Earth Changes Bulletin Update As Of February 5 2003

GREAT GOOD NEWS for the geophysical vortex, the news has suddenly turned to the better. SOLAR CYCLE 23 IS BREAKING UP RAPIDLY and sunspot counts for the recent alignments at the first of February are much lower than expected. Accordingly, the ionic solar flux should diminish rapidly during February. Hopefully this will gradually return us to nearly normal weather patterns in March.

For the geopolitical front….THE DICE ARE NOT PLAYING OUT FOR THE IMPERIAL PARTY, though they are caught up in their hubris and are unable to see the inevitable outcomes. Hope grows ever more stronger that an unwise war will be avoided by enough people waking up to the realities of what is at stake. Powell’s revelations will matter not at all in the choices ahead. France, Russia, and Germany appear to beginning NOW to move into leadership on the issue of dealing with Iraq. They are spinning Powell’s proofs of Iraqi evasions into an argument for more intrusive inspections and air surveillance. The major European powers continue to eschew the need for war and are unlikely to change their opinion, virtually guaranteeing that NATO will not be involved in unilateral American Imperial adventures. In the end, an open rupture may occur in NATO if Americans are so foolish to jackboot into Iraq with the Imperial Party, and this rupture of course will be FAR more consequential to the world than removing Hussein from power. But it is more likely that a WORLD SOLUTION, not to the liking of Rumsfield, Cheney, and the Imperial Party, may be imposed by European leadership of the issues. Yet, still, our fate still hangs on the precipice of fundamental choices as we stare bleakly into the unknown abyss of the next few weeks. The choices of the next few weeks may bring the easy restoration of harmony with Hussein contained in his cage for the foreseeable future, or chaos may erupt and fragment all peoples and nations in the first stage of the beginning of the end of “America The Dominant”. Let us hope that Bush can find himself happy to follow the lead of Feinstein and France to stand on unified ground.

KEEP PRAYING AS COPIOUSLY AS THE STARS IN THE HEAVENS. If the U.S. marches like the Lone Ranger into Iraq without solid U.N. backing, it will end up as tragedy far worse then Vietnam. I suspect it is exactly what Osama Bin Laden, the real enemy, is waiting for, a chance to split the Western world right down the middle.
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POLAR MOTION
What is happening to the motion of the Earth.

AS REPORTED LAST SEVERAL WEEKS: Steady as she goes. As reported for the past few months, the current track of Chandler’s Wobble (the observed locations of the spin axis at the North Pole) continues to show an acceleration in the shifting of the average location of the spin axis. The recent acceleration may be in the approximate range of 6.5%. FOR A DESCRIPTION OF THIS DISPLACEMENT, SEE THE EARTH CHANGES BULLETIN OF NOVEMBER 13, 2002.

For additional current details: see http://www.michaelmandeville.com/ebooks/calendar2003/currentconditions.htm#polarmotion

FOR NEWBIES: The vortex tectonics paradigm of the earth holds that polar motion in the 6.5 year wobble cycle (Chandler’s) creates the major stress in the Earth’s crust which is released by lunar tidal forces each month in the form of earthquakes and volcanism. The acceleration in the motion of the drift of the poles and its relocation forces an increasing tempo in the shape shifting of the Equatorial zone, where 70% of tectonic activity occurs. Accordingly, earthquakes and volcanic activity should increase in frequency and magnitude.

PLANETS

The Moon this day is centered near dead over the Equator only two days from Apogee (its furthest distance from the Earth during its 28 day orbit) and we are now five days from the New Moon Syzygy on Feb 1. Seismic activity should be low and diminishing for the next week.

We have just passed a double set of alignments between February 1-4, comprising a Jupiter | Earth alignment about the Feb 1 and a Mercury | Mars alignment on Feb 4. Mercury is already rapidly speeding past the Mars alignment.

The next alignment will be on February 24 between Venus | Mars.

Expect solar weather and sunspots now to remain low through to about February 20, diminishing even lower that it is at present for the next 14 days.

Venus is so bright that you can see it now and for another month or so in broad daylight well after dawn. Venus is steadily moving away from the Earth so it will gradually fade until it can only be seen before dawn. To find it just look to the East. You cannot miss it but because it is so bright you might mistake it for a UFO or an airliner with landing lights on.

See Earth Changes 2003 Almanac Calendar for additional details
http://www.michaelmandeville.com/ebooks/calendar2003/
The Almanac lays out the entire year in advance to allow you to find the best and worst periods of weather.

SUNSPOTS
The events in the solar atmosphere which impact weather and climate patterns, the magnetic field and auroras, including forecasts for the week, month, and year ahead.

SUPERBLY GREAT NEWS

The big rollercoaster rides are nearly over and Sunspot Cycle 23 in the Cosmic Amusement Park is gliding slowly towards the exit. There may be a few dips left, but these will not be near to comparison to last year’s ride.

