You have heard of the Weather Report? Here exclusively is this week’s "Earth Report" - a short review of the “big picture” about how the dynamic changes in the Sun and the Earth are effecting our lives more and more intensely, with the latest prognostications and predictions for weathermen, farmers, investors, businessmen, and every man.

This update is keyed to the Earth Changes 2003 Almanac Calendar. The framework for understanding these updates and much of the current status information is maintained in capsule form in the Almanac at the locations cited in the text of this Update.

The good news for the geophysical vortex continues. Solar Cycle 23 continues to wane rapidly though the sunspot count as of Tuesday has at 160 for the Mercury | Neptune alignment. Rain and snowfall along the Pacific Coast is plentiful, the drought patterns in North American and throughout Eurasia are fully broken. Spring should be NORMAL (can you remember what they were like?) but March is going to be much stormier than predicted last week.

For the geopolitical front….everything remains unsettled but extremely polarized. Who is going to blink? Time is not on the side of the Imperial Faction, even despite massive support from a nakedly bellicose Mass Broadcast War Hysteria Media. Sane attitudes and positions inclined to peace have consolidated world opinion among almost all of the major nations of the world, yet a bellicose demand for war is casting increasingly surreal shadows, possibly terminal weirdness, in the culture of the U.S. Can the French-German-Russian Initiative, which China supports, assume the mantle of leadership and sideline the ambitions of the Imperial Faction? Baring perverse manipulation, or a profoundly doltish move on the part of Bush, it is looking more and more that this is the likely outcome. The American Imperial Faction will bellicosely wail that the United Nations has failed. Most of the rest of the world will believe that the United Nations has succeeded.

Spiritual sources inform me that the world is very much as it feels right now – everything is in flux, the socio-world totters and could fall along many different lines of motion. Prayer, ideas, thought, and intent matter more than ever and can have great power in altering the course of things. KEEP PRAYING AS COPIOUSLY AS THE STARS IN THE HEAVENS. Our best hope at the moment lies in encouraging the French, Germans, and Russians to vigorously take over international leadership on the issue of Iraq’s weapons.

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Program Thesis: What are we trying to do with the Earth Changes Bulletin?

Most news media do not handle technical and scientific subjects like geology and earth sciences very well. They don't understand the causes and effects of activities in the Sun and Earth. Accordingly, they often do not understand if, when, how, why to report earthquakes, volcanic activity, global warming effects The treatment often sounds absent-minded, poorly qualified, and frequently contains various technical errors. Seldom is the treatment entertaining and genuinely educational.

Based on new scientific principles which have emerged during the past thirty years, many of the dynamic activities of the Sun and Earth can be linked together to see how a range of effects are linked together. This makes it possible to paint "the big picture" into a perspective which explains many diverse events and processes, especially climate and weather patterns such as global warming and El Nino. From the "big picture", long range predictions can be made for weeks and even months ahead.

The result is sophisticated cutting-edge information which is objective, balanced, astute, relevant, and can be easily seen and appreciated by lay audiences. The perspective is generally global, seldom parochial.

For the framework of concepts, terms, and current conditions which are used or described in the these Bulletins, see the Earth Changes 2003 Almanac Calendar.

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HOUSE-KEEPING NOTE:

Take a look at the Earth Monitor front page
http://www.michaelmandeville.com/earthmonitor
If anyone has any suggestions about evolving these pages, now is a good time as I devote a few minutes each day to revising menus and adding new links.

INTERNET WATCH

There seems to be a lull in attacks at the moment. The system the last day and today is working efficiently with no bottlenecks.

The cyberclones seem to have disappeared for the most part.

POLAR MOTION
What is happening to the motion of the Earth.

NO CHANGE FROM LAST WEEK: The X Wave in Chandler’s Wobble has passed its annual MIN. It will now head toward the last annual MAX in this current 6.5 year cycle of Chandler’s Wobble. This annual MAX should be achieved about the beginning of October of this year. This MAX will define the MAX for this entire current cycle. When this 6.5 year MAX point is achieved, the average location of the North Spin Axis can be computed and thus the current rate of shifting in the location of the wobbling pole can also be computed by comparison with the previous cycles.

