Conditions range from strange or freaky to extremely dangerous. Nothing is normal this July.

POLAR MOTION: Getting more out of pattern

The motion of the pole is showing increasing signs of "disturbance". The pattern is still small but it seems to echo and magnify a distinct tendency of the spiral cycles of the wobble to "flatten" while the pole moves through one quadrant of the Earth (between Greenwich Meridian and Long. West 90) This "disturbance" is larger than reported last week and it seems to be closing up the spiral, tightening up the size rather than continue to expand it. If so, this may be signaling that the current cycle of Chandler’s Wobble is ending about a year early. Or, it may be signaling that the entire track of Chandler’s Wobble is rapidly shifting location to parts unknown at the moment. Or it may still just be a random fluctuation based on peculiarities of the combination of lunar and solar cycles accentuated by the heavy flow of ionic solar wind which is buffeting the earth.

It seems more than a random fluctuation if you look at the spirals of the last several years. Below is a URL to a pix of the wobble from 1996 to this day. The end of the spiral on the top is January 1996. The end of the spiral on the bottom is July 16, 2002. You can examine this new disturbance in the attached file or by clicking on this URL (watch out for the word-wrap which may break this into two lines; if so you must make sure the browser has the second line pasted onto the end of the first line).

http://www.michaelmandeville.com/earthmonitor/polarmotion/plots/wobble_july16_2002.gif

Another way to see it the motion of the pole and the current "out of pattern" behavior is to watch the X and Y axis graphs at the following URL (below this paragraph). The "X" Axis graph shows that the wave pattern is currently rounding off and the current "wave" will have a smaller peak than the last one. If true, this is VERY STRANGE. I don’t think the wobble has ever done that but I will have to look through all the cycles of the wobble in greater detail to be certain. Here is the X Axis Chart.

http://www.michaelmandeville.com/earthmonitor/topten_monitor.htm

Still too early to be conclusive about it, but if this pattern persists for another month we will be able to say that a fundamental alteration has occurred in Chandler’s Wobble, probably having commenced in December 1998 when the first major "flattening" of the spiral shape of the wobble could be observed.

SOLAR SUNSPOTS AND WEATHER: Going UP and UP – a sizzling 185

The daily sunspot count dropped to a low of about 95 on July 12 and has been climbing like a rocket ship ever since. The count was 205 as of the 15^th but is now at 185 as of July 17, 2002. The solar flux has climbed from a flat line of 135 up to almost 160. This high flux count suggests that the sunspots will not go down below 100 for another two weeks or so. Doubtless, the peak of Solar Cycle 23 is not over and the extremely high level of ionic energy from the Sun is impacting everything on the Earth, from climate and rainfall to the way humans think, react, and emote..

This upswell in the sunspot counts may be related to Venus now being on the same side of the Sun as the Earth. It is most likely drawing its "train" of sunspots into visibility and adding to those which are made visible because they have been entrained by the electromagnetic pull of the Earth. I say "MAY" because I do not know for certain but I cannot think of any other reason for this sudden rise again in the sunspot count.

As can be seen on current images of the sunspots and coronal holes, the most active portion of the Sun which we can currently see is facing Venus. As Venus approaches closer and closer to the Earth during the next 15 weeks or so, this activity will ramp up the activity which Earth is getting from the Sun. Expect the Oak Tree Memo predictions to stand, with a fairly good probability that there will be higher than the "guesstimated" levels of energy. It may be, though completely unpredictable, that Solar Cycle 23 will peak again and reach its highest count for this 11 year cycle during October and November 2002.

Solar activity in general is currently quite high and tempestuous. The huge prominence last week was spectacular but more flares and even an X-class explosion about two days ago has been churning the solar atmosphere. Here is what NASA reported about just one sunspot yesterday on July 16, 2002

"A remarkable sunspot is crossing the face of the Sun. The large active region stretches 15 Earth-diameters from end-to-end and poses a threat for powerful flares. Indeed, on July 15th, twisted magnetic fields above the spot erupted. The explosion sparked an X-class solar flare and hurled a coronal mass ejection into space. As a result, sky watchers on Earth might spot auroras on Tuesday or Wednesday night. Visit spaceweather.com for more information and updates."

The fluxgate at the U. of Alaska apparently was off line for much of the past 48 hours. The flares either burned out the system or somebody pulled the plug. On either side of the burn out void, the magnetic readings of the Earth’s atmosphere fluctuate enough to show that the Earth is sailing through a brisk, choppy solar sea.

WEATHER DROUGHT/FLOOD WATCH – Scattered Relief in Southwest, most of West still Bakes

NASA reports that solar wind gusts from another huge coronal hole could strike Earth's magnetic field as early as July 20. This will make the solar sea even more choppy, bringing huge "swells" which could see sudden flares and explosions which will strike like tornadoes. Expect considerable chaos in all weather patterns. Floods may be a major issue practically anywhere in the Mississippi System and still yet in eastern Texas.

