EarthMonitor

Earth Changes Bulletin Update As Of April 23, 2003

http://gcn.gsfc.nasa.gov/gcn/other/030329.gcn3

http://nyrola.jklsirius.fi/grb/grb030329/

Before this happened (or they noticed this) with the galactic center, this happened: It was an explosion in the Universe near the Star Sirius. Supposedly it came out of the Monoceros area. They ultimately named it v838 Mon (monoceritus). It was to that moment simply the most extraordinary, powerful thing that had ever happened in recorded history. It spewed out energy waves equal to 600,000 of our Suns. They were terrified to even report it to the public because they didn't know what would happen to us as these waves of energy washed over us. They finally broke the story in February 2003. The pictures that Hubble took of this phenom are incredible. But there is a little known piece of it that is even more interesting: Before it 'BLOOMED' into what looks for all the world like a beautiful flower, it first blue itself up into a HUGE Jovian ball of orange. Its companion star which is very blue, literally DANCED across the sky in front of it as it was 'growing'. I accidently came across the anim gif while I was researching it on some astro pages. This whole process which began very soon after your post, lasted for an entire 12-month period. Here is another piece of it: The Southern Cross is now 'rising'? just below Sirius in the area of Centauri. Its Center star was supposed to cross something on March 29th, 2003!!!

You know what is funny, when i got booted off the quest site, I began to doubt all of LaViolette's theories, even the astronomical theories which my intuition told me was correct, hence i even doubted my own intuition which has proven accurate often, especially as regards precog. dreams. I know the crustal shift has been happening since 1936, there never was a doubt in my mind about the readings or even your slant on them. I knew LaViolette was definately off on some of his geological, climate, and myth theories, but i was 'sure' that he was onto something as regards his astronomy theories. Michael, there are often many pieces of the puzzle. This age is the culmination of many long and short cycles, much is going on, not just a crustal shift, which is, in a sense, is a symptom. These events, are connected in a indirect way.

BTW- The crustal shift is going to culminate over 39 or 47 days, with 7 days during the peak velocity, it will be the most intense and destructive.

MWM: I agree fairly well with this type of scenario, as you well know. My suspicion is that it will take several pumps by the lunar cycle to break the crust free and accelerate the motion, hence the process in my estimation will take minimally several months to gain acceleration. This process could even take a number of years. This period will correspond with the prophecies which foretell of “tribulation” and the astonishment of the nations as events cascade beyond control. Finally, with a huge rolling round of quakes and a final huge flaring of volcanoes, the motion will suddenly accelerate (the crust will literally fall in the direction which centrifugal force flings it) so that the greater portion of the entire distance of the shift occurs within a week or so. Destructive indeed it will be. Everything will heave, shake, rattle, and roll, ranging from incredible to Gevalt! There may be a rebound action as well, as the initial fling may land the crust beyond its stability point for the new era. This corresponds with the legendary descriptions of the last shift, which describe the apparent motion of the Sun in the sky changing direction at least twice.

Justin continues:

I 'know' the crust will gain enough momentum, around May 11, to fully 'break' away from the mantle. The signs, physically, have been there since the beginning of March. Those who have been following the U.S.G.S and Iris sites, are in for a surprise.. these sites have been majority tampering with their info. Though they have reported technical difficulties with their seismic stations, the truth is much more sinister, they are deliberately keeping us in the dark about these events. The shift has become apparent since about March 5. The seismic readings would start strongly in the S. pole station and in the Russina station, and then a 'wave' of E.Q.'s, many 'silent' and very deep, would rock the entire planet, especially around the pacific ring of fire, and at the deep, deep trenches of the different oceans. This has been going in a strange cycle of non-activity, and then increasingly stronger activity, there is a definate pattern here. The European E.Q. site has been much more reliable since this started to happen during the beginning of March. I don't have the exact link, for the euro site (i'm at the library p.c right now) but i think it is called CSEM. Please pass this info on, the only thing to lose, is me being wrong and i don't care about that.

Take care Brother Michael, Justin


MWM: Take care, Justin. I hope you don’t mind if I think you are wrong! I am not ready at all for a major shifting of the crust.

AS PREVIOUSLY REPORTED: It will now head toward the last annual MAX in this current 6.5 year cycle of Chandler’s Wobble. This annual MAX should be achieved about the beginning of October of this year. This MAX will define the MAX for this entire current cycle. When this 6.5 year MAX point is achieved, the average location of the North Spin Axis can be computed and thus the current rate of shifting in the location of the wobbling pole can also be computed by comparison with the previous cycles.

