Earth Changes Bulletin Update As Of January 15 2003
You have heard of the Weather Report? Here exclusively is this week’s "Earth Report" - a short review of the “big picture” about how the dynamic changes in the Sun and the Earth are effecting our lives more and more intensely, with the latest prognostications and predictions for weathermen, farmers, investors, businessmen, and every man

AS PREDICATED LAST MONTH: The geophysical vortex is indeed continuing to batter us with high peaks of sunspots, storms, and chaotic weather patterns. But, except for East Africa, the news in this dimension is relatively benign in most areas of the world.
The late appearing El Nino is breaking up even more rapidly at the moment and most likely will be gone by mid-February, the sunspot counts above 100 in Solar Cycle 23 should disappear by March, and this will allow the drought patterns to disappear and weather patterns to return to normal for at least a few months.

Our main problem for the early part of the year is geopolitical and here the picture is highly unsettled and mostly bleak for the next several months. The world consensus which prevailed for the greater part of 2002 is gone, international reactions against American directions are beginning to stiffen radically and abruptly while U.S. domestic consensus is foundering in confusion in the midst of a long continuing depressive wave in economic affairs. Time in all ways is now working rapidly against the Bush administration and the outcome of all affairs is blowing in the wind, to where, no one knows not. If we can get past February, as the sunspot counts fall off rapidly, without an emotionally-precipitated war in the Middle East or elsewhere, we have decent prospects of avoiding war altogether. Now is the best of times to pray as copiously as the stars in the heavens. Pray for emotions to calm and reason to prevail.
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Program Thesis: What are we trying to do with the Earth Changes Bulletin?

Most news media do not handle technical and scientific subjects like geology and earth sciences very well. They don't understand the causes and effects of activities in the Sun and Earth. Accordingly, they often do not understand if, when, how, why to report earthquakes, volcanic activity, global warming effects The treatment often sounds absent-minded, poorly qualified, and frequently contains various technical errors. Seldom is the treatment entertaining and genuinely educational.

Based on new scientific principles which have emerged during the past thirty years, many of the dynamic activities of the Sun and Earth can be linked together to see how a range of effects are linked together. This makes it possible to paint "the big picture" into a perspective which explains many diverse events and processes, especially climate and weather patterns such as global warming and El Nino. From the "big picture", long range predictions can be made for weeks and even months ahead.

The result is sophisticated cutting-edge information which is objective, balanced, astute, relevant, and can be easily seen and appreciated by lay audiences. The perspective is generally global, seldom parochial.
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POLAR MOTION
What is happening to the motion of the Earth.

AS REPORTED LAST SEVERAL WEEKS: Steady as she goes. As reported for the past few months, the current track of Chandler’s Wobble (the observed locations of the spin axis at the North Pole) continues to show an acceleration in the shifting of the average location of the spin axis. The recent acceleration may be in the approximate range of 6.5%. FOR A DESCRIPTION OF THIS DISPLACEMENT, SEE THE EARTH CHANGES BULLETIN OF NOVEMBER 13, 2002.

SUNSPOTS
The events in the solar atmosphere which impact weather and climate patterns, the magnetic field and auroras, including forecasts for the week, month, and year ahead.

ANOTHER BIG WHOOOOOOAAAAAAAAA on the rollercoaster ride but this one is a modest downward descent in the sunspot numbers (SESC WOA counts by NASA/NOAA) from a high on January 11th of 240 down to 175. The overall Solar Flux Index, which measures the flare strength of the Sun, is now again at about 165, about the same as reported last week

AS PREDICTED HERE AND ONLY HERE, this “wave” was brought on by the rapidly growing alignment of Mercury and Earth. This alignment is in a very close spiraling alignment with Jupiter, which, along with two Mercury alignments with Venus and Mars in quick succession during the last week of January (the 22nd and 29th) will no doubt hold the sunspots up fairly high, perhaps above 100 with some minor peaks and valleys, and then add a large spike in sunspots and the ionic punch to the Earth’s atmosphere at the end of this month (for the February 2 Earth | Jupiter alignment).

