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Return To Earthquakes Storyboard Eurasia
Abstract Earthquake activity in western and southern Eurasia (exclusive of east Asia and Japan) is profiled on this web page through six major trend graphs, including two giant scroll charts which permit monthly examination of quake activity in the context of orbital cycles. For the broad east-west belt of the Himalayas through Asia Minor and into the Mediterranean to Spain, including all points north to Latitude North 75 (the Arctic Ocean), quake activity 2+ 1991-2007 nearly doubled in frequency. Quake activity 4+ nearly tripled in activity during 1973-2007. These activity profiles are analyzed and compared with orbital variations in the cycles of the moon and a strong .69 correlation between average annual quake frequency and lunar declination (angle of the Moon's orbit relative to the Earth's equator) is presented. Other observations related to the Earth's Wobble are also presented. Outline
1. There is a clear, threefold tend of increase from 1973-2007 in the frequency of earthquakes of magnitude 4+ on Eurasia. See Eurasia 4+ 2. There is a clear, tend of increase from
1991-2007 in the frequency of earthquakes of magnitude 3.0-4.99
on Eurasia. From an annual average of about 12 quakes/day
in 1991, 2007 levels rose by 67% to about 20 quakes per day with
an average daily deviation of about 7.
See Eurasia 2+ Cosmic Parallels.
3. For quakes 5+, the trend line is flat, no apparent and no projectable trend is present. 4. There may be a similar increase in magnitudes 2.0-2.99 but a a strange database anomaly appears in the ANSS database for western and southern Eurasia (excluding the eastern "Pacific Rim" edge. Quakes 2.00-2.49 largely disappear from the database after 2004. See Eurasia 2+ Cosmic Parallels. There is also a decline during the same period for 2.5-2.99 quakes but it is not nearly as severe. This anomaly is unique among all the zones and magnitude classes. It is probably a "reporting" issue, not a true geophysical anomaly.
5. There is no observable "report inflation" issue in Eurasian
quakes 2+ since 1991.
See Eurasia 2+. There
may be some relatively small amount of report inflation from 1973 to
1991. As discussed above, there probably is a "disturbance
in the database" for small quakes magnitude Class 2 from 2004-2007 which
may be the result of "report deflation" in these magnitudes. This
"report deflation" may be reducing the trend lines and the value of the
correlations for all profiles which have been drawn up for all quakes
2+. 6. Because of this disappearing act, we cannot project forward on the basis of 2+ magnitudes. We are forced to exclude all below 2.5. See Eurasia 2+ Cosmic Parallels. Accordingly, for all quakes 2.5+, the annual average daily frequency in 2007 is about 20/day rising exponentially on a long curve to 23/day sometime in 2009 and to 36/day by about 2021. See Eurasia 2+ Growth Plot. This is not a rapid trend but quake activity by 2021 will be about five times greater than it averaged 80 years prior. 7. Based on correlations and parallels with the cosmic frame (EMS system) we are likely to see, between 2007 and 2021, at least two major spikes of tectonic activity, possibly three, each with at least one major destructive earthquake at 6+. 8. For quakes 4+, there is a clear phasing of major increases in annual average quake activity with the Wobble MIN phase. See Eurasia 4+. When the Wobble is at its lowest (MIN phase), as is shown in the valleys of the Wobble X MAX curve, quake activity tends to suddenly rise in a steep increase. This increase has gotten progressively larger. Since the last peak of activity began during 2003, the surge has swamped out the previous parallels, making the period 2003-2007 anomalous with the period 1973-2002. 9. Correlation of Lunar Declination With Annual Average There is a decided connection between the angle of the Moon's orbit around the Earth and the annual average daily count of earthquakes. A modest but definite correlation of 0.67 exists between the annual average daily quake count and the angle of the Moon's orbit relative to the Earth's equator. This angle of declination varies between 18 to 29 degrees, the larger it is, the more quakes tend to occur, the smaller it is, the less. See Eurasia 2+ Cosmic Parallels The small table below describes the correlation for the period 1991-2007. << correlation per
magnitude >>
