 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
| Cayce | Cosmic Catalog | Earthmonitor | Index | Library | Seminars | Phoenix Quest | Phoenix Trilogy |
Use The Icons To Guide You
|
Earth Changes Bulletin Update As Of October 16, 2002 You have heard of the Weather Report? Here exclusively is this week’s "Earth Report" - a short review of the "big picture" about how the dynamic changes in the Sun and the Earth are effecting our lives more and more intensely, with the latest prognostications and predictions for weathermen, farmers, investors, businessmen, and everyman KEYNOTE THIS WEEK: As begun last week, the Venus solar stormfront approaches closer to the Earth but no one knows what is blowing in the wind. Betwixt and between the old order of things and those who are pushing pushing pushing, chaos is all around us while we dimly try to grasp our situation. The only thing which is certain is that "The Death Card" overlays the present. Solar, Seismic and Volcanic activity increase slightly but Geo-Political storms dominate all things as petulant chaos flows higher and higher over the American landscape and surmounts the ramparts of the shining city of the American Dream. ________________________________________________________________________ Program Thesis: What are we trying to do with the Earth Changes Bulletin? Most news media do not handle technical and scientific subjects like geology and earth sciences very well. They don't understand the causes and effects of activities in the Sun and Earth. Accordingly, they often do not understand if, when, how, why to report earthquakes, volcanic activity, global warming effects The treatment often sounds absent-minded, poorly qualified, and frequently contains various technical errors. Seldom is the treatment entertaining and genuinely educational. Based on new scientific principles which have emerged during the past thirty years, many of the dynamic activities of the Sun and Earth can be linked together to see how a range of effects are linked together. This makes it possible to paint "the big picture" into a perspective which explains many diverse events and processes, especially climate and weather patterns such as global warming and El Nino. From the "big picture", long range predictions can be made for weeks and even months ahead. The result is sophisticated cutting-edge information which is objective, balanced, astute, relevant, and can be easily seen and appreciated by lay audiences. The perspective is generally global, seldom parochial. ________________________________________________________________________ POLAR MOTION What is happening to the motion of the Earth. REPEAT FROM LAST TWO WEEKS - steady if somewhat flattened showing significant displacement. As reported during the past few weeks, the spiral track made by Earth’s Spin Axis in Chandler’s Wobble continues to tighten up on the right side of the graph. This appears to continue to demonstrate that the location of Chandler’s Wobble is being displaced more rapidly than in previous years. SUNSPOTS The events in the solar atmosphere which impact weather and climate patterns, the magnetic field and auroras, including forecasts for the week, month, and year ahead. Sunspots radically peaked in count last Thursday, October 10, up to 245 from a low of 124, all in one day! The count dropped again just as suddenly beginning the next day to about 180 and jiggled up and down slightly during the past few days to stand yesterday at 165. Overall Solar Flux Index stands at ~175 for yesterday. To follow these numbers, view the Solar Cycle 23 Chart at http://www.michaelmandeville.com/earthmonitor/topten_monitor.htm Given the performance of the sun the past several weeks, the counts and the flex numbers are likely to change suddenly in either direction at any time. The next change will most likely be up. Several up and down spikes may be the order of the remainder of the month but in general, the ups should bring a large number of sunspots during the last week of October during the Venus|Earth alignment, counts of 300 plus are still possible. The general pattern seems increasingly consistent with a gradual turndown in the peak sunspot count of Solar Cycle 23. The graphs seem to show that this may become fairly definite in November. But this may be an illusion created by looking too closely to a limited period of time on the graph. The best time to evaluate what is happening with Solar Cycle 23 for the next twelve months will be about Thanksgiving Day. REPEAT FROM PREVIOUS WEEKS: Venus is sure to pull into the Earth a tremendous surge of solar atmosphere and this surge will persist for at least three weeks beyond the Venus-Earth alignment during the last week of October. This alignment can be seen at: The alignment period with Venus is even now upon us and the alignment will be virtually perfect October 26th through October 29th. Then it will remain in close alignment through the middle of November. Sunspot numbers have already begun to climb for this alignment, (I THINK), they soared up from 85 to 155 on October 3rd and 4th and fluctuating now between 125 and 155. The curve for the numbers should look something like September’s numbers for the Mercury/Venus connection. As previously predicted, the numbers could rocket past 300 but it seems more doubtful now and mid 200’s may be far closer to the performance.
