PHOENIX FIVE EARTH CHANGES BULLETIN

Monitoring The Changes In The Earth

edited by Michael Wells Mandeville copyright August 11 2004

                                                                                                             

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Please Note:  This Bulletin is conceived as a System.  It is still in an early stage of evolution.  We intend to progressively link into this synopsis system all of the major news feeds of Planet Earth which articulate aspects of the profound historical Change In The Earth which is underway.

 

 

 

Earth Changes Bulletin Update As Of August 11 2004

You have heard of the Weather Report?  Here exclusively is this week’s  "Earth Report" - a short review of the “big picture” about how the dynamic changes in the Sun and the Earth are effecting our lives more and more intensely, with the latest prognostications and predictions for weathermen, farmers, investors, businessmen, and every man.

 

You may click here for the full text of the Earth Changes Bulletin Update for this week, or use this  URL

http://www.michaelmandeville.com/earthmonitor/ecbulletins/2004/ecb_August_11_04.htm

 

 

ANOTHER MAJOR PEAK IN THE NUMBER OF SUNSPOTS IS FORMING UP UNDER MERCURY’S ALIGNMENTS EVEN AS CHAOS CONTINUES TO REIGN IN THE ATMOSPHERE, WEATHER, AND THE MIND OF HUMANITY FROM THE LAST MAJOR PEAK.  EARTH’S TECTONICS REMAIN CALM WHILE AMERICAN ECONOMICS SINKS UNDER THE WEIGHT OF INCOMPETENCE AND AMERICAN GOVERNANCE REACHES NEW LEVELS OF ABSURDITIY, DISTORTION, LYING, INTERNATIONAL BETRAYAL, CRIMES, TREASON, AND INCOMPETENCE.  Who could believe such depths of denial, stupidity, and grossly obvious manipulations are possible?

 

On the geophysical front,  FOR THIS AMAZING GLOBAL WARMING SUMMER, MORE THAN EVER, solar vortex forces in the Cosmos are UNPREDICTABLE AND UNEXPECTABLY INTENSELY STRONG WHILE A GROWING RASH OF STRANGE EXTREMES IN THE ENVIRONMENT NEARLY EVERYWHERE SIGNAL INCREASING CLIMATE SHIFT FROM GLOBAL WARMING.  Once again, sunspot counts are rising rapidly, reaching 93 on August 10 .  Major sunspot and solar storm activity is likely to grow dramatically during the next week through to approximately August 21.  Weather forces will continue to accelerate in response and the Earth’s atmosphere will spin into another extreme period of weather chaos.  The Southwest and general Western drought has returned with a terrible vengeance even as thousands die in Bangladesh and other flood prone areas from floods.  Major planetary alignments in August and September will keep everyone guessing for the next couple of months even as climatologists watch carefully the rising heat on the Pacific Equator which may signal the advent of El Nino for the Winter of 2005 (which is more probable than not in the period of 2005/2006 according to Mandeville’s X Wave Vortex Model of El Nino). It is a terrible time to be an eco-system on Earth.  But despite the turmoil from above, relative peace reigns below.  Volcanic activity is down slightly from the level of the last few weeks and earthquake activity this past week was insignificant and virtually unremarkable. This muting of the Earth is likely to continue through August and deep into September.

 

