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Earth Changes Bulletin Update As Of October 9, 2002 You have heard of the Weather Report? Here exclusively is this week’s "Earth Report" - a short review of the "big picture" about how the dynamic changes in the Sun and the Earth are effecting our lives more and more intensely, with the latest prognostications and predictions for weathermen, farmers, investors, businessmen, and everyman KEYNOTE THIS WEEK: The Venus solar stormfront approaches closer to the Earth but no one knows what is blowing in the wind. Betwixt and between the old order of things and those who are pushing pushing pushing, chaos is all around us while we dimly try to grasp our situation. ________________________________________________________________________ Program Thesis: What are we trying to do with the Earth Changes Bulletin? Most news media do not handle technical and scientific subjects like geology and earth sciences very well. They don't understand the causes and effects of activities in the Sun and Earth. Accordingly, they often do not understand if, when, how, why to report earthquakes, volcanic activity, global warming effects The treatment often sounds absent-minded, poorly qualified, and frequently contains various technical errors. Seldom is the treatment entertaining and genuinely educational. Based on new scientific principles which have emerged during the past thirty years, many of the dynamic activities of the Sun and Earth can be linked together to see how a range of effects are linked together. This makes it possible to paint "the big picture" into a perspective which explains many diverse events and processes, especially climate and weather patterns such as global warming and El Nino. From the "big picture", long range predictions can be made for weeks and even months ahead. The result is sophisticated cutting-edge information which is objective, balanced, astute, relevant, and can be easily seen and appreciated by lay audiences. The perspective is generally global, seldom parochial. ________________________________________________________________________
POLAR MOTION What is happening to the motion of the Earth. REPEAT FROM LAST WEEK - steady if somewhat flattened showing significant displacement. As reported during the past few weeks, the spiral track made by Earth’s Spin Axis in Chandler’s Wobble continues to tighten up on the right side of the graph. This appears to continue to demonstrate that the location of Chandler’s Wobble is being displaced more rapidly than in previous years. SUNSPOTS & SOLAR STORMS The events in the solar atmosphere which impact weather and climate patterns, the magnetic field and auroras, including forecasts for the week, month, and year ahead. Since last Wednesday the Sunspots have continued at relatively low levels and currently the count is at 124 after some small fluctuations. It definitely is clear at this point that Mercury did not bring a large peak in sunspot counts when it passed the Earth by on September 28th . What went wrong? We simply don’t fully enough understand the connections and dynamics to bat 100% here. August 28th, the alignment began to form up as a spiral with the Earth forming a right angle with Mercury from the Sun, with Venus midway between them. Within four days, the sunspots more than tripled, rising from a low of 85 to a high of 270. This alignment can be seen at: They promptly dropped again down to 180 but soon peaked up again on September 12th to about 260 when Mercury approached into a very close alignment with Venus. To follow these numbers, view the Solar Cycle 23 Chart at http://www.michaelmandeville.com/earthmonitor/topten_monitor.htm The peak held for three days and then dropped down to 180 on the 16th and 17th. On the 18th, the exact day of the alignment between Venus and Mercury, the sunspot numbers climbed again to 235 and then jiggled up and down in numbers between 220 and 240 through to September 25th, after which they nose-dived. On the day that Mercury aligned with and passed the Earth, September 28th, the sunspots were still sinking and bottomed out at about 85 on October 3rd. From this we can see a good pattern of partial correlation, yet the numbers went South in connection to the Earth, exactly the opposite of what we were expecting. Why? I have no idea. During this time there was an elevated level of flares, large CME’s, extremely colorful, widespread auroras, and amazing magnetic disturbances in the Earth’s atmosphere, major and sudden fluctuations in the solar wind and weather patterns which followed few predictions. Yet the sunspot numbers suddenly broke and went South. This may be the good news. It may be that the peak of Solar Cycle 23 is breaking up amidst a lot of stormy fitzing and spitzing (which is still gong on fairly strongly). Let us hope the cycle is broken, but expect a lot of variation and expect as well at least one more rise. Venus