REPEATED: PRELIMINARY FIGURE FOR RECENT DISPLACEMENT: This is a preliminary indication which needs more work: the average location of the pole appears to have shifted possibly as much as 91.1 inches or 231.5 centimeters since the beginning of 1996. That implies an average rate of shifting of the poles since 1996 of 13 inches/yr. or 33 centimeters/year. This rate is substantially higher than it has been during most of the 20th century. What the rate of acceleration may be I cannot determine at the current time. Is the crust of the Earth currently slipping over the molten mantle at a faster rate? Probably yes.

To see the current graph of polar motion, see
http://www.michaelmandeville.com/earthmonitor/topten_monitor.htm
Scroll down the page until you get to the black and white graphs with show the x and y coordinates of the North Spin Axis on two separate graphs.

For additional current details: see

http://www.michaelmandeville.com/ebooks/
calendar2003/currentconditions.htm#polarmotion
(watch the word wrap on the URL)

FOR NEWBIES: The vortex tectonics paradigm of the earth holds that polar motion in the 6.5 year wobble cycle (Chandler’s) creates the major stress in the Earth’s crust which is released by lunar tidal forces each month in the form of earthquakes and volcanism. The acceleration in the motion of the drift of the poles and its relocation forces an increasing tempo in the shape shifting of the Equatorial zone, where 70% of tectonic activity occurs. Accordingly, earthquakes and volcanic activity should increase in frequency and magnitude.

PLANETS (all time coordinates here and elsewhere are in UTC)

The Moon this day is in its South Node and is now almost into the Fourth Quarter of its monthly cycle. The next New Moon will be on May 1 with Apogee occurring just four hours before Newness. (Perigee = the Moon’s closest approach to the Earth during its monthly orbit which increases gravitational influence of the Moon by as much as 15%; Apogee = the Moon’s greatest distance from the Earth during its monthly orbit).

We passed a double planetary alignment on April 15 composed of Mercury | Jupiter and Venus | Neptune. (To see a chart of this double alignment go to the Earth Changes 2003 Calendar and click on the planet link (look for the YES on the Date Line for April 15.
http://www.michaelmandeville.com/ebooks/calendar2003/calendar.htm

Two more planetary alignments will straddle the New Moon on May 1: Venus | Uranus on April 30 and Mercury | Earth on May 3. To view these alignments on the day of May 1, 2003, click on:

http://www.michaelmandeville.com/earthmonitor/cosmos/planets/
planets2003/planetsall_May1_2003.gif
(watch the word wrap of this and other URLs, you may have to paste part of it into your browser manually)

See Earth Changes 2003 Almanac Calendar for additional details
http://www.michaelmandeville.com/ebooks/calendar2003/
The Almanac lays out the planets and the lunar phases for entire year in advance to allow you to find the best and worst periods of weather, earthquake activity, ethereal “lunar” influences, etc.

PLANET WATCHING:

Well the dreaded March appearance of Nebiru, AS PREDICTED HERE, has failed. Nebiru is nowhere in sight.

Here is what Mitch Battros (Earth Changes TV) thinks about the Nebiru prophecies:

Is Planet - X Approaching As Predicted?

Not a chance! Those clowns of the Zeta tribe are back-tracking as fast as any righteous alien can possibly run. Just as predicted, the Lieder's, Hazelwood's, McCanney's are running for the hills. The group of fictious-science criers, are coming up with all kinds of excuses of why the secret/mystical planet-x is not showing for its May debut. Below is an article I wrote back on July 28th 2002.

Here is an excerpt of what I predicted might be said to cover their tracks ""I have been told by my guides, or Russian Scientist (depending on what idiot is making the special announcement at the time), that our heightened consciousness has pushed Planet-X away from our orbit. Thanks to you, my loyal followers, we have off-set the predicted catastrophe for at least one more year. Now be sure and stay tuned and watch for my new book which will explain what will happen in May 2004."

Full Article: http://www.earthchangestv.com/breaking/July2002/28sunspots.htm

Mercury: Probably can no longer be seen

Venus: Cannot be seen (I incorrectly reported this by setting the orrery on the wrong year)

Mars: You may now be able to see this at dawn

Jupiter: Cannot be seen

SUNSPOTS
The events in the solar atmosphere which impact weather and climate patterns, the magnetic field and auroras, including forecasts for the week, month, and year ahead.

Sunspots counts are WAY UP

Duck!

Despite the fact that the planetary alignments on the 15th of April failed to produce sunspots as expected, and in fact the average count dipped down to 37 on April 17, the next planetary alignments have already formed up a huge wave in the counts. On April 21, nine days early, the count spiked radically up to 155 and April 22 they were at 147.