Though the Sun is still quite energetic, NASA shows, for today and probably for the next few days, a somewhat muted Sun. The flares are still large, but not quite so large, no coronal holes are aimed at the Earth, the sunspots are magnetically quite muted, and it does not seem that major storms are now imminent. Jan Alvestad reports “A coronal hole in the southern hemisphere could rotate into a geoeffective position on January 19-21”. (Geoeffective = aimed at the Earth). This of course will correspond to the alignment of Mercury with Venus, so be prepared for another big storm wave to form up on Earth during the last week of January.


At the moment the Fluxgate Monitor at the U of Alaska shows only two minor magnetic disturbances during the past 24 hours in the Earth’s Atmosphere and today’s Solar Wind Speed is a modest 416.4 km/s pushing a low density of 2.5 protons/cm. Aurora watching will be poor this coming seven days but should pick up by the 22nd. Exceptional magnetic disturbances should quickly appear for the February 2 Earth | Jupiter alignment.

AS PREDICTED LAST WEEK: Due to these alignments of the planets during the next three weeks, a high level of activity will provide a strong stable platform of energy to feed more major storms on the Sun which will feed ions into the Earth’s atmosphere. These influxes should feed several bouts of extreme weather patterns coming in off the oceans in one wave after another separated by a few days.

Expect the current dip in sunspots and solar activity to climb modestly during the next several days as the quick moving Mercury moves into alignment with Venus on January 22 and then with Mars on February 4. This close double whammy alignment created by Mercury is at a tight angle and accordingly the two alignments will act to some extent an extended single alignment which provides a plateau of high counts for well over a week. The sunspot counts should be quite high but since this alignment is at nearly 45 degrees to the Earth, Mercury, Venus, and Mars should begin to pull the expression of solar activity AWAY from the Earth, providing a period which lowers the actual chaos in Earth’s weather chaos.

Since the effects on the Earth’s weather take a good week or so to fully develop, expect a new surge of terrific storms coming off both the Pacific into North America and the Atlantic into Europe by the middle of next week to continue for several days at least to about January 22, then activity should abate for a few days. By the end of January new storm fronts should roll in every few days until mid February. No early Spring this year.

AS PREDICTED LAST WEEK: By the beginning of February, Mercury’s alignments will be over with Earth and Venus but Earth will be moving into alignment with Jupiter on February 2. Since the Earth|Saturn alignment in December was so potent, I expect this alignment could be even more so. Accordingly expect another major surge in sunspot counts and solar storms to begin during the last few days of January and to persist for a couple of weeks during this long lasting alignment. As with the weather with attitude which appeared in December, expect another huge surge of storms with exceptional attitude by about February 5 or so to last a good two weeks. Western shores of North America and Europe most likely will be slammed repeatedly.

AS PREDICTED LAST WEEK: Continue to expect anything with this Solar Cycle 23, but, despite the current escalations in counts which are created by January’s dense round of planetary alignments, I think that the peak is nearly done. By mid February I expect sunspot counts to stay permanently in the under 80 range and slowly fade away throughout the remainder of the year.

EXCEPT I FORGOT THE EARTH | MARS ALIGNMENT DURING AUGUST. This will be a close fly by and one should definitely expect a major new surge in sunspot activity during this alignment. Accordingly, I predict at this time that late Spring and early Summer will seem more like normal than the extremes of the past four years (but not completely), BUT, during August the drought/flood weather phenomenon of the summer of 2002 will return. The Southwest will be as dry as bone during what should be one of its wettest months, and the northerly latitudes will be wetter than normal.

ALL OF THIS WILL BE LAID OUT IN DETAIL IN THE CALENDAR FOR 2003 WHICH IS CURRENTLY UNDER CONSTRUCTION.

To follow these numbers, view the Solar Cycle 23 Chart at

http://www.michaelmandeville.com/earthmonitor/topten_monitor.htm

SOLAR VORTEX CALENDAR FOR 2003-2006 – still working on it

A complete calendar of planetary alignments and other key dates and relationships is being constructed as you read this and will be made available within a few days to all subscribers who have made an annual donation. In the calendar will be keys for watching the weather and seismic windows as well as how to move stock during the next three years, both for Bear and Bull Markets. I expect one more bull market during these last days of the Fourth World. I will provide the best timing signals to those who have made this work possible.

