EarthMonitor

Earth Changes Bulletin Update As Of February 12, 2003

Earth Changes Bulletin Update As Of February 12 2003
You have heard of the Weather Report? Here exclusively is this week’s "Earth Report" - a short review of the “big picture” about how the dynamic changes in the Sun and the Earth are effecting our lives more and more intensely, with the latest prognostications and predictions for weathermen, farmers, investors, businessmen, and every man.

This update is keyed to the Earth Changes 2003 Almanac Calendar. The framework for understanding these updates and much of the current status information is maintained in capsule form in the Almanac at the locations cited in the text of this Update.

The good news for the geophysical vortex continues. Despite a larger than expected sunspot count of 190 for the Mercury | Mars Alignment on Feb 9, Solar Cycle 23 is waning while the last remaining small patch of El Nino water in the Pacific continues to cool off. This may gradually return us to nearly normal weather patterns in March.

For the geopolitical front….all is controversial uproar, unsettled, shifting to and fro. The anti-war movements continue to grow, Blair’s British government is destabilizing, the Bush Administration continues to lose credibility with bellicose, grossly exaggerated statements and illogical interpretations of events which insult European intelligence and sensitivities, and a European coalition is emerging more and more each day led by French, Belgium, German, and Russian desires to make the U.N. disarmament program work without resort to war. Many psychic sensitives report that the tendency seems to be towards an invasion of Iraq but some insist that the die is not cast, that a massive display of opposition would create enough pause to enable European leadership to assert itself. A WORD TO THE WISE WHO LIKE EMAIL: French consuls report that France is very interested in how Americans are reacting to their proposals to vastly expand the size of the arms inspection team in Iraq and add intensive airplane surveillance under French and Russian supervision. As soon as I can get better details on their plan I will send them but in the meantime, EVERYBODY SHOULD FIND A FRENCH, BELGIUM, GERMAN, OR RUSSIAN OFFICIAL AND TELL THEM TO OPENLY PUBLISH THEIR PROPOSALS IN AN ACCESSIBLE PLACE ON THE INTERNET BECAUSE THE AMERICAN PRESS IS TOO INTRANSIGENT TO ENABLE US TO GET A CLEAR VIEW OF THE PROPOSALS.

For the time being, our fate still hangs on the precipice of these fundamental choices as we stare bleakly into the unknown abyss of the next few weeks. The choices of the next few weeks may bring the easy restoration of harmony with Hussein contained in his cage for the foreseeable future, or chaos may erupt and fragment all peoples and nations in a long process of radical re-alignment of the nations. Let us hope that Bush can find himself happy to follow the lead of Feinstein and France to stand on unified ground.

KEEP PRAYING AS COPIOUSLY AS THE STARS IN THE HEAVENS. If the U.S. marches like the Lone Ranger into Iraq without solid U.N. backing, it will end up as tragedy far worse then Vietnam. I suspect it is exactly what Osama Bin Laden, the real enemy, is waiting for, a chance to split the Western world right down the middle.
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Program Thesis: What are we trying to do with the Earth Changes Bulletin?

Most news media do not handle technical and scientific subjects like geology and earth sciences very well. They don't understand the causes and effects of activities in the Sun and Earth. Accordingly, they often do not understand if, when, how, why to report earthquakes, volcanic activity, global warming effects The treatment often sounds absent-minded, poorly qualified, and frequently contains various technical errors. Seldom is the treatment entertaining and genuinely educational.

Based on new scientific principles which have emerged during the past thirty years, many of the dynamic activities of the Sun and Earth can be linked together to see how a range of effects are linked together. This makes it possible to paint "the big picture" into a perspective which explains many diverse events and processes, especially climate and weather patterns such as global warming and El Nino. From the "big picture", long range predictions can be made for weeks and even months ahead.

The result is sophisticated cutting-edge information which is objective, balanced, astute, relevant, and can be easily seen and appreciated by lay audiences. The perspective is generally global, seldom parochial.

For the framework of concepts, terms, and current conditions which are used or described in the these Bulletins, see the Earth Changes 2003 Almanac Calendar.