Since the Solar Flux is at a HIGH of 130 and still climbing (for the alignments no doubt), it is VERY LIKELY THAT SUNSPOT COUNTS WILL RISE EVEN HIGHER DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. The highest peak should be about April 27-30.

Most likely it is the approach of Mercury towards the Earth which is driving the huge increase in sunspots. The Venus | Uranus alignment is probably quite weak (speaking electromagnetically).

LAST WEEK’S PREDICTION CONFIRMED: “Despite the lack of performance for the current double alignments, the sunspot counts for this next one should be a double pointed peak over 100, up to as high as 190 or so, and this peak should commence about April 20, reach final high about April 26-28, and then precipitously decline into the range of 10 – 30. This alignment should produce sunspot counts well above 100 mainly because it is Mercury aligning with Earth. We shall see.” (given on April 16, 2003)

Indeed we are right on the money at the moment.

AS PREVIOUSLY REPORTED: Over all, the sunspot average count for February was 46.4 and for March it rose to 61.5. PREDICTED: Based on planetary alignments during April, the average sunspot count should be somewhere between these two numbers for April, but closer to March than February. ACTUAL: Due to the failure of the alignments on April 15 to induce sunspots, the monthly average sunspot count in April will most likely be the lowest yet.

Since the sunspot counts are way up, the SOLAR WEATHER will become more CHAOTIC AND EXTREMELY PETULANT.

NASA SOLAR STORM REPORTS: Fast-growing sunspot 338 has unleashed two M-class solar flares on April 23rd. One of the explosions around 0105 UT also hurled a lopsided coronal mass ejection (CME, pictured right) into space. Although the CME was not squarely Earth-directed, it might deliver a glancing blow to our planet's magnetic field on or about April 25th.

Solar-induced magnetic fields and flux ARE AGAIN HIGHLY UNSTABLE right now. The Fluxgate Monitor at the U of Alaska showed TWO HUGE severe magnetic disturbances with about eight or so distinct CHOPS during the past 24 hours in the Earth’s Atmosphere. As of this moment, the Solar Wind Speed is a modestly robust 494.7 km/s and at this hour but it is pushing a modest density of 2.8 protons/cm.

The magnetic disturbances are likely induced by a rapid stream of solar wind flowing from a coronal hole (in the Sun’s atmosphere). NASA PREDICTS: "A recurrent coronal hole (CH35) in the southern hemisphere was in a geoeffective position on April 21-22. A trans equatorial coronal hole (CH36) will rotate to a geoeffective position on April 23. Solar wind gusts from the indicated coronal hole will probably reach Earth on April 26 or 27."

NASA’S AURORA OUTLOOK: A solar wind stream flowing from a small coronal hole might sweep past Earth on April 23rd and trigger geomagnetic activity. Sky watchers in northern US states (e.g., Alaska, Minnesota, Wisconsin), northern Europe, Canada, southern Australia and New Zealand should be alert for auroras.

Jan Alvestad reports: “A recurrent coronal hole (CH35) in the southern hemisphere was in a geoeffective position on April 21-22. A trans equatorial coronal hole (CH36) will rotate to a geoeffective position on April 23.”

Jan Alvestad predicts: “The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to active on April 23 and unsettled to active on April 24-25 due to a high speed stream from coronal hole CH35. Long distance medium wave (AM) band propagation along east-west paths over high and upper middle latitudes is very poor, a condition which is likely to persist until at least April 26. Propagation along north-south paths is poor to fair and should remain poor to fair until at least April 26.”

Alvestad goes on to predict major disturbances from a suddenly far more active Sun:

“1) Effects from a coronal hole could reach Earth within the next 5 days.
2) Material from a CME is likely to impact Earth within 96 hours. (20 to 60 percent probability)
3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48 hours. (60 to 100 percent probability)”
See http://www.dxlc.com/solar/

ABSOLUTELY NO DOUBT THAT solar influences on the Earth’s atmosphere will remain petulant for the next several days, MORE LIKELY DURING THE NEXT TWO WEEKS. As last week brought stormy, tricky, unpredictable sudden fluctuations in the weather in many ways, EXPECT THE SAME, ONLY THE STORMS WILL BE MUCH BIGGER. Freakish sudden storms are likely. Winds and precipitation may continue to set records in various areas. In the ARIZONA foothills, this has already begun, the past two days have been HIGHLY WINDY, CLOUDY, AND DOWNRIGHT CHILLY.

To follow these numbers, view the Solar Cycle 23 Chart at
http://www.michaelmandeville.com/earthmonitor/topten_monitor.htm

GLOBAL DROUGHT AND FLOOD WATCH
Stories and assessments about drought and flood conditions around the world; global information which provides the ability to assess the impacts to agriculture and the natural environment.