AS REPORTED LAST SEVERAL WEEKS: Steady as she goes. As reported for the past few months, the current track of Chandler’s Wobble (the observed locations of the spin axis at the North Pole) continues to show an acceleration in the shifting of the average location of the spin axis. The recent acceleration may be in the approximate range of 6.5%. FOR A DESCRIPTION OF THIS DISPLACEMENT, SEE THE EARTH CHANGES BULLETIN OF NOVEMBER 13, 2002.

PRELIMINARY FIGURE FOR RECENT DISPLACEMENT:

This is a preliminary indication which needs more work: the average location of the pole appears to have shifted possibly as much as 91.1 inches or 231.5 centimeters since the beginning of 1996. That implies an average rate of shifting of the poles since 1996 of 13 inches/yr or 33 centimeters/year. This rate is substantially higher than it has been during most of the 20th century. What the rate of acceleration may be I cannot determine at the current time. Is the crust of the Earth currently slipping over the molten mantle at a faster rate? Probably yes.

To see the current graph of polar motion, see
http://www.michaelmandeville.com/earthmonitor/topten_monitor.htm
Scroll down the page until you get to the black and white graphs with show the x and y coordinates of the North Spin Axis on two separate graphs.

For additional current details: see http://www.michaelmandeville.com/ebooks/calendar2003/currentconditions.htm#polarmotion

FOR NEWBIES: The vortex tectonics paradigm of the earth holds that polar motion in the 6.5 year wobble cycle (Chandler’s) creates the major stress in the Earth’s crust which is released by lunar tidal forces each month in the form of earthquakes and volcanism. The acceleration in the motion of the drift of the poles and its relocation forces an increasing tempo in the shape shifting of the Equatorial zone, where 70% of tectonic activity occurs. Accordingly, earthquakes and volcanic activity should increase in frequency and magnitude.

PLANETS

The Moon this day is still in its South Node and is two days past New and will be at Apogee in two days. The next Full Moon is March 18 and the Lunar Perigee will be one day later. (Perigee = the Moon’s closest approach to the Earth during its monthly orbit which increases gravitational influence of the Moon by as much as 15%; Apogee = the Moon’s greatest distance from the Earth during its monthly orbit).

The next planetary alignments will be on March 10 between Mercury | Neptune and March 13 between Mercury | Uranus. The influence of these alignments on Sunspot Counts and Earth’s weather will probably be fairly mild. Venus is steadily moving away from the Earth so it will gradually fade. To find it, look to the East just before dawn.

See Earth Changes 2003 Almanac Calendar for additional details
http://www.michaelmandeville.com/ebooks/calendar2003/
The Almanac lays out the entire year in advance to allow you to find the best and worst periods of weather.

COMET NEAT WATCH: NO NEW DATA FROM LAST WEEK

View the recent Perihelion rounding of the Sun by Comet Neat on this latest video clip. This one is much smoother and complete than the earlier versions.

http://lasco-www.nrl.navy.mil/mpg/current_c3_13d.mpg

For a catalog of known facts and observations about this comet, go to
http://cometography.com/lcomets/2002v1.html

The size of the comet is not reported (in mass) but it is not a large comet and astronomers report that it IS NOT on any sort of collision course with the Earth. Apparently the comet’s main hard body is about 5 to 10 kilometers across.

SUNSPOTS
The events in the solar atmosphere which impact weather and climate patterns, the magnetic field and auroras, including forecasts for the week, month, and year ahead.

After dipping to a low low of about 15 on February, the numbers rose and bounced up and down around between 40 and 90 between February 21 through to March 2. March 3 the numbers began to rise again sharply and yesterday they appear to have peaked at 160. Apparently this peak is for the Mercury | Neptune alignment on March 10 and if so it is a full five days early, as happens occasionally. (More often than not the peaks have preceded the alignments by about two or three days.)

This rise is considerably higher than I expected, given the progression of collapsing numbers of Solar Cycle 23 during most of February.