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HOUSE-KEEPING NOTE:

The Earth Monitor pages are being torn up and restructured at the current time. They are still there but are beginning to take on a complete different structure. I am attempting to turn the Earth Monitor title page into almost nothing but an integrated menu tree, which will summarize menus which are more richly developed on separate topic pages. This process will be going on for awhile. In the meanwhile, you may occasionally notice some strange duplications or weird disappearances. If anyone has any suggestions about evolving these pages, now is a good time as I devote a few minutes each day to revising menus and adding new links.

POLAR MOTION
What is happening to the motion of the Earth.

At the current time the X Wave in Chandler’s Wobble is nearly at its annual MIN and is about to head toward the last annual MAX in this current 6.5 year cycle of Chandler’s Wobble. This annual MAX should be achieved in about October of this year and it also will define the MAX for this entire current cycle.

AS REPORTED LAST SEVERAL WEEKS: Steady as she goes. As reported for the past few months, the current track of Chandler’s Wobble (the observed locations of the spin axis at the North Pole) continues to show an acceleration in the shifting of the average location of the spin axis. The recent acceleration may be in the approximate range of 6.5%. FOR A DESCRIPTION OF THIS DISPLACEMENT, SEE THE EARTH CHANGES BULLETIN OF NOVEMBER 13, 2002.

For additional current details: see http://www.michaelmandeville.com/ebooks/calendar2003/currentconditions.htm#polarmotion

FOR NEWBIES: The vortex tectonics paradigm of the earth holds that polar motion in the 6.5 year wobble cycle (Chandler’s) creates the major stress in the Earth’s crust which is released by lunar tidal forces each month in the form of earthquakes and volcanism. The acceleration in the motion of the drift of the poles and its relocation forces an increasing tempo in the shape shifting of the Equatorial zone, where 70% of tectonic activity occurs. Accordingly, earthquakes and volcanic activity should increase in frequency and magnitude.

PLANETS

The Moon this day is centered in its North Node about as far as it gets heading into a long Full Moon In Perigee Syzygy which begins in two days and lasts through to the 20th. The Full Moon is on Feb 16 and the Perigee (its closest distance from the Earth during its 28 day orbit) is on Feb 19.

Seismic activity should be modestly high for an extended period and should be higher in frequency and magnitude than the last Full Moon.

The next planetary alignment will be on February 24 between Venus | Mars. Expect solar weather and sunspots now to remain low through to about February 20, diminishing even lower that it is at present for the next 14 days.

AS PREVIOUSLY REPORTED: Venus is so bright that you can see it now and for another month or so in broad daylight well after dawn. Venus is steadily moving away from the Earth so it will gradually fade until it can only be seen before dawn. To find it just look to the East. You cannot miss it but because it is so bright you might mistake it for a UFO or an airliner with landing lights on.

See Earth Changes 2003 Almanac Calendar for additional details
http://www.michaelmandeville.com/ebooks/calendar2003/
The Almanac lays out the entire year in advance to allow you to find the best and worst periods of weather.

SUNSPOTS
The events in the solar atmosphere which impact weather and climate patterns, the magnetic field and auroras, including forecasts for the week, month, and year ahead.

OOPS. The worst may be over but we can still get sucker-punched. We had another big rollercoaster peak on the 9th. Sunspots shot up from about 60 to 195. This was for the Mercury | Mars alignment (with Venus is close association of about 2-3 degrees. This peak came three to four days after the alignment and caught me totally by surprise.

This should not repeat for a good while and so most of the rides are indeed nearly over as Sunspot Cycle 23 glides slowly towards the exit in the Cosmic Amusement Park. But this strong interaction between Mercury and Mars this month does not bode well for the Mercury | Earth | Mars in early September. Late August and a good part of September should be very perturbed indeed. I hope no space shuttles are scheduled to take off or land at that time.

Sunspot number for February 11 was 135, falling rapidly. It will probably plunge to at least 60 and remain in that range until about February 18, whence it will begin to climb for the February 24 Venus | Mars. Numbers for that alignment should shoot up well past 100 and induce another major but short-lived impetus for stormy activity in the Earth’s atmosphere.