On 1/11 the high was 246 for Mercury | Earth on 1/11. On 1/13 the plunging numbers plateaued for a couple of days at 175 for Mercury | Jupiter on 1/13. On 1/20 the high was 185 for Mercury | Venus on 1/22. On 1/29 the high was 175 for Earth | Jupiter on 2/1. On 2/3 the high was only 77, only a very small rise for Mercury | Mars on 2/4. For all of these peaks or brief plateaus, the increase in numbers lasted only a day or two and appeared one to three days just prior to the alignment.

These numbers are now written into the Earth Changes 2003 Almanac Calendar.

The last two alignments were nearly at 90 degree to each other and just four days apart, did that angle cancel out the influences so that sunspots failed to rise? Or is Sunspot Cycle 23 collapsing from old age? Since each peak is showing a progressive downward trend, presumably it is Cycle 23 merely winding down. Apparently so little accumulated energy charge is left now for sunspots that even a close clustering of planets is not sufficient to ramp up the numbers.

AND THAT ALLOWS US TO BREATH A GREAT SIGH OF RELIEF. THE WORST FROM THIS PAST 40 MONTHS IS NOW REALLY OVER. (But I am still knocking on wood for a while.)

This is a much more rapid decline than I projected. Last year made me so pessimistic it looked like this period would never end. Accordingly, I must soften the predictions in the Calendar and those will be posted by today or tomorrow.

The chaotic weather zones which are shown for the alignments remain valid, but they simply will not have the impact of the past 40 months during similar alignments.

However, the planetary alignments in mid August, the Mars | Earth alignment in late August, and the flyby of this alignment by Mercury on September 10 will probably bring a succession of curtain calls. Even when the average monthly sunspot count is below 50 during a quiescent phase of the Sunspot Cycles, planetary alignments sometimes send daily counts up into the range of 200. This is sure to happen in August and September of this year. This peaks will cut of the normal summer monsoon pattern for those areas which are in dire need of a wet summer.

At the moment the Fluxgate Monitor at the U of Alaska shows modest magnetic disturbances during the past 24 hours in the Earth’s Atmosphere. Today’s Solar Wind Speed is a modest 555.0 km/s pushing a low density of 2.3 protons/cm. NASA reports that Earth entered into a coronal hole in the Sun’s atmosphere on Feb 4 (aligned no doubt with the Mercury | Mars) and this will expose the earth to magnetic storms and a continuation of ionic chaos. This will probably decay rapidly.

And, sorry but glad to say, expect Aurora watching to be pretty boring this month as Solar Cycle 23 decays rapidly

WE PREDICTED THAT February would be one long terrible winter month with lots of snow in lots of places which rarely get it, terrible damage to the eco-systems of Australia, Southern Africa, and India, and for the drought areas of the Western Hemisphere to stay quite dry.

The sudden collapse of Solar Cycle 23 allows us to hope for a more normal February, beginning about the 15th and lasting to the beginning of March. The Venus | Mars alignment may bring back some weather extremes and chaos during the first week of March.

Unfortunately for the American Southwest, the winter rain has already been lost and current patterns in the atmosphere are not likely to support much rain for the next week. Since it seldom rains in Arizona after the middle of February, the drought will likely continue on through to July. West Coast weathermen are still vainly hoping the “mythical” El Nino will bring them rain. Little do they know.

AS PREDICTED PREVIOUSLY: Continue to expect anything with this Solar Cycle 23, but, despite the current escalations in sunspot counts, I think that the peak is nearly done. By mid February I expect sunspot counts to stay in the under 80 range most of the time, except for the Earth | Mars alignment in August and September, and slowly fade away throughout the remainder of the year. Peaks above 100 will occur during each of the planetary alignments and they may well soar very high once again during August and September.

To follow these numbers, view the Solar Cycle 23 Chart at

http://www.michaelmandeville.com/earthmonitor/topten_monitor.htm

THE SPACE SHUTTLE DISASTER

Did Solar Cycle 23 claim the Columbia? It may have. The disaster may have been one of history’s examples of very bad of timing. With the exceptionally unstable conditions in the Earth’s atmosphere, plus a series of flares, eruptions, and magnetic disturbances on January 31 and February 1, which of course corresponded precisely with the Earth | Jupiter alignment, the Columbia’s computers and structure may have been overwhelmed by a set of freak transients, both electromagnetically and physically, which the past two years have been belting out with exceptional levels of extremity.

Unknown to most people, the Earth’s atmosphere is not at all static in depth. When the solar flux comes in with sudden spurts, the atmosphere expands substantially due to electrostatic tension. This sudden change in the static tension of course is what translates into nearly instantaneous shifts in the weather, wind circulation, and in the auroras which appear. On Saturday, the solar wind at one point was recorded at 1000 km/s, WHICH WAS EXTRAORDINARILY HIGH. Typically it is below 500 and only very rarely approaches numbers like 800. A sudden spurt this high would have caused a near instantaneous and large-scale expansion of the Earth’s outer atmosphere from a huge increase in the electrostatic tension. The atmosphere’s size on February 1, plus electromagnetic disturbances flowing directly in from the Class M and C flares, may have caught the Shuttle’s computers by surprise and it may thus have “skipped” down way too fast and hard on the expanded atmosphere. This may have caused the Shuttle to lose control and begin to tumble….