is rapidly approaching the Earth and I expect this alignment to pull the sunspot numbers up. If it does not pull them up well past 200, I think we can confidently say the Solar Cycle 23 peak is done and should not threaten the following Spring. This winter should still be more similar to last winter than to the more general average, but the "freak" levels should be down – IF THE CYCLE PEAK IS BROKEN. REPEAT FROM PREVIOUS WEEKS: Venus is sure to pull into the Earth a tremendous surge of solar atmosphere and this surge will persist for at least three weeks beyond the Venus-Earth alignment during the last week of October. This alignment can be seen at: The alignment period with Venus is even now upon us and the alignment will be virtually perfect October 26th through October 29th. Then it will remain in close alignment through the middle of November. Sunspot numbers have already begun to climb for this alignment, (I THINK), they soared up from 85 to 155 on October 3rd and 4th and fluctuating now between 125 and 155. The curve for the numbers should look something like September’s numbers for the Mercury/Venus connection. As previously predicted, the numbers could rocket past 300 but it seems more doubtful now and mid 200’s may be far closer to the performance. Flares and CME’s continue to give the graph line on the U of Alaska’s Magnetometer plenty of "bench-pressing" exercise. Large choppy magnetic fluctuations keep coming in nearly every day, indicating we are sailing through a heavy and rough solar sea. Currently the solar wind is relatively mild at 374 but NASA advises that two coronal holes will increase the solar wind as early as today. NASA also predicts a 50% probability for additional Class M Flares during the next 48 hours. As predicted last week, MANY MORE AURORAS ARE COMING IN GREAT QUANTITY DURING OCTOBER. GLOBAL DROUGHT AND FLOOD WATCH Stories and assessments about drought and flood conditions around the world; global information which provides the ability to assess the impacts to agriculture and the natural environment. Subscribers have sent me a large number of reports from the internet from various governments or other institutions around the world which tell of the terrible consequences of this year’s weather (floods and drought) on agricultural crops. It will take some serious time to wade through them but continue to send references in. It is highly important and no one person will find the diversity of info which your are sending, so I am going to be able to put together a fairly penetrating summary. I will wait until November as I we may be able to "call" the sunspot cycle towards the end of the month, perhaps somewhat sooner, so that the assessment will be even more comprehensive. All conditions appear to be normalizing at this point and the Fall weather is quite pleasant far and wide, even though the Gulf Coast is still trying to shed its floods from the storms. As guessed in previous issues, it seems relatively clear at this point from the first two major Atlantic/Caribbean storms that high sunspot numbers tend to fuzz out the storm focus, making them large but relatively weak. This observation is good enough to warrant a close watch the remainder of this season and if the relationship holds up to some degree, then it would be well worth the while to put all the numbers of hurricanes, tornadoes, and cyclones for the past 100 years in a database and mix them well with sunspot cycle numbers. If your kid likes science, this would be a great way for him to get a good start and a scholarship. All it takes is Excel and/or Access software and a lot of fiddling. The two or three inches of rain we got here in the Sonoran Desert has given impetus to the Chaparral. These plants, along with the Jojoba, grow everywhere like weeds throughout the Sonoran Desert. Bitter and astringent, not even desperate deer like them much. They normally bloom in the Spring or at the earliest monsoon rain but this year they have slowly been shedding their leaves and some have croaked. But many now are blooming in spotty ways to make a fairly weird October for this area. Since the monsoon seems over and in fact is normally over by now, we should be dry here again in the Southwest until December. AS PREDICTED LAST WEEK: Extreme storms and rainfall should continue to escalate during the month to produce an exceptionally wet fall in Northern Eurasia. REPEAT FROM PREVIOUS WEEKS: All of this of course, as discussed previously, is created by the high levels of ionic energy in the Earth’s atmosphere which robs the wet moist ocean air from many of the monsoon belts in the middle latitudes. The energy sends most of the equatorial ocean air up much higher in elevation and latitude, leaving drought in the monsoon belts while creating exceptional floods in the Northern latitudes. EL NINO WATCH: The Pacific Water chart I use to watch for El Nino conditions has not been updated this week.
