Earth Changes Bulletin Update As Of April 9 2003
You have heard of the Weather Report? Here exclusively is this week’s "Earth Report" - a short review of the “big picture” about how the dynamic changes in the Sun and the Earth are effecting our lives more and more intensely, with the latest prognostications and predictions for weathermen, farmers, investors, businessmen, and every man.

This update is keyed to the Earth Changes 2003 Almanac Calendar. The framework for understanding these updates and much of the current status information is maintained in capsule form in the Almanac at the locations cited in the text of this Update.

On the geophysical front, all tectonic level is relatively quiescent. Planetary alignments and sunspot peaks will continue to produce robust waves of stormy weather through April and major Spring floods may appear in some areas.

For the geopolitical front, a hated tyrant is clearly deposed and many Iraqi people are beginning to feel a sense of liberation from an awful past. In this we can all feel a sense of liberation and joy from the fears and uncertainties of the past several months. Let us hope the liberation sentiment is widely shared in Iraq and let us pray that the recontruction of Iraq is accomplished as skillfully as General Franks’ invasion.

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Program Thesis: What are we trying to do with the Earth Changes Bulletin?

Most news media do not handle technical and scientific subjects like geology and earth sciences very well. They don't understand the causes and effects of activities in the Sun and Earth. Accordingly, they often do not understand if, when, how, why to report earthquakes, volcanic activity, global warming effects The treatment often sounds absent-minded, poorly qualified, and frequently contains various technical errors. Seldom is the treatment entertaining and genuinely educational.

Based on new scientific principles which have emerged during the past thirty years, many of the dynamic activities of the Sun and Earth can be linked together to see how a range of effects are linked together. This makes it possible to paint "the big picture" into a perspective which explains many diverse events and processes, especially climate and weather patterns such as global warming and El Nino. From the "big picture", long range predictions can be made for weeks and even months ahead.

The result is sophisticated cutting-edge information which is objective, balanced, astute, relevant, and can be easily seen and appreciated by lay audiences. The perspective is generally global, seldom parochial.

For the framework of concepts, terms, and current conditions which are used or described in the these Bulletins, see the Earth Changes 2003 Almanac Calendar.

To see the internet resources which are used to prepare this Update, take a look at the Earth Monitor front page
http://www.michaelmandeville.com/earthmonitor
If anyone has any suggestions about evolving these pages, now is a good time as I devote a few minutes each day to revising menus and adding new links.


INTERNET WATCH:

I didn’t notice any slowdown. Bogus virus email did not appear. But receipt of spam scam email in my email boxes has gone way up. Anybody have a clue?

Apparantly the report on MSNBC about an assault on the Internet by Chinese Hackers to protest the War On Iraq has failed to materialize. Is it still on the way???

At this point, it seems doubtful.

POLAR MOTION
What is happening to the motion of the Earth.

The X Wave in Chandler’s Wobble HAS finally passed its MIN. Polar Motion seems to be smoothing out.
http://www.michaelmandeville.com/earthmonitor/topten_monitor.htm

AS PREVIOUSLY REPORTED: It now appears that the x max, which should be achieved at about the end of October, will be smaller than the last x max. Since this coming x max should be larger than the last one, we will definitely have a strange anomaly showing us another aspect of the instability in the wobble of the axis. This is not necessarily a portent. There have been at least two other anomalies during the past 100 years of a similar nature. Before I try to sort this out and compare it with the past 100 years I will wait for the cycle to be more complete.

AS PREVIOUSLY REPORTED: It will now head toward the last annual MAX in this current 6.5 year cycle of Chandler’s Wobble. This annual MAX should be achieved about the beginning of October of this year. This MAX will define the MAX for this entire current cycle. When this 6.5 year MAX point is achieved, the average location of the North Spin Axis can be computed and thus the current rate of shifting in the location of the wobbling pole can also be computed by comparison with the previous cycles.

REPEATED: PRELIMINARY FIGURE FOR RECENT DISPLACEMENT: This is a preliminary indication which needs more work: the average location of the pole appears to have shifted possibly as much as 91.1 inches or 231.5 centimeters since the beginning of 1996. That implies an average rate of shifting of the poles since 1996 of 13 inches/yr. or 33 centimeters/year. This rate is substantially higher than it has been during most of the 20th century. What the rate of acceleration may be I cannot determine at the current time. Is the crust of the Earth currently slipping over the molten mantle at a faster rate? Probably yes.

