EarthMonitor

Earth Changes Bulletin Update As Of June 11, 2003

FOR NEWBIES: The vortex tectonics paradigm of the earth holds that polar motion in the 6.5 year wobble cycle (Chandler’s) creates the major stress in the Earth’s crust which is released by lunar tidal forces each month in the form of earthquakes and volcanism. The acceleration in the motion of the drift of the poles and its relocation forces an increasing tempo in the shape shifting of the Equatorial zone, where 70% of tectonic activity occurs. Accordingly, earthquakes and volcanic activity should increase in frequency and magnitude.

PLANETS (all time coordinates here and elsewhere are in UTC unless otherwise noted)

The Moon this day is in its South Node (South of the Earth’s Equator) and we entered into the Full Moon Syzygy Window today, June 11. The Full Moon will be on June 14 with Perigee preceding it on June 12. (Perigee = the Moon’s closest approach to the Earth during its monthly orbit which increases gravitational influence of the Moon by as much as 15%; Apogee = the Moon’s greatest distance from the Earth during its monthly orbit).

Yesterday a planetary alignment formed up between Mercury | Uranus (as of June 10). This alignment apparently created a huge spike in sunspots at 220

The next planetary alignment is on June 30 between and Mercury | Venus. This should be a triple X sunspot window, which should start to peak above 100 on the Summer Solstice or a few days thereafter.

Speaking of the Summer Solstice, it’s June 22 19:10 UTC Earth Summer Solstice
Earth orbit Apogee is July 4.

See Earth Changes 2003 Almanac Calendar for additional details
http://www.michaelmandeville.com/ebooks/calendar2003/
The Almanac lays out the planets and the lunar phases for entire year in advance to allow you to find the best and worst periods of weather, earthquake activity, ethereal “lunar” influences, etc.

PLANET WATCHING:

Jupiter: Step outside after sunset--even if the sky is still glowing, bright Jupiter and the near Full Moon will be easy to see. NASA: “A small telescope trained on Jupiter will reveal the planet's cloud belts and its largest satellites.” Jupiter is hard to miss. It will be the first star which is visible at sunset while looking to the Southwest (if you live in the Northern Hemisphere).

Mars: now something a little after midnight. It is red, bright, and will get redder and brighter as the Summer progresses. It will progressively rise earlier and earlier in the evening until it rises, at Earth Alignment at the end of August, just at Sunset.

Mars will be closer than it has been in some 76,000 years, so say some astronomy sources. This is one of the reasons why the Europeans and the Americans are popping off missions to Mars this month. The space craft will get there a whole lot faster than otherwise.

AND OMIGOD WHAT WAS NASA THINKING. –Sunspots at over 200 yesterday with the Sun spritzing out CME’s and flares on an hourly basis.
Yesterday’s launch by NASA was not good timing from a solar science point of view. They should have waited another few days. The solar weather right now is very petulant and unpredictable. A major X class flare could emerge at any moment and burn out the electronic equipment on the probes.

SUNSPOTS
The events in the solar atmosphere which impact weather and climate patterns, the magnetic field and auroras, including forecasts for the week, month, and year ahead. To follow the numbers below, view the Solar Cycle 23 Chart at
http://www.michaelmandeville.com/earthmonitor/topten_monitor.htm

Sunspots sank to 57 on June 3 and rose sharply during the past five days to 205 as of June 10, yesterday. MOST DISTURBING, SOLAR FLUX INDEX HAS CLIMBED FROM 105 TO 177 ON A VERY STEEP SLOPE.

Both counts are still rising rapidly on very steep slopes as of yesterday, expect the counts to climb even higher.

Mercury, messenger of the Gods, and Uranus, God of Change, apparently have a strong connection. In light of the on-going scene in the Mid-East, I will leave the obvious interpretation of this to your own meditation.

FRANKLY, expect more violence than ever.

MAJOR DING AWARD: FLAT WRONG LAST WEEK’S PROJECTION: “The June 10 alignment has probably already produced a very minor peak in sunspots”. I waxed hopefully last week that Sunspot Cycle 23 was definitely over and that conditions should get a lot more normal. Apparently I was whistling Dixie. (for non-Americans, that is a metaphor for bravely but futilely hoping for a return to the good old days).

AS REPORTED: Over all, the sunspot average count for February was 46.4 and for March it rose to 61.5. The number for April was 60. May’s average is 55 (as reported by Jan Alvestad).