Jan Alvestad reports: “The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled on February 12-14. A coronal stream will likely reach Earth on February 15 and could cause unsettled to minor storm conditions until February 21, isolated major storm conditions are possible during the early phase. Long distance medium wave (AM) band propagation along east-west paths over high and upper middle latitudes is very poor, propagation along north-south paths is fair.” See http://www.dxlc.com/solar/

AS PREVIOUSLY PREDICTED: However, the planetary alignments in mid August, the Mars | Earth alignment in late August, and the flyby of this alignment by Mercury on September 10 will probably bring a succession of curtain calls. Even when the average monthly sunspot count is below 50 during a quiescent phase of the Sunspot Cycles, planetary alignments sometimes send daily counts up into the range of 200. This is sure to happen in August and September of this year. This peaks will cut of the normal summer monsoon pattern for those areas which are in dire need of a wet summer.

At the moment the Fluxgate Monitor at the U of Alaska shows a few modest magnetic disturbances during the past 24 hours in the Earth’s Atmosphere. Today’s Solar Wind Speed is a modest 371.0 km/s pushing a high density of 7.3 protons/cm. NASA reports a very slow probability of Solar storms, explosions, and new flares. But NASA also advises: “High latitude sky watchers should be alert for auroras on February 15th and 16th. That's when Earth will likely encounter a solar wind stream flowing from a coronal hole on the Sun.”

AS PREDICTED PREVIOUSLY: Continue to expect anything with this Solar Cycle 23, but, despite the current escalations in sunspot counts, I think that the peak is nearly done. By mid February I expect sunspot counts to stay in the under 80 range most of the time, except for the Earth | Mars alignment in August and September, and slowly fade away throughout the remainder of the year. Peaks above 100 will occur during each of the planetary alignments and they may well soar very high once again during August and September.

To follow these numbers, view the Solar Cycle 23 Chart at

http://www.michaelmandeville.com/earthmonitor/topten_monitor.htm

GLOBAL DROUGHT AND FLOOD WATCH
Stories and assessments about drought and flood conditions around the world; global information which provides the ability to assess the impacts to agriculture and the natural environment.

Our weather patterns are beginning to normalize here and there and indeed a tremendous rainstorm is now flowing into the Southwestern U.S. over the Gulf of California. Rain has begun and typical winter rainstorms, which has been awfully scarce the past two years, are scattered through a broad expanse.

This indicates that the jetstream is relaxed enough, despite the high sunspot peak for a few days, to permit this more normal flow in the atmosphere. Some disruption is likely to be felt however in about two or three days as a consequence of the last peak. But it should be of fairly short duration. At the end of February, the atmosphere is likely to be pushed into extremes once again by the Venus | Mars alignment on Feb. 24.

AS PREVIOUSLY PREDICTED, IT MUST STAND, for the American Southwest, the winter rain has already been lost for the most part. The drought will likely continue on through to July. West Coast weathermen are still vainly hoping the “mythical” El Nino will bring them rain. Little do they know.

AS PREVIOUSLY PREDICTED (REVISED): Drought prone areas in the lower latitudes will see less rain than normal. Summer monsoons may be late and will be ended sooner than normal by the planetary alignments which begin in mid-August, most especially by the Mars | Earth alignment at the end of August.

For additional details, see
http://www.michaelmandeville.com/ebooks/calendar2003

EL NINO WATCH:

The decline continues.

REPEATED FROM LAST WEEK: THE GOOD NEWS CONTINUES!!!

AS PREDICTED HERE AND NO WHERE ELSE, the El Nino syndrome along the equator is almost gone. The upsurge in warm water (above average in the range of 8 degrees F.) along a very wide expanse of the Equator in the Pacific peaked in early November and now is only a small of fraction of what it was. As of 20 days ago, the El Nino “patch” on the Equator is about the size of the Island of Borneo and is centered at Longitude West 170. During the last three weeks, the warm water patch declined slightly more size in size and in overall temperature. The El Nino Weather Syndrome is probably irreversibly gone for this year.

To view the latest water temperatures in the Pacific, go to the animated graph at NOAA’s weather center. It runs through the changing temperature of the surface of the ocean every two weeks for the past year. You can watch the late developing El Nino water (shown in red and orange) quickly break up and shrivel into the Borneo-sized patch.
http://www.cdc.noaa.gov/map/clim/sst_olr/sst_animated.gif

CHEMTRAILS
See http://www.deepspace4.com/pages/main/pagemain.htm

I am giving up looking for a volunteer to write a weekly update paragraph on Chemtrail activity and politics….

