Press Release

October 26, 2000

Length:  4 pages - 1176 words

TRADITIONAL FORMAT IN PDF FILE

BLACK CANYON CITY, AZ -- Michael Mandeville, an Arizona scientist and author, released on the Internet today a summary of his recent scientific discoveries which may revolutionize the earth sciences like Copernicus and Kepler revolutionized astronomy. In this exciting, original discovery, Mandeville demonstrates that there is a clear and strong connection between the outbreak of El Nino and the location of the pole as the Earth rocks back and forth in its annual orbit. With graphs which lay out the patterns through the past 100 years, Mandeville has succeeded in isolating the cause of El Nino despite the failure of hundreds of climatologists and geophysicists to solve the puzzle.

The connection with the Earth’s rocking motion, known as Chandler’s Wobble, is so clear, Mandeville claims, that the onset of the next El Nino can be predicted several months in advance at least seven out of eight times. To demonstrate this new understanding of the Earth, which he believes will revolutionize the earth sciences, Mandeville offers a prediction about the next El Nino: "More probable than not by April 2001, if not, dead certain by April 2002". He qualifies the prediction by citing the location of the pole. He claims that the El Nino will not begin in this phase of the seven year cycle of Chandler’s Wobble until the location of the pole has shifted towards the Pacific by a certain amount which is measured in arc seconds of a degree (-0.01). Mandeville’s graphs show that the motion of the pole is going through an erratic phase and even though it should create an El Nino during 2001, he believes that the erratic motion may delay El Nino for another year. "By watching the motion of the pole week by week", he stated, "we will know sometime in January 2001 if the pole has moved to the right spot for El Nino to onset by this Spring".

These findings, Mandeville claims, are revolutionary for science because no one until now could predict El Nino. They demonstrate decisively for the first time that El Nino must be caused by volcanic heat which rises from the bottoms of the oceans. To show the connections, Mandeville created a graph which he calls the "El Nino Correlation With The X Wave". The chart, which Mandeville regards as revolutionary for geophysics as Einstein’s famous equation "E=MC squared" was for physics, directly connects the El Nino weather phenomenon with the ups and downs of the X-Wave cycle in Chandler’s Wobble.

In a series of related discoveries, Mandeville has released 22 graphs which demonstrate that the same wobbling motion in the Earth (Chandler’s Wobble) partially causes the major outbreaks of seismic and volcanic activity. The charts were recently published in an article titled "Vortex Tectonics: The Primary Factors Which Govern Earth Dynamics" (see the accompanying paper).

Like the onset of El Nino, Mandeville’s graphs show that sudden spikes and peaks in the numbers and size of earthquakes tend to appear at certain times in the cycles of Chandler’s Wobble. In a study of earthquakes in Japan and California, he found that huge increases in seismic activity usually strike suddenly when the Earth’s crust has wobbled over the pole from the Pacific side into the Atlantic side. Mandeville claims that this wobbling motion forces the North Pacific portion of the Earth’s crust to contract slightly every 14 months and a large increase in earthquakes in various areas of the North Pacific is the result. His charts also demonstrate that peak earthquake activity is connected to a seven year cycle in the wobble which Mandeville calls the X Wave.

Using the patterns of correlation which he found with earthquakes in Japan and Southern California, Mandeville prepared a formal prediction of the "windows" of the next two major peaks of seismic activity for both areas. He predicts that Nov 5, 2000 is the beginning of a six week window (plus or minus a week) of exceptional earthquake activity in both areas. He predicts that another dangerous window will open from Feb 1 to Feb 28 (plus or minus a week). After that, past patterns suggest that the remainder of the year 2001 should be clear.

These scientific findings promise to provide an exciting advance in the art of predicting earthquakes. Mandeville believes that the same type of relationship may be found in other areas of the world by scientists who study them in light of his discoveries. He believes that the only difference which will be found is in the timing of quakes in other areas. "Each region is likely to have its own patterns based on the timing of the stress it gets from the changing location of the pole during the 14 month and seven year cycles in the wobble".

Mandeville’s charts may also point to the cause of global warming. His charts show that there has been a large increase in volcanic activity and earthquakes during the past 50 years, which are now at least 3 or 4 times greater than in 1955. The trends suggest that underwater volcanism may be the cause of global warming in addition to El Nino weather. Mandeville points out that "the steady upward climb in world volcanism since 1955 directly parallels the steady upward climb in the amount of discussion about global warming". Since volcanism on the bottom of the oceans is difficult to monitor and keep records on, Mandeville believes it has been ignored and forgotten.

The author outlined a new scientific theory which he calls Vortex Tectonics to explain his findings. He believes that Vortex Tectonics will change the fundamentals of theory and practice in geology, geophysics, and climatology. The motion in the earth’s crust and great tectonic plates is caused by the changing location of the Earth’s spin axis, literally by Chandler’s Wobble and the various fluctuations in it. In Chandler’s Wobble, the spin axis of the earth rotates around a circle in a 14 month cycle. Over a period of seven years, the circle varies from 3 meters (10 feet) in diameter to about 15 meters (50 feet).

The patterns of timing in major earthquake, volcanic, and weather activity clearly mirror this cycle and the major fluctuations in it. "Using the principles and correlations I have discovered, any geophysicist or geologist can predict the next El Nino and the next window of major earthquakes for any part of the world. With additional study, the likely windows of the outbreak of volcanic activity can probably also be predicted".

Articles which summarize Mandeville’s work and present his predictions are currently available in two forms, as ebooks or as printed papers. They may be accessed through the MetaSyn Media web site at "http://www.michaelmandeville.com/~polarmotion/briefings".

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