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Earth Changes Bulletin Update As Of November 13, 2002 You have heard of the Weather Report? Here exclusively is this weeks "Earth Report" - a short review of the "big picture" about how the dynamic changes in the Sun and the Earth are effecting our lives more and more intensely, with the latest prognostications and predictions for weathermen, farmers, investors, businessmen, and everyman Volcanic activity is up this week even as the quaking subsides amidst a slightly weakening Sunspot Cycle. History has turned and is headed for new territory, but probably not where anyone has in mind Like the Sunspot Cycle, history will begin to shift rapidly early next year. For the Bush Administration, the shift is likely to reveal the shoals of an amazing trap in the sands of Arabia which will ensnare the American rightwing and hasten its fall from grace. Let us hope that the rightwing does not pull the entire nation down with it. ________________________________________________________________________ Program Thesis: What are we trying to do with the Earth Changes Bulletin? Most news media do not handle technical and scientific subjects like geology and earth sciences very well. They don't understand the causes and effects of activities in the Sun and Earth. Accordingly, they often do not understand if, when, how, why to report earthquakes, volcanic activity, global warming effects The treatment often sounds absent-minded, poorly qualified, and frequently contains various technical errors. Seldom is the treatment entertaining and genuinely educational. Based on new scientific principles which have emerged during the past thirty years, many of the dynamic activities of the Sun and Earth can be linked together to see how a range of effects are linked together. This makes it possible to paint "the big picture" into a perspective which explains many diverse events and processes, especially climate and weather patterns such as global warming and El Nino. From the "big picture", long range predictions can be made for weeks and even months ahead. The result is sophisticated cutting-edge information which is objective, balanced, astute, relevant, and can be easily seen and appreciated by lay audiences. The perspective is generally global, seldom parochial. ________________________________________________________________________ POLAR MOTION What is happening to the motion of the Earth. As report for the past few months, the current track of Chandlers Wobble (the observed locations of the spin axis at the North Pole) continues to show a definite flattening of the spiral motion. Curiously, this flattening is in the same quadrant of the Earth which showed severe disturbance of the spiral track during 1999 and 2000, when the 6.5 year spiral cycle of Chandlers Wobble was at its minimum size. THIS APPEARS TO CONTINUE TO DEMONSTRATE THAT THE LOCATION OF CHANDLERS WOBBLE IS BEING DISPLACED MORE RAPIDLY THAN IN PREVIOUS YEARS, INDEED, THIS IS BECOMING NEARLY CERTAIN. This displacement can be seen with considerable clarity in this weeks latest Wobble Track image of the motion of the spin axis in Chandlers Wobble; http://www.michaelmandeville.com/earthmonitor/polarmotion/plots/wobbletrac_Nov13_2002.gif As you look at this chart, once can see the beginning of the latest 6.5 year spiral track at the dangling end which is shown at the top right of the spiral drawing, This was January 1996, which was just about the maximum size of the spiral track. The track can be seen to spiral in towards the center and become a small badly dented circle (1998/99). Then the track spirals outward again in the blue line and makes a radical expansion which bisects two spiral tracks (black lines) to nearly meet the largest spiral track last year. All of this motion since 1998 is anomalous. A stable spiral form for Chandlers Wobble would show a far more symmetrical in and out flow of the track and the spiral tracks should bisect each other exactly once on each circle (each basic circle track describes a period of about 14 months). The anomaly continues to this day. The current track is not where it should be. The current date can be spotted at the dangling end which can be found on the right hand side of the track a little below the Y Axis (which represents Longitude West 180 on the left side and Longitude East 180 on the right side of the graph. (The X Axis of course is Greenwich Meridian and the bottom of the graph is the Atlantic Hemisphere and the top half of the graph is the Pacific Hemisphere). This current track should be the second track in from the maximum spiral track of 1996. Instead it is the third in from the maximum size and it is inside the spiral track which was made last year. THIS NEVER HAPPENS ON SUCH A PERSISTENT BASIS, or at least it has not happened since approximately 1936 when the last major alteration of the track of the pole occurred. Each 6.5-7 year cycle of Chandlers Wobble is somewhat unique and all of the tracks normally shown some minor variations which geophysicists have found relate to orbital perturbances, solar storms, influence of ocean currents, and other minor geophysical factors. But these have never induced this sort of strange, large, persistent