Earth Changes Bulletin Update As Of January 8 2003
You have heard of the Weather Report? Here exclusively is this week’s "Earth Report" - a short review of the “big picture” about how the dynamic changes in the Sun and the Earth are effecting our lives more and more intensely, with the latest prognostications and predictions for weathermen, farmers, investors, businessmen, and every man

January and February will batter us us with high peaks of sunspots, storms, and chaotic weather patterns, but the prognosis looks good for late February. The mild, late appearing El Nino is breaking up rapidly and will be gone by February, the peak in Solar Cycle 23 should disappear for good by March, and thus the drought patterns will disappear. IF we can make it through to March without war, common sense may return, emotions cool, and peace may preserve much of the remainder of 2003 even if terrorism and the Palestinian struggle continues in the Mid East.
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Program Thesis: What are we trying to do with the Earth Changes Bulletin?

Most news media do not handle technical and scientific subjects like geology and earth sciences very well. They don't understand the causes and effects of activities in the Sun and Earth. Accordingly, they often do not understand if, when, how, why to report earthquakes, volcanic activity, global warming effects The treatment often sounds absent-minded, poorly qualified, and frequently contains various technical errors. Seldom is the treatment entertaining and genuinely educational.

Based on new scientific principles which have emerged during the past thirty years, many of the dynamic activities of the Sun and Earth can be linked together to see how a range of effects are linked together. This makes it possible to paint "the big picture" into a perspective which explains many diverse events and processes, especially climate and weather patterns such as global warming and El Nino. From the "big picture", long range predictions can be made for weeks and even months ahead.

The result is sophisticated cutting-edge information which is objective, balanced, astute, relevant, and can be easily seen and appreciated by lay audiences. The perspective is generally global, seldom parochial.
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POLAR MOTION
What is happening to the motion of the Earth.

AS REPORTED LAST SEVERAL WEEKS: Steady as she goes. As reported for the past few months, the current track of Chandler’s Wobble (the observed locations of the spin axis at the North Pole) continues to show an acceleration in the shifting of the average location of the spin axis. The recent acceleration may be in the approximate range of 6.5%. FOR A DESCRIPTION OF THIS DISPLACEMENT, SEE THE EARTH CHANGES BULLETIN OF NOVEMBER 13, 2002.

SUNSPOTS
The events in the solar atmosphere which impact weather and climate patterns, the magnetic field and auroras, including forecasts for the week, month, and year ahead.

WHOOOOOOAAAAAAAAA, the rollercoaster ride continues. After a sharp drop the last two weeks, both the solar flux index and the daily sunspot count is in another rapid climb. The overall Solar Flux Index, which measures the flare strength of the Sun, is now at about 165, sharply higher than last week. The daily sunspot count (SESC WOA counts by NASA/NOAA) are up even more dramatically, from about 45 on New Year’s Day to 195 yesterday and they are probably at 200 or more today.

These rapid increases are the “wave” being brought on by the rapidly growing alignment of Mercury and Earth, which will culminate on January 11. This alignment is in a very close spiraling alignment with Jupiter, which will no doubt add to the spike in sunspots and the ionic punch to the Earth’s atmosphere.

Along with today’s rising tide of solar flux and sunspots, NASA shows an energetic Sun, with large flares, a relatively large chance of major solar storm activity to appear during the next 48 hours and a likely quick increase in the solar wind from new coronal holes.

At the moment the Fluxgate Monitor at the U of Alaska shows very little activity (no magnetic disturbances in the Earth’s Atmosphere) and today’s Solar Wind Speed is a modest 272.1 km/s with a strong density of 6.8 protons/cm. Don’t bother looking for auroras tonight but you will not be disappointed in a few days if you can find skies clear enough. Exceptional magnetic disturbances should quickly appear and persist during much of January and the first half of February should be pretty good as well.

The dip down in the sunspot counts to a low of 45 is highly suggestive that Solar Cycle 23 is indeed past peak levels and is coming off the peak zone (peak = average monthly counts above 100), right about just now as a matter of fact.

But as we can see the alignments of the planets have the ability to peak out quite a bit of activity yet from this phase of the Sun’s cycle. Due to several alignments of the planets during January and February, a high level of activity will provide a strong stable platform of energy to feed more major storms on the Sun which will feed ions into the Earth’s atmosphere to feed several bouts of extreme weather patterns.

