Southern California Quakes 2+ With Seven Year Wobble X Max and Greatest Yearly Lunar Declination 1932-2007
portrait chart by MWM
model source: SCSN Catalog; SOUTHCAL_SCSN_2+_1932-present.xls by MWM
southcal_quakes2+_annual_wobble_declination_1932-2007.gif

Because of the length of this data series by the SCSN and the scientific effort which has been put into making this data series consistently accurate, this chart is important for whatever it reveals to us.  And what it does reveal is profound.  It takes us far past Simpleton 101 Earth Geophysics and demonstrates the truth of most of the correlations which have been revealed here and there in this Earthquake Storyboard.

We saw that we could not establish any consistent clear connections between earthquakes and  the cosmic frame by looking at All Quakes 4+.  But in this small regional zone we find a very clear correlation.  As we can see since 1968, when the Wobble is its MIN phase (smallest size), quake activity rises over the previous levels.  Sudden increases and even huge spikes of seismic activity clearly are phased consistently to certain moments in the seven year wobble cycle (when the wobble has nearly reached its minimum size).

The expanded scroll chart preceding this chart shows the timing of these huge surges in activity with considerable precision.

(repeat note about the 1980 gap)

There is a less clear connection with Lunar Declination within this framework of observation.  The degree of Lunar Declination varies yearly though an 18.5 year "Saros Cycle" which governs how the Moon's orbit intersects the Earth's.  The Declination is the measure of how "tilted" the Moon's Orbit has become, which ranges from 18 to 28 degrees.  Each month during any given year, the Moon rotates above and below the Equator by nearly the same amount, which slowly changes during the 18 year cycle from 18 to 28.   This chart measures this changing declination in the blue line.

One can see that there is very nearly repeating phasing between the Declination and the Wobble Cycle.  There appears in this chart two Saros cycles (37 months) for every six Wobble cycles (6.9 X 6 = 41  months)

count this on the big charts and define the math of this better.

But this phasing breaks down through time and comes out of phase???

This may have something to do with the apparent times of increased seismic activity as can be seen in the chart.  But this connection is fairly sloppy in this chart.  A much more sophisticated modeling effort would need to be made to establish confidence in this point.

A clear trend of increase during the 20th century

trend arising, activity coming in fits and starts at various times as predicted by edgar cayce

trend gradually emerging after 1958 as predicted by Edgar Cayce

the trend clearly apparent by 1998, as predicted by Edgar Cayce

activity level, though fallen off of previous highs, is maintaining at levels many time over the levels of 1958, as predicted by Edgar Cayce.

By comparing with the connection of activity spikes to the "phasing" of the Wobble MIN, it is quite obvious that a major spike of activity was or could be due very shortly.

If, however, we look at the expanded scroll chart to see the variables on a monthly basis, we could easily argue that the "major spike", based on past connections, should have occurred sometime during 2006 during which the Wobble was in its clear MIN phase, which is nearly always betrayed by considerable instablity in the shape of the waveform. 

So what are the qualifiers on this?  If this is a continuing trend which has resulted from long term tectonic acticvity, and if nothing has altered that trend, it is fair to predict that a major spike in seismic activity, including more likely than not a 6+ quake, should have occurred during 2006.  For all we know, it could possibly still occur during 2007.  Global charts suggest that the trend continues and we also have  Edgar Cayce who  predicts that we now are entering into a time period of a greater acceleration in tectonic activity.

From this, can we get more precise?  It is very difficult to do on on statistical ground. But it would appear that the weight of the evidence suggests that the next major spike in California seismic activity, including at least one quake 6+, will come in about seven years after the Wobble MIN of 2006, which will be in about 2013.  That does not preclude an occasional large quake occurring in the range of 5 to 6 between now and then.

Accordingly, Vortex Tectonics, looking only backwards at the past trends, could issue at least one scientifically validated prediction for the Southern California Area:  a major increase in earthquake activity will occur in approximately 2013, depending upon the timing of the current seven year wobble cycle (which can vary by several months).  When the Wobble (Chandler) Amplitude is at nearly its next lowest point in approximately 2013, quake activity will suddenly and dramatically increase.  This will include at least one destructive 6+ quake.

The problem with this is that the Change In The Earth is accelerating.  The Global Trend is changing everything and as the acceleration continues, the response in local tectonic zones, such as Southern California, is likely to shift as well.

This leaves us with the future as an open book of blank pages...

In this next chart, let's examine the future trend, at least so far as Excel's mathematics can show us.

Southern California Quakes 2+ Average Daily Frequency Linear Growth Plot 1932-2028
portrait chart by MWM
model source: SCSN Catalog; SOUTHCAL_SCSN_2+_1932-present.xls by MWM
southcal_quakes2+_annual_lingrowth_1932-2027.gif

The mathematics behind this linear projection is elementary Microsoft. 

Our current daily frequency is about 4 per day.  This chart suggests that on average the activity is depressed by nearly 50% as of July 2007.  Sometime in 2009, daily frequency should increase to about 10.  By about 2021, the average frequency will be about 11.  This is not a rapid up-escalator, but the activity will overall be five times greater than it averaged 80 years prior.  Between 2007 and 2021, we should see at least two major spikes of tectonic activity, possibly three, each with at least one major destructive earthquake at 6+. 

