You have heard of the Weather Report? Here exclusively is this week’s "Earth Report" - a short review of the “big picture” about how the dynamic changes in the Sun and the Earth are effecting our lives more and more intensely, with the latest prognostications and predictions for weathermen, farmers, investors, businessmen, and every man.

This update is keyed to the Earth Changes 2003 Almanac Calendar. The framework for understanding these updates and much of the current status information is maintained in capsule form in the Almanac at the locations cited in the text of this Update.

On the geophysical front, the Tectonic Gods, whom the ancient Sumerians named the “Anunnaki” (sorry, not space beings), awoke and rumbled while the always influential Mercury, the ancient “Messenger of the Gods”, brought a power upsurge in solar activity during its alignment with the Earth this past few days. As for the last few days, triple it for the coming 14 days. Tornadoes, floods, snow, storms, storms, and more storms.

For the geopolitical front, everything is in flux as the old shell game keeps on playing in Casino D.C. The Casino House, “the family”, “our thing”, “our gang”, of course, is as crooked as crooked ever was. To wrap the games around another season, the Media keeps trying to make all sorts of big things out of ordinary little things which would prefer simply to be left as ordinary things. At the institutional arena all pristianity has gone and we seem to be descending deeper and deeper into a Kali Yuga pit of shouting lies, thieves, and dripping scams where none is the number and all shame is gone with the wind while Mr. Jones scratches his bald spot wondering whatever did happen to the Constitution. But people seem bored and restive, everyone seems to be yearning for a big change now that the dirty little chore in Iraq is done. And so the Dalai Lama invited everyone this week to share 15 minutes with him in prayer and meditation on peace, even as the Pope asked for prayer two months ago. The advent of spiritual leadership on a world stage has doubtless begun and perhaps that it is the biggest news of the past several months.
_____________________________________________________________________
Program Thesis: What are we trying to do with the Earth Changes Bulletin?

Most news media do not handle technical and scientific subjects like geology and earth sciences very well. They don't understand the causes and effects of activities in the Sun and Earth. Accordingly, they often do not understand if, when, how, why to report earthquakes, volcanic activity, global warming effects The treatment often sounds absent-minded, poorly qualified, and frequently contains various technical errors. Seldom is the treatment entertaining and genuinely educational.

Based on new scientific principles which have emerged during the past thirty years, many of the dynamic activities of the Sun and Earth can be linked together to see how a range of effects are linked together. This makes it possible to paint "the big picture" into a perspective which explains many diverse events and processes, especially climate and weather patterns such as global warming and El Nino. From the "big picture", long range predictions can be made for weeks and even months ahead.

The result is sophisticated cutting-edge information which is objective, balanced, astute, relevant, and can be easily seen and appreciated by lay audiences. The perspective is generally global, seldom parochial.

For the framework of concepts, terms, and current conditions which are used or described in the these Bulletins, see the Earth Changes 2003 Almanac Calendar.

To see the internet resources which are used to prepare this Update, take a look at the Earth Monitor front page
http://www.michaelmandeville.com/earthmonitor
If anyone has any suggestions about evolving these pages, now is a good time as I devote a few minutes each day to revising menus and adding new links.


HOUSEKEEPING:

NO CHANGE AS REPORTED LAST WEEK: Alex Merklinger (and me on Wednesday nites) are currently off the air while “Mysteries of the Mind” seeks a new venue. This we hope could happen any time. Sorry about the cancellation of last night’s show. Technical difficulties knocked Lou Gentile off the air. The next available slot may be sometime in June.

INTERNET WATCH: Nothing new appeared in my inbox except three new virus laden emails. Apparently there are new infections being broadcast.

POLAR MOTION
What is happening to the motion of the Earth.

Steady as she goes.

AS REPORTED LAST WEEK: Despite many alarm bells being passed by psychics, there is not even a hint at the moment in the actual motion of the pole to suggest that there is going to be a sudden shifting in the poles next month (May) or some time later in this year.

