Earth Systems Polar Motion Monitor

The Wandering Path of the Poles of the Earth
1861-2001

Charts Which Prove That Chandler's Wobble Is Progressively Shifting The Location Of The Poles and the Shape Of The Earth At An Accelerating Rate Since 1916

by Michael Wells Mandeville

1.  Introduction

This is a story board of some 13 charts which tells the history of polar
motion and the drift in Chandler's Wobble since 1861.  These circular plots demonstrate the changing location of the poles as the Earth wobbles back and forth slightly in what is called Chandler's Wobble.

The exact location of the North and South Poles of the Earth's spin axis are constantly changing while the  Earth's crust wobbles slightly around and over the poles in the 14 month and 6.5 year cycles of Chandler's Wobble.

Some people believe that the entire Earth wobbles around and over the spin axis (North and South Poles) but geophysical evidence which has accumulated during the past 20 years directly suggests that it is just the crust of the Earth which wobbles by floating over the hot liquid mantle of the Earth's deep interior.

The plots in this story board demonstrate that the center of Chandler's Wobble has slowly drifted towards the Great Lakes since about 1923.

By analyzing and comparing these 13 charts, we can establish that:

1.  Normal polar drift, as betwixt 1861 to 1916, is probably immeasurably slow from decade to decade, much slower than geophysicists are currently
projecting.

2. Calculations of the average drift of the pole during the past 40 years are probably somewhat correct but they should not be projected either backward or forward in time. The tracks of the past 100 years shows anything but a constant rate, ranging from almost no change at all to a rate of a meter or more per year, and then back to practically zero.  Thus it certain from the existing facts that Humans have insufficient data on board to do much projecting about the drift of the average location of the pole.

3.  The modern epoch of geological activity began in 1916 with the beginning of a progressive drift of the spiral forms of Chandler's wobble.  The average rate of drift  has been about 6 inches per year since then.

4.  Between 1916 to 1930 polar motion became increasingly squirrely, resulting   in a tightening of the spiral into smaller circles which then degenerated into chaotic motion during the mid 1930's as the wobble went through a phase shift (as reported by Yumi during the 1960's)

5.  From 1939 polar motion  and wobble drift became progressively normal while moving at about 6 inches per year.

6.  In the period 1958 to 1964, the rate of drift of the wobble increased threefold   for several years while the the numbers of large earthquakes (2.5 mag plus) and the annual worldwide activity days of volcanoes began to increase in a long trend line.   This increase in tectonic activity culminated during the period 1995-1998 at rates which are about four times larger than the first half of the 20th century and this activity remains currently at close to this all time historical high. 

7.  After 1964, the rate of drift has returned to 6 inches per year at times,
increased again, then decreased again in irregular periods even while the
wobble has slowly expanded in size.  These changes probably have sustained
and expanded the increasing rates of tectonic activity in the Earth's crust.  As the exact location of the spin axis moves, the entire Earth must shape-shift slightly in reaction, which causes earthquakes and the pressure force which pushes lava up and out the world's volcanoes.

8.  The spiral wobble reached maximum size in 1996 and looked normal until 1998 when it hit a bump which caused a dent (which can be seen in the bottom) of the wobble for unknown reasons.  Since then the wobble has tightened up into an unusually small circular size and seems to be undergoing another 1930's style radical downsizing and phase-shifting.

9.  Since December 1998, the drift of the wobble also appears to have accelerated to at least twice the rate of the historical average between 1916 and 1996 but that is a tough call to make on an exact basis.  The method I have used, bisecting multiple times the entire 6.5 year spirals to find the average diameters and centers,   doesn't work on the current spiral which is not yet complete enough to give a result which is truly comparable with previous wobble cycles.  This difficulty is further compounded because the current
spiral circle for 2001 is much smaller than it should be.  The 6.5 cycle should be close to Maxing out late next year or in 2003 and at its current rate of expansion, the maximum size of the 2003 wobble track simply isn't going to come close to its 1996 size.

10.  Mathematicians and astrophysicists might be able to take this line of
analysis further and derive better numbers.  But even with better numbers, they might find things entirely unpredictable since, by comparison with
other cycles, it looks like the next ten years of polar motion could look virtually like chaotic movement in a spaghetti bowl pattern  similar to the era of  the 20's and 30's when the modern era of progressive drift began after a shift in the phase of the spiral wave pattern in the wobble.