EARTHQUAKES Around the world to see the current and potential patterns of seismic activity, with coverage of the windows of danger.
For all quakes above 3.0 in magnitude, seismic activity was widely distributed throughout the world in all the usual places with no particular emphasis although there is one new hotspot off the coast of Greenland on the Great World Rift which runs up through and across the Arctic zone. Several quakes struck this portion of the rift the last few days but elsewhere, neither frequency nor magnitude was out of the ordinary. If anything, activity was a little muted. For all quakes of all sizes in California /Nevada, the USGS plots a running total of 304 quakes for the past seven days, which is about normal for this point in the lunar cycle. The USGS charts for the Pacific Northwest reveals 38 quakes for the running total of the past two weeks, which is also somewhat elevated in frequency. YELLOWSTONE: The USGS charts for the Yellowstone Area reveals 27 quakes small quakes widely scattered for the running total of the past week. Last week I resolved to see if the location of the Moon north of the Equator would be reflected in more quakes North of the Equator this last seven days. I have not counted the database, that is a lot of work to do, but look at this map of major quakes above 3.0: http://neic.usgs.gov/neis/qed/last_seven_days.html It sure appears that the greater portion of the quakes are North of the Equator. The main exception is the Fiji-Papua Tectonic Arc, which is always active.
This is a pretty sloppy correlation because we need to define the dates and quakes in strict accordance with the lunar cycle, which I have not done very exactly. But it is fun. The moon is now in its South Node, let’s continue with sloppy but fun science and see how that reflects on the location of Earthquakes.
VOLCANOES Around the world with the most interesting and relevant volcano stories; briefs on the likely eruptions as well as coverage of on-going activity. Last week it seemed that volcanic activity was upsurging. It might have been but it is currently sagging. The Southwest Volcano Centre reports 37 volcanoes on the alert status list same as last week), 5 volcanoes on the restless list (same as last week), and 21 on the active eruption list (same as last week). Most activity appears to have diminished this last week, even those on the active list were pretty quiet for the most part. Hood remains virtually quiescent and El Popo is
mostly sawing logs with only 3 puffs today. Centrapred reports for OCTOBER 9 (16:00 GMT)
that "In the last 24 hours, the Popocatepetl volcano activity remained with low and
steady levels. There were only 3 small exhalations accompanied by steam and gas. The other
monitored parameters remain without important changes." ONCE AGAIN WE SEE THAT POPO IS AN EXCELLENT CORRELATE TO WORLDWIDE VOLCANISM. I wonder how far back their data series extends? This is another great project for kids.
YELLOWSTONE: Pam Wiseman drove by Yellowstone this week and reported that she also experienced the "Feng Shu Headache" – which psychics experience as the high level of stress in the Earth which leads to a rupturing or eruption.
AG INDUSTRY WATCH Because of the high load of stress which the current peak in the sunspots have placed on the Ag industry, we alert on the changing scene in agriculture and how these are likely to effect the broader economy. Keep the reports coming in.
GEO-POLITICAL WATCH How the sunspots are likely to most effect human affairs during the weeks and months ahead?
