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Monitoring The Changes In The Earth edited by Michael Wells Mandeville copyright August 18 2004
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FEATURES SUMMARIES WATCHES Click here for how to access these in the complete weekly
update which is posted on the WEB. Energy ET DATA SOURCES HEADLINES Links Daily Events Important Articles Please Note: This Bulletin is conceived as a
System. It is still in an early stage of evolution. We intend to
progressively link into this synopsis system all of the major news feeds of
Planet Earth which articulate aspects of the profound historical Change In
The Earth which is underway. |
Earth Changes Bulletin Update As Of August
18 2004 You have heard of the Weather Report?
Here exclusively is this week’s "Earth Report" - a short
review of the “big picture” about how the dynamic changes in the Sun and the
Earth are effecting our lives more and more intensely, with the latest
prognostications and predictions for weathermen, farmers, investors,
businessmen, and every man. You may click here for the full text of the Earth Changes Bulletin Update for this week,
or use this URL http://www.michaelmandeville.com/earthmonitor/ecbulletins/2004/ecb_August_18_04.htm CHAOS CONTINUES TO REIGN IN THE
ATMOSPHERE AND THE ETHERS UP AND DOWN THROUGH TO MID SEPTEMBER, WHILE THE
AMERICAN EMPIRE STANDS AT THE BRINK OF IGNITING MASS VIOLENCE IN THE MIDDLE
EAST – THE IMPERIAL FACTION PRESSES FOR HUMILIATION OF THE IMAM AND HIS
FOLLOWERS IN NAJAF WHILE EVERYBODY ELSE PRESSES FOR PEACE AND A REASONABLE
ACCOMODATION. EVEN THE GREAT AND
POWERFUL SEE THAT A TURNING POINT IS AT HAND, TWISTING TO AND FRO, TWISTING, TWISTING SLOWLY IN THE BREEZE TO
POINT TO MANY DIFFERENT FATES ON THE WHEEL OF DESTINY. On the geophysical
front,
FOR THIS AMAZING GLOBAL WARMING SUMMER, chaos continues to reign in the
atmosphere but the weather is muting out gradually. But not for long, the next major peak of
sunspots will probably hit 180 plus right around September 1-3 to produce
VERY WET LATE SUMMER STORMS .
Meanwhile, the weather is still trying to shake off the ionic stimulation
of August 13 when the Sunspot Count peaked at 160; storms and flooding is
extensive in many areas. Earth’s
tectonics remain calm despite the new moon syzygy but quake activity will
probably MILDLY respond in a few days to the approaching lunar perigee. Meanwhile, volcanism is nearly completely
muted. This muting of the Earth below
is likely to continue through August and deep into September, all the action
will be in the airs of the weather and the ethers of the human mind. El Nino is already shaping up in the trends
for the Winter of 2005 (which is more probable than not in the period of
2005/2006 according to Mandeville’s X Wave Vortex Model of El Nino). Let us hope this El Nino kills the Western
Drought (in On the geopolitical
front,
all is confused and our best hope is that it remains that way for a few more
months. Pray that it occurs to Bush
and everyone in the Pentagon that the easiest course of action is to do
exactly nothing and appoint Al-Sadr and his followers to whatever committee
occur to them. Here finally is the Zen
moment of Wisdom for the Bush family…let it be… But you no doubt suspect, as do I, that this is not likely
to be how this strange year reaches its conclusion. |
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NOTES Grayed items are not yet operational PREVIOUS UPDATES |
Program Thesis: What are we trying to do with the Earth Changes
Bulletin? Most news media do not handle technical and
scientific subjects like geology and earth sciences very well. They
don't understand the causes and effects of activities in the Sun and
Earth. Accordingly, they often do not understand if, when, how, why to
report earthquakes, volcanic activity, global warming effects The
treatment often sounds absent-minded, poorly qualified, and frequently
contains various technical errors. Seldom is the treatment entertaining
and genuinely educational. Based on new scientific principles which have
emerged during the past thirty years, many of the dynamic activities of the
Sun and Earth can be linked together to see how a range of effects are linked
together. This makes it possible to paint "the big picture"
into a perspective which explains many diverse events and processes,
especially climate and weather patterns such as global warming and El Nino.
