EarthMonitor

Earth Changes Bulletin Update As Of October 2, 2002

You have heard of the Weather Report? Here exclusively is this week’s "Earth Report" - a short review of the "big picture" about how the dynamic changes in the Sun and the Earth are effecting our lives more and more intensely, with the latest prognostications and predictions for weathermen, farmers, investors, businessmen, and everyman

Blowing In The Wind: All seas are rising still more rapidly as the Mercury/Venus solar stormfront moves approaches closer to the Earth…..in Space, in the oceans, and in human affairs. Even as Hurricane Lilli heads towards New Orleans to batter the Gulf Coast with quite probably the greatest floods of the century, American politicians are running pellmell to whip up the threat of war.

Hold onto your hats folks, the rush has only begun.

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Program Thesis: What are we trying to do with the Earth Changes Bulletin?

Most news media do not handle technical and scientific subjects like geology and earth sciences very well. They don't understand the causes and effects of activities in the Sun and Earth. Accordingly, they often do not understand if, when, how, why to report earthquakes, volcanic activity, global warming effects The treatment often sounds absent-minded, poorly qualified, and frequently contains various technical errors. Seldom is the treatment entertaining and genuinely educational.

Based on new scientific principles which have emerged during the past thirty years, many of the dynamic activities of the Sun and Earth can be linked together to see how a range of effects are linked together. This makes it possible to paint "the big picture" into a perspective which explains many diverse events and processes, especially climate and weather patterns such as global warming and El Nino. From the "big picture", long range predictions can be made for weeks and even months ahead.

The result is sophisticated cutting-edge information which is objective, balanced, astute, relevant, and can be easily seen and appreciated by lay audiences. The perspective is generally global, seldom parochial.

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POLAR MOTION

What is happening to the motion of the Earth.

As reported during the past few weeks, the spiral track made by Earth’s Spin Axis in Chandler’s Wobble continues to tighten up on the right side of the graph. This appears to continue to demonstrate that the location of Chandler’s Wobble is being displaced more rapidly than in previous years.

Attached to this report is a graphics gif file which your browser will display to show the latest wobble track. It shows the beginning of the spiral track of the Spin Axis at the top of the spiral for January 1996. The last week for September 2002 is shown as a "dangling end" near the bottom, right side. Notice how the "dangling end" for September is turning inside the spiral track which is just one "turn" prior. This should be outside its "previous turn". This demonstrates a displacement of the wobble pattern which probably is produced by an acceleration in the rate of drift of the average location of the spin axis.

OR, MORE SIMPLY, THE NORTH SPIN AXIS OF THE EARTH IS MOVING MORE RAPIDLY (THOUGH STILL QUITE SLOWLY) TOWARDS THE SOUTH IN THE DIRECTION OF CHICAGO.

SUNSPOTS & SOLAR STORMS

The events in the solar atmosphere which impact weather and climate patterns, the magnetic field and auroras, including forecasts for the week, month, and year ahead.

The count of 235 sunspots last Wednesday which we reported in the Earth Changes Update promptly began to sag to 95 by Monday, September 30 despite the fact we predicted it would climb up past 300 for the September 28^th alignment of Mercury and Venus.

What went wrong? Probably nothing. except that our guesstimate of timing was not very good…..We have observed during the past two years that the impact of Mercury’s alignment with other heavenly bodies tends to follow "in the train" of Mercury, i.e., following Mercury by a few days. Today, Wednesday, the count for Tuesday is already rising again and is at 100. During the next few days I predict they will rise again quite rapidly.

As predicted last week, with this continued high level of ionic influx into the Earth’s atmosphere, bright auroras are beginning to become commonplace in the high latitudes and even the mid latitudes are seeing them occasionally. MANY MORE AURORAS ARE COMING IN GREAT QUANTITY DURING SEPTEMBER AND OCTOBER.

On Monday, Sept 30 a Class M Flare blew the U of Alaska’s Magnetometer off the charts with two major episodes of incoming magnetic storms which turned the normal flat line of magnetic readings into two sets of extreme chops. A third extreme wavefront hit on Tuesday to bounce the charts to the edges once more. The Solar Wind was at 397 km/s and rose sharply today to a wopping 526 km/s while energizing the atmosphere to produce visible auroras as far South as Arizona. A large coronal hole is emerging and coming into Earth’s view and these are unusually the source of more energetic winds flowing through the solar atmosphere (throughout the entire solar system). This condition should persist for at least a few more days.

NASA predicts a 50% probability for additional Class M Flares during the next 24 hours.