On the geopolitical front, the strange year is now marching rapidly to a conclusion. Against a regime which is widely despised throughout the world  (the amazingly bizarre Nouveau Reich State of Fuhrer Bush which is nakedly obvious to most of humanity except for large numbers of Americans who have been captured by Mass Broadcast Sorcerers who brazenly pander violence, filth, lies, denial, policies of brutal proactive aggression dominance, and weapons of mass distraction on behalf of the Plutocracy) the Democrats contrive to push one of the largest Hot Air Balloons of all times. As the faithful flock to perform their traditional mantras and prayers on behalf of the “Great American Dream”, one can only wish they could succeed in achieving a fundamental realignment of American politics.  Sustaining such hopes,  Kerry unexpectedly demonstrates great personal power and charisma in thoughtful, intelligent speaking.  But one cannot avoid noticing the numbers of Republicans in Congress and from such numbers it more probable than not that the most that can be achieved for American domestic policy is stalemate and a virtually gridlocked government.    Accordingly, with a victory for Kerry the struggle for the soul of America will have just barely begun.  But even so, the seeds of great change are now being sown.  Kerry has re-oriented the party from the tepid careerism of the Clinton/Gore years to embrace an aggressive progressivism.  Gephardt and Gore and other don’t-rock-the-boat careerists are old shoe.  Sharpton, Kucinich, and Dean are the moral trumpets of the newly awakened party.  If Kerry can be elected, the Plutocracy will be partially trumped, competence can be brought in to resolve the Tragedy in Iraq, and the floodgates will be open for a flood of new agendas and national discussions to address the age old imperatives of decency, self-respect, and equality.

 

Go to detailed synopsis…

 

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NOTES

Grayed items are not yet operational

 

PREVIOUS
WEEKLY

UPDATES

 

 

August 11, 2004

July 28, 2004

July 21, 2004

July 14, 2004

July 7, 2004

June 30, 2004

June 23, 2004

June 16, 2004

June 9, 2004

June 2, 2004

May 26, 2004

May 19, 2004

May 12, 2004

 

 

Program Thesis:

What are we trying to do with the Earth Changes Bulletin?

Most news media do not handle technical and scientific subjects like geology and earth sciences very well.  They don't understand the causes and effects of activities in the Sun and Earth.  Accordingly, they often do not understand if, when, how, why to report earthquakes, volcanic activity, global warming effects  The treatment often sounds absent-minded, poorly qualified, and frequently contains various technical errors.  Seldom is the treatment entertaining and genuinely educational.

Based on new scientific principles which have emerged during the past thirty years, many of the dynamic activities of the Sun and Earth can be linked together to see how a range of effects are linked together.  This makes it possible to paint "the big picture" into a perspective which explains many diverse events and processes, especially climate and weather patterns such as global warming and El Nino. From the "big picture", long range predictions can be made for weeks and even months ahead.  The result is sophisticated cutting-edge information which is objective, balanced, astute, relevant, and can be easily seen and appreciated by lay audiences.  The perspective is generally global, seldom parochial. For the framework of concepts, terms, and current conditions which are used or described in the these Bulletins, see the Earth Changes 2003 Almanac Calendar.

 

To see the internet resources which are used to prepare this Update, take a look at the Earth Monitor front page - http://www.michaelmandeville.com/earthmontor/

 

 

 

 

SPONSORING:

THE COMING ECONOMIC COLLAPSE OF 2006, which puts today, tomorrow, and the trends together into the Cayce 25 year economic cycle which will “bottom” in 2006/2007.  Click here to download

 

THIS BOOK STILL COOKS AND IT WILL COOK THE POLITICIANS AND THE ECONOMY ALL THE WAY THROUGH TO 2008:  This synthesis is far ahead of the daily digests in all halls of the internet media: so far (since may 2003) the track record on this set of predictions for 2003-2008 is running 100 per cent.  If you have not purchased this book, you will remain ignorant of the main dynamics which are rapidly changing everything. 

 

LATEST UPDATE NOTE AS OF AUGUST 11, 2004:  Once again, the Collapse 2006 book TRACKS the unfolding real dynamics, except that the forecasted events are tending to manifest three to fours months earlier.  All economic indicators for this July 2004 are DOWN except of course the BIG ONE is UUUUUP (you know what it is, don’t you?).  Yes of course, OIL is climbing rapidly, partly based on a 34% increase this year in world demand created largely in ASIA.  The progressive devaluation of the PETRO DOLLAR is now unfolding rapidly, despite the best expressed intentions of the House of Saud to hold dollar price stability for their partners, the Bush Crime Syndicate.