The weather disturbance for this peak, which will follow in about a week, should be much larger than the weather patterns of the past week.

BAD PROJECTION - FROM LAST WEEK: Accordingly, the weather should be less extreme during March through July than originally projected

CORRECTED PROJECTION: the weather should be highly petulant during mid-March through to nearly the end of the Month. Even the Sun and the Weather is leaning against the designs of Mad Englishmen and Texas Swindlers. More major storms will dump large amounts of rain and snow. Perhaps the hand of God is at work. Pray with the Pope for enough cloudy and wet weather through the Middle East to hang up nefarious plots and the march to war.

Solar-induced magnetic fields and flux are swinging briskly. The Fluxgate Monitor at the U of Alaska showed two major magnetic disturbance during the past 24 hours in the Earth’s Atmosphere. NASA attributes these to solar streams from coronal holes in the Sun’s atmosphere which are buffeting the Earth. Despite this buffeting, this day’s Solar Wind Speed is 509.7 km/s and at this hour it is pushing a modest density of 3.4 protons/cm.

Jan Alvestad reports: “The geomagnetic field was unsettled to minor storm on March 4. Solar wind speed ranged between 419 and 572 km/sec under the influence of a high speed stream from coronal hole CH23. The geomagnetic field is expected to be unsettled to active until March 7 due to high speed streams from CH23 and CH24. Quiet to unsettled conditions are likely from March 8. Long distance medium wave (AM) band propagation along east-west paths over high and upper middle latitudes is very poor, propagation along north-south paths is poor to fair.”
See http://www.dxlc.com/solar/

As forecasted for last week, this means that the sun is quite irregular in its output through several “holes” in its atmosphere, out of which high amounts of ions are streaming. As these holes rotate to squarely face the Earth, the magnetic field and atmosphere of the Earth is impacted directly with a sudden flux of energy. Auroras could be seen virtually any night, magnetic readings will be unstable, and major storm fronts could form suddenly in the high latitudes in response to the increased energization.

AS PREVIOUSLY PREDICTED: Continue to expect anything with this Solar Cycle 23, even though THE HIGH PEAK IN SUNSPOT CYCLE 23 IS GONE. During most of March, the sunspot counts should remain well below 100, probably in the 30-80 range. . Peaks above 100 MAY occur during each of the planetary alignments, but not necessarily, and they may well soar very high once again during August and September for the planetary alignments in mid August, the Mars | Earth alignment in late August, and the flyby of this alignment by Mercury on September 10. Temporary peaks in sunspot numbers into the 200 range are possible during this period.

To follow these numbers, view the Solar Cycle 23 Chart at
http://www.michaelmandeville.com/earthmonitor/topten_monitor.htm

GLOBAL DROUGHT AND FLOOD WATCH
Stories and assessments about drought and flood conditions around the world; global information which provides the ability to assess the impacts to agriculture and the natural environment.

AS REPORTED LAST WEEK: I believe that we can now affirm and confirm that the drought patterns of the last few years are breaking up.

The good news is that rain is now falling generously. Central Arizona has received around 10 inches of rain during the past 20 days, which is the normal amount of rain for the winter period (it normally comes in December and January, not February and March, but never mind we are really happy to get it). This is more rain than we have gotten since the late Spring of 2001. Much of the Western U.S. is finally getting soaked as well.

This same pattern of abundant rain in many of the previous drought areas can be seen in Asia as well. The poppy crop in Afghanistan will probably be prolific this year….

More rain is probably on the way. This may make a wonderfully wet Spring and a very colorful early Spring rally among the wildflowers. April may be a wonderful time, one of the best of times, to visit the Southwest.

BUT, AS PREVIOUSLY PREDICTED: Summer monsoons may be late and will be ended sooner than normal by the planetary alignments which begin in mid-August, most especially by the Mars | Earth alignment at the end of August.

For additional details, see
http://www.michaelmandeville.com/ebooks/calendar2003

EL NINO WATCH:

As reported, there probably is no El Nino warm water along the Pacific Equator. However, NASA has failed since February this year to update its animated chart of ocean water temperatures. So I cannot give an update on this at the moment. I will have to find another means to keep tabs on the situation.

