane, a deep core sociopath who finds nothing to dislike in Nazi-like rationales for hidden torture chambers and Soviet style gulags in which people disappear forever.  Shades of the Gestapo and Heinrich Himmler, now Bush gives us for Attorney General the man who wrote the legal doctrines for Al Ghraib, Gitmo, and other sociopath hidey holes for nouveau torture.

 

The U.S. is in desperate difficulty with such a man in command of the laws.  In the mind of such an obvious sociopath, no law means anything…

 

As these prime players and others are moved into position, the Imperial Faction consolidates its control with or without the understanding of George Bush.   With only slight luck, they will be able to appoint “made men” into the Supreme Court and complete a generational seizure of all aspects of the U.S. Government.

 

Working with their key allies in the Black Arts Nation and the hidden cabal of plutocratic families on the East Coast which predominately controls it, inner groups will be able to employ even more aggressively their gangs of right wing street enforcers to intimidate independent media and naive people at various non-violent demonstrations while creating bogus “violence” to bad rap the demonstrators.  As well, they will have even greater ability to shut off the political careers of upstarts who promote the wrong issues and agendas.

 

And if they get away with the theft of the current elections by hacking the voting machines and the electronic process of tabulating the totals together, it is doubtful that most crucial elections in the country will ever be “won” by the majority of people again.

 

All in all, the year 2004/05 is parallel with approx. 1934/35. The fascist nightmare in America is far closer than anyone dares to believe.  History branches this next two years PERMANENTLY.  And the choice is currently too close to call but the game is surely rigged.

 

As previously observed, as a consequence of the widely unexpected Bush reelection, several massive reaction waves have been set in motion.  One of the most important reaction waves is among political state policymakers throughout Eurasia. The Eurasian Super-Coalition will form up rapidly this next year and progressively isolate the U.S., Bush, and the Dollar. This consolidation will be largely silent, conversations of understanding among many leaders in many states who wish, entirely reasonably, to isolate themselves from involvement in the international tragedies being engineered in the U.S.  This will make the coming economic collapse in the U.S. so much deeper, precipitous,  more bitter. What Americans have not yet understood in Kansas is that the world does not NEED America.

 

…Not since the production of technology was outsourced.  (You dumb clucks)…

 

Another reaction wave is at a more fundamental human level.  The increasing violence in Iraq continues to reveal that American military forces are inadequate to the task of conducting the proper kind of warfare and national pacification.  An arrogant “superpower” elite sits in Washington DC and believes in its doctrines of massive, overpowering force, shock and awe tactics, and Proactive Aggression Dominance and are simply oblivious to the increasing feeling of disgust and loathing which is mounting in the world.  HUGE NUMBERS OF people worldwide are beginning to realize that the modern face of Americas’ military and internal police forces look more  and more like Hitler’s Germany.

 

Falluja, which the Sorcerers in the Mass Broadcast Media tout as a great victory, provides little sense of confidence.  There cannot be said to be a victory when one successfully slaughters all the fish in a barrel with a machine gun. One speaks in terms of butchery, not victory.  Scenes from Falluja appear to reveal that the U.S. military still confuses saving a city with destroying it…more and more glimpses of MyLai can be seen as hyped up, drugged up, hair-trigger soldiers shoot at anything that moves…more and more the ceaseless propaganda phrases of surgical strikes, precision targeting, highly disciplined, highly skilled operations can be seen largely for what it is, wishful thinking by incompetent pipe-dreamers in Washington DC which ends up as unmitigated horseshit in operation.

 

And every soldier past and present knows and understands….sadly some of them are so confused they think they like it.

 

It most certainly seems fair to conclude that a discredited Army engagement doctrine pounds away at densely settled urban zones with exceptional violence. The results please no one and simply increase the polarization of world dynamic forces into greater opposition.   The time is quickly coming when the American military simply is not going to be welcome anywhere at any level in most of the world. 

 

And the answer for all this is at least partly obvious, an extremely self-centered piker too cheap to do real war…using high explosives and extreme fear (instead of skill and people) to pacify and occupy a country without a clue to how real men have successfully conducted pacification operations in peace among many peoples in many places and times.