Hyper-reactive behavior is still the order of the day. One can see it in the Montgomery Sniper, one can see it in the collective response to the Montgomery Sniper. One minor non-terrorist? wacko HAS terrified a million people or more. The media has amplified the events and the signal of local fear into a stampede of reaction which has frightened an entire region. What if there were three of those guys moving up and down the East Coast? Could they negate the orderly working of the entire system? It is certain that people will be frightened by such things. But the bells, gongs, whistles, and dramatic flourishes on National TV have become so obnoxious in creating a terrible sense of over-wraught drama and urgency that I am getting close to a conditioned response of vomiting every time I see the CNN or Fox logos. Are these people deliberately setting us up to be conditioned to react with fear and anxiety every time we see one of those red banner "headlines" flash on the screen along with an overly loud and rude acoustic embellishment of some kind of another? Are you getting as paranoid as I am about these people who are doling out to us these dribbles and drabbles of the horror mystery of the hour. Here is my over-reaction of the hour: I personally hate the editorial juvenility of Gen. X nittering and nattering about how they look while they peddle their horror stories. I want them to all go away. I would like to see people 40 years older on those screens to replace the over-paid Bimbos and Ken Dolls with a little bit of real perspective and balance. Sorry I just had to hyperventilate there.
Statements this week by George Bush pretty much confirm the largely prevailing conclusion that there is no evidence to support U.S. claims about Iraq. Many highly qualified and highly-placed observers around the world are now openly accusing Bush and his administration of pushing arrogantly with just speculations and various innuendoes formed by guilt-by-association, largely contrived and distorted. Many people are observing that most of the rhetoric of the U.S. government is over-stated, gimmicky, "tricky", as in Tricky-Dick’s famous line about "I have a peace solution for Vietnam" or his even more famous "I am not a crook". Yeah sure Dick. "We must destroy Sodamm Hussein’s weapons of mass destruction, RIGHT NOW". Okay George, what weapons? Where? What do we do, just blow the whole place up? And why now while several million Palestinians and most of the Arab world is begging the U.S. to focus on creating a final settlement with Israel? Can’t we just get real here? Never in 60 years have the Arabs been so willing to go along with a settlement imposed from outside to create a docile state for the Palestinians. That must happen right now for the best results. But are the Americans so lost in their own reactive, fear-driven agendas that they are being led into a campaign which may polarize the Middle-East even more bitterly? Why take the risk? WHAT PEOPLE NEED TO DO IS SLOW DOWN AND THINK FOR AWHILE WHAT THE REAL AGENDA SHOULD BE. Nothing inappropriate about that behavior. When you are not sure what is going down, that is a perfectly swell behavior.
REPEAT FROM PREVIOUS WEEKS: October’s huge influx of ionic energization will increase emotional over-reactions and intellectual incoherence, esp. on the subject of violence, war, invasions, guilt, blame, revenge, and so on. JUST SAY NO. DARE TO JUST SAY NO TO ALL EMOTIONAL APPEALS, ESPECIALLY TO FEAR OR DESIRE FOR REVENGE. SAY NO TO ALL OF THE DRUM BEATS OF WAR. Demand that all things be logical and consistent. Clarity is sanity. Is there a real threat at the moment? If not, say no. AND REMEMBER THIS: THERE IS NO CONNECTION REPEAT, NO CONNECTION BETWEEN 911 AND THE CURRENT FOCUS ON IRAQ. THIS IS A COMPLETELY DIFFERENT AGENDA BUT THOSE WHO ARE PUSHING IT ARE ATTEMPTING TO MANIPULATE YOU EVERYDAY BY VARIOUS EMOTIONAL PULLS ON THE 911 TRAUMA. NO MATTER HOW SINCERE YOU THINK THESE PEOPLE MAY BE, DON’T LET ANY ONE LEAD YOU TO CREATE A WAR. AMERICA IS BEST AND MORALLY CORRECT WHEN IT FIGHTS TO STOP WARS WHICH OTHERS HAVE STARTED. BUT THIS BUSINESS OF CREATING A WAR ON A WEAK AND IMPOVERISHED NATION CURRENTLY HAS NO MORAL SANCTION AND DOING SO ALMOST CERTAINLY WILL CREATE PROFOUND NEGATIVE CONSEQUENCES THROUGHOUT THE WORLD. AMONG OTHER THINGS, IT WILL PROFOUNDLY SPLIT THIS NATION RIGHT DOWN THE MIDDLE FOR A GENERATION.
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