Earth Changes Gallery

Powerpoint Presentation Outline
 

Abstract  |  Table of Contents  |  Introduction  |  Background


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Cosmos & Planets  |  Climate  |  Earth's Wobble  |  Earthquakes  |  Humanity  |  Solar Activity  |  Tectonics  |  Volcanism

 

 

 

Abstract

Table of Contents

Powerpoint Slideshow 1:  The Changes In The Earth - First Synopsis

 

 

Introduction

 

Background

 

Powerpoint Slideshow 1:  The Changes In The Earth - First Synopsis

Slide 1:     Title Page

 

 

The Changes In The Earth
First Synopsis

 

From Orbits
To Quakes, Volcanoes, Oceans, Global Warming, & Chemtrails,

 How The Earth Really Works &
~Why Carbon Dioxide Is Just Hot Air~

 
 

 

Script For Slide 1 :     Title Page

Hello Nexus Australia.  Thank you Duncan for what  was a great introduction, I hope...  Just Kidding, Sorry I had to miss it.  I am trapped here in the belly of the imperial beast pounding on its sides as hard as I can to escape, alas, it is to no avail.  I must labor on here for awhile yet as I finish my book writing and care for an ailing mom.

As you can imagine from the title, we have a rather ambitious presentation packed into this little Powerpoint show.   We are going to attempt to deal with the whole earth, at its most basic level, as a unified field in which its phenomenon really is all linked.  We are going to move rapidly through a tremendous terrain, working our way finally into orbit to catch a glimpse of the prime driver of the ceaselessly changing flux which shapes the earth, sculpts its features, produces all the major geological features and geophysical phenomenon such as earthquakes and volcanoes.

As we move along on our way through and around and above the Earth, we are going to discover that Global Warming is primarily a minor side product of vastly long tectonic processes and cycles, whereof we humans know very little but fortunately can now observe and define their activity.

We will also discover a few profoundly new realizations or theorems about the Earth.  By the time we are through we will have

  • turned the concepts of Global Warming Upside Down.
     
  • turned some geophysical and astrophysical  theories about the Earth's Wobble inside out
     
  • we will have proven must geophysical statements about the historical flow of seismic activity to be  flat wrong, as least the generalizations which float commonly through  Anglo/American academic circles.
     
  • we will found how tectonic motion is created directly from orbital fluctuations and cycles
     
  • and we will clearly see that this motion produces the quakes, volcanism, the rifting of the earth, the subduction of the continents, and global warming.

Now all of this of course takes the rather boring subject of plate tectonics and massively chops it into a turbocharged new paradigm for Earth Sciences 101.  Its a Hummer and I call it vortex tectonics.

Mind you, some of the findings presented will revolutionize the Earth Sciences and unify them for the first time.  Today you are being given the first pre-publication review of these findings and how they fit together. 

ONE THING WHICH WE WILL NOT DO is attempt to disprove or prove Global Warming.  Global Warming is incredibly real and it is on-setting at an unpredicted, unpredictable, accelerating rate.  There is a reason to be concerned about the issue and what to do.

ANOTHER THING WHICH WE WILL NOT DO is debate CO2 .  It is impossible to debate the greenhouse gas theory of CO2.  THERE IS NO REAL THEORY AND THERE IS NO EVIDENCE WHICH FITS.   The current so-called theory of CO2 greenhouse gas is merely a supposition, a speculation of what might be so.  How can you debate an empty bag?   Accusing C02 of "the murder" of the climate is rather like accusing "the butler" of the crime simply because he is in the house.    Instead I will demonstrate what is the primary source of the current round of Global Warming, namely, underwater volcanism.

If you still need to get up to speed on Global Warming, go google it on the Iway.  Our purpose today is to "frame" Global Warming within a "context" which is provable.  From this context we can get some real ideas of what is really going on and what we might expect.  In fact, based on what we can see of the tectonic "context" of global warming, we can draw some reality-based trends and expectations which are far superior to the computerized speculation machines which the climatologists call the "climate models".

What you will see here in this Powerpoint presentation is only the tip of the iceberg.  A rather large web site is being developed as an extensive gallery of literally hundreds of graphs, charts, diagrams, maps, and data sources which support the claims I am presenting  This web site is not quite organized enough to let you wander through it yet.  It will take a few more months. 
 

 

 

 

Slide 2: Earth Changes Website - Main Menu

Script For Slide 2:   Earth Changes Website - Main Menu

And here it is.  The website.  Housed currently at Michaelmandeville.com.  The most developed public feature at the time is the Earth Changes Bulletin.  It is more or less a blog in which I have been practicing summarizing the activity of the Earth for the past several years.  A brain trust has grown up around it througn my subscribers and we collect a lot of interesting stuff.  With the advent of the imperial coup by the Cheney/Bush Junta in 2001, we also  have been covering global issues of war and peace.

The Earth Monitor is a collection of links which I use to canvas the activities of the Earth and solar system but it is regretfully out of date.  I still use many of the links but you might find it a little frustrating to use.

The Gallery is what is coming along now, it is a small tip of which you will see today.

We have so much ground to cover, I had better move as briskly as I can. To make it easy to follow my train of thought, I am going to bend over backwards to use as little science jargon and specialty words as is possible.

 

Slide 3:  Michael Intro

Script For Slide 3:  Michael Intro

 

First, you need to know a little about how I can make such audacious claims.  Allow me to introduce myself by sharing this webcam pix. 

 Here I am holed up in my cave in the desert hills of Arizona about 60 miles north of Phoenix in the American Southwest, about 150 miles from the Grand Canyon and the Hopi Nation, both of which are well worth visiting more than once.  Between there and here you can easily observe a half billion years of Earth history.

