EarthMonitor

Earth Changes Bulletin Update As Of April 16, 2003

You have heard of the Weather Report? Here exclusively is this week’s "Earth Report" - a short review of the “big picture” about how the dynamic changes in the Sun and the Earth are effecting our lives more and more intensely, with the latest prognostications and predictions for weathermen, farmers, investors, businessmen, and every man.

This update is keyed to the Earth Changes 2003 Almanac Calendar. The framework for understanding these updates and much of the current status information is maintained in capsule form in the Almanac at the locations cited in the text of this Update.

On the geophysical front, the Gods are sleeping. As last week, all tectonic level is relatively quiescent. Seismic activity is below normal for the Full Moon and volcanic activity picked up slightly even though overall activity is muted. The April 15 planetary alignments failed to produce major sunspot peaks. The Earth’s atmosphere is returning more and more to normal although robost solar wind streams from a Sun which is still fairly hyperactive are and will produce sudden random chaos in weather patterns. These will probably no longer produce history-making extremes. Early spring floods will be “normal” and far less of a problem than during the past few years. Now is probably the time to plant in earnest.

For the geopolitical front, all previous conflict activity is muting out, apparently transmuting into a new phase. Though there are still no signs of an upsurge out of the recession, growth Bulls are begging to make noises. The stock markets are still extremely nervous but they seem poised now for a long gradual climb back up. The dynamics of the past nine months have polarized, hardened, and crystallized attitudes, behaviors, associations, and peoples in new ways in large numbers. These shifts are now “fructifying”, which is a word Cayce used to describe changes which are in the invisible stage of evolution. The geopolitical world has changed now since the invasion of Iraq far more than after 911 and the implications of these massive new changes are as invisible in the main as the aftermath of 911 could be perceived on 912.

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Program Thesis: What are we trying to do with the Earth Changes Bulletin?

Most news media do not handle technical and scientific subjects like geology and earth sciences very well. They don't understand the causes and effects of activities in the Sun and Earth. Accordingly, they often do not understand if, when, how, why to report earthquakes, volcanic activity, global warming effects The treatment often sounds absent-minded, poorly qualified, and frequently contains various technical errors. Seldom is the treatment entertaining and genuinely educational.

Based on new scientific principles which have emerged during the past thirty years, many of the dynamic activities of the Sun and Earth can be linked together to see how a range of effects are linked together. This makes it possible to paint "the big picture" into a perspective which explains many diverse events and processes, especially climate and weather patterns such as global warming and El Nino. From the "big picture", long range predictions can be made for weeks and even months ahead.

The result is sophisticated cutting-edge information which is objective, balanced, astute, relevant, and can be easily seen and appreciated by lay audiences. The perspective is generally global, seldom parochial.

For the framework of concepts, terms, and current conditions which are used or described in the these Bulletins, see the Earth Changes 2003 Almanac Calendar.

To see the internet resources which are used to prepare this Update, take a look at the Earth Monitor front page
http://www.michaelmandeville.com/earthmonitor
If anyone has any suggestions about evolving these pages, now is a good time as I devote a few minutes each day to revising menus and adding new links.


INTERNET WATCH:

No virus loads to speak of, everything seems to be working fine on the net except for a growing number of my links which no longer work; complainers are hereby required to tell WHICH DAMN LINK ON WHAT PAGE. THERE ARE ABOUT 3000 WEBPAGES ON MY SITES.

Receipt of spam scam email in my email boxes is still way up. Anybody have a clue?

POLAR MOTION
What is happening to the motion of the Earth.

The X Wave in Chandler’s Wobble has just passed its MIN. Polar Motion seems to be smoothing out after two bumps in the wave form which has just passed. The X Plot now shows the two “dents” in the X Wave very clearly. These are not necessarily a portent of anything, they may just reflect the output of the sun. It will be some time before I try to sort it out (I prefer the lazy man’s approach of waiting for the pattern to repeat).
http://www.michaelmandeville.com/earthmonitor/topten_monitor.htm

AS PREVIOUSLY REPORTED: It will now head toward the last annual MAX in this current 6.5 year cycle of Chandler’s Wobble. This annual MAX should be achieved about the beginning of October of this year. This MAX will define the MAX for this entire current cycle. When this 6.5 year MAX point is achieved, the average location of the North Spin Axis can be computed and thus the current rate of shifting in the location of the wobbling pole can also be computed by comparison with the previous cycles.

