EarthMonitor

Earth Changes Bulletin Update As Of December 4, 2002

You have heard of the Weather Report? Here exclusively is this week’s "Earth Report" - a short review of the "big picture" about how the dynamic changes in the Sun and the Earth are effecting our lives more and more intensely, with the latest prognostications and predictions for weathermen, farmers, investors, businessmen, and every man

All is quieting in the Earth, slowly, ever so slowly, the dramatic activities and chaotic patterns are winding down back into more normal patterns. But among humans, geo-political conditions continue to worsen as the American Right Wing asserts more and more of its agenda against the spineless careerism of the nominally called "centrist" Democrats and the nerdish isolation of much of the left. As the right wing assumes ascendancy, reactions around the world are deepening and setting in motion many active forces of polarization. This first decade of century 21 may come to haunt the Americans for far longer than Vietnam haunted them.

________________________________________________________________________

Program Thesis: What are we trying to do with the Earth Changes Bulletin?

Most news media do not handle technical and scientific subjects like geology and earth sciences very well. They don't understand the causes and effects of activities in the Sun and Earth. Accordingly, they often do not understand if, when, how, why to report earthquakes, volcanic activity, global warming effects The treatment often sounds absent-minded, poorly qualified, and frequently contains various technical errors. Seldom is the treatment entertaining and genuinely educational.

Based on new scientific principles which have emerged during the past thirty years, many of the dynamic activities of the Sun and Earth can be linked together to see how a range of effects are linked together. This makes it possible to paint "the big picture" into a perspective which explains many diverse events and processes, especially climate and weather patterns such as global warming and El Nino. From the "big picture", long range predictions can be made for weeks and even months ahead.

The result is sophisticated cutting-edge information which is objective, balanced, astute, relevant, and can be easily seen and appreciated by lay audiences. The perspective is generally global, seldom parochial.

________________________________________________________________________

POLAR MOTION

What is happening to the motion of the Earth.

Steady as she goes. As reported for the past few months, the current track of Chandler’s Wobble (the observed locations of the spin axis at the North Pole) continues to show an acceleration in the shifting of the average location of the spin axis. The recent acceleration may be in the approximate range of 6.5%. FOR A DESCRIPTION OF THIS DISPLACEMENT, SEE THE EARTH CHANGES BULLETIN OF NOVEMBER 13, 2002.

SUNSPOTS

The events in the solar atmosphere which impact weather and climate patterns, the magnetic field and auroras, including forecasts for the week, month, and year ahead.

Solar Flux Index remains amazingly buoyant the past two weeks between 145 and 155, indicating a strong stable platform of energy to feed high counts of sunspots. The sunspot count the past ten days has oscillated sharply three times between 95 and 155, with a very short periodicity of about three days. The reason for this oscillation, like the previously reported oscillations, is unknown.

Today’s sunspot count is at about 135 and NASA shows a muted Sun, with relatively small chance of major activity for the next 48 hours. Two coronal holes in the sun’s atmosphere may increase the solar wind beginning on December 7^th.

Today’s Solar Wind Speed is a rapid 422.4 km/s with a fairly high density of 4.9 protons/cm³. This is activity shows a continuation in the robust energy output of the is Solar Cycle 23 and seems to support the notion that this high in this Solar Sunspot Cycle will not be any shorter in length than previous cycles. But this strong wind has not perturbed the Earth’s atmosphere. The U of Alaska Fluxgate shows only minor magnetic disturbances in the Earth’s atmosphere for the past few days

As reported two weeks ago, my hunch is that the Solar Flux Index will now fairly progressively sag down but not very rapidly. This has certainly been true for the last two weeks. I still believe that during the next several months solar activity will remain muted below the levels of the past two months while showing a very slow decline. Accordingly, in line with previous predications and warnings made here, it is likely that Solar Cycle 23 will not fall of its peak with a count under 100 until sometime in 2003, perhaps in January (at the earliest) or in March (probably at the latest). BUT - how long it will take to bring the monthly average count below 100 is anyone’s guess. There is no real sunspot average cycle. They all vary quite widely and so the average is definitely an illusion.

To follow these numbers, view the Solar Cycle 23 Chart at

http://www.michaelmandeville.com/earthmonitor/topten_monitor.htm

GLOBAL DROUGHT AND FLOOD WATCH

Stories and assessments about drought and flood conditions around the world; global information which provides the ability to assess the impacts to agriculture and the natural environment.