Note also that the hint of a "bell curve' appears quite strongly in this table. The greatest number of quakes are in Class 3, and this class has both the strongest growth curve and the strongest correlation (0.76) with the declination. The degree of correlation falls off as the magnitude decreases or increases. Notice that the greatest quakes have a negative correlation during this time period. All this of course hints strongly that multiple factors are at work in the generation of quake activity. This "hint" justifies a sophisticated application of statistical analysis and profiling of the entire world database(s) of earthquakes by true masters of the art. Getting all the co-variant factors and their correlations lined up "in a row" is probably the best method for eventually defining well qualified high probability "windows" for quake frequencies and magnitudes. These windows may eventually have ten times the current predictive power of simple orbital "syzygy windows" or using one-dimensional historical frequency rates. 10. A projection of the trend in Eurasian quakes 2+ on the basis of the correlation with Lunar Declination can be crudely estimated. Lunar Declination is currently near its most extreme angle with the Equator. Each year for approximately the next nine years the angle will continue to decrease down to the minimum declination of 18 degrees. The .69 correlation between frequency of quakes and lunar declination suggests at least a relative diminishment in the growth trend, or even an absolute diminishment on average, during the next nine years. The diminishment in the trend will reach bottom in 2016 and then will rise again during the succeeding nine years, reaching a peak rate once again in approximately 2025. If the earthquake databases were more mature with richer statistical profiles, if might be possible to hazard some actual trend numbers and peak windows throughout this time frame. However, the depth of the databases, most of which have a consistency of only about 35 years, with many "missing" profiles, probably will make such an exercise pretty marginal for the next 20 years. It is better to focus the attention on profusely wiring and recording Eurasia. 11. Lunar Phase Correlations A simple Full Moon correlation formula yields a neutral or slightly negative correlation. This may confirm mathematically what can be seen visually. Quake frequency tends to "clump" and "spike" around both extremes of the Lunar Phase Cycle, during both New Moon and Full Moon. This effect, which appears identical to the monthly cycle in ocean tides, suggests that the idea of land tides can be used to explain the primary Lunar influence on the Earth's crust. The biweekly clustering of quakes cancels out the correlation with just one point in the four week Phase cycle. Not being much of a mathematician, I have not figured out a way around this impasse. Consider these correlations below. We can infer from these numbers that the frequency of quakes is slightly higher during the New Moon phase than during the Full Moon phase, but the Full Moon phase will generally tend to get slightly more Class 5+ Quakes. Correlate Full Moon With Quakes
12. Other Correlations: The same simple Excel correlation equations do not yield results much beyond neutral for the wobble and perigee series. All correlations discussed here use the Excel formula similar to this: =CORREL(B$6596:B$12438,'Ephem_1973-2012'!$F$6596:$F$12438) 12. Average Deviation In Daily Count: Based on the following table, the range of daily quake activity in Eurasia as of 2007 is about 14-27.
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Notes: 1. The Wobble X and Y Axis plots are offset vertically by design to ease the eye and give the mind an easier time at grasping the phasing connections with quakes. One is not bigger than the other and in fact, literal "size" exactness on the vertical is not important. All the importance is on the horizontal scale and the connection of quake activity with the up or down phases of the waveforms. 2. The expanded scroll chart shows the timing of huge surges in activity with considerable precision. 3. There does not appear to be any observable consistent correlation with the 14 month wobble spiral waveform. But see the simplified chart with the X MAX below.
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Eurasia Quakes 2+ Annual Daily Average 1991-2007 The following chart gives it all to you in one small compressed chart of average annual figures. This chart and the remaining charts in this portion of the storyboard on earthquakes frankly destroy some of the illusions under which many geophysicists mis-think and mis-speak. It is said that there are no trends in earthquake activity. What do you think about earthquake trends in Eurasia?