EARTHQUAKES
Around the world to see the current and potential patterns of seismic activity, with coverage of the windows of danger.

I prepared this section by pulling out the Earth Changes 2003 Calendar which has everything plotted on it. You should too. Check out the Almanac as well, it discusses all of the windows for the year and even spotlights the two most dangerous windows.

At the moment quake activity is nearly normal and widely scattered. The next big quake danger zone will appear February 14 as the Full Moon In Perigee Syzygy. Perigee = the Moon’s closest approach to the Earth during its monthly orbit which increases gravitational influence of the Moon by as much as 15%).

After a tepid New Moon Syzygy, frequency finally shot up for a couple of days and ended on last Thursday, February 6, 2003, outside all comic influence windows. This WAS ONE DAY BEFORE THE APOGEE. Interesting. Go figure.

There is no obvious pattern at play currently, except to note that quakes are appearing more in groups. When a quake strikes in California, or Alaska, or elsewhere, there tends to be at least a few, if not several. This grouping tends to repeat itself through a couple of days.

This sort of pattern has always been seen, but it SEEMS like there is more of this grouping than every before.

Currently, as of yesterday and today, Japan and Alaska on the North Arc of the Pacific Rim are getting battered with repeating quakes, especially Alaska…where you are never all that far away from a truly large quake. Previously, California hosted more “groups” of quakes.

The USGS chart (such charts show all quakes 1.0 and above) for the U.S. and Alaska show 551 quakes for the past seven days (which is down only 42 from last week’s 593) with the USGS chart for California showing 294 of these in California during the past seven days (down from last week’s 324), which is about right for a-non syzygy window. The USGS Chart for the Pacific Northwest reveals 32 quakes (two week sum, up from 20 micro quakes last week) mostly widely scattered throughout Washington State.

Hood was completely silent but the USGS chart for Long Valley Cauldera (Area) shows a running total of 13 for the past week (down from 19 small quakes running total last week), typically in the range of 1.0 in magnitude, while the USGS Chart of Yellowstone Cauldera Area shows 86 small quakes during the last week (another increase, up from the 66 recorded during the prior week) and 26 quakes scattered throughout Utah (down from 31 during the prior week).

FULL MOON WATCH ON COLIMA – POPO – COOS BAY – SAN ANDREAS
REMEMBER THE COSTA NOSTRA DAMUS PREDICTION: We will watch Coos Bay, San Andreas, Colima, Popo, very carefully. Let us watch as well for a pattern of increase during the succeeding Full Moon Perigee Syzygies. Centered near the middle of the month for February, March, April, and May, the Full Moon and Perigee draw tighter together to be virtually dead on in April, then start to draw apart. Their mutual influence should combine exponentially, not linearly. Along about the middle of April, we can expect the worst quake season which has been felt in many months. See the Earth Changes 2003 Almanac Calendar for timing details.

VOLCANOES
Around the world with the most interesting and relevant volcano stories; briefs on the likely eruptions as well as coverage of on-going activity.

Hood is sound asleep and contrarian El Popo was yesterday up to a 17 puff day. Centrapred reports for February 11 (16:00 GMT) that “In the last 24 hours, the Popocatepetl volcano activity remained in a steady level. There were 17 small to moderate exhalations accompanied by steam, gas and some of them with small amounts of ash. The other monitored parameters remain without important changes. During this morning a small steam and gas emission has been observed. (see image). The activity reported in the last days is related with the partial destruction of the lava dome inside the crater previously reported (see image). As long as there are remains of the dome, there is a probability of explosive activity with ash emissions and incandescent material ejections around the crater.”

The Southwest Volcano Centre reports 38 volcanoes on the alert status list (UP three from last week), 5 volcanoes on the restless list (UP one from last week), and 25 on the active eruption list (UP one from last week) with 6 activity change updates posted for the latter during the last few days.

It would seem that volcanic activity overall is definitely up slightly this week. New photos are on the web which shows the most recent upsurge of lava flows for Etna, Kilauea, and Stromboli. Check them out at http://www.swvrc.org/cerupt.htm

AS REPORTED LAST WEEK: Some geo-scientists were expecting Piton de la Fournaise in the Indian Ocean to repeat its typical winter eruption cycle by erupting this past month. These geo-scientists were predicting its eruption as part of an attempt to study the seasonal rhythms of volcanic activity. This no-show will disappoint their beautiful paradigm (which ties into the vortex tectonics theory, so I am wishing them success). But the Full Moon in mid-February still offers hope.

