EarthMonitor

Earth Changes Bulletin Update As Of April 1, 2003

see http://www.michaelmandeville.com/ebooks/
calendar2003/currentconditions.htm#polarmotion

FOR NEWBIES: The vortex tectonics paradigm of the earth holds that polar motion in the 6.5 year wobble cycle (Chandler’s) creates the major stress in the Earth’s crust which is released by lunar tidal forces each month in the form of earthquakes and volcanism. The acceleration in the motion of the drift of the poles and its relocation forces an increasing tempo in the shape shifting of the Equatorial zone, where 70% of tectonic activity occurs. Accordingly, earthquakes and volcanic activity should increase in frequency and magnitude.

PLANETS (all time coordinates here and elsewhere are in UTC)

The Moon this day is in its North Node but close to the Equator. It was NEW yesterday and will be in Apogee on April 4. The next Full Moon is April 16, and the Lunar Apogee will follow nine hours later on April 17 (in the UTC calendar). (Perigee = the Moon’s closest approach to the Earth during its monthly orbit which increases gravitational influence of the Moon by as much as 15%; Apogee = the Moon’s greatest distance from the Earth during its monthly orbit).

The next planetary alignment will be on April 6 with Mercury | Saturn. This will be followed on April 15 with a double alignment of the planets or Mercury | Jupiter with Venus | Neptune. (To see a chart of this double of alignment go to the Earth Changes 2003 Calendar and click on the planet link.
http://www.michaelmandeville.com/ebooks/calendar2003/calendar.htm

AS PREDICTED TWO WEEKS AGO: This double alignment is sure to bring out some stormy solar weather but it may not bring much of it to the Earth. Sunspots should go high, however, and so should earthquake activity related to the Full Moon on the 16th which is followed nine hours later by Perigee. This should be an interesting week for watching the cosmic vectors and their influences on the Earth. Naturally the last week in April should see a lot of Spring rains with major flooding in the usual places of the past few years.

See Earth Changes 2003 Almanac Calendar for additional details
http://www.michaelmandeville.com/ebooks/calendar2003/
The Almanac lays out the entire year in advance to allow you to find the best and worst periods of weather.

PLANET WATCHING: Currently Jupiter is very easy to find. If you look directly overhead in the Northern Hemisphere just after sunset you will easily find Jupiter to be the brightest star in the mid heavens.

SUNSPOTS
The events in the solar atmosphere which impact weather and climate patterns, the magnetic field and auroras, including forecasts for the week, month, and year ahead.

STILL CONTINUING: SOLAR WEATHER IS CHAOTIC AND EXTREMELY PETULANT. The solar sea is highly choppy. If this were the olden tribal days, the priests would say that the Gods are extremely angry at someone's recent actions on Earth. Wonder who that might be?

Over all, the sunspot average count for February was 46.4 and for March it rose to 61.5. Based on planetary alignments during April, the average sunspot count should be somewhere between these two numbers for April, but closer to March than February.

The sunspot numbers peaked on March 28 at 185 and then quickly dipped to 160 on April 1. Apparently this rise is showing up about 10 days in advance for the closing alignment of Mercury | Saturn on April 6. I doubt that this peak is done, it looks like it will hover at about this level and may indeed suddenly spike even higher anytime during the next few days.

CONFIRMED CORRECTED PROJECTION: - AS REPORTED TWO WEEKS AGO - the weather should be highly petulant during mid-March through to nearly the end of the Month. More major storms will dump large amounts of rain and snow.

COSMICALLY SPEAKING: THIS IS A LOUSY TIME FOR INVADING ANOTHER COUNTRY. The potential for sudden, chaotic, severe sandstorms in the Middle East are VERY HIGH.

THE NEXT WEEK SHOULD BRING SANDSTORMS AND OCCASIONAL RAIN INTO THE MESOPOTAMIAN VALLEY.

AS IT WAS TWO WEEKS AGO: Solar-induced magnetic fields and flux ARE AGAIN HIGHLY UNSTABLE. The Fluxgate Monitor at the U of Alaska showed a severe magnetic disturbance during the past 12 hours in the Earth’s Atmosphere. As of this moment, the Solar Wind Speed is a modest 452.6 km/s and at this hour it is pushing a modest density of only 2.3 protons/cm.