As of this moment, the Solar Wind Speed is robust at 580.9 km/s but at this hour (about 2 PM, AZ time) it is pushing only a modest density indeed of 1.5 protons/cm3. These momentary fluctuations mean little during times such as this week. Currently the Fluxgate Charts at the University of Alaska ( which measures magnetic disturbances in the Earth’s atmosphere) are all over the landscape. The solar wind is highly gusty and unpredictable, sometimes highly choppy.

NASA REPORTS: “Solar activity is high. Giant sunspot 375 has unleashed a series of strong solar flares including two X-class explosions--one on June 9th (2135 UT) and another on June 11th (0000 UT). Although several coronal mass ejections have billowed away from the sun, it's possible that none were Earth-directed. The one pictured here, for instance, on June 10th was most likely a backside event.”

NASA PREDICTS: Sky watchers should be alert for auroras (gallery) in case some of these CMEs do reach our planet. This could happen as early as June 11th. The best observing sites would be at high latitudes--e.g., southern parts of New Zealand and Australia, Canada, and northern US states like Wisconsin and Michigan.

This prediction is far too tepid. Again, go for Jan Alvestad’s prediction. He predicts a lot of interference with high solar winds and flares at 60 percent plus probability and major CME’s at 20 to 60 percent probability.

Jan Alvestad predicts: “The geomagnetic field is expected to be unsettled to active for most of June 11. There is a chance of a CME arriving late in the day. In that case activity could increase to major storm levels. On June 14-15 a high speed stream from coronal hole CH43 will likely dominate the solar wind and cause unsettled to active conditions. Long distance medium wave (AM) band propagation along east-west paths over high and upper middle latitudes is useless and will likely be very poor to useless until at least June 17. Propagation along north-south paths is poor. [Trans Atlantic propagation conditions are currently monitored every night on 1470 kHz. Dominant station tonight: none, only a few unidentified signals heard. Otherwise (on other frequencies) only a few stations from Brazil were noticed.].”
See http://www.dxlc.com/solar/

NEWBIES: for a discussion of what has been learned with the planetary alignments producing high sunspot counts and solar storms and these in turn creating major storm activity in the Earth’s atmosphere, tune into this Sunspot Section in the last Earth Changes Bulletin Update:
http://www.michaelmandeville.com/earthmonitor/ecbulletins/
ecbulletin_April30_2003.htm
watch the possible wrap of URLs onto a second line - any segment which dangles on a second line must be copied manually into the browser after clicking on the first line.

EARTH WEATHER PREDICTION FOR THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS:

The weather this past week performed pretty much as expected, but now
EXPECT THE WEATHER TO GO TO HELL
HELLO EXTREME TORNADOES
HELLO DROUGHT & HEAT CONDITIONS IN THE USUAL PLACES
FLOODS IN HIGH LATITUDES
DELAYED MONSOON

GLOBAL DROUGHT AND FLOOD WATCH
Stories and assessments about drought and flood conditions around the world; global information which provides the ability to assess the impacts to agriculture and the natural environment. For additional details, see http://www.michaelmandeville.com/ebooks/calendar2003

Ethiopia, East Africa, and Southern India are in dire straits. Severe damage is destroying the eco-system and the human cultures.

EL NINO WATCH:

AS PREVIOUSLY PREDICTED: There may be a La Nina during the later part of 2003 and through part of 2004, but it is likely that it will be barely noticeable because of the accumulated “Global Warming” and the relatively high levels of volcanic heat venting in the Earth. The next El Nino is likely to appear in 2005 or 2006.

CHEMTRAILS
See http://www.deepspace4.com/pages/main/pagemain.htm
See also http://www.willthomas.net/

NEW ARTICLE THIS WEEK
Chemtrails Update – A Major New Overview
http://www.rense.com/general38/update.htm

EARTHQUAKES
Around the world to see the current and potential patterns of seismic activity, with coverage of the windows of danger. I prepared this section by pulling out the Earth Changes 2003 Calendar which has everything plotted on it. You should too. Check out the Almanac as well, it discusses all of the windows for the year and even spotlights the two most dangerous windows.

Magnitudes during this past week were moderate, with one 6.0 on Taiwan and one 6.6 quake in, of course, Papua New Guinea. Frequencies were about normal for this non-syzygy period. The highest count for 2.5 plus quakes was on June 5 at 15 quakes, all other days had counts under 15.

