You have heard of the Weather Report? Here exclusively is this week’s "Earth Report" - a short review of the “big picture” about how the dynamic changes in the Sun and the Earth are effecting our lives more and more intensely, with the latest prognostications and predictions for weathermen, farmers, investors, businessmen, and every man.

This update is keyed to the Earth Changes 2003 Almanac Calendar. The framework for understanding these updates and much of the current status information is maintained in capsule form in the Almanac at the locations cited in the text of this Update.

On the geophysical front, the Tectonic Gods are still sleeping but, WOW, sunspots were 220 yesterday as Mercury approaches Earth with a huge number of sunspots, explosions, and solar wind storms in tow. Duck, they are all around us right now. Keep your umbrella handy, make sure your galoshes and raincoat are ready to wear, major storms should appear by the end of the first of May and floods sometime in the second week for the more Northerly areas, but the Southwest won’t see an drop of it as droughtlike conditions return for a few weeks.

For the geopolitical front, everyone seems to be re-calibrating as institutional attention begins to turn once again more directly onto the economy. Meanwhile, huge political changes in all directions are being plotted in living rooms and bars all around the world. The gap between the Mass Broadcast Media and the rest of the world continues to accelerate as hundreds of millions of people in countries around the world realize they have been taken to the cleaners by crooks who have crassly manipulated the broadcast media.
_____________________________________________________________________
Program Thesis: What are we trying to do with the Earth Changes Bulletin?

Most news media do not handle technical and scientific subjects like geology and earth sciences very well. They don't understand the causes and effects of activities in the Sun and Earth. Accordingly, they often do not understand if, when, how, why to report earthquakes, volcanic activity, global warming effects The treatment often sounds absent-minded, poorly qualified, and frequently contains various technical errors. Seldom is the treatment entertaining and genuinely educational.

Based on new scientific principles which have emerged during the past thirty years, many of the dynamic activities of the Sun and Earth can be linked together to see how a range of effects are linked together. This makes it possible to paint "the big picture" into a perspective which explains many diverse events and processes, especially climate and weather patterns such as global warming and El Nino. From the "big picture", long range predictions can be made for weeks and even months ahead.

The result is sophisticated cutting-edge information which is objective, balanced, astute, relevant, and can be easily seen and appreciated by lay audiences. The perspective is generally global, seldom parochial.

For the framework of concepts, terms, and current conditions which are used or described in the these Bulletins, see the Earth Changes 2003 Almanac Calendar.

To see the internet resources which are used to prepare this Update, take a look at the Earth Monitor front page
http://www.michaelmandeville.com/earthmonitor
If anyone has any suggestions about evolving these pages, now is a good time as I devote a few minutes each day to revising menus and adding new links.


HOUSEKEEPING:

Alex Merklinger (and me on Wednesday nites) are currently off the air while “Mysteries of the Mind” seeks a new venue. This we hope could happen any time. Sorry about the cancellation of last night’s show. Technical difficulties knocked Lou Gentile off the air. The next available slot may be sometime in June.

INTERNET WATCH:

All appears to be well. Anybody have a clue about the increase in spam email?
Apparently, from recent announcements in the press, the high tech industry is going to have a go at trying to create more barriers against spam. I think eliminating spam is like eliminating the little Chuckie horror doll by dissolving him in acid, only to find him popping out later yelling “I’m baaaack” meaner and nastier than before. I think that will be a never ending process of erecting new barriers which only work for a while to reduce the load while it slowly builds back up again.

The most effective means to radically reduce it for quite a while would be to simply make the buying, selling, or leasing of lists of email addresses illegal. That would include the paying or acceptance of a fee for “the service” of sending out email to some third party collected list of email addresses. They would have to be your own email addresses from your own list which people had subscribed to, such as this one. That would trash the commercial spam industry and it would take years for corrupters to find ways around it.

The easiest way to do it is through ISP blockage of the routers. As soon as an email server was found by competent authority to be sending illegal email, the network of routers in the backbone would simply delist the server’s internet address and refuse to accept all posts and all requests from such servers.

POLAR MOTION
What is happening to the motion of the Earth.

Steady as she goes. Despite many alarm bells being passed by psychics, there is not even a hint at the moment in the actual motion of the pole to suggest that there is going to be a sudden shifting in the poles next month (May) or some time later in this year.