Fortunately a rare weather pattern is impacting the Southwestern U.S. In an extremely rare standoff, Pacific Marine Air is butting heads with Caribbean Air directly over the Mogollon Rim and the Four Corner’s area. This pattern has stabilized and the Caribbean is now supplying the moist thunderheads which are serving up the monsoon rains over Arizona, New Mexico and the southern Rockies. Last night, this monsoon dumped well over an inch along portions of the Mogollon Rim, such as Payson, Arizona. and one-inch-in-one-hour rainfall in Phoenix Arizona in a squall so tempestuous that hangers and aircraft at the main Phoenix Airport were damaged as if a tornado had struck.

Fortunately this rain helped finish off the Rim fires and has reduced slightly the fire risk in the Ponderosa Pine strands. In a drive by though portions of the Rim yesterday, I saw that some of the Oak are going to make it if they get just a modicum of rainfall during the next several months. It is still depressing to see how many are standing barren as if they had all croaked in a massive die-off . I still hope there is still some life in their roots waiting for this moisture to revive them.

Unfortunately, the rain so far has been hit and miss and very spotty. We need a lot more activity to enable the native flora and fauna to survive.

If the stand-off between the air masses continue it will be a good thing for the Southwest. I don’t think it will help most of Nevada, Utah, Oregon, or the northern half of Colorado. Those areas need the Jet Stream coming in over about Eureka California and heading due East over the Rockies in Wyoming. But currently the Jet Stream is mainly over Alaska, far to high to help. Solar activity is likely to keep the Jet Stream this far north.

Accordingly, consider Oregon, Northern California, Nevada, Utah, Wyoming, and Colorado the most threatened areas with no positive prospects at current.

DROUGHT WATCH WORLDWIDE – Getting Very Dangerous

The famine issue is now finally beginning to loom much larger. Conditions are catching up with us. While Canadian government officials are embarking on a campaign to pay their farmers $6 BILLION not to grow wheat this year, the following report shows us how desperate the situation is becoming in Africa. Not far behind will be India and Pakistan.

U.N.. foresees 300,000 deaths in Southern African because of hunger

Wed Jul 10,11:47 AM ET

By ALEXANDER G. HIGGINS, Associated Press Writer

GENEVA - Up to 300,000 people in Southern Africa could die over the next six months as a result of severe food shortages following two years of drought, the U.N. health agency said Wednesday. "There is now a severe humanitarian crisis," said Dr. David Nabarro, a senior official of the World Health Organization ( news - web sites).

The United Nations ( news - web sites) earlier this month appealed for dlrs 507 million to buy food for the region, but Nabarro said food on its own is not enough to ensure survival. "We have to also address the urgent health care needs of the population," he said. Drinking water, medicine and vaccines are also needed.

WHO officials expect to issue an appeal for around dlrs 19 million to improve health care in the region.

Nabarro said up to 60 million people are in the hardest-hit area, which includes Malawi, Zambia, Lesotho, Zimbabwe, Swaziland and Mozambique. Of those about 12 million are severely affected by the food shortages, he said. "And we expect that number to increase over the next few months." "Our calculations suggest that the crisis in this region could result in up to 300,000 'excess deaths' during the next six months," he said. "This is a conservative estimate." The deaths would likely result mainly from diseases because people would be malnourished and immunity levels would have dropped, he said.

"We're seeing a continuing rise in tuberculosis and acute chest infections," Nabarro said. Health workers have found increased mortality rates in all population groups, he said. Women have begun showing an increased risk of dying as a result of problems during pregnancy. Nils Kastberg of UNICEF ( news - web sites) said many of those at risk are children under the age of 5.Nabarro said health problems have worsened in part because of a reduction in the number of medical workers. Some of them left the region because of difficult working conditions. The number also has declined because they have been infected by the AIDS ( news - web sites) virus that is prevalent in the region, he said.

On July 15, the BBC reported what the drought conditions are doing in Algeria. You haven’t heard about either the U.N. report or this news from Algeria, at least not in the major American mass media, have you?

Algerians riot over water shortages. Algiers The country has suffered years of chronic drought. Algerians protesting against water shortages have rioted in the eastern coastal town of El Arrouch, setting fire to buildings and vehicles. Several hundred people, complaining of the nine-month water shortage, were involved in the rampage. Algeria has a chronic water shortage problem, caused by years of drought and an inefficient supply system. El Arrouch lies near the major port of Skikda around 310 miles (500km) east of the capital, Algiers.

Angry civilians attacked and set fire to the town hall, the police station and a number of vehicles, and smashed the windows of the water company. They also blocked the main highway to Constantine, the country's biggest city in the east. Riot police have dispersed the crowds with tear gas, but the atmosphere is reported to be still tense. Algeria has too few reservoirs to serve its population and many of those are virtually empty, producing only muddy, yellow water.

Most of the reservoirs serving the capital have completely dried up, meaning Algeria is currently being served only by specially-dug boreholes. Now, residents of the country's capital get water at best one day out of three. Water shortage is only one of several critical social problems Algerians face at the moment, along with electricity cuts and a lack of social housing. And the problems look set to continue over the summer.

EL NINO – THE VORTEX RULES

Pacific Equatorial water is now cooling rapidly into the normal temperature range, although about two months behind last year’s schedule. Doubtless, MY PREDICTION OF NO EL NINO WINS. Some of the weathermen are now beginning to admit that there will be no El Nino this year.