RECENT EVENTS OF INTEREST THIS PAST FEW DAYS

Quake activity was widely scattered throughout all continents and margins but the greater activity was on the Western Pacific Rim. Like the preceding week, the greatest activity
was along the Pacific Plate margin from Japan down through the Philippines to Borneo and then East through Papua to Fiji and New Zealand. Zones of concentration were Japan, Papua New Guinea, Taiwan, Carib Plate, California.

Magnitude 6.0 TAIWAN
http://neic.usgs.gov/neis/bulletin/neic_uwam.html
2003 June 10 08:40:29 UTC
Preliminary Earthquake Report
U.S. Geological Survey, National Earthquake Information Center
World Data Center for Seismology, Denver
Magnitude 6.0
Date-Time Tuesday, June 10, 2003 at 08:40:29 (UTC) - Coordinated Universal Time
Tuesday, June 10, 2003 at 04:40:29 PM local time at epicenter
Time of Earthquake in other Time Zones
Location 23.47N 121.50E
Depth 33.0 kilometers
Region TAIWAN
Reference 55 km (35 miles) S of Hua-lien, Taiwan
90 km (55 miles) NNE of T'ai-tung, Taiwan
110 km (70 miles) E of Chia-i, Taiwan
180 km (110 miles) S of T'AI-PEI, Taiwan
Source USGS NEIC (WDCS-D)
Remarks Felt on much of Taiwan. Recorded (5 TAP) in T'ai-tung; (4 TAP) in Chang-hua, Chia-i, Hua-lien, I- lan, Nan-t'ou, T'ai-chung, T'ai-nan, T'ai-tung and Yun-lin; (3 TAP) in Hsin-chu, Kao-hsiung, Miao- li, Ping-tung, T'ai-pei and T'ao-yuan Counties and (2 TAP) on Chin-Men Tao

Magnitude 6.6 NEW BRITAIN REGION, PAPUA NEW GUINEA
http://neic.usgs.gov/neis/bulletin/neic_utac.html
2003 June 07 00:32:44 UTC
Preliminary Earthquake Report
U.S. Geological Survey, National Earthquake Information Center
World Data Center for Seismology, Denver
Magnitude 6.6
Date-Time Saturday, June 07, 2003 at 00:32:44 (UTC) - Coordinated Universal Time
Saturday, June 07, 2003 at 10:32:44 AM local time at epicenter
Time of Earthquake in other Time Zones
Location 5.10S 152.34E
Depth 33.0 kilometers
Region NEW BRITAIN REGION, PAPUA NEW GUINEA
Reference 100 km (60 miles) S of Rabaul, New Britain, PNG
105 km (65 miles) SW of Taron, New Ireland, PNG
745 km (460 miles) NE of PORT MORESBY, Papua New Guinea
2475 km (1540 miles) N of Brisbane, Australia
The following is a release by the United States Geological Survey, National Earthquake Information Center: A strong earthquake occurred IN THE NEW BRITAIN REGION OF PAPUA NEW GUINEA, about 90 km (55 miles) south of Rabaul or about 740 km (460 miles) northeast of Port Moresby at 6:32 PM MDT, Jun 6, 2003 (Jun 07 at 10:32 AM local time in New Britain). The magnitude and location may be revised when additional data and further analysis results are available. There have been no reports of damage.


Magnitude 4.0 KENTUCKY
http://neic.usgs.gov/neis/bulletin/neic_usay.html
2003 June 06 12:29:34 UTC
Preliminary Earthquake Report
U.S. Geological Survey, National Earthquake Information Center
World Data Center for Seismology, Denver
Magnitude 4.0
Date-Time Friday, June 06, 2003 at 12:29:34 (UTC) - Coordinated Universal Time
Friday, June 06, 2003 at 07:29:34 AM local time at epicenter
Time of Earthquake in other Time Zones
Location 36.89N 89.01W
Depth 0.1 kilometers
Region KENTUCKY
Reference 20 km (10 miles) SE of Cairo, Illinois
40 km (25 miles) WSW of Paducah, Kentucky
215 km (135 miles) NNE of Memphis, Tennessee
330 km (205 miles) S of SPRINGFIELD, Illinois
Source Center for Earthquake Research and Information, Memphis, Tennessee, USA
Remarks Slight damage (VI) at Bardwell. Felt (IV) at Clinton and Wickliffe. Felt in western Kentucky and in parts of Alabama, Arkansas, Illinois, Indiana, Missouri and Tennessee.