Continue to watch out for the development of freak floods in some areas, storm fronts are likely to become much bigger and more virulent. Flooding in parts of North America may become a problem during the next three weeks, especially along the eastern slopes of the Rocky Mountain Cordillera, from Texas to the Arctic, and in the western portions of the Great Lakes. Strong potentials for disruptive storms and floods in Northern Europe. Melodi, watch out.

For additional details, see
http://www.michaelmandeville.com/ebooks/calendar2003

EL NINO WATCH:

AS PREVIOUSLY PREDICTED: There may be a La Nina during the later part of 2003 and through part of 2004, but it is likely that it will be barely noticeable because of the accumulated “Global Warming” and the relatively high levels of volcanic heat venting in the Earth. The next El Nino is likely to appear in 2005 or 2006.

CHEMTRAILS
See http://www.deepspace4.com/pages/main/pagemain.htm

EARTHQUAKES
Around the world to see the current and potential patterns of seismic activity, with coverage of the windows of danger. I prepared this section by pulling out the Earth Changes 2003 Calendar which has everything plotted on it. You should too. Check out the Almanac as well, it discusses all of the windows for the year and even spotlights the two most dangerous windows.

QUAKE SCIENCE NEWS
USGS has released two new major studies related to quake hazards and monitoring in Calfiornia. Go to http://neic.usgs.gov/neis/bulletin/
Look for these items and click on them:
04/23/03 - Multi-Agency Map of California Earthquake Shaking Potential Released
04/22/03: New earthquake probabilities for the San Francisco Bay Region

RECENT EVENT OF INTEREST THIS PAST FEW DAYS

The biggest quake of the last seven days and definitely the most significant of the past month was at a tectonic plate triple junction:

Magnitude 6.5 BOUVET ISLAND REGION
2003 April 17 14:50:48 UTC
Preliminary Earthquake Report
U.S. Geological Survey, National Earthquake Information Center
World Data Center for Seismology, Denver
Magnitude 6.5
Date-Time Thursday, April 17, 2003 at 14:50:48 (UTC) - Coordinated Universal Time
Thursday, April 17, 2003 at 02:50:48 PM local time at epicenter
Location 54.69S 1.29E
Depth 10.0 kilometers
Region BOUVET ISLAND REGION
Reference 140 km (85 miles) WSW of Bouvet Island
2670 km (1660 miles) SSW of Cape Town, South Africa
Source USGS NEIC (WDCS-D)

This quake was followed by a 4.8 quake today a few hours ago at Lat South 53.07 Long East 21.94 along the same Antarctic Tectonic Plate Margin. And, world volcanism is UP this week, mirroring Cayce’s linkage of upheavals in the frigid zones with an increase in volcanism in the torrid zones.

QUAKE PATTERNS

The largest crop of quakes for the past seven days, counting from today backwards, was April 17th, about 21 quakes 2.5 and above for the Full Moon Perigee Syzygy. That was correct, but the count for the syzygy overall was relatively small, like the previous New Moon Syzygy. April 22nd saw a sudden upsurge to 19 quakes, which broke the pattern for this period of time. Otherwise, quake activity is currently muted, as it should be, for both frequency and magnitude.

There have been no apparent patterns or focii of major seismic activity this past week.

To see the world quake chart by the USGS, click on
http://neic.usgs.gov/neis/current/

The USGS charts (such charts show all quakes 1.0 and above) for the U.S. and Alaska show 338 quakes for the past seven days (which is up as it should be but not by much from last week’s 319) with the USGS chart for California/Nevada showing 265 of these in California during the past seven days (which is up as it should be but not by much from last week’s 246).

As last week, relatively speaking, California continues to show a substantially higher rate of seismic activity than its normal historical pattern vis a vis Alaska. Normally, Alaska show more seismic activity than California, which makes it the top site in North America and one of the top five most active areas in the world.

The USGS Chart of Yellowstone Cauldera Area shows 37 microquakes during the last week (up from 29 last week) and 35 quakes scattered throughout Utah (down from 49 last week).

Hood had no new microquakes and the USGS chart for Long Valley Cauldera (Area) showed a running total of 13, which is up from 10 last week). The USGS Chart for the Pacific Northwest reveals 17 quakes (two week sum, down from 22 microquakes last week) most of them scattered through the Puget Sound basin.

FULL MOON WATCH ON COLIMA – POPO – COOS BAY – SAN ANDREAS
REMEMBER THE COSTA NOSTRA DAMUS PREDICTION: We will watch Coos Bay, San Andreas, Colima, Popo, very carefully.

VOLCANOES
Around the world with the most interesting and relevant volcano stories; briefs on the likely eruptions as well as coverage of on-going activity.

