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CLICK HERE FOR PDF VERSION OF THIS WEBPAGE Sunspot Cycles & Their Influence On Human HistoryNote: color versions of these and other sunspot graphs and charts are available in the Earth Systems Monitor:
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| Sunspot Cycles & Human History Sunspots are seen as "small" dark spots on the surface of the sun. They are easy to observe and count if the sunlight is strongly filtered. They were first noticed (in Western record) in the year 325 BC by Theophrastus, an Hellenic scientist, and they have been counted on a regular basis since the middle of the 17th century. They come and go in cycles which average about 11 years, as shown in Chart 101 above. These "small" dark spots are conceived by modern astrophysicists to be intense "bubbles" of magnetic energy which somehow cool down the hot gasses within so that they appear dark compared with the surrounding solar atmosphere. These "cool" bubbles are not really very small, they are quite often the size of the Earth and many times giant spots many times the Earth can be seen. Many more physical facts about them can be can be found on the NASA and NOAA websites. A. L. Tchijevsky, a Russian professor of Astronomy and Biological Physics, noticed during World War I that particularly severe battles followed solar flares. Since the sunspots were in a peak period during 1916-17, no doubt the war and its various battles were heavily stimulated by the energies which are boiling off the Sun. Intrigued by the connection of human behavior to solar physics, Tchijevsky constructed an "Index of Mass Human Excitability". He compiled the histories of 72 countries from 500 BC to 1922 AD to provide a strong database to articulate his correlations. After rating the most significant events, Tchijevsky found that fully 80% of the most significant human events, mostly related to war and violence, occurred during the 5 years or so of maximum sunspot activity. Tchijevsky went on to observe that the 1917 Russian Revolution occurred during the height of Sunspot Cycle. Unfortunately, this was one of science’s most costly observations, it earned Tchijevsky almost 30 years in Soviet prisons because his theory challenged "Marxist dialectics". The "solar" connection to terrestrial events has been studied ever since then, but most of the focus has been on the sun itself or on the impact of the cycle on the climate, weather, agriculture, commodity markets, and other non-human phenomenon. Awareness of the human impact, which is far more significant than the well known impact of the Full Moon, has remained highly retarded. Modern humans, unlike the ancient cultures of Egypt, Sumer, Bhararti, Maya, and China, are highly reluctant to admit that their collective behavior is influenced strongly by the Sun. They prefer to believe that reason rules their societies. Chart 101, above, was compiled by compressing all of the average monthly sunspot counts for the past 254 years into this simple graph to show the full range of variation in the average monthly number of sunspots. 23 distinct cycles are shown here, beginning with a peak year in 1749. This chart, and all the others used in this Section, are based on what is called the "ISSN", which is an acronym for the "International Sun Spot Number" which is the consensus count made by observatories every day. As can be seen in the chart, there is a great deal of variation in the average monthly counts and these in turn make quite a variation in the size and width of the 23 sunspot cycles. Note that there are three sunspot cycle peaks which did not have monthly peaks in excess of 100 and there were at least five with monthly peaks which reached 250 or more. That is quite a range for a dynamic cycle and we should expect that the effects in the solar system and in the Earth will show a similar variation. Most likely "the shadow" of the solar cycles can be readily seen in thousands of chemical, mineral, biological, and economic data series which scientists make by studying plants, minerals, and human history. And most likely "the shadow" varies considerably. The official International Sunspot Number, which is also known by NOAA as "RI", is issued by the Sunspot Index Data Center (SIDC) in Brussels. The ISSN comes in three flavors, a daily count, a monthly average, and a yearly average. You can also use "smoothed" numbers, which round off the numbers. Astrophysicists may have a use for smoothed numbers, but for connecting the Sun with weather and human events, the simple counts and averages are generally far more appropriate. Data