As reported during the previous weeks, Winter is setting in early with great gusto in huge storms fronts. This pattern of recurring huge storm fronts and extensive precipitation is likely to continue through the end of January. How long this pattern will continue is directly connected with the sunspot count and the stability of the El Nino water on the equator. If the warm water patches begin to dissipate during the next few weeks while the sunspot count continues to decline, the weather should begin to become mild for an early Spring.

AS PREVIOUSLY REPORTED: Anything could happen to the weather this Winter and definitely expect chaos and some extremes to emerge in the weather suddenly fairly shortly after a major solar flare or appearance of a new coronal hole. But in the main, vis a vis solar activity, look now in the main for a long slow gradual return to more normal weather patterns.

EL NINO WATCH: The El Nino syndrome along the equator appears to have reached its maximum. As reported in previous weeks, there has been a sudden upsurge in warm water (above average in the range of 8 degrees F.) standing in a narrow belt along a very wide expanse of the Equator in the Pacific. It is likely that this upsurge is now at maximum and will begin to decline through the remainder of December. There may indeed be El Nino Weather Syndrome set in this coming winter and spring but it may weaken almost before it is even noticed. Then again, because and especially because I have called this one incorrectly for most of the year, the damn thing may come on even stronger during the next few months.

EARTHQUAKES

Around the world to see the current and potential patterns of seismic activity, with coverage of the windows of danger.

After a relatively high frequency of quaking during the week prior to this past one, seismic activity (for 3.0 plus quakes) has muted down into relatively low frequency and low magnitudes that are typical during the post Full Moon syzygy period. Only seven quakes over 3.0 in magnitude were reported for yesterday and none of them were over 5.7 in magnitude. Accordingly, this New Moon Syzygy, which we are dead in the middle of today, may be pretty uneventful.

As warned during the last week two weeks on Alex Merklinger’s show, the frequency of quake activity was high on the Full Moon and through Thanksgiving and for a couple of days thereafter, most especially in Alaska. But the magnitude of activity remained modest, typically quakes were in the range of 3.5 to 5, there was little or no activity over 5.9 during the past seven days (one database shows a 6.8 quake in the South Seas).

The expected increase of modest sized quakes in California and the Pacific Northwest never occurred but Alaska took up the slack for the first couple of days just after last Wednesday. After that, the pattern is fairly random, seismic activity shaking in modest numbers in all the most active zones around the planet. During the past two days, the quake activity focused especially in and around Japan where six or seven quakes in the 4 to 5 range struck.

Apparently the dangers of large quakes is over for a period of time. This "window" of large quakes during the past sixty days seems to have closed. I personally do not expect to see any more major quake activity until January about two weeks after the Earth’s Perihelion (closest approach to the Sun). About that time of year, a major quake sometimes strikes, typically in the Western half of the Pacific Ring of Fire.

The USGS chart (such charts show all quakes 1.0 and above) for Long Valley Cauldera (Area) shows 25 small quakes for the past week, typically in the range of 1.0 in magnitude while the USGS Chart of Yellowstone Cauldera Area shows 11 small quakes during the last week. This level of activity is down substantially from previous weeks and would seem to indicate that volcanic activity is now muting.

The USGS chart for California shows 318 quakes for the past seven days, about the same level of activity as during the last three weeks and the USGS Chart for the Pacific Northwest reveals a slight increase of activity with 44 micro quakes (two week sum) widely scattered through the Cascades and Eastern Washington.

VOLCANOES

Around the world with the most interesting and relevant volcano stories; briefs on the likely eruptions as well as coverage of on-going activity.

Hood remains completely quiescent but El Popo gave us an 8 puff day today, only down one from two weeks ago. Centrapred reports for December 4 (16:00 GMT) that "In the last 24 hours there were 8 low to moderate intensity exhalations accompanied by steam and gas. At 10:04 h (local) it was detected a volcanotectonic microearthquake M = 2 located at 6.4 km deep below the crater. The other monitored parameters remain without important changes."

The Southwest Volcano Centre reports 46 volcanoes on the alert status list (same as November 20), 6 volcanoes on the restless list (down two from November 20), and 29 on the active eruption list (same as during the past two weeks). Since very few of the active eruption items have been updated during the past week, it would seem that overall activity is down, even Kilauea has decreased its output.

AG INDUSTRY WATCH

Because of the high load of stress which the current peak in the sunspots have placed on the Ag industry, we alert on the changing scene in agriculture and how these are likely to effect the broader economy.

This past week I have had the happy joy to travel along the great Mogollon Rim to Snowflake in Eastern Central Arizona and then westward along the Rim to Sedona and then up to the rim of the Grand Canyon. This has given me the opportunity to quickly survey vast tracks of the eco systems of the Southwest at various altitudes. The company and Thanksgiving I shared with many friends was wonderful but the stories I heard from the trees was not so happy.