From the "big picture", long range predictions can be made for
weeks and even months ahead. The result is sophisticated cutting-edge
information which is objective, balanced, astute, relevant, and can be easily
seen and appreciated by lay audiences. The perspective is generally
global, seldom parochial. For the framework of concepts, terms, and current
conditions which are used or described in the these Bulletins, see the Earth
Changes 2003 Almanac Calendar. To see the internet resources which are used to prepare this Update, take a look at the Earth Monitor front page - http://www.michaelmandeville.com/earthmontor/ |
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SPONSORING: THE COMING ECONOMIC COLLAPSE OF 2006, which puts today, tomorrow, and the trends together into the Cayce 25 year economic cycle which will “bottom” in 2006/2007. Click here to download THIS BOOK STILL COOKS AND IT WILL COOK THE
POLITICIANS AND THE ECONOMY ALL THE WAY THROUGH TO 2008: This synthesis
is far ahead of the daily digests in all halls of the internet media: so far (since may 2003) the track
record on this set of predictions for 2003-2008 is running 100 per
cent. If you have not purchased this book, you will remain ignorant of
the main dynamics which are rapidly changing everything. LATEST UPDATE NOTE AS OF AUGUST 11,
2004: Once again, the Collapse 2006 book TRACKS the unfolding real
dynamics, except that the forecasted events are tending to manifest three to
fours months earlier. All economic indicators for this July 2004 are
DOWN except of course the BIG ONE is UUUUUP (you know what it is, don’t
you?). Yes of course, OIL is climbing rapidly, partly based on a 34%
increase this year in world demand created largely in LATEST UPDATE NOTE AS OF JULY 21, 2004 – Several important economic
factors and/or indicators are now declining – IF TWO MORE MONTHS OF DECLINES
ARE FOUND IN THE KEY FACTORS, IT WILL BE MORE PROBABLE THAN NOT THAT
THE DJI HAS PEAKED AND IS NOW HEADED PROGRESSIVELY DOWN. ACCORDINGLY,
SEPTEMBER 2004 WILL REVEAL WHETHER THE 25 YEAR ECONOMIC DECLINE HAS FINALLY
HIT. IF THE MESSAGE IS “YES”, the Kerry-Edwards ticket most likely will
win decisively and the Republican control of Congress most likely will be
“cracked”. But there is room for considerable movement in all positions
among large numbers of people and it is clear that many events in this
fast-paced, unpredictable year could deflect ALL expectations. |
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HOUSEKEEPING Some portions of this week’s update was prepared one day
early on Tuesday, August 17, others one day later than usual, on August 19. MANDEVILLE IS ON THE RADIO EVERY WEDNESDAY WITH Alex Merklinger (Millennium Radio) show at 6
PM Arizona Time (also 6 PM Pacific Daylight Saving Time). Regular
Weekly Update For The Earth Changes Bulletin. To find Iway archives and
stations, see Millennium
Radio Network. |
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As stated in the “Coming Economic
Collapse of 2006”, the nature of human politics reflects the communication
abilities of the human species. As we transform the media, as we have
been on the Iway, we will transform human politics and the entire
Earth. Making the way for the New Earth is operationally equivalent to
making a new Media on the Iway. Not that that is all that there is to
it. Not by a long shot…but IT IS one of the essentials we need to
dissolve the blockages and dance around the tyrannies. |
SPIRITUAL WATCH How to converge and express the spirit of mass transformation
into manifestation, HOW to be, IS the question. How to do is the praxis of
the time. Examining this question, probing it, is the chief trendline
of this year. Keep flowing with the rising tide of spiritual energies
which are filling many thirsty souls. The old patterns are falling
away. Transition continues. Embrace new relationships which are trying
to form in your life if they are honest and straightforward and provide a new
openness. Forget the fears of the unknown, embrace all that which lifts your
life into the light of a greater understanding and relationship with the all.
Let go of everything which is disturbed, distorted, or
weird. Let go of everything which is forced, contrived, hidden,
manipulative, and/or constrictive. BREATH
FREE. EVERYTHING IS WORKING OUT DIFFERENTLY THAN PEOPLE ARE
CURRENTLY FEARING OR PROJECTING. IT WILL CONTINUE TO BE SO. In a
short while, some will come forth giving witness to a great energy which has
come into their lives, literally, as if the hand of God was upon them.