Mercury will directly align with Jupiter on January 14th. Since the three planets will be in such close angle proximity to each other as the Earth moves close into the same angle with Jupiter, expect the current spike in sunspots and solar activity to continue to climb modestly during the next several days, then begin to fall dramatically as the quick moving Mercury moves into alignment with Venus on January 22 and then with Mars on February 4. This close double whammy alignment created by Mercury is at a tight angle and accordingly the two alignments will act to some extent an extended single alignment which provides a plateau of high counts for well over a week. The sunspot counts should be quite high but since this alignment is at nearly 45 degrees to the Earth, Mercury, Venus, and Mars should begin to pull the expression of solar activity AWAY from the Earth, providing a period which lowers the actual chaos in Earth’s weather chaos.

Since the effects on the Earth’s weather take a good week or so to fully develop, expect a new surge of terrific storms coming off both the Pacific into North America and the Atlantic into Europe by the middle of next week to continue for several days at least to about January 22, then activity should abate until the alignment of Earth with Jupiter forms up on February 2.

By the beginning of February, Mercury’s alignments will be over with Earth and Venus but Earth will be moving into alignment with Jupiter on February 2. Since the Earth|Saturn alignment in December was so potent, I expect this alignment could be even more so. Accordingly expect another major surge in sunspot counts and solar storms to begin during the last few days of January and to persist for a couple of weeks during this long lasting alignment. As with the weather with attitude which appeared in December, and is about to appear for mid January, expect another huge surge of storms with exceptional attitude by about February 5 or so to last a good two weeks. Western shores of North America and Europe most likely will be slammed repeatedly.

Continue to expect anything with this Solar Cycle 23, but, despite the current escalations in counts which are created by January’s dense round of planetary alignments, I think that the peak is nearly done. By mid February I expect sunspot counts to stay permanently in the under 80 range and slowly fade away throughout the remainder of the year.

If we can get past the middle of February without an emotionally-precipitated war in the Middle East or elsewhere, we have decent prospects of avoiding war altogether as the sunspot counts fall off rapidly.

To follow these numbers, view the Solar Cycle 23 Chart at

http://www.michaelmandeville.com/earthmonitor/topten_monitor.htm

SOLAR VORTEX CALENDAR FOR 2003-2006

A complete calendar of planetary alignments and other key dates and relationships is being constructed as you read this and will be made available within a week or so to all subscribers who have made an annual donation. In the calendar will be keys for watching how to move stock during the next three years, both for Bear and Bull Markets. I expect one more bull market during these last days of the Fourth World. I will provide the best timing signals to those who have made this work possible.

GLOBAL DROUGHT AND FLOOD WATCH
Stories and assessments about drought and flood conditions around the world; global information which provides the ability to assess the impacts to agriculture and the natural environment.

The current pattern of recurring huge storm fronts and extensive precipitation is likely to continue well into February and then begin to dissipate. Storm fronts will tend to be the most severe four to seven days after the major inner planet alignments discussed above.

Anything could happen to the weather this Winter but at the current time the odds seemed stacked to chaos and many extremes which will emerge in the weather suddenly after a major solar flare or appearance of a new coronal hole.

The storm fronts against North America will NOT be a repeat of December’s activity against California. The distribution of the energy will change. The El Nino conditions are breaking up rapidly and thus the circulation patterns are shifting rapidly. Already major portions of the Southwest has gotten a good soaking the past few days.

EL NINO WATCH: Much better news for most of the world. The El Nino syndrome along the equator has been in rapid decline throughout December. The upsurge in warm water (above average in the range of 8 degrees F.) long a very wide expanse of the Equator in the Pacific ended in early November and now is only half of what it was at its peak. Levels are now at about what they were in September. It is likely the ocean temperature will continue to decline rapidly and that the El Nino Weather Syndrome will short out. In February they might start talking about a sudden return of La Nina! The climatologists scooped me out on successfully predicting a “mild” El Nino but here I am recovering by scooping them out on its rapid ending.

CHEMTRAILS

Have you noticed an escalation of activity? It sure seems like it here over central Arizona. I personally have had a classical after-chemtrails hack for the past three days. Activists groups are beginning to emerge calling for world wide citizen action this year to expose the activity and out the Dr. Strangelove’s who are doing this. A most excellent idea. I believe that each and every individual who is involved in the activity should become publicly known and exposed to crimes against humanity lawsuits. One good aspect about the Bush administration’s polarizing ways, people are getting angry all over the place in increasing numbers on a broad front of issues connected with lying and manipulation by the Empire. If there is anyone who would like to volunteer to send me a paragraph update once a week on this front for inclusion in this newsletter, I am all for it. I don’t have time to canvass any more than what I am doing.