11.  Is the wobble showing further instability prior to setting off another era of increasing tectonic activity?  Or is the wobble shifting back to its pattern prior to the 1930's?

For additional information see:  Vortex Tectonics

2.  The 6.5 Year Spirals in Chandler's Wobble Plotted By Excel

Chart Display Notes:

as = means arcseconds

The charts are shown in Arcseconds.

The large grids are equal to 0.1 Arcseconds which is also equal to 3.087 meters or 10.127 feet.

The tiny grid lines mark either .01 or .02 Arcsecond;
.01 arcseconds = 12.1524 feet or 30.87 centimeters

NOTE: Algebraic signs on the spreadsheet chart margins must be reversed to compare with IERS positions. The graph plots as shown are 100% comparable.

 

The chart shows the plot of the location of the North Pole (spin axis of the Earth, not the magnetic pole) as it wobbles in the 14 month circles and 6.5 year spirals knows as Chandler's Wobble.   Each spiral cycle since 1890 is displayed in a unique color and of course most of the spirals tend to blot out each other. Consequently, not much can be seen about the early cycles.  Even so, we can glean two facts from this chart: (1)  Some of the earlier spirals seem somewhat  jerky and non-symmetrical compared to the more regular spirals of the recent past. (2) There is a definite movement of Chandler's Wobble (and thus the average position of the spin axis) since 1861 to the left of the chart along the Y axis in the direction of the Great Lakes.  For more information, we will have to look into the individual spirals.  Take note that this chart shows the center of the red spiral (the latest Wobble cycle) on about the X = .3 as line.

For this and all other Excel charts, the largest spiral circle in the 6.5 cycle is the X Max and the smallest circle in the 6.5 cycle is the X Min. Since the X Min points in the spiral are always the most unstable and show the greatest variations, the X Max was chosen to mark the beginning of each cycle.   The motion of the Earth during the X Max is always the most "regular" and symmetrical.  Accordingly, the X Max movement every 6.5 years should be most like the previous spiral motions during the X Max 6.5 years prior.  If changes are occuring, they will be most clearly seen by comparing the outer edges (X Max) of the spirals.   For the most part, each X Max is shown in a different color.

As will be seen, it turns out that most of the drift of Chandler's Wobble (the permanent "shifting of the poles")   tends to occur during the X Max period.  The pole appears to shift by making the X Max motion longer and deeper, then it never returns enough to move around the same "eye" of the preceeding years.  Literally, a new "eye" seems to be created in the space of a few months of the Earth's most extreme wobble motion.

Naturally, like all things celestial, there is some variation in the 6.5 year cycle.  It can last up to three to four months longer.

The choice of the X value (the measurement of the location of the pole relative to Greenwich Meridian) is arbitrary, the Y value (location of the pole relative to Long. West 90)  could have been used.   But since all of the vortex tectonic correlations have been made with the motion of the location of the spin axis up and down the X or Greenwich Meridian, these circular plots were also defined by using the X Max point to mark the beginning and end of each spiral cycle.

Chart 501: Plot of Chandler’s Wobble from 1861-1964

Even if we wack off the past forty years of polar motion plots, very little additional information can be discerned.   We still see a definite migration of the location of the pole betweeen 1861 and 1964 in the same basic pattern. Note that the center of the most recent spiral in this chart (1958-1964) appears to be on about the X = 0.15 line.

That would seem to imply, very roughly, a drift in the location of something like 0.15 as in about 61 years (from 1958 to 2001), which is, very approximately, 0.002459 as/yr or about 3 inches/year or 7.6 cm/yr.

Polar Tracks 1861 to 1916 - Chart 502

More information about the path of the pole can be seen by just examining the first 56 years of measurements, which finally became consistent enough to use in a database in 1861. (Sporadic measurements began in 1845).

We can see what appears to be a lot of chaotic jerkiness in the 1861-1890 plot. These plots are based on using 10 polar positions per year, which simply is not enough to produce a reasonably smooth curve.   The actual motion of the pole was not nearly as spastic as shown.  The only thing which seems reasonably clear is that there is not much motion in any particular direction.  The plot is enough of a "ball" to that no net drift can be readily seen. 

We can discern the facts more clearly after 1890. These spiral plots are based on records of 20 polar positions per year and become real tracks rather than spastic jerks. By comparing the1861-1890 period with the plots for 1890-1903 and 1903-1909 (in black and green) we can see that there is no or very little apparent movement in the pole. The spirals all overlap each other fairly tightly

A slight sense of movement down to the left bottom corner seems possible.  But if calipers and rulers are used to bisect these spirals to define the average circle and center, net motion during this period seems negligible.