El Popo followed Yellowstone and Long Valley up and offered a 26 puff day yesterday. Centrapred reports for April 23 (16:00 GMT) that “In the last 24 hours the monitoring system of the Popocatepetl volcano registered 26 low to moderate intensity exhalations accompanied by steam and gas emissions. Also there were recorded some episodes of low amplitude harmonic tremor for about 2 hours. The other monitored parameters remain without important changes. At the moment of this report, there is partial visibility due to the clouds, however, this morning we could see it with a small steam and gas emmission (see image). As long as there are remains of the dome, explosive activity is possible implying ash emissions and incandescent material ejections around the crater.”

Following Yellowstone, Long Valley, and Popo, Volcanic activity worldwide this past seven days is up a tad from the past four weeks. The Southwest Volcano Centre reports 37 volcanoes on the alert status list (up two from last week), 5 volcanoes on the restless list (same as last five weeks), and 23 on the active eruption list (up 1 from last week). Several volcanoes on the Pacific Rim of Fire definitely were more eruptive this past several days and a large new selection of color eruption photos for Kilauea can be viewed at: http://www.swvrc.org/cerupt.htm

Interestingly enough, this upsurge in volcanism followed the 6.4 earthquake on April 17 along the Antarctic Plate Margin. This mirrors Cayce’s linkage of upheavals in the frigid zones with an increase in volcanism in the torrid zones. Is this now the second or the third time we have seen this paralleling? Actually I believe it is the fourth.

AG INDUSTRY WATCH
Because of the high load of stress which the current peak in the sunspots have placed on the Ag industry, we alert on the changing scene in agriculture and how these are likely to effect the broader economy.

AS PREVIOUSLY REPORTED: Famine reports confirm last year’s predictions. While the world’s attention is focused on a provocative military campaign ordered by George Bush Jr., famines in East Africa have left most of Ethiopia and other portions of Africa in dire straits. Some 38 million Africans are starving to death. If people want to unify the world in peace, truly making peace, IT IS NOW TIME TO MOVE PAST IRAQ AND MOVE ONTO THE ISSUE OF FAMINE IN AFRICA. This IS the world’s humanitarian catastrophe.

ECONOMIC WATCH

AS PREVIOUSLY PREDICTED: It is doubtful that any economic recovery will begin to be felt until later in the year, probably not until Fall of 2003.

AS REPORTED LAST WEEK – IMPORTANT - SIGNS CAN ALREADY BE DETECTED THAT THE RECESSION IS OVER. ONCE AGAIN THE BULLS ARE MAKING MORE NOISE IN ALL THE MEDIA.

DITECH.COM ARBITRAGER:
First line web quotes are up this week to 4.75 from 4.625 last week (15 yr) and up to 5.375 from 5.25 last week (30 year)
Their TV ad rates are NOW UP FROM 5.25 and 5.55 last week to 5.35 and 5.677 as of Monday for short and long term rates. Basically, Ditech.com is telling us that it is slightly less difficult to find qualified borrowers, and that they expect a little more demand for money, which suggests a slight expansion in the economy may have begun.

(About Ditech Quotes: I am going to watch how close the arbitrager for Ditech.com calls it. I am placing a bet on their interest rate calculations, which are so finely chiseled, they have to be running pretty sophisticated indicator stats. When they clearly go up at least two pegs within a month, even if they are just very small increments, you will know there is wind in the sails of the economy. When the numbers go down you know the economy is still trying to find bottom.)

EURO WATCH
Here is the two year chart for the value of the dollar vis a vis the Euro
http://finance.yahoo.com/m5?s=USD&t=EUR&a=1&c=2
In Mid November 2001, the dollar could purchase about Euro 1.18
In May 2002, the dollar could purchase about Euro 1.10.
During the past two months, the dollar could purchase about Euro .91 to.93
Today the dollar can purchase about Euro .91

In other words, the Dollar on average appears to be continuing a 24 month slide.

DISREGARD THIS PREDICTION FROM LAST WEEK: The value of the dollar will hold firm near this point for a few weeks and begin to climb back up as international confidence begins to build upon the realization that all the dire things which could have gone wrong this past few months most fortunately did not.

It appears that U.S. monetary policy will be implemented to continue this slide. This is one of the ways in which the Imperial Faction is going to tax Europe to inadvertently pay for a part of the invasion of Iraq. If so, it is well worth buying Euros right now.