The fire damage from the Rim Fires this past August are awesomely great to vast tracks of Ponderosa and Pinion Pine. A great many trees in many areas died simply from exposure to hot toxic smoke produced by the burning of trees at lower elevations. But this fire damage is the least of the drought induced damage. No one yet has put together the complete story in Arizona but it is THE story of the year for this area and the impact of the drought will be experienced for several generations.

Since many strands of tall Ponderosa, typically 400 years old, have completely succumbed this year, it is safe to say that in those areas this year was the worst drought in 400 years.

The damage in some tracks (those ranges which luckily got more water than other ranges) is minimal and is unnoticeable, such as in the Flagstaff area South of the San Francisco Peaks, but generally the kill rate is at least 5% and goes up to 50%.

In some areas, such as on the North side of the San Francisco Peaks, the Ponderosa faired reasonably well with low die rates but the Pinion Pine die-off at 6000-7000 feet is nearly 100%. There are tens of thousands of acres of dead Pinion Pines between Flagstaff and the Grand Canyon to complement the Ponderosa which were burned in an extensive fire zone just North of the San Francisco Peaks.

In general, the Pinion Pines seemed to fare the worst as well in many other zones. I passed through many other areas where nearly all the Pinion had died. Even some of the Juniper, which are hardy enough to survive a tour through hell, occasionally succumbed in small numbers here and there.

Ironically, the Oak are much hardier than I supposed and their die-off seems to be minimal, but we won’t know for sure about all of them until next summer.

This sort of damage extends across a belt of two hundred miles across central Mexico and then even into New Mexico, according to eye witness reports I have been given. Since the elevations and eco systems vary so widely and so radically throughout central Arizona it is very difficult to draw any summary conclusions about the count of the damage based on simple counting and projections. On a practical level, conditions on nearly every 1 square mile section of land are somewhat unique and thus the ecology of each section of land reacted somewhat differently.

The only thing which is obvious is that the damage is severe and will impact the general ecology of the state, all of its wildlife, for a long time to come.

REPEAT FROM PREVIOUS WEEKS: Subscribers have sent me a large number of reports from the internet from various governments or other institutions around the world which tell of the terrible consequences of this year’s weather (floods and drought) on agricultural crops. Keep the reports coming in. It will take some serious time to wade through them but continue to send references in. It is highly important and no one person will find the diversity of info which your are sending, so I am going to be able to put together a fairly penetrating summary. I will wait until just after Thanksgiving as we may be able to "call" the sunspot cycle towards the end of the month, perhaps somewhat sooner, so that the assessment will be even more comprehensive.

GEO-POLITICAL WATCH

How the sunspots are likely to most effect human affairs during the weeks and months ahead?

SIGN OF THE TIMES: Ken Lay, just a good ole boy Texan, the Presiding Officer of the rape of California Consumers, otherwise known as Enron, is still scott free with his crooked billions while the Bush administration harasses a liberal democrat funder, Marsha Stewart, for alleged but unprovable "insider trading" of a minor amount of stock.

NEW HINT: Guess what corporate jets were used to ferry the Bush campaign officials and lawyers around during the recounting of the ballots in Florida and the petitioning of the courts to stop the recounts? Enron’s.

AS PREDICTED: Sadam Hussein’s regime has acted to cooperate with the United Nations.

ALSO AS PREDICTED: The American right wing is suddenly beginning to realize that the Europeans have taken charge of the situation in Iraq and have placed the U.N. arms inspectors between American military forces and the people of Iraq.

Now they are inventing new rationales for PRESUMING that the U.N. cannot do the job, or will do it wrong, or, that no inspections can possibly work. Nobody in Washington DC in the administration appears to want to calmly explain or prove anything. All they appear to be doing, through people like Rumsfield, Rice, and many many others, is feeding the public the notion that WE, the Grave and Great Leaders of the entire Free World, can PRESUME whatever we want, because, WE are the King of the Hill.

I can’t believe they think they can get away with this. I wonder how long this is going to go on?

Scarcely reported in American TV media, the most important story of the past two weeks has been the intensive non-American diplomatic activity in Europe and Asia, especially on the part of Russia and China. Both nations have just signed accords calling for a multi-polar world. This is a polite way of saying thanks but no thanks to a world which is dominated by one power, the U.S. Russia is calling on China and India to join with it in joint support of anti-terrorism but with a foreign policy which is independent of the increasingly churlish, right wing slant of American foreign policy. So far China has signed up for the Russian initiative. India may not be far behind.