AG INDUSTRY WATCH
Because of the high load of stress which the current peak in the sunspots have placed on the Ag industry, we alert on the changing scene in agriculture and how these are likely to effect the broader economy.

AS PREDICTED LAST WEEK: I believe that the drought is now ending and that this ending will be apparent by March. BUT, drought conditions are likely to return in August during the Mars | Earth alignment and persist for perhaps several weeks, perhaps late into September. This will not provide crop relief for farmers in the Southern Hemisphere. The drought will not end for them until the growing season is over.

ECONOMIC WATCH

AS PREVIOUSLY PREDICTED: It is doubtful that any economic recovery will begin to be felt until much later in the year, probably not until Fall of 2003. The recent 400 to 500 point dip in the DJI is directly a result of the current uncertainties over war jitters and the lack of any concord in the U.S. about how to end the recession. War jitters cause international sources to continue to draw down their U.S. inventories of cash and securities in favor of Euros. Consider this a tax on international confidence imposed by the stubbornness of the Imperial Party which continues to perpetuate our position at the edge of the precipice. So long as these huge uncertainties continue, there will be no sign of economic recovery.

Stocks will close this week in the range of 7700-7900

If a war begins, the stocks will quickly rebound up towards 8900, but don’t get fooled. This rebound will be too fast and the DJI will spend many more months swamping around in the low to mid 8000’s. A fundamental shift in the economy has to be felt before stocks begin to ride the next Bull.

I am going to watch how close the arbitrager for Ditech.com calls it. I am placing a bet on their interest rate calculations, which are so finely chiseled, they have to be running pretty sophisticated indicator stats. When they clearly go up at least two pegs within a month, even if they are just very small increments, you will know there is wind in the sails of the economy.

GEO-POLITICAL WATCH
How the sunspots are likely to most effect human affairs during the weeks and months ahead?

SIGN OF THE TIMES: Ken Lay, just a good ole boy Texan, the Presiding Officer of the rape of California Consumers, otherwise known as Enron, is still scott free with his crooked billions…But the Enron Wicked Web of greed and gross and egregious “taking advantage of everyone” is beginning to unravel. Another of the Enron crooks was indicted and another one will be shortly. Enron is now suing Ken Lay directly for the return of some money, 2003 should be a great year for a continuing soap opera of scandalous corporate news.

Or maybe not. Maybe America’s hot adventure news show, “The Empire Strikes Back”, will keep the corporate scandals under the rug.

AS PREVIOUSLY ENCOURAGED, if you have never read 1984, now is the time. AND HOW. All the strategies and techniques of Hitler’s and Goebbels’ agitprop and disinformation technology is currently being employed everyday in massive doses against YOU. You had best wake up to how the mantras work. Check out the Media Lens organization. They are providing some really good wake up antidote. http://www.medialens.org

Whatever you do, ignore the polls. They are consciously designed and used to lead you into concluding that YOU need to change your opinion or feelings and conform to someone else’s. THEY DO NOT EXIST FOR ANY OTHER REASON, THOSE WHO PAY FOR THEM ARE STRUCTURING AND RELEASING THEM IN WAYS TO MANIPULATE YOU, NOT TO INFORM YOU.

BUT – if you have the opportunity to cast a vote in a media poll, for goodness sakes get the computer mouse squeaking.

Do you remember the headline news for Last Wednesday?

“Colin Powell displays evidence which shows that Saddam Hussein’s forces are evading the U.N. weapons inspectors and are hiding weapons. Powell calls for militant action to deal with this crisis of confidence. The French Ambassador to the U.N. agrees that this is a serious problem and proposes a vastly expanded high-tech monitoring program with a fleet of Mirage 4 Jets to fly over Iraq on a daily basis to catch the evaders. Russia agrees and volunteers to send planes and inspectors as well.”

I wrote that. That was the essence of the U.N. Security Council news at that moment.

