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The Cosmic Matrix:

Correlations Between
Orbital Cycles, Earth's Wobble, & Earthquakes

By observing certain characteristics of world quake activity very carefully and correlating them with other events and data, we can deduce how in fact Geotectonics (physics of Earth's mechanical structure) works to produce the world we know.  From this systemic vision, we can also deduce what is causing major trends of physical change in today's world.

Table of Contents

xxx edit note:  pull these charts out into individual webpages when text analysis is complete.

The Moon, The Wobble, & Earthquakes: don't miss these stunning overviews of the main cycles & the emerging "Change In The Earth":

Condensed Overview: World Daily Quake Frequency  4+ 1973-2007
Correlated With Lunar Declination, Perigee, & Phase
contracted chart by MWM
quakes4+_daily_world_1973-2007_correlate_moon_orbit_dec_cycle_contracted.gif
model source:  ANSS database; world_quake_summary.xls by MWM

 

Earthquakes 4+, The Moon & The Wobble 1973-2007 In Condensed Plot
expanded scroll chart by MWM
quakes4+_daily_1973-2007_correlate_moon_wobble_condensed.gif
model source:  ANSS database; world_quake_summary.xls by MWM

 

The Lunar Cycle Paralleled With Earthquakes:

World Daily Quake Frequency 4+ 1973-2007
Correlated With Full Moon Cycle
expanded giant by MWM
quakes4+_daily_world_1973-2007_correlate_fullmoon_expanded.gif
model source:  ANSS database; world_quake_summary.xls by MWM
ends in the first week of January 2007

World Daily Quake Frequency 4+ 1973-2007
Correlated With Lunar Perigee & Full Moon
expanded giant by MWM
quakes4+_daily_world_1973-2007_correlate_moonorbit_expanded.gif
model source:  ANSS database; world_quake_summary.xls by MWM
ends in the first week of January 2007

World Daily Quake Frequency  4+ 1973-2007
Correlated With Lunar Declination, Perigee & Full Moon 
expanded giant by MWM
quakes4+_daily_world_1973-2007_correlate_mooncycle_expanded.gif
model source:  ANSS database; world_quake_summary.xls by MWM
ends in the first week of January 2007

The Earth's Wobble Paralleled With Earthquakes

World Daily Quake Frequency  4+ 1973-2007
Long Plot Paralleled With Earth's Wobble
landscape webpage chart
by MWM
quakes4+_world_correlate_wobble_expanded_1973-2007.gif
model source:  ANSS database; world_quake_summary.xls by MWM

World Daily Quake Frequency  4+ 1973-2007
Paralleled With Earth's Wobble - The Seven Year Spiral & Its Maximum Size
landscape webpage chart
by MWM; quakes4+_world_correlate_wobble+size_webpage_1973-2007.gif; model source:  ANSS database; world_quake_summary.xls

World Daily Quake Frequency  4+ 1999-2007
Short Plot Paralleled With Earth's Wobble
portrait
chart by MWM
quakes4+_world_correlate_wobble_expanded_1973-2007.gif
model source:  ANSS database; world_quake_summary.xls by MWM

World Daily Quake Frequency  4+ 1973-2007
Short Plot Paralleled With Earth's Wobble & Lunar Declination
portrait
chart by MWM
quakes4+_world_correlate_wobble_declination_1973-2007.gif
model source:  ANSS database; world_quake_summary.xls

xxx edit - missing chart World Daily Quake Frequency  4+ 1973-2007
Expanded Long Plot Paralleled With Earth's Wobble
expanded scroll chart
by MWM
quakes4+_world_correlate_wobble_expanded_1973-2007.gif
model source:  ANSS database; world_quake_summary.xls by MWM

World Daily Quake Frequency  6+ 1973-2007
Paralleled With Earth's Wobble & Lunar Phases
expanded scroll chart by MWM
quakes6+_daily_1973-2007_correlate_moon_wobble_expanded.gif
model source:  ANSS database; world_quake_summary.xls by MWM

Earthquakes 4+, The Moon With The Size Of The Wobble 1973-2007
expanded scroll chart by MWM
quakes4+_daily_1973-2007_correlate_moon_wobble_expanded.gif  
model source:  ANSS database; world_quake_summary.xls by MWM

 

 

Condensed Overview: World Daily Quake Frequency  4+ 1973-2007
Correlated With Lunar Declination & Perigee
contracted chart
by MWM
quakes4+_daily_world_1973-2007_correlate_moon_orbit_dec_cycle_contracted.gif
model source:  ANSS database; world_quake_summary.xls by MWM
ends in the first week of January 2007

The charts below are too spaced out to allow us the perspective by which we can see how the long Saros cycle synchronizes with the Perigee Cycle to affect tectonic activity in the form of  earthquakes.  So in the chart below, the Full Moon Cycle is pulled out and the entire chart compressed enough to permit the eye to scan several years at a glance.