 

LATEST UPDATE NOTE AS OF JULY 21, 2004 – Several important  economic factors and/or indicators are now declining – IF TWO MORE MONTHS OF DECLINES ARE FOUND IN THE KEY FACTORS,  IT WILL BE MORE PROBABLE THAN NOT THAT THE DJI HAS PEAKED AND IS NOW HEADED PROGRESSIVELY DOWN.  ACCORDINGLY, SEPTEMBER 2004 WILL REVEAL WHETHER THE 25 YEAR ECONOMIC DECLINE HAS FINALLY HIT.  IF THE MESSAGE IS “YES”, the Kerry-Edwards ticket most likely will win decisively and the Republican control of Congress most likely will be “cracked”.  But there is room for considerable movement in all positions among large numbers of people and it is clear that many events in this fast-paced, unpredictable year could deflect ALL expectations.

 

LATEST UPDATE NOTE AS OF JUNE 30, 2004 – Conditions appear to be settling down and stabilizing, which is about the only thing which can happen in the dog days of High Summer, especially in hot arid desert regions with little to poor air conditioning.  As people vacation escape or stay in place to survive, all the contradictions, struggles, and violence will appear to abate and this will give Bush’s Imperial Faction the appearance of being on a roll with some momentum, but people will be too busy elsewhere to notice.  Things will “cook” on the back burner until September.  Until then, all markets and equities will flat line after a little spurt of minor adjustments from the sorcery of Greenspan’s interest rate increase.  During the Fall, to make up for lost time, many pots will boil over in all directions on all topics.

 

LATEST UPDATE NOTE AS OF JUNE 16, 2004 – The loss of confidence in the U.S. is still in an early stage.  The next six months will be the most difficult period since the Vietnam tragedy – and indeed it is likely to surpass anything which has emerged since the 1930’s.

 

LATEST UPDATE NOTE june 9, 2004 – no change since this note of  MAY 12, 2004:   As discussed this week and herein, the Collapse 2006 schedule, more likely than not, is currently accelerating as a result of worldwide loss of confidence in the elementary competence of the united states government at the highest levels.

 

 

 

 

 

HOUSEKEEPING

 

MANDEVILLE IS ON THE RADIO EVERY WEDNESDAY WITH

Alex Merklinger (Millennium Radio) show at 6 PM Arizona Time (also 6 PM Pacific Daylight Saving Time).   Regular Weekly Update For The Earth Changes Bulletin.  To find Iway archives and stations, see Millennium Radio Network

 

 

 

Begin Synopsis

 

 As stated in the “Coming Economic Collapse of 2006”, the nature of human politics reflects the communication abilities of the human species.  As we transform the media, as we have been on the Iway, we will transform human politics and the entire Earth.  Making the way for the New Earth is operationally equivalent to making a new Media on the Iway. Not that that is all that there is to it.  Not by a long shot…but IT IS one of the essentials we need to dissolve the blockages and dance around the tyrannies.

 

 

SPIRITUAL WATCH

How to converge and express the spirit of mass transformation into manifestation, HOW to be, IS the question. How to do is the praxis of the time.  Examining this question, probing it, is the chief trendline of this year.

KEEP FLOWING WITH THE RISING TIDE OF SPIRITUAL ENERGIES WHICH ARE FILLING MANY THIRSTY SOULS.  THE OLD PATTERNS ARE FALLING AWAY.  TRANSISTION CONTINUES. EMBRACE NEW RELATIONSHIPS WHICH ARE TRYING TO FORM IN YOUR LIFE IF THEY ARE HONEST AND STRAIGHTFORWARD AND PROVIDE A NEW OPENESS. FORGET THE FEARS OF THE UNKOWN, EMBRACE ALL THAT WHICH LIFTS YOUR LIFE INTO THE LIGHT OF A GREATER UNDERSTANDING AND RELATIONSHIP WITH THE ALL.

 

LET GO OF EVERYTHING WHICH IS DISTURBED, DISTORTED, OR WEIRD.  LET GO OF EVERYTHING WHICH IS FORCED, CONTRIVED, HIDDEN, MANIPULATIVE, AND/OR CONSTRICTIVE.

 

BREATH FREE.