The key factor at play currently is the enormous reaction at work in Europe, especially in Britain. Since last Wednesday, huge controversies and disputes have broken out in Europe. Rumsfield and his minions, sticking a platoon of feet in mouth, promptly roiled up the controversy even more by insulting the “holdouts” of “old Europe” who are “blocking” the war on terror. Though American officials are not saying so, they are now beginning to get the picture that France, Germany, and Belgium are now preparing to flesh out the details of a vastly expanded inspection program. This in some circles is being described partially as in the nature of a “ U.N. peacekeeping force” with which the Euros intend to use to keep a unilateral U.S. invasion at bay.

The American Mass Broadcast Media hasn’t quite figured it out, but I predicted this ploy last October.

So, on both sides there is MUCH MORE going on than is apparent. Though the Bush Administration keeps proclaiming that the issue is Saddam Hussein’s cheating ways, in Europe the issue is George Bush’s cowboy manners and strong tendencies to tell tall tales. The exceptionally rude manner in which Bush administration officials are literally pushing Europeans to snap-to in following American-made orders has sent European group consciousness into a state of shock. A massive wall of emotional reactivity is being generated against American policies.

Americans forget that Britain, France, Germany, and Russia were once Imperial powers and all of them made many desolations upon the Earth. Aside from the Americans in Vietnam, the most recent peoples to make many hideous mistakes in the use of power were the Germans and the Russians. Accordingly, these people have the strongest sensitivities to the issues of power and force. The group consciousness of these peoples want at all cost to avoid the painful mistakes of the past. They want justifiably at all costs to avoid violence. It is astonishing that America politicians would publicly insult these peoples for being “hold outs” against the use of international violence. It is like laughing at an alcoholic at an AA meeting who is afraid to take a drink. YOU JUST DON’T DO THAT unless you WANT to be shown the door..

They damn well don’t want to take a drink and that is about right in the scheme of things. The inevitable consequence is that these peoples are becoming extremely distrustful of U.S. politicians. This reaction wave will take years to play itself out….The damage created by America’s neo-conservative yuppie class is incalculable.

As well, thinking Brits, both the right and the left, have begun to pummel the Blair/Bush/Powell agitprop lines with nearly complete abandon. The analysis of the Blair/Bush positions, logic, and so-called information which is now appearing in portions of the British Press is extremely good, is hard hitting, and is providing the meat for an objective grasp of what is being done. Plenty of articles are appearing which rebuts every slight nuance of misinformation and dissembling by British and American politicians. Perhaps for the first time since the cold war began some 50 years ago, the illusions which politicians typically paint and manipulate in their statements about international affairs are being fully penetrated and explored in truly exhausting detail. If you like to read and you like international politics, now is a great time to be alive.

In effect, the Brits are currently being subjected to the opposite of the massive “fear the terrorists and war in Iraq is inevitable” agit-prop which is saturation bombing every TV set in America. In the short term, the stability of Great Britain is becoming increasingly unhinged. The British left has not been so mobilized in decades. They have gone from politely strained and vigorous debate with Blair last summer to a state of total rage at the imperialism they see implicit in Bush’s unseemly push into Baghdad. Blair is now being pilloried every day in the press, every word he utters is being dissected, British media are publicly calling and documenting Bush, Powell, and Blair as out and out liars who have no credibility. A vigorous anti-war campaign is being organized.

Given this vociferous activity and a strong, very large unfavorable rating in the public mind, it is difficult to see how the Blair government can continue to stand. It seems to be dissolving more and more each day and one would think that eventually the end of the line, within weeks. will be a tumultuous session of Parliament which forces Blair’s capitulation. In this sense the tide of time seems to be against war in Iraq.

Having proven to themselves and to more than a small portion of the American public that Powell’s so-called proof of why the world should go to war is embarrassingly sophomoric, it will be interesting to see how British critics react to the spurious and false claims made today, by the Defense Secretary’s of both Britain and the U.S., that Bin Laden’s latest audio tape proves that Bin Laden and Saddam Hussein are linked together in mutual conspiracy to use Saddam’s weapons of mass destruction to attack America. This astoundingly bizarre claim I am quite certain will further radicalize the growing polarization.

For those who have not heard or read the tape’s transcript, the tape condemns Iraq’s “socialist” government under Hussein and advocates the overthrow of these “infidils”, but the tape also nonetheless urges Muslims to defend Islamic Iraq against American Imperialism. Osama makes it clear that there is no harm in his Islamic followers in Iraq fighting side by side the socialist infidels to resist an American invasion. He calls it a duty.