REPEATED: PRELIMINARY FIGURE FOR RECENT DISPLACEMENT: This is a preliminary indication which needs more work: the average location of the pole appears to have shifted possibly as much as 91.1 inches or 231.5 centimeters since the beginning of 1996. That implies an average rate of shifting of the poles since 1996 of 13 inches/yr. or 33 centimeters/year. This rate is substantially higher than it has been during most of the 20th century. What the rate of acceleration may be I cannot determine at the current time. Is the crust of the Earth currently slipping over the molten mantle at a faster rate? Probably yes.

To see the current graph of polar motion, see
http://www.michaelmandeville.com/earthmonitor/topten_monitor.htm
Scroll down the page until you get to the black and white graphs with show the x and y coordinates of the North Spin Axis on two separate graphs.

For additional current details: see http://www.michaelmandeville.com/ebooks/calendar2003/currentconditions.htm#polarmotion

FOR NEWBIES: The vortex tectonics paradigm of the earth holds that polar motion in the 6.5 year wobble cycle (Chandler’s) creates the major stress in the Earth’s crust which is released by lunar tidal forces each month in the form of earthquakes and volcanism. The acceleration in the motion of the drift of the poles and its relocation forces an increasing tempo in the shape shifting of the Equatorial zone, where 70% of tectonic activity occurs. Accordingly, earthquakes and volcanic activity should increase in frequency and magnitude.

PLANETS (all time coordinates here and elsewhere are in UTC)

The Moon this day is in its South Node and is now just slightly past FULL this afternoon followed by the Lunar Perigee nine hours later in the wee early hours of April 17 (in the UTC calendar). (Perigee = the Moon’s closest approach to the Earth during its monthly orbit which increases gravitational influence of the Moon by as much as 15%; Apogee = the Moon’s greatest distance from the Earth during its monthly orbit).

We just passed a double planetary alignment on April 15 (actually we are still mostly in it) composed of Mercury | Jupiter and Venus | Neptune. (To see a chart of this double alignment go to the Earth Changes 2003 Calendar and click on the planet link (look for the YES on the Date Line for April 15.
http://www.michaelmandeville.com/ebooks/calendar2003/calendar.htm

Two more planetary alignments will straddle the New Moon on May 1: Venus | Uranus on April 30 and Mercury | Earth on May 3.

See Earth Changes 2003 Almanac Calendar for additional details
http://www.michaelmandeville.com/ebooks/calendar2003/
The Almanac lays out the planets and the lunar phases for entire year in advance to allow you to find the best and worst periods of weather, earthquake activity, ethereal “lunar” influences, etc.

PLANET WATCHING:

NASA EXPLAINS HOW TO OBSERVE MERCURY DIRECTLY JUST AT SUNSET: “Mercury never ventures very far from the Sun, which makes the planet difficult to see. This week, however, is a good time to spot it--especially on April 16th when Mercury will be about 18o above the horizon at sunset (as viewed from mid-northern latitudes). Step outside just after local sunset, look low and to the west. The elusive planet will be there shining like a 1st magnitude star.”
It looks like a very very tiny pin prick of light, very intense but smaller in size than the other stars and planets you typically notice. Here is NASA’s fact sheet on Mercury, this Thoth, Ra’s messenger to the Gods:
http://sse.jpl.nasa.gov/features/planets/mercury/mercury.html


Jupiter: Jupiter is still very easy to find. If you look directly overhead in the Northern Hemisphere just after sunset you will easily find Jupiter to be the brightest star in the mid heavens.

Venus & Mars, both should be visible at the same time but very far apart in the very wee early hours before dawn, say about 3 AM.

SUNSPOTS
The events in the solar atmosphere which impact weather and climate patterns, the magnetic field and auroras, including forecasts for the week, month, and year ahead.

Sunspots counts are WAY down this past several days

INCORRECT PROJECTION: I have been projecting a large sunspot count during the last few days for the current planetary alignment. Last week I predicted” “This should give us a fairly fat peak in the sunspot counts in the range of 170 to 220 which should commence to rise again in a day or so from today’s date.” WRONG, says the fickle finger of fate. Sunspot peak was narrow and at a miniscule 85 on April 9, about six days early. The current count as of yesterday is at about 55.

