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Return To Earthquakes Storyboard Japan & East
Asia Outline
Definition of "Tectonic Zone" for "Japan & East Asia": This region is defined to truly describe a real tectonic zone to replace the national boundaries and human settlements which are generally used by government agencies and their supporting academic circles. All of Northeast Asia is included, from Latitude North 75 to North 24 and from Longitude East 115 to 180. This includes the entire tectonic subduction zone which runs from the Kamchatka Peninsula through the Rykyos Islands and through the various Japanese Islands down through Taiwan. A good potion of eastern China is also included as well as Eastern Siberia. This entire region is most likely to respond in parallel to the same tectonic force vectors and shape-shifting waves in the Earth. The earthquakes are mostly arising from compression and subduction movements, the greater part of which is produced by nearly 180 degree opposition between the southeast motion of Eurasia and the northwest trending motion of the Pacific Ocean Plate. Two expanding Ocean Rifts are generating the motions: The North Atlantic Rift (under various names) is pushing Eurasia to the northeast. The East Pacific Rift is pushing the Pacific Ocean Plate to the northwest, which subducts under Asia. The rise and fall of quake frequency, REPEATEDLY, in all magnitude classes since the early 1990's for this area can be plainly seen. The tendency of all classes to rise and fall together suggests report inflation is not a factor. (See Class Parallels below). However, the comparison of various magntitude classes suggest that there may be an under-reporting problem for the Class 2 quakes. These observation for this area and time frame parallels most other zones and time frames (not including the under-reporting issue). See other sections of the Earthchanges Gallery to test the power of this generalization. These facts suggest that the counts have been made consistently by the creators of the ANSS Composite Catalog at UC Berkeley for all quakes of Class 2 and above for at least since 1991. This argument can be advanced in many cases for time frames which begin in the early 1970's but not necessarily for Japan. xxx edit - incomplete |
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Japan & East Asia Quakes
2+ Daily With Wobble 1991-2007 This plot includes all quakes of Class 2+ for ~15 years. A careful examination of the frequency of seismic events in Class 2 and over since 1991 will suggest to any observer that there is little to NO report inflation in this series. Accordingly, this chart, and all others on this web page, from January 1991 to approximately the end of May 2007, gives us an objective vision about the tectonic activity of Japan & East Asia. at least for all activity in Class 3+. Many geophysicists will tell you that there is no apparent trend of increase in earthquake activity. Look at this data series. What do YOU think? |
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I would characterize this chart, and the others below, as revealing several episodes of major "seismic storms" where the peak level of activity is several times the general average. These episodes rise from a baseline of activity which appears to slowly "step" up to slightly higher plateaus of average activity every few years. Take another look. Relative to the Wobble motion waves, when do the spikes in activity tend to occur? I would characterise the relationship in this way: the last two times when the Wobble is in MIN phase (this phase can be discerned in this chart two times when the Wobble waves are drawn out and shallow to indicate that the Wobble spiral is very small) the two largest spikes for the total period occur. Almost all the other spikes in activity occur when the Wobble is in its X LOW phase, or in other words when the X Axis number (not shown on this chart) is negative, indicating that the location of the Spin Axis is in the Pacific Hemisphere as far away from England as it can get. At this recurring "moment" in the Wobble (every 14 months) the crust of the Earth (esp. the Pacific Ocean Plate) is moving up to the north over the Pacific Equator and up against the Northern Arc of the Pacific Rim. We may not be able to predict the exact occurrence of any specific quake, but this chart clearly demonstrates that the windows of greatest probability can be defined. Notes: 1. The Wobble X and Y Axis plots are offset vertically by intent to ease the eye and give the mind an easier time at grasping the phasing connections with quakes. One is not bigger than the other and in fact, literal "size" exactness on the vertical is not important. All the importance is on the horizontal scale and the connection with the up or down phases of the waveforms. |
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Japanese Quakes 3+
1963-1999 The second area tested was Japan. Like scientists in California, scientists in Japan watch every tremor in Japan like a hawk and have been faithfully recording since the advent of the seismograph as a scientific tool.
The trend is clear. Perhaps not dramatic, but definite. From a baseline of a little under 300 per year on the low side, quake activity in Japan since 1980 had moved up to over 700 per year by 1999. This chart was originally composed for the Return of the Phoenix in 1999. This chart has also been vigorously transformed and updated on a web page for Japan & East Asia. A copy is presently directly below. It will also be published in the 2008 edition of the Return of the Phoenix.