EARTHQUAKES IN THE NEW MADRID SEISMIC ZONE
The New Madrid seismic zone of southeast Missouri and adjacent States is the most seismically active in North America east of the Rockies. During the winter of 1811-1812, three very large earthquakes devastated the area and were felt throughout most of the Nation. Hundreds of aftershocks, some severely damaging by themselves, continued for years. Prehistoric earthquakes similar in size to those of 1811-1812 occurred in the middle 1400's and around 900 A.D. Strongly damaging earthquakes struck the southwestern end of the seismic zone near Marked Tree, Arkansas in 1843 (magnitude 6.3), and the northeastern end near Charleston, Missouri in 1895 (magnitude 6.6). Since 1900, moderately damaging earthquakes have struck the seismic zone every few decades. About twice a year people feel still smaller earthquakes that do not cause damage.
Earthquakes in the central and eastern U.S. are typically felt over a much broader region than in the western U.S. East of the Rockies, an earthquake can be felt over an area as much as ten times larger than a similar magnitude earthquake on the west coast. A magnitude 4.0 eastern U.S. earthquake typically can be felt at many places as far as 100 km (60 mi) from where it occurred, and it infrequently causes damage near its source. A magnitude 5.5 eastern U.S. earthquake usually can be felt as far as 500 km (300 mi) from where it occurred, and sometimes causes damage out to 40 km (25 mi).

MADRID FAULTS
Earthquakes everywhere occur on faults within bedrock, usually several miles deep. The earthquakes of the New Madrid seismic zone occur within a large network of faults called the Reelfoot rift. The rift formed about 500 million years ago, when this region was stretched in the northwest-southeast direction. Along a northeast-southwest zone at least 70 km (40 mi) wide and 500 km (300 mi) long, the rocks in the rift were slowly dropped down about 1-2 km (1 mi) along some of the faults. Now the region is undergoing east- west shortening, and the ancient faults of the Reelfoot rift are being reactivated to generate earthquakes. Today the Reelfoot rift and the New Madrid seismic zone are 2,000 km (1,200 mi) from the nearest plate boundary, which is in the Caribbean Sea.

The network of faults in the seismic zone is buried beneath hundreds to thousands of feet of sand and mud. Four of the largest faults are recognized as alignments of abundant small earthquakes, and movements along two of these faults dammed rivers and created lakes during the earthquakes of 1811-1812. A few more deeply buried faults were detected during oil and gas exploration, and a few small faults are known from geologic mapping. However, many earthquakes occur away from the few known faults, so there must be additional, unknown faults that can generate earthquakes in the seismic zone. Accordingly, the best overall guide to seismic hazard in the New Madrid seismic zone is the earthquakes themselves.

To see the world quake chart by the USGS, click on
http://neic.usgs.gov/neis/current/

Overall North American activity was in the groove of the Syzygy Window Principle.
The USGS charts (such charts show all quakes 1.0 and above) for the U.S. and Alaska show 272 quakes for the past seven days (which is down from last week’s 361) with the USGS chart for California/Nevada showing 209 quakes in California/Nevada during the past seven days (which is down from last week’s 275).

Activity in California in proportion to activity in the remainder of North America has dramatically escalated again after returning to nearly normal last week. During more normal times in the past, California/Nevada activity has typically been in the range of 100-125 for a non-syzygy week.

BUT IN PROPORTION TO THE REST OF THE PACIFIC RIM, quake activity along the Western coasts of both North and South America seems diminished. You can probably therefore EXPECT MUCH MORE ACTIVITY DURING THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS IN CALIFORNIA, MEXICO, ALASKA, PERU, CHILE, ECUADOR.

The trends for most of North America were in the groove as well:
The USGS Chart of Yellowstone Cauldera Area shows 10 microquakes during the last week (down from last week’s 33) and 9 quakes scattered throughout Utah (down from 29 last week). Hood had no microquakes and the USGS chart for Long Valley Cauldera (Area) showed a running total of 7 (down from 19 last week).