 

EVERYTHING IS WORKING OUT DIFFERENTLY THAN PEOPLE ARE CURRENTLY FEARING OR PROJECTING.  IT WILL CONTINUE TO BE SO.  In a short while, some will come forth giving witness to a great energy which has come into their lives, literally, as if the hand of God was upon them.  This is becoming more and more apparent and these words will have greater meaning by the end of the year.

 

Did you notice the number of Black Ministers preaching social justice at the Democratic National Convention?  God has become socially acceptable in Democratic politics and the door for a spiritual transformation of American politics HAS NEVER BEEN MORE OPEN. 

 

I believe I see that secular materialism is on the way out and impersonal 20th century academic sociopsych-quack is on the way out. Meaning and purpose within a higher being are on the way in.

 

 

 

 

The “Great Purification” predicted by the Hopi, Maya, Q’ero, and many others continues.  How amazing that these ancient oral traditions could tune into last year and this one to advise us that this was a period of profound historical turning involving

The Great Purification

of the Earth? For additional discussion, see the commentary of May 19, 2004 and the commentary of June 16, 2004.

 

THE NEW BASIS IS GESTATING….

THE time to link the spiritual communities of the Earth. The Whole Earth. IT HAS BECOME URGENT TO LINK THE SPIRITUAL COMMUNITIES WITHIN A BROAD MOVEMENT WHICH PROVIDES NEW CURRENTS OF SPIRITUAL LEADERSHIP.

 

 

FOR THE MOST PART: Steady as she goes. A slow acceleration in the shifting of the poles has been underway for perhaps the past 100 years and the last three decades has shown an increase in the rate of acceleration.  This has appeared to accelerate even more during the past decade.

 

 

POLAR MOTION

What is happening to the motion of the Earth. For the overall summary of the status of polar motion CLICK HERE.  To see the current graphs of polar motion, CLICK HERE. Scroll down the page until you get to the black and white graphs with show the x and y coordinates of the North Spin Axis on two separate graphs.

 

No change this week.  The Y Max point, reported two weeks ago, has hardly been passed, the North Pole Axis seems to be moving away from the Y Max point slightly more slowly than at other times.

 

AS OBSERVED LAST WEEK:  We have passed the “Y Max” last week. Y Max is the point in the spiral track of the North Spin Axis when it is moving as far to the left on the XY chart of polar motion which is maintained by the IERS agency in France.  “Y Max” is where the North Spin Axis is titled as far as it can go towards North America down Longitude West 90.   The motion towards “Y Max” may have caused the increased movement of the North American Tectonic Plate to produce the interesting quake activity of the previous weeks.

 

As the Spin Axis begins its return towards the X Axis, the seismic activity may mirror what happened as it was moving outwards.  This may occur during the next Full Moon or New Moon in September.

 

http://maia.usno.navy.mil/xplot2.gif

 

http://maia.usno.navy.mil/yplot2.gif

 

 

 

 

MAGNETIC POLES – SHIFTING

What is happening to the magnetic fields of the Earth.  No real change during the past year:  a magnetic pole shift is not something to be very concerned about within this decade at least.

 

Currently, there is little of note.  Despite many claims, there are no apparent trends which will hold up to historical analysis of many different regions of the Earth.

 

 

 

 

Asteroids

As of June 04,

NASA’S

ESTIMATE:

“Potentially Hazardous Asteroids (PHAs) are space rocks larger than approximately 100m that can come closer to Earth than 0.05 AU. None of the known PHAs  (asteroids) are on a collision course with our planet, although astronomers are finding new ones all the time.”

 

 

PLANETS & ALIGNMENTS
(all time coordinates here and elsewhere are in UTC unless otherwise noted, dates for planetary alignments are derived from Home Planet Software using PC graphics, due to limitations of software and graphics display, actual timing may be off as much as three days, for scientific work, use a professional ephemeris for exact dates).  For background and the current information on planetary alignments go to the Earth Changes Almanac Calendar.  The Almanac lays out the planets and the lunar phases for entire year in advance to allow you to find the best and worst periods of weather, earthquake activity, ethereal “lunar” influences, etc.  