In the 1909-1916 plot we notice an expansion of the spiral, it is larger that the 1903-1916 spiral with perhaps a slight drift towards the left bottom corner of the graph

The outer circle of 1903 parallels well the outer circle of 1909, so not much motion is apparent there. The eyes of the two spirals seem to be slightly apart. This may be motion of the average location of the pole but it may be an illusion caused by the irregularites.  The only major change appears to be that the 1909 spiral expanded in size.

Accordingly, It would appear that there is over the course of 56 years almost no change in the average location of the pole.

This finding is a fundamental fact which directly supports the vortex tectonics theorem. Imperceptible drift may be the normal condtion of the spin axis through most of the ages.  If so, we have fully accounted for the anomalous fourfold increase in tectonic plate motion, earthquakes, and volcanic activity during the last half of the 20th century.  It is directly related to an increasing tempo of drift in the location of Chandler's Wobble which is apparant in the last half of the 20th century.

This is virtually the final proof that the vortex rules. But wait, the evidence builds.

Polar Tracks 1861 to 1923 - Chart 503

With the addition of the 1916-1923 spiral we see a decided change.  Suddenly the spiral form is smaller than it was for at least the two prior ones.  It significantly smaller and became more irregular.  If there is a shift in locus, appears to be towards the bottom of the chart and slightly towards the right

The locus or center of the spiral seems to have defnitely shifted towards the bottom left corner of the graph.  This can be measured on the graph by using four bisects of each spiral from their outer edges to establish their centers.  By this method, it is possible that there was .05 as drift between 1903 and 1916.  However, these spirals are a litlte too irregular to put much stock on this number.

One can also simply analyze the relative positions of their outer edges.  By this means there is no apparent drift between the 1903 spiral and the 1909 spiral.  But it is possible that there was a shift of .02 as in 13 years from the 1903 spiral to the 1916 spiral.

What a change we see when we add the 1923-1931 spiral!  Now the movement begins during the 1923-1931 X Wave along with great instability in the track of the spiral. The spiral waveform has degenerated into a bowl of spagetti. If there is a shift in locus, the shift is towards the left bottom corner but the 1923 spiral seems too difficult to average out to determine a number for the drift.

Notice that the locus or center appears to be almost exactly the same as the Geographic North Pole, x=0 and y=0.

For argument, suppose then that the center of the wobble has shifted some 0.075 arc seconds in the space of some 15 years, from 1916 to 1931

Polar Tracks 1903 to 1939 - Chart 506

The 1931-1939 spiral is still very small  and is still somewhat chaotic but less so than the 1923 spiral.   There is more of a sense of drift in the locus towards the left bottom corner but it is too difficult to compute.  We wil have to wait for more regular spirals.

The X Min, during about 1935/36, shows the strange crazy 8 which created the phase shift in Chandler's Wobble reported by Yumi et al to the IERS conventions and journals. As a result the spiral "appears" longer than the 6.5 year average.  This crazy eight and phase shift confirmed Edgar Cayce's clairvoyant prediction about the change in the equilibrium of the earth causing a change in the Earth's orientation (a micro pole shift) during 1936.   As we can see in the tracks of the pole, it was coming on since about 1916 at the earliest.

Accordingly, 1916 may mark the best date for the end of polar stability which reigned during previous centuries and the time of the  onset of the accelerating shift in the poles which is still gathering speed a century later.

Polar Tracks 1903 to 1945 - Chart 507

The 1939 spiral is still erratic but far less so than the 1923-1931 period. The spiral seems to expand slightly and stabilize.  Ddespite stabilization, the locus is still very difficult to determine.   But it does allows us to see that the sense of slow drift which we have gathered since the 1916 spiral is becoming more definite.

Notice that the entire spiral remains tight, very small like the 1916-1921 spiral. It seems obvious that the spiral has shifted at an accelerated rate.  Since 1931 (at about 0,0 coordinates) the locus has probably shifted some .075 as.

Another radical shift!   The 1945-1952 spiral suddenly expands radically to make Chandler's Wobble larger than is has been since recording began.  The drift of the locus of the spiral is now qute apparent. There is an apparent drift of some.04 as from 1945 to 1958, a period of 13 years.