The angle which separated these alignments was 90 degrees, which may have served to defocus the emergence of sunspot vortices. The maximum peak was only 85. This is an important piece of learning: double alignments may actually reduce sunspot counts and/or alignments of inner planets with the inner planets are not a sure bet, especially under this type of pairing. THIS IS ANOTHER GREAT SCHOOL TERM PAPER PROJECT, LOOKING BACK AT THE PAST 10 YEARS OR SO OF ALIGNMENTS AND SUNSPOT COUNTS TO ANALYZE CORRELATIONS WITH DOUBLE ALIGNMENTS. I HAVE ALL THE DATA IN EXCEL SPREADSHEET FILES ALL LINKED TO GRAPHS. I WILL GLADLY SEND THEM TO ANY TAKERS ALONG WITH A COPY OF HOME PLANET SOFTWARE.

PREDICTION FOR THE REMAINDER OF APRIL: Despite the lack of performance for the current double alignments, the sunspot counts for this next one should be a double pointed peak over 100, up to as high as 190 or so, and this peak should commence about April 20, reach final high about April 26-28, and then precipitously decline into the range of 10 – 30. This alignment should produce sunspot counts well above 100 mainly because it is Mercury aligning with Earth. We shall see.

AS PREVIOUSLY REPORTED: Over all, the sunspot average count for February was 46.4 and for March it rose to 61.5. Based on planetary alignments during April, the average sunspot count should be somewhere between these two numbers for April, but closer to March than February.

Even though the sunspot counts are way down, the SOLAR WEATHER tends to remain CHAOTIC AND EXTREMELY PETULANT, as has been so much the case this past two months. Solar-induced magnetic fields and flux ARE AGAIN HIGHLY UNSTABLE. The Fluxgate Monitor at the U of Alaska showed TWO HUGE severe magnetic disturbances during the past 24 hours in the Earth’s Atmosphere. As of this moment, the Solar Wind Speed is a brisk 690.9 km/s and at this hour but it is pushing very modest density of only 1.4 protons/cm.

The magnetic disturbances are likely induced by a rapid stream of solar wind flowing from a coronal hole (in the Sun’s atmosphere). NASA reports: “Earth is once again inside a high-speed solar wind stream flowing from a coronal hole on the Sun. Geomagnetic activity reached G2-storm levels on April 16th, sparking auroras for a few hours. More auroras are possible on April 17th--especially at high latitudes: e.g., New Zealand, southern Australia, northern Europe, Canada, Alaska and other northern US states such as Wisconsin and Michigan. Because nights are shortening in the northern hemisphere and lengthening in the southern hemisphere, southern sky watchers could be favored with a better view of the auroras.”

NASA predicts that there is a 35% to 45% possibility of major solar storms which could impact the Earth.

Jan Alvestad reports: “A large trans equatorial southern hemisphere coronal hole (CH32) was in a geoeffective position on April 11-13, CH32 has become smaller over the last rotation. A small coronal hole (CH33) in the southern hemisphere will likely rotate into a geoeffective position on April 18. A coronal hole (CH34) in the northern hemisphere will rotate into a geoeffective position on April 18-19.

No doubt then, solar influences on the Earth’s atmosphere will remain petulant for the next several days. Expect indeed at

Jan Alvestad predicts: “The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to active on April 16-17 due to a high speed stream from coronal hole CH32, quiet to unsettled is likely on April 18-20 while high speed coronal hole streams will cause unsettled to active conditions on April 21-22. Long distance medium wave (AM) band propagation along east-west paths over high and upper middle latitudes is likely to remain very poor until at least April 19. Propagation along north-south paths is fair and is expected to remain fair until at least April 18”
See http://www.dxlc.com/solar/

As last week, all this means that you can expect the unexpected in weather and disturbances. Freakish sudden storms are likely. Winds and precipitation may continue to set records in various areas. AURORA WATCHING SHOULD BE GREAAAAAAAAT for the next week.

AND, ALTHOUGH THE SUNSPOT COUNTS WERE NOT AS PREDICTED

DIDN’T WE CALL THE WEATHER OF THE PAST FEW DAYS RIGHT ON!!!
It even rained here in Black Canyon City yesterday a little after the major snows fell in the Rockies. This fast moving storm front will be hitting the Great Lakes no later than tomorrow.

Watch out for the development of freak floods in some areas, though it looks like storm fronts are scattered enough in North America so that widespread flooding will not appear within the next couple of weeks.