But the Pacific Northwest was slightly contrarian.
The USGS Chart for the Pacific Northwest reveals 32 quakes (two week sum, up one from 31microquakes last week) scattered throughout a five state area. To this contrarian action we must add the 4 quakes shown in the USGS Charts for the Madrid Fault zone. These were mostly in the West tip of Kentucky.

VOLCANOES
Around the world with the most interesting and relevant volcano stories; briefs on the likely eruptions as well as coverage of on-going activity.

El Popo offered a 22 puff day yesterday, up from last Wednesday, but even so, the lack of other activity at Popo prompted Centrapred officials to announce that the current eruption episode which began in April is now over. Centrapred reports for June 11 (16:00 GMT) that “In the last 24 hours the monitoring system of the Popocatepetl volcano recorded 22 low intensity exhalations, mainly accompanied by steam, gas and some times with ash. The most important occurred yesterday at 17:44 (local) generating an ash column of 3 km high and directed to the West. In addition there were detected some episodes of low amplitude harmonic tremor for a total of 2 hours. The other monitored parameters remain without important changes. At this moment there is no visibility to the volcano due to clouds. Derived from the analysis of the activity of the last three weeks, it is considered that the process that started last April, has stopped and the volcano is in a stationary condition.”

Following on last week’s subsidence of volcanic activity worldwide, activity this past seven days has increased. The Southwest Volcano Centre reports 37 volcanoes on the alert status list (up 2 from 35 from last week), 5 volcanoes on the restless list (up one from 4 from last week), and 21 on the active eruption list (up 2 from 19 from last week).

ONCE AGAIN - Great new photo’s of Kilauea were posted at
http://www.swvrc.org/cerupt.htm

CAYCE VOLCANISM WATCH: No pattern is currently evident exactly, is this the upsurge in tropical volcanism to mirror the quakes along the margin of the Antarctic Tectonic Plate? The connection is still tenuous. I think it will take a lot of statistical profiling to explore this question.

ECONOMIC WATCH - Within one or two seeks, this section will mostly disappear into special pages behind the passwords into the paid ebooks section.

AS PREVIOUSLY PREDICTED: It is doubtful that any economic recovery will begin to be felt until later in the year, probably not until Fall of 2003.

Mass media “recovery noises” are, uh, coming out the wrong end of the Bulls.

DITECH.COM ARBITRAGER:
Their TV ad rates were the same as last week’s: 4.875 and 5.168 as of today for short and long term rates.

Economy remains with no apparent wind in its sails.

AS REPORTED LAST WEEK: (we were right on about this one)
“THE BULLS HAVE STARTED STOMPING. Typically, economic recovery is heralded by a steady uptick in the stock market. It appears that May was the signal for this. Expect the stock market to keep reaching for larger numbers but expect a lot of sudden mood swings. There are a lot of factors out there which can suddenly spook the Bulls”.

Given the strong “apparent” upsurging of DJI values, I am repeating last week’s warnings below.

I STRONGLY ADVISE NOT FOLLOWING THE LEAD OF THE STOCK BULLS. TOO MANY PEOPLE ARE GOING TO OVER-REACT. THE COMING STOCK BUBBLE IS PROBABLY GOING TO BE IRRATIONAL BY ALL LIGHTS. PART OF THE PROBLEM IS THE SAME AS IN 1929. MONEY IS SOOOOOOOOO CHEAP, IT IS TOOOOOO EASY TO SPECULATE ON IRRATIONAL MARGINS.

Don’t put money in this bubble on a blind flyer from the New York tipsters. Avoid as well most of the internet tipsters. There are a lot of market makers out there with newsletters who talk up a small volume stock. Why? For newsletter subscription fees? Hahahah. Just to double their money at your expense. I suspect the problem is rampant. Stock tipstering is the ultimate pyramid scam. Know what you are doing.

EURO WATCH -
Here is the two year chart for the value of the dollar vis a vis the Euro
http://finance.yahoo.com/m5?s=USD&t=EUR&a=1&c=2
In Mid November 2001, the dollar could purchase about Euro 1.18
In May 2002, the dollar could purchase about Euro 1.10.
During the past two months, the dollar could purchase about Euro .91 to.93
Six weeks ago, the dollar could purchase about Euro .8946
Four weeks ago the dollar could purchase about Euro .8745
Three weeks ago the dollar could purchase about Euro .859
Two weeks ago the dollar could purchase about Euro 0.8507
Last week the dollar could purchase about Euro 0.859
Today the dollar can purchase about Euro 0.8505

In other words, the dollar on average appears to have stabilized this past two weeks. This comes after Bush told the G8 that he supports a strong dollar policy, which apparently was a signal he put out to over-ride rumors and comments from other U.S. government officials that the U.S. was shifting to a weak dollar policy.