 

But the damage is done…

 

Iraq is the fatal Achilles Heel of the American Empire. The country is lost and the infections from it  which have set into the world body politic condemn the Americans to a generation of internal conflict and a steep collective bankruptcy. The next Democratic administration in the U.S. will have an enormous job just to get rid of all the SS stooges who will have been embedded into the fabric of American society.

 

THE MAIN OBSTACLE TO PEACE IN IRAQ AND THE MIDDLE EAST ARE THE AMERICANS AND THEIR STUPID AND INEFFECTUAL INTERFERENCES which are about as successful as Israel’s efforts to make peace.  America seems utterly highjacked by Zionist agents but people are still too timid to talk about it.

 

Bottom line:

 

All the King’s Men got mugged by a swindling crook named Chalabi, who sold the New World Order Emperor the equivalent of the Brooklyn Bridge – the mythical Weapons of Mass Destruction.

 

To claim this prize, the Mass Broadcast Media began beating the war drums and the “Good German” Americans goose-stepped to war.  One thousand three hundred and counting Americans died in vain, along with some 100,000 Iraqis, and some 10,000 U.S. soldiers got maimed for life, with unknown numbers of Iraqi’s wandering around mutilated in some fashion.  And then there is the DU poisoning. God only knows how many tens of thousands of people are getting poisoned for life by the depleted uranium.

 

As things stand now, sometime in 2005, Americans will beat a hasty retreat, under the pretext of some contrived imaginary political fig leaf, and we will see the last helicopter evacuation from Iraq...finishing the historical parallel of this Tragedy with the Tragedy of Vietnam.

 

If so, it will be the beginning of the end of both the American Century and the U.S. Constitution. A generation of upheaval and grievous conflict will ensue before the Americans can repose themselves and their society on a sounder basis.

 

For the Iraqis, likely Iraq may cease to exist.  The Kurds may go their way, while the Sunnis and Shias struggle over the future of Baghdad, perhaps reducing it to the Beirut of the early 1980’s .  In the end Iran’s mullahs may provide the Shias the margin to take control.  And thus the stage may be set for the emergence during the next few years of the one long foretold by Nostradamus.

 

FOR THE LASTEST SUMMARY BRIEFING ON THE SITUATION AND THE WAY OUT OF IT, GO TO

 

“A Letter To The Generals:  Saving Iraq and Saving The U.S.”

 

FOR A PDF VERSION, CLICK HERE.

 

PLEASE NOTE:  IT IS FAR TOO LATE FOR AMERICANS TO SOLVE THE IMPASSE IN IRAQ.  THIS DOCUMENT MAY BE OF SOME HELP TO IRAQI SHIA WHO CAN PROVIDE THE MORAL FORCE TO REUNIFY IRAQ ON THE ROAD TO PEACE AND JUSTICE.

 

HERE IS THE MAIN HOPE OUT OF THIS STRATEGIC IMPASSE:

 

AN AUTHENTIC ISLAMIC MORAL AUTHORITY IS ARISING AND IS BEGINNING TO FORGE A COALITION TO UNIFY IRAQ AND BRING CIRCUMSTANCES TO THE POINT WHERE THE AMERICANS CAN BE ASKED TO LEAVE.  QUICKLY. 

 

THE ARRANGEMENTS WILL BE FORGED BY JANUARY.  MORE PROBABLE THAN NOT, THE MULLAHS WILL ARRANGE THE ELECTION OF A GOVERNMENT WHICH ASSERTS ITS SOVEREIGNTY AND ASKS THE U.S. TO LEAVE VIRTUALLY IMMEDIATELY.

 

PASS THE WORD: THIS IS HOW IT WILL END IN IRAQ,

Michael Wells Mandeville,
The Hills of Arizona USA at mwman@earthlink.net
Master Website Index is at: http://www.michaelmandeville.com

Author of  several books, including: "Return of the Phoenix" at
http://www.michaelmandeville.com/phoenix/phoenix.htm
and "The Coming Economic Collapse of 2006" at
http://www.michaelmandeville.com/calendar/collapse2006.htm
_________________________________________________
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