I FRANKLY ADVISE YOU TO IGNORE ALL PLANET X HYSTERIA MONGERING AND ALL OTHER PSYCHIC PREDICTIONS OF A SHIFTING OF THE POLES, BOTH THE SPIN AXIS POLES AND THE MAGNETIC POLES, DURING THIS YEAR. THERE IS NOTHING WHICH IS NEARLY ANOMALOUS ENOUGH IN THE REAL WORLD TO BETRAY ANY SERIOUS PRECURSORS IN THE EARTH’S CRUST.

Any such event is going to have a long period of inertia breaking and the precursor signals will be loud and really obvious. Consider the 4.8 quake in Alabama recently as a good example. It came only a few days after several small quakes (3..0-4.0) in the Mid Atlantic Rift between North America and Europe. During a shifting of the poles, there will be thousands of such quakes grinding continuously along the whole length of the Oceanic Rift. That means what you think it means. Major portions of North America will quake nearly continuously. This process will start slow and build over a period of many weeks if not months. Prior to that, at least a full year prior to that, we will find that random tectonic activity has escalated way beyond the chart levels shown on the Vortex Tectonics web pages and in Book Three: The Prophecies. We will ABSOLUTELY KNOW FOR CERTAIN THAT A BIG CHANGE IS COOKING AND WE WON’T HAVE TO WORRY ABOUT IT ALL HAPPENING SUDDENLY NEXT MONTH.

I don’t believe we will ever know the exact moment when “the thief in the night” finally comes. But we will definitely know when we are in danger of that happening. We are not there yet and I am quite certain we are at least a year away from such a time.

THAT IS WHY THIS EARTH MONITOR WEBSITE EXISTS AND WHY I COUNT EARTHQUAKES AND LOOK AT THEIR PATTERNS EACH WEEK.

SHOUTING EVEN LOUDER, I WANT YOU NEWBIES TO UNDERSTAND THAT WE DON’T NEED ANY MORE CHANNELING INFORMATION ABOUT IT. IT HAS ALL BEEN SAID. WE SIMPLY NEED TO WATCH AND LOOK FOR THE SIGNS IN THE EARTH. IN THE EARTH. IN THE EARTH. IN THE EARTH.

COME WATCH AND LOOK WITH US HERE. INVITE ALL OF YOUR FRIENDS. THIS NEWSLETTER IS FREE AND WILL REMAIN SO, subscribed to purely on a donation basis.

P.S. – Psychics often time pick up shock waves of momentous things about to happen in the social world. The many “May” predictions about earth changes may be related to geopolitical events, not geophysical events. Later in May would be good timing for another round of terrorism from Al Qaeda to disrupt the new Palestinian peace process and catalyze an increase in unrest in Iraq and other places to diminish recent U.S. successes. This is far more likely than anything geophysical or events from space. In fact, some psychic sensitives are quite fearful of terrorist attacks in June this year. It was for this reason that I posted Justin Whiten’s prediction last week. He believes that he picked up Earth events related to a pole shift, I am supposing, by looking at a lot of psychic material which is sent to me, that he is picking up a rather dramatic and traumatic terrorist activity within the time range he defined. We shall see, doesn’t matter who is right or wrong, we will all learn a lot.

FROM PREVIOUS WEEKS: There is still developing what appears to be solid evidence that the drift in the average location of the spin axis has or is still accelerating, but yet still at a glacial rate of speed. The next three months will show a lot about this as the current spiraling motion rounds the Y Axis and begins to flow the opposite way. If it crosses the lines of the last two spiral sweeps of the axis on this quadrant of the Earth, heading out further away from its average center point, we can be quite certain that a substantial relative acceleration has or is still occurring.

AS PREVIOUSLY REPORTED: The position of the pole is now headed toward the last annual MAX in this current 6.5 year cycle of Chandler’s Wobble. This annual MAX should be achieved about the beginning of October of this year. This MAX will define the MAX for this entire current cycle. When this 6.5 year MAX point is achieved, the average location of the North Spin Axis can be computed and thus the current rate of shifting in the location of the wobbling pole can also be computed by comparison with the previous cycles.

REPEATED: PRELIMINARY FIGURE FOR RECENT DISPLACEMENT: This is a preliminary indication which needs more work: the average location of the pole appears to have shifted possibly as much as 91.1 inches or 231.5 centimeters since the beginning of 1996. That implies an average rate of shifting of the poles since 1996 of 13 inches/yr. or 33 centimeters/year. This rate is substantially higher than it has been during most of the 20th century. What the rate of acceleration may be I cannot determine at the current time. Is the crust of the Earth currently slipping over the molten mantle at a faster rate? Probably yes.