Polar Tracks 1903 to 1964 - Chart 509

The 1958-1964 spiral suddenly becomes chaotic and jerky.  My my, where have we heard this 1958 number before? The locus of the inner spiral has shifted suddenly to the left by a large amount. Apparent drift is .085 as from 1958 to 1964.

Polar Tracks 1903 to 1977 - Chart 510

Chandler's Wobble stabilized after 1964 but is still some what chaotic through 1977.  Clearly, the wobble began a steady progessive drift along Long West 90 slightly to the bottom corner.   Most of the shift came in the 1976/1977 period.

Using the outer edges of the X Max to measure the progression, there is .025 as drift FROM 1964 to 1971. Between 71 and 77 there was a drift of .045 as.

Since the spirals have become so much more regular, it is now easy to establish with some confidence that the over-all drift by 1977 was .295 as since 1916.

Polar Tracks 1909 to 1990 - Chart 511

Now suddenly again there is an expansion of the wobble in the 1977-1983 spiral.  There is a decided drift towards the bottom left corner of about .02 as from 1977 to 1983. The net motion between 1983 to 1990 is hard to determine.

Polar Tracks 1909 to 2001 - Chart 512

The 1996 spirl is drawn from Dec 13, 1996, several months early to show the shift of the outer edge of the current spiral more clearly against the previous spirals. Between 1990 and 1996, the aparrant drift is about .025 as. In 1996  a decided shift appears with the X Max (outer edge of the red in 1996 of about .025 as since the X Max in 1990. This is a fairly rapid new escalation in the rate of drift.

There appears for all the world what appears to be a dent in the the bottom of the inner red spiral, which is literally December of 1998. Since this dent in 1998, the spiral has become abnormal and is undergoing another major change. It appears to shrinking again, as it has done at least twice just before becoming chaotic or highly irregular, and the radical offset of the center of the spiral may suggest an acceleration in the rate of drift to some .02 as PER YEAR, some ten times the general average.

3.  Table Of Polar Track Data

click here

4.  The "Eras" in Chandler's Wobble Plotted By The Wobble Tracker

4. The Amazing Correlations Of The Position and Motions Of The Pole With Volcanic and Earthquake Activity.

Cayce claimed in the early 1930's  that "cosmic forces" in the solar sysem created earthquake and volcanic activity.  Such statements seemed far-fetched to the earth scientists of his day.  But after surveying the geophysics of what might be involved, Mandeville concluded that the likely suspects were the Sun and the Moon since these were known to produce Chandler's Wobble.  Chandler's Wobble is a constant bobbing of the Earth as it spirals around in a small circle which takes 14 months to complete.  The circling motion varies between about 3 meters and 15 meters in a spiral which takes 6.5 years on the average.

To measure the effect of the Sun and the Moon on earthquake activity, Mandeville first plotted the position of the pole along the X Axis (Greenwich Meridian) as the Earth wobbled through its 6.5 year cycle. This created a 6.5 year waveform (called the X Wave in the Primary Axis Cycle).  This waveform was then integrated with charts of annual earthquake and volcanic activity in various regions of the world. Nearly everywhere, Mandeville found obvious correlations between the position and motion of the pole with increases and decreases in earthquake and volcanic activity.   These correlations are sufficiently consistent to conclude that it is the stresses in the Earth's crust which are directly induced by Chandler’s wobble which creates earthquakes and volcanic activity. 

Mandeville also found that the cosmic factors of the EMS (Earth-Moon-Sun) system are creating new changes in the location and motion of the spin axis which are sufficient to force a major new trend in the shape shifting of the Earth’s crust, most especially in the tropical zones.  This shape shifting is pulsed in the frequency of the 6.5 year X Wave (spiral waveform of Chandler's Wobble) and it has directly induced a huge increase (possibly a fourfold increase)  in the release of the Earth’s interior heat into the bottoms of the oceans during the past 50 years, most especially in the Pacific.  In otherwords, the 6.5 year spiral X Wave is causing El Nino while the progressively accelerating drift or shift in the location of the pole is inducing the release of a steadily increasing amount of heat with each El Nino.  This progressive shift is increasing the severity of each cycle while accumulating as the trend which has come to be known as global warming.

Unlike all other theories of Earth dynamics and global change, these truths are non-theoretical, are completely free of fancy mathematical sophistry, are strictly observation driven, and can always be found to be consistant with all of the data.