AS OF THIS MONTH, FOR THE BASIC FORECAST, LOGIC, AND PRECURSOR SIGNALS OF THE NEXT AVALANCHE OF THE CRUST (POLE SHIFT), NEWBIES SHOULD CHECK OUT:

http://www.michaelmandeville.com/earthmonitor/ecbulletins/
ecbulletin_April30_2003.htm
watch the wrap of URLs onto a second line - any segment which dangles on a second line must be copied manually into the browser after clicking on the first line.

REPEATED: PRELIMINARY FIGURE FOR RECENT DISPLACEMENT: This is a preliminary indication which needs more work: the average location of the pole appears to have shifted possibly as much as 91.1 inches or 231.5 centimeters since the beginning of 1996. That implies an average rate of shifting of the poles since 1996 of 13 inches/yr. or 33 centimeters/year. This rate is substantially higher than it has been during most of the 20th century. What the rate of acceleration may be I cannot determine at the current time. Is the crust of the Earth currently slipping over the molten mantle at a faster rate? Probably yes.

To see the current graph of polar motion, see
http://www.michaelmandeville.com/earthmonitor/topten_monitor.htm
Scroll down the page until you get to the black and white graphs with show the x and y coordinates of the North Spin Axis on two separate graphs.

For additional current details: see http://www.michaelmandeville.com/ebooks/calendar2003/currentconditions.htm#polarmotion

FOR NEWBIES: The vortex tectonics paradigm of the earth holds that polar motion in the 6.5 year wobble cycle (Chandler’s) creates the major stress in the Earth’s crust which is released by lunar tidal forces each month in the form of earthquakes and volcanism. The acceleration in the motion of the drift of the poles and its relocation forces an increasing tempo in the shape shifting of the Equatorial zone, where 70% of tectonic activity occurs. Accordingly, earthquakes and volcanic activity should increase in frequency and magnitude.

PLANETS (all time coordinates here and elsewhere are in UTC)

The Moon this day is in its North Node and is now (almost) entering the First Quarter Phase. The next Full Moon will be on May 16 with Perigee preceding it by 16 hours. (Perigee = the Moon’s closest approach to the Earth during its monthly orbit which increases gravitational influence of the Moon by as much as 15%; Apogee = the Moon’s greatest distance from the Earth during its monthly orbit).

We have just passed a planetary alignment for: Venus | Uranus on ~April 30 and we are now in the middle of the Mercury | Earth alignment, which officially happened today. As noted yesterday, it is apparent that the Home Software dating method I used for manually calculating this alignment in the Almanac was off by about four days. This means that all of the dates for alignments on Earth Changes Almanac may be off by up to this amount. I will work of correcting all dates during the next couple of weeks by using the Navy ephemeris.

To view these alignments on the day of May 1, 2003, click on:

http://www.michaelmandeville.com/earthmonitor/cosmos/
planets/planets2003/planetsall_May1_2003.gif
(watch the word wrap of this and other URLs, you may have to paste part of it into your browser manually)

The next planetary alignment in May will be Mercury | Venus on approximately May 24. This will bring another massive increase in sunspots about three to six days prior and stormy wet weather is sure to follow about four to 12 days after the alignment.

See Earth Changes 2003 Almanac Calendar for additional details
http://www.michaelmandeville.com/ebooks/calendar2003/
The Almanac lays out the planets and the lunar phases for entire year in advance to allow you to find the best and worst periods of weather, earthquake activity, ethereal “lunar” influences, etc.

PLANET WATCHING:

Nibiru is nowhere in sight. All predictions of Planet X and Nibiru have failed
Full Article: http://www.earthchangestv.com/
breaking/July2002/28sunspots.htm
(watch the word wrap of this and other URLs, you may have to paste part of it into your browser manually)

Mars: You may now be able to see this at dawn

Mercury: NASA has some great stuff on Mercury’s alignment: “MERCURY TRANSIT: For 5 hours this morning, the planet Mercury passed directly between Earth and the sun. Sky watchers on 5 continents photographed the rare transit. "It was marvelous!" says astronomer Bartek Okonek of Leszno, Poland. Using an 8" telescope, he took this picture at 12:17 CET”.

