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Climate Oscillations
 (AKA El Nino, La Nina, Southern Oscillation, Glacial,  Interglacial, etc.)

Abstract  |  Major Findings  |  Table of Contents  |  Introduction  |  Background


Ocean Climate Cycles ENSO-Wobble Correlations  |  Bingo! Frequency Chart   

Orbital Climate Cycles:   18 Yrs - 2000 Yrs   12,500 Yrs  100,000 Yrs  |  400,000 Yrs   |  2 MillionTectonic Eras

Trends & Lobbies In The Great  Global Warming Debate


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Climate Oscillations
 

Abstract:  [5-3-2007] This is the Earth Changes Storyboard for links to information about Earth's climate oscillations and the factors which create them.  The climate cycles range from short term oscillations of a few years to cycles which are vastly longer than 10,000 or even 100,000 years.  The primary objective of this storyboard is to summarize the basic facts about  these cycles and how they combine to produce Earth's constantly changing climate regime.  The perspective which is created by observing the interactions of these cycles leads easily to the realization that Global Warming is almost entirely a creation of the combined activity of Earth's tectonic dynamics  and peaks in  Solar Activity which are induced by the astrophysical relationships between the Sun and the planets.   From this perspective it can be seen quite easily that the current round of Global Warming is probably induced by tectonic dynamics which are over-riding a  solar- induced cooling trend.   If so, human activities, except for densely settled areas and regions with human-damaged ecologies, likely have very little influence on global climate trends and neither does the carbon dioxide gas which human activities are generating.

 

One major focus in the Climate Storyboard are the graphs composed by MWM  which correlate the Nino/Nina weather oscillation with the spiraling motions of Earth's Seven Year Wobble Cycle.  Directly connected to this focus are many other graphs which provide comparative perspectives about how the El Nino or ENSO phenomenon is correlated to trends in world volcanism, the warming of the World Ocean, earthquakes, "Global Warming", and the eruptive behaviors of specific groups of volcanoes.  Collectively, this material demonstrates the principles of Vortex Tectonics and explains how El Nino and other short term oceanic climate fluctuations  reflect tectonic events which are produced by the Earth's shifting wobble.  In the simplest possible terms, as the Earth's wobble fluctuates in size through its seven year cycle, heat flux increases and decreases  rhythmically  through the Great Rifts (so-called mid-oceanic ridges) which split the centers of the world's oceans.  This heat fluctuation alternatively causes El Nino and La Nina, and most likely the other oceanic climate oscillations.

 

A second major focus of the storyboard is to provide a collection of graphs which document the many other long-term cycles which shape the climate regime on Earth. These range from the 11 year Solar Activity (Sunspot) Cycle (actually 8 to 13 years) up to the 100,000 and 400,000 year cycles in Earth's orbit which produce major changes in the average temperature of the Earth and the weather extremes of the Seasons.  The material is provided to demonstrate that the primary driver of long term cyclical changes in Earth's climate for any given latitude are variations in Earth's orbital cycles.

 

The third major focus of the storyboard is to combine the correlations between the short and long term cycles to argue that the current round of Global Warming is caused, like El Nino and other oceanic climate oscillations, by dynamic changes in the  location of the Earth's wobbling Spin Axis. The location of the Wobble commenced a long term cumulative drift during the past 90 years which is forcing a long term shift in the shape of the Earth.  This shape-shifting appears to be driving a long term acceleration in earthquake and volcanic activity which is producing an overall increase of heat flow into the oceans.  This increased heat flow produces the symptoms which humans have come to call "Global Warming".  Apparently, as the fossilized records of the past appear to make clear, all three factors, Solar, Orbital, and Axial, combine periodically and somewhat chaotically to  produce both long, slow changes and relatively rapid, radical changes in Earth's climate regimes.   The fossilized records demonstrate that sharp shifts of average annual temperature up to as much as 10 Celcius, can occur in as little as a few hundred years and perhaps occasionally under special circumstance in as little as 20 years.  More probable than not, tectonic shape-shifting and changes in latitudes brought about by changes in the location of Earth's wobbling Spin Axis, easily explain the most radical climate changes which appear in the fossil records.  Earth's shape-shifting activity occasionally accelerates to produce much higher heat flow into the oceans in periodicities which may last from a few decades to a few millennia.   In longer periodicities, ranging from  several millennia to perhaps 20,000 years, the orientation of the surface of the Earth to the Sun appears to shift occasionally in "discrete events" which are both rapid and fairly radical in the degree of shift.  There are many different kinds of evidence for such shifts, which which have been estimated by different scientists to be as small as a fraction of a degree up to as much as 30 degrees.

 


Climate Oscillations

Table Of Contents

 

Note:  The storyboard is under continuous development and expansion.  A few links here are not working very well at the moment, and more may be added at any time.

 

 

Sunmary Of Major Findings Developed Uniquely Through This Study By MWM

 

 

Introduction To The Climate Storyboard

 

 

Background Information - Links to concepts, references, and major sources

1.  for El Nino & La Nina, SO (Southern Oscillation). & other oceanic cycles
 

2.  for orbital cycles
 

3.  for wobble cycles

 

El Nino - Wobble Correlation Graphs

1.  El Nino & The Wobble X Plot 1890-2006
        expanded version    giant version

landscape line graph in three different sizes by MWM

 

2.  El Nino & The Wobble Y Plot 1890-2006
landscape giant-sized horizontal line graph by MWM
 

3.  El Nino & The 7 Year  Wobble Cycle 1962-2005

portrait area and bar graph by MWM

 

4.  La Nina & The 7 Year  Wobble Cycle 1962-2005

portrait area and bar graph by MWM

 

Correlations Between Oceanic Climate Oscillations, Tectonic Activity
& Other Geophysical Trends:

El Nino Bingo Chart:  Frequency Of Extreme Events Began Accelerating In 1960

portrait bar graph by NOAA Staff Scientists


Trend of Increase In Hurricane Activity 1950-2007

area plot in portrait orientation by

 

Trend of Increase In The Frequency Of The Wobble 1973-2004
scatter plot in portrait orientation by

 

Trend of Increase In The Drift Of The Wobble 1900-2006
scatter plot in portrait orientation by MWM


Earthquakes - Trend Of Increase in World Seismic Activity 1973-2007
area plot in landscape orientation by MWM

 

Volcanism; Trend of Increase In World Volcanic Activity 1973-2004
area plot in landscape orientation by MWM

 

Trend of Warming In The World Ocean 1973-2004
line plot in portrait orientation by Sydney Levitus et al

Nine Trends Which Are Changing The Earth
Global Warming line and area plots in expanded landscape orientation by MWM

Correlations Of El Nino With Selected Volcanoes
line, area, and bar plots in landscape orientation by MWM

Orbital & Long Term Climate Cycles From 18 Years To Millions Of Years
 

 

 


Climate Oscillations

Summary of Major Findings

 

El Nino

 

La Nina

 

 

 

 

Climate Oscillations

Introduction

 

 

The Global Warming issue, which has become as much an interesting study in social pandemics as it is an interesting body of information about the Earth, has stimulated a large and growing number of research studies in all the of Earth Sciences and in many astrophysical endeavors during the past 25 years.  When looking at the current scientific literature, it seems like scarcely a rock, ocean-bottom, cosmic cycle, or layer of ice has not been looked under for clues to the whereabouts of the Global Warming Cause.  

 

Immeasurably more is now known about the Earth as a result of all this new research.  The rapidly growing sophistication in global reporting, database archiving, and scientific communication makes possible the communication of new findings at unprecedented rates.  The result is an explosion of new ideas, relationships in data, and the emergence of  new paradigms which are coalescing disparate information into some detailed understandings of the history and change of the Earth's climate and tectonic activity during the past couple of million years.  Scientists can now describe, with reasonable proof, the annual snowfall in Northern Greenland a million years ago, the approximate swing in temperature for the year, and whether any major volcanic eruptions occurred in any given span of time during the the last hundred thousand years or so.

 

The explosion of scientific inquiry has clearly identified at least a dozen major cycles in the Earth's climate patterns.   Many other minor cycles also have been identified and there does not yet seem to be a count of how many distinguishable cycles there may  be. 

 

Though it might have once seemed merely obvious, science can now demonstrate in very precise terms that the Sun, both metaphorically and literally, is the center of the climate change cycles on Earth and most probably on the other planets as well. 

 

Cyclical changes in Solar Activity, which appear to range from a few weeks to a few hundred years,  and the changing shape and size of the orbit of the Earth, which occurs through tens of thousands of years,  combine to profoundly affect Earth's climate.  The largest shifts in the orbital climate cycles can now be traced backwards in time for the past two million years or so while the Solar Activity cycles can be traced backwards accurately for several thousand years, even to some extent for the past 400,000 years.

 

These cycles are easily traced by using "proxy" chemicals (such as Carbon 14, Oxygen 18, Sulfur Dioxide, Nitrate,  etc.) which are found in tree rings, ice layers, sedimentary deposits on the ocean floor, or  in other ways.  The "proxies" indicate the amount of average sunlight on the Earth's surface for any given period of time.  As the amount of sunlight and ionic energy which reaches the Earth's surface varies through time,  changes occur in the size of annual tree rings and in the quantity of proxies (isotopic chemical compositions) which are deposited in layers of mud and ice and other types of sedimentation.  These changes  can now be directly correlated with the amount of sunlight, which is primarily  determined by the shape and size of the orbit of the Earth.

