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In The Earth

Can the advent of an avalanche of the Earth's Crust (pole shift) be detected in a decisive manner before the main event by directly monitoring the motion of the pole in Chandler's Wobble?  Difficult to say.  If if can be done, it will be done here and posted on the right hand side of this page.

We can use the XY Waveform Monitor Graph on the right to find the point at which the current pole position exceeds the typical high and low peaks of the X Wave. The typical pattern is shown quite well by the first four waves in the X Motion running from the left to the right on Graph 400.  Every two weeks this chart will be updated with the latest daily positions of the pole. If the line of the X position begins to move off the bottom or the top of  the chart. we can consider the avalanche of the crust  to have commenced.

At such a point, unusually large numbers of earthquake activity should appear in the usual quakes zones of Japan, California, the Mediterranean, and other places.  Unusually large amounts of Earthquake activity may also show a progressive move around the world within several weeks as the wobble causes the expanding half of the crust to turn into the contracting half of the crust (each half of the earth must do so about every 6.75 months or so).

For additional information see:  Vortex Tectonics


Ideally a monitor chart should also be done for the U.S. West Coast, for the Eastern Mediterranean Zone along East 40, and for the Fuji-Tonga Plate.  This will give us  nearly equally spaced points of reference which describe the highest stress zones in the crust of the earth.  Unfortunately, the work of creating daily sums for well over 100,000 items is beyond the ability of the author to get done any time soon.  Mandeville is only working on Japan, which is the most active zone.  Accordingly, this work begs for help from volunteers.  If you have spreadsheet software and are willing to spend several hours of boring repetitive, unglamorous work to create a data series for the charts, please contact mwm@michaelmandeville.com.   It is very easy and you do not have to know much about spreadsheets. I have the databases and the formats.  The main issue is that it is terribly time consuming.

With volunteers, an X Wave Monitor Chart could be constructed for other focal points on the earth.







The XY Waveform Monitor
(1995 to current)


chart_polarmotion_ xy_1983-2001.gif (28796 bytes)

WHAT WE ARE LOOKING FOR:  We can be quite certain that a shift in the location of the spin axis (the North Pole) is underway if the X or Y waveform plots begin to suddenly go to the top or bottom edges of this chart.

(these two are updated almost daily)

To see this current motion of the pole in greater historical perspective, the following "Collage of Polar Motion 1931-2000" goes a long way.  It shows the last eleven 7 year cycles in Chandler's Wobble by superimposing their waveforms from Peak (maximum size of the spiral) to Peak (in other words from X Max to X Max). As can be seen, the average length of the cycle is about 7.1 years and the motion of the crust is most unstable during the X Min (the smallest wave in the middle at about point 71).  Though there is variation in magnitude in all of the waveforms, their timing is very similar except at the X Min, where both magnitudes and timing are highly variable.   It appears that this current X Min as shown by the white line  is the most deviant. (We are still in this Min as of October 27, 2000 at about point 83-84).  During the other cycles, the X Min is farily S shaped, sinosoidal with a regular up and down rhythm. But this latest cycle is sawtooth, long and drawn out to throw timing off by three to four months.

Past Point 83 on this chart, the X Wave of this current cycle (white line), is all projected.  As can be seen the IERS computers are attempting to recover the X Wave by pulling it into an average between all of the lines formed by the previous 7 year X cycles.   I don't believe the computers but I have no way to guess where it is going.  Stay tuned for the real white line.

pm cycle collage 1931-2000.gif (43822 bytes)



The X & Y Wave In Chandler's Wobble Plotted With Total Daily Seismic Activity In Japan
last update October 16, 2000

pm 1995-2001 japan.gif (21626 bytes)


The X & Y Wave In Chandler's Wobble Plotted With Total Daily Seismic Activity In Southern California
last update October 16, 2000

pm 1995-2001 southcal.gif (22618 bytes)


Status as of November 6, 2000

The latest bulletin from IERS shows that the X Wave passed the -0.5 arcsecond position several days ahead of schedule. IERS computers keep plotting the predicted pole positions as if the motion is going to return to normal.  This current X Wave Min has been anomolous throughout and it is really impossible to say exactly what is going to happen next.  There may be a true permanent phase shift of Chandler's Wobble underway (it sure looks like it) but the computers have no way of predicting this.