I napstered the pix which shows Mercury sailing right over the sun at an angle which gives it a magical 3-D quality. It is stashed at:
http://www.michaelmandeville.com/earthmonitor/cosmos/
planets2003/mercury_transit_May7_2003.jpg
(watch the word wrap of this and other URLs, you may have to paste part of it into your browser manually)

There is some more great stuff on Mercury at this site:
http://www.cyberspaceorbit.com/

SUNSPOTS
The events in the solar atmosphere which impact weather and climate patterns, the magnetic field and auroras, including forecasts for the week, month, and year ahead.

AND WOW AGAIN

Sunspots soared up to 225 on April 30, the day of the last update, and, after a few sudden chops in numbers up and down every day, the count was 117 as of yesterday. This means the peak count was about seven days in advance of the Mercury | Earth alignment, which is right at the extreme of the range we have noticed during some of the previous planetary alignments. (The range appears to be 3 to 7 days).

The solar flux yesterday was at about 125, falling since April 30 when it was at
about 155. Sunspots should continue to decline for several days until they begin to pick up for the coming Mercury | Venus alignment.

CONFIRMATIONS: All sunspot and weather predictions have pretty much come close to the schedule in the Almanac. Though it was not much reported in the press, huge floods during the last week came in Argentina, followed by the Tornadoes in the South Central States of the U.S. More of this kind of extreme weather is on the way for the next two weeks.

GET OUT EVEN MORE UMBRELLAS AND RAIN COATS.

The severe flooding in South America a few days ago and the huge crop of Tornadoes in the Southeastern section of the United States are just the “early birds’ from this current period of extreme ionization in the Earth’s atmosphere which resulted from this huge wave of “Mercury | Earth” sunspots.

The atmosphere began to react strongly last week even as the prior update was being written. Once again yesterday and today , the wind in Arizona is running VERY high, VERY ROBUST, and nearly constantly right up over the Mogollon Rim. This means what all you Mountain and Midwest people ought to know by know. There is a lot of high flying moisture headed for the Northerly mountain and Midwestern latitudes, as is typical when the ionic flux from the sunspots expands the atmosphere and drives all of the air flows higher and further to either the North or the South.

THE COMING WEATHER FRONTS WILL BE EVEN MORE SEVERE IN ONE TO FOUR DAYS.

YUP, even snow in the high mountains of the Rockies, more, any more Tornadoes, huge thunderstorms, flashflooding, etc.

NEWBIES: for a discussion of what has been learned with the planetary alignments producing high sunspot counts and solar storms and these in turn creating major storm activity in the Earth’s atmosphere, tune into this Sunspot Section in the last Earth Changes Bulletin Update:
http://www.michaelmandeville.com/earthmonitor/ecbulletins/
ecbulletin_April30_2003.htm
watch the possible wrap of URLs onto a second line - any segment which dangles on a second line must be copied manually into the browser after clicking on the first line.

Over all, the sunspot average count for February was 46.4 and for March it rose to 61.5. The number for April was 60. The sudden increase to 109 I reported last week and questioned turned out to be a technical error made on Alvestad’s website.

As during the same time during the last two weeks, Solar-induced magnetic fields and flux ARE AGAIN HIGHLY UNSTABLE right now. The Fluxgate Monitor at the U of Alaska showed severe magnetic disturbances in the Earth’s Atmosphere still fill the horizontal chart for the last 24 hours Many chops very close to each other make counting pointless.

As of this moment, the Solar Wind Speed is VERY highly robust 711.4 km/s but at this hour (about 2 pm, AZ time) it is pushing only a modest density of 2.7 protons/cm.

NASA SOLAR STORM REPORTS

NASA’s storm predictions ARE STILL WAY TOO TEPID. The Sun is VERY SPRITZY. M class OR X class flares ARE MORE LIKELY THAN NOT.

NASA’S AURORA OUTLOOK: “Geomagnetic activity reached G2-storm levels on May 7th, which means Northern Lights should have been visible as far south as Wisconsin and Michigan in the United States. Earth remains inside the solar wind stream that caused this activity, so sky watchers should remain alert for auroras after local sunset tonight. The best observing sites will be at high latitudes: e.g., the southern regions of New Zealand and Australia, northern Europe, Canada, and northern US states.”