SOLAR STORMS As predicted HERE all summer, AURORAS WATCHING HAS BEEN SUPERLATIVE THIS OCTOBER AND THEY SHOULD CONTINUE TO COME IN GREAT QUANTITY FOR THE REMAINDER OF OCTOBER AND INTO NOVEMBER. Currently, the U of Alaska Fluxgate is pretty calm and few magnetic disturbances disrupted the preceding week, giving weather patterns some breathing room to "normalize". But the solar wind has been quite irregular and yesterday it was flowing extremely briskly at 544 km/s. That’s fast, even for the solar wind. A vast explosion ripped apart a huge prominence yesterday and at least two CME’s (coronal mass ejections = explosions) today are headed our way. Since the direction of none of these are square at the Earth, and also since no coronal hole is apparent on the surface of the Sun, NASA predicts only weak impacts on the Earth. But additional explosions could occur anytime and these could produce sudden, severe electromagnetic disturbances. NASA suggests this is a great time to view the space station with the shuttle hooked up on it. For the story about how to find it: http://science.nasa.gov/headlines/y2002/16oct_spaceships.htm For the best viewing time for your zip code, go to: http://liftoff.msfc.nasa.gov/RealTime/JPass/ GLOBAL DROUGHT AND FLOOD WATCH Stories and assessments about drought and flood conditions around the world; global information which provides the ability to assess the impacts to agriculture and the natural environment. All conditions continue to appear to be normalizing at this point and the Fall weather is quite pleasant far and wide. Temperatures in central Arizona are quite moderate and this is currently a great time for exploring the Southwest outdoors without air conditioners. Though skies are often partially overcast, everything is drying up again, as is normal for this time of year. AS PREDICTED LAST WEEK: Extreme storms and rainfall should continue to escalate during the month to produce an exceptionally wet fall in Northern Eurasia. REPEAT FROM PREVIOUS WEEKS: All of this of course, as discussed previously, is created by the high levels of ionic energy in the Earth’s atmosphere which robs the wet moist ocean air from many of the monsoon belts in the middle latitudes. The energy sends most of the equatorial ocean air up much higher in elevation and latitude, leaving drought in the monsoon belts while creating exceptional floods in the Northern latitudes. EL NINO WATCH: The relatively warm water on the Equator in the Pacific has not increased and may have diminished slightly. It will most likely break up during November and the predicted "weak El Nino" will, I predict, fail to make an appearance. DO NOT EXPECT AN EL NINO WINTER. THIS WINTER IN NORTH AMERICA SHOULD BE MORE SIMILAR TO LAST YEAR’S THAN SO-CALLED "NORMAL" OR EL NINO WINTERS. EARTHQUAKES Around the world to see the current and potential patterns of seismic activity, with coverage of the windows of danger. For all quakes above 3.0 in magnitude, seismic activity was widely distributed throughout the world in all the usual places, somewhat muted in frequency. The Northern Arc of the Pacific Rim of Fire took a lot of hits. Several large 6.0 plus quakes struck today in Kamchatka and the South Seas. As predicted on Sunday, the huge ruptures near Papua/New Guinea resulted in a sudden upsurge in quakes around Japan. These were mirrored in the Pacific Northwest, not in California, which is the more typical pattern. There did not appear to be an unusual pattern or major new focal point appear. For all quakes of all sizes in California /Nevada, the USGS plots a running total of 274 quakes for the past seven days, all too small to note. The USGS charts for the Pacific Northwest reveals 31 micro quakes for the running total of the past two weeks widely scattered through the Cascades and Eastern Washington. These numbers are all well within normal ranges. YELLOWSTONE: The USGS chart for the Yellowstone Area reveals a running total for the past week of 107 small quakes within the cauldera, centered near Old Faithful or just outside the rim. This is a fairly large number for such a small area and it shows the elevation of volcanic activity which seems to have become to surge upwards during this past week. For future reference, this chart can be viewed at http://www.seis.utah.edu/recenteqs/Maps/111-45.html Two weeks ago we began a trial experiment to see if we could see how the position of the Moon north or south of the Equator would effect the pattern of quakes on the USGS World Quake Chart. Last week we noticed that Quake activity in the Northern Hemisphere outweighed the Southern Hemisphere, which paralleled the Moon’s location in the Northern Hemisphere for part of the time. This past week, the Moon has been orbiting in the Southern Hemisphere and even MORE quakes occurred in the Northern Hemisphere. One might want to blame it on the Sun, but the Sun is now also South of the Equator. So much for that experiment. VOLCANOES Around the world with the most interesting and relevant volcano stories; briefs on the likely eruptions as well as coverage of on-going activity. Last week it seemed that volcanic activity was sagging. It might have been but it is currently increasing slightly this week. The Southwest Volcano Centre reports 38 volcanoes on the alert status list (up one from last week), 5 volcanoes on the restless list (same as last week), and 22 on the active eruption list (up one from last week). Activity appears to have increased modestly this last week in volcanoes throughout the Pacific Rim of Fire and in the Etna Zone, enough to prompt updates this week for the profiles of a great many of the volcanoes which are on the active list. Nothing extravagant at this time, just the business as usual of rumbling, ash emissions, some lava flows, and a few pyroclastic throws. Pago and Montserrat remain on high alert status and are considered extremely dangerous. Both of these are likely to erupt explosively this year or sometime next year, probably earlier than later. Mona Loa (Hawaii) is making local experts quite nervous and they are beginning to warn that it may erupt during the next year. Hood remains virtually quiescent but El Popo, as