This is becoming more and more apparent and these words will have greater
meaning by the end of the year. |
The “Great Purification” predicted by the
Hopi, Maya, Q’ero, and many others continues. How amazing that these
ancient oral traditions could tune into last year and this one to advise us
that this was a period of profound historical turning involving The Great Purification of the Earth? For additional discussion, see the commentary of May 19, 2004 and the commentary of June 16, 2004. THE NEW BASIS IS GESTATING…. THE time to link the spiritual communities
of the Earth. The Whole Earth. IT HAS BECOME URGENT TO LINK THE SPIRITUAL
COMMUNITIES WITHIN A BROAD MOVEMENT WHICH PROVIDES NEW CURRENTS OF SPIRITUAL
LEADERSHIP. |
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FOR THE
MOST PART: Steady as she goes. A slow acceleration in the shifting of the
poles has been underway for perhaps the past 100 years and the last three
decades has shown an increase in the rate of acceleration. This has
appeared to accelerate even more during the past decade. |
POLAR MOTION What is happening to the
motion of the Earth. For the overall summary of the status
of polar motion CLICK HERE. To see the current
graphs of polar motion, CLICK HERE. Scroll down the page until you get to the black
and white graphs with show the x and y coordinates of the North Spin Axis on
two separate graphs. Once again, no change this week. The Y Max point,
reported three weeks ago, has hardly been passed, the North Pole Axis seems
to be moving away from the Y Max point slightly more slowly than at other
times. AS OBSERVED LAST WEEK: We have passed the “Y Max”
last week. Y Max is the point in the spiral track of the North Spin Axis when
it is moving as far to the left on the XY chart of polar motion which is
maintained by the IERS agency in As the Spin Axis begins its return towards the X Axis, the
seismic activity may mirror what happened as it was moving outwards.
This may occur during the next Full Moon or New Moon in September. http://maia.usno.navy.mil/xplot2.gif http://maia.usno.navy.mil/yplot2.gif |
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MAGNETIC POLES – SHIFTING What is happening to the
magnetic fields of the Earth. No real change during the past
year: a magnetic pole shift is not something to be very concerned about
within this decade at least. Currently, there is little of note. Despite many
claims, there are no apparent trends which will hold up to historical
analysis of many different regions of the Earth. |
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Asteroids As of June 04, NASA’S ESTIMATE: “Potentially Hazardous Asteroids (PHAs) are space rocks
larger than approximately 100m that can come closer to Earth than 0.05 AU. None of the known PHAs (asteroids) are on a
collision course with our planet, although astronomers are finding
new ones all the time.” |
PLANETS & ALIGNMENTS A new almanac is being constructed. It still is not
complete. August is a bad time to get real work accomplished.
August is for people to relate to each other and the REALLY real world. THE MOON We are in Lunation #1010 with the New Moon on August 16.
As of August 17, the Moon this day is North of the Equator (in its North Node) 3 days past the New Moon. It
is now approximately 382,000 KM from the Earth. It is already 9% of the Full
Moon (visibility or phase). The next Full Moon is August 30 at 2:22 UTC.
