You have heard of the Weather Report? Here exclusively is this week’s "Earth Report" - a short review of the “big picture” about how the dynamic changes in the Sun and the Earth are effecting our lives more and more intensely, with the latest prognostications and predictions for weathermen, farmers, investors, businessmen, and everyman

Blowing In The Wind: The shifting of the poles appears to be accelerating and all seas are rising still more rapidly as the Mercury/Venus stormfront approaches…..in Space, in the oceans, and in human affairs. For the alignment on September 28, the sunspots are rising steeply higher to 235 headed for 300 plus in the next few days and three huge storms/hurricanes are in the que for bashing the Gulf Coast and Carribbean Islands. Not to be outdone by the mere wind, the world’s politicians in New York and Washington DC are huffing up a huge wind to create VERY CHOPPY POLITICAL WATERS.

Wow! Hold onto your hats folks, the next 45 days are going to be going to be an incredible rush.

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Program Thesis: What are we trying to do with the Earth Changes Bulletin?

Most news media do not handle technical and scientific subjects like geology and earth sciences very well. They don't understand the causes and effects of activities in the Sun and Earth. Accordingly, they often do not understand if, when, how, why to report earthquakes, volcanic activity, global warming effects The treatment often sounds absent-minded, poorly qualified, and frequently contains various technical errors. Seldom is the treatment entertaining and genuinely educational.

Based on new scientific principles which have emerged during the past thirty years, many of the dynamic activities of the Sun and Earth can be linked together to see how a range of effects are linked together. This makes it possible to paint "the big picture" into a perspective which explains many diverse events and processes, especially climate and weather patterns such as global warming and El Nino. From the "big picture", long range predictions can be made for weeks and even months ahead.

The result is sophisticated cutting-edge information which is objective, balanced, astute, relevant, and can be easily seen and appreciated by lay audiences. The perspective is generally global, seldom parochial.

POLAR MOTION
What is happening to the motion of the Earth.

It is beginning to appear that the shifting of the poles is definitely accelerating.

As before, it is fairly steady as she goes, but it is most likely drifting down Longitude West 90 more rapidly than ever before, even as the waves in the solar sea and the reactions in Earth’s atmosphere are rising higher and higher to push all normal patterns and records into oblivion. The X Wave of plotted polar motion has peaked and a long seven month decline (England is falling to the South) has begun even as the circumference of Chandler’s Wobble continues to increase (theoretically). The maximum size should be reached about November 2003 (theoretically – this can vary by up to about 60 days).

The current peak of the X Wave is a bit more ragged than is often the case and it supports a definite dent, which suggests that instability is higher than normal, and one supposes that this can be easily accounted for by the immense buffeting the Earth has received from the intense and choppy solar wind during this Sunspot Cycle 23 Peak.

The current circular track is tighter and closer to the theoretical average location than the last circular track through this quadrant of the Earth 14 months ago. This is a highly unusual condition for this expanding phase in the cycle. The tracks almost never overlap. The spiraling wobble should flow progressively in three turns and then out three turns, fairly evenly with minor jiggles, without overlaps. The current overlap suggests that this current 6.5 year wobble cycle is going to be “smaller” than the last one or that the overall location of the track of the wobble is being much more rapidly displaced than normal, so much more rapidly that it is now displacing the location of the pole more rapidly than the 14 month spiral tracks can maintain their spacing.

Since the apparent direction of the drift is in accord with the direction of drift since the middle of the last century, and given the fact that a major anomaly in the rate of change and spiral motion of the location of the poles set in during December 98 and appears to be continuing, it is most likely that the rate of the drift or shifting of the poles (spin axis) has permanently accelerated and may indeed still be in the process of acceleration.

In another year, by the end of November 2003, when we can see the 6.5 year X Max position of the position of the North Pole fully developed, we can average this current cycle of Chandler’s Wobble and determine the drift. Serious mathematicians will most likely at that time be able to plot an average annual acceleration curve with considerable rigor. This will be challenging work, though, because the irregular variations in the spiral tracks are fairly high.

Delta (rate of change) Pole Shift. Won’t that be interesting? I think it is coming into view sometime next year. As it is, it seems nearly certain, though still a belief on my part, that Cayce’s prediction for 2000/2001 has nearly been confirmed. Some sixty-five years ago he predicted that we would see a beginning of the shifting of the poles in 2000/2001 which would culminate fairly soon thereafter in many major Earth Changes. If so, this will be the world’s most spectacular psychic prediction and confirmation ever.

SUNSPOTS & SOLAR STORMS
The events in the solar atmosphere which impact weather and climate patterns, the magnetic field and auroras, including forecasts for the week, month, and year ahead.

High at 235 today and rising rapidly. This is the beginning of a huge wave front in the number of sunspots. This is going to be a doozy. The index of solar flux is rising and the sunspot count should follow suit during the next several days. We may easily see up to 300 plus sunspots as the Mercury/Venus alignment forms up for late September.