DÉJÀ VU? – the cold war alignment.

Reports are beginning to surface this week even in the New York Media Empires, which should be of no surprise, that international man- on-the-street confidence in the policies of the U.S. has declined during the past two years.

We can see thusly that the polarizing behaviors of the Bush administration, which is constantly revealing more and more extreme right wing agendas in ways which often make one’s jaws drop, is reaping the results which we predicted here last Spring.

Namely, the heavy dominance of "war noise" and "war talk" by Americans as the U.N. undertakes to discover just what is the situation in Iraq is becoming increasingly disgusting to nearly everyone except those who live in Washington D.C. or who work for the New York Media Empires. Most especially gauling is the current agitprop line of the American right wingnuts, such as is currently being mouthed by Defense Secretary Rumsfield. He and the right wingnuts are now asserting that even if Sadam Hussein "appears" to comply with the inspection process, this will prove nothing because Sadam is an evil genius, can hide whatever he wants, and thus the U.N. is a big waste of time. But even so the U.S. already has evidence without examining Iraq, Rumsfield proclaims, to prove that Hussein has weapons of mass destruction (which of course the U.S. is unable to share in a straight forward way because this will comprise American intelligence sources).

Did you ever as a kid use the line: I know but I’m not telling? Or, how about: Ha, ha, ha ha ha. I know where it is but I am not going to tell YOU. Ha, ha, ha ha ha. I am going to get even when nobody is looking.

That’s okay for kid games but how much more embarrassment is the American public going to be willing to endure as they watch their leaders playing such childish nonsense. Is the American mass public now so stupefied by mass media manipulation that they are too unconscious to become aware of the emotional age level (about six or seven) of their foreign policy?

The previous American Presidents of the past sixty years, all those since Roosevelt, could assume and often did, that they had a responsibility and the power to lead the U.S. in leading the world on a mission. But they never assumed in a public manner that they had the ability and the right to do whatever they pleased regardless of the opinion of the remaining nations. They gave great and real deference to creating allies and international agreements to work cooperatively in all things. They never assumed in public activity and speeches, that they alone could decide the fate of nations. The U.N. is the grand finale of this tradition.

But the Bush administration swaggers this "we are the king of the hill" assertion in so many brazen and offensive ways that the attitude has been widely observed and it has set in motion a vast trend of cultural polarization against America. I fear that history will say that the American’s were given the victory of the cold war by the refusal of the Russians to continue it and then, within a generation, the Americans lost the peace through their own ineptitude, deeply embedded corruption, and dismal inability to care enough about each other to come to the grace of making peace possible.

REPEATED FROM PREVIOUS WEEKS

American agitprop will be sharply increased and I predict that the internet will be awash with dis-information about what is really going on inside Iraq and the United Nations. Maximum effort will be made to cause misinterpretation of information about whether or not Iraq is complying with the U.N. arms inspections.

Remember, as presented in previous weeks, DESPITE ALL OF THE AGIT PROP YOU WILL HEAR FROM AMERICAN RIGHT WINGNUTS ABOUT THE UNITED NATIONS, the United Nations has worked perfectly to perform the function which the Americans hoped it would perform. Ironically, we have seen this made to work in a most superlative manner on an extremist-bent American government.

REPEAT FROM LAST UPDATE:

The inflammation of human emotions which the sunspot activity has caused this past 39 months will now slowly ebb. Mental mechanisms will begin to work more clearly. Judgments, policies, and actions may improve. But humans on all sides of all issues have created severe damage to our economic, political, psychological, and legal institutions. No problems have been resolved WHATSOEVER and it will take a generation for some of this latest round of damage to heal. In the short term of the next two or three years, the polarization’s and strategies which have been let lose in the world will continue to exacerbate our conditions and make some of them actually yet still worse. Indeed, some Euro sources even hint darkly of suitcase atomic bombs. And all of this of course will collide with the terrible environmental and economic damage which Solar Cycle 23 has created. The reckoning for this is yet to come.

But in the end it would appear that reason is working better than ever to overcome the worst polarizing tendencies among ever larger groups of people who are struggling for genuine cooperation. This is the main lesson of the month, given at the insistence of the French, the Germans, and the Russians. This may be the main ray of hope.

In the meanwhile, the gravest of problems lie not in Iraq but in Palestine and in the plans of Alqaeda. On these issues the history of the world turns. As stated since the beginning of this year, Iraq is a huge diversion and major military intervention in Iraq at this time under these current conditions is a barbarous idea which only obsessed fools would take up.

EarthMonitor