Jan Alvestad predicts: " The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to active April 2-4 due to high speed streams from coronal holes CH28 and CH29. Long distance medium wave (AM) band propagation along east-west paths over high and upper middle latitudes is very poor, propagation along north-south paths is fair. [Trans Atlantic propagation conditions are currently monitored every night on 1470 kHz. Dominant station tonight: Radio Cristal del Uruguay]"
See http://www.dxlc.com/solar/

All this means that you can expect the unexpected in weather and disturbances. Freakish sudden storms are likely. Winds and precipitation may set records in various areas.

Continue to expect anything with this Solar Cycle 23, even though THE HIGH PEAK IN SUNSPOT CYCLE 23 IS GONE. During the first two weeks of April, the sunspot counts should remain fairly high, but probably with a dip into 30-80 range on about April 4 through to 10, then peaking high again, possibly above 200, during about April 10 to 14 for the April 15 double alignment of the planets or Mercury | Jupiter with Venus | Neptune. By April 17 or so the sunspots should be back down in the low double digits and they should stay that way until about April 26 when they will rise again for the Venus | Uranus alignment on April 30 and the Mercury | Earth alignment on May 3.

Major Spring storm fronts should peak in their energy about six to 14 days after each of these sunspot peaks, with flood conditions appearing in impacted areas on about the 14th day after the sunspot peaks.

To follow these numbers, view the Solar Cycle 23 Chart at
http://www.michaelmandeville.com/earthmonitor/topten_monitor.htm

GLOBAL DROUGHT AND FLOOD WATCH
Stories and assessments about drought and flood conditions around the world; global information which provides the ability to assess the impacts to agriculture and the natural environment.

After two years of drought, late February and March brought rains which broke the pattern. After driving along the Mogollon Rim from an elevation of 2200 feet to 7000 feet on a trip from Black Canyon City to Snowflake during the last week of March, I can report enthusiastically that Arizona is progressively turning green everywhere. Areas which have seen no grass in two years are suddenly sprouting and two or three varieties have already formed up their seeds. Wild flowers in the lower elevations are in advanced stages of bloom and the bloom is probably good for another two weeks at least. Since we are likely to see some rain again within a week to ten days, the bloom may be good all month.

REPEAT FROM TWO WEEKS AGO: For the Southerly latitudes, the weather does not yet appear to have broken the drought pattern because of the hot Summer. But as the weather heads into the Fall pattern, normal rainfall patterns should begin to appear.

AS PREVIOUSLY PREDICTED: Expect things to be mild and relatively normal during the first week to tens days of April, followed by another wave of wet spring storms during the middle of April. The third week of April should be even more petulant following a dual set of planetary alignments. Expect a lot of flooding from heavy wet storms which lay down large quantities of water. Summer monsoons may be late and will be ended sooner than normal by the planetary alignments which begin in mid-August, most especially by the Mars | Earth alignment at the end of August.

For additional details, see
http://www.michaelmandeville.com/ebooks/calendar2003

EL NINO WATCH:

AS PREVIOUSLY PREDICTED: There may be a La Nina during the later part of 2003 and through part of 2004, but it is likely that it will be barely noticeable because of the accumulated “Global Warming” and the relatively high levels of volcanic heat venting in the Earth. The next El Nino is likely to appear in 2005 or 2006.

CHEMTRAILS
See http://www.deepspace4.com/pages/main/pagemain.htm

Dennis Kucinich, a U.S. Congressman now running for President on the Democratic ticket, reportedly introduced a bill to make Chemtrail spraying illegal (so say his supporters). He was forced to remove it from his bill by congressional “Leaders”. No details have yet been made available. This detail is significant because theoretically, FROM THE POINT OF VIEW OF THE MILITARY INDUSTRIAL AND REPUBLICRAT ESTABLISHMENT, DENIAL (TO THE SHEEPLE) IS BELIEVING. ACCORDINGLY PEOPLE BELIEVE THAT CHEMTRAILS, LIKE UFO’S, DO NOT EXIST. Keep telling that big lie and enough people keep believing it.

EARTHQUAKES
Around the world to see the current and potential patterns of seismic activity, with coverage of the windows of danger. I prepared this section by pulling out the Earth Changes 2003 Calendar which has everything plotted on it. You should too. Check out the Almanac as well, it discusses all of the windows for the year and even spotlights the two most dangerous windows.