There is some evidence which has been offered up as well that arcs of electrical discharge were seen colliding with the Columbia. This is easily explained as part of the normal super-charged phenomena which exists at the interface to space. A larger than normal transient discharge could have distorted or damage the computer’s command functions, causing an inappropriate response to the atmosphere.

Check out this story by Sabin Russell, Chronicle Staff Writer
Wednesday, February 5, 2003 about a S.F. man's astounding photo. A mysterious purple streak is shown hitting Columbia 7 minutes before it disintegrated.
http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?file=/c/a/2003/02/05/MN192153.DTL

I advise speculators to look there before thinking about dastardly deeds by those who have Tesla Howitzers or other forms of scalar technology. All in all, I think it is most likely that the disaster was a case of real bad timing.

GLOBAL DROUGHT AND FLOOD WATCH
Stories and assessments about drought and flood conditions around the world; global information which provides the ability to assess the impacts to agriculture and the natural environment.

STANDING PREDICTION: The current pattern of recurring huge storm fronts and extensive precipitation is likely to continue well into February and then begin to dissipate. The extreme patterns of the past 40 months will now dissipate rapidly, neither floods nor drought should be considered inevitable, except in arid zones which have already missed their brief window of winter rain.

CONFIRMED PREDICTION: The storm fronts against North America will NOT be a repeat of December’s activity against California. The distribution of the energy will change. The El Nino conditions are already gone and thus the circulation patterns are now different.

AS PREVIOUSLY PREDICTED (REVISED): Drought prone areas in the lower latitudes will see less rain than normal. Summer monsoons may be late and will be ended sooner than normal by the planetary alignments which begin in mid-August, most especially by the Mars | Earth alignment at the end of August.

For additional details, see
http://www.michaelmandeville.com/ebooks/calendar2003

EL NINO WATCH: THE GOOD NEWS CONTINUES!!!

AS PREDICTED HERE AND NO WHERE ELSE, the El Nino syndrome along the equator is almost gone. The upsurge in warm water (above average in the range of 8 degrees F.) along a very wide expanse of the Equator in the Pacific peaked in early November and now is only a small of fraction of what it was. As of 20 days ago, the El Nino “patch” on the Equator is about the size of the Island of Borneo and is centered at Longitude West 170. During the last three weeks, the warm water patch declined slightly more size in size and in overall temperature. The El Nino Weather Syndrome is probably irreversibly gone for this year.

The existing patch of warm water, which is between Longitudes West 170 and 180, appears to be causing the extreme bending which has been observed during the past
week in the jet stream. The jet stream appears to bend straight to the North a little above the equator just a little to the North of the warm water patch on the equator. The jet stream flows almost due North all the way to Northern Alaska and the Yukon Territory, were it begins to bend to the South over the land. It then flows straight down the Rocky Mountain Plateau just to the West of the Continental Divide, making Utah and Northern Arizona cold (we can feel it down here in Black Canyon City as well), where it eventually turns East to flow over Colorado and Northern New Mexico on its way to the Great Lakes.

By the time the air masses flow from the Yukon into the U.S., the air is dry, providing no rain nor snowpack hardly anywhere. Thus the Western U.S. is locked into drought rather than experiencing wet storms slamming against the Pacific Coast of California and the PNW (which is the typical El Nino pattern)

If this pattern is being driven by the Borneo Patch at Longitude West 170, it may take another month before this drought weather pattern breaks in the Western U.S., which is terrible news for those hoping for an end in that area to the weather extremes caused by Sunspot Cycle 23.

To view the latest water temperatures in the Pacific, go to the animated graph at NOAA’s weather center. It runs through the changing temperature of the surface of the ocean every two weeks for the past year. You can watch the late developing El Nino water (shown in red and orange) quickly break up and shrivel into the Borneo-sized patch.
http://www.cdc.noaa.gov/map/clim/sst_olr/sst_animated.gif

CHEMTRAILS
See http://www.deepspace4.com/pages/main/pagemain.htm

I am still looking for a volunteer to write a weekly update paragraph on Chemtrail activity and politics. Activists groups are beginning to emerge calling for world wide citizen action this year to expose the activity and out the Dr. Strangelove’s who are doing this. A most excellent idea. I believe that each and every individual who is involved in the activity should become publicly known and exposed to crimes against humanity lawsuits. One good aspect about the Bush administration’s polarizing ways, people are getting angry all over the place in increasing numbers on a broad front of issues connected with lying and manipulation by the Empire. If there is anyone who would like to volunteer to send me a paragraph update once a week on this front for inclusion in this newsletter, I am all for it. I don’t have time to canvass any more than what I am doing.

EARTHQUAKES
Around the world to see the current and potential patterns of seismic activity, with coverage of the windows of danger.