I am a natural systems scientist who has been studying the Earth, its changes, and the various issues in the various earth sciences for  a long time.  I originally embarked on my life voyage in the real world after finishing my doctoral exams in general systems theory and political science. After a few lifetimes,  I now live very modestly on a small social security income and occasional income from my writings, and subscription donations to my work. 

 
Slide 4:  The Return of the Phoenix

Script For Slide 4:  The Return of the Phoenix

I have a trilogy of books, originally done in 2000, which is focused as a scientific assessment of the life and work of Edgar Cayce. It is being updated and will be released in a second edition in a few months.

 

 

Slide 5:  Economic Collapse of 2006

 

Script For Slide 5:  Economic Collapse of 2006

Here is the last book I wrote and released in 2003. I took an Edgar Cayce prediction about a 25 year economic cycle, proved it, and then projected into 2006 to predict a downturn beginning in 2006 and continuing through 2007 and into 2008, possibly deepening into a depression.  I also used my systems science skills to predict that the invasion of Iraq would turn into a bitter tragedy, would achieve nothing but destruction and the ruination of U.S. credibility around the world and that this would make the economic downturn an especially bitter one.  I also forecast that corporate globalization schemes, mass media bias and manipulation, and the two major political parties were all working against the well-being of the average U.S. citizen, not to mention the rest of the world.  I warned that the Democratic Party would fractionate and possibly self-destruct through impotence, vision and understanding, and  lack of decisive moral leadership.     So far it seems I was a little early on the economic collapse, but not by much.  The imperial war economy is warding off the depression by taxing the world through inflation of the dollar to keep U.S. economy working at large numbers of low paying jobs.  It also seems that I was not pessimistic enough about the profound stupidity of American political elites and the mass media which shills it.

A word to the wise.   The Cheney-Bush Junta & its Zionist  allies have created an immense tragedy so huge and beyond anyone's ability to fix  that the Junta and its supporting  Zionist mobs are now attempting to escalate into a major war in the middle east to aggressively "indianize" the Iraqi populations while imposing near dictatorial controls over the North American populations.  I frankly advise Australians to decouple politically as much as they can from any Anglo-American-Jewish political cliques who support Globalist policies and U.S. hegemony.  Those people are very sick people and they have created very bad karma.

 

 
Slide 6:  Nine Trends Changing The Earth

 

Script For Slide 6:  Nine Trends Changing The Earth 1875-2025

At the current time I am working on a draft manuscript tentatively called "The Nine Trends Changing The Earth - 1875-2025.  I hope to publish this in 2008, the earlier the better. 

Here are the nine trends, which include the Earth's Wobble, sea level, seismic activity, volcanic activity, the progressive drift of the Spin Axis, the warming of the world ocean, average temperature  of the atmosphere, average CO2 level, and average temperature deviation.  As you can see, most of the trends are clearly trending upward.  The main question before us it what is causing what?  The answer to this question is what you are about to see in this presentation.  We will.  If one had no preconceptions and biases, one can deduce directly from this chart which trend is the prime driver of global warming.  But it will take some coaching to "get" how it works.  So we will have to leave this chart and plow through a variety of background material to "get" the context in which you can see how it all fits together.  We will return to this chart to summarize our case.

 

 

Slide 7:  The Earth Changes Gallery

 

Script For Slide 7:  The Earth Changes Gallery

 

Here is where all the supporting, coaching, and material demonstration of proof resides.

The Earth Changes Gallery constitutes many of my notes and all my main supporting material for my graphs  and observations.  You can see I am covering the main bases related to the terrestrial environment.  There is a lot of material there and it is primarily graphic oriented for quick and easy browsing.  When it is ready, I intend to engage in a high stakes stand up debate with Al Gore, the IPCC, and the main earth science disciplines. Using the communication powers of the Iway, I intend to challenge serious scientists the world over  to provide what they call "peer review" of the findings I am presenting here today in very terse form.

I am talking this approach because my systems approach cuts like a buzz saw through national, professional, and topical boundaries.  It is practically impossible to find anyone who will stick their professional neck out on so much material which forces so much paradigm-shift.   So, rather than seek a non-controversial acceptance, I am going to seek a stand-up confrontation around  the focal point of Global Warming and carbon dioxide.  Standing on the platform of this research, I unequivacobly state that programs to reduce "carbon" are a total waste of money.  Humanity needs to learn how to adapt to Global Warming which is mostly produced by the tectonic activity of the Earth. Humanity also needs to radically reduce its noxious chemical pollutions and its mass  tendency to violent psychosis and lunatic wars.

During the coming months and year, I hope, I believe that Nexus Magazine will play a key catalytic role in stimulating a thorough examination of what I am claiming and the issues of how to adapt to the growing warming of the Earth.

 

 

 

 

 

Slide 8:   Earthquakes Storyboard - Start Page

 

Script For Slide 8:   Earthquakes Storyboard - Start Page

 

Here are two graphs which started me on all of this.  These two graphs are the front page for the Earthquake Storyboard in the Earth Changes Gallery.

Both of these graphs were originally composed in 2000 but as you can notice they have recently been updated to 2006/7.  The original graphs appeared in the trilogy of the Return of the Phoenix to verify predictions Edgar Cayce made during the 1930's.  He claimed that during  the last half of the 20th century  a process of gradual geological  change would begin and accelerate in fits and starts and then accelerate again in and after the period 1998.   As you can see the graphs above verify Cayce's predictions in two completely different ways.

Most profoundly important to us and the current issues in the world, each of these trend graphs supports the validity of the other.   This is an important part of the chain of scientific reasoning on which I will build up the argument. These two are completely different kinds of phenomenon with completely different kinds of data, all collected by many people over the past century or so, and assembled in completely different kinds of databases.  Using simple selection algorithms, one can, I as have, objectively select this data and use it to paint it into these graphs.  The main ingredient is a lot of time.  And then, VOILA!  A dynamic duo which which leads us to the cause of global warming as well as a radically new understanding of how the earth works.