GLOBAL DROUGHT AND FLOOD WATCH
Stories and assessments about drought and flood conditions around the world; global information which provides the ability to assess the impacts to agriculture and the natural environment.

AS PREDICTED LAST WEEK: The current pattern of recurring huge storm fronts and extensive precipitation is likely to continue well into February and then begin to dissipate. Storm fronts will tend to be the most severe four to seven days after the major inner planet alignments discussed above. Anything could happen to the weather this Winter but at the current time the odds seemed stacked to chaos and many extremes which will emerge in the weather suddenly after a major solar flare or appearance of a new coronal hole. The storm fronts against North America will NOT be a repeat of December’s activity against California. The distribution of the energy will change. The El Nino conditions are breaking up rapidly and thus the circulation patterns are shifting rapidly. Already major portions of the Southwest has gotten a good soaking the past few days.

EL NINO WATCH: The good news continues. AS PREDICTED HERE AND NO WHERE ELSE, the El Nino syndrome along the equator continues in rapid decline. The upsurge in warm water (above average in the range of 8 degrees F.) along a very wide expanse of the Equator in the Pacific ended in early November and now is only a small of fraction of what it was at its peak. Levels are now at about what they were in July. It is likely the ocean temperature will continue to decline rapidly and that the El Nino Weather Syndrome will short out. By March, they might start talking about a sudden return of La Nina! The climatologists scooped me out on successfully predicting a “mild” El Nino but here I am recovering by scooping them out on its rapid ending.

CHEMTRAILS
I am still looking for a volunteer to write a weekly update paragraph on Chemtrail activity and politics. Activists groups are beginning to emerge calling for world wide citizen action this year to expose the activity and out the Dr. Strangelove’s who are doing this. A most excellent idea. I believe that each and every individual who is involved in the activity should become publicly known and exposed to crimes against humanity lawsuits. One good aspect about the Bush administration’s polarizing ways, people are getting angry all over the place in increasing numbers on a broad front of issues connected with lying and manipulation by the Empire. If there is anyone who would like to volunteer to send me a paragraph update once a week on this front for inclusion in this newsletter, I am all for it. I don’t have time to canvass any more than what I am doing.

EARTHQUAKES
Around the world to see the current and potential patterns of seismic activity, with coverage of the windows of danger.

As we enter into the Full Moon Syzygy Window tomorrow, we will have a great chance to view the influence of Perihelion (Earth’s closest approach to the Sun) during a full lunar opposition (Full Moon, it is opposite the Sun on the side of the Earth which faces away from the Sun). The pulling and stretching forces opposing each other on opposite sides of the Earth’s crust will be at nearly the maximum they can be. This stretching activity may force an upsurge in seismic activity as well as increased volcanism.

In general, at the moment, seismic activity remains muted at levels which are typical of non-syzygy window periods. Most quake activity is widely scattered, muted in frequency and magnitude, with no clear patterns. Perhaps more activity than normal seems present in California, the Baja, and the Puget Sound Basin, but otherwise activity seems random.

The USGS chart (such charts show all quakes 1.0 and above) for the U.S. and Alaska show 557 quakes for the past seven days (which is up from last week) with the USGS chart for California showing 332 of these in California during the past seven days (a little higher than normal for a non syzygy window) and the USGS Chart for the Pacific Northwest reveals a muted activity with only 22 micro quakes (two week sum, about the same as last week) widely scattered through Western Washington around the Puget Sound Basin.

The USGS chart for Long Valley Cauldera (Area) shows 12 small quakes for the past week, typically in the range of 1.0 in magnitude, while the USGS Chart of Yellowstone Cauldera Area shows 8 small quakes during the last week. This level of activity remains in the deadenly boring range of interest but there were more microquakes than in previous weeks in Utah.