To see the current graph of polar motion, see
http://www.michaelmandeville.com/earthmonitor/topten_monitor.htm
Scroll down the page until you get to the black and white graphs with show the x and y coordinates of the North Spin Axis on two separate graphs.

For additional current details: see http://www.michaelmandeville.com/ebooks/calendar2003/
currentconditions.htm#polarmotion
(watch the word wrap of this and other URLs, you may have to paste part of it into your browser manually)

FOR NEWBIES: The vortex tectonics paradigm of the earth holds that polar motion in the 6.5 year wobble cycle (Chandler’s) creates the major stress in the Earth’s crust which is released by lunar tidal forces each month in the form of earthquakes and volcanism. The acceleration in the motion of the drift of the poles and its relocation forces an increasing tempo in the shape shifting of the Equatorial zone, where 70% of tectonic activity occurs. Accordingly, earthquakes and volcanic activity should increase in frequency and magnitude.

PLANETS (all time coordinates here and elsewhere are in UTC)

The Moon this day is in its North Node and is now in the syzygy window for the New Moon on May 1 with Apogee occurring just four hours before Newness. The next Full Moon will be on May 16 with Perigee preceding it by 16 hours. (Perigee = the Moon’s closest approach to the Earth during its monthly orbit which increases gravitational influence of the Moon by as much as 15%; Apogee = the Moon’s greatest distance from the Earth during its monthly orbit).

We are in the middle of two planetary alignments for the New Moon on May 1: Venus | Uranus on April 30 and Mercury | Earth on May 3.

Unlike the previous double header alignments, sunspots soared up to 200 and this is sure to create a massive wave of new storm fronts moving across the continents. To view these alignments on the day of May 1, 2003, click on:

http://www.michaelmandeville.com/earthmonitor/cosmos/planets/
planets2003/planetsall_May1_2003.gif
(watch the word wrap of this and other URLs, you may have to paste part of it into your browser manually)

The next planetary alignment in May will be Mercury | Venus on May 24. This will bring another massive increase in sunspots about three to six days prior and stormy wet weather is sure to follow about four to 12 days after the alignment.

See Earth Changes 2003 Almanac Calendar for additional details
http://www.michaelmandeville.com/ebooks/calendar2003/
The Almanac lays out the planets and the lunar phases for entire year in advance to allow you to find the best and worst periods of weather, earthquake activity, ethereal “lunar” influences, etc.

PLANET WATCHING:

Nibiru is nowhere in sight. All predictions of Planet X and Nibiru have failed
Full Article: http://www.earthchangestv.com/breaking/July2002/28sunspots.htm

Mars: You may now be able to see this at dawn

SUNSPOTS
The events in the solar atmosphere which impact weather and climate patterns, the magnetic field and auroras, including forecasts for the week, month, and year ahead.

WOW.

Sunspots counts soared all the way to 200 on April 28, most likely only two days early for the Venus | Uranus alignment on April 30, much higher than I was expecting. Yesterday they were still climbing to heights unknown past 220, most likely for the Mercury | Earth alignment on May 3.

The solar flux yesterday was at 155, very robust, and still climbing. Thus, as is typical, the sunspot count could continue to climb for another day or two.

GET OUT YOUR UMBRELLAS AND RAIN COATS. The atmosphere began to react strongly yesterday. The wind in Arizona is running high, scattered, and nearly constantly, recurring as well today. There is a lot of high flying moisture headed for the Northerly latitudes, as is typical when the ionic flux from the sunspots expands the atmosphere and drives all of the air flows higher and further to either the North or the South.

Based on the experience of watching the planetary alignments of the past several months, we are now seeing that we are learning quite a bit about how it works. Keep in mind that there is no textbook somewhere which lays out how the planets produce the sunspots and what kind of correlations you can expect. We are on a field trip in the real world taking notes about what we observe and we are beginning to get the picture from which a real science can begin to emerge.

What we know now is that Mercury is by far the most important “gate”. It works just like the first “gate” in an old fashioned electron tube. It’s pull, combined with other planets, creates amazing effects on both the surface of the sun and in the weather which we experience on Earth. No doubt it also effects peoples heads as well, as we have learned from the studies of the 11 year sunspot cycles and the incredible emotional over-reactions of people during especially the last two years..