usual, paralleled the increase in volcanic activity worldwide. It upsurged slightly to
give us 6 puffs and a couple of earthquakes today. Centrapred reports for OCTOBER 16
(16:00 GMT) that "In the last 24 hours, the Popocatepetl volcano activity remained
with low and steady levels. There were only 6 small steam and gas exhalations, it were
detected two volcanotectonic microearthquakes, the first one with magnitude M=2.6 and
located at 5.7 km deep, the second one with magnitude M= 2.1 was located at 5.7 km deep,
both of them had an epicenter at 500 m to the East from the crater. The other monitored
parameters remain without important changes." ONCE AGAIN WE SEE THAT POPO IS AN EXCELLENT CORRELATE TO WORLDWIDE VOLCANISM. This is a great project for kids. AG INDUSTRY WATCH Because of the high load of stress which the current peak in the sunspots have placed on the Ag industry, we alert on the changing scene in agriculture and how these are likely to effect the broader economy. REPEAT FROM PREVIOUS WEEKS: Subscribers have sent me a large number of reports from the internet from various governments or other institutions around the world which tell of the terrible consequences of this year’s weather (floods and drought) on agricultural crops. Keep the reports coming in. It will take some serious time to wade through them but continue to send references in. It is highly important and no one person will find the diversity of info which your are sending, so I am going to be able to put together a fairly penetrating summary. I will wait until November as I we may be able to "call" the sunspot cycle towards the end of the month, perhaps somewhat sooner, so that the assessment will be even more comprehensive. GEO-POLITICAL WATCH How the sunspots are likely to most effect human affairs during the weeks and months ahead? REPEAT FROM PREVIOUS WEEKS: October’s huge influx of ionic energization will increase emotional over-reactions and intellectual incoherence, esp. on the subject of violence, war, invasions, guilt, blame, revenge, and so on. JUST SAY NO. DARE TO JUST SAY NO TO ALL EMOTIONAL APPEALS, ESPECIALLY TO FEAR OR DESIRE FOR REVENGE. SAY NO TO ALL OF THE DRUM BEATS OF WAR. REPEAT FROM LAST WEEK: Hyper-reactive behavior is still the order of the day. One can see it in the Montgomery Sniper, one can see it in the collective response to the Montgomery Sniper. One minor non-terrorist? wacko HAS terrified a million people or more. The media has amplified the events and the signal of local fear into a stampede of reaction which has frightened an entire region. What if there were three of those guys moving up and down the East Coast? Could they negate the orderly working of the entire system? NEW: Did you observe the massive traffic tie-up on Monday evening as police closed freeways and began searching car to car. Ouch!!! Does anyone really expect the Tarot Sniper(s) to be caught that way? ALL THIS DOES IS INCREASE THE LEVEL OF CHAOS Excessive use of brawn is always the temptation of those who command a lot of it. But it seldom is a match for brains and determination, both of which the Tarot Sniper(s) has amply demonstrated. Let’s hope authorities return to their senses. Meanwhile the American Mass Media and White House Administration continues to drumbeat you at every turn while hypnotically repeating over and over and over again that some how the Iraq situation is linked with 911. To get revenge for 911 and win the war on terrorism, we must now disarm Iraq. This is pure political manipulation of the crassest kind. To be sure, insuring that Sodamned Insane has no weapons of mass disruption is a good idea. Retiring Sodamned Insane is an even better idea. But this is not connected with the war on terror and the current focus on it is a profound strategic mistake. It has allowed Al Qaeda to regroup and it would appear from the increasing level of violence around the world this past three weeks, that Al Qaeda is successfully mounting the second wave of its offensive. Here is the nature of the geopolitical storm which is gathering strength all around you whilst portions of the American Establishment prepares by any means possible to goose step over the cliff of war with Iraq. It is highly likely that the Tarot Sniper, who has ID’ed himself quite well by respecting the Sabbath of all the Peoples of the Book (Muslims, Hebrews, and Jews) is a part of the new Al Qaeda offensive. Considering that they have learned how to use one or two people or a handful of people and a couple of bullets a day to tie down a large bureaucracy while petrifying a million or more people, one must conclude that Al Qaeda is ecstatically preparing a tidal wave of similar activities. That this is the hand of Al Qaeda, or a closely affiliated group, is a conclusion which begs to be made. They pledged that their primary goal was to bring the violence in Palestine to America and bring the Americans to suffer the same sense of powerlessness and fear as the Palestinians have suffered. Have they not succeeded? And with practically no more than a cheap riffle and a pocket full of ammunition. How could the Tarot Sniper be anything other than this war front? I fear that the Al Qaeda sense of strategy and tactics so outclasses Americans that the terrorists will have the momentum of success for a considerable period of time as they cause the people of North America to sink into increasing chaos and polarization between themselves and the rest of the world. REMEMBER, THERE IS NO CONNECTION BETWEEN 911 AND THE CURRENT FOCUS ON IRAQ.
|
