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Use The Icons To Guide You
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Earth Changes Bulletin Update As Of October 23, 2002 You have heard of the Weather Report? Here exclusively is this week’s "Earth Report" - a short review of the "big picture" about how the dynamic changes in the Sun and the Earth are effecting our lives more and more intensely, with the latest prognostications and predictions for weathermen, farmers, investors, businessmen, and everyman KEYNOTE THIS WEEK: The Venus solar stormfront approaches the Earth but no one knows yet what is blowing in that wind nor on the Earth. The only thing which is certain is that "The Death Card" remains over the present. Solar, Seismic and Volcanic activity is muted slightly but Geo-Political storms dominate all things as petulant chaos flows higher and higher over the American landscape and surmounts the ramparts of the shining city of the American Dream. Though the solar wind is expected to increase briskly and X class flares are likely, the sunspot count is low and may never climb much higher than it is now. The high count of sunspots in Solar Cycle 23 may be headed down, leaving in its wake carnage in the biosphere and in the affairs of humanity, but no one even can tell that for certain. As given last week, betwixt and between the old order of things and those who are pushing pushing pushing, chaos is all around us while we dimly try to grasp our situation. ________________________________________________________________________ Program Thesis: What are we trying to do with the Earth Changes Bulletin? Most news media do not handle technical and scientific subjects like geology and earth sciences very well. They don't understand the causes and effects of activities in the Sun and Earth. Accordingly, they often do not understand if, when, how, why to report earthquakes, volcanic activity, global warming effects The treatment often sounds absent-minded, poorly qualified, and frequently contains various technical errors. Seldom is the treatment entertaining and genuinely educational. Based on new scientific principles which have emerged during the past thirty years, many of the dynamic activities of the Sun and Earth can be linked together to see how a range of effects are linked together. This makes it possible to paint "the big picture" into a perspective which explains many diverse events and processes, especially climate and weather patterns such as global warming and El Nino. From the "big picture", long range predictions can be made for weeks and even months ahead. The result is sophisticated cutting-edge information which is objective, balanced, astute, relevant, and can be easily seen and appreciated by lay audiences. The perspective is generally global, seldom parochial. ________________________________________________________________________ POLAR MOTION What is happening to the motion of the Earth. REPEAT FROM LAST THREE WEEKS - steady if somewhat flattened showing significant displacement. This appears to continue to demonstrate that the location of Chandler’s Wobble is being displaced more rapidly than in previous years. SUNSPOTS The events in the solar atmosphere which impact weather and climate patterns, the magnetic field and auroras, including forecasts for the week, month, and year ahead. Sunspots went up and down during the last two weeks and peaked in count last Wednesday, October 16, at 215 The count has dropped again steadily with a couple of minor jiggles up and down and stood yesterday at 130. Overall Solar Flux Index stands at ~170 for yesterday, which is roughly where it as been for the past two weeks. To follow these numbers, view the Solar Cycle 23 Chart at http://www.michaelmandeville.com/earthmonitor/topten_monitor.htm So far, the sunspot count has not increased to nearly the height which I have been expecting, based on the patterns of the past couple of years. Will they suddenly peak to much higher levels? They may. If so, it is more likely than not that the peak will not maintain for very long. But the failure to meet expectations at this point casts considerable doubt about making any predictions. This may be good news. I hope it is. It may be that Solar Cycle 23 really is finally beginning to fizzle on down to much lower levels by the end of the year. If so, the last half of winter may become more normal than the past few years. Just in case, for the benefit of newbies, is a repeat of last weeks forecasts. REPEAT FROM LAST WEEK: Given the performance of the sun the past several weeks, the counts and the flex numbers are likely to change suddenly in either direction at any time. The next change will most likely be up. Several up and down spikes may be the order of the remainder of the month but in general, the ups should bring a large number of sunspots during the last week of October during the Venus|Earth alignment, counts of 300 plus are still possible. REPEAT FROM LAST WEEK: The general pattern seems increasingly consistent with a gradual turndown in the peak sunspot count of Solar Cycle 23. The graphs seem to show that this may become fairly definite in November. But this may be an illusion created by looking too closely to a limited period of time on the graph. The best time to evaluate what is happening with Solar Cycle 23 for the next twelve months will be about Thanksgiving Day. So far