 

A new almanac is being constructed.  It still is not complete.  August is a bad time to get real work accomplished.  August is for people to relate to each other and the REALLY real world.

 

THE MOON

 

We are still in Lunation #1009 and will enter Lunation 1010 with the New Moon on August 16 at 01:24 UTC.  The Moon this day is now North of the Equator (in its North Node) 25 days past the last New Moon.  It is now approximately 405,476 KM from the Earth. It is already 15% of the Full Moon (visibility or phase).  The next Full Moon is August 30. 

 

We are very close to the NEW MOON SYZYGY (we will enter it about August 14).  It should be relatively weak for quake activity because the Moon is relatively far away from the Earth and is close to its Apogee point.

 

(Perigee = the Moon’s closest approach to the Earth during its monthly orbit which increases gravitational influence of the Moon by as much as 15%; Apogee = the Moon’s greatest distance from the Earth during its monthly orbit).   (Berkland has a more complex formula for syzygy and his dates are often different.)  For details see the Syzygy website.

 

THE NEXT PLANETARY ALIGNMENTS

For any “Home Planet Software” charts of the planets which are shown here or through URLS which are provided on this page, you can decipher which planet is which by counting the orbital rings if you do not know the signs which denote the planets. Mercury is 1 closest to the Sun, Venus is 2, Earth is 3, Mars is 4, Jupiter is 5, Saturn is 6, Uranus is 7, Neptune is 8, Pluto is 9, and both Planet X and Nibiru is bogus.

 

We are now entering the final throes of an unusual set of planetary alignments.  From August 3 to September 8, the three closest inner planets will be in very close angles to each other. 

 

Two dates stand out:  Mercury will align with Earth on August 23 and with Venus on September 8 to finish up a probably tempestuous season of exceptional solar activity.  

 

A large peak in the sunspot count is most likely to form up from about August 11 through to August 20.  It is MOST LIKELY GOING TO BE A HUGE, WIDE PEAK IN THE RANGE OF 180-200

 

LIST OF ALIGNMENTS FROM AUGUST 2004 THROUGH SEPTEMBER 2004

 

August 3, 2004

Earth | Neptune
Mercury Venus Earth Diamond
Uranus Neptune coupled

August 19, 2004  

Mercury | Neptune Literal
with Earth and Uranus coupled
August 23, 2004 

Mercury | Earth | Uranus (Neptune Couple)
September 8, 2004

Mercury | Venus
Most of the planets in general now begin breaking apart widely, the "Summer Knot" become  untied. From About September 10 onwards,  Mars and Jupiter will be in a slow forming virtual alignment

***September 28, 2004

***Mars is in near alignment with Jupiter as Mercury catches up to form a nearly a straight alignment with Mercury, within 5 degrees, with all other planets widely dispersed
***October 1, 2004

***Mercury | Mars | Jupiter perfected

PLANETARY ALIGNMENTS FOR THE NEXT 10 MONTHS

 

These will all be listed on the Calendar in a few weeks.  For the next 10 months, four particular periods stand out for their potential to induce major reactions in the solar atmosphere and pull out huge ionic storms, high sunspot counts, and major effects on the Earth’s weather.

 

The Summer Knot  July 27 through September 8

 

Major ups and downs in the sunspot counts, at least three major storm fronts betwixt now and September 15 or so.

 

The Triple Whammy September Surprise September 28, 2004 - October 1, 2004

 

Mercury | Mars | Jupiter in a triple alignment

Spots peak about the Fall Equinox and Weather turns into chaos by about October 1, followed by extreme Fall flooding by the middle of October in the usual places.

 

The Apogee Six Way Cluster Bomb

 

At or near the Earth’s Apogee (closest approach to the Sun) Mercury will once again align progressively with the inner planets during a 30 day period.  Expect an INTENSELY STORMY WINTER.