 

Slide 9:  World Earthquakes 4+ 1973-2004

 

 

Script For Slide 9:  World Earthquakes 4+ 1973-2004

 

Let's get a better view of how these graphs fit together.

Here we have about a threefold gain in seismic activity in a period of about 34 years.

Please note that the number for 2007 is not accurate. It is likely to be closer to 40 than 35.  The early part of 2007 was a "weak" season for quakes, the last five  months of this year are a very strong season, thus the average will be close to 40/day for the world average of 4+ quakes.  Magnitude 4+ quakes are easy to work with because the database in relatively small and the consistency of the reporting and counting is easy to establish back to about 1973.

Unfortunately, it is not advisable to use most of the quake databases for periods earlier than 1973 so we are stuck with a short trend line. Notice 1986, 1995 and 2005.  These are key dates which show up over and over again in various graphs of Earth phenomenon.

 

 

 

 

 

Slide 10:  World Volcanic Activity 1973-2004

 

 

Script For Slide 10:  World Volcanic Activity 1973-2004

Now let's take a look at world surface volcanism.  I have to specify "surface" because it turns out that most of the world's volcanism, by a huge margin, is underwater, probably in the range of at least 10,000 to 1.   Some say by a million to one.  So we are looking here at just a sample of visible volcanism.

Fortunately we can plot world volcanism for a much longer period of time than we can seismic actiivty.  As you can see, a trend commences in 1950 which has accelerated in about five major "waves", which are about 5 to perhaps 10 years wide, most typically at about seven years.   This is another number to put in your critical search registers.  It reappears over and over again in the phenomenon of the Earth.

The trend from 1950 is entirely valid.  It is based on a sample of 50% of visible world volcanism and the count was highly qualified and detailed.  Did you check out 1986, and 1995, where the last huge spike of volcanic activity begins?  Part of the graph for the last surge is based on extrapolated numbers, but the closing numbers are actual counts and  the average level is over 6500 activity days/year.   It looks like 2007 will come in at close to the highest peak and indeed it may set a new world record in the count.

With the publication of these two charts, I more or less finished with my study of Edgar Cayce's work and took up strict empirical study of the natural systems which manifest and evolve the realities we call the Earth.    All that I am currently doing on Earth Sciences is completely empirical and all of the concepts and theories are directly induced and deduced from comparing a wide variety of phenomenon.

 

Slide 11:  World Quakes 2.5+

Slide 11:  World Quakes 2.5+

Since the greater part of sesimic activity is under 4.0, I decided to see if a trend could be see in the small quakes.  I drew the line at 2.5, which eliminates a lot of potential noise, like mining operations, and found this trend.  I used a completely different database maintained by different people than I used in the other quake chart.  Since 1973, we find a five-fold increase in total quake activity at magnitude 2.5+

This is a very interesting chart, but one must wonder just how valid it may be.  The USGS people deny there is any trend here, that it is all "report inflation" created by more people reporting more quakes each year.

Since this is a serious scientific issue, I decided to validate or qualify the claim in some way.

In aggregate, the trend charts have implications which sweep through all corners of the Earth Sciences.  Thus it is very important to establish that the validity of the trends are in fact real, that they are not just  "artifacts" of the way the databases were compiled, or the report process which created them, or the eccentricities of the graph-maker.

For quakes 4+, the answer is fairly easy.  By 1973, under the driving threat of nuclear war, Earth was well wired with monitors to watch for nuclear testing and possible nuclear warfare on other continents.  Quakes 4.0 plus were not likely to be missed, except possibly in some of the remote interior of Africa, Antarctica, and the ocean floors.  For the most part these remote zones are not active.  Thus, no problem. And no report inflation since 1973.  For some specific areas of the world, objective trends in Class 4+ quakes probably can be observed back to the 1930's.

For quakes below 2.0, visual examination of the record shows databases which are clearly inconsistent even  into the 1980's.  Year by year, suddenly appearances of new reports from new sources appear and become regulars. It seemed clear, thus, that the main issue of "report inflation" in the statistics would be the addition of small quakes.  Since these exist in much larger numbers than the larger quakes, the flood of their numbers could obviously seriously distort the record and easily create the illusionary appearance of trends.

 

 

 

 
Slide 12:  Validation Of 2.5+ Quakes For 1991+

Average Size For Quakes 2.5+ 1973-1998
 

 

Script For Slide 12:  Validations Of 2.5+ Quakes For 1991+

After examination of the catalogs and some random charting, the magnitude level 2.5 was chosen to test the consistency of the database. The question was:  did the average size of the quakes for each year remain in a consistent range of fluctuation, or did it some some trend appear which could signal an inflation by reportage. The next two charts go a long way towards answering the question.  This first chart was prepared for the original edition of Book Three in the Phoenix Trilogy. The second chart updates the time series through 2007 and appears in the revised edition of the Phoenix Trilogy.

Since 1991, there is no report inflation.  The "average" size of all quakes in this database of the USGS is 4.0 in 1991 and the average is nearly constant to the current day. Prior to 1991 the average keeps dropping, suggesting that larger numbers of small quakes are being reported.  Could be report inflation, so we will simply exclude all under 4.0 prior to 1991.

This vaccinates you against a the inevitable pooh-poohs which uninformed geologists who have not examined the data will give as a retort to the trend charts.

Roll up you other sleeve, we have two more vaccinations. 