Even without mathematical analysis, it appears that a clear trend of increase is present during the past 17 years, activity coming in fits and starts at various times as predicted by Edgar Cayce during the 1930's. Eurasia, the western and southern portions which are measured in this chart, is substantially less active than its eastern edge. The long north-south edge of the eastern end of Eurasia forms the Western Arc of the Pacific rim. This eastern region, which the Earthchanges Storyboard breaks into four zones, is several times more active in total than shown above. Most of the trend of increase in the Earth is found along the Western Arc of the Pacific Rim. Though it is not detectable in this graph, the graph of comparisons below reveals that quakes below 2.5 begin to disappear in 2003 from the ANSS database (when this chart was made) and are missing entirely after 2005. This is almost certainly not "real", it is most likely an artifact of the reportage of quake activity on Eurasia. Among the various zones and analytic charts on display in the Earth Changes Gallery, this is the only instance in which such an artifact appears. This requires investigation to doublecheck the integrity of the databases. If the missing magnitude class was added in, averaging about 9 quakes per day, the total trend in 2006 would be substantially stronger, to about 30 quakes per day.
Eurasia 4+ 1973-2007
Annual average daily count This chart biases our view to only the larger 4+ quakes, where reportage is far more likely to be (a) recorded in the world databases, (b) consistently. In this chart we see of course a general up-trend. The average plot line for this trend is displayed in the chart below. This chart has the great value of displaying many variations up and down. Such variations allow us to look for correlations with other fluctuating phenomenon and cycles. We saw that we could not establish any consistent clear connections between earthquakes and the cosmic frame by just looking at All World Quakes 4+. It was impossible to spot any correlation with the 14 wobble spirals in the scroll chart above. Can we do better with this chart? In this compressed chart for this regional zone we find what smells of a tantalizing hint of a correlation between the rise and fall of earthquake activity and the seven year cycle in the size of the Wobble (so-called Chandler Amplitude). But the attempt to define it dissolves in contradiction and mathematical formulas yield close to a zero correlation. What is the hint we can see? When the Wobble is its MIN phase (smallest size), quake activity rises over the previous levels. Looking at the chart as a whole, the major turns in the trend line all occur at nearly the Wobble MIN. Sudden increases and even huge spikes of seismic activity are also phased consistently to these moments of minimum size in the seven year wobble cycle. But note also the small peaks in activity very near or at the X MAX phase. It would seem to confuse the correlation and indeed mathematically they do destroy it And note the huge anomalous increase in 2005, then a small down step, and then another increase to drown out the entire Wobble MIN phase, beginning with the most previous Wobble MAX. Why is there a phasing of an increase in quakes during the Wobble MIN? Why the anomalies? This is a profoundly important question for which the Storyboard has no answer. Here is my best speculation so far: during the Wobble MIN, the loaded stress vectors in the Earth's crust "relax". If so, this may mean that a major portion of quake activity results from the flow of "relaxation" in the crust. This is of course contrary to the notion that it is built up stress which "breaks" the faults into motion. This is an interesting thought which deserves serious study. It completely shifts the perspective on how to look at what is happening in the Earth's crust. Now the relationship of course is more complex than this simple idea. As we can clearly obverse, the trend line of quake activity rose out of some of the Wobble MIN valleys in very close parallel with the increasing size of the Wobble. When the Wobble as defined on the X Axis is increasing in size, Eurasia is being thrust both higher towards the Spin Axis and lower to the Equator every 14 months. This produces a steadily increasing "pumping" cycle of contraction (when higher) and expansion (when lower). The trillion dollar question for the Earth Sciences is: does this pumping action induce the sudden jumps in quake activity which can be seen in graphs such as this one. The giant scroll chart below provides some clues about this.