Status as of  October 27, 2000

The Polar Motion Monitor now has three charts and the X Wave has gone negative finally and is now at very close to -0.0421 arcseconds.  It will pass -0.05 on about November 3, 2000 as  the Pacific crust continues to spiral over the spin axis into the Atlantic Hemisphere by a few feet.  At any time, most likely very close to November 5th, perhaps as late as November 15, some of  the previous major "trigger" points for severe earthquakes in California and Japan will have been passed.  The charts now show a date profile which ends at June 31, 2001, which is about Point 100 on the Collage Chart.  This makes them easier to update in the months ahead and it also allows showing how the computers are projecting as of this date what the spin axis will do. Don't believe the computers.

The earthquakes shown in the two monitor charts below have not been updated since Oct 16, mainly because there is almost no new activity to make it worthwhile.  In Japan quakes average the last ten days about one per day, about 4.3 mag average, 30 to 40 miles depth on the whole.  In Southern Cal, quakes average the last ten days about one half per day, 3 to 4 miles depth, about 3.5 or so average.  Very quiescent.


 As of September 22, 2000 - mwm

September 22, 2000 Earth Changes - Polar Motion Update

This update was prompted by Jeff's question

At 0230 PM 9/23/00 -0500, you wrote

Re y-motion IERS Bulletin "A" 9-21-2000

> Michael,

> Been 3 days now and I havent received a response from you to my

>query of y-axis motion. Is this not important? Or did you just not

>understand my original question pertaining to y-axis dramatically

>jumping to the positive many times its normal rate. I realize Bulletin A

>is not final values but close enough to give us an indication of

>shifting.I have been watching values for not even 2 months. You have

>monitored this for years. Therefore I am asking again is this normal?

>Please respond.

> Jeff

 I don't see anything unusual there at the moment on my Y plot, in fact the Y plot of the axis is quite normal though seeming to shift slightly more into the positive as it has been leaning since 1936. It is dipping down a little further to zero than the computers predicted on the trough of the wave. According to the IERS computers we are at the trough of the Y axis right now and the rebound is already beginning. If this occurs normally than there is little on this front to discuss. You have to remember that the geophysicists have identified something like a dozen or so variations in the regular wobble motion. Some of these act for just a few hours or a few days, throwing off the figures in minor bumps and grinds. The only thing we can draw any real conclusions from are the final actual smoothed values which eliminate the variations caused by tidal, solar storms, ringing from quakes, seasonal weather changes, etc. These averaged, smooth values for the month all come from the B bulletin and are available about the beginning of each month for the preceding month.

What is radically interesting is the continued aberration of the X plot. This motion is becoming ever more aberrent. It continues to behave different than the values the computers plotted for it during the preceding month, showing us a profound alteration which continues to unfold. At the current time it now looks as the X wave will trough out in its low about Oct 12th without ever going negative. Since the record keeping began it has never done that, it always has gone negative. Apparantly we have a distinct shift or jiggle in the average location of the pole, as in 1936 and in about three other episodes during the past 100 years. This one is bigger and more sharp, however, and involves minimally several feet, let's say a dozen or so, which would be about one fourth of the diameter of the wobble. Since the shift seems to have begun in about November 1998, some let's say 22 months ago, that is, rounding off very roughly, a shift in the overall orientation of the crust at an average speed of about .55 feet per month.

When the IERS computers generate the final IERS values for September. I will update my files and regen the plots and calculate real numbers for the apparant pole shift. What we will need to do is put all numbers on a real circular xy plot, a big old fashioned graph, and use the graph to calculate the patterns of the shifting average axis and from there see if it is possible to calculate an acceleration factor. If anyone out there in cyberspace has the mathematical acumen to do this from the straight numbers to have the computer generate the graph and inferred accelaration, I am all eyes.

BTW, if the averge location of the pole is going increasingly positive along the X longitude, it means Greenwich, England is shifting permanently to the North. Accordingly all signs seem to indicate that the Phoenix Five Avalanche of the Crust Scenario is approximately on track in terms of overall direction.

 As of September 3, 2000 - mwm

Chart 400 has been completely restructured to more clearly display the X Wave Motion and its various anomalies.  The fundamental change in the X Wave continues. The up motion for the last truncated wave on the right side of the graph was three months late and it never recovered.  In this redrawn chart it seems as if the anomaly began with the slight jag in the peak of last true X Wave between 11/11/98 and 12/11/98.  The "out of season" earthquaking continues in Japan.  A wave mechanic theorist would say that a fundamental shift in the phase and amplitude of Chandler's wobble is underway.  How the polar motion will stabilize itself into a new wave form, if it does, is unknown.