Venus is sure to pull into the Earth a tremendous surge of solar atmosphere and this surge will persist for at least three weeks beyond the Venus-Earth alignment during the last week of October. This alignment can be seen at: The alignment period with Venus is even now upon us and the alignment will be virtually perfect October 26th through October 29th. Then it will remain in close alignment through the middle of November. Sunspot numbers have already begun to climb for this alignment, (I THINK), they soared up from 85 to 155 on October 3rd and 4th and fluctuating now between 125 and 155. The curve for the numbers should look something like September’s numbers for the Mercury/Venus connection. As previously predicted, the numbers could rocket past 300 but it seems more doubtful now and mid 200’s may be far closer to the performance. SOLAR STORMS As predicted HERE all summer, AURORAS WATCHING HAS BEEN SUPERLATIVE THIS OCTOBER. This next two or three weeks may be the best opportunity for aurora watching for the next several years. After the Venus alignment, Solar Cycle may slowly fizzle out during the next year with a constant diminishment in the ionic influx which paints the colors. Currently, the U of Alaska Fluxgate is calm with only a couple of minor magnetic disturbances during the preceding week. This has continued to give weather patterns breathing room to "normalize". But this probably will not last long. The solar wind remains quite brisk and today it is at 413 km/s as of this hour. This is fast, even for the solar wind, and the speed shows considerable chop between 400 and 500 today. A large coronal hole (a hole in the magnetic containment of the Sun’s atmosphere from which solar wind usually streams out quite vigorously) apparently is following Venus dead on at the moment. NASA expects the solar wind from this hole to hit Earth as early as October 25, which is just one day in advance of the Venus|Earth Alignment. This combination should pack a lot of wallop to induce more extremes and chaotic reactions in the weather patterns on Earth. Currently NASA is watching Sunspot 162 as it continues to grow. Experts believe that this area on the sun now poses a threat for powerful X-class solar flares. The impressive spot stretches nearly 20 Earth-diameters from end to end, large enough to be seen without telescopes, if the sun light is properly filtered. If it blows, it is likely to blow close to the Venus|Earth Alignment GLOBAL DROUGHT AND FLOOD WATCH Stories and assessments about drought and flood conditions around the world; global information which provides the ability to assess the impacts to agriculture and the natural environment. AS PREDICTED LAST TWO WEEKS: Extreme storms and rainfall should continue to escalate during the month and persist for a couple of weeks in November to produce an exceptionally wet fall in Northern Eurasia. REPEAT FROM PREVIOUS WEEKS: All of this of course, as discussed previously, is created by the high levels of ionic energy in the Earth’s atmosphere which robs the wet moist ocean air from many of the monsoon belts in the middle latitudes. The energy sends most of the equatorial ocean air up much higher in elevation and latitude, leaving drought in the monsoon belts while creating exceptional floods in the Northern latitudes. EL NINO WATCH: As stated last week, the relatively warm water on the Equator in the Pacific has not increased and may have diminished slightly. Overall, the gross average surface temperature of the Pacific Ocean appears to be significantly cooler than last year at this time. I continue to believe that the warm spots on the Equator will most likely break up during November and the predicted "weak El Nino" will fail to make an appearance. DO NOT EXPECT AN EL NINO WINTER. EARTHQUAKES Around the world to see the current and potential patterns of seismic activity, with coverage of the windows of danger. For all quakes above 3.0 in magnitude, seismic activity was even more widely distributed throughout the world in all the usual places than during previous weeks. Frequency and magnitude continues to appear more muted than has often been the case during syzygy windows during the past couple of years. A few modest quakes appeared in the interior of continents (which is relatively rare) and some appeared in tectonic plate boundaries which have been largely silent for the past several months. For all quakes of all sizes in California /Nevada, the USGS plots a running total of 274 quakes for the past seven days, all too small to note. This is the same number as last week and I wonder if the software is working right. It seemed from the World Charts that California activity has picked up this past week. The USGS charts for the Pacific Northwest reveals 29 micro quakes for the running total of the past two weeks widely scattered through the Cascades and Eastern Washington. These numbers for the Pacific Coast are a little on the muted side for a Full Moon. YELLOWSTONE: The USGS chart for the Yellowstone Area reveals a running total for the past week of 38 small quakes within the cauldera, centered near Old Faithful or just outside the rim. This is substantially down from last week which showed 107 small quakes. The stress focus for this past week seems to have shifted to central Utah, which had 21 small quakes widely scattered through the "weak zone" of the Rocky Mountain Plateau, which runs