BUT AS PREVIOUSLY REPORTED: Nonetheless, the international talk is abuzz about the weakening of the dollar. Most analysts expect the dollar to end up in the range of .70 sometime in the latter part of this year or early next year. So for the moment a finger in the dike is holding back the flooding of cheap dollars, but don’t expect this pause this week to last very long. MORE LIKELY THAN NOT, THE GIANT SUCKING SOUND OF VALUE BEING REMOVED FROM THE AMERICAN ECONOMY WILL CONTINUE. I STILL believe that it is well worth buying euros now.

The job situation still looks bleak and it will probably remain bleak throughout this year unless you have a clean background and are willing to work for less than $10 in the burgeoning security industry.

GENERAL PREDICTION DJI AVERAGES:

The Bulls are making a lot of noises but expect that conditions will remain unstable. American strategy and tactics in the Middle East have clearly failed and everything there is turning into a nightmare. The markets will go south a little bit for at least a month.

The DJI gained 500 points during April with many 200 point mood swings to close April 30 at 8,502. The DJI gained another 350 points or so in May with many of the same kind of mood swings to close the month on May 29 at 8,850.26. This gave the DJI averages 50 more points than the range I predicted last week.

We can probably expect to see an acceleration of growth during June. By the time the Dog Days set in the DJI may be up in the range of 9500, plus or minus 300, BUT this is proviso because of the fragility of both the economy and international politics. Strong negatives in the news could depress these numbers and keep the DJI under 9000. Eventually this number will flatten during July and August and will then continue to inch up during the Fall. By the end of the year, the DJI may be pushing 10,000, but only if jobs are being created and retailers are reporting a decent year end sales season.

Today, June 11, the DJI was at 9,183. This is too high. Expect sudden mood swings downward in the range of as much as 300. The market will probably close under 9100 this week.

I AM IN A POSITION, BASED ON MY OWN LOGIC AND BASED ALSO ON CONFIRMATION FROM PSYCHIC CONNECTIONS WHICH I HAVE VALIDATED, TO PEG THE MARKETS EVEN MORE SHARPLY FOR JULY 2003 AND FOR JANUARY 2004. THIS INFORMATION WILL BE PROVIDED CONNECTED ON THE EBOOKS ACCESS PAGE:

http://www.michaelmandeville.com//ebooks/ebooksaccess.htm

It will not be posted until next week.

IF YOU ARE BUYING STOCK, BUY ONLY FUNDAMENTALS. ANYTHING ELSE IS STUPID, UNLESS YOU HAVE DETAILED INSIDER KNOWLEDGE OF A COMPANY AND ITS PROSPECTS. YOU HAVE TO KNOW PERSONALLY THE CEO. FAILING THIS, YOU ARE MERELY SUCKER BAIT FOR A PATHOLOGICALLY DISHONEST GENERATION OF VIPERS AND SCAMSTERS. THERE ARE MANY RABIDLY DESPERATE TIPSTER TOOTERS OUT THERE WITH REALLY WELL WRITTEN SLICK EXTREMELY CONVINCING NEWSLETTERS ABOUT HOW THEY ARE MAKING 10,000 PERCENT PROFIT MARGINS ON TRADES OF UNDER A YEAR IN DURATION. THESE NEWSLETTERS ARE NOW POURING INTO MY EMAIL BOXES. THE ONLY WAY THEY CAN ACHIEVE THOSE RESULTS IS TO PYRAMID SCHEME YOU INTO PUSHING UP THE VALUE FOR THE INITIAL INSIDERS. YOU WILL BE LEFT HOLDING THE BAG.

JUST SAY NO.

MAJOR ADVERSE CONTINGENCIES:

SARS - The SARS virus may disrupt even more air travel enough to cause another depressive wave to flow through the economy, which will send the stock market south by a long ways. If so, ALL BETS are off. This nasty downward economic spiral could continue and induce another huge depressionary wave.