Would you like NASA to call you when auroras appear over your hometown? Sign up for SpaceWeather PHONE.. See http://spaceweatherphone.com/ for more details

Jan Alvestad reports: “A huge recurrent coronal hole (CH38) in the southern hemisphere will rotate into a geoeffective position on May 2-9. The geomagnetic field was unsettled to minor storm on May 6. Solar wind speed ranged between 566 and 780 km/sec under the influence of a high speed stream from coronal hole CH38.”

THIS MEANS A LOT OF IONIC ENERGY WILL POUND THE EARTH’S ATMOSPHERE FOR AT LEAST ANOTHER TWO DAYS. Auroras will be great to chase any time for the next few days.

Jan Alvestad predicts: “The geomagnetic field is expected to be unsettled to minor storm until May 11 due to a high speed stream from coronal hole CH38. Long distance medium wave (AM) band propagation along east-west paths over high and upper middle latitudes is very poor and will likely remain that way until at least May 12. Propagation along north-south paths is good and is likely to be at least fair until May 12”
See http://www.dxlc.com/solar/

ONCE AGAIN, AS PREDICTED DURING THE LAST TWO WEEKS: LITTLE DOUBT THAT solar influences on the Earth’s atmosphere will remain petulant for the next several days. As last week brought stormy, tricky, unpredictable sudden fluctuations in the weather in many ways, EXPECT THE SAME, ONLY THE STORMS WILL BE MUCH BIGGER. Freakish sudden storms are likely. Winds and precipitation may continue to set records in various areas.

To follow these numbers, view the Solar Cycle 23 Chart at
http://www.michaelmandeville.com/earthmonitor/topten_monitor.htm

GLOBAL DROUGHT AND FLOOD WATCH
Stories and assessments about drought and flood conditions around the world; global information which provides the ability to assess the impacts to agriculture and the natural environment.

AS PREDICTED LAST TWO WEEKS: Continue to watch out for the development of freak floods in some areas, storm fronts are likely to become much bigger and more virulent. Flooding in parts of North America may become a problem during the next three weeks, especially along the eastern slopes of the Rocky Mountain Cordillera, from Texas to the Arctic, and in the western portions of the Great Lakes. Strong potentials for disruptive storms and floods in Northern Europe. Melodi, keep watching out.

For additional details, see
http://www.michaelmandeville.com/ebooks/calendar2003

EL NINO WATCH:

AS PREVIOUSLY PREDICTED: There may be a La Nina during the later part of 2003 and through part of 2004, but it is likely that it will be barely noticeable because of the accumulated “Global Warming” and the relatively high levels of volcanic heat venting in the Earth. The next El Nino is likely to appear in 2005 or 2006.

CHEMTRAILS
See http://www.deepspace4.com/pages/main/pagemain.htm

EARTHQUAKES
Around the world to see the current and potential patterns of seismic activity, with coverage of the windows of danger. I prepared this section by pulling out the Earth Changes 2003 Calendar which has everything plotted on it. You should too. Check out the Almanac as well, it discusses all of the windows for the year and even spotlights the two most dangerous windows.

QUAKE SCIENCE NEWS


RECENT EVENT OF INTEREST THIS PAST FEW DAYS

Six quakes 6.0 plus magnitude this past seven days – a relatively high number.

The most damaging was in Turkey (see previous post)

Here is one of the quakes North of New Zealand (similar to two other of the 6 plus quakes):

http://neic.usgs.gov/neis/bulletin/neic_tjae.html
Magnitude 6.7 KERMADEC ISLANDS, NEW ZEALAND
2003 May 04 13:15:14 UTC
Preliminary Earthquake Report
U.S. Geological Survey, National Earthquake Information Center
World Data Center for Seismology, Denver
Date-Time Sunday, May 04, 2003 at 13:15:14 (UTC) - Coordinated Universal Time
Monday, May 05, 2003 at 01:15:14 AM local time at epicenter

Location 30.62S 178.37W
Depth 33.0 kilometers
Region KERMADEC ISLANDS, NEW ZEALAND
Reference 105 km (65 miles) NNE of L'Esperance Rock, Kermadec Islands
160 km (100 miles) SSW of Raoul Island, Kermadec Islands
945 km (580 miles) NE of Auckland, New Zealand
1335 km (830 miles) NNE of WELLINGTON, New Zealand