 

The orbital cycles of many planets in our solar system combine through time to also directly influence the activity of the Sun.  This can give rise to many variations in Solar Activity, ranging from short term (from 10.5 years to 400 years) to very long term, even apparently causing variations which persist for millions of years. 

 

Based on these variations, scientists are now able to reconstruct the levels of activity in the Sun hundreds, thousands, perhaps even millions of years ago though at this writing no one apparently taken the million year leap.  This "reconstructed" Sun of the past can be combined with the cycles in Earth's  orbit around the Sun to decode what the "proxies" tell us was the climate on Earth for any given decade or so for the area from which the proxies were extracted.  Many cycles have been identified by these means and they indicated that most of the long term shifts of climate are largely driven by Earth's orbit.

 

There are some major barriers to how far back science can go.  Eventually, the records become too scanty and the limits of mathematics produce increasingly poor results.  Elaborate mathematical modeling of the planetary orbits has demonstrated that the mathematics which are used for the orbits of the planets eventually produce chaotic alterations in the planet's orbits.  F. Varadi et al, for instance, have demonstrated that the orbits of the inner planets substantially deviate from their current orbital cycles in about four million years.  They call this the gradual onset of chaos, vis a vis present conditions.  Varadi et al also found that chaos overtakes the orbits of the primary "heavy planets, the so-callled outer planets of Jupiter, Saturn, Neptune, and Uranus  after about 25 milion years.  These onsets of chaos are probably less "real" in the solar system and probably more produced by the current limits of mathematical modeling.

 

These mathematical demonstrations are profoundly important to the study of climate cycles and in fact to all Earth Sciences. 

 

Scientists can now detect a multiplicity of climate cycles which are produced by combinations of orbital and solar cycles

 

 

 

 

 

Although the cause and effect processes which generate changes in Solar Activity (such as Sunspots, magnetic storms, CME's flairs, etc.) are still poorly understood, it is easy to see that relationships between the orbital cycles of the planets directly influence the size and length of the cycles of Solar Activity.  For instance, ancient civilizations were aware that when Mercury's orbit aligned with Venus and the Earth is certain ways, generally many changes would occur in the weather and in human societies.  For this reason the ancients called Mercury "the messenger of the gods".  Its fleeting appearance in the evening sky was thought to be a signal of changes about to come.    Scientists now know that when the orbital position of Mercury aligns with Venus and/or with Earth to make them parallel to the Sun in a straight line, a major surge in Solar Activity often occurs, except when the Sun is quiescent in its MIN phase every 11 years, as it was during 2007.  

 

The surge in Solar Activity brought by the combinations of the planets  includes Sunspots and many types of magnetic and ionic storms which persist for a few days or even weeks.  These directly impact the Earth's magnetic field, the atmosphere, and weather patterns, causing a wide variety of changes on the Earth, including the intensification of hurricanes and tornadoes.

 

The level of average Solar Activity surges up and down in many cycles, ranging from peaks of a few days produced every few weeks by Mercury's  or Venus's alignments with the other planets, to  an 11 year Sunspot Cycle, or even to periods of 20-22, 44, 100, or 200 years, and perhaps even longer.

 

Many specific rhythms of Sunspot Activity which reflect the orbits of specific planets also have been mathematically detected.    The Magnetic Reversal Cycle of 20-22 years is almost certainly related directly to the "beat" of the orbits of Saturn and Jupiter which brings their positions in a straight line "alignment" with the Sun every 20 years.  The longer Solar Activity cycles may reflect various other synchronicities in the orbits of the planets.  Some mathematical studies have been made which appear to demonstrate that this is almost certainly true.

 

Accordingly, it most likely follows that the Sun is occasionally capable, under certain synchronicities in the orbits of the planets, of such greater peak output than has been recorded by scientists since the 1600.  These synchronicities may be both short and long term, thus they have the potential to produce a year of profound impact during certain years or even many long periods of alteration in the the general climate. 

 

For the most part, annual weather patterns and multi-year climate cycles  are connected to the waxing and waning of solar activity in its 11 - 200 year cycles, and possibly even a 1ooo year cycle.  Beginning in the early Twentieth Century, historians also have directly correlated the 11 year Solar Activity cycle with various agricultural cycles, human economic cycles, the outbreak of major wars, and other forms of human mass behavior.

 

Many perplexing questions are being created by the growing knowledge of cycles of change in the Earth.  If we compare climate data with past levels of Solar Activity for the past 400 years, it is very clear that cool and warm periods are most likely directly connected to changes in the general level of Solar Activity.   In other words, the cooler the average temperature, the lower is the Sunspot Count, and vice verse, of course.

 

If we compare our present trends with the trend lines of the past, it would seem that Solar Activity is now trending downward and should continue to trend downward during Century 21.  Thus "Global Cooling" should be the inevitable result during the next 50 years.  This of course contradicts the Global Warming that we can see in fact is actually happening.  Thus it is apparent that something else besides just Solar Activity is driving our current trend of Global Warming. 

 

This makes the profound question of the moment:  what is this "something else"? 

A burgeoning archive of new knowledge has been generated by scientists seeking to answer this question.   This mountain of new knowledge has been used during the past 15 years to slowly improve computer modeling activities which attempt to make deductions which describe and predict how the Earth's climate system works and what will happen in the future.  Scientists test what will happen in CO2 increases, or if temperature increases, or if solar activity increases, etc.   Most scientists hope to be able to use computers to tell us that Global Warming is real and what effects it will produce in the future.

 

It would appear, however, that these models, despite Al Gore's charming rap on climate change and the models which are predicting doom from CO2, are still widely regarded with great suspicion by most scientists.  As they say in the computer trade, garbage in, garbage out.  As of early 2007, the computer models have  not gotten any prediction right...in advance.  The best they have been able to do is "simulate" predictions by performing correctly in hindsight

 

After some 20 years of trying, the problem of the computer models comes down to this: they cannot currently be distinguished from mathematical solipsism (fantasy).  If the output is still garbage, the input must still be too mistaken or too limited to produce useful results, or simply processed with the wrong ideas.

 

Fortunately the vast computerized Ozian climate models are un-necessary.  The simple truth is that about half of what we need to know about trends of changing climate patterns can be read right out of the charts of long range orbital cycles.  The other half will come from more systemic monitoring of the dynamic changes in the oceans, which rule the climate patterns and oscillations, and the Great Rift of the Earth which releases heat into the bottoms of the oceans.  In other words, the modeling does not need to be fancier with cleverer thoughts.  More of the right kind of real-world empirical research is essential.

 

It is the release of heat from the Earth which provides the energy which creates the oscillations in the temperatures of the ocean basins and thence the surfaces of the continents.  From this comes the regular ocean climate oscillations such as El Nino.  From this also comes a portion of the trends of Global Warming and Global Cooling which can be seen in the historical past. 

 

Just how much of the climate warming and cooling trends should be proportioned between the tectonic activity in the oceans, the Solar Activity Cycles, and Earth's orbital cycles,  is as yet unknown.  The mathematicians have been so busy on CO2, they have completely missed the upward trend in volcanic activity and the warming of the World Ocean.  Despite our over-all historical ignorance. One thing can be easily established for the current round of Global Warming.  It is not much driven by Solar Activity nor Earth's orbit, it is primarily a tectonic event.

 

El Nino, the premier ocean climate cycle,  is perhaps the best place to see how this works and look for ways to proportion the causes and effects.  A few  short term climate cycles are becoming well known under names like  El Nino, La Nina, Southern Oscillation (Southern Hemisphere for New Zealand and Australia), Arctic Oscillation, North Atlantic Oscillation (which may be the same thing), the Hurricane Cycle, etc.  These names all refer to weather patterns which involve large regions of the Earth.  The center of each weather pattern is a major section of the ocean.  Hence, these are appropriately called Ocean Climate Cycles. 

 

Under each of them is a vast, large, highly active belt of volcanic activity which generates heat surges in the range of terawatts.  

 

The essence of these ocean climate cycles is ultra simple.  Regions of the World Ocean alternate between periods of high or low pressure gradients which are produced by surface temperatures which are cooler or warmer than average. These cycles are seasonal of course, but there are also multi-year cycles of periods warmer or cooler than normal.  One of the longest ocean climate cycles, the Northern Atlantic Cycle, appears to be some 20 years in length.  But this may be surpassed by a Hurricane Cycle of xxx in length and a super El Nino Cycle of 50 years or more in length.

, though the Hurricane cycle is a 20 year cycle

 

More climate cycles are being identified related to regions smaller than oceanic basins the size of the North Atlantic.  Generally these are also related to the oceans, most especially to the monsoon air flows which the oceans produce. As one would expect, these all tend to be interconnected with the major oscillations, such as El Nino. 

 

More or less, whatever in the world's climate cycles is not directly created by the Sun, is created by the oceans.   By far, the most important, the largest driver of short term climate cycles is the El Nino syndrome.  Technically known as the ENSO (El Nino Southern Oscillation), these cycles are typically a few years (3-7) in length.

 

Only slightly  longer in length are the Solar Activity Cycles, which typically are 8-13 years, averaging at about 10.5 years.  The Solar Cycles interact with the Ocean Climate Cycles in complex ways, creating never-ending variations in the weather. The variations are so complex that the human species still does not know how to think about these combinations nor talk about them consistently.