(following discussion is all heliocentric perspective) At sunset, following directly in the train of Ra, ooops, the Sun, even before the glow has disappeared from the clouds, one easily can see these next several days an extremely bright evening star.  Isis, I mean Venus, of course.  Venus will eventually overtake the earth and conjunct with it in a few months.  In the meantime, Thoth, er excuse me, Mercury is about to conjunct with Isis and together they will pull a huge amount of solar storms in their direction which fortunately for us is nearly a full 90 degrees away from the Earth..  As Mercury passes Venus and overtakes the Earth during October, solar flares and Earth's weather should get choppy with some attitude but Venus, because of the large angles relative to Mercury and the Earth, serves as a buffer during this time and should disperse some of the weather.  During the next week an unusual configuration of the solar system will form a huge grand cross. Click to see the orrery chart from Home Planet.   This dispersion of the polarized gradient in the solar sea should keep the Earth's sailing around the sun energetic during this sun spot peak period, but no monstrous pole shifting storms should be encountered.  We will sail into plenty of those next year, especially from March onwards. 

As an excercise of attunement to the cosmic forces, start finding and observing and following these two planets in the sunset sky and during the remainder of the next year.  Mercury I have not found yet, believe it or not it has been too thunderstormy and cloudy here in the Western skies of central Arizona to see much of those planets .  But Venus is so bright it even shines right through thin vapor streams.


As of August 23, 2000 -MWW

I forgot to download the current datafiles for the pole's current position during the past two weeks and so now I will have to wait for the monthly bulletin which comes out at the begining of Sept. There is no unusual movement towards the outside of the window of this graph.  The X Wave is headed towards the zero line at the moment, drastically late as discussed below.

As of August 3, 2000 - MWM

During the past three weeks the anomalies with the X Motion of the pole and earthquakes in Japan have continued.  A high level of seismic activity in Japan continues "out of season" (the current level of activity should occur when the X Wave is in  the negative numbers, not while the numbers are positive as they currently are).  Thus current seismic activity is substantially higher than the "norm".  The X position of the pole is at least two weeks behind schedule in a long truncated X Wave Min.  The X Wave Min, which had its peak about December 1998, should have bottomed out during the middle of 1999 and begun a rebound wave to a higher X Wave.  This new X Wave (our current one, the last one shown on the right hand side of Graph 400) should have peaked about May 2000.   But the current X Wave just began to shakily fall in June and the shape of the curve is unusually long and slow as well as exceptionally low.  It is as if the pole is seeking to come to absolute rest near the absolute geographical (arbitrary map) position of the pole (where X=0). The Y Wave continues to appear to have normal dimensions with one exception.  The last low point and the current low point are about .05 arc seconds higher than at any time previous. Normally the Y Wave has gradually been pushing its low point higher and higher, about .01 arc seconds during each 6.5 year low point in the cycle.  But during the first few months of 1999 the low point suddenly raised up by about .05 arc seconds. This suggests a distinct distortion of Chandler's Wobble which appears (permanently) to be pulling the Earth down approximately East 90 or pushing it up West 90 (same vector on the sphere of the Earth) much more energetically at the moment than up and down the X plot (Greenwich Meridian).  Seemingly, some sort of new permanent "lean-to" of the Earth's equilibrium is in the process of forming up.   How normal or abnormal this may be is impossible to say except to say that there very few instances during the 20th century which showed an equivalent degree of overall abnormality on both the X plot and the Y plot at the same time.

Does this new angle suggest that the Phoenix Paradigm in "The Prophecies" is off by 50 degrees?  In the Avalanche of the Crust scenario, up East 40 was selected as the most likely direction of the avalanche.   Is the direction of fall just now beginning to show as up East 90?  Could be. But it is much too early to say and I still have a hard time supposing that the Himalayas can "fall" straight North.

The current Y Wave chart replaces the chart of July 20.  The only difference is that the July 20 Y Wave Chart has computer projections through to September and these are eliminated in this new chart to give it the same ending point as the X Wave Chart.

As of July 20, 2000 - MWM

After several decades of regular, symmetrical behavior which slowly increased and then decreased in six to seven year cycles, the X Wave shows high abnormality since October 1999.  The recovery from the low point (X Min on approximately July 1999) in the X Wave Motion  is not occurring properly.  The X Motion of the wobble is severely truncated and drawn out as can be seen clearly in the last eight months of  X Wave Monitor Graph 400.  For the normal appearance of the X Wave Motion, click to see Chart Graph 314.