CURRENT SYZYGY WINDOW: We are in an Apogee New Moon as of April 1 and the window should remain open until April 3. This window should theoretically produce less quakes than the Full Moon Perigee, but after the debacle of the Window concept and the no-show of the Full Moon Perigeen Quakes two weeks ago, who knows what is going to happen??????

In essence, activity picked up to about 14-16 quakes per day (mag 2.5 plus) right at the beginning of the Syzygy Window and held steady in that range of frequency through to April 1. Activity appears today to be dropping off but the day is not done. Very little can be said about the patterns and the magnitude was definitely on the low side overall.

NEXT SYZYGY WINDOW FOR THE NEW MOON: Starts about April 14 and runs through about April 18. This period should be fairly strong in both frequency and magnitude of earthquakes, definitely stronger than during this New Moon and the last Full Moon. BUT, since this same prediction failed for the last Full Moon Syzygy, who can say? Science fails here so talk to your favorite psychic.

RECENT EVENT OF INTEREST THIS PAST FEW DAYS

On April 2 two sizable quakes appeared in the Mid Atlantic Rift, a 6.3 cracker and a 5.0 aftershock (more can be expected).

Magnitude 6.3 NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC RIDGE
2003 April 02 03:43:11 UTC
Preliminary Earthquake Report
U.S. Geological Survey, National Earthquake Information Center
World Data Center for Seismology, Denver

Magnitude 6.3
Date-Time Wednesday, April 02, 2003 at 03:43:11 (UTC) - Coordinated Universal Time
Wednesday, April 02, 2003 at 01:43:11 AM local time at epicenter

Location 35.31N 35.64W
Depth 10.0 kilometers
Region NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC RIDGE
Reference 610 km (380 miles) SW of Santa Cruz das Flores, Azores, Portugal
720 km (445 miles) WSW of Horta, Azores, Portugal
930 km (580 miles) WSW of Ponta Delgada, Azores, Portugal
2385 km (1480 miles) W of LISBON, Portugal

For additional details see:
http://neic.usgs.gov/neis/bulletin/neic_scaj.html

To see the world quake chart by the USGS, click on
http://neic.usgs.gov/neis/current/

As during the New Moon Syzygy, for the most part quake activity was way down this last week, which is not correct for the syzygy window we entered into three days ago. The USGS chart (such charts show all quakes 1.0 and above) for the U.S. and Alaska show 357 quakes for the past seven days (which is lower than the last New Moon Syzygy of 371) with the USGS chart for California/Nevada showing 271 of these in California during the past seven days (down from the last New Moon Syzygy of 304).

Similarly, Hood had a micro quake after being silent for several weeks and the USGS chart for Long Valley Cauldera (Area) showed a running total of 17, which is down from 33 during the last New Moon Syzygy).

More normally, the Pacific Northwest and Yellowstone ran with the correct pattern.
The USGS Chart for the Pacific Northwest reveals 38 quakes (two week sum, up from 26 micro quakes during the last New Moon Syzygy) most of them scattered through the middle of the Puget Sound and along the Cascade Mountains of Washington State and down into Portland Oregon. The USGS Chart of Yellowstone Cauldera Area shows 14 micro quakes during the last week (up from 0 during the last New Moon Syzygy) and 14 quakes scattered throughout Utah (up from 7 during the last New Moon Syzygy).

FULL MOON WATCH ON COLIMA – POPO – COOS BAY – SAN ANDREAS
REMEMBER THE COSTA NOSTRA DAMUS PREDICTION: We will watch Coos Bay, San Andreas, Colima, Popo, very carefully.

THE PERIGEE WATCH IS REVEALING A STRONG REVERSE CORRELATION THAN THE ONE WE EXPECTED: The Full Moon Perigee Syzygies during the first few months of 2003 have become weaker rather than stronger as the Full Moon and New Moon moments drew closer together. THIS STATEMENT MAY BE WRONG: Their mutual influence should combine exponentially, not linearly. Along about the middle of April, we can expect the worst quake season which has been felt in many months. See the Earth Changes 2003 Almanac Calendar for timing details.