anomaly. Given the persistence of this anomaly it appears that something in fact went bump in the night sometime during 1998 and has induced a marked acceleration of the drift or shifting of the average location of the spin axis. Because of the complexity of the spiral waveform and its normal minor variations, this acceleration is only just now becoming to become obvious enough to treat as a probable fact worthy of attentive analysis on the part of professional astrophysicists. I do not have sufficient command of the computational algorithms which are necessary to pin the drift in the spin axis exactemente on the wall. But I can make a crude guestimate by simply observing that the current track is where the last track should be. On this rough and ready basis, we can make out that the displacement for this cycle of Chandlers Wobble (the 6.5 year X Wave Cycle) would appear to be as much as .035 arc seconds down approximately Long. West 90 (probably more like about West 80-85). That is a total displacement of 42.5334 inches (over a full meter, or 108.034836 centimeters) since early 1997 when the maximum track on the right was drawn. Since we are nearly at the close of this year, let us simply use a divisor of 5 years to calculate the average annual rate. This would be some 8.50668 inches/year (21.6069672 cm/year). No motion or wander of the average location of the spin axis can be detected in the spiral tracks of Chandlers Wobble prior to about 1900. But geophysicists have calculated that the average location of the spin axis has shifted (they use the term "true wander") approximately .4 arcseconds between 1935 and 1996. If so, this implies a long term trend during the last half of the 20th century of 7.98 in/yr (19.52 cm/yr). Accordingly, the recent acceleration in the shifting of the average location of the spin axis may be in the approximate range of 6.5%. The upsurge in volcanism and the huge increase in seismic activity during the first two weeks of November 2002 is probably linked to the flattening of the spiral motion of the pole and this acceleration in the shifting in the average location of the poles. A correlate of seismic activity to the rate of shifting in the average location of the pole could be calculated now from internet databases, factored in of course to account for the "phases" of the 6.5 spiral X Wave (or Y Wave) in Chandlers Wobble and variations in the lunar orbit. This of course would take a lot of time and considerable mathematical/statistical sophistication. It is worthy of major work by a small team of people. The same thing could be done with volcanism but this is considerably more subjective. Records are not consistent enough and activity is not uniformly described in the same way. SUNSPOTS The events in the solar atmosphere which impact weather and climate patterns, the magnetic field and auroras, including forecasts for the week, month, and year ahead. The number of sunspots bobbed up and down between 120 and 260 during the last two weeks of this Venus|Earth Alignment. The highest peak was three days ago when the count reached 230 for one day. The count quickly dipped down to 155 for yesterday but the brain cells for my upper chakras tell me that it began to rise again today. Curiously enough, the sunspot waves have been exhibiting a cycle of about five days for the past couple of months, with sharp spikes up and then sharp drop-offs without holding at any plateau for more than two days at the most. What this is about I have not a clue. Anyone have a correlate? To follow these numbers, view the Solar Cycle 23 Chart at http://www.michaelmandeville.com/earthmonitor/topten_monitor.htm (if you got a no show for the sunspot chart the last couple of days, it was because the directory structure for the solar chart was shifted the URL link has now been fixed). The sunspot count to rise with this Venus|Earth Alignment in the classic "train" position, coming up to peak at 260 almost two weeks after the alignment. The alignment is now breaking up and indeed Venus can already be seen in the morning sky again. According, the trend must now be ever downward. I expect the average count now to sag below 100 no later than January of next year, hopefully making Cycle 23 Peak (monthly averages over 100) a bit on the short side at about 41 months (the average is closer to about 48 months). BUT - how long this will take to take the
monthly average count below 100 is anyones guess. There is no real sunspot average