I prepared this section by pulling out the Earth Changes 2003 Calendar which has everything plotted on it. You should too. Check out the Almanac as well, it discusses all of the windows for the year and even spotlights the two most dangerous windows.

At the moment quake activity is diminished and will stay so until about the 12th of February. The next big quake danger zone will appear mid February in the Full Moon Syzygy which is very close to the Lunar Perigee. Perigee = the Moon’s closest approach to the Earth during its monthly orbit which increases gravitational influence of the Moon by as much as 15%).

AS PREDICTED: The last New Moon Syzygy yielded only modest levels of seismic energy. An examination of the USGS database of quakes greater than 3.0 in magnitude for the past week shows a muted period in both frequency and magnitudes. For the most part this energy was widely distributed through most of the major plate boundaries, especially Japan, Asia, North America, Himalayas, the Mid Atlantic Rift, and the Mediterranean. Only three major patterns appeared. Extending the activity from the prior week, the Mid-Atlantic Rift on the REYKJANES RIDGE was hit with at least five quakes above 3.0, the Nicobar Islands on the eastern edge of Thailand was similarly struck with several quakes, and of course a large swarm of earthquakes struck on the eastern side of San Francisco, near a small town of Dublin. For the most part these quakes around the world were in the 3.0 to 5.0 range.

AS OBSERVED LAST WEEK: As you an see, this pattern of an increase in activity at the edges of the polar zones continues…I expect more activity this year to set records for these zones. I will get into a more long winded explanation of why in a later update or report. As well, Longitude East 40, as you may know, is one of my key markers, it is the projected Line of Fall for the avalanche of the crust and so anything tectonic close to that line is of tremendous interest to me.

The USGS chart (such charts show all quakes 1.0 and above) for the U.S. and Alaska show 593 quakes for the past seven days (which is UP only 39 from last week’s 554) with the USGS chart for California showing 324 of these in California during the past seven days (up from last week’s 316), which is pretty muted for a syzygy window. The USGS Chart for the Pacific Northwest reveals 20 quakes (two week sum, down from 46 micro quakes last week) mostly widely scattered in the Puget Sound Basin.

Hood was completely silent but the USGS chart for Long Valley Cauldera (Area) shows a running total of 19 for the past week (up from 16 small quakes running total last week), typically in the range of 1.0 in magnitude, while the USGS Chart of Yellowstone Cauldera Area shows 66 small quakes during the last week (up radically from the 26 recorded during the prior week) and 31 quakes scattered throughout Utah (up from 20 during the prior week).

REMEMBER THE COSTA NOSTRA DAMUS PREDICTION: We will watch Coos Bay, San Andreas, Colima, Popo, very carefully. Let us watch as well for a pattern of increase during the succeeding Full Moon Perigee Syzygies. Centered near the middle of the month for February, March, April, and May, the Full Moon and Perigee draw tighter together to be virtually dead on in April, then start to draw apart. Their mutual influence should combine exponentially, not linearly. Along about the middle of April, we can expect the worst quake season which has been felt in many months. See the Earth Changes 2003 Almanac Calendar for timing details.

VOLCANOES
Around the world with the most interesting and relevant volcano stories; briefs on the likely eruptions as well as coverage of on-going activity.

Hood is sound asleep after a few weeks of slight seismic snoring and El Popo was yesterday down to a 13 puff day. Centrapred reports for February 4 (16:00 GMT) that “In the last 24 hours the monitoring system of the Popocatépetl volcano detected 13 small to moderate exhalations accompanied by steam, gas and sometimes small amounts of ash. The most important exhalations occurred today, the first one at 02:36 h(local) accompanied by incandescent debris ejected at a short distance around the crater. The second one at 08:53 h (local) was accompanied by an ash column 2 km height. In addition there were episodes of low-amplitude harmonic tremor for less than three hours (see image). This morning the volcano appears with a small steam and gas emission toward the NE (see image). Due to the remains of the lava dome inside the crater (see image), , there still is a significant probability of further explosive activity, ash emissions, and incandescent ejections around the crater.”

The Southwest Volcano Centre reports 35 volcanoes on the alert status list (down one from last week), 4 volcanoes on the restless list (same as last week), and 24 on the active eruption list (same as last week) with 6 activity change updates posted for the latter during the last few days

It would seem that volcanic activity overall is about the same this week, perhaps down slightly.

Some geo-scientists were expecting Piton de la Fournaise in the Indian Ocean to repeat its typical winter eruption cycle by erupting this past month. These geo-scientists were predicting its eruption as part of an attempt to study the seasonal rhythms of volcanic activity. This no-show will disappoint their beautiful paradigm (which ties into the vortex tectonics theory, so I am wishing them success). But the Full Moon in mid-February still offers hope.

AG INDUSTRY WATCH
Because of the high load of stress which the current peak in the sunspots have placed on the Ag industry, we alert on the changing scene in agriculture and how these are likely to effect the broader economy.