To see the current graph of polar motion, see
http://www.michaelmandeville.com/earthmonitor/topten_monitor.htm
Scroll down the page until you get to the black and white graphs with show the x and y coordinates of the North Spin Axis on two separate graphs.

For additional current details: see http://www.michaelmandeville.com/ebooks/calendar2003/currentconditions.htm#polarmotion

FOR NEWBIES: The vortex tectonics paradigm of the earth holds that polar motion in the 6.5 year wobble cycle (Chandler’s) creates the major stress in the Earth’s crust which is released by lunar tidal forces each month in the form of earthquakes and volcanism. The acceleration in the motion of the drift of the poles and its relocation forces an increasing tempo in the shape shifting of the Equatorial zone, where 70% of tectonic activity occurs. Accordingly, earthquakes and volcanic activity should increase in frequency and magnitude.

PLANETS (all time coordinates here and elsewhere are in UTC)

The Moon this day is still in its North Node and is now in the Second Quarter, with one week until the Full Moon on April 16, followed by the Lunar Perigee nine hours later on April 17 (in the UTC calendar). (Perigee = the Moon’s closest approach to the Earth during its monthly orbit which increases gravitational influence of the Moon by as much as 15%; Apogee = the Moon’s greatest distance from the Earth during its monthly orbit).

We just passed a planetary alignment on April 6 with Mercury | Saturn. This will be followed on April 15 with a double alignment of the planets of Mercury | Jupiter with Venus | Neptune. This should give us a fairly fat peak in the sunspot counts in the range of 170 to 220 which should commence to rise again in a day or so from today’s date. (To see a chart of this double alignment go to the Earth Changes 2003 Calendar and click on the planet link.
http://www.michaelmandeville.com/ebooks/calendar2003/calendar.htm

Two more planetary alignments will straddle the New Moon on May 1: Venus | Uranus on April 30 and Mercury | Earth on May 3. The sunspot counts for this should be a double pointed peak between about 150 and 190 and this peak should commence about April 20, reach final high about April 26-28, and then precipitously decline into the range of 10 – 30.

AS PREDICTED TWO WEEKS AGO: This double alignment around April 15 is sure to bring out some stormy solar weather but it may not bring much of it to the Earth. Sunspots should go high, however, and so should earthquake activity related to the Full Moon on the 16th which is followed nine hours later by Perigee. This should be an interesting week for watching the cosmic vectors and their influences on the Earth. Naturally the last week in April should see a lot of Spring rains with major flooding in the usual places of the past few years.

See Earth Changes 2003 Almanac Calendar for additional details
http://www.michaelmandeville.com/ebooks/calendar2003/
The Almanac lays out the entire year in advance to allow you to find the best and worst periods of weather.

PLANET WATCHING:

Mercury: On Tuesday evening I saw Mercury just after the Sun drop below the horizon of the Mountains to the West of Black Canyon City. The glow of the sky was still fairly light above the horizon and there following the Sun’s path was a very tiny point of very bright light. It could only have been Mercury, which I confirmed by looking at the Orrery charts for the relative positions of the planets. That was the first time that I knew for certain that I had seen Mercury. Try it again this evening but don’t wait too long as it will be moving rapidly each day into position once again between the Earth and the Sun.

Jupiter: Currently Jupiter is very easy to find. If you look directly overhead in the Northern Hemisphere just after sunset you will easily find Jupiter to be the brightest star in the mid heavens.

Venus & Mars, both should be visable at the same time but very far apart in the very wee early hours before dawn, say about 3 AM.

SUNSPOTS
The events in the solar atmosphere which impact weather and climate patterns, the magnetic field and auroras, including forecasts for the week, month, and year ahead.

Sunspots counts are WAY down this past three days but even so today the SOLAR WEATHER IS CHAOTIC AND EXTREMELY PETULANT as has been so much the case this past two months.

AS PREVIOUSLY REPORTED: Over all, the sunspot average count for February was 46.4 and for March it rose to 61.5. Based on planetary alignments during April, the average sunspot count should be somewhere between these two numbers for April, but closer to March than February.

The sunspot numbers peaked into a triple-headed peak ranging between 160 and 190 to close out March. The count rose on March 28 to about 190, then again at 176 on March 30 after a small dip on March 29. A another small dip on March 31 and then another rise brought the count up to 190 again for April 2. Apparently this last rise (four days early) was for the alignment of Mercury | Saturn on April 6.

