Tectonic activity remains muted though volcanism is picking up slightly. Geopolitical fronts seem spaced-out, almost surreally drunken.

OAK TREE PREDICTIONS: Unfortunately, the projections are all on track.

POLAR MOTION: Anomaly diminishing

The track of the spin axis as it moves though Chandler’s Wobble is still showing a slightly dented shape but it is looking less significant. Before we can conclude anything new we will have to wait until the middle of next year to analyze and compare this current 6.5 year spiral of Chandler’s Wobble with previous spiral cycles.

SOLAR STORMS AND SUNSPOTS: Oh what a roller coaster!

Sunspots plummeted from over 300 last week to about 135 as of today. Why? Most likely the sudden rise and fall in the daily sunspot count is directly related to the orbital alignment of Mercury with Mars and Jupiter which were nearly perfectly aligned about July 23^rd. The sunspots created by this alignment must have rotated into view of the Earth, partly by the pull of Mercury and Venus, which are now both observable from the Earth. The Mars/Mercury/Jupiter combination also may have generated the unusual number of X class flares which we experienced this July.

The sunspot daily count should decline a bit more during the next few days but look for it to start to rise again no later than next week. Mercury is approaching Venus, even as Venus draws closer to the Earth. This spiraling combination of the inner planets should be even more potent that last month’s alignment of Mercury/Mars/Jupiter. Sunspots will increase steadily in number and rise sharply about September 15, 2002 when Mercury aligns dead on with Venus. X class flares should ignite spectacular aurora lights. A VERY stormy and extreme Fall weather syndrome should continue on through to November 2002.

DROUGHT WATCH: Little relief is in sight

Very little relief evident in many areas but some scattered relief in the higher elevations is helping to save the scrub oaks and pines in some areas of the American Southwest. Several large cactus plants on Mandeville’s site in Black Canyon City have expired.

VOLCANISM: Muted. but increasing slowly, as symbolized this week by a mild new eruption on Papua-New Guinea

Southwestern Volcano Laboratory reports 4 updates today on the restless list (potentially eruptive), 34 on the alert list (eruptive or near eruptive) with 20 of those currently on the active eruption list. Most of the actively erupting volcanoes are in Indonesia or along the Fiji-Papua Tectonic Arc.

But El Popo is sleepier than ever. In the last 24 hours, the Popocatépetl volcano showed a similar behavior as the days before. There were 7 small to moderate exhalations accompanied by steam and gas. At 01:23 of today, there was a volcano-tectonic microearthquake of magnitude 2.1, that occurred 2km South of the crater. Also there were some episodes of low to medium amplitude harmonic tremor for about 12 hr. (courtesy Cenapred).

EARTHQUAKES: Muted in frequency but some large ones in the Southern Pacific Rim Arc of Fire

The frequency of activity for quakes 3.0 and above has been muted all week but their size has tended to be larger in size. On the first of August, curiously, almost all quakes of this size and above were in the Mediterranean, then on the second through to today, nearly all quakes were in the Pacific Rim of Fire, especially in the South Seas spreading rift zones and along the Caribbean Plate margins..

Nothing much of news throughout Western North America. Cal/Nevada count by the USGS for quakes of all sizes is 270 for the last week and the count today seems to be increasing for the New Moon syzygy which is upon us. The USGS count for the Pacific Northwest for the past seven days is 28. None of these were large enough to be felt.

EL NINO: It won’t happen. No more reports for this year.

 GEO-POLITICAL: Everyone is distracted

The crazy talk about Iraq, and who leaks, is going nowhere as the Bush administration continues to lose domestic and international confidence and the American economy teeters and totters. Thank God, things are NOT working out very well on most fronts. Confusion, incompletion, inability to complete, and muted activity in the wake of the explosive ionic waves from the Sun during the preceding 14 days seems to be the current situation. Vacation time and the normal ennui of summer are also in full play. Perhaps everyone is too hung-over this month to be caught up in extreme over-reactions.

For those involved in negative situations and the lower (adrenal-based) emotions, the situation will be adversely energized from mid September through to the end of October. Watch out on all fronts.