AS PREDICTED LAST WEEK: I believe that the drought is now ending and that this ending will be apparent by March. BUT, drought conditions are likely to return in August during the Mars | Earth alignment and persist for perhaps several weeks, perhaps late into September. This will not provide crop relief for farmers in the Southern Hemisphere. The drought will not end for them until the growing season is over.

ECONOMIC WATCH

AS PREVIOUSLY PREDICTED: It is doubtful that any economic recovery will begin to be felt until much later in the year, probably not until Fall of 2003. Republicans talk about the recession as if it were over. Anybody who does is probably not mistaken, they are probably consciously lying.

The recent 400 to 500 point dip in the DJI is directly a result of the current uncertainties over war jitters and the lack of any concord in the U.S. about how to end the recession. War jitters cause international sources to continue to draw down their U.S. inventories of cash and securities in favor of Euros. Consider this a tax on international confidence imposed by the stubbornness of the Imperial Party which continues to perpetuate our position at the edge of the precipice. So long as these huge uncertainties continue, there will be no sign of economic recovery.

GEO-POLITICAL WATCH
How the sunspots are likely to most effect human affairs during the weeks and months ahead?

SIGN OF THE TIMES: Ken Lay, just a good ole boy Texan, the Presiding Officer of the rape of California Consumers, otherwise known as Enron, is still scott free with his crooked billions…But the Enron Wicked Web of greed and gross and egregious “taking advantage of everyone” is beginning to unravel. Another of the Enron crooks was indicted and another one will be shortly. Enron is now suing Ken Lay directly for the return of some money, 2003 should be a great year for a continuing soap opera of scandalous corporate news.

AS PREVIOUSLY ENCOURAGED, if you have never read 1984, now is the time. AND HOW. All the strategies and techniques of Hitler’s and Goebbels’ agitprop and disinformation technology is currently being employed everyday in massive doses against YOU. You had best wake up to how the mantras work. Check out the Media Lens organization. They are providing some really good wake up antidote. http://www.medialens.org

Overcoming Media Bias – here is another interesting lead
http://www.rense.com/general34/vest.htm

Whatever you do, ignore the polls. They are consciously designed and used to lead you into concluding that YOU need to change your opinion or feelings and conform to someone else’s. THEY DO NOT EXIST FOR ANY OTHER REASON, THOSE WHO PAY FOR THEM ARE STRUCTURING AND RELEASING THEM IN WAYS TO MANIPULATE YOU, NOT TO INFORM YOU.

BUT – if you have the opportunity to cast a vote in a media poll, for goodness sakes get the computer mouse squeaking.

Did you get the following headline news for Wednesday?

“Colin Powell displays evidence which shows that Saddam Hussein’s forces are evading the U.N. weapons inspectors and are hiding weapons. Powell calls for militant action to deal with this crisis of confidence. The French Ambassador to the U.N. agrees that this is a serious problem and proposes a vastly expanded high-tech monitoring program with a fleet of Mirage 4 Jets to fly over Iraq on a daily basis to catch the evaders. Russia agrees and volunteers to send planes and inspectors as well.”

I wrote that. That’s what happened at the U.N. but the chances are you didn’t get this news because it is beyond the intellectual capabilities of most of the newer generation of American journalists, MOST ESPECIALLY THOSE IN THE BROADCAST MEDIA. A great many of them no longer know how to understand much of anything which comes from outside the American “ego bubble” which is prevalent among yuppies on the eastern seaboard of the U.S.

For months now the U.S. population has been subjected to an intense propaganda barrage by the Bush administration and its supporting cast of right-wing think-tank, instant-expert, mass-media Gestapo who appear out of nowhere with questionable credentials to pompously proclaim The America The Dominant (because we can) Holy War against Terrorism in Iraq (but please don’t notice that Iraq does not engage in foreign terrorism and especially don’t notice that Henry Kissinger is a dedicated, hired, and handsomely bribed agent of foreign powers).

But the propaganda is not working to whip up a majority despite the best efforts of most parts of the American Mass Broadcast Media to ignore international news and opinion while spoonfeeding Americans a highly slanted and subjective twist about Iraq, hyperventilated interpretations about the facts related to Iraq’s weapons and concealment, and most especially, to extreme manipulation of the words and rhetoric which define the issues surrounding Iraq’s weapons.

Despite all of the mind-numbing incessant propaganda of the last six months, the American public began to wake up in December and January. Paralleling the crystallization of world opinion during the last few months, Americans on the internet and in print media everywhere in the U.S. have begun to subject the verbal gamesmanship of America’s homegrown wannabe Imperial Proconsuls to heavy intellectual fire. Prominent members of the Democratic Party began to bolt from its “centrist” leaders and positions, and more and more voices and faces in opposition to war were beginning to be seen on American TV.

Though the heavy slanting in favor of right wing agitprop and government manipulation can still be seen in how CNN, Fox, and even how ABC and NBC frame the issues, poise the questions, report polls, and choose talking head experts, it is clear that the Imperial Party has lost momentum and is beginning to drift into waters it cannot control.