The count dropped rapidly and stood at 54 on April 8. As of April 9, the Planetary Magnetic Field A Index is on a rapid rise and the Flux Index is rounding out and starting to head back up at about 110. These turns almost always presage another rise in sunspot counts. Expect the next surge in the counts to begin at any moment.

Solar-induced magnetic fields and flux ARE AGAIN HIGHLY UNSTABLE. The Fluxgate Monitor at the U of Alaska showed THREE HUGE severe magnetic disturbances during the past 24 hours in the Earth’s Atmosphere. As of this moment, the Solar Wind Speed is a modest 464.8 km/s and at this hour it is pushing an exceptional high density of only 13.2 protons/cm. This high density and magnetic disturbances are likely induced by a succession of coronal holes (in the Sun’s atmosphere).

Jan Alvestad predicts: “The western part of a huge coronal hole (CH31), mainly in the southern hemisphere, was in a geoeffective position on April 6-9. The eastern part of CH31 will rotate to a geoeffective position on April 11-12.” and “The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to minor storm on April 9 and unsettled to major storm on April 10-13 when the high speed stream from CH31 dominates the solar wind. Long distance medium wave (AM) band propagation along east-west paths over high and upper middle latitudes is very poor and will likely remain so at least until April 17, propagation along north-south paths is poor but should become fair to good during the next coronal hole related disturbance and remain fairly good until at least April 16.”
See http://www.dxlc.com/solar/

All this means that you can expect the unexpected in weather and disturbances. Freakish sudden storms are likely. Winds and precipitation may continue to set records in various areas. AURORA WATCHING SHOULD BE GREAAAAAAAAT for the next week.

AS PREVIOUSLY PREDICTED: During the first two weeks of April, the sunspot counts should remain fairly high, but probably with a dip into 30-80 range on about April 4 through to 10, then peaking high again, possibly above 200, during about April 10 to 14 for the April 15 double alignment of the planets or Mercury | Jupiter with Venus | Neptune. By April 17 or so the sunspots should be back down in the low double digits and they should stay that way until about April 26 when they will rise again for the Venus | Uranus alignment on April 30 and the Mercury | Earth alignment on May 3.
Continue to expect anything with this Solar Cycle.

Major Spring storm fronts should peak in their energy about six to 14 days after each of these sunspot peaks, with flood conditions appearing in impacted areas on about the 14th day after the sunspot peaks.

To follow these numbers, view the Solar Cycle 23 Chart at
http://www.michaelmandeville.com/earthmonitor/topten_monitor.htm

GLOBAL DROUGHT AND FLOOD WATCH
Stories and assessments about drought and flood conditions around the world; global information which provides the ability to assess the impacts to agriculture and the natural environment.

What produced that foot of snow in such a wide area of North America the last few days? The last sunspot peak at 190 about the first of April. Get ready for another surge in the weather on about April 18-25. The double alignments of April 15 will create a sunspot peak on about April 11, which should be followed seven to fourteen days later with a lot more precipatation…somewhere. It may be warm enough that it takes only the form of rain and, naturally, floods could result.

Arizona is basking in a very green and flowery Spring but the additional round of rain I was hoping for has not appeared. Solar activity is simply too high and the marine moisture is going into the Northern lattitudes, much like a repeat of last year’s drought pattern. This current pattern should break after the double alignments on the 15th and I hope we get one more good Spring rainstorm.

AS PREVIOUSLY PREDICTED: Expect things to be mild and relatively normal during the first week to tens days of April, followed by another wave of wet spring storms during the middle of April. The third week of April should be even more petulant following a dual set of planetary alignments. Expect a lot of flooding from heavy wet storms which lay down large quantities of water. Summer monsoons may be late and will be ended sooner than normal by the planetary alignments which begin in mid-August, most especially by the Mars | Earth alignment at the end of August.

For additional details, see
http://www.michaelmandeville.com/ebooks/calendar2003

EL NINO WATCH:

AS PREVIOUSLY PREDICTED: There may be a La Nina during the later part of 2003 and through part of 2004, but it is likely that it will be barely noticeable because of the accumulated “Global Warming” and the relatively high levels of volcanic heat venting in the Earth. The next El Nino is likely to appear in 2005 or 2006.

CHEMTRAILS
See http://www.deepspace4.com/pages/main/pagemain.htm

EARTHQUAKES
Around the world to see the current and potential patterns of seismic activity, with coverage of the windows of danger. I prepared this section by pulling out the Earth Changes 2003 Calendar which has everything plotted on it. You should too. Check out the Almanac as well, it discusses all of the windows for the year and even spotlights the two most dangerous windows.