 

 

Slide 13:  Validation Of Quake Trends 2.5 By Comparison 1987+

 

 

Script For Slide 13:  Validations Of Quake Trends 2.5 By Comparison 1987+

 

This chart provides an excellent way to validate trend charts for quakes as small as 2.0 to about 1991.  Since this time, we can see three major ups and downs in the small quakes.  The rise and fall suggest NO TREND AT ALL in small quakes from 1991, all of the trend of increase is in the larger magnitudes, primarily in the Class 3 and Class 4 quakes.

Incidentally, the 2007 numbers are extrapolated since June 2007 and the actual numbers are running now somewhat higher.

 

Slide 14:  Average Annual Increase In Quake Database Counts

Script For Slide 14:  Average Annual Increase In Quake Database Counts

 

This chart provides another excellent way to validate trend charts for quakes as small as 2.0, to at least 1991 and probably for some considerable period of time before then. This is a straight forward simple annual average during the periods indicated. 

If report inflation was a serious issue, you would expect to see the largest columns on the left, with the smallest on the right.  Thus we have another strong indication of a serious trend

 

Slide 15:  The Trend In 3+ Quakes In Southern California

 

Script For Slide 15:  The Trend In 3+ Quakes In Southern California

Southern California is not actually as actively interesting as a lot of other tectonic quake zones. Despite the talk of a "big one" in California, this area is downright staid, is far less dynamic than most of the rest of the Pacific Rim. The edges of the Australian Tectonic Plate are far more interesting.

But, Southern California offers a first class consistent record of quake activity and an excellence in the databases of its  records which makes it virtually impeccable as a focus of scientific study.   To my current knowledge, it is the only zone on the planet which provides us with a high quality series of all 2+ quakes from 1933 to the present time which is entirely free of "report inflation" problems.   For most of the world we have to be satisfied with only a 1973+ series or a 1991+ series.

Do we have a trend?  Southern California confirms that a trend indeed did begin during the 1970's.  It also appears to tell us that there was nothing significant before then.

 

Slide 16:  Map Of South Cal Quakes 2+ 1932-1996

Script For Slide 16: 

 

Slide 17:   Linear Growth Trend - South Cal 2+, 1932-2028

 

 

Script For Slide 17:   Linear Growth Trend - South Cal 2+, 1932-2028

By digging deeper down to the 2.0 level, one can establish that there is no apparent report inflation problem for South Cal quakes.  One can also define a linear growth curve to define the slow increase in the average number of quakes for the period.  Please note that the dip in 1979 is a current known "void" in the database, not a true statement of quake activity.

Basically the trend suggests that from roughly 1.5 quakes per day in 1932, the pace will accelerate to about 10 in 2008.  Clearly, even in a relatively staid tectonic zone, there is a long term trend in the Earth which is well-qualified and clearly visible.

 
Slide 18:  South Cal Quakes 2+ 1932-2007 With Cosmic Parallels

 

 

Script For Slide 18:  South Cal Quakes 2+ 1932-2007 With Cosmic Parallels

If you analyze these trends carefully, you find there are some correlations between quakes and lunar declination and also with the size of the Earth's Wobble.  Can you spot them?

Blue line represents the angle of the Moon's orbit vis a vis the Equator.  The scale is on the right hand side.  Every month the Moon completes an orbit around the Earth and because its orbit is tilted, the Moon travels to the north and the south of the equator every month.  This tilt as measured against the Equator of the Sun is about 5 degrees at maximum, slowly varying through an 18.6 year cycle (and longer ones t00).  But as measured against the Earth's equator, which is tilted by about 23.5 degrees against the Sun, the total lunar tilt can add or subtract from this amount.   Thus the amount of the tilt varies from 18 to 29 degrees, slowly changing over an 18.5 year cycle, generally called the Saros Cycle or more popularly known as the eclipse cycle.   The 29 degrees is quite an extreme.  We are currently very close to this extreme and will be there for another year or so.   Can you notice the plunge in quake activity when the declination is at its smallest?  The entire Earth quite obviously responds to declination and you will see that over and over again if you compare quake charts with the declination of the moon.  However, the declination is not the only factor involved in triggering tectonic activity, thus this relationship is often obscured.

 

Slide 19:  Lunar Phase Cycle

Script for Slide 19:  Lunar Phase Cycle

 

ad lib

the pushme pullme phase alteration of the moon

an orbital pump

probably the strongest in the solar system

notice the void

that is real

more compex than this

 

Slide 20:  Lunar Orbital Cycles

Script For Slide 20:  Lunar Orbital Cycles

xxx edit

adlib

Perigee in blue:  constantly varying, with a 14 month cycle alternating between far Perigees (seen as small) and close Perigees (seen as large)

Full Moon in yellow: Full Moon vs New Moon

Declination in orange  The Saros Cycle

endless variations ranging from a few days to a 1000 years.

 

Slide 21:  Lunar Declination

Script For Slide 21:  The Lunar Declination

A word from an Earth Changes Sponsor.   Here is a plot of the Lunar Declination, as shown in the bright blue, juxtaposed with the Moon's distance from the Earth, which is shown in the navy blue spikes.  Notice the jagged edges, betraying lots of minor variations.   The angle of the orbit changes and the distance of the Moon (which is the Perigee cycle) also changes.  The combination of these two prime factors produces a great deal of variation in the influence of the Moon, ranging from a few days to regular weekly, monthly, annual, 18.6 year cycles, and even in cycles which can be plotted out for a thousand years.  On top of this we have the constant variations in the Lunar Phase.  The phase, full or new or inbetwixt, is  merely a definition of what side of the Earth the moon is on and how its gravity influence adds or subtracts from the sun. Together all of these variations change and  govern the Earth in profound and very complex ways.  