VOLCANOES
Around the world with the most interesting and relevant volcano stories; briefs on the likely eruptions as well as coverage of on-going activity.

It appears that the TimeStar prediction for an increase in volcanic activity March 11-23 was wrong. For additional details, see timestar@timestar.org, http://www.timestar.org

Hood popped once with a tiny micro quake, Yellowstone is waking again, but El Popo was down today offering only a 20 puff day yesterday. Centrapred reports for April 2 (16:00 GMT) that “CENAPRED has reported that in the last 24 hours, there were recorded 20 low to moderate intensity exhalations mainly accompanied by steam and gas. The other monitored parameters remain without important changes. At the moment of this report, the volcano can be clearly seen covered with snow and with a steam and gas emission (see image #1). The events recorded lately are related with the destruction of the lava dome inside the crater previously reported (see image #2). As long as there are remains of the dome, explosive activity is possible implying ash emissions and incandescent material ejections around the crater.”

Volcanic activity this past seven days is about the same as during the past three weeks. The Southwest Volcano Centre reports 34 volcanoes on the alert status list (same as two weeks ago), 5 volcanoes on the restless list (same as two weeks ago), and 20 on the active eruption list (up one from two weeks ago).

AG INDUSTRY WATCH
Because of the high load of stress which the current peak in the sunspots have placed on the Ag industry, we alert on the changing scene in agriculture and how these are likely to effect the broader economy.

AS PREVIOUSLY REPORTED: Famine reports confirm last year’s predictions. While the world’s attention is focused on a provocative military campaign ordered by George Bush Jr., famines in East Africa have left most of Ethiopia and other portions of Africa in dire straits. Some 38 million Africans are starving to death, which suggests that the U.S. sent the wrong things to the wrong countries in that quadrant of the world.

If people want to unify the world in peace, how about focusing world attention on dealing with that very real, imminent catastrophe.

AS PREVIOUSLY REPORTED: The drought damage to Central and Northern Arizona was truly huge, the largest eco-catastrophe I have ever witnessed at first hand. Well over a million acres of forest land, at least, just in Arizona, are now populated by large numbers of dead trees. In some ranges, all the trees of a certain type are dead, in other ranges, the percentages can vary from 10% to 90%. Pinions were the hardest hit, followed by Ponderosa. The incredibly hardy Juniper has also succumbed in some areas.

ECONOMIC WATCH

AS PREVIOUSLY PREDICTED: It is doubtful that any economic recovery will begin to be felt until much later in the year, probably not until Fall of 2003.

DITECH.COM ARBITRAGER:
4.625 (15 yr) and 5.25 (25 year) first line web quotes
I was using their rates as advertised on TV but this is too unrealiable. I am now going to switch to the their internet rates for better consistency. I have no prior comparative for these rates but these certainly are about as low as they will ever be. Basically, Ditech.com is telling us that it is difficult to find qualified borrowers, expects little expansion in the economy and thus does not believe that inflation is an issue. (I am going to watch how close the arbitrager for Ditech.com calls it. I am placing a bet on their interest rate calculations, which are so finely chiseled, they have to be running pretty sophisticated indicator stats. When they clearly go up at least two pegs within a month, even if they are just very small increments, you will know there is wind in the sails of the economy. When the numbers go down you know the economy is still trying to find bottom.)

GENERAL PREDICTION DJI AVERAGES: Conditions remain highly unstable and BEAR presence is still overwhelming. Weather, sandstorms, sudden ambushes in Iraq, airline debacles, another terrorist attack, surprise moves by Saddam or Osama, another dufus Bush administration move, more famine reports, and many other circumstances can easily cause flurries up and down in the DJI averages. Expect 200 to 500 point movements in as little as a day generally hovering around 8500 during the next several weeks. This number will gradually inch upwards to 9000 as the invasion of Iraq draws to a conclusion. Beyond this the number cannot remain until a real turn around is evident in the U.S. economy and so far we are empty-handed in this department.

AS PREVIOUSLY PREDICTED: As Iraqi soldiers and cities suddenly defect in large numbers, and if oil fields are not set afire, oil prices will plunge and stocks will climb until the next terrorist attack. If Alqaeda attacks do not occur within two weeks, the stock market will surge temporarily to 9000 and perhaps slightly higher. Any major adverse result in the American War On Iraq will see sudden downturns of one to a few days.