Since all the active areas on the western coast of North America is likely to respond to cosmic vectors and the Global Trend in much the same way, it is conceivable that the some forecast could and should be issued for The Bay Area and the Puget Sound region.

Southern California Quakes 2+ Daily With Wobble & Lunar Cycles 1973-2007
expanded scroll chart by MWM
model source: SCSN Catalog; SOUTHCAL_SCSN_2+_1932-present.xls by MWM
southcal_quakes2+_wobble_moon_expanded_1973-2007.gif

Now...

Notes:

1.  The "gap" in 1979 is a "hole" in the database, not a dearth of quakes

2.  The vertical scale of the X Axis waveform is generally not important.  What matters is the relative "phase (up or down) and the timing with the lunar cycles.

Now...

Southern California Quakes 2+ Size Comparatives & Cosmic Parallels With Average Daily Frequency 1932- 2007
portrait chart by MWM
model source: SCSN Catalog; SOUTHCAL_SCSN_2+_1932-present.xls by MWM
southcal_quakes2+_annual_comparatives_parallels_1932-2007.gif

Now...

South California Quakes/Month 1950-2000
landscape by SCSN, circa 2000
tb3_scsn_earthquake_total_1950-2000.gif

We can get an even better bead on the validity of the apparent trend by comparing what we have just learned with the chart below which was prepared by the Southern California Seismic Network at the turn of Century 21.

This chart counts the total quakes for each month listed in the SCSN catalog for the Southern California region from 1950 to 2000.  The count clearly shows that the number of listings grew dramatically from about 1970 through to about 1980.

Since 2000, monthly activity has increased another 50% and thus the SCSN staff as of 2007 are adding about 15,000 quakes to their catalog each month.  The data flows through nearly 3000 data channels from 375 stations.   This network is the premier leading light of science in this field and is in many ways a prototype of the kind of monitoring which needs to be vastly expanded.  The intensity, depth, and breadth of this network needs to be expanded to cover the primary active tectonic margins and Great Rift zones in the oceans.

This is of course a lot of activity for a small region, which is defined as between Latitudes North 32 and 37 and between Longitudes West 122  and 114.  The greater portion of this activity is not even in Class 2. There are items below Class 1 in the catalog and these even include events such as "quarry-blasts".

Notice the rise is activity from about 1970 to 1980. This rise we can attribute to "report inflation" caused by the decisions of geophysicists to list even the smallest of detected earthquakes (or at least the ones they had time to verify with other stations).  After about 1980, the quantity levels off.  Activity is a fairly constant plateau from which rise occasional high spikes caused by periods of what we can call "seismic storms".

The graph file (above) may not be  currently located at the site.  The graph should be replicated but so many events cannot be handled very well with Excel software.  Someone with university computing resources should make the effort.

The SCSN, which includes the USGS and Caltech as the principal sponsors, believes that as of 2003, the catalog for events 3+ is virtually perfected and provides a reliable linear record of such seismic activity.   This SCSN catalog can be accessed at http://www.data.scec.org/catalog_search.  A graph based on this profile of Class 3+ appears below and demonstrates a real trend in Southern California.

To bring the discussion of these charts to a conclusion, we have all in all reasonably good confirmation that the reporting of events into the quake catalogs had become stable for all class of quakes in Southern California by about 1980.  Most likely this stability was obtained in the ANSS catalogs for all Class of quakes above 2.0 from about 1990 at the latest.  It follow then, that any "apparent" trend since these dates is likely real. 

Map of Quakes In Southern California 1932-1996
mural by SCSN, circa 2007
EC Gallery name:  southcal_1932-1996_quake_map_scec.gif

image source: http://www.data.scec.org/general/socalcut.html

The Southern California Region, for which the graphs above and below are drawn, is displayed in this wonderful map prepared by the SCSN.  The red dots show all seismic events in their catalog.  Many of course overlap.  The yellow lines show the major freeways.   The while lines show state or international boundaries.  Nevada is in the upper right triangle, Mexico below the white line near the bottom.  The dark green area on the upper right is the lower end of the famed Central Valley of California, which supplies a stupendous portion of fruits, grapes, wines, and vegetables to North America and beyond.

These "red zones" are the main points of stress which are caused by the stress of collision between the Baja fragment of the Pacific Ocean Bottom and North America.

Southern California Quakes 3+  1933-1999
portrait by MWM, 1999
tb3_southern_cal 33-99_30plus_small.jpg
 

After establishing the validity of the general trend of increase,  I selected 3.0 as the minimum size to use.  I looked for specific  areas which had been intensively monitored professionally for a long period of time.  Two areas of the world, both highly prone to severely destructive quakes, qualified.  The first area selected was Southern California.  Quake activity 3.0 and greater has been religiously recorded since 1933.  This was a great find because it provides an historical time line free of distortions which is twice the historical length which can be established for the world database.   The question I was asking was, would we see a reflection of the world trend in this area?

Clearly we do see a trend.  It more or less knocks you over the head.  It establishes that the world trend in the first graph may not be very distorted.  And, it is very close to Cayce's dates.

Now...