December 30, 2004  Mercury | Jupiter
Venus and Mars still close and Earth near Saturn alignment
January 13, 2005  Mercury & Mars close couple to
Venus | Pluto and Earth | Saturn
January 27, 2005  Mercury | Venus with Pluto close couple

 

The Spring Grand Alignment

Jupiter | Earth | Mercury | Sun | Venus

 

Beginning by about March 7, at least major peaks in the sunspot count should produce three major waves of early Spring storm fronts.  The largest peak should form up about the Spring Equinox and the largest storm front should blow in about the time of the Grand Alignment

 

March 14, 2005  Mercury | Saturn
Spring Alignments begin in three main spirals
March 21,2005  Mars | Pluto with a spiral forming in
Mercury | Earth | Jupiter and another in Venus | Uranus
March 30, 2005 Jupiter | Earth | Mercury | Sun | Venus
form a virtual straight line through the solar system with Mars and Pluto still closely coupled. Observers on Earth will only be able to physically see Jupiter rising on the Eastern horizon just after sunset and Saturn close to the Mid-heavens in the Western half of the sky. In the very early morning Mars and Uranus visible

 

Summer Ping Pong

 

June 7, 2005  Venus | Saturn with Mercury moving up in close alignment, followed on June 10 , 2005 with Mercury forming a triplet with Venus and Saturn as Earth couples with Pluto and
Mars | Neptune.  The timing of these alignments between these planets is not exact, the electromagnetic balances of the solar system will shift in a complex way, probably producing a number of ups and downs.

 

 

 

 

 

 

PLANET WATCHING  

For background and the current information on observable planets.

 

Interesting article about electrical phenomena on Saturn discovered through the Cassini Space Probe.  Apparently it is far more active and variable than 20 years ago.

http://space.com/scienceastronomy/cassini_lightning_040805.html

 

NASA: “VENUS & THE MOON:  If you're outdoors meteor-watching before dawn on Thursday, Aug. 12th, don't forget to look east. Venus and the slender crescent Moon will be there side by side, rising ahead of the morning sun--a beautiful sight.”

 

NASA:  “PERSEID METEORS:  The 2004 Perseid meteor shower is underway. Every hour, 10+ meteors are streaking from the constellation Perseus, and that number will increase 3- to 6-fold when the shower peaks on August 11th and 12th. Look for Perseid Earthgrazers when the sun goes down on Wednesday, August 11th. Then, before dawn on Thursday, August 12th, go outside for the main event: as many as 60 meteors per hour.”

 

 

 

 

SUNSPOTS

The events in the solar atmosphere which impact weather and climate patterns, the magnetic field and auroras, including forecasts for the week, month, and year ahead. CLICK HERE for background information.  

To follow the numbers below, click here to view the Solar Cycle 23 Chart. Or, get the data in a NOAA Table.

 

The Sun is still on a loooong tangent on its very slow way to the next Solar MInima.

 

AS PREDICTED, NO RELIEF IN SIGHT FROM THIS AMAZINGLY STRANGE AND INTENSE SUMMER.

 

The Sunspot Count on August 10 was 93, the Flux Index was 121 and both counts are likely going to climb much higher quite rapidly during August 11 through to August 23, with probably an up and down jiggle or two in the counts between 100 and 200.  The high peak is MOST LIKELY GOING TO BE A HUGE, WIDE PEAK IN THE RANGE OF 180-200, right about August 15-20.

 

2004 07 29  100     32      400     

2004 07 30   89     33      230    

2004 07 31   86     39      270    

2004 08 01   83     40      260     

2004 08 02   85     39      270     

2004 08 03   88     52      260      

2004 08 04   85     62      220     

2004 08 05   89     36      170     

2004 08 06   91     52      280     

2004 08 07   95     71      560     

2004 08 08  105     77      490     

2004 08 09  114    101      840     

2004 08 10  121     93      860     

 

AS OBSERVED LAST WEEK AND AS SHOULD BE WATCHED ESPECIALLY THROUGH THIS AUGUST AND SEPTEMBER:  It is probably the huge variation of size which is currently driving the tremendous influx of “x” dimension energy, possibly scalar wave energy, which is effecting psychics and living creatures.  If so, we have a new variable to consider.  Up to now I have ignored size to keep the task of correlation easy and also within the same pattern as the correlations with the count in previous centuries.  But most likely, serious students need to examine the “area” variable and look for correlates.