The last several steep waves and the current wavefront can be see at:

http://www.michaelmandeville.com/earthmonitor/topten_monitor.htm

The solar wind is blowing with steady vigor at nearly 391 km/second. A coronal hole in the Sun’s atmosphere adjacent to Mercury’s position is likely to envelop the Earth in a few days and add more vigor and probably some chop into the Earth’s magnetic field. Currently the Fluxgate Magnetometer at the U. of Alaska is practically a flat line but it should get more colorful in about three days.

NASA confirms that X class flares are a strong possibility at any time.

With the continued high level of ionic influx into the Earth’s atmosphere, bright auroras will continue to be commonplace in the high latitudes and even the mid latitudes. As previously predicted: MANY MORE AURORAS ARE COMING IN GREAT QUANTITY DURING SEPTEMBER AND OCTOBER.

THE PLANETARY ALIGNMENTS

The Mercury alignment with the Earth on September 28th can be see at
http://www.michaelmandeville.com/earthmonitor/cosmos/planets/planets2002/planets_Sept28_2002_real.gif

Venus is sure to pull into the Earth a tremendous surge of solar atmosphere and this surge will persist for at least three weeks beyond the Venus-Earth alignment during the last week of October.

This alignment can be seen at:
http://www.michaelmandeville.com/earthmonitor/cosmos/planets/planets2002/planets_Oct27_2002_eq.gif

GLOBAL DROUGHT AND FLOOD WATCH
Stories and assessments about drought and flood conditions around the world; global information which provides the ability to assess the impacts to agriculture and the natural environment.

All conditions CONTINUE to worsen week by week. The temporary relief which hit portions of the Western U.S. during early September has almost completely disappeared. The monsoon season is now over and as predicted here since June, it provided almost no relief.

Chaos patterns in the Earth’s atmosphere during September seemed to drown out a repeat of August’s severe flooding, but the drought has returned with a vengeance.

It may be that the high sunspot counts will have a buffering and softening effect on the hurricanes. There may be enough energy in the higher atmosphere that these storms are spiraling in huge tracks. Instead of closing up into small fast-moving deadly spiraling winds, the air and water is spinning slowly in huge spirals which tend to open rather than close. This will make for long, EXTREMELY WET storms with winds well below hurricane destructive force. Things shouldn’t break, but they may float away.

To test this concept, let’s watch the current standing stack of major storms on the Atlantic Equator (three). Let us see whether they stay sloppy and wet or get tight and mean.

As predicted: extreme storms and rainfall should continue to escalate during the next two weeks to produce an exceptionally wet fall in Northern Eurasia.

All of this of course, as discussed previously, is created by the high levels of ionic energy in the Earth’s atmosphere which robs the wet moist ocean air from many of the monsoon belts in the middle latitudes. The energy sends most of the equatorial ocean air up much higher in elevation and latitude, leaving drought in the monsoon belts while creating exceptional floods in the Northern latitudes.

The effects of the failure of the monsoon summer rain can be seen widely in Nevada and Arizona, California, and other states. While driving South from Las Vegas, one can see that a great many of the Joshua trees of the Mojave Desert are in dire straits and a massive die-off is not too far away. Yet there was just enough rain higher in altitude to give a great many oak and pinion the ability to hang on for more time. Unfortunately, the stately Ponderosa Pine strands in Arizona are being hard hit in some zones. One can now see entire hillsides half browned where a massive die-off of the Ponderosa has commenced.

As predicted, due to the exceptional influx of solar activity which the inner planets “lens” directly into the earth during the close fly-by’s of Mercury and Venus, Arizona and many areas throughout Western U.S. HAVE RETURNED to drought conditions and this is likely to hold through to the end of this year. Most likely this condition will persist until well into next year, though chaotic responses in the world’s atmosphere may ameliorate this condition from time to time.

EL NINO WATCH: As previously reported, a minor build up of surface temperature along the equator continues but it is not even remotely comparable to the last two El Nino patterns. The greatest “driver” of our weather continues to be the high sunspot counts, not any El Nino syndrome.

EARTHQUAKES
Around the world to see the current and potential patterns of seismic activity, with coverage of the windows of danger.

UPHEAVAL IN THE SOLOMON ISLANDS

During the last 7 days, many deep shakes have been rifting the ocean bottom near the Solomon Islands with 5.0 to 6.0 mag. quakes. Elsewhere, the greatest Syzygy period for quakes 3.0 plus in size was on the 19th of September, two days before the Full Moon. Quakes struck throughout the usual places. Since then quakes have hit in Northern California, Baja California, Japan, the South Seas (of course) and primarily around the Pacific Rim of Fire.

For quakes of all sizes on the U.S. West Coast, the USGS charts show 283 quakes for the last week for California/Nevada and 46 for the last two weeks for the entire Pacific Northwest. Activity can thus be classed as muted in California overall but definitely above average in the Pacific Northwest. A quake of about 4.1 mag struck San Juan Island at about 14 miles in depth, but most of the quakes for the region were small tremors along the Cascade range.