One of the most obvious parallels which can be quickly grasped in the chart is that the smallest Perigee cycles of the year.

The Saros cycle is much more difficult.  This chart displays the highs and lows of lunar declination in the 18 year  Saros Cycle.  Look for the slow undalating fall and rise which floats on top of the orange peaks (declination angle) through an 18 year period.  This modulation is created by the lunar orbit slowly changing the angle at which the Moon orbits around the Earth.  This high peaks describe when the Moon rides up and down to nearly 29 degrees north and south of the Equator each month.  the low peaks describe when the Moon is riding only 18 degrees to the north and south.  The amount of the angle shifts between the two in an 18 year cycle called the Saros cycle.

As can be seen by scrolling the chart, there is no particular linear relationship between earthquake frequency and the 18 year Saros Cycle.  The escalation of quake activity from about 1994 through to 2007, which is quite easily perceived in the graph, encompasses both a Saros (or declination angle) MIN and and a Saros MAX.  The trend line of quake activity does not appear to parallel the shape of the 18 year Saros cycle.

On the other hand, by looking at the entire chart, one could argue that the trend line of quake activity appeared to accelerate into a new plateau during each Saros MIN phase.  Because of the length of the Saros Cycle, this connection easily could just be randomicity at work. Unfortunately, pursuing this thought requires sophisticated statistical analysis of a much longer series, at least back to the 1950's.

For the time being I am inclined to suspect that the 18 year Saros Cycle has no particular connection to the Global Trend.  The monthly peaks in the angle of declination above and below the equator, however, is an entirely different matter and should be pursued separately for specific tectonic regions.

 

 

Earthquakes 4+, The Moon & The Wobble 1973-2007 In Condensed Plot
expanded scroll chart
by MWM
quakes4+_daily_1973-2007_correlate_moon_wobble_condensed.gif
model source:  ANSS database; world_quake_summary.xls by MWM

 

World Daily Quake Frequency 4+ 1973-2007
Correlated With Full Moon Cycle
expanded giant by MWM
quakes4+_daily_world_1973-2007_correlate_fullmoon_expanded.gif
model source:  ANSS database; world_quake_summary.xls by MWM

We begin with a simple daily count of all quakes 4+ and display these against the backdrop of the Moon's monthly Full-New Cycle.  Since we are going to observe each day, we must expand our vision into another giant scroll chart.

 

 

quakes4+_daily_world_1973-200

What did you find?

Please write a five page term paper discussing any synchronicities you observed and submit it by midnight.

One finding is very difficult to define and has not been competently handled as science.  There is a definite clumpiness in the rise and fall of quake activity and the clumpiness seems to have a rhythm of  modulation which is similar to the rhythm of the Lunar Cycle.  But, there is enough seeming chaos or randomicity in the activity to make the pattern impossible to "pin" down.  Many of the greatest peaks are spot on the Full Moon day.  Some of the greatest peaks are spot on the New Moon day.  Many peaks, including large ones, appear at any point in the Full Moon Cycle.  Mathematicians, using no other reference information, can claim that it is mostly random, that there are no "windows" which determine the rise and fall of activity.   But still, there is the clumpiness which is reflective of a Lunar Cycle rhythm, which perpetuates the curiosity to find the connection behind the "syzygy windows", such as the work created by James Berkland.  The charts below this one will show you how the typical one-dimensional mathematics which is used to deny cosmic orbital factors is flat-land wrong.

 

World Daily Quake Frequency 4+ 1973-2007
Correlated With Lunar Perigee & Full Moon
expanded giant by MWM
quakes4+_daily_world_1973-2007_correlate_moonorbit_expanded.gif
model source:  ANSS database; world_quake_summary.xls by MWM

This next chart connects us with both the Full Moon Cycle and the monthly variations in its orbit which brings it closer to the Earth (Lunar Perigee) and farther away from the Earth (Lunar Apogee).