 

Why do I point this out to you?  We are at the top of the bright blue hump during 2007/08, then the declination slowly declines to a low level in 2015/16.  The question will arise is this: is the current trend of increased tectonic activity and global warming MERELY, the influence of Lunar Declination?  Since most of the great increase in quake activity in Southern California has occurred during the greater angles of declination, it is important to ask this question.

Later on I am going to make some predictions on the basis of this chart.

Now back to the quakes in Southern California

 

Slide 22: Projected Lunar Declination

Script For Slide 22:  Projected Lunar Declination

ad lib

 

 

 
Slide 23:  Second Time:  South Cal Quakes 2+ 1932-2007 With Cosmic Parallels

 

 

Script For Slide 23: 
Second Time:  South Cal Quakes 2+ 1932-2007 With Cosmic Parallels

 

The orange line represents the size of the Earth's Wobble. As the Earth spins it wobbles slightly.  Every 14 months there is a "spiral" in the wobble.  These spirals vary in size over a seven year period to create what I call the Wobble MAX and MIN spirals.  Can you observe that the three highest spikes of quake activity occurred during Wobble MIN spirals? The very highest spike occurred during a Wobble MIN which occurred during a relatively high declination of about 25 degrees.

 
Slide 24:  The Earth's Wobble

 

Script For Slide 24:  The Earth's Wobble

As we will see in later graphs, this pattern will appear again and again.  It turns out that the Wobble is one of the primary drivers of Earth's tectonic plates, along with the direct lunar influences. So let's get a very good image in mind of just what the wobble is.

 

This track represents the constantly changing exact location of the spin axis.  You read this graph in a counter-clockwise direction and the current location of the Spin Axis is at the end  of the green line which is dangling with nothing on it.

Instead of being a fixed pole, the spin axis  wobbles around in a small circle.  Modern technology can measure the exact location down to a few millimeters or so.  All GPS and military technology is based on these measurements, so this is measured with great accuracy. 

The outer edge of this spiral track is about 18 meters, roughly 50 feet in diameter. The inner-most brown circle is about 10 feet in diameter, roughly 5 meters   The wobble spirals around in a complete circle ever 14 months, creating a plot which is called the X Plot or the Y Plot when put on a time based linear chart.  On this chart the X Axis (vertical) is equivilent to Greenwich Meridian.  The Y Axis (horizontal) is Long. West 90.  The intersection in the center is the Geographic North Pole which was fixed at 1900.  This point is still used on the maps.  The difference in the Geographic North Pole and  true North Spin Axis is now about 40 meters.

What you see here is a complete seven year six spiral cycle of the Wobble (shown in brown and red),  plus one additional spiral for the current cycle.

 

 

Slide 25:  Wobble X Plot 1999-2007

 

Script For Slide 25:  Wobble X Plot 1999-2007

 

Here is what happens if you make the seven year spiral into a linear X Plot.  Notice the MIN waveform on each end and the highest peaks (MAX) in the middle.

 

Slide 26:  Wobble X Plot 1962-2007

 

Slide 26:  Wobble X Plot 1962-2007

 

This simple graph of the Wobble X Plot shows us seven Wobble cycles since 1962, when daily measurements were recorded in the world database for polar motion.  Counting from the beginning of the 20th Century, we are now in the early part of Cycle 19. 

Note that there is a clear sign of what may be a 50 year cycle in the size of the largest spirals in the Wobble.  If you look on the bottom of the plot, you can also see that there is a slow drift upwards in the wobble spirals.  This represents some of the long term drift of the wobble, or more accurately stated, the average location of the North Spin Axis.  Geophysicists call this True Polar Wander.  As the Wobble drifts upward in this chart, it is drifting toward England, or, otherwise stated, England is drifting towards the north.

If we plot only the highest point of the wobble for each year, we get the plot line for the Wobble X MAX, such as you saw on the Southern California quake chart.

 

Slide 27:  Drift In The Average Position Of The Spin Axis

At Wobble MIN

 

Script For Slide 27:  Drift In The Average Position Of The Spin Axis At Wobble MIN

 

This chart shows the overall drift of the Wobble since about 1913.  Prior to that, the wobble had hardly any net drift which was detectable from the coordinates  of Spin Axis location which had been recorded during the 19th Century. 

Each point on the chart more or less represents the average center point of a seven year spiral such as was shown on the Wobbletrack Chart.  For a variety of reasons, the smallest spirals were used to define these locations. 

What is the rate of drift?  That's a truly interesting question and it is a difficult one to answer on the fly. The IERS group uses the number 12 centimeters to define the average rate of the drift of the average location of the Spin Axis, but in fact the drift is not average, it is somewhat irregular and it has been accelerating throughout the past 100 years.  Based on this plot, at current time the rate of rift appears to be in the range of 16 centimeters per year.  It has been as high as 19 centimeters.

xxx edit

 

How do we account for the drift in the Spin Axis?  Trying to define in absolute terms a moving  vortex through a century of time is not easy.  Various mathematical methods can be used and each gives a different result.  If we compute the average position of the Spin Axis during the Wobble MIN phase, we get this plot.  I can't prove it but I think it is the best method of calculation?

This plot is based upon finding the moments when the Earth's spin is MOST stable and the least influenced by cosmic forces which are producing its wobbling motions.  When is the Earth MOST stable in the Wobble?  When is it is closest to its best balance, which is equivalent to wobbling the least. In other words, Wobble MIN phase is most likely the Earth at its best possible balance point. That point probably best defines the Earth's average Spin Axis every seven years.