All of the inner planets (Venus, Mars, and Earth) create pretty strong currents in the solar wind with Mercury and thus pretty big peaks in sunspots. And any of these planets in alignment with the outer planets create some effects some of the time. BUT, not necessarily is it very much of an effect, though sometimes it is. Pluto has virtually no effect that can be seen on graphs. Jupiter usually does. And if the angle of double alignments is around 90 degrees, you might get next to nada, as we saw for the alignments two weeks ago.

That’s a lot to know. With that you can build a database for the past few hundred years and know how to look for meaningful connections. With a more rigorous approach, these generalizations could probably get a lot more precise and from that you could probably learn to predict truly long range forecasts of effects on the weather in greater detail.

What we have been doing here is Weather Sloppycasts, they kind of work most of the time, somewhere, but the details are fairly vague. Without serious professional upgrade into the use of supercomputers, the sloppycasts just can’t get much better. I keep doing them because I am still learning more and more about how the earth systems work by trying to see them “in motion”.

LAST TWO WEEK’S PREDICTION MOSTLY CONFIRMED: “Despite the lack of performance for the current double alignments, the sunspot counts for this next one should be a double pointed peak over 100, up to as high as 190 or so, and this peak should commence about April 20, reach final high about April 26-28, and then precipitously decline into the range of 10 – 30. This alignment should produce sunspot counts well above 100 mainly because it is Mercury aligning with Earth. We shall see.” (given on April 16, 2003)

Well, we are very close, the timing in the prediction was a tad on the early side and the size of the peak was definitely underestimated.

Over all, the sunspot average count for February was 46.4 and for March it rose to 61.5. The number for April should have been lower, below March, according to linear ways of averaging. BUT, according to Jan Alvestad’s software, the averaged international sunspot number has SOARED for April way beyond ALL PREDICTIONS, even mine. The running average today stood at 109, the same as last September, 2002. Since the daily numbers were sill climbing yesterday, the monthly average can only but increase a tad in all probability.

WHAT’S GOING ON? I have no idea. Is it these alignments? I don’t think so. This is a completely anomalous surge in solar output which I have no clue about. Is it a data artifact, a bit of computer indigestion? Could be . I will post update on this in a couple of days. This may be nothing, but it may be a precursor signal of some kind.

PREDICTED LAST WEEK AND UPGRADED THIS WEEK TO SHOUTING LEVEL: Since the sunspot counts are way up, the SOLAR WEATHER will become more CHAOTIC AND EXTREMELY PETULANT AND SO WILL THE EARTH’S WEATHER.

IT ALREADY IS.

As during the same time last week, Solar-induced magnetic fields and flux ARE AGAIN HIGHLY UNSTABLE right now. The Fluxgate Monitor at the U of Alaska showed

SEVERAL

severe magnetic disturbances with about a dozen or so distinct CHOPS during the past 24 hours in the Earth’s Atmosphere. I have never seen so much horizontal disturbance in the chart.

As of this moment, the Solar Wind Speed is a highly robust 651.8 km/s and at this hour but it is pushing a robust density of 4.4 protons/cm.

NASA SOLAR STORM REPORTS

Despite the numbers coming in, NASA’s storm predictions are tepid. The Sun is quite unexpectedly fritzy. M class and X class flares are strong possibilities.

NASA’S AURORA OUTLOOK: “Geomagnetic activity surged for a while on April 28th when Earth glided through a solar wind stream. Northern Lights appeared as far south as Wisconsin: "The most intense portion of the display lasted about an hour," says photographer Carol Lakomiak of Tomahawk, Wisconsin. "I saw red- and green-colored lights, some beams and momentary low curtains. Dominating the display were flickering sheets and flashing patches... it was fascinating to watch." The next promising time for aurora-watching will be on or about May 1st when Earth is expected to encounter another solar wind stream. The moon will be new that night, so even faint auroras should be visible.” See spaceweather.com for more details

Jan Alvestad reports: “A recurrent coronal hole (CH37) in the southern hemisphere was probably in a geoeffective position on April 27. A recurrent coronal hole (CH38) in the southern hemisphere will likely rotate into a geoeffective position on May 2-3.”

If this is true, then Auroras will be great to chase any time for the next few days.

