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Earth Changes 2003





How accurate are earthquake predictions?

Earthquake Predictions for 2003

For 2003 as a whole, earthquake activity should be higher than previous years, becoming a progressive upward part in the 60 year upward trend in over-all seismic activity. A greater than average number of 7.0 quakes is likely and the total numbers of quakes above 3.0 should also be higher. Some clairvoyants believe that the increase in tectonic activity, including earthquakes, could be as high as 30% during 2003.

As discovered and proven in recent years by MW Mandeville, this increased activity is caused by an unexplained acceleration in the drift of the average location of the spin axis. As the spin axis shifts its average location from off its previous center, the spinning Earth is forced to compensate by changing its shape ever bit so much more by warping the Earth’s tectonic plates at a faster rate. This increase in the warping of the Earth’s surface directly causes new earthquake patterns in areas which have not had them very frequently and it also causes the overall frequencies of earthquakes over 3.0 in magnitude to increase. Since 1960 there has been at least an overall increase of 400 percent in the number of earthquakes over 3.0 in magnitude.

Some predictors believe that the increase in tectonic activity could be as high as 30% during 2003. Frankly this seems rather large to this predictor, but it is true that there have been sudden escalations in both earthquake and volcanic activity during the 20th century which have approached this rate of increase over a period of a couple of years.

It is very difficult to determine at the moment what the rate of change is in the drift of the spin axis (the average location of the North Pole) because of its complex dynamic spiraling motion which takes 6.5 years to complete in one cycle of what is known as Chandler’s Wobble. Preliminary estimates made by MW Mandeville show at least a 10% annual increase in the rate of the drift of the spin axis (the North Pole) since the mid 1990’s and this progressive annual rate of change should drive an annual increase in both earthquakes and volcanic activity. More solid numbers can be computed after the completion of the current wobble cycle, which will end in the last quarter of 2003.

Can more specific predictions be made for any given time period? Yes. Though this area is far from an exact science, there are definitely "windows" each month during which greater or lesser seismic activity can be expected. These seismic windows are known as syzygy windows because they are directly related to two exact orbital positions of the Moon relative to the Earth and the Sun, plus the distance of the Moon from the Earth.

A five day "syzygy window" occurs during the Full or the New Moon period. During these moments, the Moon is in a straight line with the Earth and the Sun, on the same side as the Sun during the New Moon and on the side of the Earth away from the Sun during the Full Moon. Seismic activity increases substantially during these times.

At these two moments there will likely be a significant increase in seismic activity. During the New Moon, the Sun and Moon gravity fields combine forces and tend to pull the crust upwards directly under the Moon while they pull the crust in a Westerly direction. This is the best time, while the tectonic plates move a bit more than usual, to look for serious quakes along tectonic subduction zones. During the Full Moon, the Sun and Moon gravity fields oppose each other and tend to pull the Earth’s crust apart from opposite sides and work unevenly on the imbalances in the mass of the Earth. Expect a lot of extra movement in all of the slip fault zones of the Earth

Accordingly, a polar shift is most likely to occur during this time when the cosmic forces are causing an increase in the tempo of the jiggle in motion of the spin axis. Expect a lot of increase in the magnitude of quakes during the Perigee of the Moon, which is the moment when the Moon is as at its closest approach to the Earth during its 28 day orbit. Since the Moon’s distance from the Earth varies by as much as 15%, the monthly change in the influence of the Moon’s gravity on earthquakes is quite significant. The number of large earthquakes increase substantially during the three day period of Perigee.

There are also some "windows" during the year which are exceptionally potent for the type of major quakes which are so destructive. When Perigee windows combine with New or Full Moon syzygy windows, the effect on seismic activity is quite large and huge quakes (6.5 plus) tend substantially more often than not to occur during these combinations.

These syzygy window times and there combination with Perigee windows are all shown on the Earth Changes 2003 Calendar. The most significant syzygy periods are outlined below.

The originator of the use of syzygy windows for predicting earthquakes is Jim Berkland, who is now a retired geologist living in California. The windows which are computed in this chart are simplified for easy display and they are often shorter in length than the methods Berkland uses for computing syzygy windows for earthquake predictions.

There are some areas in which major earthquakes have occurred as late as three days before or after the Full or New Moon. So the five day zones spotlighted on this calendar are not always adequate. Berkland also uses a variety of other signals for detecting the potentials for a major quake in certain areas. So use these windows on this Earth Changes Calendar to spotlight the key moments in the month, then go and look at Jim Berkland’s website at http://www.syzygyjob.com to get additional prediction details for any given month. Also at his website are links to an online forum where people are recording their personal predictions of coming earthquakes.

During the first part of the year, the Full Moon Syzygies will be more potent than the New Moon Syzygies. New Moon Syzygies will become milder than normal. Perigee windows align up very close to the Full Moon Window for four months:

February 16-19: A Lunar Perigee comes within about 60 hours of a Full Moon to create the first highly dangerous syzygy window of the year. But this period will be surpassed by the next one.

March 17-20: A Lunar Perigee comes within 31 hours of a Full Moon to create a highly focused syzygy window which should create a higher than average number of major quakes.

April 16-18: But wait, they can get worse and indeed this Lunar Perigee is within 9 hours of the Full Moon in just about the closest possible approach of the Moon to the Earth at a distance of 357157 km. It doesn’t really get much closer. Expect this and the next one to be the worst two Full Moons of the year for tectonic activity.

May 14-17: About as the previous month, with the Moon approaching to within 357, 448 km.

June 12-15: A little less dangerous than the preceding two Full Moons because Perigee and Full Moon times are now sliding apart.

Through July and August, Perigee and Full Moon times now are spreading apart more and more rapidly, progressively reducing the potency of Full Moon Syzygies. This of course also means that Perigee is beginning to move closer and closer to the New Moon Window. Thus New Moons will begin after a few cycles to eclipse Full Moons in their potency. This also means that the Perigee Window will create its own increase in seismic activity, creating three spikes of earthquake activity during the next two months.

September 25-29: New Moon and Perigee line up within 26 hours of each other to create another dangerous Syzygy. Naturally, the following October Full Moon will be tepid by comparison.

October 24-27: New Moon and Perigee line up within 21 hours for an even more highly focused and dangerous New Moon. The following Full Moon will be tepid.

November 22-24: Does it get worse? Yes. New Moon and Perigee line up virtually dead on at 31 minutes apart. This may be the very worst New Moon Syzygy of the year. If 2003 has one especially gruesome killer quake, it is more likely than not to be during this Syzygy.

December 22-24: This one may not be quite as rough but with Perigee and New Moon within 20 hours of each other, this is still an extremely potent syzygy.


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