To follow these numbers, view the Solar Cycle 23 Chart at
http://www.michaelmandeville.com/earthmonitor/topten_monitor.htm

GLOBAL DROUGHT AND FLOOD WATCH
Stories and assessments about drought and flood conditions around the world; global information which provides the ability to assess the impacts to agriculture and the natural environment.

Given the failure of the sunspots to peak up high for this double alignment of the planets, DO NOT get ready for another big surge in stormy weather. Theoretically, we are off the hook until the end of the first week in May, knock on wood. Weather should be unpredictable as is typical for this time in Spring but the weather should not create extremes.

The addition of another bit of rain, with probably another bit on the way in a day or so, will extend the ability of the wildflowers to bloom in Arizona, probably into May. Given the extensive broadcast of seeds from the prolificate bloom two years ago, before the drought, is causing major changes in our area. We are being intensively re-colonized by four different types of wildflowers, jojoba, and sage. Young plants are springing up everywhere at the 2200 foot elevation level and the ranchlands at 4000 feet are growing a real good crop of real grass for the first time in 24 months. The grasses in Arizona are well adjusted for this type of ecosystem. They stay short in stalk so they can produce a seed head very quickly. They will all be mature in another two weeks.

For additional details, see
http://www.michaelmandeville.com/ebooks/calendar2003

EL NINO WATCH:

AS PREVIOUSLY PREDICTED: There may be a La Nina during the later part of 2003 and through part of 2004, but it is likely that it will be barely noticeable because of the accumulated “Global Warming” and the relatively high levels of volcanic heat venting in the Earth. The next El Nino is likely to appear in 2005 or 2006.

CHEMTRAILS
See http://www.deepspace4.com/pages/main/pagemain.htm

EARTHQUAKES
Around the world to see the current and potential patterns of seismic activity, with coverage of the windows of danger. I prepared this section by pulling out the Earth Changes 2003 Calendar which has everything plotted on it. You should too. Check out the Almanac as well, it discusses all of the windows for the year and even spotlights the two most dangerous windows.

As reported last week:
OUR TRACK RECORD FOR QUAKES FOR THE LAST TWO MONTHS HAS BEEN TERRIBLE. I HAVE NO IDEA WHY THE QUAKES ARE NOT FALLING OBEDIENTLY INTO THEIR SYZYGY WINDOWS. SOMETHING ELSE HAS BEEN IN PLAY AND I HAVE NO IDEA WHAT.

The largest crop of quakes for the past seven days, counting from today backwards, was April 10th, about 19 quakes 2.5 and above. That should have been a LOW point of 10 quakes or less in seismic activity. Go figure. Berkland has no predictions for April, so I cannot rely on him.

We are now in Full Moon Perigee Syzygy. So far both frequency and magnitude is pretty depressed, running about 8 to 10 in frequency, generally small and unnoticed in magnitude. It looks like this Perigee is another bust, worse than the last two.

RECENT EVENT OF INTEREST THIS PAST FEW DAYS

The biggest quake of the last seven days.
Magnitude 6.2 SOUTH OF PANAMA
2003 April 11 06:12:54 UTC

This one was in the Pacific Ocean Bottom and apparently had little impact. No data has been attached to the file for this quake.

Preliminary Earthquake Report
U.S. Geological Survey, National Earthquake Information Center
World Data Center for Seismology, Denver
Date-Time Friday, April 11, 2003 at 06:12:54 (UTC) - Coordinated Universal Time
Friday, April 11, 2003 at 01:12:54 AM local time at epicenter
Location 7.03N 82.34W
Depth 10.0 kilometers
Region SOUTH OF PANAMA
Reference 155 km (95 miles) S of David, Panama
195 km (120 miles) SW of Santiago, Panama
245 km (150 miles) WSW of Las Tablas, Panama
380 km (235 miles) SW of PANAMA CITY, Panama
Source USGS NEIC (WDCS-D)
More data at
http://neic.usgs.gov/neis/bulletin/neic_slaj.html

QUAKE PATTERNS

One of many quakes a few days ago in the Aegean Sea near Turkey killed a small number of people. The News was so full of War that this quake went unreported in U.S. Media, along with several others in the area.

Generally, quake activity appears to have been highly random around the world. The predominant hot spots easily stood out with several quakes in each of the Aegean Coast of Turkey, off the East Coast of Japan, Southern California, and a few hits in the Great Rift in the bottom of the Oceans, especially in the Indian Ocean and the Mid Atlantic.