With control of Iraq’s oil, and no doubt the thirst of the Iraqi’s for some serious income, it will be easy for American institutions to cause a major surplus of oil production on the world market, forcing oil to be cheap in terms of dollars. By forcing the Euro to be expensive in terms of dollars, Europe will have dirt cheap energy but it will not be able to export nearly as much manufactured goods as they might want to export. But this will be a boon to American exporters because the cost of their goods will be cheaper and exports to Europe should boom. This should also be a boon to tourism. European tourism in North America should increase substantially during 2004.

This should also slow down China Walmat Inc. Chinese goods will get more expensive, but probably only marginally so for the next couple of years.

This is a viciously one-sided hardball manipulation which only a large world power under a unilateralist arrogant leader would or could impose. It gets really interesting if they force another 20 per cent differential in values between Europe and America. China will begin to become squeezed and a good portion of the balance of payments problem will begin to dry up. And Europeans will be in the Americas spending their money on everything in sight.

(Unless Putin can divise ways to lure them to the East).

With this, it takes not much additional 2 plus 2 to see pretty much how the few years are going to go down, or is that, up. Well, that depends upon your perspective and what side of the ocean you are on, does it not?

I suggest that you pay attention to what is described below as the latest declared U.S. monetary strategy. The Federal Reserve is going to make the dollar cheap against the Euro to stimulate the U.S. economy since interest rates are as low as they can get. Here is the tip which appeared in a story in the New York Times (translated from Germany’s “Der Spiegel”.

“In fact, last week in Brussels a high-ranking diplomat from Washington made no secret of this intention. He made it clear to his European counterparts that the politics of the strong dollar have become a relic of the past, and that the United States would make a concerted effort to manipulate the dollar exchange rate in a downward direction. The intended consequence is that European exporters would lose market share in the United States as the exchange rate would bring up the cost of their products, while US corporations would improve their positions in Europe. With this approach, the Americans will reduce their large trade budget deficit, which has since grown to about five percent of the US gross national product. And it was certainly not without some derision that the emissary from the Potomac told his anti-war partners: ‘This will be Europe's invisible contribution to our Iraq costs.’ “

They are practically giving the money away to banks but banks can't find anybody new to lend to who isn't bankrupt or without income. It is highly logical now to cheapen the dollar. This will take some time, but buy the Euro immediately. It may be good for a 10 to 20 percent income during the next two years, esp. if you park the Euro in a Swiss account and buy income producing bonds with the Euros to make interest on top of the currency appreciation. It is extremely doubtful you are going to make that with money any other way.

GENERAL PREDICTION DJI AVERAGES: Conditions remain highly unstable but the worst is probably breaking now. BEAR presence can still be felt but Bull energy IS GATHERING STRENGTH.

This is despite the dire straits of the American aviation industry and the depressed tourist industry. They have been in bad shape since 2001, so there is really no new news. Tens of thousands of jobs will probably be lost and an airline company or two may disappear, but the reconsolidation this year may help firm up the economy.

THE STOCK MARKET PERFORMED AS PREDICTED LAST WEEK: For the moment, expect 200 to 500 point movements in as little as a day generally hovering around 8200-8500 during the next several weeks. This number will gradually inch upwards to 9000 as the invasion of Iraq draws to a conclusion.

LAST WEEK’S CLOSING DJI PREDICTION HIT THE MARK, IF A LITTLE HIGH: “Stocks will rally slowly upward and may close 8500, plus or minus 200. Condition prediction with the above General Prediction.” IN FACT, the market closed the week at 8,337. It closed today at 8,515

I AM LETTING BOTH OF THESE PREDICTIONS RIDE AGAIN FOR NEXT WEEK. Expect to see a gradual inching up, not inching down.

AS PREVIOUSLY STATED: Beyond 9000, the market cannot remain until a real turn around is evident in the U.S. economy. So far we are empty-handed in this department, BUT IT IS LIKELY THAT A SPRING UPTURN IS BEGINNING. It may be more strongly evident by the middle of May. Any major adverse result in the American War On Iraq will see sudden downturns for one to a few days BUT THESE ARE GOING TO BE INCREASINGLY UNLIKELY.

MAJOR ADVERSE CONTINGENCIES: Far fewer than last two weeks. But a nasty one is even worse.

DUE TO THE REVELATION THIS WEEK THAT CHINESE HEALTH OFFICIALS WERE LYING AND HIDING THE EXTENT OF THE PROBLEM, THIS ADVERSE CONTINGENCY IS NOW MORE SIGNIFICANT: The SARS virus may disrupt air travel enough to cause another depressive wave to flow through the economy, which will send the stock market south by a long ways. If so, ALL BETS are off. Asian brokers are already discounting the economies of Hong Kong and Singapore. This nasty downward economic spiral could continue and induce another huge depressionary wave.

Last week we asked: WHY IS THIS SUCH AN HYSTERIA? THERE MUST BE THINGS GOING ON ABOUT THIS UNDER THE COVERS.