As can be seen, we have a  view of the path of the Spin Axis down Long. West 90. We can see a few fits and starts.  And we can see that the rate of drift from stable point to stable point (MIN to MIN) has changed often during the past 112 years. As can be seen, most of the linear drift has occurred since 1948, and the greatest portion of this has occurred since 1958. Or, in other words, tectonic changes in the Earth have accelerated the most since 1958, the rate of change has varied from MIN to MIN, speeding up, then slowing down, then speeding up again.  Currently we are most likely on a rapid spurt but we won't know until we can measure the next MIN point in about 2013.

By now you are probably asking, what in the dickens does this have to do with global warming?  I don't blame you for asking.  It does seem we have gone off into an obscure tangent. 

I am sure you are not ready for the answer. You are looking dead on the plot of the prime terrestrial cause of Global Warming.

These tracts you have just seen, including the spirals, the X Plots, and this linear location plot are often spoken of as motion in the Spin Axis or the Poles.  It used to be called Polar Motion. But this is not correct.  It is like saying the Sun rises and sets during the day.  It doesn't', the Earth rotates.  It is well known that the Spin Axis scarcely moves at all. It is always oriented directly to the North Star.  It has a tiny variation in its orientation, called a nutation, which we can ignore.  These plots here represent the motion of the Earth's crust relative to its axis of spin.

As can be seen the Earth's crust is moving at a faster rate than during the first half of the 20th Century.

As the Earth wobbles, the location of the Spin Axis shifts and so does the Equator, by as much as 60 feet per year.  This seems like a small amount but it is like Archimedes Lever.  Give him a lever long enough and he could move the Earth, he proclaimed.  A movement of 60 feet at the North Spin Axis leverages out at the Equator with  sufficient force to crack the crust of the Earth in two down to the liquid mantle.

These changes force the Earth to shift its shape to accomodate centrifugal force.  It is like the coffee in the mug you are holding  as you turn a corner in your car.  The coffee must change its orientation to the side of the coffee mug.  For the same basic reason the Earth must change its shape.

This "shape-shifting" is accomplished by cracking the oceans apart in the Great Rift, so-called mid-oceanic ridges, and by inducing slippage between vast blocs of the crust, the so-called tectonic plates. The wobble then, is a vast pump which is simultaneously inducing expansion and  contraction in various parts of the Earth.  These forces in turn product earthquakes and volcanoes.
 

The location of the lever is progressively moving....every year....at a faster rate....

this is inducing new patterns of breakup in the crust, and new levels of breakup.

to some extent, the impact appears to be cumulative.

where this trend ends is anybody's guess, we have no idea.

 

 

Slide 28:  South Cal Quakes 2+ 1932-2007

Parallel With The Wobble X MAX & Lunar Declination

 

 

Slide 28:  South Cal Quakes 2+ 1932-2007 Parallel Wobble X MAX & Lunar Declination

 

With the basics of lunar declination and the Earth's wobble understood, we can return to Southern California and read the graphs of activity with much greater appreciation for the trend lines.

OUR CORRELATIONS:

In this simplified chart we can now see our most important correlations so far:

  1. Declination of the Moon's Orbit.  The lowest declination results in lowest levels of seismic activity in Southern California.  The higher levels of seismic activity tend fairly consistently  to occur during the highest declination levels.
     

  2. The Size of Earth's Wobble.  Greatest surges occur in Southern California when the Wobble is the smallest.
     

  3. These generalizations are only valid at this point for Southern California.  Other samples  of quake activity in various parts of the world show a combination of results, some parallel with these, some opposite.
     

  4.  No time to show all the regional charts, but in general, there does appear to be some correlation with the declination in the North Atlantic Great Rift, Eurasia, and the Aleutians/Atlantic.  As you go South, the connection appears to weaken.
     

  5. Variations:  Substantial.  These correlations are not 100% but they are well above 50%.  This just confirms what we alreadly know.  There are a lot of factors at play in the cosmic scene. 
     

 

Slide 29: Southern California Quakes 3+ Activity

Correlation With The Location Of The Spin Axis

 

Slide 29: Southern California Quakes 3+ Activity
Correlation With The Location Of The Spin Axis

It is clear enough that we can get some correlation with the seven year Wobble MAX cycle.  Is there a correlation with the motion of the crust as its wobbles around the  Spin Axis in 14 month spirals?  The answer to this is very complex.  Sometimes and/or some places yes, others not so much, yet others no.  But it is worth working with the concept. Look at this elegant connection in Southern California.  Here at the bottom of the wave in the X Plot we see two sudden  bursts of activity. Notice how symmetrically placed they are in timing with the X Plot.  Notice that the largest burst occurs during a week which has a Full Moon in Perigee (closest approach of the Moon to the Earth).  (The second pulse)

In this chart, the X Plot is LOW, or in negative numbers, which means that the Pacific Plate is riding as high to the North as in possible during this spiral round.  As it approaches its LOW point, the Pacific Plate is contracting as the Pacific Hemisphere attempts to flow over the North Spin Axis into the Atlantic Hemisphere.  Since the Earth is smallest at the poles, any motion of the crust towards the Spin Axis must result in the contraction of the crust.  When the crust flows towards the South, towards its Equator, it must expand.  It cannot move unless it does this, and we in fact know that it moves as much as 60 feet in less than a year during the largest spirals of the Wobble.

This contraction/expansion cycle is most likely the primary driver of motion in the tectonic plates. It is a major generator of quakes, volcanism, El Nino, and, ultimately, in the current cycle of Global Warming.

 In this most elegant of charts, the Pacific Plate and North America are contracting, most likely  differentially,  and their contractions produce a slippage in the fault zones of Southern California. Activity then stabilizes, the crust finishes contracting, reverses relative motion and begins to expand as it begins to flow to the Pacific Equator.  At very nearly the same location of the Spin Axis on the X Plot, another round of slippage occurs.  With the added separating or expanding power of the Full Moon pulling at 180 degrees from the Sun, on the opposite side of the crust, the slippage was substantially greater than the first round.