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Correlations In This Chart: 1. It is difficult to detect a correlation with the Saros Cycle in this chart. See the next chart. 2. It is difficult to detect any significant correlation with either monthly Perigee or the 14 month cycle in the size of the Perigee. 3. There is obviously a parallel with the Lunar Cycle. As in all regions of the Earth, the rise and fall in quake activity has various frequency components which share a common modulation which is about the length of the lunar phase. Peaks and valleys in activity do not consistently correlate, but a strongly recurring, reappearing two week and four week modulations in the "clumps" of activity are self-evident. The data requires sophisticated mathematical modeling, not lackadaisical remarks from geophysicists who refuse to become conscious of the cosmic frame. 4. There is a consistent though less than perfect correlation with the low point in the 14 month spiral cycle of the Wobble. Spikes and flurries of activity can occur at any time, as is abundantly clear. And they appear most often in the greatest frequency and in the longest durations during the "valleys" or "lows" of the Wobble trend line. The trend line defines the location of the Spin Axis on the (X Axis) relative to England (Greenwich Meridian running through England = the X Axis). When the "valleys" or "lows" reappear every 14 months, it means that England is slightly further to the south of the Spin Axis. And, it also means that all of western and central Eurasia has moved slightly to the south towards the equator and the Pacific has moved slightly to the North. In geophysical terms, when the Atlantic/Eurasian side of the Globe travels south towards the Equator, this portion of the crust expands and greater number of quakes occur in Eurasia. The opposite effect of course is created when the Atlantic/Eurasian crust moves north during the peaks in the Wobble trend line. Unfortunately, the correlation formula in Excel does not produce a mathematical result which defines this pattern. 5. Combining this intelligence about the Wobble spirals with the "declination correlation" (see chart below) gives us a conceptually well defined "window". Quite evidentlyEurasia quakes the most when it is "expanding", and even more so when lunar declination moves its orbit to its 18 year extremes to ride 28 degrees above and below the Earth's equator at some point every month for a few days. 6. What a perfect timing to expect to see East Asia also explode into greater activity. 7. Not, of course, that this is the only game in town. Quake activity does also appear randomly vis a vis the cycles in the cosmic frame. 8. The relationships displayed in this chart, or any portion of it, could be studied from many angles. There may be important discoveries to be made in this kind of minute examination and comparisons with real world and real cosmic events. Technical Notes: 1. Declination of the Moon: angle of tilt of Moon's monthly orbit around the Earth. It varies, most significantly in the 18.5 Saros cycle. For more information, see the Saros Cycle on the Storyboard for the Planets. In this chart the angle of declination varies from 18 to 29 degrees (equivalent to Latitude) above and below the Equator over a period of 18.5 years. The Southern Hemisphere angle is shown on the top half of the chart, the Northern Hemisphere is shown on the bottom of the chart. In any given lunar orbit (each month), the angle will be almost the same in both hemispheres. The degree of Lunar Declination varies yearly though an 18.5 year "Saros Cycle" which governs how the Moon's orbit intersects the Earth's. The Declination is the measure of how "tilted" the Moon's Orbit has become, which ranges from 18 to 28 degrees. Each month during any given year, the Moon rotates above and below the Equator by nearly the same amount, which slowly changes during the 18 year cycle from 18 to 28. This chart measures this changing declination in the blue line. 2. Monthly Perigee: There is a 28 day cycle in the distance of the Moon from the Earth. It's shortest distance is called Apogee, when the Moon's gravity influence is smaller than normal, and it's longest distance is Perigee, when the Moon's gravity influence is stronger than normal. The monthly variation in the Moon's influence can be as high as about 20%. On average, the Moon's gravity vector is about equal to the Sun, as experienced on Earth. Thus a 20% change is a very large fluctuation in the ambient "flux" of the cosmic environment. This fluctuation alternatively adds to the Solar vector (New Moon) and subtracts from it (Full Moon). 3. Perigee Cycle: There is a 14 month cycle in the size of the Perigee Cycle. In other words, the amount of monthly variation in the distance of the Moon from the Earth increases for about seven Perigees and then decreases for about seven Perigees. 