If any areas seem pinpointed by quake activity this past week, it is California, the mouth of the Colorado, the Puget Sound Basin, and India along the Himalayas.

EXCEPTIONAL HEADS-UP

January (the Earth’s Perihelion month) is always a dangerous month for destructive Earthquakes in the Pacific area, most especially the Western Pacific, especially in Japan, the Philippines, China. I believe this is due to the uplifting pressure of Antarctica (the Sun pulls Antarctica up to its most northerly position during January) against the Pacific and Asian tectonic plates.

Based on Berkland’s website reports, there may yet be in store a large 7.0 quake on North America during the next few days through to the 22nd of January.

VOLCANOES
Around the world with the most interesting and relevant volcano stories; briefs on the likely eruptions as well as coverage of on-going activity.

Hood remains completely quiescent but El Popo gave us another 30 puff day like last week. Centrapred reports for January 15th (16:00 GMT) that “In the last 24 hours there were 30 small to moderate exhalations accompanied by steam, gas and in some times small amounts of ash. The other monitored parameters remain without important changes.”

El Popo suggests worldwide volcanic activity is at least the same as last week while the downsurge in seismic activity in the Yellowstone and Long Valley Caulderas suggest a decrease in volcanic activity. What are the facts?

The Southwest Volcano Centre reports 38 volcanoes on the alert status list (up four from last week), 5 volcanoes on the restless list (down two from last week), and 23 on the active eruption list (up four from last week) with 8 activity change updates posted for the latter during the last few days Some spectacular lava flow pictures have been posted for Kilauea and Stromboli, to find them just page down on http://www.swvrc.org/cerupt.htm

It would seem that activity overall is clearly up. As we can see then, Popo remains a better harbinger than Long Valley or Yellowstone.

AG INDUSTRY WATCH
Because of the high load of stress which the current peak in the sunspots have placed on the Ag industry, we alert on the changing scene in agriculture and how these are likely to effect the broader economy.

AS PREDICTED LAST WEEK: I believe that the draught is now ending and that this ending will be apparent by March.

BUT, drought conditions are likely to return in August during the Mars | Earth alignment and persist for perhaps several weeks, perhaps late into September.

AS REPORTED LAST WEEK: Concerning the crop failures and coming food shortages, I have not been able to find time to wade through the inventory of reports I have. I don’t think I will get to them. Suffice it to say that the ag industry is reeling worldwide, which has added considerable depth to the recession. If you combine this with the collapse of tourism and the airline industry which 911 created, you have a pretty good explanation for the depth and duration of the recession. AS PREDICTED HERE LAST JUNE.

Recent announcements by major retailers and other large corporations leads me to believe that the depression wave may be still underway. Apparently the economy has not yet found bottom. If so, expect economic conditions to persist as they are until summer while the divided U.S. government wrangles over how to stimulate the economy. Stock markets will churn up and down, just like the sunspot counts, while institutions try to find the basis of a new platform for growing the next bull market. I doubt very much there is anything in the cards for that until at least another six months.

We probably will not be lucky at all this next few months. I was hoping that the famine news from the flooding in East Africa would begin to displace some of the war drumming, but it does not appear to be forthcoming. Several hundred thousand people are in dire straits there at the moment, and there is almost no media interest in it.

AS REPORTED LAST WEEK, THE GOOD NEWS, AT THIS MOMENT, IT APPEARS that there is a good possibility that the Solar Cycle 23 Peak WILL decline rapidly enough to avoid continuation of the draught period beyond the next couple of months. If so, agriculture should be able to begin to rebound this year.

GEO-POLITICAL WATCH
How the sunspots are likely to most effect human affairs during the weeks and months ahead?

I am getting more emails about the geo-political analysis I am serving up, from which some people conclude I am a flaming liberal. Some people think that dealing with politics with divergent views is beneath themselves and suggest that I am devolving into the gutter of American politics.