To see the world quake chart by the USGS, click on
http://neic.usgs.gov/neis/current/

It appears that Baja California Plate is becoming more active. Two quakes in the Salton Sea area may be followed by larger quakes during the next few days around the edges of the Baja Plate where it grinds against North America.

The USGS charts (such charts show all quakes 1.0 and above) for the U.S. and Alaska show 319 quakes for the past seven days (which is up as it should be but not by much from last week’s 291) with the USGS chart for California/Nevada showing 246 of these in California during the past seven days (which is up as it should be but not by much from last week’s 227).

As last week, relatively speaking, California continues to show a substantially higher rate of seismic activity than its normal historical pattern vis a vis Alaska. Normally, Alaska show more seismic activity than California, which makes it the top site in North America and one of the top five most active areas in the world.

The USGS Chart of Yellowstone Cauldera Area shows 29 microquakes during the last week (way up from 5 last week) and 49 quakes scattered throughout Utah (up from 31 last week).

Now this week’s trend buckers. Hood had no new microquakes (down from last week’s one new quake) and the USGS chart for Long Valley Cauldera (Area) showed a running total of 10, which is down from 14 last week). The USGS Chart for the Pacific Northwest reveals 22 quakes (two week sum, down from 27 microquakes last week) most of them scattered through the middle of the Puget Sound.

FULL MOON WATCH ON COLIMA – POPO – COOS BAY – SAN ANDREAS
REMEMBER THE COSTA NOSTRA DAMUS PREDICTION: We will watch Coos Bay, San Andreas, Colima, Popo, very carefully.

AS REPORTED LAST WEEK: THE PERIGEE WATCH IS REVEALING A STRONG REVERSE CORRELATION THAN THE ONE WE EXPECTED: The Full Moon Perigee Syzygies during the first few months of 2003 have become weaker rather than stronger as the Full Moon and New Moon moments drew closer together. THIS STATEMENT IN THE EARTH CHANGES ALMANAC MAY BE WRONG: Their mutual influence should combine exponentially, not linearly. Along about the middle of April, we can expect the worst quake season which has been felt in many months. See the Earth Changes 2003 Almanac Calendar for timing details.

VOLCANOES
Around the world with the most interesting and relevant volcano stories; briefs on the likely eruptions as well as coverage of on-going activity.

El Popo followed Long Valley this week and refused to listen to Yellowstone. It was again down for the second week in a row, offering only a 6 puff day yesterday. Centrapred reports for April 9 (16:00 GMT) that “in the last 24 hours the Popocatepetl volcano activity remained in a steady level. There were 6 low intensity exhalations accompanied by steam and gas emissions. Yesterday at 21:22 h (local) it was detected a volcanotectonic microearthquake with magnitude 2.2 located at 4 km deep and 1km to the east from the crater. The other monitored parameters remain without important changes. At this moment the volcano can be seen with a light steam and gas emission (see image # 1). As long as there are remains of the dome, which was confirmed recently (see image #2), explosive activity is possible implying ash emissions and incandescent material ejections around the crater.”

Following Yellowstone, not Popo, Volcanic activity this past seven days is up slightly from the past three weeks. The Southwest Volcano Centre reports 35 volcanoes on the alert status list (same as last week), 5 volcanoes on the restless list (same as last five weeks), and 22 on the active eruption list (up 2 from last week).

AG INDUSTRY WATCH
Because of the high load of stress which the current peak in the sunspots have placed on the Ag industry, we alert on the changing scene in agriculture and how these are likely to effect the broader economy.

AS PREVIOUSLY REPORTED: Famine reports confirm last year’s predictions. While the world’s attention is focused on a provocative military campaign ordered by George Bush Jr., famines in East Africa have left most of Ethiopia and other portions of Africa in dire straits. Some 38 million Africans are starving to death.

If people want to unify the world in peace, truly making peace,

IT IS NOW TIME TO MOVE PAST IRAQ AND MOVE ONTO THE ISSUE OF FAMINE IN AFRICA. This IS the world’s humanitarian catastrophe.

ECONOMIC WATCH

AS PREVIOUSLY PREDICTED: It is doubtful that any economic recovery will begin to be felt until later in the year, probably not until Fall of 2003.

BUT SIGNS CAN ALREADY BE DETECTED THAT THE RECESSION IS OVER. BULLS ARE MAKING MORE NOISE IN ALL THE MEDIA.