and plots are available from the SIDC website or at the NOAA website Detailed graphs of each sunspot cycle can be found at John Alvestad’s website. These can be used for paralleling events with sunspot peaks. A great quantity of explanatory material and various sunspot numbers are provided by NASA. This webpage is useful for explaining sunspot numbers: Sunspots A huge, ultra-wide sunspot chart which shows each year since 1749 in complete clarity can be found in the Earth Systems Monitor The following History Cycle Table is based on the average annual ISSN sunspot number. For defining "peak periods", one has to set a "bar" for what constitutes a "peak". Is it 100? if so, we lose several cycles. If it is 50, we gain them all, but the periods are "fat" and include a lot of years in between years which may not be very significant. Most likely, to see the validity of the connection of sunspot peaks with human violence, it is best to set the bar "high" to narrow the number of years. If the major wars all fall within these limited number of narrow bands, it is clear that the connection is very real. To make sure we include all sunspot cycles, the year of the maximum average sunspot count in every cycle was used to define the high point of the solar cycle. The year before and the year after it are added to define the "nominal’ sunspot peak years. For the sunspot cycles with high counts over a longer period of time, a "bar" was set at 100 and all years which were above 100 were included in the "peak" for that period. This is an arbitrary method because the sunspots vary considerably in peak size and also because each of them has a somewhat different peak width. In truth, it is hard to generalize specifically about a sunspot peak because of the high degree of individuality and variability which they show. This method was adopted mainly because of the thesis that human reactions are not caused so much by the absolute numbers of sunspots, but by substantial "changes" in the numbers which drive "shifts" in human mental and emotional processes By using this "dual" method for defining a peak , we have a simple, convenient way to define the periods of maximum change regardless of the numbers. The information in the following table is of course merely illustrative. The number of wars and major economic events which "connect" with the sunspot cycle peaks are much larger than the small number of "major events" which are included here. I have omitted data for the first seven earliest cycles. Prior to the first named solar cycle, which is called Solar Cycle 1, there were at least five cycles for which there is a good consistent profile of daily counts. For students: filling these in with your own school reading and learning assignments would make a first class term paper. Early Solar Cycle Peaks: 1704-1770
Solar Cycle 3: 1777-1779
Solar Cycle 4: 1786-1788
Solar Cycle 5: 1803-1805 under 100 wide (1802-1806)
Solar Cycle 6: 1815-1817 under 100
Solar Cycle 7: 1829-1831 under 100
Solar Cycle 8: 1836-1838
Solar Cycle 9: 1847-1849
Solar Cycle 10: 1859-1861 under 100
Solar Cycle 11: 1869-1871 wide 1869-1872
Solar Cycle 12: 1882-1884 under 100
Solar Cycle 13: 1892-1894 under 100
Solar Cycle 14: 1905-1907 under 100
Solar Cycle 15: 1916-1918 just barely 100
Solar Cycle 16: 1927-1929 under 100 wide 1926-1929
Solar Cycle 17: 1936-1938 wide 1936-1939
Solar Cycle 18: 1947-1949 wide 1947-1950
Solar Cycle 19: 1956-1958 huge peak wide 1956-60
Solar Cycle 20: 1967-1969 stumpy wide 1967-1970
Solar Cycle 21: 1978-1980 wide 1978-1982
Solar Cycle 22: 1988-1990 wide 1988-1992
Solar Cycle 23: 1999-2001 wide 1999-2002
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| Chart 102: Sunspots Cycles & Last Two Recessions
Sunspots Cycles & Last Two Recessions In the History Cycle Table, it is easy to see that both political and economic affairs are profoundly caught up and influenced by the "waves" of sunspot energy. The connections are even easier to spot if we see the sunspot cycle in greater detail. In Chart 102 above, just two cycles are displayed, the current one out of which we are gradually emerging and the last one which took the world on a highly transformative ride from 1988 to 1992. The monthly average counts are shown in the jiggly line and the "smoothed" average annual curve is shown to better define the overall cycle. As we can see from this chart, the first "Bush" recession in 1991 came during the last part of Cycle 22. It was preceded, of course, by the 1987 crash in world stock markets which came just as Cycle 23 was on its way up. The most recent "bubble" crash in 2000 initiated a recession which began almost immediately. Though Republican propagandists are now trying to convince people that the recession ended in 2001, massive job losses through to 2003 suggest that the recession did not end until, maybe, sometime during the early part of 2003. It remains arguable in July 2003 that the recession is in fact not yet over. |