cycle. They all vary quite widely and so the average is definitely an illusion. SOLAR STORMS The sun is still fritzing and very very brisk solar winds through the coronal holes (so-called magnetic holes in the suns atmosphere) keep appearing. Solar winds hit a high of 690 yesterday and were about 502 as of this afternoon. Take a look at todays images of solar phenomenon from the SOHO satellite and you will see that the solar surface remains very stormy indeed. http://sohowww.nascom.nasa.gov/data/LATEST/? The heaviest stormy area in the Southwest quadrant of the Sun is probably activity which is being directly pulled by the Earth. NASA reports a 75% probability of M class flares and a 10% probability of X class flares. Despite the robust solar wind, magnetic disturbances have been mild this past few days, according to the Fluxgate at the U. of Alaska. But NASA reports that another huge coronal hole will bring even gustier solar winds during November 15 to 17. Accordingly, this coming weekend should be pretty good for auroras. GLOBAL DROUGHT AND FLOOD WATCH Stories and assessments about drought and flood conditions around the world; global information which provides the ability to assess the impacts to agriculture and the natural environment. All of this of course suggests a new uptick in the energy in the atmosphere and bigger weather patterns during next week with bigger badder attitudes. I remember Thanksgivings with terrible weather. Expect such this year. PLAN ON IT. As predicted, extreme storms and rainfall did indeed continue to escalate this past couple of weeks for an exceptionally wet fall in Northern Eurasia. Ireland is still getting the brunt of Atlantic storms Melody in Ireland reports a perfectly cold miserable fall. North America is terribly confused with warm very wet Pacific Air colliding with Canadian air to produce terrific tornadoes for disaster collectors. This is going to continue through the month. AS PREVIOUSLY REPORTED: The sun still packs a lot of ionic energy into the Earth and Venus is still so close to the Earth that any flare up in the sun will be transmitted directly to the Earth. With such flare ups, the energy sends most of the equatorial ocean air up much higher in elevation and latitude, leaving drought in the monsoon belts while creating exceptional floods in the Northern latitudes. AS PREVIOUSLY REPORTED: So anything could happen to the weather this fall and definitely expect chaos and some extremes to emerge in the weather suddenly fairly shortly after a major solar flare or appearance of a new coronal hole. But in the main, vis a vis solar activity, look now in the main for a long slow gradual return to more normal weather patterns. EL NINO WATCH: As reported last week, there has been a sudden upsurge in warm water (above average in the range of 8 degrees F.) standing on the Equator in the Pacific. This upsurge continues. This irritates me personally because it may make me wrong. There may indeed be El Nino Syndrome set in for the Pacific region this coming winter and spring. The sudden cooling in the northerly latitudes of North America may directly reflect this sudden warming of the mid Pacific. However, the average temperature of the surface of the Pacific Ocean is probably very very close to what it was last year. The main difference is in the current location of the warm patches. Instead of being located in the middling latitudes, the warm water is all standing right along the Equator. If this pattern does not break up during the next few weeks, this winter and spring should be a lot like the early months of 1998 wet, very very wet. This will break the drought in the American Southwest. If this El Nino comes about, which it was due in this year in accordance with the X Wave correlations I have established, it is coming apparent a good six months later in the year than it has for the last three El Ninos. Because of the lack of formation in early April, I have strongly discounted it happening this year until this point. Thus next year, the year of the X Wave Max (maximum size of Chandlers Wobble at about 50 feet in diameter) will go in the books as an El Nino Year, the first time the two have ever occurred together. But since EVERYTHING ELSE IS SO DAMNED WACKY THIS YEAR, THIS IS HARDLY SURPRISING. EARTHQUAKES Around the world to see the current and potential patterns of seismic activity, with coverage of the windows of danger. Whewwwwwwwwwwwwwwwww. That was one hell of a New Moon Syzygy and it produced some phenomenal record-breaking quaking. Thank God its over. Both frequency and magnitudes are now muted substantially and are more or less at an average level for the quakes 3.0 and greater. Except for continual modest sized quakes of about two per day in central Alaska (which is highly unusual but not as part of the after quakes for the 7.9 quake last week) worldwide quake activity seems random showing up in all the usual places throughout the Pacific Rim of Fire but activity is virtually non-existent the past three days in the Med-Himalayan Belt. Despite the recent world activity, California was relatively quiescent. For all quakes of all sizes in California /Nevada, the USGS plots a running total of 217 quakes for the past seven days, all too small to note except for the 4.1 quake in the Coastal Mountains just south of San Jose. This number is low compared to the activity of Californias microquakes during the past few months. Despite the upheavals in Alaska, the USGS charts for the Pacific Northwest reveals the same muting of activity with only 33 micro quakes (two week sum) widely scattered through the Cascades and Eastern Washington. YELLOWSTONE: The USGS chart for the Yellowstone Area reveals a running total for the past week of 34 small quakes within the cauldera, centered near Old Faithful or just outside the rim. This is down from the 38 reported two weeks ago. The "weak zone" of the Rocky Mountain Plateau, which runs through the valley of the Great Salt Lake and central Utah, showed only 11 quakes