We are still in the NEW MOON SYZYGY (we
entered it about August 14 and will leave it August 19). (Perigee = the Moon’s closest approach to the
Earth during its monthly orbit which increases gravitational influence of the
Moon by as much as 15%; Apogee = the Moon’s greatest distance from the Earth
during its monthly orbit). (Berkland has a more complex formula
for syzygy and his dates are often different.) For details see the Syzygy website. THE NEXT PLANETARY ALIGNMENTS For any “Home Planet Software” charts of the
planets which are shown here or through URLS which are provided on this page,
you can decipher which planet is which by counting the orbital rings if you
do not know the signs which denote the planets. Mercury is 1 closest to the
Sun, Venus is 2, Earth is 3, Mars is 4, Jupiter is 5, Saturn is 6, Uranus is
7, Neptune is 8, Pluto is 9, and both Planet X and Nibiru is bogus. We are now entering the final throes of an unusual set of
planetary alignments. From August 3 to September 8, the three closest
inner planets will be in very close angles to each other. Two dates stand out: Mercury will align with Earth
on August 23 and with Venus on September 8 to finish up a probably
tempestuous season of exceptional solar activity. PREDICTION FULFILLED NOT QUITE: “A large peak in the sunspot count is most
likely to form up from about August 18 through to August 20. It is MOST
LIKELY GOING TO BE A HUGE, WIDE PEAK IN THE RANGE OF 180-200.” Actually it formed up August 13, only
reached 160, and fell off rapidly. Is
more or in store. More probable than
not: NO. LIST OF ALIGNMENTS FROM AUGUST 2004 THROUGH SEPTEMBER 2004 Mercury | Mercury | Earth | Uranus ( Mercury | Venus ***Mars is in near alignment with Jupiter as Mercury
catches up to form a nearly a straight alignment with Mercury, within 5
degrees, with all other planets widely dispersed ***Mercury | Mars | Jupiter perfected PLANETARY ALIGNMENTS FOR THE NEXT 10 MONTHS These will all be listed on the Calendar in a few
weeks. For the next 10 months, four particular periods stand out for
their potential to induce major reactions in the solar atmosphere and pull
out huge ionic storms, high sunspot counts, and major effects on the Earth’s
weather. The Summer Knot July 27 through
September 8 Major ups and downs in the sunspot counts, at least three major storm fronts betwixt
now and September 15 or so. The Triple Whammy September Surprise September
28, 2004 - October
1, 2004 Mercury | Mars | Jupiter in a triple alignment Spots peak about the Fall Equinox and Weather turns into
chaos by about October 1, followed by extreme
Fall flooding by the middle of October in the usual places. The Apogee At or near the Earth’s Apogee (closest approach to the
Sun) Mercury will once again align progressively with the inner planets
during a 30 day period. Expect an
INTENSELY STORMY WINTER. December 30, 2004 Mercury | Jupiter The Spring Grand Alignment Jupiter | Earth | Mercury | Sun | Venus Beginning by about March 7, at least major peaks in the
sunspot count should produce three major waves of early Spring storm fronts.
The largest peak should form up about the Spring Equinox and the
largest storm front should blow in about the time of the Grand Alignment March 14, 2005 Mercury | Saturn Summer Ping Pong June 7,
2005 Venus
| Saturn with Mercury moving up in close alignment, followed on June 10 ,
2005 with Mercury forming a triplet with Venus and Saturn as Earth couples
with Pluto and |
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PLANET WATCHING For background and the current information on
observable planets. |
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SUNSPOTS The events in the solar atmosphere which impact weather and climate patterns, the magnetic field and auroras, including forecasts for the week, month, and year ahead. CLICK HERE for background information. To follow the numbers below, click here to view the Solar Cycle 23 Chart. Or, get the data in a NOAA Table. The Sunspot Count on August 19 was 60 and falling. After the sunspot count peaked
at 160 on August 13, with the Solar Flux Index peaked at 155, both counts
began to fall. As of August 19, the Flux was at 121 and sliding downwards
while the sunspot count was 60 and showing signs of hanging at that point or
so.. Here are the numbers from the
few days since the last peak: 2004 08 13 149 160 1800 2004 08 14 149 111 1690 2004 08 15 139 98 1730 2004 08 16 134 68 1810 2004 08 17 135 63 1410
2004 08 18 140
53 750 2004 08 19 121
60 660 We have no doubt had the peak
for the August
19, 2004 alignment of Mercury | Mercury | Earth | Uranus (Neptune Couple) alignment? Last week I predicted: “both counts are likely going to climb much
higher quite rapidly during August 18 through to August 23, with probably an
up and down jiggle or two in the counts between 100 and 200. The high peak is MOST
LIKELY GOING TO BE A HUGE, WIDE PEAK IN THE RANGE OF 180-200, right about
August 15-20.” Is this prediction still valid? Could be.
They could rise the next day or so to high numbers. High numbers of sunspots can appear
literally out of “nowhere” in the Sun’s poor understood atmosphere. BUT NOT PROBABLY.