| Chart 103: Sunspot Cycles &
Major Economic Contractions 1926-2003
Chart 103: Sunspot Cycles & Major Economic Contractions 1926-2003 How strong is this historical connection between major economic downturns and the sunspot cycles? We can learn more about this connection of sunspots to economic downturns by directly graphing them together in Chart 103, above. Quite clearly, Chart 103 shows us that there is a rather strong connection between major recessions and the peaks of the sunspot cycles. There was one major exception, the last Great Depression, the bottom year of which (1933) can be seen in the trough between sunspot peaks. The next Great Depression may parallel this exception nearly to a T. Can this historical connection be used to predict stock prices? Is there a correlation between sunspot peaks and the Dow Jones Industrials? (Dow Jones Industrials: these are select stock prices often referred to as the DJI) There is no usable connection except as a harbinger of a coming break. There is zero correlation between daily price movements and average daily sunspot numbers. Is there a connection between long term historical trends in the prices and average monthly or annual trends in the numbers of the sunspots? Not really, the only direct connection that appears is as a "breaking" signal. During a sunspot peak, the speculative Bull Run bubbles in stocks "break" and an economic recession begins fairly soon thereafter. This often leaves the stock prices headed down even while sunspots are still rising. This destroys any statistical averages which can be used for prediction. As can be seen in the graph, there is a decidedly strong parallel between recessions and the peaks. It has been consistent throughout most of the century with one notable exception. The bottom year of the Great Depression in 1932/33 was at the bottom of the sunspot cycle. The collapse of the stock market, however, paralleled right on the peak of the solar cycle in late 1929. Stock prices slid as sunspot numbers slid, and the economy wallowed as sunspot counts reached 0. We may be paralleling the 1929 to 1933 era. There is probably a strong tendency in this era to continue to slide after the bubble break in 2000 for a few years until all of the speculation has been squeezed out of stock prices. From the Bears, we already know that this means stock prices generally must fall yet another 35% to 75% from their levels in June 2003, depending upon the industry and the company. This will eventually probably be the outcome of the current 25 year long depression cycle and we are likely to catch up with this inevitability in 2006 and 2007. In the meantime, most likely we are currently still buoyed up by massive subsidy stimulation, 70 years of institutional barriers, and various social security buffers. This may be enough to create a very modest "faux" bubble amidst a "jobless" economic recovery. |
| Bibliography & Notes
Section One – What This Report Is About "25 Year Economic Depression Cycle" by Edgar Cayce, see "Return of the Phoenix Book Two: The Great Breakup" by MW Mandeville; MetaSyn Media 1999; p. 181Mandeville, Michael Wells: "Return of the Phoenix: A Trilogy In Three Volumes"; Black Canyon Arizona: MetaSyn Media, 1999. Mandeville, Michael Wells: "Return of the Phoenix: Book One – The Veil"; Black Canyon Arizona: MetaSyn Media, 1999. Mandeville, Michael Wells: "Return of the Phoenix: Book Two – The Great Break-Up"; Black Canyon Arizona: MetaSyn Media, 1999 Mandeville, Michael Wells: "Return of the Phoenix: Book Three – The Prophecies"; Black Canyon Arizona: MetaSyn Media, 1999. Mandeville, Michael Wells: "Return of the Phoenix CD-ROM"; All three volumes of the Trilogy are included in four versions: (1) elaborately illustrated in html form for reading with any web browser, (2) in Acrobat PDF documents, (3) in MS Word 7.0 (PC) documents, and (4) as MS Word For Macintosh 5.1 documents; Black Canyon Arizona: MetaSyn Media, 1999. Also available on the Iway at MichaelMandeville.com/
Section Two – The Coming Economic Collapse of 2006 Accuracy of Cayce’s objective historical and science predictions in the "Return of the Phoenix: Book Two – The Great Break-Up" by Michael Wells Mandeville; Black Canyon Arizona: MetaSyn Media, 1999; see the first four chapters.