Japan & East Asia
Quakes 2+ Annual Daily Average 1991-2007 The following chart gives Japan & East Asian quake activity to you in one small compressed chart of average annual figures. This chart and the remaining charts in this portion of the storyboard on earthquakes frankly destroy some of the illusions under which many geophysicists mis-think and mis-speak.
Is the trend of increase more objectively obvious now? Or is just an illusion created by a random spike in activity during 2006? Take a look at the next trend line for the period 1973-2007.
Japan & East Asia Quakes 4+ Annual Daily Average 1973-2007 If we look at only the larger quakes of Class 4+ and plot the series back nearly 18 years earlier, this is what we see:
This chart expands the time frame for Japan but narrows the phenomenon. It runs from 1973 to 2007 with only 4+ quakes counted. We can see a threefold trend clearly apparent. From an average of 2 quakes per day in 1973 (Class 4+ quakes), we see a progressive rise to near 7 quakes per day by 2006. In the "World Trend" web page we saw the same general type of trend, bringing quake activity up at least three times over the levels of 1973. Once again we see a clear trend of increase during the 20th century. As predicted by Edgar Cayce during the 1930's, we see a trend slowly arising, activity coming in fits and starts at various times, the trend clearly apparent by 1998, as predicted by Edgar Cayce, with an elevated activity level from which suddenly has arisen an even greater frequency of change after 1998, also as predicted by Edgar Cayce. We also found in the world trend charts that we could not establish any consistent clear connections between earthquakes and the cosmic frame by looking at All World Quakes 4+. But in this small regional zone we can see at least a partial correlation with the Wobble. The correlation is not perfect but there is a tendency. As we can see since 1973, when the Wobble is its smallest sizes, near MIN, quake activity tends to rise higher than when the Wobble is in its MAX phase. This is most apparent in the huge spike of seismic activity during 2006 when the Wobble was in its minimum size. This huge spike of activity is anomalous, minimally a 50 year event singularity, and it reflects the same anomalous spike in activity which can be seen in many regions of the Earth. |
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The chart shows us that there may be some connection with Lunar Declination but this framework of observation does not help us define it. This chart measures the changing declination in the pale orange line. The degree of Lunar Declination varies yearly though an 18.5 year "Saros Cycle" which governs how the Moon's orbit intersects the Earth's. The Declination is the measure of how "tilted" the Moon's Orbit has become, which ranges from 18 to 28 degrees. Each month during any given year, the Moon rotates above and below the Equator by nearly the same amount, which slowly changes during the 18 year cycle from 18 to 28. We can clearly see that many spurts of seismic activity occur on either peak. Is this just random? To decide this issue will require very sophisticated statistical analysis. The chart below (Cosmic Parallels) provides a better overview. The declination is shown by the blue line, total quakes by the black line. Instead of looking at each monthly cycle, we are looking at the amount of average declination for each year. A definite correlation seems to appear in this chart. Random connection? Think below. How about Perigee and Lunar Phase (Full Moon Cycle)? We can't discern much about the issue of Lunar Phase in this framework. The visual field simply doesnt' work for this us with the degree of scattered detail which is in this chart. Whatever the correlation is, it is probabilistic and far from 100%. One must go to pure number crunching for statistical correlations. There is one interesting pattern which is apparent on this chart which is counter-intuitive and well worth a serious investigation by statistical profilers. It appears here, and in other tectonic zones, that the greatest spikes of activity tend more often than not to occur during the smaller Perigees of the year. Perigee, of course, is the moment when the Moon is as close at it gets to the Earth during any given monthly orbit. It turns out that the "closeness" of the Moon has a cycle of its own, which is about 15 months in length. As one looks at the magenta wave form for Perigee, one can easily see that the waveforms have a regular increase and decrease in their size during each year. Why do the greater number of "seismic storms" occur during the smaller Perigees? The gravity influence of the Moon is more moderate on the Earth during these smaller Perigees. Isn't this a less likely time for quakes to occur? Apparently not. I believe that this is an important issue for the Earth Sciences. Notes: 1. The vertical scale of the X Axis waveform is generally not important. What matters is the relative "phase (up or down) and the timing with the lunar cycles. 2. The high peaks for the declination cycle are what is called the "Lunar South Node", the moment every 28 days when the Moon is as far south of the equator as it can get. Conversely, the low troughs of the declination cycle are the Lunar North Node. |
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Copyright 2007, MWM, all rights reserved
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