Or if there is another peak, it will be small, possibly not even
grazing 100. Only Mercury and Sol The Father know for sure. BUT THIS MAY BE UNLIKELY AT THIS LATE POINT
BECAUSE GIANT SUNSPOT 649 (CLUSTER) IS ROTATING OUT OF VIEW. It would “appear” that the counts are more
likely to continue to decline. Place your bet on the cosmic wheel and watch it all
unfold. Regardless, the alignment on September 8, 2004 between Mercury | Venus should bring
another high spike in the Sunspot Count, at least as high as the 160 of five
days ago, probably close to 160. This
peak should form up about September one and bring late Summer storms no later
than September 10. AS OBSERVED LAST WEEK AND AS SHOULD BE WATCHED ESPECIALLY
THROUGH THIS AUGUST AND SEPTEMBER: It is probably the huge variation of
size which is currently driving the tremendous influx of “x” dimension
energy, possibly scalar wave energy, which is effecting psychics and living
creatures. If so, we have a new variable to consider. Up to now I
have ignored size to keep the task of correlation easy and also within the
same pattern as the correlations with the count in previous centuries.
But most likely, serious students need to examine the “area” variable and
look for correlates. MONTHLY AVERAGES IN SOLAR CYCLE 23 JULY’S
AVERAGE DAILY COUNT IN THE ISSN SERIES WAS UP BY NEARLY 10 FROM 43.2 TO
51. Somewhere the Sun took a wrong turn. This rise in the count
is in the opposite direction to where it should be going. August’s
average, which is predicted by computers to drop to 34, may also hover near
50.. Over
all, the sunspot average count (ISSN) for February 2004 was 46.0. March
2004 was even higher with the ISSN average count at 48.9 April’s
count was radically lower at 39.3. The May
2004 average count of 41.5 was SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN in April. June 2004
was higher still with an average count of 43.2.
Despite the high count for June, the average solar flux was progressively
down for the year so far. Because of the next round of planetary alignments, August
could also be higher than the predicted average sunspot curves (based on
computer modeling of the Solar Sunspot Cycles). |
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SOLAR ACTIVITY As reported by NASA/NOAA unless otherwise
stated. (Sudden surprises and huge storms are always possible even
during sunspot minima periods such as the one we are currently headed
into). Descriptions and numbers are based on numbers as given by iway
sources at about 1:00 – 3:00 PM The Solar Wind was quite mild at : 348.1 km/s this day while pushing a density
at . 2.6 protons/cm3”. The Fluxgate Chart
at the University of Alaska (which measures magnetic disturbances in the
Earth’s atmosphere created by solar winds and ion storms) was showing very
little disturbance today (August 17). (as of this time, about 2 PM Mountain time BUT NASA REPORTS:
“Giant sunspot 649 unleashed an X2-class solar flare on August 18th at
1740 UT. The powerful explosion hurled a coronal mass ejection (movie) into
space, but not toward Earth; the blast won't likely spark terrestrial
auroras. Solar observers should pay
attention to the sun's western limb this week. Sunspot 649 is there, and for
the next few days glowing-hot prominences will jut into space from the
vicinity of the 'spot--a lovely show.” NASA PREDICTS AS OF AUGUST 17: During the next 24/48
hours, probability for an M-class solar flare is at 30% and for an X-class
solar flare is at 5%, with a generally 1% to 30% probability for minor to
severe geomagnetic disturbances during the next 24/48 hours, depending upon
latitude (higher the latitude, higher the probability). Jan Alvestad reports: “The geomagnetic field was
quiet to unsettled on August 18. Solar wind speed ranged between 315 and 364
km/sec…At midnight there were 3 spotted regions on the visible disk. The
solar flare activity level was high. A total of 18 C and 1 X class events was
recorded during the day. Region 10656
rotated out of view at the southwest limb and was very active during the day.
Another major flare is possible today while the region is just behind the
limb...August 18: A CME was observed after the X1 flare in the afternoon.