INDEED THERE WAS, as we found out rudely this week.

Still, it does not appear that a real epidemic is underway. At worst, it really is a little to early to make any judgments, we need to watch this very very carefully.

It appears that events in Iraq are stabilizing and will require such a large armed U.S. force to impose the “Pax” that it is unlikely that the U.S. Military can expand Imperial adventurism in the Middle East. It is probably unlikely that any military moves will be made against the “Axis of Evil” countries this year or next.

(At the moment, the “power greed” of the Imperial Faction is working in our favor. They have bitten off as much as they can possibly chew and they will be busy for quite a spell.)

CONTINUE TO WATCH FOR THE POSSIBLE EMERGENCE OF BOYCOTTS. These are not likely to emerge strongly at this time but as dissatisfaction grows in the Middle East with the new conditions, there may arise powerful efforts by Arab leaders to impact the U.S. economically through boycotts. THESE COULD BE FAR MORE EFFECTIVE IN DAMAGING THE U.S. THAN SUICIDE TERRORISTS.

REPEAT FROM LAST WEEK: Don’t get fooled by major rallies. These rebounds will be too fast. A fundamental shift in the economy has to be felt before stocks can truly begin to ride the next Bull.

AS REPORTED LAST WEEK: The easy success in Iraq and the increasing acceptance of the Iraqi people, along with a huge $80 billion short term spending bill for the Pentagon and Homeland Defense, plus the likelihood of huge Iraq reconstruction bonds and contracts to be let out in the next few months, all auger for confidence in the coming of an expansion of the U.S. economy and an upsurge in stock values. By May there may be enough apparent buoyancy to consider a buying strategy for the next two to three years. I would wait, however, and let things firm up a bit during the summer. Then scoop up what you want to buy in late August, before Labor Day.

HEALTH WATCH

The SARS virus is going to be a problem at least for awhile. Despite the new reports out of China, it is still NOT appearing to show a dynamic geometric expansion curve. Its spread is quite slow and this may be because it is being controlled AND/OR it is not as contagious as feared. Despite the concern, regular pneumonia is killing far more people every week than SARS.

This situation could of course change and we may still be in for a rapidly spreading epidemic.

BUT, the REACTION to SARS is spiraling out of control. The World Health Organization has now begun to advise people to cancel trips if they can to Beijing, Hong Kong, Shanxi and Guangdong Provinces of China, and Toronto in Canada . Lufthansa Airlines, Germany’s main airline company, has just announced cancellation of direct flights between Europe and Hong Kong. The tourist industry is reported collapsing in China even as the American aviation industry is collapsing into nearly universal bankruptcy. These extreme reactions to what is still a low probability health threat show just how fragile our economic world order really is. This reaction spiral is likely to grow even larger and if SARS does jump the fences and become truly epidemic, it is quite obvious that the resulting disruption will induce an economic collapse which is catastrophic.

The economic collapse after World War I and the infamous influenza epidemic which killed millions of people comes to mind. In some countries, virtually all organized activity simply dissolved away and it took several years for organized communal activity to return. It was in that period that both Roman Fascism and Boshevik Communism flowered and ultimately conspired to collide in World War II. Look at the economic statistics for Europe for the period 1917-1926.

AS REPORTED LAST WEEK: SARS greatest impact may be simply the hysteria it causes in various areas, such as the case of sniffles causing the quarantine of an airliner and a school. Martial law is always a possibility, ANYWHERE, and could grow to impact major metropolitan areas with nearly complete economic shutdowns for a few days to a few weeks. It appears to be a little early to draw any realistic conclusion about the rates of progression of SARS and the possibility of major economic impact. All we can do is hope that it will be as slow as it is currently, which will mean that it gradually will fade away as a crisis and remain just another form of pneumonia, which is already a killer of old people. WATCH HONG KONG and TORONTO. As Hong Kong and Toronto go, so go many major metropolitan areas.

GEO-POLITICAL WATCH
How are the sunspots likely to most effect human affairs during the weeks and months ahead?

Most of the socio-world seems to be jostling and sloshing around, unsure of directions, insecure about money, and confused about terrorism. People seem to be looking to re-calibrate their political gauges as everyone slowly adjusts to the “new realities”.

The following remarks by Mitch Battros (Earth Changes TV) seem to catch this mood quite succinctly:

Today the World Health Organization (WHO), released an urgent warning to the world. As a result of ongoing assessments as to the nature of outbreaks of severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) in Beijing and Shanxi Province, China, and in Toronto, Canada, WHO is now recommending, as a measure of precaution, that persons planning to travel to these destinations consider postponing all but essential travel. This temporary advice, which is an extension of travel advice previously issued for Guangdong Province and Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, China, will be reassessed in three weeks time.