EARTHQUAKES
Around the world to see the current and potential patterns of seismic activity, with coverage of the windows of danger.

EXCEPTIONAL HEADS-UP

January (the Earth’s Perihelion month is always a dangerous month for destructive Earthquakes in the Pacific area, most especially the Western Pacific, especially in Japan, the Philippines, China. I believe this is due to the uplifting pressure of Antarctica (the Sun pulls Antarctica up to its most northerly position during January) against the Pacific and Asian tectonic plates.

The new moon syzygy window for January was calculated by Jim Berkland to be January 1–8. Jim Berkland, a retired geologist on the west coast who has accurately predicted several large earthquakes in his career, has just let out an unusual secondary warning about a potential BIG ONE in North America. You can connect with this at
http://www.syzygyjob.net/jackcoles/messages/2139.shtml

Speaking of a man who is monitoring electromagnetic signals in the Earth’s crust, this is what Berkland said:

“Folks, Jack has just reported signals similar to those received prior to a great earthquake in Indonesia, with "echoes" passing around the Earth. Five strong signals were repeated last night (Jan 5th) emanating from east of San Francisco. Jack expects a 7.5-7.9M (but if it is close it may "only" be a 6.5). It should strike between Jan 6-22, 2003, with optimum dates being Jan 8-9, Jan 13-14, or Jan 20-21. I don't recall Jack reporting stronger signals. He mentioned Owens Valley, Utah, New Madrid, or even eastern U.S. but would not eliminate the eastern Hemisphere for signals this large. In any case, the world has not seen a 7+ since the great Alaskan Quake of Nov 3, 2002, so to get one within the next 15 days would be a pretty good call, especially if it strikes the western U.S.A. Jack will be watching closely to see if he can pin it down more closely.
I ask all of you do the same. My current window ends on January 8th, but Jan 17th already is an historic earthquake date, and this Jan 18th will be a full Moon date. “
jim

As predicted last week, the New Moon activity was pretty tepid, quake activity was muted in both frequency and magnitude. The USGS chart (such charts show all quakes 1.0 and above) for the U.S. and Alaska show 508 quakes for the past seven days (which is a comparatively modest number) with the USGS chart for California showing 345 of these in California during the past seven days (a normal number of a New Moon Syzygy) and the USGS Chart for the Pacific Northwest reveals a muted activity with only 20 micro quakes (two week sum) widely scattered through the Cascades and Eastern Washington (same as last week).

The USGS chart for Long Valley Cauldera (Area) shows 17 small quakes for the past week, typically in the range of 1.0 in magnitude, while the USGS Chart of Yellowstone Cauldera Area shows 66 small quakes during the last week. This level of activity is in the deadenly boring range of interest.

VOLCANOES
Around the world with the most interesting and relevant volcano stories; briefs on the likely eruptions as well as coverage of on-going activity.

Hood remains completely quiescent but El Popo gave us an 30 puff day today up substantially from previous weeks. Centrapred reports for January 8th (16:00 GMT) that “In the last 24 hours there were 30 small to moderate exhalations accompanied by steam, gas and in some times small amounts of ash. Also there were some episodes of harmonic and high frequency tremor. The other monitored parameters remain without important changes. At the moment of this report we can observe the volcano with a steam fumarole directed to the East.”

El Popo suggests an increasing trend in worldwide volcanic activity while the upsurge in seismic activity in the Yellowstone and Long Valley Caulderas suggest a decrease in volcanic activity. What are the facts?

The Southwest Volcano Centre reports 34 volcanoes on the alert status list (down substantially from last month, 7 volcanoes on the restless list (higher than the typical 5 to 6), and 19 on the active eruption list (down by a third from last month) with 10 activity change updates posted for the latter during the last two days In other words, activity overall is clearly down from last month.

But, like the earthquakes signals being monitored by those who work with Jim Berkland, who believe that a major quake may strike this month, Popo may be telling us to expect an upsurge of Volcanism during the next week. Perhaps the continuous lava flows at Etna and Stromboli are telling us the same thing.

AG INDUSTRY WATCH
Because of the high load of stress which the current peak in the sunspots have placed on the Ag industry, we alert on the changing scene in agriculture and how these are likely to effect the broader economy.