"25 Year Economic Depression Cycle" by Edgar Cayce, 09/08/31, Reading No. 282-003; see "Return of the Phoenix Book Two: The Great Breakup" by MW Mandeville; MetaSyn Media 1999; p. 181
Cayce/Davis Collection on CDROM; A.R.E. Press, 1992; sold under the title of "The Edgar Cayce Readings"
Earth Changes Almanac & Calendar, 2003+, Black Canyon Arizona: MetaSyn Media, 2003; online html documents at http://www.michaelmandeville.com/calendar/ Mandeville, Michael Wells: "The
Coming Economic Collapse of 2006"; Black Canyon Arizona: MetaSyn Media, 2003; PDF
ebook Mandeville, Michael Wells: "Transmutations";
Black Canyon Arizona: MetaSyn Media, 2003; PDF ebook in progress due late 2003. 385 prediction by Edgar Cayce on 10/19/28: No. 900-412 in the "Cayce/Davis Collection on CDROM"; see Mandeville, Michael Wells: "Return of the Phoenix: Book Two – The Great Break-Up"; Black Canyon Arizona: MetaSyn Media, 1999, see 900-412 on 10/19/28
Vortex Tectonics, on CDROM, by Michael Mandeville, Black Canyon Arizona: MetaSyn Media, 2001 "World Business Cycles"; London, Economist Newspaper Ltd.; Detroit: Gale Research, 1982. Section Three – The Global Political Shift BBC News – The population of Palestine is not known from an census. BBC News estimates it to be 2.8 million. See: http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/low/world/middle_east/country_profiles/803257.stm Imperial Faction - some links: http://www.encounterbooks.com/main_web/resources/resources.html Internet News Media: http://www.globalpolicy.org/ PROJECT FOR THE NEW AMERICAN CENTURY http://www.newamericancentury.org/ 1150 Seventeenth Street, N.W., Suite 510, Washington, D.C. 20036 William Kristol, Executive Director REBUILDING AMERICA’S DEFENSES: Strategy, Forces and Resources For a New Century; A Report of The Project for the New American Century, September 2000; Thomas Donnelly Principal Author, Donald Kagan & Gary Schmitt, Project Co-Chairmen; available in PDF format; see especially Page 9.http://www.newamericancentury.org/ Regular, Arnon: "Road map is a life saver for us, PM Abbas tells Hamas"; Harratz, Wednesday, July 02, 2003 Tamuz 2, 5763 (see Harratz.com (an Israeli newspaper) Rense, Jeff: national radio talk show host; Rense.com – extensive internet archive of professional critical news and magazine articles from press in many countries, plus free lance reportage from around the world on a wide variety of issues and cultural interests. The Old Hopi, 2003 as quoted in "Transmutations", by MW Mandeville, 2003 Thomas, William: "All Fall Down: The Politics of Terror and Mass Persuasion and Bringing The War Home", 2003, http://www.willthomas.net/ or willthomas@telus.net Thomas, William: "The Prozac War", March 6, 2003 http://groups.yahoo.com/group/earthchange-bulletins/message/1113 Thomas, William:, "Is Bush Nuts", 2003 http://www.willthomas.net/isbushnuts.htm Weekly Standard, The; For a review of the nuttiness in the very center of the wacked out wight wing, see http://www.weeklystandard.com/ Zionism, Jews, & the PNAC: "Whose
War? A Neoconservative Clique Seeks To Ensnare Our Country In A Series Of Wars That Are
Not In America’s Interest" by Patrick Buchanan; The American Conservative,
March 24, 2003 Section Four – The Global Media Shift Gilbert, Gustave: "Nuremberg Diary"; Farrar, Straus and Company, 1947, pp. 278-279; "Mass Fear & War – How to impel a country to war"; interview of Hermann Goering Goering, Hermann, interview by Gilbert, Gustave titled "Mass Fear & War – How to impel a country to war" in "Nuremberg Diary"; Farrar, Straus and Company, 1947, pp. 278-279 McLuhan, Marshall and Fiore, Quentin: "The Medium is the Massage"; co-ordinated by Jerome Agel; Bantam Books / Random House, 1967; republished by Gingo, 2000 http://www.marshallmcluhan.com/pub.html http://www.gingkopress.com/ McLuhan, Marshall and Powers, Bruce: "The Global Village: Transformations in World Life and Media in the 21st Century"; Oxford University Press, 