Jan Alvestad predicts: “The geomagnetic field is expected to be unsettled to minor storm on April 30, possibly with a major storm interval, and quiet to active on May 1-2.”
See http://www.dxlc.com/solar/

How about that for a non-committal prediction? I am going to have to study that one in greater detail.

AS PREDICTED LAST WEEK: ABSOLUTELY NO DOUBT THAT solar influences on the Earth’s atmosphere will remain petulant for the next several days, MORE LIKELY DURING THE NEXT TWO WEEKS. As last week brought stormy, tricky, unpredictable sudden fluctuations in the weather in many ways, EXPECT THE SAME, ONLY THE STORMS WILL BE MUCH BIGGER. Freakish sudden storms are likely. Winds and precipitation may continue to set records in various areas.

To follow these numbers, view the Solar Cycle 23 Chart at
http://www.michaelmandeville.com/earthmonitor/topten_monitor.htm

GLOBAL DROUGHT AND FLOOD WATCH
Stories and assessments about drought and flood conditions around the world; global information which provides the ability to assess the impacts to agriculture and the natural environment.

AS PREDICTED LAST WEEK: Continue to watch out for the development of freak floods in some areas, storm fronts are likely to become much bigger and more virulent. Flooding in parts of North America may become a problem during the next three weeks, especially along the eastern slopes of the Rocky Mountain Cordillera, from Texas to the Arctic, and in the western portions of the Great Lakes. Strong potentials for disruptive storms and floods in Northern Europe. Melodi, keep watching out.

For additional details, see
http://www.michaelmandeville.com/ebooks/calendar2003

EL NINO WATCH:

AS PREVIOUSLY PREDICTED: There may be a La Nina during the later part of 2003 and through part of 2004, but it is likely that it will be barely noticeable because of the accumulated “Global Warming” and the relatively high levels of volcanic heat venting in the Earth. The next El Nino is likely to appear in 2005 or 2006.

CHEMTRAILS
See http://www.deepspace4.com/pages/main/pagemain.htm

EARTHQUAKES
Around the world to see the current and potential patterns of seismic activity, with coverage of the windows of danger. I prepared this section by pulling out the Earth Changes 2003 Calendar which has everything plotted on it. You should too. Check out the Almanac as well, it discusses all of the windows for the year and even spotlights the two most dangerous windows.

QUAKE SCIENCE NEWS
Is fairing poorly on TV, as usual. ABC bofflepuked its report of the Alabama quake. There were actually two quakes there above 4.0 and another 4.0 over in Arkansas on a tributary to the Madrid Fault. Quakes in these areas are not geophysically rare as stated by many in the Mass Media. There is continual movement in the Earth in these areas, the movements just aren’t felt. It IS rare for humans to feel them, which occurs every 30 years or so.

RECENT EVENT OF INTEREST THIS PAST FEW DAYS

Two of three interior continental quakes in North America above 4.0 during the past seven days.

Magnitude 4.9 ALABAMA
2003 April 29 08:59:38 UTC
Preliminary Earthquake Report
U.S. Geological Survey, National Earthquake Information Center
World Data Center for Seismology, Denver
http://neic.usgs.gov/neis/bulletin/neic_teak.html
Tuesday, April 29, 2003 at 04:59:38 AM (EDT) - Eastern Daylight


Location 34.54N 85.63W
Depth 15.0 kilometers
Region ALABAMA
Reference 15 km (10 miles) NE of Fort Payne, Alabama
40 km (25 miles) ESE of Scottsboro, Alabama
55 km (35 miles) NW of Rome, Georgia
250 km (155 miles) NNE of MONTGOMERY, Alabama
Source USGS NEIC


Magnitude 4.0 near Blytheville, AR
Wednesday, April 30, 2003 at 4:56:22 (UTC)
Preliminary Earthquake Report
Magnitude 4.0
Time Wednesday, April 30, 2003 at 4:56:22 (UTC)
http://earthquake.usgs.gov/eqinthenews/nmhwb0430a/index.html
Distance from 1 km (1 miles) NNW (334 degrees) of Blytheville, AR
5 km (3 miles) ESE (121 degrees) of Gosnell, AR
14 km (9 miles) N (9 degrees) of Burdette, AR
92 km (57 miles) N (3 degrees) of Memphis, TN

Coordinates 35 deg. 56.4 min. N (35.940N)
89 deg. 55.2 min. W ( 89.920W)
Depth 23.7 km (14.7 miles)
Quality Excellent

QUAKE PATTERNS

The largest crop of quakes for the past seven days, counting from today backwards, was April 24th, about 22 quakes 2.5 and above. This was a bit out of pattern for a non syzygy period but the quake frequency for the last several days has been typically muted, as it should be, for both frequency and magnitude.