Average line added

 

Perigee size directly connects with the full moon in the following sequence

four small Perigees - the middle two which share the shortest apogee have preety much the same size of Perigee and are perfectly out of phase 180 with the Full Moon

two equi-size smallest perigees - transitional falling into phase

seven large Perigees  = are all in phase with Full Moon, three within hours, four within plus or minus 2 days.

two equi-size smallest perigees - transitional falling out of phase

ditto  - this pattern is pretty inelastic marches through the years in the same repeating pattern.  partly this rigidity is probably mathematical artifact of the emphermis builders.  the real moon probably is a tad more variable.

so the basic solar cycle is 15 lunations at 29 days each

which is of course, very nearly exactly one wobble cycle of 435 days

so one "earth year" is = 15 moons or 435 days

or in other words, the wobble is driven very rigidly by the Moon.

makes a every interesting, distinctive trend line.

one clear consequence:  the wobble cycle is not a solar cycle

but something must pump the moon...what is pumping the moon?

four largest Perigees each year have the least "surge" activity

the four smallest Perigees tend to have less surge activity than the four transistional perigees.

 

Now...

We will find out some additional things about this anomalous activity

This  occurred during one of the smallest possible Perigee and Apogee cycles (when the Lunar gravitational flux was the smallest). 

 

Now the next latest next chart

 

World Daily Quake Frequency  4+ 1973-2007
Correlated With Lunar Declination, Perigee & Full Moon; 
expanded giant by MWM
quakes4+_daily_world_1973-2007_correlate_mooncycle_expanded.gif
model source:  ANSS database; world_quake_summary.xls by MWM

Now we complete the Lunar orbit cycles (well, at least the main ones) by adding the distance of the Moon above or below the Equator, which varies significantly over an 18 year cycle called the Saros Cycle.

 

World Daily Quake Frequency  4+ 1973-2007
Paralleled With Earth's Wobble
landscape webpage chart
by MWM
quakes4+_world_correlate_wobble_expanded_1973-2007.gif
model source:  ANSS database; world_quake_summary.xls by MWM

This graph provides five hints of the connection between Earth's wobble, plate motion, and quake activity.  Enough can be seen to deserve a detailed statistical analysis.  One connection can be seen with the seven year rise and fall in the size of the Wobble (so-called Chandler Amplitude).  Quake activity has a similar humping or ~seven year modulation, though a little delayed. 

Another connection can be seen in the phasing of the greatest surges of earthquake activity with some (but not all) of the periods of the smallest size of the Wobble (X MIN).  A third parallel can be seen with the tendency of the greatest peaks of quake activity to occur during the lowest "valleys" in the waveform of the spiral.  These valleys are mathematically defined as -x numbers, which indicates that the North Spin Axis has wobbled its location as far from England as it can get, sometimes by as much as a few tens of meters, over into the "Pacific Hemisphere" side of the Earth.

A fourth parallel can be seen in the clear tendency of the rising trend of global quake activity to "step function" up during  the Wobble MIN phases and add permanently an accelerated level of activity.  This can be detected visually very nearly from the beginning of the graph in 1973.  This obviously occurred in spades during the last Wobble MIN phase of 2005/2006.

From all of this, one has strong evidence to argue that each seven year cycle in the Wobble has created an acceleration of the Global Trend.  After 1981, one can see visually that the Wobble "clumps" have shadow "clumps" of seismic activity.  As the Wobble gets bigger in size on average, the overall daily frequency appears to increase, on average.   There is however, some lag in the shadow effect.  And, this "shadow" cannot be seen 1973-198o

These parallels we can sense without numbers courtesy of the compressive qualities of the spreadsheet graph logic.  The Wobble spiral size is defined by the Polar X Axis Coordinate (nearly identical with Greenwich Meridian) in a daily series and is plotted directly with the daily earthquake frequency of all activity 4+.  The graph logic compresses the data for over 12,000 dates into this one page display and allows us to see the connections.

This is visually apparent enough to justify significant statistical analysis.  Can one define the "correlation co-efficient".  Can one define the "acceleration efficient", the amount of the acceleration of the Global Trend?  From this can one deduce an exponential growth curve?  Apparently so.  But doing so is NOT TRIVIAL and is beyond my mathematical skills.  One needs to compare two moving averages.  A moving average for quakes can be fairl....