for the past week, about the same as last week. LONG VALLEY CAULDERA IN CALIFORNIA: The USGS chart for the Long Valley Cauldera (quakes of all sizes for the last week) shows 35 microquakes in the vicinity, a great deal of them just to the South of the Cauldera. Second to Yellowstone and the volcanoes on the Alaskan Peninsula, this is currently the most active volcanic area in North America. VOLCANOES Around the world with the most interesting and relevant volcano stories; briefs on the likely eruptions as well as coverage of on-going activity. In the wake of the intense quaking early last week during the New Moon Perigee Syzygy, worldwide volcanism has picked up significantly during the past few days. Nearly 20 volcanoes widely scattered around the world have been exhaling ash nearly every day since November 7th.. A few of these are spilling lava in fits and starts in ways similar to Etna. Etna, Kilauea, and Rabaul are still active with the first two spilling lava continuously as they have for a few weeks now. No one knows if and when they will quiet down. Montserrat is actively growing a new dome. The Southwest Volcano Centre reports 43 volcanoes on the alert status list (up two from last week), 5 volcanoes on the restless list (same as last report), and 27 on the active eruption list (up three from weeks ago). Hood remains completely quiescent and El Popo
gave us a five puff day today, which suggests that volcanic activity is already ebbing.
Centrapred reports for OCTOBER 23 (16:00 GMT) that "In the last 24 hours there were 5
low intensity exhalations accompanied by steam and gas. The other monitored parameters
remain without important changes. In the morning we can observe the volcano with a steam
and gas emission" AG INDUSTRY WATCH Because of the high load of stress which the current peak in the sunspots have placed on the Ag industry, we alert on the changing scene in agriculture and how these are likely to effect the broader economy.
REPEAT FROM PREVIOUS WEEKS: Subscribers have sent me a large number of reports from the internet from various governments or other institutions around the world which tell of the terrible consequences of this years weather (floods and drought) on agricultural crops. Keep the reports coming in. It will take some serious time to wade through them but continue to send references in. It is highly important and no one person will find the diversity of info which your are sending, so I am going to be able to put together a fairly penetrating summary. I will wait until November as I we may be able to "call" the sunspot cycle towards the end of the month, perhaps somewhat sooner, so that the assessment will be even more comprehensive. GEO-POLITICAL WATCH How the sunspots are likely to most effect human affairs during the weeks and months ahead? SIGN OF THE TIMES: Ken Lay, just a good ole boy Texan, the Presiding Officer of the rape of California Consumers, otherwise known as Enron, is still scott free with his crooked billions while the Bush administration harasses a liberal democrat funder, Marsha Stewart, for alleged but unprovable "insider trading" of a minor amount of stock. Ah, but it is really funny, Mr. Jones, how history can turn things upside down and inside out before your very eyes. Just when the right wingnuts thought they had it all figured out on the drive to Baghdad and could answer that strange looking street kid with the guitar asking that rude question suddenly, the Bush Administration has walked into an incredible historical trap. It is one thing to loathe your enemy but this hatred may serve as a blemish in ones vision, obscuring the realities and causing one to underestimate ones enemy. On this shoal, the Bush Administration may begin to flounder. So Damned Insane is indeed easy to hate and is hated by Americans as the quintessence of the arch-villain. But this does not make Sadam Hussein stupid and stupid he is not. He has probably learned more in the past 12 years than anyone in the West cares to admit. PREDICTION: This very week is the historical peak of the Bush Administrations international fortunes and the high tide of right wing arrogance. After weeks and months of trying to build a case and momentum to mount a unilateral invasion of Iraq, the right wingnuts of the Bush entourage failed to convince 64% of Americans to go it alone without full U.N. formal participation. Despite months of intensive propagrandizing, most European nations remain tepid on military action in Iraq, failing to see that anything new has happened in four years. The British public makes itself clear that it is opposed to British involvement and most recently the Italians marched 400,000 strong to oppose war with Iraq to show the depth and breadth of anti-war feelings in Europe. Meanwhile the French and Russians determined to hold Bush back from the brink of American unilateralism, which would effectively destroy the U.N. as a moral force for at least a generation, even as Amerian unilateralism betrayed the League of Nations. The French and Russians succeeded in binding Bush in a Security Council Resolution which the entire world regards as mandating the inspections which the Americans are demanding and which also require U.N. supervision of all aspects