My policy is not to get involved with elections, candidacies and most questions which arise in domestic politics. I will never support a particular candidate. But factors which are having a profound impact on the Earth and humanity as a complete system, that is my purview here and I will deal at that level with politics. I am a system scientist and I am diligently attempting to deal with the mutual reactivity of all systems, including human emotions and social systems, as I try to see how the reactivity creates new outcomes. To deal with human mutual reactivity, you have to go beyond the maya of ego boundaries, political philosophies, and national identities to look at things from a greater perspective.

As far as my political orientation goes, the people who see me as a leftist just don’t get it What they really are telling me is that they are right wing or authoritarian in their orientation. They appear to feel real defensive about my needling and rejection of the actions of the right wing cabal which has taken over major portions of the U.S. government.

Let me clarify my position forthrightly. To make points to bring you out of the maya of traditional thinking, I am going to use unconventional rhetoric. I am a Sitting Bull Conservative. I think the majority of people who scurry around in ridiculously inappropriate vehicles in the urban complexes of North America burning massive quantities of petroleum products are a bunch of savage idiots who are so totally corrupted in “Crazy White Man Culture” that they have no relationship left to God, family, self, community, or the Earth by which they can build meaningful lives based on the eternal spiritual values of love, respect, decency, honesty, kindness to all things, and the inner serenity by which alone Beauty and caring about each other is the entire point of everything.

The only people who talk more ignorantly than the left wing, which sometimes appears to feel guilty about living in crazy white man culture, is the right wing, which extols living in crazy white man culture and appears to believe that the solution to everything is another competitive football game. Most of these ignorant savages need to get a life by listening to the wisdom of the ages, hearing shamans talk about how to listen to the Earth and get along by sharing the Earth.

Shamans talk about how to listen to the entire Earth and I try. That is why I do this stuff here. I listen. I look. I see. I see the Earth move, I see the Sun breathe, I see these things happen in a vast slow motion dance. The more I look and listen, the better I have gotten at this. We are doing real science stuff here way in advance of the scientists who are bound up in crazy white man culture. We get real results.

I PREDICTED EXACTLY WHAT THIS SITUATION NOW BEFORE THE WORLD WOULD BE LIKE LAST JUNE IF BUSH AND COMPANY WENT DOWN THE ROAD TOWARDS IRAQ. Total confusion with increasing polarization and fractionalization. Do you know that Europeans are now organizing groups to help awaken Americans from the maya of violent projections which American institutions are spewing out all over the world? Letter campaigns are underway and people with websites like mine are being solicited. They are asking, what can we do to help Americans deal with their internal “problem”. Man, what a twist!!! My response to them is that they need to teach Americans how to create a new system of politics. The crazy white man system we got is about as worthless as dog doodoo

THERE IS ABSOLUTELY NO RIGHT OR LEFT WING POLITICS ABOUT WHETHER OR NOT YOU ARE GOING TO POISON YOURSELF TO DEATH BY POISONING THE EARTH, OR FIX A THEORETICAL TERRORISM THREAT BY BLOWING UP A CITY WHICH FIVE MILLION PEOPLE LIVE IN . Those who make right or left political positions out of these things, who make party politics of it, democrat or republican, are lunatics and need to be put in insane asylums. LITERALLY.

So, this Sitting Bull conservative says, Ugh! Crazy White Man needs swift kick in the ass before plenty more people die because of politicians who just can NOT see the effects of what they are doing.

SIGN OF THE TIMES: Ken Lay, just a good ole boy Texan, the Presiding Officer of the rape of California Consumers, otherwise known as Enron, is still scott free with his crooked billions. Guess what corporate jets were used to ferry the Bush campaign officials and lawyers around during the recounting of the ballots in Florida and the petitioning of the courts to stop the recounts? Enron’s.

Meanwhile, some portions of the American Broadcast Media are relentless trying to program the American Mass Mind into the idea that war with Iraq is inevitable. An endless parade of no-name, no-credentials, instant talking head experts continue to flow through the Broadcast News programs using emotion-manipulating terms and arguments to lead people to suppose that our big brother President, our TA DA, “WAR TIME” President knows why the U.S. has to disarm Iraq and must therefore lead us to war to prevent war.