 

MONTHLY AVERAGES IN SOLAR CYCLE 23
These numbers are reported by Jan Alvestad

JULY’S AVERAGE DAILY COUNT IN THE ISSN SERIES WAS UP BY NEARLY 10 FROM 43.2 TO 51.  Somewhere the Sun took a wrong turn.  This rise in the count is in the opposite direction to where it should be going.  August’s average, which is predicted by computers to drop to 34, may also hover near 50..

Over all, the sunspot average count (ISSN) for February 2004 was 46.0. March 2004  was even higher with the ISSN average count at 48.9  April’s count was radically lower at 39.3.  The May 2004 average count of 41.5 was SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN in April.  June 2004 was higher still with an average count of 43.2.  Despite the high count for June, the average solar flux was progressively down for the year so far.

Because of the next round of planetary alignments, August could also be higher than the predicted average sunspot curves (based on computer modeling of the Solar Sunspot Cycles).

 

 

 

 

 

SOLAR ACTIVITY

As reported by NASA/NOAA unless otherwise stated.  (Sudden surprises and huge storms are always possible even during sunspot minima periods such as the one we are currently headed into).  Descriptions and numbers are based on numbers as given by iway sources at about 1:00 – 3:00 PM Arizona Mountain Time (which does not have daylight savings time).

 

 

The Solar Wind was brisk at 525.4 km/s this day while pushing a meaty density of 2.4 protons/cm3”.   

 

One huge sunspot area, #649, is growing rapidly as it rotates into the middle of the Sun (as visible from Earth).  This coming area produced 5 huge X flares in July and will probably do similar during August.  Overall potential for extreme solar storms driving extreme Earth weather is very high for at least the next two to three weeks.

 

The Fluxgate Chart at the University of Alaska (which measures magnetic disturbances in the Earth’s atmosphere created by solar winds and ion storms) was offline for most of the past 24 hours and is now back on but showing very little disturbances. (as of this time, about 2 PM Mountain time US). To see the Fluxgate moment to moment, CLICK HERE.

 

NASA PREDICTS:  During the next 24/48 hours, probability for an M-class solar flare is at 50% and for an X-class solar flare is at 10%, with a generally 5% to 35% probability for minor to severe geomagnetic disturbances during the next 24/48 hours, depending upon latitude (higher the latitude, higher the probability). 

 

Jan Alvestad reports:  “The geomagnetic field was quiet to active on August 10. Solar wind speed ranged between 382 and 679 km/sec, first under the influence of a fairly low speed stream from coronal hole CH108, then under the influence of a high speed stream from coronal hole CH109...At midnight there were 5 spotted regions on the visible disk. The solar flare activity level was low. A total of 4 C class events were recorded during the day...The northernmost extension of a coronal hole (CH108) in the southern hemisphere was in a geoeffective position on August 7. The southernmost part of a large, poorly defined coronal hole (CH109) in the northern hemisphere was in a geoeffective position on August 8-9.”

 

Jan Alvestad predicts:  “The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to active on August 11-12 due to a high speed stream from coronal hole CH109, quiet to unsettled is likely on August 13.”  Alvestad also predicts a 60%-100% probability of M or X class flares during the next 24 hours but no probability of new CME’s or coronal holes “

 

 

 

 

 

WORLD WEATHER SUMMARY

Those who have been following the patterns have seen that the correlations between sunspot peaks and major storm fronts coming in off the oceans to track across the continents is roughly pretty good, sometimes very much exactly on the mark.  Accordingly, our “sloppycasts” (approximate continental weather patterns) this past few years have proven out to be fairly worthwhile.

 

 

AS OBSERVED LAST MONTH:  weather patterns are tweaked out into chaotic extremes which fit no averages or generalities.  Forget predictions, expect anything.  THIS CONDITION WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE SUMMER, CHAOS ALTERNATING WITH PERIODS OF CALMING.