Enter Colin Powell onto the world stage this Wednesday to revive the beating of the war drums. Sincerely presenting the case for Saddam Hussein’s concealments, including some serious evidence which appears to demonstrate that Iraqi forces are moving various weapons components one step ahead of the inspectors, Powell endeavored to press the case for closing off the inspections and move the world to discussions of a united front to oust Saddam with military force, which is probably the main option this not-so-retired-general understands. He also outlined with professional acumen what he claimed to be the links of active cooperation between Al Qaeda and Saddam Hussein, which in the minds of the Bush administration creates the impelling need to immediately destroy whatever it is that Hussein could supply to Al Qaeda terrorists.

Now that evidence is very interesting, especially for what it does not tell us. More on that is going to surface as people begin to actually think about WHAT IT IS THAT POWELL WAS DOING (never mind what he was saying, what matters is what he did and did not do). More on that later…

CNN immediately jumped on the revival meeting in its typical twisty way. No sooner had Powell finished than Anchor “Ace Reporter” Paula “Gams” Zahn was wondering out loud what it would take to get those “recalcitrant” French and Russian governments to accept the evidence and stop opposing U.S. efforts to get rid of Hussein. From out of thin air, Wolf Blitzer’s editors materialized a 30’s something ex-bureaucrat who immediately pipelined to tens of millions of people worldwide all of the worst rhetorical devices which have been used by the right wing to denigrate French, Russian, and German foreign policy positions in order to rationalize an immediate full scale military attack on Iraq.

One wonders how they can possibly continue to do that without irritating immensely larger portions of the world. Out of what must be a pool of some several hundred thousand well educated people in North America who have some serious experience of the past 50 years, who actually know something about other cultures and countries, and have matured into some statesmanship perspectives in many fields of humanity, CNN editors choose to have a 20’s or 30’s something nobody ever heard of him ex U.S. State Department bureaucrat instant-expert opine for us and the entire world about the recalcitrance of the French and the other nations of Europe in helping America in its noble crusade to protect Christendom from the infidel hordes of Islam. Oops sorry, er, wrong century, ah, that is, to help America disarm the evil torturing tyrant of terror in Iraq by removing him by force.

Sitting Bull tells me that the more he looks at what the mass broadcast industry does with the “news” the more he is becoming paranoid that we really have been invaded by “walk-ins” from an alien planet. Sitting Bull is nearly in a state of shock that these people really are doing increasingly stupid stuff while spouting increasingly crazy stuff. It sounds like just after the Civil War, he says, when crazy white men started saying “the only good injun was a dead one”.

According to today’s Mass Broadcaster shills and instant experts, it still seems that “war is inevitable” and that “the invasion must begin very soon”, “the evidence is really quite clear” and why isn’t the war beginning now for goodness sakes because everyone knows the score?

In fact, this is all stale bilgewater, pure political manipulation full of the same ploys which are now six months old. The entire script was written by Herr Goebbels 70 years ago. You just keep saying the same thing over and over and over again everywhere until it replaces all other thoughts.

These things, the inevitability of war, only “seem” this way because YOU are supposed to SUPPOSE that these things are inevitable and that no matter what you know or think, you are too marginalized to have anything to say about it and certainly how dare anyone interfere in the work of our “ta da, war time president”, who is just trying to protect us. The whole America The Dominant (because we can, ta da) play which the right wing has designed to unfold during the next several months is absolutely dependent upon YOU buying into this HALLUCINATION, that war is inevitable.

How much more obvious does this classical Orwellian manipulation have to get before Americans en masse begin to hold their noses every time CNN is mentioned? I don’t know it for a fact, but I have almost no doubt that I would find that this latest instant-expert talking head for CNN works for a right wing political or military-industrial institute.

Meanwhile, even as the Mass Broadcast shills clacked away, the French and Russians this Wednesday were outlining in the U.N. Security Council Meeting essentially what Diane Feinstein articulated several days ago. AS STATED LAST WEEK, a reasonably centrist Democrat, Diane Feinstein from California, seems to have boiled down the entire international debate in a few pithy lines which are good enough and reasonable enough to carry the day forward on a reasonable basis. She observes that Saddam Hussein is a “WORLD PROBLEM” and she notes that virtually the entire world (outside of the hawks in the Bush Administration and the Republican ranks) wants Saddam and his disarmament dealt with as a WORLD SOLUTION, imposed by and through the U.N. – NOT the U.S. She further observes, along with Joe Biden, another Democratic Senator, almost nobody abroad is buying the idea of the Lone Ranger from Texas riding alone into Dodge to route out the evil gang, nobody, well almost nobody, outside the U.S. is buying into America The Dominant (because we can, ta da) argument.

The French Ambassador even began the articulation of a powerful vision, partially echoed by Russia, for how a world solution could be engineered to make nuclear, biological, and chemical weapons in Iraq increasingly rare. This proposal was exceptionally newsworthy but completely ignored by America’s Most Trusted News Leaders. Essentially the French Ambassador issued a challenge to the world to put together a high technology monitoring program which grows so increasingly intrusive at all levels of activity in Iraq during the succeeding months that the hidden weapons programs break down and pieces begin to become exposed. He mentioned that France would be willing to contribute constant aireal surveillance with a fleet of Mirage 4 jets and increasing many times the numbers of weapons inspectors and their field offices and capabilities. The Russians offered to contribute airplanes as well.