THIS WEEK’S DJI PREDICTION: “Stocks will continue to rally slowly upward and may close 8700, plus or minus 100. Condition prediction with the above General Prediction.

MAJOR ADVERSE CONTINGENCIES: Anti-war polarization and activities are still growing and may take new disruptive forms. A major assault of hackers on the Internet could cause enough disruption to slow the market and cause sudden temporary plunges. The SARS virus may disrupt air travel enough to cause another depressive wave to flow through the economy, which will send the stock market south by a long ways. Asian brokers are already discounting the economies of Hong Kong and Singapore.
WATCH EGYPT. If Egypt destabilizes and its government begins to fall prey to extremist pressures, much of the Mid-East is likely to be severely destabilized. Oil supplies then will be threatened and there may be sudden moves by oil rich governments to liquidate Western securities and cash in favor of heavy purchases of arms and expansion of their security forces. This will depress all stock markets SEVERELY. WATCH SYRIA: If Bush Administration functionaries antagonize Syria sufficiently, Syrian politicians (who are not hated internationally and have gained some stature by their normalization of Lebanon and reduction of terrorism) are fully able to polarize much of the Muslim AND Arabic world against the U.S. Any increase in this polarization will be devastating to the U.S. economy. WATCH EURO BOYCOTTS: German merchants are now withdrawing famous American brand names from visibility in some areas. Many Arab and Muslim nations have similar movements underway. These could become more potent over time. These withdrawals will directly impact the U.S. economy and they are currently tending towards a deepening contraction of the U.S. economy.

REPEAT FROM LAST WEEK: Don’t get fooled by major rallies. These rebounds will be too fast. A fundamental shift in the economy has to be felt before stocks begin to ride the next Bull. The DJI will spend many more months swamping around in the mid 8000’s.

HEALTH WATCH

The SARS virus is going to be a problem at least for awhile. Its greatest impact may be simply the hysteria it causes in various areas, such as the case of sniffles causing the quarantine of an airliner and a school. Martial law is always a possibility, ANYWHERE, and could grow to impact major metropolitan areas with nearly complete economic shutdowns for a few days to a few weeks. It appears to be a little early to draw any realistic conclusion about the rates of progression of SARS and the possibility of major economic impact. All we can do is hope that it will be as slow as it is currently, which will mean that it gradually will fade away as a crisis and remain just another form of pneumonia, which is already a killer of old people. WATCH HONG KONG and TORONTO. As Hong Kong and Toronto go, so go many major metropolitan areas.

Here is the latest story from Reuters Hong Kong.
http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story2&cid=570&ncid=753&e
=1&u=/nm/20030403/sc_nm/health_pneumonia_game_dc

GEO-POLITICAL WATCH
How are the sunspots likely to most effect human affairs during the weeks and months ahead?

SIGN OF THE TIMES: IT LOOKS LIKE, America’s hot adventure “reality” show, “The Empire Strikes Back” HAS successfully keep much of the corporate scandals under the rug. ARE YOU SURPRISED? Ken Lay, just a good ole boy Texan, the Presiding Officer of the rape of California Consumers, otherwise known as Enron, is still scott free with his crooked billions…But the Enron Wicked Web of greed and gross and egregious “taking advantage of everyone” is beginning to unravel. Enron is now suing Ken Lay directly for the return of some money. Enron and many other suppliers have been found guilty of overcharging California consumers and the judges are now toting up the bill, which will be in the billions. 2003 should be a great year for a continuing soap opera of scandalous corporate news about all of this but apparently the good ole boys have mastered the art of how to dodge and duck personal connections to any responsibility.

Keep checking out the Media Lens organization. http://www.medialens.org
They are providing some really good wake up antidote to the Orwellian Newspeak of the Imperial Faction.

Despite the worst political polarization the world has known since Vietnam, the Imperial Faction has successfully forced an American invasion of Iraq. Surreal it is and so it will remain. Everyone twists in the winds of change, no one knows what is going to happen next. Expect chaos and expect that no one will control the outcomes of this next several months.