OUR TRACK RECORD FOR QUAKES FOR THE LAST TWO MONTHS HAS BEEN TERRIBLE. I HAVE NO IDEA WHY THE QUAKES ARE NOT FALLING OBEDIENTLY INTO THEIR SYZYGY WINDOWS. SOMETHING ELSE HAS BEEN IN PLAY AND I HAVE NO IDEA WHAT.

NEXT SYZYGY WINDOW: The next Full Moon Syzygy begins April 14 and the window should remain open until April 18. This period should be fairly strong in both frequency and magnitude of earthquakes, definitely stronger than during this New Moon and the last Full Moon. BUT, since this same prediction failed for the last TWO Full Moon Syzygies, who can say? Science fails here so talk to your favorite psychic.

RECENT EVENT OF INTEREST THIS PAST FEW DAYS

It’s a yawn a and draw. Hmmm, well, check out this April 7th 5.9 mag quake near Honsho, Japan, it was back to back with another quake in the same area an hour later.

http://neic.usgs.gov/neis/bulletin/neic_shbc.html

To see the world quake chart by the USGS, click on
http://neic.usgs.gov/neis/current/

The most dominant pattern for this period in between syzgygies was twofold. By far the greatest quake activity for the past week was found in Asia, ranging from Greece to China, and in the Western loop of the Pacific Rim of Fire (Japan down through to Papua). The overall magnitude and frequency of quake activity was about what one would expect for this phase of the Moon.

The USGS charts (such charts show all quakes 1.0 and above) for the U.S. and Alaska show 291 quakes for the past seven days (which is lower than the last week’s 357) with the USGS chart for California/Nevada showing 227 of these in California during the past seven days (down from the last week’s 271).

Relatively speaking, California continues to show a substantially higher rate of seismic activity than its normal historical pattern vis a vis Alaska. Normally, Alaska show more seismic activity than California, which makes it the top site in North America and one of the top five most active areas in the world.

Hood had 2 microquakes (up one from last week) and the USGS chart for Long Valley Cauldera (Area) showed a running total of 14, which is down from 17 last week). Since this bucks the trend, barely, one should attribute this to increased volcanic activity at the Hood site.

The USGS Chart for the Pacific Northwest reveals 27 quakes (two week sum, down from 38 microquakes last week) most of them scattered through the middle of the Puget Sound and along the Cascade Mountains of Washington State and down into Oregon. Four of these quakes were in very close to St. Helens, which reinforces our interpretation of the two microquakes at the base of Hood.

The Rockies and Yellowstone buck this pattern, however. The USGS Chart of Yellowstone Cauldera Area shows 5 microquakes during the last week (down from 14 last week) and 31 quakes scattered throughout Utah (up from last week).

FULL MOON WATCH ON COLIMA – POPO – COOS BAY – SAN ANDREAS
REMEMBER THE COSTA NOSTRA DAMUS PREDICTION: We will watch Coos Bay, San Andreas, Colima, Popo, very carefully.

AS REPORTED LAST WEEK: THE PERIGEE WATCH IS REVEALING A STRONG REVERSE CORRELATION THAN THE ONE WE EXPECTED: The Full Moon Perigee Syzygies during the first few months of 2003 have become weaker rather than stronger as the Full Moon and New Moon moments drew closer together. THIS STATEMENT IN THE EARTH CHANGES ALMANAC MAY BE WRONG: Their mutual influence should combine exponentially, not linearly. Along about the middle of April, we can expect the worst quake season which has been felt in many months. See the Earth Changes 2003 Almanac Calendar for timing details.

VOLCANOES
Around the world with the most interesting and relevant volcano stories; briefs on the likely eruptions as well as coverage of on-going activity.

I will no longer try to correlate anything with the TimeStar paradigm. I don’t understand the paradigm but apart from that, I cannot see from the facts in the ground during the past three months that it successfully predicts increases in volcanic activity. For additional details, see timestar@timestar.org, http://www.timestar.org

El Popo followed Yellowstone and Long Valley this week. It was again down for the second week in a row offering only a 15 puff day yesterday. Centrapred reports for April 9 (16:00 GMT) that “In the last 24 hours, the Popocatepetl volcano activity remained in a steady level. There were 15 exhalations with moderate intensity, accompanied by steam and gas. Also isolated episodes of low amplitude harmonic tremor were recorded accumulating about 3 hours. The other monitored parameters remain without important changes. At this moment we can not see the volcano due to the clouds.
As long as there are remains of the dome, which was confirmed recently (see image), explosive activity is possible implying ash emissions and incandescent material ejections around the crater.”