The hype begins with the endless repetition of the mantra, “WAR TIME” President. Nobody has declared war. There is no war underway. The military actions against Al Qaeda are long over, case you hadn’t noticed. The various FBI and police actions underway in various places from time to time hardly constitute a war by any stretch of its meaning.

If you have never read 1984, now is the time. All the strategies and techniques of Hitler’s and Goebbels agitprop and disinformation technology is currently being employed everyday in massive doses against you. You had best wake up to how the mantras work.

Fortunately, the fakery and posing of some portions of U.S. Broadcast News on politics and foreign affairs is itself now beginning to provoke a massive counter reaction in the minds of both Americans and the world at large. ABC finally admitted today that the Bush administration has failed to sell the war with Iraq and that most of the world was opposed to it.

It is also apparent that the Bush administration is now attempting to correct its Axis Of Evil Error, as discussed last week, by back pedaling from North Korea as rapidly as possible. During the last six days I have heard several contradictory statements made by officials about what is happening in Korea and it is apparent that the Administration is going to try to recover its credibility by allowing China, Japan, and South Korea take the lead in conducting the negotiations which the Americans insist they will not allow themselves to be blackmailed into conducting.

It is a good solution. It is time, after all, for these Asian Nations to get on with each other and make their own neighborhood safe. The North Koreans are easily bought at this time in history. I suspect China will make it worth their while and we may see, on the heels of the American fiasco, the first rise of Asian leadership, which will be a major historical milestone.

With North Korea slipping out of the Axis of Evil noose, the spotlight turns once again to Iraq. The crux is this. In the end, the stated position of Bush and Blair is that they know something which impels them to get rid of Saddam Hussein unless he fesses up and destroys something. Is this the truth or is this just a ploy, as much of the world thinks? Is it just bluff and blunder?

Bush and Blair appear not to want to tell us, they prefer to reduce their citizenry to the status of ignorant dependents on this issue, forcing the issue rather aggressively that we must trust them. That is an awfully awkward pill to swallow given the strong perception of “no credibility” which their actions have generated this past six months.

The reports which Blair has made available to his government have been widely denounced in Britain as being vacuous over-statements. And, AS PREVIOUSLY REPORTED, Bush continues to renege on his solemn promises made early last Spring, to make the creation of Peace in Palestine his number two priority, with dispatching Al Qaeda and catching Osama Bin Laden his number one priority, and assisting the creation of a modern Afghanistan a close third priority. On all three, the Bush Administration has created a large portfolio of NO CREDIBILITY. There is no one discussing peace in Palestine, there is not even a plan in sight, the farmers of Afghanistan are back to growing poppies, Al Qaeda continues to give the U.S. the famous one finger salute while maintaining a regular schedule of pressure, and the debate in Europe now is over how long it will take for the collapse of the American Empire, this decade, or the next.

So the crux boils down to Blair’s and Bush’s credibility for which there is now very little evidence in play. No citizenry of a sovereign and democratic nation should ever under any circumstances of normal history, be forced into such a disrespected and disvalued, dependent position and forced militantly to make such an indecent choice.

If it goes down like that, you will know just exactly what your true position is in this political system. Fascism has won out, it will be 1936, Springtime For Imperialism.

There is one possible way out of this. Ultimately Bush must show “it” to the leaders of France, Russia, China, and Germany, the other major mainstays of the U.N. Security Council . If they are impressed by “it”, they will vote to authorize a U.N. mission against Saddam. If they think “it” is not good enough, they won’t, “it” is that simple

At this point everyone should know what to do. Obey the international law against aggression and go along decently with the opinion of humanity.

Any other response will generate a growing wave of reaction against it and such polarization could ignite a period of profound historical chaos which produces a generation or more of religious wars. It is that simple

AS STATED PREVIOUSLY: In the short term of the next two or three years, the polarizations and strategies which have been let loose in the world will continue to exacerbate our conditions and make some of them actually yet still worse. And all of this of course will collide with the terrible environmental and economic damage which Solar Cycle 23 has created. The reckoning for this is yet to come.