Following global alerts about cases of SARS issued by WHO on 12 and 15 March, national authorities have heightened surveillance for suspect and probable cases. In many countries, prompt detection and isolation of initial cases have prevented
further transmission altogether or held additional cases to a very small number.

This alert is a highly unusual action made by the WHO. Alerts are usually put out by the CDC. WHO's actions imply the seriousness of a possible world epidemic.

There is an underlying question made by some who usually nest behind the scenes and never wish to be quoted. There are rumors that SARS may be part of an orchestrated agenda which could include US government officials. There have been hints the Bush Regime themselves are associated or even initiators, of this deadly bio-terrorist game.

Could this be a continuation of the "watch the bouncing ball" smoke and mirrors 'grand illusion'? Could there be more to my analogy of the frog slowly cooking in the stealth laden pot? Is it no longer safe even in my own country? Just who are the masters of this elaborate puppetry show?

Have you noticed the unprecedented quietness of our Congress and Senators? Why aren't the usual voices on both sides yelling at the top of their lungs? Is this the stillness before the storm? Am I in danger of losing all my rights as gifted in our "Bill of Rights"? Has someone or some "regime" hijacked the US Constitution? Is George W. Bush really the "Hero of Peace"?
Photo: http://www.earthchangestv.net/bushkiss.jpg

So many questions, so few answers. It feels like a nightmare in which I am trying to awake, yet it seems some unknown force is trying to keep me asleep. I have to ask once again..."is the world ending as I know it"?


North Americans may feel confused, as well they ought to, but already it seems that key Eurasian politicians are busy reformulating their strategies and arranging for new tactics in dealing with George Bush and the Imperial Faction. In Eurasia, the leader least understood and least visible to most of the world is Russia’s Putin. He is quietly emerging as one of the most effective and important leaders in the world. Putin is already taking control of resolving the crisis of North Korea, which he proposes to do jointly with China. More probable than not, this issue will be resolved peacefully without much U.S. action and thereafter the U.S. will gradually withdraw from Korea altogether.

With Putin’s active support, the Eurasian peoples are being emboldened to conceive of a planetary alliance far larger than the few countries of Western Europe. The greater part of Eurasia is being actively courted to form sufficient political and economic “superpower” to outweigh the military muscle of the arrogant Americans who have been tragically led by a combative, historically ignorant man far too deeply into Lake Hubris.

While the Eurasians arrange their coalitions, American elites will test the durability of their arrogance in Iraq. Already all social groups in Iraq are dissolving into a myriad of fractures which are too rich for North American minds to easily grasp. The whipsaw, sensationalizing, either/or mental processes of the American Mass Broadcast Media will make events in Iraq impossible to understand even as the media instant experts purport to reveal all. I suspect that the sooner American TV forgets about Iraq, the better off both Iraqi and America will be.

SIGN OF THE TIMES: IT LOOKS LIKE, America’s hot adventure “reality” show, “The Empire Strikes Back” HAS successfully keep much of the corporate scandals under the rug. Have you heard even a tiny bit about these scandals since the cliff-hangers started at the U.N. at the beginning of February? ARE YOU SURPRISED? Ken Lay, just a good ole boy Texan, the Presiding Officer of the rape of California Consumers, otherwise known as Enron, is still scott free with his crooked billions…But the Enron Wicked Web of greed and gross and egregious “taking advantage of everyone” is beginning to unravel. Enron is now suing Ken Lay directly for the return of some money. Enron and many other suppliers have been found guilty of overcharging California consumers and the judges are now toting up the bill, which will be in the billions. 2003 should be a great year for a continuing soap opera of scandalous corporate news about all of this but apparently the good ole boys have mastered the art of how to dodge and duck personal connections to any responsibility.

I have been running “Sign of the Times” for almost a year now. Almost nothing has changed in that department.

Keep checking out the Media Lens organization. http://www.medialens.org
They are providing some really good wake up antidote to the Orwellian Newspeak of the Imperial Faction.

As the next few weeks unfold, the “real story” of what happened in Iraq will progressively change its appearance as the over all facts begin to come into focus. There will be many additional flaps appear and new issues will raise ugly heads.

We still have ABSOLUTELY NO IDEA HOW MANY PEOPLE WERE KILLED AND INJURED IN IRAQ. Did you even notice? Did you notice that the TV Mass Broadcast Media still has not reported one of the truly juiciest stories out of Iraq, that the soldiers who found the huge cache of U.S. dollars also tried to directly liberate some of that cash? Do you wonder why?

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