Conditions in Iraq - chaotic
Saddam – this old troll is going to create more problems
U.S. Diplomacy - distracted, unfocused, and self-contradicted
Price of Oil - improving
Osama Bin Laden and Al Qaeda – the threat is growing
Palestinian Peace Process – What peace process? The entire program has just been defeated by Al Qaeda
U.S. Credibility – the weapons of mass destruction Big Lie is coming home to roost, this may undermine the stock markets with jitters about the survival of the Bush administration.

HEALTH WATCH

SARS SITUATION: Ian Wuolle reports that there are nasty rumors circulating in the San Francisco Bay area that dozens of people have died, HUSH HUSH, in area hospitals. I will report what ever comes my way, I suggest that those who aggressively hunt for iway data keep an eye peeled for such rumors.

GEO-POLITICAL WATCH – sent separately this week

How are the sunspots likely to most effect human affairs during the weeks and months ahead?

SIGN OF THE TIMES: it looks like, America’s hot adventure “reality” show, “The Empire Strikes Back” HAS successfully keep much of the corporate scandals under the rug. Ken Lay, just a good ole boy Texan, the Presiding Officer of the rape of California Consumers, otherwise known as Enron, is still scott free with his crooked billions…None of the indicted crooks are in jail. ARE YOU SURPRISED?

SIGN OF THE TIMES III: We still have ABSOLUTELY NO EVIDENCE THAT SADDAM HUSSEIN HAD WEAPONS OF MASS DESTRUCTION. Are you holding your breath?

Weeellllll, my my. Sunspot counts soared. A few rounds of violence made the rounds in Palestine, and suddenly, NO MORE PEACE PLAN, leaving the entire problem for the moment unsolvable. I am afraid it is going to be for quite awhile.

Last week I was naively optimistic about the Peace Process. I stupidly assumed that Colin Powell would have a better handle on things in Palestine than the other wing of the Bush administration, which is walking around weaving a web of intrigue for invading Iran. But this week I see that the West in general and Bush’s Imperial Faction in particular have been completely defeated on this front and are,

AS A MATTER OF FACT,

CURRENTLY LOOSING WORLD WAR IV to master plotter Osama Bin Laden, who shows once again that he is at least two moves ahead on the chess board.

Implementing a peace accord is the most important step to take for winning the war on terrorism. With a Palestinian state in harmony with Israel, terrorism will slowly wane. BUT AL QAEDA HAS SUCCEEDED IN MAKING THAT IMPOSSIBLE FOR THE TIME BEING.

Bush and the Imperial Faction are currently stalemated, in a classic set of blocks and double-binds. There is NO SOLUTION to the current game (war on terrorism and debacle in Palestine) as it is currently structured.

The radical Islamics have correctly perceived the profound weakness of Western culture. Western corporatized elites have no concept of how to connect people together into a functional society. Accordingly, they cannot successfully occupy, hold, or transform the Middle-Eastern cultures. Accordingly, they cannot hope to successfully occupy any part of the Middle East, not in the long run of years.

Indeed, internally the West is plunging into a nadir of disintegration, the corporatized elites are busy ‘unmaking” all connections, all promises, all pensions, all guarantees, all regulated markets, all functional democratic political organization, the standard social safety nets. Instead of “making the man” into the family of society, the Western elites are unmaking everyone who is not already a part of the corporatized strata of wealth.

The greater portion of those who are doing this have no real understanding about what they are doing. They think they are living the old success fantasies of Horatio Alger, each separately pursuing personal success. But they are lost in Marie Antoinette ego-bubbles. They are pushing a combination of decisions, acts, and policies which are progressively destroying the entire social fabric instead of enriching it. They are doing the opposite of what they want to believe they are doing. They have no idea how to connect a single American back into a functionally acceptable world, accordingly, they have no idea how to engage Afghani’s, or Iraqi’s, or Palestinians into a social system of activity which works for ALL of them.

Even with draconian “total systems” efforts by brilliant strategic thinkers on the order of intelligence of an Alexander or a Caesar, who did know who to do such things, using old fashioned tribal concepts and methods of organizing a community into actual societies, we are at least a full year away from being able to stop the non-stop terrorism which is rapidly escalating throughout the Middle East.

Do you remember the body counts in Vietnam? Oh, you will. They will start reminding you. We realized it was serious when the daily count was in the range of 10 per day. Well, the direct U.S. military body count in the Middle East is now nearly 1.5 per day. I hate to tell you this but this count is probably just the beginning of the curve unless American policies take some sudden turns. Under Bush and the Imperial Faction it appears that it is going to get much worse.