 

Does the Sun produce El Nino? Not a chance, as the charts below do reveal.  But the Sun does clearly influence some of the El Nino pattern, most likely by influencing the energy which is in the atmosphere.  As the ocean surface temperature alternates between warm and cool, the Solar Activity cycle pumps the atmosphere into greater or lesser activity. For instance, a more active atmosphere will take off more of the warm El Nino water, producing a stronger El Nino year. 

 

Since all of these ocean climate and solar activity cycles are of different lengths, they combine endlessly in different ways.  The result is never a dull average moment on the Earth.   All changes, ceaselessly, and thus each El Nino Oscillation and each Solar Activity Cycle are somewhat unique.

 

dblecheck hurricane cycle length

get terminology descriptors consistent with this below

Beyond the short term Ocean Oscillation Cycles (which we can think of as ranging predominately from 3 to 21 years in length) and the Solar Activity Cycles (which we can think of as ranging predominately between 8 to 400 years in length), we encounter a variety of orbital cycles, most of which are vastly longer in duration.  The Orbital Cycles range from the relatively short term seven year cycle in the size of Earth's Wobble and  the Lunar Eclipse Cycle of 18.5 years, which is generally known as the Saros Cycle, to the 100,000 and 400,000 cycles in the shape, size, and angle of the Earth's obit about the Sun's equator.  

 

Nearly all of the historical climate data from the distant past reflect these orbital cycles.  Why?  Primarily because of variations in the light received on Earth at any given latitude.  The light varies directly with changes in Earth's orbital relationships with the Sun, the Moon, and the twisting, bobbing, wobbling changes in the orientation and location of the Spin Axis of the Earth.

 

These cycles are well defined and their reflections can be be easily seen in a variety of ways in the quantities of isotopes and chemical ions which are deposited in polar ice, ocean and lake sediments, tree rings, peat bogs and other materials from the ancient past.  Scientists have learned how to use measurements of  isotopes such as Oxygen-18 and Carbon-14 in various layers as "proxies" for defining changes in the warming and cooling trends of the climate.  Carbon-14, for instance, can define the amount of light, the general trends in the Solar Activity Cycle, and the likely temperature changes through tens of thousands of years into the past.   Oxygen-18 can track these trends backwards for millions of years.  As these chemicals increase and decrease through vertical profiles of mud or ice, scientists can directly infer whether the amount of light hitting the surface of the Earth was increasing or decreasing during any given time.

 

As can be seen in the record of the rocks, ice, and sediments of Earth,  variations in the sizes and connections between the orbital cycles produce significant climate change phenomenon on a regular cyclical basis.  Cycles of 18, 12,500 or 12,750, 40,000, , 25,500, 100000,  and 400000 years have been defined during the past 20 years through a large number of studies, most especially the ice core studies on Antarctica conducted under Petrie. cite xxx please

 

A great number of these cycles can be directly correlated with three aspects of Earth's orbit:  the size of the orbit, the shape, and the inclination of the orbit relative to the equatorial plane of the Sun (which is the same as the "average equator" of the entire Solar System) .  Technically these aspects  are described by astrophysicists as:

 

 

Eccentricity (distortion of the shape of Earth's Orbit): 

The amount of this distortion is called the eccentricity of the Earth's orbit and it is measured as a unit of ellipsicity which indicates the amount of variation from a perfect circle.  The eccentricity of the Earth's orbit varies between nearly 0 (a perfect circle to almost 0.05 over a period of 41,000 years.  Currently it is 0.0167 and it is very slowly getting smaller. 

 

The more eccentric, the greater is the amount of variation in heat which is given to the Earth between Perihelion (closest approach to the Sun) and Apogee (furthest distance from the Sun). Since the overall total area of the orbit remains the same, the amount of solar energy striking the Earth does not change.  What changes is the concentration of the energy into periods of warming and cooling. By itself, this cycle would do very little to change Earth's overall climate.  The impact comes when this cycle is combined with other orbital cycles.

 

Axial Tilt (also known as Obliquity)

The Spin Axis of the Earth is signifcantly tilted relative to the equatorial plane of the Earth.  Varies....variation is becoming smalll

This tilt of course produces nearly all the annual variations in our Weather.  Obviously changes in teh amount of tilt will have a definite influcence on the climate in the temperate and arctic zones, though of course this chnage will unnoticable in the equatorial zones.

 

This tilt s

 

 major cooling and warming eras.......

 

as much warming as...

what is most interesting about these cycles is that CO2 appears to increase, AFTER the warming.

 

sudden shifts appear in the ice record

in as little as 20 years.  radical shifts,

 

These three are said to create what are called "the ice ages". 

 

 

What makes the current climate change so extremely challenging to decipher is that

there is no orbital factor, with the singular exception of the 18 year lunar cycle, which can produce any sudden climate shifts and nothing close to the amount of climate change we have seen in the past 100 years.

 

We are currently in the middle of a middling range of orbital cycles. No extremes, not much change during the last 1000 years and none to be expected during the next 1000 years.  Thus,  orbitally speaking, no trends here.  Whatever is currently happening has no relationship to orbital factors and orbital graphs.

 

But, historically speaking, we have a profound mystery of substantial change which "looks like" some of the orbitally-induced climate shifts of the far past.  Is it climate change induced by a very long Solar Activity Cycle, such one which is perhaps in the range of 1000 to 5000 years long?  Or is it some unknown geophysical cycle?  Or is this just a random fluctuation in the vast infinity of the cosmos?

 

Without any ability to find causal agents for our current climate change in the Earth's orbital cycles and other long-term cosmic factors, we left to our own devices in the current age.  Within this framework, the story of Global Warming is best begun with the story of El Nino.  El Nino is in its essence a "brief" period of warming of a major portion of the world.  The climate and weather patterns which El Nino produces are essentially the same as what world-wide "Global Warming" is now beginning to create more and more on a permanent basis. 

 

The major difference between the El Nino Climate Regime and the Global Warming Climate Regime is the scale and duration.  Essentially both El Nino and Global Warming add energy into the atmosphere and "push" the climate of any given latitude further into a higher latitude.  For El Nino, that is for a season or a year at most.  For Global Warming, the push is permanent.  El Nino impacts about 50% of the Earth for several months in duration, Global Warming is affecting the entire Earth more or less permanently shifting the seasons into new patterns or what we can call new "Syndromes". 

Since the effects are so similar, it is perfectly rational to ask if the causes might be the same.   Is the warming trend in the Pacific Equator which produces El Nino caused by the same source which is warming the North Atlantic and the Arctic, where the main symptoms of "Global Warming" are the most pronounced? In fact, it is perfectly dense not to ask such a fundamental scientific question, even though this observation will in today's political environment make some people with their own pet theories very upset.  Such is the nature of really basic science.

It occurred to me only in the last two years to ask this question.  I have known for some ten years now, from certain correlations I made in natural phenomenon, that El Nino is not an "effect" produced by the atmosphere from solar energy, it is primarily a release of volcanic heat along the Pacific Equator from the bottoms of the oceans.  Once you surmise this connection it is easy to observe.  The fundamental observations are presented in the six El Nino - Wobble graphs which follow.  As I watched the Earth's tectonic activity accelerate on its now fifty year old trend line, it finally dawned on me that this "Global Warming" phenomenon might be simply more of the same type of heat flowing from underwater volcanism through other portions of the Great Rift (which are generally called mid-oceanic ridges).

It was the Arctic Ocean which really tipped me off.  It is in the Arctic zone that we can see most clearly that the Earth is warming up.  Here is where "Global Warming" is most definitely a proven fact as a 30 year or so trend despite a trend of decrease in Solar Activity during the same period of time.  How could the Arctic ice pack melt unless the water underneath it was warming up? If one thinks through the physics of the issue, it is practically impossible to conclude that a small one or two  degree increase in the average atmospheric temperature, which is occuring in spite of a 3o year decline in average Solar Activity, can produce a 20% increase in the annual summer melting of the Arctic.  It is so cold there that a one or two degree difference in the air is impossibly far from the required heat shift which can produce a melt of the ice.  How is that heat getting there to melt the ice on a sustained basis at a greater rate each year?  Since you definitely cannot assign that to the "weather",  the only possible cause MUST BE IN THE WATER.  Or, rather, more correctly, under the water.  

And rather more precisely, underwater volcanism from the Great and deep Rift which cuts directly through the center of the Arctic and which has provided scientists with signatures in the water of volcanic plumes through over half of its expanse. edit xxx citation required

Well, this gets quite ahead of the story,  in fact far beyond this Storyboard about the Wobble and the El Nino and the Earth's Climate Oscillations.  It should and will take quite a bit to prove those assertions and this is not the place.  I mention it to indicate that the stakes for understanding El Nino and the warming of the world oceans are really quite high. 

Thus it is very well worthwhile understanding the six El Nino graphs which are presented below and the follow-on graphs which correlate El Nino with the Earth's Wobble, tectonic activity, and other geophysical trends.  If the causes are all the same for El Nino, the warming of the Arctic, and Global Warming, specifically if the causes are changes in the Earth's Wobble, we have an entire different environmental reality than many have been supposing for the past 60 years.  And, naturally, how to relate to it and deal with it will shift quite radically.