5. Wobble 14-Month Spirals: (as defined by the X Axis recorded by IERS) The Spin Axis slowly wobbles in a spiral which travels around its average location. The Wobble takes about 14 months (the length varies slightly) to return to its previous Longitude location. The Wobble spirals are plotted on a special IERS formatted XY Plot. X Axis = Greenwich Meridian; Y Axis = Long 90. X Low = negative numbers, or the lowest dips in the X Plot. X High = positive numbers, or the highest peaks in the X Plot. 4. Wobble MAX or MIN phase: The size of the Wobble's spirals vary in a seven year cycle, thus the wobble is greatest in size (MAX) every seven years and smallest in size every seven years. The Earthchanges Storyboard generally refers to "Wobble X MAX" to indicate that the size of the Wobble has been taken for any given year from the largest positive number in the IERS X Axis plot numbers for that year. Because of a slow drift in the average location, this is not a mathematically perfect solution to the exact size of the wobble for any given year. It is. however, simple and easy and it appears to work well enough to find correlations. Because of the spiraling nature of the wobble, simple averaging does not work. Seeking perfection beyond this requires the assistance of a professional mathematician. 5. The exact vertical scale of both the X Axis Plot and the Wobble X MAX Phase waveforms are generally not important. What matters most is the relative "phase" (up or down) and the timing with lunar and other cycles. |
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Eurasia Quakes 2+ Size Comparatives & Cosmic Parallels With Average Daily
Frequency 1991-2007
For meaning of technical terms, see the preceding panel. This graph provides a useful table for defining the average daily quake frequency in various magnitude classes along with a sense of their shifting trend lines in time. The black line sums them all and demonstrates the long term Change in the Earth. On Eurasia, quake frequency has nearly doubled during the 16 year interval of 1991-2007. Correlations In This Chart: 1. Declination: In this compressed overview chart, there is most obviously a clear correlation between the annual daily average and the Saros Cycle. The correlation calculates out through Excel CORREL at an impressive .69. In 1997, Lunar Declination was at its lowest, 18 degrees. Average quake activity dipped to its lowest since 1991. This decline could be seen in all Magnitudes except 5+, which remained on more or less the same flat line rate it is on today. Since then many magnitude classes have increased in frequency practically every year while the angle of declination steadily increased. Quakes 5+ are still flat line, Quakes 2-2.49 increased but then disappeared (lack of database entry) completely, Quakes 2.49-2.99 increased and then declined somewhat (?). Quakes 3-4.9 increased significantly. If the "report" problem with the small quakes could be resolved for the period 2004-2007, the trend line and correlation might well be much stronger. Possibly the increase in the Class 3 and 4 quakes is a result of upscaling how the smaller quakes are defined, thus the disappearing quakes may simply be appearing with higher magnitude numbers. If so, the summary trend line for all magnitudes is perfectly valid. 2. Wobble MAX/MIN Cycle: In the highly compressed perspective of this graph, no correlation appears between the seven year wobble cycle and the annual average daily quake frequency. There is a correlation but the mathematics of "averaging" and the significant anomalous growth in frequency since 2000 has obliterated a view of it in this chart. See the graph Eurasia 4+ for 1973-2007 Using The Declination Correlation To Predict Future Quake Frequency On Eurasia: A projection of the trend in Eurasian quakes 2+ on the basis of the correlation with Lunar Declination can be crudely estimated. Lunar Declination is currently near its most extreme angle of 28 degrees with the Equator. Accordingly, at present the influence is at maximum and we should be seeing a "peak tide" this year. Each year for approximately the next nine years the angle will gradually decrease down to the minimum declination of 18 degrees. The .69 correlation between frequency of quakes and lunar declination suggests at least a relative diminishment in the growth trend during this coming nine year period, or even an absolute diminishment on average. The diminishment in the trend will reach bottom in 2016 and then the quake frequency will gradually rise again during the succeeding nine years, eventually reaching a peak rate once again in approximately 2025. If the earthquake databases were more mature with richer statistical profiles, if might be possible to hazard some actual trend numbers and peak windows throughout this time frame. However, the depth of the databases, most of which have a consistency of only about 35 years, with many "missing" profiles, probably will make such an exercise pretty marginal for the next 20 years. It is better to focus the attention on profusely wiring and recording Eurasia. |
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Copyright 2007, MWM, all rights reserved
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