From this we are to suppose, according to Rumsfield, that this clearly links Al Qaeda operations with Hussein’s weapons of mass destruction, all the more reason for American’s to overthrow Saddam Hussein. I think it takes an IQ of about 80 to accept this set of contradictions without blinking an eye.

I think it far more likely that the obvious is perfectly obvious, that Osama Bin Laden has just linked the timing of the next wave of terrorist acts, including suicide attacks which he specifically mentioned, with a U.S. invasion of Iraq. In other words, he has just “set the watch on a common calendar” for all of his quasi-independent cells around the world.

It is credibility which has become the fundamental issue. Based on the emotional manipulations, empty rhetoric, and highly questionable credibility which has been offered up by the Blair-Bush Axis, more and more people cannot come to terms with the idea of large numbers of troops tromping WITH *REAL* WEAPONS OF MASS DESTRUCTION through the homes of some twenty million human beings to terminate the power of one deranged tyrant whom no one wants. In other words, in the Dr. Strangelove minds of Bush and Rumsfield, it is perfectly legitimate to terrorize twenty million people with highly explosive WEAPONS OF MASS DESTRUCTION on the oft chance that some noxious biological or chemical agents will be found stashed in a bunker and a genuine torture expert can be found and hung from a lamp-post.

There absolutely must be a more effective solution. Or, is the human species really that incompetently stupid? If so, does ANYTHING matter?

At this point in time, the credibility issue is profoundly deep and is probably beyond remediation. Enough time has passed to be able to assess the track record of the “War-Time President”. It is not pretty. On the continent, the French and the Germans, both of whom have direct involvement in Afghanistan and know full well what the Bush administration has and has not done there, have become quite hardened in their distrust of “promises” and representations made by the Bush administration.

From the Euro perspective, the Bush administration simply does not deliver the goods. It tells tall tales and then splits town. Bush has not supplied the money to the American states for homeland defense, Bush has not provided sufficient security and assistance in Afghanistan to enable democratic control o the country and abolishment of the drug trade, Bush has left Pakistan high and dry on aid it was promised to join the war on terrorism, Bush did not provide as promised any action to set up the next Palestinian International Peace Conference.

And so on. If you promise the Moon to everyone and consistently fail to deliver, eventually they all start calling you a crook and throwing rocks every time you show up. The Brits have started and it wont take the others long. In this sense as well, time is against the war in Iraq.

In other words, the issue is not whether Saddam Hussein needs to go and that something should be done to make it so. The whole world agrees on this point. No one needs to be convinced of this point. The REAL issue is, AND HERE IS WHERE THE EMPEROR WALKS NAKED IN HIS DESIGNER IMPERIAL ROBES, George Walker Bush, by pushing the BS lines of his right-wing cronies, has developed a credibility which is about on par with the legendary smooth-talking Texas Swindlers, the latest of which WAS, Key Lay, the Texan CEO of the Texan company, ENRON, the company which engineered the phoney energy crisis which took Californian consumers for several billion dollars in overcharges. Ken Lay is a good friend of George Bush, so says George Bush.

Tall tales told by Texans became famous for a reason. They in fact tell tall tales down there. LBJ, the last President from Texas, didn’t blink at declaring that the North Vietnamese had fired at an American Destroyer (a complete fabrication) to justify sending another 50,000 troops to Vietnam.

Is it in the water? Does Bush have an incurable case of it?

Bush has been scored, flunked, and the greater portion of Europe DOES NOT WANT TO FOLLOW HIS LEADERSHIP. It will be very hard to recover from this fatal position.

The real problem is that there is little doubt that an American Axis is in the government, a right wing cabal if you will, perhaps justifiably labeled an Imperial Faction, which is known to compose Cheney, Rumsfield, Rice, Bush, Ashford, and their immediate assistants and aides, plus many Senators and a large number of military-industry think tanks and corporate interests. Quite obviously major interests in the AOL-TIME-WARNER empire are strongly connected with this faction, how else to explain the loud, crude, tinny, incessent war drumming they are piping out on TV?