Beyond these graphs and charts, the major long range cycles are presented.  These provide deep background sufficient to demonstrate that the fluctuations which we can see in the trend lines for today's changes in the Earth are remarkably unexceptional.  In fact, as will be quickly understood by perusing the long range cycles, the Earth changes radically, frequently.  This is something we will need to learn to accept.  We are not special, we are subject to a vast array of cosmic forces which impel us constantly to adapt to changing conditions.

To pick a single variable out of  the cosmic flux which produces the climate regimes of Earth, such as CO2 emissions, and to wantonly speculate it into the cause of a dire fate, with little understanding of the fuller fabric of the terrestrial sphere, is typically Faustian, profoundly Western.  In the particular case of CO2, it is a lunatic pandemic.  In its full-press-court dress before the courts of world opinion, the "carbon" campaign has become  a supreme exercise in academic mathematical solipsism which has lost any mooring in real philosophical understanding of the nature of science and the epistemology of real knowledge.  Accordingly, like all such zealous crusades, railing against CO2 emissions will be about as effective as pissing against the wind.

Read on.  I am quite certain that you too will be persuaded by the vast marshaling of evidence which is before you.  You may not admit it for various geo-political, ideological, and egotistical reasons, but I guarantee you that will never be able to screw on your old presumptions like you did before.


Climate Oscillations

Background Information & Knowledge/Data Sources:

 


El Nino La Nina SO & Other Oceanic Climate Oscillations

START HERE FOR ALL THINGS PACIFIC CLIMATE AND GLOBAL WARMING

An Excellent Orientation For Kids Of All Ages:  From the Thinkquest Library

Covers in simple English how scientists are attempting to analyze El Nino, model it into a climate theory, and from that make predictions.

After reading this meta overview, it is easy to immediately spot the two main conceptual blind spots of the weathermen.  The first is that they are completely unfamiliar with the fact that the Earth is spinning to the East, bunching up the crust and fluids of the Earth against the eastern “windward” edges of the continents. Thus they mistake why the water and atmospheric circulation works as it does.  They “see” it as “pressure differentials” created by the “equatorial climate”.  These pressures are likely secondary effects produced indirectly by the rotating mass(es) of the Earth, not primary causes. The second mistake is that their model simply lacks an elementary driver to make it work.  Energy must come into the system to produce El Nino.  To attribute such a source, they mystically bow and scrape to Ozian “feedbacks” just behind the veils of perception.  They are totally oblivious to the driver - the “bunsen burner” at the bottom of the ocean.

La Nina Home Page At NOAA - What Is La Nina – A NOAA compendium of  web pages on La Nina & El Nino

Climate Predictions For El  Nino, La  Nina, & SO
The likely climate for months ahead; current but static SST carts & predictions

FAQs on Nino Nina – excellent range of questions and answers and links to powerful sources and images of information.

ENSO Evolution, Status, and Prediction Presentation (powerpoint)

 

National Weather Service - Climate Prediction Center

Climate Monitoring & Data Index  – this is a very extensive list of many different kinds of data series

Primary Data Series Used By MWM For El Nino Correlations:

Quarterly Data 1950-2006

Year Data 1877-2006

Comparison Charts Of Two Most Powerful La Nina's
How they come on, develop, and disappear

Powerful ENSO Impact Prediction Graphs For Specific Regions

ENSO Impacts The Main Long Range Climate Data Series Related To ENSO

Three Month ENSO Outlooks

Monthly & Seasonal Color Outlook Maps - Predict Rain and Temperatures For North America For The Year Ahead – Science Is Finally Catching Up With Farmer’s Almanac

NOAA Long Lead ENSO Brief In PowerPoint For Year Ahead

A PP Frame:  Most statistical and coupled model forecasts indicate SST anomalies will decrease during the next 2-3 months, with ENSO-neutral conditions lasting through the northern Spring (March-May 2007).

Following PP Frame:  The CFS ensemble mean (heavy blue line) indicates a rapid transition from neutral to La Niña conditions during the next 2-3 months.

Say what?  Say what a forecast.  All things for all folks.  The real news:   LA NINA is already here as of March 12 affecting the weather and this pattern will increase through to the Summer

ENSO FAQtoids

  1. These errata factoids are from the National Climate Prediction Center web pages.

  2. ENSO conditions seem to have occurred at every two to seven years for at least the past 300 years, but most of them have been weak.

  3. Major ENSO events have occurred in the years 1790-93, 1828, 1876-78, 1891, 1925-26, 1982-83, and 1997-98.[9]

  4. Recent El Niños have occurred in 1986-1987, 1991-1992, 1993, 1994, 1997-1998, 2002-2003, and 2006-2007.

  5. The El Niño of 1997-1998 was particularly strong and brought the phenomenon to worldwide attention, while the period from 1990-1994 was unusual in that El Niños have rarely occurred in such rapid succession (but were generally weak). There is some debate as to whether global warming increases the intensity and/or frequency of El Niño episodes. (see also the ENSO and Global Warming section above).

 


Wobble Cycles


Orbital Cycles

 

 

 

 

 

 

Ocean Climate Cycles

 

El Nino - Wobble Correlation Graphs

The story of Global Warming is best begun with the story of the El Nino Cycle and how it parallels with the seven year cycle of the Earth's Wobble. Essentially, the El Nino effect is very nearly like a "Global Warming" effect, though on a more limited scale. If we understand the cause of the El Nino, we may understand much better the cause of Global Warming in general.

Accordingly this part of the Climate Storyboard is composed of 12 graphs or charts.  The first four show display the El Nino years and the spiraling location of the North Spin Axis since 1890.  These are all very similar, differing mainly in size, from book size to full web page size and even into a giant scrolling size  In the Giant size, there is a graph for both the X and Y plots of the location of the North Spin Axis.

The next two graphs, small enough for printing in books, show the average size of the Wobble from 1962 through to 2005.  One of the graphs shows the El Nino years, the other shows the La Nina years .  These are a sort of 'sideways view" of the seven year wobble working through the El Nino cycle. [click here for Wobble Wave Charts].

These first six graphs clearly reveal that the El Nino cycles and the Wobble cycles are "pegged".  They are tied together in some fundamental way which is not obvious yet to most Earth scientists. 

These graphs are followed by two more charts which "peg"  a trend of increasing frequency of severe El Nino years since 1973 with a trend of increasing frequency in the Wobble from approximately the same date.   In other words, scientists have confirmed that the Wobble has become slightly faster during the same period of time during which the total energy expressed in the El Nino Cycle is accelerating into greater extremes.

This "time connection" between the trends must couple these activities to a common cause.  It is difficult to imagine that somehow this connection is just a random fluke.  The question thus must arise, what is the common thread?  What is the connection?  How does the Earth's Wobble create El Nino?

As the Storyboard reveals, it is not up in the Sun, as some might suppose, it is down in the bowels of the Earth.  More probable than not, El Nino comes with the creation of tectonic motion produced by the Wobble which rhythmically releases heat into the oceans through the Great Rifts which run through the middles of the ocean basins.  Five additional charts provide some very strong circumstantial evidence to make exactly this case.

The first graph displays the 35 year fivefold trend of increase in World Earthquake Activity between 1973-2006.  [click to see earthquake trend chart]  This certainly suggests that tectonic motion is increasing at a brisk pace.  Since some geophysicists, for peculiar  reasons known only to themselves, are very good at rationalizing such trends into nothingness, a detailed discussion of why this trend demonstrates a real trend of earthquake activity is provided.

The second graph  displays the 60 year threefold trend of acceleration in world volcanism.  [click to see volcanism trend chart]  This  indicates the Earth itself can easily be supposed to be the producer of El Nino.  Since there are some volcanologists who will ex-cathedra declare there are no trends in world volcanism except the increase in reports about volcanic activity, a detailed discussion of why this trend demonstrates a real trend of volcanic activity is also provided.

These charts collectively seem to demonstrate that a long term trend began in approximately the middle of the 20th century to cause tectonic  motion to increase, which in turn caused earthquake and volcanic activity to increase while the frequency in the Earth's Wobble began to accelerate slightly even as the frequency of severe El Nino increased.

Along these lines, one should take a very careful look at the graphs of the trends of increases in sulfur in the Greenland Ice Core.  The first graph is by Fischer et al (1998) which defines the amount of sulfur and nitrate ions for the period 1800-2000 which they found in ice cores taken from Northern Greenland  [click to see Sulfur Ions Northern Greenland Ice chart]  Their chart demonstrates a rather progressive and large acceleration in volcanic emissions during the last half of the 20th century.

Their chart simply, elegantly, and decisively proved the reality and validity of the  increase of activity which was added up in the graph (above) from the counts of individual volcanoes (Trend of World Volcanism 1900-2006).

The next graph in the sequence displays the acceleration in the warming of the World Ocean since the 1970's.  [click to see chart of the Warming of the World Ocean] This graph by Levitus et al (2005) clearly reveals that additional heat is in fact rising through the oceans from the bottoms and that the rate of flow periodically accelerates and decelerates, alternatively waxing and waning as if tied to other dynamics in the oceans or the Earth. 