Location Quality Error estimate: horizontal +/- 9.2 km; depth fixed by location program
Location Quality
Parameters Nst=113, Nph=113, Dmin=867.8 km, Rmss=0.82 sec, Erho=9.2 km, Erzz=0 km, Gp=31.4 degrees
Source USGS NEIC (WDCS-D)

QUAKE PATTERNS (=>2.5 mag)

The largest crop of quakes for the past seven days, counting from today backwards, was May 2, about 16 quakes 2.5 and above and nearly that number the following day.
All other days were quite muted in frequency even though several 6.0 plus quakes definitely elevated over all magnitude. The over all frequency was in keeping with the syzygy pattern but the large quakes were not particularly IN the syzygy pattern, they just appeared randomly the past seven days.

For almost all of the quakes there did not seem to be any real foci this week. But there were 6 quakes greater than 6.0 in mag. One 6.4 quake in Turkey, with five more along the Australian Tectonic Plate margins. Of these five, three were North of Australia, two in Western end of the Papua New Guinea Arc (listed as in Indonesian waters), one was at the other Eastern end of the Papua – Fiji Arc (listed as in Tonga) and two more were just to the East of Australia, North of New Zealand. Since all of these quakes were deep and well out to sea, no damage reports have appeared.

The big quakes North of New Zealand had major after-shocks.

CAYCE VOLCANISM WATCH: Do these quakes fit the Cayce equation? (Cayce equation: upheavals in arctic/antarctic zones =>creates volcanism in equatorial zones). Maybe they fit. The prior two weeks gave us several fairly large quakes along the edge of the Antarctic Tectonic Plate. Now here is a possible rebound close to the equatorial zone. Except for Turkey’s quake, all the other 6.0 plus quakes occurred in tectonic zones which are exceptionally volcanic and reasonably close to the Equator. These quakes may indicate an upsurge in underwater volcanism in the South Pacific. (And quite possibly an increase in the outflow of hot water into the ocean). We will continue once again during the next couple of weeks to watch closely for world volcanism to increase to mirror Cayce’s linkage of upheavals in the frigid zones with an increase in volcanism in the torrid zones.

To see the world quake chart by the USGS, click on
http://neic.usgs.gov/neis/current/

The USGS charts (such charts show all quakes 1.0 and above) for the U.S. and Alaska show 305 quakes for the past seven days (which is up as it should from last week’s 289) with the USGS chart for California/Nevada showing 219 of these in California during the past seven days (which is down from last week’s 222).

The USGS Chart of Yellowstone Cauldera Area shows 17 microquakes during the last week (up as should be from 9 last week) and 31 quakes scattered throughout Utah
(a contrarian down from 30 last week).

Hood had no new microquakes and the USGS chart for Long Valley Cauldera (Area) showed a running total of 8 (also contrarian down from 13 last week). The USGS Chart for the Pacific Northwest reveals 49 quakes (two week sum, up substantially from 23 microquakes last week) most of them widely scattered through Washington State.

FULL MOON WATCH ON COLIMA – POPO – COOS BAY – SAN ANDREAS
REMEMBER THE COSTA NOSTRA DAMUS PREDICTION: We will watch Coos Bay, San Andreas, Colima, Popo, very carefully.

VOLCANOES
Around the world with the most interesting and relevant volcano stories; briefs on the likely eruptions as well as coverage of on-going activity.

El Popo offered a 11 puff day yesterday, up from last Wednesday. Centrapred reports for May 7 (16:00 GMT) that “In the last 24 hours the monitoring system of Popocatepetl volcano recorded 11 low intensity exhalations, mainly accompanied by steam and gas. Also there were detected some episodes of low amplitude harmonic tremor for 8 hours. During this morning and at the moment of this report we can see the volcano with low fumarolic activity. In a SCT flight on april 30th, it was not observed a new lava dome inside the crater. The analysis of the activity recorded in the last days leads to the following probable scenarios: 1. That the present process finishes without consequences. 2.That the process of destruction of a dome generates explosions of variable intensity, able to throw incandescent fragments to distances up to 4 km from the crater. 3. Some piroclastic flows similar to the one occurred on January 22, 2001 may generate. The more probable affected volcano sectors could be East and Northeast, although some other may be affected.”