Volcanic activity this past seven days is about the same as during the past three weeks. The Southwest Volcano Centre reports 35 volcanoes on the alert status list (up one from last week), 5 volcanoes on the restless list (same as last four weeks), and 20 on the active eruption list (same as las week).

AG INDUSTRY WATCH
Because of the high load of stress which the current peak in the sunspots have placed on the Ag industry, we alert on the changing scene in agriculture and how these are likely to effect the broader economy.

AS PREVIOUSLY REPORTED: Famine reports confirm last year’s predictions. While the world’s attention is focused on a provocative military campaign ordered by George Bush Jr., famines in East Africa have left most of Ethiopia and other portions of Africa in dire straits. Some 38 million Africans are starving to death.

If people want to unify the world in peace, truly making peace,

IT IS NOW TIME TO MOVE PAST IRAQ AND MOVE ONTO THE ISSUE OF FAMINE IN AFRICA. This IS the world’s humanitarian catastrophe.

ECONOMIC WATCH

AS PREVIOUSLY PREDICTED: It is doubtful that any economic recovery will begin to be felt until much later in the year, probably not until Fall of 2003.

BUT SIGNS CAN ALREADY BE DETECTED THAT THE RECESSION IS OVER.

DITECH.COM ARBITRAGER:
4.625 (15 yr) and 5.25 (30 year) first line web quotes – SAME AS LAST WEEK

but their TV ad rates are now higher than two week ago, now up to 5.325 and 5.677 for short and long term rates. On March 19 they were 5.25 (short) and 5.550 (long)

Basically, Ditech.com is telling us that it is slightly less difficult to find qualified borrowers, and that they expect a little more demand for money, which suggests a slight expansion in the economy may have begun.

(About Ditech Quotes: I am going to watch how close the arbitrager for Ditech.com calls it. I am placing a bet on their interest rate calculations, which are so finely chiseled, they have to be running pretty sophisticated indicator stats. When they clearly go up at least two pegs within a month, even if they are just very small increments, you will know there is wind in the sails of the economy. When the numbers go down you know the economy is still trying to find bottom.)

EURO WATCH
In May 2002, the Euro was priced at about $1.10. Today it closed down again at about $.93, after a brief rally of the dollar for a couple of pennies on Monday. The Dollar appears to be continuing its 12 month slide. This nearly 17% gain in the value of the Euro is probably one of the reasons why we are still getting lots of European tourists in Arizona in spite of everything else which is going on. PREDICTION: The value of the dollar will hold firm near this point for a few weeks and begin to climb back up as international confidence begins to build upon the realization that all the dire things which could have gone wrong this past few months most fortunately did not.

GENERAL PREDICTION DJI AVERAGES: Conditions remain highly unstable but the worst is probably breaking now. BEAR presence is still strong but Bull energy will probably rule the Spring. For the moment, expect 200 to 500 point movements in as little as a day generally hovering around 8200-8500 during the next several weeks. This number will gradually inch upwards to 9000 as the invasion of Iraq draws to a conclusion.

Beyond this the number cannot remain until a real turn around is evident in the U.S. economy. So far we are empty-handed in this department, BUT IT IS LIKELY THAT A SPRING UPTURN IS BEGINNING. It may be more strongly evident within a month.

Any major adverse result in the American War On Iraq will see sudden downturns for one to a few days BUT THESE ARE GOING TO BE INCREASINGLY UNLIKELY.

LAST WEEK’S CLOSING DJI PREDICTION WAS WIDE OF THE MARK: “Stocks will continue to rally slowly upward and may close 8700, plus or minus 100. Condition prediction with the above General Prediction.” WHAT HAPPENED? The stocks closed a little below 8300.

THIS WEEK’S CLOSING DJI PREDICTION: “Stocks will rally slowly upward and may close 8500, plus or minus 200. Condition prediction with the above General Prediction.”