VOLCANOES
Around the world with the most interesting and relevant volcano stories; briefs on the likely eruptions as well as coverage of on-going activity.

Volcanic activity continues to increase. Another series of eruptions has just commenced on Ruang in Indonesia. The Southwest Volcano Centre reports 36 volcanoes on the alert status list, 8 volcanoes on the restless list, and 19 on the active eruption list (add Ruang to make 20). These numbers are all up slightly from two weeks ago.

All activity appears to be increasing after nearly a month of becoming more and more quiet. But Hood is still fast asleep

As many of the others, El Popo increased its activity slightly over that of last week. As reported by Cenapred for SEPTEMBER 25 (16:00 GMT): “In the last 24 hours, Popocatepetl volcano showed low levels of activity. There were 23 small exhalations accompanied by steam and gas. The other monitored parameters remain without important changes”.

It would appear from our tracking of the past several months that El Popo’s “puffs” are a consistent bellwether of planetary volcanism.

(For new readers, Hood and El Popo are on our vigilant watch because of certain prophecies which have been made about them).

AG INDUSTRY WATCH
Because of the high load of stress which the current peak in the sunspots have placed on the Ag industry, we alert on the changing scene in agriculture and how these are likely to effect the broader economy.

Information about severe crop failures worldwide continues to mount in higher pile. Many have sent URLs and articles from around the world. Please continue to post these during September and October so that we can generate a large research file of data about the global food situation. From these posts we will gain a perspective during the late fall for making judgements about the problem of shortages and economic disruption.

GEO-POLITICAL WATCH
How the sunspots are likely to most effect human affairs during the weeks and months ahead?

As previously reported: Let us hope this Fall is a little too much of everything falling apart with enough random chaos to keep us collectively distracted from bombing defenseless poor people back into the stone age.

Meanwhile, over-reactions are still a major threat and indeed reactions to Bush’s strident “Lone Ranger” tones are escalating worldwide even as the Bush administration mounts a PR and diplomatic offense which was sharply escalated on Saturday with Bush’s policy announcement about his right to make unilateral pre-emptive military strikes anywhere in the world, which is more or less an assertion about as sophisticated and tactful as announcing “I-am-the-king-of-the-world”.

It can already be seen that this speech was a major historical blunder. In regard to the danger poised by Iraq, the question of the day continues to be Walter Mondale’s famous question, “where’s the beef?” Bush’s churlish all-or-nothing we-can-do-whatever-we-want-to-do-because-we-are-so-big-and-powerful approach seems finally to be polarizing the Democratic Party against him as Democrats begin to find a common voice demanding the maintenance of international law and joint responsibility.

Al Gore’s recent pounding of the Bush Condaleeza Rice policy on Sept 24 will likely galvanize a tidal wave of right wing Republican mudslingers to move in and start fouling the debate with personal bigotry about what a flake Gore is to have worn a beard for a few months and other equally relevant bigot attacks.

It will be interesting to watch this pattern emerge during the next six weeks. We may have the opportunity to see in clear isolation how wealthy right wingers and the Republican Party use intellectual thugs and bullies to engage in every form of trickery and treachery in public character assassination to destroy concerned people who are not members of conservative elite groups. With the exception of Ronald Reagan personally, this has been the Republican strategy since Nixon/Agnew and it has gotten meaner and more disgusting with every election since.

To observe this phenomenon, look for criticisms of Al Gore personally to suddenly appear for having the chutzpah to stand up and criticize some of Bush’s policies. Watch these type of personal assaults to mount across the board against anyone considered slightly left of Trent Lott. Watch the incredibly culpable American mass media report such crap while barely offering any coverage of the actual criticisms of policy.

All of this will be driven by Republican manipulation to make voters vote to support “the wartime president” whilst forgetting the economic disintegration and the traditional penchant for mid term elections to favor the opposition party.

In case you hadn’t noticed, sorry to tear through the veil and call the emperor naked

BUT

THERE IS NO WAR UNDERWAY. There was a limited police action in Afghanistan but that is winding down rapidly and is essentially over. The remnants of Al Qaeda are hiding low and we probably won’t find them for years if ever. The truth is, we have no wartime President.

We also have a badly depressed Arab world which would dearly love to create a permanent peace in Palestine and so far cannot find enough intelligence in the Western Nations to put something together.

But we sure have a lot of hot air, enough to float us to Andromeda.

REPEAT FROM PERVIOUS WEEKS:

September’s and October’s huge influx of ionic energization will increase emotional over-reactions and intellectual incoherence, esp. on the subject of violence, war, invasions, guilt, blame, revenge, and so on. JUST SAY NO. DARE TO JUST SAY NO TO ALL EMOTIONAL APPEALS, ESPECIALLY TO FEAR OR DESIRE FOR REVENGE. SAY NO TO ALL OF THE DRUM BEATS OF WAR. Demand that all things be logical and consistent. Clarity is sanity. Is there a real threat at the moment? If not, say no.