Following Yellowstone and Popo, Volcanic activity worldwide this past seven days may be up a tad from the last week. The Southwest Volcano Centre reports 38 volcanoes on the alert status list (one up from last week), 4 volcanoes on the restless list (one down from last week), and 24 on the active eruption list (one up from last week).

The Southwest Volcano Centre also reports

“As of the 7th of May, and after having been translated from Spanish, the Observatorio Vulcanologica of the Universidad de Colima reports that an eruption of Colima Volcano has sent ash to a height of 20,000 ft and lava down the south side of the volcano. The eruption occurred on Tuesday 6th May at 2040 hr (UT).”

Note: Colima is a close tectonic sister to Popo.

CAYCE VOLCANISM WATCH: Does this activity fit the Cayce equation? (Cayce equation: upheavals in arctic/antarctic zones =>creates volcanism in equatorial zones). Not all that closely so far. The prior two weeks gave us several fairly large quakes along the edge of the Antarctic Tectonic Plate. But the rebound in volcanism is not really very noticeable, not anywhere reasonably close to the equator. However, the quakes this past week along the Australian Tectonic Plate may be the Augeries for a flare up in volcanism in the South Pacific and or through Indonesia. We will continue once again during the next couple of weeks to watch closely for world volcanism to increase to mirror Cayce’s linkage of upheavals in the frigid zones with an increase in volcanism in the torrid zones.

ECONOMIC WATCH

AS PREVIOUSLY PREDICTED: It is doubtful that any economic recovery will begin to be felt until later in the year, probably not until Fall of 2003.

BUT, AS REPORTED LAST WEEK, more and more Bull tracks and cowpies can be spotted. Many sources, including the Governor of Arizona whom I met with last week, are indicating that signs of recovery are cropping up everywhere. ONCE AGAIN THE BULLS ARE MAKING MORE NOISE IN ALL THE MEDIA.

I think it is real.

DITECH.COM ARBITRAGER:
Their TV ad rates were down from the last weeks: from 5.35 and 5.677 to 5.25 and 5.55 as of today for short and long term rates. Unfortunately they also changed their website around and I can no longer get the comparatives I was using. I am going to search around for a new way to monitor consumer credit rates.

EURO WATCH
Here is the two year chart for the value of the dollar vis a vis the Euro
http://finance.yahoo.com/m5?s=USD&t=EUR&a=1&c=2
In Mid November 2001, the dollar could purchase about Euro 1.18
In May 2002, the dollar could purchase about Euro 1.10.
During the past two months, the dollar could purchase about Euro .91 to.93
Two weeks ago, the dollar could purchase about Euro .91
Last week, the dollar could purchase about Euro .8946
Today the dollar can purchase about Euro .888

In other words, the Dollar on average appears to be continuing a 24 month slide and it clearly another 1.5 cents in just one week.

PUT YOUR EAR TO THE MONITOR. THIS IS THE GIANT SUCKING SOUND OF VALUE BEING REMOVED FROM THE AMERICAN ECONOMY. It is going to keep going and may end up in the range of .70 sometime this year.

AS REPORTED: This now appears to be a deliberate policy of the U.S. military industrial complex to stimulate demand for American goods in Europe and Asia. This is one of the ways in which the Imperial Faction is going to tax Europe to inadvertently pay for a part of the invasion of Iraq.

I believe that it is well worth buying Euros now.

AS REPORTED LAST WEEK: With control of Iraq’s oil, and no doubt the thirst of the Iraqi’s for some serious income, it will be easy for American institutions to cause a major surplus of oil production on the world market, forcing oil to be cheap in terms of dollars. By forcing the Euro to be expensive in terms of dollars, Europe will have dirt cheap energy but it will not be able to export nearly as much manufactured goods as they might want to export. But this will be a boon to American exporters because the cost of their goods will be cheaper and exports to Europe should boom. This should also be a boon to tourism. European tourism in North America should increase substantially during 2004. It gets really interesting if they force another 20 per cent differential in values between Europe and America. China will begin to become squeezed and a good portion of the balance of payments problem will begin to dry up. And Europeans will be in the Americas spending their money on everything in sight. This should also slow down China Walmart Inc. Chinese goods will get more expensive, but probably only marginally so for the next couple of years.