OLD METHOD WHICH I WILL PROBABLY REPLACE: To view the latest water temperatures in the Pacific, go to the animated graph at NOAA’s weather center. It runs through the changing temperature of the surface of the ocean every two weeks for the past year. You can watch the late developing El Nino water (shown in red and orange) quickly break up and shrivel into the Borneo-sized patch.
http://www.cdc.noaa.gov/map/clim/sst_olr/sst_animated.gif

CHEMTRAILS
See http://www.deepspace4.com/pages/main/pagemain.htm

EARTHQUAKES
Around the world to see the current and potential patterns of seismic activity, with coverage of the windows of danger. I prepared this section by pulling out the Earth Changes 2003 Calendar which has everything plotted on it. You should too. Check out the Almanac as well, it discusses all of the windows for the year and even spotlights the two most dangerous windows.

At the moment quake activity above 2.5 is below normal for this New Moon syzygy (which is near syzygy), AS PREDICTED. Frequency was way down, the largest number of quakes were February 27, outside the normal syzygy periods. Magnitude as down as well on average. Two 6.0 quakes struck, one in Indonesia, another in the Mid-Atlantic Rise between the tips of South America and Africa. Another 5.5 quake struck in Indonesia during the past several days, most other activity was low.

There is no strong pattern at play currently. For quakes above 2.5, activity was widely scattered. The USGS Seven Day world chart shows somewhat more activity in North Asia and Alaska than elsewhere. To see the world quake chart by the USGS, click on
http://neic.usgs.gov/neis/current/

In North America, seismic activity for the most part returned to normal for the SYZYGY WINDOW CONCEPT. The USGS chart (such charts show all quakes 1.0 and above) for the U.S. and Alaska show 650 quakes for the past seven days (which is more normal than last week’s 808) with the USGS chart for California showing 433 of these in California during the past seven days (way down from last week’s 622).

Activity in the Mountain States was mildly contrarian. The USGS Chart of Yellowstone Cauldera Area shows 16 small quakes during the last week (down from 25 the prior week) and 38 quakes scattered throughout Utah (up from 10 during the prior week).

The USGS Chart for the Pacific Northwest reveals 29 quakes (two week sum, down from 35 micro quakes last week) widely scattered almost entirely throughout Washington State. Hood was completely silent and the USGS chart for Long Valley Cauldera (Area) showed a running total of only 11 for the past week (down from running total of 16 last week), typically in the range of 1.0 in magnitude,

FULL MOON WATCH ON COLIMA – POPO – COOS BAY – SAN ANDREAS
REMEMBER THE COSTA NOSTRA DAMUS PREDICTION: We will watch Coos Bay, San Andreas, Colima, Popo, very carefully. Let us watch as well for a pattern of increase during the succeeding Full Moon Perigee Syzygies. Centered near the middle of the month for March, April, and May, the Full Moon and Perigee draw tighter together to be virtually dead on in April, then start to draw apart. Their mutual influence should combine exponentially, not linearly. Along about the middle of April, we can expect the worst quake season which has been felt in many months. See the Earth Changes 2003 Almanac Calendar for timing details.

VOLCANOES
Around the world with the most interesting and relevant volcano stories; briefs on the likely eruptions as well as coverage of on-going activity.

REPEAT FROM LAST WEEK: Krsanna, whose predictions I do not understand, predicts the potential of an upsurge in volcanism through the Equatorial Belt during March 11-23. Since her prediction corresponds to the Full Moon Perigee Syzygy during the Ides of March, as well as the violent geopolitical dynamics which are present in this late winter period, I quote it herein: Volcanic eruptions could begin anew in the Caribbean, Mediterranean and Africa as well as an increase of earthquakes in the South Atlantic. Electrical and magnetic storms are probable along with surprise asteroids. As its name, Earth, implies this window located near the Sandwich Islands is key to conditions of the planet. Conditions associated with Atlantis are closely linked to this window. These include volcanoes and earthquakes in the Caribbean and Mediterranean as well as electrical and magnetic storms. The full moon on the 18th days before the spring equinox is a critical period when the lunar count for Easter begins. This will be a politically and geophysically active period when war-like elements could become explosive with renewed terrorist activity. These conditions will continue through Easter in April. From TimeStar Earth, timestar@timestar.org, http://www.timestar.org