OTHER-WORLDLY WATCH – U.S. Scientists Remain Out To Lunch

Now here is what a few climatologists have to say about the El Nino predictions made by the atmospheric/ocean current heat budget theoreticians. As I read this Reuter’s article, I have to pinch myself to see if I am still on Earth. I am not certain what planet they are on, but I AM certain it is not this one. These guys have not a clue. Somebody should sign them up to the Earth Changes Bulletin.

El Nino Weakened by North Pacific Weather System

Fri Jul 12, 9:54 AM ET

By Rene Pastor

NEW YORK (Reuters) - A North Pacific weather system appears to have blunted formation of a strong 2002 El Nino, which in 1998 was blamed for catastrophic drought and rampant flooding in the Asia-Pacific rim, forecasters said Friday. Scott Yuknis, senior meteorologist at Minneapolis-based Meteorlogix, told Reuters that creation of the El Nino -- an abnormal warming of waters in the equatorial Pacific which spawned devastation in 1997-1998 and 1982-1983 -- has been hindered by changes in the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO).

The PDO causes changes in water temperatures in the northern Pacific Ocean every 30 years and may impact long-term climatic patterns, particularly over North America, over the next two decades. "I think the idea of strong El Ninos is something we won't see for many years to come," Yuknis said, adding it is "extremely difficult" for the weather anomaly to bloom due to the effect of the PDO.

The PDO has been in a negative phase since 1998 and that usually means a colder bias during winter for North America. The northwestern part of the Pacific Ocean is warmer than usual while the southeastern portion is colder than usual. The situation is reversed when it goes into a positive phase. Colder waters in the southeastern half of the northern Pacific ocean would rob a nascent El Nino of the warm water it needs to wreak havoc over global weather patterns, according to forecasters.

On Thursday, the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) announced the official return of a mild, weak El Nino. El Nino, literally 'boy child' in Spanish, was named after the Christ Child by Latin American anchovy fishermen in the 19th century, who first noticed that it usually appeared around Christmas.

Mark Russo, a forecaster at Salomon Smith Barney in Chicago, said the PDO has effectively suppressed El Nino. "That is certainly the case," he said, adding other factors will play a more dominant role in determining weather conditions in North America this year.

The forecasters said people in North America who got used to associating El Nino with mild winters may be in for a surprise this year. "I don't think the approaching El Nino will produce a mild winter," said Yuknis, adding that people in the Northeastern United States would be well advised not to plan on cheaper heating oil bills.

He said other factors such as the level of snow on the ground or the amount of soil moisture present toward the end of the year may be more important in determining the severity of the winter. "El Nino will not be a driving force for weather patterns" in the country," said Russo.

Forecasters feel it is more difficult to gauge the impact of El Nino in countries around the Asia-Pacific rim which suffered the most in 1997/98. The anomaly caused searing drought in countries, including Indonesia and the Philippines, while spawning rampant floods in Ecuador. Chile was hit last month by its worst storms in a century. Russo said that instead of the wide swathes of drought in Asia, the weak El Nino may only produce "some areas of dryness rather than extreme dryness." Yuknis warned that this version of the feared anomaly may well have a "very limited impact on climate."

VOLCANO WATCH: El Popo’s Activity Down

Only five minor emissions during the past 24 hours at El Popo, down from last week.. Kilauea continues its lava flows and in general conditions are about the same as last week, perhaps slightly muted like El Popo. The Southwestern Volcano Lab reports 8 restless volcanoes, 31 volcanoes on the alert list, and 17 continuing eruptions.

EARTHQUAKES – Down, no other trend apparent

Not much news of interest. There was another high latitude quake on Jan Mayan Island, which is a little North of Iceland and very similar to it Worldwide quake activity was muted, failed to meet Berkland’s expectations, and all action was widely scattered. Hood was not active seismically this past week so it would seem that the pre-ignition process is at least temporarily halted. However, the chart numbers have been altered and the database of quakes for the area does not match the entries which were on the system a week ago. Something fishy in that department. Maybe the database server there is having a bad hair day. For California/Nevada, the seven day running total for all quakes above 1.0 mag. was 300, a tad bit on the high side. The largest quake struck near the Long Valley Cauldera, but quake activity directly in that volcanic field has been at the level of only one micro-event per day.

GEO-POLITICAL – Ugly, getting uglier.

As can be seen from the other fronts, pressures are building to the bursting levels in many areas of the world. People will be impelled to act in new ways in an energetic condition (extreme solar ionization) which produces greater emotional extremes and greater aggressiveness in reaction patterns. Peace is increasingly fragile. The collapse of confidence is accelerating and Bush’s sound bites are now beginning to generate increasing suspicion and hostility. His attempts to jawbone spontaneously are beginning to be seen as empty platitudes by wider and wider international circles. The "straws" about invading Iraq which the Bush administration is now floating not so discretely for feedback from various elite circles is a tragic mistake. The strawmen are backfiring, generating increasing international hostility about American assertiveness and preoccupation with issues which are far removed from the overwhelming environmental and economic disasters which have befallen major areas of the world.