through the valley of the Great Salt Lake. VOLCANOES Around the world with the most interesting and relevant volcano stories; briefs on the likely eruptions as well as coverage of on-going activity. Last week it seemed that volcanic activity was sagging. It might have been but it is currently increasing slightly this week. The Southwest Volcano Centre reports 39 volcanoes on the alert status list (up one from last week), 5 volcanoes on the restless list (same as last two weeks), and 23 on the active eruption list (up one from last week). Overall, world volcanism seemed to be muted in almost all volcanoes this past week even though the overall numbers creeped up slightly. Kilauea’s flows seemed less vigorous this past week as did the action in a lot of volcanoes. Worldwide there was only one really good explosion to mark the week on October 21. Rabaul gave us an eruption which " produced a thick dark ash plume to about 3km in height before dispersing to the north and northwest. Similar explosions are expected to continue for the next couple of days. More details will be reported as they are received by SWVRC." Pago and Montserrat remain on high alert status and are considered extremely dangerous. Both of these are likely to erupt explosively this year or sometime next year, probably earlier than later. Hood remains completely quiescent but El Popo,
breaking its normal pattern, began to wake up today. It upsurged slightly to give us 15
puffs and some periods of minor trembles. Centrapred reports for OCTOBER 23 (16:00 GMT)
that "In the last 24 hours there were 15 low intensity exhalations accompanied by
steam, gas and some times small amounts of ash. Also, there were some episodes of harmonic
and low amplitude tremor for about 5 hours. The other monitored parameters remain without
important changes." JUST WHEN WE THOUGHT WE HAD A GOOD BELLWETHER, POPO COPS AN ATTITUDE AND HEADS IN THE OPPOSITE DIRECTION OF MOST OF THE OTHER VOLCANOES. MAYBE IT IS JUST THE FULL MOON. But all is not lost, the world activity numbers were up slightly even though the actions seemed muted in most places. El Popo’s puffs need to be graphed in a rigorous way to see to what extent its ups and down correlated with other volcanoes. AG INDUSTRY WATCH Because of the high load of stress which the current peak in the sunspots have placed on the Ag industry, we alert on the changing scene in agriculture and how these are likely to effect the broader economy. REPEAT FROM PREVIOUS WEEKS: Subscribers have sent me a large number of reports from the internet from various governments or other institutions around the world which tell of the terrible consequences of this year’s weather (floods and drought) on agricultural crops. Keep the reports coming in. It will take some serious time to wade through them but continue to send references in. It is highly important and no one person will find the diversity of info which your are sending, so I am going to be able to put together a fairly penetrating summary. I will wait until November as I we may be able to "call" the sunspot cycle towards the end of the month, perhaps somewhat sooner, so that the assessment will be even more comprehensive. GEO-POLITICAL WATCH How the sunspots are likely to most effect human affairs during the weeks and months ahead? REPEAT FROM LAST WEEK: Hyper-reactive behavior is still the order of the day. One can see it in the Montgomery Sniper, one can see it in the collective response to the Montgomery Sniper. One terrorist HAS terrified a million people or more. The media has amplified the events and the signal of local fear into a stampede of reaction which has frightened an entire region. What if there were three of those guys moving up and down the East Coast? Could they negate the orderly working of the entire system? Elsewhere, as predicted as early as June here, the Bush drive to war with Iraq has destroyed the focus on the war with terrorism and completely aborted any efforts to create peace in Palestine. International reactions have mounted and political tension in the U.S. is increasingly generating stalemate and deadlock in both politics and the economy. Currently it is likely that the economy is dipping seriously into recession while political disagreement at all levels is drowning out even the drive towards by the rightwingnut axis in Washington DC. Again, as predicted during June this year for the Venus|Earth alignment, THE ECONOMY IS IN THE TUBES, THE STOCK MARKET IS UP AND DOWN ALL OVER THE LANDSCAPE, CONFUSION NOW REIGNS, ACTION IS STALEMATED, TERRORISM IS RAPIDLY ESCALATING ITS ACTIVITY, SEVERAL LARGE ECONOMIES AROUND THE WORLD ARE IN CHRONIC FAILURE, THE U.S. IS UNDER DIRECT ATTACK BY CLANDESTINE FORCES, AND THE OUTCOME OF THE NOVEMBER ELECTIONS IS TOO CLOSE TO CALL BUT IS LIKELY TO LEAVE THE GOVERNMENT EVENLY DIVIDED WITH AN INCREASINGLY AGITATED LEFT MILITANTLY MOBILIZING TO THROW THE RIGHT WING OUT OF GOVERNMENT DURING SUCCEEDING ELECTIONS. And we haven’t even gotten to the crop failures and food shortages. SIGN OF THE TIMES: Meanwhile Ken Lay, the Presiding Officer of the rape of California Consumers, otherwise known as Enron, is still scott free with his crooked billions and the best the Bush administration can do is harass a liberal democrat funder, Marsha Stewart, for alleged but unprovable "insider trading" of a minor amount of stock.
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