GENERAL PREDICTION DJI AVERAGES: Conditions remain highly unstable but Bull energy IS GATHERING STRENGTH. This is despite the dire straits of the American aviation industry and the depressed tourist industry. They have been in bad shape since 2001, so there is really no new news. Tens of thousands of jobs will probably be lost and an airline company or two may disappear, but the reconsolidation this year may help firm up the economy.

AS PREDICTED LAST WEEK: The DJI gained 500 points during April with many 200 point mood swings to close April 30 at 8,502. We can probably expect similar growth during May and June. By the time the Dog Days set in the DJI may be up in the range of 9200, plus or minus 300, BUT this is proviso because of the fragility of both the economy and international politics. Strong negatives in the news could depress these numbers and keep the DJI under 9000. Eventually this number will flatten during July and August and will then continue to inch up during the Fall. By the end of the year, the DJI may be pushing 9500-10,000, but only if jobs are being created and retailers are reporting a decent year end sales season.

LAST WEEK’S CLOSING DJI PREDICTION HIT THE MARK, IF A LITTLE HIGH: “Stocks will rally slowly upward and may close 8500, plus or minus 200. Condition prediction with the above General Prediction.” IN FACT, the market closed the week at 8,582

I AM LETTING THESE PREDICTIONS RIDE AGAIN FOR NEXT WEEK. Expect to see a gradual inching up, not inching down.

AS PREVIOUSLY STATED: Beyond 9000, the market cannot remain until a real turn around is evident in the U.S. economy. So far we are empty-handed in this department, BUT IT IS LIKELY THAT A SPRING UPTURN IS BEGINNING. It may be more strongly evident by the middle of May. Any major adverse result in the American War On Iraq will see sudden downturns for one to a few days BUT THESE ARE GOING TO BE INCREASINGLY UNLIKELY.

AS PREVIOUSLY PREDICTED: The easy success in Iraq and the increasing acceptance of the Iraqi people, along with a huge $80 billion short term spending bill for the Pentagon and Homeland Defense, plus the likelihood of huge Iraq reconstruction bonds and contracts to be let out in the next few months, all auger for confidence in the coming of an expansion of the U.S. economy and an upsurge in stock values. By May there may be enough apparent buoyancy to consider a buying strategy for the next two to three years. I would wait, however, and let things firm up a bit during the summer. Then scoop up what you want to buy in late August, before Labor Day.

MAJOR ADVERSE CONTINGENCIES:

SARS - The SARS virus may disrupt even more air travel enough to cause another depressive wave to flow through the economy, which will send the stock market south by a long ways. If so, ALL BETS are off. This nasty downward economic spiral could continue and induce another huge depressionary wave.

Conditions in Iraq
U.S. Diplomacy
Price of Oil
Osama Bin Laden and Al Qaeda
Palestinian Peace Process

HEALTH WATCH

SARS SITUATION STILL UNCLEAR: Despite some apparent success in “blocking it”, and despite some considerable skepticism that this is anything more than pneumonia, Chinese hysteria seems to be mounting.

Reported numbers keep going up and a recent analysis now circulating on the internet suggests that the real death toll is in the range of 25% in China. I am not certain if that number factors in the real death rate in Canada. It the 25% rate is real for a specific viral infection, obviously the reaction to SARS is going to be even more freaky.

The SARS virus is going to be a problem at least for awhile. Despite the new reports out of China, it is still NOT appearing to show a dynamic geometric expansion curve. Its spread is quite slow and this may be because it is being controlled AND/OR it is not as contagious as feared. Despite the concern, regular pneumonia is killing far more people every week than SARS.

GEO-POLITICAL WATCH
How are the sunspots likely to most effect human affairs during the weeks and months ahead?

Many things floating in the wind….but the ‘its about oil” hypothesis seems to be gathering more and more evidence as the Imperial Faction makes more and more decisions about the carcass of Iraq. More and more the word being put out on the street by governmental officials is that this is going to be a long occupation.