The last three steep waves in the sunspot counts and the current (lull?) can be see at:

http://www.michaelmandeville.com/earthmonitor/topten_monitor.htm

Venus is sure to pull into the Earth a tremendous surge of solar atmosphere and this surge will persist for at least three weeks beyond the Venus-Earth alignment during the last week of October.

This alignment can be seen at:

GLOBAL DROUGHT AND FLOOD WATCH

Stories and assessments about drought and flood conditions around the world; global information which provides the ability to assess the impacts to agriculture and the natural environment.

All conditions worsen week by week even as temporary relief has hit portions of the Western U.S. A late monsoon syndrome has hit the American Southwest which is bringing in lower temperatures and a little bit of occasional moisture, but the rainfall is very spotty and has failed to save large numbers of Ponderosa Pine.

Fortunately, most of the Oak have recovered and set out leaves, though probably no acorns will be produced by most of them. This of course will severely impact the mammal population because the acorns from the Oak are one of the largest natural sources of food.

I had thought that the Oak would be the first to die and that the well entrenched Ponderosa Pine would hold out the longest. But the Ponderosa Pines have not fared nearly as well as the Oak. Large numbers have turned brown in just the past three weeks to make a very bitter and strange Fall. A brown pine tree is a dead one, no recovery is possible. It is one of the biggest stories of the Southwest but this huge eco-catastrophe remains nearly invisible to most folks compared to the drama of Forest Fires.

People who are used to seeing the evergreens continue on year after year have no idea of the death that is happening here. Imagine that 20% of the trees in the Pacific Northwest suddenly died. As you drive down the roads you see their brown tops scattered in various pockets and hillsides. It would be pretty upsetting to country folk. That is what is happening here.

I have no way to gauge the magnitude of this catastrophe in the eco-system but it is very large and extends through Arizona into New Mexico at the least, and probably into portions of Colorado as well. On many hillsides, fully 50% of the pines have died. On some hillsides, almost all of the pines have died.

This death along with the huge burn areas, will require massive logging operations in the Southwest. These dead trees will pose a terrible fire risk as well as prevent new trees from taking their place. They will need to be logged and this of course will severely disrupt local habitats. As a life long environmentalist type, I can only hope that environmentalists will not get in the way. It is a terrible loss and it is one we simply have to endure. All things change, even the Earth. Nothing can be preserved in some static way forever.

Extreme storms and rainfall should continue to escalate during the next month to produce an exceptionally wet fall in Northern Eurasia.

All of this of course, as discussed previously, is created by the high levels of ionic energy in the Earth’s atmosphere which robs the wet moist ocean air from many of the monsoon belts in the middle latitudes. The energy sends most of the equatorial ocean air up much higher in elevation and latitude, leaving drought in the monsoon belts while creating exceptional floods in the Northern latitudes.

As previously predicted, due to the exceptional influx of solar activity which the inner planets "lens" directly into the earth during the close fly-by’s of Mercury and Venus, it is likely that Arizona and many areas throughout Western U.S. will RETURN to drought conditions through to the end of this year. Most likely this condition will persist until well into next year, though chaotic responses in the world’s atmosphere may ameliorate this condition has it has done so during the past seven days.

EL NINO WATCH: Two small patches of warm water along the equator have consolidated and have begun to look more like the mild El Nino precursor which some climatologists have been predicting I still maintain that it is too weak a formation to drive an El Nino and I believe that the trend in the Pacific is towards cooler water. If I am right, the temperature along the Equator should nosedive rapidly during October and November. If the water is still 4 to 8 degrees warmer along the Equator in some patches, I will have to concede to the meteorologists.

EARTHQUAKES

Around the world to see the current and potential patterns of seismic activity, with coverage of the windows of danger.

For all quakes above 3.0 in magnitude, seismic activity was widely distributed throughout the world in all the usual places, with particular emphasis on the Mediterranean – Himalayas belt over the weekend. The recent quakes in England and France this past few days can both be seen as part of the belt. Though these quakes in France and England are rarish, they are not all that remarkable, though that would easily change if we get a double header during this coming New Moon Syzygy this next weekend. Yesterday the activity seemed to switch abruptly to the Solomon Islands in the South Seas, where six quakes above 4.0 struck in one day.

For all quakes of all sizes in California /Nevada, the USGS plots a running total of 324 quakes for the past seven days, which is definitely an elevated frequency for this time in the lunar cycle. All the faults are creeping there, including the Baja fault slip zone and the extension of the plate boundaries through the Pacific up to the Coos Bay zone which we have been watching carefully The USGS charts for the Pacific Northwest reveals 50 quakes for the running total of the past two weeks, which is also somewhat elevated in frequency.