There appeared to be more patterns of focii for seismic activity this past week. Several quakes struck the Oceanic Rifts, three in the Atlantic, one in the Indian Ocean, and three along the margins of the great and huge Antarctic Plate, plus others in the Pacific. As well, the Carib and Baja Plates were struck by more quakes than normal, as was, quite obviously, North America. Alaska was part of this pattern in the Earth, the majority of quakes in Alaska last week were in the middle of the interior mountains, relatively little activity occurred along the Aleutian chain, which normally is the most active.

HEADS UP FOR CAYCE VOLCANISM WATCH: Look once again during the next couple of weeks for world volcanism to increase to mirror Cayce’s linkage of upheavals in the frigid zones with an increase in volcanism in the torrid zones.

To see the world quake chart by the USGS, click on
http://neic.usgs.gov/neis/current/

The USGS charts (such charts show all quakes 1.0 and above) for the U.S. and Alaska show 289 quakes for the past seven days (which is down as it should from last week’s 338) with the USGS chart for California/Nevada showing 222 of these in California during the past seven days (which is down as it should be from last week’s 265).

The USGS Chart of Yellowstone Cauldera Area shows 9 microquakes during the last week (down from 37 last week) and 30 quakes scattered throughout Utah (down from 35 last week).

Hood had no new microquakes and the USGS chart for Long Valley Cauldera (Area) showed a running total of 13, which is the same as 13 last week). The USGS Chart for the Pacific Northwest reveals 23 quakes (two week sum, down from 17 microquakes last week) most of them scattered through the Puget Sound basin.

FULL MOON WATCH ON COLIMA – POPO – COOS BAY – SAN ANDREAS
REMEMBER THE COSTA NOSTRA DAMUS PREDICTION: We will watch Coos Bay, San Andreas, Colima, Popo, very carefully.

VOLCANOES
Around the world with the most interesting and relevant volcano stories; briefs on the likely eruptions as well as coverage of on-going activity.

El Popo followed Yellowstone and Long Valley down and offered only a 4 puff day yesterday. Centrapred reports for April 30 (16:00 GMT) that “In the last 24 hours, the Popocatepetl volcano activity remained in a steady level. There were recorded only 4 low intensity exhalations, accompanied mainly by steam and gas. Also isolated episodes of harmonic tremor were recorded accumulating about 3 hours. Since this morning we can observe the volcano with an emission of steam and gas. The reported activity in previous days and the different parameters from the monitoring system are related to the ascent and extrusion of magma at a higher rate than the observed in similar events of this year and end of the last. For this reason there is a probability that a new dome is growing but greater than the observed in the past months.”

Following Yellowstone, Long Valley, and Popo, Volcanic activity worldwide this past seven days is probably down a tad from the past four weeks. The numbers on the lists are the same but there are not many new updates on the major volcanoes and the latest updates of the last week seem to indicate a slight muting of activity.

The Southwest Volcano Centre reports 37 volcanoes on the alert status list (same as last week), 5 volcanoes on the restless list (same as last five weeks), and 23 on the active eruption list (same as last week). Bucking the general trend, Kilauea continues to ooze lots of lava, a large new selection of color eruption photos for Kilauea can be viewed at: http://www.swvrc.org/cerupt.htm

AG INDUSTRY WATCH
Because of the high load of stress which the current peak in the sunspots have placed on the Ag industry, we alert on the changing scene in agriculture and how these are likely to effect the broader economy.

ECONOMIC WATCH

AS PREVIOUSLY PREDICTED: It is doubtful that any economic recovery will begin to be felt until later in the year, probably not until Fall of 2003.

BUT, AS REPORTED LAST WEEK, more and more Bull tracks and cowpies can be spotted. Many sources, including the Governor of Arizona whom I met with last week, are indicating that signs of recovery are cropping up everywhere. ONCE AGAIN THE BULLS ARE MAKING MORE NOISE IN ALL THE MEDIA.

I think it is real.