During this past month it is apparent that some ranges of Junipers are joining the massive die-off of the Pinion and Ponderosa Pines which seemed to peak in December of 2002. All along the eastern side of the Verde River in central Arizona, at about 4000 to 5000 feet in the countryside made famous by Zane Grey’s western novels, I noticed large numbers of Junipers giving up the green while Kimberbeth Simmons (a Saint from California) escorted me in her Jeep to the Big Sky Ranch in Snowflake. This rather sudden development in the Junipers gives the final lie to the idea that it is beetle infestations which are killing the pines It is the draught and it has caught all species to some extent.

I believe that the draught is now ending and that this ending will be apparent by March. Unfortunately, the draught managed to wipe out some of the Juniper range before it finally ended. For those not familiar with desert Juniper, let’s just say these trees are about the hardiest trees on Earth and will grow were no others will.

Concerning the crop failures and coming food shortages, I have not been able to find time to wade through the inventory of reports I have. I don’t think I will get to them. Suffice it to say that the ag industry is reeling worldwide, which has added considerable depth to the recession. If you combine this with the collapse of tourism and the airline industry which 911 created, you have a pretty good explanation for the depth and duration of the recession. AS PREDICTED HERE LAST JUNE.

Remember, you can expect that shortages will appear as the inventories disappear this winter. Australia is obviously in bad straits from a brutal summer (right now) and it is likely that their agriculture will show massive failure for the second year in a row. Famine conditions will most likely worsen in some portions of Asia and Africa and I still expect a nasty shoe or two to drop related to this.

IF WE ARE LUCKY, famine news will displace the bogus war news with which some portions of the American Broadcast Media are trying to program the American Mass Mind.

THE GOOD NEWS, AT THIS MOMENT, IT APPEARS that there is a good possibility that the Solar Cycle 23 Peak WILL decline rapidly enough to avoid continuation of the draught period beyond the next couple of months. If so, agriculture should be able to begin to rebound this year.

GEO-POLITICAL WATCH
How the sunspots are likely to most effect human affairs during the weeks and months ahead?

SIGN OF THE TIMES: Ken Lay, just a good ole boy Texan, the Presiding Officer of the rape of California Consumers, otherwise known as Enron, is still scott free with his crooked billions. Guess what corporate jets were used to ferry the Bush campaign officials and lawyers around during the recounting of the ballots in Florida and the petitioning of the courts to stop the recounts? Enron’s.

The polarizing ways of the Bush Administration are still provoking a continuing cascade of reactions around the world. It began really, with the Axis of Evil speech, which in great dramatic over-statement so typical of extremists, branded Iraq, Iran, and North Korea as an evil axis with which the U.S. would have to deal militantly. The Iranians, in their current style of minimization, have said or done very little since then of interest to the American Media. But the North Koreans took Bush at his word. Fearing the worst, they reneged their treaties (which is a retained right of all Sovereign Nations, just as Bush did in calling the anti-ballistic missile treaty with Russia null and void) and have taken steps which make it appear that they are ramping up their nuclear energy program.

Is it a real crisis of danger being created by lunatics or the creation of a bargaining chip? Judge for yourself. North Korea’s announced price for abandoning their so-called nuclear program: a non-aggression pact with the U.S. which guarantees that the U.S. will not act militarily or covertly against them and will start using polite language in discussing issues with them.

With this simple ploy, the “evil” North Koreans have made the pronouncements of the U.S. Administration into an international joke and have led a majority of South Koreans to believe that George Bush is a graver threat to peace than North Korea. Even with no hope of support from South Korea, the right wingnuts in the Bush Administration are still accusing North Korea as an evil force which has manufactured the current crisis. But the simple fact is that much of the world knows better, knows that the Korean Crisis is a bad case of a self-inflicted U.S. diplomatic defeat, pretty much equivalent to stepping in doodoo and then sticking your foot in mouth. I believe that much of the world hopes like I do that Condeleeza Rice finds academic never-never land more attractive, SOON. Solipsistic arguments, unlike the real world, still fly there.

And so it goes with Iraq. Despite the clear intent of some portions of the U.S. Mass Broadcast Media to whip up as much war fever as possible, it has become quite obvious that Bush and Company DO NOT HAVE ANY PROOF OF THEIR CHARGES AND HAVE NOT A CLUE WHERE TO FIND IT. Instead they continue to bellicosely talk about facts and old war programs in Iraq that are 15 to 12 years old for the most part. The trap which I predicted last October that Saddam Hussein was setting for Bush has in fact been sprung quite effectively.