The shape of the X Wave is not the only abnormality. Anomalously high amounts of earthquake activity struck Japan in clumps during April, June and July.  This increased activity occurred during the high point in the X Wave Motion.  Normally, increased activity occurs during the low point in the X Wave Motion.

Prior to the beginning of the abnormality, this simple but amazing chart demonstrates the new vortexian Tectonic principles to a T.  Where the X Wave is the largest, i.e. where the wobble moves the crust the most, as can be seen on the first wave on the left hand side of the chart, Japan's seismic activity is generally the greatest, which can be seen to begin for the most part as the wave descends briskly into its deepest trough.  The release of the energy comes generally in the greatest amounts while the X Motion is negative (see the scale on the right hand side).  The X Motion is negative while England is bobbing South and Japan is bobbing North. Japan's northerly bob, not more than 50 feet at the extreme of the X Max about every seven years, contracts the North Pacific crust and this contraction creates the cracking and tectonic squeezing which produces Japan's earthquakes.

Do not overlook the fact that just 50 feet of crustal motion produced the destructive Kobe earthquakes which can be seen as part of the tall spike of seismic energy just after the first wave in the X motion on the left hand side of this chart.

Observe that as the X Motion becomes less extreme, with a smaller amount of up and down movement while the chart moves to the right, the amount of seismic energy which is released is vastly reduced.  It still shows a bit of clumping, though, at the bottom of the trough of the X Wave.

This chart shows four peaks of the X Motion and a fifth sort of very shallow or damping-out motion on the far right.  Normally, looking backwards for the past 100 years, this fifth wave should look virtually the same as the fourth peak.   For comparison of  the X Wave Minimums during the 20th Century, see again Chart 314.

At the X Min, the Earth's wobble for the entire year is relatively small compared to its motion at the X Max, which is shown by the large peaks on the far left.  The fourth wave on this chart is the X Min and is relatively normal. The fifth wave should be the start of the upsurge of the X Wave.   Should be. Or have we already seen the last normal X Wave of the Fourth World?   Notice how the line of this truncated wave is not as smooth as the regular waves.

July 2000 Interpretation of the X Wave Monitor Chart

The closest correlate to such a badly skewed wave form is probably the 1936 jiggle in the axis when the phase and amplitude of the X Wave shifted in a major way and began the "lean-to" of the Earth into the Pacific Hemisphere.  Since then, there has been progressively more motion of the X Wave into the Pacific than the Atlantic.

It is highly likely that this skewed waveform which is currently unfolding is another shift in phase, amplitude, and timing of the Earth's wobble. Ironically, Edgar Cayce predicted both the 1939 jiggle and unusual tectonic activity in this period of 1998-2001. Just what the implication is at the moment is not clear.  But what is clear is that there is an unusual outbreak of increased levels of seismic activity in the area of Japan during the past three months. That outbreak should occur when the X Wave is going minimum, not while the motion is climbing well above the Zero line.  In other words, the Earth's 20th century rhythms may be disappearing and what appears to be chaotic behavior may be setting in.

The Incan Medicine Men might say this is a Pachacuti, a rupture in "time" during which the Earth is transformed, even turned over.  From the point of view of the rotational momentum of the earth, that is a pretty good Zen "suchness".  The Earth's timing is indeed changing and this will cause a "turn-over" in the phase of the cycles. This change in the timing of the wobble may be a precursor to an avalanche of the crust.  This turn-over may be the Earth Ballerina falling in space.  Will she catch her balance as she did in 1936?

Yet perhaps there has JUST been another jiggle in the phase and amplitude of the X Wave similar to the one in 1936. Perhaps some of the normal motion in the X direction is just skidding somewhat sideways into the Y Motion. Perhaps the jiggle has thrown the motion of the mean position of the pole into a somewhat different direction which is not well described by either Greenwich (The X Motion) or West 90 ( The Y Motion). Perhaps there is nothing mystical or ominous about any of this.

So for the time being, all we can do is watch the X and Y Motions, ever circling  around the exact position of the axis like an Eagle.  I have made this my standard monitoring chart and I will keep adding new polar motion data every two weeks as new data is made available by the IRS Bureau. The projected polar positions for the year ahead by IERS scientists are of little value, there is currently too much deviance showing every month. Certainty comes only from constant vigilant updating.

To Find More Background Info and Tools For Observing the Motion of the Earth's Crust & The Parallels & Synchronicities with Seismic, Volcanic, & El Nino Phenomenon, click here.