DITECH.COM ARBITRAGER:
Their TV ad rates are the same as last weeks: 5.35 and 5.677 as of Monday for short and long term rates.
BUT, HERE IS A TWISTY REVERSAL, their first line web quotes are down this week from 4.75 last week to 4.625 (15 yr) and down from 5.375 to 5.25 last week (30 year). This returns their web quotes to the same rates two weeks ago.

Hmmm, competition? It sure does pay to shop around and keep coming back to see who is doing what with their rates.

Basically, I am not sure what Ditech is telling us this week.

(About Ditech Quotes: I am going to watch how close the arbitrager for Ditech.com calls it. I am placing a bet on their interest rate calculations, which are so finely chiseled, they have to be running pretty sophisticated indicator stats. When they clearly go up at least two pegs within a month, even if they are just very small increments, you will know there is wind in the sails of the economy. When the numbers go down you know the economy is still trying to find bottom.)

EURO WATCH
Here is the two year chart for the value of the dollar vis a vis the Euro
http://finance.yahoo.com/m5?s=USD&t=EUR&a=1&c=2
In Mid November 2001, the dollar could purchase about Euro 1.18
In May 2002, the dollar could purchase about Euro 1.10.
During the past two months, the dollar could purchase about Euro .91 to.93
Last week, the dollar could purchase about Euro .91
Today the dollar can purchase about Euro .8946

In other words, the Dollar on average appears to be continuing a 24 month slide.

YOU CAN HEAR THE GIANT SUCKING SOUND OF VALUE BEING REMOVED FROM THE AMERICAN ECONOMY. THIS NOW APPEARS TO BE A DELIBERATE POLICY OF THE U.S. MILITARY INDUSTRIAL COMPLEX TO STIMULATE DEMAND FOR AMERICAN GOODS IN EUROPE AND ASIA. This is one of the ways in which the Imperial Faction is going to tax Europe to inadvertently pay for a part of the invasion of Iraq.

I believe that it is well worth buying Euros now.

AS REPORTED LAST WEEK: With control of Iraq’s oil, and no doubt the thirst of the Iraqi’s for some serious income, it will be easy for American institutions to cause a major surplus of oil production on the world market, forcing oil to be cheap in terms of dollars. By forcing the Euro to be expensive in terms of dollars, Europe will have dirt cheap energy but it will not be able to export nearly as much manufactured goods as they might want to export. But this will be a boon to American exporters because the cost of their goods will be cheaper and exports to Europe should boom. This should also be a boon to tourism. European tourism in North America should increase substantially during 2004. It gets really interesting if they force another 20 per cent differential in values between Europe and America. China will begin to become squeezed and a good portion of the balance of payments problem will begin to dry up. And Europeans will be in the Americas spending their money on everything in sight. This should also slow down China Walmart Inc. Chinese goods will get more expensive, but probably only marginally so for the next couple of years.

GENERAL PREDICTION DJI AVERAGES: Conditions remain highly unstable but Bull energy IS GATHERING STRENGTH. This is despite the dire straits of the American aviation industry and the depressed tourist industry. They have been in bad shape since 2001, so there is really no new news. Tens of thousands of jobs will probably be lost and an airline company or two may disappear, but the reconsolidation this year may help firm up the economy.

PREDICTIONS CONFIRMED: THE STOCK MARKET PERFORMED AS PREDICTED LAST WEEK: For the moment, expect 200 to 500 point movements in as little as a day generally hovering around 8200-8500 during the next several weeks. This number will gradually inch upwards to 9000 as the invasion of Iraq draws to a conclusion.

Time to rewrite that one. Here is a new version: The DJI gained 500 points during April with many 200 point mood swings to close today at 8,502. We can probably expect similar growth during May and June. By the time the Dog Days set in the DJI may be up in the range of 9200, plus or minus 300, BUT this is proviso because of the fragility of both the economy and international politics. Strong negatives in the news could depress these numbers and keep the DJI under 9000. Eventually this number will flatten during July and August and will then continue to inch up during the Fall. By the end of the year, the DJI may be pushing 9500-10,000, but only is jobs are being created and retailers are reporting a decent year end sales season.

LAST WEEK’S CLOSING DJI PREDICTION HIT THE MARK, IF A LITTLE HIGH: “Stocks will rally slowly upward and may close 8500, plus or minus 200. Condition prediction with the above General Prediction.” IN FACT, the market closed the week at 8,306. It closed today at 8,509

I AM LETTING THESE PREDICTIONS RIDE AGAIN FOR NEXT WEEK. Expect to see a gradual inching up, not inching down.