I would guess that the moon is in the Northern Node and is near perigee (closest approach to the Earth) to produce this result? Am I right? A check of Home Planet software in Switzerland provides the answer: http://www.fourmilab.ch/earthview/pacalc.html

From the chart of the world and time clock which the software provides as part of my screen saver, I see that the Moon is definitely in the North Node, well above or North of the Equator. But we were far from Perigee, Apogee was Sept. 20. From this it seems most likely that increased quakes will be felt closer to the Equator about Oct. 6 when Perigee takes place and while the Moon is floating closer to the Equator on its way to the South Node. In otherwords, the greatest seismic energy should be expressed in places like Central America and in the Philliphines. Let’s watch this one this week.

I am going to add the Yellowstone area for weekly review because of the likelihood that this volcanic field is now undergoing pre-ignition. Eleven quakes are shown on the USGS charts for the Yellowstone area for this past two weeks. Since I have not been paying attention to this area, I don’t know what this means, if anything. In the coming weeks we will begin to see how it acts.

The most interesting activity on the USGS charts for Cal/Nev is a repeating sequence of quakes near Trona, California in the middle of nowhere a little South of the Long Lake Cauldera and a little to the West of Death Valley. This repeating sequence pinpoints an area which is obviously undergoing volcanic intrusions deep underground. This area has been active for the past year and a half at least.

VOLCANOES

Around the world with the most interesting and relevant volcano stories; briefs on the likely eruptions as well as coverage of on-going activity.

The Southwest Volcano Centre reports 37 volcanoes on the alert status list (up 2 since last week), 5 volcanoes on the restless list (down 1), and 21 on the active eruption list (up 3). Most activity appears to be elevating slightly.

Hood is virtually quiescent and El Popo is somewhat down this week, only 13 puffs today. Centrapred reports for OCTOBER 2 (16:00 GMT) that "the last 24 hours, the Popocatepetl volcano activity remained with low and steady levels. There were 13 small exhalations accompanied by steam and gas. In addition, there were some episodes of high frequency and low amplitude tremor for about 2 hours. The other monitored parameters remain without important changes."

YELLOWSTONE MUST BE WATCHED

I am getting a lot of clues about Yellowstone and though I would have thought it the least likely volcanic field to get eruptive in North America, it is beginning to show increasing signs of the advent of pre-ignition. The swelling in the valley floor is accelerating and none of the famed geysers work as they have for the last century. Old faithful is pretty petulant and unreliable and new geysers are spouting off. Clearly the underlying geology of cracks and water flows are changing along with the swelling.

There is one additionally critically important clue. I seldom have the ability to make use of this type of information because it is hard to get on a reliable basis. I have received a strong impression from a Sun City lady who is quite tuned into things such as the chi of the human body and what we can call the Feng Shu of the Earth after the fashion of the Chinese sensitives.

I was initiated into sensitivity of the energy during 1980 after learning how to tune into the energies in crystals. At the time I went to Hawaii, the Big Island, to see if I would want to hang out there for a period of time. While traveling from Hilo to the Kona Coast, my lady friend at the time, who was also sensitive to crystals, and I drove up to Kilauea crater on the South end of the Island, which at the time was not active. As we approached the crater, we got thundering pulsating headaches. We massages each other’s heads, and tried to pretend it was going away and went to look at the frozen lava lakes and other strange sights. But we didn’t stay long because the head aches were awful and not at all helped by massages. As we drove down the other side towards Kona, the headaches disappeared on their own accord. Both of us realized at the time that it was the energy of Kilauea which caused the headaches and we wondered if other volcanoes were like that. About two weeks later Kilauea became eruptive again.

For years after that I made a point of going up the flank of Mt. Rainier and other volcanoes to see what I might experience. I never experienced that same type of all encompassing thundering headache in all those years. And of course, none of the volcanoes I was able to monitor physically have shown any eruptive signs.

Last week my Sun City friends, Sheri and Walter stopped by for a visit on their way to tour the Gand Canyon. Sheri told me that she though something was beginning to happen in Yellowstone and she mentioned the terrible headache she had gotten in the Yellowstone Cauldera as they got close to the geyser fields in the middle of the valley floor. She was quite upset about it and was very convinced that something is "up". Given the other objective signs of geological change in the area, I hunch that she is probably adding an important item of information.

I note that geologists on Hawaii are now talking about the increased signs of activity in Mauna Loa which is just about the biggest volcano on Earth. They believe that Mauna Loa is awakening after nearly 30 years or so of slumber.