MORE PROBABLE THAN NOT: Like Osama Bin Laden, Saddam Hussein and family may slowly fade away from view and will become permanently invisible. With an international fortune estimated into the billions of dollars, he may be able to arrange a location from which he and his sons can continue to foment guerilla warfare (terrorism) inside Iraq against U.S. occupation.

There are many possible outcomes to the current international polarization. Given the ludicrous concepts of imperialism, arrogance, bigotry, and fanaticism which abound on the international scene, the worst scenarios are most likely to play out.

Accordingly, more probable than not, the U.S. will come to desire a complete withdrawal from Iraq sooner than later. Iraq is wedged between two powerful autocratic societies which hate the U.S. Syria and Iran, though their politics are secular or fundamental, respectively, can easily foment a steady progression of terrorism across their borders inside Iraq against a U.S. occupation. In the face of the clear intentions of the Imperial Faction to “remake” the Middle East, these two heavily armed states may conclude that their best interests lie in forcing the U.S. to occupy Iraq like Israel occupies Palestine – with a never ending parade of violence.

In other words, they can and they may force the U.S. to maintain a few hundred thousand troops in Iraq to protect the oil fields, their nominal surrogate democratic government in Iraq, and their own military encampments. By this means Syria and Iran are the most likely to block any U.S. military efforts to topple other states. Empire always comes only with the high price of paying the costs of OCCUPATION. The best way to curtail the imperial impulse is to make the cost of occupation very high at the getgo.

Syria and Iran may then be able to force the U.S. into a negotiated settlement and an abandonment of the larger goals of the Imperial Faction. Unfortunately, it may take several years and many thousands of lives before the U.S. is able to extricate itself from such a hideous situation.

The die for this seems already cast, but hopefully the Euro peoples will be able to provide timely and useful leadership which mitigates some of the worst tendencies of the American and Arabian mass-minds.

Throughout the coming struggle, which will take many years to settle, the issue of depleted uranium will become larger and larger. The U.S. missile bombs and shells are leaving the toxic vapor of “depleted uranium” to haunt the Mesopotamian Valley for a long time. Knowing now what we know about America’s explosive munitions, namely that the residues poison all who come into contact with them and create severe health problems and genetic damage, their use IS THE SAME AS USING WEAPONS OF MASS DESTRUCTION. In effect, every one of these munitions is a “dirty bomb” and their KNOWING use as such in large quantities is indistinguishable from the “war crimes” and “crimes against humanity” which international treaties have outlawed. This dirty little secret in one of America’s bigger military hypocrisies.

Mass use of these weapons in Iraq will ignite radical politics AGAINST THE U.S. throughout Eurasia during the next generation and this may eventually sow so many seeds of discord and distrust that even the American dollar may lose its value as an international currency.

CURRENT WAR WATCH:

The current daily digest from Russian intelligence sources is clearly aimed at providing intelligent people much better comprehensive information than can be acquired from Western news wires and from through the Replicrat Warlock’s Mass Broadcast Sorcery. As will be seen from the daily digest provided by Russian Intelligence Sources, U.S. military action in Iraq is overworked with too few troops. Most of the towns have not been occupied yet, leaving huge islands of opposition. As well, coalition troops failed in a major initiative in Northern Iraq while taking comparatively heavy casualties which as of this date have NOT been reported in U.S. media sources.

Try http://www.aeronautics.ru/
and click on the daily update

Here is the update for April 2, 2003
http://www.aeronautics.ru/news/news002/iraqwar_ru_019.htm.
April 2, 2003, 1335hrs MSK (GMT +4 DST), Moscow - Exceptionally difficult and unstable situation has developed on the US-Iraqi front by the morning of April 1. The coalition troops are persistently trying to take control of the strategic "triangle" Karabela - Al-Khindiya - Al-Iskanderiya. At the same time the coalition units are continuing their advance toward Al-Kut and An-nu-Manyah, but so far the US forces were unable to take any of these towns. To move forward the US units are forced to leave behind large numbers of troops needed to blockade the towns remaining under Iraqi control. The An-Najaf and An-Nasiriya garrisons are still involved in active combat deep behind the coalition forward lines.

The coalition command had to deploy two brigades from the 101st Airborne Division to blockade and to storm An-Najaf and An-Nasiriya. These two brigades will replace elements of the US 1st Marine Division (the 15th Marine Expeditionary Unit under the command of Col. John Waldhauser) that has been fighting in this area for the past six days. These "heavy" attack brigades are currently being deployed to the area of intense fighting near Al-Hillah.