As we can see without a shadow of a question of a doubt, we have multiple geophysical dynamics all sequencing in time with each other.  Since about 1960, tectonic motion is increasing and thus earthquake activity is increasing, volcanic activity is increasing,  heat release through the oceans is increasing, frequency of severe El Nino's  increasing, Atlantic hurricane activity in increasing in severity, the Arctic is melting at a more rapid rate, and sulfur ions in the Northern Greenland ice are increasing to "record" this era of acceleration in the changes in the Earth.

Most importantly, the record in the Northern Greenland Ice Core informs us that these changes are all directly connected to a geophysical wave of activity which began in the 20th century.  The century prior to 1880 is a flat line, virtually no flux in the sulfur ions.  The first wave of ions builds from about 1880 through a small increase to about 1940.  Then another major wave begins to develop about 1940 and reaches its peak in about 1970, after which it begins to decline through to the early 1990's. 

The second major wave of sulfur ionic buildup in the ice of Northern Greenland correlates quite well with the curve of warming of the World Ocean.  

Why?  Many climatologists suppose that sulfur ions are from hydrocarbons burned by humans.  Is this plausible?  Partly.  Some of this "curve" may have been caused by human-induced pollution, but it very doubtful that you can correlate all of it to the trends of human industrialization.

The time frame is skewed.  This portion of the Arctic icecap is at a very high latitude and is not likely to have received much xxxx XXX the Clip of the sulfur series in mid 1990's, extension of the warming of the World Ocean curve to 2004.  Does the sulfur in the Ice Core for this 10 year period mirror this movement of heat as well? If it does you can kiss human hydrocarbons good-bye.

All in all, then, the "net parallel" from this combination of phenomena and trend-lines forms very strong circumstantial evidence for a common cause.  In the Wobble charts we can even find the likely cause from a timing signal.  The average location of the Wobble began to shift its location during the 20th century.  This process began early in the 20th century after after many decades of no apparent drift in its location.  After  a decade of drift, a period of instability set-in during the late 1920's which lasted until the early 1940's.  After the century's greatest Solar Activity Cycle (#19 which peaked in 1958/1959),  the drift in the Wobble began to accelerate and a more rapid rate of drift has persisted throughout the  last half of the 20th Century.

Most interestingly, the rate of drift and the angle of drift of the Magnetic North Pole also changed dramatically in this same time window. edit xxx expand discussion and add graph

Thus we can see that the timing of all major geophysical trends directly connects to this curve of change in the Earth's Wobble.  These correlations rather strongly provide the basis for establishing the Vortex Tectonic paradigm as the key focus for Earth Sciences.  

This evidence is, frankly, as good as the evidence upon which Plate Tectonics was initially accepted.  Earth's Wobble rhythmically produces tectonic motion which produces volcanism which in turn creates the El Nino Oscillation, probably the other ocean oscillations,  as well as producing an accumulation of heat in the World Ocean which is then directly increasing the average temperature of the Earth in general as well as heating the Arctic in particular.

As the rate of drift (AKA True Polar Wander) increases, the shape of the Earth is forced to change at a more rapid rate to adjust the average location of the Spin Axis and the average location of the Equator.  This must increase the rate of seismic and volcanic activity, including through the Great Rift of the Earth.  Thus the heat flow into the oceans also MUST be accelerating as a cumulative trend.

In fact this is all occurring ON EXACTLY THE SAME TIME SCHEDULE. 

This chart also allows us to suspect that the acceleration of the Wobble Cycle and the increasing divergence in the drift may very well be driving the increasing acceleration of world volcanism, which in turn is driving the increasing frequency in the severe El Nino Cycles.  And, by extension, all this may be the underlying trends which are producing Global Warming in general.

The final graph in this set displays the composite of the Nine Geophysical Trends which are apparently changing the Earth during this period of time.  As can be easily seen, regardless of whether the Wobble is involved or not, which is going to be a hard grasp for many, underwater volcanism is a far more likely a candidate for the current round of Global Warming than carbon dioxide.

So, all in all, an amazing series of charts.  Not only have we nailed down the most likely cause of El Nino, we have found the direction (straight downward) in which to look for the source of Global Warming   And we have tied all of this into an entirely new mechanism which reveals, really, for the first time, the driver of Plate Tectonics and from this, more or less, the primary generator of the changing surface of the Earth: the Wobble .  This entire set of connections we can very accurately call Vortex Tectonics.

From this brief introduction, you can see we are on a major journey to a new continent of understanding about how the Earth works.  Let us begin the journey sensibly with some simple bar and line graphs which encompass the past 116 years of the El Nino Cycle.  The graphs plot the spiral motions of the Earth's Wobble year by year on top of the years which mark El Nino.  The first three graphs are virtually identical except in horizontal scale.   They start small so that you can get the perspective, see the rhythm of the flow of Earth's tectonic activity.  Then they get bigger and bigger so that you can see in greater and greater precision the exact connection in the timing of the events.  Don't leave these charts till you see the drift and get the rhythm!!!

Technical Note On How The Charts Were Plotted.

  1. All Wobble and El Nino data and plot assumptions are in Spreadsheet File "Wobble_Plots_1846-now.xls" by MWM.  All this data is drawn from IERS or NOAA data files.  Access is from http://www.michaelmandeville.com/gallery/models

  2. Wobble Min and Max years are defined by simple averaging of the x or y coordinates for each year

  3. Wobble locations are simple chart or graph XY coordinate measurements provided by the IERS

  4. The El Nino years are defined by selecting the years in which four months or more contained water warmer than 2 Celcius.

  5. All Global Warming, Earthquake, and Volcano assumptions are in "Vortex_Trends_Summary.xls".
     Access is  from http://www.michaelmandeville.com/gallery/models

 

 

]

El Nino & The Wobble X Plot 1890-2006
area and bar graph in landscape orientation by MWM
image file: pm_xplot_elnino_correlation_1890-2006.gif
model source: 
Wobble_Plots_1846-now.xls

The red bars indicate when the wobble was at its maximum size, the blue bars indicate when the wobble was at its minimum size. For details on the wobble cycle, see the Storyboard for "Earth's Wobble" .

The up and down wavy black line displays the "X" coordinate of the North Spin Axis.  We can say more or less that this is its position  on the Greenwich Meridian, or more accurately we can say that this is its relative change in location coming closer to or drawing away from England.  On the upper peaks, the North Spin Axis is slightly closer to England.

The highest peaks are the MAX phase of the seven year cycle.  The smallest black lines near zero are the MIN phase o the seven year cycle.  During a MIN phase, the wobble is very small, only about xxx meters feet in diameters. During the MAX phase, the diameter of the wobble is about....

There appears to be a slight irregularity in the wobble cycle and indeed there is.  It is 7.1 years long technically, but sometimes it is a little less than 7 years long.  However, most of the apparent irregularity you see on this chart reflects the fact that the wobble is 14 months, not 12 months and thus does not fit well into this annual chart.  The mismatched periods forces a shift in the display of the MIN or MAX phase in some cases, magnifying the apparent irregularity.

This doesn't matter in displaying what we need to know.  As can be seen, the El Nino years (shown by the yellow bars) almost never coincide with either the MAX or MIN phase.  In fact, only three times out of 29 El Ninos during the past 115 years has the MAX phase and El Nino coincided.  Only twice has an El Nino coincided with a MIN phase.  This strong anti-correlation is a very strong parallel.  El Nino tends to occur most frequently the year after a MAX phase, in fact has done so 10 times out of 29.  The remaining times (16) are on the years when the wobble is expanding or contracting in size.

 

 

 

]

Expanded Chart Of El Nino & The Wobble X Plot 1890-2006
expanded line and bar graph in landscape orientation by MWM
pm_xplot_elnino_correlation_page_1890-2006.gif
model source: 
Wobble_Plots_1846-now.xls

This fills a web browser quite nicely for seeing in maximum size both the detail and a sweeping look at the previous century.

 

]

Giant Chart Of El Nino & The Wobble X Plot 1890-2006
very large line and bar plot in landscape orientation by MWM
pm_xplot_elnino_correlation_expanded_1846-2006.gif
model source: 
Wobble_Plots_1846-now.xls

This chart is for kids of all ages and for having fun.  It also permits thinking about and looking for other correlations. Simply scroll horizontally.  Properly done, a giant computerized chart like this should use the last 150 months as the time line for a much more refined correlation of the Wobble with El Nino.

In this expanded chart of the Wobble Plot, one can see several anomalous periods in the wave form of the Wobble.  One can guess, and rightly so it is, that there is occasionally some instability in the motion of the Earth.  In fact, there is quite a bit of instability, as one can see in the Wobble Storyboard.

 

]

El Nino & The Wobble Y Plot 1890-2006
area plot in landscape orientation by MWM
pm_yplot_elnino_correlation_expanded_1846-2006.gif
model source: 
Wobble_Plots_1846-now.xls

What happens to the correlation between the Wobble and El Nino if the Y Plot is used instead of the X Plot? 

The Y Plot is relative position of the North Spin Axis along Longitude West 90.  The Y Axis is removed by 90 degrees (one fourth of a complete circle) from the X Axis (which is on Greenwich Meridian or Longitude 0).   This creates a phase difference in time between the two axis. Thus when the Spin Axis appears to be at its highest reading on the X Plot, the reading for the Y Plot is only 50%, roughly, of its highest peak reading.