Notice how for the most part the Al Qaeda network has remained more or less at low levels of activity waiting for this drama to play itself out. As nearly everyone in the Mideast is telling anyone who will listen, any war moves at this time against Saddam Hussein, based on the bellicose hype and non-evidence which is prevalent at this time, will feed directly into the hands of the fundamentalists and provoke an even greater Pan-Islamic hostility against the U.S. in the Arab world. In other words, military moves against Saddam Hussein without any real proof of his possession of nasty weapons will sharply increase the appeal and the strength of Al Qaeda and largely reverse the few gains which have been made against it during the past year. Most Arabs will grant U.S. credibility at about 0 and see U.S. moves purely as economic imperialism, oil greed, cultural arrogance, etc.

Continuing in this direction will be one of the great strategic blunders of history and Empires can and do fall for making such stupid blunders, especially in situations which are highly politically polarized. For this reason, the pro-west, conservative Arab leaders in Egypt, Saudi Arabia, and Turkey, the people who know Saddam and the Arab world the best, are dragging their heels against U.S. policies as hard as they can.

The only gambit which the right wingnuts will have left is to claim that the inspections have been cheated by Saddam’s evil genius. Maybe so, maybe not. But with no proof, is there anyone but madmen willing to bomb the crap out of the Iraqi people, who by all accounts are the main victims of all of this, simply to kill a despised tyrant whose main provable threat to the U.S. appears to be his ability to keep flipping it the bird?

America’s me-first-generation right-wingnuts are mad enough to try. But ALL THE WORLD’S PLAYERS, INCLUDING THE SAUDI’S, ARE TELLING THE U.S. THAT IT CANNOT TAKE ON IRAQ ALONE. Oh, well, there is Anthony Blair, the British Prime Minister who continues to talk like Bush. But his government is likely to be rocked by mass demonstrations while France, Germany, Russia, and China shake their heads in disbelief at American arrogance and stubbornly vote NO to U.S. demands at the U.N.

This is all unmistakably in the cards and ultimately it will be Bush’s undoing if he acts churlishly when he finally is forced to blink. It still has not occurred to the American Broadcast Mass Media that any unilateral U.S. action will be a grave violation of international law and provoke a terrible international controversy but it is definitely occurring to most other members of the U.N.

If Bush appears not to blink, he will face massive anti-war demonstrations throughout the world and in the U.S. while the military generals and their policy makers in the Pentagon think long and hard about how they can ditch the whole impasse which the right wing has created.

In the meanwhile Bush continues to renege on his solemn promises made early last Spring, to make the creation of Peace in Palestine his number two priority, with dispatching Al Qaeda and catching Osama Bin Laden his number one priority, and assisting the creation of a modern Afghanistan a close third priority. On all three, the Bush Administration has created a large portfolio of NO CREDIBILITY. There is no one discussing peace in Palestine, there is not even a plan in sight, the farmers of Afghanistan are back to growing poppies, Al Qaeda continues to give the U.S. the famous one finger salute while maintaining a regular schedule of pressure, and the debate in Europe now is over how long it will take for the collapse of the American Empire, this decade, or the next.

In scarcely one year, Bush’s legions have very nearly squandered 50 years of goodwill to American policies and this coming year may finish it.

One hates to admit and then one loathes to say it, but it is imperative that we wake up to the simple fact that the U.S. has not had such an incompetent idiot as President since the Republicans of the roaring ‘20’s nor as jingoistic a mass media as the yellow days of journalism which led the U.S. into its first step towards imperialism with the so-called sinking of the U.S. Maine off the coast of Cuba during the last years of the 19th century. It is not a matter of ideology, not of political principle. We have to wake up to the plain and simple fact of incompetence on the one hand, and incredible by amazingly true arrogant provincialism on the yellow pages of CNN, ABC, FOX, NBC, and CBS. The simple truth of the matter is that the peace of the world now hinges in Europe, not from the growing fascism in the U.S.

AS STATED LAST MONTH: In the short term of the next two or three years, the polarizations and strategies which have been let loose in the world will continue to exacerbate our conditions and make some of them actually yet still worse. And all of this of course will collide with the terrible environmental and economic damage which Solar Cycle 23 has created. The reckoning for this is yet to come.