1988. Shirer, William Lawrence: "The Rise And Fall Of The Third Reich; A History Of Nazi Germany"; Simon and Schuster, 1960. Shirer, William Lawrence: "The Rise And Fall Of The Third Reich; Part 2, Nazi Germany, Years Of Triumph" - a videorecording; MGM presentation produced by Wolper Productions. This is a Videocassette release of a 1966 motion picture which was made into a series of three films versioned by Films Inc., 1971; traces the expansion of Nazi Germany from Hitler's accession as Chancellor to the fall of France, shows how terror and propaganda can transform a democratic government into an absolute dictatorship, examines the goals and ideals of the Nazi state. Section Five – The Global Economic Shift For daily discussions of economic variables, numbers, and trends, see "John Mauldin Investors Insight" email newsletter by John Mauldin; inquire <johnmauldin@investorsinsight.com>; offers high quality statistical summaries from a variety of sources and up-to-date arguments on the trends. "The Daily Reckoning" email newsletter by Agora Financial Publishing; dailyreckoning@agora-inc.com; see http://www.agora-inc.com/reports/ For discussion of a key to a Century 21 National Economic Industrial Policy, see Birch, David: "Job Creation in America: How Our Smallest Companies Put the Most People to Work"; Free Press, October 1987. Birch has studied entrepreneurial activity since the mid-1970s at MIT; check out the following websites for additional information: http://www.hi.is/~joner/eaps/cq_gazel.htm http://www.cogonline.com/ Section Six – The Coming Dollar Panics Dollar/Euro Trends: see this item Platt’s Energy Advisory: http://www.platts.com/risk_management/futures/index.shtml Halifax Herald Limited, The: Tuesday, May 20, 2003 http://www.herald.ns.ca/stories/2003/05/20/pBusiness157.raw.html Economic Data about job, capital, and production transfers to Asian countries, see McCarthy, John C.: "3.3
Million US Services Jobs To Go Offshore", Forrester Research, Brief of NOVEMBER
11, 2002; inquire press@forrester.com Petrodollar essays, see Putland, Dr Gavin R.:, March 2003; Queensland
University of Technology, Australia, see Heard, Geoffrey, March 2003, Melbourne, Australia, inquire gheard@surf.net.au. New York Times, The: "Dollar Could Careen Even Lower", Thursday, May 15, 2003; http://www.nytimes.com General Citations or References Asahi Shimbun, The: "Common Global Enemy - G-8 Needs To Coordinate A Fight Against Deflation", an editorial, May 30(IHT/Asahi: May 31,2003) http://www.asahi.com/english/op-ed/K2003053100189.html Clark, W.: " 'The Real Reasons for
the Upcoming War With Iraq: A Macroeconomic and Geostrategic Analysis of the Unspoken
Truth", January 2003 (revised 20 February),
http://www.ratical.org/ratville/CAH/RRiraqWar.html FEASTA: The Foundation for the Economics of Sustainability: "This War Is About More Than Oil. OIL DOLLARS!!!! DOLLARS, THE EURO AND WAR IN IRAQ." February 10, 2003; see http://www.indymedia.ie/cgi-bin/newswire.cgi?id=28334
Sartre, "The Petro-Dollar And The Euro Money Is The Root Of War", Ether Zone, April 4, 2003; see http://www.etherzone.com/2003/kirk060302.shtml VHeadline.com: "USA Intelligence Agencies Revealed In Plot To Oust Venezuela's President", Thursday December 12, 2000 see http://sf.indymedia.org/news/2002/12/1550023_comment.php#1551138 Vidal, Gore: "The Enemy Within", The Observer, London, Sunday 27 October 2002 http://www.ratical.org/ratville/CAH/EnemyWithin.html Weisbrot, Mark: "Split Screen In Strike-Torn Venezuela", Washington Post, Sunday, January 12, 2003; Page B04 http://www.washingtonpost.com/ac2/wp-dyn?pagename=article&node=&contentI d=A41444-2003Jan11¬Found=true Section Seven – Surviving The Collapse of 2006 For citations to Cayce’s comments, see "Return of the Phoenix Book Two: The Great Break-Up". Look in the summary chapter Or do keyword phrase searches on the CDROM of the Cayce/Davis Collection.
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