It takes about 14 months for the Wobble to do a full circle around the Earth.  If you divide this 360 degree circle by 90 degrees, you end up with about 20 weeks for each 90 degrees of Wobble motion around the circle. Accordingly, the X and Y MAX or MIN periods can easily fall in different years.  Does this affect how well El Nino correlates to occur only BETWEEN the MIN and MAX phases, but not during the MIN or MAX phases?

Not much.  Some differences in assigned years show up but this does not affect the over-all correlation in a significant way.  In fact, the correlation might be a little better on the Y Axis, but this I will leave for determination by statisticians working with better mathematical logic than my simple-minded mathematics and spreadsheets provide.

In this graph below for the Y Plot, the colored years (for El Nino, X MAX and X MIN are still the same as in the X Plot above.  Only the plot for the wobble motion is changed to define the Y Plot rather than the X Plot. One can easily notice that the Y MAX or Y MIN years are sometimes different than the X MAX and X MIN years.  One can also easily observe that the Wobble avoids the Y MIN and Y MAX phases even more assiduously than it does the X MIN and MAX.  In fact the Wobble Y MIN occurs only twice with an La Nina and only once with an El Nino.  As we can see, the correlation has gotten stronger with this added depth.

 

 

 

El Nino & The 7 Year  Wobble Cycle 1962-2005
area plot in portrait orientation by MWM
wobble_elnino_correlation_1962-2005.gif
model source: 
Wobble_Plots_1846-now.xls
because of limitations in the wobble motion databases, this graph was drawn only from 1962 onwards

In this panel of the Storyboard are two small charts which display the El Nino or La Nina years from 1962-2006.  These years are drawn in yellow or blue as background for the wave form of the "Seven Year Wobble Cycle".  These can be easily printed and shared.  Please do so with attribution to this site. 

As you will see, when the El Nino ENSO and the Wobble are drawn together in this fashion the parallels are stunningly clear.  The El Nino years generally are found in the mid-range or mid-wave of the Seven Year Wobble Cycle.  On these charts below, the El Nino years generally show up on the sides of flanks of the major waves.  The La Nina is just the opposite, it tends to show up on or very close to the peaks and valleys of the wave.

If you wish to  fully understand the Seven Year Cycle in the wobble, you need to visit the Storyboard for "Earth's Wobble".  But that is not necessary for  seeing  how the seven year  rhythm of the Wobble connects with El Nino (and La Nina).  Don't leave those charts till you get the rhythm!!!

What happens when you eliminate the wobble spirals and focus entirely on just the Seven Year Wobble Cycle?  This chart to the right does just that.

Think of this chart as a sideways view of the Wobble as it spirals through time.

By plotting just the highest and lowest numbers of the X Plot for each year, we can paint a graph which shows us both sides of the Earth's Wobble as well as the El Nino Years.

As we can see, the Wobble/El Nino Correlation shows well in this chart.  Only the extended "El Nino" of 1991-1994 violates the correlation.  The year 2002 also almost violates it but the X MAX phase is best assigned to 2003 and by then the weak El Nino had already mostly passed.

For the four year period of 1991-1994, some climate specialists have concluded that the El Nino of 1991 lasted long enough to call 1992 an El Nino Year and after a minor, brief decline in sea surface temperature, another two year El Nino formed for a back-to-back total of four years.  Most of this period was a "mild" El Nino" with an intense period in 1992. The year 1993 was an X MIN Year, creating the largest deviation in the parallel.

Here is an interesting observation which this chart makes easy.  The zero line represents the Earth at rest or in a theoretical perfect balance during about the 1890's. The "Atlantic Lobe" (top half) shows the amount of energy in the wobble (total distance traveled) which is pushing England to the North.  "The Pacific Lobe" (bottom half) shows the amount of energy in the Wobble which is pushing England to the South. As we can see there is much more energy these days in the Atlantic Lobe and England is creeping toward the North as a result.  Or, the North Spin Axis is creeping further to the South, closer and closer to England.

We can also see that the trend of drift since 1962 which show in this chart is reflected in other graphs and ways of looking at the wobble. Look closely at the bottom peaks in the waves of the first few expanded charts in the panels above.  The bottom peaks are progressively "rising" higher and higher the closer you get to 2005.

Why?  Mass balance.  Somewhere the Earth is apparently slightly bottom-heavy or side-heavy. From the perspective of this chart, the Earth's Spin apparently has more momentum when the Wobble is tracking through the Pacific Hemisphere. Somewhere between Longitude 90 and Longitude East 90, the extra  "weight" appears to be gradually pulling the crust of the Earth in the Atlantic Hemisphere over the location of the North Spin Axis into the Pacific side.

The location of the heaviness and the angle of "creep" in the crust of the Earth can be more precisely defined.  For a more detailed definition of how the Earth's crust is shifting, see the Wobble Storyboard.

La Nina & The 7 Year  Wobble Cycle
1962-2005
area plot in portrait orientation by MWM
wobble_lanina_correlation_1962-2005
model source:  Wobble_Plots_1846-now.xls

Note:  These charts vary somewhat from earlier charts published on the IWAY or in print by MWM.  This chart reflects the latest definitions which NOAA has made for the El Nino Years.

Notes on certain years add thisl

probably duped below

PURPOSE OF THIS PLOT:

  1. It establishes the widest extent of the Chandler Wobble spiral for each year as measured on the X plot provided by IERS.

  2. The 0 point is the geographical pole as of Jan 1, 1900

  3. what was the offset

  4. Visualize this as a sideways view of the wobble spiral.

  5. The 7 Year cycle from MIN to MAX and back to MIN comprises basically six spirals of constantly varying size.

  6. Notice the migration of the total energy into the Atlantic Lobe - this reflects the absolute drift of the shifting average location of the spin axis.

  7. There is no directly evidence of migration prior to 1900 in the records of polar location which began in 1846. The drift began during the first two decades of the 20th century. 

 

 

 

 

Correlations Between Oceanic Climate Oscillations, Tectonic Activity & Other Geophysical Trends

To round out this story of the Wobble and the El Nino, four different charts provide some amazing correlations in the Earth's heat flow and geophysical activity which go far beyond any other scientific understanding as of March 2007.    The first chart I call "The Bingo! Frequency Chart".  It demonstrates that even as the Earth's Wobble began to shift more and more rapidly in a certain direction, and the Wobble began to shorten in length (and increase its frequency) the frequency of extreme El Nino events increased rather markedly, bringing us x out of x events.

Bingo chart.

The next two charts are borrowed from other "Storyboards", Earthquakes and Volcanism.  These charts reveal that after about 1960,  major earthquake activity increased by a factor of five times and world volcanism increased by a threefold factor (at least). 

In other words, two other important geophysical trends are accelerating at the same time, indicating a high likelihood that the source of the heat is elementary.

Warming of the World ocean heat.

1980 is a key years

 

All tied in together in the Chart of Nine Trends.

examine this chart with 100 year history of volcanism and earthquakes

The Bingo! Frequency Chart of Top Ten El Nino Events
area plot in portrait orientation by NOAA scientists
storeyboard file: topten_nino.gif
source files: http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/img/climate/research/1998/enso/ensotr2.gif
http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/climate/research/1998/enso/10elnino.html

This is a major BINGO! chart because it directly allows us to tie both El Nino extremes  and Global Warming trends directly to the warming of the World Ocean and the long term trends of acceleration in tectonic activity.  All this, of course, can be tied directly to the acceleration of the shifting of the poles which began in.

The connection between the top ten El Nino Events and the peaks in the rising trend of world volcanism is clearly obvious and is the most telling for it clearly points to the cause.  [see chart below]  The frequency of the strongest El Ninos is clearly increasing at an accelerating rate after 1950 in parallel with the rising trend line of world volcanism.  Most telling, the strongest El Nino's on this chart occur at or very close to a peak in the annual count of world volcanism.  There is not much lag between these phenomenon.

Connection with Hurricane trend

Connect with wobble frequency

Connect with wobble drift

 

 

The El Nino Bingo Chart:  Frequency Of Extreme Events Began Accelerating In 1960

http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/img/climate/research/1998/enso/ensotr2.gif

h can be more precisely defined.  For a more exact definition of how the Earth's crust is shifting, see the Wobble Storyboard.

N

finishes correlation of Cayce's "Changes In The Earth" to make

POST 1950.

and the "felt increase" in global warming,

THE WARMING OF THE OCEANS......

ALL THIS ON CAYCE'S DATES!!!

All tied in together in the Chart of Nine Trends.


Trend of Increase In Hurricane Activity 1973-2004
area plot in portrait orientation by
 

 

 


Trend of Increase In The Frequency Of The Wobble 1973-2004
scatter plot in portrait orientation by
 

 


Trend of Increase In The Drift Of The Wobble 1900-2006
scatter plot in portrait orientation by MWM
 

 


Trend of World Earthquake Activity 1973-2004
area plot in landscape orientation by MWM
storyboard file: World_Earthquake_Trend-1973-2005.jpg
storyboard file: World_Earthquake_Trend-1973-2005.jpg
for model source data and assumptions: 
"Vortex_Trends_Summary.xls"

This chart clearly and accurately reflects the real trend since 1973 of an increase in world earthquake activity for all events greater than 2.5 in magnitude.