Most of the ejected material was observed over the southwest limb, however, there
were nearly simultaneous emissions over the east limb, and there is a slight
chance that this was a (faint) full halo CME.” Jan Alvestad predicts: “A coronal hole (CH110) in
the southern hemisphere will likely rotate to a geoeffective position on August
22. The geomagnetic field is expected
to be quiet to unsettled most of August 19. Late on August 19 or early on
August 20 there is a possibility of a CME impact with unsettled to minor
storm conditions.“ Alvestad also
predicts a 0% probability of coronal holes, a 20%-60% probability of CME’s,
and a 60%-100% probability of M and/or X Class Flares. |
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WORLD WEATHER SUMMARY Those who have been following the patterns have
seen that the correlations between sunspot peaks and major storm fronts
coming in off the oceans to track across the continents is roughly pretty
good, sometimes very much exactly on the mark. Accordingly, our
“sloppycasts” (approximate continental weather patterns) this past few years
have proven out to be fairly worthwhile. AS OBSERVED LAST MONTH: weather patterns are tweaked
out into chaotic extremes which fit no averages or generalities. Forget
predictions, expect anything. THIS CONDITION WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
SUMMER, CHAOS ALTERNATING WITH PERIODS OF CALMING. Unfortunately the drought problem in the EARTH WEATHER PREDICTION FOR THE NEXT SEVEN
DAYS (Northern Hemisphere) This “sloppycast” is
based on sunspot counts, planetary alignments, and visual data shown on
satellite and radar. STAND PAT: IS ANY PATTERN ANYWHERE NORMAL?
Nope. I can’t keep up with it and therefore won’t. MORE OF
THE SAME. No predictions will call the tune for any
area. More extremes during the next 30
days will be quite “normal”. EARTH WEATHER PREDICTION FOR SUMMER SEASON (Northern Hemisphere) This “sloppycast” is
based on sunspot counts, planetary alignments, and visual data shown on
satellite and radar. STANDING PREDCTION FOR THIS SUMMER: The output of
the Sun is currently too volatile and unpredictable. Accordingly,
expect 50% probability of anything. This is my last prediction related to
general weather patterns for this summer. SOUTHWEST CONDITIONS This “sloppycast” is based on six years of
living in the USA Pacific Southwest, the sunspot counts, planetary
alignments, and visual data shown on satellite and radar. The Summer Monsoon has definitely arrived, somewhat late,
for most of the higher elevations.
Some areas have had a normal rainfall but many areas, especially the
lower elevations, have not. In the
Sonoran Plain it is quite normal these days to see the thunderstorms generate
huge dust storms, lightening, lots of clouds, but no rain or what is called
dry rain, where precipitation from high clouds dries up and evaporates before
it hits the ground. The dust of the Dry Thunderstorms obscured vision and
caused a huge pile up of trucks and autos on Highway I-10 last week. A large number of trucks and cars were
incinerated in the resulting fires and there were several deaths and a
multitude of injuries. In our area at the 2200 foot elevation, the rainfall so
far this year is only one third normal levels. Thus for us and a large part of the
Southwest, THE GENERAL DROUGHT IN THE STRANGELY THOUGH, THIS WEEK HAS BEEN
REMARKABLY OVERCAST AND RELATIVELY COOL A GREAT PORTION OF THE TIME. As reported last week, we need at least 8
inches of rain during the next 27 days and so far we simply are not getting
it. Since ionic disturbance of the
Earth’s Atmosphere (due to high peaks in the Sunspot Count) will continue
through this monsoon period, sending all the moisture to the North and into
the high elevations, it is doubtful we are going to break the drought this
year. Only the Winter of 2005 remains a hope at
this point. At this point, everyone in
the Southwest should begin to pray in earnest for a HUGE El Nino
effect. During the last El Nino, the Southwest received substantial
water. On this score, Fortune may shine. See below. |
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EL NINO & LA NINA WATCH EL NINO ON THE WAY, MORE PROBABLE THAN NOT. CONTINUING THIS WEEK: Conditions are warming up
quite rapidly along the central portion of the Pacific Equator, midway
between South America and the MORE DEFINITELY THIS WEEK: Purely in accordance with the X Wave
correlation which I discovered in the Vortex Tectonics Model, I PREDICT
AN EL NINO IN 2005. In accordance with the trend in Global Warming, I PREDICT
A VERY STRONG EL NINO, which should produce a very wet, warm winter for the
Pacific coast and the Southwest. Hopefully this will finally break the
drought in the Western U.S. ADDITIONAL NOTE: The year 2004 and/or 2005, in accordance
with the 100 year X Wave Graph of the motion of the spin axis in Chandler’s
Wobble, COULD BE EL NINO YEARS. Graphs of various El Nino periods
seem to show that the beginning of temperature build-up can occur as late as
April of an El Nino year. So 2005 may not be callable until early
Spring 2005. |
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KEEP WATCHING THE ARCTIC, ANTARCTIC,
and the desert zones. These areas are the most objective front line observatories
of the climate shift. |
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