Hood is sound asleep and El Popo began to doze, offering a 12 puff day yesterday. Centrapred reports for March 5 (16:00 GMT) that “In the last 24 hours the overall activity level was stable. There were 12 exhalations with small to moderate intensity, accompanied by steam, gas and sometimes small amounts of ash. The most important of them occurred today at 10:05 h, producing a steam and ash column reaching about 1 km above the crater (see image). Also, a microearthquake with magnitude 2.5 and depth of 7 km, was located at 3 km from the crater on the Southeastern sector. Isolated episodes of low amplitude harmonic tremor were recorded accumulating less than 1 hour. The other monitored parameters remain without important changes. At this moment a light emission of steam and gas is observed (see image). The explosive events recorded in the past weeks were related with the destruction of the lava dome inside the crater previously reported. As long as there are remains of the dome, which was confirmed recently (see image), explosive activity is possible implying ash emissions and incandescent material ejections around the crater.

Volcanic activity this past seven days has definitely slumped. The Southwest Volcano Centre reports 34 volcanoes on the alert status list (down six from last week), 5 volcanoes on the restless list (same as last week), and 21 on the active eruption list (down two from last week).

AG INDUSTRY WATCH
Because of the high load of stress which the current peak in the sunspots have placed on the Ag industry, we alert on the changing scene in agriculture and how these are likely to effect the broader economy.

CONFIRMED - AS PREDICTED LAST FEW WEEKS: I believe that the drought is now ending and that this ending will be apparent by March.

AS PREVIOUSLY REPORTED: The drought damage to Central and Northern Arizona was truly huge, the largest eco-catastrophe I have ever witnessed at first hand. Well over a million acres of forest land, at least, just in Arizona, are now populated by large numbers of dead trees. In some ranges, all the trees of a certain type are dead, in other ranges, the percentages can vary from 10% to 90%. Pinions were the hardest hit, followed by Ponderosa. The incredibly hardy Juniper has also succumbed in some areas.

NEW THIS WEEK: Unfortunately, the destruction wrought by the drought among the Pines in Arizona has been even more severe than previously reported. On Monday I noticed that the hillsides around picturesque Prescott Arizona have been severely browned out by dead strands of Ponderosa. Something in the range of 30 to 50 percent of the Ponderosa forest around Prescott, which is normally cloaked in forest green, has died during the past few months.

ECONOMIC WATCH

AS PREVIOUSLY PREDICTED: It is doubtful that any economic recovery will begin to be felt until much later in the year, probably not until Fall of 2003.

DITECH.COM ARBITRAGER: I am going to watch how close the arbitrager for Ditech.com calls it. I am placing a bet on their interest rate calculations, which are so finely chiseled, they have to be running pretty sophisticated indicator stats. When they clearly go up at least two pegs within a month, even if they are just very small increments, you will know there is wind in the sails of the economy.

AS REPORTED LAST WEEK: For mid-February, their rates were 5.5 and 5.804. As of today, the rates stood lower at 5.375 and 5.677. Clearly, this arbitrager has determined that, despite the increase in fuel prices, which will push some inflation through the system, the overall trend in the economy is STILL DIRE. Has the recession ended? Not according to these money managers.

War Jitters are causing 200 point mood swings in the DJI nearly everyday. It will finally dawn on Wall Street that the Imperial Faction is stalled in the water rowing aimlessly around in the circle. Expect a sudden downward plunge and then the beginning of a real firming up as the world begins to respond to French-German-Russian leadership on the international issues.

AS PREVIOUSLY PREDICTED: Stocks will close this week in the range of flat plus or minus 200 at 8000. CONFIRMED.