The Imperial Faction is determined as a matter of self-created policy to extend American domination over the Middle East, a fact which is well documented.. They have chosen the elimination of Saddam Hussein to create both the perception and reality of their brave new world of America The Dominant. If they can pull this off, they will have elevated the American Presidency to the status of an Imperial Proconsul, able to act practically anywhere in the undefended third world with little but lip service to the niceties of the U.S. constitution and the moral imperatives of the U.N. Charter.

But there is a problem for this Faction. It is unlikely that this policy can survive a collapse of Blair’s parliamentary majority during the next few weeks. The reversal of the policy of the British government would raise severe questioning in the U.S. and in other countries. Suddenly, the French proposals would look more and more attractive and would command the momentum of affairs. The Imperial Faction would be unable to continue its push for at least several months.

Accordingly, there may be a grave risk of a sudden, sneaky, preemptive attack during the early part of March. Osama Bin Laden may set the trap he has been preparing for the last decade by encouraging the Bush Faction to take this unilateral step. He may provide the U.S. with a “Maine”, with an incident which has an ambiguous Iraqi signature.

Beware therefore the New Moon in March.

Most likely the only thing which can disrupt this juggernaut is fast action and lots of it.

Here is the possible picture. Consultations with the spirit realms through a number of people I respect leads to the pessimistic report that a war is likely. This war is expected to achieve its result in a short period of time, as advertised. But thereafter, things go to hell. Huge riots are foreseen in major cities (probably Middle Eastern countries), civil disobedience in European and American cities, scores of terrorist attacks, and Iraq becomes over the months a huge international quagmire of factions, claims of independence of several groups and territories, and tens of billions of dollars become necessary to bail out a defunct Iraq economy. Naturally the Texas Swindler may try to skip town and leave the tab to the United Nations or NATO.

Spirit sources advise that only massive demonstration of support for the French proposal will stop this juggernaut. A massive email campaign could help trigger support for the French proposal.

It is a rare opportunity and a simple proposition, to make world democracy work. The French have stood up in the U.N. and have taken the idea of a world democratic order seriously. They have made a serious proposal and wish the world to democratically decide how the world should collectively deal with the problems created by Saddam Hussein, without resort to violence. How could any sane mind sneer at such an effort and refuse to consider it? Let us insist that it be taken up and examined.

Naturally, the American right wing, in exactly the same rude, negative, bellicose, lying ways it defames all American public officials and candidates it opposes, is now using the same psychological responses and ploys against France and Germany collectively and against their major statesmen individually. Watch as this plays out and continues to increase world polarization against the Bush Administration.

As peacemakers, and restorers of American credibility, we can individually urge everyone to take up the French proposals. In every way possible. More on this in a separate post. For moment, I conclude with the basic logic of this approach below.

AS STATED LAST WEEK, a reasonably centrist Democrat, Diane Feinstein from California, seems to have boiled down the entire international debate in a few pithy lines which are good enough and reasonable enough to carry the day forward on a reasonable basis. She observes that Saddam Hussein is a “WORLD PROBLEM” and she notes that virtually the entire world (outside of the hawks in the Bush Administration and the Republican ranks) wants Saddam and his disarmament dealt with as a WORLD SOLUTION, imposed by and through the U.N. – NOT the U.S

With what the French are proposing, NO WAR IS NECESSARY TO DISARM IRAQ. IF WEAPONS OF MASS DESTRUCTION ARE FOUND IN IRAQ, THEY ARE EASILY DESTROYED. The French propose more searching, more constant surveillance on the ground and in the air, more active total intrusion with a greatly expanded number of people on the ground in Iraq. Eventually, more of those evils goods probably will get caught and certainly the atomic threat will be impossible to implement.

The more the U.S. Imperial Faction presses its case, the more it seems to alienate the world against the American plan. At the moment it seems that the world will favor the French lead. But time is of OVER-RIDING ESSENCE. Events may spiral out of control from manipulations by dark forces. Let us hope and pray that Bush, who does have redeeming virtues, can be led to Diane Feinstein’s and France’s definition of the issue: this is a world problem and only the people of the world as a unity, in combination with the Arab and Muslim peoples, can deal legitimately and soundly with this issue. If seriously undertaken, with the precision of war planning, an intensive surveillance strategy has good odds of success.

EarthMonitor