DITECH.COM ARBITRAGER:
4.625 (15 yr) and 5.25 (30 year) first line web quotes – SAME AS LAST WEEK

Their TV ad rates are back to what they were for most of March. now up to 5.25 and 5.55 for short and long term rates. The higher rates reported last week may have been based on CNN broadcasting the wrong ad.

Basically, Ditech.com is telling us that it is slightly less difficult to find qualified borrowers, and that they expect a little more demand for money, which suggests a slight expansion in the economy may have begun.

(About Ditech Quotes: I am going to watch how close the arbitrager for Ditech.com calls it. I am placing a bet on their interest rate calculations, which are so finely chiseled, they have to be running pretty sophisticated indicator stats. When they clearly go up at least two pegs within a month, even if they are just very small increments, you will know there is wind in the sails of the economy. When the numbers go down you know the economy is still trying to find bottom.)

EURO WATCH
In May 2002, the Euro was priced at about $1.10. Today it closed down again at about $.91.5. The Dollar appears to be continuing its 12 month slide.

PREDICTION REPEATED FROM LAST WEEK: The value of the dollar will hold firm near this point for a few weeks and begin to climb back up as international confidence begins to build upon the realization that all the dire things which could have gone wrong this past few months most fortunately did not.

GENERAL PREDICTION DJI AVERAGES: Conditions remain highly unstable but the worst is probably breaking now. BEAR presence is still strong but Bull energy IS BEGINNING TO MANIFEST.

THE STOCK MARKET PERFORMED AS PREDICTED LAST WEEK: For the moment, expect 200 to 500 point movements in as little as a day generally hovering around 8200-8500 during the next several weeks. This number will gradually inch upwards to 9000 as the invasion of Iraq draws to a conclusion.

LAST WEEK’S CLOSING DJI PREDICTION WAS 100 points high: “Stocks will rally slowly upward and may close 8500, plus or minus 200. Condition prediction with the above General Prediction.” The market closed the week at 8203.

I AM LETTING BOTH OF THESE PREDICTIONS RIDE AGAIN FOR NEXT WEEK.

AS PREVIOUSLY STATED: Beyond this the number cannot remain until a real turn around is evident in the U.S. economy. So far we are empty-handed in this department, BUT IT IS LIKELY THAT A SPRING UPTURN IS BEGINNING. It may be more strongly evident within a month. Any major adverse result in the American War On Iraq will see sudden downturns for one to a few days BUT THESE ARE GOING TO BE INCREASINGLY UNLIKELY.

MAJOR ADVERSE CONTINGENCIES: Far fewer than last two weeks.
THIS ONE IS NOW GROWING MORE DOUBTFUL: The SARS virus may disrupt air travel enough to cause another depressive wave to flow through the economy, which will send the stock market south by a long ways. Asian brokers are already discounting the economies of Hong Kong and Singapore. – THE CURVE OF EXPANSION IS NOT GEOMETRIC. THERE IS NO EPIDEMIC UNDER WAY. THERE ARE FAR MORE PEOPLE WHO DIE EVERYDAY FROM REGULAR PNEUMONIA. WHY IS THIS SUCH AN HYSTERIA? THERE MUST BE THINGS GOING ON ABOUT THIS UNDER THE COVERS.

THIS IS ALSO GROWING MORE DOUBTFUL: WATCH SYRIA: If Bush Administration functionaries antagonize Syria sufficiently, Syrian politicians (who are not hated internationally and have gained some stature by their normalization of Lebanon and reduction of terrorism) are fully able to polarize much of the Muslim AND Arabic world against the U.S. Any increase in this polarization will be devastating to the U.S. economy. – WASHINGTON INSIDERS HAVE HEAVILY LEAKED THAT THE BELLICOSE “MEGAPHONE” WHICH BUSH IS USING TO SHOUT AT SYRIA IN PUBLIC FOR ALL THE WORLD TO HEAR IS JUST SCHOOL YARD BULLYING, THERE IS NO PLANED REAL PRESSURE PROGRAM AGAINST SYRIA.

WATCH EURO BOYCOTTS: They are now less likely to gather steam, yet still they are quite disturbing. German merchants are now withdrawing famous American brand names from visibility in some areas. Many Arab and Muslim nations have similar movements underway. These could become more potent over time. These withdrawals will directly impact the U.S. economy and they are currently tending towards a deepening contraction of the U.S. economy.