IN OTHER WORDS, AND THIS IS AN ABSOLUTELY CRUCIAL POINT IN THE CURRENT DEBATE OVER WAR AND PEACE, the French and the Russians are not advocating a status quo continuation of existing conditions. They are not advocating putting their faith on Hans Blix. They are not talking about playing an endless shell game with Hussein because they are too timid to deal with reality, as America’s Imperial Party would have you believe. They are beginning the process of articulating a radical police action which would confront the activity of the Iraqi regime so deeply on a daily basis, Big Brother flying over every block with whistles to call the hounds in along the ground, that the shell game could not continue.

This is an absolutely brilliant strategic concept and is far superior to ideas about the Long Ranger riding in with wagon trains of explosives to blow Saddam, and God knows how many children and women, away.

Both the French and the Russians pressed again the need for all countries to act in concert in solidarity in OBEYING INTERNATIONAL LAW while dealing with the current crisis.

As written last week:

As remarked upon last week, these “radical” thoughts about international law and the primacy of the U.N. which the Europeans have been reminding us about these past many months, in case you hadn’t noticed, have been the ribcage of American Foreign Policy since the Atlantic Charter was created in early 1942 by REAL wartime leaders, Franklin Roosevelt and Winston Churchill, probably the two most effective leaders of the past 1000 years. The actions of these men have shaped all of our lives to this very day, including the current U.N. and all of Europe. They preserved democracy and LED THE WAY TO THE CONSCIOUS LIQUIDATION OF IMPERIALISM.

With the exception of a few minor actions, the U.S. has made international law and processes work, even during the long polarization of the cold war. The one major exception was Vietnam, which ended up as you bloody well know, a bitter defeat at horrendous cost which still stains the moral integrity of those still living in the U.S.

Since the collapse of communism, we now see vested cold-war interests and mentalities increasingly surface to advocate more and more in many ways a return to a de facto and not very subtle IMPERIAL ORDER under the U.S. The arguments for America The Dominant, the world’s one great superpower, has the effect of making the U.S. President AS a Roman Proconsul, able to initiate war and conduct military operations at will without regard to the human rights and national rights standards which the Euro, American, and other peoples have so laboriously created through the past several centuries of blood and which they finally implemented widely through a succession treaties which began after the Napoleanic Wars and which culminated in the creation of the League of Nations and then the United Nations.

Fortunately the Euro peoples at the current time have assumed leadership to work towards peace. The overly aggressive actions and verbal bullying by various members of the Bush Administration have polarized a remarkable unanimity among both the Euro peoples and the Chinese, from Ireland to Vladivostok and Shanghai. They have, apparently, decided to take a lesson they received from an earlier, more idealistic generation of Americans and implement, with an amazing consensus which has formed up during the last few months, a determination to stand against any IMPERIALISM created by unilateral attacks by any nation against another.

Against this rather substantial international wall, many right wing activists are still attempting to hurl the Bush Administration, fists first, stridently proclaiming that the issue is “terrorists” and the only good ones are dead ones routed out by immediate military attacks (“because we can, we will”).

New material for this week:

With a new round of real evidence, the most substantive the U.S. has released to date, Powell apparently believes he can make the case. He clearly believes he has linked Al Qaeda with Hussein but there will be a lot of pro and con discussion on this one before the dust settles. And, when it does, does it matter? When it is all said and done, the situation is exactly as both parties say it is, they think the other one is a monster, not to be trusted. Do they do deals? Maybe. Maybe not. And we will probably never know for sure.

So far as the satellite photos and various descriptions which Powell displayed to the world, what is most interesting about these is the inability of the U.S. to publicly vet such data as a matter of course which everyone of any technical knowledge in the world knows is easily collected and probably is collected.

Who is kidding whom? The Iraqi’s know we photograph every square inch of Iraq every day. That the U.S. finds it difficult to share this intelligence information with its own citizens shows how immature American policy makers really are. This data should have been made available months ago.

Now let me tell you a story I know is true because I was there. I was a shipboard electronics technician in the U.S. Navy during the early 1960’s. I got out just before the Vietnam War (whew). My responsibility was some 454 electronic devices on a ship, including all of the top secret communications equipment. During our long sojourns at sea on the way to Hawaii, I got easily bored and found myself reading the CincPac (Commander In Charge Pacific) daily intelligence briefings. Only the top three command officers and the radiomen had access to these.

I never got over the fact that on a weekly basis they would send to every fleet commander descriptions of every military vehicle in China, where they were parked, what run way the planes were on, how much gas was in their tanks, how many were operational, how many planes could fly on a given day, what parts were missing, and so on. I was astounded that the U.S. Military could assemble that much intelligence about what was going on in China during the early 1960’s.