 

This past week's weather and huge floods are still primarily driven by the last major sunspot peak, but this influence is waning rapidly.  Unfortunately the drought problem in the Western U.S. is severe.  Expect the drought to continue unabated and expect that another round of huge flooding for South Africa, Asia, and other areas prone to floods during this time of year should come during the last week of August and the first week of September.

 

EARTH WEATHER PREDICTION FOR THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS

(Northern Hemisphere) This “sloppycast” is based on sunspot counts, planetary alignments, and visual data shown on satellite and radar.

 

STAND PAT:  IS ANY PATTERN ANYWHERE NORMAL?  Nope.   I can’t keep up with and therefore won’t.  MORE OF THE SAME. Expect only chaotic conditions in the atmosphere this next two weeks.  No predictions will call the tune for any area.

 

EARTH WEATHER PREDICTION FOR SUMMER SEASON

(Northern Hemisphere) This “sloppycast” is based on sunspot counts, planetary alignments, and visual data shown on satellite and radar.

 

STANDING PREDCTION FOR THIS SUMMER:  The output of the Sun is currently too volatile and unpredictable.  Accordingly, expect 50% probability of anything. This is my last prediction related to general weather patterns for this summer.

 

SOUTHWEST CONDITIONS

This “sloppycast” is based on six years of living in the USA Pacific Southwest, the sunspot counts, planetary alignments, and visual data shown on satellite and radar.

 

 

THE GENERAL DROUGHT IN THE WESTERN U.S. IN ONCE AGAIN HOLDING SWAY.  So far this year the monsoon has delivered only about one fourth the normal rainfall in many areas, especially the Sonoran Plain. The Summer has only another 35 days to deliver about 8 inches of rain to make up the difference.  It would take some 8 to 16 thunderstorms to deliver the shortfall

 

THAT MUCH RAIN IN THE SOUTHWEST IS PROBABLY NOT POSSIBLE GIVEN THE RISING ENERGY IN THE ATMOSPHERE WHICH WILL DOMINATE THE NEXT MONTH DURING AT LEAST TWO TIMES (during the planetary alignments and high sunspot peaks). ACCORDINGLY, EXPECT AN ABYSMAL YEAR FOR WATER IN ALL DROUGHT PRONE AREAS. 

 

At this point, everyone in the Southwest should begin to pray in earnest for a HUGE El Nino effect.  During the last El Nino, the Southwest received substantial water.  See below.

 

 

 

 

EL NINO & LA NINA WATCH
The watch is now open again; Pacific water activity appears mostly normal, we are between the extremes of the ENSO; but all Auguries point to next year for the next onset.

 

THIS WEEK:  Conditions are warming up quite rapidly along the central portion of the Pacific Equator, midway between South America and the Fiji Islands.  A dramatic trend of warming is now clear as of this moment and if this warm up continues and spreads towards South America and persists into January 2005, an El Nino effect will definitely alter the weather of North America for at least a few months late in 2004 and early in 2005.

 

Purely in accordance with the X Wave correlation which I discovered in the Vortex Tectonics Model,  I PREDICT AN EL NINO IN 2005. In accordance with the trend in Global Warming, I PREDICT A VERY STRONG EL NINO, which should produce a very wet, warm winter for the Pacific coast and the Southwest.  Hopefully this will finally break the drought in the Western U.S.

 

ADDITIONAL NOTE:  The year 2004 and/or 2005, in accordance with the 100 year X Wave Graph of the motion of the spin axis in Chandler’s Wobble, COULD BE EL NINO YEARS.   Graphs of various El Nino periods seem to show that the beginning of temperature build-up can occur as late as April of an El Nino year.  So 2005 may not be callable until early Spring 2005.

 

 

 

KEEP WATCHING THE ARCTIC,  ANTARCTIC, and the desert zones. These areas are the most objective front line observatories of the climate shift.

 

 

GLOBAL WARMING

It is becoming obvious that we have a long term real shift in the average temperatures and climate regions related to the latitudes.  This climate shift is creating a growing environmental disaster in the polar zones and in the desert-prone latitudes such as in the Pacific Southwest.