MAJOR ADVERSE CONTINGENCIES: Far fewer than last two weeks. The SARS virus may disrupt air travel enough to cause another depressive wave to flow through the economy, which will send the stock market south by a long ways. Asian brokers are already discounting the economies of Hong Kong and Singapore. WATCH SYRIA: If Bush Administration functionaries antagonize Syria sufficiently, Syrian politicians (who are not hated internationally and have gained some stature by their normalization of Lebanon and reduction of terrorism) are fully able to polarize much of the Muslim AND Arabic world against the U.S. Any increase in this polarization will be devastating to the U.S. economy. WATCH EURO BOYCOTTS: They are now less likely to gather steam, yet still they are quite disturbing. German merchants are now withdrawing famous American brand names from visibility in some areas. Many Arab and Muslim nations have similar movements underway. These could become more potent over time. These withdrawals will directly impact the U.S. economy and they are currently tending towards a deepening contraction of the U.S. economy.

REPEAT FROM LAST WEEK: Don’t get fooled by major rallies. These rebounds will be too fast. A fundamental shift in the economy has to be felt before stocks begin to ride the next Bull.

The easy success in Iraq and the increasing acceptance of the Iraqi people, along with a huge $80 billion short term spending bill for the Pentagon and Homeland Defense, plus the likelihood of huge Iraq reconstruction bonds and contracts to be let out in the next few months, all auger for confidence in the coming of an expansion of the U.S. economy and an upsurge in stock values. By May there may be enough apparent boyancy to consider a buying strategy for the next two to three years. I would wait, however, and let things firm up a bit during the summer. Then scoop up what you want to buy in late August, before Labor Day.

HEALTH WATCH

The SARS virus is going to be a problem at least for awhile. BUT, it is NOT showing a dynamic geometric expansion curve. Its spread is being controlled AND/OR it is not as contagious as feared. Despite the concern, regular pneumonia is killing far more people every week than SARS.

AS REPORTED LAST WEEK: SARS greatest impact may be simply the hysteria it causes in various areas, such as the case of sniffles causing the quarantine of an airliner and a school. Martial law is always a possibility, ANYWHERE, and could grow to impact major metropolitan areas with nearly complete economic shutdowns for a few days to a few weeks. It appears to be a little early to draw any realistic conclusion about the rates of progression of SARS and the possibility of major economic impact. All we can do is hope that it will be as slow as it is currently, which will mean that it gradually will fade away as a crisis and remain just another form of pneumonia, which is already a killer of old people. WATCH HONG KONG and TORONTO. As Hong Kong and Toronto go, so go many major metropolitan areas.

GEO-POLITICAL WATCH
How are the sunspots likely to most effect human affairs during the weeks and months ahead?

SIGN OF THE TIMES: IT LOOKS LIKE, America’s hot adventure “reality” show, “The Empire Strikes Back” HAS successfully keep much of the corporate scandals under the rug. ARE YOU SURPRISED? Ken Lay, just a good ole boy Texan, the Presiding Officer of the rape of California Consumers, otherwise known as Enron, is still scott free with his crooked billions…But the Enron Wicked Web of greed and gross and egregious “taking advantage of everyone” is beginning to unravel. Enron is now suing Ken Lay directly for the return of some money. Enron and many other suppliers have been found guilty of overcharging California consumers and the judges are now toting up the bill, which will be in the billions. 2003 should be a great year for a continuing soap opera of scandalous corporate news about all of this but apparently the good ole boys have mastered the art of how to dodge and duck personal connections to any responsibility.

Keep checking out the Media Lens organization. http://www.medialens.org
They are providing some really good wake up antidote to the Orwellian Newspeak of the Imperial Faction.

Though one can and should still detest the political decision to unilaterally make War On Iraq outside U.N. auspices, one has to breathe thankfully and thank God for the relative skillfulness of the U.S. military machine. They have done a very good job of avoiding the slaughter of civilians. I am personally amazed. It now appears that total deaths in this invasion will be far fewer, far far fewer, than during Gulf War I.

It is highly preferable that the tyrant’s remains are found in the bottom of a bombed out bunker, but it is strongly possible that Saddam Hussein and family, like Osama Bin Laden, may just slowly fade away from view through Syria and become permanently invisible. With an international fortune estimated into the billions of dollars, he may be able to arrange a location from which he and his sons can continue to foment guerilla warfare (terrorism) inside Iraq against U.S. occupation.

Because of (a) the skillfulness of the military machine, (b) the desperation of the people, and (c) the no-show of Al Qaeda, chaos has largely been averted and we can all share in the Iraqi people’s joy of liberation from the hated tyranny. We have all had to sit out months of confusion over “anything can happen who knows what”. Now finally the dust can settle and things will get a lot clearer concerning the months and years ahead.

That Sunspot Cycle 23 had one hell of a Peak, n’est pas?