PREDICTION CLOSE FOR THIS WEEK: in the range of flat plus or minus 200 at 8000

If a sudden strike occurs in IRAQ, which may occur in the later part of March, the market will suddenly sink 500 points and then quickly rebound in a few days up towards 8900. But don’t get fooled. This rebound will be too fast and the DJI will spend many more months swamping around in the low to mid 8000’s. A fundamental shift in the economy has to be felt before stocks begin to ride the next Bull.

GEO-POLITICAL WATCH
How are the sunspots likely to most effect human affairs during the weeks and months ahead?

SIGN OF THE TIMES: Ken Lay, just a good ole boy Texan, the Presiding Officer of the rape of California Consumers, otherwise known as Enron, is still scott free with his crooked billions…But the Enron Wicked Web of greed and gross and egregious “taking advantage of everyone” is beginning to unravel. Enron is now suing Ken Lay directly for the return of some money, 2003 should be a great year for a continuing soap opera of scandalous corporate news. Or maybe not. Maybe America’s hot adventure news show, “The Empire Strikes Back”, will keep the corporate scandals under the rug.

AS PREVIOUSLY ENCOURAGED, if you have never read 1984, now is the time. AND HOW. All the strategies and techniques of Hitler’s and Goebbels agitprop and disinformation technology is currently being employed everyday in massive doses against YOU. You had best wake up to how the mantras work. Check out the Media Lens organization. They are providing some really good wake up antidote. http://www.medialens.org

AS PREDICTED LAST WEEK: It will be very hard for the Imperial Faction to recover from this fatal position of worldwide opposition, nearly complete loss of Bush’s and Powell’s personal credibility, and the manipulation which is swirling around everywhere. Eurasian powers are successfully taking over the issue of Iraq and sidelining Bush. Some of his partisans seem nearly oblivious to the success with which the Euros have redefined the issues to block an invasion of Iraq.

It seems, or it is made to seem as if the Imperial Faction is pushing ahead regardless, that Bush and Blair will squeeze the trigger within a couple of weeks. This is the line which is being pumped out in a variety of ways. But, in the face of so much opposition, it seems too surreal to be true…..how is the U.S. going to get the U.N. Inspections Team out of Iraq if they don’t want to go? What is the Pope shows up or he sends teams of cardinals to Baghdad? What happens if the U.N. Secretary General decides to camp out in Baghdad for a couple of weeks of consultations. What about the strong currents in the Catholic Church which are underway to intervene directly…

Whatever is true, expect the unexpected. VOTE IN THE WORLD PARLIAMENT FORUM AS SOON AS POSSIBLE AND PRAY LIKE THE HEAVENS.

ALL BELOW AS PREVIOUSLY REPORTED:

EXTREMELY HIGH DANGER ALERT
While the Imperial Faction wings things day by day, Bush and thus we are highly prone to manipulation by insurgent forces, either within the military industry complex, or from Alqaeda. There may be a grave risk of a sudden, sneaky, preemptive attack during the early part of April or the end of March. Osama Bin Laden may set the trap he has been preparing for the last decade by encouraging the Bush Faction to take this unilateral step. He may provide the U.S. with a “Maine”, with an incident which has an ambiguous Iraqi signature.

Or, the dirty tricks department of the CIA may simply invent an attack on U.S soldiers by Iraqi soldiers which strangely gets out of control. In the spirit of self-defense, U.S. troops quickly find themselves in Baghdad. This is not so crazy, it will be in the grand tradition of what the CIA does.

Adventures by Iranians seem remote.

Spirit sources advise that only massive demonstration of support for the French proposal will stop the invasion. A massive email campaign could help trigger support for the French proposal. (THIS IS UNDERWAY AND MAY HELP).

AS STATED LAST WEEK, a reasonably centrist Democrat, Diane Feinstein from California, seems to have boiled down the entire international debate in a few pithy lines which are good enough and reasonable enough to carry the day forward on a reasonable basis. She observes that Saddam Hussein is a “WORLD PROBLEM” and she notes that virtually the entire world (outside of the hawks in the Bush Administration and the Republican ranks) wants Saddam and his disarmament dealt with as a WORLD SOLUTION, imposed by and through the U.N. – NOT the U.S