The new American Viceroy of Iraq (of course I am being facetious) has impeccable Imperial credentials. He is a dyed in the wool cold warrior who thinks colonizing a third country with a lot of oil is a great idea. Check out this article for a thoroughly blood curdling experience about how queer things could get in Iraq:

Paul Bremer, the new ‘Gauleiter’ of Iraq

By William Bowles

05/06/03: (Information Clearing House) George Bush has appointed Paul Bremer as the ‘civil administrator’ of Iraq in what the Independent calls "a victory for Colin Powell…in the running skirmishes with Mr Rumsfeld’s Pentagon…".
http://www.informationclearinghouse.info/article3243.htm


REPEAT FROM LAST WEEK: It appears that events in Iraq are stabilizing and will require such a large armed U.S. force to impose the “Pax” that it is unlikely that the U.S. Military can expand Imperial adventurism in the Middle East. It is probably unlikely that any military moves will be made against the “Axis of Evil” countries this year or next. (At the moment, the “power greed” of the Imperial Faction is working in our favor. They have bitten off as much as they can possibly chew and they will be busy for quite a spell.)

SIGN OF THE TIMES: it looks like, America’s hot adventure “reality” show, “The Empire Strikes Back” HAS successfully keep much of the corporate scandals under the rug. Have you heard even a tiny bit about these scandals since the cliff-hangers started at the U.N. at the beginning of February? ARE YOU SURPRISED? Ken Lay, just a good ole boy Texan, the Presiding Officer of the rape of California Consumers, otherwise known as Enron, is still scott free with his crooked billions…

SIGN OF THE TIMES II: We still have ABSOLUTELY NO IDEA HOW MANY PEOPLE WERE KILLED AND INJURED IN IRAQ. Did you even notice?

Keep checking out the Media Lens organization. http://www.medialens.org
They are providing some really good wake up antidote to the Orwellian Newspeak of the Imperial Faction.

As the next few weeks unfold, the “real story” of what happened in Iraq will progressively change its appearance as the over all facts begin to come into focus. There will be many additional flaps appear and new issues will raise ugly heads.

Already we can see that the Media people are working up new phraseology to weasel-word explanations about why the weapons of mass destruction have yet to be found in Iraq.

And, now, I will leave you with this one, which proves that the Sunspots drive people crazy. (And you thought George Bush and the Imperial Faction were weird).

Last Updated: Thursday, 1 May, 2003, 13:36 GMT 14:36 UK
Japan cult ends stand-off
Members of a mysterious cult who have been engaged in a stand-off with
police on a mountain road in central Japan have finally moved on to an
unknown destination.
The group, which calls itself the Pana Wave Laboratory, initially refused to
move until the end of this week. Members insisted they were caring for a
seriously ill woman believed to be their leader.
But their caravan of vehicles began pulling out of Thursday, after police
searched their vehicles on suspicion they had broken traffic laws, said a
spokesman for the prefectural police in Gifu.
The cult, whose members are clad entirely in white, is reported to believe
that the world will be devastated on 15 May by natural disasters, caused by a
reversal of the magnetic pole.
The group has reportedly been on the move across Japan for the last 10 years.
Police said no arrests were made on Thursday, and it was not clear where the
caravan was headed. About 300 officers had been sent to the road in Gifu's
Yamato town.
Earlier, national police chief Hidehiko Sato told a news conference that Pana
Wave Laboratory resembled the feared Aum Shinrikyo, or Supreme Truth cult,
which carried out a nerve gas attack on the Tokyo subway in 1995.
"We don't know what they're really thinking or what they might do," a police
officer in the nearby town of Hachiman told Reuters news agency.
An official with the cult told reporters earlier this week that a communist
group was seeking to take the life of their leader by trying to kill her with
a weapon using electromagnetic waves.
Japanese newspapers said that a pamphlet issued last year by a religious cult
that evolved into Pana Wave Laboratory said that if its leader died, its
members would "exterminate all humankind at once".
The group had draped its cars and the surrounding trees with white cloth,
which it claimed neutralised the effects of harmful electromagnetic waves.
Members wear surgical-style white robes, flowing headgear and facemasks.
Last week, prosecutors called for the death penalty against Aum founder Shoko
Asahara, who is accused of masterminding the 1995 Tokyo subway attack.
A verdict is not expected until mid-2003.
Aum has now reformed as Aleph, and has renounced violence.