Rough estimates show that the territory "captured" by the coalition forces still contains at least 30,000 Iraqi regular troops and militia engaged in active combat. Military experts are already warning the US command about the danger of underestimating the enemy: doing so may seriously complicate the situation of the attacking forces and foil the coalition's very optimistic plans.

On the other hand, the Iraqi command is being forced to withdraw its troops under the protection of towns. Iraqis are also forced to minimize all active combat operations outside the city limits as the desert terrain maximizes the enemy's advantage in aviation and its technological superiority in reconnaissance and targeting systems. This robs the Iraqis of their mobility and forces them to resort to "fortress-like" type of warfare, which, clearly, is significantly reducing their combat effectiveness.

Near Karabela the command of the 3rd Mechanized Infantry Division has completely abandoned its plans to storm the town. After blocking Karabela on three sides the 3rd Infantry Division directed its main thrust toward the towns of Al-Musaib and Al-Khindiya. Heavy combat is continuing in this area for the second day. The US is continuously escalating the intensity of its attacks and is using nearly all artillery and tank units available to the strike group's command. Nevertheless, the coalition forces are still unable to penetrate the Iraqi defenses. The commander of the 3rd Infantry Division Major General Buford Blount is reporting fierce Iraqi resistance. According to the General, elements of the 2nd Iraqi Republican Guard "Medina" Division that are defending these positions maintain high combat potential and are repelling all attempts to break through their lines. During the past day and today's early morning the [coalition] field commanders have reported the loss of up to 5 tanks, 7-10 APCs and IFVs and no less than 9 killed. At least one helicopter was hit and made an emergency landing. Two more helicopters reported taking serious damage and their situation so far is unknown. Iraqi losses [near Karabela], based on the US reports from the battlefield, include at least 300 killed and up to 30 destroyed tanks and APCs. In the morning the coalition forces have ceased the attack and now the Iraqi positions are being engaged by aviation. The next [coalition] attack is anticipated during the night.

Heavy fighting is continuing in the town of Al-Hillah. Despite strong aviation and artillery support the US Marine units are still unable to strengthen their positions on the left bank of the Euphrates and to push the Iraqi forces out of the town. During the past 24 hours the US Marines in Al-Hillah lost up to 5 armored vehicles; at least 10 soldiers were killed or wounded. According to the reports by the US commanders, the Iraqi losses during this time amount to at least 100 killed; 10 reinforced strongholds inside the town have been destroyed; there are reports of 80 Iraqis captured during a cleanup operation in the occupied part of the town.

A crisis situation has developed in the area of Al-Divania. Having encountered no initial Iraqi opposition elements of the US Marine 2nd Expeditionary Unit begun advancing toward the town but were met with heavy artillery and mortar fire and were forced to assume defensive positions resorting to close combat. The exchange of fire continued for nearly seven hours resulting in up to 12 destroyed US tanks and APCs and up to 20 killed or wounded Marines. Currently the Iraqi positions are being attacked by artillery and aviation.

Yesterday's attempts by the US troops to storm the part of An-Nasiriya on the left bank [of the Euphrates] yielded no results. After moving behind the Iraqi positions, while simultaneously attacking them from the front, the US troops still were unable to break the Iraqi defenses and by morning were forced to return to the their starting positions. The coalition losses in this engagement, according to reports by [the US] field commanders, were 2 killed and up to 12 wounded; a [US] helicopter took a hit and made an emergency landing in the northern part of An-Nasiriya.

Also no results came from the coalition attempts to capture An-Najaf. All US attacks were repelled. There have been reports of 3 destroyed APCs and at least 5 killed or wounded coalition troops.

Near Basra the British forces are still unable to tighten their blockade of the city. During the night the Iraqis attacked British units near the village of Shujuh and threw the British back 1.5-2 kilometers. According to the Iraqi reports, at least 5 British soldiers were killed in this attack. The British, on the other hand, have reported 2 missing and 4 wounded soldiers. Iraqis have reported that a destroyed British tank and two APCs were left behind on the battlefield.