After a detailed study of earthquake databases, the year 1973 was selected as the earliest year from which a valid trend line could be drawn. By the mid 1970's, it was clear that the nations of the world were sufficiently wired to detect seismic events to record with reasonable accuracy all events greater than 2.5 in magnitude. By excluding all smaller events, a valid trend line, most likely with no error  greater than 10%, could be drawn and the result is this one.

The significance of this chart is simple but of fundamental importance to all Earth sciences. It establishes that the rate of shape-shifting of the Earth and the motion of the tectonic plates has been increasing since about 1973-1978.  (Quake activity could have been increasing from an earlier year, but we have no easy way to establish the window).   Unlike the "hockey-stick" graphs of the Global Warming reports, which show statistical illusions created by truncating the scales of the graphs to visually magnify the increase in heat gain, THIS CHART IS DRAWN IN AN ABSOLUTE SCALE AND REALLY DOES SHOW A HUGE GAIN IN QUAKE ACTIVITY.

Frankly, this is the Prime Signal for revealing the changes in the Earth.   As the Earth's crust moves, it fractures and releases heat.  All the other phenomenon follow.  So the key issue is equally simple and fundamental:  why is the Earth's crust moving at an accelerated rate since at least the early 1970's?


Trend of World Volcanic Activity 1973-2004
area plot in landscape orientation by MWM
storyboard file: World_Earthquake_Trend-1973-2005.jpg
for model source data and assumptions: 
"Vortex_Trends_Summary.xls"

Since the only possible connection between the Wobble Cycle and El Nino must be "heat" flow from the Earth, we must look for heat flow from volcanism which correlates with the same rhythm.  If we find a parallel in activity, we have the basis of a new global science.  Indeed, there are parallels aplenty.  We have the basis of an entirely new science of geophysics.  To begin such an inquiry, a few such charts are provided in a section titled "El Nino & Volcanism". 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 


Trend of Warming In The World Ocean 1973-2004

 

examine this chart with Levitus' graph of the Warming of the World Ocean

examine this chart with the 9 Trends.....below

 

 

 

Trend of Volcanism Inferred From Sulfur In The Ice
Of Northern Greenland 1800-2000
line graph in landscape orientation from "Pages" by Fischer et al, 2006
icecore_sulfate_1800_2000.gif

H. Fischer, D. Wagenbach, J. Kipfstuhl"Sulfate And Nitrate Firn Concentrations On The Greenland Ice Sheet. 2. Temporal Anthropogenic Deposition Changes"; Journal Of Geophysical Research, 1998, Vol. 103, D17, pp. 21935-21942 (23 ref.); American Geophysical Union [Fischer H., Wagenbach D., Kipfstuhl J]

 

Sulfur and Nitrate Ions In Ice Core
From Northern Greenland 1800-2000
 

This is probably the single most important graph for confirming Mandeville's findings about the threefold trend of increase in world volcanism.  This is a completely independent source using a completely different type of data to quantify the annual rate of volcanism  It is not yet known yet, to what extent Northern Greenland Ice Core can measure worldwide volcanism, but a few researchers have found signals of Equatorial eruptions in the ice cores of both Greenland and Antarctica.  Thus this would appear to be an important source of data about at least a major portion of world volcanism if not all of it.  The trend here, though it may be only crudely approximate, as is Mandeville's, is none the less a real trend, as it Mandeville's "counting" of ash emissions.  The advantage of this graph is that it is a more objective data series.  It does not depend upon the reports of volcano watchers over a long period of time nor how well many subjective reports and records were extrapolated.  This data was "frozen" permanently into the ice.  Since the time horizon is only for 200 years, this record is pristine as ice cores go.

From this record we can easily see that volcanic activity during the 19th century was nearly a constant, began to rise about 1880-1910 (during which many North American volcanoes had minor eruptions), was nearly constant again from about 1908 through to1940 though showing a minor decline in the average, which conforms quite well with the Mandeville Count, and then began to move up at a rather brisk rate from about 1945 to 1975, more than doubling the average activity, then declining again by about 25% to through to 1990.   The Mandeville Count shows the same basic rise and fall, but far more richly in detail than this highly smoothed graph trend line.  The main logical difference is that the curve of the Mandeville Count after 1945 is offset to the right by about 5-7 years

edit note:  cite researchers with signals on both poles.

cite sources of graph and researchers


This Analysis of Siple Dome Ice Core: Carbonyl Sulfide (COS), Methyl Chloride (CH3Cl), and Methyl Bromide (CH3Br)

 

The last interglacial and beyond - A northwest Greenland deep ice core drilling project Greenland ice cores provide a compelling picture of the abrupt, millennial- scale, climatic flips of the last glacial period (Dansgaard- Oeschger events). Understanding the cause of these events, and their implications for future change, is one of the hottest topics in climate studies, with signifi cant policy implications. However, the existing Greenland cores are defi cient in one important respect. The last interglacial (Eemian) has proved to be a diffi cult target; even in the most recent NorthGRIP core (NGRIP Members, 2004), the Eemian record was incomplete due to basal melting.The last interglacial and beyond

(1) Institut für Umweltphysik, University of Heidelberg, Heidelberg, ALLEMAGNE
(2) Alfred-Wegener-Institut für Polar-und Meeresforschung, Bremerhaven, ALLEMAGNE
 

Intercomparison of three new chemical ice core records from northern Greenland (covering the time span from approximately 1500 A.D. to present) with previously published records for southern and central Greenland reveals a uniform timing of anthropogenic changes in sulfate and nitrate fim concentrations over the entire ice sheet. The anthropogenic sulfate increase started around 1890, was interrupted by a transient decrease in the 1930s, and has d a major increase since 1950. Since the late 1970s though, a significant 30% decline in Greenland sulfate firn levels can be documented. The maximum anthropogenic increase in northern Greenland sulfate firn concentrations (up to 200-230 ppb) is 2-3 times larger than in southern and central Greenland. Nitrate records show an essentially steady increase since 1950 and, documented for the first time, a slight reduction during most recent years. Maximum nitrate firn levels of 100-130 ppb exceed the preindustrial background by 100% all over the Greenland ice sheet. Comparison with anthropogenic SO[2] and NO[x] emission records indicates that the major increase in sulfate firn concentrations since 1950 can be attributed to Eurasian sources, while firn levels during the first half of this century appear to be dominated by North American emissions. A stronger North American source contribution is indicated over the entire 20th century in the case of nitrate. Applying a macroscopic deposition model separate time series for wet and dry deposition were derived which revealed a close correspondence of wet deposited sulfate with the timing of U.S. emissions, while the temporal evolution of Eurasian emissions is mainly reflected in the dry sulfate deposition record. During this century wet sulfate deposition increased by a factor of two while the total dry sulfate deposition flux increased by more than 500%. Wet and dry nitrate deposition both increased by 100% during the same period.

 

added from another source

Chemistry and Dynamics of Atmospheric Oxidation of Volcanic Sulfur

 

Summary

 

2006-08-23

 

 

 This dataset contains chemical measurements of volcanic sulfate deposits in

 Antarctic snow, in a collaborative project between South Dakota State

 University (SDSU, Jihong Cole-Dai, PI) and University of California, San Diego

 (UCSD, Mark Thiemens, PI). The sulfate deposits of several major volcanic

 eruptions over the last 1000 years were found, by means of ion chromatographic

 analysis of major ions, in a few large snow blocks and a number of South Pole

 ice cores retrieved in 2004-2005. The volcanic events include: Pinatubo (1991),

 Cerro Hudson (1991), Tambora (1815), Unknown (1809), Kuwae (1453/54), and

 Unknown (1259). The volcanic sulfate was extracted from the snow blocks and ice

 cores, concentrated, and subsequently analyzed by isotope mass spectrometry for

 multiple oxygen (18O/16O, 17O/16O) and sulfur (33S, 34S, 36S) isotope

 composition, which is used to infer the atmospheric, and stratospheric in

 particular, chemical processes and dynamics of the oxidation of volcanic sulfur

 dioxide to sulfate.

 

 The dataset is organized by volcanic events in the snow and ice samples. For

 each event, the following data are included: (1) the continuous record of

 sulfate concentration along the depth of the core section in which the event is

 located, (2) the total mass of volcanic sulfate in the extracted sample(s) of

 the event, (3) isotopic composition of each volcanic sulfate sample and its

 associated background sulfate sample.

 

Name:  ROB BAUER

Phone: 303 492 2378

Email: bauerr at kryos.colorado.edu

Contact Address:

U.S. Antarctic Data Coordination Center

University of Colorado

CIRES 449 UCB

City: Boulder

Province or State: CO

Postal Code: 80309

Country: USA

 

http://gcmd.gsfc.nasa.gov/KeywordSearch/Metadata.do?Portal=GCMD&KeywordPath=%5BParameters%3A+Topic%3D%27ATMOSPHERE%27%2C+Term%3D%27ATMOSPHERIC+CHEMISTRY%2FSULFUR+COMPOUNDS%27%5D&NumericId=22554&MetadataView=Full&MetadataType=0&lbnode=gcmd3b

 

 

 

 

      http://www.colorado.edu/news/releases/2004/262.html

News Release            

 

North Greenland Ice Core Reveals Gradual, Abrupt Climate Swings

Sept. 7, 2004

 

Note to Editors: Contents embargoed until 1 p.m. on Sept. 8. James White is reachable at James.White@colorado.edu or at the Crowne Plaza Christchurch Hotel, New Zealand, at 643-365-7799. Christchurch time is 16 hours ahead of U.S. EDT.