of inspection AND enforcement. This is the rather explicit premise of the U.N. Charter, which requires all states, including the U.S., to act in concert in the application of international force. While the Bush Administration saves face for right wingnut consumption in the U.S. by claiming that it can act alone if need be to lead some ersatz coalition, the Europeans have created the diplomatic scene through the U.N. for neutralizing the worst jingoistic tendencies in American thinking, giving thusly a huge victory and sigh of relief to practically everyone outside the U.S. who would prefer the rule of international law over the use of force. Meanwhile right wingnuts in American media and government circles are escalating their shrill expectations of imminent invasion and pressing onward with amazing stupidity and rude bellicose notions that Sadam is obviously guilty guilty guilty and the U.S. must inevitably disarm him by invading Iraq and placing several million Iraqis in harms way without a shred of evidence and with no thought that in fact no weapons of mass destruction may be found in Iraq. With the U.S. thus completely pre-occupied by Iraq and various right wingnut fantasies of using Republican domination of the U.S. Congress to continue to dismantle 80 years of progressive legistation, the U.S. continues to ignore the Palestinian issues which it promised to address and deal with last March. The U.S. even welches on its promises to help set up an international conference this fall to begin creation of a Palestinian State. Instead, Israel continues to destroy all Palestinian governance forms, turning several million Palestinians into prisoners inside concrete canyons, unable to do much of anything except receive whatever charity happens to be sent to them. Naturally the Pentagon continues it massive build ups into the Gulf region and escalates all of its activity many fold in preparation for a war in Iraq. Here is the trap. The Americans are barely conscious of most of this but it is detailed news and gossip in every street of the Middle East. All this of course makes true the most radical claims and predictions by the various anti-American factions in both the Middle East and Europe. To a T, the Americans performed as expected. The crème de la crème for the pudding is the increasing bellicosity from right wingnut thinktank instant expert phonies which is being spoon-fed into the American Mass Media for broadcast around the world. For anyone anywhere outside of North America, the Americans appear to be escalating old-fashioned war propaganda in preparation for an invasion which they alone believe is imminent. But this propaganda is so threadbare, so obviously the product of hacks with a rather defective grasp of facts and logic, it must embarrass even those elements of the right wing who can still think without slogans. For everyone else it appears as it appears, increasingly ugly slander by rude people. This hate-pudding is thus easily spun outside North America into a rather grim image of the Americans as arrogant, cocksure ignoramuses who are grossly unfair and unjust in their treatment of the Arab peoples. After Sadams Parliament (nominally the voice of the people) has roundly rejected the UN demands, the entire Arab people through the Arab League has recommended that Sadam accept the mandate. This Sadam has "graciously" accepted today in his typically bombastic style, essentially claiming that the U.S. is an ignorant idiot more interested in war than the truth. Now the arms inspection teams go in and fan out through the country. As the weeks go by, the right wingnuts and American officials repeat their bellicose rhetoric and continue to accuse many elements in the Arab world of complicity or connections to various forms of terrorism. Every step of the way is made tendentious by American demands, to which Iraq gently complies . But the Americans cannot invade because one very stubborn Swede, Hans Blix, the head of the U.N. Inspections Team, has his people scattered the length and the bredth of the land. In his hands, virtually alone, the entire historical moment rests. But no right wingnut is he. And the arms inspectors search, and search, and search, and search and find nothing except ambiguities, perhaps some old junked SCUD missile sections which are in process of being cut up for reworking into steel ingots, certainly they find standard fermentators which could grow anthrax but which currently are being used to culture yeasts for wine making and bread, and various chemicals which are used to make plastics, paints, and even to make some noxious "weapons of mass destruction", but none such per se. Meanwhile Sadam Hussein begins to laugh .. for he has made George W. Bush and the Americans at the height of their power to appear to be fools, just quacks with hightech mumbo-jumble. And he laughs some more as the right wingnuts make increasingly desperate noises about the need to remove him from power. Meanwhile everyone in Syria is keeping entirely silent about the various things which certain groups in Syria have inherited from across the border in Iraq, even as Syria begins to press the Europeans along about February 2003 for ending the sanctions against Iraq. By the middle