Here is what is happening.

1. It is as laid out in the Al Qaeda strategy manual. Invoke a clash of cultures in a way which unifies Islamic organizations to cooperate jointly against Western powers.

2. Cause the Americans to over react and make mistakes, make brutalities, increase reactions against their over-reactions, cause Americans to become over-extended and unable to function with appropriate focus and resolve where they really need to.

3. Currently that is the situation on the ground in reality, stripped of all hype and projection. The U.S. military is holding Iraq and Afghanistan but is now progressively losing more and more casualties. New U.S. military initiatives in other areas are impossible without further weakening of these already weak and ineffectual occupations, but even so Rummy Rumsfield is talking ominously about the need to deal with Iran’s up and coming nuclear weapons.

4. From Palestine through to Pakistan, Islamic militants, for the first time ever, are now working as a coherent, coordinating but decentralized whole. This was one of the first main strategic goals of Al Qaeda. Read “Dune” and how the Empire on Dune was defeated by such a force.

5. In Palestine, all factions publicly claimed joint responsibility to the terrorist act which answered the “Roadmap For Peace”. Do you see the significance of this? The U.S. and Israel conspired to force Arafat out of the negotiations because he was a double dealing stooge of the militant organizations Hammas, etc. (which was true enough, he could not rule the Authority without them). The U.S. called him irrelevant. The U.S. conspired to create the current Prime Minister and begin a negotiation process with him. The four main militant organizations have just said no, killed some Israeli’s, and demonstrated that the new Prime Minister is in fact, irrelevant to making peace in Palestine, in fact, cannot make peace.

6. Thus Palestine is in checkmate. There is no peace process. Only an organized Palestinian state with power and resources and organization can make and impose a peace by controlling the militants. Such a state of affairs cannot be negotiated out of the existing circumstances. This leaves Palestine as a fertile breeding ground to continue the process of engaging and wearing down the West.

7. Obviously, we are not seeing a war just between Israel and the Palestinians. All forces have been enjoined in a common front to wage World War IV, Arab style, against the U.S., and NATO if it is stupid enough to join in.

8. Reactions are already stirring in Washington DC to have U.S. troops ride in as the calvalry to stop the terrorists in Gaza. This is a fatal attraction to a destiny fried in utter stupidity. This must be the heart throbbing fervent desire of Osama Bin Laden and his allies. U.S. military forces are over-armed, over-muscled, over-powered, 800 pound, historically and culturally naive guerillas who can do little more than demolish the teashop of Gaza and the Palestinian towns. THINK LEBANON. Do you want to really mortify the American public with a daily sniper count? Do you want to really piss off the Palestinians and topple the Saudi government, maybe Jordan as well? This will give you three out of the four points you need to do virtually all of it.

9. Every violent reaction on the part of Americans at this point will simply make all conditions worse. Americans MUST LEARN TO THINK AND USE THEIR DAMN BRAINS. Beating people up because we can simply does not create peace, does not create security, does not stop wars, does not win victories. Repeat three times and smoke three joints every time you think of picking up a gun or ordering more troops to the Middle East.

10. Currently, as conditions stand, Al Qaeda has succeeded in engaging the U.S. directly across a broad swath of diverse territory, much too big for it to understand and digest, and has begun a daily casualty count of U.S. fatalities from Palestine through to Pakistan. The U.S. has incompetently entered itself into this condition under an historically ignorant President with strategic advisors who are equally incompetent to the task. It has no effective tactics nor strategic plan for winning the vast guerilla war which is now unfolding and accelerating. Present American leadership is clueless about turning its weak, thin occupations into solutions. It is conceptually unable to even conceive of how to engage Muslims and many other Middle Eastern peoples in creating the foundations for just, stable, and enduring civil societies which are at peace.

11. Meanwhile the Mass Broadcast Media, which I have vociferously pilloried on these pages for their sins of manipulation, has begun to read the print press and is now very belatedly making the personal credibility of George Bush and the Imperial Faction a major issue. With the credibility of American government increasingly an issue, who will be able to govern effectively? Why is any foreign leader going to risk trying to help Bush?

11. At the height of American power, Americans have never been so vulnerable nor history so pregnant with potentials for ugly outcomes which could span years and years. What on irony.

EarthMonitor