 

A new, undisturbed Greenland ice deep-core record going back 123,000 years shows the Eemian period prior to the last glacial period was slightly warmer than the present day before it gradually cooled and sent Earth into an extended deep freeze.

 

The nearly two-mile long ice core was drilled over eight years as part of the North Greenland Ice Core Project, or NGRIP, and contains annual layers of ice compressed from 123,000 years of snowfall. Although two other deep-ice cores were retrieved from Greenland in the 1990s, those show skewed climate records from the beginning of the last interglacial roughly 115,000 years ago because of ice layer "folding" near bedrock.

 

"We now have a highly detailed ice record from the Northern Hemisphere of how Earth moved from the last interglacial to the glacial period," said University of Colorado at Boulder Professor James White, a U.S. principal investigator for the international NGRIP effort. "This might help us understand what to be on the lookout for in the future, assuming there is another glacial period waiting in the wings."

 

Led by project leader Dorthe Dahl-Jensen of the University of Copenhagen's Niels Bohr Institute, NGRIP is an international project with participants in Denmark, Germany, Japan, the United States, Switzerland, France, Sweden, Belgium and Iceland. NGRIP is funded by participating countries, including the National Science Foundation.

 

The new NGRIP ice core record indicates Eemian-period temperatures, over the polar regions at least, were stable and roughly 9 degrees Fahrenheit warmer than temperatures in the present interglacial. The transition from the Eemian into the most recent glacial period was slow and gradual, marked by general cooling and deterioration of the climate over several thousand years, according to the study.

 

A paper on the subject will appear in the Sept. 9 issue of Nature.

 

In late June, the NGRIP team recovered what appear to be plant remnants nearly two miles below the surface between the bottom of the glacial ice and the bedrock. Researchers said the possible organic material recovered from the slushy, reddish ice looks like it may be ancient pine needles, bark or blades of grass.

 

Thought to date to several million years ago before the Pleistocene smothered Greenland in ice, the material will be analyzed in several laboratories. The research team also is analyzing the reddish basal water recovered from beneath the NGRIP core for indications of microscopic life forms that might have survived, said Dahl-Jensen.

 

Each yearly record of ice can reveal past temperatures and precipitation levels, the content of ancient atmospheres and even evidence for the timing, direction and magnitude of distant storms, fires and volcanic eruptions. The cores are cylinders of ice four inches in diameter that were brought to the surface in 11.5-foot lengths, said White, a fellow of CU-Boulder's Institute of Arctic and Alpine Research.

 

The NGRIP ice core also provided evidence of air temperatures jumping 9 degrees Fahrenheit in just five decades roughly 115,000 years ago, just prior to the slide from the Eemian into the glacial period. "This is one of those classic, abrupt changes we have seen before in Greenland ice core records, where temperatures can shift dramatically in less than a human lifetime," said White.

 

In addition, the NGRIP core shows the air temperature jumping about 18 F in roughly 50 years about 10,500 years ago as Earth was emerging from the last glacial period into the present Holocene interglacial epoch, said CU-Boulder doctoral student Trevor Popp of INSTAAR, chief driller on the 2004 NGRIP effort.

 

"This jump also was seen in the GISP 2, GRIP and Dye 3 ice core records from Greenland, showing it was not just a wiggle on a graph, but was really a large, rapid and significant climate event," said Popp.

 

The isotopes in the NGRIP ice and four Greenland ice cores drilled in recent years also indicate while the northern part of the Greenland ice sheet was fairly stable during the Eemian, the ice sheet in southern Greenland may have been dramatically thinner or even nonexistent, said White.

 

In addition, the researchers also found unexpectedly large temperature differences between the NGRIP core and two other cores drilled 220 miles away. The evidence suggests colder temperatures at the site of the NGRIP drilling in the distant past, perhaps caused by different air masses influencing the climates of two sites.

 

"If there is a trigger that caused Earth to slide into the last glacial period, it is a slow trigger and there is no smoking gun," said White. "It's curious and remarkable to me that the last glacial period appears to have begun without any real fireworks."

 

The NGRIP drilling site is located roughly in the middle of Greenland at an elevation of about 9,850 feet. The temperature in the subsurface trenches where ice-core scientists worked is minus 22 degrees Fahrenheit.

 

Another CU-Boulder graduate student, Annalisa Schilla, also participated in the 2004 NGRIP field season.

 

Images, information and additional press contacts for the NGRIP effort are available at http://www.glaciology.gfy.ku.dk/ngrip/index_eng.htm.

 

Contact: James White, (303) 492-5494

link to ice data

ftp://ftp.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/paleo/icecore/greenland/summit/gisp2/chem/detionb.txt

more added in general about sulfur dating

Drew Budner and Jihong Cole-Dai: "The Number and Magnitude of Large Explosive Volcanic Eruptions Between 904 and 1865 A.D.: Quantitative Evidence From a New South Pole Ice Core";

Department of Chemistry and Biochemistry, South Dakota State University, Brookings, South Dakota

 

Pages – Past Global Changes

http://www.pages.unibe.ch/

 

Geosystems Climate

http://geoclimate.ou.edu/

 

Earth Pages

http://www.earth-pages.com/resource.asp

 

Greenhouse Online

http://www.ghgonline.org/

 

GISP2 major ion concentrations in parts per billion

(ppb) by mass. 

 

The last interglacial and beyond - A northwest Greenland deep ice core drilling project Greenland ice cores provide a compelling picture of the abrupt, millennial- scale, climatic flips of the last glacial period (Dansgaard- Oeschger events). Understanding the cause of these events, and their implications for future change, is one of the hottest topics in climate studies, with signifi cant policy implications. However, the existing Greenland cores are defi cient in one important respect. The last interglacial (Eemian) has proved to be a diffi cult target; even in the most recent NorthGRIP core (NGRIP Members, 2004), the Eemian record was incomplete due to basal melting.  

The Number and Magnitude of Large Explosive Volcanic Eruptions Between 904

and 1865 A.D.: Quantitative Evidence From a New South Pole Ice Core

Drew Budner and Jihong Cole-Dai

Department of Chemistry and Biochemistry, South Dakota State University, Brookings, South Dakota

 

Due

to the atmospheric circulation patterns, the volcanic

aerosols deposited in Antarctica originate either from high

southern latitude (Antarctic continent and subantarctic

islands) and mid southern latitude (South America and the

South Pacific) eruptions or from large eruptions in low latitudes

of either hemisphere. As a result, volcanic records

from Antarctic ice cores in general cover volcanoes in the

Southern Hemisphere and the low latitudes.

 

 

 

The Number and Magnitude of Large Explosive Volcanic Eruptions Between 904

and 1865 A.D.: Quantitative Evidence From a New South Pole Ice Core

Drew Budner and Jihong Cole-Dai

Department of Chemistry and Biochemistry, South Dakota State University, Brookings, South Dakota

 

Due

to the atmospheric circulation patterns, the volcanic

aerosols deposited in Antarctica originate either from high

southern latitude (Antarctic continent and subantarctic

islands) and mid southern latitude (South America and the

South Pacific) eruptions or from large eruptions in low latitudes

of either hemisphere. As a result, volcanic records

from Antarctic ice cores in general cover volcanoes in the

Southern Hemisphere and the low latitudes.

 

 

 

Pages – Past Global Changes

http://www.pages.unibe.ch/

 

Geosystems Climate

http://geoclimate.ou.edu/

 

Earth Pages

http://www.earth-pages.com/resource.asp

 

Greenhouse Online

http://www.ghgonline.org/

 

GISP2 major ion concentrations in parts per billion

(ppb) by mass. 

 

The last interglacial and beyond

- A northwest Greenland deep ice core

drilling project

Greenland ice cores provide a compelling

picture of the abrupt, millennial-

scale, climatic flips of the

last glacial period (Dansgaard-

Oeschger events). Understanding the

cause of these events, and their implications

for future change, is one of the

hottest topics in climate studies, with

signifi cant policy implications. However,

the existing Greenland cores are

defi cient in one important respect. The

last interglacial (Eemian) has proved to

be a diffi cult target; even in the most

recent NorthGRIP core (NGRIP Members,

2004), the Eemian record was

incomplete due to basal melting.

 

CONTRIBUTOR: Caspar Ammann, NCAR 
IGBP PAGES/WDCA CONTRIBUTION SERIES NUMBER: 2003-049

SUGGESTED DATA CITATION: Ammann, C.M., et al., 2003,
Monthly Volcanic Forcing Data for Climate Modeling 1890-1999, 
IGBP PAGES/World Data Center for Paleoclimatology 
Data Contribution Series # 2003-049.
NOAA/NGDC Paleoclimatology Program, Boulder CO, USA.

ORIGINAL REFERENCE: Ammann, C.M., G.A. Meehl, W.M. Washington, and 
C. S. Zender, 2003, A monthly and latitudinally varying volcanic forcing 
dataset in simulations of 20th century climate, 
Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 30, No. 12, 1657 (June 2003). 

 

 

 

The Nine Major World Trends
Which Are Changing The Earth 1875-2005

 

The story of

 

 

 

Correlations Between El Nino & Selected Volcanoes
1875-2005

 

The story of