 

World Daily Quake Frequency  4+ 1973-2007
Paralleled With Earth's Wobble - The Seven Year Spiral & Its Maximum Size
landscape webpage chart
by MWM
quakes4+_world_correlate_wobble+size_webpage_1973-2007.gif
model source:  ANSS database; world_quake_summary.xls by MWM

 

 

World Daily Quake Frequency  4+ 1999-2007
Paralleled With Earth's Wobble
portrait
chart by MWM
quakes4+_world_correlate_wobble_1973-2007.gif
model source:  ANSS database; world_quake_summary.xls by MWM

FIX THE DATES ON THIS CHART

 
This eight year graph gives us a snapshot of "the cleft" produced by the cartoid death/regeneration of the Earth's Wobble. It shows about NO activity for about a month centered around Perihelion and the Winter Solstice.   No wobble, no lateral tectonic motion, no quake activity above 4+.
 
If we drew charts for daily quake activity in the range of 2-3.99, we would see some seismic activity.  Unfortunately, the large numbers of such quakes for the entire world exceeds the linear limits Excel software.  The problem becomes very complex and time consuming and awaits another day for solution.
 
Other than the direct connection with the moving Spin Axis, the most notable correlation is that none is apparent between daily seismic frequency 4+ and the phasing or size of the Wobble in the moving Spin Axis.  At least, NOT IN THIS LIMITED TIME FRAME.  The two waveforms in this nine year chart appear to have no more than random connectivity, except for "the cleft".  In the 33 year plot lines (1973-2007), we could see that there is some correlation with the seven year cycle of Wobble size and the "clumping" of quake activity, but this nine year perspective fails to reveal it.
 
In our 4+ chart, we can also see a little of the progressive drift of the average location of the Wobble.  In the chart the shifting can be seen in the steady rise of the bottom troughs of the Wobble's "X" axis waveform.  The bottom troughs point towards the Pacfic.  As they move away from the Pacific, they Spin Axis is gradually shifting more towards the Atlantic Hemisphere.  More specifically, the Wobble is  literally shifting towards the eastern portion of the  Great Lakes.
 
This is forcing an equatorial shift as well, towards the north.  This effect is greatest at about 180 to 270 degrees of Longitude (circling only to the west), which is pretty much the area where some equatorial South Pacific Islands, notably the Tuvalu Islands, are reportedly "sinking".  These "sinking" islands are about eight degrees north of the Equator.   They are not sinking. Are they being flooded by Global Warming caused by carbon dioxide.  So far the world average rise in sea level is insignificant.  Is the water is rising because of the shifting locus of equatorial spin towards the north? The centrifugal force in the spin energy of the Earth, which is greatest at the Equator,  causes the ocean water to stack up slightly higher on and near the Equator.  Doubtless the ocean floors are spinning slightly "higher" as well. Is this why there is so much tectonic activity in the Equatorial Pacific clustered around 180 degrees (the international dateline)? Does this all connect together?
 
It definitely could.  The connectivity is not convincing enough at this point to reach much of any conclusion, but this direction is a lot more promising than carbon dioxide.

Below this chart is a much larger scrolling version of this same series from 1973-2007.  It might have a use but gaining perspective such as this is not it.

World Daily Quake Frequency  4+ 1973-2007
Paralleled With Earth's Wobble & Lunar Declination
portrait chart
by MWM
quakes4+_world_correlate_wobble_declination_1973-2007.gif
model source:  ANSS database; world_quake_summary.xls by MWM

World Daily Quake Frequency  4+ 1973-2007
Paralleled With Earth's Wobble
expanded scroll chart
by MWM
quakes4+_world_correlate_wobble_expanded_1973-2007.gif
model source:  ANSS database; world_quake_summary.xls by MWM

This may be of use somehow.  It simply expands the chart above to bring perspective down into nearly a monthly view.  In this view, the connection of earthquakes with the rhythm and phasing of the wobble is fairly well lost.  This is the perspective most people have.

this chart is missing xxx edit -does it matter?

 

 

World Daily Quake Frequency  6+ 1973-2007
Paralleled With Earth's Wobble Size & Lunar Phases
expanded scroll chart
by MWM
quakes6+_daily_1973-2007_correlate_moon_wobble_expanded.gif
model source:  ANSS database; world_quake_summary.xls by MWM

 

 

 

Earthquakes 4+, The Moon With The Size Of The Wobble 1973-2007
expanded scroll chart
by MWM
quakes4+_daily_1973-2007_correlate_moon_wobble_expanded.gif  
model source:  ANSS database; world_quake_summary.xls by MWM

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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