Southern California's tectonic activity may be comparatively staid, but it nicely reveals much.

 

 

Slide 30: Japanese Quakes 3+ 1963-1999

Slide 30: Japanese Quakes 3+ 1963-1999

On the other side of the Pacific, a little further north than California, we can check for how Japan responds to the Wobble.  Japan like California, is seismically active and Japanese have been monitoring and building professional databases of quake activity for many decades.  Thus the deep range in time and magnitude for this graph is probably valid for this area.

This chart measures the yearly totals on the right hand side scale, not a daily average

 As we can see, Japan also tends to sprout its largest increases in quakes activity during the Wobble MIN, though the correlation since 1994 appears to be obscured by interference.

Any up trend is also less obscure here.

Most of Japan's quakes are based on a direct tectonic plate collision between head-on vectors.  Eurasia to the Southeast against the  Pacific Plate to the northeast and against the Philippines Plate coming from the south.  This makes the activity substantially different than the slip fault system of Southern California.

 

Slide 31:  Japan Quakes 4+ Annual Average Daily

With Earth's Wobble

Script For Slide 31:  Japan Quakes 4+ Annual Average Daily With Earth's Wobble

So let's upscale into the higher quakes through 2006 and see what happens. A trend appears, as clear as a bell.

Please note that this is a larger area than the first one.

It seems we also have some correlation with the Wobble MIN, as in California

 

 

Slide 32:  World Quakes 4+ Annual Average Daily

With Declination & Lunar Wobble

 

 

Script For Slide 32:  World Quakes 4+ Annual Average Daily With Declination & Lunar Wobble

What happens when we upscale to the World Trend?

The correlation with the Wobble MIN is still there, though more difficult to pick out.

The correlction with Declination seems to have become, hmmmm, faint.

Is the influcence of declination averaging s out over the entire Earth, making the connection largely invisible?

 

Slide 33:  World Quakes 6+ Annual Average Daily

With Declination & Lunar Wobble

 

Script For Slide 33:  World Quakes 4+ Annual Average Daily With Declination & Lunar Wobble

 

Slide 34:  Annual Growth In Quake Activity

1979-2007

   

Slide 34:  Annual Growth In Quake Activity 1979-2007 

 

Slide 35:  World Quakes 4+ Exponential Growth Curve

1992-2034

Scripts For Slide 35:  World Quakes 4+ Exponential Growth Curve

1992-2034

 
 

 

Slide 36: Distribution of Quake 4+ Activity In The Pacific Rim

Slide 36: Distribution of Quake 4+ Activity In The Pacific Rim

 

 

 

 
 

 

 

Slide 37: Australian Quakes 4+ Average Daily Frequency

 

 

 

Script For Slide 37: Australian Quakes 4+ Average Daily Frequency 

 

Slide 38:  Volcanism On Northern Edge Of Australian Plate Parallel With Seven Year Wobble Cycle

 

Slide 38:  Volcanism On Northern Edge Of Australian Plate Parallel With Seven Year Wobble Cycle

 

 

 

 

Slide 39:  Volcanism In Japan Parallel With Seven Year Wobble Cycle

 

Slide 39:  Volcanism In Japan Parallel With Seven Year Wobble Cycle

 

 

 

 

 

Slide 40:  World Volcanism & El Nino Parallel

Slide 40:  World Volcanism & El Nino Parallel

The volcanoes along the subduction zones merely the tip of the iceberg. So I wondered if volcanism could play a role in El Nino

Reasoned underwater volcanism should parallel visible volcanism in any given zone.

world visible trend should parallel underwater trend

 

 

 

Slide 41:  Vanuatu Volcanism & El Nino Parallel

Slide 41:  Vanuatu Volcanism & El Nino Parallel

 

 

 

 

Slide 42:  Indonesian Volcanism & El Nino Parallel

Slide 42:  Indonesian Volcanism & El Nino Parallel

 

 

 

 

Slide 43:  El Nino & Seven Year Wobble Cycle

Slide 43:  El Nino & Seven Year Wobble Cycle

 

 

 

 

Slide 44:  La Nina & Seven Year Wobble Cycle

 

Slide 44:  La Nina & Seven Year Wobble Cycle

 

 

 

 

Slide 45:  El Nino Acceleration

Slide 45:  El Nino Acceleration

 

 

 

Slide 46:  Warming of the World Ocean 1955-1998 by Levitus

 

 

 
Scripts For Slide 46:  Warming of the World Ocean 1955-1998 by Levitus

 

Levitus et al - publishend in 2004

 

 

Slide 47: Sunspots, Earth's Surface Temperature, & World Heat Gain:  The Parallels

 

Slide 47: Sunspots, Earth's Surface Temperature, & World Heat Gain:  The Parallels

 

 

 

 

Slide 48: The Great Rift

Slide 48: The Great Rift

 

Truly ironic that NOAA's scientists coded the new zones with red.  These are the hottest spots in the bottom of the oceans. 