Mauna Loa IS most of the Big Island of Hawaii and Kilauea is simply an area on its southern flank which has been spilling lava off and on for months or even years on end since humans began to talk about it. Since so much pressure is relieved through Kilauea, the summit of Mauna Loa does not need to be active. If it begins an eruption, it will be, I am quite certain, part of a general upsurge in volcanic activity in various parts of the world.

Accordingly, I think that Yellowstone, Hood, Long Valley, Popo, Trona, and Mauna Loa should be under special watch. I suspect that most of these areas will increase their activity together.

AG INDUSTRY WATCH

Because of the high load of stress which the current peak in the sunspots have placed on the Ag industry, we alert on the changing scene in agriculture and how these are likely to effect the broader economy.

Information about severe crop failures worldwide are mounting rapidly. During the past week, Australia, one of the world’s largest ag industry exporters, has announced the collapse of its ag industry. Wheat production is so eclipsed that exports will be sharply diminished. Sheep and cattle cannot be sustained with local grain sources and this is now forcing a contraction in herds.

Subscribers are sending us reports from various places around the world on what is being reported on the ag situation. Please continue to post these during September and October so that we can generate a large research file of data about the global food situation. From these posts we will gain a perspective during the late fall for making judgements about the problem of shortages and economic disruption.

GEO-POLITICAL WATCH

How the sunspots are likely to most effect human affairs during the weeks and months ahead?

Keep in mind that the definition of "preemptive strike" can be summarized in one short phrase: the assertion of imperialism.

Over-reactions are running pell-mell to a showdown in "Bethleham", speaking metaphorically. As Studs Terkel first remarked, the American Mass Media continues to "goose-step" the U.S. into war with Iraq.

Statements by the former Chairman of the U.N. weapons inspections program in IRAQ this past week reveal that the British claims of proof about the threat of IRAQ are "overstated" with respect to missiles, and entirely "speculative" with respect to everything else. Despite the growing conclusion that there is no evidence to support the war hurricane of hot air, that in fact there is no "beef" to be found related to the threat of Sodamned Insane. Even so, the U.S. House of Representatives has found the collective wisdom to undercut and negate international law and the role of the U.N. by arrogantly proposing that the Bush administration undertake unilateral attacks on Iraq if in Bush’s sole opinion Iraq has not successfully complied with U.N. requirements.

Given the past three months, the behavior of the American Government has provided ample support for the notion that all international military activity MUST BE collectively sanctioned. It would appear that there is far more wisdom to be found among a group of statesman than from one brash but inexperienced leader.

We can still hope that the U.S. Senate can provide more wisdom, and failing the Senate, that the leaders of France, Russia, and China may be able to council the U.S. into a sounder set of propositions than it is currently pushing.

REPEAT FROM PREVIOUS WEEKS:

October’s huge influx of ionic energization will increase emotional over-reactions and intellectual incoherence, esp. on the subject of violence, war, invasions, guilt, blame, revenge, and so on. JUST SAY NO. DARE TO JUST SAY NO TO ALL EMOTIONAL APPEALS, ESPECIALLY TO FEAR OR DESIRE FOR REVENGE. SAY NO TO ALL OF THE DRUM BEATS OF WAR. Demand that all things be logical and consistent. Clarity is sanity. Is there a real threat at the moment? If not, say no.

AND REMEMBER THIS: THERE IS NO CONNECTION

REPEAT, NO CONNECTION

BETWEEN 911 AND THE CURRENT FOCUS ON IRAQ. THIS IS A COMPLETELY DIFFERENT AGENDA BUT THOSE WHO ARE PUSHING IT ARE ATTEMPTING TO MANIPULATE YOU EVERYDAY BY VARIOUS EMOTIONAL PULLS ON THE 911 TRAUMA. NO MATTER HOW SINCERE YOU THINK THESE PEOPLE MAY BE, DON’T LET ANY ONE LEAD YOU TO

CREATE A WAR.

AMERICA IS BEST AND MORALLY CORRECT WHEN IT FIGHTS TO STOP WARS WHICH OTHERS HAVE STARTED.

BUT THIS BUSINESS OF CREATING A WAR ON A WEAK AND IMPOVERISHED NATION CURRENTLY HAS NO MORAL SANCTION AND DOING SO ALMOST CERTAINLY WILL CREATE PROFOUND NEGATIVE CONSEQUENCES THROUGHOUT THE WORLD.

AMONG OTHER THINGS, IT WILL PROFOUNDLY SPLIT THIS NATION RIGHT DOWN THE MIDDLE FOR A GENERATION.

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