Tactical attack units from the US 82nd Airborne Division and the 22nd SAS Regiment, earlier deployed to northern Iraq near the town of Al-Buadj, were destroyed and dispersed as the result of a daylong battle with the Iraqi troops. The exact number of [coalition] losses is still being verified. Intercepted radio communications show that the coalition troops are retreating in small groups and have no exact information about their own losses. Currently the remaining units are trying to reach the Kurdish-controlled territory. It is believed that up to 30 [coalition] soldiers were killed or captured by the Iraqis.

Military analysts believe that today and tomorrow will decide the outcome of the attack on Baghdad that begun two days ago. If the coalition forces fail to break the Iraqi defenses, then by the weekend the US will be forced to curtail all attacks and to resort to positional warfare while regrouping forces and integrating them with the fresh divisions arriving from the US and Europe. Such a tactical pause in the war, although not a complete halt in combat operations (the coalition command will continue trying to use localized attacks to improve its positions), may last seven to fourteen days and will lead to a full re-evaluation of all coalition battle plans.

(source: iraqwar.ru, 04-02-03, translated by Venik)

ALL ELSE AS STATED TWO WEEKS AGO

Many expect that a wave of catastrophic political change will be unleashed in the Arab Nations as well as in many other Muslim countries. Some destabilization most likely will come as Alqaeda is sure to seek to use this invasion as its rallying cry and as its justification for another wave of terrorism attacks, especially in the United States.

Notice how adroitly Osama Bin Laden has outmaneuvered George Bush, even exactly as he stated several years ago he intended to do with the Americans. The U.S. is expanding direct economic and military dominance over the Middle-East with rifles and bombs. Osama Bin Laden can now claim that his hideous campaign of random terror is not terrorism at all, that it is in fact a campaign of self-defense against an alien, invading army in the service of arrogant, deceitful imperialists whose way of life is corrosively destructive to the way of life outlined in the Koran. Most unfortunately, for fundamentalist Muslims caught in slavish loyalty to literal interpretations of the Koran, Osama’s line will be the real story.

It is easy to see thusly that Saddam will soon disappear but not Osama Bin Laden nor a growing legion of fundamentalist soldiers who emulate him and who seek the destruction of the Great Satan. From this we may infer that the Imperial Faction may handily win a minor war against Saddam Hussein but in doing so the Imperial Faction will ignite a much larger struggle which will be fought over the next generation.

The political cost already is very high. The Imperial Faction has seized such control of the American government that the constitution no longer rules process nor limits the laws authorized by Congress nor constrains the actions of the Executive. Clearly we can see that the U.S. Constitution is no longer an effective document and some major renovation work will be required during the coming decade. Refurbishing the constitution to preserve a Republic and stop the drift to fascism will require several major changes to shore up its various provisions for the separation of powers and make it immune from the acidic effects of money. In the meanwhile, this leaves Americans living an increasingly uncomfortable hypocrisy which will only get worse under the moronic thinking processes of George Bush Jr. and his partners in the Imperial Faction.

This in turn will increase the bitterness of many factions in the U.S. and indeed both political parties are already in the beginning processes of disintegration. Republican conservatives (from among the non-corporate set) are already calling the so-called neo-conservatives (those who support the Imperial Faction) as Stalinists or as fascists and this dissension is going to grow louder and louder. They are already organizing to depose the Republican Party as it is. Meanwhile the social-democrats (the so-called left) are becoming so hardened against the corporate faux-centrists who control the Democratic Party under the Clinton label that they will be highly likely to destroy the Democratic Party than play along with corporate jet-setters as during the past generation.

As politics within the United States increasingly fractures, politics external to the United States is likely to increasingly unify in opposing American policies which are seen as self-serving. The French, Germans, and Russians have clearly consolidated their foreign policies and intend to work very hard at making the United Nations work as a world institution to preserve peace and constrain grandiose impulses by American factions.

The cooperation of the Eurasians is a great and wonderful change in the world, but of course there are a great many cretins in this country who will see this as a threat. They will seek in all ways possible to undermine a rapprochement of American policy with world policy.

There are so many other great dangers and conceivable trends that it is better to leave them alone until events show us we have not yet imagined how this year 2003, a 23 year, the mystery school number of definitive transformation, will turn out. I rather expect that our imaginations are inadequate to the task.

EarthMonitor