 

Slide 49: Known Volcanic Vents On The Ocean Bottom

Slide 49: Known Volcanic Vents In The Great Rift

 

Slide 50: Where The CO2 Is Rising

Slide 50: Where The CO2 Is Rising

 

Slide 51: The Heat Flux From Underwater Volcanism - A

Slide 51: The Heat Flux From Underwater Volcanism - A

 

 

 

 

Slide 52: The Heat Flux From Underwater Volcanism - B

Slide 52: The Heat Flux From Underwater Volcanism - B

 

 

 

 

Slide 53: The Heat Flux From Underwater Volcanism - C

Slide 53: The Heat Flux From Underwater Volcanism - C

 

 

 

 

Slide 54: The Heat Flux From Underwater Volcanism - D

Slide 54: The Heat Flux From Underwater Volcanism - D

 

 

 

 

Slide 55: The Greenland Ice Record Of Climate Change

Slide 55: The Greenland Ice Record Of Climate Change

 

 

 

Slide 56: The Vostok Ice Core Climate Record

Slide 56: The Vostok Ice Core Climate Record

 

 

 

 

Slide 57: The Medieval Warm Period & The Hockey Stick

Slide 57: The Medieval Warm Period & The Hockey Stick

 

 

 

 

Slide 58: The Nine Trends Which Are Changing The Earth

Slide 58: The Nine Trends Which Are Changing The Earth

 

THE END

 




 

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Slide 24: 

Slide 24: 

errata

WHAT PUMPS THE WOBBLE

What Pumps The Wobble?:  Most existing reference books have it wrong, wholly or in part, or incomplete, or misleading. Wikipedia is incoherent on the subject.  During recent decades, a school of thought has been pushing the idea that the wobble's variations and energy are primarily "weather induced".  This is simply not true.  Here is the answer provided by the observations and principles of Vortex Tectonics.  The observations described here are all easily observed in Graph XZY

Based on the size, shape and timing of the wobble cycle during the past 116 years, the most probable main source of energy for the wobble is the result of a complex beat function between the Earth's spinning crust, the orbital gravity fluctuations from Solar Perihelion/Aphelion and Lunar Perigee/Apogee, and elastic rebound in the crust of the Earth.  The Wobble is the result of a destructive interference with the natural free spinning state of the rotating Earth.  The sources of the interference are the Sun and the Moon. Variations in the pull of their gravity combine at certain times to pull the Earth's Wobble into a greater or smaller size.  Their orbital gravity vectors subtract various amounts of energy from the wobble on a regular cyclical basis.  By far the most important influence on the Wobble is the increased solar gravity which drags on the Earth's mass at Perihelion (when the Earth is closest to the Sun during the first week of January).

If the Earth were perfectly rigid, the wobble would take on this exact period and be locked mainly to the Earth's Perihelion cycle, with many variations created by additions and subtractions to the drag on the Earth which are caused by orbital variations of the Moon.  However, the largest fluctuation in the wobble is created by the elasticity of the Earth. 

The elastic nature of the crust and upper mantle resists the wobble period and, with the assistance of the Moon, each year delays the gravity-based solar cycle by nearly 60 days, basically by the length of  two lunar cycles.  This retards the timing of the return of the Spin Axis in its circular jig around the top of the Earth and draws the wobble spirals out into 14 month periods rather than 12 month periods.

Some additional energy transference, both additive and subtractive, comes from seasonal variations in the atmosphere and the oceans.  This transference is  probably in the range of 1% to 5%, perhaps as much as 10% when augmented by intense periods in the Solar Activity Cycle.

When the wobble's 14 month timing synchronizes the Spin Axis  with  Perihelion (in the period December/January) while on or close to the Greenwich Meridian, the wobble receives its greatest addition of energy. In the next two or three succeeding spirals, which fall progressively two months later in each succeeding year, the wobble continues to receive greater energy.

But when the Spin Axis returns to the Greenwich Meridian after the Summer Solstice, the wobble progressively shrinks for the next two to three spirals.  The length of the cycle is unaffected but it continues to shrink on each spiral. Finally a "low" or "null" moment of movement in the Spin Axis synchronizes once again with Perihelion as it wanders near Greenwich Meridian. This almost always occurs seven years after the beginning of the first spiral of the wobble.

Why Perihelion?  the orbital cycle and the daily spin of the Earth are most closely  paralleled and synchronized in their motions at this time.  Thus increased solar drag on the southern hemisphere can more easily increase the size of the wobble at this particular moment (which actually extends for close to six months).

More probable than not, this is likely a reflection of the well known fact that the Earth is slightly bottom heavy. Despite the large expanse of oceans in the Southern Hemisphere, this side of the Globe is slightly heavier.  A part of the reason for this heaviness most likely is the three miles of ice which are piled up on Antarctica.  So all vectors add up (or substract!) most strongly at this time to pull the motion of the Earth's surface into a larger wobble.

Why Greenwich Meridian? (Or close thereof)  That is a very good question, for which there is no good answer. But probably there is only one possible TYPE of answer. In the quadrant which is formed by the intersection of the Atlantic Hemisphere side of the Earth and the Southern Hemisphere, something there is.  Is the Earth's mass here greater than in all other quadrants.  Precisely why requires some serious science to find the answer.  The ice alone on Antarctica may answer this question.

When the wobble cycle rebounds off the elastic   

Correlations With The Wobble 7 Year Cycle:

Solar Activity (11 Year Sunspot Cycle): modest influence, perhaps 5-10% influence on the lagging edge of the 11 year cycle

Global Air and Water Circulation & Tidal Forces:  perhaps 1% to 5% influence, additive and subtractive.,

El Nino:  very strong, strong enough to infer that underwater tectonic activity is induced by the Wobble sufficient to produce El Nino heat flux.

Global Warming:  drift of the wobble

Southern Hemisphere: Strong connection revealed through the Greenwich Meridian; bottom heaviness of Earth involved in the wobble

 Perihelion:  Most important vector which pulls the wobble out

 Lunar Cycles:  Clearly involved, mechanics not incorporated into this material

Elasticity of Earth's Structure and Mass:  Rebound dampens and pulls the wobble cycle into exhaustion;

Tectonic Quantum Events: wobble oscillations create long term tectonic "quantum" motion events which progressively shape-shift the Earth through  dual action of Great Rift splitting and upwelling and Subsidence Zone downwarping.

 

 

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