I read some of the dispatches about Cuba during the Cuban Missile Crisis. They even knew how many manhours were left before the first missile was assembled.

Folks, that was BEFORE satellite spies. They knew all that and yet were not wise enough to avoid conflicts which had no pay-off.

So far as Powell’s photos, what they did NOT tell YOU is that they know where all those trucks went, where they were off-loaded, what the objects looked like, etc. In other words, with that type of surveillance, they already know enough to destroy whatever is there…

Why don’t they just tell the arms inspectors?

From this and from what the French are proposing, perhaps you begin to get an inkling. NO WAR HAS EVER BEEN NECESSARY TO DISARM IRAQ. IF WEAPONS OF MASS DESTRUCTION ARE FOUND IN IRAQ, THEY ARE EASILY DESTROYED. IF THE U.S. PROOFS REALLY ARE PROOFS, THEY ALMOST CERTAINLY HAVE THE ENTIRE CHAIN OF EVIDENCE WHICH LEADS TO WHERE SUCH ITEMS DEPICTED IN THE PHOTOS CURRENTLY ARE.

What then is the appropriate strategy? More searching, more constant surveillance, more active total intrusion. Eventually, more of those evils goods probably will get caught and certainly the atomic threat will be impossible to implement.

As reported last week, we can see that American foreign policy still is careening at a high rate of speed against a rather thick and large wall composed of an enormously large part of the world’s population, which is signaling that it intends to DEMOCRATICALLY veto American proposals concerning war in Iraq.

Powell’s case will make no difference. The world, quite obviously, will favor the French lead. Let us hope and pray that Bush, who does have many redeeming virtues, can be led to Diane Feinstein’s and France’s definition of the issue: this is a world problem and only the people of the world as a unity, in combination with the Arab and Muslim peoples, can deal legitimately and soundly with this issue. If seriously undertaken, with the precision of war planning, an intensive surveillance strategy has good odds of success.

The Motivation For War

One question lingers in the background like a big, sick, smelly, barfing dog with extremely bad breath. It is impossible not to notice it. If disarming Iraq requires no major military invasion, what really are the motives behind the URGENT need to “change the regime”.

There is a very interesting global analysis which has just been completed on exactly this question. Perhaps, in one hyphen word: the petro-dollar. The article which explores Oil Imperialism and the Weakening Dollar is at
http://www.rense.com/general34/realre.htm

Caution: I am not clear that the motivations revealed by the author are really understood by Bush and his main supporters (handlers?), I don’t suppose that Bush is sneaky enough to be so diabolical and disingenuous to really be about manipulating international currency while talking up war, but I do suspect that at least some of the motivation discussed by the author is close to the hearts and minds of some of the major backers of the right wing cabal which has taken over control of the administrative branch of the U.S. government. It isn’t about oil profits for an oil company, it isn’t about terrorism, it is about preserving the primacy of the dollar as the only currency which is used to buy and sell oil, hence, is the only currency in universal world demand as is oil.

It is about imperial support of the dollar, by keeping it backed with oil, to sustain the relative value of the American super wealthy vis a vis the world.

Iraq last year began to sell its oil in Euros, not dollars……. If the oil producers in the Middle East go the same way, if the other OPEC nations denote the price of oil in Euros rather than dollars…..what then?

Bye Bye Miss American Pie, the levy will be dry. Europe in total has a balanced trade account with the world, the U.S. has a hopelessly out of balance trade account. Hitherto, the U.S. dollar value is supported by all the world’s banks on the theory that the maintenance of international order is preserved by fixing the value of the dollar vis a vis a barrel of oil. Thus, all oil is bought and sold at a dollar price. Despite massive increases in ledger accounts on the debt side against the dollar, its value vis a vis oil has actually improved during the past 30 years, despite the inflation of all other prices.

So the question really becomes, what if you could not buy oil anymore with dollars?

If oil is priced for sale in Euros, Europe’s Euro will be highly stable and so will the price of oil. But the dollar, it would no longer have a primacy function and would become increasingly unstable. Bankers would ask, why use dollars to buy and well oil? Accordingly, international demand would begin to fade, the dollar could sink into the oblivion of the peso until the trade imbalance stopped and American’s stopped producing weapons of mass destruction in favor of real goods which real people with real money want to buy. The American’s would simply be unable to support their engorged police state and international protection rackets. The military system would shrink, the empire would crumble, the multi-national corporations would flee to safer havens..

How do you stop this? Iraq has the second largest reserves in the world and can easily pump several million gallons per day – more than enough to break OPEC controls and price specs. The “oil weapon” could be used against OPEC to force specification of oil prices in dollars. If sold only in dollars, the Imperial Party may be able to hold enough world primacy for the dollar to maintain its value for another 20 years.

I am usually personally hesitant to buy into these grand theories, reality is usually far messier than the logic of these paradigms. But this background information about the historical role of the petro-dollar in maintaining the U.S. economy against all comers is HIGHLY INTERESTING and the analysis may show us what is likely to happen during the next decade IN ANY EVENT.