REPEAT FROM LAST WEEK: Don’t get fooled by major rallies. These rebounds will be too fast. A fundamental shift in the economy has to be felt before stocks begin to ride the next Bull.

AS REPORTED LAST WEEK: The easy success in Iraq and the increasing acceptance of the Iraqi people, along with a huge $80 billion short term spending bill for the Pentagon and Homeland Defense, plus the likelihood of huge Iraq reconstruction bonds and contracts to be let out in the next few months, all auger for confidence in the coming of an expansion of the U.S. economy and an upsurge in stock values. By May there may be enough apparent buoyancy to consider a buying strategy for the next two to three years. I would wait, however, and let things firm up a bit during the summer. Then scoop up what you want to buy in late August, before Labor Day.

HEALTH WATCH

The SARS virus is going to be a problem at least for awhile. BUT, it is NOT showing a dynamic geometric expansion curve. Its spread is being controlled AND/OR it is not as contagious as feared. Despite the concern, regular pneumonia is killing far more people every week than SARS.

AS REPORTED LAST WEEK: SARS greatest impact may be simply the hysteria it causes in various areas, such as the case of sniffles causing the quarantine of an airliner and a school. Martial law is always a possibility, ANYWHERE, and could grow to impact major metropolitan areas with nearly complete economic shutdowns for a few days to a few weeks. It appears to be a little early to draw any realistic conclusion about the rates of progression of SARS and the possibility of major economic impact. All we can do is hope that it will be as slow as it is currently, which will mean that it gradually will fade away as a crisis and remain just another form of pneumonia, which is already a killer of old people. WATCH HONG KONG and TORONTO. As Hong Kong and Toronto go, so go many major metropolitan areas.

GEO-POLITICAL WATCH
How are the sunspots likely to most effect human affairs during the weeks and months ahead?

SIGN OF THE TIMES: IT LOOKS LIKE, America’s hot adventure “reality” show, “The Empire Strikes Back” HAS successfully keep much of the corporate scandals under the rug.

Have you heard even a tiny bit about these scandals since the cliff-hangers started at the U.N. at the beginning of February? ARE YOU SURPRISED? Ken Lay, just a good ole boy Texan, the Presiding Officer of the rape of California Consumers, otherwise known as Enron, is still scott free with his crooked billions…But the Enron Wicked Web of greed and gross and egregious “taking advantage of everyone” is beginning to unravel. Enron is now suing Ken Lay directly for the return of some money. Enron and many other suppliers have been found guilty of overcharging California consumers and the judges are now toting up the bill, which will be in the billions. 2003 should be a great year for a continuing soap opera of scandalous corporate news about all of this but apparently the good ole boys have mastered the art of how to dodge and duck personal connections to any responsibility.

Keep checking out the Media Lens organization. http://www.medialens.org
They are providing some really good wake up antidote to the Orwellian Newspeak of the Imperial Faction.

As the next few weeks unfold, the “real story” of what happened in Iraq will progressively change its appearance as the over all facts begin to come into focus. There will be many additional flaps appear and new issues will raise ugly heads.

We still have ABSOLUTELY NO IDEA HOW MANY PEOPLE WERE KILLED AND INJURED IN IRAQ.

One of the more interesting questions is the extent of deuterium contamination. They don’t want to talk about this one but European activists appear determined to force U.S. politicians to get real about this stuff. Some 700 cruise tomahawk missiles went “off course” and exploded no one knows where. These make the problem even more problematic.

The irony is this, one which I posed over a year ago in these updates. There may be NO weapons of mass destruction, so called, in Iraq other than the HORRIBLE WEAPONS OF MASS CONTAMINATION which Americans have exploded there in huge quantities. Sections of cities and portions of one of the richest agricultural zones on Earth may have to be abandoned for a generation or more. Was this “liberation”, as executed by push-button Americans, worth such a risk? This question is going to be asked more and more seriously in the next few years.

For Newbies: all of America’s military armaments are made of a very heavy metal called depleted uranium. This is uranium which has had all of the isotopes removed from it which explode in nuclear bombs. The uranium is still radioactive and is a highly virulent poisonous agent in the body. Many scientists believe that tiny traces amounts of it caused “Gulf War Syndrome” in American troops and have created a record number of tragic birth deformities and cancer deaths in the Southern portion of Iraq.

EarthMonitor