AS PREVIOUSLY STATED: Beyond 9000, the market cannot remain until a real turn around is evident in the U.S. economy. So far we are empty-handed in this department, BUT IT IS LIKELY THAT A SPRING UPTURN IS BEGINNING. It may be more strongly evident by the middle of May. Any major adverse result in the American War On Iraq will see sudden downturns for one to a few days BUT THESE ARE GOING TO BE INCREASINGLY UNLIKELY.

AS PREVIOUSLY PREDICTED: The easy success in Iraq and the increasing acceptance of the Iraqi people, along with a huge $80 billion short term spending bill for the Pentagon and Homeland Defense, plus the likelihood of huge Iraq reconstruction bonds and contracts to be let out in the next few months, all auger for confidence in the coming of an expansion of the U.S. economy and an upsurge in stock values. By May there may be enough apparent buoyancy to consider a buying strategy for the next two to three years. I would wait, however, and let things firm up a bit during the summer. Then scoop up what you want to buy in late August, before Labor Day.

MAJOR ADVERSE CONTINGENCIES:

SARS - The SARS virus may disrupt even more air travel enough to cause another depressive wave to flow through the economy, which will send the stock market south by a long ways. If so, ALL BETS are off. This nasty downward economic spiral could continue and induce another huge depressionary wave.

Conditions in Iraq
U.S. Diplomacy
Price of Oil
Osama Bin Laden and Al Qaeda
Palestinian Peace Process

HEALTH WATCH

SARS SITUATION STILL UNCLEAR: Despite some apparent success in “blocking it”, and despite some considerable skepticism that this is anything more than pneumonia, Chinese hysteria seems to be mounting.

The SARS virus is going to be a problem at least for awhile. Despite the new reports out of China, it is still NOT appearing to show a dynamic geometric expansion curve. Its spread is quite slow and this may be because it is being controlled AND/OR it is not as contagious as feared. Despite the concern, regular pneumonia is killing far more people every week than SARS.

I have a range of conflicting information on SARs which has been sent to me. I am going to send it to you without much comment since this is beyond my range of knowledgeable opinion.

GEO-POLITICAL WATCH
How are the sunspots likely to most effect human affairs during the weeks and months ahead?

Most of the socio-world seems to be jostling and sloshing around, unsure of directions, insecure about money, and confused about terrorism. People seem to be looking to re-calibrate their political gauges as everyone slowly adjusts to the “new realities”.

REPEAT FROM LAST WEEK: It appears that events in Iraq are stabilizing and will require such a large armed U.S. force to impose the “Pax” that it is unlikely that the U.S. Military can expand Imperial adventurism in the Middle East. It is probably unlikely that any military moves will be made against the “Axis of Evil” countries this year or next. (At the moment, the “power greed” of the Imperial Faction is working in our favor. They have bitten off as much as they can possibly chew and they will be busy for quite a spell.)

REPEAT FROM LAST WEEK: While the Eurasians arrange their new coalitions, American elites will test the durability of their arrogance in Iraq. Already all social groups in Iraq are dissolving into a myriad of fractures which are too rich for North American minds to easily grasp. The whipsaw, sensationalizing, either/or mental processes of the American Mass Broadcast Media will make events in Iraq impossible to understand even as the media instant experts purport to reveal all. I suspect that the sooner American TV forgets about Iraq, the better off both Iraq and America will be.

SIGN OF THE TIMES: it looks like, America’s hot adventure “reality” show, “The Empire Strikes Back” HAS successfully keep much of the corporate scandals under the rug. Have you heard even a tiny bit about these scandals since the cliff-hangers started at the U.N. at the beginning of February? ARE YOU SURPRISED? Ken Lay, just a good ole boy Texan, the Presiding Officer of the rape of California Consumers, otherwise known as Enron, is still scott free with his crooked billions…

SIGN OF THE TIMES II: We still have ABSOLUTELY NO IDEA HOW MANY PEOPLE WERE KILLED AND INJURED IN IRAQ. Did you even notice?

Keep checking out the Media Lens organization. http://www.medialens.org
They are providing some really good wake up antidote to the Orwellian Newspeak of the Imperial Faction.

As the next few weeks unfold, the “real story” of what happened in Iraq will progressively change its appearance as the over all facts begin to come into focus. There will be many additional flaps appear and new issues will raise ugly heads.