of next year, the Bush Administration finally realizes it has been entrapped and made the fool. Under intense pressure from the Arab League, which the U.S. and Britain have successfully polarized against themselves, the U.N. votes to end the embargo. But the U.S. vetoes the resolution, recreating the same isolation it has with Cuba. The rest of the world forgets the sanctions and the war on terrorism faces increasing difficulties in finding suitable cooperation. Meanwhile, the spotlight returns to the Palestinian issues, only now the U.S. and Israel have been diplomatically surrounded and the Arab world presses its case far more successfully in Europe and Asia that it is now clear that the main problem is not Arafat nor terrorists, it is the United States of America. Suddenly, the story is believed by a lot more people in a lot more countries. The tide begins to turn against the Americans and the Jews. AS PREVIOUSLY STATED: As predicted as early as June here, the Bush drive to war with Iraq has destroyed the focus on the war with terrorism and completely aborted any efforts to create peace in Palestine. International reactions have mounted and the U.S. is still creating a downward spiral of increasing isolation. Those it has polarized are showing highly adept ability to maneuver and isolate the U.S. into losing dead ends. Currently it is likely that the economy is dipping seriously into recession AND THERE IS NO SIGN OF RELIEF with a great many other large economies in the world reeling around in virtual insolvency. The remaining wild card cannot be predicted: Osama Bin Laden. Where and why and how he will strike is hugely obscure, which is the only way he plays. But his current wave of strategy is now apparent in the main. After provoking a much greater destructive response than he was figuring on, his forces have regrouped, resurfaced, and have demonstrated their ability to coordinate their activity on a worldwide basis. His recent release of another audio tape is aimed almost entirely at Middle Eastern and European audiences in the beginning of a major offensive to isolate the U.S. and Israel from the opinion of the world. He signals the beginning of another wave of attacks, vowing to pull the West into the same misery in which the Palestinians live. It is doubtful that Bin Laden understands the western mind well enough to isolate the U.S. in the way he would like, but it is clear he does not need to understand much of it to isolate the U.S. from increasing portions of the Arab Nations. The American right wingnuts who, having inherited the lunacies and lying habits of the John Birch society, who now reside noisily along the Potomac and see evil conspiracies under every rock, are his Heaven sent allies . All Bin Laden has to do is continue to provoke them and create chaos of confusion and fear (what he claims is the misery of the Palestinian people) and the American right wingnuts are almost certain to react in ways which continue to strengthen his appeal throughout the Middle East. The Arab League had in exactly right in March. Forget Iraq, they said, nothing much going on there, they said, and no one has been able to prove different, even the CIA concluded much the same thing. Solve the problem in Palestine, the Arab League said in March. If you end the conflict there, the Arab League told us in no uncertain terms, you will begin to dry up the appeal of terrorism and the cells will gradually disappear out of the Middle East. Through their leadership, the American people have played the old two-face game on that issue. Promise the moon and skip town. The Americans have ended up lying to them . And now many are beginning to say to them that all the Americans want, really, is control of more of their oil Never forget that. This two-faced jig is the historical junction point. I truly believe that the Middle East issues can be resolved in both the short term and the long term by almost entirely peaceful means, even if an occasional terrorist outrage demands a violent response. But I am truly afraid that the hubris of the dominant class in America is so pugnacious that a considerable fall is more likely the outcome. After all, it is the only governing class in the industrial world which does not guarantee equalized health standards for the entire nation, it administers a economy which has reduced the net wages for its bottom half even while the net wages in most of Europe has risen each year, and then systematically denies it, and virtually alone in the civilized world, the American governing class will not act to create policy and administration which prevents common bullies from beating up the "sissy" kids in their schools. It prefers instead the cult of competition, football games and fames which are entirely meaningless, and most of all it prefers to manipulate votes and elections with "negative attack adds" which nearly all informed professional analysts admit serve only to distort, prevaricate, and confuse the voters. What can you really expect from such a governing class, except more incompetence and an inevitable fall . I know these truths are going to be hard for many subscribers, but this really is what is in front of you.
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